Categories
Options
Keir was the toolmaker’s son – politicalbetting.com
Keir was the toolmaker’s son – politicalbetting.com
Reminder to people who spend all day discussing politics that normal people exist https://t.co/5djsOfKyi0
0
Reminder to people who spend all day discussing politics that normal people exist https://t.co/5djsOfKyi0
Comments
"Well, obviously, this is not meant to be taken literally. It refers to any manufacturers of industrial products."
"See? If you hadn't been going on, we'd have heard that, Big Nose."
*Whether the bosses or the actual folk on the shop floor, though. The term is ambiguous, like much occupational terminology in English, in the sense that (say) Michelle Mone made underwear, but she didn't use a sewing machine much of her working time as a company director, or so I assume. And in any case, people change their work with time. I can well believe that someone who was a shop floor worker when his son was at school could own his own business a decade or two later.
Then the chap will hand over the docs to Starmer showing that Starmer Senior was a co founder of Foxtons and designed the branding on their minis.
It will be a real tearjerker.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4831885#Comment_4831885
(Almost - my version was better obvs.)
I prefer the Aretha Franklin version of Son of a preacher man over the Dusty Springfield version.
(Some just get there sooner.)
Research indicates that consumers do not retain an advertising message until they have seen it at least three times... and of course, if you run an ad three times, then only a tiny fraction of your desired audience will be in the right place at the right time to see the message 3 times. So you run it ten times. A day. That's how advertising works.
People who spend their entire day obsessing over politics will hear Starmer use his "toolmaker" line a half a dozen times a day. Ditto Sunak and the 2k line he was pushing at the start of the campaign. Political obsessives will see these messages hundreds of times. The general public might only see them three or four.
A good advertising campaign will attempt to reach 80% of the target audience with its message, so 11% to 27% is actually pretty piss poor. Over to Roger to explain the importance of good creative rather than just shouting the same thing at your audience over and over...
As long as he doesn't murder a puppy live on the hustings, he'll be PM once the vote is in.
Once people find out he's a lawyer his stock should go down, though!
But I inagine Biden could do exactly the same for Trump
https://www.instagram.com/realdonaldtrump/reel/C8LGmVhMvZe/
cheesemakerstoolmakersI suspect Starmer will run a Gordon Brown 2 type government though as his diehard Labour father would have wished, it will not be Blairism revived once the Tory swing voters are safely in the ballot box for Labour
I confess to having a bit of a wobble last night when the third poll in two days came out with Labour in the 30s. But by the end of the evening common sense had returned: Cons now averaging 19% in recent polls, Starmer's personal rating on the rise, tactical voting giving the LDs a boost...
All is well. Relax...
The clips of Biden just staring off into space, zoning out, trying to sit down when there isn't a chair, etc, are far more devastating IMHO.
The guy is clearly past it, but then again, as you point out, so is Trump.
Not sure Starmer's able to do comedy, mind.
Especially since the audience had laughed at him bringing it uo earlier on.
Then you grin and shrug when they laugh again.
Sorry to carry this over FPT but just to mention to @TSE and others the wording in the YouGov data tables:
Westminster Voting Intention
[Headline voting intention projected by YouGov MRP model]
To repeat, this isn't a standard opinion poll and shouldn't be treated as such. It's an extrapolation from the MRP model which is a different thing.
It’s pretty much dead now. The question is whether it has the space and time to renew in opposition or whether it continues to dwindle and decline (or the GE kills it off completely).
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-biden-neck-and-neck-06-09-2024/
https://youtu.be/s2n87YKSjrA?si=0P9j_HUBhkkf7u_O&t=146
"My father was a toolmaker, and so, in a different way, was Boris Johnson's."
This is also interesting. Trump was - quite notably - the one living president who has always scoffed at the idea of UAPs/UFOs
He is changing his tune
https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1801379710406128079
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/14/russias-putin-outlines-conditions-for-peace-talks-with-ukraine.html
But its still a News at Ten story.
I think that’s a story of aspiration and hard work and compared to Keir Starmer, who had the advantage of being a white male, a triumph over bigotry.
At worst the public probably heard him say it a handful of times.
But there's also another, maybe more unconventional explanation, that I would try and go with. He might well be trying to rope in these kind of topics to encourage distrust in government and attract far-right loons, but he might also simultaneously be talking about genuinely convincing conversations he's had, with military people who might more often be his supporters.
numbertwelve said:
» show previous quotes
A shame about Raducanu. She gets a lot of flak which I think is really undeserved. I don’t blame her for making hay when the opportunities came through to her. I do think she has also been unlucky with injury but it’s also clear she was far from the finished article when she won the US Open and I think there is real resilience training needed. But hey, she doesn’t owe anything to anyone and she’s done something very few people will ever do in winning a tennis grand slam.
She is photogenic ( many of them look like the back end of a horse ) and the sponsors will be doing all right out of her. Good luck to her.
Buttigieg is the best President the US will never have, because most of America simply won't vote for a gay man. Although in many respects, I think his 'wine cave' gaffe - painting him as a coastal elite - was more damaging.
“Well yes, quite clearly he did.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/14/ukraine-russia-war-latest-news9/
“We can negotiate a ceasefire tomorrow” (If Ukranian soldiers withdraw on current boundaries, and Ukraine says they’ll never join NATO).
“The G7 security agreements are ‘just pieces of paper’.” (They’re commitments to billions in military aid).
“Western ‘theft’ of Russian assets shows that ‘anyone’ could be next” (Anyone who invades another European country, maybe).
“I never planned to storm Kiev” (but the vehicles blown up in the original assault south from Chernobyl contained a load of military #1 uniforms and large Russian flags).
He’s totally deranged.
It is good in a way that Putin has made some sort of ceasfire offer - it indicates that he might be concerned about the USA's latest weapons package to Ukraine. That's really what the West needs to do now - find something in Mother Hubbard's cupboard that scares Putin enough to threaten him with it, and make him come to the table with a half decent offer. We're not there yet but perhaps we're getting there.
These were made to the Russians - on the lines of "We will give up *some* of the territory we have conquered. We will not disarm or allow any foreigners to touch Japanese soil. You will help up rearm. Then we will jointly attack the US in a decades time."
The Americans were reading all this, through their ciphers breaks...
In that way Trump reflects America's id, the impuslive part of the brain driven by base instincts and desires. There is no real Trump, no real belief in anything - just a collection of what an American audience will howl at.
I do believe there will need to be some concessions from the Ukraine side, but how this can happen I don't know - certainly I can't imagine any scenario that isn't also somehow up problems for the future (the whole Azov Brigade thing is real).
This war cannot go on forever. It's not about appeasement, it's about stopping people getting killed. Even the vaguest talk of ceasefire, I have to hope is a positive step.
But Reform have overtaken the Tories in the latest poll. Surely that makes the Tories ‘Labour enablers’, and if they’re that terrified of the consequences of a Labour government, then it’s surely their solemn duty to step down and encourage all their voters to switch to Reform?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13528353/Tories-Penny-Mordaunt-brands-Nigel-Farage-Labour-enabler-warns-hell-make-easier-Keir-Starmer-PM-Reform-UK-leader-hits-says-Conservatives-deceived-voters-migration.html
If she had been charged that would have been a huge blow to the party and impacted their election chances .
Thankfully that black swan didn’t get off the ground .
That is unusual with a minor party vs the big two late in a campaign, but imo is where we are.
So I suspect the next move for Reform is up rather than down. I still predict a low ceiling - not above 20% - but in any case the direction of travel is just terrible for the Tories.
So you could remove them all in a few hours, leaving nothing behind except the cabling. Which was trenched, but not deeply. So a day or 2 work, and *nothing* would be left behind.
Riddle me this: How can localism be more important than the climate emergency to a Green politician? When they aren’t really all that green in the first place obviously.
Scratch a Green, find a Nimby.
The Greens should be all over this tech, surely? Oh wait...
It's very very apparent when he does not, when there's a serious point with no side rambling, self-aggrandizing, or over capitalisation.
Biden I'm sure it's a slick bunch of party operatives.
Thanks! The stroke was reasonably serious (4 days completely blotted out from my memory, but apparently I was in hospital), but it's left few physical marks - a tendency to want to sleep in the day now and then. Mentally it's left gaps when I'm tired - I was puzzling over the names of close relatives last night, which seem absolutely clear now - but I'm gradually returning to normal.
https://youtu.be/CI3vYqMKSU0?si=VaPCBPhbYYq_3ar-
It needs Mick West on the case. He's the best debunker in town
Surprisingly strong performance from Tories in Greenwich and an unsurprisingly strong performance from Scottish Labour in Clydebank. Discussion thread with figures here:
https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/18941/local-council-elections-13th-june
The media could have reported that there was a surprise where one of the four polls yesterday had a reform lead over the Tories however the other three had Tories ahead of reform.
But the media have run and focussed on the one poll.
Now it doesn’t absolve Sunak and the Tories of being dismal but how things are reported can have a massive sway - put it this way, if for arguments sake, this one poll snowballed and led to a crazy situation where reform became the opposition most people in the political media would be having the vapours about how terrible it is that so many people are racists, like Brexit all over again.
They won’t however think - “why did we give such prominence to Farage and give him and his party a boost and a status they didn’t warrant just because in our little pathetic game playing politics media world we love a wild story rather than sober politics.”
Lab 43 Con 19 Ref 16
Lab 37 Con 18 Ref 19 -- this is only one people are talking about
Lab 42 Con 18 Ref 17
Lab 43 Con 20 Ref 16
Of course, I understand why:
dog bites man
man bites dog -- this is the only one people talk about (apart from Leon, for whom dog bites man is bowel-loosening excitement)
dog bites man
dog bites man
But most newsworthy is not the same as most accurate snapshot of reality.
I'll say that again, because it needs to be understood much more widely and instinctively:
Newsworthiness is not the same as accuracy
I remember the exact moment I realised Trump was going to win, I was conducting a focus group in New Jersey in early 2016, and the topic of Trump came up unprompted, and people started talking about how he was their guy, how he spoke their language, how different he was to conventional politicians. IIRC I bet on him then at 50/1, but also cashed out at 5/1 after the first Presidential debate because I didn't think anyone could take him seriously as president of the free world after that. How wrong I was.
And when his candidate would visit, he'd come along
When they gathered 'round and started canvassin’
That's when Keir would take me votin’
Through the hustings, we'd go walkin'
Then, he'd look into my eyes
Lord knows, to my surprise.
The only boy who could ever reach me
Was the son of a toolmaker man
The only boy who could ever teach me
Was the son of a toolmaker man
Yes, he was, he was
Ooh, yes, he was, uh
I think the weighting process is critical and it would be helpful (though it'll never happen) to determine how the sample has been weighted and on what criteria.
Are YouGov suggesting other pollsters are over-sampling Labour voters and under-representing LDs and Reform? It's a theory which we'll know more about in three weeks.
The other thing was the level of Don't Knows (15%) which runs well ahead of other pollsters (around 10%).
It's the Tories turn, and its their first turn in at least fifty years to get that treatment, so not much sympathy given they have enabled and worked with the press to create this environment in the first place.