politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The week’s Local By-Election Results : Gains for SNP, UKIP

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy Typical Sugar comment, though he is clearly more of a Brown than a Miliband man

Norm said:

Another week of perfectly respectable local polling for the Tories bar Aberdeenshire. Where is the evidence of the Labour lead beloved of Populus and the other dodgy pollsters?

Ukip will be happy as well.

Itajai said:

In the HIllingdon ward in 2010 on the same day as the GE Labour were ahead by 1%. Yesterday they were ahead by 1%.

http://www.hillingdon.gov.uk/article/19791/Charville-ward-results-2010

david_herdson said:

another_richard said:

With usual warnings about anecdotes, the comments I've heard during the last day about Mitchell have been universally taking pleasure at his humiliation. Even from those who know the full story about the police misconduct.

Politicians are not popular.

This may lead to a general lowering of incumbency votes.

Except that the alternative to one career politician is invariably another career politician.

MikeSmithson said:

Norm said:

Another week of perfectly respectable local polling for the Tories bar Aberdeenshire. Where is the evidence of the Labour lead beloved of Populus and the other dodgy pollsters?

Ukip will be happy as well.

Please don't call any pollster "dodgy". They are applying their methodology and you simply cannot compare 30% turnout local elections when you are selecting a councillor with general elections. If you could then I would have been elected an MP in 1992.

In an interview with BBC Newsnight, Lord Tebbit said: "Well one test I would use is to ask them on which side their fathers or grandfathers or whatever fought in the Second World War. And so you'll find that the Poles and the Czechs and the Slovaks were all on the right side. And so that's a pretty good test isn’t it? Perhaps we'll even manage to teach them to play cricket over the years."

MikeSmithson said:

Norm said:

Another week of perfectly respectable local polling for the Tories bar Aberdeenshire. Where is the evidence of the Labour lead beloved of Populus and the other dodgy pollsters?

Ukip will be happy as well.

Please don't call any pollster "dodgy". They are applying their methodology and you simply cannot compare 30% turnout local elections when you are selecting a councillor with general elections. If you could then I would have been elected an MP in 1992.

OblitusSumMe said:

MikeSmithson said:

Norm said:

Another week of perfectly respectable local polling for the Tories bar Aberdeenshire. Where is the evidence of the Labour lead beloved of Populus and the other dodgy pollsters?

Ukip will be happy as well.

Please don't call any pollster "dodgy". They are applying their methodology and you simply cannot compare 30% turnout local elections when you are selecting a councillor with general elections. If you could then I would have been elected an MP in 1992.

Unless we see a "Great Convergence" in the opinion polling then one or other of the pollsters are going to be left looking a bit silly, as per Angus Reid at GE2010. Populus are definitely out on something of a limb at the moment, but perhaps they will be vindicated?

This huge spread does do one thing worthy of note. It allows partisans on either side to find a poll to reassure them. Other people's confirmation bias is a rich vein of opportunity for the astute political gambler who can keep a level head.

madasafish said:

another_richard said:

With usual warnings about anecdotes, the comments I've heard during the last day about Mitchell have been universally taking pleasure at his humiliation. Even from those who know the full story about the police misconduct.

Politicians are not popular.

This may lead to a general lowering of incumbency votes.

Mitchell is a classic case of "I'm an MP so superior to you". Total arrogance in his approach to the police and in his libel suit..

See also Emily Thornberry as a "I'm sneering at white trash who have patriotic feelings".

Our MPs are supposed to represent us plebs in Parliament. It would appear at least two thinks we are inferior beings to their rich and propertied selves.

(It's as moronic and short sighted as the French aristocracy in the days of Louis X1V "let them eat cake" stuff.)

I am not by any means a UKIP supporter but their comments about Westminster elites ring strangely true.

See also Michael Portillo who got treated as he deserved in 1997..(and I suggest became a nicer person afterwards)

stodge said:

Evening all

I'm also curious that those who get so animated in the defence of "British culture" have nothing to say about the latest import of Americana - "Black Friday". Do we need it - does it show the great British public in a positive light and are the likes of Tesco and the rest going to stump up for the extra Police costs they have caused ?

Itajai said:

AndyJS said:

Some parts of Uxbridge are drifting to Labour these days due to an increasing EM population.

Uxbridge, or the Hayes area of Hillingdon?

And now you know why Labour are so keen to import voters.

MikeSmithson said:

OblitusSumMe said:

MikeSmithson said:

Norm said:

Another week of perfectly respectable local polling for the Tories bar Aberdeenshire. Where is the evidence of the Labour lead beloved of Populus and the other dodgy pollsters?

Ukip will be happy as well.

Please don't call any pollster "dodgy". They are applying their methodology and you simply cannot compare 30% turnout local elections when you are selecting a councillor with general elections. If you could then I would have been elected an MP in 1992.

Unless we see a "Great Convergence" in the opinion polling then one or other of the pollsters are going to be left looking a bit silly, as per Angus Reid at GE2010. Populus are definitely out on something of a limb at the moment, but perhaps they will be vindicated?

This huge spread does do one thing worthy of note. It allows partisans on either side to find a poll to reassure them. Other people's confirmation bias is a rich vein of opportunity for the astute political gambler who can keep a level head.

In broad terms online pollsters produces higher aggregates for CON/LAB than the phone firms.

I can't work out what's driving the Populus figures although not so long ago they were one of the most pro-CON firms.

AndyJS said:

Some parts of Uxbridge are drifting to Labour these days due to an increasing EM population.

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy Typical Sugar comment, though he is clearly more of a Brown than a Miliband man

I'm not a big Sugar fan. I like the straight-talking Barrow boy style, but the actual content coming out of the mouth is pish. I appreciate he made his money, and well done to him, but fuck ups like the 'emailer phone' demonstrate no nous whatsoever these days.

dr_spyn said:

stodge said:

Itajai said:

Wonder what Emily Thornberry would have made of Black Friday

Well, I can't answer that and I'm sure you're not making any comparison. The points I would make about "Black Friday" are first that it's an imported piece of American culture (same as "Prom Nights"). We have a proud British culture and don't need this constant Americanisation of our lives.

Second, the good honest British tradition of clawing your neighbour's eyes out for a bargain has a place - it's called Boxing Day. We don't need to have it twice in the same year.

Third, it illustrates the degree to which we are still wedded to conspicuous consumption yet tainted with the sure-footed knowledge that we are getting a bargain. As we fight for that heavily-discounted gadget without which our lives would no longer be complete, do we ever wonder why the store is selling them at that price and, given the obvious demand, why they couldn't sell them at that price all the time ?

It's all about "the triumph of the deal" - my gadget is £150 cheaper than it was last week - I've got to get it NOW before the price goes up and I'll stand outside a packed Tesco's and fight complete strangers for it.

And some claim there are no values left (well, only the heavily discounted ones).

Perhaps the discounted sale goods could be placed in an colossal arena, with seating for 100,000 people, would be bargain hunters could be armed with axes, spears and swords.

RobD said:

The new Tebbit test:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11262132/Lord-Tebbit-announces-new-cricket-test-for-EU-countries.html

In an interview with BBC Newsnight, Lord Tebbit said: "Well one test I would use is to ask them on which side their fathers or grandfathers or whatever fought in the Second World War. And so you'll find that the Poles and the Czechs and the Slovaks were all on the right side. And so that's a pretty good test isn’t it? Perhaps we'll even manage to teach them to play cricket over the years."

dr_spyn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

stodge said:

Itajai said:

Wonder what Emily Thornberry would have made of Black Friday

Well, I can't answer that and I'm sure you're not making any comparison. The points I would make about "Black Friday" are first that it's an imported piece of American culture (same as "Prom Nights"). We have a proud British culture and don't need this constant Americanisation of our lives.

Second, the good honest British tradition of clawing your neighbour's eyes out for a bargain has a place - it's called Boxing Day. We don't need to have it twice in the same year.

Third, it illustrates the degree to which we are still wedded to conspicuous consumption yet tainted with the sure-footed knowledge that we are getting a bargain. As we fight for that heavily-discounted gadget without which our lives would no longer be complete, do we ever wonder why the store is selling them at that price and, given the obvious demand, why they couldn't sell them at that price all the time ?

It's all about "the triumph of the deal" - my gadget is £150 cheaper than it was last week - I've got to get it NOW before the price goes up and I'll stand outside a packed Tesco's and fight complete strangers for it.

And some claim there are no values left (well, only the heavily discounted ones).

Perhaps the discounted sale goods could be placed in an colossal arena, with seating for 100,000 people, would be bargain hunters could be armed with axes, spears and swords.

and the Queen gives thumbs up/down indication of whether or not the bargain hunters can keep what they have fought for.

Turn Black Friday into something more like The Hunger Games.

Release the hounds...

megalomaniacs4u said:

ROFL - BBC posted proof that the licence fee

a) Doesn't need inflationary increases
b) Should be halved at a minimum.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3jNgMzCEAEGJa3.jpg

dr_spyn said:

stodge said:

Itajai said:

Wonder what Emily Thornberry would have made of Black Friday

Well, I can't answer that and I'm sure you're not making any comparison. The points I would make about "Black Friday" are first that it's an imported piece of American culture (same as "Prom Nights"). We have a proud British culture and don't need this constant Americanisation of our lives.

Second, the good honest British tradition of clawing your neighbour's eyes out for a bargain has a place - it's called Boxing Day. We don't need to have it twice in the same year.

Third, it illustrates the degree to which we are still wedded to conspicuous consumption yet tainted with the sure-footed knowledge that we are getting a bargain. As we fight for that heavily-discounted gadget without which our lives would no longer be complete, do we ever wonder why the store is selling them at that price and, given the obvious demand, why they couldn't sell them at that price all the time ?

It's all about "the triumph of the deal" - my gadget is £150 cheaper than it was last week - I've got to get it NOW before the price goes up and I'll stand outside a packed Tesco's and fight complete strangers for it.

And some claim there are no values left (well, only the heavily discounted ones).

Perhaps the discounted sale goods could be placed in an colossal arena, with seating for 100,000 people, would be bargain hunters could be armed with axes, spears and swords.

david_herdson said:

another_richard said:

[David, w]hilst living in Hemsworth did you ever sample the joys of South Elmsall ?

This Mirror story helps explain the Labour to UKIP swing in the Yorkshire mining areas:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/next-christmas-jobs-offered-polish-4709994

Though the Mirror do manage to put an anti-Conservative slant on it.

I don't know South Elmsall all that well though I did visit briefly a couple of times. There isn't really anything in that article that surprises me much though.

Financier said:

Brent crude closes at $70

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Why isn't there an Asian Friday or a White Friday?

AndyJS said:

Apparently Nigeria is going to go bankrupt as a result of Brent crude being at $70 or less. Saudis won't be popular in the country.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AndyJS said:

Apparently Nigeria is going to go bankrupt as a result of Brent crude being at $70 or less. Saudis won't be popular in the country.

That's not the least of their worries:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-30250950

Financier said:

Brent crude closes at $70

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

dr_spyn said:

stodge said:

Itajai said:

Wonder what Emily Thornberry would have made of Black Friday

Well, I can't answer that and I'm sure you're not making any comparison. The points I would make about "Black Friday" are first that it's an imported piece of American culture (same as "Prom Nights"). We have a proud British culture and don't need this constant Americanisation of our lives.

Second, the good honest British tradition of clawing your neighbour's eyes out for a bargain has a place - it's called Boxing Day. We don't need to have it twice in the same year.

Third, it illustrates the degree to which we are still wedded to conspicuous consumption yet tainted with the sure-footed knowledge that we are getting a bargain. As we fight for that heavily-discounted gadget without which our lives would no longer be complete, do we ever wonder why the store is selling them at that price and, given the obvious demand, why they couldn't sell them at that price all the time ?

It's all about "the triumph of the deal" - my gadget is £150 cheaper than it was last week - I've got to get it NOW before the price goes up and I'll stand outside a packed Tesco's and fight complete strangers for it.

And some claim there are no values left (well, only the heavily discounted ones).

Perhaps the discounted sale goods could be placed in an colossal arena, with seating for 100,000 people, would be bargain hunters could be armed with axes, spears and swords.

and the Queen gives thumbs up/down indication of whether or not the bargain hunters can keep what they have fought for.

Turn Black Friday into something more like The Hunger Games.

stodge said:

foxinsoxuk said:

I lived in the States for five years in the Seventies, and we rather took to Thanksgiving as a holiday.

It is a rather glorified harvest festival, but a Turkey dinner with pumpkin pie and all the family getting together is a rather nice celebration. Much like Christmas without the commercialism.

My family kept it up for a few years after our return.

Those early colonials saw themselves as Englishmen abroad, and so Thankgiving has its roots in English Puritan traditions.

Apparently the "commercialism" is no more delayed than it is at Christmas. For Boxing Day, read Black Friday. A day of "a nice celebration" followed by urban warfare at the shopping centre.

Ho hum...

SquareRoot said:

Smarmeron said:

KentRising
"The coverage of people treading on their fellow citizens to get to a discount LCD TV chilled me. What has society become? Disgusting and vile, is what it's become."

Selfish and greedy, just as the god fearing right always wanted.

People have always been selfish and greedy, especially the plebs. its the only way they can enjoy themselves.

FalseFlag said:

Financier said:

david_herdson said:

another_richard said:

[David, w]hilst living in Hemsworth did you ever sample the joys of South Elmsall ?

This Mirror story helps explain the Labour to UKIP swing in the Yorkshire mining areas:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/next-christmas-jobs-offered-polish-4709994

Though the Mirror do manage to put an anti-Conservative slant on it.

I don't know South Elmsall all that well though I did visit briefly a couple of times. There isn't really anything in that article that surprises me much though.

The Mirror story shows how uncompetitive the UK has become globally and how we have paid ourselves too much for years.

It also reveals the major errors of the EU, how our benefit system is a disincentive for many to be employed.

Also many employers know that often a Polish worker has a better work ethic, is more reliable ad more likely to get out of bed on time.

Poland has less than half the GDP per capita than Britain. If you pay more you will get a higher standard of British worker. Good anecdote in a Farewell to Alms about the superiority of British to Polish workers.

AndyJS said:

rcs1000 said:

Financier said:

Brent crude closes at $70

Good news for energy importers - us, China, Europe. Bad news for the Middle East, Canada, Australia

Given that Canadian fracking is one of the causes of the dropping price, it's a bit ironic if they're losing out.

rcs1000 said:

Re Tebbitt test, given we've been at war with practically everyone at some point, that means we should simply... Hate all foreigners!

kle4 said:

RobD said:

The new Tebbit test:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11262132/Lord-Tebbit-announces-new-cricket-test-for-EU-countries.html

In an interview with BBC Newsnight, Lord Tebbit said: "Well one test I would use is to ask them on which side their fathers or grandfathers or whatever fought in the Second World War. And so you'll find that the Poles and the Czechs and the Slovaks were all on the right side. And so that's a pretty good test isn’t it? Perhaps we'll even manage to teach them to play cricket over the years."

Flightpath said:

kle4 said:

RobD said:

The new Tebbit test:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11262132/Lord-Tebbit-announces-new-cricket-test-for-EU-countries.html

In an interview with BBC Newsnight, Lord Tebbit said: "Well one test I would use is to ask them on which side their fathers or grandfathers or whatever fought in the Second World War. And so you'll find that the Poles and the Czechs and the Slovaks were all on the right side. And so that's a pretty good test isn’t it? Perhaps we'll even manage to teach them to play cricket over the years."

Seems a bit of an odd test. It would hardly be my fault if my grandfathers fought on the wrong side.

rcs1000 said:

FalseFlag said:

Financier said:

david_herdson said:

another_richard said:

[David, w]hilst living in Hemsworth did you ever sample the joys of South Elmsall ?

This Mirror story helps explain the Labour to UKIP swing in the Yorkshire mining areas:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/next-christmas-jobs-offered-polish-4709994

Though the Mirror do manage to put an anti-Conservative slant on it.

I don't know South Elmsall all that well though I did visit briefly a couple of times. There isn't really anything in that article that surprises me much though.

The Mirror story shows how uncompetitive the UK has become globally and how we have paid ourselves too much for years.

It also reveals the major errors of the EU, how our benefit system is a disincentive for many to be employed.

Also many employers know that often a Polish worker has a better work ethic, is more reliable ad more likely to get out of bed on time.

Poland has less than half the GDP per capita than Britain. If you pay more you will get a higher standard of British worker. Good anecdote in a Farewell to Alms about the superiority of British to Polish workers.

So, the simple problem is that British companies pay too little?

But if what you were saying was true, then the British companies that paid more, and got these (otherwise unemployed) British workers, would be out competing other companies.

Capitalism would work, and those companies who foolishly hired Poles would go out of business.

Monksfield said:

rcs1000 said:

Financier said:

Brent crude closes at $70

Good news for energy importers - us, China, Europe. Bad news for the Middle East, Canada, Australia

Won't it be great when it filters through to our petrol and domestic utility costs... Oh, wait....

Flightpath said:

kle4 said:

RobD said:

The new Tebbit test:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11262132/Lord-Tebbit-announces-new-cricket-test-for-EU-countries.html

In an interview with BBC Newsnight, Lord Tebbit said: "Well one test I would use is to ask them on which side their fathers or grandfathers or whatever fought in the Second World War. And so you'll find that the Poles and the Czechs and the Slovaks were all on the right side. And so that's a pretty good test isn’t it? Perhaps we'll even manage to teach them to play cricket over the years."

Seems a bit of an odd test. It would hardly be my fault if my grandfathers fought on the wrong side.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Monksfield said:

rcs1000 said:

Financier said:

Brent crude closes at $70

Good news for energy importers - us, China, Europe. Bad news for the Middle East, Canada, Australia

Won't it be great when it filters through to our petrol and domestic utility costs... Oh, wait....

There is a problem that a number of the energy intermediaries are going to face over the next few months. A lot of the oil companies managed to sell future oil production six months ago at values way above the current price. There are millions of barrels of oil that have been sold on to the market which have not yet been delivered and which the energy companies paid over $100 a barrel for. They have to pay that price even though the oil price has now dropped to $70 a barrel.

Of course they deserve no sympathy as they were playing a game betting that the price would stay high or even increase with all the turmoil in the middle east and they guessed wrong./

I expect they are going to have a very uncomfortable time over the next few months.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Itajai said:

I distinctly remember Sugar ca 1990 being anything but pro-Labour.

Interesting how his political evolution from Thatcher's boy to Labour luvvie has mirrored his faltering business fortunes.

RodCrosby said:

No polls?