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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The week’s Local By-Election Results : Gains for SNP, UKIP
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The week’s Local By-Election Results : Gains for SNP, UKIP and CON
East Riding of Yorkshire
Bridlington Central and Old Town
Result: UKIP 401 (31%), Conservative 352 (27%), Dealtry (Independent) 217 (17%), Dixon (Independent) 214 (16%), Tate (Independent) 116 (9%)
UKIP GAIN from Social Democrat with a majority of 49 (4%)
Total Independent vote: 547 (42%)
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Jeremy Paxman Rules Out Mayor Of London Bid
The University Challenge host says he would not stand as Conservative candidate for the role - "for all the eclairs in Paris".
What a shame would have been fun to see Paxo on the rough end of a political interview
Ukip will be happy as well.
If it is its the place where the last coal mine was dug in the UK.
http://www.hillingdon.gov.uk/article/19791/Charville-ward-results-2010
Politicians are not popular.
This may lead to a general lowering of incumbency votes.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/market?marketId=1.101416490
By comparison the Hayes area to the south has moved massively towards Labour.
There are various demographic influences on these changes but I don't know enough about Charville to know how they might apply there.
See also Emily Thornberry as a "I'm sneering at white trash who have patriotic feelings".
Our MPs are supposed to represent us plebs in Parliament. It would appear at least two thinks we are inferior beings to their rich and propertied selves.
(It's as moronic and short sighted as the French aristocracy in the days of Louis X1V "let them eat cake" stuff.)
I am not by any means a UKIP supporter but their comments about Westminster elites ring strangely true.
See also Michael Portillo who got treated as he deserved in 1997..(and I suggest became a nicer person afterwards)
But I think its going to be easier for the next one to be elected in the first place.
This Mirror story helps explain the Labour to UKIP swing in the Yorkshire mining areas:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/next-christmas-jobs-offered-polish-4709994
Though the Mirror do manage to put an anti-Conservative slant on it.
This huge spread does do one thing worthy of note. It allows partisans on either side to find a poll to reassure them. Other people's confirmation bias is a rich vein of opportunity for the astute political gambler who can keep a level head.
This ward is in Hayes which I suspect has a far higher ethnic population than it used to 25 years ago. Ealing has moved strongly Labour in the last 5 years and this has been balanced somewhat by HIllingdon moving Tory. Like in Havering possibly because of white flight.
BTW what happened to the excellent election-map website. The new dumbed down version run by the OS is pretty rubbish. How do I even get ward names?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11262132/Lord-Tebbit-announces-new-cricket-test-for-EU-countries.html
There was some talk in the media immediately after the 1992 election that Trevor Skeet would get a peerage and so free up the constituency for Chris Patton to return to parliament in a byelection to be held at the same time as the May local elections.
Was any of this discussed in the constituency ?
IIRC Trevor Skeet was not universally popular among his constituency party.
And now you know why Labour are so keen to import voters.
I can't work out what's driving the Populus figures although not so long ago they were one of the most pro-CON firms.
A few random thoughts on the day - terrible news about Philip Hughes.
The great Cameron speech on immigration - well, yes but I'm tempted to say "so what ?". It's not a speech which will outflank UKIP in any sense but it's probably about as far as Cameron feels Europe will let him go at this time. The recent court ruling relating to EU citizens not being able to claim benefits in Germany has been a huge help.
I do find the idea of stopping citizens of new EU countries coming here to work until their economies "have converged more closely" laughable. No one applied that rigour when the times were good and we needed cheap skilled labour to keep the boom going. Indeed, I've long argued that admitting the former Communist countries of Eastern Europe to the EU after 1989 was less about economics than politics.
I'm also curious that those who get so animated in the defence of "British culture" have nothing to say about the latest import of Americana - "Black Friday". Do we need it - does it show the great British public in a positive light and are the likes of Tesco and the rest going to stump up for the extra Police costs they have caused ?
I always wonder if some posters who disappear have died without anyone online knowing.
Its not as if we need anymore encouragement to buy imported consumer tat.
And I'm baffled as to why the supermarkets are encouraging it. Last week they were aspiring to go upmarket with posh wines and whole serrano hams and now they're selling TVs at a loss to brawling chavs in the middle of the night. Very sophisticated.
Even Ruislip and Northwood are not as Tory as they used to be, relative to the national result.
Populus - 33.4
YouGov - 32.2
ICM - 31.0
Survation - 31.0
ComRes - 30.5
Opinium - 30.5
Mori - 30.0
Ashcroft - 29.8
Obviously, these aren't directly comparable as some firms only carried out one poll - and did so at different times of the month - while others published many. That said, and probably coincidentally, those who polled most are at the extreme end of the range above, which isn't what you'd expect from natural statistical variation.
The striking thing about Populus is how high their combined Con+Lab scores are: their October average being 69.2, compared with just 60.8 for Ashcroft and more than 3% more than any other pollster. They may be right but they're out on a limb.
Second, the good honest British tradition of clawing your neighbour's eyes out for a bargain has a place - it's called Boxing Day. We don't need to have it twice in the same year.
Third, it illustrates the degree to which we are still wedded to conspicuous consumption yet tainted with the sure-footed knowledge that we are getting a bargain. As we fight for that heavily-discounted gadget without which our lives would no longer be complete, do we ever wonder why the store is selling them at that price and, given the obvious demand, why they couldn't sell them at that price all the time ?
It's all about "the triumph of the deal" - my gadget is £150 cheaper than it was last week - I've got to get it NOW before the price goes up and I'll stand outside a packed Tesco's and fight complete strangers for it.
And some claim there are no values left (well, only the heavily discounted ones).
Urgh!
http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=IPr7nqR0M9AC&pg=PA6&lpg=PA6&dq=slovak+fast+corps&source=bl&ots=slF9A3PVGs&sig=NTCuBAOoP2FTRsDyPoJhrA7fok8&hl=en&sa=X&ei=weZ4VNu5PMbZar3ZgbgG&ved=0CEcQ6AEwBg#v=onepage&q=slovak fast corps&f=false
a) Doesn't need inflationary increases
b) Should be halved at a minimum.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3jNgMzCEAEGJa3.jpg
It is a rather glorified harvest festival, but a Turkey dinner with pumpkin pie and all the family getting together is a rather nice celebration. Much like Christmas without the commercialism.
My family kept it up for a few years after our return.
Those early colonials saw themselves as Englishmen abroad, and so Thankgiving has its roots in English Puritan traditions.
Edit - already been said!
The coverage of people treading on their fellow citizens to get to a discount LCD TV chilled me. What has society become? Disgusting and vile, is what it's become.
"The coverage of people treading on their fellow citizens to get to a discount LCD TV chilled me. What has society become? Disgusting and vile, is what it's become."
Selfish and greedy, just as the god fearing right always wanted.
It also reveals the major errors of the EU, how our benefit system is a disincentive for many to be employed.
Also many employers know that often a Polish worker has a better work ethic, is more reliable ad more likely to get out of bed on time.
Ho hum...
And there was I beginning to believe those true believers on here predicting the great Con resurgence in Scotland. Moniker? Easter? Scott?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-30250950
http://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/QB/2014/4015.html
Or are you worth it?
We need to lift our eyes in thanksgiving for a non-materialist philosophy.
But if what you were saying was true, then the British companies that paid more, and got these (otherwise unemployed) British workers, would be out competing other companies.
Capitalism would work, and those companies who foolishly hired Poles would go out of business.
In defence of Tebbitt (!); he was a pilot and like many other airmen of his generation was very grateful for the airmen of the Polish and Czechoslovakian airforces who were essential to the Battle of Britain.
I am glad to have Poles and Czechs as countrymen, they are fine people who integrate well.
It's an absurd test but since Germany Italy and Austria are not the nations 'sending' their migrants and that Russia and the former constituents of the USSR were also on our side then I assume Tebbit is happy to receive immigrants from the former Soviet states and Warsaw Pact countries.
In terms of economics of course it hardly matters if the immigrant comes from Poland or Germany or Romania, but again we must assume Tebbit thus accepts the economics of it.
Its also good to see Tebbit expects and values the notion of absorbing immigrants into our culture
Phillip Hobbs has been in fine form and saddles Fingal Bay. Having had an injury a couple of seasons ago he's still unexposed as a chaser and has many of the credentials - likes soft, will stay - to run well here. A sporting bet at around 8-1.
Monbeg Dude looks attractively weighted. A horse with a big engine, his weakness is his tendency to clout a couple on the way round. As a Welsh National winner a test of stamina is right up his street and I've had a few quid ew at 20-1. If he were to jump well he should be thereabouts and in my view the booking of Paul Moloney is a positive.
In terms of economics of course it hardly matters if the immigrant comes from Poland or Germany or Romania, but again we must assume Tebbit thus accepts the economics of it.
Its also good to see Tebbit expects and values the notion of absorbing immigrants into our culture
He calls it the "sins of my fathers, test"
Now you have to be careful, only chosen BBC comedy game show participants can use such clever post modern sub-irony in their remarks and certainly not to policemen.
The real sub-irony is that the target of the mass hysteria (and its useful to be reminded that it does exist) is the wide screen TV when in fact there is absolutely zero worth watching on it.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/cricket/event?id=27284275
His original cricket test made sense, but this one is plain bonkers.
You get two chances of winning - one that they are genuinely beaten and the other that they throw it anyway.
Of course they deserve no sympathy as they were playing a game betting that the price would stay high or even increase with all the turmoil in the middle east and they guessed wrong./
I expect they are going to have a very uncomfortable time over the next few months.
In terms of economics of course it hardly matters if the immigrant comes from Poland or Germany or Romania, but again we must assume Tebbit thus accepts the economics of it.
Its also good to see Tebbit expects and values the notion of absorbing immigrants into our culture
The countries that he mentioned were not merely allied with us. Their men fought in British uniforms alongside Commonwealth countries.
My grandfather worked with a lot of Polish miners after the war. He was very happy with them as friends. Their descendants are indistinguishable from other Brits apart from unspellable names.
If only other migrant communities that arrived a decade or two later were so well integrated!
In terms of economics of course it hardly matters if the immigrant comes from Poland or Germany or Romania, but again we must assume Tebbit thus accepts the economics of it.
Its also good to see Tebbit expects and values the notion of absorbing immigrants into our culture
Although amusingly it does mean that he's now presumably backing unlimited Pakistani and Bangladeshi immigration?
I met the guy who runs Shell's petrol station network in the UK a few years ago on a trip to Qatar. Nice chap, runs a multi billion pound chain of shops. His business card bore the title "Manager, Shell Retail"
Vat a dumpenkopfff sucker iss diss Zucker. Such luck zat he now has ze billion of ze dollars.
LD: 16 to Lab, 13 to Greens, 11 to Con, 10 to SNP, 9 to Ind
Greens: 73 to SNP, 42 to Ind, 33 to Lab, 17 to Con (SNP takes the lead by 14 votes)
Con: 100 to Lab, 83 to Ind, 27 to SNP
Ind: 239 to Lab, 229 to SNP
I'm wondering whether to cash out on my Betfair overall majority bet. Is NOM really going to go any lower than 1.43?