And so the incompetent are being surpassed by the filth...
Farage admitted earlier that they haven't had time or resources to do proper vetting of their candidates. If their vote continues to rise, they will make the O'Mara saga look like a sideshow.
As a result of Franklin Roosevelt's victory over Herbert Hoover in 1932 Presidential election in the USA and in the State of Washington, party standings in the WA legislature changed from:
1931 = WA state senate 1 Dem versus 41 Rep; WA state house Dem 8 versus Rep 89
1933 = WA state senate 25 Dem versus 21 Rep; WA state house 70 versus 29 Rep
As a result, many of the new legislators had NOT been expected to actually be elected. Naturally there were some vetting issues.
Most notably, turned out that one of the Democrats elected to the state house, had a felony conviction for statutory rape. Meaning he was ineligible to vote, let alone run for or serve in the legislature.
One of the first acts of the new state house was to expel him; his replacement was another, non-felonious Democrat.
The people laughing at Starmer last night for saying his dad was a toolmaker for the zillionth time were apparently doing it out of disrespect and snobbery. Don’t think that’s quite what happened to be honest!
Actually no I’m with Starmer there. He’s defending his Dad and he’s a bit prickly about his Dad being laughed at. Good for Kir, stick up for the working classes, and defend your old man. Nowt wrong with that!
Absolutely no one was laughing at his dad and it's only his Po-faced nature which makes him unable to see that. They were laughing at his constant repetition of a strange line to try and claim he's a man of the people.
Starmer is making a quite poignant admission that his Dad was the victim of snobbery and became socially withdrawn, as a reason, and Starmer is saying that’s why he reacts badly to laughter on this issue. I’m with Sir Kir Royale, for once. This is a human thing and quite admirable, emotional loyalty to your family
There is much to criticize Starmer for, he’s desperately dull and could be a terrible PM, but this is NOT a reason to lambast him, not at all
Tories are sub 20 with 4 pollsters. Its over. They will disintegrate over the next 3 weeks. I cant see them being the opposition.
Strange because Sunak and Hunt were supposed to be "the adults back in the room" for the Tories. What went wrong?
They're simply a very poor administration staggering along at the end of a string of disasters. The progressive running down of public services, the running battles over how to manage Brexit, the plague, Ukraine, and rampant inflation.
Doesn't necessarily follow that the Tories are going to disappear completely down the plughole though. In a contest where several runner up parties are all on similar vote shares, efficiency of distribution becomes all important - and the Tories have a lot of enormous majorities to fall back on. They don't need to finish second in vote share to comfortably retain second place in the Commons. Though, if course, the lower they sink the more unpredictable the overall picture becomes
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%
Baxtered:
Labour: 375 Reform: 127 LDs: 67 Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM
Reform have no real ground game, so I think your orgasmic reaction is misplaced. The Lib Dems are fighting their targets intensely. Reform have candidates that will explode and have no real target strategy beyond Clacton and Ashfield. IF you believe those numbers, then by all means go all in, but if I were you I would prepare to be very disappointed.
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%
Baxtered:
Labour: 375 Reform: 127 LDs: 67 Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM
Reform have no real ground game, so I think your orgasmic reaction is misplaced. The Lib Dems are fighting their targets intensely. Reform have candidates that will explode and have no real target strategy beyond Clacton and Ashfield. IF you believe those numbers, then by all means go all in, but if I were you I would prepare to be very disappointed.
Did you miss the *absurd but fun" bit?
Its certainly absurd, you have to have some grounding in reality, otherwise you end up like Grant Shapps, and who wants that?
Well, the reality is: Reform have just overtaken the Tories, and this with one of the most respected pollsters out there. THAT is the reality
Mmmm, is it? We have one pollster who says so in one poll. You're doing that Leon thing where you go from the existence of SOME evidence to bulletproof certainty in a flash.
I’m literally saying Reform have overtaken the Tories with ONE of our most respected pollsters
You’re doing that Farooq thing where you twist anything I say into fake and perverse gibberish coz you’ve got some weird obsession about me
Biden: "I'm extremely proud of my son Hunter. He has overcome an addition ... I said I would abide by the jury decision. I will do that. I will not pardon him." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1801329832627741060
Classy.
That's how you respond to a court verdict, not like Trump.
Biden is old and frail, but he's fundamentally decent. Trump is old and frail, and, well, I'll let people fill in the difference.
And rambles on about the choice between being electrocuted or eaten by a shark while escaping a non-existent sinking boat? In a landlocked state noted for being a desert?
Tories are sub 20 with 4 pollsters. Its over. They will disintegrate over the next 3 weeks. I cant see them being the opposition.
Strange because Sunak and Hunt were supposed to be "the adults back in the room" for the Tories. What went wrong?
The others in the room didn't want adults. They wanted cool aunties and uncles who would give them even more access to the drinks cabinet. Like Auntie Liz and Uncle Boris did. Why did Social Services have to come and remove them?
David Lloyd George was not a Liberal when he was PM. He was suspended from the party in 1916 following his coup against Asquith and not readmitted until 1923.
See I knew you'd pick up on this.
I was going to originally say the last Liberal to be PM but Churchill complicated that.
You could have picked Asquith.
The somewhat dry* donnish figure who came from modest backgrounds via multiple scholarships to public school and Oxbridge but simply couldn't relate to ordinary people and wasn't especially smart at politics.
*Leaving aside the drinking and sex mania.
I clearly have nothing in common with H. H. Asquith.
The people laughing at Starmer last night for saying his dad was a toolmaker for the zillionth time were apparently doing it out of disrespect and snobbery. Don’t think that’s quite what happened to be honest!
Actually no I’m with Starmer there. He’s defending his Dad and he’s a bit prickly about his Dad being laughed at. Good for Kir, stick up for the working classes, and defend your old man. Nowt wrong with that!
Absolutely no one was laughing at his dad and it's only his Po-faced nature which makes him unable to see that. They were laughing at his constant repetition of a strange line to try and claim he's a man of the people.
Starmer is making a quite poignant admission that his Dad was the victim of snobbery and became socially withdrawn, as a reason, and Starmer is saying that’s why he reacts badly to laughter on this issue. I’m with Sir Kir Royale, for once. This is a human thing and quite admirable, emotional loyalty to your family
There is much to criticize Starmer for, he’s desperately dull and could be a terrible PM, but this is NOT a reason to lambast him, not at all
His interview was extremely revealing of someone who perceives slights, sometimes even when they come from their own lack of confidence. It confirmed him as dour, chippy and worryingly, likely motivated by revenge against his class 'enemies'. Bodes ill for the next 5 years.
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked
SKS fans please explain
Starting to look like the more people see of SKS the less they are likely to vote Lab.
Early days but I am currently ecstatic with my GE2024 bets
And indeed SKS fans please explain why Lab have gone from 46 to 37 in a week with YG
Will end up on 10% at that rate!!
Starmer's campaign is an unmitigated disaster, but let's not forget where Corbyn landed in 2019.
P S. Have YouGov changed their methodology?
How can Starmers campaign be an "unmitigated disaster" when Labour are heading for one of the biggest majorities in British political history?
Quite, this is all a bit unhinged, rather like the nonsense that the Tories had beaten Sadiq Khan that was going round before even a single vote had been unboxed. The Tories are going to lose, Labour will probably get a massive majority, the Lib Dems will increase their seats substantially. THAT is the reality we are seeing on the doorsteps.
Now we have CROSSOVER, this election could go two ways:
1) Tory total collapse, inefficient right wing vote, LD loyal opposition 2) Reform vote never materialises, Labour bumps back up to mid-40s, Tories to mid-20s and over 100 seats
I've been placing bets based on 2) but if we get a few more polls suggesting 1) ... Hmmmm.
It does make me semi-question my focus on the bloc votes of LLG vs RefCon. On the basis Reform seems to be an anti-Tory vote and therefore takes some voters from other non-Tory parties.
The blocs are still useful reference points though, not least because there is very little volatility between polls. RefCon are up a bit - 1-2% in a few polls this week. But some of that may be DK or Labour switchers.
I predict the squeeze will start in earnest soon though, now people are focused on the election. Expect Con to rise at least 5, probably 7-8%, and Labour to recover 2-3%, mainly off Green and a bit of Ref. I think LD will settle close to or a bit below where ot is currently.
Gaby Hinsliff makes a similar point about Reform. Not just a threat to the Tories.
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked
SKS fans please explain
Starting to look like the more people see of SKS the less they are likely to vote Lab.
Early days but I am currently ecstatic with my GE2024 bets
And indeed SKS fans please explain why Lab have gone from 46 to 37 in a week with YG
Will end up on 10% at that rate!!
Starmer's campaign is an unmitigated disaster, but let's not forget where Corbyn landed in 2019.
P S. Have YouGov changed their methodology?
How can Starmers campaign be an "unmitigated disaster" when Labour are heading for one of the biggest majorities in British political history?
Quite, this is all a bit unhinged, rather like the nonsense that the Tories had beaten Sadiq Khan that was going round before even a single vote had been unboxed. The Tories are going to lose, Labour will probably get a massive majority, the Lib Dems will increase their seats substantially. THAT is the reality we are seeing on the doorsteps.
Tories are sub 20 with 4 pollsters. Its over. They will disintegrate over the next 3 weeks. I cant see them being the opposition.
Yes. Lets pull this movement apart: 1) Labour are shedding the soft vote that had herded into their column. Losing a few to Green, more to LibDem, some to Reform. That will reduce the number of seats they win and the majorities they get in those seats 2) LibDems are getting a lot of attention and people like what they see. Not relevant nationally, but the target seats focus and the willingness to vote tactically will pay out. I know the party is playing it down citing past elections, but Sarah Olney's tale of woe last night is a tale of elections past, not the one in front of us 3) Reform are transformed - the Nigel has doubled their support and the Tory dam is breaking. That Jenkyns leaflet won't be the only one. Once the dam breaks properly the surge of Tory votes to Reform is unstoppable now - watch the flow accelerate the closer we get to polling day 4) Sorry Tories, its the end. Nobody is listening to you, and the bits they hear they laugh at - openly, to your face.
Unless something radical happens to abruptly reverse it, this is going to be the biggest electoral shift for a century. The Tories have launched the manifesto now, its not going to pull a Farage-shooting rabbit out of the hat. And "don't give Labour a super-majority?" Not remotely enough when voters are now heading off to spread their votes about away from Labour.
I know that ELE is "it couldn't happen here". But it IS. Look. Listen. Think. What possibly can avert it now? Fear of that anodyne Labour offer? Fear of Farage? A sudden "poor Rishi lets vote for him after all" movement?
I have no clue what that means for seats. It's going to be fun.
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked
SKS fans please explain
Starting to look like the more people see of SKS the less they are likely to vote Lab.
Early days but I am currently ecstatic with my GE2024 bets
And indeed SKS fans please explain why Lab have gone from 46 to 37 in a week with YG
Will end up on 10% at that rate!!
Starmer's campaign is an unmitigated disaster, but let's not forget where Corbyn landed in 2019.
P S. Have YouGov changed their methodology?
How can Starmers campaign be an "unmitigated disaster" when Labour are heading for one of the biggest majorities in British political history?
Quite, this is all a bit unhinged, rather like the nonsense that the Tories had beaten Sadiq Khan that was going round before even a single vote had been unboxed. The Tories are going to lose, Labour will probably get a massive majority, the Lib Dems will increase their seats substantially. THAT is the reality we are seeing on the doorsteps.
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked
SKS fans please explain
Starting to look like the more people see of SKS the less they are likely to vote Lab.
Early days but I am currently ecstatic with my GE2024 bets
And indeed SKS fans please explain why Lab have gone from 46 to 37 in a week with YG
Will end up on 10% at that rate!!
Starmer's campaign is an unmitigated disaster, but let's not forget where Corbyn landed in 2019.
P S. Have YouGov changed their methodology?
How can Starmers campaign be an "unmitigated disaster" when Labour are heading for one of the biggest majorities in British political history?
Quite, this is all a bit unhinged, rather like the nonsense that the Tories had beaten Sadiq Khan that was going round before even a single vote had been unboxed. The Tories are going to lose, Labour will probably get a massive majority, the Lib Dems will increase their seats substantially. THAT is the reality we are seeing on the doorsteps.
Thing is Reform, like the Greens, don’t actually spend time bothering to come up with proper worked through policies. Yet they manage close to 25% between them just because of vibes.
I’ve spent much of this week looking at the tax contents of the manifestos. The Tory and Labour ones, and the materials they’ve published elsewhere, actually show some professionalism and an understanding of how this stuff works. The Tories of course benefit from the Treasury, which helps. Labour have some very talented Spads and have taken soundings from lots of qualified sources. The manifestos are both weak in many ways, but at least they have a modicum of real world about them. Even the Conservative tax cuts are costed in normal almost believable ways.
The Lib Dem tax proposals are disappointingly ill thought out. A shame because in previous elections they were usually among the most thorough. They fall short of the standard they should be aiming for.
The Green manifesto is pie in the sky. All sorts of very interesting ideas, but no pretence to realism. And Reform really don’t have a meaningful tax policy at all. Yet between them they’re on a quarter of the vote.
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked
SKS fans please explain
Starting to look like the more people see of SKS the less they are likely to vote Lab.
Early days but I am currently ecstatic with my GE2024 bets
And indeed SKS fans please explain why Lab have gone from 46 to 37 in a week with YG
Will end up on 10% at that rate!!
Starmer's campaign is an unmitigated disaster, but let's not forget where Corbyn landed in 2019.
P S. Have YouGov changed their methodology?
How can Starmers campaign be an "unmitigated disaster" when Labour are heading for one of the biggest majorities in British political history?
Quite, this is all a bit unhinged, rather like the nonsense that the Tories had beaten Sadiq Khan that was going round before even a single vote had been unboxed. The Tories are going to lose, Labour will probably get a massive majority, the Lib Dems will increase their seats substantially. THAT is the reality we are seeing on the doorsteps.
It has arrived as predicted. The YouGov poll showing the Tories coming third. Now the debate on here will rage about whether the Tories get 50 seats or below.After election night the debate will continue. How did the Tories get 150, 175, 200 seats? Because people lied about who they were going to vote and several polling companies got it wrong, how why? That is the mystery. To panic Tory voters for example into voting for the party that in their heart of hearts they support. I post this now and anyone who agrees with me fantanstic. The majority will say I am wrong and it is hurting Labour etc. Rubbish. For the people who bet on this site if you are putting your money down on this poll and others like it you may as well put your money down the nearest drain. The odd person on here will thank me after the election is done and I am proved right. If I am wrong I will accept it after the election is over. Until then I will stick to my view. The debaters on here will vehemently diagree with me and justify why they are right and I am wrong. I have news for you.Do not be conned.Think outside the box.
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked
SKS fans please explain
Starting to look like the more people see of SKS the less they are likely to vote Lab.
Early days but I am currently ecstatic with my GE2024 bets
And indeed SKS fans please explain why Lab have gone from 46 to 37 in a week with YG
Will end up on 10% at that rate!!
Starmer's campaign is an unmitigated disaster, but let's not forget where Corbyn landed in 2019.
P S. Have YouGov changed their methodology?
How can Starmers campaign be an "unmitigated disaster" when Labour are heading for one of the biggest majorities in British political history?
Quite, this is all a bit unhinged, rather like the nonsense that the Tories had beaten Sadiq Khan that was going round before even a single vote had been unboxed. The Tories are going to lose, Labour will probably get a massive majority, the Lib Dems will increase their seats substantially. THAT is the reality we are seeing on the doorsteps.
The Tories are going to win??
Yep Red Tories
The Labour manifesto says they will renationalise the railways and create a publicly owned energy company.
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked
SKS fans please explain
Starting to look like the more people see of SKS the less they are likely to vote Lab.
Early days but I am currently ecstatic with my GE2024 bets
And indeed SKS fans please explain why Lab have gone from 46 to 37 in a week with YG
Will end up on 10% at that rate!!
Starmer's campaign is an unmitigated disaster, but let's not forget where Corbyn landed in 2019.
P S. Have YouGov changed their methodology?
How can Starmers campaign be an "unmitigated disaster" when Labour are heading for one of the biggest majorities in British political history?
Quite, this is all a bit unhinged, rather like the nonsense that the Tories had beaten Sadiq Khan that was going round before even a single vote had been unboxed. The Tories are going to lose, Labour will probably get a massive majority, the Lib Dems will increase their seats substantially. THAT is the reality we are seeing on the doorsteps.
It has arrived as predicted. The YouGov poll showing the Tories coming third. Now the debate on here will rage about whether the Tories get 50 seats or below.After election night the debate will continue. How did the Tories get 150, 175, 200 seats? Because people lied about who they were going to vote and several polling companies got it wrong, how why? That is the mystery. To panic Tory voters for example into voting for the party that in their heart of hearts they support. I post this now and anyone who agrees with me fantanstic. The majority will say I am wrong and it is hurting Labour etc. Rubbish. For the people who bet on this site if you are putting your money down on this poll and others like it you may as well put your money down the nearest drain. The odd person on here will thank me after the election is done and I am proved right. If I am wrong I will accept it after the election is over. Until then I will stick to my view. The debaters on here will vehemently diagree with me and justify why they are right and I am wrong. I have news for you.Do not be conned.Think outside the box.
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked
SKS fans please explain
Starting to look like the more people see of SKS the less they are likely to vote Lab.
Early days but I am currently ecstatic with my GE2024 bets
And indeed SKS fans please explain why Lab have gone from 46 to 37 in a week with YG
Will end up on 10% at that rate!!
Starmer's campaign is an unmitigated disaster, but let's not forget where Corbyn landed in 2019.
P S. Have YouGov changed their methodology?
How can Starmers campaign be an "unmitigated disaster" when Labour are heading for one of the biggest majorities in British political history?
Quite, this is all a bit unhinged, rather like the nonsense that the Tories had beaten Sadiq Khan that was going round before even a single vote had been unboxed. The Tories are going to lose, Labour will probably get a massive majority, the Lib Dems will increase their seats substantially. THAT is the reality we are seeing on the doorsteps.
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked
SKS fans please explain
Starting to look like the more people see of SKS the less they are likely to vote Lab.
Early days but I am currently ecstatic with my GE2024 bets
And indeed SKS fans please explain why Lab have gone from 46 to 37 in a week with YG
Will end up on 10% at that rate!!
Starmer's campaign is an unmitigated disaster, but let's not forget where Corbyn landed in 2019.
P S. Have YouGov changed their methodology?
How can Starmers campaign be an "unmitigated disaster" when Labour are heading for one of the biggest majorities in British political history?
Quite, this is all a bit unhinged, rather like the nonsense that the Tories had beaten Sadiq Khan that was going round before even a single vote had been unboxed. The Tories are going to lose, Labour will probably get a massive majority, the Lib Dems will increase their seats substantially. THAT is the reality we are seeing on the doorsteps.
You’re in fucking Estonia
You got back from Odesa then? Your point is?
I’m not personally claiming “THIS is the reality we are seeing on the doorsteps”. You are. And yet you’re in Estonia
And so the incompetent are being surpassed by the filth...
Farage admitted earlier that they haven't had time or resources to do proper vetting of their candidates. If their vote continues to rise, they will make the O'Mara saga look like a sideshow.
As a result of Franklin Roosevelt's victory over Herbert Hoover in 1932 Presidential election in the USA and in the State of Washington, party standings in the WA legislature changed from:
1931 = WA state senate 1 Dem versus 41 Rep; WA state house Dem 8 versus Rep 89
1933 = WA state senate 25 Dem versus 21 Rep; WA state house 70 versus 29 Rep
As a result, many of the new legislators had NOT been expected to actually be elected. Naturally there were some vetting issues.
Most notably, turned out that one of the Democrats elected to the state house, had a felony conviction for statutory rape. Meaning he was ineligible to vote, let alone run for or serve in the legislature.
One of the first acts of the new state house was to expel him; his replacement was another, non-felonious Democrat.
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked
SKS fans please explain
Starting to look like the more people see of SKS the less they are likely to vote Lab.
Early days but I am currently ecstatic with my GE2024 bets
And indeed SKS fans please explain why Lab have gone from 46 to 37 in a week with YG
Will end up on 10% at that rate!!
Starmer's campaign is an unmitigated disaster, but let's not forget where Corbyn landed in 2019.
P S. Have YouGov changed their methodology?
How can Starmers campaign be an "unmitigated disaster" when Labour are heading for one of the biggest majorities in British political history?
Quite, this is all a bit unhinged, rather like the nonsense that the Tories had beaten Sadiq Khan that was going round before even a single vote had been unboxed. The Tories are going to lose, Labour will probably get a massive majority, the Lib Dems will increase their seats substantially. THAT is the reality we are seeing on the doorsteps.
The Tories are going to win??
Yep Red Tories
The Labour manifesto says they will renationalise the railways and create a publicly owned energy company.
How is this "red Tories"?
There's a handful of policies they agree on, so basically the same, right?
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked
SKS fans please explain
Starting to look like the more people see of SKS the less they are likely to vote Lab.
Early days but I am currently ecstatic with my GE2024 bets
And indeed SKS fans please explain why Lab have gone from 46 to 37 in a week with YG
Will end up on 10% at that rate!!
Starmer's campaign is an unmitigated disaster, but let's not forget where Corbyn landed in 2019.
P S. Have YouGov changed their methodology?
How can Starmers campaign be an "unmitigated disaster" when Labour are heading for one of the biggest majorities in British political history?
Quite, this is all a bit unhinged, rather like the nonsense that the Tories had beaten Sadiq Khan that was going round before even a single vote had been unboxed. The Tories are going to lose, Labour will probably get a massive majority, the Lib Dems will increase their seats substantially. THAT is the reality we are seeing on the doorsteps.
The Tories are going to win??
Yep Red Tories
The Labour manifesto says they will renationalise the railways and create a publicly owned energy company.
How is this "red Tories"?
Because the former is only at the end of franchises some of which are 7 years ago
And the latter is a PFI scheme that neither generates or sells energy but gives private energy companies massive profit with taxpayer taking all the risk
Not very good at understanding Politics are you mate?
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked
SKS fans please explain
YouGov is now polling using the candidates by name and party in the voters constituency. I know because I was in this poll (as an Undecided). So increasingly we are seeing a sharpening of Tactical Voting.
You poll as undecided? I never knew you were a Tory!
I am genuinely undecided how I will vote. Likely LD, but could go Green.
The Greens have sadly taken in a lot of unpleasant people from the left of Labour. DYOR.
It has arrived as predicted. The YouGov poll showing the Tories coming third. Now the debate on here will rage about whether the Tories get 50 seats or below.After election night the debate will continue. How did the Tories get 150, 175, 200 seats? Because people lied about who they were going to vote and several polling companies got it wrong, how why? That is the mystery. To panic Tory voters for example into voting for the party that in their heart of hearts they support. I post this now and anyone who agrees with me fantanstic. The majority will say I am wrong and it is hurting Labour etc. Rubbish. For the people who bet on this site if you are putting your money down on this poll and others like it you may as well put your money down the nearest drain. The odd person on here will thank me after the election is done and I am proved right. If I am wrong I will accept it after the election is over. Until then I will stick to my view. The debaters on here will vehemently diagree with me and justify why they are right and I am wrong. I have news for you.Do not be conned.Think outside the box.
I keep saying I think the Tories will get at least 25%, despite the polls.
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked
SKS fans please explain
Starting to look like the more people see of SKS the less they are likely to vote Lab.
Early days but I am currently ecstatic with my GE2024 bets
And indeed SKS fans please explain why Lab have gone from 46 to 37 in a week with YG
Will end up on 10% at that rate!!
Starmer's campaign is an unmitigated disaster, but let's not forget where Corbyn landed in 2019.
P S. Have YouGov changed their methodology?
How can Starmers campaign be an "unmitigated disaster" when Labour are heading for one of the biggest majorities in British political history?
Quite, this is all a bit unhinged, rather like the nonsense that the Tories had beaten Sadiq Khan that was going round before even a single vote had been unboxed. The Tories are going to lose, Labour will probably get a massive majority, the Lib Dems will increase their seats substantially. THAT is the reality we are seeing on the doorsteps.
You’re in fucking Estonia
You got back from Odesa then? Your point is?
I’m not personally claiming “THIS is the reality we are seeing on the doorsteps”. You are. And yet you’re in Estonia
Wind it in
I`m talking to the guys on the ground, which is ground I know very well, which is why they talk to me. Telephone canvassing can also be done at a distance...
Well it’s certainly going to be a media story, at least until the Euros. Much as I dislike Leon’s silly ramping about literally every topic he can troll us on, occasionally he has just cause.
This is a big moment. No one wants to back a loser. This could generate its own momentum. The Big Mo I believe they used to call it. Is that right? Reagan?
Well it’s certainly going to be a media story, at least until the Euros. Much as I dislike Leon’s silly ramping about literally every topic he can troll us on, occasionally he has just cause.
Reform OVERTAKES the Tories for the first time in an opinion poll: Nigel Farage hails 'inflection point' and crows that 'the only wasted vote now is a Conservative vote'
Do people get super excited by Reform getting ahead, and abandon the Tories further to take part in the moment of their annihilation? Or will historic loyalty win out, at least for some?
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked
SKS fans please explain
YouGov is now polling using the candidates by name and party in the voters constituency. I know because I was in this poll (as an Undecided). So increasingly we are seeing a sharpening of Tactical Voting.
You poll as undecided? I never knew you were a Tory!
I am genuinely undecided how I will vote. Likely LD, but could go Green.
The Greens have sadly taken in a lot of unpleasant people from the left of Labour. DYOR.
Yes but there are decent people too like Vix Lowthian.
Sorry did Farage just say he wants to replace the NHS.
Does it matter? Jeremy Vine at lunchtime today had queues of cancer patients who can't get scans or treatments or consultations. If I get ill I am resigned to paying, as I have been with dentistry for 40 years.
Well it’s certainly going to be a media story, at least until the Euros. Much as I dislike Leon’s silly ramping about literally every topic he can troll us on, occasionally he has just cause.
Reform OVERTAKES the Tories for the first time in an opinion poll: Nigel Farage hails 'inflection point' and crows that 'the only wasted vote now is a Conservative vote'
I can't say that I am enjoying this election. The Tories are not really my team but jeez.
Labour are getting away with promising something at the margins. And not being Tories. That is enough, apparently. Sunak has been a poor PM, no argument, but I don't think he deserves this. I will be glad when its over.
"Labour say they'll use the spare capacity in the private healthcare sector"
There's no spare capacity, its taken from the NHS. What Labour should do is build capacity in the NHS, not undermine it by diverting tax payers cash to build the pvt sector profiteers.
However Lab Donors are hang on pvt sector health lobbyists
Sorry did Farage just say he wants to replace the NHS.
Does it matter? Jeremy Vine at lunchtime today had queues of cancer patients who can't get scans or treatments or consultations. If I get ill I am resigned to paying, as I have been with dentistry for 40 years.
Well indeed. The NHS is de facto a two-tier service
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked
SKS fans please explain
Starting to look like the more people see of SKS the less they are likely to vote Lab.
Early days but I am currently ecstatic with my GE2024 bets
And indeed SKS fans please explain why Lab have gone from 46 to 37 in a week with YG
Will end up on 10% at that rate!!
Starmer's campaign is an unmitigated disaster, but let's not forget where Corbyn landed in 2019.
P S. Have YouGov changed their methodology?
How can Starmers campaign be an "unmitigated disaster" when Labour are heading for one of the biggest majorities in British political history?
Quite, this is all a bit unhinged, rather like the nonsense that the Tories had beaten Sadiq Khan that was going round before even a single vote had been unboxed. The Tories are going to lose, Labour will probably get a massive majority, the Lib Dems will increase their seats substantially. THAT is the reality we are seeing on the doorsteps.
You’re in fucking Estonia
You got back from Odesa then? Your point is?
I’m not personally claiming “THIS is the reality we are seeing on the doorsteps”. You are. And yet you’re in Estonia
Wind it in
I`m talking to the guys on the ground, which is ground I know very well, which is why they talk to me. Telephone canvassing can also be done at a distance...
Let's be clear, are you saying you have been telephone canvassing? Or are you saying merely that it can happen from where you are? Because we all already know that.
I’ll believe this is Clegg 2.0 until we are closer to election day.
No it isn't. The Clegg bounce was led by younger fickle voters who on average don't vote. The REFORM surge is led by much more stubborn reliable older voters.
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked
SKS fans please explain
YouGov is now polling using the candidates by name and party in the voters constituency. I know because I was in this poll (as an Undecided). So increasingly we are seeing a sharpening of Tactical Voting.
You poll as undecided? I never knew you were a Tory!
I am genuinely undecided how I will vote. Likely LD, but could go Green.
The Greens have sadly taken in a lot of unpleasant people from the left of Labour. DYOR.
Yes but there are decent people too like Vix Lowthian.
In my opinion she's a poor candidate, and a lot of local Greens say the same.
Tories are sub 20 with 4 pollsters. Its over. They will disintegrate over the next 3 weeks. I cant see them being the opposition.
Yes. Lets pull this movement apart: 1) Labour are shedding the soft vote that had herded into their column. Losing a few to Green, more to LibDem, some to Reform. That will reduce the number of seats they win and the majorities they get in those seats 2) LibDems are getting a lot of attention and people like what they see. Not relevant nationally, but the target seats focus and the willingness to vote tactically will pay out. I know the party is playing it down citing past elections, but Sarah Olney's tale of woe last night is a tale of elections past, not the one in front of us 3) Reform are transformed - the Nigel has doubled their support and the Tory dam is breaking. That Jenkyns leaflet won't be the only one. Once the dam breaks properly the surge of Tory votes to Reform is unstoppable now - watch the flow accelerate the closer we get to polling day 4) Sorry Tories, its the end. Nobody is listening to you, and the bits they hear they laugh at - openly, to your face.
Unless something radical happens to abruptly reverse it, this is going to be the biggest electoral shift for a century. The Tories have launched the manifesto now, its not going to pull a Farage-shooting rabbit out of the hat. And "don't give Labour a super-majority?" Not remotely enough when voters are now heading off to spread their votes about away from Labour.
I know that ELE is "it couldn't happen here". But it IS. Look. Listen. Think. What possibly can avert it now? Fear of that anodyne Labour offer? Fear of Farage? A sudden "poor Rishi lets vote for him after all" movement?
I have no clue what that means for seats. It's going to be fun.
And the thing is, even if Labour had got to a majority of 1 from their starting point, that would already have been an implausibly huge shift. Now we're in a situation where even a sensible, nothing to worry about for 4-5 years majority (40 or so?) would feel like a... not quite a failure, but a let down from here.
If 1997 was the meterorite that killed the dinosaurs, this has the potential to be like the one that broke off a part of planet Earth to become the Moon.
Meanwhile, the latest Rosindellgram came through my letterbox today. Some very high-pitched "don't vote Reform, that will let Labour in and that will make Khan happy" stuff.
I’m shocked that the Tories so far have received no bounce from their manifesto . They were essentially handing out money . So either the public don’t believe they can deliver on those pledges or they just hate the party and want them eviscerated.
It has arrived as predicted. The YouGov poll showing the Tories coming third. Now the debate on here will rage about whether the Tories get 50 seats or below.After election night the debate will continue. How did the Tories get 150, 175, 200 seats? Because people lied about who they were going to vote and several polling companies got it wrong, how why? That is the mystery. To panic Tory voters for example into voting for the party that in their heart of hearts they support. I post this now and anyone who agrees with me fantanstic. The majority will say I am wrong and it is hurting Labour etc. Rubbish. For the people who bet on this site if you are putting your money down on this poll and others like it you may as well put your money down the nearest drain. The odd person on here will thank me after the election is done and I am proved right. If I am wrong I will accept it after the election is over. Until then I will stick to my view. The debaters on here will vehemently diagree with me and justify why they are right and I am wrong. I have news for you.Do not be conned.Think outside the box.
I keep saying I think the Tories will get at least 25%, despite the polls.
This does rather remind me of the moment when a poll put Yes ahead in the Indy referendum. You felt it was always going to happen but - also - that No would eventually prevail.
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked
SKS fans please explain
Starting to look like the more people see of SKS the less they are likely to vote Lab.
Early days but I am currently ecstatic with my GE2024 bets
And indeed SKS fans please explain why Lab have gone from 46 to 37 in a week with YG
Will end up on 10% at that rate!!
Starmer's campaign is an unmitigated disaster, but let's not forget where Corbyn landed in 2019.
P S. Have YouGov changed their methodology?
How can Starmers campaign be an "unmitigated disaster" when Labour are heading for one of the biggest majorities in British political history?
Quite, this is all a bit unhinged, rather like the nonsense that the Tories had beaten Sadiq Khan that was going round before even a single vote had been unboxed. The Tories are going to lose, Labour will probably get a massive majority, the Lib Dems will increase their seats substantially. THAT is the reality we are seeing on the doorsteps.
I’ll believe this is Clegg 2.0 until we are closer to election day.
No it isn't. The Clegg bounce was led by younger fickle voters who on average don't vote. The REFORM surge is led by much more stubborn reliable older voters.
No. In that YouGov poll, Reform are ahead of Conservative in all age categories apart from 65+.
I’ll believe this is Clegg 2.0 until we are closer to election day.
No it isn't. The Clegg bounce was led by younger fickle voters who on average don't vote. The REFORM surge is led by much more stubborn reliable older voters.
I think the other factor which perhaps CHB is glossing is that it’s hand-in-hand with the abysmal Conservative performance. I maintain that this is the real story of this election. Labour-LibDems look okay to me performance wise and a lot of tactical voting coming. Reform do clearly now have some momentum.
But the Conservatives are confounding my own expectations that they would rally to high 20’s. They are sinking into uncharted waters. That’s the real story.
This is going to be an anti-Government anti-Conservative vote like nothing this country has ever seen.
It has arrived as predicted. The YouGov poll showing the Tories coming third. Now the debate on here will rage about whether the Tories get 50 seats or below.After election night the debate will continue. How did the Tories get 150, 175, 200 seats? Because people lied about who they were going to vote and several polling companies got it wrong, how why? That is the mystery. To panic Tory voters for example into voting for the party that in their heart of hearts they support. I post this now and anyone who agrees with me fantanstic. The majority will say I am wrong and it is hurting Labour etc. Rubbish. For the people who bet on this site if you are putting your money down on this poll and others like it you may as well put your money down the nearest drain. The odd person on here will thank me after the election is done and I am proved right. If I am wrong I will accept it after the election is over. Until then I will stick to my view. The debaters on here will vehemently diagree with me and justify why they are right and I am wrong. I have news for you.Do not be conned.Think outside the box.
I keep saying I think the Tories will get at least 25%, despite the polls.
That is my betting position too, but not looking a wise one. I was expecting some swingback.
I didn't think Sunak to run a good campaign, but I wasn't expecting a cross between Frank Spencer and Sideshow Bob.
It has arrived as predicted. The YouGov poll showing the Tories coming third. Now the debate on here will rage about whether the Tories get 50 seats or below.After election night the debate will continue. How did the Tories get 150, 175, 200 seats? Because people lied about who they were going to vote and several polling companies got it wrong, how why? That is the mystery. To panic Tory voters for example into voting for the party that in their heart of hearts they support. I post this now and anyone who agrees with me fantanstic. The majority will say I am wrong and it is hurting Labour etc. Rubbish. For the people who bet on this site if you are putting your money down on this poll and others like it you may as well put your money down the nearest drain. The odd person on here will thank me after the election is done and I am proved right. If I am wrong I will accept it after the election is over. Until then I will stick to my view. The debaters on here will vehemently diagree with me and justify why they are right and I am wrong. I have news for you.Do not be conned.Think outside the box.
I keep saying I think the Tories will get at least 25%, despite the polls.
I put a nice insurance bet on the Tories at 150-200 seats at 8/1 earlier this week courtesy of a free bet with Skybet, and am now green or break even on all outcomes (save NOM or Con majority), with extra thanks to a bet on a Lab majority at 5/1 over two years ago that covers most outcomes. I win big on Lab 500 seats plus. But I think things are being overstated at the moment.
Reform will poll well nationally but will fail to win seats locally. The shires will remain Conservative, and the Lab to RefUK defectors will be a spoiler in seats Labour was hoping to win.
I can't say that I am enjoying this election. The Tories are not really my team but jeez.
Labour are getting away with promising something at the margins. And not being Tories. That is enough, apparently. Sunak has been a poor PM, no argument, but I don't think he deserves this. I will be glad when its over.
Aren't they? I had you down as a dyed in the wool Conservative. Have I got you totally wrong?
It has arrived as predicted. The YouGov poll showing the Tories coming third. Now the debate on here will rage about whether the Tories get 50 seats or below.After election night the debate will continue. How did the Tories get 150, 175, 200 seats? Because people lied about who they were going to vote and several polling companies got it wrong, how why? That is the mystery. To panic Tory voters for example into voting for the party that in their heart of hearts they support. I post this now and anyone who agrees with me fantanstic. The majority will say I am wrong and it is hurting Labour etc. Rubbish. For the people who bet on this site if you are putting your money down on this poll and others like it you may as well put your money down the nearest drain. The odd person on here will thank me after the election is done and I am proved right. If I am wrong I will accept it after the election is over. Until then I will stick to my view. The debaters on here will vehemently diagree with me and justify why they are right and I am wrong. I have news for you.Do not be conned.Think outside the box.
I keep saying I think the Tories will get at least 25%, despite the polls.
Which is still a calamitous result, lest we forget.
It has arrived as predicted. The YouGov poll showing the Tories coming third. Now the debate on here will rage about whether the Tories get 50 seats or below.After election night the debate will continue. How did the Tories get 150, 175, 200 seats? Because people lied about who they were going to vote and several polling companies got it wrong, how why? That is the mystery. To panic Tory voters for example into voting for the party that in their heart of hearts they support. I post this now and anyone who agrees with me fantanstic. The majority will say I am wrong and it is hurting Labour etc. Rubbish. For the people who bet on this site if you are putting your money down on this poll and others like it you may as well put your money down the nearest drain. The odd person on here will thank me after the election is done and I am proved right. If I am wrong I will accept it after the election is over. Until then I will stick to my view. The debaters on here will vehemently diagree with me and justify why they are right and I am wrong. I have news for you.Do not be conned.Think outside the box.
Maybe we've been looking in the wrong party for the Portillo moment of this election. It could be someone who would have had a place in Starmer's cabinet losing their seat unexpectedly to Reform.
It has arrived as predicted. The YouGov poll showing the Tories coming third. Now the debate on here will rage about whether the Tories get 50 seats or below.After election night the debate will continue. How did the Tories get 150, 175, 200 seats? Because people lied about who they were going to vote and several polling companies got it wrong, how why? That is the mystery. To panic Tory voters for example into voting for the party that in their heart of hearts they support. I post this now and anyone who agrees with me fantanstic. The majority will say I am wrong and it is hurting Labour etc. Rubbish. For the people who bet on this site if you are putting your money down on this poll and others like it you may as well put your money down the nearest drain. The odd person on here will thank me after the election is done and I am proved right. If I am wrong I will accept it after the election is over. Until then I will stick to my view. The debaters on here will vehemently diagree with me and justify why they are right and I am wrong. I have news for you.Do not be conned.Think outside the box.
I keep saying I think the Tories will get at least 25%, despite the polls.
I put a nice insurance bet on the Tories at 150-200 seats at 8/1 earlier this week courtesy of a free bet with Skybet, and am now green or break even on all outcomes (save NOM or Con majority), with extra thanks to a bet on a Lab majority at 5/1 over two years ago that covers most outcomes. I win big on Lab 500 seats plus. But I think things are being overstated at the moment.
Reform will poll well nationally but will fail to win seats locally. The shires will remain Conservative, and the Lab to RefUK defectors will be a spoiler in seats Labour was hoping to win.
The highest Reform seat category on Betfair is "7 or over", and last time I looked it was 4 point something. That will probably come in as election approaches, as a lot of punters won't understand the FPTP hurdle they face. I reckon that makes a decent bet, either to get rid of before polling day or to hold if it really does look like the Tories are in third or fourth.
Do people get super excited by Reform getting ahead, and abandon the Tories further to take part in the moment of their annihilation? Or will historic loyalty win out, at least for some?
Such times we live in.
The ideal scenario for Labour is that they split both ways.
More realistic is that they come home to mummy by the 4th July.
I’ll believe this is Clegg 2.0 until we are closer to election day.
Possibly. LD warnings about 2019 as well - and that reform was utterly absurd. We got told to go fight all kinds of stretch seats until the last 2 weeks when internal polls showed we could lose Swinson and Farron.
This doesn't feel like that, or 2010. The momentum towards ELE has been visible for a year. More. Had there been a Daveygasm, with Ed's fun strategy getting everyone going FUCK ME THAT'S BRILLIANT as they did with Clegg, then maybe it would just be a 2010-style bubble.
I come back to fantasy vs reality. Tories on fantasy island refusing to accept what they have done, and they're going to be annihilated for it.
How many seats, national % shares, who is the opposition - all up in the air. A chaos election produces chaos results.
I’m shocked that the Tories so far have received no bounce from their manifesto . They were essentially handing out money . So either the public don’t believe they can deliver on those pledges or they just hate the party and want them eviscerated.
There was no blockbuster policy to say "ooh look at this". Because Sunak is a boring Excel guy.
Comments
Who? Who? Who?
Or do you mean the politics?
1931 = WA state senate 1 Dem versus 41 Rep; WA state house Dem 8 versus Rep 89
1933 = WA state senate 25 Dem versus 21 Rep; WA state house 70 versus 29 Rep
As a result, many of the new legislators had NOT been expected to actually be elected. Naturally there were some vetting issues.
Most notably, turned out that one of the Democrats elected to the state house, had a felony conviction for statutory rape. Meaning he was ineligible to vote, let alone run for or serve in the legislature.
One of the first acts of the new state house was to expel him; his replacement was another, non-felonious Democrat.
There is much to criticize Starmer for, he’s desperately dull and could be a terrible PM, but this is NOT a reason to lambast him, not at all
Doesn't necessarily follow that the Tories are going to disappear completely down the plughole though. In a contest where several runner up parties are all on similar vote shares, efficiency of distribution becomes all important - and the Tories have a lot of enormous majorities to fall back on. They don't need to finish second in vote share to comfortably retain second place in the Commons. Though, if course, the lower they sink the more unpredictable the overall picture becomes
(Ok, I exaggerate - 20 minutes)
Favourable: 39% (+3 from 4-5 Jun)
Unfavourable: 51% (-2)
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1801281578020081738
This does not square with Labour falling back, except for their voters voting Lib Dems to stop the Tories.
Some people are being particularly silly this evening!
How much more creepy and weird can they be?
(OK - answer 'a lot' but there comes a point where it shouldn't really make a difference.)
Lab 29
Ref 15
Con 11
LD 10
DKs 15
This has the potential to result in anything
People not qualified to comment if they dont understand Data Tables!!
https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_AdHoc_240613_w.pdf
Different league from Farage
1) Tory total collapse, inefficient right wing vote, LD loyal opposition
2) Reform vote never materialises, Labour bumps back up to mid-40s, Tories to mid-20s and over 100 seats
I've been placing bets based on 2) but if we get a few more polls suggesting 1) ... Hmmmm.
https://x.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1801343464606433506?s=61
Among 18-24 year-olds they beat the Tories 15% to 7%. and are now well ahead on all age groups below 65.
*Subsample Klaxon for @Anabobazina
1) Labour are shedding the soft vote that had herded into their column. Losing a few to Green, more to LibDem, some to Reform. That will reduce the number of seats they win and the majorities they get in those seats
2) LibDems are getting a lot of attention and people like what they see. Not relevant nationally, but the target seats focus and the willingness to vote tactically will pay out. I know the party is playing it down citing past elections, but Sarah Olney's tale of woe last night is a tale of elections past, not the one in front of us
3) Reform are transformed - the Nigel has doubled their support and the Tory dam is breaking. That Jenkyns leaflet won't be the only one. Once the dam breaks properly the surge of Tory votes to Reform is unstoppable now - watch the flow accelerate the closer we get to polling day
4) Sorry Tories, its the end. Nobody is listening to you, and the bits they hear they laugh at - openly, to your face.
Unless something radical happens to abruptly reverse it, this is going to be the biggest electoral shift for a century. The Tories have launched the manifesto now, its not going to pull a Farage-shooting rabbit out of the hat. And "don't give Labour a super-majority?" Not remotely enough when voters are now heading off to spread their votes about away from Labour.
I know that ELE is "it couldn't happen here". But it IS. Look. Listen. Think. What possibly can avert it now? Fear of that anodyne Labour offer? Fear of Farage? A sudden "poor Rishi lets vote for him after all" movement?
I have no clue what that means for seats. It's going to be fun.
I’ve spent much of this week looking at the tax contents of the manifestos. The Tory and Labour ones, and the materials they’ve published elsewhere, actually show some professionalism and an understanding of how this stuff works. The Tories of course benefit from the Treasury, which helps. Labour have some very talented Spads and have taken soundings from lots of qualified sources. The manifestos are both weak in many ways, but at least they have a modicum of real world about them. Even the Conservative tax cuts are costed in normal almost believable ways.
The Lib Dem tax proposals are disappointingly ill thought out. A shame because in previous elections they were usually among the most thorough. They fall short of the standard they should be aiming for.
The Green manifesto is pie in the sky. All sorts of very interesting ideas, but no pretence to realism. And Reform really don’t have a meaningful tax policy at all. Yet between them they’re on a quarter of the vote.
How is this "red Tories"?
Lab 40.75%
Con 19.25%
LibDem 12.5%
Reform 18%
Green 6%
(YouGov, R&W, WeThink, BMG. Did I miss one?)
But I’m not surprised you want to shut down discussion of your theory if you don’t believe in democracy.
Wind it in
Former Oregon Governor Neil Goldschmidt, who raped girl, dead at 83
https://katu.com/news/local/former-oregon-governor-neil-goldschmidt-embroiled-in-scandal-passes-away-at-83-jimmy-carter-ted-kulongoski-board-of-higher-education-nike-salem-portland-mayor-nigel-jaquiss-willamette-week-multnomah-county
Sam Freedman
@Samfr
·
24m
This is what happened during Canada 93. Reform shot up as people decided there was no point voting Conservative.
And the latter is a PFI scheme that neither generates or sells energy but gives private energy companies massive profit with taxpayer taking all the risk
Not very good at understanding Politics are you mate?
This is a big moment. No one wants to back a loser. This could generate its own momentum. The Big Mo I believe they used to call it. Is that right? Reagan?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13527661/Reform-UK-OVERTAKE-Tories-time-opinion-poll-Nigel-Farage-hails-inflection-point-crows-wasted-vote-Conservative-vote.html
Reform OVERTAKES the Tories for the first time in an opinion poll: Nigel Farage hails 'inflection point' and crows that 'the only wasted vote now is a Conservative vote'
Such times we live in.
Sunak cancelled a much needed railway line.
Labour are getting away with promising something at the margins. And not being Tories. That is enough, apparently. Sunak has been a poor PM, no argument, but I don't think he deserves this. I will be glad when its over.
"Labour say they'll use the spare capacity in the private healthcare sector"
There's no spare capacity, its taken from the NHS. What Labour should do is build capacity in the NHS, not undermine it by diverting tax payers cash to build the pvt sector profiteers.
However Lab Donors are hang on pvt sector health lobbyists
Or are you saying merely that it can happen from where you are? Because we all already know that.
The REFORM surge is led by much more stubborn reliable older voters.
YouGov's last poll before the 2019 election was just a week before polling day, and was pretty much spot on for the final result.
That one had 13% DK, and it also had 8% will not vote. The equivalent poll approx 3 weeks out, had 15% DKs - so exactly the same.
The Tory vote before they stripped out, was 10% lower than the headline figure, so further away that Labour in that poll above.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/itsi0h01ub/TheSundayTimes_VI_Results_191206_w.pdf
The polling companies have a good idea at this stage what those DKs will do, so I wouldn't get your hopes up.
If 1997 was the meterorite that killed the dinosaurs, this has the potential to be like the one that broke off a part of planet Earth to become the Moon.
Meanwhile, the latest Rosindellgram came through my letterbox today. Some very high-pitched "don't vote Reform, that will let Labour in and that will make Khan happy" stuff.
prevail.
Suspect we may be seeing something similar here.
But the Conservatives are confounding my own expectations that they would rally to high 20’s. They are sinking into uncharted waters. That’s the real story.
This is going to be an anti-Government anti-Conservative vote like nothing this country has ever seen.
Oh heck, I sound like Leon
I didn't think Sunak to run a good campaign, but I wasn't expecting a cross between Frank Spencer and Sideshow Bob.
Reform will poll well nationally but will fail to win seats locally. The shires will remain Conservative, and the Lab to RefUK defectors will be a spoiler in seats Labour was hoping to win.
You can PM me if you need advice in how to read data tables!
More realistic is that they come home to mummy by the 4th July.
So you just parrot your lines and pray.
This doesn't feel like that, or 2010. The momentum towards ELE has been visible for a year. More. Had there been a Daveygasm, with Ed's fun strategy getting everyone going FUCK ME THAT'S BRILLIANT as they did with Clegg, then maybe it would just be a 2010-style bubble.
I come back to fantasy vs reality. Tories on fantasy island refusing to accept what they have done, and they're going to be annihilated for it.
How many seats, national % shares, who is the opposition - all up in the air. A chaos election produces chaos results.