Attention will now turn to the Reform manifesto. Will it contain the eyewatering spending cuts that Tice proposed? Along with the slashing of NHS waiting lists? And tax cuts? Paid for by a cull of Diversity Officers?
Is this not basically Trumpish - reason does not apply.
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%
Baxtered:
Labour: 375 Reform: 127 LDs: 67 Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM
Reform have no real ground game, so I think your orgasmic reaction is misplaced. The Lib Dems are fighting their targets intensely. Reform have candidates that will explode and have no real target strategy beyond Clacton and Ashfield. IF you believe those numbers, then by all means go all in, but if I were you I would prepare to be very disappointed.
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%
Baxtered:
Labour: 375 Reform: 127 LDs: 67 Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM
Reform have no real ground game, so I think your orgasmic reaction is misplaced. The Lib Dems are fighting their targets intensely. Reform have candidates that will explode and have no real target strategy beyond Clacton and Ashfield. IF you believe those numbers, then by all means go all in, but if I were you I would prepare to be very disappointed.
Did you miss the *absurd but fun" bit?
Its certainly absurd, you have to have some grounding in reality, otherwise you end up like Grant Shapps, and who wants that?
Well, the reality is: Reform have just overtaken the Tories, and this with one of the most respected pollsters out there. THAT is the reality
David Lloyd George was not a Liberal when he was PM. He was suspended from the party in 1916 following his coup against Asquith and not readmitted until 1923.
See I knew you'd pick up on this.
I was going to originally say the last Liberal to be PM but Churchill complicated that.
Spotted my first placard this morning - Ashfield Independent.
Chatting to a friend tonight where his street is blighted by a traveller take-over-and-develop-land-illegally problem. It's a genuine problem, of which I will say no more.
He says his street is pretty much a Reform zone, since Lee Anderson has been giving them attention even now.
Just popping out for an evening cycle around a couple of estates to see what placards are around.
First canvass attempt today. Yellow badge so door closed.
Have to admit, this poll is a genuine KABOOOOOM poll - Doesn't happen very often, so savour it!
Are we truly living in an era of the end of one major party and rise of another? Probably not. But the question reasonably being raised is exciting in itself.
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked
SKS fans please explain
YouGov is now polling using the candidates by name and party in the voters constituency. I know because I was in this poll (as an Undecided). So increasingly we are seeing a sharpening of Tactical Voting.
You poll as undecided? I never knew you were a Tory!
But SKS's personal ratings are still going up, intriguing.
Tactical voting.
Yes. The LDs are getting a bit more visibility, and Labour seem secure enough (and the election near enough) for Lab supporters in appropriate constituencies to start telling pollsters that they *will* be voting LD rather than *hypothetically* voting Labour.
The dead giveaway in this poll is that 44% of Liberal voters want a Labour Super-Majority.
But, instead, several PBers seem to be saying, explicitly or implicitly, that Labour should be more worried than the Tories about the Faragasm.
But SKS's personal ratings are still going up, intriguing.
Tactical voting.
Yes. The LDs are getting a bit more visibility, and Labour seem secure enough (and the election near enough) for Lab supporters in appropriate constituencies to start telling pollsters that they *will* be voting LD rather than *hypothetically* voting Labour.
The dead giveaway in this poll is that 44% of Liberal voters want a Labour Super-Majority.
But, instead, several PBers seem to be saying, explicitly or implicitly, that Labour should be more worried than the Tories about the Faragasm.
People say that about all the various Farage entities. Has it ever been true?
David Lloyd George was not a Liberal when he was PM. He was suspended from the party in 1916 following his coup against Asquith and not readmitted until 1923.
See I knew you'd pick up on this.
I was going to originally say the last Liberal to be PM but Churchill complicated that.
You could have picked Asquith.
The somewhat dry* donnish figure who came from modest backgrounds via multiple scholarships to public school and Oxbridge but simply couldn't relate to ordinary people and wasn't especially smart at politics.
Maybe we've been looking in the wrong party for the Portillo moment of this election. It could be someone who would have had a place in Starmer's cabinet losing their seat unexpectedly to Reform.
I'm beginning to realise that I have woefully underestimated the amount of snacks I need for election night.
What snacks do you think you will need?
I think a box of chocolates might be a good option for a Labour-style snack. "Labour is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get." They've given precious little away in the manifesto...
Sunak and Hunt's net favourables at the bottom of the chart. Assuming they lose badly their wing of the party will likely lose control of the Tories and the right in the UK for a generation, especially with Farage's approval net even higher than theirs.
No surprises in the Labour manifesto, very much caution first
It's a Ming vase manifesto.
Either he carries it throughout his first term, or he drops it and gets down to business.
Which will it be?
It will be tempting to take the Blair approach and do nothing in term 1 for fear of not getting term 2. For the sake of the country, I hope he doesn't, and that he uses "we're in a bigger hole than I feared" excuse as a cover.
But he's not a young man, which would point towards a need to hurry.
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked
SKS fans please explain
YouGov is now polling using the candidates by name and party in the voters constituency. I know because I was in this poll (as an Undecided). So increasingly we are seeing a sharpening of Tactical Voting.
You poll as undecided? I never knew you were a Tory!
I am genuinely undecided how I will vote. Likely LD, but could go Green.
The people laughing at Starmer last night for saying his dad was a toolmaker for the zillionth time were apparently doing it out of disrespect and snobbery. Don’t think that’s quite what happened to be honest!
Yes Reform likely won’t do much if they stick around 19% but the point is if less-tuned in Tory voters start noticing what’s happening they *might* switch, and then who knows what will happen.
Of course it won’t be straightforward, but last week people were saying the same about Crossover.
We are in uncharted territory and uncharted things could happen.
This isn't yet cross-over. It is one poll. However, this one poll may lead to cross-over. We will see
The people laughing at Starmer last night for saying his dad was a toolmaker for the zillionth time were apparently doing it out of disrespect and snobbery. Don’t think that’s quite what happened to be honest!
Well, that sort of attitude does suggest BJO is right* and his dad made a tool.
Tactical voting on the right comes into play. This needs voter awareness of Reform/Tory strength in their constituencies
This assumes that the rump Tory support is willing to touch Reform with a ten foot bargepole. Hardly a given.
You are right, the 'rump' won't vote tactically, but the fringe might well
I don't know, is there anyone left in that Tory vote share who might still be willing to defect or are they down to the core?
I'd previously have said their core in a GE would be 30%, so I don't know. We're all guessing at this stage. Potentially some very odd things about to happen.
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%
Baxtered:
Labour: 375 Reform: 127 LDs: 67 Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM
Reform have no real ground game, so I think your orgasmic reaction is misplaced. The Lib Dems are fighting their targets intensely. Reform have candidates that will explode and have no real target strategy beyond Clacton and Ashfield. IF you believe those numbers, then by all means go all in, but if I were you I would prepare to be very disappointed.
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%
Baxtered:
Labour: 375 Reform: 127 LDs: 67 Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM
Reform have no real ground game, so I think your orgasmic reaction is misplaced. The Lib Dems are fighting their targets intensely. Reform have candidates that will explode and have no real target strategy beyond Clacton and Ashfield. IF you believe those numbers, then by all means go all in, but if I were you I would prepare to be very disappointed.
Did you miss the *absurd but fun" bit?
Its certainly absurd, you have to have some grounding in reality, otherwise you end up like Grant Shapps, and who wants that?
Well, the reality is: Reform have just overtaken the Tories, and this with one of the most respected pollsters out there. THAT is the reality
Not convinced, I would wait for few more polls before you reach for the Kleenex.
I reckon Labour will be more worried by Reform than the Tories.
No, as @Cicero points out Reform have no real ground game.
I suspect Lab aren't worried by either of them - this GE at least. A large part of the core right-wing vote will be voting next week remember. Not much time for momentum to build
The people laughing at Starmer last night for saying his dad was a toolmaker for the zillionth time were apparently doing it out of disrespect and snobbery. Don’t think that’s quite what happened to be honest!
Yes the video of him talking to GBNews was very worrying. Came across every inch the dour chippy lefty seeing slights round every corner, and looking forward to screwing his perceived oppressors (who will by and large be less wealthy and middle class than he).
I wonder if a panicked Sunak might now agree to a head-to-head debate with Farage?
He would be crazy to. He cannot debate, while Farage is good at bombastic rhetoric but nothing else.
I'm reminded of an old other-PB story, which I'll paraphrase.
"David Hasselhoff, at the height of his Knight Rider and early pop fame, was visiting apartheid South Africa. A bus pulled up and he tried to get on, but was told it was a bus "just for the blacks" so he wasn't allowed. He turned on the security team saying "David Hasselhoff might not be allowed, but Michael Knight sure can!" and leapt, dramatically, onto the bus to wild applause from the passengers."
I sometime watch the over-eager "head boy" Rishi in interviews and think of that story.
The people laughing at Starmer last night for saying his dad was a toolmaker for the zillionth time were apparently doing it out of disrespect and snobbery. Don’t think that’s quite what happened to be honest!
Wait till Starmer sees what pb said about his shirt on the last thread.
Maybe we've been looking in the wrong party for the Portillo moment of this election. It could be someone who would have had a place in Starmer's cabinet losing their seat unexpectedly to Reform.
Someone like Lisa Nandy could be vulnerable.
Can tell you aren't a Wiganer.
Her majority was slashed by 10k votes by BoJo and the Tory + Brexit Party vote last time was neck-and-neck with Labour.
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%
Baxtered:
Labour: 375 Reform: 127 LDs: 67 Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM
Reform have no real ground game, so I think your orgasmic reaction is misplaced. The Lib Dems are fighting their targets intensely. Reform have candidates that will explode and have no real target strategy beyond Clacton and Ashfield. IF you believe those numbers, then by all means go all in, but if I were you I would prepare to be very disappointed.
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%
Baxtered:
Labour: 375 Reform: 127 LDs: 67 Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM
Reform have no real ground game, so I think your orgasmic reaction is misplaced. The Lib Dems are fighting their targets intensely. Reform have candidates that will explode and have no real target strategy beyond Clacton and Ashfield. IF you believe those numbers, then by all means go all in, but if I were you I would prepare to be very disappointed.
Did you miss the *absurd but fun" bit?
Its certainly absurd, you have to have some grounding in reality, otherwise you end up like Grant Shapps, and who wants that?
Well, the reality is: Reform have just overtaken the Tories, and this with one of the most respected pollsters out there. THAT is the reality
Mmmm, is it? We have one pollster who says so in one poll. You're doing that Leon thing where you go from the existence of SOME evidence to bulletproof certainty in a flash.
PB, I am disappointed that I don't think one person had a guess at the answer to this question:
There once was a man called Farage Who ran a quite seedy garage He sold many used cars* And hung round in bars But the whole thing was a fucking mirage.
*That's a reference to one of his speeches. Will check back later to see if anyone got it.
Tactical voting on the right comes into play. This needs voter awareness of Reform/Tory strength in their constituencies
This assumes that the rump Tory support is willing to touch Reform with a ten foot bargepole. Hardly a given.
You are right, the 'rump' won't vote tactically, but the fringe might well
I don't know, is there anyone left in that Tory vote share who might still be willing to defect or are they down to the core?
I'd previously have said their core in a GE would be 30%, so I don't know. We're all guessing at this stage. Potentially some very odd things about to happen.
Tories are a broad church, from one-nationers to Manchester liberals, social conservatives, tradionalists, Thatcherites, Eurosceptics and Redwallers. Where is the core nowadays? It is hard to say
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%
Baxtered:
Labour: 375 Reform: 127 LDs: 67 Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM
Reform have no real ground game, so I think your orgasmic reaction is misplaced. The Lib Dems are fighting their targets intensely. Reform have candidates that will explode and have no real target strategy beyond Clacton and Ashfield. IF you believe those numbers, then by all means go all in, but if I were you I would prepare to be very disappointed.
The only party to knock on my door and hand deliver a leaflet - probably would have canvassed me but I was holding a meeting - has been Reform.
The reality at the moment is that YouGov have changed their methodology to one we've never seen before, so it's untested.
So they might get it spot on, they might not.
My scepticism with the current polls is that the ratings of the leaders and the polls are now becoming out of alignment, which previously has shown the polls up.
The people laughing at Starmer last night for saying his dad was a toolmaker for the zillionth time were apparently doing it out of disrespect and snobbery. Don’t think that’s quite what happened to be honest!
Actually no I’m with Starmer there. He’s defending his Dad and he’s a bit prickly about his Dad being laughed at. Good for Kir, stick up for the working classes, and defend your old man. Nowt wrong with that!
I am bemused at the polls all showing SKS and Labour's approval going up but yet the poll ratings going down. Sunak's own ratings continue to fall.
I am sceptical about this methodology change from YouGov.
Remember that SKS approval rating is not a function of approval for the other leaders, while Labour's vote share is a function of support for other parties.
It's possible that the absolute number of people who are going to vote Labour is actually increasing even while the proportion falls. Any drop in Reform support in particular could see Labour bump back up to the mid-40s.
And/or this is tactical. Labour to LD switchers are much more of a threat to the Tories than Reform voters coming out of the non-voting woodwork.
Biden: "I'm extremely proud of my son Hunter. He has overcome an addition ... I said I would abide by the jury decision. I will do that. I will not pardon him." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1801329832627741060
It does make me semi-question my focus on the bloc votes of LLG vs RefCon. On the basis Reform seems to be an anti-Tory vote and therefore takes some voters from other non-Tory parties.
The blocs are still useful reference points though, not least because there is very little volatility between polls. RefCon are up a bit - 1-2% in a few polls this week. But some of that may be DK or Labour switchers.
I predict the squeeze will start in earnest soon though, now people are focused on the election. Expect Con to rise at least 5, probably 7-8%, and Labour to recover 2-3%, mainly off Green and a bit of Ref. I think LD will settle close to or a bit below where ot is currently.
The people laughing at Starmer last night for saying his dad was a toolmaker for the zillionth time were apparently doing it out of disrespect and snobbery. Don’t think that’s quite what happened to be honest!
Actually no I’m with Starmer there. He’s defending his Dad and he’s a bit prickly about his Dad being laughed at. Good for Kir, stick up for the working classes, and defend your old man. Nowt wrong with that!
Absolutely no one was laughing at his dad and it's only his Po-faced nature which makes him unable to see that. They were laughing at his constant repetition of a strange line to try and claim he's a man of the people.
I am bemused at the polls all showing SKS and Labour's approval going up but yet the poll ratings going down. Sunak's own ratings continue to fall.
I am sceptical about this methodology change from YouGov.
Remember that SKS approval rating is not a function of approval for the other leaders, while Labour's vote share is a function of support for other parties.
It's possible that the absolute number of people who are going to vote Labour is actually increasing even while the proportion falls. Any drop in Reform support in particular could see Labour bump back up to the mid-40s.
And/or this is tactical. Labour to LD switchers are much more of a threat to the Tories than Reform voters coming out of the non-voting woodwork.
My feeling is that the changes are down to movement between Labour and the Lib Dems.
Biden: "I'm extremely proud of my son Hunter. He has overcome an addition ... I said I would abide by the jury decision. I will do that. I will not pardon him." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1801329832627741060
Classy.
That's how you respond to a court verdict, not like Trump.
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%
Baxtered:
Labour: 375 Reform: 127 LDs: 67 Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM
Reform have no real ground game, so I think your orgasmic reaction is misplaced. The Lib Dems are fighting their targets intensely. Reform have candidates that will explode and have no real target strategy beyond Clacton and Ashfield. IF you believe those numbers, then by all means go all in, but if I were you I would prepare to be very disappointed.
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%
Baxtered:
Labour: 375 Reform: 127 LDs: 67 Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM
Reform have no real ground game, so I think your orgasmic reaction is misplaced. The Lib Dems are fighting their targets intensely. Reform have candidates that will explode and have no real target strategy beyond Clacton and Ashfield. IF you believe those numbers, then by all means go all in, but if I were you I would prepare to be very disappointed.
Did you miss the *absurd but fun" bit?
Its certainly absurd, you have to have some grounding in reality, otherwise you end up like Grant Shapps, and who wants that?
Well, the reality is: Reform have just overtaken the Tories, and this with one of the most respected pollsters out there. THAT is the reality
Mmmm, is it? We have one pollster who says so in one poll. You're doing that Leon thing where you go from the existence of SOME evidence to bulletproof certainty in a flash.
I’m literally saying Reform have overtaken the Tories with ONE of our most respected pollsters
You’re doing that Farooq thing where you twist anything I say into fake and perverse gibberish coz you’ve got some weird obsession about me
Biden: "I'm extremely proud of my son Hunter. He has overcome an addition ... I said I would abide by the jury decision. I will do that. I will not pardon him." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1801329832627741060
He could always pardon Hunter if he loses the election - won't matter then.
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%
Baxtered:
Labour: 375 Reform: 127 LDs: 67 Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM
Reform have no real ground game, so I think your orgasmic reaction is misplaced. The Lib Dems are fighting their targets intensely. Reform have candidates that will explode and have no real target strategy beyond Clacton and Ashfield. IF you believe those numbers, then by all means go all in, but if I were you I would prepare to be very disappointed.
The only party to knock on my door and hand deliver a leaflet - probably would have canvassed me but I was holding a meeting - has been Reform.
Well, I did mention earlier that this election was a test of Yougov's credibility as the pre-eminent pollster.
Last week it was pointed out to me that other pollsters also had Reform at a certain level, but so far no-one else has Reform ahead. Either Yougov are the savvy old uncle, or they've got it wrong so far, but this poll is already taking a life of its own on social media, which might be what is significant.
Biden: "I'm extremely proud of my son Hunter. He has overcome an addition ... I said I would abide by the jury decision. I will do that. I will not pardon him." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1801329832627741060
Classy.
That's how you respond to a court verdict, not like Trump.
Biden is old and frail, but he's fundamentally decent. Trump is old and frail, and, well, I'll let people fill in the difference.
The people laughing at Starmer last night for saying his dad was a toolmaker for the zillionth time were apparently doing it out of disrespect and snobbery. Don’t think that’s quite what happened to be honest!
Actually no I’m with Starmer there. He’s defending his Dad and he’s a bit prickly about his Dad being laughed at. Good for Kir, stick up for the working classes, and defend your old man. Nowt wrong with that!
Didn't see it, but I can't imagine they were mocking his old man. Weren't they laughing at the tool hisself?
The trend seems to be that Labour after initially going up at the start of the campaign, has dropped to where it was before the campaign started - and Sunak has cratered the Tories.
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%
Baxtered:
Labour: 375 Reform: 127 LDs: 67 Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM
Reform have no real ground game, so I think your orgasmic reaction is misplaced. The Lib Dems are fighting their targets intensely. Reform have candidates that will explode and have no real target strategy beyond Clacton and Ashfield. IF you believe those numbers, then by all means go all in, but if I were you I would prepare to be very disappointed.
The only party to knock on my door and hand deliver a leaflet - probably would have canvassed me but I was holding a meeting - has been Reform.
Which seat?
West Lancashire. Safe Labour and the MP is off campaigning elsewhere, but it would be nice to see the useless local Conservatives humbled.
Biden: "I'm extremely proud of my son Hunter. He has overcome an addition ... I said I would abide by the jury decision. I will do that. I will not pardon him." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1801329832627741060
He could always pardon Hunter if he loses the election - won't matter then.
Or if he wins. Term limits (leaving aside biological ones).
But I can't help wondering if the person he (Biden) will offer a pardon to for all federal crimes if he wins is actually Trump.
It won't affect Georgia or New York but it would take much of the wind out of Republican sails.
David Lloyd George was not a Liberal when he was PM. He was suspended from the party in 1916 following his coup against Asquith and not readmitted until 1923.
See I knew you'd pick up on this.
I was going to originally say the last Liberal to be PM but Churchill complicated that.
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%
Baxtered:
Labour: 375 Reform: 127 LDs: 67 Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM
Reform have no real ground game, so I think your orgasmic reaction is misplaced. The Lib Dems are fighting their targets intensely. Reform have candidates that will explode and have no real target strategy beyond Clacton and Ashfield. IF you believe those numbers, then by all means go all in, but if I were you I would prepare to be very disappointed.
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%
Baxtered:
Labour: 375 Reform: 127 LDs: 67 Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM
Reform have no real ground game, so I think your orgasmic reaction is misplaced. The Lib Dems are fighting their targets intensely. Reform have candidates that will explode and have no real target strategy beyond Clacton and Ashfield. IF you believe those numbers, then by all means go all in, but if I were you I would prepare to be very disappointed.
Did you miss the *absurd but fun" bit?
Its certainly absurd, you have to have some grounding in reality, otherwise you end up like Grant Shapps, and who wants that?
Well, the reality is: Reform have just overtaken the Tories, and this with one of the most respected pollsters out there. THAT is the reality
Mmmm, is it? We have one pollster who says so in one poll. You're doing that Leon thing where you go from the existence of SOME evidence to bulletproof certainty in a flash.
I’m literally saying Reform have overtaken the Tories with ONE of our most respected pollsters
You’re doing that Farooq thing where you twist anything I say into fake and perverse gibberish coz you’ve got some weird obsession about me
Comments
Techne poll
But, instead, several PBers seem to be saying, explicitly or implicitly, that Labour should be more worried than the Tories
about the Faragasm.
Early days but I am currently ecstatic with my GE2024 bets
And indeed SKS fans please explain why Lab have gone from 46 to 37 in a week with YG
Will end up on 10% at that rate!!
Edit: that poll is dated tomorrow. Do they have one for the 4th July? Could save a lot of angst for everyone.
The somewhat dry* donnish figure who came from modest backgrounds via multiple scholarships to public school and Oxbridge but simply couldn't relate to ordinary people and wasn't especially smart at politics.
*Leaving aside the drinking and sex mania.
Because the methodology changed...
https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1801301642463019196
The people laughing at Starmer last night for saying his dad was a toolmaker for the zillionth time were apparently doing it out of disrespect and snobbery. Don’t think that’s quite what happened to be honest!
LAB + LD + GREEN = 58%
Hence the Lab majority - but one vulnerable to future swings and roundabouts. This isn't yet cross-over. It is one poll. However, this one poll may lead to cross-over. We will see
Even 37 is not nearly as bad for Labour as it might look.
It's not impossible.
Personally I still think it unlikely.
Any seat total above 350 and Starmer really does deserve to be spoken of in the same breath as Attlee.
Great to see America once more arming Ukraine after the delay by a Republican minority in Congress has been overcome.
Biden now pledging more aid to Ukraine including F16s and hinting at more Patriot missiles.
And $50bn of frozen Russian assets to fund military aid to Ukraine too. Good!
*Only about that.
I'd previously have said their core in a GE would be 30%, so I don't know. We're all guessing at this stage. Potentially some very odd things about to happen.
I am sceptical about this methodology change from YouGov.
That's the kind of publicity that changes things.
Is the one on the telly any better?
"David Hasselhoff, at the height of his Knight Rider and early pop fame, was visiting apartheid South Africa. A bus pulled up and he tried to get on, but was told it was a bus "just for the blacks" so he wasn't allowed. He turned on the security team saying "David Hasselhoff might not be allowed, but Michael Knight sure can!" and leapt, dramatically, onto the bus to wild applause from the passengers."
I sometime watch the over-eager "head boy" Rishi in interviews and think of that story.
Wonder what the data behind it shows.
https://x.com/yougov/status/1801338289422573581?s=61
So I'm claiming it for us.
Edit - bollocks, I forgot Churchill. But to be fair, if he qualifies so does Truss.
You're doing that Leon thing where you go from the existence of SOME evidence to bulletproof certainty in a flash.
There once was a man called Farage
Who ran a quite seedy garage
He sold many used cars*
And hung round in bars
But the whole thing was a fucking mirage.
*That's a reference to one of his speeches. Will check back later to see if anyone got it.
So they might get it spot on, they might not.
My scepticism with the current polls is that the ratings of the leaders and the polls are now becoming out of alignment, which previously has shown the polls up.
Lab 41 (-1)
Con 21 (-2)
Ref 14 (-2)
LD 12 (+3)
Grn 6 (=)
https://x.com/HugoGye/status/1801296925775233292
It's possible that the absolute number of people who are going to vote Labour is actually increasing even while the proportion falls. Any drop in Reform support in particular could see Labour bump back up to the mid-40s.
And/or this is tactical. Labour to LD switchers are much more of a threat to the Tories than Reform voters coming out of the non-voting woodwork.
https://www.techneuk.com/archive/
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1801329832627741060
The blocs are still useful reference points though, not least because there is very little volatility between polls. RefCon are up a bit - 1-2% in a few polls this week. But some of that may be DK or Labour switchers.
I predict the squeeze will start in earnest soon though, now people are focused on the election. Expect Con to rise at least 5, probably 7-8%, and Labour to recover 2-3%, mainly off Green and a bit of Ref. I think LD will settle close to or a bit below where ot is currently.
37-19?
37-18?
Apparently is 24
That's how you respond to a court verdict, not like Trump.
LAB 43 (-1)
CON 19 (-1)
REF 16 (+1)
LIB 11 (+1)
GRN 6 (=0)
SNP 2 (=0)
F/W 12-13 June
You’re doing that Farooq thing where you twist anything I say into fake and perverse gibberish coz you’ve got some weird obsession about me
LD 33%
Con 32%
Lab 23%
Conclusion, polls three weeks out are not always reliable.
Last week it was pointed out to me that other pollsters also had Reform at a certain level, but so far no-one else has Reform ahead. Either Yougov are the savvy old uncle, or they've got it wrong so far, but this poll is already taking a life of its own on social media, which might be what is significant.
I’ve told you once.
Anything else?
P S. Have YouGov changed their methodology?
But I can't help wondering if the person he (Biden) will offer a pardon to for all federal crimes if he wins is actually Trump.
It won't affect Georgia or New York but it would take much of the wind out of Republican sails.
And it would mean Trump admitting his guilt...
#Pedantry