Kaboom! Is Sunak the Tory David Lloyd George? – politicalbetting.com
The YouGov survey for The Times found that support for Reform had increased by two points to 19 per cent while the Tories were unchanged on 18 per cent.Overall Labour retained a 19-point lead over the Conservatives, while the Liberal Democrats were down one point at 14 per cent
Comments
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BOOOOOOOM0
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COME ON BIG NIGEL1
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Time for the Tories to stand aside and stop splitting the right - you can't fight a 2 party system!0
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Yep. They claim to be the patriotic party, well here is their chance to show it. Step aside and dissolve the party and get behind Farage and Reform, for the good of the nation and the Kingmaaarsh said:Time for the Tories to stand aside and stop splitting the right - you can't fight a 2 party system!
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David Lloyd George won World War I.
Rishi Sunak is no David Lloyd George.4 -
Could the Tories possibly end up in 4th?0
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Boris supported mass immigration/constantly lied.
Truss gave us the mini budget cluster***k
Rishi isn't a good communicator.
Edit: I forgot to mention that Brexit split the Tories.0 -
It would be a more impressive legacy than his length of tenure, or the D Day debacle.0
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I think Reform are now (temporarily) taking voters from both Tories and Labour.
This is the mid campaign version of the Cleggasm. They’ll fall back again in due course.1 -
The Tories need to fuck off and die, and we get a rightwing government that actually does rightwing things2
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New-fangled chart on Wikipedia:
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It could be argued that Boris is a Lloyd George figure? The destruction of the Tories arguably began with Mr Johnson?BartholomewRoberts said:David Lloyd George won World War I.
Rishi Sunak is no David Lloyd George.0 -
Clegg finished on 23%...TimS said:I think Reform are now (temporarily) taking voters from both Tories and Labour.
This is the mid campaign version of the Cleggasm. They’ll fall back again in due course.1 -
Conform 37
Labereen 58
Since we are seemingly adding party scores together now!4 -
No, there has never been a PM so inept.BartholomewRoberts said:David Lloyd George won World War I.
Rishi Sunak is no David Lloyd George.1 -
As a lot of us predicted, Farage wouldn't just take votes from the Tories. He's clearly also taking a small but not insignificant number of votes from Labour, which is why they're down to 37% in this poll.0
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This is exactly what the Tories were worried about, because from other polls showing rough stasis, this could turn into a snowball effect, if the media cover it enough.
Also, I think Yougov have got quite a good record of noticing paradigm changes.1 -
Kate Forbes doing well on BBCQT.
Time for the 7 way bunfight though...0 -
Was on a non-posting device this morning but read some loons attacking Nigel for running scared of serious journalists.
Given how many things you can have a pop at him over, making absolute rubbish up feels a bit needless - the bloke turns up to every debate he can, answers every half an hour of questions at every press event from all angles. It's the mainstream which tries to dodge scrutiny - he's just looking for any publicity he can get - and frankly coming under fire from left wing journalists helps his cause.0 -
Unless it's grumpy DKs deciding to throw their lot in with Nige, and Labour's support is unchanged (or, at the most, affected by some tactical switching to the Libs at the margins.) We just don't know, do we?Andy_JS said:As a lot of us predicted, Farage wouldn't just take votes from the Tories. He's clearly also taking a small but not insignificant number of votes from Labour, which is why they're down to 37% in this poll.
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I'm beginning to realise that I have woefully underestimated the amount of snacks I need for election night.6
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And so the incompetent are being surpassed by the filth...5
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I am beginning to wonder if the Tories will keep their number of MPs over 100. They look and feel demoralised and in a downward spiral.0
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Almost half of Liberal voters think a Labour super majority will be good for the country.
Tactical vote klaxon.0 -
Ludicrous. He may be a bad party leader and campaigner but that is not the same thing as being a bad prime minister. Few of the problems the next government will inherit are specifically down to Sunak and most are due to longstanding issues.Sean_F said:
No, there has never been a PM so inept.BartholomewRoberts said:David Lloyd George won World War I.
Rishi Sunak is no David Lloyd George.4 -
Recovering the loaned 2019 tory votes which inexplicably headed that way.Andy_JS said:As a lot of us predicted, Farage wouldn't just take votes from the Tories. He's clearly also taking a small but not insignificant number of votes from Labour, which is why they're down to 37% in this poll.
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It’s happened!0
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Farage admitted earlier that they haven't had time or resources to do proper vetting of their candidates. If their vote continues to rise, they will make the O'Mara saga look like a sideshow.Beibheirli_C said:And so the incompetent are being surpassed by the filth...
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Sunak has made problems worse not better.FrankBooth said:
Ludicrous. He may be a bad party leader and campaigner but that is not the same thing as being a bad prime minister. Few of the problems the next government will inherit are specifically down to Sunak and most are due to longstanding issues.Sean_F said:
No, there has never been a PM so inept.BartholomewRoberts said:David Lloyd George won World War I.
Rishi Sunak is no David Lloyd George.
Problems other Tories identified as needing fixing, Sunak has pandered to extremists to stand in their way and block even modest reforms.
Hunt to give him his due has tried to make things better, but by doing the opposite of Sunak.1 -
Alternatively, this is the start of a huge stagger through the wilderness, at the end of which a right wing party realises that there is a natural ceiling of support for the low tax, small state paradigm - and does a Cameron.Leon said:The Tories need to fuck off and die, and we get a rightwing government that actually does rightwing things
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Just imagine the sense of deja vu if Sunderland is declared for Reform on GE night.1
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Will be quite odd if the Tories are on 5 seats in the commons and a gazillion in the lords. Might speed up massive lords reform.0
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Labour only on 37% in that poll, that's the lowest in some time is it?0
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What snacks do you think you will need?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'm beginning to realise that I have woefully underestimated the amount of snacks I need for election night.
I think a box of chocolates might be a good option for a Labour-style snack. "Labour is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get." They've given precious little away in the manifesto...0 -
What low tax, small state paradigm?pigeon said:
Alternatively, this is the start of a huge stagger through the wilderness, at the end of which a right wing party realises that there is a natural ceiling of support for the low tax, small state paradigm - and does a Cameron.Leon said:The Tories need to fuck off and die, and we get a rightwing government that actually does rightwing things
Rishi Sunak has been higher tax, bigger state, than Gordon Brown.2 -
Albeit a long way less than a majority seem to want that. Voters, eh? Tsk!Leon said:The Tories need to fuck off and die, and we get a rightwing government that actually does rightwing things
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That's an interesting point. The insurgents only succeed by doing as many interviews or getting as much attention as they can. So it is no wonder they are then better prepared for the scrutiny of an election campaign than party insiders who generally avoid the media as much as possible.maaarsh said:Was on a non-posting device this morning but read some loons attacking Nigel for running scared of serious journalists.
Given how many things you can have a pop at him over, making absolute rubbish up feels a bit needless - the bloke turns up to every debate he can, answers every half an hour of questions at every press event from all angles. It's the mainstream which tries to dodge scrutiny - he's just looking for any publicity he can get - and frankly coming under fire from left wing journalists helps his cause.1 -
Blimey. Glad I held onto my trading bets. They might be held until the very end now.
Farage could not have hoped for betting timing. Tonight’s debate should be 100% him saying “I’m the only hope you have, Tory voters”2 -
Combined with jaded turnout and Keir is going to be a long way short of Jezza's vote total.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Labour only on 37% in that poll, that's the lowest in some time is it?
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What is this supermajority bollocks?
AIUI, the FTPA was the only instance of it ever being required. It has no place in our Constitution, therefore shouldn't be in our discourse.4 -
Since mid 2022, ill check.......BatteryCorrectHorse said:Labour only on 37% in that poll, that's the lowest in some time is it?
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I suspect that after another 5 years of crippling high taxes and no significant improvement in services as promised, that ceiling might be a lot higher than you expect.pigeon said:
Alternatively, this is the start of a huge stagger through the wilderness, at the end of which a right wing party realises that there is a natural ceiling of support for the low tax, small state paradigm - and does a Cameron.Leon said:The Tories need to fuck off and die, and we get a rightwing government that actually does rightwing things
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Imagine all the people living life in peace.williamglenn said:Just imagine the sense of deja vu if Sunderland is declared for Reform on GE night.
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Yep. I posted a weeks or so back - as soon as crossover occurs, if it gets media traction, you could get a self fulfilling prophecy. People think the Tories are useless, if a right wing alternative is SEEN to be viable, then it could become very interesting.WhisperingOracle said:This is exactly what the Tories were worried about, because from other polls showing rough stasis, this could turn into a snowball effect, if the media cover it enough.
Also, I think Yougov have got quite a good record of noticing paradigm changes.
And if the DM, Express and (unlikely; but given they’ve gone off a cliff, not impossible) Telegraph jump ship and endorse Farage, then…2 -
A large sack of popcorn and some Haribo for RIshi.LostPassword said:
What snacks do you think you will need?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'm beginning to realise that I have woefully underestimated the amount of snacks I need for election night.
I think a box of chocolates might be a good option for a Labour-style snack. "Labour is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get." They've given precious little away in the manifesto...0 -
The 38% was already the lowest Labour poll score since Truss became Tory leader. The last 37% was from a month before, at the beginning of August 2022.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Labour only on 37% in that poll, that's the lowest in some time is it?
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LoL
Lab: 37% (-1)
Reform: 19% (+2)
Con: 18% (nc)
Lib Dem: 14% (-1)
Green: 7 (-1)
SNP: 3 (+1)
Plaid: 1 (nc)
Other: 2 (+1)
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked0 -
Opinium 8 August 2022 and YouGov the day before both 37wooliedyed said:
Since mid 2022, ill check.......BatteryCorrectHorse said:Labour only on 37% in that poll, that's the lowest in some time is it?
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Definitely a trend now.
But SKS's personal ratings are still going up, intriguing.1 -
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%Sunil_Prasannan said:New-fangled chart on Wikipedia:
Baxtered:
Labour: 375
Reform: 127
LDs: 67
Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM0 -
Those 2019 Tory votes that were themselves 'loaned' inexplicably from Labour?maaarsh said:
Recovering the loaned 2019 tory votes which inexplicably headed that way.Andy_JS said:As a lot of us predicted, Farage wouldn't just take votes from the Tories. He's clearly also taking a small but not insignificant number of votes from Labour, which is why they're down to 37% in this poll.
Or maybe voters just give their vote out as they see fit at each election and get a fresh vote for the next election?2 -
Bookmakers have been asked by the Gambling Commission to trawl through all substantial bets placed on a July election after one of Rishi Sunak’s closest aides put a wager on the poll date just days before it was announced.
The prime minister said he was “disappointed” with the behaviour of Craig Williams, which was revealed in the Guardian, but neither would be drawn on whether they had discussed the date of the election prior to the bet being placed.
The watchdog has now asked bookmakers to provide information on all substantial bets on the timing of the election after odds shortened on a July poll in the week before the date was announced.
Williams, who is standing for re-election in Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, placed a £100 bet with Ladbrokes on a July poll. The Gambling Commission launched an inquiry after the bet was referred to them by the bookmaker.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/13/bookmakers-told-to-find-all-substantial-bets-placed-on-july-poll-after-sunak-aides-flutter1 -
Massive Labour majority. Reform second in the popular vote with 0-2 seats. Ed Davey as LOTO with 10% vote share. All within the bounds of reasonable possibility now.Anabobazina said:Almost half of Liberal voters think a Labour super majority will be good for the country.
Tactical vote klaxon.2 -
Oh @wooliedyed this is using YouGov's new methodology so can't be directly compared with 2022.0
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This has only happened because of Farage, and if Rishi had called the election at the same time as the American one he probably would have been too busy over there with Trump.6
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Well you'd need to be a bit more specific on that. He's hardly been in a strong enough position to push through big changes as he never had a personal mandate. Is this stuff from the 2019 manifesto he's blocked?BartholomewRoberts said:
Sunak has made problems worse not better.FrankBooth said:
Ludicrous. He may be a bad party leader and campaigner but that is not the same thing as being a bad prime minister. Few of the problems the next government will inherit are specifically down to Sunak and most are due to longstanding issues.Sean_F said:
No, there has never been a PM so inept.BartholomewRoberts said:David Lloyd George won World War I.
Rishi Sunak is no David Lloyd George.
Problems other Tories identified as needing fixing, Sunak has pandered to extremists to stand in their way and block even modest reforms.
Hunt to give him his due has tried to make things better, but by doing the opposite of Sunak.0 -
Interesting that you'd love to see 'democracy fooked'.bigjohnowls said:LoL
Lab: 37% (-1)
Reform: 19% (+2)
Con: 18% (nc)
Lib Dem: 14% (-1)
Green: 7 (-1)
SNP: 3 (+1)
Plaid: 1 (nc)
Other: 2 (+1)
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked3 -
Corollary to that is that if the Reform drop backs it won't all simply transfer to the Tories as some seem to believe would be the case.Andy_JS said:As a lot of us predicted, Farage wouldn't just take votes from the Tories. He's clearly also taking a small but not insignificant number of votes from Labour, which is why they're down to 37% in this poll.
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As someone observed the other day, Reforms optimum is a couple of seats, including Farage.IanB2 said:
Farage admitted earlier that they haven't had time or resources to do proper vetting of their candidates. If their vote continues to rise, they will make the O'Mara saga look like a sideshow.Beibheirli_C said:And so the incompetent are being surpassed by the filth...
If they get 2 dozen there are certain to be swivel-eyed loons amongst them with Fash friends, and soon falling out with each other and Nigel.
If they get none then Farage will deflate and rage from the sidelines and ineligible to lead a Con Ref merger.
Perhaps worse of all would be 2 dozen, but Farage not amongst them.2 -
I wonder if a panicked Sunak might now agree to a head-to-head debate with Farage?0
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What are Nigel's like by comparison?BatteryCorrectHorse said:Definitely a trend now.
But SKS's personal ratings are still going up, intriguing.0 -
Forget about snacks, what drinks did you have in mind?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'm beginning to realise that I have woefully underestimated the amount of snacks I need for election night.
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Note that this is using YouGov's new methodology, so on the previous one Labour would be just above 40%. This one is still untested and hasn't been used in an election before.
But the trend is the same, Labour has lost ground, it's just whether it's from 40 to 37 or from 48 to 45 to 42.0 -
HS2...FrankBooth said:
Well you'd need to be a bit more specific on that. He's hardly been in a strong enough position to push through big changes as he never had a personal mandate. Is this stuff from the 2019 manifesto he's blocked?BartholomewRoberts said:
Sunak has made problems worse not better.FrankBooth said:
Ludicrous. He may be a bad party leader and campaigner but that is not the same thing as being a bad prime minister. Few of the problems the next government will inherit are specifically down to Sunak and most are due to longstanding issues.Sean_F said:
No, there has never been a PM so inept.BartholomewRoberts said:David Lloyd George won World War I.
Rishi Sunak is no David Lloyd George.
Problems other Tories identified as needing fixing, Sunak has pandered to extremists to stand in their way and block even modest reforms.
Hunt to give him his due has tried to make things better, but by doing the opposite of Sunak.0 -
Attention will now turn to the Reform manifesto.
Will it contain the eyewatering spending cuts that Tice proposed?
Along with the slashing of NHS waiting lists?
And tax cuts?
Paid for by a cull of Diversity Officers?0 -
Tactical voting.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Definitely a trend now.
But SKS's personal ratings are still going up, intriguing.0 -
Yes true, but those were the last '37s' in any caseBatteryCorrectHorse said:Oh @wooliedyed this is using YouGov's new methodology so can't be directly compared with 2022.
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The new methodology also bumps Tories vs Reform - on the switch-over poll they were already level last week with the old methodology.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Note that this is using YouGov's new methodology, so on the previous one Labour would be just above 40%. This one is still untested and hasn't been used in an election before.
But the trend is the same, Labour has lost ground, it's just whether it's from 40 to 37 or from 48 to 45 to 42.1 -
I reckon Labour will be more worried by Reform than the Tories.0
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No. It would just remind current and potential Reform voters why they dislike him.williamglenn said:I wonder if a panicked Sunak might now agree to a head-to-head debate with Farage?
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Reform have no real ground game, so I think your orgasmic reaction is misplaced. The Lib Dems are fighting their targets intensely. Reform have candidates that will explode and have no real target strategy beyond Clacton and Ashfield. IF you believe those numbers, then by all means go all in, but if I were you I would prepare to be very disappointed.Leon said:
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%Sunil_Prasannan said:New-fangled chart on Wikipedia:
Baxtered:
Labour: 375
Reform: 127
LDs: 67
Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM2 -
That would be very foolish of him.williamglenn said:I wonder if a panicked Sunak might now agree to a head-to-head debate with Farage?
(So I guess it's a possibility, yeah.)4 -
Which is the perfect way to run a campaign if you can get away with it.LostPassword said:
What snacks do you think you will need?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'm beginning to realise that I have woefully underestimated the amount of snacks I need for election night.
I think a box of chocolates might be a good option for a Labour-style snack. "Labour is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get." They've given precious little away in the manifesto...
Generally the reason for putting stuff in the manifesto is either because you think it will be popular or because if you don't put it in then people will attack you for a lack of detail/honesty.
If you are already odds on to win as Labour are then really putting stuff into the manifesto is either likely to drive some voters away or it binds you into things you would really rather not do. It also limits what you can do after the election.
The ideal for any party coming ionto Givernment is to have as little in the manifesto as possible to tie your hands so you can do exactly what you want once you are in power.
It is a risk but I think in this case one that Labour are justified in taking. I am sure I will hate 95% of what they do after the election but looking at it rationally I can't fault their strategy right now.2 -
Yes, if Reform continue to rise, they become competitive in Labour Leave seats. That's the nightmare scenario for Labour.tlg86 said:I reckon Labour will be more worried by Reform than the Tories.
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The 2019 manifesto promised no increase in National Insurance - he increased it. As Chancellor, and Truss and Hunt both reversed which they both deserve credit for. Hunt is right, Sunak is wrong.FrankBooth said:
Well you'd need to be a bit more specific on that. He's hardly been in a strong enough position to push through big changes as he never had a personal mandate. Is this stuff from the 2019 manifesto he's blocked?BartholomewRoberts said:
Sunak has made problems worse not better.FrankBooth said:
Ludicrous. He may be a bad party leader and campaigner but that is not the same thing as being a bad prime minister. Few of the problems the next government will inherit are specifically down to Sunak and most are due to longstanding issues.Sean_F said:
No, there has never been a PM so inept.BartholomewRoberts said:David Lloyd George won World War I.
Rishi Sunak is no David Lloyd George.
Problems other Tories identified as needing fixing, Sunak has pandered to extremists to stand in their way and block even modest reforms.
Hunt to give him his due has tried to make things better, but by doing the opposite of Sunak.
One of the biggest problems facing the country today is the crippling lack of houses and growth, Sunak disgracefully stood in the way of even the modest amount of construction happening by reversing the mandatory housing targets in December 2022.0 -
He would be crazy to. He cannot debate, while Farage is good at bombastic rhetoric but nothing else.williamglenn said:I wonder if a panicked Sunak might now agree to a head-to-head debate with Farage?
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Did you not note my phrase “this is absurd but fun”Cicero said:
Reform have no real ground game, so I think your orgasmic reaction is misplaced. The Lib Dems are fighting their targets intensely. Reform have candidates that will explode and have no real target strategy beyond Clacton and Ashfield. IF you believe those numbers, then by all means go all in, but if I were you I would prepare to be very disappointed.Leon said:
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%Sunil_Prasannan said:New-fangled chart on Wikipedia:
Baxtered:
Labour: 375
Reform: 127
LDs: 67
Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM
It’s a lark
However I now give Reform at least a 10-20% chance of doing something remarkable in this election, like getting a larger popular vote than the Tories2 -
SKS fans please explainbigjohnowls said:LoL
Lab: 37% (-1)
Reform: 19% (+2)
Con: 18% (nc)
Lib Dem: 14% (-1)
Green: 7 (-1)
SNP: 3 (+1)
Plaid: 1 (nc)
Other: 2 (+1)
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked0 -
Do you think its healthy?Benpointer said:
Interesting that you'd love to see 'democracy fooked'.bigjohnowls said:LoL
Lab: 37% (-1)
Reform: 19% (+2)
Con: 18% (nc)
Lib Dem: 14% (-1)
Green: 7 (-1)
SNP: 3 (+1)
Plaid: 1 (nc)
Other: 2 (+1)
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked
0 -
On a point of order:
David Lloyd George was not a Liberal when he was PM. He was suspended from the party in 1916 following his coup against Asquith and not readmitted until 1923.4 -
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Yes, democracy is healthy.bigjohnowls said:
Do you think its healthy?Benpointer said:
Interesting that you'd love to see 'democracy fooked'.bigjohnowls said:LoL
Lab: 37% (-1)
Reform: 19% (+2)
Con: 18% (nc)
Lib Dem: 14% (-1)
Green: 7 (-1)
SNP: 3 (+1)
Plaid: 1 (nc)
Other: 2 (+1)
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked1 -
Cicero said:
Reform have no real ground game, so I think your orgasmic reaction is misplaced. The Lib Dems are fighting their targets intensely. Reform have candidates that will explode and have no real target strategy beyond Clacton and Ashfield. IF you believe those numbers, then by all means go all in, but if I were you I would prepare to be very disappointed.Leon said:
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%Sunil_Prasannan said:New-fangled chart on Wikipedia:
Baxtered:
Labour: 375
Reform: 127
LDs: 67
Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM
Did you miss the *absurd but fun" bit?Cicero said:
Reform have no real ground game, so I think your orgasmic reaction is misplaced. The Lib Dems are fighting their targets intensely. Reform have candidates that will explode and have no real target strategy beyond Clacton and Ashfield. IF you believe those numbers, then by all means goLeon said:
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%Sunil_Prasannan said:New-fangled chart on Wikipedia:
Baxtered:
Labour: 375
Reform: 127
LDs: 67
Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM
all in, but if I were you I would prepare to be very disappointed.
Edit. Leon's also made the obvious point.1 -
Yes. The LDs are getting a bit more visibility, and Labour seem secure enough (and the election near enough) for Lab supporters in appropriate constituencies to start telling pollsters that they *will* be voting LD rather than *hypothetically* voting Labour.Anabobazina said:
Tactical voting.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Definitely a trend now.
But SKS's personal ratings are still going up, intriguing.1 -
No, but I'm not the one claiming to love it, you are.bigjohnowls said:
Do you think its healthy?Benpointer said:
Interesting that you'd love to see 'democracy fooked'.bigjohnowls said:LoL
Lab: 37% (-1)
Reform: 19% (+2)
Con: 18% (nc)
Lib Dem: 14% (-1)
Green: 7 (-1)
SNP: 3 (+1)
Plaid: 1 (nc)
Other: 2 (+1)
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked0 -
Farage is also good at appearing relaxed and likeable (it’s something of an act, but he can do it), and he’s very good at skewering debating pointsFoxy said:
He would be crazy to. He cannot debate, while Farage is good at bombastic rhetoric but nothing else.williamglenn said:I wonder if a panicked Sunak might now agree to a head-to-head debate with Farage?
He’s a formidable campaigner (he’d probably be a shite prime minister unless he can delegate)3 -
So many right wing commentators are about to orgasm at this news, they have been looking forward to it for weeks.
Two options - some Tories are sufficiently scared at the party being destroyed that they return home to prevent that. Or the spiral continues.
I'm holding firm at 100-125 Tory seats. For now. If this is the score next week, it's sub 100.0 -
See I knew you'd pick up on this.ydoethur said:On a point of order:
David Lloyd George was not a Liberal when he was PM. He was suspended from the party in 1916 following his coup against Asquith and not readmitted until 1923.
I was going to originally say the last Liberal to be PM but Churchill complicated that.2 -
Labour's gap over Tories here is 19pts. If you look at the 'weighted sample' numbers in the tables, which presumably is where the old methodology would have settled, there's an implied gap of 25pts. Quite a difference.
https://x.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1801334462581497957
We need Survation to settle this1 -
Have to admit, this poll is a genuine KABOOOOOM - Doesn't happen very often, so savour it!6
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Tactical voting on the right comes into play. This needs voter awareness of Reform/Tory strength in their constituencies1
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Its certainly absurd, you have to have some grounding in reality, otherwise you end up like Grant Shapps, and who wants that?dixiedean said:Cicero said:
Reform have no real ground game, so I think your orgasmic reaction is misplaced. The Lib Dems are fighting their targets intensely. Reform have candidates that will explode and have no real target strategy beyond Clacton and Ashfield. IF you believe those numbers, then by all means go all in, but if I were you I would prepare to be very disappointed.Leon said:
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%Sunil_Prasannan said:New-fangled chart on Wikipedia:
Baxtered:
Labour: 375
Reform: 127
LDs: 67
Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM
Did you miss the *absurd but fun" bit?Cicero said:
Reform have no real ground game, so I think your orgasmic reaction is misplaced. The Lib Dems are fighting their targets intensely. Reform have candidates that will explode and have no real target strategy beyond Clacton and Ashfield. IF you believe those numbers, then by all means goLeon said:
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%Sunil_Prasannan said:New-fangled chart on Wikipedia:
Baxtered:
Labour: 375
Reform: 127
LDs: 67
Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM
all in, but if I were you I would prepare to be very disappointed.0 -
Yes Reform likely won’t do much if they stick around 19% but the point is if less-tuned in Tory voters start noticing what’s happening they *might* switch, and then who knows what will happen.
Of course it won’t be straightforward, but last week people were saying the same about Crossover.
We are in uncharted territory and uncharted things could happen.
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YouGov is now polling using the candidates by name and party in the voters constituency. I know because I was in this poll (as an Undecided). So increasingly we are seeing a sharpening of Tactical Voting.Andy_JS said:
SKS fans please explainbigjohnowls said:LoL
Lab: 37% (-1)
Reform: 19% (+2)
Con: 18% (nc)
Lib Dem: 14% (-1)
Green: 7 (-1)
SNP: 3 (+1)
Plaid: 1 (nc)
Other: 2 (+1)
Loving the 37% landslide mainly because i am on Lab less than 12.9m votes but also because democracy is fooked
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Spotted my first placard this morning - Ashfield Independent.
Chatting to a friend tonight where his street is blighted by a traveller take-over-and-develop-land-illegally problem. It's a genuine problem, of which I will say no more here.
He says his street is pretty much a Reform zone, since Lee Anderson has been giving them attention even now. He is not happy about Farage's Trump enthusiasm, and on Trump and the Republicult he is getting on for as contemptuous as I am.
Just popping out for an evening cycle around a couple of estates to see what placards are around.2 -
Wot? No Sir Ed Davey??0
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And the death of a major political party happens even less often. Savour it!GIN1138 said:Have to admit, this poll is a genuine KABOOOOOM poll - Doesn't happen very often, so savour it!
3 -
Maybe we've been looking in the wrong party for the Portillo moment of this election. It could be someone who would have had a place in Starmer's cabinet losing their seat unexpectedly to Reform.
Someone like Lisa Nandy could be vulnerable.0
