Starmer could be the greatest of all time – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Well, 19th July is the day the Ice Age ended (and Marathon became Snickers).Andy_JS said:
Like a lot of people probably, I can remember 19th July 2022 when it almost hit 40 degrees here. It was exhausting just to walk around for a few minutes in that heat.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My wife and I went from Adelaide to Alice Springs on the Ghan and of course we were in an air conditioned compartment throughout, but alighting off the train in Alice Springs it was in excess of 40c and the heat just took your breath away and walking to the air conditioned station was an effortMalmesbury said:
67 year old bloke in 40c heat starts to stagger about a bit. Wanders off in the wrong direction then sits down and dies.Benpointer said:
Knowledge ≠ common senseNunu5 said:Anyone else think the Micheal Moseley story doesn't make any sense?
As someone who studied medicine why would he not take loads of water with him?
It is a disabling heat and very sad Dr Mosley was overcome by it, but I can understand it though the coroner's report will be interesting
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jul/18/uk-weather-heatwave-boris-johnson-checked-out-airport-runways-closed0 -
Changes since GE2019ToryJim said:Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 35% (+8)
SNP: 34% (-3)
CON: 14% (-4)
LDM: 8% (=)
RFM: 5% (New)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @OpiniumResearch, 5-10 Jun.
Changes w/ 5-14 Sep 2023 (!).
Suspect that’s bad news for remaining Tories.
Lab +16%
SNP -11%
Con -11%
LD -1%
Grn +3%
Tories should hold their seats against the SNP if those figures are right.0 -
This, it seems to me, gets right to the heart of the real problem. It relates to housing, growth, migration, school absence, benefits culture, government expenditure, tax, NHS, the social contract and the social fabric. It has been massively disguised by the use of meaningless unemployment figures which in the world of common sense are many millions higher than the headline figure. We have been deceived and as a nation are deceiving ourselves.FrancisUrquhart said:This is unsustainable.....
In the three months to April, there were 9.43m people who were economically inactive in Britain, meaning they are neither in a job nor looking for one.
These included a record number of people out of work due to long-term sickness, which rose 55,000 to 2.83m.
It means the worklessness crisis has reached a scale that threatens to undermine the economy’s growth potential, according to Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-employment-wage-interest-rates/#1718088106516
The good news is that a new government could just possibly work on this in ways which are both popular with the majority (who don't form part of the 9 million) and don't necessarily cost hundreds of billions.0 -
During the 2022 heatwave when I was working at my home desk all day I decided to soak my t-shirt in the garden paddling pool and wear it wet. Chose white as that wouldn't look obviously saturated (or like sweat) on teams calls. With one or two top-ups during the afternoon it kept me completely cool all day. Definitely the way to go.Andy_JS said:
He was only 50 metres from the sea according to this.JohnLilburne said:
The issue is heat stroke, not dehydration. Water would only have made a difference if he tipped a lot of it over his head.Phil said:
That part of the cost is completely exposed to the sun as well - no shade. The temperature you actually experience out in the blazing sun is closer to 50℃. Death is inevitable if you stay out in that for long enough.Malmesbury said:
67 year old bloke in 40c heat starts to stagger about a bit. Wanders off in the wrong direction then sits down and dies.Benpointer said:
Knowledge ≠ common senseNunu5 said:Anyone else think the Micheal Moseley story doesn't make any sense?
As someone who studied medicine why would he not take loads of water with him?
There’s no mystery here: he overheated, got dizzy, sat down & passed out; the sun did the rest. Nature can be a harsh mistress.
https://news.sky.com/story/dr-michael-mosley-after-a-painstaking-four-day-search-tv-doctors-body-was-found-just-metres-from-safety-at-beach-resort-131503380 -
It’s absolutely fair to leave her out of it. If Labour had commented on Sunak’s wife, her background, wealth, career or family then it would be fair enough but they’ve not dragged her into politics at all so Mrs Starmer should be afforded the same courtesy.turbotubbs said:
Paywalled, so no, and also no interest in her at all. If that's why then good on her.Heathener said:
Did you read it? That’s the whole point of the article: explaining her reasoning for not being involved.turbotubbs said:
Because she is not standing for election so we have no need to know anything about her? I truly hate the tendency to have partners of politicians somehow involved.Heathener said:Good piece on Victoria, Keir Starmer’s wife
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/10/why-lady-victoria-starmer-is-being-kept-off-the-trail/0 -
They hold berwickshire and the rest are toss-up on those figures with Labour coming into the borders discussionAndy_JS said:
Changes since GE2019ToryJim said:Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 35% (+8)
SNP: 34% (-3)
CON: 14% (-4)
LDM: 8% (=)
RFM: 5% (New)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @OpiniumResearch, 5-10 Jun.
Changes w/ 5-14 Sep 2023 (!).
Suspect that’s bad news for remaining Tories.
Lab +16%
SNP -11%
Con -11%
LD -1%
Grn +3%
Tories should hold their seats against the SNP if those figures are right.1 -
Last week, Women and Equalities Minister Kemi Badenoch announced that the Conservatives would clarify the law regarding the protected characteristic of sex. As Sonia Sodha later reported, this provoked an “unhinged reaction” in certain quarters, as “lefty men with apparently zero understanding of the implications of this legal ambiguity jumped on the bandwagon to variously label [the proposal] as ‘ghastly’ and a ‘transphobic crusade’”......
...it’s not because we’ve been “radicalised” by dark forces stuffing our passive ladybrains with far-right propaganda. It’s because before, we didn’t think we’d need to clarify anything. Before, we trusted trans-identified males not to abuse our goodwill. We trusted “progressive” men not to start pretending not to know basic biology.....
.....With the trans question, it hardly needs stating, but to be blunt: we did not think men would take the piss, not in prisons, not in sports, not in rape crisis centres. And if some men did take the piss, we did at least think the average lefty man would speak up. By and large, they didn’t. This is what has led us to the point where sex needs clarifying under law. We all know what a female person is, but we also all know that, if you tell a certain type of man that you value female-only spaces, he will start waffling about genital inspections, clown fish, toxic debates, intersex people, policing people’s femininity and various other gambits which, you sense, he quite enjoys deploying (the birds get so wound up!).
https://thecritic.co.uk/lefty-mens-failures-have-radicalised-women/0 -
Time for another couple of ATACMS then.JosiasJessop said:Incidentally, whilst on the topic of bridges: the Russians have started using the Kerch rail bridge for heavy freight traffic once more. But there is not believed to have been much work done to it. Perhaps this is because they do not have enough ferries left?
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Yes I think people forget that temperatures approaching that level aren’t just “very hot/uncomfortable to be out in” and are actively energy sapping/dangerous to be out in for extended periods.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My wife and I went from Adelaide to Alice Springs on the Ghan and of course we were in an air conditioned compartment throughout, but alighting off the train in Alice Springs it was in excess of 40c and the heat just took your breath away and walking to the air conditioned station was an effortMalmesbury said:
67 year old bloke in 40c heat starts to stagger about a bit. Wanders off in the wrong direction then sits down and dies.Benpointer said:
Knowledge ≠ common senseNunu5 said:Anyone else think the Micheal Moseley story doesn't make any sense?
As someone who studied medicine why would he not take loads of water with him?
It is a disabling heat and very sad Dr Mosley was overcome by it, but I can understand it though the coroner's report will be interesting
A short walk to a shop or a restaurant, maybe. A hike uphill with no shade and limited/no water? Becoming very very dangerous, quickly.0 -
Being 50 metres away from water certainly won't help. Heatstroke kills, your internal organs shut down. He had been out exercising and gone off trail by all accounts with a fairly steep climb - your body temperature climbs until it no longer functions.Andy_JS said:
He was only 50 metres from the sea according to this.JohnLilburne said:
The issue is heat stroke, not dehydration. Water would only have made a difference if he tipped a lot of it over his head.Phil said:
That part of the cost is completely exposed to the sun as well - no shade. The temperature you actually experience out in the blazing sun is closer to 50℃. Death is inevitable if you stay out in that for long enough.Malmesbury said:
67 year old bloke in 40c heat starts to stagger about a bit. Wanders off in the wrong direction then sits down and dies.Benpointer said:
Knowledge ≠ common senseNunu5 said:Anyone else think the Micheal Moseley story doesn't make any sense?
As someone who studied medicine why would he not take loads of water with him?
There’s no mystery here: he overheated, got dizzy, sat down & passed out; the sun did the rest. Nature can be a harsh mistress.
https://news.sky.com/story/dr-michael-mosley-after-a-painstaking-four-day-search-tv-doctors-body-was-found-just-metres-from-safety-at-beach-resort-131503380 -
Slightly different, the markets know he’s not going to do these things because he won’t be in power whereas Truss actually was in power when she announced her intentions.bobbob said:Read that rishi is going full truss in the cons manifesto and promising hige tax cuts !!
surely he should have learned after what happened last time ??2 -
Have anyone seen any research on the recent increase in long-term sickness?DecrepiterJohnL said:
Lousy Telegraph subbing (and writing). The comparison is with working-age people, not workers as the headline has it.Alanbrooke said:
Ooh , should get the PB age fault lines going
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/higher-share-of-pensioners-pay-income-tax-than-workers/
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said 65pc of older Britons now pay tax on their income, up from just 48pc since 2010.
...
Meanwhile, the share of working-age people paying income tax stands at 63pc amid a jump in long-term sickness since Covid that has left 800,000 more people out of work.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/higher-share-of-pensioners-pay-income-tax-than-workers/
Is is mostly Covid-related, with people suffering from symptoms for months; is it an NHS capacity issue, resolvable by utilising private sector healthcare to clear waiting lists; or is it a mental health issue, with people who have simply lost the will to work and need coaching back to employment?0 -
It depends if you think Labour will get tough on worklessness and immigration.algarkirk said:
This, it seems to me, gets right to the heart of the real problem. It relates to housing, growth, migration, school absence, benefits culture, government expenditure, tax, NHS, the social contract and the social fabric. It has been massively disguised by the use of meaningless unemployment figures which in the world of common sense are many millions higher than the headline figure. We have been deceived and as a nation are deceiving ourselves.FrancisUrquhart said:This is unsustainable.....
In the three months to April, there were 9.43m people who were economically inactive in Britain, meaning they are neither in a job nor looking for one.
These included a record number of people out of work due to long-term sickness, which rose 55,000 to 2.83m.
It means the worklessness crisis has reached a scale that threatens to undermine the economy’s growth potential, according to Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-employment-wage-interest-rates/#1718088106516
The good news is that a new government could just possibly work on this in ways which are both popular with the majority (who don't form part of the 9 million) and don't necessarily cost hundreds of billions.
Getting people off long term sick is really hard, with the added complication of identifying the difference between people who genuinely can never work, those who could work with some support and those playing the system. It require strong leadership and willingness to take some really bad headlines due to mistakes, lots of edge case sob stories, etc.
The same with getting immigration down. Whatever rules you come up with there will be edge cases that seem unfair.0 -
Having chosen her, the Tories should have brazened it out with Truss. She proved that she had more political skills than Sunak in the leadership race and she would have saved more seats.0
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That was me. I was economically inactive from Feb until starting a new job last month. I didn't bother signing on because it seemed like a hassle for relative peanuts.FrancisUrquhart said:This is unsustainable.....
In the three months to April, there were 9.43m people who were economically inactive in Britain, meaning they are neither in a job nor looking for one.
These included a record number of people out of work due to long-term sickness, which rose 55,000 to 2.83m.
It means the worklessness crisis has reached a scale that threatens to undermine the economy’s growth potential, according to Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-employment-wage-interest-rates/#17180881065162 -
Um no - she was about to destroy everyone's pensions when she was removed.williamglenn said:Having chosen her, the Tories should have brazened it out with Truss. She proved that she had more political skills than Sunak in the leadership race and she would have saved more seats.
Her IR35 changes would have resulted in Employer NI dropping by £10bn at least0 -
I was out and about that day, walking in 40C from one clinic to another in search of a blood test (the NHS computer had mashed up their details and sent me to the wrong one). It did not seem too bad but on the walk back I nipped into Tescos for a quick blast of air conditioning. Then home on the bus.Andy_JS said:
Like a lot of people probably, I can remember 19th July 2022 when it almost hit 40 degrees here. It was exhausting just to walk around for a few minutes in that heat.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My wife and I went from Adelaide to Alice Springs on the Ghan and of course we were in an air conditioned compartment throughout, but alighting off the train in Alice Springs it was in excess of 40c and the heat just took your breath away and walking to the air conditioned station was an effortMalmesbury said:
67 year old bloke in 40c heat starts to stagger about a bit. Wanders off in the wrong direction then sits down and dies.Benpointer said:
Knowledge ≠ common senseNunu5 said:Anyone else think the Micheal Moseley story doesn't make any sense?
As someone who studied medicine why would he not take loads of water with him?
It is a disabling heat and very sad Dr Mosley was overcome by it, but I can understand it though the coroner's report will be interesting
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jul/18/uk-weather-heatwave-boris-johnson-checked-out-airport-runways-closed1 -
I do wonder about the long term sickness number and how much informal labour is going on under the radar. I know from talking to someone with direct experience that the benefits system despite appearances makes it very difficult to work part time if you are capable of working but not fit enough to work fully. So people get informal jobs and don't declare them.algarkirk said:
This, it seems to me, gets right to the heart of the real problem. It relates to housing, growth, migration, school absence, benefits culture, government expenditure, tax, NHS, the social contract and the social fabric. It has been massively disguised by the use of meaningless unemployment figures which in the world of common sense are many millions higher than the headline figure. We have been deceived and as a nation are deceiving ourselves.FrancisUrquhart said:This is unsustainable.....
In the three months to April, there were 9.43m people who were economically inactive in Britain, meaning they are neither in a job nor looking for one.
These included a record number of people out of work due to long-term sickness, which rose 55,000 to 2.83m.
It means the worklessness crisis has reached a scale that threatens to undermine the economy’s growth potential, according to Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-employment-wage-interest-rates/#1718088106516
The good news is that a new government could just possibly work on this in ways which are both popular with the majority (who don't form part of the 9 million) and don't necessarily cost hundreds of billions.
Morbidity and chronic illness mean many many people can work a day or two a week but can't cope with the full Monty. But in order to demonstrate they're ill enough for PIPs people have to avoid any hint they might be up for a bit of part time work.0 -
Did anything come from the "no mercy" tweet?0
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Thing is, if you have paid off your mortgage, you have some savings (because your mortgage was always relatively cheap, being based on pre-boom house prices), and you can release some capital by downsizing, or you have a chunky inheritance...algarkirk said:
This, it seems to me, gets right to the heart of the real problem. It relates to housing, growth, migration, school absence, benefits culture, government expenditure, tax, NHS, the social contract and the social fabric. It has been massively disguised by the use of meaningless unemployment figures which in the world of common sense are many millions higher than the headline figure. We have been deceived and as a nation are deceiving ourselves.FrancisUrquhart said:This is unsustainable.....
In the three months to April, there were 9.43m people who were economically inactive in Britain, meaning they are neither in a job nor looking for one.
These included a record number of people out of work due to long-term sickness, which rose 55,000 to 2.83m.
It means the worklessness crisis has reached a scale that threatens to undermine the economy’s growth potential, according to Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-employment-wage-interest-rates/#1718088106516
The good news is that a new government could just possibly work on this in ways which are both popular with the majority (who don't form part of the 9 million) and don't necessarily cost hundreds of billions.
Why would you keep working?1 -
Oh dear, Virginia Woolf’s London is not BACK.
https://x.com/naomirwolf/status/1800308369703461216?s=46&t=fJymV-V84rexmlQMLXHHJQ0 -
Many of the mental health issues will still be Covid-related.Sandpit said:
Have anyone seen any research on the recent increase in long-term sickness?DecrepiterJohnL said:
Lousy Telegraph subbing (and writing). The comparison is with working-age people, not workers as the headline has it.Alanbrooke said:
Ooh , should get the PB age fault lines going
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/higher-share-of-pensioners-pay-income-tax-than-workers/
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said 65pc of older Britons now pay tax on their income, up from just 48pc since 2010.
...
Meanwhile, the share of working-age people paying income tax stands at 63pc amid a jump in long-term sickness since Covid that has left 800,000 more people out of work.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/higher-share-of-pensioners-pay-income-tax-than-workers/
Is is mostly Covid-related, with people suffering from symptoms for months; is it an NHS capacity issue, resolvable by utilising private sector healthcare to clear waiting lists; or is it a mental health issue, with people who have simply lost the will to work and need coaching back to employment?0 -
Hilarious trolling 🙄williamglenn said:Having chosen her, the Tories should have brazened it out with Truss. She proved that she had more political skills than Sunak in the leadership race and she would have saved more seats.
1 -
Great post. Absolutely right. My father really suffered from early retirement. People need things to keep them occupied in life.FrancisUrquhart said:
Complete early retirement is terrible for the individual and the country. I have long thought the government needs to nudge towards having people gradually moving towards retirement where possible, 5 days a week to 4 days to 3 days, rather than Bob packing in on a Friday and never working again for 30+ years. It is better for the individual and also better for the country as organisations don't lose that knowledge and experience overnight.noneoftheabove said:
National service for the 50-65 early retired.....its only a weekend after all.....FrancisUrquhart said:This is unsustainable.....
In the three months to April, there were 9.43m people who were economically inactive in Britain, meaning they are neither in a job nor looking for one.
These included a record number of people out of work due to long-term sickness, which rose 55,000 to 2.83m.
It means the worklessness crisis has reached a scale that threatens to undermine the economy’s growth potential, according to Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-employment-wage-interest-rates/#17180881065160 -
I don’t know about anyone else but I’m looking forward to a bit of a change to single word slogans (CHANGE) under Labour rather than the Tories’ obsession with 3 phrases.0
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SCOTTISH POLL KLAXON?ToryJim said:Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 35% (+8)
SNP: 34% (-3)
CON: 14% (-4)
LDM: 8% (=)
RFM: 5% (New)
GRN: 4% (=)
Via @OpiniumResearch, 5-10 Jun.
Changes w/ 5-14 Sep 2023 (!).
Suspect that’s bad news for remaining Tories.0 -
Dissemination of the message that pineapple on pizza is bad, Radiohead are bad, and quoting Scottish sub-samples as if they were complete polls is a hanging offence.boulay said:
What is the ethos of the site?Benpointer said:On the subject of people on here having multiple IDs, I assume the mods can see the IP addresses and locations of posters, also their email addresses ofc.
Does using a VPN mask the former? Does that mean a person using two IDs would need to switch between or in and out of VPNs to avoid simple detection?
I'm just curious. Using multiple IDs coterminously should be banned if possible imo - it messes with the ethos of the site.2 -
Moi aussi, as the French uncounted unemployed say.Tres said:
That was me. I was economically inactive from Feb until starting a new job last month. I didn't bother signing on because it seemed like a hassle for relative peanuts.FrancisUrquhart said:This is unsustainable.....
In the three months to April, there were 9.43m people who were economically inactive in Britain, meaning they are neither in a job nor looking for one.
These included a record number of people out of work due to long-term sickness, which rose 55,000 to 2.83m.
It means the worklessness crisis has reached a scale that threatens to undermine the economy’s growth potential, according to Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-employment-wage-interest-rates/#17180881065160 -
Macron's decision to call a snap general election may be as disastrous as Sunak's. The first poll from Harris puts RN on the cusp of a majority.0
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Goes with the "interviewers should ask leaders how many children they have - they might get some surprising answers" shit that was being spread round a few days ago.FrancisUrquhart said:Staines stirring the pot with this story again,
https://order-order.com/2024/06/11/telegraph-starmers-wife-being-kept-off-campaign-trail/
If it has an "October surprise", not sure it will make any difference.
Not hard to imagine how this sort of innuendo might rebound badly on CCHQ and their cheerleaders.0 -
My father did as well. Fortunately he realised it wasn't doing him any good, physically or mentally, and went back to work. I credit the extra 10 years of work with him still being alive today at a ripe old age.Anabobazina said:
Great post. Absolutely right. My father really suffered from early retirement. People need things to keep them occupied in life.FrancisUrquhart said:
Complete early retirement is terrible for the individual and the country. I have long thought the government needs to nudge towards having people gradually moving towards retirement where possible, 5 days a week to 4 days to 3 days, rather than Bob packing in on a Friday and never working again for 30+ years. It is better for the individual and also better for the country as organisations don't lose that knowledge and experience overnight.noneoftheabove said:
National service for the 50-65 early retired.....its only a weekend after all.....FrancisUrquhart said:This is unsustainable.....
In the three months to April, there were 9.43m people who were economically inactive in Britain, meaning they are neither in a job nor looking for one.
These included a record number of people out of work due to long-term sickness, which rose 55,000 to 2.83m.
It means the worklessness crisis has reached a scale that threatens to undermine the economy’s growth potential, according to Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-employment-wage-interest-rates/#17180881065160 -
Colloquial name for Saint Edmund Hall one of the Oxford colleges.Daveyboy1961 said:
Who is/was Teddy Hall? Does he have a brother called Kelvin or Albert?sbjme19 said:
Yes Teddy Hall.OldKingCole said:
Didn’t Starmer do a post-grad at Oxford?kinabalu said:
Malmesbury or FU? No, they are serious serious guys. But, yes, spot on viz Leon. Serial monogamist. As for you, ok I'm on the lookout now then. It's my speciality so I'll soon bust you.Selebian said:
For some reason I'd always assumed that was Malmesbury or maybe FrancisUrquhart, seems too subtle to Leon, he'd surely post "LAUNCH!" or "BRACE!"kinabalu said:
He doesn't have all these "sock puppets", it's a PB urban myth. One he does have is tridentsubcommander - who once in a blue moon will pop up and post "test".Selebian said:
Are you hanging up your boots as Leonfinder General?BatteryCorrectHorse said:I offer a sincere apology to @Heathener for saying she was Leon. I did genuinely believe you were but I accept I was wrong. My apologies to you.
Most amusing.
I'm also of the view that Leon generally only has one ID at a time - there have been brief periods when a couple alternate or are more or less concurrent, I believe, particularly when he's going through a rebirth.
I, on the other hand, have lots
But anyway, enough of the fluff, there's an election on and what an election it is shaping up to be. Is SKS, this relatable man from an ordinary background, no public school, no Oxbridge, is this decent, clever, diligent, non-showy son of a toolmaker really about to win the biggest landslide victory in British electoral history? He just might, you know.0 -
Lost the will to work sounds like my local GP surgery.Sandpit said:
Have anyone seen any research on the recent increase in long-term sickness?DecrepiterJohnL said:
Lousy Telegraph subbing (and writing). The comparison is with working-age people, not workers as the headline has it.Alanbrooke said:
Ooh , should get the PB age fault lines going
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/higher-share-of-pensioners-pay-income-tax-than-workers/
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said 65pc of older Britons now pay tax on their income, up from just 48pc since 2010.
...
Meanwhile, the share of working-age people paying income tax stands at 63pc amid a jump in long-term sickness since Covid that has left 800,000 more people out of work.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/higher-share-of-pensioners-pay-income-tax-than-workers/
Is is mostly Covid-related, with people suffering from symptoms for months; is it an NHS capacity issue, resolvable by utilising private sector healthcare to clear waiting lists; or is it a mental health issue, with people who have simply lost the will to work and need coaching back to employment?3 -
Camilla Tominey
@CamillaTominey
Lovely catering ladies
@SilverstoneUK
tell me they offered to serve breakfast croissants etc to the assembled press this morning but the Conservatives declined. So we now have a group of hangry journos covering the manifesto launch 🚀 🧐😂
https://x.com/CamillaTominey/status/1800463882311663738
Yes it's a few quid but little things like that that may make the Q&As slightly less awkward...1 -
Jeez. There weren't any boat crossings until after 2018 when the returns agreement with the EU ceased and it ceased to be possible to return illegal boat migrants to France, in response to which the boat crossings started.Benpointer said:
Here's another ad with porky pies:Big_G_NorthWales said:
What a ridiculous advertToryJim said:Tory Campaign is useless (pt 94)
https://x.com/pickardje/status/1800464741732847673?s=46
It is not just Sunak but all those round him who are utterly clueless
Never mind, in just over three weeks they will be history (and not the one they hoped for)
WHAT'S CHANGED SINCE 2010?
- BOAT CROSSINGS DOWN BY 36%
- SPENDING ON OUR ARMED FORCES UP TO 2.5% OF GDP
https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/18004352326484463220 -
Good for him, and you. That is encouraging to hear. Sadly no such will on the part of my dad, who continues to decline.FrancisUrquhart said:
My father did as well. Fortunately he realised it wasn't doing him any good, physically or mentally, and went back to work. I credit the extra 10 years of work with him still being alive today at a ripe old age.Anabobazina said:
Great post. Absolutely right. My father really suffered from early retirement. People need things to keep them occupied in life.FrancisUrquhart said:
Complete early retirement is terrible for the individual and the country. I have long thought the government needs to nudge towards having people gradually moving towards retirement where possible, 5 days a week to 4 days to 3 days, rather than Bob packing in on a Friday and never working again for 30+ years. It is better for the individual and also better for the country as organisations don't lose that knowledge and experience overnight.noneoftheabove said:
National service for the 50-65 early retired.....its only a weekend after all.....FrancisUrquhart said:This is unsustainable.....
In the three months to April, there were 9.43m people who were economically inactive in Britain, meaning they are neither in a job nor looking for one.
These included a record number of people out of work due to long-term sickness, which rose 55,000 to 2.83m.
It means the worklessness crisis has reached a scale that threatens to undermine the economy’s growth potential, according to Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-employment-wage-interest-rates/#17180881065160 -
Sounds about right. Ken Livingstone made London safe for property developers, and now even the "protected" views of St Paul's Cathedral are under threat. Bloomsbury is still relatively unscathed.Theuniondivvie said:Oh dear, Virginia Woolf’s London is not BACK.
https://x.com/naomirwolf/status/1800308369703461216?s=46&t=fJymV-V84rexmlQMLXHHJQ0 -
And we have not been spending 2.5% of GDP on defence at any point in this Parliament. It is an aspiration for the future.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Jeez. There weren't any boat crossings until after 2018 when the returns agreement with the EU ceased and it ceased to be possible to return illegal boat migrants to France, in response to which the boat crossings started.Benpointer said:
Here's another ad with porky pies:Big_G_NorthWales said:
What a ridiculous advertToryJim said:Tory Campaign is useless (pt 94)
https://x.com/pickardje/status/1800464741732847673?s=46
It is not just Sunak but all those round him who are utterly clueless
Never mind, in just over three weeks they will be history (and not the one they hoped for)
WHAT'S CHANGED SINCE 2010?
- BOAT CROSSINGS DOWN BY 36%
- SPENDING ON OUR ARMED FORCES UP TO 2.5% OF GDP
https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1800435232648446322
Apart from that, a compelling argument.2 -
We did however have significant numbers hiding in lorries. Isn't the small boats a function that the land border became extremely tight, where you can't get anywhere near the tunnel loading areas and lorries don't stop within 20-30 miles before they get there.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Jeez. There weren't any boat crossings until after 2018 when the returns agreement with the EU ceased and it ceased to be possible to return illegal boat migrants to France, in response to which the boat crossings started.Benpointer said:
Here's another ad with porky pies:Big_G_NorthWales said:
What a ridiculous advertToryJim said:Tory Campaign is useless (pt 94)
https://x.com/pickardje/status/1800464741732847673?s=46
It is not just Sunak but all those round him who are utterly clueless
Never mind, in just over three weeks they will be history (and not the one they hoped for)
WHAT'S CHANGED SINCE 2010?
- BOAT CROSSINGS DOWN BY 36%
- SPENDING ON OUR ARMED FORCES UP TO 2.5% OF GDP
https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1800435232648446322
The small boat is an evolution and found that because both French and British will help you out if stuck in the channel, it is actually superior option in some ways (albeit more dangerous).1 -
-
Is Keir Starmer another Leon sock puppet? CHANGE, BRACE, PURGE.numbertwelve said:I don’t know about anyone else but I’m looking forward to a bit of a change to single word slogans (CHANGE) under Labour rather than the Tories’ obsession with 3 phrases.
1 -
The theory I read was that he thinks if they win they'll quickly stuff it up, clearing the ground for his Presidential run.Sean_F said:Macron's decision to call a snap general election may be as disastrous as Sunak's. The first poll from Harris puts RN on the cusp of a majority.
1 -
Somewhat similar to Von Papen's reasoning in 1932/33.CarlottaVance said:
The theory I read was that he thinks if they win they'll quickly stuff it up, clearing the ground for his Presidential run.Sean_F said:Macron's decision to call a snap general election may be as disastrous as Sunak's. The first poll from Harris puts RN on the cusp of a majority.
5 -
I assume it's like the Sanchez strategy in Spain last year.ToryJim said:
Depends what his grand plan is. Assuming he has one.Sean_F said:Macron's decision to call a snap general election may be as disastrous as Sunak's. The first poll from Harris puts RN on the cusp of a majority.
"Fash are on the rise. If the rest of us don't unite, they'll win, so unite behind moi."0 -
I was in the Northern Peruvian desert when it 40+, a while back.Andy_JS said:
Like a lot of people probably, I can remember 19th July 2022 when it almost hit 40 degrees here. It was exhausting just to walk around for a few minutes in that heat.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My wife and I went from Adelaide to Alice Springs on the Ghan and of course we were in an air conditioned compartment throughout, but alighting off the train in Alice Springs it was in excess of 40c and the heat just took your breath away and walking to the air conditioned station was an effortMalmesbury said:
67 year old bloke in 40c heat starts to stagger about a bit. Wanders off in the wrong direction then sits down and dies.Benpointer said:
Knowledge ≠ common senseNunu5 said:Anyone else think the Micheal Moseley story doesn't make any sense?
As someone who studied medicine why would he not take loads of water with him?
It is a disabling heat and very sad Dr Mosley was overcome by it, but I can understand it though the coroner's report will be interesting
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jul/18/uk-weather-heatwave-boris-johnson-checked-out-airport-runways-closed
The comment about shade temperature is exactly right - the locals were trying (and succeeding) in frying an egg on a piece of blackened tin, out in the sun. Nearly everyone went into hiding - apart from the army. Who ran acclimatisation exercises that killed soldiers.0 -
Seems a high risk strategy. The old "its a good election to lose" rarely works out well, as people having the levers of power provides a good advantage.CarlottaVance said:
The theory I read was that he thinks if they win they'll quickly stuff it up, clearing the ground for his Presidential run.Sean_F said:Macron's decision to call a snap general election may be as disastrous as Sunak's. The first poll from Harris puts RN on the cusp of a majority.
1 -
Are you sure you aren't Leon's sock puppet account ;-)Malmesbury said:
I was in the Northern Peruvian desert when it 40+, a while back.Andy_JS said:
Like a lot of people probably, I can remember 19th July 2022 when it almost hit 40 degrees here. It was exhausting just to walk around for a few minutes in that heat.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My wife and I went from Adelaide to Alice Springs on the Ghan and of course we were in an air conditioned compartment throughout, but alighting off the train in Alice Springs it was in excess of 40c and the heat just took your breath away and walking to the air conditioned station was an effortMalmesbury said:
67 year old bloke in 40c heat starts to stagger about a bit. Wanders off in the wrong direction then sits down and dies.Benpointer said:
Knowledge ≠ common senseNunu5 said:Anyone else think the Micheal Moseley story doesn't make any sense?
As someone who studied medicine why would he not take loads of water with him?
It is a disabling heat and very sad Dr Mosley was overcome by it, but I can understand it though the coroner's report will be interesting
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jul/18/uk-weather-heatwave-boris-johnson-checked-out-airport-runways-closed
The comment about shade temperature is exactly right - the locals were trying (and succeeding) in frying an egg on a piece of blackened tin, out in the sun. Nearly everyone went into hiding - apart from the army. Who ran acclimatisation exercises that killed soldiers.0 -
It's not an issue of the Conservatives being too right wing or too left wing.DavidL said:
And we have not been spending 2.5% of GDP on defence at any point in this Parliament. It is an aspiration for the future.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Jeez. There weren't any boat crossings until after 2018 when the returns agreement with the EU ceased and it ceased to be possible to return illegal boat migrants to France, in response to which the boat crossings started.Benpointer said:
Here's another ad with porky pies:Big_G_NorthWales said:
What a ridiculous advertToryJim said:Tory Campaign is useless (pt 94)
https://x.com/pickardje/status/1800464741732847673?s=46
It is not just Sunak but all those round him who are utterly clueless
Never mind, in just over three weeks they will be history (and not the one they hoped for)
WHAT'S CHANGED SINCE 2010?
- BOAT CROSSINGS DOWN BY 36%
- SPENDING ON OUR ARMED FORCES UP TO 2.5% OF GDP
https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1800435232648446322
Apart from that, a compelling argument.
It's an issue of their rhetoric bearing no relation to reality. You can't claim to be the party of defence, and cut the army by 30,000; the party of law and order, and run down the criminal justice system. The party of immigration control, and fail to control immigration.3 -
I see Sunak now trying the 'Don't hand them a Landslide" defence.
The most successful democratic party in the world reduced to this.
LOL.3 -
Do you think this is Sunak's cunning plan? Let Labour have a super majority so they can cock everything up so we will give the Tories another 14 years!CarlottaVance said:
The theory I read was that he thinks if they win they'll quickly stuff it up, clearing the ground for his Presidential run.Sean_F said:Macron's decision to call a snap general election may be as disastrous as Sunak's. The first poll from Harris puts RN on the cusp of a majority.
1 -
Manifesto is out says Sky0
-
Indeed, William. Wise, wise words. No doubt TRUSS would have taken the fight to Labour and run home with a good working majority, probably in the 80-120 seat range. I think it was your namesake William Congreve who said: "Act in haste, repent at leisure." Words as true today as when he uttered them in the late 1600s.williamglenn said:Having chosen her, the Tories should have brazened it out with Truss. She proved that she had more political skills than Sunak in the leadership race and she would have saved more seats.
1 -
What makes Leon’s sock stand up so it can be used as a puppet?FrancisUrquhart said:
Are you sure you aren't Leon's sock puppetMalmesbury said:
I was in the Northern Peruvian desert when it 40+, a while back.Andy_JS said:
Like a lot of people probably, I can remember 19th July 2022 when it almost hit 40 degrees here. It was exhausting just to walk around for a few minutes in that heat.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My wife and I went from Adelaide to Alice Springs on the Ghan and of course we were in an air conditioned compartment throughout, but alighting off the train in Alice Springs it was in excess of 40c and the heat just took your breath away and walking to the air conditioned station was an effortMalmesbury said:
67 year old bloke in 40c heat starts to stagger about a bit. Wanders off in the wrong direction then sits down and dies.Benpointer said:
Knowledge ≠ common senseNunu5 said:Anyone else think the Micheal Moseley story doesn't make any sense?
As someone who studied medicine why would he not take loads of water with him?
It is a disabling heat and very sad Dr Mosley was overcome by it, but I can understand it though the coroner's report will be interesting
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jul/18/uk-weather-heatwave-boris-johnson-checked-out-airport-runways-closed
The comment about shade temperature is exactly right - the locals were trying (and succeeding) in frying an egg on a piece of blackened tin, out in the sun. Nearly everyone went into hiding - apart from the army. Who ran acclimatisation exercises that killed soldiers.
account ;-)
0 -
The other thing about getting the long-term unemployed back to work is that employers won't touch them with a barge pole, especially those with mental health issues.FrancisUrquhart said:
It depends if you think Labour will get tough on worklessness and immigration.algarkirk said:
This, it seems to me, gets right to the heart of the real problem. It relates to housing, growth, migration, school absence, benefits culture, government expenditure, tax, NHS, the social contract and the social fabric. It has been massively disguised by the use of meaningless unemployment figures which in the world of common sense are many millions higher than the headline figure. We have been deceived and as a nation are deceiving ourselves.FrancisUrquhart said:This is unsustainable.....
In the three months to April, there were 9.43m people who were economically inactive in Britain, meaning they are neither in a job nor looking for one.
These included a record number of people out of work due to long-term sickness, which rose 55,000 to 2.83m.
It means the worklessness crisis has reached a scale that threatens to undermine the economy’s growth potential, according to Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-employment-wage-interest-rates/#1718088106516
The good news is that a new government could just possibly work on this in ways which are both popular with the majority (who don't form part of the 9 million) and don't necessarily cost hundreds of billions.
Getting people off long term sick is really hard, with the added complication of identifying the difference between people who genuinely can never work, those who could work with some support and those playing the system. It require strong leadership and willingness to take some really bad headlines due to mistakes, lots of edge case sob stories, etc.
The same with getting immigration down. Whatever rules you come up with there will be edge cases that seem unfair.0 -
I've done some work around this. Only about 1/2 of the increase in waiting lists is a post-COVID phenomenon - the rest is consistent with a long term trend. Indeed, it would be quite an achievement just to keep them flat over the next 5 years considering the underlying growth in chronic conditions.Sandpit said:
Have anyone seen any research on the recent increase in long-term sickness?DecrepiterJohnL said:
Lousy Telegraph subbing (and writing). The comparison is with working-age people, not workers as the headline has it.Alanbrooke said:
Ooh , should get the PB age fault lines going
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/higher-share-of-pensioners-pay-income-tax-than-workers/
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said 65pc of older Britons now pay tax on their income, up from just 48pc since 2010.
...
Meanwhile, the share of working-age people paying income tax stands at 63pc amid a jump in long-term sickness since Covid that has left 800,000 more people out of work.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/higher-share-of-pensioners-pay-income-tax-than-workers/
Is is mostly Covid-related, with people suffering from symptoms for months; is it an NHS capacity issue, resolvable by utilising private sector healthcare to clear waiting lists; or is it a mental health issue, with people who have simply lost the will to work and need coaching back to employment?
Even while economic inactivity fell from 2010 to 2019 due to a fall in early retirement and fewer people looking after family, it continued to grow for long-term sickness throughout. Note also that a large chunk of COVID-19 inactivity was due to people going back into education during the lockdowns. It's only from 2022 onward that long term sickness has started to dominate; delayed operations and mental health.
There is also a sense that health related benefits are much more tolerable to claim for. Less pestering/demonisation from DWP. This does not suggest that this is fraud. Instead, if you have a long term condition it makes more sense to claim on the basis than simply being out of work. So the number of people with long term conditions might have been simply hidden all this time.
(Remember that private healthcare is simply reshuffling the waiting list. It makes very little difference to overall capacity for operations, mental health interventions and so on. )2 -
According to The Times, Labour aren't bothering to campaign in Tory seats with majorities of less than 5,000.0
-
Macron's on his second term, he can't run again sfaikCarlottaVance said:
The theory I read was that he thinks if they win they'll quickly stuff it up, clearing the ground for his Presidential run.Sean_F said:Macron's decision to call a snap general election may be as disastrous as Sunak's. The first poll from Harris puts RN on the cusp of a majority.
2 -
Will we get a last minute manifesto rabbit out of hat?0
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I heard a theory that he's ok with that. Sully the far right with some government so they can't run for president as insurgents who can just moan and push buttons and make wild promises.Sean_F said:Macron's decision to call a snap general election may be as disastrous as Sunak's. The first poll from Harris puts RN on the cusp of a majority.
0 -
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This was arguably Rhodes Boyson's finest hour?Leon said:In answer to @TimS’s question, yes there was a goat-like politician. Dr Rhodes Boyson
One for the PB kids, there
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTnx6whPjsw
On imperial measures: "Whoever bought a kilo of anything? ...apart from me mate Dave. And he is doing a five-year stretch."2 -
Sunak can't even start his launch on time.0
-
First 60 or so. Seems reasonable. Twitter had it at 3,000 and below this morning but yeah, they gornAndy_JS said:According to The Times, Labour aren't bothering to campaign in Tory seats with majorities of less than 5,000.
0 -
I see the new BBC Director of Sport has got off to a great start.....blocking Martina Navratilova....
This is pretty pathetic- never heard of this man, looked him up here and found myself blocked.
Once again, good to know that men apparently know what women like myself and Sharron know about biology and sports etc. Just amazing to be this confident, no?
https://x.com/Martina/status/1800284121073147923
0 -
Nothing on IHT
Sunak doesn't care about the Tory party that much is clear0 -
Well you can, apparently, but the results seem to be sub-optimal.Sean_F said:
It's not an issue of the Conservatives being too right wing or too left wing.DavidL said:
And we have not been spending 2.5% of GDP on defence at any point in this Parliament. It is an aspiration for the future.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Jeez. There weren't any boat crossings until after 2018 when the returns agreement with the EU ceased and it ceased to be possible to return illegal boat migrants to France, in response to which the boat crossings started.Benpointer said:
Here's another ad with porky pies:Big_G_NorthWales said:
What a ridiculous advertToryJim said:Tory Campaign is useless (pt 94)
https://x.com/pickardje/status/1800464741732847673?s=46
It is not just Sunak but all those round him who are utterly clueless
Never mind, in just over three weeks they will be history (and not the one they hoped for)
WHAT'S CHANGED SINCE 2010?
- BOAT CROSSINGS DOWN BY 36%
- SPENDING ON OUR ARMED FORCES UP TO 2.5% OF GDP
https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1800435232648446322
Apart from that, a compelling argument.
It's an issue of their rhetoric bearing no relation to reality. You can't claim to be the party of defence, and cut the army by 30,000; the party of law and order, and run down the criminal justice system. The party of immigration control, and fail to control immigration.1 -
Manifesto is out? Or manifesto is out on its costings?rottenborough said:Manifesto is out says Sky
0 -
If they want to save a few seats. I'm not convinced Sunak doesrottenborough said:Will we get a last minute manifesto rabbit out of hat?
0 -
Another beaut day as I leave Kyiv for Odessa
They might have - within living memory - suffered one of history’s greatest famines, the Stalinist Terror, utter conquest by the Nazis, the genocide of the Jews, reconquest by Stalin, the grim years of Soviet decay, a bloody independence and a revolution, and now another hideous war with 200,000 dead and 7 million refugees and a third of the country brutally occupied BUT they have rather nice summers. Better than London
So its swings and roundabouts1 -
LOL. I think the latter is already a given. It is magic money tree morning.Benpointer said:
Manifesto is out? Or manifesto is out on its costings?rottenborough said:Manifesto is out says Sky
1 -
"Thailand wants you to move there for work on digital nomad visa"
https://news.sky.com/story/money-euro-holidays-interest-rates-mortgages-inflation-taxes-latest-sky-news-blog-130409340 -
My Dad went from being an Acting Superintendent (Police) to nothing overnight. My mum was still at work and they had recently moved into a new build house (so no maintenance required etc). I think he was lost for a few years. Spent long days walking on Salisbury Plain, mainly, I think, for something to do.Anabobazina said:
Great post. Absolutely right. My father really suffered from early retirement. People need things to keep them occupied in life.FrancisUrquhart said:
Complete early retirement is terrible for the individual and the country. I have long thought the government needs to nudge towards having people gradually moving towards retirement where possible, 5 days a week to 4 days to 3 days, rather than Bob packing in on a Friday and never working again for 30+ years. It is better for the individual and also better for the country as organisations don't lose that knowledge and experience overnight.noneoftheabove said:
National service for the 50-65 early retired.....its only a weekend after all.....FrancisUrquhart said:This is unsustainable.....
In the three months to April, there were 9.43m people who were economically inactive in Britain, meaning they are neither in a job nor looking for one.
These included a record number of people out of work due to long-term sickness, which rose 55,000 to 2.83m.
It means the worklessness crisis has reached a scale that threatens to undermine the economy’s growth potential, according to Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-employment-wage-interest-rates/#1718088106516
He did adjust in the end - gained an allotment (he had had a decent veg patch before the move) and dabbled in restoring Dinky toys and building model remote controlled aircraft. But I think it was a shock.1 -
Why brief for months on IHT?Nunu5 said:Nothing on IHT
Sunak doesn't care about the Tory party that much is clear
Just madness.
imho it was the one thing that might get them a listen again in Blue Wall.0 -
Indeed although for Labour the low hanging fruit goes quite a way up the tree they could probably ignore anything with a Tory majority of 10k and still win 90% of them.Andy_JS said:According to The Times, Labour aren't bothering to campaign in Tory seats with majorities of less than 5,000.
0 -
If/when a link to the manifesto pdf arrives, please post it on here someone!0
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Shades of Its a Royal Knockouteek said:Camilla Tominey
@CamillaTominey
Lovely catering ladies
@SilverstoneUK
tell me they offered to serve breakfast croissants etc to the assembled press this morning but the Conservatives declined. So we now have a group of hangry journos covering the manifesto launch 🚀 🧐😂
https://x.com/CamillaTominey/status/1800463882311663738
Yes it's a few quid but little things like that that may make the Q&As slightly less awkward...0 -
Another 24 days of this execrable performance to endure. It’s no wonder that even the politically engaged are tuning out the campaigns entirely: it’s just day after day of pointless shit flinging we all have to get through until the election day when we will finally put the Cons out of their misery.rottenborough said:I see Sunak now trying the 'Don't hand them a Landslide" defence.
The most successful democratic party in the world reduced to this.
LOL.1 -
Having read various theories I think his fear is that his party's candidate might not make the runoff in the Presidential election and it could be Melenchon vs Le Pen, which she would win. To avoid this he wants to force the mainstream parties into an alliance.ToryJim said:
Depends what his grand plan is. Assuming he has one.Sean_F said:Macron's decision to call a snap general election may be as disastrous as Sunak's. The first poll from Harris puts RN on the cusp of a majority.
This would go badly wrong if Le Pen actually won a majority and could impose a PM on Macron that he doesn't want.0 -
Who's speaking, is that Gillian Keegan?0
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The problem with that is that the National Ramblers aren’t RefUK. They have been in various levels of government in France for a while. Their period of “weirdos who crashed out when given power” was decades back.CarlottaVance said:
The theory I read was that he thinks if they win they'll quickly stuff it up, clearing the ground for his Presidential run.Sean_F said:Macron's decision to call a snap general election may be as disastrous as Sunak's. The first poll from Harris puts RN on the cusp of a majority.
0 -
I’ve been going there for nearly 2 decades now - family.FrancisUrquhart said:
Are you sure you aren't Leon's sock puppet account ;-)Malmesbury said:
I was in the Northern Peruvian desert when it 40+, a while back.Andy_JS said:
Like a lot of people probably, I can remember 19th July 2022 when it almost hit 40 degrees here. It was exhausting just to walk around for a few minutes in that heat.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My wife and I went from Adelaide to Alice Springs on the Ghan and of course we were in an air conditioned compartment throughout, but alighting off the train in Alice Springs it was in excess of 40c and the heat just took your breath away and walking to the air conditioned station was an effortMalmesbury said:
67 year old bloke in 40c heat starts to stagger about a bit. Wanders off in the wrong direction then sits down and dies.Benpointer said:
Knowledge ≠ common senseNunu5 said:Anyone else think the Micheal Moseley story doesn't make any sense?
As someone who studied medicine why would he not take loads of water with him?
It is a disabling heat and very sad Dr Mosley was overcome by it, but I can understand it though the coroner's report will be interesting
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jul/18/uk-weather-heatwave-boris-johnson-checked-out-airport-runways-closed
The comment about shade temperature is exactly right - the locals were trying (and succeeding) in frying an egg on a piece of blackened tin, out in the sun. Nearly everyone went into hiding - apart from the army. Who ran acclimatisation exercises that killed soldiers.0 -
Extending this to further opinion polls.LostPassword said:
This is my view. Take the latest three opinion polls as a random sample and comparing to the last pre-campaign poll for each firm.mwadams said:
"They will inevitably drift back up"TimS said:I reckon the final margin will be a bit under 20%. In the last 2 weeks Reform will drift back (and Green will continue their slow decline, especially if there's a successful Gaza ceasefire) and that will give back a few percentage points to the Tories and one or two to Labour. In the competition I have Tory 31% and I think Labour 40%.
Though Rishi does keep trying his damndest to stretch that winning margin further.
All the Tory wipeout scenarios come from them getting very low vote share, rather than Labour getting a very high one. They will inevitably drift back up which is why an ELE is simply not on the cards. But I don't expect Labour to drift down particularly.
While I agree that *surely* that is what is going to happen (?!), I had assumed that we would have seen that effect by now.
In fact, we've had 20 of the 43 days of the campaign - nearly half way through - and things are only getting worse.
Redfield & Wilton. Tories on 19%, down 4, Labour lead is up by 4.
JL Partners. Tories on 24%, down 2, Labour lead is up by 2.
Deltapoll. Tories on 21%, down 2, Labour lead is up by 3.
Obviously, in the privacy of the polling booth, strange things sometimes happen. The pencil hovers, the voter is wracked by uncertainty and doubt.
I'm still uncertain about the outcome, but the uncertainty is symmetrical. There could be late moves further against the Tories, or reluctant Tories might return to the fold. An ELE is definitely possible if Sunak's campaign continues to be poor.
We Think. Tories on 20%, down 3, Labour lead is up by 2.
Opinium. Tories on 24%, down 1, Labour lead is unchanged.
Savanta. Tories on 26%, unchanged, Labour lead is up by 3.
More in Common. Tories on 25%, down 2, Labour lead is up by 5.
Whitestone Insight. Tories on 22%, down 2, Labour lead is unchanged.
YouGov. Tories on 19%, down 2, Labour lead is down by 3 (but methodology change)
Techne. Tories on 20%, down 1, Labour lead is up by 1.
Survation. Tories on 23%, down 4, Labour lead is down by 1.
BMG. Tories on 23%, down 2, Labour lead is up by 3.
Ipsos. Tories on 23%, up 3, Labour lead is down by 1.
Aggregate the changes across these thirteen polling firms and the Tories are an average of 1.7pp down, with the Labour lead up by an average of 1.4pp, over the pre-manifesto period of the election campaign.1 -
.
Aren’t Labour saying what you want on immigration? They’re not opposed to all immigration, they don’t hate immigrants, but they are saying they will decrease it from current levels.kyf_100 said:
I see myself as left of centre on social issues and right of centre economically, although probably further right economically with some fairly extremely liberal social views - legalise drugs, trans self ID, etc. Quite what that makes me, I have no idea. Classically liberal on steroids, I guess.JosiasJessop said:I see myself as slightly left-of-centre on social issues (or perhaps centrist...), and right-of-centre economically.
That should be perfect Conservative-voting territory. Sadly, there is absolutely nothing that could convince me to vote Conservative this year.
Fortunately there are seven candidates standing in my constituency this time; much better than three in 2019 (due to the Lib Dem/Green stitch-up...)
Incidentally, one of our candidates is one of the sixteen "Party of Women" candidates standing at this GE. So that should really be six options...
Like you, there is nothing in the world that could convince me to vote Conservative this year, even though I'm pretty certain Labour will hit me with more taxes, we might at least get a competent government out of it. The Conservatives are no longer the party of business, nor are they the party of homeowners, nor are they the party of staying out of other people's business.
But the thing that has infuriated me most about the campaign so far is that neither the Tories nor Labour are talking anything sensible on immigration. I'm a metropolitan Londoner and I believe that a reasonable amount of immigration is good for the country, from both an economic and societal perspective. Unfortunately what we have is an unreasonable amount of immigration, that's unsustainable given the levels of infrastructure development in the country and also leaves me deeply worried about integration - concerns that have risen drastically since the rise of antisemitism since last year.
I wouldn't vote for the odious, dog whistling racists in Reform ('doesn't understand our culture', 'London taken over by Islamists' etc) but I think a serious conversation about immigration needs to be had, before our society's infrastructure and cultural cohesion begins to break down. So where do I go? Who do I vote for? I want to vote for a party that has answers on immigration, without hating immigrants.
It's genuinely infuriating, because it *is* a problem to which none of the main parties has an answer, and the only people willing to discuss it are dog-whistling racists. I'd like to see it tackled before it drives even more people into the arms of the far right.3 -
True but the President in the 5th Republic retains a lot of power even in periods of cohabitation.williamglenn said:
Having read various theories I think his fear is that his party's candidate might not make the runoff in the Presidential election and it could be Melenchon vs Le Pen, which she would win. To avoid this he wants to force the mainstream parties into an alliance.ToryJim said:
Depends what his grand plan is. Assuming he has one.Sean_F said:Macron's decision to call a snap general election may be as disastrous as Sunak's. The first poll from Harris puts RN on the cusp of a majority.
This would go badly wrong if Le Pen actually won a majority and could impose a PM on Macron that he doesn't want.0 -
My Dad’s employer made the nearly fatal mistake of dismissing the father of a City employment lawyer on the grounds he was getting too old. With the proceeds of shooting that particular fish in a barrel he managed to annoy my mother, who was hoping to retire first and have a few years sorting the house out with him at work, until he drew his pension.turbotubbs said:
My Dad went from being an Acting Superintendent (Police) to nothing overnight. My mum was still at work and they had recently moved into a new build house (so no maintenance required etc). I think he was lost for a few years. Spent long days walking on Salisbury Plain, mainly, I think, for something to do.Anabobazina said:
Great post. Absolutely right. My father really suffered from early retirement. People need things to keep them occupied in life.FrancisUrquhart said:
Complete early retirement is terrible for the individual and the country. I have long thought the government needs to nudge towards having people gradually moving towards retirement where possible, 5 days a week to 4 days to 3 days, rather than Bob packing in on a Friday and never working again for 30+ years. It is better for the individual and also better for the country as organisations don't lose that knowledge and experience overnight.noneoftheabove said:
National service for the 50-65 early retired.....its only a weekend after all.....FrancisUrquhart said:This is unsustainable.....
In the three months to April, there were 9.43m people who were economically inactive in Britain, meaning they are neither in a job nor looking for one.
These included a record number of people out of work due to long-term sickness, which rose 55,000 to 2.83m.
It means the worklessness crisis has reached a scale that threatens to undermine the economy’s growth potential, according to Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-employment-wage-interest-rates/#1718088106516
He did adjust in the end - gained an allotment (he had had a decent veg patch before the move) and dabbled in restoring Dinky toys and building model remote controlled aircraft. But I think it was a shock.4 -
That looks tempting.Andy_JS said:"Thailand wants you to move there for work on digital nomad visa"
https://news.sky.com/story/money-euro-holidays-interest-rates-mortgages-inflation-taxes-latest-sky-news-blog-13040934
I'm in the biggest work slump of my freelance career and the grand or two I make a month would go much further outside the UK. Combine that with a potential incoming wealth tax (I earn little, but I used to earn a lot, so have plenty of assets) and it becomes a no-brainer. I was previously looking at Portugal, but it's probably not much cheaper living than the UK.
I can't imagine I'm the only person making the same calculation.0 -
Seems a thorough summary!Phil said:
Another 24 days of this execrable performance to endure. It’s no wonder that even the politically engaged are tuning out the campaigns entirely: it’s just day after day of pointless shit flinging we all have to get through until the election day when we will finally put the Cons out of their misery.rottenborough said:I see Sunak now trying the 'Don't hand them a Landslide" defence.
The most successful democratic party in the world reduced to this.
LOL.0 -
Is that 9.43m working age, or does that include pensioners?FrancisUrquhart said:This is unsustainable.....
In the three months to April, there were 9.43m people who were economically inactive in Britain, meaning they are neither in a job nor looking for one.
These included a record number of people out of work due to long-term sickness, which rose 55,000 to 2.83m.
It means the worklessness crisis has reached a scale that threatens to undermine the economy’s growth potential, according to Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-employment-wage-interest-rates/#1718088106516
"Economic inactivity" is not always a bad thing; my wife is having her last day in the office today (she works from home a mere 175 miles away from the office apart from 1 day a month), as we have a baby due in July. I think it's very unlikely she'll go back to work at least until we're done having kids.
From the statistically point of view, she's going to become pretty economically inactive (from a well paid job), however back in the real world we've just decided we would rather enjoy our kids growing up ourselves rather than subcontract it out as childcare, so she can go back to work, which won't pay much more than the cost of said childcare.
It's bad news for the taxman as they lose out on tax on her income, and tax on the nursery business's profits, plus the income tax the nursery staff would have paid, and as an extra whammy in our situation she can have £12.5k virtually tax free out of my business in return for doing my accounts paperwork for me, and I'll take home a bit less taxed at my marginal tax rate, but it's a no-brainer of a decision for us as a family.
Children being brought up by their parents almost certainly have better outcomes than children dumped into nursery care at the earliest possible age, so it's probably better for the country too.
4 -
Is Houchen aiming to filibuster the GE?0
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What could possibly go wrong with that?kinabalu said:
I heard a theory that he's ok with that. Sully the far right with some government so they can't run for president as insurgents who can just moan and push buttons and make wild promises.Sean_F said:Macron's decision to call a snap general election may be as disastrous as Sunak's. The first poll from Harris puts RN on the cusp of a majority.
0 -
@singharj
There are zero pictures of Rishi Sunak, or any of the Cabinet, in the Tory manifesto.
@MrHarryCole
Awaiting Sunak at Tory manifesto launch at Silverstone…
Labour have already called it the “most expensive panic attack in history”.0 -
@LibDems
We now cross live to the Conservative manifesto launch at Silverstone:
https://x.com/LibDems/status/18004753733289084358 -
Sounds like a great choice you and your wife have made - there are so many more important things than getting richer.theProle said:
Is that 9.43m working age, or does that include pensioners?FrancisUrquhart said:This is unsustainable.....
In the three months to April, there were 9.43m people who were economically inactive in Britain, meaning they are neither in a job nor looking for one.
These included a record number of people out of work due to long-term sickness, which rose 55,000 to 2.83m.
It means the worklessness crisis has reached a scale that threatens to undermine the economy’s growth potential, according to Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-employment-wage-interest-rates/#1718088106516
"Economic inactivity" is not always a bad thing; my wife is having her last day in the office today (she works from home a mere 175 miles away from the office apart from 1 day a month), as we have a baby due in July. I think it's very unlikely she'll go back to work at least until we're done having kids.
From the statistically point of view, she's going to become pretty economically inactive (from a well paid job), however back in the real world we've just decided we would rather enjoy our kids growing up ourselves rather than subcontract it out as childcare, so she can go back to work, which won't pay much more than the cost of said childcare.
It's bad news for the taxman as they lose out on tax on her income, and tax on the nursery business's profits, plus the income tax the nursery staff would have paid, and as an extra whammy in our situation she can have £12.5k virtually tax free out of my business in return for doing my accounts paperwork for me, and I'll take home a bit less taxed at my marginal tax rate, but it's a no-brainer of a decision for us as a family.
Children being brought up by their parents almost certainly have better outcomes than children dumped into nursery care at the earliest possible age, so it's probably better for the country too.0 -
Andy_JS said:
"Thailand wants you to move there for work on digital nomad visa"
https://news.sky.com/story/money-euro-holidays-interest-rates-mortgages-inflation-taxes-latest-sky-news-blog-13040934
It is extremely tempting. It appears to say No tax at all. But we need the small print. We also need to know how much time you HAVE to spend in Thailand - I’m gonna look at it tonightkyf_100 said:
That looks tempting.Andy_JS said:"Thailand wants you to move there for work on digital nomad visa"
https://news.sky.com/story/money-euro-holidays-interest-rates-mortgages-inflation-taxes-latest-sky-news-blog-13040934
I'm in the biggest work slump of my freelance career and the grand or two I make a month would go much further outside the UK. Combine that with a potential incoming wealth tax (I earn little, but I used to earn a lot, so have plenty of assets) and it becomes a no-brainer. I was previously looking at Portugal, but it's probably not much cheaper living than the UK.
I can't imagine I'm the only person making the same calculation.
If it’s as flexible as it appears then it’s highly generous. Bangkok is also a great hub for flights all over Asia and europe - lots of them cheap0 -
And on Brass Eye from memory.wooliedyed said:1
