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Could the Conservatives Really Come Third? – politicalbetting.com

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  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    On the Telegraph point below, parts of it have really already become the Daily Nigel, from what I can see.

    "Pugnacious Farage leaves rivals reeling, in BBC debate".
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,062

    ToryJim said:

    kle4 said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.

    One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.

    Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?

    And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?

    Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
    I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of
    maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes

    The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
    Wise words
    I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
    I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.

    I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.

    One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
    DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
    I read a management book which noted such things have been around for decades in one form or another yet things often seem unchanged or worse.

    Their suggestion, and in fairness I don't know if it was backed up with evidence, was it works much better when genuinely voluntary, as people are usually happy to engage then, but make it mandatory and they switch off as it's a box tick or a lecture. And that can be counterproductive and cause resentment.

    I did a session recently which was quite good as things go, felt like a genuine conversation and didnt do a common thing of dismissing any concerns, but they messed up by including an external video which was literally an anti-capitalist screen which barely even related to DEI.
    Just so: there's definitely something in listening to other people with different experiences.

    Why does it need to be ruined by a lecturing that you should feel a sense of shame for who you are too?
    Since England has lost religion we no longer get God botherers just plain botherers.
    We have the NHS, founded by the apostle Clement Attlee.
    At least we no longer have the evening act of worship from the Covid era.
    Always surprises me that the people didn't clap the most important people in society like the bankers, politicians, private health profiteers and equity fund managers.

    Strange that
    Can console themselves their man who will represent the important peoples interests is about to win.

    Either brand of Tory on offer
    Farage or Sunak?
    Farage is a Trumpian, and only a few of the more deluded Tories (Truss) think that this is a good idea.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    I've just realised that I've got individual constituency seat bets on Lab, Con, LD, Greens and Reform and feeling good about all of them.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,185

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Jim, the public applauding of the NHS at a designated time was cultish and creepy.

    Indeed Mr Dancer, I even had an anonymous note from my neighbours expressing their displeasure that I didn’t behave like a programmed automaton.
    How many words was your response?
    Zero.
    Can I ask you a question which is bugging me?

    Are you really a Tory as per your name?
    Yes and no. By inclination I lean towards the centre right but I’m no longer a party member and will probably vote elsewhere this time.

    Like most people if they’d admit it some of my views skew righter than others, some skew left. Even when I was a Tory member I was never slavishly adherent to every single thing they came up with.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,792

    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    It looks like the Tories are going to put the abolition of NI in their manifesto as an ambition when the country can afford it .

    The problem here is how on earth the country could ever afford to lose that much revenue . And it’s risky because of the shadow of Truss . Given NI does go towards pensions if pensioners think it could effect that then it’s a problem for the Tories .

    Well indeed. The obvious question to Tory politicians is what further tax rises to make up the shortfall have they got planned above the increased tax bill of £3 018 already planned for the next parliament.

    Figure from the Spectator:

    https://x.com/FraserNelson/status/1799162430360019134?t=uJ9VFyEvdpxkm1kBGrjE_g&s=19
    well since Reeves is clinging limpet like to Hunts plans thats also a Labour £3018 tax rise.

    And then on top there will be Labour's own tax rises. Reeves reported to be looking at 12 additional rises.
    That's why the £2,000 Labour tax-rise resonates - we all know it's going to be true.

    The only inaccuracy is that it's an underestimate.
    You do know that it resonates because everyone is looking at the record taxes they are paying for broken public services, and listening to you Tories claim to have cut taxes and think "lying sods".

    The more you repeat it, the more people are clear that you are absurd liars. Look at the polls this week. It is playing *the opposite* of what you just said.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    ToryJim said:

    kle4 said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.

    One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.

    Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?

    And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?

    Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
    I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of
    maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes

    The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
    Wise words
    I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
    I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.

    I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.

    One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
    DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
    I read a management book which noted such things have been around for decades in one form or another yet things often seem unchanged or worse.

    Their suggestion, and in fairness I don't know if it was backed up with evidence, was it works much better when genuinely voluntary, as people are usually happy to engage then, but make it mandatory and they switch off as it's a box tick or a lecture. And that can be counterproductive and cause resentment.

    I did a session recently which was quite good as things go, felt like a genuine conversation and didnt do a common thing of dismissing any concerns, but they messed up by including an external video which was literally an anti-capitalist screen which barely even related to DEI.
    Just so: there's definitely something in listening to other people with different experiences.

    Why does it need to be ruined by a lecturing that you should feel a sense of shame for who you are too?
    Since England has lost religion we no longer get God botherers just plain botherers.
    We have the NHS, founded by the apostle Clement Attlee.
    At least we no longer have the evening act of worship from the Covid era.
    Always surprises me that the people didn't clap the most important people in society like the bankers, politicians, private health profiteers and equity fund managers.

    Strange that
    They had financial reward enough.

    Cheaper to applaud Doctors and Nurses with pots and pans on a Thursday evening than increase their pay by 30%.
    My GP friend ( now retired ) refused to play pots and pans as he thinks most doctors are work shirking chancers.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894

    It was a relief to see that Reform managed to put up a candidate at the last minute in my constituency of Tewkesbury, Gloucestershire. It should help the LD to win and bring in my bet at 7/1 [currently 9/2 and still value].

    One has the impression he scribbled his statement hurriedly before the deadline. I think he's about 15.

    Here it is:


    'We, unfortunately, lost our seat in Barnwood and only lost by 3 votes In podsmead, it was a great campaign and it just proves us residents wont be taken for granted we won't take anymore!

    Next year in 2021 the conservatives will come back harder and we will win! I understand how the election was so close between us and the liberals possibily over brexit! I am a Brexiteer and we must respect democracy deliver Brexit and the conservatives will be on the up!

    I would like to say thank you to the 200 people that voted for me it was an honour at such a young age to receive so much support I will continue to help podsmead residents and never let them down I am passionate hardworking reliable and won't let residents down.

    2021 here the conservatives come!

    Podsmead will soon understand how much it means to have a councillor who lives in the area.

    Once again thank you.

    Byron'

    Here in Stratford upon Avon we have the prospect of a split LD vote. The former mayor of Stratford (LD) is standing as an independent.
    Very interesting, Alan. It looks an open contest.

    At a glance, I'd suggest a Con hold would be the value at 4/5.

    Thoughts?
    The Lib Dems are canvassing for the first time in living memory. They must be hopeful
  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 168

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    ToryJim said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.

    One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.

    Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?

    And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?

    Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
    I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of
    maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes

    The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
    Wise words
    I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
    I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.

    I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.

    One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
    DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
    What it does mean is that HR departments can justify their existence and then take other employees time away from productive activities to try to indoctrinate them into the hive mind.
    No, DEI training is mostly defensive. So if one of my Trusts staff acts or speaks in a non-inclusive way to other staff or patients they can be appropriately disciplined. They cannot defend themselves by claiming to be unaware of the Equalities Act etc.

    Like a lot of HR policy it is about being a step or two ahead of a miscreant, and anticipating their excuse.
    Buy that's just as bad, since it's not done to instruct employees in an effective way if so, as that is not the primary purpose, hence why the other standard approach besides a lecture is something bland and without much practical value.

    I'd say it's a mixture, since those delivering it are usually passionate about a message, whilst the organisation is just ticking a box to cover their arse, as you point out, and would probably be content with anything.
    I think @Foxy is essentially right

    HR work for the company and its interests, not yours.
    Ummm

    Everyone I employ should be working for the company and its interests.
    Well, they're working for themselves and their families really, and playing along with that.

    Sorry.
    Agreed. Principal Agent problem innit.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.

    One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.

    Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?

    And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?

    Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
    I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of
    maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes

    The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
    Wise words
    I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
    I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.

    I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.

    One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
    DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
    I read a management book which noted such things have been around for decades in one form or another yet things often seem unchanged or worse.

    Their suggestion, and in fairness I don't know if it was backed up with evidence, was it works much better when genuinely voluntary, as people are usually happy to engage then, but make it mandatory and they switch off as it's a box tick or a lecture. And that can be counterproductive and cause resentment.

    I did a session recently which was quite good as things go, felt like a genuine conversation and didnt do a common thing of dismissing any concerns, but they messed up by including an external video which was literally an anti-capitalist screen which barely even related to DEI.
    Just so: there's definitely something in listening to other people with different experiences.

    Why does it need to be ruined by a lecturing that you should feel a sense of shame for who you are too?
    Since England has lost religion we no longer get God botherers just plain botherers.
    56% of the population of England and Wales are still Christian, Muslim, Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist or Jewish on the last census
    Much of this is only very nominal. Especially when you remember that only one person in the family usually fills out the census form.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281

    It was a relief to see that Reform managed to put up a candidate at the last minute in my constituency of Tewkesbury, Gloucestershire. It should help the LD to win and bring in my bet at 7/1 [currently 9/2 and still value].

    One has the impression he scribbled his statement hurriedly before the deadline. I think he's about 15.

    Here it is:


    'We, unfortunately, lost our seat in Barnwood and only lost by 3 votes In podsmead, it was a great campaign and it just proves us residents wont be taken for granted we won't take anymore!

    Next year in 2021 the conservatives will come back harder and we will win! I understand how the election was so close between us and the liberals possibily over brexit! I am a Brexiteer and we must respect democracy deliver Brexit and the conservatives will be on the up!

    I would like to say thank you to the 200 people that voted for me it was an honour at such a young age to receive so much support I will continue to help podsmead residents and never let them down I am passionate hardworking reliable and won't let residents down.

    2021 here the conservatives come!

    Podsmead will soon understand how much it means to have a councillor who lives in the area.

    Once again thank you.

    Byron'

    Here in Stratford upon Avon we have the prospect of a split LD vote. The former mayor of Stratford (LD) is standing as an independent.
    Very interesting, Alan. It looks an open contest.

    At a glance, I'd suggest a Con hold would be the value at 4/5.

    Thoughts?
    I'd expect a con hold. If they don't there wont be much of a conservative party left nationally. I'd expect the LD splitter only to pick up a few hundred votes as if you want the Cons out the LDs are the ones to go for. They might have an outside chance as they hammered the blues at the council elections. We also have a local party Ive never come across

    https://nonpol.com/

    are they standing anywhere else ?

    All academic as far as I'm concerned as I'll be in France for my son's wedding on polling day.
    Postal vote, surely, Alan?

    Enjoy the wedding. Sounds fab.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    edited June 8
    Foxy said:

    Morning all.
    The LOL result of course is Tories hold the Blue Wall, Farage storms the Red, Labour end up short by a few.
    Looking at Norwich South, Glorious George and the SDP have abandoned me, ive ruled out the English four leaving me The Party of Women or Reform. I dont see myself as a modern day Suffragette so, reluctantly, chalk up one for big stupid Nigel here.

    I don't think redwaller, older CDE voters will like Farage planning the end of the NHS. I suspect Labour's ad will play strongly there.
    Norwich South is utterly under the spell of Labour. Clive Lewis could take a dump in every front room and the electorare here would vote him back in. They have zero imagination. Despite having been shat on by Labour councils forever.

    Edit - sorry i see you meant the red wall not the Turnip Turnpike
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    SteveS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    ToryJim said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.

    One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.

    Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?

    And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?

    Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
    I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of
    maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes

    The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
    Wise words
    I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
    I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.

    I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.

    One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
    DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
    What it does mean is that HR departments can justify their existence and then take other employees time away from productive activities to try to indoctrinate them into the hive mind.
    No, DEI training is mostly defensive. So if one of my Trusts staff acts or speaks in a non-inclusive way to other staff or patients they can be appropriately disciplined. They cannot defend themselves by claiming to be unaware of the Equalities Act etc.

    Like a lot of HR policy it is about being a step or two ahead of a miscreant, and anticipating their excuse.
    Buy that's just as bad, since it's not done to instruct employees in an effective way if so, as that is not the primary purpose, hence why the other standard approach besides a lecture is something bland and without much practical value.

    I'd say it's a mixture, since those delivering it are usually passionate about a message, whilst the organisation is just ticking a box to cover their arse, as you point out, and would probably be content with anything.
    I think @Foxy is essentially right

    HR work for the company and its interests, not yours.
    Ummm

    Everyone I employ should be working for the company and its interests.
    Well, they're working for themselves and their families really, and playing along with that.

    Sorry.
    Agreed. Principal Agent problem innit.
    It never ceases to amaze me how many PBers think HR departments are about woke. In fact how many PBers see woke in almost everything. But that's wokehunters for you.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    Re Manifesto launches I don't think they matter much.

    They are viewed by most as a series of promises by the serial promise breakers.

    SKS holding the world record for broken pledges missions etc but that's factored in and he still wins
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    It was a relief to see that Reform managed to put up a candidate at the last minute in my constituency of Tewkesbury, Gloucestershire. It should help the LD to win and bring in my bet at 7/1 [currently 9/2 and still value].

    One has the impression he scribbled his statement hurriedly before the deadline. I think he's about 15.

    Here it is:


    'We, unfortunately, lost our seat in Barnwood and only lost by 3 votes In podsmead, it was a great campaign and it just proves us residents wont be taken for granted we won't take anymore!

    Next year in 2021 the conservatives will come back harder and we will win! I understand how the election was so close between us and the liberals possibily over brexit! I am a Brexiteer and we must respect democracy deliver Brexit and the conservatives will be on the up!

    I would like to say thank you to the 200 people that voted for me it was an honour at such a young age to receive so much support I will continue to help podsmead residents and never let them down I am passionate hardworking reliable and won't let residents down.

    2021 here the conservatives come!

    Podsmead will soon understand how much it means to have a councillor who lives in the area.

    Once again thank you.

    Byron'

    Here in Stratford upon Avon we have the prospect of a split LD vote. The former mayor of Stratford (LD) is standing as an independent.
    Very interesting, Alan. It looks an open contest.

    At a glance, I'd suggest a Con hold would be the value at 4/5.

    Thoughts?
    I'd expect a con hold. If they don't there wont be much of a conservative party left nationally. I'd expect the LD splitter only to pick up a few hundred votes as if you want the Cons out the LDs are the ones to go for. They might have an outside chance as they hammered the blues at the council elections. We also have a local party Ive never come across

    https://nonpol.com/

    are they standing anywhere else ?

    All academic as far as I'm concerned as I'll be in France for my son's wedding on polling day.
    Postal vote, surely, Alan?

    Enjoy the wedding. Sounds fab.
    No I'm thinking of the environment - why get sent some paper just to spoil it :smile:
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281
    edited June 8
    Scott_xP said:

    It was a relief to see that Reform managed to put up a candidate at the last minute in my constituency of Tewkesbury, Gloucestershire. It should help the LD to win and bring in my bet at 7/1 [currently 9/2 and still value].

    One has the impression he scribbled his statement hurriedly before the deadline. I think he's about 15.

    Here it is:


    'We, unfortunately, lost our seat in Barnwood and only lost by 3 votes In podsmead, it was a great campaign and it just proves us residents wont be taken for granted we won't take anymore!

    Next year in 2021 the conservatives will come back harder and we will win! I understand how the election was so close between us and the liberals possibily over brexit! I am a Brexiteer and we must respect democracy deliver Brexit and the conservatives will be on the up!

    I would like to say thank you to the 200 people that voted for me it was an honour at such a young age to receive so much support I will continue to help podsmead residents and never let them down I am passionate hardworking reliable and won't let residents down.

    2021 here the conservatives come!

    Podsmead will soon understand how much it means to have a councillor who lives in the area.

    Once again thank you.

    Byron'

    Here in Stratford upon Avon we have the prospect of a split LD vote. The former mayor of Stratford (LD) is standing as an independent.
    Very interesting, Alan. It looks an open contest.

    At a glance, I'd suggest a Con hold would be the value at 4/5.

    Thoughts?
    The Lib Dems are canvassing for the first time in living memory. They must be hopeful
    That's not your parish,surely, Scott?

    Didn't realise the Scottish diaspora had got as far south as Warwickshire.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,185

    On the Telegraph point below, parts of it have really already become the Daily Nigel, from what I can see.

    "Pugnacious Farage leaves rivals reeling, in BBC debate".

    Very much shades of the Völkischer Beobachter
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Mr. Pete, no shit.

    Why not a 70% pay hike? Or 150%? Don't you love the NHS enough?! Did you applaud for a full minute or stop after 40 seconds like someone who doesn't truly adore the pinnacle of human civilisation?

    Although in anything but a mixed up world a Consultant Heart Surgeon would earn way more than a Hedge Fund Manager.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Does anyone have the full list of GE opinion polls from 2019 to the present?

    The wiki page only seems to begin 1/1/23 with nothing entered for 2020, 2021, or 2022.

    Thanks muchly xx
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Jim, the public applauding of the NHS at a designated time was cultish and creepy.

    Indeed Mr Dancer, I even had an anonymous note from my neighbours expressing their displeasure that I didn’t behave like a programmed automaton.
    Crayon rainbows in the window was a known sign of compliant adoration. It was the passover blooded lintel for the modern age
    As I recall, some newspaper was on the point of demanding its extension to 'clap for Boris' (which was unfortunately expressed).
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281

    It was a relief to see that Reform managed to put up a candidate at the last minute in my constituency of Tewkesbury, Gloucestershire. It should help the LD to win and bring in my bet at 7/1 [currently 9/2 and still value].

    One has the impression he scribbled his statement hurriedly before the deadline. I think he's about 15.

    Here it is:


    'We, unfortunately, lost our seat in Barnwood and only lost by 3 votes In podsmead, it was a great campaign and it just proves us residents wont be taken for granted we won't take anymore!

    Next year in 2021 the conservatives will come back harder and we will win! I understand how the election was so close between us and the liberals possibily over brexit! I am a Brexiteer and we must respect democracy deliver Brexit and the conservatives will be on the up!

    I would like to say thank you to the 200 people that voted for me it was an honour at such a young age to receive so much support I will continue to help podsmead residents and never let them down I am passionate hardworking reliable and won't let residents down.

    2021 here the conservatives come!

    Podsmead will soon understand how much it means to have a councillor who lives in the area.

    Once again thank you.

    Byron'

    Here in Stratford upon Avon we have the prospect of a split LD vote. The former mayor of Stratford (LD) is standing as an independent.
    Very interesting, Alan. It looks an open contest.

    At a glance, I'd suggest a Con hold would be the value at 4/5.

    Thoughts?
    I'd expect a con hold. If they don't there wont be much of a conservative party left nationally. I'd expect the LD splitter only to pick up a few hundred votes as if you want the Cons out the LDs are the ones to go for. They might have an outside chance as they hammered the blues at the council elections. We also have a local party Ive never come across

    https://nonpol.com/

    are they standing anywhere else ?

    All academic as far as I'm concerned as I'll be in France for my son's wedding on polling day.
    Postal vote, surely, Alan?

    Enjoy the wedding. Sounds fab.
    No I'm thinking of the environment - why get sent some paper just to spoil it :smile:
    Lol! :)
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,792

    Taz said:

    Labour attack ad on Reform/Farage

    Are they concerned about leaking voters to Reform ?

    https://x.com/uklabour/status/1799161866624643418?s=61

    Yep - first they ignore you, then laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

    We're at the fight you stage. They wouldn't be bothering unless they had concerning polling.
    Yeah, that old cliche. Beloved of Stuart Campbell of the Bath region of Scottish Separatists.

    Still, as (Roger Moore) James Bond accurately opined

    "We all get our jollies one way or another."
    But, Reform could dip their vote to 39.5% and steal a few seats from them, as well as open up a new medium-term strategic threat.

    SKS absolutely doesn't want that.
    I was warning about Farage and the red wall several years ago. They are absolutely a threat to Labour. But Labour need a threat to make them actually do something in the red wall. You lot took seat after seat because people realised Labour had done little but blame the Tories for the decline and squalour.

    It will be interesting to see what Reform can do to somewhere thats a prime target - Hartlepools perhaps. AWOL Tory MP is forecasted to get absolutely demolished by Labour. Will enough 2019 Tory voters swing Reform to spike Labour's chances and keep her in? Its possible, but the maths suggests that you just end up with Labour winning a smaller majority and the right vote split across the two parties.

    In 2019 this effect stopped the Tories from taking all kinds of unlikely seats including Easington and Sunderland Central. In 2024? I suspect its the Tories losing out again - RefUK more of a threat to you than to the red team.

    Sorry.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    Re Manifesto launches I don't think they matter much.

    They are viewed by most as a series of promises by the serial promise breakers.

    SKS holding the world record for broken pledges missions etc but that's factored in and he still wins

    They're benchmarks on which to judge the scale of failure.
  • highwayparadise306highwayparadise306 Posts: 1,273
    Good Morning all. I have changed my mind about how the Tories will do in the election based on this weeks events and the debate last night On the Beeb. One seat in parliament. They will not come third. Last as reform will get two seats. Please advise where I can place this bet as no company will accept it at the moment.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894

    That's not your parish,surely, Scott?

    Didn't realise the Scottish diaspora had got as far south as Warwickshire.

    sadly, yes
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    Heathener said:

    Does anyone have the full list of GE opinion polls from 2019 to the present?

    The wiki page only seems to begin 1/1/23 with nothing entered for 2020, 2021, or 2022.

    Thanks muchly xx

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.

    One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.

    Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?

    And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?

    Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
    I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of
    maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes

    The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
    Wise words
    I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
    I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.

    I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.

    One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
    DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
    I read a management book which noted such things have been around for decades in one form or another yet things often seem unchanged or worse.

    Their suggestion, and in fairness I don't know if it was backed up with evidence, was it works much better when genuinely voluntary, as people are usually happy to engage then, but make it mandatory and they switch off as it's a box tick or a lecture. And that can be counterproductive and cause resentment.

    I did a session recently which was quite good as things go, felt like a genuine conversation and didnt do a common thing of dismissing any concerns, but they messed up by including an external video which was literally an anti-capitalist screen which barely even related to DEI.
    Just so: there's definitely something in listening to other people with different experiences.

    Why does it need to be ruined by a lecturing that you should feel a sense of shame for who you are too?
    Since England has lost religion we no longer get God botherers just plain botherers.
    56% of the population of England and Wales are still Christian, Muslim, Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist or Jewish on the last census
    Much of this is only very nominal. Especially when you remember that only one person in the family usually fills out the census form.
    Most of the Christian responses will be cultural. Nominal C of E, never go near a church except for weddings and funerals. We inhabit one of the most irreligious polities on the face of the Earth.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Heathener said:

    Does anyone have the full list of GE opinion polls from 2019 to the present?

    The wiki page only seems to begin 1/1/23 with nothing entered for 2020, 2021, or 2022.

    Thanks muchly xx

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
    It's there, you just have to click on by the dates for each year.

  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 168

    SteveS said:

    Also, what are people’s thoughts on how liquid Sporting Index is? I’ve bought a conservative seats but it’s moving around a lot..

    I don't like Sporting Index. They are inflexible, inaccessible and high-risk whilst they pursue you relentlessly the second you incur a loss.

    Appreciate it might work for others but I've never made money from them, and I now steer clear.
    Thanks. I did very well buying conservative seats in 2019. I think I got on when it was a majority of around 30.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,792

    Good Morning all. I have changed my mind about how the Tories will do in the election based on this weeks events and the debate last night On the Beeb. One seat in parliament. They will not come third. Last as reform will get two seats. Please advise where I can place this bet as no company will accept it at the moment.

    Would you care to nominate which seat would be the last person standing?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,984

    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    It looks like the Tories are going to put the abolition of NI in their manifesto as an ambition when the country can afford it .

    The problem here is how on earth the country could ever afford to lose that much revenue . And it’s risky because of the shadow of Truss . Given NI does go towards pensions if pensioners think it could effect that then it’s a problem for the Tories .

    Well indeed. The obvious question to Tory politicians is what further tax rises to make up the shortfall have they got planned above the increased tax bill of £3 018 already planned for the next parliament.

    Figure from the Spectator:

    https://x.com/FraserNelson/status/1799162430360019134?t=uJ9VFyEvdpxkm1kBGrjE_g&s=19
    well since Reeves is clinging limpet like to Hunts plans thats also a Labour £3018 tax rise.

    And then on top there will be Labour's own tax rises. Reeves reported to be looking at 12 additional rises.
    That's why the £2,000 Labour tax-rise resonates - we all know it's going to be true.

    The only inaccuracy is that it's an underestimate.
    You do know that it resonates because everyone is looking at the record taxes they are paying for broken public services, and listening to you Tories claim to have cut taxes and think "lying sods".

    The more you repeat it, the more people are clear that you are absurd liars. Look at the polls this week. It is playing *the opposite* of what you just said.
    I'll keep saying it until polling day.

    Because it's not about us: it's about what Labour will do in office, since they will win.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    ToryJim said:

    kle4 said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.

    One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.

    Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?

    And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?

    Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
    I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of
    maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes

    The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
    Wise words
    I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
    I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.

    I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.

    One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
    DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
    I read a management book which noted such things have been around for decades in one form or another yet things often seem unchanged or worse.

    Their suggestion, and in fairness I don't know if it was backed up with evidence, was it works much better when genuinely voluntary, as people are usually happy to engage then, but make it mandatory and they switch off as it's a box tick or a lecture. And that can be counterproductive and cause resentment.

    I did a session recently which was quite good as things go, felt like a genuine conversation and didnt do a common thing of dismissing any concerns, but they messed up by including an external video which was literally an anti-capitalist screen which barely even related to DEI.
    Just so: there's definitely something in listening to other people with different experiences.

    Why does it need to be ruined by a lecturing that you should feel a sense of shame for who you are too?
    Since England has lost religion we no longer get God botherers just plain botherers.
    We have the NHS, founded by the apostle Clement Attlee.
    At least we no longer have the evening act of worship from the Covid era.
    Always surprises me that the people didn't clap the most important people in society like the bankers, politicians, private health profiteers and equity fund managers.

    Strange that
    They had financial reward enough.

    Cheaper to applaud Doctors and Nurses with pots and pans on a Thursday evening than increase their pay by 30%.
    My GP friend ( now retired ) refused to play pots and pans as he thinks most doctors are work shirking chancers.
    I'd rather one of those work shirking chancers completed my triple by pass than an industrious Alanbrooke. A plumber once told me " you are paying me for what I know, not what I do". The same applies to Doctors with bells on. Although I saw Dr Patrick nearly killed a patient on the BBC documentary Casualty last week too, so food for thought!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. Pete, only if you think money is, or should be, moral. Wages do not equate to moral value, but economic value. A poison merchant can make more than a nurse.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037

    Taz said:

    Labour attack ad on Reform/Farage

    Are they concerned about leaking voters to Reform ?

    https://x.com/uklabour/status/1799161866624643418?s=61

    Yep - first they ignore you, then laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

    We're at the fight you stage. They wouldn't be bothering unless they had concerning polling.
    Yeah, that old cliche. Beloved of Stuart Campbell of the Bath region of Scottish Separatists.

    Still, as (Roger Moore) James Bond accurately opined

    "We all get our jollies one way or another."
    But, Reform could dip their vote to 39.5% and steal a few seats from them, as well as open up a new medium-term strategic threat.

    SKS absolutely doesn't want that.
    If Labour are as overstated in polling as i suspect then 37 to 39 is quite a likely outcome
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    Heathener said:

    boulay said:

    Farooq said:

    boulay said:

    Heathener said:

    Penny Mordaunt is hectoring and constantly interrupting. Really hope she loses her seat. Ghastly woman.

    Less of the misogyny please, referring to her sex as a derogatory point is beneath you. You could have said “ghastly person” but ghastly woman is so loaded with some retro sexist memories of “to the manor born” and all that.
    I like how all the OnlyFans references were ok but "ghastly woman" was somehow noteworthy
    I was being ever so serious. Heathener is suitably strong, apparently accomplished and confident to give it out and take it back - it would probs be more sexist to think anyone had to rein it in because she’s a she.
    Yeah I don’t have a problem with you calling it out. But what is to the manor born?
    Really? Penelope Kieth, Richard Bowles? Huge in the late 1970s.
    Peter Bowles was in TTMB with Penelope
    Richard Briars was in the Good Life with Penelope
    I know! Schoolboy error from me. Trying to wind up Heathener who is somehow about 70 and 17 at the same time. It’s not like To The Manor Born is an obscure TV series. It’s one from the classics of the age, and as has been said, both stands up well AND is an interesting social/historical commentary.
    Funnily enough most people who know me in real life, as opposed to on here, mark me as typical GenZ in outlook and views. Which I take as a compliment.
    Because you are GenZ.
    Ok boomer
    I'm a Millennial
    In the eighties we had young fogeys.
    I guess now it's young Boomers.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894
    After Peter Mandelson suggested it last week, Matthew Parris has now written a column questioning whether it might be better for the Tories if Richi were not the leader come polling day. To Leon's delight it contains this passage which really could be a metaphor for his entire leadership style

    Or, these days, the PM could have asked ChatGPT. I did — forgetting, incidentally, to tell the app that the pressing TV interview was only a recording. This was the virtual robot’s reply: “As the prime minister, attending a memorial event for the D-Day landings is a significant duty, reflecting respect and honor [sic] for the sacrifices made during World War II. This event is not only important to veterans and their families but also to the international community, particularly given the presence of other world leaders. Missing it for a TV interview could be seen as prioritising personal political gains over national and historical responsibilities, which might not be well-received by the public and other nations. It would be advisable to attend the D-Day memorial and find another time for the interview.”

    And we worry that artificial intelligence may lack the human touch! A robot has beaten our prime minister in the empathy stakes.


    https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/is-it-too-late-for-sunak-to-fall-on-his-sword-rr63k0p8h
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,984
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Jim, the public applauding of the NHS at a designated time was cultish and creepy.

    Indeed Mr Dancer, I even had an anonymous note from my neighbours expressing their displeasure that I didn’t behave like a programmed automaton.
    How many words was your response?
    Zero.
    Can I ask you a question which is bugging me?

    Are you really a Tory as per your name?
    Yes and no. By inclination I lean towards the centre right but I’m no longer a party member and will probably vote elsewhere this time.

    Like most people if they’d admit it some of my views skew righter than others, some skew left. Even when I was a Tory member I was never slavishly adherent to every single thing they came up with.
    Then maybe consider changing your name?

    Not particularly good sport to call yourself a Tory if you're not one.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,185
    King Harthacnut died #OnThisDay 1042, having ruled England for just two years. Brought in to replace his unpopular predecessor, he proved to be even worse. "He never did anything worthy of a king while he reigned" said the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle.

    https://x.com/longshanks1307/status/1799344199034388914?s=46

    I do love a bit of historian shade..
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    ToryJim said:

    kle4 said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.

    One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.

    Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?

    And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?

    Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
    I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of
    maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes

    The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
    Wise words
    I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
    I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.

    I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.

    One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
    DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
    I read a management book which noted such things have been around for decades in one form or another yet things often seem unchanged or worse.

    Their suggestion, and in fairness I don't know if it was backed up with evidence, was it works much better when genuinely voluntary, as people are usually happy to engage then, but make it mandatory and they switch off as it's a box tick or a lecture. And that can be counterproductive and cause resentment.

    I did a session recently which was quite good as things go, felt like a genuine conversation and didnt do a common thing of dismissing any concerns, but they messed up by including an external video which was literally an anti-capitalist screen which barely even related to DEI.
    Just so: there's definitely something in listening to other people with different experiences.

    Why does it need to be ruined by a lecturing that you should feel a sense of shame for who you are too?
    Since England has lost religion we no longer get God botherers just plain botherers.
    We have the NHS, founded by the apostle Clement Attlee.
    At least we no longer have the evening act of worship from the Covid era.
    Always surprises me that the people didn't clap the most important people in society like the bankers, politicians, private health profiteers and equity fund managers.

    Strange that
    They had financial reward enough.

    Cheaper to applaud Doctors and Nurses with pots and pans on a Thursday evening than increase their pay by 30%.
    My GP friend ( now retired ) refused to play pots and pans as he thinks most doctors are work shirking chancers.
    I'd rather one of those work shirking chancers completed my triple by pass than an industrious Alanbrooke. A plumber once told me " you are paying me for what I know, not what I do". The same applies to Doctors with bells on. Although I saw Dr Patrick nearly killed a patient on the BBC documentary Casualty last week too, so food for thought!
    I'm simply reporting a doctor's view not necessarily my own. I occasionally get to meet his doctor mates and it's always interesting to hear their in-house chat.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Heathener said:

    Does anyone have the full list of GE opinion polls from 2019 to the present?

    The wiki page only seems to begin 1/1/23 with nothing entered for 2020, 2021, or 2022.

    Thanks muchly xx

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
    Thanks: much appreciated x
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.

    One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.

    Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?

    And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?

    Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
    I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of
    maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes

    The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
    Wise words
    I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
    I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.

    I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.

    One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
    DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
    Yeah, yeah, yeah...

    Speaking as somebody who suffered (insidious, usually unintentional) discrimination in the past, I'm all for it DEI.
    Casino Royale is, I’m afraid, a rather nasty piece of work.

    Look at his constant bullying of me, including his regular ‘EVERYONE hates you’.

    No wonder he doesn’t like DEI.

    He says I’m 'full of shit' but I’ve never encountered a more unpleasant individual online, as others have also experienced on here.

    If I were a pb tory I’d be msging him to dial it down. He’s confirming what a lot of us know, that The Nasty Party are in full control of the Conservatives. Pity them because they won’t ever win power in this country with his like.
    Heathener, if you were a rabid right-winger the PB faithful would be lapping up your every word, cf @Leon .

    Your problem is not your colourful backstory but the colour of your rosette. You are also quite hubristic which makes them angry. Only they are allowed to say "suck it up Remainer losers", "Captain Hindsight can never win an election" and "Boris will be a four term Churchillian PM, he got all the big calls right".
    How come I don't have a problem (usually) with you, Ben, Gallowgate, OLB, OKC or Jonathan then? And even Horse has ironed himself out recently?

    There a handful of Left-wing posters I do, but not the sensible ones.
    Come off it Casino, if you could be arsed you'd hate the ground I walked on. Your previous response to a serious post I made about VAT on schools was peppered with "f" bombs
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Jim, the public applauding of the NHS at a designated time was cultish and creepy.

    Indeed Mr Dancer, I even had an anonymous note from my neighbours expressing their displeasure that I didn’t behave like a programmed automaton.
    How many words was your response?
    Zero.
    Can I ask you a question which is bugging me?

    Are you really a Tory as per your name?
    Yes and no. By inclination I lean towards the centre right but I’m no longer a party member and will probably vote elsewhere this time.

    Like most people if they’d admit it some of my views skew righter than others, some skew left. Even when I was a Tory member I was never slavishly adherent to every single thing they came up with.
    Then maybe consider changing your name?

    Not particularly good sport to call yourself a Tory if you're not one.
    Do you wear a black tuxedo, CR, and drink your vodka martinis shaken, not stirred?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,792
    I remember my brief stint as a working journalist. Top and tailing press releases so that they actually resemble something I had written. Not sure my new friend at The Northern Scot has even done that much...

    https://www.northern-scot.co.uk/news/liberal-democrats-announce-general-election-candidate-for-ab-352651/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,633

    Taz said:

    Labour attack ad on Reform/Farage

    Are they concerned about leaking voters to Reform ?

    https://x.com/uklabour/status/1799161866624643418?s=61

    Yep - first they ignore you, then laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

    We're at the fight you stage. They wouldn't be bothering unless they had concerning polling.
    Yeah, that old cliche. Beloved of Stuart Campbell of the Bath region of Scottish Separatists.

    Still, as (Roger Moore) James Bond accurately opined

    "We all get our jollies one way or another."
    But, Reform could dip their vote to 39.5% and steal a few seats from them, as well as open up a new medium-term strategic threat.

    SKS absolutely doesn't want that.
    If Labour are as overstated in polling as i suspect then 37 to 39 is quite a likely outcome
    I really don't expect LAB to get more than 38 but that will still be a huge win for them
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Jim, the public applauding of the NHS at a designated time was cultish and creepy.

    Indeed Mr Dancer, I even had an anonymous note from my neighbours expressing their displeasure that I didn’t behave like a programmed automaton.
    How many words was your response?
    Zero.
    Can I ask you a question which is bugging me?

    Are you really a Tory as per your name?
    Yes and no. By inclination I lean towards the centre right but I’m no longer a party member and will probably vote elsewhere this time.

    Like most people if they’d admit it some of my views skew righter than others, some skew left. Even when I was a Tory member I was never slavishly adherent to every single thing they came up with.
    Then maybe consider changing your name?

    Not particularly good sport to call yourself a Tory if you're not one.
    Are you a casino and/or a James Bond novel?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,701

    I remember my brief stint as a working journalist. Top and tailing press releases so that they actually resemble something I had written. Not sure my new friend at The Northern Scot has even done that much...

    https://www.northern-scot.co.uk/news/liberal-democrats-announce-general-election-candidate-for-ab-352651/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

    That's how to get coverage 101, isn't it?

    "Do 90% of the writer's work for them."
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281
    ToryJim said:

    King Harthacnut died #OnThisDay 1042, having ruled England for just two years. Brought in to replace his unpopular predecessor, he proved to be even worse. "He never did anything worthy of a king while he reigned" said the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle.

    https://x.com/longshanks1307/status/1799344199034388914?s=46

    I do love a bit of historian shade..

    Brilliant, and what a name! I wish I'd known of that when my son was born.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,707

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Jim, the public applauding of the NHS at a designated time was cultish and creepy.

    Indeed Mr Dancer, I even had an anonymous note from my neighbours expressing their displeasure that I didn’t behave like a programmed automaton.
    How many words was your response?
    Zero.
    Can I ask you a question which is bugging me?

    Are you really a Tory as per your name?
    Yes and no. By inclination I lean towards the centre right but I’m no longer a party member and will probably vote elsewhere this time.

    Like most people if they’d admit it some of my views skew righter than others, some skew left. Even when I was a Tory member I was never slavishly adherent to every single thing they came up with.
    Then maybe consider changing your name?

    Not particularly good sport to call yourself a Tory if you're not one.
    He's entitled to feel the Tory party has left him rather than the other way round. I still call myself a liberal.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696

    Good Morning all. I have changed my mind about how the Tories will do in the election based on this weeks events and the debate last night On the Beeb. One seat in parliament. They will not come third. Last as reform will get two seats. Please advise where I can place this bet as no company will accept it at the moment.

    You can get 4/1 on Conservatives getting 0-49 seats: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/conservatives-seats
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.

    One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.

    Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?

    And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?

    Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
    I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of
    maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes

    The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
    Wise words
    I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
    I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.

    I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.

    One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
    DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
    I read a management book which noted such things have been around for decades in one form or another yet things often seem unchanged or worse.

    Their suggestion, and in fairness I don't know if it was backed up with evidence, was it works much better when genuinely voluntary, as people are usually happy to engage then, but make it mandatory and they switch off as it's a box tick or a lecture. And that can be counterproductive and cause resentment.

    I did a session recently which was quite good as things go, felt like a genuine conversation and didnt do a common thing of dismissing any concerns, but they messed up by including an external video which was literally an anti-capitalist screen which barely even related to DEI.
    Just so: there's definitely something in listening to other people with different experiences.

    Why does it need to be ruined by a lecturing that you should feel a sense of shame for who you are too?
    Since England has lost religion we no longer get God botherers just plain botherers.
    56% of the population of England and Wales are still Christian, Muslim, Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist or Jewish on the last census
    That's an awful lot of very confused people.
    Can't they just pick one ?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037

    Taz said:

    Labour attack ad on Reform/Farage

    Are they concerned about leaking voters to Reform ?

    https://x.com/uklabour/status/1799161866624643418?s=61

    Yep - first they ignore you, then laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

    We're at the fight you stage. They wouldn't be bothering unless they had concerning polling.
    Yeah, that old cliche. Beloved of Stuart Campbell of the Bath region of Scottish Separatists.

    Still, as (Roger Moore) James Bond accurately opined

    "We all get our jollies one way or another."
    But, Reform could dip their vote to 39.5% and steal a few seats from them, as well as open up a new medium-term strategic threat.

    SKS absolutely doesn't want that.
    If Labour are as overstated in polling as i suspect then 37 to 39 is quite a likely outcome
    I really don't expect LAB to get more than 38 but that will still be a huge win for them
    It will but it also limits their majority to a more 1997 type outcome at best
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    edited June 8
    Taz said:

    Missed the debate last night. We were supposed to go out, got caught in a downpour on the way to the station. Came home. Dried off. Drank a bottle of my 13% cider and fell asleep. However social media tells me the winner was the person from the party the poster most supports. Any impartial views on the debate ? I saw a poll by more in common had Farage as the winner.

    It depends what you mean by the winner.

    If you mean who was the best orator, then I agree it was Farage who has a gift for plain speaking and theatricals.

    If you mean who made a difference to the vote, then I think the Green, SNP and Plaid all might have attracted some wavering voters to their cause - so they were the winners. I don't think Farage, Raynor or Mordaunt made any significant difference to their vote. They appealed to their supporters and repelled their opponents. Daisy Cooper seemed nice and reasonable but I wouldn't call her the winner.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,792

    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    It looks like the Tories are going to put the abolition of NI in their manifesto as an ambition when the country can afford it .

    The problem here is how on earth the country could ever afford to lose that much revenue . And it’s risky because of the shadow of Truss . Given NI does go towards pensions if pensioners think it could effect that then it’s a problem for the Tories .

    Well indeed. The obvious question to Tory politicians is what further tax rises to make up the shortfall have they got planned above the increased tax bill of £3 018 already planned for the next parliament.

    Figure from the Spectator:

    https://x.com/FraserNelson/status/1799162430360019134?t=uJ9VFyEvdpxkm1kBGrjE_g&s=19
    well since Reeves is clinging limpet like to Hunts plans thats also a Labour £3018 tax rise.

    And then on top there will be Labour's own tax rises. Reeves reported to be looking at 12 additional rises.
    That's why the £2,000 Labour tax-rise resonates - we all know it's going to be true.

    The only inaccuracy is that it's an underestimate.
    You do know that it resonates because everyone is looking at the record taxes they are paying for broken public services, and listening to you Tories claim to have cut taxes and think "lying sods".

    The more you repeat it, the more people are clear that you are absurd liars. Look at the polls this week. It is playing *the opposite* of what you just said.
    I'll keep saying it until polling day.

    Because it's not about us: it's about what Labour will do in office, since they will win.
    Just so we're clear, it isn't about the Tories now as you won't win? So when you said £2,000 tax rises under Labour, and the Spectator use the exact same methodology to show you are committed to £3,000 tax rises, we can ignore that as Labour will win and you won't?

    I agree that Labour will win BTW. And that this is about what opposition there is to them after the election. How do you feel about the idea of an MP who backstabbed his colleague in his hospital bed to take the nomination himself, planning to be a very part time MP and live hours away from the constituency? Having said that he couldn't be an MP as he needed to focus on being an MSP?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509

    On the Telegraph point below, parts of it have really already become the Daily Nigel, from what I can see.

    "Pugnacious Farage leaves rivals reeling, in BBC debate".

    Was it his bad breath ?

  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,765
    I want more polls.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,792
    MattW said:

    I remember my brief stint as a working journalist. Top and tailing press releases so that they actually resemble something I had written. Not sure my new friend at The Northern Scot has even done that much...

    https://www.northern-scot.co.uk/news/liberal-democrats-announce-general-election-candidate-for-ab-352651/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

    That's how to get coverage 101, isn't it?

    "Do 90% of the writer's work for them."
    99% darling, 99%...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Done right, diversity and inclusion training is about getting people to see things from others' point of view, something people are not good at on the whole.

    An example from @MattW on this board is barriers on footpaths. Get colleagues to think who will be using this path? If you were in a wheelchair what would you want? You get a much better outcome for those users than with any number of regulations and policies.

    My employer is serious about DEI, does it well, and I think it shows up in somewhat better outcomes for customers and a better work environment.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    ...

    Mr. Pete, only if you think money is, or should be, moral. Wages do not equate to moral value, but economic value. A poison merchant can make more than a nurse.

    Morris, do you mind me asking? Were you one of the original authors of the King James Bible?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    ToryJim said:

    King Harthacnut died #OnThisDay 1042, having ruled England for just two years. Brought in to replace his unpopular predecessor, he proved to be even worse. "He never did anything worthy of a king while he reigned" said the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle.

    https://x.com/longshanks1307/status/1799344199034388914?s=46

    I do love a bit of historian shade..

    Not even a complete Cnut, going by his name.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,701
    edited June 8

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Jim, the public applauding of the NHS at a designated time was cultish and creepy.

    Indeed Mr Dancer, I even had an anonymous note from my neighbours expressing their displeasure that I didn’t behave like a programmed automaton.
    How many words was your response?
    Zero.
    Can I ask you a question which is bugging me?

    Are you really a Tory as per your name?
    Yes and no. By inclination I lean towards the centre right but I’m no longer a party member and will probably vote elsewhere this time.

    Like most people if they’d admit it some of my views skew righter than others, some skew left. Even when I was a Tory member I was never slavishly adherent to every single thing they came up with.
    Then maybe consider changing your name?

    Not particularly good sport to call yourself a Tory if you're not one.
    Are you a casino and/or a James Bond novel?
    He's too much for one James Bond.

    He's a fan of Herb Alpert and the Tijuana Brass.

    And Bert Bacharach.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0px9QxojVjU

    (By the way - good morning everyone. I am told by @TSE that my header is being exhibited some time this weekend.

    There's a walk-on part for a Deputy Council Leader performing a sound charade down the phone to the 999 Operator of a fictional crime. Ands no puns.)

  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,633

    I want more polls.

    There will be lots more later today. It's a Saturday!
  • highwayparadise306highwayparadise306 Posts: 1,273
    Farage helped us exit from the Eu. Bless him. Future opportunities for Nige as follows. Working in the Usa with various politicians or he can work with the far right in Europe. Plenty of jobs for him over there now with the resurgence of those individuals in multiple of European countries.He can unite with them and fight the Eu again. This is his testing ground now, the Uk election.These options are better than having a one man fight with Labour in the House. Or finally he can join with the Erg rednecks from the Tory party and form the Haters Tea party,that would be perfect. Launch it in the Sponns pub in Rochester.
  • ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Jim, the public applauding of the NHS at a designated time was cultish and creepy.

    Indeed Mr Dancer, I even had an anonymous note from my neighbours expressing their displeasure that I didn’t behave like a programmed automaton.
    How many words was your response?
    Zero.
    Can I ask you a question which is bugging me?

    Are you really a Tory as per your name?
    Yes and no. By inclination I lean towards the centre right but I’m no longer a party member and will probably vote elsewhere this time.

    Like most people if they’d admit it some of my views skew righter than others, some skew left. Even when I was a Tory member I was never slavishly adherent to every single thing they came up with.
    Then maybe consider changing your name?

    Not particularly good sport to call yourself a Tory if you're not one.
    You're a James Bond novel in real life?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037

    I want more polls.

    There will be lots more later today. It's a Saturday!
    Probably only Opinium at 8 if last week is a guide
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,984

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.

    One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.

    Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?

    And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?

    Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
    I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of
    maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes

    The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
    Wise words
    I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
    I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.

    I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.

    One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
    DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
    Yeah, yeah, yeah...

    Speaking as somebody who suffered (insidious, usually unintentional) discrimination in the past, I'm all for it DEI.
    Casino Royale is, I’m afraid, a rather nasty piece of work.

    Look at his constant bullying of me, including his regular ‘EVERYONE hates you’.

    No wonder he doesn’t like DEI.

    He says I’m 'full of shit' but I’ve never encountered a more unpleasant individual online, as others have also experienced on here.

    If I were a pb tory I’d be msging him to dial it down. He’s confirming what a lot of us know, that The Nasty Party are in full control of the Conservatives. Pity them because they won’t ever win power in this country with his like.
    Heathener, if you were a rabid right-winger the PB faithful would be lapping up your every word, cf @Leon .

    Your problem is not your colourful backstory but the colour of your rosette. You are also quite hubristic which makes them angry. Only they are allowed to say "suck it up Remainer losers", "Captain Hindsight can never win an election" and "Boris will be a four term Churchillian PM, he got all the big calls right".
    How come I don't have a problem (usually) with you, Ben, Gallowgate, OLB, OKC or Jonathan then? And even Horse has ironed himself out recently?

    There a handful of Left-wing posters I do, but not the sensible ones.
    Come off it Casino, if you could be arsed you'd hate the ground I walked on. Your previous response to a serious post I made about VAT on schools was peppered with "f" bombs
    It's personal to me, and you said you couldn't care less.

    You got what you deserved.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    I remember my brief stint as a working journalist. Top and tailing press releases so that they actually resemble something I had written. Not sure my new friend at The Northern Scot has even done that much...

    https://www.northern-scot.co.uk/news/liberal-democrats-announce-general-election-candidate-for-ab-352651/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

    Best of luck.

    Whats your policy on North Sea Oil ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,984
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Jim, the public applauding of the NHS at a designated time was cultish and creepy.

    Indeed Mr Dancer, I even had an anonymous note from my neighbours expressing their displeasure that I didn’t behave like a programmed automaton.
    How many words was your response?
    Zero.
    Can I ask you a question which is bugging me?

    Are you really a Tory as per your name?
    Yes and no. By inclination I lean towards the centre right but I’m no longer a party member and will probably vote elsewhere this time.

    Like most people if they’d admit it some of my views skew righter than others, some skew left. Even when I was a Tory member I was never slavishly adherent to every single thing they came up with.
    Then maybe consider changing your name?

    Not particularly good sport to call yourself a Tory if you're not one.
    I would absolutely consider myself a Tory. I just don’t consider that the party that is labelled Tory actually still is. Therefore I feel free to find a home for my vote that best represents my position.

    I hope the Conservatives eventually return to where I can feel at home. Sadly if they fall into the vampiric embrace of Nigel Farage and his nativists then I suspect that will be unlikely.
    How would you describe your values then, and why do you think they're Tory ones?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,633

    I want more polls.

    There will be lots more later today. It's a Saturday!
    Probably only Opinium at 8 if last week is a guide
    Normally during elections there a lots of polls which come out on a Sat afternoon/evening. Maybe this will only happen for the final one or two Saturdays?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Jim, the public applauding of the NHS at a designated time was cultish and creepy.

    Indeed Mr Dancer, I even had an anonymous note from my neighbours expressing their displeasure that I didn’t behave like a programmed automaton.
    How many words was your response?
    Zero.
    Can I ask you a question which is bugging me?

    Are you really a Tory as per your name?
    Yes and no. By inclination I lean towards the centre right but I’m no longer a party member and will probably vote elsewhere this time.

    Like most people if they’d admit it some of my views skew righter than others, some skew left. Even when I was a Tory member I was never slavishly adherent to every single thing they came up with.
    Then maybe consider changing your name?

    Not particularly good sport to call yourself a Tory if you're not one.
    I would absolutely consider myself a Tory. I just don’t consider that the party that is labelled Tory actually still is. Therefore I feel free to find a home for my vote that best represents my position.

    I hope the Conservatives eventually return to where I can feel at home. Sadly if they fall into the vampiric embrace of Nigel Farage and his nativists then I suspect that will be unlikely.
    Good morning

    I am in the same position and despite my anger to Sunak, the thought of Farage being anywhere near the conservative party is something that would condemn me to permanent exile

    Indeed how a poll has him coming out top last night amazes me, as it was clear he was not liked by the audience

    Sunak will be history in 4 weeks, deservedly so after his behaviour over D day, and Mordaunt had an impossible task last nght after he had not only compromised himself but all the conservative party

    I have just seen our candidate list and my postal vote in 10 days time will be going in for the Lib Dem as the only way I can deliver my verdict on Sunak, though it is only 1 vote and Labour will win the seat back from the conservatives easily

    It will be the first time I have voted Lib Dem in a GE
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. Pete, alas, no. Think of the wealth compound interest would've gifted me were that so...

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,984

    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    It looks like the Tories are going to put the abolition of NI in their manifesto as an ambition when the country can afford it .

    The problem here is how on earth the country could ever afford to lose that much revenue . And it’s risky because of the shadow of Truss . Given NI does go towards pensions if pensioners think it could effect that then it’s a problem for the Tories .

    Well indeed. The obvious question to Tory politicians is what further tax rises to make up the shortfall have they got planned above the increased tax bill of £3 018 already planned for the next parliament.

    Figure from the Spectator:

    https://x.com/FraserNelson/status/1799162430360019134?t=uJ9VFyEvdpxkm1kBGrjE_g&s=19
    well since Reeves is clinging limpet like to Hunts plans thats also a Labour £3018 tax rise.

    And then on top there will be Labour's own tax rises. Reeves reported to be looking at 12 additional rises.
    That's why the £2,000 Labour tax-rise resonates - we all know it's going to be true.

    The only inaccuracy is that it's an underestimate.
    You do know that it resonates because everyone is looking at the record taxes they are paying for broken public services, and listening to you Tories claim to have cut taxes and think "lying sods".

    The more you repeat it, the more people are clear that you are absurd liars. Look at the polls this week. It is playing *the opposite* of what you just said.
    I'll keep saying it until polling day.

    Because it's not about us: it's about what Labour will do in office, since they will win.
    Just so we're clear, it isn't about the Tories now as you won't win? So when you said £2,000 tax rises under Labour, and the Spectator use the exact same methodology to show you are committed to £3,000 tax rises, we can ignore that as Labour will win and you won't?

    I agree that Labour will win BTW. And that this is about what opposition there is to them after the election. How do you feel about the idea of an MP who backstabbed his colleague in his hospital bed to take the nomination himself, planning to be a very part time MP and live hours away from the constituency? Having said that he couldn't be an MP as he needed to focus on being an MSP?
    Labour will raise taxes by far more than the Tories would do if they were to regain office.

    This is the crucial point: the choice is between two competing alternatives for government. One has already had to raise tax, against its instincts, to deal with Covid-19, Ukraine and inflationary/interest-rate fallout, and is gradually getting things back on track. The other wants to spend much much more on public services.

    Fair enough, but that money has to come from somewhere. It's not going to come from borrowing, it can't, so it can only come from extra tax.

    Where?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    Good Morning all. I have changed my mind about how the Tories will do in the election based on this weeks events and the debate last night On the Beeb. One seat in parliament. They will not come third. Last as reform will get two seats. Please advise where I can place this bet as no company will accept it at the moment.

    You can get 4/1 on Conservatives getting 0-49 seats: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/conservatives-seats
    Is that not unbelievably skinny odds for such an extraordinary event? Robert is able to point to a couple of examples, ever. I mean, it could happen but personally I would have thought that it was more like 40/1 than 4/1.

    On the one hand it shows where the money is going and how much trouble they are in. On the other...nah. I just can't compute such an outcome. My guesstimate of how many seats the Tories will win has come down but its still around 150.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    FF43 said:

    Done right, diversity and inclusion training is about getting people to see things from others' point of view, something people are not good at on the whole.

    An example from @MattW on this board is barriers on footpaths. Get colleagues to think who will be using this path? If you were in a wheelchair what would you want? You get a much better outcome for those users than with any number of regulations and policies.

    My employer is serious about DEI, does it well, and I think it shows up in somewhat better outcomes for customers and a better work environment.

    ROFL the last thing "Diversity" is about is diversity. It's about stifling conformity.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    edited June 8

    I want more polls.

    There will be lots more later today. It's a Saturday!
    Probably only Opinium at 8 if last week is a guide
    Normally during elections there a lots of polls which come out on a Sat afternoon/evening. Maybe this will only happen for the final one or two Saturdays?
    Well theyve pretty much all reported since Wednesday but maybe frequency will increase or we may see JLPs MRP. Theres a Scottish Ipsos due too
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Good Morning all. I have changed my mind about how the Tories will do in the election based on this weeks events and the debate last night On the Beeb. One seat in parliament. They will not come third. Last as reform will get two seats. Please advise where I can place this bet as no company will accept it at the moment.

    You can get 4/1 on Conservatives getting 0-49 seats: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/conservatives-seats
    Take a step back to recognise how astonishing this is.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,984

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Jim, the public applauding of the NHS at a designated time was cultish and creepy.

    Indeed Mr Dancer, I even had an anonymous note from my neighbours expressing their displeasure that I didn’t behave like a programmed automaton.
    How many words was your response?
    Zero.
    Can I ask you a question which is bugging me?

    Are you really a Tory as per your name?
    Yes and no. By inclination I lean towards the centre right but I’m no longer a party member and will probably vote elsewhere this time.

    Like most people if they’d admit it some of my views skew righter than others, some skew left. Even when I was a Tory member I was never slavishly adherent to every single thing they came up with.
    Then maybe consider changing your name?

    Not particularly good sport to call yourself a Tory if you're not one.
    Are you a casino and/or a James Bond novel?
    I call myself Casino Royale because I love Bond, love that novel, and I gamble - somewhat unfruitfully at times, I must admit.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,984

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Jim, the public applauding of the NHS at a designated time was cultish and creepy.

    Indeed Mr Dancer, I even had an anonymous note from my neighbours expressing their displeasure that I didn’t behave like a programmed automaton.
    How many words was your response?
    Zero.
    Can I ask you a question which is bugging me?

    Are you really a Tory as per your name?
    Yes and no. By inclination I lean towards the centre right but I’m no longer a party member and will probably vote elsewhere this time.

    Like most people if they’d admit it some of my views skew righter than others, some skew left. Even when I was a Tory member I was never slavishly adherent to every single thing they came up with.
    Then maybe consider changing your name?

    Not particularly good sport to call yourself a Tory if you're not one.
    Do you wear a black tuxedo, CR, and drink your vodka martinis shaken, not stirred?
    Well, actually, yes!
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813

    ToryJim said:

    King Harthacnut died #OnThisDay 1042, having ruled England for just two years. Brought in to replace his unpopular predecessor, he proved to be even worse. "He never did anything worthy of a king while he reigned" said the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle.

    https://x.com/longshanks1307/status/1799344199034388914?s=46

    I do love a bit of historian shade..

    Brilliant, and what a name! I wish I'd known of that when my son was born.
    Child cruelty!

    I learned that my parents contemplated calling me Pericles, BUT only as a middle name. I wouldn't have minded that.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    edited June 8
    ...

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Jim, the public applauding of the NHS at a designated time was cultish and creepy.

    Indeed Mr Dancer, I even had an anonymous note from my neighbours expressing their displeasure that I didn’t behave like a programmed automaton.
    How many words was your response?
    Zero.
    Can I ask you a question which is bugging me?

    Are you really a Tory as per your name?
    Yes and no. By inclination I lean towards the centre right but I’m no longer a party member and will probably vote elsewhere this time.

    Like most people if they’d admit it some of my views skew righter than others, some skew left. Even when I was a Tory member I was never slavishly adherent to every single thing they came up with.
    Then maybe consider changing your name?

    Not particularly good sport to call yourself a Tory if you're not one.
    I would absolutely consider myself a Tory. I just don’t consider that the party that is labelled Tory actually still is. Therefore I feel free to find a home for my vote that best represents my position.

    I hope the Conservatives eventually return to where I can feel at home. Sadly if they fall into the vampiric embrace of Nigel Farage and his nativists then I suspect that will be unlikely.
    Good morning

    I am in the same position and despite my anger to Sunak, the thought of Farage being anywhere near the conservative party is something that would condemn me to permanent exile

    Indeed how a poll has him coming out top last night amazes me, as it was clear he was not liked by the audience

    Sunak will be history in 4 weeks, deservedly so after his behaviour over D day, and Mordaunt had an impossible task last nght after he had not only compromised himself but all the conservative party

    I have just seen our candidate list and my postal vote in 10 days time will be going in for the Lib Dem as the only way I can deliver my verdict on Sunak, though it is only 1 vote and Labour will win the seat back from the conservatives easily

    It will be the first time I have voted Lib Dem in a GE
    HY will hunt you down as a Lib Dem for the next 27 years if you make that error. Remember 1997!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,984
    .
    Ghedebrav said:

    Good Morning all. I have changed my mind about how the Tories will do in the election based on this weeks events and the debate last night On the Beeb. One seat in parliament. They will not come third. Last as reform will get two seats. Please advise where I can place this bet as no company will accept it at the moment.

    You can get 4/1 on Conservatives getting 0-49 seats: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/conservatives-seats
    Take a step back to recognise how astonishing this is.
    A better bet was the 100/1 on Conservatives having no seats in Scotland.

    I tried to get £10 on. Hills said "no", allowed my 79p, and then cut the odds to 50/1
  • highwayparadise306highwayparadise306 Posts: 1,273
    In multiple European countries I meant.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894
    @AdamBienkov

    Not a good night for Penny Mordaunt or Rishi Sunak.

    Mordaunt the only candidate to have racked up net negative ratings for their debate performance, and yet still voters pick her over Sunak as PM

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1799308625447735496
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749

    ...

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Jim, the public applauding of the NHS at a designated time was cultish and creepy.

    Indeed Mr Dancer, I even had an anonymous note from my neighbours expressing their displeasure that I didn’t behave like a programmed automaton.
    How many words was your response?
    Zero.
    Can I ask you a question which is bugging me?

    Are you really a Tory as per your name?
    Yes and no. By inclination I lean towards the centre right but I’m no longer a party member and will probably vote elsewhere this time.

    Like most people if they’d admit it some of my views skew righter than others, some skew left. Even when I was a Tory member I was never slavishly adherent to every single thing they came up with.
    Then maybe consider changing your name?

    Not particularly good sport to call yourself a Tory if you're not one.
    I would absolutely consider myself a Tory. I just don’t consider that the party that is labelled Tory actually still is. Therefore I feel free to find a home for my vote that best represents my position.

    I hope the Conservatives eventually return to where I can feel at home. Sadly if they fall into the vampiric embrace of Nigel Farage and his nativists then I suspect that will be unlikely.
    Good morning

    I am in the same position and despite my anger to Sunak, the thought of Farage being anywhere near the conservative party is something that would condemn me to permanent exile

    Indeed how a poll has him coming out top last night amazes me, as it was clear he was not liked by the audience

    Sunak will be history in 4 weeks, deservedly so after his behaviour over D day, and Mordaunt had an impossible task last nght after he had not only compromised himself but all the conservative party

    I have just seen our candidate list and my postal vote in 10 days time will be going in for the Lib Dem as the only way I can deliver my verdict on Sunak, though it is only 1 vote and Labour will win the seat back from the conservatives easily

    It will be the first time I have voted Lib Dem in a GE
    HY will hunt you down as a Lib Dem for the next 27 years if you make that error. Remember 1997!
    I have no care what he does and indeed am resigned to be politically homeless for a very long time
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,474
    edited June 8
    Leicester East looks interesting. The bonkers crossover of community politics local politics and national politics makes for some strange cross currents. This is the area where the community disturbances between Hindutva and Muslim rabble rousers spilled over a couple of years back, and the Labour party purged itself of a number of sitting councillors because of an attempt to limit the power of the Labour mayor for being too autocratic. A number of councillors defected and seats were lost in a spread of different directions, mostly to pro-Modi Conservatives.

    The Constituency is 20% White British, 69% British South Asian including about 33% Hindu. Claudia Webbe is the deeply unpopular and invisible Independent MP parachuted in by Corbyn in 2019 over the head of the local Labour Party and since had the whip removed.

    There are 10 candidates on the ballot including Lab, Con, Reform, Green, LD and 5 others. Webbe is standing as an independent, Keith Vaz for One Leicester (composed mostly of deposed councillors from the Mayor's purge), and 3 further independents. These seem to be two Hindu and one pro-Gaza Muslim. One of the Hindu independents was recently a Conservative Councillor. The LD candidate is a well known local Councillor and health campaigner and Muslim. The Labour, Conservative and Reform candidates are all Hindu, and Vaz is Catholic, and retains a lot of support.

    It's very opaque as to how much support the various independents have, and who they will take votes from. Its a weird and heady brew and anything could happen, but I expect the Tory vote here is more pro-Sunak than nearly any other constituency in the country.

    I think Vaz and the pro-Gaza independent will mostly take votes off Labour, and the Hindutva vote may get similarly fragmented.

    Overall, I think a likely Lab win because of national issues, but I wouldn't rule out either the Tory or Vaz. The Tory is 5.5 at present, and I don't think that Vaz appears in a Constituency market yet.

    This could go anywhere!

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    I want more polls.

    Sorry, we've left the EU and they can't come any more.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Jim, the public applauding of the NHS at a designated time was cultish and creepy.

    Indeed Mr Dancer, I even had an anonymous note from my neighbours expressing their displeasure that I didn’t behave like a programmed automaton.
    How many words was your response?
    Zero.
    Can I ask you a question which is bugging me?

    Are you really a Tory as per your name?
    Yes and no. By inclination I lean towards the centre right but I’m no longer a party member and will probably vote elsewhere this time.

    Like most people if they’d admit it some of my views skew righter than others, some skew left. Even when I was a Tory member I was never slavishly adherent to every single thing they came up with.
    Then maybe consider changing your name?

    Not particularly good sport to call yourself a Tory if you're not one.
    I would absolutely consider myself a Tory. I just don’t consider that the party that is labelled Tory actually still is. Therefore I feel free to find a home for my vote that best represents my position.

    I hope the Conservatives eventually return to where I can feel at home. Sadly if they fall into the vampiric embrace of Nigel Farage and his nativists then I suspect that will be unlikely.
    Good morning

    I am in the same position and despite my anger to Sunak, the thought of Farage being anywhere near the conservative party is something that would condemn me to permanent exile

    Indeed how a poll has him coming out top last night amazes me, as it was clear he was not liked by the audience

    Sunak will be history in 4 weeks, deservedly so after his behaviour over D day, and Mordaunt had an impossible task last nght after he had not only compromised himself but all the conservative party

    I have just seen our candidate list and my postal vote in 10 days time will be going in for the Lib Dem as the only way I can deliver my verdict on Sunak, though it is only 1 vote and Labour will win the seat back from the conservatives easily

    It will be the first time I have voted Lib Dem in a GE
    Although we may not always see eye to eye I’ve appreciated following your thoughtful journey on this Big G.

    I might also be voting LibDem.

    I actually quite like their policies on a range of issues and I believe they may have the best chance in my constituency (Newton Abbot).

    I too dread the thought of Nigel Farage and hope he does not win Clacton, although in some ways it might be a way of keeping him quiet for 5 years if he has to serve as an MP of a far-right fringe party.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    I remember my brief stint as a working journalist. Top and tailing press releases so that they actually resemble something I had written. Not sure my new friend at The Northern Scot has even done that much...

    https://www.northern-scot.co.uk/news/liberal-democrats-announce-general-election-candidate-for-ab-352651/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

    Best of luck.

    Whats your policy on North Sea Oil ?
    Are you asking him to leak it?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.

    One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.

    Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?

    And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?

    Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
    I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of
    maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes

    The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
    Wise words
    I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
    I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.

    I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.

    One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
    DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
    Yeah, yeah, yeah...

    Speaking as somebody who suffered (insidious, usually unintentional) discrimination in the past, I'm all for it DEI.
    Casino Royale is, I’m afraid, a rather nasty piece of work.

    Look at his constant bullying of me, including his regular ‘EVERYONE hates you’.

    No wonder he doesn’t like DEI.

    He says I’m 'full of shit' but I’ve never encountered a more unpleasant individual online, as others have also experienced on here.

    If I were a pb tory I’d be msging him to dial it down. He’s confirming what a lot of us know, that The Nasty Party are in full control of the Conservatives. Pity them because they won’t ever win power in this country with his like.
    Heathener, if you were a rabid right-winger the PB faithful would be lapping up your every word, cf @Leon .

    Your problem is not your colourful backstory but the colour of your rosette. You are also quite hubristic which makes them angry. Only they are allowed to say "suck it up Remainer losers", "Captain Hindsight can never win an election" and "Boris will be a four term Churchillian PM, he got all the big calls right".
    How come I don't have a problem (usually) with you, Ben, Gallowgate, OLB, OKC or Jonathan then? And even Horse has ironed himself out recently?

    There a handful of Left-wing posters I do, but not the sensible ones.
    Come off it Casino, if you could be arsed you'd hate the ground I walked on. Your previous response to a serious post I made about VAT on schools was peppered with "f" bombs
    It's personal to me, and you said you couldn't care less.

    You got what you deserved.
    At it again with someone else now.

    You’re a truly terrible advert for the Conservative Party. I doubt you will listen to this but you really are.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Looking from the outside in government finances something doesn't seem to add up. We're under one of the highest tax burdens in peacetime but don't seem to get very much for our money. It feels like Labour are hoping that they will be able to spend the same money much more efficiently and be able to square that circle.

    Maybe a super majority for Starmer will allow the Labour government to make radical changes? Blair's often said that he rather wasted the majorities he had in the 1st and 2nd term and it was only in the 3rd term that the transformation of public services started. Hopefully Starmer will have listened to that.
  • lockhimuplockhimup Posts: 59

    Taz said:

    Labour attack ad on Reform/Farage

    Are they concerned about leaking voters to Reform ?

    https://x.com/uklabour/status/1799161866624643418?s=61

    Yep - first they ignore you, then laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

    We're at the fight you stage. They wouldn't be bothering unless they had concerning polling.
    Yeah, that old cliche. Beloved of Stuart Campbell of the Bath region of Scottish Separatists.

    Still, as (Roger Moore) James Bond accurately opined

    "We all get our jollies one way or another."
    But, Reform could dip their vote to 39.5% and steal a few seats from them, as well as open up a new medium-term strategic threat.

    SKS absolutely doesn't want that.
    If Labour are as overstated in polling as i suspect then 37 to 39 is quite a likely outcome
    I really don't expect LAB to get more than 38 but that will still be a huge win for them
    It will but it also limits their majority to a more 1997 type outcome at best
    Polling 38% might well lead to a huge Labour majority.

    L 38
    Ref 20
    Con 19
    LD 15

    For instance...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Ghedebrav said:

    Good Morning all. I have changed my mind about how the Tories will do in the election based on this weeks events and the debate last night On the Beeb. One seat in parliament. They will not come third. Last as reform will get two seats. Please advise where I can place this bet as no company will accept it at the moment.

    You can get 4/1 on Conservatives getting 0-49 seats: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/conservatives-seats
    Take a step back to recognise how astonishing this is.
    That's exactly what I was saying. In theory a 25% chance, less margins etc.

    It's still a lousy bet though.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. Andy, our debt interest payments are monstrous.

    Expect sod all media coverage of that, and likewise from the political class.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    DavidL said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Good Morning all. I have changed my mind about how the Tories will do in the election based on this weeks events and the debate last night On the Beeb. One seat in parliament. They will not come third. Last as reform will get two seats. Please advise where I can place this bet as no company will accept it at the moment.

    You can get 4/1 on Conservatives getting 0-49 seats: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/conservatives-seats
    Take a step back to recognise how astonishing this is.
    That's exactly what I was saying. In theory a 25% chance, less margins etc.

    It's still a lousy bet though.
    20%
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    A
    ydoethur said:

    I want more polls.

    Sorry, we've left the EU and they can't come any more.
    More Cheques?

    Or have they all been Cashed?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Scott_xP said:

    @AdamBienkov

    Not a good night for Penny Mordaunt or Rishi Sunak.

    Mordaunt the only candidate to have racked up net negative ratings for their debate performance, and yet still voters pick her over Sunak as PM

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1799308625447735496

    Mordaunt's last few outings, "fight for your right to party" and yesterday's catastrophe don't show her in an optimistic light. Surely it's the Braverman, Honest Bob wing that are in the ascendency.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    edited June 8

    DavidL said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Good Morning all. I have changed my mind about how the Tories will do in the election based on this weeks events and the debate last night On the Beeb. One seat in parliament. They will not come third. Last as reform will get two seats. Please advise where I can place this bet as no company will accept it at the moment.

    You can get 4/1 on Conservatives getting 0-49 seats: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/conservatives-seats
    Take a step back to recognise how astonishing this is.
    That's exactly what I was saying. In theory a 25% chance, less margins etc.

    It's still a lousy bet though.
    20%
    Of course. Need more coffee.

    And, of course, some cake.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813

    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    It looks like the Tories are going to put the abolition of NI in their manifesto as an ambition when the country can afford it .

    The problem here is how on earth the country could ever afford to lose that much revenue . And it’s risky because of the shadow of Truss . Given NI does go towards pensions if pensioners think it could effect that then it’s a problem for the Tories .

    Well indeed. The obvious question to Tory politicians is what further tax rises to make up the shortfall have they got planned above the increased tax bill of £3 018 already planned for the next parliament.

    Figure from the Spectator:

    https://x.com/FraserNelson/status/1799162430360019134?t=uJ9VFyEvdpxkm1kBGrjE_g&s=19
    well since Reeves is clinging limpet like to Hunts plans thats also a Labour £3018 tax rise.

    And then on top there will be Labour's own tax rises. Reeves reported to be looking at 12 additional rises.
    That's why the £2,000 Labour tax-rise resonates - we all know it's going to be true.

    The only inaccuracy is that it's an underestimate.
    You do know that it resonates because everyone is looking at the record taxes they are paying for broken public services, and listening to you Tories claim to have cut taxes and think "lying sods".

    The more you repeat it, the more people are clear that you are absurd liars. Look at the polls this week. It is playing *the opposite* of what you just said.
    I'll keep saying it until polling day.

    Because it's not about us: it's about what Labour will do in office, since they will win.
    Just so we're clear, it isn't about the Tories now as you won't win? So when you said £2,000 tax rises under Labour, and the Spectator use the exact same methodology to show you are committed to £3,000 tax rises, we can ignore that as Labour will win and you won't?

    I agree that Labour will win BTW. And that this is about what opposition there is to them after the election. How do you feel about the idea of an MP who backstabbed his colleague in his hospital bed to take the nomination himself, planning to be a very part time MP and live hours away from the constituency? Having said that he couldn't be an MP as he needed to focus on being an MSP?
    Labour will raise taxes by far more than the Tories would do if they were to regain office.

    This is the crucial point: the choice is between two competing alternatives for government. One has already had to raise tax, against its instincts, to deal with Covid-19, Ukraine and inflationary/interest-rate fallout, and is gradually getting things back on track. The other wants to spend much much more on public services.

    Fair enough, but that money has to come from somewhere. It's not going to come from borrowing, it can't, so it can only come from extra tax.

    Where?
    Not spending more money (or pretending not to: a hypothetical new Tory government wouldn't last very long before having to open the taps again for the NHS, they're too reliant on the grey vote,) also has serious consequences.

    Large hikes on CGT are an obvious place to start. Binning the triple lock would help, but that won't happen until it's forced and we're some way from that yet. The real gold mine is residential property, but I don't know if Labour will be brave enough to go for that one.

    Anyway, big taxes increases will be necessary, unless they really are going to the austerity well yet again. Either they use the state of the Treasury books as an excuse to rip up the manifesto this year, or they do so later in the Parliament when half the councils have gone bankrupt and it becomes obvious that the fantasy of huge growth-related increases in tax receipts ain't happening.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Heathener said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Jim, the public applauding of the NHS at a designated time was cultish and creepy.

    Indeed Mr Dancer, I even had an anonymous note from my neighbours expressing their displeasure that I didn’t behave like a programmed automaton.
    How many words was your response?
    Zero.
    Can I ask you a question which is bugging me?

    Are you really a Tory as per your name?
    Yes and no. By inclination I lean towards the centre right but I’m no longer a party member and will probably vote elsewhere this time.

    Like most people if they’d admit it some of my views skew righter than others, some skew left. Even when I was a Tory member I was never slavishly adherent to every single thing they came up with.
    Then maybe consider changing your name?

    Not particularly good sport to call yourself a Tory if you're not one.
    I would absolutely consider myself a Tory. I just don’t consider that the party that is labelled Tory actually still is. Therefore I feel free to find a home for my vote that best represents my position.

    I hope the Conservatives eventually return to where I can feel at home. Sadly if they fall into the vampiric embrace of Nigel Farage and his nativists then I suspect that will be unlikely.
    Good morning

    I am in the same position and despite my anger to Sunak, the thought of Farage being anywhere near the conservative party is something that would condemn me to permanent exile

    Indeed how a poll has him coming out top last night amazes me, as it was clear he was not liked by the audience

    Sunak will be history in 4 weeks, deservedly so after his behaviour over D day, and Mordaunt had an impossible task last nght after he had not only compromised himself but all the conservative party

    I have just seen our candidate list and my postal vote in 10 days time will be going in for the Lib Dem as the only way I can deliver my verdict on Sunak, though it is only 1 vote and Labour will win the seat back from the conservatives easily

    It will be the first time I have voted Lib Dem in a GE
    Although we may not always see eye to eye I’ve appreciated following your thoughtful journey on this Big G.

    I might also be voting LibDem.

    I actually quite like their policies on a range of issues and I believe they may have the best chance in my constituency (Newton Abbot).

    I too dread the thought of Nigel Farage and hope he does not win Clacton, although in some ways it might be a way of keeping him quiet for 5 years if he has to serve as an MP of a far-right fringe party.
    I’ll be voting LD as I generally need to in my seat; essentially it’s the Not-Tory vote. LDs are not my party, as far as I can think of myself as having one, but the candidate seems decent, has certainly paid his dues as a councillor (the secret sauce of the Lib Dems; this is how they are the bindweed of British politics) and on the national level they don’t seem too insane.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,467
    Taz said:

    Missed the debate last night. We were supposed to go out, got caught in a downpour on the way to the station. Came home. Dried off. Drank a bottle of my 13% cider and fell asleep. However social media tells me the winner was the person from the party the poster most supports. Any impartial views on the debate ? I saw a poll by more in common had Farage as the winner.

    I’d say Farage won (as far as ‘winning’ is possible in a seven way debate) with Angela a good second. Penny was a bit school mommy - suffered from being stationed next to Angela, who was always going to dominate her.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,984
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.

    One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.

    Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?

    And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?

    Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
    I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of
    maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes

    The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
    Wise words
    I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
    I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.

    I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.

    One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
    DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
    Yeah, yeah, yeah...

    Speaking as somebody who suffered (insidious, usually unintentional) discrimination in the past, I'm all for it DEI.
    Casino Royale is, I’m afraid, a rather nasty piece of work.

    Look at his constant bullying of me, including his regular ‘EVERYONE hates you’.

    No wonder he doesn’t like DEI.

    He says I’m 'full of shit' but I’ve never encountered a more unpleasant individual online, as others have also experienced on here.

    If I were a pb tory I’d be msging him to dial it down. He’s confirming what a lot of us know, that The Nasty Party are in full control of the Conservatives. Pity them because they won’t ever win power in this country with his like.
    Heathener, if you were a rabid right-winger the PB faithful would be lapping up your every word, cf @Leon .

    Your problem is not your colourful backstory but the colour of your rosette. You are also quite hubristic which makes them angry. Only they are allowed to say "suck it up Remainer losers", "Captain Hindsight can never win an election" and "Boris will be a four term Churchillian PM, he got all the big calls right".
    How come I don't have a problem (usually) with you, Ben, Gallowgate, OLB, OKC or Jonathan then? And even Horse has ironed himself out recently?

    There a handful of Left-wing posters I do, but not the sensible ones.
    Come off it Casino, if you could be arsed you'd hate the ground I walked on. Your previous response to a serious post I made about VAT on schools was peppered with "f" bombs
    It's personal to me, and you said you couldn't care less.

    You got what you deserved.
    At it again with someone else now.

    You’re a truly terrible advert for the Conservative Party. I doubt you will listen to this but you really are.
    I find posts like this interesting because it offers a revealing insight into why you're on here and how you think.

    I don't post on here to promote or advertise the Conservative Party - as an activist, apparatchik or employee would - I post on here my own views exactly how I want to post them, and to exchange betting tips.
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