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Main opposition party leader seat polling from @Lord Ashcroft pic.twitter.com/NtRm0hCnih
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Tories up 2 points in Doncaster North compared to GE2010? Seems odd.0
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http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/thanet-south/winning-party
Hills and Paddy still 9-2 ! (Con/Thanet South)0 -
Clegg is safe.0
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Look at the best PM ratings in Thanet South too !0
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The Power of Ed.AndyJS said:Tories up 2 points in Doncaster North compared to GE2010? Seems odd.
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Swings from Con to LD in Thornbury&Yate and Carshalton&Wallington.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/11/lord-ashcroft-some-surprises-in-my-latest-constituency-polling-and-a-look-at-the-leaders-backyards.html0 -
Not too many surprises in the Con-LD battleground. Two observations:
-John Hemmings has the mother of all incumbency boosts.
-Conservatives unchanged in Watford since last poll, the LD selection has tore into Labour share.0 -
Only Party leader to retain/gain seat would be Cameron ???0
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Probably but 1-3 looks skinny.TheScreamingEagles said:Clegg is safe.
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Surprising about Farage. If he can't get elected, then I suspect many of UKIP's other targets will also fail to fall.0
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Farage in big trouble - LabLIbCon types will tactically vote again to stop the Kipper.
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How funny if Farage wasn't elected while Miliband and Clegg lost their seats!0
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Cameron is the safestlogical_song said:Only Party leader to retain/gain seat would be Cameron ???
Then Ed
Then Nick (But not 1-3 safe)
Nigel is a 3 way coin flip and is the worst value in the betting markets at a ridiculous 4-11.0 -
IMO Yardley could be the only constituency in the country where the LD share rises.Artist said:Not too many surprises in the Con-LD battleground. Two observations:
-John Hemmings has the mother of all incumbency boosts.
-Conservatives unchanged in Watford since last poll, the LD selection has tore into Labour share.0 -
Can UKIP ever win a parliamentary seat when their candidate isn't a traitorous pig dog?MarqueeMark said:Surprising about Farage. If he can't get elected, then I suspect many of UKIP's other targets will also fail to fall.
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Have to admit John Hemmings must be doing a stunning job in Yardley.0
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Yes a complete overreaction on my part. I think Ed and Nick will be OK.Pulpstar said:
Cameron is the safestlogical_song said:Only Party leader to retain/gain seat would be Cameron ???
Then Ed
Then Nick (But not 1-3 safe)
Nigel is a 3 way coin flip and is the worst value in the betting markets at a ridiculous 4-11.
After the election can Farage remain as UKIP leader if Carswell and a couple of other UKIPers get elected as MPs and he doesn't?0 -
The only thing to say about Witney is that it was surprising how close Labour got to winning it in 1997 and 2001, about 7,000 votes on each occasion.Pulpstar said:
Cameron is the safestlogical_song said:Only Party leader to retain/gain seat would be Cameron ???
Then Ed
Then Nick (But not 1-3 safe)
Nigel is a 3 way coin flip and is the worst value in the betting markets at a ridiculous 4-11.0 -
The Wyre Forest poll needs to be treated with caution. Lord Ashcroft has apparently not prompted for NHA (curiously, he did prompt for Plaid Cymru in Brecon & Radnorshire where Plaid have no particular history of support), so Dr Richard Taylor's personal vote in this seat may well be understated. I write as someone sitting on a 25/1 bet on UKIP in this constituency.0
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UKIP in the lead in Thanet South until weighting by 2010 vote is applied
Farage wasn't the candidate then, and UKIP got 3% of the vote Nationally in 2010. If you think that is of no significance/that he might be a drag on the UKIP vote rather than a boost for it then I guess you could back the Tories0 -
Table 4 has UKIP winning.MarqueeMark said:Surprising about Farage. If he can't get elected, then I suspect many of UKIP's other targets will also fail to fall.
UKIP 35%, Con 32%, Lab 26%
Its only the reallocation of 'don't know' voters to their 2010 choice that swings it for the Conservatives in Table 5.
UKIP 29%, Con 33%, Lab 27%
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Thanet-South-poll-Nov-14-Full-tables.pdf
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Carswell is going to cut a lonely figure in the next Parliament..... Sitting uncomfortably with the Labour opposition as the sole representative of the Misguided Pig-Dog Traitor Can I Come Back Yet Dave? PartyTheScreamingEagles said:
Can UKIP ever win a parliamentary seat when their candidate isn't a traitorous pig dog?MarqueeMark said:Surprising about Farage. If he can't get elected, then I suspect many of UKIP's other targets will also fail to fall.
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Cameron leads Farage on the best PM question in this seat. I'm not saying its impossible for Farage to win it but the current odds are 4-11 UKIP; 9-2 Con.isam said:UKIP in the lead in Thanet South until weighting by 2010 vote is applied
Farage wasn't the candidate then, and UKIP got 3% of the vote Nationally in 2010. If you think that is of no significance/that he might be a drag on the UKIP vote rather than a boost for it then I guess you could back the Tories
It's a no brainer.0 -
4-11; 11-4 the pair now in Thanet South.0
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Since Farage can't be, and in any case doesn't want to be PM, this is hardly a revelation.Pulpstar said:
Cameron leads Farage on the best PM question in this seat. I'm not saying its impossible for Farage to win it but the current odds are 4-11 UKIP; 9-2 Con.isam said:UKIP in the lead in Thanet South until weighting by 2010 vote is applied
Farage wasn't the candidate then, and UKIP got 3% of the vote Nationally in 2010. If you think that is of no significance/that he might be a drag on the UKIP vote rather than a boost for it then I guess you could back the Tories
It's a no brainer.0 -
Labour is out of it in my opinion there. Their votes will split both anti-UKIP and anti-Con to UKIP/Con I reckon.0
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One important point to note if I am reading the polls correctly is that whilst the "your constituency" question is polled the candidates names are not. This will have an effect in many of these seats especially Watford.0
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IIRC UKIP were ahead in the local elections either this or last year.antifrank said:The Wyre Forest poll needs to be treated with caution. Lord Ashcroft has apparently not prompted for NHA (curiously, he did prompt for Plaid Cymru in Brecon & Radnorshire where Plaid have no particular history of support), so Dr Richard Taylor's personal vote in this seat may well be understated. I write as someone sitting on a 25/1 bet on UKIP in this constituency.
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QTWTAI Boston & Skegness.TheScreamingEagles said:
Can UKIP ever win a parliamentary seat when their candidate isn't a traitorous pig dog?MarqueeMark said:Surprising about Farage. If he can't get elected, then I suspect many of UKIP's other targets will also fail to fall.
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Meanwhile, Forage will be crying all the way to the bank, with his EU allowances.MarqueeMark said:
Carswell is going to cut a lonely figure in the next Parliament..... Sitting uncomfortably with the Labour opposition as the sole representative of the Misguided Pig-Dog Traitor Can I Come Back Yet Dave? PartyTheScreamingEagles said:
Can UKIP ever win a parliamentary seat when their candidate isn't a traitorous pig dog?MarqueeMark said:Surprising about Farage. If he can't get elected, then I suspect many of UKIP's other targets will also fail to fall.
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FTPT
Scotland is already getting borrowing powers independent of the Smith Commission under the 2012 Scotland Act.Patrick said:
I can't believe they proposed it. Really. It is clearly for me the most headline worthy part of the whole Smith Commission. I hope Dave thanks them for their work and just leaves the ability to borrow out of the legislation. It is batshit crazy to let Scotland borrow independently, knowing ful lwell England will be obliged to backstop the loans. It makes final independnce a certainty in my view now. WTF were they thinking?
Given that the Scottish government under-spends its budget every year its not that note worthy.0 -
No shock
@LadPolitics: Latest @LordAshcroft polling has resulted in some dramatic changes in the betting esp Thanet South & Portsmouth South odds.0 -
This won't do UKIP any harm in places like Doncaster North:
"Net migration hits 260,000 in new blow for Government pledge
Surge of 78,000 year-on-year driven by eastern European migrants after ministers admit promise to cut net migration has been 'blown off course'"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11256116/Net-migration-hits-260000-in-new-blow-for-Government-pledge.html0 -
I agree with Mike.
The betting story here is that LDs are hanging tough in LD/Con marginals, but less so in LD/Lab marginals. This will make it very difficult for the Tories to win an overall majority.
NOM looks increasingly likely. Even at 1/2, it's probably still the value bet.
To my surprise, I find myself buying LD on the seats spreads.0 -
On Twitter OGH claiming the new Ashcroft poll indicates Tories going to struggle to win lots of LibDem seats. Only problem for his argument is this group of seats start at 9+% majorities and Tories still taking 2 of them on basis of this poll. Implies the 12 or 15 which would go Tory in earlier polls definitely going Tory.
If Farage can't be ahead now after Clacton and Rochester in his chosen seat, Laura Sandys is correct, he will remain an MEP on 8th May. Carswell to be UKIP leader by June?0 -
Of course.TheScreamingEagles said:No shock
@LadPolitics: Latest @LordAshcroft polling has resulted in some dramatic changes in the betting esp Thanet South & Portsmouth South odds.
Thanet South now 4-6/7-4.0 -
Appalling numbers for the Tories in Carshalton & Wallington:
LD 43% (-5)
Con 23% (-14)
UKIP 17% (+14)
Lab 12% (+3)0 -
Buying the Lib Dems was my first choice when Spin opened the market.Peter_the_Punter said:I agree with Mike.
The betting story here is that LDs are hanging tough in LD/Con marginals, but less so in LD/Lab marginals. This will make it very difficult for the Tories to win an overall majority.
NOM looks increasingly likely. Even at 1/2, it's probably still the value bet.
To my surprise, I find myself buying LD on the seats spreads.0 -
Confirming the May local election results here and in Sutton/Cheam and the Lord A poll in the latterAndyJS said:Appalling numbers for the Tories in Carshalton & Wellington:
LD 43% (-5)
Con 23% (-14)
UKIP 17% (+14)
Lab 12% (+3)0 -
NOM is a 90% certainty IMO. The only way a majority could happen is through a series of statistical flukes, with one party winning loads of seats with 30%.0
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It implies nothing of the sort , stick to your ludicrous forecasts of Conservative mass gains in Scotland .Easterross said:On Twitter OGH claiming the new Ashcroft poll indicates Tories going to struggle to win lots of LibDem seats. Only problem for his argument is this group of seats start at 9+% majorities and Tories still taking 2 of them on basis of this poll. Implies the 12 or 15 which would go Tory in earlier polls definitely going Tory.
If Farage can't be ahead now after Clacton and Rochester in his chosen seat, Laura Sandys is correct, he will remain an MEP on 8th May. Carswell to be UKIP leader by June?
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Not wanting to doubt the figures, but can someone explain why the constituency question makes such a difference? I get why a Labour voter would vote Lib Dem (though that is questionable!), but I don't get why someone saying they'd vote Tory in a standard question would then switch to the Lib Dems in a constituency question?
I might be being a bit thick here, but do these people understand that by voting Lib Dem instead of Tory they may prevent a Tory majority? Or do they love their local Lib Dem MP that much?0 -
I thought Lord A was also going to be publishing a Scotland poll, or did I imagine that?0
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I've often thought both Sutton seats are the sort of places where UKIP takes most of its votes from Tories in contrast to other parts of the country like the south west where there's much more of an even divide.MarkSenior said:
Confirming the May local election results here and in Sutton/Cheam and the Lord A poll in the latterAndyJS said:Appalling numbers for the Tories in Carshalton & Wellington:
LD 43% (-5)
Con 23% (-14)
UKIP 17% (+14)
Lab 12% (+3)0 -
Bit odd isn't it, the Labour vote share barely changes in alot of these "sticky" LD seats.tlg86 said:Not wanting to doubt the figures, but can someone explain why the constituency question makes such a difference? I get why a Labour voter would vote Lib Dem (though that is questionable!), but I don't get why someone saying they'd vote Tory in a standard question would then switch to the Lib Dems in a constituency question?
I might be being a bit thick here, but do these people understand that by voting Lib Dem instead of Tory they may prevent a Tory majority? Or do they love their local Lib Dem MP that much?0 -
Tories heading for victory in North Devon, Watford and Portsmouth South with 30% of the vote.0
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Pretty much agree , tho I think Yardley , Cambridge and Bermondsey/Southwark and Cardiff Central will be LD holds against Labour .Peter_the_Punter said:I agree with Mike.
The betting story here is that LDs are hanging tough in LD/Con marginals, but less so in LD/Lab marginals. This will make it very difficult for the Tories to win an overall majority.
NOM looks increasingly likely. Even at 1/2, it's probably still the value bet.
To my surprise, I find myself buying LD on the seats spreads.
I am sticking with my 36-40 LD seats after next May .0 -
They did very well in both years. That's why I backed them at 25/1!AndyJS said:
IIRC UKIP were ahead in the local elections either this or last year.antifrank said:The Wyre Forest poll needs to be treated with caution. Lord Ashcroft has apparently not prompted for NHA (curiously, he did prompt for Plaid Cymru in Brecon & Radnorshire where Plaid have no particular history of support), so Dr Richard Taylor's personal vote in this seat may well be understated. I write as someone sitting on a 25/1 bet on UKIP in this constituency.
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Having been asked how they will vote, why do so many apparently change their minds when asked about their own constituency? When they get to the ballot box they will most likely vote for their first preference. The second question is largely bollocks. Nobody will be asking it when they get to the polling station.0
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I think he's been hampered by a poor response rate.Richard_Nabavi said:I thought Lord A was also going to be publishing a Scotland poll, or did I imagine that?
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Am I the only one who wonders why the UKIP figures in many of these constituencies are significantly higher than the national polling?
You would have thought that the mainstream parties might be working harder on the ground and therefore reducing their share.
But there appears to be no evidence of this.
In addition some of the changes between national and local intention look astonishingly large.0 -
Mike K's 70 MPs being questioned by St Dan
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges·54 secs55 seconds ago London, England
I reckon @DouglasCarswell is the only Kipper with any chance of being an MP after 2015. And at that point he'll defect back.0 -
A margin of 1-2% in North Devon and Watford does not mean heading for victory at this stage , it means in with a shout .AndyJS said:Tories heading for victory in North Devon, Watford and Portsmouth South with 30% of the vote.
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Yes, these polls tell me the Tories will make 7-9 gains from the Lib Dems rather than 14-16. But we'll see about the rest. These are some of the strongest Lib Dem seats.Easterross said:On Twitter OGH claiming the new Ashcroft poll indicates Tories going to struggle to win lots of LibDem seats. Only problem for his argument is this group of seats start at 9+% majorities and Tories still taking 2 of them on basis of this poll. Implies the 12 or 15 which would go Tory in earlier polls definitely going Tory.
If Farage can't be ahead now after Clacton and Rochester in his chosen seat, Laura Sandys is correct, he will remain an MEP on 8th May. Carswell to be UKIP leader by June?
There wasn't much in the more marginal ones.0 -
Is Dan wanting to offer evens on Boston & Skeggy ?Scrapheap_as_was said:Mike K's 70 MPs being questioned by St Dan
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges·54 secs55 seconds ago London, England
I reckon @DouglasCarswell is the only Kipper with any chance of being an MP after 2015. And at that point he'll defect back.0 -
Not good polling for the Tories I guess, but did they ever expect to take LD seats with majorities of 6k plus? I bet they were all former Tory seats and now most of the Lib Dem MPs are well dug in0
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It helps respondents do some of the thinking they haven't already done but will do before they get to cast their vote.Eastwinger said:Having been asked how they will vote, why do so many apparently change their minds when asked about their own constituency? When they get to the ballot box they will most likely vote for their first preference. The second question is largely bollocks. Nobody will be asking it when they get to the polling station.
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The really startling thing about this poll is the GIGANTIC differences between Q1 (how will you vote?) and Q2 (how will you vote, thinking about this constituency?). The differences shown previously in Tory and Labour seats were modest, and not always to the incumbent. Here, Q2 completely changes the picture.
Which just leaves a little niggle. If people are that set on voting tactically, why don't they say so in reply to Q1? That suggests that most people are just responding without thinking about the constituency, and it's only when that aspect is prompted for that they think oh, yeah, well, if you put it like that... The LibDems still have a bit of work to do in hardening up the intention.
Incidentally, I chatted to John Hemmings (Yardley) at the LibDem conference (we're bridge partners). He was cautiously hopeful though he said it was really impossible to be sure.0 -
He can stay where he is.Scrapheap_as_was said:Mike K's 70 MPs being questioned by St Dan
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges·54 secs55 seconds ago London, England
I reckon @DouglasCarswell is the only Kipper with any chance of being an MP after 2015. And at that point he'll defect back.
I don't want him back.0 -
Farage 'in trouble' in Thanet South? He isn't even the sitting MP! The kipperphobia on here at times is beyond parody.0
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Not really, Ukip got 18% in Lord Ashcroft's last national poll on Mondaymichaelcollins10 said:Am I the only one who wonders why the UKIP figures in many of these constituencies are significantly higher than the national polling?
You would have thought that the mainstream parties might be working harder on the ground and therefore reducing their share.
But there appears to be no evidence of this.
In addition some of the changes between national and local intention look astonishingly large.0 -
Tories struggling in one of their top target seats north of the border. With Jim Murphy retiring from Westminster in May the Tories really ought to have been a shoo-in. Before Murphy's appearance in the constituency it used to reliably return thumping Tory majorities.
East Renfrewshire - Result 2010
Lab (Jim Murphy MP) 25,987
Con 15,567
LD 4,720
SNP 4,535
UKIP 372
But look at Shadsy's current pricing:
East Renfrewshire - Ladbrokes
Lab 1/3
SNP 5/2
Con 20/1
UKIP 100/1
LD 100/10 -
Hope everyone got on the Cons at 9-2 ^_~Luckyguy1983 said:Farage 'in trouble' in Thanet South? He isn't even the sitting MP! The kipperphobia on here at times is beyond parody.
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What are the odds on a single Kipper MP ?Scrapheap_as_was said:Mike K's 70 MPs being questioned by St Dan
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges·54 secs55 seconds ago London, England
I reckon @DouglasCarswell is the only Kipper with any chance of being an MP after 2015. And at that point he'll defect back.
20-1 or so and I'd be on it like a hooker on a phallus that emitted a brewed beverage to paraphrase Irvine Welsh.0 -
Mark, as a political tipster I have you only marginally ahead of Roger and the hapless Seth O Logue.MarkSenior said:
Pretty much agree , tho I think Yardley , Cambridge and Bermondsey/Southwark and Cardiff Central will be LD holds against Labour .Peter_the_Punter said:I agree with Mike.
The betting story here is that LDs are hanging tough in LD/Con marginals, but less so in LD/Lab marginals. This will make it very difficult for the Tories to win an overall majority.
NOM looks increasingly likely. Even at 1/2, it's probably still the value bet.
To my surprise, I find myself buying LD on the seats spreads.
I am sticking with my 36-40 LD seats after next May .
But for once I agree with you! ;-)
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So Mr Clegg has a chance to hold on then?MarkSenior said:
A margin of 1-2% in North Devon and Watford does not mean heading for victory at this stage , it means in with a shout .AndyJS said:Tories heading for victory in North Devon, Watford and Portsmouth South with 30% of the vote.
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No. Shadsy is too fast for me.Pulpstar said:
Hope everyone got on the Cons at 9-2 ^_~Luckyguy1983 said:Farage 'in trouble' in Thanet South? He isn't even the sitting MP! The kipperphobia on here at times is beyond parody.
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Well said Jack. Your money is safe.JackW said:One important point to note if I am reading the polls correctly is that whilst the "your constituency" question is polled the candidates names are not. This will have an effect in many of these seats especially Watford.
Would Farage's name helped or hindered UKIP figures in Thanet S?
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Cambridge Huppert hold is free money and is better than evens. The Labour candidate is atrocious and finished a poor 3rd last time.MarkSenior said:
Pretty much agree , tho I think Yardley , Cambridge and Bermondsey/Southwark and Cardiff Central will be LD holds against Labour .Peter_the_Punter said:I agree with Mike.
The betting story here is that LDs are hanging tough in LD/Con marginals, but less so in LD/Lab marginals. This will make it very difficult for the Tories to win an overall majority.
NOM looks increasingly likely. Even at 1/2, it's probably still the value bet.
To my surprise, I find myself buying LD on the seats spreads.
I am sticking with my 36-40 LD seats after next May .
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I had a look at this a little while ago:michaelcollins10 said:Am I the only one who wonders why the UKIP figures in many of these constituencies are significantly higher than the national polling?
You would have thought that the mainstream parties might be working harder on the ground and therefore reducing their share.
But there appears to be no evidence of this.
In addition some of the changes between national and local intention look astonishingly large.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.com/2014/11/reading-entrails-few-polling.html0 -
I have taken up bridge again after a 35 year gap , I play online at Bridgeclublive , really enjoying it .NickPalmer said:The really startling thing about this poll is the GIGANTIC differences between Q1 (how will you vote?) and Q2 (how will you vote, thinking about this constituency?). The differences shown previously in Tory and Labour seats were modest, and not always to the incumbent. Here, Q2 completely changes the picture.
Which just leaves a little niggle. If people are that set on voting tactically, why don't they say so in reply to Q1? That suggests that most people are just responding without thinking about the constituency, and it's only when that aspect is prompted for that they think oh, yeah, well, if you put it like that... The LibDems still have a bit of work to do in hardening up the intention.
Incidentally, I chatted to John Hemmings (Yardley) at the LibDem conference (we're bridge partners). He was cautiously hopeful though he said it was really impossible to be sure.0 -
Hah Shadsy rather smartly pulled his markets whilst the polls came out.Casino_Royale said:
No. Shadsy is too fast for me.Pulpstar said:
Hope everyone got on the Cons at 9-2 ^_~Luckyguy1983 said:Farage 'in trouble' in Thanet South? He isn't even the sitting MP! The kipperphobia on here at times is beyond parody.
Hills & Paddy are your friends ^_@0 -
plebgate verdict imminent...0
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Exactly the same weighting adjustment was made in Lord A's Rochester poll and still it overstated UKIP by 5%.isam said:UKIP in the lead in Thanet South until weighting by 2010 vote is applied
Farage wasn't the candidate then, and UKIP got 3% of the vote Nationally in 2010. If you think that is of no significance/that he might be a drag on the UKIP vote rather than a boost for it then I guess you could back the Tories
Dream on. You are in trouble.
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What is your view?MikeSmithson said:
Well said Jack. Your money is safe.JackW said:One important point to note if I am reading the polls correctly is that whilst the "your constituency" question is polled the candidates names are not. This will have an effect in many of these seats especially Watford.
Would Farage's name helped or hindered UKIP figures in Thanet S?0 -
He's very busy round these parts, I do work in the constituency (leaflets with little or no Lib Dem branding ofc). A lot of people who don't pay much attention to politics will just notice a diligent MP putting in the hours, not a horrible Lib Dem that has propped up a Tory governmentPulpstar said:Have to admit John Hemmings must be doing a stunning job in Yardley.
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Looking very tight in the key Con/LD battle north of the border: Berwickshire et al (Michael Moore MP, the sacked Scottish Secretary).
LD EVS
Con 11/10
SNP 6/1
UKIP 100/1
Lab 100/1
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk - Result 2010
LD (Michael Moore MP) 22,230
Con 16,555
Lab 5,003
SNP 4,497
UKIP 595
Jacobite 134
The Tories are going with the same candidate again: John Lamont MSP, the Scottish Conservative Chief Whip and Parliamentary Business Manager.0 -
LOL , check my record back to pb.com's first competition on here at the Cheadle by election in 2005 sadly no prize for first in those days .Peter_the_Punter said:
Mark, as a political tipster I have you only marginally ahead of Roger and the hapless Seth O Logue.MarkSenior said:
Pretty much agree , tho I think Yardley , Cambridge and Bermondsey/Southwark and Cardiff Central will be LD holds against Labour .Peter_the_Punter said:I agree with Mike.
The betting story here is that LDs are hanging tough in LD/Con marginals, but less so in LD/Lab marginals. This will make it very difficult for the Tories to win an overall majority.
NOM looks increasingly likely. Even at 1/2, it's probably still the value bet.
To my surprise, I find myself buying LD on the seats spreads.
I am sticking with my 36-40 LD seats after next May .
But for once I agree with you! ;-)0 -
Both (Kind of) I think Labour will vote BOTH anti-Farage and anti-Con in Thanet South.MikeSmithson said:
Well said Jack. Your money is safe.JackW said:One important point to note if I am reading the polls correctly is that whilst the "your constituency" question is polled the candidates names are not. This will have an effect in many of these seats especially Watford.
Would Farage's name helped or hindered UKIP figures in Thanet S?0 -
Or they feel that the 'right' thing to do is to give a different answer.NickPalmer said:The really startling thing about this poll is the GIGANTIC differences between Q1 (how will you vote?) and Q2 (how will you vote, thinking about this constituency?). The differences shown previously in Tory and Labour seats were modest, and not always to the incumbent. Here, Q2 completely changes the picture.
Which just leaves a little niggle. If people are that set on voting tactically, why don't they say so in reply to Q1? That suggests that most people are just responding without thinking about the constituency, and it's only when that aspect is prompted for that they think oh, yeah, well, if you put it like that...
I'm sceptical about this whole issue - we just don't know enough to be able say definitively that Q2 is a better guide to the final result than Q1. It might be, but we can't be sure.
Equally it is hard to know how much credence to give to the different swings in different seats. By the time you factor in statistical noise and weighting difficulties, the differences might not be very reliable at all.
It will make for a very interesting post-mortem.
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Interesting. Shadsy has just cut his UKIP price in Doncaster North (Ed Miliband MP). New prices:
Lab 1/20 (from 1/100 this morning)
UKIP 8/1 (from 12/1 this morning)
Con 33/1 (from 50/1 this morning)
LD 100/10 -
I'm prepared to call the Doncaster North poll an outlier.
It just doesn't feel right.
Not doubting Lord Ashcroft's integrity at all.
But the Tories up since 2010. I know Ed is crap but still.0 -
Those revelling at the prospect of Farage's demise in Thanet South may still be disappointed.MikeSmithson said:
Well said Jack. Your money is safe.JackW said:One important point to note if I am reading the polls correctly is that whilst the "your constituency" question is polled the candidates names are not. This will have an effect in many of these seats especially Watford.
Would Farage's name helped or hindered UKIP figures in Thanet S?
Constituents like having leaders as their MP and Farage will enjoy even greater prominence during the election and the media will focus heavily on the seat. Ukip will also pour resources into the seat. However a cross current will be tactical voting against him.
On balance I believe Farage is favourite to win the seat.
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No prizes for having a sense of humour too, Mark!MarkSenior said:
LOL , check my record back to pb.com's first competition on here at the Cheadle by election in 2005 sadly no prize for first in those days .Peter_the_Punter said:
Mark, as a political tipster I have you only marginally ahead of Roger and the hapless Seth O Logue.MarkSenior said:
Pretty much agree , tho I think Yardley , Cambridge and Bermondsey/Southwark and Cardiff Central will be LD holds against Labour .Peter_the_Punter said:I agree with Mike.
The betting story here is that LDs are hanging tough in LD/Con marginals, but less so in LD/Lab marginals. This will make it very difficult for the Tories to win an overall majority.
NOM looks increasingly likely. Even at 1/2, it's probably still the value bet.
To my surprise, I find myself buying LD on the seats spreads.
I am sticking with my 36-40 LD seats after next May .
But for once I agree with you! ;-)
If there were, you'd have several by now. Well done.
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I think he'd have lost had Ms Sandys stood again.JackW said:
Those revelling at the prospect of Farage's demise in Thanet South may still be disappointed.MikeSmithson said:
Well said Jack. Your money is safe.JackW said:One important point to note if I am reading the polls correctly is that whilst the "your constituency" question is polled the candidates names are not. This will have an effect in many of these seats especially Watford.
Would Farage's name helped or hindered UKIP figures in Thanet S?
Constituents like having leaders as their MP and Farage will enjoy even greater prominence during the election and the media will focus heavily on the seat. Ukip will also pour resources into the seat. However a cross current will be tactical voting against him.
On balance I believe Farage is favourite to win the seat.
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I do agree with you Mike on this (and actually on much). I've always thought UKIP are flattering to deceive under FPTP and that the LibDems will outperform current expectations when it comes to seats: they always do. My bet with Isam that LD will win 4x the seats of UKIP looks good from this.MikeSmithson said:
Exactly the same weighting adjustment was made in Lord A's Rochester poll and still it overstated UKIP by 5%.isam said:UKIP in the lead in Thanet South until weighting by 2010 vote is applied
Farage wasn't the candidate then, and UKIP got 3% of the vote Nationally in 2010. If you think that is of no significance/that he might be a drag on the UKIP vote rather than a boost for it then I guess you could back the Tories
Dream on. You are in trouble.
However, I still want to take all this with a bit of a pinch of salt. I'd like to see Ashcroft repeat the same polling month on month so we have a point of reference. Then we can spot trends. This feels too much like pinning a tail on the donkey.0 -
Well you can have a very bad value winner in Labour there for sure.Stuart_Dickson said:Interesting. Shadsy has just cut his UKIP price in Doncaster North (Ed Miliband MP). New prices:
Lab 1/20 (from 1/100 this morning)
UKIP 8/1 (from 12/1 this morning)
Con 33/1 (from 50/1 this morning)
LD 100/1
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Ah Mike. So aggressive when it comes to UKIPMikeSmithson said:
Exactly the same weighting adjustment was made in Lord A's Rochester poll and still it overstated UKIP by 5%.isam said:UKIP in the lead in Thanet South until weighting by 2010 vote is applied
Farage wasn't the candidate then, and UKIP got 3% of the vote Nationally in 2010. If you think that is of no significance/that he might be a drag on the UKIP vote rather than a boost for it then I guess you could back the Tories
Dream on. You are in trouble.
What are the changes from the last Lord Ashcroft poll of the constituency?
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I'd vote Tory in Thanet South.0
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Interesting.
- Clegg down 22% in his own constituency with Lab up 12%. Might need to launch a charm offensive on the Hallam Tories to tactically vote for him
- Miliband's score is hardly a ringing endorsement - down 7% on 2010. Must give UKIP hope in the other 2 Doncaster seats, which are better for them
- Farage will be disappointed, although hasn't been the candidate that long. Will need to work the seat hard in the run up to the GE0 -
I'm sold.TGOHF said:
Cambridge Huppert hold is free money and is better than evens. The Labour candidate is atrocious and finished a poor 3rd last time.MarkSenior said:
Pretty much agree , tho I think Yardley , Cambridge and Bermondsey/Southwark and Cardiff Central will be LD holds against Labour .Peter_the_Punter said:I agree with Mike.
The betting story here is that LDs are hanging tough in LD/Con marginals, but less so in LD/Lab marginals. This will make it very difficult for the Tories to win an overall majority.
NOM looks increasingly likely. Even at 1/2, it's probably still the value bet.
To my surprise, I find myself buying LD on the seats spreads.
I am sticking with my 36-40 LD seats after next May .
Cambridge isn't the north of England, and Huppert seems like the sort of MP red liberals will have no problem at all voting for. In addition yes I note the Labour bloke finished behind the Cons last time...
£13 @ 5-4 and £7 @ 11-10 for me.0 -
That means you'd be voting for an ex-Kipper!BenM said:I'd vote Tory in Thanet South.
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When you get to the polling station they don't ask you question 2. Those who are going to vote tactically will already know that so why would they then answer question 1 differently. It's almost as if some of those polled feel they are being asked to give a different answer.0
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Probably not. They have yet to win any seat in their own candidate's merits.TheScreamingEagles said:
Can UKIP ever win a parliamentary seat when their candidate isn't a traitorous pig dog?MarqueeMark said:Surprising about Farage. If he can't get elected, then I suspect many of UKIP's other targets will also fail to fall.
I can certainly envisage Carswell returning to the Conservative fold.
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Well exactly. If his performance hitherto and especially at PMQ is anything to go by I would prefer my PPCs and MPs to have at least some kind of backbone.TheScreamingEagles said:
He can stay where he is.Scrapheap_as_was said:Mike K's 70 MPs being questioned by St Dan
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges·54 secs55 seconds ago London, England
I reckon @DouglasCarswell is the only Kipper with any chance of being an MP after 2015. And at that point he'll defect back.
I don't want him back.
Edit: I got the wrong Kipper MP. My bad and it was a 50:50 call. Still, they can keep them both.0 -
But in the polling station, you're not asked which party, you are presented with a full list of candidate names, so question 2 is perhaps closer to that. (Although I agree that having two questions may encourage people to give different answers to them, exaggerating any effect.)Eastwinger said:When you get to the polling station they don't ask you question 2. Those who are going to vote tactically will already know that so why would they then answer question 1 differently. It's almost as if some of those polled feel they are being asked to give a different answer.
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Possibly.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think he'd have lost had Ms Sandys stood again.JackW said:
Those revelling at the prospect of Farage's demise in Thanet South may still be disappointed.MikeSmithson said:
Well said Jack. Your money is safe.JackW said:One important point to note if I am reading the polls correctly is that whilst the "your constituency" question is polled the candidates names are not. This will have an effect in many of these seats especially Watford.
Would Farage's name helped or hindered UKIP figures in Thanet S?
Constituents like having leaders as their MP and Farage will enjoy even greater prominence during the election and the media will focus heavily on the seat. Ukip will also pour resources into the seat. However a cross current will be tactical voting against him.
On balance I believe Farage is favourite to win the seat.
However with constituency betting it is essential not to hostility toward an individual or party cloud ones judgement of the reality on the ground. Also there's little doubt Farage would add to the gayety of the HoC.
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