Miss Cyclefree, exactly, but they're also intent on causing serious harm to British SMEs as well.
I am, it must be said, greatly relieved that it may not affect me directly (though I am not convinced, yet) but it's still absolutely crackers.
I don't think they care about British SMEs. You have to remember that the Anglo-Saxon model of capitalism (and, yes, I have heard that phrase used by senior French regulators) is generally hated and despised on the Continent, particularly by the sorts of people who make laws like these.
Brent low of the day $71.25, which was $6.50 down on last night's settle.
Gasoil low $640.75, ULSD low 650.75....quite the sell off....
With world production still rising fast while demand is stagnant the result will be that prices will drop until the gap closes by either a production fall or a rise in demand. I expect it will help transportation but it will ruin energy producers. In short, sell BP and buy GM.
I'm not so sure - crude is off $5 a barrel but gasoil is actually up on yesterday, so refining margins must be looking pretty good. Although BP is not the refiner it used to be of course...is Valero publicly quoted? If so, then between refining margins and the dollar that could be a nice punt.
Miss Cyclefree, exactly, but they're also intent on causing serious harm to British SMEs as well.
I am, it must be said, greatly relieved that it may not affect me directly (though I am not convinced, yet) but it's still absolutely crackers.
I don't think they care about British SMEs. You have to remember that the Anglo-Saxon model of capitalism (and, yes, I have heard that phrase used by senior French regulators) is generally hated and despised on the Continent, particularly by the sorts of people who make laws like these.
France in particular looks down on this "nation of shopkeepers". They favour the big state-backed national champion approach to economics. Probably why they're failing.
The interesting thing about the libel judgement is that it seems to reflect something suggested here at the time, which was that the cctv footage shown on Channel 4 did not, despite what was claimed, vindicate Mitchell.
From the BBC account: [The judge] described the MP's behaviour as "childish" and found his version of events was inconsistent with the CCTV recording from that evening.
The interesting thing about the libel judgement is that it seems to reflect something suggested here at the time, which was that the cctv footage shown on Channel 4 did not, despite what was claimed, vindicate Mitchell.
From the BBC account: [The judge] described the MP's behaviour as "childish" and found his version of events was inconsistent with the CCTV recording from that evening.
It is interesting to say the least that this judge can find against Mitchell on the basis of well not very mutch really and aginst the clear evidence (admissions? sackings? and yes the CCTV evidence) that the police lied in order to boost their case.
I know of someone else who has suffered a gross miscarriage of justice and all in all the legal system strikes me as something lower than shocking.
Couldn't find where to contact Amazon on this (surprisingly) but a diagram from HMRC on twitter suggested I should be ok (because I don't sell directly). However, I know there have been some contradictory murmurings from HMRC and elsewhere, so I'm still planning to withdraw (and re-release if it's ok).
Edited extra bit: apologies for banging on about this, but it's infuriating, and even if it doesn't affect me it's still total bullshit.
The government and the EU have some explaining to do, but as usual i'm afraid they will stick their heads in the sand.
Not until UKIP make it into a pre-election poster. I highly recommend UKIP to make giant posters of it, simply to force the government to respond. UKIP may not have many MP's, but at least they are good as a pressure group.
- OECD pointing out Eurozone is facing permanent economic stagnation - UK has to make a gross payment of £34 billion to the EU - EU tax changes causing an avalanche of bureaucracy for small business - Bristol the 30th town facing Muslim grooming gangs raping kids - Theresa May suppressing critical immigration reports - The head of the European Commission in trouble for tax dealings - Net immigration higher than when Labour left office
I'd say UKIP are lucky to benefit from events, but it's not luck when things go your way because you were right.
The trouble is it's like battered wife syndrome. We've already passed the point with the EU where anyone alive 10 years ago would have said 'enough'. But people still put up with it. When things get bad gradually you don’t notice. They'll still be scaremongering about '3 million jobs' when everyone is homeless, and people will still believe it.
If George Kerevan is correct, it appears that the SNP has decided that rather than buddy up with other parties in the Yes Alliance, it is going to try to co-opt the Yes Alliance for itself by seeking out non-party campaigners to work with and freezing out the Greens, the SSP etc.
The Rouble has tanked another 3% in the last few hours. Tough being an Oligarch at the moment, with the price of Learjets and Sunseekers rising so fast.
The Rouble has tanked another 3% in the last few hours. Tough being an Oligarch at the moment, with the price of Learjets and Sunseekers rising so fast.
If you were a sensible Oligarch, you're assets wouldn't all be in Roubles.
Miss Cyclefree, exactly, but they're also intent on causing serious harm to British SMEs as well.
I am, it must be said, greatly relieved that it may not affect me directly (though I am not convinced, yet) but it's still absolutely crackers.
I don't think they care about British SMEs. You have to remember that the Anglo-Saxon model of capitalism (and, yes, I have heard that phrase used by senior French regulators) is generally hated and despised on the Continent, particularly by the sorts of people who make laws like these.
but they do care about the German Mittelstand, it will interestng to watch how things go down in Germany.
The Rouble has tanked another 3% in the last few hours. Tough being an Oligarch at the moment, with the price of Learjets and Sunseekers rising so fast.
If you were a sensible Oligarch, you're assets wouldn't all be in Roubles.
If I was an oligarch, I wouldn't be in Russia at all, physically or fiscally. I'd be living on the Cote d'Azure in a colossal chateau with my supermodel wife. My assets would be spread across the world, or in a vault in Liechtenstein.
Historically, low oil prices have led to higher world economic growth (and vice versa). IIRC it's a pretty strong correlation. We might need to rethink our assumptions about how things will pan out over the next couple of years, since oil prices this low haven't been factored into most forecasts.
Miss Cyclefree, exactly, but they're also intent on causing serious harm to British SMEs as well.
I am, it must be said, greatly relieved that it may not affect me directly (though I am not convinced, yet) but it's still absolutely crackers.
I don't think they care about British SMEs. You have to remember that the Anglo-Saxon model of capitalism (and, yes, I have heard that phrase used by senior French regulators) is generally hated and despised on the Continent, particularly by the sorts of people who make laws like these.
but they do care about the German Mittelstand, it will interestng to watch how things go down in Germany.
Won't those companies be large enough that they have to register for VAT anyway?
Historically, low oil prices have led to higher world economic growth (and vice versa). IIRC it's a pretty strong correlation. We might need to rethink our assumptions about how things will pan out over the next couple of years.
But what if you've committed to decarbonising your economy just as the rest of the world is enjoying cheap fossil fuels? How would that pan out?
Historically, low oil prices have led to higher world economic growth (and vice versa). IIRC it's a pretty strong correlation. We might need to rethink our assumptions about how things will pan out over the next couple of years, since oil prices this low haven't been factored into most forecasts.
Brent low of the day $71.25, which was $6.50 down on last night's settle.
Gasoil low $640.75, ULSD low 650.75....quite the sell off....
With world production still rising fast while demand is stagnant the result will be that prices will drop until the gap closes by either a production fall or a rise in demand. I expect it will help transportation but it will ruin energy producers. In short, sell BP and buy GM.
Is Putin bankrupt yet?
It's not looking good, is it. Their neighbours must be getting a little nervous (well, more nervous). Nothing like a dose of ultra-nationalism to shore up an ailing government (cf. Argentina).
With apologies to Nikita Khrushchev:
"Kaliningrad is the testicle of Russia. Every time I want to make the Russians scream, I squeeze on Kaliningrad!"
Miss Cyclefree, exactly, but they're also intent on causing serious harm to British SMEs as well.
I am, it must be said, greatly relieved that it may not affect me directly (though I am not convinced, yet) but it's still absolutely crackers.
I don't think they care about British SMEs. You have to remember that the Anglo-Saxon model of capitalism (and, yes, I have heard that phrase used by senior French regulators) is generally hated and despised on the Continent, particularly by the sorts of people who make laws like these.
but they do care about the German Mittelstand, it will interestng to watch how things go down in Germany.
Won't those companies be large enough that they have to register for VAT anyway?
The larger ones certainly, but Germany still has quite a large spectrum of companies including some quite small ones under the Mittelstand umbrella. I'd venture Italy is in a similar position with lots of SMEs.
The Rouble has tanked another 3% in the last few hours. Tough being an Oligarch at the moment, with the price of Learjets and Sunseekers rising so fast.
If you were a sensible Oligarch, you're assets wouldn't all be in Roubles.
If I was an oligarch, I wouldn't be in Russia at all, physically or fiscally. I'd be living on the Cote d'Azure in a colossal chateau with my supermodel wife. My assets would be spread across the world, or in a vault in Liechtenstein.
Yes, but you would always be worried about a visit from one of Vlad's boys, especially if he offered you a cup of tea.
Historically, low oil prices have led to higher world economic growth (and vice versa). IIRC it's a pretty strong correlation. We might need to rethink our assumptions about how things will pan out over the next couple of years.
But what if you've committed to decarbonising your economy just as the rest of the world is enjoying cheap fossil fuels? How would that pan out?
Good question, but I was thinking more about the global economy as a whole. In particular, China, and German exports to China ought to be beneficiaries of lower oil prices, and the US to an extent although they already benefit from the shale effect on prices.
Miss Cyclefree, exactly, but they're also intent on causing serious harm to British SMEs as well.
I am, it must be said, greatly relieved that it may not affect me directly (though I am not convinced, yet) but it's still absolutely crackers.
I don't think they care about British SMEs. You have to remember that the Anglo-Saxon model of capitalism (and, yes, I have heard that phrase used by senior French regulators) is generally hated and despised on the Continent, particularly by the sorts of people who make laws like these.
but they do care about the German Mittelstand, it will interestng to watch how things go down in Germany.
Won't those companies be large enough that they have to register for VAT anyway?
The larger ones certainly, but Germany still has quite a large spectrum of companies including some quite small ones under the Mittelstand umbrella. I'd venture Italy is in a similar position with lots of SMEs.
Most of the traditional German "mittlestand" have been so successful they've surpassed the old limits to qualify as mittelstand.
Italy is a corrupt tax avoiding country so won't be affected.
The Rouble has tanked another 3% in the last few hours. Tough being an Oligarch at the moment, with the price of Learjets and Sunseekers rising so fast.
If you were a sensible Oligarch, you're assets wouldn't all be in Roubles.
If I was an oligarch, I wouldn't be in Russia at all, physically or fiscally. I'd be living on the Cote d'Azure in a colossal chateau with my supermodel wife. My assets would be spread across the world, or in a vault in Liechtenstein.
Yes, but you would always be worried about a visit from one of Vlad's boys, especially if he offered you a cup of tea.
I'm not that stupid. I'd still be coughing up protection money. Painful, but infinitely better than being served a polonium sandwich.
The larger ones certainly, but Germany still has quite a large spectrum of companies including some quite small ones under the Mittelstand umbrella. I'd venture Italy is in a similar position with lots of SMEs.
It's not SMEs in general, it's exclusively very small businesses selling internationally by digital download. Not many of those in Italy, I suspect, and not that many in Germany.
Long report by Nick Robinson on BBC1 6pm news re Scotland income tax proposals.
No mention whatsoever that Scotland will get a chunk of English income tax revenues - exactly as I suspected. I wonder if Nick Robinson even realises this?
Probably not - it's far too complicated - far too much to expect anyone to just sit down for a few minutes and properly understand what is happening.
The judge did not 'proclaim Andrew Mitchell a liar', nor did the BBC claim that he did.
Why can't Kippers avoid unfounded accusations of lying? It's weird, some kind of bizarre psychological tick they have.
It's cos the Kippers are a bit thick.
Really low IQs. See my link below.
What IQ do Muslims have? (honest question by the way!)
Don't know but I think I'm in the top percentile.
Think of me as a latter day Alan Turing.
Ah, which brings me neatly to a point I've been itching the post for several weeks for fear of being moderated for life:
Benedict is such a terribly wooden actor, that he should really be called "Lumberbatch"
There - I said it!
Nor is he good looking. Amazing to me that anyone thinks he is.
I read an interview (tube stuck in a tunnel for 30mins, so reduced to Metro!) where he said that his financee couldn't stop laughing when he was awarded the 'sexiest man' title in whatever magazine it was...
30 minutes reading the Metro. I'm impressed. 3 minutes would be more than sufficient!!
Mind you, sex appeal doesn't depend on looks but IMO he has neither.
I spent the first 28 minutes catching up on emails.
The remainder was a toss up between slitting my wrists and reading the Metro.
The British public will have watched on the BBC 6pm News tonight a government unable to control immigration - EU or non-EU - and the conviction of a Somali rape gang, whose exploits have been called 'just the tip of the iceberg'. There is even such a thing as the Bristol Somali Forum.
The larger ones certainly, but Germany still has quite a large spectrum of companies including some quite small ones under the Mittelstand umbrella. I'd venture Italy is in a similar position with lots of SMEs.
It's not SMEs in general, it's exclusively very small businesses selling internationally by digital download. Not many of those in Italy, I suspect, and not that many in Germany.
I wouldn't presume to tell the Germans and Italians how their economy is made up, but their SMEs will be impacted as much as ours, as will Ireland's or Seweden's. The question is really have the other countries prepared for it better than us ?
Looks like Cameron's judgement was right to throw him out of the Cabinet?
What about Mitchell's judgement then ?
Its bad judgement to take anyone to a libel case. It seems to me the judge could say that neither he nor anyone can know the contents of a conversation but I fail to see how he can be absolutely certain that he knows what was said, not least against the background of a proven lie by another alleged witness.
Looks like Cameron's judgement was right to throw him out of the Cabinet?
What about Mitchell's judgement then ?
Its bad judgement to take anyone to a libel case. It seems to me the judge could say that neither he nor anyone can know the contents of a conversation but I fail to see how he can be absolutely certain that he knows what was said, not least against the background of a proven lie by another alleged witness.
My interpretation of the judgement was that the coppers were too moronic to have made it up. Probably why they're referred to as woodentops.
Re the Lord Ashcroft Doncaster North poll , sadly consign to dustbin The weightings are clearly wrong
Voted Conservative 2010 pre weighting 114 after weighting 259 Voted Labour 2010 pre weighting 268 after weighting 185
Despite altering the figures so that Conservatives "won" the seat in 2010 Ed M still has a decent lead now . Someone else can work out what the results would be with correct weighting .
Looks like Cameron's judgement was right to throw him out of the Cabinet?
What about Mitchell's judgement then ?
Its bad judgement to take anyone to a libel case. It seems to me the judge could say that neither he nor anyone can know the contents of a conversation but I fail to see how he can be absolutely certain that he knows what was said, not least against the background of a proven lie by another alleged witness.
My interpretation of the judgement was that the coppers were too moronic to have made it up. Probably why they're referred to as woodentops.
The judge said PC Rowland was "not the sort of man who would have had the wit, imagination or inclination to invent on the spur of the moment an account of what a senior politician had said to him in temper”
An odd statement from the judge imho - when you consider a presumably equally thick colleague was able to manufacture a complete lie that he was present at the scene and witnessed the altercation - and then composed an E-mail which he then sent personally to his local MP.
The judge said PC Rowland was "not the sort of man who would have had the wit, imagination or inclination to invent on the spur of the moment an account of what a senior politician had said to him in temper”
An odd statement from the judge imho - when you consider a presumably equally thick colleague was able to manufacture a complete lie that he was present at the scene and witnessed the altercation - and then composed an E-mail which he then sent personally to his local MP.
@DPJHodges: Still struggling with how someone isn't creative enough to conjure word "pleb" but can conjure a whole street full of shocked by-standers.
Re the Lord Ashcroft Doncaster North poll , sadly consign to dustbin The weightings are clearly wrong
Voted Conservative 2010 pre weighting 114 after weighting 259 Voted Labour 2010 pre weighting 268 after weighting 185
Despite altering the figures so that Conservatives "won" the seat in 2010 Ed M still has a decent lead now . Someone else can work out what the results would be with correct weighting .
Could it be a typo and the weightings are the exactly opposite ? I think even then 259 Labour, 185 Tory doe snot feel right !
Re the Lord Ashcroft Doncaster North poll , sadly consign to dustbin The weightings are clearly wrong
Voted Conservative 2010 pre weighting 114 after weighting 259 Voted Labour 2010 pre weighting 268 after weighting 185
Despite altering the figures so that Conservatives "won" the seat in 2010 Ed M still has a decent lead now . Someone else can work out what the results would be with correct weighting .
Could it be a typo and the weightings are the exactly opposite ? I think even then 259 Labour, 185 Tory doe snot feel right !
The S Thanet poll is also odd, as UKIP have improved in all but one internal (and level in the other) internal table and are down 4 from July
Re the Lord Ashcroft Doncaster North poll , sadly consign to dustbin The weightings are clearly wrong
Voted Conservative 2010 pre weighting 114 after weighting 259 Voted Labour 2010 pre weighting 268 after weighting 185
Despite altering the figures so that Conservatives "won" the seat in 2010 Ed M still has a decent lead now . Someone else can work out what the results would be with correct weighting .
Could it be a typo and the weightings are the exactly opposite ? I think even then 259 Labour, 185 Tory doe snot feel right !
Isn't it more likely that the weighting is for population demographics rather than past vote?
I believe Mori and Opinium weight for demographics rather than past vote. Perhaps Lord Ashcroft does too?
I would just like to say that time and time again, I said whether or not Mitchell's reputation would be vindicated depended entirely on the consolidated defamation actions. I was told time and time again I was being a narrow legalist, failing to see the wood from the trees etc.. It would be immodest to comment further.
Re the Lord Ashcroft Doncaster North poll , sadly consign to dustbin The weightings are clearly wrong
Voted Conservative 2010 pre weighting 114 after weighting 259 Voted Labour 2010 pre weighting 268 after weighting 185
Despite altering the figures so that Conservatives "won" the seat in 2010 Ed M still has a decent lead now . Someone else can work out what the results would be with correct weighting .
Could it be a typo and the weightings are the exactly opposite ? I think even then 259 Labour, 185 Tory doe snot feel right !
It could have started as a typo but looking through all the tables the original "typo" has corrupted all the following tables . There are one or two oddities in some of the other seats but not to this scale . For example Sheffield Hallam 2010 LD votes increased from 349 to 378 on weighting but actual LD votes decreased by 10% on weighting which is counter intuitive .
I would just like to say that time and time again, I said whether or not Mitchell's reputation would be vindicated depended entirely on the consolidated defamation actions. I was told time and time again I was being a narrow legalist, failing to see the wood from the trees etc.. It would be immodest to comment further.
Do you think it would be fair to describe your judgement as perfect?
I would just like to say that time and time again, I said whether or not Mitchell's reputation would be vindicated depended entirely on the consolidated defamation actions. I was told time and time again I was being a narrow legalist, failing to see the wood from the trees etc.. It would be immodest to comment further.
Many will see this as a failure of justice and that Mitchell was probably telling the truth (while understanding that he could on occasion be an arrogant little s&&t); others will see it as proof if proof be needed of Mitchell's intemperate arrogance.
I don't think very many people at all will have changed their minds about Mitchell's character as a result of this court case.
Meanwhile we have coppers banged up, suspended and on final warnings, all of which is much more drop-on-your-footable than the decision here.
"No mention whatsoever that Scotland will get a chunk of English income tax revenues - exactly as I suspected. I wonder if Nick Robinson even realises this?"
So theoretically, Ed McMiliband could become PM, use his Scottish MPs to increase English income tax rates to 80% and splurge the money on Scotland - who could then reduce their own income tax rates to zero.
Amusingly backhanded compliment from the Plebgate judge - the police officer must be telling the truth because he "doesn't have the wits or imagination" to do otherwise.
I hope we don't get this interminably dull story clogging up the headlines for months on end AGAIN.
"No mention whatsoever that Scotland will get a chunk of English income tax revenues - exactly as I suspected. I wonder if Nick Robinson even realises this?"
So theoretically, Ed McMiliband could become PM, use his Scottish MPs to increase English income tax rates to 80% and splurge the money on Scotland - who could then reduce their own income tax rates to zero.
Historically, low oil prices have led to higher world economic growth (and vice versa). IIRC it's a pretty strong correlation. We might need to rethink our assumptions about how things will pan out over the next couple of years, since oil prices this low haven't been factored into most forecasts.
I would think it much more likely that it will lead to deflation. Our problem is being competitive in todays world. The oil price will only effect that marginally. We have higher wages, taxes and benifits than other producers.
If the slide continues for long things could get quite nasty.
Brent low of the day $71.25, which was $6.50 down on last night's settle.
Gasoil low $640.75, ULSD low 650.75....quite the sell off....
With world production still rising fast while demand is stagnant the result will be that prices will drop until the gap closes by either a production fall or a rise in demand. I expect it will help transportation but it will ruin energy producers. In short, sell BP and buy GM.
Is Putin bankrupt yet?
As long as the Rouble drops by more that the oil price he'll be fine, as he'll get more Roubles per barrel.
It's said that in the French Fifth Republic every President has been worse than the last, the mind boggles at the prospect of a specimen inferior to Hollande.
Amusingly backhanded compliment from the Plebgate judge - the police officer must be telling the truth because he "doesn't have the wits or imagination" to do otherwise.
I hope we don't get this interminably dull story clogging up the headlines for months on end AGAIN.
@isam I've got an answer for South Thanet, it's the adjustment for likelihood to vote and the reallocation of d/k based on what they voted in 2010. Simply the sample this time had UKIP voters less certain to vote and were reallocated back to their 2010 vote.
Five officers were sacked for gross misconduct and one was sentenced to a year in jail for misconduct in a public office.
Those facts don't say much for their integrity, frankly.
There were several points which have been obvious for a very long time: (1) The fact of officers' subsequent plain misconduct did not necessarily mean that Rowland was lying. It was entirely unsafe, without detailed examination of the evidence, to infer the latter from the former. (2) Mitchell instituted an action for defamation notwithstanding the proven misconduct of those officers, presumably to permit detailed examination of the evidence. (3) There was a plainly triable case. (4) You cannot bring an action for defamation for the purposes of vindicating your reputation, lose and emerge with your reputation intact.
I have some sympathy for Mitchell, but the inference which should have been drawn from (1)-(4) was obvious.
Re the Lord Ashcroft Doncaster North poll , sadly consign to dustbin The weightings are clearly wrong
Voted Conservative 2010 pre weighting 114 after weighting 259 Voted Labour 2010 pre weighting 268 after weighting 185
Despite altering the figures so that Conservatives "won" the seat in 2010 Ed M still has a decent lead now . Someone else can work out what the results would be with correct weighting .
Could it be a typo and the weightings are the exactly opposite ? I think even then 259 Labour, 185 Tory doe snot feel right !
Isn't it more likely that the weighting is for population demographics rather than past vote?
I believe Mori and Opinium weight for demographics rather than past vote. Perhaps Lord Ashcroft does too?
In constituency polls, Survation don't weight for past vote either.
"Data can be weighted by multiple variables to match the profile of the target population. For typical national polls we weight by age, sex, region, household income, education and, for national political polls, vote in the 2010 general election, or vote in the 2011 Scottish Parliament election (constituency) for Scotland-only polling.
For constituency telephone polls, we typically weight by age, gender and electoral ward, but do not use past vote weighting"
Brent low of the day $71.25, which was $6.50 down on last night's settle.
Gasoil low $640.75, ULSD low 650.75....quite the sell off....
With world production still rising fast while demand is stagnant the result will be that prices will drop until the gap closes by either a production fall or a rise in demand. I expect it will help transportation but it will ruin energy producers. In short, sell BP and buy GM.
Is Putin bankrupt yet?
As long as the Rouble drops by more that the oil price he'll be fine, as he'll get more Roubles per barrel.
Except a weaker Roubel will mean less can be purchased from abroad, and fewer investors will be willing to buy Russian debt.
Re the Lord Ashcroft Doncaster North poll , sadly consign to dustbin The weightings are clearly wrong
Voted Conservative 2010 pre weighting 114 after weighting 259 Voted Labour 2010 pre weighting 268 after weighting 185
Despite altering the figures so that Conservatives "won" the seat in 2010 Ed M still has a decent lead now . Someone else can work out what the results would be with correct weighting .
Could it be a typo and the weightings are the exactly opposite ? I think even then 259 Labour, 185 Tory doe snot feel right !
Isn't it more likely that the weighting is for population demographics rather than past vote?
I believe Mori and Opinium weight for demographics rather than past vote. Perhaps Lord Ashcroft does too?
In constituency polls, Survation don't weight for past vote either.
"Data can be weighted by multiple variables to match the profile of the target population. For typical national polls we weight by age, sex, region, household income, education and, for national political polls, vote in the 2010 general election, or vote in the 2011 Scottish Parliament election (constituency) for Scotland-only polling.
For constituency telephone polls, we typically weight by age, gender and electoral ward, but do not use past vote weighting"
Whether the weightings are for demographics , past vote or a combination of both , it is clearly ludicrous to weight a sample in Doncaster North which had the Conservatives winning the seat in 2010
Brent low of the day $71.25, which was $6.50 down on last night's settle.
Gasoil low $640.75, ULSD low 650.75....quite the sell off....
With world production still rising fast while demand is stagnant the result will be that prices will drop until the gap closes by either a production fall or a rise in demand. I expect it will help transportation but it will ruin energy producers. In short, sell BP and buy GM.
Is Putin bankrupt yet?
As long as the Rouble drops by more that the oil price he'll be fine, as he'll get more Roubles per barrel.
Except a weaker Roubel will mean less can be purchased from abroad, and fewer investors will be willing to buy Russian debt.
The rouble has declined by about 40% over the past 12 months. That is surely destabilising for the economy as a whole?
Five officers were sacked for gross misconduct and one was sentenced to a year in jail for misconduct in a public office.
Those facts don't say much for their integrity, frankly.
There were several points which have been obvious for a very long time: (1) The fact of officers' subsequent plain misconduct did not necessarily mean that Rowland was lying. It was entirely unsafe, without detailed examination of the evidence, to infer the latter from the former. (2) Mitchell instituted an action for defamation notwithstanding the proven misconduct of those officers, presumably to permit detailed examination of the evidence. (3) There was a plainly triable case. (4) You cannot bring an action for defamation for the purposes of vindicating your reputation, lose and emerge with your reputation intact.
I have some sympathy for Mitchell, but the inference which should have been drawn from (1)-(4) was obvious.
Agree. Once those officers were disciplined he should simply have shut up. The story had moved onto them. Now it has turned back on him. He was either badly advised or chose not to listen to advice.
Brent low of the day $71.25, which was $6.50 down on last night's settle.
Gasoil low $640.75, ULSD low 650.75....quite the sell off....
With world production still rising fast while demand is stagnant the result will be that prices will drop until the gap closes by either a production fall or a rise in demand. I expect it will help transportation but it will ruin energy producers. In short, sell BP and buy GM.
Is Putin bankrupt yet?
As long as the Rouble drops by more that the oil price he'll be fine, as he'll get more Roubles per barrel.
Except a weaker Roubel will mean less can be purchased from abroad, and fewer investors will be willing to buy Russian debt.
The rouble has declined by about 40% over the past 12 months. That is surely destabilising for the economy as a whole?
Not just the economy, but society. Lavrov has started complaining about the Americans being behind a potential colour revolution in the country. They're clearly rattled and are trying to take pre-emptive steps to blame evil America.
KentOnline @Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8
If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
It's an easy mistake to make, TSE.
I've often trotted round for a quick confession only to find myself kneeling before a puzzled-looking Imam.
I'd like to see a poll asking people to identify what type of religious building Westminster cathedral is from just a picture. I know the building as I lived near there, but it does look more like a mosque than a cathedral.
I used to work opposite, Socco. It's one of London's hidden treasures.
Nevertheless I think anybody who mistakes it for a mosque needs a trip to Specsavers. The absence of a separate entrance for Ladies is a bit of a giveaway.
I'm not sure you can easily tell the entrance labels from the backshot of a news report. The reality is that, unlike most British cathedrals, it's built in the Byzantine style, and Islamic architecture followed the Byzantine style from the Dome of the Rock onwards.
OK, Socco, point taken.
I can in fact see the similarities. I still think the culprit deserves his or her place in the Twitter For Dummies class, next to Ms Thornbury.
For God's sake, it's got a huge picture of Jesus over the front door. If that's not a clue that it's not a mosque, I don't know what is.
I used to live next door to it too.
Jesus is mentioned in the Quran.
OT: where in Italy did your Italian parent come from?
He's not portrayed on the outsides of mosques, though.
Napoli - the city. I say that only because lots of people use Naples to mean anywhere in the Campania region, I find.
Funny, my father comes from Sorrento. I remember those number plates preceded with 'NA'. Other end of the Circumvesuviana, though.
KentOnline @Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8
If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
It's an easy mistake to make, TSE.
I've often trotted round for a quick confession only to find myself kneeling before a puzzled-looking Imam.
I'd like to see a poll asking people to identify what type of religious building Westminster cathedral is from just a picture. I know the building as I lived near there, but it does look more like a mosque than a cathedral.
I used to work opposite, Socco. It's one of London's hidden treasures.
Nevertheless I think anybody who mistakes it for a mosque needs a trip to Specsavers. The absence of a separate entrance for Ladies is a bit of a giveaway.
I'm not sure you can easily tell the entrance labels from the backshot of a news report. The reality is that, unlike most British cathedrals, it's built in the Byzantine style, and Islamic architecture followed the Byzantine style from the Dome of the Rock onwards.
OK, Socco, point taken.
I can in fact see the similarities. I still think the culprit deserves his or her place in the Twitter For Dummies class, next to Ms Thornbury.
For God's sake, it's got a huge picture of Jesus over the front door. If that's not a clue that it's not a mosque, I don't know what is.
I used to live next door to it too.
Jesus is mentioned in the Quran.
OT: where in Italy did your Italian parent come from?
He's not portrayed on the outsides of mosques, though.
Napoli - the city. I say that only because lots of people use Naples to mean anywhere in the Campania region, I find.
Funny, my father comes from Sorrento. I remember those number plates preceded with 'NA'. Other end of the Circumvesuviana, though.
Is that the world's coolest commuter railway? It does mean you can visit Pompeii and Herculaneum without having to take your life in your hands driving in the Neapolitan traffic.
What are all the locals going to do when Vesuvius goes off? It will, and the longer the gap the bigger the bang.
Re the Lord Ashcroft Doncaster North poll , sadly consign to dustbin The weightings are clearly wrong
Voted Conservative 2010 pre weighting 114 after weighting 259 Voted Labour 2010 pre weighting 268 after weighting 185
Despite altering the figures so that Conservatives "won" the seat in 2010 Ed M still has a decent lead now . Someone else can work out what the results would be with correct weighting .
Could it be a typo and the weightings are the exactly opposite ? I think even then 259 Labour, 185 Tory doe snot feel right !
Isn't it more likely that the weighting is for population demographics rather than past vote?
I believe Mori and Opinium weight for demographics rather than past vote. Perhaps Lord Ashcroft does too?
In constituency polls, Survation don't weight for past vote either.
"Data can be weighted by multiple variables to match the profile of the target population. For typical national polls we weight by age, sex, region, household income, education and, for national political polls, vote in the 2010 general election, or vote in the 2011 Scottish Parliament election (constituency) for Scotland-only polling.
For constituency telephone polls, we typically weight by age, gender and electoral ward, but do not use past vote weighting"
Whether the weightings are for demographics , past vote or a combination of both , it is clearly ludicrous to weight a sample in Doncaster North which had the Conservatives winning the seat in 2010
The judge did not 'proclaim Andrew Mitchell a liar', nor did the BBC claim that he did.
Why can't Kippers avoid unfounded accusations of lying? It's weird, some kind of bizarre psychological tick they have.
It's cos the Kippers are a bit thick.
Really low IQs. See my link below.
Pathetic post,I thought you were bigger than this.
Why would you think that?
I have respect for mr eagles after a certain poster on here tried to say I was a member of the BNP and he was the first on here to back me up,he no need to do it,but he did.
Just a example of mr eagles good judgement,but when it come's to ukip,something come's over him ;-)
Comments
It is interesting to say the least that this judge can find against Mitchell on the basis of well not very mutch really and aginst the clear evidence (admissions? sackings? and yes the CCTV evidence) that the police lied in order to boost their case.
I know of someone else who has suffered a gross miscarriage of justice and all in all the legal system strikes me as something lower than shocking.
They'll still be scaremongering about '3 million jobs' when everyone is homeless, and people will still believe it.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/george-kerevan-don-t-let-yes-alliance-dream-die-1-3615943
If George Kerevan is correct, it appears that the SNP has decided that rather than buddy up with other parties in the Yes Alliance, it is going to try to co-opt the Yes Alliance for itself by seeking out non-party campaigners to work with and freezing out the Greens, the SSP etc.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-27/opec-policy-ensures-u-s-shale-crash-russian-oil-tycoon-says.html
"Kaliningrad is the testicle of Russia. Every time I want to make the Russians scream, I squeeze on Kaliningrad!"
Shale in the US is less than $3 per MMBTU. Oil would have to drop a lot more before it competes with that on a landed cost basis.
Italy is a corrupt tax avoiding country so won't be affected.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/30238076
No mention whatsoever that Scotland will get a chunk of English income tax revenues - exactly as I suspected. I wonder if Nick Robinson even realises this?
Probably not - it's far too complicated - far too much to expect anyone to just sit down for a few minutes and properly understand what is happening.
(I'll get my coat)
The weightings are clearly wrong
Voted Conservative 2010 pre weighting 114 after weighting 259
Voted Labour 2010 pre weighting 268 after weighting 185
Despite altering the figures so that Conservatives "won" the seat in 2010 Ed M still has a decent lead now . Someone else can work out what the results would be with correct weighting .
An odd statement from the judge imho - when you consider a presumably equally thick colleague was able to manufacture a complete lie that he was present at the scene and witnessed the altercation - and then composed an E-mail which he then sent personally to his local MP.
Knowing PBTories, they probably can't recall now who wrote what !
french unemployment hits an all time high
http://www.lefigaro.fr/emploi/2014/11/27/09005-20141127ARTFIG00317-nouveau-record-de-chomeurs-en-france-a-fin-octobre.php
Why?
I believe Mori and Opinium weight for demographics rather than past vote. Perhaps Lord Ashcroft does too?
There are one or two oddities in some of the other seats but not to this scale . For example
Sheffield Hallam 2010 LD votes increased from 349 to 378 on weighting but actual LD votes decreased by 10% on weighting which is counter intuitive .
Cruddas slams the the modern political system in Britain.
I don't think very many people at all will have changed their minds about Mitchell's character as a result of this court case.
Meanwhile we have coppers banged up, suspended and on final warnings, all of which is much more drop-on-your-footable than the decision here.
"No mention whatsoever that Scotland will get a chunk of English income tax revenues - exactly as I suspected. I wonder if Nick Robinson even realises this?"
So theoretically, Ed McMiliband could become PM, use his Scottish MPs to increase English income tax rates to 80% and splurge the money on Scotland - who could then reduce their own income tax rates to zero.
Now that would really be a "knavish trick".
I hope we don't get this interminably dull story clogging up the headlines for months on end AGAIN.
If the slide continues for long things could get quite nasty.
Those facts don't say much for their integrity, frankly.
I've got an answer for South Thanet, it's the adjustment for likelihood to vote and the reallocation of d/k based on what they voted in 2010. Simply the sample this time had UKIP voters less certain to vote and were reallocated back to their 2010 vote.
Weird team news means you can back whole spurs XI at bigger price than Spurs to score the 1st goal
(1) The fact of officers' subsequent plain misconduct did not necessarily mean that Rowland was lying. It was entirely unsafe, without detailed examination of the evidence, to infer the latter from the former.
(2) Mitchell instituted an action for defamation notwithstanding the proven misconduct of those officers, presumably to permit detailed examination of the evidence.
(3) There was a plainly triable case.
(4) You cannot bring an action for defamation for the purposes of vindicating your reputation, lose and emerge with your reputation intact.
I have some sympathy for Mitchell, but the inference which should have been drawn from (1)-(4) was obvious.
"Data can be weighted by multiple variables to match the profile of the target population. For typical national polls we weight by age, sex, region, household income, education and, for national political polls, vote in the 2010 general election, or vote in the 2011 Scottish Parliament election (constituency) for Scotland-only polling.
For constituency telephone polls, we typically weight by age, gender and electoral ward, but do not use past vote weighting"
http://survation.com/methodology/
What are all the locals going to do when Vesuvius goes off? It will, and the longer the gap the bigger the bang.
Just a example of mr eagles good judgement,but when it come's to ukip,something come's over him ;-)