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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage in trouble in Thanet S while Clegg could be struggli

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  • My '10 or fewer' LD prediction is looking a bit dicey....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    BenM said:

    I'd vote Tory in Thanet South.

    That means you'd be voting for an ex-Kipper!
    Do you honestly think the average voter will pay attention to that level of detail ?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    When you get to the polling station they don't ask you question 2. Those who are going to vote tactically will already know that so why would they then answer question 1 differently. It's almost as if some of those polled feel they are being asked to give a different answer.

    Most people have little day to day interest in politics and Q1 records their first thoughts/impressions and VI . Q2 makes them think a little bit more and IMO gives a better indication of how they will actually vote in the polling station .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    When you get to the polling station they don't ask you question 2. Those who are going to vote tactically will already know that so why would they then answer question 1 differently. It's almost as if some of those polled feel they are being asked to give a different answer.

    Most people have little day to day interest in politics and Q1 records their first thoughts/impressions and VI . Q2 makes them think a little bit more and IMO gives a better indication of how they will actually vote in the polling station .
    Question 2 is what should be possible with a decent ground game.

    And the Lib Dems have ground game.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    BenM said:

    I'd vote Tory in Thanet South.

    I'd vote Labour in Doncaster North !
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    edited November 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Appalling numbers for the Tories in Carshalton & Wallington:

    LD 43% (-5)
    Con 23% (-14)
    UKIP 17% (+14)
    Lab 12% (+3)

    Indeed. The Tories go from being 11 points behind to 20 points behind, so they still lose; but thanks to UKIP, that seat's now nailed on for the LDs.

    If they supported the Tory instead they'd be in with a shout of electing a pro-referendum MP. But of course UKIP oppose a referendum and are campaigning against one.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    edited November 2014
    I said a while back the Lib Dems are like an STD and even harder to get rid off
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    I said a while back the Lib Dems are like an STD and even harder to get rid off

    So long as they are gone in Solihull ^_~
  • When you get to the polling station they don't ask you question 2. Those who are going to vote tactically will already know that so why would they then answer question 1 differently. It's almost as if some of those polled feel they are being asked to give a different answer.

    Most people have little day to day interest in politics and Q1 records their first thoughts/impressions and VI . Q2 makes them think a little bit more and IMO gives a better indication of how they will actually vote in the polling station .
    Its certainly understandable where Labour supporters would vote tactically in a Lib Dem seat to keep out the Tories. However for first preference Tories why would they vote Lib Dem to defeat their own first choice? Makes no sense to me. People might by stupid and have little grasp of the situation in their own seat but the aren't that stupid.

  • Pulpstar said:

    BenM said:

    I'd vote Tory in Thanet South.

    That means you'd be voting for an ex-Kipper!
    Do you honestly think the average voter will pay attention to that level of detail ?
    South Thanet will receive huge coverage during the campaign so I think even some of the more bovine voters might notice.

    I don't expect it to make a lot of difference but in a close run thing it could be crucial. Sandys would certainly have been the better candidate.

    Young Jack W's point is however probably more significant. The Party Leader generally gets a local boost. It should carry Farage over the line.
  • TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    isam said:

    UKIP in the lead in Thanet South until weighting by 2010 vote is applied

    Farage wasn't the candidate then, and UKIP got 3% of the vote Nationally in 2010. If you think that is of no significance/that he might be a drag on the UKIP vote rather than a boost for it then I guess you could back the Tories

    Exactly the same weighting adjustment was made in Lord A's Rochester poll and still it overstated UKIP by 5%.

    Dream on. You are in trouble.

    On what basis is a 14 point swing towards you "in trouble"? If Farage wins South Thanet it will be a huge achievement. I think he'll do it, but no-one has ever pretended it's anything but a huge uphill struggle.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I said a while back the Lib Dems are like an STD and even harder to get rid off

    So long as they are gone in Solihull ^_~
    I still think it will be a Lib Dem hold. Look how well they are doing nearby in Yardley
  • TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    It's an easy mistake to make, TSE.

    I've often trotted round for a quick confession only to find myself kneeling before a puzzled-looking Imam.
  • JackW said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    One important point to note if I am reading the polls correctly is that whilst the "your constituency" question is polled the candidates names are not. This will have an effect in many of these seats especially Watford.

    Well said Jack. Your money is safe.

    Would Farage's name helped or hindered UKIP figures in Thanet S?

    Those revelling at the prospect of Farage's demise in Thanet South may still be disappointed.

    Constituents like having leaders as their MP and Farage will enjoy even greater prominence during the election and the media will focus heavily on the seat. Ukip will also pour resources into the seat. However a cross current will be tactical voting against him.

    On balance I believe Farage is favourite to win the seat.

    I think he'd have lost had Ms Sandys stood again.
    Possibly.

    However with constituency betting it is essential not to hostility toward an individual or party cloud ones judgement of the reality on the ground. Also there's little doubt Farage would add to the gayety of the HoC.

    Well I hope the current activity pushes out the UKIP price and I'll be on it
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2014
    Strange that in UKIP VI increased in every table in Lord Ashcrofts November poll compared to his July poll, but the headline figure is down
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    Keep insulting the people you need to win back for a majority. It's pretty clear the Tories are the thick ones if that's their strategy.
  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    I still suspect Clegg will survive, though his polling is more precarious than I would've predicted.
  • TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    It's an easy mistake to make, TSE.

    I've often trotted round for a quick confession only to find myself kneeling before a puzzled-looking Imam.
    I had a similar issue in a Catholic Church confessional box.

    The Priest was horrified when I asked him "have you got any bog roll in your stall, there's none in mine"
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Peter the Punter says ... ''The betting story here is that LDs are hanging tough in LD/Con marginals, but less so in LD/Lab marginals. This will make it very difficult for the Tories to win an overall majority.''

    What is the position/ strength/ leaning of the LD vote in Lab/Tory marginals ??

    As a matter of interest, given a fixed term... how long will the general election campaign be?
  • Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    Keep insulting the people you need to win back for a majority. It's pretty clear the Tories are the thick ones if that's their strategy.
    Considering the insults you Kippers throw around without foundation....
  • BenM said:

    I'd vote Tory in Thanet South.

    I'd vote Labour in Doncaster North !
    Interesting! It'd be more damaging to Labour to have him as PM than see him have a Portillo moment? In the long run (2020 GE) I suppose that is very true.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Good news, since Ashcroft has a thing of polling LD seats we have now got polls in 37 out of 57 LD seats, all but 6 LD seats in E&W have now been polled and the result is (if they keep those extra 6 seats) LD are ahead in 26 seats in E&W, looks like the end result for the LD could be under 30 seats depending on scotland.
  • I said a while back the Lib Dems are like an STD and even harder to get rid off

    And how would a good Muslim boy know about such things prey tell..! ; 0
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    It's an easy mistake to make, TSE.

    I've often trotted round for a quick confession only to find myself kneeling before a puzzled-looking Imam.
    I'd like to see a poll asking people to identify what type of religious building Westminster cathedral is from just a picture. I know the building as I lived near there, but it does look more like a mosque than a cathedral.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    So, just a 2% average LD-Con swing in the sampled LD seats, as opposed to around 5.5% indicated by national opinion polls.

    If these are representative, the Tories could expect 7 gains, before we factor in any LD recovery between now and May.

    Looks like in seats where they have no chance the LD vote vaporizes to UKIP. But where they are the incumbents, UKIP damages the challengers more...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    Pulpstar said:

    I said a while back the Lib Dems are like an STD and even harder to get rid off

    So long as they are gone in Solihull ^_~
    I still think it will be a Lib Dem hold. Look how well they are doing nearby in Yardley
    Sheffield Central and Hallam share a border too.
  • Lord A did poll Sheffield Hallam in 2010.

    Clegg's lead has widened.
  • Looking at some of these seats in detail:

    Colchester looks interesting - LDs taking a big hit even on the 2nd question but being saved by the Cons also taking a hit. Potential to be a 3 or 4 way marginal when Bob Russell stands down (on the 1st q it was C30, L20, LD 20 UKIP 20)
    LDs down to 3rd in Burnley behind UKIP
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited November 2014

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    Keep insulting the people you need to win back for a majority. It's pretty clear the Tories are the thick ones if that's their strategy.
    Considering the insults you Kippers throw around without foundation....
    You spend more time insulting Kippers than any Kipper poster on here does insulting Tories. And then you're surprised when other posters don't defend you.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited November 2014
    Does anyone know if the likely unflushable yellow peril MPs tend more to Orange Book or lefty?
  • I said a while back the Lib Dems are like an STD and even harder to get rid off

    And how would a good Muslim boy know about such things prey tell..! ; 0
    I'm a very good Muslim boy if you ignore the constant whoring and drinking of my youth.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016
    Speedy said:

    Good news, since Ashcroft has a thing of polling LD seats we have now got polls in 37 out of 57 LD seats, all but 6 LD seats in E&W have now been polled and the result is (if they keep those extra 6 seats) LD are ahead in 26 seats in E&W, looks like the end result for the LD could be under 30 seats depending on scotland.

    3, possibly 4 in Scotland so that would be pretty much bang on.

    I keep thinking it must get better for the Lib Dems but now they are falling behind the Greens on a fairly regular basis. It is very hard to reconcile these kind of scores with polling at the 5% level.

    The US have the concept of a wave election where everything goes regardless of local strength. IMO the Lib Dems either double their current polling or it really is wipe out time, however popular the individuals are.
  • Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    Keep insulting the people you need to win back for a majority. It's pretty clear the Tories are the thick ones if that's their strategy.
    Considering the insults you Kippers throw around without foundation....
    You spend more time insulting Kippers than any Kipper poster on here does insulting Tories. And then you're surprised when other posters don't defend you.
    Pointing out the facts isn't an insult.

    Stick to blaming Theresa May for prison escapes
  • Patrick said:

    Does anyone know if the likely unflushable yellow peril MPs tend more to Orange Book or lefty?

    I tried to work that out a while back then realised it was pointless as technically Vince Cable is a yellow Booker.
  • RodCrosby said:

    So, just a 2% average LD-Con swing in the sampled LD seats, as opposed to around 5.5% indicated by national opinion polls.

    If these are representative, the Tories could expect 7 gains, before we factor in any LD recovery between now and May.

    Looks like in seats where they have no chance the LD vote vaporizes to UKIP. But where they are the incumbents, UKIP damages the challengers more...

    Thanks Rod for that cool calm synopsis.

    Punters here are sure to take note of it.
  • TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    It's an easy mistake to make, TSE.

    I've often trotted round for a quick confession only to find myself kneeling before a puzzled-looking Imam.
    A good rule of thumb is that, if they serve wine, it's not a mosque.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    DavidL said:

    Speedy said:

    Good news, since Ashcroft has a thing of polling LD seats we have now got polls in 37 out of 57 LD seats, all but 6 LD seats in E&W have now been polled and the result is (if they keep those extra 6 seats) LD are ahead in 26 seats in E&W, looks like the end result for the LD could be under 30 seats depending on scotland.

    3, possibly 4 in Scotland so that would be pretty much bang on.

    I keep thinking it must get better for the Lib Dems but now they are falling behind the Greens on a fairly regular basis. It is very hard to reconcile these kind of scores with polling at the 5% level.

    The US have the concept of a wave election where everything goes regardless of local strength. IMO the Lib Dems either double their current polling or it really is wipe out time, however popular the individuals are.
    The 6 seats are

    Westmoreland & Lonsdale
    Norfolk North
    Bath

    and 3 others ?

    All should be (Very) easy LD holds.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited November 2014

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    Keep insulting the people you need to win back for a majority. It's pretty clear the Tories are the thick ones if that's their strategy.
    Considering the insults you Kippers throw around without foundation....
    You spend more time insulting Kippers than any Kipper poster on here does insulting Tories. And then you're surprised when other posters don't defend you.
    Pointing out the facts isn't an insult.

    Stick to blaming Theresa May for prison escapes
    The "fact" that the vast majority of UKIP supporters are thick and obsessed with Muslims? Apparently you're too thick to be able to know what a fact is.

    And Theresa May is so thick, she pledges to reduce immigration by 60% and ends up increasing it.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Muslim/drinking/whoring/youth

    Surprised that got through the spam trap
  • Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    It's an easy mistake to make, TSE.

    I've often trotted round for a quick confession only to find myself kneeling before a puzzled-looking Imam.
    I'd like to see a poll asking people to identify what type of religious building Westminster cathedral is from just a picture. I know the building as I lived near there, but it does look more like a mosque than a cathedral.
    I used to work opposite, Socco. It's one of London's hidden treasures.

    Nevertheless I think anybody who mistakes it for a mosque needs a trip to Specsavers. The absence of a separate entrance for Ladies is a bit of a giveaway.
  • DavidL said:

    Speedy said:

    Good news, since Ashcroft has a thing of polling LD seats we have now got polls in 37 out of 57 LD seats, all but 6 LD seats in E&W have now been polled and the result is (if they keep those extra 6 seats) LD are ahead in 26 seats in E&W, looks like the end result for the LD could be under 30 seats depending on scotland.

    3, possibly 4 in Scotland so that would be pretty much bang on.

    I keep thinking it must get better for the Lib Dems but now they are falling behind the Greens on a fairly regular basis. It is very hard to reconcile these kind of scores with polling at the 5% level.

    The US have the concept of a wave election where everything goes regardless of local strength. IMO the Lib Dems either double their current polling or it really is wipe out time, however popular the individuals are.
    Isn't that the opposite of what Lord Ashcroft's poll shows?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited November 2014

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    It's an easy mistake to make, TSE.

    I've often trotted round for a quick confession only to find myself kneeling before a puzzled-looking Imam.
    I'd like to see a poll asking people to identify what type of religious building Westminster cathedral is from just a picture. I know the building as I lived near there, but it does look more like a mosque than a cathedral.
    I used to work opposite, Socco. It's one of London's hidden treasures.

    Nevertheless I think anybody who mistakes it for a mosque needs a trip to Specsavers. The absence of a separate entrance for Ladies is a bit of a giveaway.
    I'm not sure you can easily tell the entrance labels from the backshot of a news report. The reality is that, unlike most British cathedrals, it's built in the Byzantine style, and Islamic architecture followed the Byzantine style from the Dome of the Rock onwards.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    edited November 2014
    Socrates said:

    isam said:

    UKIP in the lead in Thanet South until weighting by 2010 vote is applied

    Farage wasn't the candidate then, and UKIP got 3% of the vote Nationally in 2010. If you think that is of no significance/that he might be a drag on the UKIP vote rather than a boost for it then I guess you could back the Tories

    Exactly the same weighting adjustment was made in Lord A's Rochester poll and still it overstated UKIP by 5%.

    Dream on. You are in trouble.

    On what basis is a 14 point swing towards you "in trouble"? If Farage wins South Thanet it will be a huge achievement. I think he'll do it, but no-one has ever pretended it's anything but a huge uphill struggle.
    There are kippers all over the web announcing they're going to win 40 seats in 2015 so I suggest that actually rather a lot of have people have pretended it's anything but a huge uphill struggle.

    I am reminded of Napoleon's snark at his marshals on the morning of Waterloo: "Because you have all been beaten by Wellington, you consider him a great general. Well I am telling you he is a bad general, the English are a bad army, and the whole affair will be like eating breakfast."

    As Farage has demonstrated 5 times already, winning Westminster seats is much harder than eating breakfast.

    Farage's presumed leader bonus didn't play out in Buckingham in 2010.
  • TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    It's an easy mistake to make, TSE.

    I've often trotted round for a quick confession only to find myself kneeling before a puzzled-looking Imam.
    A good rule of thumb is that, if they serve wine, it's not a mosque.
    And the dodgy looks I get when I forget to change out of my frock. :-(

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341
    Off topic but interesting for his views on GE2015 and Scotland - and Alex Massie, of all people, saying 'just as disturbingly, David Cameron [ie the Tories] might win a second term'!

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9383482/the-national-shows-just-how-much-danger-the-union-and-scotland-is-still-in/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Oh lawd, looking bad for my oil price bet.

    Deflation beckons I think.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    DavidL said:

    Speedy said:

    Good news, since Ashcroft has a thing of polling LD seats we have now got polls in 37 out of 57 LD seats, all but 6 LD seats in E&W have now been polled and the result is (if they keep those extra 6 seats) LD are ahead in 26 seats in E&W, looks like the end result for the LD could be under 30 seats depending on scotland.

    3, possibly 4 in Scotland so that would be pretty much bang on.

    I keep thinking it must get better for the Lib Dems but now they are falling behind the Greens on a fairly regular basis. It is very hard to reconcile these kind of scores with polling at the 5% level.

    The US have the concept of a wave election where everything goes regardless of local strength. IMO the Lib Dems either double their current polling or it really is wipe out time, however popular the individuals are.
    I think 2 LD seats in scotland is the baseline.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Socrates said:

    isam said:

    UKIP in the lead in Thanet South until weighting by 2010 vote is applied

    Farage wasn't the candidate then, and UKIP got 3% of the vote Nationally in 2010. If you think that is of no significance/that he might be a drag on the UKIP vote rather than a boost for it then I guess you could back the Tories

    Exactly the same weighting adjustment was made in Lord A's Rochester poll and still it overstated UKIP by 5%.

    Dream on. You are in trouble.

    On what basis is a 14 point swing towards you "in trouble"? If Farage wins South Thanet it will be a huge achievement. I think he'll do it, but no-one has ever pretended it's anything but a huge uphill struggle.
    There are kippers all over the web announcing they're going to win 40 seats in 2015 so I suggest that actually rather a lot of have people have pretended it's anything but a huge uphill struggle.

    I am reminded of Napoleon's snark at his marshals on the morning of Waterloo: "Because you have all been beaten by Wellington, you consider him a great general. Well I am telling you he is a bad general, the English are a bad army, and the whole affair will be like eating breakfast."

    As Farage has demonstrated 5 times already, winning Westminster seats is much harder than eating breakfast.

    Farage's presumed leader bonus didn't play out in Buckingham in 2010.
    "Farage's presumed leader bonus didn't play out in Buckingham in 2010"

    Ha!
  • Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    Keep insulting the people you need to win back for a majority. It's pretty clear the Tories are the thick ones if that's their strategy.
    Considering the insults you Kippers throw around without foundation....
    You spend more time insulting Kippers than any Kipper poster on here does insulting Tories. And then you're surprised when other posters don't defend you.
    Pointing out the facts isn't an insult.

    Stick to blaming Theresa May for prison escapes
    The "fact" that the vast majority of UKIP supporters are thick and obsessed with Muslims? Apparently you're too thick to be able to know what a fact is.

    And Theresa May is so thick, she pledges to reduce immigration by 60% and ends up increasing it.
    The polling and studies back up my assertions.
  • Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    It's an easy mistake to make, TSE.

    I've often trotted round for a quick confession only to find myself kneeling before a puzzled-looking Imam.
    I'd like to see a poll asking people to identify what type of religious building Westminster cathedral is from just a picture. I know the building as I lived near there, but it does look more like a mosque than a cathedral.
    I used to work opposite, Socco. It's one of London's hidden treasures.

    Nevertheless I think anybody who mistakes it for a mosque needs a trip to Specsavers. The absence of a separate entrance for Ladies is a bit of a giveaway.
    I'm not sure you can easily tell the entrance labels from the backshot of a news report. The reality is that, unlike most British cathedrals, it's built in the Byzantine style, and Islamic architecture followed the Byzantine style from the Dome of the Rock onwards.
    OK, Socco, point taken.

    I can in fact see the similarities. I still think the culprit deserves his or her place in the Twitter For Dummies class, next to Ms Thornbury.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Speedy said:

    Good news, since Ashcroft has a thing of polling LD seats we have now got polls in 37 out of 57 LD seats, all but 6 LD seats in E&W have now been polled and the result is (if they keep those extra 6 seats) LD are ahead in 26 seats in E&W, looks like the end result for the LD could be under 30 seats depending on scotland.

    3, possibly 4 in Scotland so that would be pretty much bang on.

    I keep thinking it must get better for the Lib Dems but now they are falling behind the Greens on a fairly regular basis. It is very hard to reconcile these kind of scores with polling at the 5% level.

    The US have the concept of a wave election where everything goes regardless of local strength. IMO the Lib Dems either double their current polling or it really is wipe out time, however popular the individuals are.
    The 6 seats are

    Westmoreland & Lonsdale
    Norfolk North
    Bath

    and 3 others ?

    All should be (Very) easy LD holds.
    Those 6 have the biggest LD majorities in E&W.
    The cut-off for LD losses in E&W seems to be around the 3-4% swing to the Tories mark and the 10-11% swing to Labour mark.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Solihull-June-2014-Full-tables.pdf

    Solihull...

    A better 1-3 shot for the Tories than 1-3 on the Lib Dems in Hallam I reckon !
  • Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    Keep insulting the people you need to win back for a majority. It's pretty clear the Tories are the thick ones if that's their strategy.
    Considering the insults you Kippers throw around without foundation....
    You spend more time insulting Kippers than any Kipper poster on here does insulting Tories. And then you're surprised when other posters don't defend you.
    Pointing out the facts isn't an insult.

    Stick to blaming Theresa May for prison escapes
    The "fact" that the vast majority of UKIP supporters are thick and obsessed with Muslims? Apparently you're too thick to be able to know what a fact is.

    And Theresa May is so thick, she pledges to reduce immigration by 60% and ends up increasing it.
    That was Cameron's pledge, not May's. He got to be PM by telling the voters what they wanted to hear and May got lumbered with the blame when they couldn't deliver it. Cameron may be full of shit, but neither of them is thick.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited November 2014

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    Keep insulting the people you need to win back for a majority. It's pretty clear the Tories are the thick ones if that's their strategy.
    Considering the insults you Kippers throw around without foundation....
    You spend more time insulting Kippers than any Kipper poster on here does insulting Tories. And then you're surprised when other posters don't defend you.
    Pointing out the facts isn't an insult.

    Stick to blaming Theresa May for prison escapes
    The "fact" that the vast majority of UKIP supporters are thick and obsessed with Muslims? Apparently you're too thick to be able to know what a fact is.

    And Theresa May is so thick, she pledges to reduce immigration by 60% and ends up increasing it.
    The polling and studies back up my assertions.
    You said that if UKIP lost those who were both "thick" and "obsessed with Islam/Muslims", they'd be polling behind the Loonies. UKIP are on an average of 15 points in the polls, and the Loonies are less than one point. So, a 14 point difference, or 93% of UKIP's supporters are supposedly "thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims".

    Let us please see your "polling and studies" evidence, and we can see how thick or not you are.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016
    Speedy said:

    DavidL said:

    Speedy said:

    Good news, since Ashcroft has a thing of polling LD seats we have now got polls in 37 out of 57 LD seats, all but 6 LD seats in E&W have now been polled and the result is (if they keep those extra 6 seats) LD are ahead in 26 seats in E&W, looks like the end result for the LD could be under 30 seats depending on scotland.

    3, possibly 4 in Scotland so that would be pretty much bang on.

    I keep thinking it must get better for the Lib Dems but now they are falling behind the Greens on a fairly regular basis. It is very hard to reconcile these kind of scores with polling at the 5% level.

    The US have the concept of a wave election where everything goes regardless of local strength. IMO the Lib Dems either double their current polling or it really is wipe out time, however popular the individuals are.
    I think 2 LD seats in scotland is the baseline.
    I think Carmichael, Thurso and Kennedy are all relatively safe even at very poor levels. I would like to see Danny Alexander hold on but that is looking like wishful thinking at the moment. South of Inverness it looks like a wipe out which is why I fancy the tories for Berwickshire West Aberdeenshire. Not so much a tory surge as a lib dem collapse.
  • Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    Keep insulting the people you need to win back for a majority. It's pretty clear the Tories are the thick ones if that's their strategy.
    Considering the insults you Kippers throw around without foundation....
    You spend more time insulting Kippers than any Kipper poster on here does insulting Tories. And then you're surprised when other posters don't defend you.
    Pointing out the facts isn't an insult.

    Stick to blaming Theresa May for prison escapes
    The "fact" that the vast majority of UKIP supporters are thick and obsessed with Muslims? Apparently you're too thick to be able to know what a fact is.

    And Theresa May is so thick, she pledges to reduce immigration by 60% and ends up increasing it.
    The polling and studies back up my assertions.
    You said that if UKIP lost those who were both "thick" and "obsessed with Islam/Muslims", they'd be polling behind the Loonies. UKIP are on an average of 15 points in the polls, and the Loonies are less than one point. So, a 14 point difference, or 93% of UKIP's supporters are supposedly "thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims".

    Let us please see your "polling and studies" evidence, and we can see how thick or not you are.
    Hopefully I'm not the only Kipper with a PhD :)
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    Keep insulting the people you need to win back for a majority. It's pretty clear the Tories are the thick ones if that's their strategy.
    Considering the insults you Kippers throw around without foundation....
    You spend more time insulting Kippers than any Kipper poster on here does insulting Tories. And then you're surprised when other posters don't defend you.
    Pointing out the facts isn't an insult.

    Stick to blaming Theresa May for prison escapes
    The "fact" that the vast majority of UKIP supporters are thick and obsessed with Muslims? Apparently you're too thick to be able to know what a fact is.

    And Theresa May is so thick, she pledges to reduce immigration by 60% and ends up increasing it.
    That was Cameron's pledge, not May's. He got to be PM by telling the voters what they wanted to hear and May got lumbered with the blame when they couldn't deliver it. Cameron may be full of shit, but neither of them is thick.
    Theresa May has repeated the pledge herself. And even if she didn't agree with it, you have to be pretty damn useless to try to achieve major reductions in immigration and actually go backwards.
  • DavidL said:

    Speedy said:

    DavidL said:

    Speedy said:

    Good news, since Ashcroft has a thing of polling LD seats we have now got polls in 37 out of 57 LD seats, all but 6 LD seats in E&W have now been polled and the result is (if they keep those extra 6 seats) LD are ahead in 26 seats in E&W, looks like the end result for the LD could be under 30 seats depending on scotland.

    3, possibly 4 in Scotland so that would be pretty much bang on.

    I keep thinking it must get better for the Lib Dems but now they are falling behind the Greens on a fairly regular basis. It is very hard to reconcile these kind of scores with polling at the 5% level.

    The US have the concept of a wave election where everything goes regardless of local strength. IMO the Lib Dems either double their current polling or it really is wipe out time, however popular the individuals are.
    I think 2 LD seats in scotland is the baseline.
    I think Carmichael, Thurso and Kennedy are all relatively safe even at very poor levels. I would like to see Danny Alexander hold on but that is looking like wishful thinking at the moment. South of Inverness it looks like a wipe out which is why I fancy the tories for Berwickshire West Aberdeenshire. Not so much a tory surge as a lib dem collapse.
    The SNP are currently evens favourites in Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross. If you think that Viscount Thurso is safe, you should lump on at 6/4.
  • Patrick said:

    Does anyone know if the likely unflushable yellow peril MPs tend more to Orange Book or lefty?

    I tried to work that out a while back then realised it was pointless as technically Vince Cable is a yellow Booker.
    Really? !!!

    (He must be the red bit to mix with others who are yellow)
  • Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    It's an easy mistake to make, TSE.

    I've often trotted round for a quick confession only to find myself kneeling before a puzzled-looking Imam.
    I'd like to see a poll asking people to identify what type of religious building Westminster cathedral is from just a picture. I know the building as I lived near there, but it does look more like a mosque than a cathedral.
    Nah, there aren't any minarets!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    Pulpstar said:

    I said a while back the Lib Dems are like an STD and even harder to get rid off

    So long as they are gone in Solihull ^_~
    I still think it will be a Lib Dem hold. Look how well they are doing nearby in Yardley
    Would you like a bet as follows:

    +£25 Lib Dems win Hallam and lose Solihull I pay you
    -£25 Cons win Solihull and Clegg loses his seat you pay me ?
    Any other result a wash.
  • BenM said:

    I'd vote Tory in Thanet South.

    I'd vote Labour in Doncaster North !
    Tories for Ed!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    Keep insulting the people you need to win back for a majority. It's pretty clear the Tories are the thick ones if that's their strategy.
    Considering the insults you Kippers throw around without foundation....
    You spend more time insulting Kippers than any Kipper poster on here does insulting Tories. And then you're surprised when other posters don't defend you.
    Pointing out the facts isn't an insult.

    Stick to blaming Theresa May for prison escapes
    The "fact" that the vast majority of UKIP supporters are thick and obsessed with Muslims? Apparently you're too thick to be able to know what a fact is.

    And Theresa May is so thick, she pledges to reduce immigration by 60% and ends up increasing it.
    That was Cameron's pledge, not May's. He got to be PM by telling the voters what they wanted to hear and May got lumbered with the blame when they couldn't deliver it. Cameron may be full of shit, but neither of them is thick.
    Theresa May has repeated the pledge herself. And even if she didn't agree with it, you have to be pretty damn useless to try to achieve major reductions in immigration and actually go backwards.
    Ah, but she called it a "comment"

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    @rcs1000

    *important*

    Robert - just got a weird message from you on linkedin.

    Looks like spam - has your profile been hacked?

    (Or is it real...if you are reduced to that level then things must be bad in the City...)
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    It's an easy mistake to make, TSE.

    I've often trotted round for a quick confession only to find myself kneeling before a puzzled-looking Imam.
    I'd like to see a poll asking people to identify what type of religious building Westminster cathedral is from just a picture. I know the building as I lived near there, but it does look more like a mosque than a cathedral.
    Nah, there aren't any minarets!
    A Byzantine campanile looks pretty similar to a minaret.
  • BenM said:

    I'd vote Tory in Thanet South.

    I'd vote Labour in Doncaster North !
    If I lived in either Thanet South or Doncaster North, I'd move.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    edited November 2014
    antifrank said:

    DavidL said:

    Speedy said:

    DavidL said:

    Speedy said:

    Good news, since Ashcroft has a thing of polling LD seats we have now got polls in 37 out of 57 LD seats, all but 6 LD seats in E&W have now been polled and the result is (if they keep those extra 6 seats) LD are ahead in 26 seats in E&W, looks like the end result for the LD could be under 30 seats depending on scotland.

    3, possibly 4 in Scotland so that would be pretty much bang on.

    I keep thinking it must get better for the Lib Dems but now they are falling behind the Greens on a fairly regular basis. It is very hard to reconcile these kind of scores with polling at the 5% level.

    The US have the concept of a wave election where everything goes regardless of local strength. IMO the Lib Dems either double their current polling or it really is wipe out time, however popular the individuals are.
    I think 2 LD seats in scotland is the baseline.
    I think Carmichael, Thurso and Kennedy are all relatively safe even at very poor levels. I would like to see Danny Alexander hold on but that is looking like wishful thinking at the moment. South of Inverness it looks like a wipe out which is why I fancy the tories for Berwickshire West Aberdeenshire. Not so much a tory surge as a lib dem collapse.
    The SNP are currently evens favourites in Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross. If you think that Viscount Thurso is safe, you should lump on at 6/4.
    I think 6-4 is pretty decent for the Lib Dems there actually. In for £40.

    Especially as I'm on the SNP there already at 6-1 or something ^_^ !
  • Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    It's an easy mistake to make, TSE.

    I've often trotted round for a quick confession only to find myself kneeling before a puzzled-looking Imam.
    I'd like to see a poll asking people to identify what type of religious building Westminster cathedral is from just a picture. I know the building as I lived near there, but it does look more like a mosque than a cathedral.
    Nah, there aren't any minarets!
    A Byzantine campanile looks pretty similar to a minaret.
    Should've gone to specsavers :)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westminster_Cathedral
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Any idea how UKIP went up or stayed put in every table in South Thanet compared to last Ashcroft poll but down 4 in the headline figure?
  • Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    Keep insulting the people you need to win back for a majority. It's pretty clear the Tories are the thick ones if that's their strategy.
    Considering the insults you Kippers throw around without foundation....
    You spend more time insulting Kippers than any Kipper poster on here does insulting Tories. And then you're surprised when other posters don't defend you.
    Pointing out the facts isn't an insult.

    Stick to blaming Theresa May for prison escapes
    The "fact" that the vast majority of UKIP supporters are thick and obsessed with Muslims? Apparently you're too thick to be able to know what a fact is.

    And Theresa May is so thick, she pledges to reduce immigration by 60% and ends up increasing it.
    That was Cameron's pledge, not May's. He got to be PM by telling the voters what they wanted to hear and May got lumbered with the blame when they couldn't deliver it. Cameron may be full of shit, but neither of them is thick.
    Theresa May has repeated the pledge herself. And even if she didn't agree with it, you have to be pretty damn useless to try to achieve major reductions in immigration and actually go backwards.
    She had to repeat it, it was her government's policy. And there wasn't much left the government could legally do except at the cost of serious economic damage: Gordon Brown realised the issue was killing him with WWC voters back in 2008 and he'd already picked most of the low-hanging fruit.
  • Is it true that the same Tories preaching "Vote UKIP get Ed" from the electoral pulpit would actually for him in Doncaster? :)
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I said a while back the Lib Dems are like an STD and even harder to get rid off

    So long as they are gone in Solihull ^_~
    I still think it will be a Lib Dem hold. Look how well they are doing nearby in Yardley
    Would you like a bet as follows:

    +£25 Lib Dems win Hallam and lose Solihull I pay you
    -£25 Cons win Solihull and Clegg loses his seat you pay me ?
    Any other result a wash.
    Erm... I think I want to take that bet pulpstar, If I can get my head around it!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2014
    I finished the analysis of the new constituency polls and added them into the lot with the others.
    We now have polls in 114 constituencies, 62 CON seats, 37 LD, 14 LAB and 1 GRN seat.
    Out of those the CON are losing 40 and gain 9, LAB gains 48, LD lose 17, UKIP gain 3 and GRN lose 1.
    The percentage change of votes in all constituency polls since 2010 (my favourite gauge) is CON-8.5, LAB+4, LD-13, UKIP+15.5 for a swing of just over 6% to Labour.

    In seats where swings actually matter:

    CON seats swings:
    To LAB 5.5 (same as comres poll yesterday), to UKIP 12.

    LAB seats swings:
    From CON 6.5, to UKIP 7.5

    LD seats swings:
    To CON 3.5, to LAB 10.5, to UKIP 14

    Irony alert, UKIP are registering a greater rise in Labour seats (18.5%) than in Tory seats(16%), but because Labour are up since 2010 the swing is much smaller. In my opinion UKIP have done a strategic mistake of targeting Labour voters instead of Tory voters, I think fate had a hand on this one as UKIP had faced only westminter by-elections in safe Labour seats until recently, so they had to tailor their policies to the average Labour voter at the expence of Tory voters.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited November 2014

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    It's an easy mistake to make, TSE.

    I've often trotted round for a quick confession only to find myself kneeling before a puzzled-looking Imam.
    I'd like to see a poll asking people to identify what type of religious building Westminster cathedral is from just a picture. I know the building as I lived near there, but it does look more like a mosque than a cathedral.
    Nah, there aren't any minarets!
    A Byzantine campanile looks pretty similar to a minaret.
    Should've gone to specsavers :)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westminster_Cathedral
    It's easy enough to work out the thought processes in play here.

    The building looks 'different', and it's in London. Ergo it's foreign. And it's got a tower. At this point the Red Alert klaxon sounds in the Kipper mind, and rather than does some basic research, a lightbulb sparks into life above a sign marked 'Mosque'.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I said a while back the Lib Dems are like an STD and even harder to get rid off

    So long as they are gone in Solihull ^_~
    I still think it will be a Lib Dem hold. Look how well they are doing nearby in Yardley
    Would you like a bet as follows:

    +£25 Lib Dems win Hallam and lose Solihull I pay you
    -£25 Cons win Solihull and Clegg loses his seat you pay me ?
    Any other result a wash.
    Erm...
    Whats wrong with it? the probability of the bet being a wash must be very high indeed, but I'm basically saying Solihull is a better 1-3 than Hallam.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    antifrank said:

    BenM said:

    I'd vote Tory in Thanet South.

    I'd vote Labour in Doncaster North !
    If I lived in either Thanet South or Doncaster North, I'd move.
    Snooty metropolitan elite...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I said a while back the Lib Dems are like an STD and even harder to get rid off

    So long as they are gone in Solihull ^_~
    I still think it will be a Lib Dem hold. Look how well they are doing nearby in Yardley
    Would you like a bet as follows:

    +£25 Lib Dems win Hallam and lose Solihull I pay you
    -£25 Cons win Solihull and Clegg loses his seat you pay me ?
    Any other result a wash.
    Erm... I think I want to take that bet pulpstar, If I can get my head around it!
    Sold to @Pong
  • Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    It's an easy mistake to make, TSE.

    I've often trotted round for a quick confession only to find myself kneeling before a puzzled-looking Imam.
    I'd like to see a poll asking people to identify what type of religious building Westminster cathedral is from just a picture. I know the building as I lived near there, but it does look more like a mosque than a cathedral.
    Nah, there aren't any minarets!
    A Byzantine campanile looks pretty similar to a minaret.
    Should've gone to specsavers :)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westminster_Cathedral
    It's easy enough to work out the thought processes in play here.

    The building looks 'different', and it's in London. Ergo it's foreign. And it's got a tower. Red Alert. At this point the Muslim klaxon sounds in the Kipper mind, and rather than does some basic research, a lightbulb sparks into life above a sign marked 'Mosque'.
    My impression of The Twitterati, Watcher, is that there is not generally a lot of thought being processed.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Speedy said:

    I finished the analysis of the new constituency polls and added them into the lot with the others.
    We now have polls in 114 constituencies, 62 CON seats, 37 LD, 14 LAB and 1 GRN seat.
    Out of those the CON are losing 40 and gain 9, LAB gains 48, LD lose 17, UKIP gain 3 and GRN lose 1.
    The percentage change of votes in all constituency polls since 2010 (my favourite gauge) is CON-8.5, LAB+4, LD-13, UKIP+15.5 for a swing of just over 6% to Labour.

    In seats where swings actually matter:

    CON seats swings:
    To LAB 5.5 (same as comres poll yesterday), to UKIP 12.

    LAB seats swings:
    From CON 6.5, to UKIP 7.5

    LD seats swings:
    To CON 3.5, to LAB 10.5, to UKIP 14

    Irony alert, UKIP are registering a greater rise in Labour seats (18.5%) than in Tory seats(16%), but because Labour are up since 2010 the swing is much smaller. In my opinion UKIP have done a strategic mistake of targeting Labour voters instead of Tory voters, I think fate had a hand on this one as UKIP had faced only westminter by-elections in safe Labour seats until recently, so they had to tailor their policies to the average Labour voter at the expence of Tory voters.

    Isnt a lot of the reason that UKIP get a bigger swing in Labour seats that Tories in Labour seats are voting for UKIP rather than Labour voters switching? If that is so then it follows that Tories in Tory seats are less likely to vote UKIP doesn't it?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I said a while back the Lib Dems are like an STD and even harder to get rid off

    So long as they are gone in Solihull ^_~
    I still think it will be a Lib Dem hold. Look how well they are doing nearby in Yardley
    Would you like a bet as follows:

    +£25 Lib Dems win Hallam and lose Solihull I pay you
    -£25 Cons win Solihull and Clegg loses his seat you pay me ?
    Any other result a wash.
    Erm...
    Whats wrong with it? the probability of the bet being a wash must be very high indeed, but I'm basically saying Solihull is a better 1-3 than Hallam.
    Yeah, i disagree. Wanna bet?

    Alternatively, we could have a fun spreadbet type punt on the voteshare difference?

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    isam said:

    Any idea how UKIP went up or stayed put in every table in South Thanet compared to last Ashcroft poll but down 4 in the headline figure?

    The undeciders and the refusers are reallocated on their 2010 vote, so it favours the Tories and Labour
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Lord Ashcroft in June Tory/LibDem marginal battleground had
    Chipenham Tory Gain
    Mid Dorset Tory Gain
    North Cornwall TCTC
    Solihull Tory Gain
    Somerset and Frome Tory Gain
    St Austell Tory Gain
    St Ives Tory Gain
    Wells Tory Gain

    He had Cambourne, Harrogate, Newton Abbot, Oxford West, Truro and Watford as Tory holds

    He had Cheadle, Eastleigh and Sutton +Cheam as LibDem holds

    So in 1st 19 seats, 6 Tory holds, 3 LibDem holds, 7 Tory gains and 1 TCTC
    .....................................................................................................................
    Lord Ashcroft in Sep Wider LibDem marginal battleground had
    Tories holding Oxford West and losing Watford to Labour
    Berwick on Tweed Tory Gain
    Chipenham still a Tory Gain
    Mid Dorset still a Tory Gain
    North Conrwall still TCTC
    Solihull still a Tory Gain
    Somerset and Frome still a Tory Gain
    St Austell still a Tory Gain
    Taunton Dean Tory Gain
    Torbay TCTC
    Wells still a Tory Gain

    He had the LibDems holding Cheadle, Eastleigh, Sutton + Cheam, Eastbourne and this time also St Ives

    So in these 17 seats, 1 Tory hold and 1 Lab gain, 5 LibDem holds, 8 Tory Gains and 2 TCTC. He also had Labour taking 4 of the 5 LibDem-Lab marginal he listed.
    .....................................................................................................................
    Finally today the safer LibDem seats with 9+% majorities

    Brecon, Carshalton, Cheltenham, Colchester, Hazel Grove, Kingston, Lewes, Southport and Thorbury all show as LibDem holds

    North Devon Tory Gain
    Portsmouth South Tory Gain

    Watford returns from Lab gain to Tory hold

    In the 2 LibDem-Labour seats, LibDems hold one (Birmingham Yardley) and lose one (Burnley) and the Tory-Indep battle Wyre Forest, it's a Tory hold.

    So in the 15 seats today 2 Tory holds, 2 Tory gains, 1 Lab gain and 10 LibDem holds.
    ...........................................................................................................................

    The cumulative effect of these 3 polls is the LibDems win no Tory seats and lose 5 to Labour. They hold on to 14 of the seats polled and lose 10 to the Tories with 2 more TCTC.

    I would say potentially losing 17 out of 31 seats polled is pretty catastrophic.
  • Portsmouth South continues to look like fun.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Hmm Have I phrased that right I know what I mean but
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    ...google images...

    ...looks like a Mosque. Or at least could be one...
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I said a while back the Lib Dems are like an STD and even harder to get rid off

    So long as they are gone in Solihull ^_~
    I still think it will be a Lib Dem hold. Look how well they are doing nearby in Yardley
    Would you like a bet as follows:

    +£25 Lib Dems win Hallam and lose Solihull I pay you
    -£25 Cons win Solihull and Clegg loses his seat you pay me ?
    Any other result a wash.
    Erm... I think I want to take that bet pulpstar, If I can get my head around it!
    Sold to @Pong
    Eh? Don't both sides of this bet anticipate the Tories winning Solihull?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Speedy said:

    isam said:

    Any idea how UKIP went up or stayed put in every table in South Thanet compared to last Ashcroft poll but down 4 in the headline figure?

    The undeciders and the refusers are reallocated on their 2010 vote, so it favours the Tories and Labour
    Yes but wasn't that the case in Ashcroft's July poll as well?

    UKIP improved from July to Nov in the tables, but went down in the headline. If the methodology was the same, that shouldn't happen should it?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    It's an easy mistake to make, TSE.

    I've often trotted round for a quick confession only to find myself kneeling before a puzzled-looking Imam.
    I'd like to see a poll asking people to identify what type of religious building Westminster cathedral is from just a picture. I know the building as I lived near there, but it does look more like a mosque than a cathedral.
    Nah, there aren't any minarets!
    A Byzantine campanile looks pretty similar to a minaret.
    Should've gone to specsavers :)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westminster_Cathedral
    It's easy enough to work out the thought processes in play here.

    The building looks 'different', and it's in London. Ergo it's foreign. And it's got a tower. Red Alert. At this point the Muslim klaxon sounds in the Kipper mind, and rather than does some basic research, a lightbulb sparks into life above a sign marked 'Mosque'.
    My impression of The Twitterati, Watcher, is that there is not generally a lot of thought being processed.
    People jump to the conclusion they want to, it happens to all of us

    Remember OGH's thread on the UKIP ad that got the date of the Elections wrong?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    isam said:

    Speedy said:

    isam said:

    Any idea how UKIP went up or stayed put in every table in South Thanet compared to last Ashcroft poll but down 4 in the headline figure?

    The undeciders and the refusers are reallocated on their 2010 vote, so it favours the Tories and Labour
    Yes but wasn't that the case in Ashcroft's July poll as well?

    UKIP improved from July to Nov in the tables, but went down in the headline. If the methodology was the same, that shouldn't happen should it?
    Without the reallocation by past vote of undeciders and refusers the result is UKIP 36, CON 33, LAB 26. Is that ok now?
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    BenM said:

    I'd vote Tory in Thanet South.

    And I would vote Labour if they were running Farage close...
  • Speedy said:

    I finished the analysis of the new constituency polls and added them into the lot with the others.
    We now have polls in 114 constituencies, 62 CON seats, 37 LD, 14 LAB and 1 GRN seat.
    Out of those the CON are losing 40 and gain 9, LAB gains 48, LD lose 17, UKIP gain 3 and GRN lose 1.
    The percentage change of votes in all constituency polls since 2010 (my favourite gauge) is CON-8.5, LAB+4, LD-13, UKIP+15.5 for a swing of just over 6% to Labour.

    In seats where swings actually matter:

    CON seats swings:
    To LAB 5.5 (same as comres poll yesterday), to UKIP 12.

    LAB seats swings:
    From CON 6.5, to UKIP 7.5

    LD seats swings:
    To CON 3.5, to LAB 10.5, to UKIP 14

    Irony alert, UKIP are registering a greater rise in Labour seats (18.5%) than in Tory seats(16%), but because Labour are up since 2010 the swing is much smaller. In my opinion UKIP have done a strategic mistake of targeting Labour voters instead of Tory voters, I think fate had a hand on this one as UKIP had faced only westminter by-elections in safe Labour seats until recently, so they had to tailor their policies to the average Labour voter at the expence of Tory voters.

    The VI has moved considerably since some of the earlier polls.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    on topic:

    for the Cons to have made a pledge and to have failed so fantastically worries me greatly.

    Forget about whether immigrants do or don't contribute positively to the host nation (they do, slightly, but at the expense, surprise surprise, of those they displace in the workforce).

    Cam said that it would come down, not only did it not come down but the rise should greatly concern people that it is "out of control". Well if the govt wants to reduce it and it rises then it is transparently out of control.

    I am worried about what reaction this might inspire in other parties or in the voters.

    I want immigration to slow down. I do not want a knee-jerk, soundbite policy from any party to slow it down.
  • Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    DavidL said:

    Speedy said:

    DavidL said:

    Speedy said:

    Good news, since Ashcroft has a thing of polling LD seats we have now got polls in 37 out of 57 LD seats, all but 6 LD seats in E&W have now been polled and the result is (if they keep those extra 6 seats) LD are ahead in 26 seats in E&W, looks like the end result for the LD could be under 30 seats depending on scotland.

    3, possibly 4 in Scotland so that would be pretty much bang on.

    I keep thinking it must get better for the Lib Dems but now they are falling behind the Greens on a fairly regular basis. It is very hard to reconcile these kind of scores with polling at the 5% level.

    The US have the concept of a wave election where everything goes regardless of local strength. IMO the Lib Dems either double their current polling or it really is wipe out time, however popular the individuals are.
    I think 2 LD seats in scotland is the baseline.
    I think Carmichael, Thurso and Kennedy are all relatively safe even at very poor levels. I would like to see Danny Alexander hold on but that is looking like wishful thinking at the moment. South of Inverness it looks like a wipe out which is why I fancy the tories for Berwickshire West Aberdeenshire. Not so much a tory surge as a lib dem collapse.
    The SNP are currently evens favourites in Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross. If you think that Viscount Thurso is safe, you should lump on at 6/4.
    I think 6-4 is pretty decent for the Lib Dems there actually. In for £40.

    Especially as I'm on the SNP there already at 6-1 or something ^_^ !
    Yup, the 6/4 looks good. Thanx. I'm on too.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2014
    Rexel56 said:

    BenM said:

    I'd vote Tory in Thanet South.

    And I would vote Labour if they were running Farage close...
    I agree with both of you BUT I'd vote anything from Communist to Britain First if it would ensure EdM lost. Man's a menace to this country and it's future prosperity.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I said a while back the Lib Dems are like an STD and even harder to get rid off

    So long as they are gone in Solihull ^_~
    I still think it will be a Lib Dem hold. Look how well they are doing nearby in Yardley
    Would you like a bet as follows:

    +£25 Lib Dems win Hallam and lose Solihull I pay you
    -£25 Cons win Solihull and Clegg loses his seat you pay me ?
    Any other result a wash.
    Erm... I think I want to take that bet pulpstar, If I can get my head around it!
    Sold to @Pong
    Eh? Don't both sides of this bet anticipate the Tories winning Solihull?
    Ye I've misphrased it, clarified in a private message to Pong. I know what I meant to say !
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mosque-go ?

    KentOnline ‏@Kent_Online 2h2 hours ago
    #Ukip South Thanet member 'no longer on twitter' after mistaking cathedral for mosque: http://bit.ly/1rqz7X8

    If all the thick Kippers obsessed with Islam/Muslims disappeared UKIP would be polling behind the loonies.
    Keep insulting the people you need to win back for a majority. It's pretty clear the Tories are the thick ones if that's their strategy.
    Considering the insults you Kippers throw around without foundation....
    You spend more time insulting Kippers than any Kipper poster on here does insulting Tories. And then you're surprised when other posters don't defend you.
    Pointing out the facts isn't an insult.

    Stick to blaming Theresa May for prison escapes
    The "fact" that the vast majority of UKIP supporters are thick and obsessed with Muslims? Apparently you're too thick to be able to know what a fact is.

    And Theresa May is so thick, she pledges to reduce immigration by 60% and ends up increasing it.
    That was Cameron's pledge, not May's. He got to be PM by telling the voters what they wanted to hear and May got lumbered with the blame when they couldn't deliver it. Cameron may be full of shit, but neither of them is thick.
    Theresa May has repeated the pledge herself. And even if she didn't agree with it, you have to be pretty damn useless to try to achieve major reductions in immigration and actually go backwards.
    She had to repeat it, it was her government's policy. And there wasn't much left the government could legally do except at the cost of serious economic damage: Gordon Brown realised the issue was killing him with WWC voters back in 2008 and he'd already picked most of the low-hanging fruit.
    A government with a majority in parliament is quite able to change the law as necessary. The vast majority of immigrants, EU and non-EU are not educated to university level. We could easily reduce how many of them are coming here without "serious economic damage".
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    Surprising about Farage. If he can't get elected, then I suspect many of UKIP's other targets will also fail to fall.

    Can UKIP ever win a parliamentary seat when their candidate isn't a traitorous pig dog?
    Probably not. They have yet to win any seat in their own candidate's merits.

    I can certainly envisage Carswell returning to the Conservative fold.

    Just goes to show, when it comes to fixing the economy or getting elected as a UKIP MP, you need a Tory to deliver it.....

  • TOPPING said:

    on topic:

    for the Cons to have made a pledge and to have failed so fantastically worries me greatly.

    Forget about whether immigrants do or don't contribute positively to the host nation (they do, slightly, but at the expense, surprise surprise, of those they displace in the workforce).

    Cam said that it would come down, not only did it not come down but the rise should greatly concern people that it is "out of control". Well if the govt wants to reduce it and it rises then it is transparently out of control.

    I am worried about what reaction this might inspire in other parties or in the voters.

    I want immigration to slow down. I do not want a knee-jerk, soundbite policy from any party to slow it down.

    It is going to be a very tricky one for him to deal with in a TV debate, if there is one, and especially of Farage is included.
This discussion has been closed.