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Main opposition party leader seat polling from @Lord Ashcroft pic.twitter.com/NtRm0hCnih
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Hills and Paddy still 9-2 ! (Con/Thanet South)
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/11/lord-ashcroft-some-surprises-in-my-latest-constituency-polling-and-a-look-at-the-leaders-backyards.html
-John Hemmings has the mother of all incumbency boosts.
-Conservatives unchanged in Watford since last poll, the LD selection has tore into Labour share.
Then Ed
Then Nick (But not 1-3 safe)
Nigel is a 3 way coin flip and is the worst value in the betting markets at a ridiculous 4-11.
After the election can Farage remain as UKIP leader if Carswell and a couple of other UKIPers get elected as MPs and he doesn't?
Farage wasn't the candidate then, and UKIP got 3% of the vote Nationally in 2010. If you think that is of no significance/that he might be a drag on the UKIP vote rather than a boost for it then I guess you could back the Tories
UKIP 35%, Con 32%, Lab 26%
Its only the reallocation of 'don't know' voters to their 2010 choice that swings it for the Conservatives in Table 5.
UKIP 29%, Con 33%, Lab 27%
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Thanet-South-poll-Nov-14-Full-tables.pdf
It's a no brainer.
Given that the Scottish government under-spends its budget every year its not that note worthy.
@LadPolitics: Latest @LordAshcroft polling has resulted in some dramatic changes in the betting esp Thanet South & Portsmouth South odds.
"Net migration hits 260,000 in new blow for Government pledge
Surge of 78,000 year-on-year driven by eastern European migrants after ministers admit promise to cut net migration has been 'blown off course'"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11256116/Net-migration-hits-260000-in-new-blow-for-Government-pledge.html
The betting story here is that LDs are hanging tough in LD/Con marginals, but less so in LD/Lab marginals. This will make it very difficult for the Tories to win an overall majority.
NOM looks increasingly likely. Even at 1/2, it's probably still the value bet.
To my surprise, I find myself buying LD on the seats spreads.
If Farage can't be ahead now after Clacton and Rochester in his chosen seat, Laura Sandys is correct, he will remain an MEP on 8th May. Carswell to be UKIP leader by June?
Thanet South now 4-6/7-4.
LD 43% (-5)
Con 23% (-14)
UKIP 17% (+14)
Lab 12% (+3)
I might be being a bit thick here, but do these people understand that by voting Lib Dem instead of Tory they may prevent a Tory majority? Or do they love their local Lib Dem MP that much?
I am sticking with my 36-40 LD seats after next May .
You would have thought that the mainstream parties might be working harder on the ground and therefore reducing their share.
But there appears to be no evidence of this.
In addition some of the changes between national and local intention look astonishingly large.
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges·54 secs55 seconds ago London, England
I reckon @DouglasCarswell is the only Kipper with any chance of being an MP after 2015. And at that point he'll defect back.
There wasn't much in the more marginal ones.
Which just leaves a little niggle. If people are that set on voting tactically, why don't they say so in reply to Q1? That suggests that most people are just responding without thinking about the constituency, and it's only when that aspect is prompted for that they think oh, yeah, well, if you put it like that... The LibDems still have a bit of work to do in hardening up the intention.
Incidentally, I chatted to John Hemmings (Yardley) at the LibDem conference (we're bridge partners). He was cautiously hopeful though he said it was really impossible to be sure.
I don't want him back.
East Renfrewshire - Result 2010
Lab (Jim Murphy MP) 25,987
Con 15,567
LD 4,720
SNP 4,535
UKIP 372
But look at Shadsy's current pricing:
East Renfrewshire - Ladbrokes
Lab 1/3
SNP 5/2
Con 20/1
UKIP 100/1
LD 100/1
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-30232569
20-1 or so and I'd be on it like a hooker on a phallus that emitted a brewed beverage to paraphrase Irvine Welsh.
But for once I agree with you! ;-)
Would Farage's name helped or hindered UKIP figures in Thanet S?
http://newstonoone.blogspot.com/2014/11/reading-entrails-few-polling.html
Hills & Paddy are your friends ^_@
Dream on. You are in trouble.
LD EVS
Con 11/10
SNP 6/1
UKIP 100/1
Lab 100/1
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk - Result 2010
LD (Michael Moore MP) 22,230
Con 16,555
Lab 5,003
SNP 4,497
UKIP 595
Jacobite 134
The Tories are going with the same candidate again: John Lamont MSP, the Scottish Conservative Chief Whip and Parliamentary Business Manager.
I'm sceptical about this whole issue - we just don't know enough to be able say definitively that Q2 is a better guide to the final result than Q1. It might be, but we can't be sure.
Equally it is hard to know how much credence to give to the different swings in different seats. By the time you factor in statistical noise and weighting difficulties, the differences might not be very reliable at all.
It will make for a very interesting post-mortem.
Lab 1/20 (from 1/100 this morning)
UKIP 8/1 (from 12/1 this morning)
Con 33/1 (from 50/1 this morning)
LD 100/1
It just doesn't feel right.
Not doubting Lord Ashcroft's integrity at all.
But the Tories up since 2010. I know Ed is crap but still.
Constituents like having leaders as their MP and Farage will enjoy even greater prominence during the election and the media will focus heavily on the seat. Ukip will also pour resources into the seat. However a cross current will be tactical voting against him.
On balance I believe Farage is favourite to win the seat.
If there were, you'd have several by now. Well done.
However, I still want to take all this with a bit of a pinch of salt. I'd like to see Ashcroft repeat the same polling month on month so we have a point of reference. Then we can spot trends. This feels too much like pinning a tail on the donkey.
What are the changes from the last Lord Ashcroft poll of the constituency?
- Clegg down 22% in his own constituency with Lab up 12%. Might need to launch a charm offensive on the Hallam Tories to tactically vote for him
- Miliband's score is hardly a ringing endorsement - down 7% on 2010. Must give UKIP hope in the other 2 Doncaster seats, which are better for them
- Farage will be disappointed, although hasn't been the candidate that long. Will need to work the seat hard in the run up to the GE
Cambridge isn't the north of England, and Huppert seems like the sort of MP red liberals will have no problem at all voting for. In addition yes I note the Labour bloke finished behind the Cons last time...
£13 @ 5-4 and £7 @ 11-10 for me.
I can certainly envisage Carswell returning to the Conservative fold.
Edit: I got the wrong Kipper MP. My bad and it was a 50:50 call. Still, they can keep them both.
However with constituency betting it is essential not to hostility toward an individual or party cloud ones judgement of the reality on the ground. Also there's little doubt Farage would add to the gayety of the HoC.