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SystemSystem Posts: 12,685
edited November 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage in trouble in Thanet S while Clegg could be struggling in Sheffield Hallam

Main opposition party leader seat polling from @Lord Ashcroft pic.twitter.com/NtRm0hCnih

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  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2014
    Tories up 2 points in Doncaster North compared to GE2010? Seems odd.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/thanet-south/winning-party

    Hills and Paddy still 9-2 ! (Con/Thanet South)
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    AndyJS said:

    Tories up 2 points in Doncaster North compared to GE2010? Seems odd.

    Given the margin of error there is is a 30ish percent chance that they aren't really I guess.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    Clegg is safe.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    Look at the best PM ratings in Thanet South too !
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    AndyJS said:

    Tories up 2 points in Doncaster North compared to GE2010? Seems odd.

    The Power of Ed.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Swings from Con to LD in Thornbury&Yate and Carshalton&Wallington.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/11/lord-ashcroft-some-surprises-in-my-latest-constituency-polling-and-a-look-at-the-leaders-backyards.html
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,894
    Not too many surprises in the Con-LD battleground. Two observations:
    -John Hemmings has the mother of all incumbency boosts.
    -Conservatives unchanged in Watford since last poll, the LD selection has tore into Labour share.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,087
    Only Party leader to retain/gain seat would be Cameron ???
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Clegg is safe.

    Probably but 1-3 looks skinny.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    Surprising about Farage. If he can't get elected, then I suspect many of UKIP's other targets will also fail to fall.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Farage in big trouble - LabLIbCon types will tactically vote again to stop the Kipper.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    How funny if Farage wasn't elected while Miliband and Clegg lost their seats!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    logical_song said:

    Only Party leader to retain/gain seat would be Cameron ???

    Cameron is the safest
    Then Ed
    Then Nick (But not 1-3 safe)
    Nigel is a 3 way coin flip and is the worst value in the betting markets at a ridiculous 4-11.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Artist said:

    Not too many surprises in the Con-LD battleground. Two observations:
    -John Hemmings has the mother of all incumbency boosts.
    -Conservatives unchanged in Watford since last poll, the LD selection has tore into Labour share.

    IMO Yardley could be the only constituency in the country where the LD share rises.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    MarqueeMark said:

    Surprising about Farage. If he can't get elected, then I suspect many of UKIP's other targets will also fail to fall.

    Can UKIP ever win a parliamentary seat when their candidate isn't a traitorous pig dog?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    Have to admit John Hemmings must be doing a stunning job in Yardley.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,087
    Pulpstar said:

    logical_song said:

    Only Party leader to retain/gain seat would be Cameron ???

    Cameron is the safest
    Then Ed
    Then Nick (But not 1-3 safe)
    Nigel is a 3 way coin flip and is the worst value in the betting markets at a ridiculous 4-11.
    Yes a complete overreaction on my part. I think Ed and Nick will be OK.
    After the election can Farage remain as UKIP leader if Carswell and a couple of other UKIPers get elected as MPs and he doesn't?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    logical_song said:

    Only Party leader to retain/gain seat would be Cameron ???

    Cameron is the safest
    Then Ed
    Then Nick (But not 1-3 safe)
    Nigel is a 3 way coin flip and is the worst value in the betting markets at a ridiculous 4-11.
    The only thing to say about Witney is that it was surprising how close Labour got to winning it in 1997 and 2001, about 7,000 votes on each occasion.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Wyre Forest poll needs to be treated with caution. Lord Ashcroft has apparently not prompted for NHA (curiously, he did prompt for Plaid Cymru in Brecon & Radnorshire where Plaid have no particular history of support), so Dr Richard Taylor's personal vote in this seat may well be understated. I write as someone sitting on a 25/1 bet on UKIP in this constituency.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,632
    edited November 2014
    UKIP in the lead in Thanet South until weighting by 2010 vote is applied

    Farage wasn't the candidate then, and UKIP got 3% of the vote Nationally in 2010. If you think that is of no significance/that he might be a drag on the UKIP vote rather than a boost for it then I guess you could back the Tories
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MarqueeMark said:

    Surprising about Farage. If he can't get elected, then I suspect many of UKIP's other targets will also fail to fall.

    Table 4 has UKIP winning.

    UKIP 35%, Con 32%, Lab 26%

    Its only the reallocation of 'don't know' voters to their 2010 choice that swings it for the Conservatives in Table 5.

    UKIP 29%, Con 33%, Lab 27%

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Thanet-South-poll-Nov-14-Full-tables.pdf

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Surprising about Farage. If he can't get elected, then I suspect many of UKIP's other targets will also fail to fall.

    Can UKIP ever win a parliamentary seat when their candidate isn't a traitorous pig dog?
    Carswell is going to cut a lonely figure in the next Parliament..... Sitting uncomfortably with the Labour opposition as the sole representative of the Misguided Pig-Dog Traitor Can I Come Back Yet Dave? Party
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    isam said:

    UKIP in the lead in Thanet South until weighting by 2010 vote is applied

    Farage wasn't the candidate then, and UKIP got 3% of the vote Nationally in 2010. If you think that is of no significance/that he might be a drag on the UKIP vote rather than a boost for it then I guess you could back the Tories

    Cameron leads Farage on the best PM question in this seat. I'm not saying its impossible for Farage to win it but the current odds are 4-11 UKIP; 9-2 Con.

    It's a no brainer.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    4-11; 11-4 the pair now in Thanet South.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    UKIP in the lead in Thanet South until weighting by 2010 vote is applied

    Farage wasn't the candidate then, and UKIP got 3% of the vote Nationally in 2010. If you think that is of no significance/that he might be a drag on the UKIP vote rather than a boost for it then I guess you could back the Tories

    Cameron leads Farage on the best PM question in this seat. I'm not saying its impossible for Farage to win it but the current odds are 4-11 UKIP; 9-2 Con.

    It's a no brainer.
    Since Farage can't be, and in any case doesn't want to be PM, this is hardly a revelation.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    Labour is out of it in my opinion there. Their votes will split both anti-UKIP and anti-Con to UKIP/Con I reckon.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    One important point to note if I am reading the polls correctly is that whilst the "your constituency" question is polled the candidates names are not. This will have an effect in many of these seats especially Watford.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    antifrank said:

    The Wyre Forest poll needs to be treated with caution. Lord Ashcroft has apparently not prompted for NHA (curiously, he did prompt for Plaid Cymru in Brecon & Radnorshire where Plaid have no particular history of support), so Dr Richard Taylor's personal vote in this seat may well be understated. I write as someone sitting on a 25/1 bet on UKIP in this constituency.

    IIRC UKIP were ahead in the local elections either this or last year.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    edited November 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Surprising about Farage. If he can't get elected, then I suspect many of UKIP's other targets will also fail to fall.

    Can UKIP ever win a parliamentary seat when their candidate isn't a traitorous pig dog?
    QTWTAI Boston & Skegness.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Surprising about Farage. If he can't get elected, then I suspect many of UKIP's other targets will also fail to fall.

    Can UKIP ever win a parliamentary seat when their candidate isn't a traitorous pig dog?
    Carswell is going to cut a lonely figure in the next Parliament..... Sitting uncomfortably with the Labour opposition as the sole representative of the Misguided Pig-Dog Traitor Can I Come Back Yet Dave? Party
    Meanwhile, Forage will be crying all the way to the bank, with his EU allowances.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FTPT
    Patrick said:


    I can't believe they proposed it. Really. It is clearly for me the most headline worthy part of the whole Smith Commission. I hope Dave thanks them for their work and just leaves the ability to borrow out of the legislation. It is batshit crazy to let Scotland borrow independently, knowing ful lwell England will be obliged to backstop the loans. It makes final independnce a certainty in my view now. WTF were they thinking?

    Scotland is already getting borrowing powers independent of the Smith Commission under the 2012 Scotland Act.

    Given that the Scottish government under-spends its budget every year its not that note worthy.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    No shock

    @LadPolitics: Latest @LordAshcroft polling has resulted in some dramatic changes in the betting esp Thanet South & Portsmouth South odds.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    This won't do UKIP any harm in places like Doncaster North:

    "Net migration hits 260,000 in new blow for Government pledge
    Surge of 78,000 year-on-year driven by eastern European migrants after ministers admit promise to cut net migration has been 'blown off course'"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11256116/Net-migration-hits-260000-in-new-blow-for-Government-pledge.html
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,795
    I agree with Mike.

    The betting story here is that LDs are hanging tough in LD/Con marginals, but less so in LD/Lab marginals. This will make it very difficult for the Tories to win an overall majority.

    NOM looks increasingly likely. Even at 1/2, it's probably still the value bet.

    To my surprise, I find myself buying LD on the seats spreads.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    On Twitter OGH claiming the new Ashcroft poll indicates Tories going to struggle to win lots of LibDem seats. Only problem for his argument is this group of seats start at 9+% majorities and Tories still taking 2 of them on basis of this poll. Implies the 12 or 15 which would go Tory in earlier polls definitely going Tory.

    If Farage can't be ahead now after Clacton and Rochester in his chosen seat, Laura Sandys is correct, he will remain an MEP on 8th May. Carswell to be UKIP leader by June?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    No shock

    @LadPolitics: Latest @LordAshcroft polling has resulted in some dramatic changes in the betting esp Thanet South & Portsmouth South odds.

    Of course.

    Thanet South now 4-6/7-4.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2014
    Appalling numbers for the Tories in Carshalton & Wallington:

    LD 43% (-5)
    Con 23% (-14)
    UKIP 17% (+14)
    Lab 12% (+3)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    I agree with Mike.

    The betting story here is that LDs are hanging tough in LD/Con marginals, but less so in LD/Lab marginals. This will make it very difficult for the Tories to win an overall majority.

    NOM looks increasingly likely. Even at 1/2, it's probably still the value bet.

    To my surprise, I find myself buying LD on the seats spreads.

    Buying the Lib Dems was my first choice when Spin opened the market.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    AndyJS said:

    Appalling numbers for the Tories in Carshalton & Wellington:

    LD 43% (-5)
    Con 23% (-14)
    UKIP 17% (+14)
    Lab 12% (+3)

    Confirming the May local election results here and in Sutton/Cheam and the Lord A poll in the latter
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    NOM is a 90% certainty IMO. The only way a majority could happen is through a series of statistical flukes, with one party winning loads of seats with 30%.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Easterross said:

    On Twitter OGH claiming the new Ashcroft poll indicates Tories going to struggle to win lots of LibDem seats. Only problem for his argument is this group of seats start at 9+% majorities and Tories still taking 2 of them on basis of this poll. Implies the 12 or 15 which would go Tory in earlier polls definitely going Tory.

    If Farage can't be ahead now after Clacton and Rochester in his chosen seat, Laura Sandys is correct, he will remain an MEP on 8th May. Carswell to be UKIP leader by June?

    It implies nothing of the sort , stick to your ludicrous forecasts of Conservative mass gains in Scotland .
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,222
    Not wanting to doubt the figures, but can someone explain why the constituency question makes such a difference? I get why a Labour voter would vote Lib Dem (though that is questionable!), but I don't get why someone saying they'd vote Tory in a standard question would then switch to the Lib Dems in a constituency question?

    I might be being a bit thick here, but do these people understand that by voting Lib Dem instead of Tory they may prevent a Tory majority? Or do they love their local Lib Dem MP that much?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    I thought Lord A was also going to be publishing a Scotland poll, or did I imagine that?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MarkSenior said:

    AndyJS said:

    Appalling numbers for the Tories in Carshalton & Wellington:

    LD 43% (-5)
    Con 23% (-14)
    UKIP 17% (+14)
    Lab 12% (+3)

    Confirming the May local election results here and in Sutton/Cheam and the Lord A poll in the latter
    I've often thought both Sutton seats are the sort of places where UKIP takes most of its votes from Tories in contrast to other parts of the country like the south west where there's much more of an even divide.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    tlg86 said:

    Not wanting to doubt the figures, but can someone explain why the constituency question makes such a difference? I get why a Labour voter would vote Lib Dem (though that is questionable!), but I don't get why someone saying they'd vote Tory in a standard question would then switch to the Lib Dems in a constituency question?

    I might be being a bit thick here, but do these people understand that by voting Lib Dem instead of Tory they may prevent a Tory majority? Or do they love their local Lib Dem MP that much?

    Bit odd isn't it, the Labour vote share barely changes in alot of these "sticky" LD seats.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories heading for victory in North Devon, Watford and Portsmouth South with 30% of the vote.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    I agree with Mike.

    The betting story here is that LDs are hanging tough in LD/Con marginals, but less so in LD/Lab marginals. This will make it very difficult for the Tories to win an overall majority.

    NOM looks increasingly likely. Even at 1/2, it's probably still the value bet.

    To my surprise, I find myself buying LD on the seats spreads.

    Pretty much agree , tho I think Yardley , Cambridge and Bermondsey/Southwark and Cardiff Central will be LD holds against Labour .
    I am sticking with my 36-40 LD seats after next May .
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    AndyJS said:

    antifrank said:

    The Wyre Forest poll needs to be treated with caution. Lord Ashcroft has apparently not prompted for NHA (curiously, he did prompt for Plaid Cymru in Brecon & Radnorshire where Plaid have no particular history of support), so Dr Richard Taylor's personal vote in this seat may well be understated. I write as someone sitting on a 25/1 bet on UKIP in this constituency.

    IIRC UKIP were ahead in the local elections either this or last year.
    They did very well in both years. That's why I backed them at 25/1!
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 357
    Having been asked how they will vote, why do so many apparently change their minds when asked about their own constituency? When they get to the ballot box they will most likely vote for their first preference. The second question is largely bollocks. Nobody will be asking it when they get to the polling station.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I thought Lord A was also going to be publishing a Scotland poll, or did I imagine that?

    I think he's been hampered by a poor response rate.
  • michaelcollins10michaelcollins10 Posts: 24
    Am I the only one who wonders why the UKIP figures in many of these constituencies are significantly higher than the national polling?

    You would have thought that the mainstream parties might be working harder on the ground and therefore reducing their share.

    But there appears to be no evidence of this.

    In addition some of the changes between national and local intention look astonishingly large.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Mike K's 70 MPs being questioned by St Dan

    Dan Hodges‏@DPJHodges·54 secs55 seconds ago London, England
    I reckon @DouglasCarswell is the only Kipper with any chance of being an MP after 2015. And at that point he'll defect back.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    AndyJS said:

    Tories heading for victory in North Devon, Watford and Portsmouth South with 30% of the vote.

    A margin of 1-2% in North Devon and Watford does not mean heading for victory at this stage , it means in with a shout .
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Easterross said:

    On Twitter OGH claiming the new Ashcroft poll indicates Tories going to struggle to win lots of LibDem seats. Only problem for his argument is this group of seats start at 9+% majorities and Tories still taking 2 of them on basis of this poll. Implies the 12 or 15 which would go Tory in earlier polls definitely going Tory.

    If Farage can't be ahead now after Clacton and Rochester in his chosen seat, Laura Sandys is correct, he will remain an MEP on 8th May. Carswell to be UKIP leader by June?

    Yes, these polls tell me the Tories will make 7-9 gains from the Lib Dems rather than 14-16. But we'll see about the rest. These are some of the strongest Lib Dem seats.

    There wasn't much in the more marginal ones.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Mike K's 70 MPs being questioned by St Dan

    Dan Hodges‏@DPJHodges·54 secs55 seconds ago London, England
    I reckon @DouglasCarswell is the only Kipper with any chance of being an MP after 2015. And at that point he'll defect back.

    Is Dan wanting to offer evens on Boston & Skeggy ?
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Not good polling for the Tories I guess, but did they ever expect to take LD seats with majorities of 6k plus? I bet they were all former Tory seats and now most of the Lib Dem MPs are well dug in
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Eastwinger said:

    Having been asked how they will vote, why do so many apparently change their minds when asked about their own constituency? When they get to the ballot box they will most likely vote for their first preference. The second question is largely bollocks. Nobody will be asking it when they get to the polling station.

    It helps respondents do some of the thinking they haven't already done but will do before they get to cast their vote.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,789
    The really startling thing about this poll is the GIGANTIC differences between Q1 (how will you vote?) and Q2 (how will you vote, thinking about this constituency?). The differences shown previously in Tory and Labour seats were modest, and not always to the incumbent. Here, Q2 completely changes the picture.

    Which just leaves a little niggle. If people are that set on voting tactically, why don't they say so in reply to Q1? That suggests that most people are just responding without thinking about the constituency, and it's only when that aspect is prompted for that they think oh, yeah, well, if you put it like that... The LibDems still have a bit of work to do in hardening up the intention.

    Incidentally, I chatted to John Hemmings (Yardley) at the LibDem conference (we're bridge partners). He was cautiously hopeful though he said it was really impossible to be sure.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Mike K's 70 MPs being questioned by St Dan

    Dan Hodges‏@DPJHodges·54 secs55 seconds ago London, England
    I reckon @DouglasCarswell is the only Kipper with any chance of being an MP after 2015. And at that point he'll defect back.

    He can stay where he is.

    I don't want him back.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,617
    Farage 'in trouble' in Thanet South? He isn't even the sitting MP! The kipperphobia on here at times is beyond parody.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    michaelcollins10 said:

    Am I the only one who wonders why the UKIP figures in many of these constituencies are significantly higher than the national polling?

    You would have thought that the mainstream parties might be working harder on the ground and therefore reducing their share.

    But there appears to be no evidence of this.

    In addition some of the changes between national and local intention look astonishingly large.

    Not really, Ukip got 18% in Lord Ashcroft's last national poll on Monday
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Tories struggling in one of their top target seats north of the border. With Jim Murphy retiring from Westminster in May the Tories really ought to have been a shoo-in. Before Murphy's appearance in the constituency it used to reliably return thumping Tory majorities.

    East Renfrewshire - Result 2010

    Lab (Jim Murphy MP) 25,987
    Con 15,567
    LD 4,720
    SNP 4,535
    UKIP 372

    But look at Shadsy's current pricing:

    East Renfrewshire - Ladbrokes

    Lab 1/3
    SNP 5/2
    Con 20/1
    UKIP 100/1
    LD 100/1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Farage 'in trouble' in Thanet South? He isn't even the sitting MP! The kipperphobia on here at times is beyond parody.

    Hope everyone got on the Cons at 9-2 ^_~
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    RIP PD James:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-30232569
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    AndyJS said:

    Tories heading for victory in North Devon, Watford and Portsmouth South with 30% of the vote.

    Which is why the party shouldn't be too worried about national polling in the low 30s. The new 5 party politics!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Mike K's 70 MPs being questioned by St Dan

    Dan Hodges‏@DPJHodges·54 secs55 seconds ago London, England
    I reckon @DouglasCarswell is the only Kipper with any chance of being an MP after 2015. And at that point he'll defect back.

    What are the odds on a single Kipper MP ?

    20-1 or so and I'd be on it like a hooker on a phallus that emitted a brewed beverage to paraphrase Irvine Welsh.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,795
    MarkSenior said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    I agree with Mike.

    The betting story here is that LDs are hanging tough in LD/Con marginals, but less so in LD/Lab marginals. This will make it very difficult for the Tories to win an overall majority.

    NOM looks increasingly likely. Even at 1/2, it's probably still the value bet.

    To my surprise, I find myself buying LD on the seats spreads.

    Pretty much agree , tho I think Yardley , Cambridge and Bermondsey/Southwark and Cardiff Central will be LD holds against Labour .
    I am sticking with my 36-40 LD seats after next May .
    Mark, as a political tipster I have you only marginally ahead of Roger and the hapless Seth O Logue.

    But for once I agree with you! ;-)

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MarkSenior said:

    AndyJS said:

    Tories heading for victory in North Devon, Watford and Portsmouth South with 30% of the vote.

    A margin of 1-2% in North Devon and Watford does not mean heading for victory at this stage , it means in with a shout .
    So Mr Clegg has a chance to hold on then?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Pulpstar said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Farage 'in trouble' in Thanet South? He isn't even the sitting MP! The kipperphobia on here at times is beyond parody.

    Hope everyone got on the Cons at 9-2 ^_~
    No. Shadsy is too fast for me.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    JackW said:

    One important point to note if I am reading the polls correctly is that whilst the "your constituency" question is polled the candidates names are not. This will have an effect in many of these seats especially Watford.

    Well said Jack. Your money is safe.

    Would Farage's name helped or hindered UKIP figures in Thanet S?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MarkSenior said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    I agree with Mike.

    The betting story here is that LDs are hanging tough in LD/Con marginals, but less so in LD/Lab marginals. This will make it very difficult for the Tories to win an overall majority.

    NOM looks increasingly likely. Even at 1/2, it's probably still the value bet.

    To my surprise, I find myself buying LD on the seats spreads.

    Pretty much agree , tho I think Yardley , Cambridge and Bermondsey/Southwark and Cardiff Central will be LD holds against Labour .
    I am sticking with my 36-40 LD seats after next May .
    Cambridge Huppert hold is free money and is better than evens. The Labour candidate is atrocious and finished a poor 3rd last time.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    michaelcollins10 said:

    Am I the only one who wonders why the UKIP figures in many of these constituencies are significantly higher than the national polling?

    You would have thought that the mainstream parties might be working harder on the ground and therefore reducing their share.

    But there appears to be no evidence of this.

    In addition some of the changes between national and local intention look astonishingly large.

    I had a look at this a little while ago:

    http://newstonoone.blogspot.com/2014/11/reading-entrails-few-polling.html
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    NickPalmer said:

    The really startling thing about this poll is the GIGANTIC differences between Q1 (how will you vote?) and Q2 (how will you vote, thinking about this constituency?). The differences shown previously in Tory and Labour seats were modest, and not always to the incumbent. Here, Q2 completely changes the picture.

    Which just leaves a little niggle. If people are that set on voting tactically, why don't they say so in reply to Q1? That suggests that most people are just responding without thinking about the constituency, and it's only when that aspect is prompted for that they think oh, yeah, well, if you put it like that... The LibDems still have a bit of work to do in hardening up the intention.

    Incidentally, I chatted to John Hemmings (Yardley) at the LibDem conference (we're bridge partners). He was cautiously hopeful though he said it was really impossible to be sure.

    I have taken up bridge again after a 35 year gap , I play online at Bridgeclublive , really enjoying it .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Farage 'in trouble' in Thanet South? He isn't even the sitting MP! The kipperphobia on here at times is beyond parody.

    Hope everyone got on the Cons at 9-2 ^_~
    No. Shadsy is too fast for me.
    Hah Shadsy rather smartly pulled his markets whilst the polls came out.

    Hills & Paddy are your friends ^_@
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    plebgate verdict imminent...
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited November 2014
    isam said:

    UKIP in the lead in Thanet South until weighting by 2010 vote is applied

    Farage wasn't the candidate then, and UKIP got 3% of the vote Nationally in 2010. If you think that is of no significance/that he might be a drag on the UKIP vote rather than a boost for it then I guess you could back the Tories

    Exactly the same weighting adjustment was made in Lord A's Rochester poll and still it overstated UKIP by 5%.

    Dream on. You are in trouble.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,632
    MikeSmithson said:

    JackW said:

    One important point to note if I am reading the polls correctly is that whilst the "your constituency" question is polled the candidates names are not. This will have an effect in many of these seats especially Watford.

    Well said Jack. Your money is safe.

    Would Farage's name helped or hindered UKIP figures in Thanet S?

    What is your view?
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Pulpstar said:

    Have to admit John Hemmings must be doing a stunning job in Yardley.

    He's very busy round these parts, I do work in the constituency (leaflets with little or no Lib Dem branding ofc). A lot of people who don't pay much attention to politics will just notice a diligent MP putting in the hours, not a horrible Lib Dem that has propped up a Tory government
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Looking very tight in the key Con/LD battle north of the border: Berwickshire et al (Michael Moore MP, the sacked Scottish Secretary).

    LD EVS
    Con 11/10
    SNP 6/1
    UKIP 100/1
    Lab 100/1

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk - Result 2010

    LD (Michael Moore MP) 22,230
    Con 16,555
    Lab 5,003
    SNP 4,497
    UKIP 595
    Jacobite 134

    The Tories are going with the same candidate again: John Lamont MSP, the Scottish Conservative Chief Whip and Parliamentary Business Manager.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    I agree with Mike.

    The betting story here is that LDs are hanging tough in LD/Con marginals, but less so in LD/Lab marginals. This will make it very difficult for the Tories to win an overall majority.

    NOM looks increasingly likely. Even at 1/2, it's probably still the value bet.

    To my surprise, I find myself buying LD on the seats spreads.

    Pretty much agree , tho I think Yardley , Cambridge and Bermondsey/Southwark and Cardiff Central will be LD holds against Labour .
    I am sticking with my 36-40 LD seats after next May .
    Mark, as a political tipster I have you only marginally ahead of Roger and the hapless Seth O Logue.

    But for once I agree with you! ;-)

    LOL , check my record back to pb.com's first competition on here at the Cheadle by election in 2005 sadly no prize for first in those days .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    MikeSmithson said:

    JackW said:

    One important point to note if I am reading the polls correctly is that whilst the "your constituency" question is polled the candidates names are not. This will have an effect in many of these seats especially Watford.

    Well said Jack. Your money is safe.

    Would Farage's name helped or hindered UKIP figures in Thanet S?

    Both (Kind of) I think Labour will vote BOTH anti-Farage and anti-Con in Thanet South.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited November 2014
    NickPalmer said:

    The really startling thing about this poll is the GIGANTIC differences between Q1 (how will you vote?) and Q2 (how will you vote, thinking about this constituency?). The differences shown previously in Tory and Labour seats were modest, and not always to the incumbent. Here, Q2 completely changes the picture.

    Which just leaves a little niggle. If people are that set on voting tactically, why don't they say so in reply to Q1? That suggests that most people are just responding without thinking about the constituency, and it's only when that aspect is prompted for that they think oh, yeah, well, if you put it like that...

    Or they feel that the 'right' thing to do is to give a different answer.

    I'm sceptical about this whole issue - we just don't know enough to be able say definitively that Q2 is a better guide to the final result than Q1. It might be, but we can't be sure.

    Equally it is hard to know how much credence to give to the different swings in different seats. By the time you factor in statistical noise and weighting difficulties, the differences might not be very reliable at all.

    It will make for a very interesting post-mortem.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Interesting. Shadsy has just cut his UKIP price in Doncaster North (Ed Miliband MP). New prices:

    Lab 1/20 (from 1/100 this morning)
    UKIP 8/1 (from 12/1 this morning)
    Con 33/1 (from 50/1 this morning)
    LD 100/1
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    edited November 2014
    I'm prepared to call the Doncaster North poll an outlier.

    It just doesn't feel right.

    Not doubting Lord Ashcroft's integrity at all.

    But the Tories up since 2010. I know Ed is crap but still.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited November 2014
    MikeSmithson said:

    JackW said:

    One important point to note if I am reading the polls correctly is that whilst the "your constituency" question is polled the candidates names are not. This will have an effect in many of these seats especially Watford.

    Well said Jack. Your money is safe.

    Would Farage's name helped or hindered UKIP figures in Thanet S?

    Those revelling at the prospect of Farage's demise in Thanet South may still be disappointed.

    Constituents like having leaders as their MP and Farage will enjoy even greater prominence during the election and the media will focus heavily on the seat. Ukip will also pour resources into the seat. However a cross current will be tactical voting against him.

    On balance I believe Farage is favourite to win the seat.

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,795
    MarkSenior said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    I agree with Mike.

    The betting story here is that LDs are hanging tough in LD/Con marginals, but less so in LD/Lab marginals. This will make it very difficult for the Tories to win an overall majority.

    NOM looks increasingly likely. Even at 1/2, it's probably still the value bet.

    To my surprise, I find myself buying LD on the seats spreads.

    Pretty much agree , tho I think Yardley , Cambridge and Bermondsey/Southwark and Cardiff Central will be LD holds against Labour .
    I am sticking with my 36-40 LD seats after next May .
    Mark, as a political tipster I have you only marginally ahead of Roger and the hapless Seth O Logue.

    But for once I agree with you! ;-)

    LOL , check my record back to pb.com's first competition on here at the Cheadle by election in 2005 sadly no prize for first in those days .
    No prizes for having a sense of humour too, Mark!

    If there were, you'd have several by now. Well done.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    JackW said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    JackW said:

    One important point to note if I am reading the polls correctly is that whilst the "your constituency" question is polled the candidates names are not. This will have an effect in many of these seats especially Watford.

    Well said Jack. Your money is safe.

    Would Farage's name helped or hindered UKIP figures in Thanet S?

    Those revelling at the prospect of Farage's demise in Thanet South may still be disappointed.

    Constituents like having leaders as their MP and Farage will enjoy even greater prominence during the election and the media will focus heavily on the seat. Ukip will also pour resources into the seat. However a cross current will be tactical voting against him.

    On balance I believe Farage is favourite to win the seat.

    I think he'd have lost had Ms Sandys stood again.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Interesting. Shadsy has just cut his UKIP price in Doncaster North (Ed Miliband MP). New prices:

    Lab 1/20 (from 1/100 this morning)
    UKIP 8/1 (from 12/1 this morning)
    Con 33/1 (from 50/1 this morning)
    LD 100/1

    Well you can have a very bad value winner in Labour there for sure.

  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited November 2014
    MikeSmithson said:

    isam said:

    UKIP in the lead in Thanet South until weighting by 2010 vote is applied

    Farage wasn't the candidate then, and UKIP got 3% of the vote Nationally in 2010. If you think that is of no significance/that he might be a drag on the UKIP vote rather than a boost for it then I guess you could back the Tories

    Exactly the same weighting adjustment was made in Lord A's Rochester poll and still it overstated UKIP by 5%.

    Dream on. You are in trouble.

    I do agree with you Mike on this (and actually on much). I've always thought UKIP are flattering to deceive under FPTP and that the LibDems will outperform current expectations when it comes to seats: they always do. My bet with Isam that LD will win 4x the seats of UKIP looks good from this.

    However, I still want to take all this with a bit of a pinch of salt. I'd like to see Ashcroft repeat the same polling month on month so we have a point of reference. Then we can spot trends. This feels too much like pinning a tail on the donkey.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,632
    MikeSmithson said:

    isam said:

    UKIP in the lead in Thanet South until weighting by 2010 vote is applied

    Farage wasn't the candidate then, and UKIP got 3% of the vote Nationally in 2010. If you think that is of no significance/that he might be a drag on the UKIP vote rather than a boost for it then I guess you could back the Tories

    Exactly the same weighting adjustment was made in Lord A's Rochester poll and still it overstated UKIP by 5%.

    Dream on. You are in trouble.

    Ah Mike. So aggressive when it comes to UKIP

    What are the changes from the last Lord Ashcroft poll of the constituency?
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    I'd vote Tory in Thanet South.
  • GarethofthevaleGarethofthevale Posts: 503
    Interesting.

    - Clegg down 22% in his own constituency with Lab up 12%. Might need to launch a charm offensive on the Hallam Tories to tactically vote for him
    - Miliband's score is hardly a ringing endorsement - down 7% on 2010. Must give UKIP hope in the other 2 Doncaster seats, which are better for them
    - Farage will be disappointed, although hasn't been the candidate that long. Will need to work the seat hard in the run up to the GE
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    TGOHF said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    I agree with Mike.

    The betting story here is that LDs are hanging tough in LD/Con marginals, but less so in LD/Lab marginals. This will make it very difficult for the Tories to win an overall majority.

    NOM looks increasingly likely. Even at 1/2, it's probably still the value bet.

    To my surprise, I find myself buying LD on the seats spreads.

    Pretty much agree , tho I think Yardley , Cambridge and Bermondsey/Southwark and Cardiff Central will be LD holds against Labour .
    I am sticking with my 36-40 LD seats after next May .
    Cambridge Huppert hold is free money and is better than evens. The Labour candidate is atrocious and finished a poor 3rd last time.
    I'm sold.

    Cambridge isn't the north of England, and Huppert seems like the sort of MP red liberals will have no problem at all voting for. In addition yes I note the Labour bloke finished behind the Cons last time...

    £13 @ 5-4 and £7 @ 11-10 for me.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,795
    BenM said:

    I'd vote Tory in Thanet South.

    That means you'd be voting for an ex-Kipper!
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 357
    When you get to the polling station they don't ask you question 2. Those who are going to vote tactically will already know that so why would they then answer question 1 differently. It's almost as if some of those polled feel they are being asked to give a different answer.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Surprising about Farage. If he can't get elected, then I suspect many of UKIP's other targets will also fail to fall.

    Can UKIP ever win a parliamentary seat when their candidate isn't a traitorous pig dog?
    Probably not. They have yet to win any seat in their own candidate's merits.

    I can certainly envisage Carswell returning to the Conservative fold.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,320
    edited November 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Mike K's 70 MPs being questioned by St Dan

    Dan Hodges‏@DPJHodges·54 secs55 seconds ago London, England
    I reckon @DouglasCarswell is the only Kipper with any chance of being an MP after 2015. And at that point he'll defect back.

    He can stay where he is.

    I don't want him back.
    Well exactly. If his performance hitherto and especially at PMQ is anything to go by I would prefer my PPCs and MPs to have at least some kind of backbone.

    Edit: I got the wrong Kipper MP. My bad and it was a 50:50 call. Still, they can keep them both.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JackW said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    JackW said:

    One important point to note if I am reading the polls correctly is that whilst the "your constituency" question is polled the candidates names are not. This will have an effect in many of these seats especially Watford.

    Well said Jack. Your money is safe.

    Would Farage's name helped or hindered UKIP figures in Thanet S?

    Those revelling at the prospect of Farage's demise in Thanet South may still be disappointed.

    Constituents like having leaders as their MP and Farage will enjoy even greater prominence during the election and the media will focus heavily on the seat. Ukip will also pour resources into the seat. However a cross current will be tactical voting against him.

    On balance I believe Farage is favourite to win the seat.

    I think he'd have lost had Ms Sandys stood again.
    Possibly.

    However with constituency betting it is essential not to hostility toward an individual or party cloud ones judgement of the reality on the ground. Also there's little doubt Farage would add to the gayety of the HoC.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,224
    Eastwinger said:

    When you get to the polling station they don't ask you question 2. Those who are going to vote tactically will already know that so why would they then answer question 1 differently. It's almost as if some of those polled feel they are being asked to give a different answer.

    But in the polling station, you're not asked which party, you are presented with a full list of candidate names, so question 2 is perhaps closer to that. (Although I agree that having two questions may encourage people to give different answers to them, exaggerating any effect.)
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