politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The ComRes marginals’ poll would be a lot more valuable if

Charles said:

Hah!

edit: how did I beat @RobD when he announced the new thread on the last one?

Where's the fun in being first all the time

RobD said:

Charles said:

Hah!

edit: how did I beat @RobD when he announced the new thread on the last one?

Where's the fun in being first all the time

I suppose your partner might get grumpy after a while

As an aside, I'm planning to be in SF 12-15 January. It's a crazy time of year, but are you up for a drink?

felix said:

Funny how things change. Last week there was talk of an Tory polling collapse - now they're back in the lead with YG. The message seems to be to cut down on the hyperbole until clear patterns emerge.

There is a clear pattern. Declining Labour VI, stagnant Conservative VI, rising UKIP VI!

http://electionsetc.com/2014/10/24/after-a-year-of-forecasting-whats-changed/

Charles said:

RobD said:

Charles said:

Hah!

edit: how did I beat @RobD when he announced the new thread on the last one?

Where's the fun in being first all the time

I suppose your partner might get grumpy after a while

As an aside, I'm planning to be in SF 12-15 January. It's a crazy time of year, but are you up for a drink?

Unfortunately, I think I'm going to be in Seattle that week following a meeting I'm going to there, and then I head down to Chile for a few weeks. I'm not sure why I pay rent on my apartment really! Raincheck?

RobD said:

Charles said:

RobD said:

Charles said:

Hah!

edit: how did I beat @RobD when he announced the new thread on the last one?

Where's the fun in being first all the time

I suppose your partner might get grumpy after a while

As an aside, I'm planning to be in SF 12-15 January. It's a crazy time of year, but are you up for a drink?

Unfortunately, I think I'm going to be in Seattle that week following a meeting I'm going to there, and then I head down to Chile for a few weeks. I'm not sure why I pay rent on my apartment really! Raincheck?

Sure - am in SF every year in the second full week.

Let me know if you are in SoCal at all - I am there from mid December through the New Year

Financier said:

FPT

This is an economic blog for fellow academia which is in effect a political blog and should be ignored for what it is.

Nah, I think you have it 100% the wrong way round.

This is a *political* blog, for laymen, dressed up as an economic blog

felix said:

Funny how things change. Last week there was talk of an Tory polling collapse - now they're back in the lead with YG. The message seems to be to cut down on the hyperbole until clear patterns emerge.

I certainly expected Rochester to have some impact upon the polls, but this doesn't seem to have happened.

The only significant recent trend is that Labour lost support following their conference, and have not regained it, whereas the Tories gained support but have not maintained it.

http://www.mediafire.com/view/2zwt71e758vtimh/YouGov polls 12 months to 27 November 2014.jpg#

Indigo said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/11256612/Juncker-will-have-a-difficult-job-waking-Europe-from-its-torpor.html

At its heart is a new £15bn fund to raise private cash in the capital markets which will then be invested in £250bn of infrastructure projects.Although only a small proportion will come directly from EU funds, taxpayers would underwrite the risk. Given the scale of the Eurozone’s problems, this is a drop in the bucket. Moreover, it is a characteristically clunky, dirigiste approach made necessary by the fact that national governments are constrained through their membership of the single currency from taking their own fiscal and monetary measures.

What could possibly go wrong, seems the EU has learned nothing from "subprime"

It does seem as if the EU and Eurozone are actively striving to fail. It seems that the only way that its malaise can be fixed is through much stronger integration and central control.

That's something I don't want the UK to be part of, and as the EU is incapable of having two speeds, I'm sadly starting to tip off the fence towards BOO. The only problem is I'm not particularly fond of the inhabitants lurking in the unkempt long grass on that side of the fence ...

audreyanne said:

felix said:

Funny how things change. Last week there was talk of an Tory polling collapse - now they're back in the lead with YG. The message seems to be to cut down on the hyperbole until clear patterns emerge.

I'd like to see a weekly polling round up instead of this breathless, panicky, reaction to every poll that risks seeing pb.com blown hither and thither at the slightest sub-sample.

You are still fairly new around these parts aren't you :-)

fitalass said:

@Carnyx is spinning like a windmill in a full blown gale when he suggests either a sea-change in Scottish Politics, or that the National is somehow not uncritical of the SNP either! This newspaper is about as balanced as Carynyx's favourite SNP site 'Wings over Scotland' or the journalist Ian McWhirter, who he often tries to portray as 'balanced' in the Indy Referendum!!
Twitter
Iain Macwhirter @iainmacwhirter · Nov 23
immensely excited about first new Scottish daily paper in twenty years. The National. Out tomorrow. http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/tomorrow-the-national-a-new-daily-paper-for-scotland.25941314 …

Mr Eugenides @Mr_Eugenides · 4h 4 hours ago
“@ScotNational: Just finished issue number 4 … And here it is . ” >Yep. Looks like an SNP press officer’s wet dream.

Severin Carrell @severincarrell · Nov 24
The National launch day review: a McPravda for Scotland’s separatists? asks @libby_brooks http://gu.com/p/43tvk/tw @ScotNational #indyref

And from a Yes supporter........
Alasdair Bremner @ADBremner · Nov 25
I can see why @ScotNational is targeting Yes base, to establish itself, but it probably doesn't need to do it so full on as it is.

Carnyx said:

dr_spyn said:

@Carnyx Found an Egg Jim Murphy Facebook community, I am pleased to report that his non support for Palestine may result in some more broken eggs.

I couldn't possibly comment - definitely not my fight or my pooch therein. But, like his relatively right wing policies (till yesterday, as far as tax is concerned), it may be to do with the demographics of his constituency.

Of course, Mr Salmond will be blamed (again) for any eggs ...

In other news, the new Scottish newspaper The National is being printed with twice the print un and seems to be about third best selling in Scotland. Another indication of a sea-change in Scottish politics, and it's not uncritical of the SNP either.

FPT:

You don't say if you have bought and read it. With the recent exception of the Sunday Herald, 100% of the media in Scotland is pro-union, certainly in news coverage. Anything is an improvement on that. And we'll see how the National settles down. Much of its apparent pro-indy slant is sheer contrast with the other papers - for instance an "X Accused" headline which wasn't about the SNP.

But you are missing the real point - which is that the news companies are beginning to realise that they have to shift.

And I notice that like many on the No side you are equating the SNP with other Yes campaigners such as Wings. They are not the same and if you think they are you are missing some very important subtleties. And Wings is very useful because of the way in which he links to other sites and sources, above all the ones he doesn't agree with. When I post him here it's as much for that as for anything else.

OT

It is interesting to read BritvIc's (soft drinks) annual statement for 2014 (http://www.britvic.com/media-centre/financial-news/2014/26-11-2014.aspx).

With a large UK market share and seeing increasing retail price competition in the UK, they are expanding their push into USA, India and Australia and gaining useful market share. Whilst they have operations in Ireland and France, their international focus in now outside of the EU.

It seems to be shame that many other British companies are not following this example, and even moreso that our Europhile politicians do not see that there are more opportunities outside the EU than inside it.

Times Red Box poll: 55% want "more redistribution"; specifically, 71% want the minimum wage increased, and 54% want the top rate of income tax to be 50% or higher. On the other hand, only 23% want higher benefits and 46% want lower benefits.

Mostly this is just "I want other people to pay more" but the 71% on the minimum wage (which most people don't get) is different - combined with the low support for "benefits", this probably reflects a general mood that working should pay more at the lower rates and not working should pay less.

Not commenting on any of that - just interesting to see the mood.

Indigo said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/11256657/Private-schools-only-look-after-their-own.html

More "private schools are naughty and wicked" rantings from Dr The Hon Tristam Hunt

Businesses (even non-profit organisations) look after their clients.

Easterross said:

Morning all and on thread poor Mike has had over 12 hours of ribbing for his silly Tory collapse in England thread on Monday.

We now have a UNS of around 4 to 4.5% (subject to Ashcroft blowing that away later today in one direction or the other) from Con to Lab whereas a couple of months ago it was 5.5% and in the summer 6.5%. Last night I was looking at old YouGov polls and the one which struck me was in October 2012 when it was a Lab lead of 14% Lab 45 Con 31.

Today SLAB is realising that the SNP and Tories have outflanked them over Scotland. Once again Gordon Brown, saviour of the universe has basically fecked his own party with his scheming and the promise! What happens to SLAB if in Scotland people who support the Union support the Unionist party i.e. the Tories and those who don't support the SNP? Next May is looking like it could get very bloody for SLAB.

Well, well. To think how I was derided when I pointed out that the Unionists were refighting indyref and that Scottish politics was polarising between SNP and Tories!

Trading update....

As some may recall my investments in specialist annuity providers has been one of my more unsuccessful punts, at one stage down £10k.... having averaged down, I am on the cusp of break-even again in one of the stocks and only £2k down in the other.

At this rate a decent profit seems assured in 2072...

Financier said:

FPT

hucks67 said:

Current economics. This link to a blog is well worth reading.

http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/understanding-george-osborne.html?spref=tw

Charles replied:

But a very once sided view.

The most interesting problem, IMHO, is the crowding out effect that I believe exists in parts of the UK.

@Charles

I agree - he omits balance of payments, omits productivity, omits effects of immigration, omits changing employment patterns, omits effects of global wage levels and omits rise of far East technology.

This is an economic blog for fellow academia which is in effect a political blog and should be ignored for what it is.

There is nevertheless a significant and learned view that the UK shouldn't have adopted austerity in 2010 because fears of the markets were overblown (this often, of course, with 20:20 hindsight) and we need only look towards the US, likewise a currency-issuing economy, to see that an expansionary fiscal policy was or might have been the right course.

My observations:

1) in 2010 there were very real fears about markets' reaction to fiscal profligacy (not to say the fears were either well- or unfounded but they were real). I can understand how an incoming chancellor would have shied away from immediate "investment" for fear that he would be the CoE that brought significant downgrade to the UK gilt market.

2) In that article Simon Wren-Lewis ascribes a political motivation to GO in wanting to shrink the state but doesn't accept the equal possibility of political motivation for Lab wanting to expand it. Where GO and the Cons might see a smaller state as more desirable (I agree with them), in the same way might does EdB and Lab (they almost certainly do) see a larger public sector as a "better" social and economic model which is of course a political desire.

Easterross said:

Morning all and on thread poor Mike has had over 12 hours of ribbing for his silly Tory collapse in England thread on Monday.

We now have a UNS of around 4 to 4.5% (subject to Ashcroft blowing that away later today in one direction or the other) from Con to Lab whereas a couple of months ago it was 5.5% and in the summer 6.5%. Last night I was looking at old YouGov polls and the one which struck me was in October 2012 when it was a Lab lead of 14% Lab 45 Con 31.

Today SLAB is realising that the SNP and Tories have outflanked them over Scotland. Once again Gordon Brown, saviour of the universe has basically fecked his own party with his scheming and the promise! What happens to SLAB if in Scotland people who support the Union support the Unionist party i.e. the Tories and those who don't support the SNP? Next May is looking like it could get very bloody for SLAB.

So, how many seats do you think the Tories will win in Scotland. I say 0 (zero), you say?

Nutter...

Kirkup interesting on Tory modernisation:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11254086/Racing-Ukip-back-to-the-1950s-is-doing-the-Tories-permanent-damage.html?WT.mc_id=e_3714817&WT.tsrc=email&etype=politics&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_PAM_New_2014_11_27&utm_campaign=3714817

Socrates said:

Financier said:

OT

It is interesting to read BritvIc's (soft drinks) annual statement for 2014 (http://www.britvic.com/media-centre/financial-news/2014/26-11-2014.aspx).

With a large UK market share and seeing increasing retail price competition in the UK, they are expanding their push into USA, India and Australia and gaining useful market share. Whilst they have operations in Ireland and France, their international focus in now outside of the EU.

It seems to be shame that many other British companies are not following this example, and even moreso that our Europhile politicians do not see that there are more opportunities outside the EU than inside it.

We'd encourage a lot more people to do it if we left the EU and negotiated our own trade agreements with these countries, which could reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers.

I suspect it's more a question of doing both or neither. I remember when I was an MP going to see the management of a major local firm and asking them about their export strategy in Europe - did they think the Euro was helpful or harmful? They looked at each other and shrugged - "We aren't really focused on the export market". Not outside the EU, not inside the EU, they apparently just weren't bothered.

A couple of years later, they were taken over by a venture capital firm with the explicit goal of opening up foreign markets. The general tendency at the time was to think that venture capital takeovers were Bad Things, but I thought it might be a classic example of a dozily-managed company that might benefit from a shake-up. Not every capitalist move is a bad thing!

Tragic news regarding Phil Hughes. It's hard to believe he has died.

He will be remembered fondly in cricket. On his test debut the owner of the pub in his local village said he'd give out a certain amount of free beer for every run he scored and he went out there - aged just 19 or 20 I think, I remember watching it - and made a big century against the South Africans.

He was a player who put test cricket first too, choosing not to play T20 in order to work on his technique and become a great test cricketer. He would've been back in the test side next week.

It's a very, very sad day for sport.

Nice little piece here from Al Beeb on immigration from Romania and Bulgaria.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30222812

Life is full of ironies. The Romanian immigrant in the profile was met at the airport by two MPs. Keith Vaz (the man is everywhere) and none other than Mr Mark Reckless!

Does his current boss know about this?

If the marginals are polling at 39% Lab, 31% Con, then you'd expect a convincing Labour majority overall.

With an 18% UKIP showing too, could we expect the decimation of the Tory Party to a rump and an undeserved Labour landslide?

Either way, the Tories and DC are toast. Ed Miliband will be our next PM, and possibly for far longer than anyone ever conceived possible.

Ninoinoz said:

Socrates said:

MikeK said:

Socrates said:

A new Islamist political party has been founded in the Netherlands, splitting from the Labour Party:

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4910/the-netherlands-newest-accomplishment

The muslims in Holland now feel strong enough to to come out of hiding from under their Labour Party blanket. The same will probably happen here in a year or two. The Respect party was something of an attempt to make a mass muslim centred party here in the UK, but has so far failed to tempt muslims embedded in other parties to participate.

The Dutch have made the same mistakes we have. Their mentality of "tolerance" has been applied even to those that are intolerant and not integrating. The result is segregation socially, and now, apparently, politically. Will the left be happy with themselves when we have an Islamist parliamentary party in the UK, supporting bans on abortion, the revocation of gay marriage, and second class status for women? Left-wingers usually claim it's just a matter of time, and integration will happen. Well, please show me one example of a country that has had a large Muslim minority and has successfully integrated them fully, or even mostly.

Ban on abortion? Revocation of gay "marriage"?

Where do I put my cross on the ballot paper?

A perfect example of how extremist Christians criticising extremist Muslims is laughable. I look forward to the day when neither religion has any sway over British politics.

Bob__Sykes said:

If the marginals are polling at 39% Lab, 31% Con, then you'd expect a convincing Labour majority overall.

With an 18% UKIP showing too, could we expect the decimation of the Tory Party to a rump and an undeserved Labour landslide?

Either way, the Tories and DC are toast. Ed Miliband will be our next PM, and possibly for far longer than anyone ever conceived possible.

Lab are 1% behind in yougov poll with 6 months of polling deterioration to come.

One of the biggest days for politics in England. The devolution of income tax to Scotland is probably a materstroke by Cameron. No more can Labour use Scottish MPs to vote through a 50% tax rate. For the Scots they face a Hobsons choice. If they put through a 50% tax rate then many top rate income tax payers, including myself, will just switch their residency to England. However if they set the rates low then they will have to cut welfare.

I suggest that the Tories will probably win 2 or 3 MPs in Scotland. The SNP have moved to the left and UKIP are no major force leaving areas such as Pentlands a prime target. It may be a good time for Jim Murphy to become a MSP as he may lose his seat as well to the Tories as his Labour vote defects to the SNP.

audreyanne said:

MikeK said:

Socrates said:

MikeK said:

Socrates said:

A new Islamist political party has been founded in the Netherlands, splitting from the Labour Party:

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4910/the-netherlands-newest-accomplishment

The muslims in Holland now feel strong enough to to come out of hiding from under their Labour Party blanket. The same will probably happen here in a year or two. The Respect party was something of an attempt to make a mass muslim centred party here in the UK, but has so far failed to tempt muslims embedded in other parties to participate.

The Dutch have made the same mistakes we have. Their mentality of "tolerance" has been applied even to those that are intolerant and not integrating. The result is segregation socially, and now, apparently, politically. Will the left be happy with themselves when we have an Islamist parliamentary party in the UK, supporting bans on abortion, the revocation of gay marriage, and second class status for women? Left-wingers usually claim it's just a matter of time, and integration will happen. Well, please show me one example of a country that has had a large Muslim minority and has successfully integrated them fully, or even mostly.

I'm afraid that the only things Politically/Religiously* organised Muslims want is total separation for themselves, first; then later, total control of the body politic that they inhabit.

And I'm amazed and not a little bewildered that other normally good and sane people just don't get it.

*Politically/Religiously = in Islam there is no difference.

I'm afraid that's ignorant nonsense. I could rip your argument to shreds on several counts, but you could start learning from your comment 'Muslims want,' as if the followers are a homogenous lump rather than a disparate faith comprising many cultures and countries. Even a political analysis will show you how 'Muslim' is fighting 'Muslim' in a kaleidoscope of contradiction. I wonder if you have ever really studied Islam. Do you even know that 80% of Muslims are non-Arabic?

I have many Muslim friends, most of whom are British Muslims, who would not identify themselves with your remarks and who do not see themselves as political. They follow the prescribed prayers and try to lead good lives, whilst loving this country. That there are a significantly vocal minority, sometimes in positions of leadership, is equally beyond dispute.

I could go on but there's not much point. My hopes of educating some of the right-wingers on pb.com about Islam are very slim.

But, you do seem to have a very rose-tinted view of Islam.

TGOHF said:

Can we deduce from the lack of outrage from Nats that they are reasonably satisfied with the Smith Commission ?

Remember it would never happen - just like the referendum....

Seriously? You know the Nats never miss an opportunity to feel hard done by....

Nicola sturgeon re-tweeted: .@JohnSwinney tells @BBCNews new powers welcome but agreement doesn't fulfill the expectations of the people of Scotland #smithcommission

Blair Mcdougall tweeted: Sadly predictable response from SNP that today's powers don't meet the vow simply not credible. These powers far exceed it and they know it.

@Hamiltonace Are you in favour of marijuana legalisation ?

BenM said:

260,000 net migration in year to June 2014. Up from 182,000 prior.

Great for the economy.

So, you're saying the economy is in good shape, after all?