Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The ComRes marginals’ poll would be a lot more valuable if
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The ComRes marginals’ poll would be a lot more valuable if there had been a 2 stage voting question
I was tied up last night when the ComRes/ITV online marginals poll was published as well as the latest YouGov which has the Tories back with a 1% lead.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
edit: how did I beat @RobD when he announced the new thread on the last one?
This would apply at any time but late November through January are not great times for polling anyway. People are not thinking politics.
I'd like to see a weekly polling round up instead of this breathless, panicky, reaction to every poll that risks seeing pb.com blown hither and thither at the slightest sub-sample. A greater degree of circumspection and watching trends would enhance us.
As an aside, I'm planning to be in SF 12-15 January. It's a crazy time of year, but are you up for a drink?
Aschroft, at least, provides a large volume of data
http://electionsetc.com/2014/10/24/after-a-year-of-forecasting-whats-changed/
hucks67 said:
Current economics. This link to a blog is well worth reading.
http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/understanding-george-osborne.html?spref=tw
Charles replied:
But a very once sided view.
The most interesting problem, IMHO, is the crowding out effect that I believe exists in parts of the UK.
@Charles
I agree - he omits balance of payments, omits productivity, omits effects of immigration, omits changing employment patterns, omits effects of global wage levels and omits rise of far East technology.
This is an economic blog for fellow academia which is in effect a political blog and should be ignored for what it is.
Let me know if you are in SoCal at all - I am there from mid December through the New Year
This is a *political* blog, for laymen, dressed up as an economic blog
The only significant recent trend is that Labour lost support following their conference, and have not regained it, whereas the Tories gained support but have not maintained it.
http://www.mediafire.com/view/2zwt71e758vtimh/YouGov polls 12 months to 27 November 2014.jpg#
More "private schools are naughty and wicked" rantings from Dr The Hon Tristam Hunt
It does seem as if the EU and Eurozone are actively striving to fail. It seems that the only way that its malaise can be fixed is through much stronger integration and central control.
That's something I don't want the UK to be part of, and as the EU is incapable of having two speeds, I'm sadly starting to tip off the fence towards BOO. The only problem is I'm not particularly fond of the inhabitants lurking in the unkempt long grass on that side of the fence ...
Ask Alistair Darling.
You don't say if you have bought and read it. With the recent exception of the Sunday Herald, 100% of the media in Scotland is pro-union, certainly in news coverage. Anything is an improvement on that. And we'll see how the National settles down. Much of its apparent pro-indy slant is sheer contrast with the other papers - for instance an "X Accused" headline which wasn't about the SNP.
But you are missing the real point - which is that the news companies are beginning to realise that they have to shift.
And I notice that like many on the No side you are equating the SNP with other Yes campaigners such as Wings. They are not the same and if you think they are you are missing some very important subtleties. And Wings is very useful because of the way in which he links to other sites and sources, above all the ones he doesn't agree with. When I post him here it's as much for that as for anything else.
Quite simple for an organisation whose accounts have not passed the auditors red pen for years and years.
A combination of consistently ignored fraud, massive inefficiency and total lack of competence. Also so now structured that the executive is running the show instead of the members. Like Oliver Twist they just ask for more and more each year. Unlike Oliver Twist they are all on huge salaries, expenses and pensions. It is a self-feeding frenzy that has become ridiculous.
Cameron should ignore all requests for extra funding, until the EU puts their own house in economic order and reduces costs to be compatible with the economic times.
Presumably it will be around six billion a year after the rebate. It's still a ludicrous amount, and shows how Cameron's deal to "cap" the budget was nothing of the sort. They just spend what they want and hand us the bill afterwards.
And this is a tragedy for Scotland - as they'll need a currency.
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4910/the-netherlands-newest-accomplishment
We now have a UNS of around 4 to 4.5% (subject to Ashcroft blowing that away later today in one direction or the other) from Con to Lab whereas a couple of months ago it was 5.5% and in the summer 6.5%. Last night I was looking at old YouGov polls and the one which struck me was in October 2012 when it was a Lab lead of 14% Lab 45 Con 31.
Today SLAB is realising that the SNP and Tories have outflanked them over Scotland. Once again Gordon Brown, saviour of the universe has basically fecked his own party with his scheming and the promise! What happens to SLAB if in Scotland people who support the Union support the Unionist party i.e. the Tories and those who don't support the SNP? Next May is looking like it could get very bloody for SLAB.
It is interesting to read BritvIc's (soft drinks) annual statement for 2014 (http://www.britvic.com/media-centre/financial-news/2014/26-11-2014.aspx).
With a large UK market share and seeing increasing retail price competition in the UK, they are expanding their push into USA, India and Australia and gaining useful market share. Whilst they have operations in Ireland and France, their international focus in now outside of the EU.
It seems to be shame that many other British companies are not following this example, and even moreso that our Europhile politicians do not see that there are more opportunities outside the EU than inside it.
Mostly this is just "I want other people to pay more" but the 71% on the minimum wage (which most people don't get) is different - combined with the low support for "benefits", this probably reflects a general mood that working should pay more at the lower rates and not working should pay less.
Not commenting on any of that - just interesting to see the mood.
Income tax decided in Scotland... so are Scottish MPs going to be able to vote on English income tax?
If only someone with a wiffle stick and lacey sleeves had predicted this.
Mr. Patrick, an English Parliament is the only rational option at this stage. Otherwise we have a divided Westminster Parliament (either Scottish MPs get unfair powers or they vote on very little) and continue the march towards separation.
As some may recall my investments in specialist annuity providers has been one of my more unsuccessful punts, at one stage down £10k.... having averaged down, I am on the cusp of break-even again in one of the stocks and only £2k down in the other.
At this rate a decent profit seems assured in 2072...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/autumn-statement/11256784/George-Osbornes-gimmicks-prove-he-is-a-true-disciple-of-Gordon-Brown.html
Mr. Scrapheap, glad to hear you are no longer as exposed as you once were.
My observations:
1) in 2010 there were very real fears about markets' reaction to fiscal profligacy (not to say the fears were either well- or unfounded but they were real). I can understand how an incoming chancellor would have shied away from immediate "investment" for fear that he would be the CoE that brought significant downgrade to the UK gilt market.
2) In that article Simon Wren-Lewis ascribes a political motivation to GO in wanting to shrink the state but doesn't accept the equal possibility of political motivation for Lab wanting to expand it. Where GO and the Cons might see a smaller state as more desirable (I agree with them), in the same way might does EdB and Lab (they almost certainly do) see a larger public sector as a "better" social and economic model which is of course a political desire.
Nutter...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11254086/Racing-Ukip-back-to-the-1950s-is-doing-the-Tories-permanent-damage.html?WT.mc_id=e_3714817&WT.tsrc=email&etype=politics&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_PAM_New_2014_11_27&utm_campaign=3714817
It could even be a rare opportunity for Clegg to emerge with some credit, if he backed the measure.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Palmer, what's your view on whether (if Scotland gains income tax powers) Scottish MPs should be able to vote on English income tax?
A couple of years later, they were taken over by a venture capital firm with the explicit goal of opening up foreign markets. The general tendency at the time was to think that venture capital takeovers were Bad Things, but I thought it might be a classic example of a dozily-managed company that might benefit from a shake-up. Not every capitalist move is a bad thing!
He will be remembered fondly in cricket. On his test debut the owner of the pub in his local village said he'd give out a certain amount of free beer for every run he scored and he went out there - aged just 19 or 20 I think, I remember watching it - and made a big century against the South Africans.
He was a player who put test cricket first too, choosing not to play T20 in order to work on his technique and become a great test cricketer. He would've been back in the test side next week.
It's a very, very sad day for sport.
I wonder if UK Labour would still be son keen on importing voters if that came to pass?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30222812
Life is full of ironies. The Romanian immigrant in the profile was met at the airport by two MPs. Keith Vaz (the man is everywhere) and none other than Mr Mark Reckless!
Does his current boss know about this?
And I'm amazed and not a little bewildered that other normally good and sane people just don't get it.
*Politically/Religiously = in Islam there is no difference.
There might have been very good reasons why they didn't want to risk massive exposure to export markets.
Of course you, as an MP, knew the business and their model intimately enough to call them dozy ...
Where do I put my cross on the ballot paper?
Remember it would never happen - just like the referendum....
I have many Muslim friends, most of whom are British Muslims, who would not identify themselves with your remarks and who do not see themselves as political. They follow the prescribed prayers and try to lead good lives, whilst loving this country. That there are a significantly vocal minority, sometimes in positions of leadership, is equally beyond dispute.
I could go on but there's not much point. My hopes of educating some of the right-wingers on pb.com about Islam are very slim.
With an 18% UKIP showing too, could we expect the decimation of the Tory Party to a rump and an undeserved Labour landslide?
Either way, the Tories and DC are toast. Ed Miliband will be our next PM, and possibly for far longer than anyone ever conceived possible.
Should be some pump supermarket price wars soon.
As for Islamic schools, they are free to found them as the other religions are and free to practise and promulgate their religion within them.
UKIP won't do anything about them, there are simply too many religious members in that party. However, Grammar schools will mitigate their growth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnJBW49afzg#t=136
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/nov/27/immigration-eu-figures-uk-impossible-target-teresa-may
But then Cammo's morning motto must be to tell at least ten lies before breakfast.
Also, it would help if the political parties actually had a political ideology, rather than vote for me because "I would be rather good at it".
Great for the economy.
http://www.charlotteahenry.com/nigel-farages-local-party-mistake-westminster-cathedral-for-a-mosque/
"Nigel Farage’s local party mistake Westminster Cathedral for a mosque"
For the past 5 years we've had the farce of a Government owned "private" company running the franchise on an emergency basis. I don't know whether there's any truth in the RMT claims that this has produced £1bn a year for public coffers, that sounds very dodgy to me, but it cannot be said to be a "privatisation" or "sell off".
I suggest that the Tories will probably win 2 or 3 MPs in Scotland. The SNP have moved to the left and UKIP are no major force leaving areas such as Pentlands a prime target. It may be a good time for Jim Murphy to become a MSP as he may lose his seat as well to the Tories as his Labour vote defects to the SNP.
No 10 promises plans for English votes on English laws before Christmas: @BBCNormanS, saying Smith deal "hugely difficult" for Ed Miliband
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-30223348
Fine. As long as Scots MPs don't vote on English income tax.
I'm sure that there are plenty of individually fine muslims around.
Remember the "No Buts, No ifs" pledge.
I know. I don't understand it either.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-buried-bad-news-immigration-report-9885734.html
I'd like some of what you're smoking.
Nicola sturgeon re-tweeted: .@JohnSwinney tells @BBCNews new powers welcome but agreement doesn't fulfill the expectations of the people of Scotland #smithcommission
Blair Mcdougall tweeted: Sadly predictable response from SNP that today's powers don't meet the vow simply not credible. These powers far exceed it and they know it.
Edit: BUT he has to survive one more year as an MP, unless some MSP throws in the towel. Yet most Labour MSPs are List MSPs and no use for that, and the few who won constituency seats are not to be lightly thrown away (as well as losing their leaving benefits if they resign early).
Cameron's big EU speech needs to advocate a points system for EU immigration. The fallback option of an emergency brake isn't going to be enough.
Of course not - remember Cameron would never allow an Indy ref...
There must be a name for such a syndrome...