Only 17% of Americans expect Trump to serve time – politicalbetting.com

Daveyboy1961 said:

Omnium said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Omnium said:

stodge said:

Omnium said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Muesli said:

FPT

AlsoLei said:

Stuartinromford said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SouthamObserver said:

New We Think poll (30th and 31st May fieldwork)

🔴 Lab 46% (-1)
🔵 Con 21% (-1)
⚪ Ref 13% (+1)
🟠 LD 8% (NC)
🟢 Green 6% (NC)
🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1796542301105233925

Broken, sleazy Labour and Tories on the slide!

No, it was Ed Davey on the slide.

And he seemed to be having a lovely day out. I don't think Rishi or Keir would have managed that.

And he's having another lovely day today, whilst talking about his free school meals policy:

Sir Ed looks like the only one of the main party leaders who’s actually enjoying the campaign. I’ve not seen the photo of him on a slide but I’ll assume it’s not Mannionesque but in the same vein as the paddle boarding, the cycling and this school baking photo. Good. This election desperately needs some levity because it’s been duller than one any of Sean’s dribbling travelogues so far.

I suspect Ed's target this year is to increase the number of seats obtained, exploit the local government base and improve local face recognition and I suspect he thinks he's meeting it, and so therefore is quite happy. The Swinson strategy is not the way forward here.

The over-enthusiasm doesn't worry you?

No, it only "bothers" those people who want a stick with which to beat Ed Davey.

As I've said elsewhere, for the vast majority of voters, what they see of Ed Davey will be the extent of the LD campaigning in their seat. It's the 50-75 seats where there is serious local campaigning which matter to the party.

As an aside, none of the parties is fighting a national campaign - my guess is the Conservatives and Labour are actively working 200 seats each, the LDs 50-75, the Greens 10, Reform 3-5. In East Ham for example, almost noting will happen - we will get a Labour leaflet but that's all.

Anecdotally, I was handed ny first GE leaflet outside Mornington Crescent tube station by a campaigner for Andrew Feinstein who is standing as an Independent in the Holborn & St Pancras constituency.

It makes me cringe, but fair enough.

you have a high cringe bar, (or is it a low one?)

I just want to like the LDs and I can't.

we're used to it...

And I'd respect that if the LDs stood for some great thing. They don't though. The LDs great talent over the last few years has been finding new wilderness to get lost in.

Benpointer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Just received a begogram from CCHQ demanding more money by 10pm tonight, because funding has dried up the last few days, or they'll have to pull the campaign in some seats.

I can't say it's made me want to hit the 'DONATE' button.

Would it be unkind to suggest that, given they are lacking 200 or so candidates, they can afford to pull the campaign in some seats?

Finding a paper candidate for an unwinnable seat like East Ham shouldn't be difficult. It's finding those where they might still have a chance which is difficult.

I suspect the Conservatives are actively fighting 150-200 seats at most given paucity of human resources, not money. Labour are probably fighting 200-250 seats hard but both seats will move activists to other seats if needed.

Noone is going to want to waste any time fighting a seat like East Ham.

ToryJim said:

Benpointer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Just received a begogram from CCHQ demanding more money by 10pm tonight, because funding has dried up the last few days, or they'll have to pull the campaign in some seats.

I can't say it's made me want to hit the 'DONATE' button.

Would it be unkind to suggest that, given they are lacking 200 or so candidates, they can afford to pull the campaign in some seats?

The negative publicity of not fielding a full slate might end up causing more problems than wasting money on an obvious lost cause.

And it doesn't cost much to field a paper candidate.

Farooq said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

boulay said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Rather than gesture politics, the way to solve fly tipping is to make it easier to do the right thing than the wrong thing. That means making it free/very cheap to dispose of building waste.

So if a company who charge to dispose of waste gets a completely free service from the council and that cost has to be covered by tax payers is that ok?

You don’t get your bins emptied for free, it’s covered by the council tax but you aren’t charging your neighbours to put their rubbish in your bin so it’s fair.

Even if they do reduce the costs people will still fly tip because they are inconsiderate lazy fuckers - you just have to see the general British attitude to littering - and so an extra stick is useful and points off driving licences is actually something that’s going to affect someone who has to drive for a living to dump rubbish in woodlands.

Fly tipping started in massive amounts when austerity began. A coincidence? Absolutely not.

Yes disposing of waste should be free.

Why when it is the local authorities responsibility and they have no money

Because it's nicer than having rubbish piled up in the layby and it's cheaper than monitoring and investigating flytipping enough to deter people from doing it.

You have a choice

Either the Local Authorities pays, Westminster pays, or the consumer

stodge said:

Benpointer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Just received a begogram from CCHQ demanding more money by 10pm tonight, because funding has dried up the last few days, or they'll have to pull the campaign in some seats.

I can't say it's made me want to hit the 'DONATE' button.

Would it be unkind to suggest that, given they are lacking 200 or so candidates, they can afford to pull the campaign in some seats?

Finding a paper candidate for an unwinnable seat like East Ham shouldn't be difficult. It's finding those where they might still have a chance which is difficult.

I suspect the Conservatives are actively fighting 150-200 seats at most given paucity of human resources, not money. Labour are probably fighting 200-250 seats hard but both seats will move activists to other seats if needed.

Noone is going to want to waste any time fighting a seat like East Ham.

Interesting to ponder what the Tories will do in my seat North Dorset. One of they're top 20 safe seats but Labour seem not to be bothering and the LDs will go hard. I think the Tories will have to put some effort in here.

ToryJim said:

So Boris has decided to go in to bat for Trump

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13480329/BORIS-JOHNSON-liberal-hit-job-political-Trump-victory-likely.html

Rishi must be tearing his hair out.

The Sage of Santo Domingo Speaks!

ToryJim said:

So Boris has decided to go in to bat for Trump

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13480329/BORIS-JOHNSON-liberal-hit-job-political-Trump-victory-likely.html

Rishi must be tearing his hair out.

Whose hair? Boris's, or his own?

In PFI Election News

SKS confirms GB Energy isn’t an energy company but an investment arm for private sector & will not:

1) produce energy

2) sell energy

3) own any energy infrastructure

And no explanation as to how it reduces bills.

Green Party policy is to renationalise Energy

williamglenn said:

Farooq said:

ToryJim said:

So Boris has decided to go in to bat for Trump

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13480329/BORIS-JOHNSON-liberal-hit-job-political-Trump-victory-likely.html

Rishi must be tearing his hair out.

It's nearly daily now with senior Tories genuflecting before Trump.
This is why they need to lose and lose badly. We really don't want that shit here.

Labour have said they'll find "common cause" with Trump.

It's more a question of realpolitik - if Trump wins (and assuming Starmer does) there will need to be some form of Anglo-American relationship and while that might be difficult at some levels, there will be a pragmatism at work which will ensure it's civil if not cordial.

The other thing we don't know is who would be in a Trump 2025-29 administration - I can't imagine many of those who served from 2017-21 wanting a second go so who would be, for example, the likely SoS?

bigjohnowls said:

Meanwhile in real voters news

Kingstanding (Birmingham) Council By-Election Result:

🌳 CON: 47.9% (+4.7)
🌹 LAB: 39.3% (-6.1)
🔶 LDM: 4.7% (-0.0)
🌍 GRN: 4.2% (-0.0)
⚙️ WPB: 2.7% (New)
👨‍🔧 TUSC: 1.2% (-0.5)

No WM (-0.6) as previous.

Conservative HOLD.
Changes w/ 2022.

5.4% swing LAB to CON

Another lost deposit for the Green Tories.

Farooq said:

ToryJim said:

So Boris has decided to go in to bat for Trump

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13480329/BORIS-JOHNSON-liberal-hit-job-political-Trump-victory-likely.html

Rishi must be tearing his hair out.

It's nearly daily now with senior Tories genuflecting before Trump.
This is why they need to lose and lose badly. We really don't want that shit here.

Except the reverse might happen.

If Rishi and Hunt lead the Tories to landslide defeat, Boris can say 'told you so' and if a new Tory Opposition leader proves a dud come back to 'save' the Conservatives in Opposition and take advantage of any Starmer government unpopularity.

After all if Trump does manage to beat Biden in a rematch after Biden beat him in 2020, Boris will think why can't he have another go at Starmer too now Rishi flopped against him?

If Rishi wins and Biden is re elected however, that would kill off any talk of a Boris comeback and finish Trump too

Farooq said:

ToryJim said:

So Boris has decided to go in to bat for Trump

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13480329/BORIS-JOHNSON-liberal-hit-job-political-Trump-victory-likely.html

Rishi must be tearing his hair out.

It's nearly daily now with senior Tories genuflecting before Trump.
This is why they need to lose and lose badly. We really don't want that shit here.

David Lammy spent 2 days last week doing the same

Presumably he is a Senior Tory?

stodge said:

williamglenn said:

Farooq said:

ToryJim said:

So Boris has decided to go in to bat for Trump

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13480329/BORIS-JOHNSON-liberal-hit-job-political-Trump-victory-likely.html

Rishi must be tearing his hair out.

It's nearly daily now with senior Tories genuflecting before Trump.
This is why they need to lose and lose badly. We really don't want that shit here.

Labour have said they'll find "common cause" with Trump.

It's more a question of realpolitik - if Trump wins (and assuming Starmer does) there will need to be some form of Anglo-American relationship and while that might be difficult at some levels, there will be a pragmatism at work which will ensure it's civil if not cordial.

The other thing we don't know is who would be in a Trump 2025-29 administration - I can't imagine many of those who served from 2017-21 wanting a second go so who would be, for example, the likely SoS?

A corporate type with cur like loyalty to DJT. Maybe Ramaswamy or Robert Bigelow.

Northern_Al said:

bigjohnowls said:

Not a single mainstream journalist has asked how ‘Great British Energy’ will reduce bills for the consumer.

It wont unless I am missing something

You are. An apostrophe.

Indeed. Puts on black cap. "You have been found guilty...."

Stuartinromford said:

Here's where Labour think the battlefield is...

I had a look at where Labour is sending activists from its “how to help” webpage. I found 256 constituencies where activists are being directed - seats Labour thinks are in play. They include all but one seat in Scotland so from here I am referring to England and Wales only.

https://twitter.com/OwenWntr/status/1796497107366642057

On the whole, the seats chosen are very bullish. They include 174 Conservative seats from 2019 (notional). That is every Conservative seat with a majority under 28% and over half of seats with a majority up to 32%...

But there are some seats suggesting serious weakness. Here are those with the largest notional Labour majorities:

1. Birmingham Ladywood (73%)
2. Bethnal Green & Stepney (63%)
3. Bradford West (61%)
4. Birmingham Perry Barr (48%)
5. Leicester South (46%)
6. Blackburn (3%)

Well, it's not hard to see what those six seats have in common. There will be efforts to publicise Labour's more balanced line on Gaza through the rest of the campaign. Whether that will be enough, I don't know.
It would be interesting to know how many of those six seats Galloway's mob are standing in.

Stuartinromford said:

Here's where Labour think the battlefield is...

I had a look at where Labour is sending activists from its “how to help” webpage. I found 256 constituencies where activists are being directed - seats Labour thinks are in play. They include all but one seat in Scotland so from here I am referring to England and Wales only.

https://twitter.com/OwenWntr/status/1796497107366642057

On the whole, the seats chosen are very bullish. They include 174 Conservative seats from 2019 (notional). That is every Conservative seat with a majority under 28% and over half of seats with a majority up to 32%...

But there are some seats suggesting serious weakness. Here are those with the largest notional Labour majorities:

1. Birmingham Ladywood (73%)
2. Bethnal Green & Stepney (63%)
3. Bradford West (61%)
4. Birmingham Perry Barr (48%)
5. Leicester South (46%)
6. Blackburn (3%)

My take on that is that betting on Labour in Scotland could be value, even in seats where they are nominally in 3rd place.

A Tory candidate for Putney came round for a chat.

I asked him why his flyer was green and if this was a bit misleading. He said it wasn't.

He said would I be voting Conservative. I said, is Rishi Sunak still your leader. He said he was.

I said therefore, no I won't be. He left.

Casino_Royale said:

Fuck it, I'm watching Aliens again.

"Hey, top! What's the op?"

numbertwelve said:

ping said:

Forgive me, I'm out of the loop. The most notable sentence in Johnson's piece looks to me to be;

"On the most important geo-strategic issue of our time, the freedom of Ukraine, he has the energy and coherence to ensure we get the right answer: the defeat of Putin, and a clear message to the world, especially China, that aggression does not pay."

Last I heard, Both Trump and the GOP were pretty uncomplicatedly aping Mearsheimer vis-a-vis Ukraine.

Is this projection from Boris, or has Trump turned?

There have been suggestions that he may have started to realise the gravity of the situation in Ukraine. However, this is Trump and so would not like to rely on that.

Trump only does something if it has a benefit for Trump, so we discount any explanation that involves him giving a shit about the situation in Ukraine.

It might be that someone he is willing to listen to has convinced him that Biden is vulnerable to the charge of failing Ukraine and not supporting Ukraine strongly enough to achieve victory.

But we also shouldn't confuse stuff that Trump says with what he ends up doing.

With regard to tactical voting, I've been looking at the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. The Britain Elects model predicts
LD 35.1% + 8.5
Con 32.6% - 21.3
Lab 18.8% + 1.9
Ref 8.1% + 7.8
Grn 5.5% + 3.1
+/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency)
So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.

But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see
LAB 31.3%
CON 27.9%
LD 24.3%
Ref 11.0%
Grn 4.6%
In which case they will vote Lab.

Two questions for the PB brains trust:
1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different?
2. Which is more likely to be right?

I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

A Tory candidate for Putney came round for a chat.

I asked him why his flyer was green and if this was a bit misleading. He said it wasn't.

He said would I be voting Conservative. I said, is Rishi Sunak still your leader. He said he was.

I said therefore, no I won't be. He left.

Many, many years ago I entered into a doorstep conversation with a candidate from the Natural Law party (They were top end nutters).
I found it hard to get rid of them. Somehow it was coffee and biscuits.

I did though get a copy of one of the most wonderful (in a bad way) documents that's ever been published - their manifesto.

Oh God. Biden. The state of him in this speech. And he’s our only hope of no Trump. I know I am saying nothing new here but, Christ….

Those less likely and more likely voters... they're lying. They had already made up their minds.

Question for SKS fans.

Why did he use a private jet to launch his Green Energy Policy in Scotland?

I get he is not safe on Public transport but surely he could have cycled there

Cookie said:

Not really a politics post, but I'm going to use my quota.

You don't really go to the Yorkshire Dales much when you grow up in Greater Manchester. They're not far away, but the Lake District is easier to get to - and what can compete with that? - and the Peak District is closer still. So I've managed to go 49 years before today finally getting around to seeing Malham Cove. (I took the daughters as a half-term activity to get them off screens, but really it was for me.)
There's a long circular walk you can do. Along the stream and through the wood to Janet's Foss (named after the fairy who dwells behind the waterfall - apparently Janet is a not uncommon name for fairies in the North); up the frankly astonishing Gordale Scar (which was unascendable - the path that climbs up beside the waterfall also being a waterfall); back and up onto the plateau, and among big skies and rockscapes and distant misty views to Malham Tarn, then back to the limestone pavement above Malham Cove and down to the Cove itself. It's hard to say exactly why a cliff should be astonishing, but it's astonishing. It's like a cathedral. I couldn't stop looking at it. I could have looked at it all day. It glows. One of the wonders of the North. Definite noom.


Happy to report this was all achieved without disproportionate whingeing.

Ooh, I know, to bring in a politics angle, I saw a Vote Labour flag in Malham(!), a Lib Dem flag and a Palestinian flag in Airton, and an utterly baffling protest on Junction 27 of the M60 in Stockport where for complicated reasons I went through on my way home - it appeared to encompass anti-vaxxery ("tell us your stories about how the vaccine has harmed YOU!" - rather suggests they're scrabbling around a bit for the bones of their conspiracy theory), opposition to Net Zero, and "Peace not Bombs" - though it wasn't clear in what context this was.

bigjohnowls said:

Question for SKS fans.

Why did he use a private jet to launch his Green Energy Policy in Scotland?

I get he is not safe on Public transport but surely he could have cycled there

Probably because he wanted to activate his critics to highlight his energy policy. Just like this week his critics have helpfully highlighted his distance from left wingers.

Modern politics I’m afraid.

Benpointer said:

fencesitter2 said:

With regard to tactical voting, I've been looking at the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. The Britain Elects model predicts
LD 35.1% + 8.5
Con 32.6% - 21.3
Lab 18.8% + 1.9
Ref 8.1% + 7.8
Grn 5.5% + 3.1
+/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency)
So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.

But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see
LAB 31.3%
CON 27.9%
LD 24.3%
Ref 11.0%
Grn 4.6%
In which case they will vote Lab.

Two questions for the PB brains trust:
1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different?
2. Which is more likely to be right?

I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.

Tactical Voting says LDs are the choice for non-Tories in Bicester:

https://tactical.vote/bicester-and-woodstock/

I wonder how many people will look at that website? Corbyn 2019 coupled with that website could save a few Tories.

Casino_Royale said:

Fuck it, I'm watching Aliens again.

One of my all time favourites . Can’t believe it’s nearly 40 years old .

Cookie said:

tlg86 said:

@Cookie - I visited Malham for the first time in 2022 - absolutely stunning (once I'd navigated my way past the bulls...)

On another matter, Borussia Dortmund have lost the floating voter:

https://x.com/GaryLineker/status/1796558643313438954

@GaryLineker
First time I’ll be cheering for @realmadriden in a Champions League final. 🙄

Borussia Dortmund have signed a three-year sponsorship agreement with weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall.

It's all quite difficult to follow, but ISTR Rheinmetall are supplying Putin, yes? So Lineker manages to be on the right side of this argument, though doesn't really make clear why. I think.

Rheinmetall guns equipped Messerschmitts and Stukas during ze War.

Doogle1941 said:

Farooq said:

Doogle1941 said:

Farooq said:

bigjohnowls said:

Farooq said:

ToryJim said:

So Boris has decided to go in to bat for Trump

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13480329/BORIS-JOHNSON-liberal-hit-job-political-Trump-victory-likely.html

Rishi must be tearing his hair out.

It's nearly daily now with senior Tories genuflecting before Trump.
This is why they need to lose and lose badly. We really don't want that shit here.

David Lammy spent 2 days last week doing the same

Presumably he is a Senior Tory?

Everyone to the right of Mao is a Tory though, eh, comrade?

Whether you like Trump or not, why not look at the bigger picture. For years since 2016 the u.s. administrative state have been trying to take down Trump, e.g. the 'Russian collusion' play by hrc. Why not ask yourself what are they so afraid of. Trump is a political outsider so in what circumstances could you imagine that Trump is a threat to the status quo such that his enemies behave so irrationally ? (hint: their corruption)

"Why not ask yourself what they're so afraid of?"

I agree. Once you set aside the lies, the chaos, the sexual assault, the anti-science agenda, the control over women's bodies, the fraud, the disastrous Covid response, the destabilising of geopolitical allies, the pandering to dictators, the backchannelling, nepotism, the Nazi boosting, and fact that he literally tried to have a mob lynch his own vice president, they've got NOTHING.

wow, you must really love your msm

You're early, Doogle.

Your shift doesn't start until tomorrow morning.

a

Doogle1941 said:

Farooq said:

Doogle1941 said:

Farooq said:

bigjohnowls said:

Farooq said:

ToryJim said:

So Boris has decided to go in to bat for Trump

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13480329/BORIS-JOHNSON-liberal-hit-job-political-Trump-victory-likely.html

Rishi must be tearing his hair out.

It's nearly daily now with senior Tories genuflecting before Trump.
This is why they need to lose and lose badly. We really don't want that shit here.

David Lammy spent 2 days last week doing the same

Presumably he is a Senior Tory?

Everyone to the right of Mao is a Tory though, eh, comrade?

Whether you like Trump or not, why not look at the bigger picture. For years since 2016 the u.s. administrative state have been trying to take down Trump, e.g. the 'Russian collusion' play by hrc. Why not ask yourself what are they so afraid of. Trump is a political outsider so in what circumstances could you imagine that Trump is a threat to the status quo such that his enemies behave so irrationally ? (hint: their corruption)

"Why not ask yourself what they're so afraid of?"

I agree. Once you set aside the lies, the chaos, the sexual assault, the anti-science agenda, the control over women's bodies, the fraud, the disastrous Covid response, the destabilising of geopolitical allies, the pandering to dictators, the backchannelling, nepotism, the Nazi boosting, and fact that he literally tried to have a mob lynch his own vice president, they've got NOTHING.

wow, you must really love your msm

Hello.

A plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border. Which side do you bury the survivors?

NickPalmer said:

Benpointer said:

fencesitter2 said:

With regard to tactical voting, I've been looking at the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. The Britain Elects model predicts
LD 35.1% + 8.5
Con 32.6% - 21.3
Lab 18.8% + 1.9
Ref 8.1% + 7.8
Grn 5.5% + 3.1
+/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency)
So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.

But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see
LAB 31.3%
CON 27.9%
LD 24.3%
Ref 11.0%
Grn 4.6%
In which case they will vote Lab.

Two questions for the PB brains trust:
1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different?
2. Which is more likely to be right?

I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.

Tactical Voting says LDs are the choice for non-Tories in Bicester:

https://tactical.vote/bicester-and-woodstock/

The difficulty, as in other seats like Didcot and Wantage, is in allowing for the large national increase in Lab vote and standstill or slight decline in LD vote since 2019. Electoral Calculus assumes that these changes are largely repeated locally, whereas Britain Elects and Tactical Voting assume that Labour voters wll resignedly vote LD tactically. My impression is that tactical voting is more limited this time and voters will largely indicate their natural preference. which will limit LD gains and in some cases, like Bicester, produce Labour gains from third place. We're certainly campaigning in Didcot and Wantage on the assuimption that the seat is winnable for Labour, and think it's quite unlikelyto be winnable by the LibDems.

Agree. In the eventuality of a big Labour victory, the Lib Dems are only likely to be competitive in Tory (and SNP) seats where they are the obvious challenger and Labour are a very long way behind.

pigeon said:

Cookie said:

tlg86 said:

@Cookie - I visited Malham for the first time in 2022 - absolutely stunning (once I'd navigated my way past the bulls...)

On another matter, Borussia Dortmund have lost the floating voter:

https://x.com/GaryLineker/status/1796558643313438954

@GaryLineker
First time I’ll be cheering for @realmadriden in a Champions League final. 🙄

Borussia Dortmund have signed a three-year sponsorship agreement with weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall.

It's all quite difficult to follow, but ISTR Rheinmetall are supplying Putin, yes? So Lineker manages to be on the right side of this argument, though doesn't really make clear why. I think.

It must be to do with Israel. They're a German firm so can't be supplying kit to the Russians.

They are supplying masses of arms to Ukraine and have signed an agreement to open a factory in Ukraine, but they're also sending tank ammunition to Israel.

https://afsc.org/gaza-genocide-companies

"Germany's largest weapons manufacturer, which is providing Israel with 10,000 rounds of 120mm precision tank ammunition. Israel made the request in November, and Germany reportedly considered speeding up delivery of the ammunition by providing it from its own military's existing stockpiles while ordering more from Rheinmetall."

LostPassword said:

pigeon said:

Cookie said:

tlg86 said:

@Cookie - I visited Malham for the first time in 2022 - absolutely stunning (once I'd navigated my way past the bulls...)

On another matter, Borussia Dortmund have lost the floating voter:

https://x.com/GaryLineker/status/1796558643313438954

@GaryLineker
First time I’ll be cheering for @realmadriden in a Champions League final. 🙄

Borussia Dortmund have signed a three-year sponsorship agreement with weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall.

It's all quite difficult to follow, but ISTR Rheinmetall are supplying Putin, yes? So Lineker manages to be on the right side of this argument, though doesn't really make clear why. I think.

It must be to do with Israel. They're a German firm so can't be supplying kit to the Russians.

They are supplying masses of arms to Ukraine and have signed an agreement to open a factory in Ukraine, but they're also sending tank ammunition to Israel.

https://afsc.org/gaza-genocide-companies

"Germany's largest weapons manufacturer, which is providing Israel with 10,000 rounds of 120mm precision tank ammunition. Israel made the request in November, and Germany reportedly considered speeding up delivery of the ammunition by providing it from its own military's existing stockpiles while ordering more from Rheinmetall."

They sound like the good guys then!

Stuartinromford said:

Here's where Labour think the battlefield is...

I had a look at where Labour is sending activists from its “how to help” webpage. I found 256 constituencies where activists are being directed - seats Labour thinks are in play. They include all but one seat in Scotland so from here I am referring to England and Wales only.

https://twitter.com/OwenWntr/status/1796497107366642057

On the whole, the seats chosen are very bullish. They include 174 Conservative seats from 2019 (notional). That is every Conservative seat with a majority under 28% and over half of seats with a majority up to 32%...

But there are some seats suggesting serious weakness. Here are those with the largest notional Labour majorities:

1. Birmingham Ladywood (73%)
2. Bethnal Green & Stepney (63%)
3. Bradford West (61%)
4. Birmingham Perry Barr (48%)
5. Leicester South (46%)
6. Blackburn (3%)

174 gains from the Tories offset by 6 losses to Hamas and their fellow travellers. I'll take that.

NickPalmer said:

Benpointer said:

fencesitter2 said:

With regard to tactical voting, I've been looking at the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. The Britain Elects model predicts
LD 35.1% + 8.5
Con 32.6% - 21.3
Lab 18.8% + 1.9
Ref 8.1% + 7.8
Grn 5.5% + 3.1
+/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency)
So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.

But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see
LAB 31.3%
CON 27.9%
LD 24.3%
Ref 11.0%
Grn 4.6%
In which case they will vote Lab.

Two questions for the PB brains trust:
1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different?
2. Which is more likely to be right?

I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.

Tactical Voting says LDs are the choice for non-Tories in Bicester:

https://tactical.vote/bicester-and-woodstock/

The difficulty, as in other seats like Didcot and Wantage, is in allowing for the large national increase in Lab vote and standstill or slight decline in LD vote since 2019. Electoral Calculus assumes that these changes are largely repeated locally, whereas Britain Elects and Tactical Voting assume that Labour voters wll resignedly vote LD tactically. My impression is that tactical voting is more limited this time and voters will largely indicate their natural preference. which will limit LD gains and in some cases, like Bicester, produce Labour gains from third place. We're certainly campaigning in Didcot and Wantage on the assuimption that the seat is winnable for Labour, and think it's quite unlikelyto be winnable by the LibDems.

Just to provide the verdict of a third model, the Economist reckons Bicester and Woodstock will be
Con 32
Lab 30
LD 19
Ref 8
Green 7
ie that the lack of tactical voting (or confused tactical voting) will enable Con to hold the seat.
That seems to me to be the most likely outcome, if both Lab and LD mount a determined campaign. I can't see any way that tactical voters can know which way to vote, given three models which predict three different winners.

fencesitter2 said:

With regard to tactical voting, I've been looking at the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. The Britain Elects model predicts
LD 35.1% + 8.5
Con 32.6% - 21.3
Lab 18.8% + 1.9
Ref 8.1% + 7.8
Grn 5.5% + 3.1
+/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency)
So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.

But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see
LAB 31.3%
CON 27.9%
LD 24.3%
Ref 11.0%
Grn 4.6%
In which case they will vote Lab.

Two questions for the PB brains trust:
1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different?
2. Which is more likely to be right?

I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.

The notional 2019 result for Bicester and Woodstock is 53.4% Con, 26.5% LD, 17.1% Lab.

I think it's worth looking at UNS in national opinion polls as a starting point. At the moment LDs are down nearly 3% on 2019, Lab are up about 12.5%, Con are down 25%. UNS would just about put Labour ahead of the Conservatives with the LDs in a clear 3rd.

The Britain Elects "model" for Bicester looks really strange to me, with the LDs really bucking the national trend of a declining national vote share, and the Lab vote barely up despite taking off nationally.

OK, UNS isn't everything. So let's look at the R&W Blue Wall polling, it's instructive because it's made up of an amalgam of seats in the South where the aggregated vote share from 2019 has the LDs in 2nd place i.e. 2019 was Con 50%, LD 27%, Lab 20%. Not that dissimilar to Bicester in 2019 in fact. But what's striking about the Blue Wall polling is that R&W have the change in main parties share much the same as the national share. If anything, Labour are doing slightly better. The latest change on 2019 in the R&W Blue Wall seats is Con -24.7%, LD -4.4%, Lab +13.4%. That is even better for Labour's chances than just applying UNS, with those % changes and you get a result very close to that predicted by Electoral Calculus in Bicester.

So you're right, tactical voting isn't absolutly clear cut, but looking at all that I would give Labour a better chance than the LDs on current national polling.

rottenborough said:

Ed Miliband

@Ed_Miliband

Great British HENergy 🐔 🇬🇧


https://x.com/Ed_Miliband/status/1796593577914675504

Given what most hen parties are like, "Chaos with Ed Miliband".

TUC's head of campaigns gets seat. More talent who will not want to just be backbench vote fodder.

Starmer has a problem looming imho. Maybe it is one of life's nice problems to have...




Antonia Bance
@antoniabance
·
19h
It’s the honour of my life to be selected as Labour’s candidate for Tipton and Wednesbury.

https://x.com/antoniabance

JosiasJessop said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Not really a politics post, but I'm going to use my quota.

You don't really go to the Yorkshire Dales much when you grow up in Greater Manchester. They're not far away, but the Lake District is easier to get to - and what can compete with that? - and the Peak District is closer still. So I've managed to go 49 years before today finally getting around to seeing Malham Cove. (I took the daughters as a half-term activity to get them off screens, but really it was for me.)
There's a long circular walk you can do. Along the stream and through the wood to Janet's Foss (named after the fairy who dwells behind the waterfall - apparently Janet is a not uncommon name for fairies in the North); up the frankly astonishing Gordale Scar (which was unascendable - the path that climbs up beside the waterfall also being a waterfall); back and up onto the plateau, and among big skies and rockscapes and distant misty views to Malham Tarn, then back to the limestone pavement above Malham Cove and down to the Cove itself. It's hard to say exactly why a cliff should be astonishing, but it's astonishing. It's like a cathedral. I couldn't stop looking at it. I could have looked at it all day. It glows. One of the wonders of the North. Definite noom.


Happy to report this was all achieved without disproportionate whingeing.

That does look quite noomy! Britain is lucky with noom

I’ve felt a bit of noom here in Moldova but TBH not much. I expected more - not sure why

I’m hoping for Good Noom in Transnistria tomorrow

I think my son's just had his first NOOM moment. He was drawing a mosaic at Bignor Roman Villa, concentrating intently on his work. It was quiet, and no-one entered the room. Eventually he looked up at me and said: "Dad, I feel something in here, something bigger."

"Spiritual?" I asked.

He thought about it a little. "No, but bigger. History."

He then explained that he felt almost as though he was partly back in that time, as if he was breathing in Roman dust.

That’s it! Yes. THE NOOM

WHY anyone with any other top job prospects would WANT to be in the USA federal cabinet is beyond me.

The only really significant jobs are Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense. The rest are glorified office boys & girls.

As many have discovered & rued, for example Pete Buttigieg whose political prospects have NOT been enhanced IMHO by being US Transportation Secretary. Even less so for the rest of the politicos in the Biden cabinet.

Which is NOT unique in this regard - just ask Rick Perry!

Benpointer said:

stodge said:

Benpointer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Just received a begogram from CCHQ demanding more money by 10pm tonight, because funding has dried up the last few days, or they'll have to pull the campaign in some seats.

I can't say it's made me want to hit the 'DONATE' button.

Would it be unkind to suggest that, given they are lacking 200 or so candidates, they can afford to pull the campaign in some seats?

Finding a paper candidate for an unwinnable seat like East Ham shouldn't be difficult. It's finding those where they might still have a chance which is difficult.

I suspect the Conservatives are actively fighting 150-200 seats at most given paucity of human resources, not money. Labour are probably fighting 200-250 seats hard but both seats will move activists to other seats if needed.

Noone is going to want to waste any time fighting a seat like East Ham.

Interesting to ponder what the Tories will do in my seat North Dorset. One of they're top 20 safe seats but Labour seem not to be bothering and the LDs will go hard. I think the Tories will have to put some effort in here.

My cousin there is no fan of the Tories, but neither is he keen on a 20% hike in his daughters school fees. A very bright girl who lost her mother last year to cancer, so he is keen not to move schools.

Fortunately he can vote LD, as I think he wouldn't want to vote Lab.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Cookie said:

tlg86 said:

@Cookie - I visited Malham for the first time in 2022 - absolutely stunning (once I'd navigated my way past the bulls...)

On another matter, Borussia Dortmund have lost the floating voter:

https://x.com/GaryLineker/status/1796558643313438954

@GaryLineker
First time I’ll be cheering for @realmadriden in a Champions League final. 🙄

Borussia Dortmund have signed a three-year sponsorship agreement with weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall.

It's all quite difficult to follow, but ISTR Rheinmetall are supplying Putin, yes? So Lineker manages to be on the right side of this argument, though doesn't really make clear why. I think.

Rheinmetall guns equipped Messerschmitts and Stukas during ze War.

Almost certainly the most potently armed fighter of WWII, 4 x 30 mm MK 108 cannon. One shell from them would mess up your day.

According to the World Bank, Russia's economy has now overtaken Japan's in PPP terms, making it the fourth biggest economy behind China, the US and India.

Casino_Royale said:

Fuck it, I'm watching Aliens again.

Directors Cut? With the extra machine gun carnage?