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Only 17% of Americans expect Trump to serve time – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,801
edited June 8 in General
Only 17% of Americans expect Trump to serve time – politicalbetting.com

May 30-31 poll of 2,657 U.S. adults • 44% think Donald Trump should serve time in prison for his conviction in the hush-money case• 40% say he shouldn't serve time• 17% say he will serve time• 54% say he won't serve timehttps://t.co/eWQDNZeLkEhttps://t.co/UlnvdjgNF1 pic.twitter.com/x1jgPi0foJ

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  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,127
    First?
  • Options
    WillGWillG Posts: 2,223
    nico679 said:

    Trump continues to attack the judge who is handing down the sentence . Not the best move but he obviously thinks he’s going to get at worst a fine .

    It will affect his sentencing.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,319
    It seems to me that any damage with independents is marginal, looking at those numbers. But, marginal damage may be enough for Biden to edge it.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464
    Trump says some of "the witnesses on our side" were "literally crucified," adds that the Judge Merchan looks like an angel but "is the devil."

    https://x.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1796560083192873170
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,401
    I don't think the more/less likely figures are worth a damn. 9% of Democrats more likely to vote Trump after he's been convicted? I don't think so.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105

    Trump says some of "the witnesses on our side" were "literally crucified," adds that the Judge Merchan looks like an angel but "is the devil."

    https://x.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1796560083192873170

    Literally as in 9 inch nails and lumps of 2 by 4?
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,203
    FPT
    NickyBreakspear said:
    » show previous quotes
    I understand your view point. I do not want to change the six polling companies because they are the six which have produced weekly polling for almost 2 years.

    I do not include More in Common which have provided weekly polls recently because if I did, I would not be able to compare on a consistent basis with the average now and the average 12 months ago.

    The average is not trying to predict anything; all it is is a tracker of six polling companies with their particular in house methodologies. I am not suggesting that those six polling companies are any better than any other polling company.

    What it does enable is a consistent approach to try and discover whether there has been movement from week to week in that average. By using an average of polls it should reduce statisical polling errors.

    I think that we are likely to have weekly polls from More in Common, Opinium, Survation, BMG and potentially JL Partners as well as my six from now until 4 July. Other calculations of averages are quite feasible and will show different attributes.

    BigJohnOwls said

    Thats fine mate it is still a very useful thing to do

    I was wondering if a slight tweak might improve it but when you explain about the 12 month trend I understand

    Keep up the good work.

    UK Polling Wiki is always also available for people too if they want to see all pollsters
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,408
    WillG said:

    nico679 said:

    Trump continues to attack the judge who is handing down the sentence . Not the best move but he obviously thinks he’s going to get at worst a fine .

    It will affect his sentencing.
    It should do but I doubt it . Merchan is likely to not want to inflame tensions and will probably give him a fine and perhaps probation .
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,387
    edited May 31

    Trump says some of "the witnesses on our side" were "literally crucified," adds that the Judge Merchan looks like an angel but "is the devil."

    https://x.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1796560083192873170

    "... looks like an angel but is the devil"?

    An interesting sidelight on how he thinks about women, if nothing else.

    [Edit: The judge is a man??]
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,839
    ToryJim said:

    Trump says some of "the witnesses on our side" were "literally crucified," adds that the Judge Merchan looks like an angel but "is the devil."

    https://x.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1796560083192873170

    Literally as in 9 inch nails and lumps of 2 by 4?
    He's presumably referring to Jesus. Would have been a powerful witness had he been available to testify. Gestas, too, maybe. He could well be a Trumpite, I guess.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884
    FPT:
    Selebian said:

    Angela Rayner seems to have hired the Conservative Party to do her PR.

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1796546759055036550

    Oh God, they have another of those three-phrase slogans - 'Clear Plan, Bold Action, Secure Future'. :hushed:

    More like "Hands [over] Face. Displace"
    I really, really hope this style of sloganeering dies with the government. It is very annoying.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,579

    FPT:

    Selebian said:

    Angela Rayner seems to have hired the Conservative Party to do her PR.

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1796546759055036550

    Oh God, they have another of those three-phrase slogans - 'Clear Plan, Bold Action, Secure Future'. :hushed:

    More like "Hands [over] Face. Displace"
    I really, really hope this style of sloganeering dies with the government. It is very annoying.
    Have they yet revealed what this Clear Plan might actually consist of?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953
    dixiedean said:

    FPT:

    Selebian said:

    Angela Rayner seems to have hired the Conservative Party to do her PR.

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1796546759055036550

    Oh God, they have another of those three-phrase slogans - 'Clear Plan, Bold Action, Secure Future'. :hushed:

    More like "Hands [over] Face. Displace"
    I really, really hope this style of sloganeering dies with the government. It is very annoying.
    Have they yet revealed what this Clear Plan might actually consist of?
    It does sound like the household cleaning aisle of the local supermarket, too.
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,518
    edited May 31
    Muesli said:

    FPT

    AlsoLei said:

    New We Think poll (30th and 31st May fieldwork)

    🔴 Lab 46% (-1)
    🔵 Con 21% (-1)
    ⚪ Ref 13% (+1)
    🟠 LD 8% (NC)
    🟢 Green 6% (NC)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1796542301105233925

    Broken, sleazy Labour and Tories on the slide!
    No, it was Ed Davey on the slide.

    And he seemed to be having a lovely day out. I don't think Rishi or Keir would have managed that.
    And he's having another lovely day today, whilst talking about his free school meals policy:


    Sir Ed looks like the only one of the main party leaders who’s actually enjoying the campaign. I’ve not seen the photo of him on a slide but I’ll assume it’s not Mannionesque but in the same vein as the paddle boarding, the cycling and this school baking photo. Good. This election desperately needs some levity because it’s been duller than one any of Sean’s dribbling travelogues so far.
    I suspect Ed's targets this year is to increase the number of seats obtained, exploit the local government base and improve local face recognition and I suspect he thinks he's meeting it, and so therefore is quite happy. The Swinson strategy is not the way forward here.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,839
    edited May 31
    ToryJim said:

    FPT:

    Selebian said:

    Angela Rayner seems to have hired the Conservative Party to do her PR.

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1796546759055036550

    Oh God, they have another of those three-phrase slogans - 'Clear Plan, Bold Action, Secure Future'. :hushed:

    More like "Hands [over] Face. Displace"
    I really, really hope this style of sloganeering dies with the government. It is very annoying.
    The worst one is the train ones; see it, say it, sorted! The most annoying thing imaginable.
    Didn't someone on here post a picture of a tube train with the side completely covered in graffiti: "See it, spray it, sorted" :lol:

    ETA: Ah, yes: https://x.com/tontytrains/status/1751929135809589315
    (Also, for a long time, until I saw a poster once, I thought it was "See it. Say it. Sort it.", which at least makes a bit more sense.)
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,944

    Muesli said:

    FPT

    AlsoLei said:

    New We Think poll (30th and 31st May fieldwork)

    🔴 Lab 46% (-1)
    🔵 Con 21% (-1)
    ⚪ Ref 13% (+1)
    🟠 LD 8% (NC)
    🟢 Green 6% (NC)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1796542301105233925

    Broken, sleazy Labour and Tories on the slide!
    No, it was Ed Davey on the slide.

    And he seemed to be having a lovely day out. I don't think Rishi or Keir would have managed that.
    And he's having another lovely day today, whilst talking about his free school meals policy:


    Sir Ed looks like the only one of the main party leaders who’s actually enjoying the campaign. I’ve not seen the photo of him on a slide but I’ll assume it’s not Mannionesque but in the same vein as the paddle boarding, the cycling and this school baking photo. Good. This election desperately needs some levity because it’s been duller than one any of Sean’s dribbling travelogues so far.
    I suspect Ed's target this year is to increase the number of seats obtained, exploit the local government base and improve local face recognition and I suspect he thinks he's meeting it, and so therefore is quite happy. The Swinson strategy is not the way forward here.
    The over-enthusiasm doesn't worry you?
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,518
    Omnium said:

    Muesli said:

    FPT

    AlsoLei said:

    New We Think poll (30th and 31st May fieldwork)

    🔴 Lab 46% (-1)
    🔵 Con 21% (-1)
    ⚪ Ref 13% (+1)
    🟠 LD 8% (NC)
    🟢 Green 6% (NC)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1796542301105233925

    Broken, sleazy Labour and Tories on the slide!
    No, it was Ed Davey on the slide.

    And he seemed to be having a lovely day out. I don't think Rishi or Keir would have managed that.
    And he's having another lovely day today, whilst talking about his free school meals policy:


    Sir Ed looks like the only one of the main party leaders who’s actually enjoying the campaign. I’ve not seen the photo of him on a slide but I’ll assume it’s not Mannionesque but in the same vein as the paddle boarding, the cycling and this school baking photo. Good. This election desperately needs some levity because it’s been duller than one any of Sean’s dribbling travelogues so far.
    I suspect Ed's target this year is to increase the number of seats obtained, exploit the local government base and improve local face recognition and I suspect he thinks he's meeting it, and so therefore is quite happy. The Swinson strategy is not the way forward here.
    The over-enthusiasm doesn't worry you?
    not really, it's only politics after all...

    After 5th July it's back to the grind..
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    Going by this from one of the guys at Opinium their next polling offering could be interesting.

    https://x.com/cwp_weir/status/1796548534181019877?s=46

    Jesus wept

    Just doing some double checks, but jesus wept
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,839
    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT:

    Selebian said:

    Angela Rayner seems to have hired the Conservative Party to do her PR.

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1796546759055036550

    Oh God, they have another of those three-phrase slogans - 'Clear Plan, Bold Action, Secure Future'. :hushed:

    More like "Hands [over] Face. Displace"
    I really, really hope this style of sloganeering dies with the government. It is very annoying.
    Have they yet revealed what this Clear Plan might actually consist of?
    It does sound like the household cleaning aisle of the local supermarket, too.
    'Bold action' sounds like the dubious claims in a TV laundry powder commercial...
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,375
    Selebian said:

    ToryJim said:

    Trump says some of "the witnesses on our side" were "literally crucified," adds that the Judge Merchan looks like an angel but "is the devil."

    https://x.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1796560083192873170

    Literally as in 9 inch nails and lumps of 2 by 4?
    He's presumably referring to Jesus. Would have been a powerful witness had he been available to testify. Gestas, too, maybe. He could well be a Trumpite, I guess.
    If he wants to do time, then insulting the judge is a good way of getting there.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,944

    Omnium said:

    Muesli said:

    FPT

    AlsoLei said:

    New We Think poll (30th and 31st May fieldwork)

    🔴 Lab 46% (-1)
    🔵 Con 21% (-1)
    ⚪ Ref 13% (+1)
    🟠 LD 8% (NC)
    🟢 Green 6% (NC)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1796542301105233925

    Broken, sleazy Labour and Tories on the slide!
    No, it was Ed Davey on the slide.

    And he seemed to be having a lovely day out. I don't think Rishi or Keir would have managed that.
    And he's having another lovely day today, whilst talking about his free school meals policy:


    Sir Ed looks like the only one of the main party leaders who’s actually enjoying the campaign. I’ve not seen the photo of him on a slide but I’ll assume it’s not Mannionesque but in the same vein as the paddle boarding, the cycling and this school baking photo. Good. This election desperately needs some levity because it’s been duller than one any of Sean’s dribbling travelogues so far.
    I suspect Ed's target this year is to increase the number of seats obtained, exploit the local government base and improve local face recognition and I suspect he thinks he's meeting it, and so therefore is quite happy. The Swinson strategy is not the way forward here.
    The over-enthusiasm doesn't worry you?
    not really, it's only politics after all...

    After 5th July it's back to the grind..
    I'm assuming you're not actually Ed Davey? (Given the tag)

    Anyway assuming otherwise I simply can't believe how the LDs have gotten themselves from the Clegg of 2010 to today's position.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,839
    ToryJim said:

    Going by this from one of the guys at Opinium their next polling offering could be interesting.

    https://x.com/cwp_weir/status/1796548534181019877?s=46

    Jesus wept

    Just doing some double checks, but jesus wept

    No need for checks, it's well documented, is it not? King James Bible, amongst other sources.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,210
    ToryJim said:

    Going by this from one of the guys at Opinium their next polling offering could be interesting.

    https://x.com/cwp_weir/status/1796548534181019877?s=46

    Jesus wept

    Just doing some double checks, but jesus wept

    Poll ramping.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    FPT:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump now claiming he's never falsified business records before.
    Which considering the massive civil suit he lost in NY, which involved the falsification of business records, is odd.

    Is his memory going ?

    Trump says this could happen to anyone. Sure, because who hasn't slept with a porn star then tried to hush it up so it doesn't damage our chance of getting elected?
    The normal process in American politics is to use the proceeds of the drug dealing empire that involved the mayor, DA and the entire police force to pay off the porn star.

    Source - lots of bad movies on Netflix.
    Wasn't the only reason Jerry Springer had to resign as Mayor of Cincinnati was that he tried to charge his visit to a prostitute to his expenses?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,319
    ToryJim said:

    Going by this from one of the guys at Opinium their next polling offering could be interesting.

    https://x.com/cwp_weir/status/1796548534181019877?s=46

    Jesus wept

    Just doing some double checks, but jesus wept

    Probably a shift of 1%.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,202

    Muesli said:

    FPT

    AlsoLei said:

    New We Think poll (30th and 31st May fieldwork)

    🔴 Lab 46% (-1)
    🔵 Con 21% (-1)
    ⚪ Ref 13% (+1)
    🟠 LD 8% (NC)
    🟢 Green 6% (NC)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1796542301105233925

    Broken, sleazy Labour and Tories on the slide!
    No, it was Ed Davey on the slide.

    And he seemed to be having a lovely day out. I don't think Rishi or Keir would have managed that.
    And he's having another lovely day today, whilst talking about his free school meals policy:


    Sir Ed looks like the only one of the main party leaders who’s actually enjoying the campaign. I’ve not seen the photo of him on a slide but I’ll assume it’s not Mannionesque but in the same vein as the paddle boarding, the cycling and this school baking photo. Good. This election desperately needs some levity because it’s been duller than one any of Sean’s dribbling travelogues so far.
    I suspect Ed's targets this year is to increase the number of seats obtained, exploit the local government base and improve local face recognition and I suspect he thinks he's meeting it, and so therefore is quite happy. The Swinson strategy is not the way forward here.
    The other Ed has a go.

    Probably not to everyone's taste, but he's certainly improved his presentation skills since the bacon sandwich.

    https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1796531123318562987
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,401
    ToryJim said:

    Going by this from one of the guys at Opinium their next polling offering could be interesting.

    https://x.com/cwp_weir/status/1796548534181019877?s=46

    Jesus wept

    Just doing some double checks, but jesus wept

    Every time a pollster, or whoever has commissioned a poll, posts cryptic ramping of their poll on the web, a kitten dies.

    Every. Time.

    Let's not glorify kitten murder folks.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,579
    ToryJim said:

    Going by this from one of the guys at Opinium their next polling offering could be interesting.

    https://x.com/cwp_weir/status/1796548534181019877?s=46

    Jesus wept

    Just doing some double checks, but jesus wept

    Ramping.
    However. Opinium have been one of the consistently "low" lead forecasters.
    14-18% this year.
    So. Single figures. Or mid 20's.
    But most likely ramping.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,202
    dixiedean said:

    FPT:

    Selebian said:

    Angela Rayner seems to have hired the Conservative Party to do her PR.

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1796546759055036550

    Oh God, they have another of those three-phrase slogans - 'Clear Plan, Bold Action, Secure Future'. :hushed:

    More like "Hands [over] Face. Displace"
    I really, really hope this style of sloganeering dies with the government. It is very annoying.
    Have they yet revealed what this Clear Plan might actually consist of?
    That should be entirely transparent, shouldn't it ?
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,387
    ToryJim said:

    Going by this from one of the guys at Opinium their next polling offering could be interesting.

    https://x.com/cwp_weir/status/1796548534181019877?s=46

    Jesus wept

    Just doing some double checks, but jesus wept

    Quite a good tease, as teases go.

    "Lord, by this time he stinketh", or "Lazarus come forth"?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,579
    Selebian said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT:

    Selebian said:

    Angela Rayner seems to have hired the Conservative Party to do her PR.

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1796546759055036550

    Oh God, they have another of those three-phrase slogans - 'Clear Plan, Bold Action, Secure Future'. :hushed:

    More like "Hands [over] Face. Displace"
    I really, really hope this style of sloganeering dies with the government. It is very annoying.
    Have they yet revealed what this Clear Plan might actually consist of?
    It does sound like the household cleaning aisle of the local supermarket, too.
    'Bold action' sounds like the dubious claims in a TV laundry powder commercial...
    Clear plan sounds like over the counter vaginal itching cream.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,887
    NEW: Westminster Voting Intention, 31st May:

    Five weeks until the election, Labour lead the Conservatives by 20 points.

    🔴Lab 44 (-)
    🔘Con 24 (-)
    🔵Reform 11 (-2)
    🟠Lib Dem 9 (+1)
    🟢Green 6 (-)
    🟡SNP 3 (-)
    ⚫️Other 3 (-)

    whitestoneinsight.com/poll-digest
    @DailyMirror / @Daily_Express

    https://x.com/WStoneInsight/status/1796572344208523495?t=FaZ2Nai-FIkLmL-XeZc31Q&s=19

    A new online pollster to me, or is it an old one relabelled?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,042
    edited May 31
    ...
    ToryJim said:

    Going by this from one of the guys at Opinium their next polling offering could be interesting.

    https://x.com/cwp_weir/status/1796548534181019877?s=46

    Jesus wept

    Just doing some double checks, but jesus wept

    Same raw data as the last two weeks but after applying swingback a 20 points Tory lead.

    My guess, a Reform collapse and a hatful of Labour voters going Green.
  • Options
    FffsFffs Posts: 48
    DM_Andy said:

    FPT:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump now claiming he's never falsified business records before.
    Which considering the massive civil suit he lost in NY, which involved the falsification of business records, is odd.

    Is his memory going ?

    Trump says this could happen to anyone. Sure, because who hasn't slept with a porn star then tried to hush it up so it doesn't damage our chance of getting elected?
    The normal process in American politics is to use the proceeds of the drug dealing empire that involved the mayor, DA and the entire police force to pay off the porn star.

    Source - lots of bad movies on Netflix.
    Wasn't the only reason Jerry Springer had to resign as Mayor of Cincinnati was that he tried to charge his visit to a prostitute to his expenses?
    Surely he war merely engaging in outreach with marginalised members of the community?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953
    Selebian said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT:

    Selebian said:

    Angela Rayner seems to have hired the Conservative Party to do her PR.

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1796546759055036550

    Oh God, they have another of those three-phrase slogans - 'Clear Plan, Bold Action, Secure Future'. :hushed:

    More like "Hands [over] Face. Displace"
    I really, really hope this style of sloganeering dies with the government. It is very annoying.
    Have they yet revealed what this Clear Plan might actually consist of?
    It does sound like the household cleaning aisle of the local supermarket, too.
    'Bold action' sounds like the dubious claims in a TV laundry powder commercial...
    Kleer floor polish, also Future floor polish ...
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 13,112
    Omnium said:

    Muesli said:

    FPT

    AlsoLei said:

    New We Think poll (30th and 31st May fieldwork)

    🔴 Lab 46% (-1)
    🔵 Con 21% (-1)
    ⚪ Ref 13% (+1)
    🟠 LD 8% (NC)
    🟢 Green 6% (NC)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1796542301105233925

    Broken, sleazy Labour and Tories on the slide!
    No, it was Ed Davey on the slide.

    And he seemed to be having a lovely day out. I don't think Rishi or Keir would have managed that.
    And he's having another lovely day today, whilst talking about his free school meals policy:


    Sir Ed looks like the only one of the main party leaders who’s actually enjoying the campaign. I’ve not seen the photo of him on a slide but I’ll assume it’s not Mannionesque but in the same vein as the paddle boarding, the cycling and this school baking photo. Good. This election desperately needs some levity because it’s been duller than one any of Sean’s dribbling travelogues so far.
    I suspect Ed's target this year is to increase the number of seats obtained, exploit the local government base and improve local face recognition and I suspect he thinks he's meeting it, and so therefore is quite happy. The Swinson strategy is not the way forward here.
    The over-enthusiasm doesn't worry you?
    No, it only "bothers" those people who want a stick with which to beat Ed Davey.

    As I've said elsewhere, for the vast majority of voters, what they see of Ed Davey will be the extent of the LD campaigning in their seat. It's the 50-75 seats where there is serious local campaigning which matter to the party.

    As an aside, none of the parties is fighting a national campaign - my guess is the Conservatives and Labour are actively working 200 seats each, the LDs 50-75, the Greens 10, Reform 3-5. In East Ham for example, almost noting will happen - we will get a Labour leaflet but that's all.

    Anecdotally, I was handed ny first GE leaflet outside Mornington Crescent tube station by a campaigner for Andrew Feinstein who is standing as an Independent in the Holborn & St Pancras constituency.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,375
    Chris said:

    ToryJim said:

    Going by this from one of the guys at Opinium their next polling offering could be interesting.

    https://x.com/cwp_weir/status/1796548534181019877?s=46

    Jesus wept

    Just doing some double checks, but jesus wept

    Quite a good tease, as teases go.

    "Lord, by this time he stinketh", or "Lazarus come forth"?
    No medals for 4th!
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,203
    RobD said:

    ToryJim said:

    Going by this from one of the guys at Opinium their next polling offering could be interesting.

    https://x.com/cwp_weir/status/1796548534181019877?s=46

    Jesus wept

    Just doing some double checks, but jesus wept

    Poll ramping.
    Down to 10 or over 20 lead?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,579
    Foxy said:

    NEW: Westminster Voting Intention, 31st May:

    Five weeks until the election, Labour lead the Conservatives by 20 points.

    🔴Lab 44 (-)
    🔘Con 24 (-)
    🔵Reform 11 (-2)
    🟠Lib Dem 9 (+1)
    🟢Green 6 (-)
    🟡SNP 3 (-)
    ⚫️Other 3 (-)

    whitestoneinsight.com/poll-digest
    @DailyMirror / @Daily_Express

    https://x.com/WStoneInsight/status/1796572344208523495?t=FaZ2Nai-FIkLmL-XeZc31Q&s=19

    A new online pollster to me, or is it an old one relabelled?

    Can't be new. Or else what are the changes with?
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884
    edited May 31
    Selebian said:

    ToryJim said:

    FPT:

    Selebian said:

    Angela Rayner seems to have hired the Conservative Party to do her PR.

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1796546759055036550

    Oh God, they have another of those three-phrase slogans - 'Clear Plan, Bold Action, Secure Future'. :hushed:

    More like "Hands [over] Face. Displace"
    I really, really hope this style of sloganeering dies with the government. It is very annoying.
    The worst one is the train ones; see it, say it, sorted! The most annoying thing imaginable.
    Didn't someone on here post a picture of a tube train with the side completely covered in graffiti: "See it, spray it, sorted" :lol:

    ETA: Ah, yes: https://x.com/tontytrains/status/1751929135809589315
    (Also, for a long time, until I saw a poster once, I thought it was "See it. Say it. Sort it.", which at least makes a bit more sense.)
    I thought it was See It Say It Sort It when it first came in. IIRC they then made sure in future iterations the Sorted was really emphasised because of that ambiguity. There was a debate about whether “Sort It” sent the right message as it sounded like people were having to sort the problem themselves which doesn’t really help the poor sod who finds a suspicious package.

    I do fully accept this is nitpicking and semantics, but, modern society.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,408
    ToryJim said:

    Going by this from one of the guys at Opinium their next polling offering could be interesting.

    https://x.com/cwp_weir/status/1796548534181019877?s=46

    Jesus wept

    Just doing some double checks, but jesus wept

    I really hate these types of tweets from pollsters . I’ll indulge it’s either a big jump in Tory vote or Labour are over 20 points ahead. Given their fieldwork dates are the same as We Think a single digit lead for Labour would be quite a shock compared to the We Thinks 25 point lead .
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,518
    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT:

    Selebian said:

    Angela Rayner seems to have hired the Conservative Party to do her PR.

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1796546759055036550

    Oh God, they have another of those three-phrase slogans - 'Clear Plan, Bold Action, Secure Future'. :hushed:

    More like "Hands [over] Face. Displace"
    I really, really hope this style of sloganeering dies with the government. It is very annoying.
    Have they yet revealed what this Clear Plan might actually consist of?
    It does sound like the household cleaning aisle of the local supermarket, too.
    'Bold action' sounds like the dubious claims in a TV laundry powder commercial...
    Kleer floor polish, also Future floor polish ...
    where's Mr Sheen when you need him...
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,640

    ...

    ToryJim said:

    Going by this from one of the guys at Opinium their next polling offering could be interesting.

    https://x.com/cwp_weir/status/1796548534181019877?s=46

    Jesus wept

    Just doing some double checks, but jesus wept

    Same raw data as the last two weeks but after applying swingback a 20 points Tory lead.

    My guess, a Reform collapse and a hatful of Labour voters going Green.
    They should really shut up with the poll ramping. It’s never as exciting as they make out, and one poll is just one poll.

    Jesus wept implies either a very high Reform number (which would be against the run of play) or a very low Tory one (meh…other polls are available).
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,042

    RobD said:

    ToryJim said:

    Going by this from one of the guys at Opinium their next polling offering could be interesting.

    https://x.com/cwp_weir/status/1796548534181019877?s=46

    Jesus wept

    Just doing some double checks, but jesus wept

    Poll ramping.
    Down to 10 or over 20 lead?
    Big Lab to Green switch after Abbottgate.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464

    RobD said:

    ToryJim said:

    Going by this from one of the guys at Opinium their next polling offering could be interesting.

    https://x.com/cwp_weir/status/1796548534181019877?s=46

    Jesus wept

    Just doing some double checks, but jesus wept

    Poll ramping.
    Down to 10 or over 20 lead?
    It's the Davey surge pushing the Tories into third.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,401
    Foxy said:

    NEW: Westminster Voting Intention, 31st May:

    Five weeks until the election, Labour lead the Conservatives by 20 points.

    🔴Lab 44 (-)
    🔘Con 24 (-)
    🔵Reform 11 (-2)
    🟠Lib Dem 9 (+1)
    🟢Green 6 (-)
    🟡SNP 3 (-)
    ⚫️Other 3 (-)

    whitestoneinsight.com/poll-digest
    @DailyMirror / @Daily_Express

    https://x.com/WStoneInsight/status/1796572344208523495?t=FaZ2Nai-FIkLmL-XeZc31Q&s=19

    A new online pollster to me, or is it an old one relabelled?

    Founded by Andrew Hawkins, who formerly founded ComRes, before selling them to Savanta. Looks like he's decided to start all over.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884
    nico679 said:

    ToryJim said:

    Going by this from one of the guys at Opinium their next polling offering could be interesting.

    https://x.com/cwp_weir/status/1796548534181019877?s=46

    Jesus wept

    Just doing some double checks, but jesus wept

    I really hate these types of tweets from pollsters . I’ll indulge it’s either a big jump in Tory vote or Labour are over 20 points ahead. Given their fieldwork dates are the same as We Think a single digit lead for Labour would be quite a shock compared to the We Thinks 25 point lead .
    Just put the poll out there. This kind of ****teasing is just unprofessional IMHO.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    Just listened to Farage fulsome support for Trump

    Certainly Reform are not pretending to be on the right

    Will be interesting how this plays out for them
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,518
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Muesli said:

    FPT

    AlsoLei said:

    New We Think poll (30th and 31st May fieldwork)

    🔴 Lab 46% (-1)
    🔵 Con 21% (-1)
    ⚪ Ref 13% (+1)
    🟠 LD 8% (NC)
    🟢 Green 6% (NC)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1796542301105233925

    Broken, sleazy Labour and Tories on the slide!
    No, it was Ed Davey on the slide.

    And he seemed to be having a lovely day out. I don't think Rishi or Keir would have managed that.
    And he's having another lovely day today, whilst talking about his free school meals policy:


    Sir Ed looks like the only one of the main party leaders who’s actually enjoying the campaign. I’ve not seen the photo of him on a slide but I’ll assume it’s not Mannionesque but in the same vein as the paddle boarding, the cycling and this school baking photo. Good. This election desperately needs some levity because it’s been duller than one any of Sean’s dribbling travelogues so far.
    I suspect Ed's target this year is to increase the number of seats obtained, exploit the local government base and improve local face recognition and I suspect he thinks he's meeting it, and so therefore is quite happy. The Swinson strategy is not the way forward here.
    The over-enthusiasm doesn't worry you?
    not really, it's only politics after all...

    After 5th July it's back to the grind..
    I'm assuming you're not actually Ed Davey? (Given the tag)

    Anyway assuming otherwise I simply can't believe how the LDs have gotten themselves from the Clegg of 2010 to today's position.
    A lot of water has flowed under the bridge since 2010...

    and you are correct, I'm not Ed Davey...
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464
    Why is the King such a shit to his family?

    Prince Andrew, the King and the ‘siege of Royal Lodge’

    The King has told Prince Andrew that after the Epstein controversy there are to be no more royal duties and no more living at his vast house in Windsor Great Park. But in an increasingly bitter stand-off, his brother refuses to budge


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-the-king-and-the-siege-of-royal-lodge-s9t63k7mw
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559
    ToryJim said:

    Trump says some of "the witnesses on our side" were "literally crucified," adds that the Judge Merchan looks like an angel but "is the devil."

    https://x.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1796560083192873170

    Literally as in 9 inch nails and lumps of 2 by 4?
    “2-be-4? You’ll never make a good cross out of that! You need proper timber, from a proper timber merchant. And none of that Jewsons rubbish. Wink wink, nod nod. Know what I mean?”
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,518
    edited May 31

    Just listened to Farage fulsome support for Trump

    Certainly Reform are not pretending to be on the right

    Will be interesting how this plays out for them

    another cultist...

    I wonder if we shall here from the lettuce?
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884
    edited May 31

    Why is the King such a shit to his family?

    Prince Andrew, the King and the ‘siege of Royal Lodge’

    The King has told Prince Andrew that after the Epstein controversy there are to be no more royal duties and no more living at his vast house in Windsor Great Park. But in an increasingly bitter stand-off, his brother refuses to budge


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-the-king-and-the-siege-of-royal-lodge-s9t63k7mw

    Imagine your brother being Prince Andrew? Poor sod.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010

    Why is the King such a shit to his family?

    Prince Andrew, the King and the ‘siege of Royal Lodge’

    The King has told Prince Andrew that after the Epstein controversy there are to be no more royal duties and no more living at his vast house in Windsor Great Park. But in an increasingly bitter stand-off, his brother refuses to budge


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-the-king-and-the-siege-of-royal-lodge-s9t63k7mw

    Because Andrew is a shit?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,969
    Reform have more candidates in place than the Tories atm?

    One week til nominations close:

    Lab 627 (+20)
    Green (GPEW + Scottish Greens) - 573 (+9)
    Lib Dem - 530 (+16)
    Reform UK - 470 (+13)
    Conservative - 448 (+40)
    Workers Party - 173 (+4)
    SDP - 125 (+8)
    Independent - 99 (+16)
    SNP - 57 (+1)
    Plaid Cymru - 28 (+1)


    https://x.com/OwenWntr/status/1796501288517337319
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,944
    stodge said:

    Omnium said:

    Muesli said:

    FPT

    AlsoLei said:

    New We Think poll (30th and 31st May fieldwork)

    🔴 Lab 46% (-1)
    🔵 Con 21% (-1)
    ⚪ Ref 13% (+1)
    🟠 LD 8% (NC)
    🟢 Green 6% (NC)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1796542301105233925

    Broken, sleazy Labour and Tories on the slide!
    No, it was Ed Davey on the slide.

    And he seemed to be having a lovely day out. I don't think Rishi or Keir would have managed that.
    And he's having another lovely day today, whilst talking about his free school meals policy:


    Sir Ed looks like the only one of the main party leaders who’s actually enjoying the campaign. I’ve not seen the photo of him on a slide but I’ll assume it’s not Mannionesque but in the same vein as the paddle boarding, the cycling and this school baking photo. Good. This election desperately needs some levity because it’s been duller than one any of Sean’s dribbling travelogues so far.
    I suspect Ed's target this year is to increase the number of seats obtained, exploit the local government base and improve local face recognition and I suspect he thinks he's meeting it, and so therefore is quite happy. The Swinson strategy is not the way forward here.
    The over-enthusiasm doesn't worry you?
    No, it only "bothers" those people who want a stick with which to beat Ed Davey.

    As I've said elsewhere, for the vast majority of voters, what they see of Ed Davey will be the extent of the LD campaigning in their seat. It's the 50-75 seats where there is serious local campaigning which matter to the party.

    As an aside, none of the parties is fighting a national campaign - my guess is the Conservatives and Labour are actively working 200 seats each, the LDs 50-75, the Greens 10, Reform 3-5. In East Ham for example, almost noting will happen - we will get a Labour leaflet but that's all.

    Anecdotally, I was handed ny first GE leaflet outside Mornington Crescent tube station by a campaigner for Andrew Feinstein who is standing as an Independent in the Holborn & St Pancras constituency.
    It makes me cringe, but fair enough.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,401

    Foxy said:

    NEW: Westminster Voting Intention, 31st May:

    Five weeks until the election, Labour lead the Conservatives by 20 points.

    🔴Lab 44 (-)
    🔘Con 24 (-)
    🔵Reform 11 (-2)
    🟠Lib Dem 9 (+1)
    🟢Green 6 (-)
    🟡SNP 3 (-)
    ⚫️Other 3 (-)

    whitestoneinsight.com/poll-digest
    @DailyMirror / @Daily_Express

    https://x.com/WStoneInsight/status/1796572344208523495?t=FaZ2Nai-FIkLmL-XeZc31Q&s=19

    A new online pollster to me, or is it an old one relabelled?

    Founded by Andrew Hawkins, who formerly founded ComRes, before selling them to Savanta. Looks like he's decided to start all over.
    Formatting of the data tables is *very* familiar.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010
    Foxy said:

    NEW: Westminster Voting Intention, 31st May:

    Five weeks until the election, Labour lead the Conservatives by 20 points.

    🔴Lab 44 (-)
    🔘Con 24 (-)
    🔵Reform 11 (-2)
    🟠Lib Dem 9 (+1)
    🟢Green 6 (-)
    🟡SNP 3 (-)
    ⚫️Other 3 (-)

    whitestoneinsight.com/poll-digest
    @DailyMirror / @Daily_Express

    https://x.com/WStoneInsight/status/1796572344208523495?t=FaZ2Nai-FIkLmL-XeZc31Q&s=19

    A new online pollster to me, or is it an old one relabelled?

    Broken, sleazy, Trump-supporting Reform on the slide!
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    NEW: Westminster Voting Intention, 31st May:

    Five weeks until the election, Labour lead the Conservatives by 20 points.

    🔴Lab 44 (-)
    🔘Con 24 (-)
    🔵Reform 11 (-2)
    🟠Lib Dem 9 (+1)
    🟢Green 6 (-)
    🟡SNP 3 (-)
    ⚫️Other 3 (-)

    whitestoneinsight.com/poll-digest
    @DailyMirror / @Daily_Express

    https://x.com/WStoneInsight/status/1796572344208523495?t=FaZ2Nai-FIkLmL-XeZc31Q&s=19

    A new online pollster to me, or is it an old one relabelled?

    Can't be new. Or else what are the changes with?
    One previous voting intention poll, fieldwork 15-16 May, published 17 May (but they have done other polling work before, they aren't complete newbies)
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953

    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT:

    Selebian said:

    Angela Rayner seems to have hired the Conservative Party to do her PR.

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1796546759055036550

    Oh God, they have another of those three-phrase slogans - 'Clear Plan, Bold Action, Secure Future'. :hushed:

    More like "Hands [over] Face. Displace"
    I really, really hope this style of sloganeering dies with the government. It is very annoying.
    Have they yet revealed what this Clear Plan might actually consist of?
    It does sound like the household cleaning aisle of the local supermarket, too.
    'Bold action' sounds like the dubious claims in a TV laundry powder commercial...
    Kleer floor polish, also Future floor polish ...
    where's Mr Sheen when you need him...
    Very appropriate name for certain Conservative politicians, but it would be cruel to suggest whom!
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010
    edited May 31
    ToryJim said:

    FPT:

    Selebian said:

    Angela Rayner seems to have hired the Conservative Party to do her PR.

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1796546759055036550

    Oh God, they have another of those three-phrase slogans - 'Clear Plan, Bold Action, Secure Future'. :hushed:

    More like "Hands [over] Face. Displace"
    I really, really hope this style of sloganeering dies with the government. It is very annoying.
    The worst one is the train ones; see it, say it, sorted! The most annoying thing imaginable.
    I always shout out "See it, say it, SORT IT!".
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,518
    Omnium said:

    stodge said:

    Omnium said:

    Muesli said:

    FPT

    AlsoLei said:

    New We Think poll (30th and 31st May fieldwork)

    🔴 Lab 46% (-1)
    🔵 Con 21% (-1)
    ⚪ Ref 13% (+1)
    🟠 LD 8% (NC)
    🟢 Green 6% (NC)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1796542301105233925

    Broken, sleazy Labour and Tories on the slide!
    No, it was Ed Davey on the slide.

    And he seemed to be having a lovely day out. I don't think Rishi or Keir would have managed that.
    And he's having another lovely day today, whilst talking about his free school meals policy:


    Sir Ed looks like the only one of the main party leaders who’s actually enjoying the campaign. I’ve not seen the photo of him on a slide but I’ll assume it’s not Mannionesque but in the same vein as the paddle boarding, the cycling and this school baking photo. Good. This election desperately needs some levity because it’s been duller than one any of Sean’s dribbling travelogues so far.
    I suspect Ed's target this year is to increase the number of seats obtained, exploit the local government base and improve local face recognition and I suspect he thinks he's meeting it, and so therefore is quite happy. The Swinson strategy is not the way forward here.
    The over-enthusiasm doesn't worry you?
    No, it only "bothers" those people who want a stick with which to beat Ed Davey.

    As I've said elsewhere, for the vast majority of voters, what they see of Ed Davey will be the extent of the LD campaigning in their seat. It's the 50-75 seats where there is serious local campaigning which matter to the party.

    As an aside, none of the parties is fighting a national campaign - my guess is the Conservatives and Labour are actively working 200 seats each, the LDs 50-75, the Greens 10, Reform 3-5. In East Ham for example, almost noting will happen - we will get a Labour leaflet but that's all.

    Anecdotally, I was handed ny first GE leaflet outside Mornington Crescent tube station by a campaigner for Andrew Feinstein who is standing as an Independent in the Holborn & St Pancras constituency.
    It makes me cringe, but fair enough.
    you have a high cringe bar, (or is it a low one?)
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,401
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    NEW: Westminster Voting Intention, 31st May:

    Five weeks until the election, Labour lead the Conservatives by 20 points.

    🔴Lab 44 (-)
    🔘Con 24 (-)
    🔵Reform 11 (-2)
    🟠Lib Dem 9 (+1)
    🟢Green 6 (-)
    🟡SNP 3 (-)
    ⚫️Other 3 (-)

    whitestoneinsight.com/poll-digest
    @DailyMirror / @Daily_Express

    https://x.com/WStoneInsight/status/1796572344208523495?t=FaZ2Nai-FIkLmL-XeZc31Q&s=19

    A new online pollster to me, or is it an old one relabelled?

    Can't be new. Or else what are the changes with?
    Looks like it's their third ever British general election voting intention poll.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,944

    Omnium said:

    stodge said:

    Omnium said:

    Muesli said:

    FPT

    AlsoLei said:

    New We Think poll (30th and 31st May fieldwork)

    🔴 Lab 46% (-1)
    🔵 Con 21% (-1)
    ⚪ Ref 13% (+1)
    🟠 LD 8% (NC)
    🟢 Green 6% (NC)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1796542301105233925

    Broken, sleazy Labour and Tories on the slide!
    No, it was Ed Davey on the slide.

    And he seemed to be having a lovely day out. I don't think Rishi or Keir would have managed that.
    And he's having another lovely day today, whilst talking about his free school meals policy:


    Sir Ed looks like the only one of the main party leaders who’s actually enjoying the campaign. I’ve not seen the photo of him on a slide but I’ll assume it’s not Mannionesque but in the same vein as the paddle boarding, the cycling and this school baking photo. Good. This election desperately needs some levity because it’s been duller than one any of Sean’s dribbling travelogues so far.
    I suspect Ed's target this year is to increase the number of seats obtained, exploit the local government base and improve local face recognition and I suspect he thinks he's meeting it, and so therefore is quite happy. The Swinson strategy is not the way forward here.
    The over-enthusiasm doesn't worry you?
    No, it only "bothers" those people who want a stick with which to beat Ed Davey.

    As I've said elsewhere, for the vast majority of voters, what they see of Ed Davey will be the extent of the LD campaigning in their seat. It's the 50-75 seats where there is serious local campaigning which matter to the party.

    As an aside, none of the parties is fighting a national campaign - my guess is the Conservatives and Labour are actively working 200 seats each, the LDs 50-75, the Greens 10, Reform 3-5. In East Ham for example, almost noting will happen - we will get a Labour leaflet but that's all.

    Anecdotally, I was handed ny first GE leaflet outside Mornington Crescent tube station by a campaigner for Andrew Feinstein who is standing as an Independent in the Holborn & St Pancras constituency.
    It makes me cringe, but fair enough.
    you have a high cringe bar, (or is it a low one?)
    I just want to like the LDs and I can't.
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,309

    ToryJim said:

    FPT:

    Selebian said:

    Angela Rayner seems to have hired the Conservative Party to do her PR.

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1796546759055036550

    Oh God, they have another of those three-phrase slogans - 'Clear Plan, Bold Action, Secure Future'. :hushed:

    More like "Hands [over] Face. Displace"
    I really, really hope this style of sloganeering dies with the government. It is very annoying.
    The worst one is the train ones; see it, say it, sorted! The most annoying thing imaginable.
    I always shout out "See it, say it, SORT IT!".
    You're forgetting the first part of the message.

    I always hear "seen something that doesn't look right?"

    And instantly think about people getting banned off PB for misrepresenting polling sub-samples.
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,518
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT:

    Selebian said:

    Angela Rayner seems to have hired the Conservative Party to do her PR.

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1796546759055036550

    Oh God, they have another of those three-phrase slogans - 'Clear Plan, Bold Action, Secure Future'. :hushed:

    More like "Hands [over] Face. Displace"
    I really, really hope this style of sloganeering dies with the government. It is very annoying.
    Have they yet revealed what this Clear Plan might actually consist of?
    It does sound like the household cleaning aisle of the local supermarket, too.
    'Bold action' sounds like the dubious claims in a TV laundry powder commercial...
    Kleer floor polish, also Future floor polish ...
    where's Mr Sheen when you need him...
    Very appropriate name for certain Conservative politicians, but it would be cruel to suggest whom!
    someone who wears a flying hat and goggles? or even Farridge?

    too soon?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,074

    Just listened to Farage fulsome support for Trump

    Certainly Reform are not pretending to be on the right

    Will be interesting how this plays out for them

    "Vote Reform to send a message of support to President Trump."
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,063
    Muesli said:

    FPT

    AlsoLei said:

    New We Think poll (30th and 31st May fieldwork)

    🔴 Lab 46% (-1)
    🔵 Con 21% (-1)
    ⚪ Ref 13% (+1)
    🟠 LD 8% (NC)
    🟢 Green 6% (NC)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1796542301105233925

    Broken, sleazy Labour and Tories on the slide!
    No, it was Ed Davey on the slide.

    And he seemed to be having a lovely day out. I don't think Rishi or Keir would have managed that.
    And he's having another lovely day today, whilst talking about his free school meals policy:


    Sir Ed looks like the only one of the main party leaders who’s actually enjoying the campaign. I’ve not seen the photo of him on a slide but I’ll assume it’s not Mannionesque but in the same vein as the paddle boarding, the cycling and this school baking photo. Good. This election desperately needs some levity because it’s been duller than one any of Sean’s dribbling travelogues so far.
    He has nothing to lose.

    He'll gain seats no matter what he does, and there are no expectations on him, so why not have fun?
  • Options
    Rather than gesture politics, the way to solve fly tipping is to make it easier to do the right thing than the wrong thing. That means making it free/very cheap to dispose of building waste.
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,518
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    stodge said:

    Omnium said:

    Muesli said:

    FPT

    AlsoLei said:

    New We Think poll (30th and 31st May fieldwork)

    🔴 Lab 46% (-1)
    🔵 Con 21% (-1)
    ⚪ Ref 13% (+1)
    🟠 LD 8% (NC)
    🟢 Green 6% (NC)
    🟡 SNP 3% (NC)

    https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1796542301105233925

    Broken, sleazy Labour and Tories on the slide!
    No, it was Ed Davey on the slide.

    And he seemed to be having a lovely day out. I don't think Rishi or Keir would have managed that.
    And he's having another lovely day today, whilst talking about his free school meals policy:


    Sir Ed looks like the only one of the main party leaders who’s actually enjoying the campaign. I’ve not seen the photo of him on a slide but I’ll assume it’s not Mannionesque but in the same vein as the paddle boarding, the cycling and this school baking photo. Good. This election desperately needs some levity because it’s been duller than one any of Sean’s dribbling travelogues so far.
    I suspect Ed's target this year is to increase the number of seats obtained, exploit the local government base and improve local face recognition and I suspect he thinks he's meeting it, and so therefore is quite happy. The Swinson strategy is not the way forward here.
    The over-enthusiasm doesn't worry you?
    No, it only "bothers" those people who want a stick with which to beat Ed Davey.

    As I've said elsewhere, for the vast majority of voters, what they see of Ed Davey will be the extent of the LD campaigning in their seat. It's the 50-75 seats where there is serious local campaigning which matter to the party.

    As an aside, none of the parties is fighting a national campaign - my guess is the Conservatives and Labour are actively working 200 seats each, the LDs 50-75, the Greens 10, Reform 3-5. In East Ham for example, almost noting will happen - we will get a Labour leaflet but that's all.

    Anecdotally, I was handed ny first GE leaflet outside Mornington Crescent tube station by a campaigner for Andrew Feinstein who is standing as an Independent in the Holborn & St Pancras constituency.
    It makes me cringe, but fair enough.
    you have a high cringe bar, (or is it a low one?)
    I just want to like the LDs and I can't.
    we're used to it...
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT:

    Selebian said:

    Angela Rayner seems to have hired the Conservative Party to do her PR.

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1796546759055036550

    Oh God, they have another of those three-phrase slogans - 'Clear Plan, Bold Action, Secure Future'. :hushed:

    More like "Hands [over] Face. Displace"
    I really, really hope this style of sloganeering dies with the government. It is very annoying.
    Have they yet revealed what this Clear Plan might actually consist of?
    It does sound like the household cleaning aisle of the local supermarket, too.
    'Bold action' sounds like the dubious claims in a TV laundry powder commercial...
    Kleer floor polish, also Future floor polish ...
    where's Mr Sheen when you need him...
    Very appropriate name for certain Conservative politicians, but it would be cruel to suggest whom!
    someone who wears a flying hat and goggles? or even Farridge?

    too soon?
    Mr Farage? No, he's not in mind. Not a C&UP chap, see .

    TBF American pols do look as if they have been sprayed with Future, distinctly more often than British ones.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,063

    ToryJim said:

    FPT:

    Selebian said:

    Angela Rayner seems to have hired the Conservative Party to do her PR.

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1796546759055036550

    Oh God, they have another of those three-phrase slogans - 'Clear Plan, Bold Action, Secure Future'. :hushed:

    More like "Hands [over] Face. Displace"
    I really, really hope this style of sloganeering dies with the government. It is very annoying.
    The worst one is the train ones; see it, say it, sorted! The most annoying thing imaginable.
    I always shout out "See it, say it, SORT IT!".
    I saw it and said it yesterday, but the guard sorted it before British Transport Police could.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,203

    ToryJim said:

    FPT:

    Selebian said:

    Angela Rayner seems to have hired the Conservative Party to do her PR.

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1796546759055036550

    Oh God, they have another of those three-phrase slogans - 'Clear Plan, Bold Action, Secure Future'. :hushed:

    More like "Hands [over] Face. Displace"
    I really, really hope this style of sloganeering dies with the government. It is very annoying.
    The worst one is the train ones; see it, say it, sorted! The most annoying thing imaginable.
    I always shout out "See it, say it, SORT IT!".
    I'm glad we don't travel on the same trains.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,375

    Foxy said:

    NEW: Westminster Voting Intention, 31st May:

    Five weeks until the election, Labour lead the Conservatives by 20 points.

    🔴Lab 44 (-)
    🔘Con 24 (-)
    🔵Reform 11 (-2)
    🟠Lib Dem 9 (+1)
    🟢Green 6 (-)
    🟡SNP 3 (-)
    ⚫️Other 3 (-)

    whitestoneinsight.com/poll-digest
    @DailyMirror / @Daily_Express

    https://x.com/WStoneInsight/status/1796572344208523495?t=FaZ2Nai-FIkLmL-XeZc31Q&s=19

    A new online pollster to me, or is it an old one relabelled?

    Broken, sleazy, Trump-supporting Reform on the slide!
    What was the position five weeks before the 2017 election?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,319

    Why is the King such a shit to his family?

    Prince Andrew, the King and the ‘siege of Royal Lodge’

    The King has told Prince Andrew that after the Epstein controversy there are to be no more royal duties and no more living at his vast house in Windsor Great Park. But in an increasingly bitter stand-off, his brother refuses to budge


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-the-king-and-the-siege-of-royal-lodge-s9t63k7mw

    Why is the King such a shit to his family?

    Prince Andrew, the King and the ‘siege of Royal Lodge’

    The King has told Prince Andrew that after the Epstein controversy there are to be no more royal duties and no more living at his vast house in Windsor Great Park. But in an increasingly bitter stand-off, his brother refuses to budge


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-the-king-and-the-siege-of-royal-lodge-
    s9t63k7mw

    Andrew should be put out on the streets. He is a man wholly without any redeeming qualities.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,050
    Yes, as expected only a marginal difference from the Trump guilty verdict in the polling.

    However the 6% net of Independents being less likely to vote for him now than more likely is key as they will likely decide the election.

    Even if the net 40% of Republicans being now more likely to vote for Trump is more than the net 35% of Democrats being less likely to vote for him after his conviction
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,063
    nico679 said:

    ToryJim said:

    Going by this from one of the guys at Opinium their next polling offering could be interesting.

    https://x.com/cwp_weir/status/1796548534181019877?s=46

    Jesus wept

    Just doing some double checks, but jesus wept

    I really hate these types of tweets from pollsters . I’ll indulge it’s either a big jump in Tory vote or Labour are over 20 points ahead. Given their fieldwork dates are the same as We Think a single digit lead for Labour would be quite a shock compared to the We Thinks 25 point lead .
    At this stage, nothing would surprise me.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,063
    Just received a begogram from CCHQ demanding more money by 10pm tonight, because funding has dried up the last few days, or they'll have to pull the campaign in some seats.

    I can't say it's made me want to hit the 'DONATE' button.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997

    Rather than gesture politics, the way to solve fly tipping is to make it easier to do the right thing than the wrong thing. That means making it free/very cheap to dispose of building waste.

    As in all things there is a cost, and in the present financial straitjacket local authorities have little choice but to charge consumers for the service they provide
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953
    Surprised nobody has commented on this - sounds like something for the MRLP manifesto, shame the otherr parties won't be so sensible:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/31/spain-fines-budget-airlines-abusive-cabin-bag-seat-charges-easyjet-ryanair

    'In the biggest sanction issued by the Spanish government’s ministry of social rights and consumer affairs, the carriers easyJet, Ryanair, Vueling and Volotea have been penalised after an investigation launched last summer.

    Under the judgment, the four airlines face being banned from charging passengers for cabin luggage in the future.

    The Spanish news outlet Cadena SER reported that the fines would total €150m, with the airlines also being censured for charging passengers extra fees to reserve adjacent seats for children and other dependents.'
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,050

    Why is the King such a shit to his family?

    Prince Andrew, the King and the ‘siege of Royal Lodge’

    The King has told Prince Andrew that after the Epstein controversy there are to be no more royal duties and no more living at his vast house in Windsor Great Park. But in an increasingly bitter stand-off, his brother refuses to budge


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-the-king-and-the-siege-of-royal-lodge-s9t63k7mw

    As Windsor Great Park is state owned and he is no longer doing royal duties that would justify him living in state funded accomodation like Royal Lodge.

  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,133

    Selebian said:

    ToryJim said:

    Trump says some of "the witnesses on our side" were "literally crucified," adds that the Judge Merchan looks like an angel but "is the devil."

    https://x.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1796560083192873170

    Literally as in 9 inch nails and lumps of 2 by 4?
    He's presumably referring to Jesus. Would have been a powerful witness had he been available to testify. Gestas, too, maybe. He could well be a Trumpite, I guess.
    If he wants to do time, then insulting the judge is a good way of getting there.
    That's obviously what Trump wants.

    However, the judge will NOT oblige him. Instead, just add more to the fine.

    Which DJT can pay by selling even more Bibles with the words of Trump in red. Even the dumbest MAGA-maniac (such as PB's own DJT cheerleader) will NOT find that very outrageous.

    Heck, they can even chip in, and thus get a warm glow in their _________ (fill in the blank).
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    edited May 31

    Just received a begogram from CCHQ demanding more money by 10pm tonight, because funding has dried up the last few days, or they'll have to pull the campaign in some seats.

    I can't say it's made me want to hit the 'DONATE' button.

    Surely Mrs Sunak could drop a few million quid in the collecting tin
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953
    HYUFD said:

    Why is the King such a shit to his family?

    Prince Andrew, the King and the ‘siege of Royal Lodge’

    The King has told Prince Andrew that after the Epstein controversy there are to be no more royal duties and no more living at his vast house in Windsor Great Park. But in an increasingly bitter stand-off, his brother refuses to budge


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-the-king-and-the-siege-of-royal-lodge-s9t63k7mw

    As Windsor Great Park is state owned and he is no longer doing royal duties that would justify him living in state funded accomodation like Royal Lodge.

    Conflating the RF with the State, I see.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,628

    Rather than gesture politics, the way to solve fly tipping is to make it easier to do the right thing than the wrong thing. That means making it free/very cheap to dispose of building waste.

    So if a company who charge to dispose of waste gets a completely free service from the council and that cost has to be covered by tax payers is that ok?

    You don’t get your bins emptied for free, it’s covered by the council tax but you aren’t charging your neighbours to put their rubbish in your bin so it’s fair.

    Even if they do reduce the costs people will still fly tip because they are inconsiderate lazy fuckers - you just have to see the general British attitude to littering - and so an extra stick is useful and points off driving licences is actually something that’s going to affect someone who has to drive for a living to dump rubbish in woodlands.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,050
    edited May 31

    Just received a begogram from CCHQ demanding more money by 10pm tonight, because funding has dried up the last few days, or they'll have to pull the campaign in some seats.

    I can't say it's made me want to hit the 'DONATE' button.

    Surely Rishi, net worth 3/4 of a billion, Sunak can cough up a few quid for his target seats?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,375

    Just received a begogram from CCHQ demanding more money by 10pm tonight, because funding has dried up the last few days, or they'll have to pull the campaign in some seats.

    I can't say it's made me want to hit the 'DONATE' button.

    Well, if there are many Newcastle under Lyme type seats there’s been a lot of money wasted.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    HYUFD said:

    Why is the King such a shit to his family?

    Prince Andrew, the King and the ‘siege of Royal Lodge’

    The King has told Prince Andrew that after the Epstein controversy there are to be no more royal duties and no more living at his vast house in Windsor Great Park. But in an increasingly bitter stand-off, his brother refuses to budge


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-the-king-and-the-siege-of-royal-lodge-s9t63k7mw

    As Windsor Great Park is state owned and he is no longer doing royal duties that would justify him living in state funded accomodation like Royal Lodge.

    Can't Charles just get some of those chaps with furry hats and the SA80s to encourage Andrew to move out.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997

    nico679 said:

    ToryJim said:

    Going by this from one of the guys at Opinium their next polling offering could be interesting.

    https://x.com/cwp_weir/status/1796548534181019877?s=46

    Jesus wept

    Just doing some double checks, but jesus wept

    I really hate these types of tweets from pollsters . I’ll indulge it’s either a big jump in Tory vote or Labour are over 20 points ahead. Given their fieldwork dates are the same as We Think a single digit lead for Labour would be quite a shock compared to the We Thinks 25 point lead .
    At this stage, nothing would surprise me.
    Frankly I am reconciled to Starmer in no 10 with a substantial majority and the sooner the better so we can all move on and forget the obsession with polls which largely have all been with MOE
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,050
    Sean_F said:

    Why is the King such a shit to his family?

    Prince Andrew, the King and the ‘siege of Royal Lodge’

    The King has told Prince Andrew that after the Epstein controversy there are to be no more royal duties and no more living at his vast house in Windsor Great Park. But in an increasingly bitter stand-off, his brother refuses to budge


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-the-king-and-the-siege-of-royal-lodge-s9t63k7mw

    Why is the King such a shit to his family?

    Prince Andrew, the King and the ‘siege of Royal Lodge’

    The King has told Prince Andrew that after the Epstein controversy there are to be no more royal duties and no more living at his vast house in Windsor Great Park. But in an increasingly bitter stand-off, his brother refuses to budge


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-the-king-and-the-siege-of-royal-lodge-
    s9t63k7mw

    Andrew should be put out on the streets. He is a man wholly without any redeeming qualities.

    To be fair to him he is a Falklands veteran, he has more than enough assets and savings to get his own accomodation
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953

    Rather than gesture politics, the way to solve fly tipping is to make it easier to do the right thing than the wrong thing. That means making it free/very cheap to dispose of building waste.

    As in all things there is a cost, and in the present financial straitjacket local authorities have little choice but to charge consumers for the service they provide
    They're also responsible for clearing litter and rubbish, including fly-tipping.

    (Unless it is on private land in which case the landowner is nowadays responsible. No money as you say.)
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,063
    ToryJim said:

    Just received a begogram from CCHQ demanding more money by 10pm tonight, because funding has dried up the last few days, or they'll have to pull the campaign in some seats.

    I can't say it's made me want to hit the 'DONATE' button.

    Surely Mrs Sunak could drop a few million quid in the collecting tin
    It might just be it's a badly run and resourced operation.

    I think there's actually quite a lot to go at on Labour, as @MarqueeMark and I have highlighted, and a competent campaign could certainly put a dent in their lead. But, (a) CCHQ wasn't ready and neither were the MPs and (b) I'm not sure Sunak has the discipline to execute it, even once you account for the fact he's the Chris Robshaw of decision-makers in the political sphere.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,969

    Just received a begogram from CCHQ demanding more money by 10pm tonight, because funding has dried up the last few days, or they'll have to pull the campaign in some seats.

    I can't say it's made me want to hit the 'DONATE' button.

    Would it be unkind to suggest that, given they are lacking 200 or so candidates, they can afford to pull the campaign in some seats?
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Why is the King such a shit to his family?

    Prince Andrew, the King and the ‘siege of Royal Lodge’

    The King has told Prince Andrew that after the Epstein controversy there are to be no more royal duties and no more living at his vast house in Windsor Great Park. But in an increasingly bitter stand-off, his brother refuses to budge


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-the-king-and-the-siege-of-royal-lodge-s9t63k7mw

    Why is the King such a shit to his family?

    Prince Andrew, the King and the ‘siege of Royal Lodge’

    The King has told Prince Andrew that after the Epstein controversy there are to be no more royal duties and no more living at his vast house in Windsor Great Park. But in an increasingly bitter stand-off, his brother refuses to budge


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-the-king-and-the-siege-of-royal-lodge-
    s9t63k7mw

    Andrew should be put out on the streets. He is a man wholly without any redeeming qualities.

    To be fair to him he is a Falklands veteran, he has more than enough assets and savings to get his own accomodation
    Not at the moment, after the world heard how he was so kind hearted to give millions to a woman he never met for a thing he didn't do, every Nigerian prince has asked him for just a few thousand to help transfer some cash out of the country.
  • Options
    boulay said:

    Rather than gesture politics, the way to solve fly tipping is to make it easier to do the right thing than the wrong thing. That means making it free/very cheap to dispose of building waste.

    So if a company who charge to dispose of waste gets a completely free service from the council and that cost has to be covered by tax payers is that ok?

    You don’t get your bins emptied for free, it’s covered by the council tax but you aren’t charging your neighbours to put their rubbish in your bin so it’s fair.

    Even if they do reduce the costs people will still fly tip because they are inconsiderate lazy fuckers - you just have to see the general British attitude to littering - and so an extra stick is useful and points off driving licences is actually something that’s going to affect someone who has to drive for a living to dump rubbish in woodlands.
    Fly tipping started in massive amounts when austerity began. A coincidence? Absolutely not.

    Yes disposing of waste should be free.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,050
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Why is the King such a shit to his family?

    Prince Andrew, the King and the ‘siege of Royal Lodge’

    The King has told Prince Andrew that after the Epstein controversy there are to be no more royal duties and no more living at his vast house in Windsor Great Park. But in an increasingly bitter stand-off, his brother refuses to budge


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-the-king-and-the-siege-of-royal-lodge-s9t63k7mw

    As Windsor Great Park is state owned and he is no longer doing royal duties that would justify him living in state funded accomodation like Royal Lodge.

    Conflating the RF with the State, I see.
    The head of it is literally Head of State
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997

    boulay said:

    Rather than gesture politics, the way to solve fly tipping is to make it easier to do the right thing than the wrong thing. That means making it free/very cheap to dispose of building waste.

    So if a company who charge to dispose of waste gets a completely free service from the council and that cost has to be covered by tax payers is that ok?

    You don’t get your bins emptied for free, it’s covered by the council tax but you aren’t charging your neighbours to put their rubbish in your bin so it’s fair.

    Even if they do reduce the costs people will still fly tip because they are inconsiderate lazy fuckers - you just have to see the general British attitude to littering - and so an extra stick is useful and points off driving licences is actually something that’s going to affect someone who has to drive for a living to dump rubbish in woodlands.
    Fly tipping started in massive amounts when austerity began. A coincidence? Absolutely not.

    Yes disposing of waste should be free.
    Why when it is the local authorities responsibility and they have no money

  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Why is the King such a shit to his family?

    Prince Andrew, the King and the ‘siege of Royal Lodge’

    The King has told Prince Andrew that after the Epstein controversy there are to be no more royal duties and no more living at his vast house in Windsor Great Park. But in an increasingly bitter stand-off, his brother refuses to budge


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-the-king-and-the-siege-of-royal-lodge-s9t63k7mw

    As Windsor Great Park is state owned and he is no longer doing royal duties that would justify him living in state funded accomodation like Royal Lodge.

    Conflating the RF with the State, I see.
    The head of it is literally Head of State
    Doesn't mean all those are his private property. Or the King's to dispose of.
This discussion has been closed.