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Only 17% of Americans expect Trump to serve time – politicalbetting.com
Only 17% of Americans expect Trump to serve time – politicalbetting.com
May 30-31 poll of 2,657 U.S. adults • 44% think Donald Trump should serve time in prison for his conviction in the hush-money case• 40% say he shouldn't serve time• 17% say he will serve time• 54% say he won't serve timehttps://t.co/eWQDNZeLkEhttps://t.co/UlnvdjgNF1 pic.twitter.com/x1jgPi0foJ
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https://x.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1796560083192873170
NickyBreakspear said:
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I understand your view point. I do not want to change the six polling companies because they are the six which have produced weekly polling for almost 2 years.
I do not include More in Common which have provided weekly polls recently because if I did, I would not be able to compare on a consistent basis with the average now and the average 12 months ago.
The average is not trying to predict anything; all it is is a tracker of six polling companies with their particular in house methodologies. I am not suggesting that those six polling companies are any better than any other polling company.
What it does enable is a consistent approach to try and discover whether there has been movement from week to week in that average. By using an average of polls it should reduce statisical polling errors.
I think that we are likely to have weekly polls from More in Common, Opinium, Survation, BMG and potentially JL Partners as well as my six from now until 4 July. Other calculations of averages are quite feasible and will show different attributes.
BigJohnOwls said
Thats fine mate it is still a very useful thing to do
I was wondering if a slight tweak might improve it but when you explain about the 12 month trend I understand
Keep up the good work.
UK Polling Wiki is always also available for people too if they want to see all pollsters
An interesting sidelight on how he thinks about women, if nothing else.
[Edit: The judge is a man??]
ETA: Ah, yes: https://x.com/tontytrains/status/1751929135809589315
(Also, for a long time, until I saw a poster once, I thought it was "See it. Say it. Sort it.", which at least makes a bit more sense.)
After 5th July it's back to the grind..
https://x.com/cwp_weir/status/1796548534181019877?s=46
Jesus wept
Just doing some double checks, but jesus wept
Anyway assuming otherwise I simply can't believe how the LDs have gotten themselves from the Clegg of 2010 to today's position.
Probably not to everyone's taste, but he's certainly improved his presentation skills since the bacon sandwich.
https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1796531123318562987
Every. Time.
Let's not glorify kitten murder folks.
However. Opinium have been one of the consistently "low" lead forecasters.
14-18% this year.
So. Single figures. Or mid 20's.
But most likely ramping.
"Lord, by this time he stinketh", or "Lazarus come forth"?
Five weeks until the election, Labour lead the Conservatives by 20 points.
🔴Lab 44 (-)
🔘Con 24 (-)
🔵Reform 11 (-2)
🟠Lib Dem 9 (+1)
🟢Green 6 (-)
🟡SNP 3 (-)
⚫️Other 3 (-)
whitestoneinsight.com/poll-digest
@DailyMirror / @Daily_Express
https://x.com/WStoneInsight/status/1796572344208523495?t=FaZ2Nai-FIkLmL-XeZc31Q&s=19
A new online pollster to me, or is it an old one relabelled?
My guess, a Reform collapse and a hatful of Labour voters going Green.
As I've said elsewhere, for the vast majority of voters, what they see of Ed Davey will be the extent of the LD campaigning in their seat. It's the 50-75 seats where there is serious local campaigning which matter to the party.
As an aside, none of the parties is fighting a national campaign - my guess is the Conservatives and Labour are actively working 200 seats each, the LDs 50-75, the Greens 10, Reform 3-5. In East Ham for example, almost noting will happen - we will get a Labour leaflet but that's all.
Anecdotally, I was handed ny first GE leaflet outside Mornington Crescent tube station by a campaigner for Andrew Feinstein who is standing as an Independent in the Holborn & St Pancras constituency.
I do fully accept this is nitpicking and semantics, but, modern society.
Jesus wept implies either a very high Reform number (which would be against the run of play) or a very low Tory one (meh…other polls are available).
Certainly Reform are not pretending to be on the right
Will be interesting how this plays out for them
and you are correct, I'm not Ed Davey...
Prince Andrew, the King and the ‘siege of Royal Lodge’
The King has told Prince Andrew that after the Epstein controversy there are to be no more royal duties and no more living at his vast house in Windsor Great Park. But in an increasingly bitter stand-off, his brother refuses to budge
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-the-king-and-the-siege-of-royal-lodge-s9t63k7mw
I wonder if we shall here from the lettuce?
One week til nominations close:
Lab 627 (+20)
Green (GPEW + Scottish Greens) - 573 (+9)
Lib Dem - 530 (+16)
Reform UK - 470 (+13)
Conservative - 448 (+40)
Workers Party - 173 (+4)
SDP - 125 (+8)
Independent - 99 (+16)
SNP - 57 (+1)
Plaid Cymru - 28 (+1)
https://x.com/OwenWntr/status/1796501288517337319
I always hear "seen something that doesn't look right?"
And instantly think about people getting banned off PB for misrepresenting polling sub-samples.
too soon?
He'll gain seats no matter what he does, and there are no expectations on him, so why not have fun?
TBF American pols do look as if they have been sprayed with Future, distinctly more often than British ones.
However the 6% net of Independents being less likely to vote for him now than more likely is key as they will likely decide the election.
Even if the net 40% of Republicans being now more likely to vote for Trump is more than the net 35% of Democrats being less likely to vote for him after his conviction
I can't say it's made me want to hit the 'DONATE' button.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/31/spain-fines-budget-airlines-abusive-cabin-bag-seat-charges-easyjet-ryanair
'In the biggest sanction issued by the Spanish government’s ministry of social rights and consumer affairs, the carriers easyJet, Ryanair, Vueling and Volotea have been penalised after an investigation launched last summer.
Under the judgment, the four airlines face being banned from charging passengers for cabin luggage in the future.
The Spanish news outlet Cadena SER reported that the fines would total €150m, with the airlines also being censured for charging passengers extra fees to reserve adjacent seats for children and other dependents.'
However, the judge will NOT oblige him. Instead, just add more to the fine.
Which DJT can pay by selling even more Bibles with the words of Trump in red. Even the dumbest MAGA-maniac (such as PB's own DJT cheerleader) will NOT find that very outrageous.
Heck, they can even chip in, and thus get a warm glow in their _________ (fill in the blank).
You don’t get your bins emptied for free, it’s covered by the council tax but you aren’t charging your neighbours to put their rubbish in your bin so it’s fair.
Even if they do reduce the costs people will still fly tip because they are inconsiderate lazy fuckers - you just have to see the general British attitude to littering - and so an extra stick is useful and points off driving licences is actually something that’s going to affect someone who has to drive for a living to dump rubbish in woodlands.
(Unless it is on private land in which case the landowner is nowadays responsible. No money as you say.)
I think there's actually quite a lot to go at on Labour, as @MarqueeMark and I have highlighted, and a competent campaign could certainly put a dent in their lead. But, (a) CCHQ wasn't ready and neither were the MPs and (b) I'm not sure Sunak has the discipline to execute it, even once you account for the fact he's the Chris Robshaw of decision-makers in the political sphere.
Yes disposing of waste should be free.