Just received a begogram from CCHQ demanding more money by 10pm tonight, because funding has dried up the last few days, or they'll have to pull the campaign in some seats.
I can't say it's made me want to hit the 'DONATE' button.
Would it be unkind to suggest that, given they are lacking 200 or so candidates, they can afford to pull the campaign in some seats?
The negative publicity of not fielding a full slate might end up causing more problems than wasting money on an obvious lost cause.
We've had Ayrshire hotelier, and Home Alone 2 'star'.
For the next header, can we use his nemesis Michael Cohen's quote ? ""A cheat, a mobster, a liar, a fraud, a bully, a racist, a predator, and a con man"...
And he seemed to be having a lovely day out. I don't think Rishi or Keir would have managed that.
And he's having another lovely day today, whilst talking about his free school meals policy:
Sir Ed looks like the only one of the main party leaders who’s actually enjoying the campaign. I’ve not seen the photo of him on a slide but I’ll assume it’s not Mannionesque but in the same vein as the paddle boarding, the cycling and this school baking photo. Good. This election desperately needs some levity because it’s been duller than one any of Sean’s dribbling travelogues so far.
I suspect Ed's target this year is to increase the number of seats obtained, exploit the local government base and improve local face recognition and I suspect he thinks he's meeting it, and so therefore is quite happy. The Swinson strategy is not the way forward here.
The over-enthusiasm doesn't worry you?
No, it only "bothers" those people who want a stick with which to beat Ed Davey.
As I've said elsewhere, for the vast majority of voters, what they see of Ed Davey will be the extent of the LD campaigning in their seat. It's the 50-75 seats where there is serious local campaigning which matter to the party.
As an aside, none of the parties is fighting a national campaign - my guess is the Conservatives and Labour are actively working 200 seats each, the LDs 50-75, the Greens 10, Reform 3-5. In East Ham for example, almost noting will happen - we will get a Labour leaflet but that's all.
Anecdotally, I was handed ny first GE leaflet outside Mornington Crescent tube station by a campaigner for Andrew Feinstein who is standing as an Independent in the Holborn & St Pancras constituency.
It makes me cringe, but fair enough.
you have a high cringe bar, (or is it a low one?)
I just want to like the LDs and I can't.
we're used to it...
And I'd respect that if the LDs stood for some great thing. They don't though. The LDs great talent over the last few years has been finding new wilderness to get lost in.
Prince Andrew, the King and the ‘siege of Royal Lodge’
The King has told Prince Andrew that after the Epstein controversy there are to be no more royal duties and no more living at his vast house in Windsor Great Park. But in an increasingly bitter stand-off, his brother refuses to budge
As Windsor Great Park is state owned and he is no longer doing royal duties that would justify him living in state funded accomodation like Royal Lodge.
Conflating the RF with the State, I see.
The head of it is literally Head of State
Doesn't mean all those are his private property. Or the King's to dispose of.
They are if the resident does no work for the state.
Nobody is suggesting the King can bulldoze Royal Lodge, just move out the current tenant (and ideally put the Prince and Princess of Wales in instead)
Just received a begogram from CCHQ demanding more money by 10pm tonight, because funding has dried up the last few days, or they'll have to pull the campaign in some seats.
I can't say it's made me want to hit the 'DONATE' button.
Would it be unkind to suggest that, given they are lacking 200 or so candidates, they can afford to pull the campaign in some seats?
Finding a paper candidate for an unwinnable seat like East Ham shouldn't be difficult. It's finding those where they might still have a chance which is difficult.
I suspect the Conservatives are actively fighting 150-200 seats at most given paucity of human resources, not money. Labour are probably fighting 200-250 seats hard but both seats will move activists to other seats if needed.
Noone is going to want to waste any time fighting a seat like East Ham.
Just received a begogram from CCHQ demanding more money by 10pm tonight, because funding has dried up the last few days, or they'll have to pull the campaign in some seats.
I can't say it's made me want to hit the 'DONATE' button.
Would it be unkind to suggest that, given they are lacking 200 or so candidates, they can afford to pull the campaign in some seats?
The negative publicity of not fielding a full slate might end up causing more problems than wasting money on an obvious lost cause.
And it doesn't cost much to field a paper candidate.
And he seemed to be having a lovely day out. I don't think Rishi or Keir would have managed that.
And he's having another lovely day today, whilst talking about his free school meals policy:
Sir Ed looks like the only one of the main party leaders who’s actually enjoying the campaign. I’ve not seen the photo of him on a slide but I’ll assume it’s not Mannionesque but in the same vein as the paddle boarding, the cycling and this school baking photo. Good. This election desperately needs some levity because it’s been duller than one any of Sean’s dribbling travelogues so far.
I suspect Ed's target this year is to increase the number of seats obtained, exploit the local government base and improve local face recognition and I suspect he thinks he's meeting it, and so therefore is quite happy. The Swinson strategy is not the way forward here.
The over-enthusiasm doesn't worry you?
No, it only "bothers" those people who want a stick with which to beat Ed Davey.
As I've said elsewhere, for the vast majority of voters, what they see of Ed Davey will be the extent of the LD campaigning in their seat. It's the 50-75 seats where there is serious local campaigning which matter to the party.
As an aside, none of the parties is fighting a national campaign - my guess is the Conservatives and Labour are actively working 200 seats each, the LDs 50-75, the Greens 10, Reform 3-5. In East Ham for example, almost noting will happen - we will get a Labour leaflet but that's all.
Anecdotally, I was handed ny first GE leaflet outside Mornington Crescent tube station by a campaigner for Andrew Feinstein who is standing as an Independent in the Holborn & St Pancras constituency.
It makes me cringe, but fair enough.
you have a high cringe bar, (or is it a low one?)
I just want to like the LDs and I can't.
we're used to it...
And I'd respect that if the LDs stood for some great thing. They don't though. The LDs great talent over the last few years has been finding new wilderness to get lost in.
Rather than gesture politics, the way to solve fly tipping is to make it easier to do the right thing than the wrong thing. That means making it free/very cheap to dispose of building waste.
So if a company who charge to dispose of waste gets a completely free service from the council and that cost has to be covered by tax payers is that ok?
You don’t get your bins emptied for free, it’s covered by the council tax but you aren’t charging your neighbours to put their rubbish in your bin so it’s fair.
Even if they do reduce the costs people will still fly tip because they are inconsiderate lazy fuckers - you just have to see the general British attitude to littering - and so an extra stick is useful and points off driving licences is actually something that’s going to affect someone who has to drive for a living to dump rubbish in woodlands.
Fly tipping started in massive amounts when austerity began. A coincidence? Absolutely not.
Yes disposing of waste should be free.
Why when it is the local authorities responsibility and they have no money
Because it's nicer than having rubbish piled up in the layby and it's cheaper than monitoring and investigating flytipping enough to deter people from doing it.
You have a choice
Either the Local Authorities pays, Westminster pays, or the consumer
Just received a begogram from CCHQ demanding more money by 10pm tonight, because funding has dried up the last few days, or they'll have to pull the campaign in some seats.
I can't say it's made me want to hit the 'DONATE' button.
Would it be unkind to suggest that, given they are lacking 200 or so candidates, they can afford to pull the campaign in some seats?
Finding a paper candidate for an unwinnable seat like East Ham shouldn't be difficult. It's finding those where they might still have a chance which is difficult.
I suspect the Conservatives are actively fighting 150-200 seats at most given paucity of human resources, not money. Labour are probably fighting 200-250 seats hard but both seats will move activists to other seats if needed.
Noone is going to want to waste any time fighting a seat like East Ham.
Interesting to ponder what the Tories will do in my seat North Dorset. One of they're top 20 safe seats but Labour seem not to be bothering and the LDs will go hard. I think the Tories will have to put some effort in here.
Rather than gesture politics, the way to solve fly tipping is to make it easier to do the right thing than the wrong thing. That means making it free/very cheap to dispose of building waste.
So if a company who charge to dispose of waste gets a completely free service from the council and that cost has to be covered by tax payers is that ok?
You don’t get your bins emptied for free, it’s covered by the council tax but you aren’t charging your neighbours to put their rubbish in your bin so it’s fair.
Even if they do reduce the costs people will still fly tip because they are inconsiderate lazy fuckers - you just have to see the general British attitude to littering - and so an extra stick is useful and points off driving licences is actually something that’s going to affect someone who has to drive for a living to dump rubbish in woodlands.
Fly tipping started in massive amounts when austerity began. A coincidence? Absolutely not.
Yes disposing of waste should be free.
Why when it is the local authorities responsibility and they have no money
Because it's nicer than having rubbish piled up in the layby and it's cheaper than monitoring and investigating flytipping enough to deter people from doing it.
You have a choice
Either the Local Authorities pays, Westminster pays, or the consumer
Is there that big a difference between the first two? It's either taxpayer or producer.
Taxpayers are over taxed according to all the politicians and this is the dishonesty in our politics when taxes will have to rise or more of the above will happen
It's nearly daily now with senior Tories genuflecting before Trump. This is why they need to lose and lose badly. We really don't want that shit here.
Labour have said they'll find "common cause" with Trump.
It's more a question of realpolitik - if Trump wins (and assuming Starmer does) there will need to be some form of Anglo-American relationship and while that might be difficult at some levels, there will be a pragmatism at work which will ensure it's civil if not cordial.
The other thing we don't know is who would be in a Trump 2025-29 administration - I can't imagine many of those who served from 2017-21 wanting a second go so who would be, for example, the likely SoS?
Just received a begogram from CCHQ demanding more money by 10pm tonight, because funding has dried up the last few days, or they'll have to pull the campaign in some seats.
I can't say it's made me want to hit the 'DONATE' button.
Would it be unkind to suggest that, given they are lacking 200 or so candidates, they can afford to pull the campaign in some seats?
Finding a paper candidate for an unwinnable seat like East Ham shouldn't be difficult. It's finding those where they might still have a chance which is difficult.
I suspect the Conservatives are actively fighting 150-200 seats at most given paucity of human resources, not money. Labour are probably fighting 200-250 seats hard but both seats will move activists to other seats if needed.
Noone is going to want to waste any time fighting a seat like East Ham.
My sense is the Conservatives are actively fighting 150-200, yes.
It's nearly daily now with senior Tories genuflecting before Trump. This is why they need to lose and lose badly. We really don't want that shit here.
I think this is what Casino Royale calls "social proof". It's a badge of honour among a large portion of the British Right to support Trump as proof that they are an independent free-thinker, not shackled to the left-wing consensus that is hobbling Britain.
But it's actually a sign of brain rot due to spending too much time in the social media echo chamber.
It's nearly daily now with senior Tories genuflecting before Trump. This is why they need to lose and lose badly. We really don't want that shit here.
Except the reverse might happen.
If Rishi and Hunt lead the Tories to landslide defeat, Boris can say 'told you so' and if a new Tory Opposition leader proves a dud come back to 'save' the Conservatives in Opposition and take advantage of any Starmer government unpopularity.
After all if Trump does manage to beat Biden in a rematch after Biden beat him in 2020, Boris will think why can't he have another go at Starmer too now Rishi flopped against him?
If Rishi wins and Biden is re elected however, that would kill off any talk of a Boris comeback and finish Trump too
I had a look at where Labour is sending activists from its “how to help” webpage. I found 256 constituencies where activists are being directed - seats Labour thinks are in play. They include all but one seat in Scotland so from here I am referring to England and Wales only.
On the whole, the seats chosen are very bullish. They include 174 Conservative seats from 2019 (notional). That is every Conservative seat with a majority under 28% and over half of seats with a majority up to 32%...
But there are some seats suggesting serious weakness. Here are those with the largest notional Labour majorities:
1. Birmingham Ladywood (73%) 2. Bethnal Green & Stepney (63%) 3. Bradford West (61%) 4. Birmingham Perry Barr (48%) 5. Leicester South (46%) 6. Blackburn (3%)
It's nearly daily now with senior Tories genuflecting before Trump. This is why they need to lose and lose badly. We really don't want that shit here.
Labour have said they'll find "common cause" with Trump.
It's more a question of realpolitik - if Trump wins (and assuming Starmer does) there will need to be some form of Anglo-American relationship and while that might be difficult at some levels, there will be a pragmatism at work which will ensure it's civil if not cordial.
The other thing we don't know is who would be in a Trump 2025-29 administration - I can't imagine many of those who served from 2017-21 wanting a second go so who would be, for example, the likely SoS?
A corporate type with cur like loyalty to DJT. Maybe Ramaswamy or Robert Bigelow.
Forgive me, I'm out of the loop. The most notable sentence in Johnson's piece looks to me to be;
"On the most important geo-strategic issue of our time, the freedom of Ukraine, he has the energy and coherence to ensure we get the right answer: the defeat of Putin, and a clear message to the world, especially China, that aggression does not pay."
Last I heard, Both Trump and the GOP were pretty uncomplicatedly aping Mearsheimer vis-a-vis Ukraine.
Is this projection from Boris, or has Trump turned?
Just received a begogram from CCHQ demanding more money by 10pm tonight, because funding has dried up the last few days, or they'll have to pull the campaign in some seats.
I can't say it's made me want to hit the 'DONATE' button.
It is difficult to know which strategy to go for isn't. I'm like you, I am more motivated by the positive message. You know, it is all going great, but we could really do with a bit more money to do just that little bit extra, but for others it is the we are desperate message that works.
Whatever it is all bollocks anyway. Just playing on your emotions to get you to cough up. The LDs are currently using the we just need this to do this bit extra and we have a donor who will match your contributions if we can raise £100,000 by whenever.
I had a look at where Labour is sending activists from its “how to help” webpage. I found 256 constituencies where activists are being directed - seats Labour thinks are in play. They include all but one seat in Scotland so from here I am referring to England and Wales only.
On the whole, the seats chosen are very bullish. They include 174 Conservative seats from 2019 (notional). That is every Conservative seat with a majority under 28% and over half of seats with a majority up to 32%...
But there are some seats suggesting serious weakness. Here are those with the largest notional Labour majorities:
1. Birmingham Ladywood (73%) 2. Bethnal Green & Stepney (63%) 3. Bradford West (61%) 4. Birmingham Perry Barr (48%) 5. Leicester South (46%) 6. Blackburn (3%)
Well, it's not hard to see what those six seats have in common. There will be efforts to publicise Labour's more balanced line on Gaza through the rest of the campaign. Whether that will be enough, I don't know. It would be interesting to know how many of those six seats Galloway's mob are standing in.
Forgive me, I'm out of the loop. The most notable sentence in Johnson's piece looks to me to be;
"On the most important geo-strategic issue of our time, the freedom of Ukraine, he has the energy and coherence to ensure we get the right answer: the defeat of Putin, and a clear message to the world, especially China, that aggression does not pay."
Last I heard, Both Trump and the GOP were pretty uncomplicatedly aping Mearsheimer vis-a-vis Ukraine.
Is this projection from Boris, or has Trump turned?
There have been suggestions that he may have started to realise the gravity of the situation in Ukraine. However, this is Trump and so would not like to rely on that.
I had a look at where Labour is sending activists from its “how to help” webpage. I found 256 constituencies where activists are being directed - seats Labour thinks are in play. They include all but one seat in Scotland so from here I am referring to England and Wales only.
On the whole, the seats chosen are very bullish. They include 174 Conservative seats from 2019 (notional). That is every Conservative seat with a majority under 28% and over half of seats with a majority up to 32%...
But there are some seats suggesting serious weakness. Here are those with the largest notional Labour majorities:
1. Birmingham Ladywood (73%) 2. Bethnal Green & Stepney (63%) 3. Bradford West (61%) 4. Birmingham Perry Barr (48%) 5. Leicester South (46%) 6. Blackburn (3%)
My take on that is that betting on Labour in Scotland could be value, even in seats where they are nominally in 3rd place.
I had a look at where Labour is sending activists from its “how to help” webpage. I found 256 constituencies where activists are being directed - seats Labour thinks are in play. They include all but one seat in Scotland so from here I am referring to England and Wales only.
On the whole, the seats chosen are very bullish. They include 174 Conservative seats from 2019 (notional). That is every Conservative seat with a majority under 28% and over half of seats with a majority up to 32%...
But there are some seats suggesting serious weakness. Here are those with the largest notional Labour majorities:
1. Birmingham Ladywood (73%) 2. Bethnal Green & Stepney (63%) 3. Bradford West (61%) 4. Birmingham Perry Barr (48%) 5. Leicester South (46%) 6. Blackburn (3%)
My take on that is that betting on Labour in Scotland could be value, even in seats where they are nominally in 3rd place.
It's nearly daily now with senior Tories genuflecting before Trump. This is why they need to lose and lose badly. We really don't want that shit here.
I think this is what Casino Royale calls "social proof". It's a badge of honour among a large portion of the British Right to support Trump as proof that they are an independent free-thinker, not shackled to the left-wing consensus that is hobbling Britain.
But it's actually a sign of brain rot due to spending too much time in the social media echo chamber.
Brain rot is the thing, they aren’t thinking they are just playing a version of opposite association whereby if the left says up they have to say down. It’s just the most insane way of approaching how to position yourself. They take critical scepticism and turn it into a form of gullible credulity whereby they believe any old shit to “own” their opponents.
It's nearly daily now with senior Tories genuflecting before Trump. This is why they need to lose and lose badly. We really don't want that shit here.
David Lammy spent 2 days last week doing the same
Presumably he is a Senior Tory?
Everyone to the right of Mao is a Tory though, eh, comrade?
Whether you like Trump or not, why not look at the bigger picture. For years since 2016 the u.s. administrative state have been trying to take down Trump, e.g. the 'Russian collusion' play by hrc. Why not ask yourself what are they so afraid of. Trump is a political outsider so in what circumstances could you imagine that Trump is a threat to the status quo such that his enemies behave so irrationally ? (hint: their corruption)
I had a look at where Labour is sending activists from its “how to help” webpage. I found 256 constituencies where activists are being directed - seats Labour thinks are in play. They include all but one seat in Scotland so from here I am referring to England and Wales only.
On the whole, the seats chosen are very bullish. They include 174 Conservative seats from 2019 (notional). That is every Conservative seat with a majority under 28% and over half of seats with a majority up to 32%...
But there are some seats suggesting serious weakness. Here are those with the largest notional Labour majorities:
1. Birmingham Ladywood (73%) 2. Bethnal Green & Stepney (63%) 3. Bradford West (61%) 4. Birmingham Perry Barr (48%) 5. Leicester South (46%) 6. Blackburn (3%)
Well, yes and I think we know why.
In my neck of the woods, West Ham & Beckton may be a lot closer and it's clear the Newham Independents are going to be working the seat and especially the strongly Muslim Wards. East Ham is a more strongly Hindu area so much less concern. Stratford & Bow is another fascinating contest - two local by elections, Muslim areas and a growing Green presence.
One Uma Kumaran is the Labour candidate. Stratford is a strong Green area while the Workers Party will be targeting the Muslim vote at the Bow end and we have the by elections in Maryland and Forest Gate North to add a bit of interest.
Forgive me, I'm out of the loop. The most notable sentence in Johnson's piece looks to me to be;
"On the most important geo-strategic issue of our time, the freedom of Ukraine, he has the energy and coherence to ensure we get the right answer: the defeat of Putin, and a clear message to the world, especially China, that aggression does not pay."
Last I heard, Both Trump and the GOP were pretty uncomplicatedly aping Mearsheimer vis-a-vis Ukraine.
Is this projection from Boris, or has Trump turned?
There have been suggestions that he may have started to realise the gravity of the situation in Ukraine. However, this is Trump and so would not like to rely on that.
Trump only does something if it has a benefit for Trump, so we discount any explanation that involves him giving a shit about the situation in Ukraine.
It might be that someone he is willing to listen to has convinced him that Biden is vulnerable to the charge of failing Ukraine and not supporting Ukraine strongly enough to achieve victory.
But we also shouldn't confuse stuff that Trump says with what he ends up doing.
With regard to tactical voting, I've been looking at the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. The Britain Elects model predicts LD 35.1% + 8.5 Con 32.6% - 21.3 Lab 18.8% + 1.9 Ref 8.1% + 7.8 Grn 5.5% + 3.1 +/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency) So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.
But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see LAB 31.3% CON 27.9% LD 24.3% Ref 11.0% Grn 4.6% In which case they will vote Lab.
Two questions for the PB brains trust: 1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different? 2. Which is more likely to be right?
I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.
A Tory candidate for Putney came round for a chat.
I asked him why his flyer was green and if this was a bit misleading. He said it wasn't.
He said would I be voting Conservative. I said, is Rishi Sunak still your leader. He said he was.
I said therefore, no I won't be. He left.
Many, many years ago I entered into a doorstep conversation with a candidate from the Natural Law party (They were top end nutters). I found it hard to get rid of them. Somehow it was coffee and biscuits.
I did though get a copy of one of the most wonderful (in a bad way) documents that's ever been published - their manifesto.
With regard to tactical voting, I've been looking at the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. The Britain Elects model predicts LD 35.1% + 8.5 Con 32.6% - 21.3 Lab 18.8% + 1.9 Ref 8.1% + 7.8 Grn 5.5% + 3.1 +/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency) So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.
But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see LAB 31.3% CON 27.9% LD 24.3% Ref 11.0% Grn 4.6% In which case they will vote Lab.
Two questions for the PB brains trust: 1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different? 2. Which is more likely to be right?
I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.
Tactical Voting says LDs are the choice for non-Tories in Bicester:
Prince Andrew, the King and the ‘siege of Royal Lodge’
The King has told Prince Andrew that after the Epstein controversy there are to be no more royal duties and no more living at his vast house in Windsor Great Park. But in an increasingly bitter stand-off, his brother refuses to budge
As Windsor Great Park is state owned and he is no longer doing royal duties that would justify him living in state funded accomodation like Royal Lodge.
Conflating the RF with the State, I see.
The head of it is literally Head of State
Doesn't mean all those are his private property. Or the King's to dispose of.
As a Freeholder I do sometimes worry about the small print.
Not really a politics post, but I'm going to use my quota.
You don't really go to the Yorkshire Dales much when you grow up in Greater Manchester. They're not far away, but the Lake District is easier to get to - and what can compete with that? - and the Peak District is closer still. So I've managed to go 49 years before today finally getting around to seeing Malham Cove. (I took the daughters as a half-term activity to get them off screens, but really it was for me.) There's a long circular walk you can do. Along the stream and through the wood to Janet's Foss (named after the fairy who dwells behind the waterfall - apparently Janet is a not uncommon name for fairies in the North); up the frankly astonishing Gordale Scar (which was unascendable - the path that climbs up beside the waterfall also being a waterfall); back and up onto the plateau, and among big skies and rockscapes and distant misty views to Malham Tarn, then back to the limestone pavement above Malham Cove and down to the Cove itself. It's hard to say exactly why a cliff should be astonishing, but it's astonishing. It's like a cathedral. I couldn't stop looking at it. I could have looked at it all day. It glows. One of the wonders of the North. Definite noom.
Happy to report this was all achieved without disproportionate whingeing.
With regard to tactical voting, I've been looking at the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. The Britain Elects model predicts LD 35.1% + 8.5 Con 32.6% - 21.3 Lab 18.8% + 1.9 Ref 8.1% + 7.8 Grn 5.5% + 3.1 +/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency) So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.
But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see LAB 31.3% CON 27.9% LD 24.3% Ref 11.0% Grn 4.6% In which case they will vote Lab.
Two questions for the PB brains trust: 1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different? 2. Which is more likely to be right?
I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.
Tactical Voting says LDs are the choice for non-Tories in Bicester:
The difficulty, as in other seats like Didcot and Wantage, is in allowing for the large national increase in Lab vote and standstill or slight decline in LD vote since 2019. Electoral Calculus assumes that these changes are largely repeated locally, whereas Britain Elects and Tactical Voting assume that Labour voters wll resignedly vote LD tactically. My impression is that tactical voting is more limited this time and voters will largely indicate their natural preference. which will limit LD gains and in some cases, like Bicester, produce Labour gains from third place. We're certainly campaigning in Didcot and Wantage on the assuimption that the seat is winnable for Labour, and think it's quite unlikelyto be winnable by the LibDems.
Not really a politics post, but I'm going to use my quota.
You don't really go to the Yorkshire Dales much when you grow up in Greater Manchester. They're not far away, but the Lake District is easier to get to - and what can compete with that? - and the Peak District is closer still. So I've managed to go 49 years before today finally getting around to seeing Malham Cove. (I took the daughters as a half-term activity to get them off screens, but really it was for me.) There's a long circular walk you can do. Along the stream and through the wood to Janet's Foss (named after the fairy who dwells behind the waterfall - apparently Janet is a not uncommon name for fairies in the North); up the frankly astonishing Gordale Scar (which was unascendable - the path that climbs up beside the waterfall also being a waterfall); back and up onto the plateau, and among big skies and rockscapes and distant misty views to Malham Tarn, then back to the limestone pavement above Malham Cove and down to the Cove itself. It's hard to say exactly why a cliff should be astonishing, but it's astonishing. It's like a cathedral. I couldn't stop looking at it. I could have looked at it all day. It glows. One of the wonders of the North. Definite noom.
Happy to report this was all achieved without disproportionate whingeing.
Ooh, I know, to bring in a politics angle, I saw a Vote Labour flag in Malham(!), a Lib Dem flag and a Palestinian flag in Airton, and an utterly baffling protest on Junction 27 of the M60 in Stockport where for complicated reasons I went through on my way home - it appeared to encompass anti-vaxxery ("tell us your stories about how the vaccine has harmed YOU!" - rather suggests they're scrabbling around a bit for the bones of their conspiracy theory), opposition to Net Zero, and "Peace not Bombs" - though it wasn't clear in what context this was.
Why did he use a private jet to launch his Green Energy Policy in Scotland?
I get he is not safe on Public transport but surely he could have cycled there
Probably because he wanted to activate his critics to highlight his energy policy. Just like this week his critics have helpfully highlighted his distance from left wingers.
Borussia Dortmund have signed a three-year sponsorship agreement with weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall.
It's all quite difficult to follow, but ISTR Rheinmetall are supplying Putin, yes? So Lineker manages to be on the right side of this argument, though doesn't really make clear why. I think.
With regard to tactical voting, I've been looking at the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. The Britain Elects model predicts LD 35.1% + 8.5 Con 32.6% - 21.3 Lab 18.8% + 1.9 Ref 8.1% + 7.8 Grn 5.5% + 3.1 +/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency) So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.
But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see LAB 31.3% CON 27.9% LD 24.3% Ref 11.0% Grn 4.6% In which case they will vote Lab.
Two questions for the PB brains trust: 1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different? 2. Which is more likely to be right?
I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.
Tactical Voting says LDs are the choice for non-Tories in Bicester:
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 1h some substantial labour candidates this time but @torstenbell is going to be a properly interesting MP - @resolutionfoundation research has consistently moved the needle in recent years & he knows how Whitewall works
Not really a politics post, but I'm going to use my quota.
You don't really go to the Yorkshire Dales much when you grow up in Greater Manchester. They're not far away, but the Lake District is easier to get to - and what can compete with that? - and the Peak District is closer still. So I've managed to go 49 years before today finally getting around to seeing Malham Cove. (I took the daughters as a half-term activity to get them off screens, but really it was for me.) There's a long circular walk you can do. Along the stream and through the wood to Janet's Foss (named after the fairy who dwells behind the waterfall - apparently Janet is a not uncommon name for fairies in the North); up the frankly astonishing Gordale Scar (which was unascendable - the path that climbs up beside the waterfall also being a waterfall); back and up onto the plateau, and among big skies and rockscapes and distant misty views to Malham Tarn, then back to the limestone pavement above Malham Cove and down to the Cove itself. It's hard to say exactly why a cliff should be astonishing, but it's astonishing. It's like a cathedral. I couldn't stop looking at it. I could have looked at it all day. It glows. One of the wonders of the North. Definite noom.
Happy to report this was all achieved without disproportionate whingeing.
That does look quite noomy! Britain is lucky with noom
I’ve felt a bit of noom here in Moldova but TBH not much. I expected more - not sure why
It's nearly daily now with senior Tories genuflecting before Trump. This is why they need to lose and lose badly. We really don't want that shit here.
David Lammy spent 2 days last week doing the same
Presumably he is a Senior Tory?
Everyone to the right of Mao is a Tory though, eh, comrade?
Whether you like Trump or not, why not look at the bigger picture. For years since 2016 the u.s. administrative state have been trying to take down Trump, e.g. the 'Russian collusion' play by hrc. Why not ask yourself what are they so afraid of. Trump is a political outsider so in what circumstances could you imagine that Trump is a threat to the status quo such that his enemies behave so irrationally ? (hint: their corruption)
"Why not ask yourself what they're so afraid of?"
I agree. Once you set aside the lies, the chaos, the sexual assault, the anti-science agenda, the control over women's bodies, the fraud, the disastrous Covid response, the destabilising of geopolitical allies, the pandering to dictators, the backchannelling, nepotism, the Nazi boosting, and fact that he literally tried to have a mob lynch his own vice president, they've got NOTHING.
It's nearly daily now with senior Tories genuflecting before Trump. This is why they need to lose and lose badly. We really don't want that shit here.
David Lammy spent 2 days last week doing the same
Presumably he is a Senior Tory?
Everyone to the right of Mao is a Tory though, eh, comrade?
Whether you like Trump or not, why not look at the bigger picture. For years since 2016 the u.s. administrative state have been trying to take down Trump, e.g. the 'Russian collusion' play by hrc. Why not ask yourself what are they so afraid of. Trump is a political outsider so in what circumstances could you imagine that Trump is a threat to the status quo such that his enemies behave so irrationally ? (hint: their corruption)
"Why not ask yourself what they're so afraid of?"
I agree. Once you set aside the lies, the chaos, the sexual assault, the anti-science agenda, the control over women's bodies, the fraud, the disastrous Covid response, the destabilising of geopolitical allies, the pandering to dictators, the backchannelling, nepotism, the Nazi boosting, and fact that he literally tried to have a mob lynch his own vice president, they've got NOTHING.
Borussia Dortmund have signed a three-year sponsorship agreement with weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall.
It's all quite difficult to follow, but ISTR Rheinmetall are supplying Putin, yes? So Lineker manages to be on the right side of this argument, though doesn't really make clear why. I think.
Rheinmetall guns equipped Messerschmitts and Stukas during ze War.
Borussia Dortmund have signed a three-year sponsorship agreement with weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall.
It's all quite difficult to follow, but ISTR Rheinmetall are supplying Putin, yes? So Lineker manages to be on the right side of this argument, though doesn't really make clear why. I think.
It must be to do with Israel. They're a German firm so can't be supplying kit to the Russians.
It's nearly daily now with senior Tories genuflecting before Trump. This is why they need to lose and lose badly. We really don't want that shit here.
David Lammy spent 2 days last week doing the same
Presumably he is a Senior Tory?
Everyone to the right of Mao is a Tory though, eh, comrade?
Whether you like Trump or not, why not look at the bigger picture. For years since 2016 the u.s. administrative state have been trying to take down Trump, e.g. the 'Russian collusion' play by hrc. Why not ask yourself what are they so afraid of. Trump is a political outsider so in what circumstances could you imagine that Trump is a threat to the status quo such that his enemies behave so irrationally ? (hint: their corruption)
"Why not ask yourself what they're so afraid of?"
I agree. Once you set aside the lies, the chaos, the sexual assault, the anti-science agenda, the control over women's bodies, the fraud, the disastrous Covid response, the destabilising of geopolitical allies, the pandering to dictators, the backchannelling, nepotism, the Nazi boosting, and fact that he literally tried to have a mob lynch his own vice president, they've got NOTHING.
Borussia Dortmund have signed a three-year sponsorship agreement with weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall.
It's all quite difficult to follow, but ISTR Rheinmetall are supplying Putin, yes? So Lineker manages to be on the right side of this argument, though doesn't really make clear why. I think.
From what I can tell, they are arming Ukraine. However, you can guess who they are also supplying.
It's nearly daily now with senior Tories genuflecting before Trump. This is why they need to lose and lose badly. We really don't want that shit here.
David Lammy spent 2 days last week doing the same
Presumably he is a Senior Tory?
Everyone to the right of Mao is a Tory though, eh, comrade?
Whether you like Trump or not, why not look at the bigger picture. For years since 2016 the u.s. administrative state have been trying to take down Trump, e.g. the 'Russian collusion' play by hrc. Why not ask yourself what are they so afraid of. Trump is a political outsider so in what circumstances could you imagine that Trump is a threat to the status quo such that his enemies behave so irrationally ? (hint: their corruption)
"Why not ask yourself what they're so afraid of?"
I agree. Once you set aside the lies, the chaos, the sexual assault, the anti-science agenda, the control over women's bodies, the fraud, the disastrous Covid response, the destabilising of geopolitical allies, the pandering to dictators, the backchannelling, nepotism, the Nazi boosting, and fact that he literally tried to have a mob lynch his own vice president, they've got NOTHING.
wow, you must really love your msm
Hello.
A plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border. Which side do you bury the survivors?
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 1h some substantial labour candidates this time but @torstenbell is going to be a properly interesting MP - @resolutionfoundation research has consistently moved the needle in recent years & he knows how Whitewall works
With regard to tactical voting, I've been looking at the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. The Britain Elects model predicts LD 35.1% + 8.5 Con 32.6% - 21.3 Lab 18.8% + 1.9 Ref 8.1% + 7.8 Grn 5.5% + 3.1 +/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency) So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.
But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see LAB 31.3% CON 27.9% LD 24.3% Ref 11.0% Grn 4.6% In which case they will vote Lab.
Two questions for the PB brains trust: 1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different? 2. Which is more likely to be right?
I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.
Tactical Voting says LDs are the choice for non-Tories in Bicester:
The difficulty, as in other seats like Didcot and Wantage, is in allowing for the large national increase in Lab vote and standstill or slight decline in LD vote since 2019. Electoral Calculus assumes that these changes are largely repeated locally, whereas Britain Elects and Tactical Voting assume that Labour voters wll resignedly vote LD tactically. My impression is that tactical voting is more limited this time and voters will largely indicate their natural preference. which will limit LD gains and in some cases, like Bicester, produce Labour gains from third place. We're certainly campaigning in Didcot and Wantage on the assuimption that the seat is winnable for Labour, and think it's quite unlikelyto be winnable by the LibDems.
Agree. In the eventuality of a big Labour victory, the Lib Dems are only likely to be competitive in Tory (and SNP) seats where they are the obvious challenger and Labour are a very long way behind.
It's nearly daily now with senior Tories genuflecting before Trump. This is why they need to lose and lose badly. We really don't want that shit here.
David Lammy spent 2 days last week doing the same
Presumably he is a Senior Tory?
Everyone to the right of Mao is a Tory though, eh, comrade?
Whether you like Trump or not, why not look at the bigger picture. For years since 2016 the u.s. administrative state have been trying to take down Trump, e.g. the 'Russian collusion' play by hrc. Why not ask yourself what are they so afraid of. Trump is a political outsider so in what circumstances could you imagine that Trump is a threat to the status quo such that his enemies behave so irrationally ? (hint: their corruption)
"Why not ask yourself what they're so afraid of?"
I agree. Once you set aside the lies, the chaos, the sexual assault, the anti-science agenda, the control over women's bodies, the fraud, the disastrous Covid response, the destabilising of geopolitical allies, the pandering to dictators, the backchannelling, nepotism, the Nazi boosting, and fact that he literally tried to have a mob lynch his own vice president, they've got NOTHING.
wow, you must really love your msm
Hello.
A plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border. Which side do you bury the survivors?
Borussia Dortmund have signed a three-year sponsorship agreement with weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall.
It's all quite difficult to follow, but ISTR Rheinmetall are supplying Putin, yes? So Lineker manages to be on the right side of this argument, though doesn't really make clear why. I think.
It must be to do with Israel. They're a German firm so can't be supplying kit to the Russians.
They are supplying masses of arms to Ukraine and have signed an agreement to open a factory in Ukraine, but they're also sending tank ammunition to Israel.
"Germany's largest weapons manufacturer, which is providing Israel with 10,000 rounds of 120mm precision tank ammunition. Israel made the request in November, and Germany reportedly considered speeding up delivery of the ammunition by providing it from its own military's existing stockpiles while ordering more from Rheinmetall."
Borussia Dortmund have signed a three-year sponsorship agreement with weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall.
It's all quite difficult to follow, but ISTR Rheinmetall are supplying Putin, yes? So Lineker manages to be on the right side of this argument, though doesn't really make clear why. I think.
Rheinmetall guns equipped Messerschmitts and Stukas during ze War.
Germany rearmed Fokkers captured when they overran Belgium and the Netherlands with Rheinmetall guns.
So it *could* have been true that those chaps *were* in Fokkers…
Borussia Dortmund have signed a three-year sponsorship agreement with weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall.
It's all quite difficult to follow, but ISTR Rheinmetall are supplying Putin, yes? So Lineker manages to be on the right side of this argument, though doesn't really make clear why. I think.
It must be to do with Israel. They're a German firm so can't be supplying kit to the Russians.
They are supplying masses of arms to Ukraine and have signed an agreement to open a factory in Ukraine, but they're also sending tank ammunition to Israel.
"Germany's largest weapons manufacturer, which is providing Israel with 10,000 rounds of 120mm precision tank ammunition. Israel made the request in November, and Germany reportedly considered speeding up delivery of the ammunition by providing it from its own military's existing stockpiles while ordering more from Rheinmetall."
I had a look at where Labour is sending activists from its “how to help” webpage. I found 256 constituencies where activists are being directed - seats Labour thinks are in play. They include all but one seat in Scotland so from here I am referring to England and Wales only.
On the whole, the seats chosen are very bullish. They include 174 Conservative seats from 2019 (notional). That is every Conservative seat with a majority under 28% and over half of seats with a majority up to 32%...
But there are some seats suggesting serious weakness. Here are those with the largest notional Labour majorities:
1. Birmingham Ladywood (73%) 2. Bethnal Green & Stepney (63%) 3. Bradford West (61%) 4. Birmingham Perry Barr (48%) 5. Leicester South (46%) 6. Blackburn (3%)
174 gains from the Tories offset by 6 losses to Hamas and their fellow travellers. I'll take that.
With regard to tactical voting, I've been looking at the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. The Britain Elects model predicts LD 35.1% + 8.5 Con 32.6% - 21.3 Lab 18.8% + 1.9 Ref 8.1% + 7.8 Grn 5.5% + 3.1 +/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency) So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.
But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see LAB 31.3% CON 27.9% LD 24.3% Ref 11.0% Grn 4.6% In which case they will vote Lab.
Two questions for the PB brains trust: 1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different? 2. Which is more likely to be right?
I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.
Tactical Voting says LDs are the choice for non-Tories in Bicester:
The difficulty, as in other seats like Didcot and Wantage, is in allowing for the large national increase in Lab vote and standstill or slight decline in LD vote since 2019. Electoral Calculus assumes that these changes are largely repeated locally, whereas Britain Elects and Tactical Voting assume that Labour voters wll resignedly vote LD tactically. My impression is that tactical voting is more limited this time and voters will largely indicate their natural preference. which will limit LD gains and in some cases, like Bicester, produce Labour gains from third place. We're certainly campaigning in Didcot and Wantage on the assuimption that the seat is winnable for Labour, and think it's quite unlikelyto be winnable by the LibDems.
Just to provide the verdict of a third model, the Economist reckons Bicester and Woodstock will be Con 32 Lab 30 LD 19 Ref 8 Green 7 ie that the lack of tactical voting (or confused tactical voting) will enable Con to hold the seat. That seems to me to be the most likely outcome, if both Lab and LD mount a determined campaign. I can't see any way that tactical voters can know which way to vote, given three models which predict three different winners.
With regard to tactical voting, I've been looking at the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. The Britain Elects model predicts LD 35.1% + 8.5 Con 32.6% - 21.3 Lab 18.8% + 1.9 Ref 8.1% + 7.8 Grn 5.5% + 3.1 +/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency) So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.
But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see LAB 31.3% CON 27.9% LD 24.3% Ref 11.0% Grn 4.6% In which case they will vote Lab.
Two questions for the PB brains trust: 1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different? 2. Which is more likely to be right?
I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.
The notional 2019 result for Bicester and Woodstock is 53.4% Con, 26.5% LD, 17.1% Lab.
I think it's worth looking at UNS in national opinion polls as a starting point. At the moment LDs are down nearly 3% on 2019, Lab are up about 12.5%, Con are down 25%. UNS would just about put Labour ahead of the Conservatives with the LDs in a clear 3rd.
The Britain Elects "model" for Bicester looks really strange to me, with the LDs really bucking the national trend of a declining national vote share, and the Lab vote barely up despite taking off nationally.
OK, UNS isn't everything. So let's look at the R&W Blue Wall polling, it's instructive because it's made up of an amalgam of seats in the South where the aggregated vote share from 2019 has the LDs in 2nd place i.e. 2019 was Con 50%, LD 27%, Lab 20%. Not that dissimilar to Bicester in 2019 in fact. But what's striking about the Blue Wall polling is that R&W have the change in main parties share much the same as the national share. If anything, Labour are doing slightly better. The latest change on 2019 in the R&W Blue Wall seats is Con -24.7%, LD -4.4%, Lab +13.4%. That is even better for Labour's chances than just applying UNS, with those % changes and you get a result very close to that predicted by Electoral Calculus in Bicester.
So you're right, tactical voting isn't absolutly clear cut, but looking at all that I would give Labour a better chance than the LDs on current national polling.
I had a look at where Labour is sending activists from its “how to help” webpage. I found 256 constituencies where activists are being directed - seats Labour thinks are in play. They include all but one seat in Scotland so from here I am referring to England and Wales only.
On the whole, the seats chosen are very bullish. They include 174 Conservative seats from 2019 (notional). That is every Conservative seat with a majority under 28% and over half of seats with a majority up to 32%...
But there are some seats suggesting serious weakness. Here are those with the largest notional Labour majorities:
1. Birmingham Ladywood (73%) 2. Bethnal Green & Stepney (63%) 3. Bradford West (61%) 4. Birmingham Perry Barr (48%) 5. Leicester South (46%) 6. Blackburn (3%)
174 gains from the Tories offset by 6 losses to Hamas and their fellow travellers. I'll take that.
Two ways of looking at it. On the one hand, it could do Labour some good to detach itself from the Muslim vote. A big win elsewhere and who cares about a few seats?
The problem is if Labour don't win by all that much and at the subsequent election they look like they might rely on a deal with MPs of such seats.
Not really a politics post, but I'm going to use my quota.
You don't really go to the Yorkshire Dales much when you grow up in Greater Manchester. They're not far away, but the Lake District is easier to get to - and what can compete with that? - and the Peak District is closer still. So I've managed to go 49 years before today finally getting around to seeing Malham Cove. (I took the daughters as a half-term activity to get them off screens, but really it was for me.) There's a long circular walk you can do. Along the stream and through the wood to Janet's Foss (named after the fairy who dwells behind the waterfall - apparently Janet is a not uncommon name for fairies in the North); up the frankly astonishing Gordale Scar (which was unascendable - the path that climbs up beside the waterfall also being a waterfall); back and up onto the plateau, and among big skies and rockscapes and distant misty views to Malham Tarn, then back to the limestone pavement above Malham Cove and down to the Cove itself. It's hard to say exactly why a cliff should be astonishing, but it's astonishing. It's like a cathedral. I couldn't stop looking at it. I could have looked at it all day. It glows. One of the wonders of the North. Definite noom.
Happy to report this was all achieved without disproportionate whingeing.
That does look quite noomy! Britain is lucky with noom
I’ve felt a bit of noom here in Moldova but TBH not much. I expected more - not sure why
I’m hoping for Good Noom in Transnistria tomorrow
I think my son's just had his first NOOM moment. He was drawing a mosaic at Bignor Roman Villa, concentrating intently on his work. It was quiet, and no-one entered the room. Eventually he looked up at me and said: "Dad, I feel something in here, something bigger."
"Spiritual?" I asked.
He thought about it a little. "No, but bigger. History."
He then explained that he felt almost as though he was partly back in that time, as if he was breathing in Roman dust.
Not really a politics post, but I'm going to use my quota.
You don't really go to the Yorkshire Dales much when you grow up in Greater Manchester. They're not far away, but the Lake District is easier to get to - and what can compete with that? - and the Peak District is closer still. So I've managed to go 49 years before today finally getting around to seeing Malham Cove. (I took the daughters as a half-term activity to get them off screens, but really it was for me.) There's a long circular walk you can do. Along the stream and through the wood to Janet's Foss (named after the fairy who dwells behind the waterfall - apparently Janet is a not uncommon name for fairies in the North); up the frankly astonishing Gordale Scar (which was unascendable - the path that climbs up beside the waterfall also being a waterfall); back and up onto the plateau, and among big skies and rockscapes and distant misty views to Malham Tarn, then back to the limestone pavement above Malham Cove and down to the Cove itself. It's hard to say exactly why a cliff should be astonishing, but it's astonishing. It's like a cathedral. I couldn't stop looking at it. I could have looked at it all day. It glows. One of the wonders of the North. Definite noom.
Happy to report this was all achieved without disproportionate whingeing.
That does look quite noomy! Britain is lucky with noom
I’ve felt a bit of noom here in Moldova but TBH not much. I expected more - not sure why
I’m hoping for Good Noom in Transnistria tomorrow
I think my son's just had his first NOOM moment. He was drawing a mosaic at Bignor Roman Villa, concentrating intently on his work. It was quiet, and no-one entered the room. Eventually he looked up at me and said: "Dad, I feel something in here, something bigger."
"Spiritual?" I asked.
He thought about it a little. "No, but bigger. History."
He then explained that he felt almost as though he was partly back in that time, as if he was breathing in Roman dust.
WHY anyone with any other top job prospects would WANT to be in the USA federal cabinet is beyond me.
The only really significant jobs are Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense. The rest are glorified office boys & girls.
As many have discovered & rued, for example Pete Buttigieg whose political prospects have NOT been enhanced IMHO by being US Transportation Secretary. Even less so for the rest of the politicos in the Biden cabinet.
Which is NOT unique in this regard - just ask Rick Perry!
It's nearly daily now with senior Tories genuflecting before Trump. This is why they need to lose and lose badly. We really don't want that shit here.
I think this is what Casino Royale calls "social proof". It's a badge of honour among a large portion of the British Right to support Trump as proof that they are an independent free-thinker, not shackled to the left-wing consensus that is hobbling Britain.
But it's actually a sign of brain rot due to spending too much time in the social media echo chamber.
nah it's just a sign that they are all a bunch of *****
Just received a begogram from CCHQ demanding more money by 10pm tonight, because funding has dried up the last few days, or they'll have to pull the campaign in some seats.
I can't say it's made me want to hit the 'DONATE' button.
Would it be unkind to suggest that, given they are lacking 200 or so candidates, they can afford to pull the campaign in some seats?
Finding a paper candidate for an unwinnable seat like East Ham shouldn't be difficult. It's finding those where they might still have a chance which is difficult.
I suspect the Conservatives are actively fighting 150-200 seats at most given paucity of human resources, not money. Labour are probably fighting 200-250 seats hard but both seats will move activists to other seats if needed.
Noone is going to want to waste any time fighting a seat like East Ham.
Interesting to ponder what the Tories will do in my seat North Dorset. One of they're top 20 safe seats but Labour seem not to be bothering and the LDs will go hard. I think the Tories will have to put some effort in here.
My cousin there is no fan of the Tories, but neither is he keen on a 20% hike in his daughters school fees. A very bright girl who lost her mother last year to cancer, so he is keen not to move schools.
Fortunately he can vote LD, as I think he wouldn't want to vote Lab.
WHY anyone with any other top job prospects would WANT to be in the USA federal cabinet is beyond me.
The only really significant jobs are Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense. The rest are glorified office boys & girls.
As many have discovered & rued, for example Pete Buttigieg whose political prospects have NOT been enhanced IMHO by being US Transportation Secretary. Even less so for the rest of the politicos in the Biden cabinet.
Which is NOT unique in this regard - just ask Rick Perry!
I would say AG is a decent job, although indeed more a capstone in one's career than a stepping stone.
Borussia Dortmund have signed a three-year sponsorship agreement with weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall.
It's all quite difficult to follow, but ISTR Rheinmetall are supplying Putin, yes? So Lineker manages to be on the right side of this argument, though doesn't really make clear why. I think.
Rheinmetall guns equipped Messerschmitts and Stukas during ze War.
Almost certainly the most potently armed fighter of WWII, 4 x 30 mm MK 108 cannon. One shell from them would mess up your day.
Not really a politics post, but I'm going to use my quota.
You don't really go to the Yorkshire Dales much when you grow up in Greater Manchester. They're not far away, but the Lake District is easier to get to - and what can compete with that? - and the Peak District is closer still. So I've managed to go 49 years before today finally getting around to seeing Malham Cove. (I took the daughters as a half-term activity to get them off screens, but really it was for me.) There's a long circular walk you can do. Along the stream and through the wood to Janet's Foss (named after the fairy who dwells behind the waterfall - apparently Janet is a not uncommon name for fairies in the North); up the frankly astonishing Gordale Scar (which was unascendable - the path that climbs up beside the waterfall also being a waterfall); back and up onto the plateau, and among big skies and rockscapes and distant misty views to Malham Tarn, then back to the limestone pavement above Malham Cove and down to the Cove itself. It's hard to say exactly why a cliff should be astonishing, but it's astonishing. It's like a cathedral. I couldn't stop looking at it. I could have looked at it all day. It glows. One of the wonders of the North. Definite noom.
Happy to report this was all achieved without disproportionate whingeing.
That does look quite noomy! Britain is lucky with noom
I’ve felt a bit of noom here in Moldova but TBH not much. I expected more - not sure why
I’m hoping for Good Noom in Transnistria tomorrow
I think my son's just had his first NOOM moment. He was drawing a mosaic at Bignor Roman Villa, concentrating intently on his work. It was quiet, and no-one entered the room. Eventually he looked up at me and said: "Dad, I feel something in here, something bigger."
"Spiritual?" I asked.
He thought about it a little. "No, but bigger. History."
He then explained that he felt almost as though he was partly back in that time, as if he was breathing in Roman dust.
Perhaps in a previous existence he was a British Roman dustman?
According to the World Bank, Russia's economy has now overtaken Japan's in PPP terms, making it the fourth biggest economy behind China, the US and India.
More foreign countries with quite intense noom per sq km, and for very different reasons
Namibia Peru Greece Ethiopia
I was chatting with my Moldovan guide today - a brilliant well traveled lady (been to 50+ countries, very bright) and I told her the concept of noom and she grasped it immediately and we agreed there is one place on earth that might be entirely made out of noom:
Comments
For the next header, can we use his nemesis Michael Cohen's quote ?
""A cheat, a mobster, a liar, a fraud, a bully, a racist, a predator, and a con man"...
.. walked into a bar.
"Hi Donald" said the barman.
The Whitestone Insight data tables are worth a look - a higher proportion of DKs (16%) than other pollsters rising to 21% among female voters.
Techne has DKs running at 11%, WNVs at 22% - YouGov has WNVs at 11% and Whitestone has just 5% WNVs.
Something out of kilter here methinks - my immediate thought is Techne is closer to the mark with a turnout in the high 60s.
Nobody is suggesting the King can bulldoze Royal Lodge, just move out the current tenant (and ideally put the Prince and Princess of Wales in instead)
I suspect the Conservatives are actively fighting 150-200 seats at most given paucity of human resources, not money. Labour are probably fighting 200-250 seats hard but both seats will move activists to other seats if needed.
Noone is going to want to waste any time fighting a seat like East Ham.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13480329/BORIS-JOHNSON-liberal-hit-job-political-Trump-victory-likely.html
Rishi must be tearing his hair out.
Either the Local Authorities pays, Westminster pays, or the consumer
Kingstanding (Birmingham) Council By-Election Result:
🌳 CON: 47.9% (+4.7)
🌹 LAB: 39.3% (-6.1)
🔶 LDM: 4.7% (-0.0)
🌍 GRN: 4.2% (-0.0)
⚙️ WPB: 2.7% (New)
👨🔧 TUSC: 1.2% (-0.5)
No WM (-0.6) as previous.
Conservative HOLD.
Changes w/ 2022.
5.4% swing LAB to CON
We're still going to get our arses handed to us on a plate.
SKS confirms GB Energy isn’t an energy company but an investment arm for private sector & will not:
1) produce energy
2) sell energy
3) own any energy infrastructure
And no explanation as to how it reduces bills.
Green Party policy is to renationalise Energy
It wont unless I am missing something
The other thing we don't know is who would be in a Trump 2025-29 administration - I can't imagine many of those who served from 2017-21 wanting a second go so who would be, for example, the likely SoS?
But it's actually a sign of brain rot due to spending too much time in the social media echo chamber.
If Rishi and Hunt lead the Tories to landslide defeat, Boris can say 'told you so' and if a new Tory Opposition leader proves a dud come back to 'save' the Conservatives in Opposition and take advantage of any Starmer government unpopularity.
After all if Trump does manage to beat Biden in a rematch after Biden beat him in 2020, Boris will think why can't he have another go at Starmer too now Rishi flopped against him?
If Rishi wins and Biden is re elected however, that would kill off any talk of a Boris comeback and finish Trump too
Presumably he is a Senior Tory?
I had a look at where Labour is sending activists from its “how to help” webpage. I found 256 constituencies where activists are being directed - seats Labour thinks are in play. They include all but one seat in Scotland so from here I am referring to England and Wales only.
https://twitter.com/OwenWntr/status/1796497107366642057
On the whole, the seats chosen are very bullish. They include 174 Conservative seats from 2019 (notional). That is every Conservative seat with a majority under 28% and over half of seats with a majority up to 32%...
But there are some seats suggesting serious weakness. Here are those with the largest notional Labour majorities:
1. Birmingham Ladywood (73%)
2. Bethnal Green & Stepney (63%)
3. Bradford West (61%)
4. Birmingham Perry Barr (48%)
5. Leicester South (46%)
6. Blackburn (3%)
"On the most important geo-strategic issue of our time, the freedom of Ukraine, he has the energy and coherence to ensure we get the right answer: the defeat of Putin, and a clear message to the world, especially China, that aggression does not pay."
Last I heard, Both Trump and the GOP were pretty uncomplicatedly aping Mearsheimer vis-a-vis Ukraine.
Is this projection from Boris, or has Trump turned?
Whatever it is all bollocks anyway. Just playing on your emotions to get you to cough up. The LDs are currently using the we just need this to do this bit extra and we have a donor who will match your contributions if we can raise £100,000 by whenever.
It would be interesting to know how many of those six seats Galloway's mob are standing in.
I asked him why his flyer was green and if this was a bit misleading. He said it wasn't.
He said would I be voting Conservative. I said, is Rishi Sunak still your leader. He said he was.
I said therefore, no I won't be. He left.
In my neck of the woods, West Ham & Beckton may be a lot closer and it's clear the Newham Independents are going to be working the seat and especially the strongly Muslim Wards. East Ham is a more strongly Hindu area so much less concern. Stratford & Bow is another fascinating contest - two local by elections, Muslim areas and a growing Green presence.
One Uma Kumaran is the Labour candidate. Stratford is a strong Green area while the Workers Party will be targeting the Muslim vote at the Bow end and we have the by elections in Maryland and Forest Gate North to add a bit of interest.
It might be that someone he is willing to listen to has convinced him that Biden is vulnerable to the charge of failing Ukraine and not supporting Ukraine strongly enough to achieve victory.
But we also shouldn't confuse stuff that Trump says with what he ends up doing.
LD 35.1% + 8.5
Con 32.6% - 21.3
Lab 18.8% + 1.9
Ref 8.1% + 7.8
Grn 5.5% + 3.1
+/- with 2019 (must with notional voteshares since its a new constituency)
So any anti-Con tactical voters who look at that will vote LD.
But if they look at Electoral Calculus, they'll see
LAB 31.3%
CON 27.9%
LD 24.3%
Ref 11.0%
Grn 4.6%
In which case they will vote Lab.
Two questions for the PB brains trust:
1. Given that they are based on very similar national vote shares, how come these predictions are so different?
2. Which is more likely to be right?
I'm sure there must be a number of seats where tactical voting won't be clear-cut, and hence the effect of it on overall seat-counts may not be as great as might be expected.
There are plenty of people to the right of Mao that aren't Tories. Corbyn Abbott Rayner for example
SKS would prefer them all to not be Candidates to be replaced by Israel Lobbyist Tories.
Whats your definition Comrade wears a nice red rosette?
I found it hard to get rid of them. Somehow it was coffee and biscuits.
I did though get a copy of one of the most wonderful (in a bad way) documents that's ever been published - their manifesto.
https://tactical.vote/bicester-and-woodstock/
Why did he use a private jet to launch his Green Energy Policy in Scotland?
I get he is not safe on Public transport but surely he could have cycled there
Why did he use a private jet to launch his Green Energy Policy in Scotland?
I get he is not safe on Public transport but surely he could have cycled there
You don't really go to the Yorkshire Dales much when you grow up in Greater Manchester. They're not far away, but the Lake District is easier to get to - and what can compete with that? - and the Peak District is closer still. So I've managed to go 49 years before today finally getting around to seeing Malham Cove. (I took the daughters as a half-term activity to get them off screens, but really it was for me.)
There's a long circular walk you can do. Along the stream and through the wood to Janet's Foss (named after the fairy who dwells behind the waterfall - apparently Janet is a not uncommon name for fairies in the North); up the frankly astonishing Gordale Scar (which was unascendable - the path that climbs up beside the waterfall also being a waterfall); back and up onto the plateau, and among big skies and rockscapes and distant misty views to Malham Tarn, then back to the limestone pavement above Malham Cove and down to the Cove itself. It's hard to say exactly why a cliff should be astonishing, but it's astonishing. It's like a cathedral. I couldn't stop looking at it. I could have looked at it all day. It glows. One of the wonders of the North. Definite noom.
Happy to report this was all achieved without disproportionate whingeing.
On another matter, Borussia Dortmund have lost the floating voter:
https://x.com/GaryLineker/status/1796558643313438954
@GaryLineker
First time I’ll be cheering for @realmadriden in a Champions League final. 🙄
Borussia Dortmund have signed a three-year sponsorship agreement with weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall.
Modern politics I’m afraid.
gabyhinsliff
@gabyhinsliff
·
1h
some substantial labour candidates this time but @torstenbell
is going to be a properly interesting MP - @resolutionfoundation research has consistently moved the needle in recent years & he knows how Whitewall works
https://x.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1796584375838204105
I’ve felt a bit of noom here in Moldova but TBH not much. I expected more - not sure why
I’m hoping for Good Noom in Transnistria tomorrow
Your shift doesn't start until tomorrow morning.
A plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border. Which side do you bury the survivors?
https://afsc.org/gaza-genocide-companies
"Germany's largest weapons manufacturer, which is providing Israel with 10,000 rounds of 120mm precision tank ammunition. Israel made the request in November, and Germany reportedly considered speeding up delivery of the ammunition by providing it from its own military's existing stockpiles while ordering more from Rheinmetall."
So it *could* have been true that those chaps *were* in Fokkers…
"Joe Biden is so infirm. Just think what David Attenborough looked like at his age."
"David Attenborough is now 98 and he still looks in better nick than Biden."
Con 32
Lab 30
LD 19
Ref 8
Green 7
ie that the lack of tactical voting (or confused tactical voting) will enable Con to hold the seat.
That seems to me to be the most likely outcome, if both Lab and LD mount a determined campaign. I can't see any way that tactical voters can know which way to vote, given three models which predict three different winners.
@Ed_Miliband
Great British HENergy 🐔 🇬🇧
https://x.com/Ed_Miliband/status/1796593577914675504
I think it's worth looking at UNS in national opinion polls as a starting point. At the moment LDs are down nearly 3% on 2019, Lab are up about 12.5%, Con are down 25%. UNS would just about put Labour ahead of the Conservatives with the LDs in a clear 3rd.
The Britain Elects "model" for Bicester looks really strange to me, with the LDs really bucking the national trend of a declining national vote share, and the Lab vote barely up despite taking off nationally.
OK, UNS isn't everything. So let's look at the R&W Blue Wall polling, it's instructive because it's made up of an amalgam of seats in the South where the aggregated vote share from 2019 has the LDs in 2nd place i.e. 2019 was Con 50%, LD 27%, Lab 20%. Not that dissimilar to Bicester in 2019 in fact. But what's striking about the Blue Wall polling is that R&W have the change in main parties share much the same as the national share. If anything, Labour are doing slightly better. The latest change on 2019 in the R&W Blue Wall seats is Con -24.7%, LD -4.4%, Lab +13.4%. That is even better for Labour's chances than just applying UNS, with those % changes and you get a result very close to that predicted by Electoral Calculus in Bicester.
So you're right, tactical voting isn't absolutly clear cut, but looking at all that I would give Labour a better chance than the LDs on current national polling.
The problem is if Labour don't win by all that much and at the subsequent election they look like they might rely on a deal with MPs of such seats.
"Spiritual?" I asked.
He thought about it a little. "No, but bigger. History."
He then explained that he felt almost as though he was partly back in that time, as if he was breathing in Roman dust.
Starmer has a problem looming imho. Maybe it is one of life's nice problems to have...
Antonia Bance
@antoniabance
·
19h
It’s the honour of my life to be selected as Labour’s candidate for Tipton and Wednesbury.
https://x.com/antoniabance
The only really significant jobs are Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense. The rest are glorified office boys & girls.
As many have discovered & rued, for example Pete Buttigieg whose political prospects have NOT been enhanced IMHO by being US Transportation Secretary. Even less so for the rest of the politicos in the Biden cabinet.
Which is NOT unique in this regard - just ask Rick Perry!
Fortunately he can vote LD, as I think he wouldn't want to vote Lab.
Namibia
Peru
Greece
Ethiopia
I was chatting with my Moldovan guide today - a brilliant well traveled lady (been to 50+ countries, very bright) and I told her the concept of noom and she grasped it immediately and we agreed there is one place on earth that might be entirely made out of noom:
Easter Island