politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » From YouGov: How would Jesus view immigration, gay marriage

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

The EU remains rubbish, I see.

and the Pope Catholic.

All is normal with the world!

CD13 said:

ThomasNashe,

John the Evangelist supposedly wrote the fourth gospel, probably written last and towards the end of the first century.

John the Baptist had been beheaded many years earlier - think Salome and the dancing. He was also a strict hermit and lived on honey and insects. Not one for socialising with anyone.

Were these not locust beans rather than Locusta migratoria?

TGOHF said:

RobD said:

Sorry, they've just identified a third of a trillion euro black hole in the EU budget.


What?!?

They haven't spent it yet ...

"In a special report earlier this week, EU auditors identified the sum in outstanding bills for legally binding spending commitments made by the European Commission over the last four years.
“Assuming that commitments will not be de-committed, and we don’t see how most of them could, it might be problematic to get this money from member states to finance the expenditure foreseen,” Igor Ludborzs, an EU auditor, told the Euractiv website."

Have the EC folk been borrowing money from Wonga?

MarqueeMark said:

The Good Lady Wifi

I hope that's autocorrect...

Jesus was the world's first socialist!

Dr. Prasannan, as has already been noted, he told his followers to pay their bloody taxes (I paraphrase).

Scott_P said:

MarqueeMark said:

The Good Lady Wifi

I hope that's autocorrect...

No, that's correct....she's everywhere......

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

state_go_away said:

Lets face it if Jesus was alive today NOBODY would give a toss about his views because he would be classed as a fantasist. What do you do when someone talks to you ,in all seriousness' about being the son of God and that he once fed 5 thousand people with a fish and that he has 12 best mates (all male!!) !
err you politely nod and then look to escape

Someone who can spread one fish over 5,000 meals would work well in a fast food recipe dept - or even found a new franchise and become a multi billionaire.

Filet O Bishop?

No that's the meat menu.

richardDodd said:

Fillet of God

you want fries with that?

Janan Ganesh: Nothing says government-in-waiting like a hashtag campaign twinned with conspiracy theories about its lack of media coverage.

isam said:

TGOHF said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@LadPolitics

Reckless likely to lose Rochester next May, say bookies. http://ow.ly/EViA5

The bookies are all Tories?

"According to our individual constituency prices, that means Rochester & Strood is now the eighth most likely win for UKIP at the general election. The UKIP win % is the chance of them taking the seat at the general election, as implied by our odds"

Something amiss if 8th most likely seats is odds against and SPIN has Kipper seats at 10.5

Potential Arb ?

Not really as UKIP could conceivably be odds against in every seat and Kipper seats be a buy at 100.5

That link also shows only 4 seats where UKIP are > 50% chance.

richardDodd said:

Fillet of God

Holy Fillet?

John 18:36

Jesus answered, My kingdom is not of this world: if my kingdom were of this world, then would my servants fight, that I should not be delivered to the Jews: but now is my kingdom not from hence.

TGOHF said:

logical_song said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@LadPolitics

Reckless likely to lose Rochester next May, say bookies. http://ow.ly/EViA5

The bookies are all Tories?

"According to our individual constituency prices, that means Rochester & Strood is now the eighth most likely win for UKIP at the general election. The UKIP win % is the chance of them taking the seat at the general election, as implied by our odds"

Something amiss if 8th most likely seats is odds against and SPIN has Kipper seats at 10.5

Potential Arb ?

Not really as UKIP could conceivably be odds against in every seat and Kipper seats be a buy at 100.5

That link also shows only 4 seats where UKIP are > 50% chance.

And % fall away sharply.

A lot of money to be made by MikeK when his 85 seats prediction comes in.

Someone cleverer than me can work out the odds of all of the top 10 Kipper targets landing.


Rank Seat Win 2010 UKIP Win %
1 Clacton Cons 82.25%
2 Thanet South Cons 64.58%
3 Thurrock Cons 57.47%
4 Boston & Skegness Cons 56.06%
5 Great Yarmouth Cons 40.33%
6 Castle Point Cons 38.47%
7 Thanet North Cons 36.55%
8 Rochester & Strood Cons 35.87%
9 Great Grimsby Lab 32.94%
10 Rotherham Lab 28.51%
11 Cannock Chase Cons 27.91%
12 Dover Cons 27.77%
13 Louth & Horncastle Cons 26.29%
14 Basildon S & Thurrock E Cons 25.67%
15 Folkestone & Hythe Cons 22.65%
16 Sittingbourne & Sheppey Cons 22.57%
17 Eastleigh LD 20.81%
18 Camborne & Redruth Cons 20.23%
19 St Austell & Newquay LD 19.83%
20 Portsmouth South LD 19.66%

I am sure they could, but that isn't the way to work out whether to buy or sell the seats at 9.5-11.5

Miss Cyclefree, in Jesus' kingdom there is a plaice for everyone.

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Cyclefree, in Jesus' kingdom there is a plaice for everyone.

Even traitorous pigdogs, whomever the next one will be!

isam said:

TGOHF said:

logical_song said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@LadPolitics

Reckless likely to lose Rochester next May, say bookies. http://ow.ly/EViA5

The bookies are all Tories?

"According to our individual constituency prices, that means Rochester & Strood is now the eighth most likely win for UKIP at the general election. The UKIP win % is the chance of them taking the seat at the general election, as implied by our odds"

Something amiss if 8th most likely seats is odds against and SPIN has Kipper seats at 10.5

Potential Arb ?

Not really as UKIP could conceivably be odds against in every seat and Kipper seats be a buy at 100.5

That link also shows only 4 seats where UKIP are > 50% chance.

And % fall away sharply.

A lot of money to be made by MikeK when his 85 seats prediction comes in.

Someone cleverer than me can work out the odds of all of the top 10 Kipper targets landing.


Rank Seat Win 2010 UKIP Win %
1 Clacton Cons 82.25%
2 Thanet South Cons 64.58%
3 Thurrock Cons 57.47%
4 Boston & Skegness Cons 56.06%
5 Great Yarmouth Cons 40.33%
6 Castle Point Cons 38.47%
7 Thanet North Cons 36.55%
8 Rochester & Strood Cons 35.87%
9 Great Grimsby Lab 32.94%
10 Rotherham Lab 28.51%
11 Cannock Chase Cons 27.91%
12 Dover Cons 27.77%
13 Louth & Horncastle Cons 26.29%
14 Basildon S & Thurrock E Cons 25.67%
15 Folkestone & Hythe Cons 22.65%
16 Sittingbourne & Sheppey Cons 22.57%
17 Eastleigh LD 20.81%
18 Camborne & Redruth Cons 20.23%
19 St Austell & Newquay LD 19.83%
20 Portsmouth South LD 19.66%

I am sure they could, but that isn't the way to work out whether to buy or sell the seats at 9.5-11.5

but probably enough evidence to suggest William hills 8/1 on UKIp winning 3-4 seats is whopping value

If you add up the UKIP probabilities (as implied by Ladbrokes odds) from all 632 GB seats, you actually get to about 30 seats.

Not that I think that is a very good way of estimating their likely total. Although I have bought them at 10 with SPIN.

Charles said:

Jesus was a teacher, while Peter, James, John, etc were all in the agricultural sector.

Perfect combination of public and private sector.

Is there much of a Messiah requirement in today's public sector?

SNP seem a buy at 20.5 on the spreads compared to where fixed odds bookies have their lines

Interesting that people have taken 'Jesus' to be the moral view irrespective of their own. It's quite a relief to know that despite the rise of UKIP most people still recognize where the moral compass points.

Roger said:

Interesting that people have taken 'Jesus' to be the moral view irrespective of their own. It's quite a relief to know that despite the rise of UKIP most people still recognize where the moral compass points.

The EU?

Was Jesus a Birkenstock or a Gandys flip-flop kinda guy…? – discuss.

I assume this shows that the YouGov population sample is inherently left of centre - and will thus exaggerate Labour popularity,

weejonnie said:

I assume this shows that the YouGov population sample is inherently left of centre - and will thus exaggerate Labour popularity,

Not necessarily. Could be the difference between idealism and realism.

audreyanne said:

With the Labour lead back to 1, and therefore likely to fall away when the sub-sample drops off, can I make a strong suggestion to Mike that you stop posting every single poll between now and the GE? Some will be favourable, some won't be. It would be very wise to do a poll thread every few days, preferably even weekly. This I know won't be popular with all, but there's a serious danger that you are getting blown hither and thither by every passing poll. Circumspection based on seeing the trends would enhance, rather than devalue, this site.

In terms of thread coverage, there must be plenty of other ways to report politics. And there would be nothing wrong occasionally with simply having an Open thread, a little like Nighthawks, in the daytime. Not every discussion has to be led from the front.

There hasn't been a Tory lead for nearly a week now.

Are they planning to do a series like this? The views of other gods will be very interesting. Odin on gay marriage will be a hoot! (Totally in favour obviously as he's Scandinavian)

@Omnium

Odin may have had gender dysphoria according to legend.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

audreyanne said:

With the Labour lead back to 1, and therefore likely to fall away when the sub-sample drops off, can I make a strong suggestion to Mike that you stop posting every single poll between now and the GE? Some will be favourable, some won't be. It would be very wise to do a poll thread every few days, preferably even weekly. This I know won't be popular with all, but there's a serious danger that you are getting blown hither and thither by every passing poll. Circumspection based on seeing the trends would enhance, rather than devalue, this site.

In terms of thread coverage, there must be plenty of other ways to report politics. And there would be nothing wrong occasionally with simply having an Open thread, a little like Nighthawks, in the daytime. Not every discussion has to be led from the front.

There hasn't been a Tory lead for nearly a week now.

There had been a time when there hadn't been one in 18 months!

Easterross said:

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

Even tax collectors came to be baptized. “Teacher,” they asked, “what should we do?”

“Don’t collect any more than you are required to,” he told them.

St. Matthew was a tax collector, St. Luke a doctor. Jesus was a teacher, while Peter, James, John, etc were all in the agricultural sector.

Perfect combination of public and private sector.

In the bible I have, Jesus was a carpenter who became an itinerant lay preacher. Definitely private sector.

Not the KJV, then. I am shocked!

Although a carpenter by background, he went on to become a teacher - admittedly a locum, but still effective.

bigjohnowls,

Labour doing better this week is unlikely to be Mylene. More likely, dancing to the Ukip theme on immigration is the reason. Do you approve?

@Omnium
Are you sure that wasn't Thor?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

audreyanne said:

With the Labour lead back to 1, and therefore likely to fall away when the sub-sample drops off, can I make a strong suggestion to Mike that you stop posting every single poll between now and the GE? Some will be favourable, some won't be. It would be very wise to do a poll thread every few days, preferably even weekly. This I know won't be popular with all, but there's a serious danger that you are getting blown hither and thither by every passing poll. Circumspection based on seeing the trends would enhance, rather than devalue, this site.

In terms of thread coverage, there must be plenty of other ways to report politics. And there would be nothing wrong occasionally with simply having an Open thread, a little like Nighthawks, in the daytime. Not every discussion has to be led from the front.

There hasn't been a Tory lead for nearly a week now.

Clearly the Tories are experiencing some downward revision after Rochester and Strood. This further evinces a theory I have held since the Cleggasm: namely that a more sophisticated public uses opinion polls not to indicate intended behaviour but rather as a commentary on the perceived Zeitgeist. In short: all polling is now junk.

A new poll conducted by ComRes for ITV News reveals that Labour retains its lead over the Conservatives in the forty most marginal seats where the two parties are fighting head-to-head against each other ahead of the General Election next year.

However, Labour’s lead falls from 11 points in September to eight points now. Its potential vote share has fallen two points to 39%, while the Conservatives are on 31%. At the General Election in 2010, the two main parties were tied on 37% across these seats.

The Liberal Democrats are now on 7%, while UKIP are in third place on 18% – suggesting Nigel Farage’s party could play a significant role in determining who comes out top in these crucial battlegrounds.

Con 31% (+1)

Lab 39% (-2)

Lib Dem 7% (+1)

UKIP 18% (+1)
Others 4% (-3)

(Figures in brackets show changes from October 2014)

http://comres.co.uk/poll/1329/itv-news-marginal-constituencies-poll-november-2014.htm

Smarmeron said:

@Omnium
Are you sure that wasn't Thor?

Odin was old and grumpy and disapproving of Thor and his goldilocks and his toting a hammer around. I'd always assumed it was because he worried about the lad. I will concede though that my concept of gayness at the time was pretty much restricted to Liberal Party leaders, and I had a very hazy idea of what it entailed. I think you can see why Norse gods of any description didn't quite line up with the Liberal leadership in my ten year old mind. Clearly though with the onset of the LibDems and Clegg things have changed. Worthy of the Halls of Valhalla to a man/woman/person of other gender.

Moses_ said:

Pulpstar said:

Are we going to get polling on what would Abraham, Mohammed, Buddha and Moses would do ?

Moses wouldn't vote Labour I know that.

And we know Abraham was a Tory: prepared to sacrifice little children to get what he wanted.

RodCrosby said:

MarkHopkins said:

I just loaded up a list of US Senators...

http://show.nojam.com/a65/search.php

I was looking for a list of UK MPs - with more details than just the name.

The parliament web site only seems to allow searching on its site (no download). Does anyone know of a list of open data like this?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_MPs_elected_in_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010

Or buy the Times Guide to the House of Commons...

Theyworkforyou, or the public whip will also be other good places to get a list.

@Omnium
Have a quick butchers, though if it messes with your childhood memories, I bear no responsibilities.
http://norse-mythology.org/gods-and-creatures/the-aesir-gods-and-goddesses/odin/

TheScreamingEagles said:

A new poll conducted by ComRes for ITV News reveals that Labour retains its lead over the Conservatives in the forty most marginal seats where the two parties are fighting head-to-head against each other ahead of the General Election next year.

However, Labour’s lead falls from 11 points in September to eight points now. Its potential vote share has fallen two points to 39%, while the Conservatives are on 31%. At the General Election in 2010, the two main parties were tied on 37% across these seats.

The Liberal Democrats are now on 7%, while UKIP are in third place on 18% – suggesting Nigel Farage’s party could play a significant role in determining who comes out top in these crucial battlegrounds.

Con 31% (+1)

Lab 39% (-2)

Lib Dem 7% (+1)

UKIP 18% (+1)
Others 4% (-3)

(Figures in brackets show changes from October 2014)

http://comres.co.uk/poll/1329/itv-news-marginal-constituencies-poll-november-2014.htm

That's equivalent to a 1% Labour lead, overall.

i wonder if Jesus was a "white cart man?" With judea flags hanging outside the carpenters shop?

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

A new poll conducted by ComRes for ITV News reveals that Labour retains its lead over the Conservatives in the forty most marginal seats where the two parties are fighting head-to-head against each other ahead of the General Election next year.

However, Labour’s lead falls from 11 points in September to eight points now. Its potential vote share has fallen two points to 39%, while the Conservatives are on 31%. At the General Election in 2010, the two main parties were tied on 37% across these seats.

The Liberal Democrats are now on 7%, while UKIP are in third place on 18% – suggesting Nigel Farage’s party could play a significant role in determining who comes out top in these crucial battlegrounds.

Con 31% (+1)

Lab 39% (-2)

Lib Dem 7% (+1)

UKIP 18% (+1)
Others 4% (-3)

(Figures in brackets show changes from October 2014)

http://comres.co.uk/poll/1329/itv-news-marginal-constituencies-poll-november-2014.htm

That's equivalent to a 1% Labour lead, overall.

Arent these the vital constituencies where GE2015 will be decided?

dr_spyn said:

Sturgeon sounds (via BBC News 24 live) as if she wants to ratchet up income taxes, and talking up case for living wage in private sector in Scotland. Why not just go the whole hog and set up an incomes policy. Back to the 70s with the SNP's socialist nationalism.

Fertile grounds for a Tory revival in Scotland? (I live in hope).

TheScreamingEagles said:

A new poll conducted by ComRes for ITV News reveals that Labour retains its lead over the Conservatives in the forty most marginal seats where the two parties are fighting head-to-head against each other ahead of the General Election next year.

However, Labour’s lead falls from 11 points in September to eight points now. Its potential vote share has fallen two points to 39%, while the Conservatives are on 31%. At the General Election in 2010, the two main parties were tied on 37% across these seats.

The Liberal Democrats are now on 7%, while UKIP are in third place on 18% – suggesting Nigel Farage’s party could play a significant role in determining who comes out top in these crucial battlegrounds.

Con 31% (+1)

Lab 39% (-2)

Lib Dem 7% (+1)

UKIP 18% (+1)
Others 4% (-3)

(Figures in brackets show changes from October 2014)

http://comres.co.uk/poll/1329/itv-news-marginal-constituencies-poll-november-2014.htm

For clarity, this is 25 most marginal (Conservative held) and 15 most marginal (Labour held) so that's something to be aware of when drawing conclusions from it.

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

A new poll conducted by ComRes for ITV News reveals that Labour retains its lead over the Conservatives in the forty most marginal seats where the two parties are fighting head-to-head against each other ahead of the General Election next year.

However, Labour’s lead falls from 11 points in September to eight points now. Its potential vote share has fallen two points to 39%, while the Conservatives are on 31%. At the General Election in 2010, the two main parties were tied on 37% across these seats.

The Liberal Democrats are now on 7%, while UKIP are in third place on 18% – suggesting Nigel Farage’s party could play a significant role in determining who comes out top in these crucial battlegrounds.

Con 31% (+1)

Lab 39% (-2)

Lib Dem 7% (+1)

UKIP 18% (+1)
Others 4% (-3)

(Figures in brackets show changes from October 2014)

http://comres.co.uk/poll/1329/itv-news-marginal-constituencies-poll-november-2014.htm

For clarity, this is 25 most marginal (Conservative held) and 15 most marginal (Labour held) so that's something to be aware of when drawing conclusions from it.

Really it would be better concentrating on the 40 con held marginals which will presumably much closer.

Anyone know what the 25 con held ones show in this?

Peter Hitchens had a barney with Benjamin Zephaniah about "what would Jesus do?" regarding the occupation around St Pauls a couple of years ago on QT

BZ said he would be out there with Jenny Jones etc, PH said he wouldn't get involved