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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » From YouGov: How would Jesus view immigration, gay marriage

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  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    edited November 2014
    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Seriously.

    If you had spent the night travelling through Judea on a rail replacement donkey service, you too would support re-nationalisation.

    Given that He walked on water, I doubt that He would stand around waiting for a replacement anything. He had the Ascension option as well.

    Hmm - not sure Kippers would approve of middle eastern types who could walk on water - as they could easily avoid using patrolled ports to enter from Sangatte.
    And clearly being a very bad geography student, thinking that they'd come to England to rebuild Jerusalem.

    Wouldn't Jesus say 'render unto Caesar that which is Caesar's' etc?
    Jesus could raise the dead so all this should interest Clegg and co.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    The EU remains rubbish, I see.

    and the Pope Catholic.

    All is normal with the world!
  • Lets face it if Jesus was alive today NOBODY would give a toss about his views because he would be classed as a fantasist. What do you do when someone talks to you ,in all seriousness' about being the son of God and that he once fed 5 thousand people with a fish and that he has 12 best mates (all male!!) !
    err you politely nod and then look to escape

    Someone who can spread one fish over 5,000 meals would work well in a fast food recipe dept - or even found a new franchise and become a multi billionaire.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341
    CD13 said:

    ThomasNashe,

    John the Evangelist supposedly wrote the fourth gospel, probably written last and towards the end of the first century.

    John the Baptist had been beheaded many years earlier - think Salome and the dancing. He was also a strict hermit and lived on honey and insects. Not one for socialising with anyone.

    Were these not locust beans rather than Locusta migratoria?

  • Lets face it if Jesus was alive today NOBODY would give a toss about his views because he would be classed as a fantasist. What do you do when someone talks to you ,in all seriousness' about being the son of God and that he once fed 5 thousand people with a fish and that he has 12 best mates (all male!!) !
    err you politely nod and then look to escape

    Someone who can spread one fish over 5,000 meals would work well in a fast food recipe dept - or even found a new franchise and become a multi billionaire.
    Filet O Bishop?
  • TGOHF said:

    RobD said:

    Sorry, they've just identified a third of a trillion euro black hole in the EU budget.


    What?!?

    They haven't spent it yet ...

    "In a special report earlier this week, EU auditors identified the sum in outstanding bills for legally binding spending commitments made by the European Commission over the last four years.
    “Assuming that commitments will not be de-committed, and we don’t see how most of them could, it might be problematic to get this money from member states to finance the expenditure foreseen,” Igor Ludborzs, an EU auditor, told the Euractiv website."
    Have the EC folk been borrowing money from Wonga?
  • @LadPolitics

    Reckless likely to lose Rochester next May, say bookies. http://ow.ly/EViA5

    The bookies are all Tories?
    :)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The Good Lady Wifi

    I hope that's autocorrect...
  • Mr. Betting, yeah, but what an ego. He thinks he's God's gift.
  • Jesus was the world's first socialist!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    @LadPolitics

    Reckless likely to lose Rochester next May, say bookies. http://ow.ly/EViA5

    The bookies are all Tories?
    :)
    "According to our individual constituency prices, that means Rochester & Strood is now the eighth most likely win for UKIP at the general election. The UKIP win % is the chance of them taking the seat at the general election, as implied by our odds"

    Something amiss if 8th most likely seats is odds against and SPIN has Kipper seats at 10.5

    Potential Arb ?
  • Dr. Prasannan, as has already been noted, he told his followers to pay their bloody taxes (I paraphrase).
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2014
    TGOHF said:

    @LadPolitics

    Reckless likely to lose Rochester next May, say bookies. http://ow.ly/EViA5

    The bookies are all Tories?
    :)
    "According to our individual constituency prices, that means Rochester & Strood is now the eighth most likely win for UKIP at the general election. The UKIP win % is the chance of them taking the seat at the general election, as implied by our odds"

    Something amiss if 8th most likely seats is odds against and SPIN has Kipper seats at 10.5

    Potential Arb ?
    Not really as UKIP could conceivably be odds against in every seat and Kipper seats be a buy at 100.5
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Scott_P said:

    The Good Lady Wifi

    I hope that's autocorrect...
    No, that's correct....she's everywhere......
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Cyclefree said:

    Someone down thread said "shouldn't this be a thread for Christmas Day?". Heretic! Burn them!!

    Any yule fule know that Christmas Day is Crossword Day......

    That was me.

    Gulp!

    Will my Post of the Year (your words not mine) not save me?!

    I may have to pray.

    It will be entered into mitigation. But this is a tough looking jury.....
    Tough looking?

    You feeling hard then?
  • Lets face it if Jesus was alive today NOBODY would give a toss about his views because he would be classed as a fantasist. What do you do when someone talks to you ,in all seriousness' about being the son of God and that he once fed 5 thousand people with a fish and that he has 12 best mates (all male!!) !
    err you politely nod and then look to escape

    Someone who can spread one fish over 5,000 meals would work well in a fast food recipe dept - or even found a new franchise and become a multi billionaire.
    Filet O Bishop?
    No that's the meat menu.
  • Scott_P said:

    The Good Lady Wifi

    I hope that's autocorrect...
    No, that's correct....she's everywhere......
    -Broad-band?

    -Nah, I've always been a fella!
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Fillet of God
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Even tax collectors came to be baptized. “Teacher,” they asked, “what should we do?”

    “Don’t collect any more than you are required to,” he told them.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    Fillet of God

    you want fries with that?

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited November 2014

    That said, Al Darling managed to lose HALF a trillion POUNDS down the back of the sofa between Statements to the House, so I'm sure the Europhiles will tell us we can just take it in our stride......

    Europhiles will say that folk in Govt signed up to these principles 20+ years ago and that the civil servants know about the commitments and that it should have all been budgeted for if only Ministers paid attention and it would be lower if we were less suspicious of the EC civil servants.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9CjnDufqeQ
  • Janan Ganesh: Nothing says government-in-waiting like a hashtag campaign twinned with conspiracy theories about its lack of media coverage.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2014
    Following up my comment that Osborne looked Ill at Pmqs, Mike Smithson retweets...

    Ross McCafferty (@RossMcCaff)
    26/11/2014 12:15
    Where in gods name was George Osborne last night? He looks like he slept in a ditch #pmqs
    pic.twitter.com/CgYxswbQcd
  • isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    @LadPolitics

    Reckless likely to lose Rochester next May, say bookies. http://ow.ly/EViA5

    The bookies are all Tories?
    :)
    "According to our individual constituency prices, that means Rochester & Strood is now the eighth most likely win for UKIP at the general election. The UKIP win % is the chance of them taking the seat at the general election, as implied by our odds"

    Something amiss if 8th most likely seats is odds against and SPIN has Kipper seats at 10.5

    Potential Arb ?
    Not really as UKIP could conceivably be odds against in every seat and Kipper seats be a buy at 100.5
    That link also shows only 4 seats where UKIP are > 50% chance.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    @LadPolitics

    Reckless likely to lose Rochester next May, say bookies. http://ow.ly/EViA5

    The bookies are all Tories?
    :)
    "According to our individual constituency prices, that means Rochester & Strood is now the eighth most likely win for UKIP at the general election. The UKIP win % is the chance of them taking the seat at the general election, as implied by our odds"

    Something amiss if 8th most likely seats is odds against and SPIN has Kipper seats at 10.5

    Potential Arb ?
    Not really as UKIP could conceivably be odds against in every seat and Kipper seats be a buy at 100.5
    That link also shows only 4 seats where UKIP are > 50% chance.
    I know, I saw it

    So what?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited November 2014

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    @LadPolitics

    Reckless likely to lose Rochester next May, say bookies. http://ow.ly/EViA5

    The bookies are all Tories?
    :)
    "According to our individual constituency prices, that means Rochester & Strood is now the eighth most likely win for UKIP at the general election. The UKIP win % is the chance of them taking the seat at the general election, as implied by our odds"

    Something amiss if 8th most likely seats is odds against and SPIN has Kipper seats at 10.5

    Potential Arb ?
    Not really as UKIP could conceivably be odds against in every seat and Kipper seats be a buy at 100.5
    That link also shows only 4 seats where UKIP are > 50% chance.
    And % fall away sharply.

    A lot of money to be made by MikeK when his 85 seats prediction comes in.

    Someone cleverer than me can work out the odds of all of the top 10 Kipper targets landing.


    Rank Seat Win 2010 UKIP Win %
    1 Clacton Cons 82.25%
    2 Thanet South Cons 64.58%
    3 Thurrock Cons 57.47%
    4 Boston & Skegness Cons 56.06%
    5 Great Yarmouth Cons 40.33%
    6 Castle Point Cons 38.47%
    7 Thanet North Cons 36.55%
    8 Rochester & Strood Cons 35.87%
    9 Great Grimsby Lab 32.94%
    10 Rotherham Lab 28.51%
    11 Cannock Chase Cons 27.91%
    12 Dover Cons 27.77%
    13 Louth & Horncastle Cons 26.29%
    14 Basildon S & Thurrock E Cons 25.67%
    15 Folkestone & Hythe Cons 22.65%
    16 Sittingbourne & Sheppey Cons 22.57%
    17 Eastleigh LD 20.81%
    18 Camborne & Redruth Cons 20.23%
    19 St Austell & Newquay LD 19.83%
    20 Portsmouth South LD 19.66%
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Carnyx,

    "Were these not locust beans rather than Locusta migratoria?"

    Give him a break. Would he have been so cheerful if he was veggie too? Although I did wonder how he managed to catch the little blighters.


  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Fillet of God

    Holy Fillet?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited November 2014
    dr_spyn said:

    Even tax collectors came to be baptized. “Teacher,” they asked, “what should we do?”

    “Don’t collect any more than you are required to,” he told them.

    St. Matthew was a tax collector, St. Luke a doctor. Jesus was a teacher, while Peter, James, John, etc were all in the agricultural sector.

    Perfect combination of public and private sector.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    John 18:36

    Jesus answered, My kingdom is not of this world: if my kingdom were of this world, then would my servants fight, that I should not be delivered to the Jews: but now is my kingdom not from hence.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326

    Cyclefree said:

    Someone down thread said "shouldn't this be a thread for Christmas Day?". Heretic! Burn them!!

    Any yule fule know that Christmas Day is Crossword Day......

    That was me.

    Gulp!

    Will my Post of the Year (your words not mine) not save me?!

    I may have to pray.

    It will be entered into mitigation. But this is a tough looking jury.....
    I will just have to melt your hearts.......

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2014
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    @LadPolitics

    Reckless likely to lose Rochester next May, say bookies. http://ow.ly/EViA5

    The bookies are all Tories?
    :)
    "According to our individual constituency prices, that means Rochester & Strood is now the eighth most likely win for UKIP at the general election. The UKIP win % is the chance of them taking the seat at the general election, as implied by our odds"

    Something amiss if 8th most likely seats is odds against and SPIN has Kipper seats at 10.5

    Potential Arb ?
    Not really as UKIP could conceivably be odds against in every seat and Kipper seats be a buy at 100.5
    That link also shows only 4 seats where UKIP are > 50% chance.
    And % fall away sharply.

    A lot of money to be made by MikeK when his 85 seats prediction comes in.

    Someone cleverer than me can work out the odds of all of the top 10 Kipper targets landing.


    Rank Seat Win 2010 UKIP Win %
    1 Clacton Cons 82.25%
    2 Thanet South Cons 64.58%
    3 Thurrock Cons 57.47%
    4 Boston & Skegness Cons 56.06%
    5 Great Yarmouth Cons 40.33%
    6 Castle Point Cons 38.47%
    7 Thanet North Cons 36.55%
    8 Rochester & Strood Cons 35.87%
    9 Great Grimsby Lab 32.94%
    10 Rotherham Lab 28.51%
    11 Cannock Chase Cons 27.91%
    12 Dover Cons 27.77%
    13 Louth & Horncastle Cons 26.29%
    14 Basildon S & Thurrock E Cons 25.67%
    15 Folkestone & Hythe Cons 22.65%
    16 Sittingbourne & Sheppey Cons 22.57%
    17 Eastleigh LD 20.81%
    18 Camborne & Redruth Cons 20.23%
    19 St Austell & Newquay LD 19.83%
    20 Portsmouth South LD 19.66%
    I am sure they could, but that isn't the way to work out whether to buy or sell the seats at 9.5-11.5
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Charles said:

    Fillet of God

    Holy Fillet?
    Saving Soles.

  • Miss Cyclefree, in Jesus' kingdom there is a plaice for everyone.
  • Did the fish / feeding thing involve enormous haddocks?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034

    Miss Cyclefree, in Jesus' kingdom there is a plaice for everyone.

    Even traitorous pigdogs, whomever the next one will be!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    Miss Cyclefree, in Jesus' kingdom there is a plaice for everyone.

    Even traitorous pigdogs, whomever the next one will be!
    Heaven has a place for a sinner who repents!
  • isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    @LadPolitics

    Reckless likely to lose Rochester next May, say bookies. http://ow.ly/EViA5

    The bookies are all Tories?
    :)
    "According to our individual constituency prices, that means Rochester & Strood is now the eighth most likely win for UKIP at the general election. The UKIP win % is the chance of them taking the seat at the general election, as implied by our odds"

    Something amiss if 8th most likely seats is odds against and SPIN has Kipper seats at 10.5

    Potential Arb ?
    Not really as UKIP could conceivably be odds against in every seat and Kipper seats be a buy at 100.5
    That link also shows only 4 seats where UKIP are > 50% chance.
    And % fall away sharply.

    A lot of money to be made by MikeK when his 85 seats prediction comes in.

    Someone cleverer than me can work out the odds of all of the top 10 Kipper targets landing.


    Rank Seat Win 2010 UKIP Win %
    1 Clacton Cons 82.25%
    2 Thanet South Cons 64.58%
    3 Thurrock Cons 57.47%
    4 Boston & Skegness Cons 56.06%
    5 Great Yarmouth Cons 40.33%
    6 Castle Point Cons 38.47%
    7 Thanet North Cons 36.55%
    8 Rochester & Strood Cons 35.87%
    9 Great Grimsby Lab 32.94%
    10 Rotherham Lab 28.51%
    11 Cannock Chase Cons 27.91%
    12 Dover Cons 27.77%
    13 Louth & Horncastle Cons 26.29%
    14 Basildon S & Thurrock E Cons 25.67%
    15 Folkestone & Hythe Cons 22.65%
    16 Sittingbourne & Sheppey Cons 22.57%
    17 Eastleigh LD 20.81%
    18 Camborne & Redruth Cons 20.23%
    19 St Austell & Newquay LD 19.83%
    20 Portsmouth South LD 19.66%
    I am sure they could, but that isn't the way to work out whether to buy or sell the seats at 9.5-11.5
    but probably enough evidence to suggest William hills 8/1 on UKIp winning 3-4 seats is whopping value
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326

    Miss Cyclefree, in Jesus' kingdom there is a plaice for everyone.

    Well, thank Cod for that!

  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    If you add up the UKIP probabilities (as implied by Ladbrokes odds) from all 632 GB seats, you actually get to about 30 seats.

    Not that I think that is a very good way of estimating their likely total. Although I have bought them at 10 with SPIN.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    isam said:

    Following up my comment that Osborne looked Ill at Pmqs, Mike Smithson retweets...

    Ross McCafferty (@RossMcCaff)
    26/11/2014 12:15
    Where in gods name was George Osborne last night? He looks like he slept in a ditch #pmqs
    pic.twitter.com/CgYxswbQcd

    Treasury Xmas Party in a crypt, by the look of him. Probably slept in a coffin.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Charles said:


    Jesus was a teacher, while Peter, James, John, etc were all in the agricultural sector.

    Perfect combination of public and private sector.

    Is there much of a Messiah requirement in today's public sector?

  • Mr. Patrick, I can confirm that I am not Jesus.
  • SNP seem a buy at 20.5 on the spreads compared to where fixed odds bookies have their lines
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721

    All those who praise multiculturism should reflect that if this thread was on another religion, it would be closed down amid a storm of protests and fatwas .


    You forgot police investigations and arrests.
    Some religions are more equal than others.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    Interesting that people have taken 'Jesus' to be the moral view irrespective of their own. It's quite a relief to know that despite the rise of UKIP most people still recognize where the moral compass points.

  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    With the Labour lead back to 1, and therefore likely to fall away when the sub-sample drops off, can I make a strong suggestion to Mike that you stop posting every single poll between now and the GE? Some will be favourable, some won't be. It would be very wise to do a poll thread every few days, preferably even weekly. This I know won't be popular with all, but there's a serious danger that you are getting blown hither and thither by every passing poll. Circumspection based on seeing the trends would enhance, rather than devalue, this site.

    In terms of thread coverage, there must be plenty of other ways to report politics. And there would be nothing wrong occasionally with simply having an Open thread, a little like Nighthawks, in the daytime. Not every discussion has to be led from the front.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Seriously.

    If you had spent the night travelling through Judea on a rail replacement donkey service, you too would support re-nationalisation.

    Given that He walked on water, I doubt that He would stand around waiting for a replacement anything. He had the Ascension option as well.

    Hmm - not sure Kippers would approve of middle eastern types who could walk on water - as they could easily avoid using patrolled ports to enter from Sangatte.
    but they allow immigrants in on a points basis I believe- and how many points does being able to walk on water get you? loads I would have thought!!
    you know "Points based" is code for "how white are you ?"

    Probably have a British passport anyway as anyone civilised knows that the Son of God must be an Englishman and probably from Yorkshire

    Either that or Labour used to give them away with a subscription to the Palestine Times.
  • With the Labour lead back to 1, and therefore likely to fall away when the sub-sample drops off, can I make a strong suggestion to Mike that you stop posting every single poll between now and the GE? Some will be favourable, some won't be. It would be very wise to do a poll thread every few days, preferably even weekly. This I know won't be popular with all, but there's a serious danger that you are getting blown hither and thither by every passing poll. Circumspection based on seeing the trends would enhance, rather than devalue, this site.

    In terms of thread coverage, there must be plenty of other ways to report politics. And there would be nothing wrong occasionally with simply having an Open thread, a little like Nighthawks, in the daytime. Not every discussion has to be led from the front.

    coup attempt
  • Roger said:

    Interesting that people have taken 'Jesus' to be the moral view irrespective of their own. It's quite a relief to know that despite the rise of UKIP most people still recognize where the moral compass points.

    The EU?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    With the Labour lead back to 1, and therefore likely to fall away when the sub-sample drops off, can I make a strong suggestion to Mike that you stop posting every single poll between now and the GE? Some will be favourable, some won't be. It would be very wise to do a poll thread every few days, preferably even weekly. This I know won't be popular with all, but there's a serious danger that you are getting blown hither and thither by every passing poll. Circumspection based on seeing the trends would enhance, rather than devalue, this site.

    In terms of thread coverage, there must be plenty of other ways to report politics. And there would be nothing wrong occasionally with simply having an Open thread, a little like Nighthawks, in the daytime. Not every discussion has to be led from the front.

    Some of us have been enjoying the site since 2004 and are quite content with the way OGH chooses his threads .
  • Was Jesus a Birkenstock or a Gandys flip-flop kinda guy…? – discuss.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034

    With the Labour lead back to 1, and therefore likely to fall away when the sub-sample drops off, can I make a strong suggestion to Mike that you stop posting every single poll between now and the GE? Some will be favourable, some won't be. It would be very wise to do a poll thread every few days, preferably even weekly. This I know won't be popular with all, but there's a serious danger that you are getting blown hither and thither by every passing poll. Circumspection based on seeing the trends would enhance, rather than devalue, this site.

    In terms of thread coverage, there must be plenty of other ways to report politics. And there would be nothing wrong occasionally with simply having an Open thread, a little like Nighthawks, in the daytime. Not every discussion has to be led from the front.

    I think reporting them is fine (and one of the raison d'êtres of PB). Reading too much in to one poll can be a bit tiresome, but it's just a bit of fun (EMICIPM anyone?).
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    I assume this shows that the YouGov population sample is inherently left of centre - and will thus exaggerate Labour popularity,
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Roger said:

    Interesting that people have taken 'Jesus' to be the moral view irrespective of their own. It's quite a relief to know that despite the rise of UKIP most people still recognize where the moral compass points.

    Is there any evidence that UKIP supporters are more or less religious than other cohorts?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034
    weejonnie said:

    I assume this shows that the YouGov population sample is inherently left of centre - and will thus exaggerate Labour popularity,

    Not necessarily. Could be the difference between idealism and realism.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034

    With the Labour lead back to 1, and therefore likely to fall away when the sub-sample drops off, can I make a strong suggestion to Mike that you stop posting every single poll between now and the GE? Some will be favourable, some won't be. It would be very wise to do a poll thread every few days, preferably even weekly. This I know won't be popular with all, but there's a serious danger that you are getting blown hither and thither by every passing poll. Circumspection based on seeing the trends would enhance, rather than devalue, this site.

    In terms of thread coverage, there must be plenty of other ways to report politics. And there would be nothing wrong occasionally with simply having an Open thread, a little like Nighthawks, in the daytime. Not every discussion has to be led from the front.

    Some of us have been enjoying the site since 2004 and are quite content with the way OGH chooses his threads .
    Careful now, that's getting close to a Mellor-esque "don't you know who I am" ;)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    With the Labour lead back to 1, and therefore likely to fall away when the sub-sample drops off, can I make a strong suggestion to Mike that you stop posting every single poll between now and the GE? Some will be favourable, some won't be. It would be very wise to do a poll thread every few days, preferably even weekly. This I know won't be popular with all, but there's a serious danger that you are getting blown hither and thither by every passing poll. Circumspection based on seeing the trends would enhance, rather than devalue, this site.

    In terms of thread coverage, there must be plenty of other ways to report politics. And there would be nothing wrong occasionally with simply having an Open thread, a little like Nighthawks, in the daytime. Not every discussion has to be led from the front.

    Never heard of "clickbait" ?
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Charles said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Even tax collectors came to be baptized. “Teacher,” they asked, “what should we do?”

    “Don’t collect any more than you are required to,” he told them.

    St. Matthew was a tax collector, St. Luke a doctor. Jesus was a teacher, while Peter, James, John, etc were all in the agricultural sector.

    Perfect combination of public and private sector.
    In the bible I have, Jesus was a carpenter who became an itinerant lay preacher. Definitely private sector.
  • With the Labour lead back to 1, and therefore likely to fall away when the sub-sample drops off, can I make a strong suggestion to Mike that you stop posting every single poll between now and the GE? Some will be favourable, some won't be. It would be very wise to do a poll thread every few days, preferably even weekly. This I know won't be popular with all, but there's a serious danger that you are getting blown hither and thither by every passing poll. Circumspection based on seeing the trends would enhance, rather than devalue, this site.

    In terms of thread coverage, there must be plenty of other ways to report politics. And there would be nothing wrong occasionally with simply having an Open thread, a little like Nighthawks, in the daytime. Not every discussion has to be led from the front.

    There hasn't been a Tory lead for nearly a week now.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    @LadPolitics

    Reckless likely to lose Rochester next May, say bookies. http://ow.ly/EViA5

    The bookies are all Tories?
    :)
    "According to our individual constituency prices, that means Rochester & Strood is now the eighth most likely win for UKIP at the general election. The UKIP win % is the chance of them taking the seat at the general election, as implied by our odds"

    Something amiss if 8th most likely seats is odds against and SPIN has Kipper seats at 10.5

    Potential Arb ?
    Not really as UKIP could conceivably be odds against in every seat and Kipper seats be a buy at 100.5
    That link also shows only 4 seats where UKIP are > 50% chance.
    And % fall away sharply.

    A lot of money to be made by MikeK when his 85 seats prediction comes in.

    Someone cleverer than me can work out the odds of all of the top 10 Kipper targets landing.


    Rank Seat Win 2010 UKIP Win %
    1 Clacton Cons 82.25%
    2 Thanet South Cons 64.58%
    3 Thurrock Cons 57.47%
    4 Boston & Skegness Cons 56.06%
    5 Great Yarmouth Cons 40.33%
    6 Castle Point Cons 38.47%
    7 Thanet North Cons 36.55%
    8 Rochester & Strood Cons 35.87%
    9 Great Grimsby Lab 32.94%
    10 Rotherham Lab 28.51%
    11 Cannock Chase Cons 27.91%
    12 Dover Cons 27.77%
    13 Louth & Horncastle Cons 26.29%
    14 Basildon S & Thurrock E Cons 25.67%
    15 Folkestone & Hythe Cons 22.65%
    16 Sittingbourne & Sheppey Cons 22.57%
    17 Eastleigh LD 20.81%
    18 Camborne & Redruth Cons 20.23%
    19 St Austell & Newquay LD 19.83%
    20 Portsmouth South LD 19.66%
    I am sure they could, but that isn't the way to work out whether to buy or sell the seats at 9.5-11.5
    but probably enough evidence to suggest William hills 8/1 on UKIp winning 3-4 seats is whopping value
    I think that is whopping value indeed, still havent got around to backing it!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,903
    Are they planning to do a series like this? The views of other gods will be very interesting. Odin on gay marriage will be a hoot! (Totally in favour obviously as he's Scandinavian)





  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    With the Labour lead back to 1, and therefore likely to fall away when the sub-sample drops off, can I make a strong suggestion to Mike that you stop posting every single poll between now and the GE? Some will be favourable, some won't be. It would be very wise to do a poll thread every few days, preferably even weekly. This I know won't be popular with all, but there's a serious danger that you are getting blown hither and thither by every passing poll. Circumspection based on seeing the trends would enhance, rather than devalue, this site.

    In terms of thread coverage, there must be plenty of other ways to report politics. And there would be nothing wrong occasionally with simply having an Open thread, a little like Nighthawks, in the daytime. Not every discussion has to be led from the front.

    There hasn't been a Tory lead for nearly a week now.
    Myleene impact
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Omnium

    Odin may have had gender dysphoria according to legend.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534

    Charles said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Even tax collectors came to be baptized. “Teacher,” they asked, “what should we do?”

    “Don’t collect any more than you are required to,” he told them.

    St. Matthew was a tax collector, St. Luke a doctor. Jesus was a teacher, while Peter, James, John, etc were all in the agricultural sector.

    Perfect combination of public and private sector.
    In the bible I have, Jesus was a carpenter who became an itinerant lay preacher. Definitely private sector.
    So Jesus must have been a private school teacher only. No qualifications

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034

    With the Labour lead back to 1, and therefore likely to fall away when the sub-sample drops off, can I make a strong suggestion to Mike that you stop posting every single poll between now and the GE? Some will be favourable, some won't be. It would be very wise to do a poll thread every few days, preferably even weekly. This I know won't be popular with all, but there's a serious danger that you are getting blown hither and thither by every passing poll. Circumspection based on seeing the trends would enhance, rather than devalue, this site.

    In terms of thread coverage, there must be plenty of other ways to report politics. And there would be nothing wrong occasionally with simply having an Open thread, a little like Nighthawks, in the daytime. Not every discussion has to be led from the front.

    There hasn't been a Tory lead for nearly a week now.
    There had been a time when there hadn't been one in 18 months!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    weejonnie said:

    I assume this shows that the YouGov population sample is inherently left of centre - and will thus exaggerate Labour popularity,

    Populus and Lord Ashcroft have the biggest leads this week

    You Gov the smallest
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Even tax collectors came to be baptized. “Teacher,” they asked, “what should we do?”

    “Don’t collect any more than you are required to,” he told them.

    St. Matthew was a tax collector, St. Luke a doctor. Jesus was a teacher, while Peter, James, John, etc were all in the agricultural sector.

    Perfect combination of public and private sector.
    In the bible I have, Jesus was a carpenter who became an itinerant lay preacher. Definitely private sector.
    Not the KJV, then. I am shocked!

    Although a carpenter by background, he went on to become a teacher - admittedly a locum, but still effective.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,903
    Smarmeron said:

    @Omnium

    Odin may have had gender dysphoria according to legend.

    Sounds nasty. In the Marvel comics of my youth he didn't seem conflicted.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    bigjohnowls,

    Labour doing better this week is unlikely to be Mylene. More likely, dancing to the Ukip theme on immigration is the reason. Do you approve?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    edited November 2014
    aa

    Without reference to polls your ever more assured postings 'I'm now convinced than ever that The Tories are heading for an 8-10 point majority' would look even more asinyne than they usually do
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Omnium
    Are you sure that wasn't Thor?
  • O/T Word reaches me that Neil Findlay can win more party members than Jim Murphy in the electoral college that decides who will be Scottish Labour leader. (It's split into thirds - members, parliamentarians and affiliates). With Findlay set to do well among unions and with Murphy having a big lead among MPs and MSPs it will likely come down to the members.

    A week ago Findlay's camp believed their man was 6% behind in the college overall but apparently it's much closer. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scottish-labour-leadership-could-former-bricklayer-neil-findlay-be-labours-biggest-headache-yet-9871403.html

    4/1 is still available on Findlay causing a big shock and he's certainly the value pick at this stage: http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-scottish-labour-leader

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737


    I just loaded up a list of US Senators...

    http://show.nojam.com/a65/search.php

    I was looking for a list of UK MPs - with more details than just the name.

    The parliament web site only seems to allow searching on its site (no download). Does anyone know of a list of open data like this?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_MPs_elected_in_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010

    Or buy the Times Guide to the House of Commons...
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Pulpstar said:

    Are we going to get polling on what would Abraham, Mohammed, Buddha and Moses would do ?

    Moses wouldn't vote Labour I know that.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,712
    edited November 2014

    With the Labour lead back to 1, and therefore likely to fall away when the sub-sample drops off, can I make a strong suggestion to Mike that you stop posting every single poll between now and the GE? Some will be favourable, some won't be. It would be very wise to do a poll thread every few days, preferably even weekly. This I know won't be popular with all, but there's a serious danger that you are getting blown hither and thither by every passing poll. Circumspection based on seeing the trends would enhance, rather than devalue, this site.

    In terms of thread coverage, there must be plenty of other ways to report politics. And there would be nothing wrong occasionally with simply having an Open thread, a little like Nighthawks, in the daytime. Not every discussion has to be led from the front.

    There hasn't been a Tory lead for nearly a week now.
    Clearly the Tories are experiencing some downward revision after Rochester and Strood. This further evinces a theory I have held since the Cleggasm: namely that a more sophisticated public uses opinion polls not to indicate intended behaviour but rather as a commentary on the perceived Zeitgeist. In short: all polling is now junk.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PickardJE: Comres/ITV puts Labour ahead by eight points (39-31) in 40 marginal seats, although not a massive sample size.

  • A new poll conducted by ComRes for ITV News reveals that Labour retains its lead over the Conservatives in the forty most marginal seats where the two parties are fighting head-to-head against each other ahead of the General Election next year.

    However, Labour’s lead falls from 11 points in September to eight points now. Its potential vote share has fallen two points to 39%, while the Conservatives are on 31%. At the General Election in 2010, the two main parties were tied on 37% across these seats.

    The Liberal Democrats are now on 7%, while UKIP are in third place on 18% – suggesting Nigel Farage’s party could play a significant role in determining who comes out top in these crucial battlegrounds.

    Con 31% (+1)

    Lab 39% (-2)

    Lib Dem 7% (+1)

    UKIP 18% (+1)
    Others 4% (-3)

    (Figures in brackets show changes from October 2014)

    http://comres.co.uk/poll/1329/itv-news-marginal-constituencies-poll-november-2014.htm
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    With the Labour lead back to 1, and therefore likely to fall away when the sub-sample drops off, can I make a strong suggestion to Mike that you stop posting every single poll between now and the GE? Some will be favourable, some won't be. It would be very wise to do a poll thread every few days, preferably even weekly. This I know won't be popular with all, but there's a serious danger that you are getting blown hither and thither by every passing poll. Circumspection based on seeing the trends would enhance, rather than devalue, this site.

    In terms of thread coverage, there must be plenty of other ways to report politics. And there would be nothing wrong occasionally with simply having an Open thread, a little like Nighthawks, in the daytime. Not every discussion has to be led from the front.

    Some of us have been enjoying the site since 2004 and are quite content with the way OGH chooses his threads .
    Very conservative attitude.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,903
    Smarmeron said:

    @Omnium
    Are you sure that wasn't Thor?

    Odin was old and grumpy and disapproving of Thor and his goldilocks and his toting a hammer around. I'd always assumed it was because he worried about the lad. I will concede though that my concept of gayness at the time was pretty much restricted to Liberal Party leaders, and I had a very hazy idea of what it entailed. I think you can see why Norse gods of any description didn't quite line up with the Liberal leadership in my ten year old mind. Clearly though with the onset of the LibDems and Clegg things have changed. Worthy of the Halls of Valhalla to a man/woman/person of other gender.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016
    I am not religious but I seem to recall Jesus saying something like "render unto Caesar what is Caesars." Surely the nationalisation of trains falls into that category.

    Some people have to much time on their hands.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Moses_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Are we going to get polling on what would Abraham, Mohammed, Buddha and Moses would do ?

    Moses wouldn't vote Labour I know that.
    And we know Abraham was a Tory: prepared to sacrifice little children to get what he wanted.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    CD13 said:

    bigjohnowls,

    Labour doing better this week is unlikely to be Mylene. More likely, dancing to the Ukip theme on immigration is the reason. Do you approve?

    I know it was a joke against those who said it was a disaster for Ed

    Lab isnt really up this week its been the Tory UKIP vote that has increased Lab lead
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034
    RodCrosby said:


    I just loaded up a list of US Senators...

    http://show.nojam.com/a65/search.php

    I was looking for a list of UK MPs - with more details than just the name.

    The parliament web site only seems to allow searching on its site (no download). Does anyone know of a list of open data like this?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_MPs_elected_in_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010

    Or buy the Times Guide to the House of Commons...
    Theyworkforyou, or the public whip will also be other good places to get a list.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    DavidL said:

    I am not religious but I seem to recall Jesus saying something like "render unto Caesar what is Caesars." Surely the nationalisation of trains falls into that category.

    Some people have to much time on their hands.

    I interpret that as acknowledging the claims of the Roman Empire, the predecessor of the EU, of course. In other words, Jesus was not one to seek a rebate.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Omnium
    Have a quick butchers, though if it messes with your childhood memories, I bear no responsibilities.
    http://norse-mythology.org/gods-and-creatures/the-aesir-gods-and-goddesses/odin/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034
    Smarmeron said:

    @Omnium
    Have a quick butchers, though if it messes with your childhood memories, I bear no responsibilities.
    http://norse-mythology.org/gods-and-creatures/the-aesir-gods-and-goddesses/odin/

    Odin, Master of Ecstasy.

    What a title.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,537


    A new poll conducted by ComRes for ITV News reveals that Labour retains its lead over the Conservatives in the forty most marginal seats where the two parties are fighting head-to-head against each other ahead of the General Election next year.

    However, Labour’s lead falls from 11 points in September to eight points now. Its potential vote share has fallen two points to 39%, while the Conservatives are on 31%. At the General Election in 2010, the two main parties were tied on 37% across these seats.

    The Liberal Democrats are now on 7%, while UKIP are in third place on 18% – suggesting Nigel Farage’s party could play a significant role in determining who comes out top in these crucial battlegrounds.

    Con 31% (+1)

    Lab 39% (-2)

    Lib Dem 7% (+1)

    UKIP 18% (+1)
    Others 4% (-3)

    (Figures in brackets show changes from October 2014)

    http://comres.co.uk/poll/1329/itv-news-marginal-constituencies-poll-november-2014.htm

    That's equivalent to a 1% Labour lead, overall.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited November 2014
    Sturgeon sounds (via BBC News 24 live) as if she wants to ratchet up income taxes, and talking up case for living wage in private sector in Scotland. Why not just go the whole hog and set up an incomes policy. Back to the 70s with the SNP's socialist nationalism.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    i wonder if Jesus was a "white cart man?" With judea flags hanging outside the carpenters shop?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Jesus wouldn't get involved in any of these political issues, seeing that he made a point of not getting involved in the politics of his time, when there were much more controversial topics - notably the Roman occupation of Judea - on the table.

    "Render unto Caesar what is Caesar's and Render unto God what is God's."
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Sean_F said:


    A new poll conducted by ComRes for ITV News reveals that Labour retains its lead over the Conservatives in the forty most marginal seats where the two parties are fighting head-to-head against each other ahead of the General Election next year.

    However, Labour’s lead falls from 11 points in September to eight points now. Its potential vote share has fallen two points to 39%, while the Conservatives are on 31%. At the General Election in 2010, the two main parties were tied on 37% across these seats.

    The Liberal Democrats are now on 7%, while UKIP are in third place on 18% – suggesting Nigel Farage’s party could play a significant role in determining who comes out top in these crucial battlegrounds.

    Con 31% (+1)

    Lab 39% (-2)

    Lib Dem 7% (+1)

    UKIP 18% (+1)
    Others 4% (-3)

    (Figures in brackets show changes from October 2014)

    http://comres.co.uk/poll/1329/itv-news-marginal-constituencies-poll-november-2014.htm

    That's equivalent to a 1% Labour lead, overall.

    Arent these the vital constituencies where GE2015 will be decided?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Moses_ said:

    i wonder if Jesus was a "white cart man?" With judea flags hanging outside the carpenters shop?

    Actually come to think of it, Jesus is probably the only person Ed has not yet met on Hampstead Heath.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034
    dr_spyn said:

    Sturgeon sounds (via BBC News 24 live) as if she wants to ratchet up income taxes, and talking up case for living wage in private sector in Scotland. Why not just go the whole hog and set up an incomes policy. Back to the 70s with the SNP's socialist nationalism.

    Fertile grounds for a Tory revival in Scotland? (I live in hope).
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    RobD said:

    RodCrosby said:


    I just loaded up a list of US Senators...

    http://show.nojam.com/a65/search.php

    I was looking for a list of UK MPs - with more details than just the name.

    The parliament web site only seems to allow searching on its site (no download). Does anyone know of a list of open data like this?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_MPs_elected_in_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010

    Or buy the Times Guide to the House of Commons...
    Theyworkforyou, or the public whip will also be other good places to get a list.

    Thanks Rod and Rob.

    I don't think Theyworkforyou is open data (they have restrictions on use).

    I'll have a look at the Wiki list.


  • A new poll conducted by ComRes for ITV News reveals that Labour retains its lead over the Conservatives in the forty most marginal seats where the two parties are fighting head-to-head against each other ahead of the General Election next year.

    However, Labour’s lead falls from 11 points in September to eight points now. Its potential vote share has fallen two points to 39%, while the Conservatives are on 31%. At the General Election in 2010, the two main parties were tied on 37% across these seats.

    The Liberal Democrats are now on 7%, while UKIP are in third place on 18% – suggesting Nigel Farage’s party could play a significant role in determining who comes out top in these crucial battlegrounds.

    Con 31% (+1)

    Lab 39% (-2)

    Lib Dem 7% (+1)

    UKIP 18% (+1)
    Others 4% (-3)

    (Figures in brackets show changes from October 2014)

    http://comres.co.uk/poll/1329/itv-news-marginal-constituencies-poll-november-2014.htm

    For clarity, this is 25 most marginal (Conservative held) and 15 most marginal (Labour held) so that's something to be aware of when drawing conclusions from it.
  • Mr. Manson, cheers for that tip on Findlay.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736


    A new poll conducted by ComRes for ITV News reveals that Labour retains its lead over the Conservatives in the forty most marginal seats where the two parties are fighting head-to-head against each other ahead of the General Election next year.

    However, Labour’s lead falls from 11 points in September to eight points now. Its potential vote share has fallen two points to 39%, while the Conservatives are on 31%. At the General Election in 2010, the two main parties were tied on 37% across these seats.

    The Liberal Democrats are now on 7%, while UKIP are in third place on 18% – suggesting Nigel Farage’s party could play a significant role in determining who comes out top in these crucial battlegrounds.

    Con 31% (+1)

    Lab 39% (-2)

    Lib Dem 7% (+1)

    UKIP 18% (+1)
    Others 4% (-3)

    (Figures in brackets show changes from October 2014)

    http://comres.co.uk/poll/1329/itv-news-marginal-constituencies-poll-november-2014.htm

    For clarity, this is 25 most marginal (Conservative held) and 15 most marginal (Labour held) so that's something to be aware of when drawing conclusions from it.
    Really it would be better concentrating on the 40 con held marginals which will presumably much closer.

    Anyone know what the 25 con held ones show in this?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    As far as this thread is concerned I take the view that :

    Jesus Christ Will Never Be Prime Minister
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2014
    Peter Hitchens had a barney with Benjamin Zephaniah about "what would Jesus do?" regarding the occupation around St Pauls a couple of years ago on QT

    BZ said he would be out there with Jenny Jones etc, PH said he wouldn't get involved
This discussion has been closed.