From the comres constituency poll, the most significant bit is this .........
A 5.5% swing to Labour in Tory held seats.
Only a 1.5% swing to Labour in Labour marginals.
But is that just random variation?
Tory marginals and Lab marginals will have very similar demographics and other characteristics - as their results in 2010 were very similar - only differing by a very small number of percentage points.
So is it really likely the swing will be 4% higher in one than the other?
Seems incredibly unlikely - and history also suggests not - in practice there never are such massive variations.
Anthony Wells has said repeatedly - all the marginals polling we have had shows a picture effectively identical to the national polls.
I'd disagree with that. It may well be that in Labour held seats there is a degree of complacency - Labour won last time, surely they could lose this time? That's a little dangerous but in Tory held seats it probably feels like all to play for.
Well show me an example from any previous GE where there was a 4% swing variation between such seats.
The UK was the fifth largest benificiary of EIB loans (behind Germany, Italy, Spain and France, IIRC) in 2013. And as far as I understand it, there is nothing about the current "plan" (being generous in calling it a plan, tbh) that restricts subsidised projects to Eurozone members, so it is by no means impossible that some of this money does get used for HS2.
However, it's important to remember that all the EIB does is *lend* money for infrastructure projects. It might be slightly more generous in terms of interest rate than Lloyds, but it's still a lender at heart. (I'd also point out the EIB makes a 12% return on deployed equity - rather better than RBS, for example.)
Basically, the Juncker plan is a headline grab to divert attention away from his Luxembourg tax issues. The chances are that the EIB will lend about the same amount in 2015 and 2016 as it did in 2012 and 2013, and that very little EU money will actually be used.
Frankly, a much more sensible thing to have done would have been to have forced the EIB to use its substantial profits (it made €2.5bn last year) to lever up and fund more projects. But that wouldn't have garnered Mr Juncker any headlines.
The fifth largest beneficiary despite being the third largest economy? Again, it just shows how we get screwed out of our fair share.
The EU is a strange game. The only way to win is not to play.
Sometimes your paranoia gets the better of you. Without knowing how many applications for loans there were, and their creditworthiness, you can't make any judgement like that.
@LordAshcroft: Released tomorrow polling in Doncaster North showing UKIP 2nd so if Tories tactically vote for UKIP Miliband loses #votetorygetlabour!
No surprise, we have seen for a long time that UKIP are the second party in the north. But will it result in another Heywood with the Tories splitting the vote?(oh irony).
The UK was the fifth largest benificiary of EIB loans (behind Germany, Italy, Spain and France, IIRC) in 2013. And as far as I understand it, there is nothing about the current "plan" (being generous in calling it a plan, tbh) that restricts subsidised projects to Eurozone members, so it is by no means impossible that some of this money does get used for HS2.
However, it's important to remember that all the EIB does is *lend* money for infrastructure projects. It might be slightly more generous in terms of interest rate than Lloyds, but it's still a lender at heart. (I'd also point out the EIB makes a 12% return on deployed equity - rather better than RBS, for example.)
Basically, the Juncker plan is a headline grab to divert attention away from his Luxembourg tax issues. The chances are that the EIB will lend about the same amount in 2015 and 2016 as it did in 2012 and 2013, and that very little EU money will actually be used.
Frankly, a much more sensible thing to have done would have been to have forced the EIB to use its substantial profits (it made €2.5bn last year) to lever up and fund more projects. But that wouldn't have garnered Mr Juncker any headlines.
The fifth largest beneficiary despite being the third largest economy? Again, it just shows how we get screwed out of our fair share.
The EU is a strange game. The only way to win is not to play.
Sometimes your paranoia gets the better of you. Without knowing how many applications for loans there were, and their creditworthiness, you can't make any judgement like that.
Using that would be a misleading statistic, because people would apply for less loans if they know they're less likely to get it.
Labour need a 4.7% swing to win a majority so the 4% shown by ComRes obviously isn't enough, and that doesn't take into account Labour losing any seats to the SNP. So it looks like no majority for Ed at the moment.
"These seats had Labour and Conservative equal at the last election so an eight point lead here is the equivalent of a four point national swing and a one point Labour lead in national polls…pretty much exactly what the national polls have been showing lately (actually if you look at the crossbreaks of the poll they suggest a swing towards the Conservatives in the Conservative held seats, a swing towards Labour in the Labour held seats, but given the sample size of those two groups and that the poll is only weighted at the level of all forty seats I wouldn’t put too much weight on that)."
"they suggest a swing towards the Conservatives in the Conservative held seats" Has Wells done a mistake? If Labour are ahead by 7% in Tory marginals that is surely not a swing to the Tories in Tory marginals since the last election.
A big drop in oil price again today. Down to $77.50 at the mo.
I'm paying £1.19 litre locally.
Enjoy it while you can. It will probably fall to 40-60$ in a year, cheap oil will last another 10 years before another oil crisis hits.
Trying to forecast the price a year ahead has always been a mugs game.
Production continues to skyrocket in the US adding the entire production of the North Sea in a year per year for 4 years now. As long as the eurozone and Japan continue their relentless economic decline there is no one to absorb that supply.
A big drop in oil price again today. Down to $77.50 at the mo.
I'm paying £1.19 litre locally.
Enjoy it while you can. It will probably fall to 40-60$ in a year, cheap oil will last another 10 years before another oil crisis hits.
Trying to forecast the price a year ahead has always been a mugs game.
Production continues to skyrocket in the US adding the entire production of the North Sea in a year per year for 4 years now. As long as the eurozone and Japan continue their relentless economic decline there is no one to absorb that supply.
The Majors are already cutting investment in marginal fields and some producers will have to curtail production if prices stay low for too long. At some stage this will cause a spike but I think this could be some way off.
Jesus sounds like a classic LD to Labour switcher, so according to our very own OGH the keys to the next election could be in the son of God's hands!
Mind you, as railways were not even invented when he was on earth and he allowed himself to suffer the death penalty to save all mankind the answers to those questions are a bit perplexing
It's fascinating that rudimentary forms of both the railway and the steam engine were invented in ancient Greece. Unfortunately, they failed to combine the two.
The metallurgy of ancient Greece wasn't strong enough for that to have worked.
I think grooved tracks have been found and Hiero of Alexandria gives the design for a steam engine. Bearing in mind that a railway engine doesn't necessarily have to be a locomotive, I think could have managed it.
@LordAshcroft: Released tomorrow polling in Doncaster North showing UKIP 2nd so if Tories tactically vote for UKIP Miliband loses #votetorygetlabour!
Is the orthodoxy still that the Tories suffer worse than Labour from UKIP? I've always questioned that orthodoxy for several reasons and am pleased to see it apparently crumbling.
Comments
It never, ever, happens.
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/nov/26/mirrors-air-conditioning-heat-space
I'm paying £1.19 litre locally.
But will it result in another Heywood with the Tories splitting the vote?(oh irony).
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/de8d5a14-7574-11e4-a1a9-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3KCglfvoa
Nice that they point out too how the Lib Dems supported him on it.
It will probably fall to 40-60$ in a year, cheap oil will last another 10 years before another oil crisis hits.
Would you vote UKIP to defeat Labour?
We know that Labour voters will vote UKIP to defeat the Tories if they can.
Vote Tory, get Ed?
@jameswhartonmp Excellent presentation to the 1922 committee by @LordAshcroft some very interesting polling work, with more to come.
As long as the eurozone and Japan continue their relentless economic decline there is no one to absorb that supply.
twitter.com/RMaxx88/status/536115112881713153
FB Indeed, he would have been a trendy North London vicar
But what if Labour are largest party sans Miliband? Who will be PM? Harman, as Deputy?
If Churchill can ally himself with Stalin to defeat Nazis, then I can vote UKIP here.
Once the war is won, I can go back to planning the defeat of UKIP.
http://comres.co.uk/poll/1329/itv-news-marginal-constituencies-poll-november-2014.htm
@Sun_Politics: Balls: Labour would move civil service jobs out of London: http://t.co/hwLEm5a3ez
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsTonight/status/537684012521644032