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Polling errors – politicalbetting.com

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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,132
    edited May 28
    Andy_JS said:

    Did Ed Davey fall off a boat twice? Because one piece of footage seems to show Tim Farron nearby, and another one doesn't. But maybe that was because of different camera angles.

    A boat - its a paddle board not a boat but then not everyone is nautically minded
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,706
    Andy_JS said:

    Did Ed Davey fall off a boat twice? Because one piece of footage seems to show Tim Farron nearby, and another one doesn't. But maybe that was because of different camera angles.

    No.

    He did it THREE times:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cjkkn6pvgppo
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,688
    Andy_JS said:

    Did Ed Davey fall off a boat twice? Because one piece of footage seems to show Tim Farron nearby, and another one doesn't. But maybe that was because of different camera angles.

    Ed Davey fell into the water three times.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cjkkn6pvgppo
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,165
    DM_Andy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ToryJim said:

    Looks like the Beebs election night broadcast will be anchored by Laura K and Clive Myrie.

    https://x.com/bbclaurak/status/1795417741454705018?s=61

    In that case I will be watching ITV or Sky, unless the Conservatives are massacred, in which case I will want to see Kuenssberg’s face.
    Do you think she's a Conservative supporter?
    I sometimes wonder at people. Is there any evidence that Kuensberg is a Tory supporter? And no, asking questions about Starmer and Labour does not make a political reporter a Tory.
    There was this infamous tweet three days before the 2019 General Election?

    “So Matt Hancock was despatched to Leeds General (sorry not just Leeds Hospital) to try to sort out mess, hearing Labour activists scrambled to go and protest, and it turned nasty when they arrived - one of them punched Hancock’s adviser.”
    Doesn't prove she's a Tory but she has form for just parroting lines fed to her by Tory staffers. cf the Susan Hall might win ramp based on over-excited Tory twitters and the Bernard Castle defence as written by Dominic Cummings himself.
    She made her name in 2010 reporting on the coalition discussions and had an inside track in those. She’s never really shaken that off. She destroyed Truss in that famous interview. However, while I don’t know she’s a Tory, some of her output (most recently that credulous crap about Khan v Hall) doesn’t do her any favours at all.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 29,680
    edited May 28
    The BBC used to spend as much as 18 months preparing their special election night studio. But they probably don't need as long these days because so much is done virtually. Building a special physical set isn't really necessary.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,875
    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,986
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Interesting one in @Foxy country.

    English Heritage are trying to prevent the Isle of White Coastal Path going along the coast near Osborne House, and want it diverted along several miles of A road instead.

    Excuses around "security", but Osborne House is half a mile from the sea, and they give free rein to anyone who has paid to rent one of their cottages.

    At the moment it requires aiui walking several miles down an A-road.

    Given that English Heritage and Historic England are essentially Government bodies, I'd say it's time to complete the gaps left in the Countryside & Rights of Way Act 2000 from the last time Labour were in.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvCzfC0zF2I
    https://campaignerkate.wordpress.com/2024/05/27/unfit-for-a-king/

    Yes, I was talking to one of Mrs Foxy's cousins who is a campaigner for The Ramblers on the Island.

    It's security of income that English Heritage (who run Osborne House) is most bothered about. They don't want people walking in for free to the grounds. A fence along the footpath would do the trick.
    Or a ha-ha (sunken wall for the uninformed) to preserve the view.

    Not difficult.

    https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/discover/history/gardens-landscapes/what-is-a-ha-ha
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,043
    MattW said:

    DM_Andy said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Two more Labour retirements in very safe London seats:

    Virendra Sharma in Ealing Southall (winner of the by-election in 2007)
    https://x.com/VirendraSharma/status/1795139143908938074

    John Cryer in Leyton & Wanstead (part of the 1997 intake, recent PLP chair, married to Ellie Reeves)
    https://x.com/JohnCryerMP/status/1795166070745014331

    As it happens, Labour will need to appoint a whole bunch of peers to make up for the whole bunch of peers appointed by the Conservatives.
    Or maybe just maybe turn the upper chamber into something mostly/fully democratically elected. One of the arguments for throwing out most of the hereditary peers was to reduce the bloated membership of the House of Lords, it was around 1,200 and the reform reduced that down to about 550, now it's closing in on 800 and ever growing.
    The House of Lords is smaller than it was in 2018. 792 then to 783 now.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45981790

    So "ever-growing" is not correct.

    I do not know what it peaked at, however. I suspect it has been basically flat in numbers for quite a long time.
    There's still the Dissolution Honours and possibly Sunak's Resignation Honours to come in.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,688

    I genuinely don’t think I can watch the BBC coverage now. I don’t mind Myrie, but Kuenssberg? No, no, no. It’s not the right forum for her.

    Fiona Bruce would have been better, or Victoria Derbyshire.

    Laura K is unbearable, and hopeless with it.

    ITV is the place to be: Ed Balls and Geo Osborne.
    Channel 4 has Rory the Tory & A Campbell off The Rest is Politics. As you say, ITV has Balls & Osborne from their Political Currency podcast.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,706
    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Funny, that's how many of us felt about his time in charge of Who.

    And then we got Chris Chibnall...
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,990
    Nigelb said:
    "“It’s also a form of commerce,” he continued, “and it makes money. But it’s an art. And no one should be telling me as an artist that I have to give in to the latest, most current idea of what morality is.”"

    They should ask Mister Dreyfuss if his current idea of morality includes banning black women from attending the Oscars:

    "Hattie McDaniel was truly an inspiration and trailblazer for many stars. In 1940, while being the only Black woman in attendance at the Oscars, she became the first African American to win an Academy Award. She was also segregated and had to sit in the back by herself, not among her Gone with the Wind co-stars. She won for her portrayal of Mammy in the 1939 film Gone with the Wind."

    https://www.remindmagazine.com/article/11527/hattie-mcdaniel-first-african-american-oscar-winner-gone-with-the-wind/

    "The hotel had a strict no-Blacks policy, but allowed McDaniel in as a favor."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hattie_McDaniel

    Many 'starts' at the time agreed with the stance of segregating her. It has only been seen as a scandal since.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,986
    DM_Andy said:

    MattW said:

    DM_Andy said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Two more Labour retirements in very safe London seats:

    Virendra Sharma in Ealing Southall (winner of the by-election in 2007)
    https://x.com/VirendraSharma/status/1795139143908938074

    John Cryer in Leyton & Wanstead (part of the 1997 intake, recent PLP chair, married to Ellie Reeves)
    https://x.com/JohnCryerMP/status/1795166070745014331

    As it happens, Labour will need to appoint a whole bunch of peers to make up for the whole bunch of peers appointed by the Conservatives.
    Or maybe just maybe turn the upper chamber into something mostly/fully democratically elected. One of the arguments for throwing out most of the hereditary peers was to reduce the bloated membership of the House of Lords, it was around 1,200 and the reform reduced that down to about 550, now it's closing in on 800 and ever growing.
    The House of Lords is smaller than it was in 2018. 792 then to 783 now.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45981790

    So "ever-growing" is not correct.

    I do not know what it peaked at, however. I suspect it has been basically flat in numbers for quite a long time.
    There's still the Dissolution Honours and possibly Sunak's Resignation Honours to come in.
    "No Dissolution Honours as we are reforming the Lords" in the Labour Manifesto. :wink:

    Vote winner?
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,102

    Cicero said:

    Glad to see DRoss launch the Scottish Tories campaign, saying that people need to vote Tory to get rid of the “stale and rotten” government in Holyrood.

    DRoss is both an MP and MSP. Which means he can speak from personal experience of the “stale and rotten” government run by his party in Westminster.

    Tory. SNP. Same thing.

    Yes, but he's not Ed Davey. the LDs really should have changed their leader.
    There isn't a single Lib Dem leader you ever supported, I guess.
    Ed Davey is an expert in his field (energy) way more than any Tory, and is also a very decent human being, which is also rather rare on Tory circles.
    You know why the Tories are gunning for him?

    Because he said sorry. That he got it wrong. And that having tried to make amends too late that more should have been done.

    The Tories hate this because since 2015 every PO minister has been Tory. And not a single one of them has said a thing. Or done anything.
    It's one of the most self-serving apologies of all time: "I'm sorry I did not see through the Post Office’s lies."

    How can he have any credibility in politics when his pitch is that he's simply too feeble and trusting to do the job?

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/feb/01/ed-davey-apologises-for-his-role-in-post-office-horizon-scandal
    Hmmm let me see. Within the space of days he went from being an MP in the 3rd party to a government minister with direct responsibility for the Post Office. A few days into his unexpected job there is a letter needing a response. Like literally anyone else in a new role he asked for information.

    Of all the ministers his is the most credible defence. The rest knew they were the party of government before getting the job. And had colleagues who had been ministers to ask for background. Not Davey.
    Davey is due to appear before the Inquiry, but not until after the election.

    My guess is that he will say he was lied. It is quite possible that's the truth.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,888
    HYUFD said:

    Jamarion said:

    Jamarion said:

    So a "Ming vase strategy" means trying to prevent the opponent from polarising? I guess that might work if the opponent were the AfD or Reform UK or some other outfit that was unensconced in positions of influence in a country. But this is the Tory party.

    It's working so far. Short of declaring war, what capacity do the Tories have to polarise the electorate now?
    They've already proposed reintroducing national service and their manifesto isn't even out yet. They're more than a political party and they have respect in the City, clubs, BBC, at major newspapers, in the armed forces, top schools, etc. - almost wherever there is high privilege. But I'm not sure that's what you meant. Policywise I could imagine them promising a referendum on bringing back the death penalty, maybe some even nastier humiliation of immigrants that comes from left field.
    Not really, most of the civil service, BBC, universities, CBI, even public school teachers are not Brexiteer Conservatives
    To be picky, most of everybody is very much not Brexiteer Conservatives
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,554
    Andy_JS said:

    Did Ed Davey fall off a boat twice? Because one piece of footage seems to show Tim Farron nearby, and another one doesn't. But maybe that was because of different camera angles.

    Was Tim Farron walking on the water as Ed Davey fell into it?
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    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,621
    Andy_JS said:

    I think I'd prefer a hung parliament, because it's better not to have power concentrated in the hands of a few people from one party.

    Agreed. Did you feel the same way in 2019 though?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 29,680
    "British number one Cameron Norrie said he is "devastated" after he was knocked out in the first round of the French Open by Russian Pavel Kotov.

    World number 57 Kotov beat Norrie in five sets 4-6 6-3 3-6 7-6 (7-5) 6-2 to record just his second victory in a Grand Slam. It is the first time Norrie has lost in the opening round of a major since the 2022 Australian Open."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/live/cn335e079xxt
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,043

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    He said Boris won an election which he did.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,132
    MattW said:

    DM_Andy said:

    MattW said:

    DM_Andy said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Two more Labour retirements in very safe London seats:

    Virendra Sharma in Ealing Southall (winner of the by-election in 2007)
    https://x.com/VirendraSharma/status/1795139143908938074

    John Cryer in Leyton & Wanstead (part of the 1997 intake, recent PLP chair, married to Ellie Reeves)
    https://x.com/JohnCryerMP/status/1795166070745014331

    As it happens, Labour will need to appoint a whole bunch of peers to make up for the whole bunch of peers appointed by the Conservatives.
    Or maybe just maybe turn the upper chamber into something mostly/fully democratically elected. One of the arguments for throwing out most of the hereditary peers was to reduce the bloated membership of the House of Lords, it was around 1,200 and the reform reduced that down to about 550, now it's closing in on 800 and ever growing.
    The House of Lords is smaller than it was in 2018. 792 then to 783 now.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45981790

    So "ever-growing" is not correct.

    I do not know what it peaked at, however. I suspect it has been basically flat in numbers for quite a long time.
    There's still the Dissolution Honours and possibly Sunak's Resignation Honours to come in.
    "No Dissolution Honours as we are reforming the Lords" in the Labour Manifesto. :wink:

    Vote winner?
    I’m not sure Lords reform or honours moves many votes. I also think there are very good reasons for wanting to reward certain players in the political system particularly those in the background.
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    twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,220
    edited May 28
    DM_Andy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    He said Boris won an election which he did.
    He also says "we have a PM who not only didn't win an election". It just winds me up. There's no law saying you have to have a GE if you change leader, so Sunak inheriting it doesn't matter so why bring it up?
    Same as Brown. And Dr Who is a load of shite.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,029

    DM_Andy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ToryJim said:

    Looks like the Beebs election night broadcast will be anchored by Laura K and Clive Myrie.

    https://x.com/bbclaurak/status/1795417741454705018?s=61

    In that case I will be watching ITV or Sky, unless the Conservatives are massacred, in which case I will want to see Kuenssberg’s face.
    Do you think she's a Conservative supporter?
    I sometimes wonder at people. Is there any evidence that Kuensberg is a Tory supporter? And no, asking questions about Starmer and Labour does not make a political reporter a Tory.
    There was this infamous tweet three days before the 2019 General Election?

    “So Matt Hancock was despatched to Leeds General (sorry not just Leeds Hospital) to try to sort out mess, hearing Labour activists scrambled to go and protest, and it turned nasty when they arrived - one of them punched Hancock’s adviser.”
    Doesn't prove she's a Tory but she has form for just parroting lines fed to her by Tory staffers. cf the Susan Hall might win ramp based on over-excited Tory twitters and the Bernard Castle defence as written by Dominic Cummings himself.
    So no evidence then? I'm afraid all too many journo's are now conduits from Twitter etc - this looks no different to that.

    I think its the old billy balance issue again that the BBC suffers from. If you are of the left, you think the BBC is biased in favour of the right. If you are of the right, you think its a den of socialists. Neither is correct. It seems that some labour supporters are upset that Starmer and labour have had questions asked. The horror. How very dare they. Etc.

    Now on a sunday morning I much prefer Trevor McDonald on Sky, but he's not available for the BBC so they employ their own staff...
    Hard to know what would count as evidence.

    She's been criticised by BBC trust for misleading reporting on Corbyn. She also falsely claimed a Labour activist punched a Tory Councillor. She claimed Cummings lockdown trip wasn't illegal.

    I don't know if you could say the same about any other BBC journalist - but maybe there are others who have been similarly criticised by the left?
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,621

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    Doctor Who is a mix of amazing, world-beating television... and a load of shite.

    And his point is subtler than you think. It's kinda weird Sunak became PM. At the time of the election, who but a few nerds had heard of him? He was Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Obscure to the general public. Brown was known, so was Truss. Sunak though? So there's an objective difference.

    That said, I don't agree with Moffat. There's nothing wrong in the fact that Sunak became PM and Moffat's idea of how mandates work doesn't work for me.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,051

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    Dr Who went from being a decent enough trashy children's TV show to being somehow cultlike amongst a section of the public (ie idiots).

    Analagous reactions have been observed wrt 6.30pm BBC "comedy" and associated live audiences, and Harry Potter although this latter should be praised to the rafters for introducing children to the joys of reading. But adult books they are not.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,495

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    He doesn't say Brown won an election. Apart from that, great comment.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,494
    Only an hour to wait until National Tea Time.

    Earl Grey, with milk and two sugars for me.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,502

    Only an hour to wait until National Tea Time.

    Earl Grey, with milk and two sugars for me.

    Is this a new initiative from Rishi?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,706
    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    Doctor Who is a mix of amazing, world-beating television... and a load of shite.

    And his point is subtler than you think. It's kinda weird Sunak became PM. At the time of the election, who but a few nerds had heard of him? He was Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Obscure to the general public. Brown was known, so was Truss. Sunak though? So there's an objective difference.

    That said, I don't agree with Moffat. There's nothing wrong in the fact that Sunak became PM and Moffat's idea of how mandates work doesn't work for me.
    Major was Chief Secretary to the Treasury from 1987 to 1989. Less than eighteen months later he was PM.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,985
    Chris said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Did Ed Davey fall off a boat twice? Because one piece of footage seems to show Tim Farron nearby, and another one doesn't. But maybe that was because of different camera angles.

    Was Tim Farron walking on the water as Ed Davey fell into it?
    He was preaching the parable of the Ed and Fishes.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,116

    DM_Andy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    He said Boris won an election which he did.
    He also says "we have a PM who not only didn't win an election".
    Same as Brown. And Dr Who is a load of shite.
    The Tories have taken the p*ss when it comes to leadership and direction changes this parliament though. I get someone stepping in and taking the work of the government forward if there is a PM vacancy, but both Truss and Sunak essentially launched entirely different agendas from what came before them, without seeking personal mandates to do so. Brown perhaps changed emphasis from Blair a little, but he still ran a New Labour government whose tone was very similar - and I wasn’t a fan of Brown or Labour at that point.
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    eekeek Posts: 26,310

    DM_Andy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    He said Boris won an election which he did.
    He also says "we have a PM who not only didn't win an election".
    Same as Brown. And Dr Who is a load of shite.
    It's a misunderstanding of our electoral system - Rishi has won multiple elections in Richmondshire and there is no such thing as an election for PM, they are appointed based on the party whose candidates won most (local seats).

    Even the fact he didn't win the party vote makes little sense - Rishi won the vote of the Tory MPs only to lose it to in the membership vote...
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    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    He doesn't say Brown won an election. Apart from that, great comment.
    He says we have a PM who hasn't won a GE.
    Same as Brown.
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    eekeek Posts: 26,310

    Only an hour to wait until National Tea Time.

    Earl Grey, with milk and two sugars for me.

    Sorry milk?

    Let alone sugar....

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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,985
    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Interesting one in @Foxy country.

    English Heritage are trying to prevent the Isle of White Coastal Path going along the coast near Osborne House, and want it diverted along several miles of A road instead.

    Excuses around "security", but Osborne House is half a mile from the sea, and they give free rein to anyone who has paid to rent one of their cottages.

    At the moment it requires aiui walking several miles down an A-road.

    Given that English Heritage and Historic England are essentially Government bodies, I'd say it's time to complete the gaps left in the Countryside & Rights of Way Act 2000 from the last time Labour were in.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvCzfC0zF2I
    https://campaignerkate.wordpress.com/2024/05/27/unfit-for-a-king/

    Yes, I was talking to one of Mrs Foxy's cousins who is a campaigner for The Ramblers on the Island.

    It's security of income that English Heritage (who run Osborne House) is most bothered about. They don't want people walking in for free to the grounds. A fence along the footpath would do the trick.
    Or a ha-ha (sunken wall for the uninformed) to preserve the view.

    Not difficult.

    https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/discover/history/gardens-landscapes/what-is-a-ha-ha
    Or, for extra security, a ho-ho (Pratchett: like a ha-ha, but deeper)
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,051
    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    Doctor Who is a mix of amazing, world-beating television... and a load of shite.

    And his point is subtler than you think. It's kinda weird Sunak became PM. At the time of the election, who but a few nerds had heard of him? He was Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Obscure to the general public. Brown was known, so was Truss. Sunak though? So there's an objective difference.

    That said, I don't agree with Moffat. There's nothing wrong in the fact that Sunak became PM and Moffat's idea of how mandates work doesn't work for me.
    It's sour grapes. Our British political system has many failings, illogicalities, and idiosyncrasies but it is all set out in precedent so Rishi becoming PM is a perfectly good example of our democracy working as set out in the rules.

    If Moffat wants to change the rules by all means go for it. Campaign to have some different type of process whereby, say, there must be a GE if a serving PM steps down or resigns, or there must be some other process and that's all good but don't whine and moan when our democracy does what it's supposed to do.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,607
    edited May 28
    Oooh, there's a new chart in the Wiki opinion polls page:

    image

    "Aggregation and distribution of polls from January 2024 to the calling of the election, with a comparison to the 2019 general election result"
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,880
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    Dr Who went from being a decent enough trashy children's TV show to being somehow cultlike amongst a section of the public (ie idiots).

    Analagous reactions have been observed wrt 6.30pm BBC "comedy" and associated live audiences, and Harry Potter although this latter should be praised to the rafters for introducing children to the joys of reading. But adult books they are not.
    I would say that Dr Who always had messages for an adult audience in it. When not preachy, in an in-your-face style, it was interesting.

    The bit where the characters became legends in their own universe and the writers became legends in their own minds is where the whole thing fell over.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,461
    eek said:

    Only an hour to wait until National Tea Time.

    Earl Grey, with milk and two sugars for me.

    Sorry milk?

    Let alone sugar....

    Earl Grey is garbage.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,495

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    He doesn't say Brown won an election. Apart from that, great comment.
    He says we have a PM who hasn't won a GE.
    Same as Brown.
    He says 'things can happen' and uses Blair and Brown as a qualifying example, but argues that Sunak is an extreme case because he didn't win a leadership election (he lost the only full leadership election) OR a GE. You may disagree with his view, and you'd be correct in the constitutional sense, but I feel that many would agree with his point that the elastic of the constitution is being stretched quite far in Sunak's case. All of which would have been forgiven if he turned out to be great at being PM, but he didn't.
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    eekeek Posts: 26,310
    TOPPING said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    Doctor Who is a mix of amazing, world-beating television... and a load of shite.

    And his point is subtler than you think. It's kinda weird Sunak became PM. At the time of the election, who but a few nerds had heard of him? He was Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Obscure to the general public. Brown was known, so was Truss. Sunak though? So there's an objective difference.

    That said, I don't agree with Moffat. There's nothing wrong in the fact that Sunak became PM and Moffat's idea of how mandates work doesn't work for me.
    It's sour grapes. Our British political system has many failings, illogicalities, and idiosyncrasies but it is all set out in precedent so Rishi becoming PM is a perfectly good example of our democracy working as set out in the rules.

    If Moffat wants to change the rules by all means go for it. Campaign to have some different type of process whereby, say, there must be a GE if a serving PM steps down or resigns, or there must be some other process and that's all good but don't whine and moan when our democracy does what it's supposed to do.
    As I said below the misnomer was Truss - who only got to be PM by promising sweeties to a very biased electorate of Tory members...

    That is a problem that needs to be solved. a party can change it's leader but the policies implemented should continue to reflect what was in the party manifesto when the previous leader was elected and not change massively..
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    twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,220
    edited May 28
    TOPPING said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    Doctor Who is a mix of amazing, world-beating television... and a load of shite.

    And his point is subtler than you think. It's kinda weird Sunak became PM. At the time of the election, who but a few nerds had heard of him? He was Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Obscure to the general public. Brown was known, so was Truss. Sunak though? So there's an objective difference.

    That said, I don't agree with Moffat. There's nothing wrong in the fact that Sunak became PM and Moffat's idea of how mandates work doesn't work for me.
    It's sour grapes. Our British political system has many failings, illogicalities, and idiosyncrasies but it is all set out in precedent so Rishi becoming PM is a perfectly good example of our democracy working as set out in the rules.

    If Moffat wants to change the rules by all means go for it. Campaign to have some different type of process whereby, say, there must be a GE if a serving PM steps down or resigns, or there must be some other process and that's all good but don't whine and moan when our democracy does what it's supposed to do.
    It just winds me up when people moan about changing PM mid stream and that includes parties calling for a GE when it does happen. As you say, if it upsets them so much, campaign for it, put it in a manifesto.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,665
    Andy_JS said:

    The BBC used to spend as much as 18 months preparing their special election night studio. But they probably don't need as long these days because so much is done virtually. Building a special physical set isn't really necessary.

    They could improve it infinitely simply by exorcising it of Laura K.
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    eekeek Posts: 26,310

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    He doesn't say Brown won an election. Apart from that, great comment.
    He says we have a PM who hasn't won a GE.
    Same as Brown.
    Rishi has won multiple general elections - we elect our MP to represent us, the leader is a separate issue that may (or may) not impact the candidate the person votes for - which is why personal votes actually matter.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,706

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    He doesn't say Brown won an election. Apart from that, great comment.
    He says we have a PM who hasn't won a GE.
    Same as Brown.
    He says 'things can happen' and uses Blair and Brown as a qualifying example, but argues that Sunak is an extreme case because he didn't win a leadership election (he lost the only full leadership election) OR a GE. You may disagree with his view, and you'd be correct in the constitutional sense, but I feel that many would agree with his point that the elastic of the constitution is being stretched quite far in Sunak's case. All of which would have been forgiven if he turned out to be great at being PM, but he didn't.
    Thatcher was very displeased in 1990 that Major got fewer votes than her but still won a leadership election she was held to have lost.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,494
    Andy_JS said:

    I think I'd prefer a hung parliament, because it's better not to have power concentrated in the hands of a few people from one party.

    If the LibDems were to block Labour's New Towns nonsense, then a hung parliament would have at least one benefit.
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    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    He doesn't say Brown won an election. Apart from that, great comment.
    He says we have a PM who hasn't won a GE.
    Same as Brown.
    He says 'things can happen' and uses Blair and Brown as a qualifying example, but argues that Sunak is an extreme case because he didn't win a leadership election (he lost the only full leadership election) OR a GE. You may disagree with his view, and you'd be correct in the constitutional sense, but I feel that many would agree with his point that the elastic of the constitution is being stretched quite far in Sunak's case. All of which would have been forgiven if he turned out to be great at being PM, but he didn't.
    I agree the Tories have pushed it way to far, but they played by the current rules.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 4,941
    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    Doctor Who is a mix of amazing, world-beating television... and a load of shite.

    And his point is subtler than you think. It's kinda weird Sunak became PM. At the time of the election, who but a few nerds had heard of him? He was Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Obscure to the general public. Brown was known, so was Truss. Sunak though? So there's an objective difference.

    That said, I don't agree with Moffat. There's nothing wrong in the fact that Sunak became PM and Moffat's idea of how mandates work doesn't work for me.
    I personally don’t know what to think about politics until I’ve read the views of actors and writers - as professions they are perfectly balanced politically and are the engine room of the country.

    Now that Mr Moffat has explained how children have stolen Batman’s clothes I will vote for whatever it is he is espousing.
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,043
    eek said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    He said Boris won an election which he did.
    He also says "we have a PM who not only didn't win an election".
    Same as Brown. And Dr Who is a load of shite.
    It's a misunderstanding of our electoral system - Rishi has won multiple elections in Richmondshire and there is no such thing as an election for PM, they are appointed based on the party whose candidates won most (local seats).

    Even the fact he didn't win the party vote makes little sense - Rishi won the vote of the Tory MPs only to lose it to in the membership vote...
    That argument sounds bizarre to me. The rules of the Tory Leadership is that the MPs pick the top two and then the members pick between them, you can't just ignore the rules and say that Sunak didn't lose because he come first in the first part of the contest. Who's to say that between Truss and Sunak the Tory MPs wouldn't have gone for Truss anyway?

  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,494

    Only an hour to wait until National Tea Time.

    Earl Grey, with milk and two sugars for me.

    Is this a new initiative from Rishi?
    Announced* at the weekend - did you miss it?


    *Announced as part of a piss take, but you never know with this lot.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,540

    NEW THREAD

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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,986
    ToryJim said:

    MattW said:

    DM_Andy said:

    MattW said:

    DM_Andy said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Two more Labour retirements in very safe London seats:

    Virendra Sharma in Ealing Southall (winner of the by-election in 2007)
    https://x.com/VirendraSharma/status/1795139143908938074

    John Cryer in Leyton & Wanstead (part of the 1997 intake, recent PLP chair, married to Ellie Reeves)
    https://x.com/JohnCryerMP/status/1795166070745014331

    As it happens, Labour will need to appoint a whole bunch of peers to make up for the whole bunch of peers appointed by the Conservatives.
    Or maybe just maybe turn the upper chamber into something mostly/fully democratically elected. One of the arguments for throwing out most of the hereditary peers was to reduce the bloated membership of the House of Lords, it was around 1,200 and the reform reduced that down to about 550, now it's closing in on 800 and ever growing.
    The House of Lords is smaller than it was in 2018. 792 then to 783 now.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45981790

    So "ever-growing" is not correct.

    I do not know what it peaked at, however. I suspect it has been basically flat in numbers for quite a long time.
    There's still the Dissolution Honours and possibly Sunak's Resignation Honours to come in.
    "No Dissolution Honours as we are reforming the Lords" in the Labour Manifesto. :wink:

    Vote winner?
    I’m not sure Lords reform or honours moves many votes. I also think there are very good reasons for wanting to reward certain players in the political system particularly those in the background.
    OK.

    I might allow Honours, but no Dissolute Lords.

    If it is a reward, an MBE or other gong fits better.

    Appointments to the Lords should be more about what they can contribute in the future, albeit that may be informed by the past.
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    TazTaz Posts: 12,338
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    Dr Who went from being a decent enough trashy children's TV show to being somehow cultlike amongst a section of the public (ie idiots).

    Analagous reactions have been observed wrt 6.30pm BBC "comedy" and associated live audiences, and Harry Potter although this latter should be praised to the rafters for introducing children to the joys of reading. But adult books they are not.
    Dr Who is always better under Labour.

    Whovians, vote labour for better Dr Who

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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,494
    eek said:

    Only an hour to wait until National Tea Time.

    Earl Grey, with milk and two sugars for me.

    Sorry milk?

    Let alone sugar....

    I also have milk in green tea. But no sugar.
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    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    Cicero said:

    Glad to see DRoss launch the Scottish Tories campaign, saying that people need to vote Tory to get rid of the “stale and rotten” government in Holyrood.

    DRoss is both an MP and MSP. Which means he can speak from personal experience of the “stale and rotten” government run by his party in Westminster.

    Tory. SNP. Same thing.

    Yes, but he's not Ed Davey. the LDs really should have changed their leader.
    There isn't a single Lib Dem leader you ever supported, I guess.
    Ed Davey is an expert in his field (energy) way more than any Tory, and is also a very decent human being, which is also rather rare on Tory circles.
    You know why the Tories are gunning for him?

    Because he said sorry. That he got it wrong. And that having tried to make amends too late that more should have been done.

    The Tories hate this because since 2015 every PO minister has been Tory. And not a single one of them has said a thing. Or done anything.
    It's one of the most self-serving apologies of all time: "I'm sorry I did not see through the Post Office’s lies."

    How can he have any credibility in politics when his pitch is that he's simply too feeble and trusting to do the job?

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/feb/01/ed-davey-apologises-for-his-role-in-post-office-horizon-scandal
    Hmmm let me see. Within the space of days he went from being an MP in the 3rd party to a government minister with direct responsibility for the Post Office. A few days into his unexpected job there is a letter needing a response. Like literally anyone else in a new role he asked for information.

    Of all the ministers his is the most credible defence. The rest knew they were the party of government before getting the job. And had colleagues who had been ministers to ask for background. Not Davey.
    Davey is due to appear before the Inquiry, but not until after the election.

    My guess is that he will say he was lied. It is quite possible that's the truth.
    I am certain it is the truth. But the person lying was presumably representing an organisation being accused of serious wrongdoing and was telling lies which tended to rebut that charge. Anyone not born yesterday is expected to understand that they would say that, wouldn't they? And not taken it at face value
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,611
    ...
    eek said:

    https://www.politics.co.uk/politicslunch/2024/05/28/rishi-sunak-risks-making-this-the-reform-uk-election/

    Farage has said as the Tories can't win you may as well vote Reform to tell the Tory party the direction they need to go in.

    That attack point that won't have much impact early on but will be a killer as the election draws to the close if Rishi hasn't significantly reduced the polling gap...

    eek said:

    https://www.politics.co.uk/politicslunch/2024/05/28/rishi-sunak-risks-making-this-the-reform-uk-election/

    Farage has said as the Tories can't win you may as well vote Reform to tell the Tory party the direction they need to go in.

    That attack point that won't have much impact early on but will be a killer as the election draws to the close if Rishi hasn't significantly reduced the polling gap...

    Farage? Is their a more unreliable election caller?

    I went to bed on EURef night satisfied that Remain had won. Farage conceded Leave had lost by a whisker and he would be calling for a second referendum. When I woke up the silly barsteward had got it wrong and Leave won.

    So on Farage's track record, expect a Conservative landslide.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,621
    edited May 28

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    He doesn't say Brown won an election. Apart from that, great comment.
    He says we have a PM who hasn't won a GE.
    Same as Brown.
    He says 'things can happen' and uses Blair and Brown as a qualifying example, but argues that Sunak is an extreme case because he didn't win a leadership election (he lost the only full leadership election) OR a GE. You may disagree with his view, and you'd be correct in the constitutional sense, but I feel that many would agree with his point that the elastic of the constitution is being stretched quite far in Sunak's case. All of which would have been forgiven if he turned out to be great at being PM, but he didn't.
    I agree the Tories have pushed it way to far, but they played by the current rules.
    They've pushed it not one little iota. Everything that's happened has been constitutionally valid, as sound as anything.

    In fact, it's wonderful thing that it's happened. Giving a ruling party the leeway to off a failing leader, or even two, is a useful safeguard.
    Politically it looks bad for the Tories, because it's exposed their rifts and the madness of a large section of their MPs and members in terms of their inability to select a stable leader. But what looks bad for the Tories and what's constitutionally unsound are very different. Sunak becoming PM is (constitutionally) fantastic news.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,529

    I genuinely don’t think I can watch the BBC coverage now. I don’t mind Myrie, but Kuenssberg? No, no, no. It’s not the right forum for her.

    Fiona Bruce would have been better, or Victoria Derbyshire.

    BBC radio coverage for me this year, with a glance or two at how Times Radio/LBC is getting on too (if still awake). Age creeping on, and pictures better, and no cowboys illustrating swing by doing something from a western or drunks on the Thames. can we hope that Jim Naughtie will be in the mix?
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,655
    DM_Andy said:

    MattW said:

    DM_Andy said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Two more Labour retirements in very safe London seats:

    Virendra Sharma in Ealing Southall (winner of the by-election in 2007)
    https://x.com/VirendraSharma/status/1795139143908938074

    John Cryer in Leyton & Wanstead (part of the 1997 intake, recent PLP chair, married to Ellie Reeves)
    https://x.com/JohnCryerMP/status/1795166070745014331

    As it happens, Labour will need to appoint a whole bunch of peers to make up for the whole bunch of peers appointed by the Conservatives.
    Or maybe just maybe turn the upper chamber into something mostly/fully democratically elected. One of the arguments for throwing out most of the hereditary peers was to reduce the bloated membership of the House of Lords, it was around 1,200 and the reform reduced that down to about 550, now it's closing in on 800 and ever growing.
    The House of Lords is smaller than it was in 2018. 792 then to 783 now.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45981790

    So "ever-growing" is not correct.

    I do not know what it peaked at, however. I suspect it has been basically flat in numbers for quite a long time.
    There's still the Dissolution Honours and possibly Sunak's Resignation Honours to come in.
    Yes and splitting hairs about 11 less troughers at one point in time is pretty pathetic excuse. Still almost 800 too many.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,013
    carnforth said:

    Nigelb said:

    The DuraAce of menswear forums...

    when i was on a menswear forum, a n00b claimed his shoes were handwelted, so an older forum member bought a pair of the shoes for $400, ripped them apart, and proved they were not handwelted, thus triggering a series of events that brought down a shoe factory in italy..
    https://x.com/dieworkwear/status/1795305742263828901

    I spent too long on Styleforum (the one concerned) in my early twenties. Learned some good stuff, but man were there some weirdos.
    Whereas now, you're on here... :)Totally different... :)
This discussion has been closed.