It has been an inauspicious start to the campaign for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Which suggests the next iteration of the Tory party might build from some of the 'new right': younger, harder edged, less globalist, very anti-woke. Proud Boys/Yaxley-Lennon might provide a model.Cleitophon said:
Same could be said of the average tory and reform member.. they are old.... the whole right has no demographic future.... also it is spent as a political movement. All its energies gone. The age of the millenial is upon us. They will dominate for the next 30 years.TheValiant said:
Corbyn is now 75 years old.AlsoLei said:Islington North Update
In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.
No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.
I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.
My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.
I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....
Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
Alternatively they return to centrist Dad territory to tempt back those who are currently Labour. I've been surprised by the number of people I generally see eye-to-eye with on here (eg @numbertwelve, @Stuartinromford and others) describe themselves as centre right and/or more naturally Tory than Labour.0 -
Jumping between the main Teams meeting chat and the side banter with a colleague is a potential source of disaster. So far, so good, but I just know that I'll drop a bollock one day.Ghedebrav said:
There but for the grace of God; the closest I’ve got is posting vaguely banterish between-friends stuff in more professional channels (e.g. on Teams/Whatsapp) but tbh the easiest thing there is just immediately front out with a ‘whoops, that wasn’t for here!’.rkrkrk said:Ex colleague of mine told me as a junior consultant he once sent sensitive details of a merger to entire office by accident - everyone had to sign some legal docs in a rush because of him.
Anyone else got horror stories they care to share?
I feel terrible when I see it happen. Well, terrible, seasoned with a couple of turns of the revelling-in-chaotic-malice mill.1 -
The UK is not remotely in the same shit as the likes of Italy and Greece.malcolmg said:
The UK are not in teh shit then, where have you been last few years. How is it possible that some people still cannot grasp the clusterfcuk they have burdened the country with. There are none so blind as those that will not see, all those fake sovereignty turds have lost their sheen I am afraid.Cookie said:
It's not really about what's in your wallet, is it? It's about having control of your own currency, and not being in the sort of shit Italy and Greece are in.Cicero said:
Since contactless became mainstream, the amount of people carrying cash has collapsed. I think the unit of a account is not a serious issue in the post cash world.HYUFD said:
Ask them about rejoin with the Euro and even with younger voters there is much less enthusiasm for rejoinScott_xP said:@Samfr
Deltapoll break down their polls by generation. This was today's Q on "would you vote to rejoin the EU"
Gen Z: 89% Yes / 9% No
Millennials: 67% Yes / 33% No
Gen X: 57% Yes / 43% No
Boomers: 47% Yes / 53% No
@GavinBarwell
After the election, the Conservative Party is going to have to face this reality
I know it will be both painful and difficult - most current Conservative voters don't want to rejoin - but it is very clear how public opinion is going to evolve given this demographic skew
Which isn't exactly anything to be proud of: The UK: not quite as shit as Greece is hardly Britain rules the waves now, is it?1 -
I thought that was geeks at Harvard finding a way to talk to women and be “friends” with them without actually having to do the terrifying thing of talking to women.Farooq said:
Wasn't that how Facebook started?BartholomewRoberts said:
Every good business needs to know what its USP is.El_Capitano said:
Someone buys the rights to Loaded and relaunches it every couple of years. It never works. I don't see any sign it'll work this time either, given that it doesn't appear to be anywhere on the first few pages of Google even when you search directly for "loaded".viewcode said:
From Popbitch (shortened to prevent copyright violation)Casino_Royale said:
"......Since leaving the National Enquirer under a pitch-black cloud, Dylan [Howard] has been trying to launder his reputation with Empire Media: a company which bought up old, out-of-print titles...
...One such title here in the UK was the beloved Q Magazine...Sadly, Dylan has monumentally fucked it once again and ended up pulling the plug on the entire operation on Monday with no warning, leaving a team of distraught journalists out of a job...
...Curiously, Q was shuttered on the same day Loaded came back from the dead for a digital-only relaunch: featuring their original cover girl (Liz Hurley) and their original slogan (“For Men Who Should Know Better”)..."
It caught the zeitgeist at a particular moment in time. You can't bring that back.
Astute recap of the original Loaded, its rise and fall: http://littleatoms.com/words/loaded-end-magazine-should-have-known-better
Having a USP of "a website where men can ogle women" isn't a particularly strong USP.2 -
John Major's Huntingdon seat is in danger of going to Labour according to the New Statesman's forecast. It was of course the safest seat in the country a number of times when Major was MP.
Con 30.5%
Lab 29.3%
Ref 14.4%
LD 13.0%
Grn 8.1%
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts1 -
Suck Suck SuckHeathener said:
You could be right Robert. History would support your kind of assessment.rcs1000 said:The Conservative Party will outperform expectations on 4 July, and will get more than 200 seats. The LibDems will more than double their seat count, and will do rather better in terms of vote share than the current polls predict, but will miss out on a dozen seats by small margins. The SNP will hold on to their number two spot, getting around 30 seats. And Labour will manage an inverse of 2019, achieving a majority of around 80.
You heard it here first.
However, I don’t think it’s based on reading the room. (At the moment.)0 -
So why was he there?RochdalePioneers said:A fun* day our shooting video for social media. Now a pile of editing to do.
Met my Labour opponent! Nice guy, not from the constituency, doesn't sound like he is running a campaign.0 -
If Corbyn does get elected it'll be quite amusing to see quite where he sits himself in the HoC.Andy_JS said:
Big question in Islington North is could the Greens come through the middle, if the Labour vote is evenly split?TheValiant said:
Corbyn is now 75 years old.AlsoLei said:Islington North Update
In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.
No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.
I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.
My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.
I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....
Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.0 -
The "30,000 will be given a commission" nonsense is yet more proof that the policy was dreamed up at the last minute by a bunch of inexperienced Spads who don't actually know what they're talking about. There are only 28,000 commissioned officers in our Armed Forces - why would we want to (more than) double that without a commensurate rise in the number of those in other ranks?Carnyx said:
Well, if Tory ministers go out and talk about a year's commission, who are we to accuse them of lying or not knowing the meaning of the words they use?boulay said:
Surely the military option wouldn’t be as officers, more like CCF and then used to do guard duties to free up other soldiers with anyone showing promise sent on courses which are worthwhile and might make them consider switching to Sandhurst.Carnyx said:
Also for apprentices and the like, as already remarked on here.AlsoLei said:
I would have thought that it would be impossible to restrict it to men, even if they wanted to!OldKingCole said:
I seem to recall one or two girls I knew discovering they were pregnant after their boyfriends National Service embarkation leave.boulay said:
Maybe a stint of national service is calculated to turn the kids to drink and fags which will boost treasury coffers with the VAT and boost the drunken pregnancies boosting the birth rate. Sounds perfectly sensible.Scott_xP said:@slowbikeiain
Today's teens drink less, smoke less, take fewer drugs, commit fewer crimes and get pregnant less than their parents or grandparents. What problem are the Tories trying to solve?
@BradfemlyWalsh
The lazy little shits.
18 months later, when the lad came home from Singapore………
Of course, if the chap was being posted to Germany he might get a long weekend to get married.
Also, if the new National Service is going to apply to girls as well as boys things could get quite complicated.
They'll have to have a system of exemptions - including for pregnancy, and for people with caring responsibilities.
But what about illness and disability? Will there be a system of assessments, reviews, and appeals like there is for PIP?
No conscientious objection, though: just don't tick the squaddy box.
[Still wondering at the apparent mismatch between a paid year as a plastic officer and 24 weekends doing what will in some cases look remarkably similar to a court sentence of community service. Which compares rather adversely with actual sentences passed on actual MPs for doing actual crimes.)
A bit of basic infantry training and you can replace the RAF regiment on the cheap.
Your attempt at making sense of it - I do sympathise - sounds a bit like the old Junior Leaders' Regiments - but those were for 15 yo or so. At 18 you don't want to faff around but get stuck into the serious business.
Perhaps the idea is rather more basic: to give the little dears the choice of a year's NS bored out of one's mind as a squaddy with a pick handle outside the depot at Catterick, or trying for orficer selection and a short service commission.
See also the "a royal commission will look into it" stuff - royal commissions fell out of use because they were wide-ranging and woolly. The last one was appointed in 1999, and there've only been three since 1977 (subjects: 'The Press', 'Care of the Aged', and 'The House of Lords').
Even if royal commissions were to be brought back into use, the question of how best to implement a policy where the broad outlines have already been announced would still be a job for an Inquiry instead. At best, a royal commission might be tasked with looking into the subjects of 'national service' more broadly, or perhaps 'community cohesion', or 'volunteering opportunities for young adults'.
If William Hague really has been working on this for months, he should be ashamed of himself for doing such an embarrassingly half-arsed job.2 -
I disagree. I think however bad this Tory campaign is, plenty of sensible people will be convinced by the line that Labour's victory is assured, but it's your duty to vote for good local constituency MPs to give the Tories a base to rebuild from. Hell I am convinced by that line and have never voted Tory.Cleitophon said:
I don't see that happening.... I see the tory campaign collapsing completely. It will limp to July 4th at best. Sunak thought a 6 week campaign would reveal labour. It is going to expose the void at the heart of the party. Yet another rookie mistake. It doesn't take an Andy Marr to see they are flailing and totally disorganized without the stamina for a long fight.Andy_JS said:My hunch is the Tories will win a minimum of 30% and 200 seats. The only problem is there's no sign of them moving towards 30% in the opinion polls at the moment.
That's what my parents are doing - I think the cultural jump towards voting Labour or abstaining is just too great for at least 20-25% of the country.0 -
I was only recently tipped off by some friends who work in HR that exit interviews aren't really to do with feedback for the company.boulay said:
Nothing like an exit interview to help each party do things better in the future.DougSeal said:
Back in the early 2000s a friend of mine tried to split up from her boyfriend by email. She believed the recall function did just that and sent a variety of different versions of said missive, thinking she had recalled the earlier drafts. He laughed at her in the restaurant where the breakup was finalised that evening, read each version back to her, before ordering desert. He was a cast iron heartless shit.JosiasJessop said:
When the pay of everyone in the company was sent out as an attachment. Those of us on a POP3/SMTP setup got to see it as the recall did not work.rkrkrk said:Ex colleague of mine told me as a junior consultant he once sent sensitive details of a merger to entire office by accident - everyone had to sign some legal docs in a rush because of him.
Anyone else got horror stories they care to share?
Also - and not a recall issue - at another place HR sent out a list of project codewords, including the status. Which told a few people their project was to be canned as it was in the 'cancelled' section...
They are about understanding if you might have a case against them, and an opportunity to get your statement on their record which helps them - just in case you do.
I must admit I thought that unduly cynical. If lots of people are leaving and all saying the same thing any sensible company will want to know why, but I've also been advised to be as positive and constructive as possible- because how you act when leaving is how your brand will be judged.1 -
Put UK election into Google.
Top result is "Time for Change. Vote Labour on July 4th."1 -
Young uneducated white men don't have the numbers... not by a long shot. I was going for a completely different kind of centre right: progressive and pro-eu. That is where the sustainable numbers are.maxh said:
Which suggests the next iteration of the Tory party might build from some of the 'new right': younger, harder edged, less globalist, very anti-woke. Proud Boys/Yaxley-Lennon might provide a model.Cleitophon said:
Same could be said of the average tory and reform member.. they are old.... the whole right has no demographic future.... also it is spent as a political movement. All its energies gone. The age of the millenial is upon us. They will dominate for the next 30 years.TheValiant said:
Corbyn is now 75 years old.AlsoLei said:Islington North Update
In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.
No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.
I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.
My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.
I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....
Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
Alternatively they return to centrist Dad territory to tempt back those who are currently Labour. I've been surprised by the number of people I generally see eye-to-eye with on here (eg @numbertwelve, @Stuartinromford and others) describe themselves as centre right and/or more naturally Tory than Labour.1 -
I doubt Ref will clock that high so should be OK.Andy_JS said:John Major's Huntingdon seat is in danger of going to Labour according to the New Statesman's forecast. It was of course the safest seat in the country a number of times when Major was MP.
Con 30.5%
Lab 29.3%
Ref 14.4%
LD 13.0%
Grn 8.1%
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts
I also think Bob Seely will hold on in the IoW.1 -
Proud Boy, Tommeh, Tate et al (and things like the various GamerGate offspring around which these things coalesced) aren’t enough though.maxh said:
Which suggests the next iteration of the Tory party might build from some of the 'new right': younger, harder edged, less globalist, very anti-woke. Proud Boys/Yaxley-Lennon might provide a model.Cleitophon said:
Same could be said of the average tory and reform member.. they are old.... the whole right has no demographic future.... also it is spent as a political movement. All its energies gone. The age of the millenial is upon us. They will dominate for the next 30 years.TheValiant said:
Corbyn is now 75 years old.AlsoLei said:Islington North Update
In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.
No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.
I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.
My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.
I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....
Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
Alternatively they return to centrist Dad territory to tempt back those who are currently Labour. I've been surprised by the number of people I generally see eye-to-eye with on here (eg @numbertwelve, @Stuartinromford and others) describe themselves as centre right and/or more naturally Tory than Labour.
They are a shout against progressive values but they won’t get bins emptied, houses built or taxes collected. In in and of themselves they are loud but broadly pretty unpopular.
If the Tories want to come back, they need to find that ‘natural party of government’ mojo, not hitch their wagon to the Football Lads Brigade.2 -
The nonsensical national service policy. The Conservative MP endorsing Reform UK. Steve Baker going on holiday. Attempting to describe Starmer as tired and too old.
Versus a good speech from Starmer and consistent messaging from Labour.
It feels like the Conservatives are in a death spiral. But what do I know? We’ll have to see how the polling changes this week.1 -
@Leon wrote for lads' mags, that makes sense.0
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Funny. I've just done that on my phone and I don't get that.dixiedean said:Put UK election into Google.
Top result is "Time for Change. Vote Labour on July 4th."0 -
It was to publicly (and without consent obvs) rate the shaggability of fellow students.boulay said:
I thought that was geeks at Harvard finding a way to talk to women and be “friends” with them without actually having to do the terrifying thing of talking to women.Farooq said:
Wasn't that how Facebook started?BartholomewRoberts said:
Every good business needs to know what its USP is.El_Capitano said:
Someone buys the rights to Loaded and relaunches it every couple of years. It never works. I don't see any sign it'll work this time either, given that it doesn't appear to be anywhere on the first few pages of Google even when you search directly for "loaded".viewcode said:
From Popbitch (shortened to prevent copyright violation)Casino_Royale said:
"......Since leaving the National Enquirer under a pitch-black cloud, Dylan [Howard] has been trying to launder his reputation with Empire Media: a company which bought up old, out-of-print titles...
...One such title here in the UK was the beloved Q Magazine...Sadly, Dylan has monumentally fucked it once again and ended up pulling the plug on the entire operation on Monday with no warning, leaving a team of distraught journalists out of a job...
...Curiously, Q was shuttered on the same day Loaded came back from the dead for a digital-only relaunch: featuring their original cover girl (Liz Hurley) and their original slogan (“For Men Who Should Know Better”)..."
It caught the zeitgeist at a particular moment in time. You can't bring that back.
Astute recap of the original Loaded, its rise and fall: http://littleatoms.com/words/loaded-end-magazine-should-have-known-better
Having a USP of "a website where men can ogle women" isn't a particularly strong USP.0 -
Looks like there'll be plenty of space on that side.Omnium said:
If Corbyn does get elected it'll be quite amusing to see quite where he sits himself in the HoC.Andy_JS said:
Big question in Islington North is could the Greens come through the middle, if the Labour vote is evenly split?TheValiant said:
Corbyn is now 75 years old.AlsoLei said:Islington North Update
In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.
No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.
I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.
My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.
I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....
Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.0 -
Labour lead over Conservatives may be overstated, says Tory election expert
Robert Hayward, who identified ‘shy Tories’ in 1992, suggests the party is winning support from undecided voters
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/27/labour-polling-lead-conservatives-overstated-tory-election-expert1 -
I remain of the view a hung Parliament is still very likely.0
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Off topic, but important election news: "As South Africans head into national elections Wednesday, the country’s politics have been rocked by an epidemic of assassinations, including 40 recorded since the start of last year. While they have largely targeted local officials, politicians and activists, the killings appear set to impact the outcome of the national vote."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/27/south-africa-election-anc-killings/
According to the article, the assasinations are one of the reasons the ANC is likely to lose.
I have to admire the candidates who are running, in spite of the risks.0 -
Targeted ads. Similar to the twitter echo chamber.Casino_Royale said:
Funny. I've just done that on my phone and I don't get that.dixiedean said:Put UK election into Google.
Top result is "Time for Change. Vote Labour on July 4th."2 -
So with National Service arming the public schoolboys, young uneducated white men aren’t even going to be able to go all Jim Morrison and brag about “they’ve got the guns but we’ve got the numbers”. A sad day for Doors fans and uneducated white men everywhere.Cleitophon said:
Young uneducated white men don't have the numbers... not by a long shot. I was going for a completely different kind of centre right: progressive and pro-eu. That is where the sustainable numbers are.maxh said:
Which suggests the next iteration of the Tory party might build from some of the 'new right': younger, harder edged, less globalist, very anti-woke. Proud Boys/Yaxley-Lennon might provide a model.Cleitophon said:
Same could be said of the average tory and reform member.. they are old.... the whole right has no demographic future.... also it is spent as a political movement. All its energies gone. The age of the millenial is upon us. They will dominate for the next 30 years.TheValiant said:
Corbyn is now 75 years old.AlsoLei said:Islington North Update
In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.
No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.
I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.
My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.
I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....
Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
Alternatively they return to centrist Dad territory to tempt back those who are currently Labour. I've been surprised by the number of people I generally see eye-to-eye with on here (eg @numbertwelve, @Stuartinromford and others) describe themselves as centre right and/or more naturally Tory than Labour.0 -
what a claim to fame , "we are not quite as shit as Greece or Zimbabwe"BartholomewRoberts said:
The UK is not remotely in the same shit as the likes of Italy and Greece.malcolmg said:
The UK are not in teh shit then, where have you been last few years. How is it possible that some people still cannot grasp the clusterfcuk they have burdened the country with. There are none so blind as those that will not see, all those fake sovereignty turds have lost their sheen I am afraid.Cookie said:
It's not really about what's in your wallet, is it? It's about having control of your own currency, and not being in the sort of shit Italy and Greece are in.Cicero said:
Since contactless became mainstream, the amount of people carrying cash has collapsed. I think the unit of a account is not a serious issue in the post cash world.HYUFD said:
Ask them about rejoin with the Euro and even with younger voters there is much less enthusiasm for rejoinScott_xP said:@Samfr
Deltapoll break down their polls by generation. This was today's Q on "would you vote to rejoin the EU"
Gen Z: 89% Yes / 9% No
Millennials: 67% Yes / 33% No
Gen X: 57% Yes / 43% No
Boomers: 47% Yes / 53% No
@GavinBarwell
After the election, the Conservative Party is going to have to face this reality
I know it will be both painful and difficult - most current Conservative voters don't want to rejoin - but it is very clear how public opinion is going to evolve given this demographic skew
Which isn't exactly anything to be proud of: The UK: not quite as shit as Greece is hardly Britain rules the waves now, is it?1 -
It feels like the Tories have already thrown the towel in.Cleitophon said:
I don't see that happening.... I see the tory campaign collapsing completely. It will limp to July 4th at best. Sunak thought a 6 week campaign would reveal labour. It is going to expose the void at the heart of the party. Yet another rookie mistake. It doesn't take an Andy Marr to see they are flailing and totally disorganized without the stamina for a long fight.Andy_JS said:My hunch is the Tories will win a minimum of 30% and 200 seats. The only problem is there's no sign of them moving towards 30% in the opinion polls at the moment.
25% tops I suspect.1 -
That's my argument too. In fact, there's a national interest argument.maxh said:
I disagree. I think however bad this Tory campaign is, plenty of sensible people will be convinced by the line that Labour's victory is assured, but it's your duty to vote for good local constituency MPs to give the Tories a base to rebuild from. Hell I am convinced by that line and have never voted Tory.Cleitophon said:
I don't see that happening.... I see the tory campaign collapsing completely. It will limp to July 4th at best. Sunak thought a 6 week campaign would reveal labour. It is going to expose the void at the heart of the party. Yet another rookie mistake. It doesn't take an Andy Marr to see they are flailing and totally disorganized without the stamina for a long fight.Andy_JS said:My hunch is the Tories will win a minimum of 30% and 200 seats. The only problem is there's no sign of them moving towards 30% in the opinion polls at the moment.
That's what my parents are doing - I think the cultural jump towards voting Labour or abstaining is just too great for at least 20-25% of the country.
Having zero Tory MPs in the Commons is a bad idea. And I'd have said the same if it looked like the Conservatives would get 500 MPs and wipe out Labour too.
If nothing else it leads to bad governance, internal factionalism, corruption and abuse, and can actually accelerate a party's decline rather than prolong its period in office and its legacy.2 -
Mandy Rice-Davies applies.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Labour lead over Conservatives may be overstated, says Tory election expert
Robert Hayward, who identified ‘shy Tories’ in 1992, suggests the party is winning support from undecided voters
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/27/labour-polling-lead-conservatives-overstated-tory-election-expert3 -
In the next few years those of us still alive will look back on the reactionary right’s shibboleths and wonder how we ended up there.malcolmg said:
Any idiot trying to push Trans shit again will be out on their arse and deservedly so.Heathener said:
This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.Casino_Royale said:
Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
You’ll not stop the tide of history. Same happened with gay rights. You’re on the lost side. Just a question of time.2 -
Forcefully stated, but I think Streeting's remarks yesterday signalled a real determination not to get bogged down in that, as you put it, shitmalcolmg said:
Any idiot trying to push Trans shit again will be out on their arse and deservedly so.Heathener said:
This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.Casino_Royale said:
Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...1 -
Yes on reflection I'm sure you're right. If that group becomes important it is unlikely to be within the democratic system.Cleitophon said:
Young uneducated white men don't have the numbers... not by a long shot. I was going for a completely different kind of centre right: progressive and pro-eu. That is where the sustainable numbers are.maxh said:
Which suggests the next iteration of the Tory party might build from some of the 'new right': younger, harder edged, less globalist, very anti-woke. Proud Boys/Yaxley-Lennon might provide a model.Cleitophon said:
Same could be said of the average tory and reform member.. they are old.... the whole right has no demographic future.... also it is spent as a political movement. All its energies gone. The age of the millenial is upon us. They will dominate for the next 30 years.TheValiant said:
Corbyn is now 75 years old.AlsoLei said:Islington North Update
In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.
No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.
I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.
My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.
I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....
Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
Alternatively they return to centrist Dad territory to tempt back those who are currently Labour. I've been surprised by the number of people I generally see eye-to-eye with on here (eg @numbertwelve, @Stuartinromford and others) describe themselves as centre right and/or more naturally Tory than Labour.
Your group would heavily overlap with my centrist dads group, and you could see Labour reverting to an anti-eu stance once they're out of power (some sort of successor to Corbyn).0 -
I spend most of my working life with lots of young, uneducated white men.Cleitophon said:
Young uneducated white men don't have the numbers... not by a long shot. I was going for a completely different kind of centre right: progressive and pro-eu. That is where the sustainable numbers are.maxh said:
Which suggests the next iteration of the Tory party might build from some of the 'new right': younger, harder edged, less globalist, very anti-woke. Proud Boys/Yaxley-Lennon might provide a model.Cleitophon said:
Same could be said of the average tory and reform member.. they are old.... the whole right has no demographic future.... also it is spent as a political movement. All its energies gone. The age of the millenial is upon us. They will dominate for the next 30 years.TheValiant said:
Corbyn is now 75 years old.AlsoLei said:Islington North Update
In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.
No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.
I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.
My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.
I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....
Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
Alternatively they return to centrist Dad territory to tempt back those who are currently Labour. I've been surprised by the number of people I generally see eye-to-eye with on here (eg @numbertwelve, @Stuartinromford and others) describe themselves as centre right and/or more naturally Tory than Labour.
Màny of them are so woke they'd cause apoplexy on this site.6 -
8/1 available on NOM if you fancy it.BatteryCorrectHorse said:I remain of the view a hung Parliament is still very likely.
1 -
If we want to rule the waves, we've got to pay for it.BartholomewRoberts said:
The UK is not remotely in the same shit as the likes of Italy and Greece.malcolmg said:
The UK are not in teh shit then, where have you been last few years. How is it possible that some people still cannot grasp the clusterfcuk they have burdened the country with. There are none so blind as those that will not see, all those fake sovereignty turds have lost their sheen I am afraid.Cookie said:
It's not really about what's in your wallet, is it? It's about having control of your own currency, and not being in the sort of shit Italy and Greece are in.Cicero said:
Since contactless became mainstream, the amount of people carrying cash has collapsed. I think the unit of a account is not a serious issue in the post cash world.HYUFD said:
Ask them about rejoin with the Euro and even with younger voters there is much less enthusiasm for rejoinScott_xP said:@Samfr
Deltapoll break down their polls by generation. This was today's Q on "would you vote to rejoin the EU"
Gen Z: 89% Yes / 9% No
Millennials: 67% Yes / 33% No
Gen X: 57% Yes / 43% No
Boomers: 47% Yes / 53% No
@GavinBarwell
After the election, the Conservative Party is going to have to face this reality
I know it will be both painful and difficult - most current Conservative voters don't want to rejoin - but it is very clear how public opinion is going to evolve given this demographic skew
Which isn't exactly anything to be proud of: The UK: not quite as shit as Greece is hardly Britain rules the waves now, is it?
We used to have well over 1,000 ships in the Royal Navy.1 -
I agree that you need a decent opposition in the Commons. But Ed Davey can provide that.Casino_Royale said:
That's my argument too. In fact, there's a national interest argument.maxh said:
I disagree. I think however bad this Tory campaign is, plenty of sensible people will be convinced by the line that Labour's victory is assured, but it's your duty to vote for good local constituency MPs to give the Tories a base to rebuild from. Hell I am convinced by that line and have never voted Tory.Cleitophon said:
I don't see that happening.... I see the tory campaign collapsing completely. It will limp to July 4th at best. Sunak thought a 6 week campaign would reveal labour. It is going to expose the void at the heart of the party. Yet another rookie mistake. It doesn't take an Andy Marr to see they are flailing and totally disorganized without the stamina for a long fight.Andy_JS said:My hunch is the Tories will win a minimum of 30% and 200 seats. The only problem is there's no sign of them moving towards 30% in the opinion polls at the moment.
That's what my parents are doing - I think the cultural jump towards voting Labour or abstaining is just too great for at least 20-25% of the country.
Having zero Tory MPs in the Commons is a bad idea. And I'd have said the same if it looked like the Conservatives would get 500 MPs and wipe out Labour too.
If nothing else it leads to bad governance, internal factionalism, corruption and abuse, and can actually accelerate a party's decline rather than prolong its period in office and its legacy.
4 -
Disappointed not to see at least a R&W poll so far this evening.
On the other hand, we need to shake the bank holiday out of our hair and, possibly, also half-term week.0 -
Indeed.dixiedean said:
I spend most of my working life with lots of young, uneducated white men.Cleitophon said:
Young uneducated white men don't have the numbers... not by a long shot. I was going for a completely different kind of centre right: progressive and pro-eu. That is where the sustainable numbers are.maxh said:
Which suggests the next iteration of the Tory party might build from some of the 'new right': younger, harder edged, less globalist, very anti-woke. Proud Boys/Yaxley-Lennon might provide a model.Cleitophon said:
Same could be said of the average tory and reform member.. they are old.... the whole right has no demographic future.... also it is spent as a political movement. All its energies gone. The age of the millenial is upon us. They will dominate for the next 30 years.TheValiant said:
Corbyn is now 75 years old.AlsoLei said:Islington North Update
In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.
No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.
I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.
My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.
I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....
Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
Alternatively they return to centrist Dad territory to tempt back those who are currently Labour. I've been surprised by the number of people I generally see eye-to-eye with on here (eg @numbertwelve, @Stuartinromford and others) describe themselves as centre right and/or more naturally Tory than Labour.
Màny of them are so woke they'd cause apoplexy on this site.
I’m not sure this site is a particularly good litmus for youth understanding.0 -
Then their ad buying is extremely crafty then.Casino_Royale said:
Funny. I've just done that on my phone and I don't get that.dixiedean said:Put UK election into Google.
Top result is "Time for Change. Vote Labour on July 4th."0 -
Have Labour HQ ordered a job lot of parachutes? Lot of safe seat step downs today.
Still no Tories since Leadsom? I thought they were expecting loads this weekend?0 -
The optimal currency area for the pound encompasses... er... London.williamglenn said:
That argument trivialises the economic considerations and could equally be turned around to say that the Euro has lost its raison d'être.Cicero said:
Since contactless became mainstream, the amount of people carrying cash has collapsed. I think the unit of a account is not a serious issue in the post cash world.HYUFD said:
Ask them about rejoin with the Euro and even with younger voters there is much less enthusiasm for rejoinScott_xP said:@Samfr
Deltapoll break down their polls by generation. This was today's Q on "would you vote to rejoin the EU"
Gen Z: 89% Yes / 9% No
Millennials: 67% Yes / 33% No
Gen X: 57% Yes / 43% No
Boomers: 47% Yes / 53% No
@GavinBarwell
After the election, the Conservative Party is going to have to face this reality
I know it will be both painful and difficult - most current Conservative voters don't want to rejoin - but it is very clear how public opinion is going to evolve given this demographic skew
So joining the Euro would be perfectly in keeping with the recent Tory London-phobic behaviour.
(In reality, we only need to apply to join the Euro when rejoining the EU. There's no reason for that application to ever succeed.)0 -
YouGov polling suggests the Tories are out of sync with the public trying to push their modern Section 28 on schools, with 61% of the public in favour of teaching gender ideology vs 29% against, rising to 66% of parents with at least 1 child under 18 - https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49445-should-pupils-be-taught-about-gender-identity-in-schoolsmalcolmg said:
Any idiot trying to push Trans shit again will be out on their arse and deservedly so.Heathener said:
This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.Casino_Royale said:
Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
Labour members are also very supportive of trans people being "able to live their lives free from harassment, abuse and intimidation" (93% support) -https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/LabourTogether_LabourMembers_231027_Transgender_Rights_W.pdf
I imagine there is far less support for trans women competing in women's sports, and rapists being sent to female jails - as well there should be. That's just basic common sense.
But in general the public seem pretty relaxed about gender identity, and you can probably expect the Labour party to take a moderate stance on it, in line with the general public.
It's an issue that gets a small minority very hot under the collar, but with the Tories out of power and no longer able to push it as a wedge issue, hopefully trans and gender nonconforming people will be able to get back on with living their lives, without being turned into another outpost of the culture war.4 -
Surefire vote loser, be madness to be pushing it. They want to just get on with their lives.megasaur said:
Forcefully stated, but I think Streeting's remarks yesterday signalled a real determination not to get bogged down in that, as you put it, shitmalcolmg said:
Any idiot trying to push Trans shit again will be out on their arse and deservedly so.Heathener said:
This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.Casino_Royale said:
Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...0 -
Whoever produces the electricity, the energy companies will profit and the poor bloody infantry will pay for it.Luckyguy1983 said:Interesting Twitter thread that my attention has been drawn to:
https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1789201786340884797
"In the UK, renewables are subsidised by three different schemes. Feed-in-Tariffs fund mostly solar power. The latest report for 2022-23 shows the average total payment was >£190/MWh, about 3X the current cost of gas-fired power."
So though we're continually being told that renewables, especially wind, have become cheaper than gas, we're actually paying 3 times the amount for renewable energy than we are for gas, and that includes carbon payments.
This will go up even more when the higher guaranteed price that the Government had to dangle in-front of wind providers to get them to actually bid in the most recent round of auctions feeds into the system. If wind is so cheap, why did we need to increase the price paid by 70%?
One for @BartholomewRoberts to ponder.2 -
On the Labour response to the National Service , I dont think they should be mocking it as a teenage Dad's army - for two reasons - one it sounds like teenagers are incompetent and secondly , Dad's army and its characters were loved by the GBP (probably for at least trying to do their bit) .
I dont agree with National Service but dont mock the community sentiment behind it - Cameron with his Big Society idea was mocked but again it felt a bit mean to many people0 -
They’re treading very carefully this side of the election.megasaur said:
Forcefully stated, but I think Streeting's remarks yesterday signalled a real determination not to get bogged down in that, as you put it, shitmalcolmg said:
Any idiot trying to push Trans shit again will be out on their arse and deservedly so.Heathener said:
This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.Casino_Royale said:
Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
But it’s also important to note that it won’t be a Government’s priority because other things matter sooooooooooooooooo much more to people.
It will just be by quiet osmosis that people who wish to identify that way will not be bashed for doing so by a party hell-bent on Nastiness at every turn.
We’ll move on. A kinder, more gentle, caring, society. I notice it already in fact in the number of people smiling and saying hello to others. Cars stopping to allow people to cross the road. It’s as if a giant burden has already been lifted from the nation’s shoulders and we can breathe and smile again.0 -
It seems we are looking at prosecutions beginning 2026 earliest.Nigelb said:Post Office scandal: Police to deploy 80 detectives for criminal inquiry
Exclusive: Investigation will dig into potential perjury offences and perverting the course of justice by senior leaders and Fujitsu
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/27/post-office-scandal-police-to-deploy-80-detectives-for-criminal-inquiry
This is not satisfactory considering some examples of the offences are so blatant it is hard to see how they can be defended on known evidence to date. I'm not just thinking Paula Vennells, but Angela v d Bogen, Gareth Jenkins, Jarnail Singh and numerous investigators and legal advisers have already all but confessed.
Why not get on with it?1 -
Except he can't, can he?bondegezou said:
I agree that you need a decent opposition in the Commons. But Ed Davey can provide that.Casino_Royale said:
That's my argument too. In fact, there's a national interest argument.maxh said:
I disagree. I think however bad this Tory campaign is, plenty of sensible people will be convinced by the line that Labour's victory is assured, but it's your duty to vote for good local constituency MPs to give the Tories a base to rebuild from. Hell I am convinced by that line and have never voted Tory.Cleitophon said:
I don't see that happening.... I see the tory campaign collapsing completely. It will limp to July 4th at best. Sunak thought a 6 week campaign would reveal labour. It is going to expose the void at the heart of the party. Yet another rookie mistake. It doesn't take an Andy Marr to see they are flailing and totally disorganized without the stamina for a long fight.Andy_JS said:My hunch is the Tories will win a minimum of 30% and 200 seats. The only problem is there's no sign of them moving towards 30% in the opinion polls at the moment.
That's what my parents are doing - I think the cultural jump towards voting Labour or abstaining is just too great for at least 20-25% of the country.
Having zero Tory MPs in the Commons is a bad idea. And I'd have said the same if it looked like the Conservatives would get 500 MPs and wipe out Labour too.
If nothing else it leads to bad governance, internal factionalism, corruption and abuse, and can actually accelerate a party's decline rather than prolong its period in office and its legacy.
In all respects he's a man of the Left who just fancies the EU more.
An opposition needs to be meaningful, not tokenistic.0 -
Exactly. You only need to look at the lack of coherent opposition to Boris Johnson whilst Corbyn was leading the Labour party for a recent example.Casino_Royale said:
That's my argument too. In fact, there's a national interest argument.maxh said:
I disagree. I think however bad this Tory campaign is, plenty of sensible people will be convinced by the line that Labour's victory is assured, but it's your duty to vote for good local constituency MPs to give the Tories a base to rebuild from. Hell I am convinced by that line and have never voted Tory.Cleitophon said:
I don't see that happening.... I see the tory campaign collapsing completely. It will limp to July 4th at best. Sunak thought a 6 week campaign would reveal labour. It is going to expose the void at the heart of the party. Yet another rookie mistake. It doesn't take an Andy Marr to see they are flailing and totally disorganized without the stamina for a long fight.Andy_JS said:My hunch is the Tories will win a minimum of 30% and 200 seats. The only problem is there's no sign of them moving towards 30% in the opinion polls at the moment.
That's what my parents are doing - I think the cultural jump towards voting Labour or abstaining is just too great for at least 20-25% of the country.
Having zero Tory MPs in the Commons is a bad idea. And I'd have said the same if it looked like the Conservatives would get 500 MPs and wipe out Labour too.
If nothing else it leads to bad governance, internal factionalism, corruption and abuse, and can actually accelerate a party's decline rather than prolong its period in office and its legacy.
Especially in the next few years when difficult decisions will need to be taken, we need a solid Tory opposition to hold Labour's feet to the fire.0 -
Perfectly putkyf_100 said:
YouGov polling suggests the Tories are out of sync with the public trying to push their modern Section 28 on schools, with 61% of the public in favour of teaching gender ideology vs 29% against, rising to 66% of parents with at least 1 child under 18 - https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49445-should-pupils-be-taught-about-gender-identity-in-schoolsmalcolmg said:
Any idiot trying to push Trans shit again will be out on their arse and deservedly so.Heathener said:
This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.Casino_Royale said:
Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
Labour members are also very supportive of trans people being "able to live their lives free from harassment, abuse and intimidation" (93% support) -https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/LabourTogether_LabourMembers_231027_Transgender_Rights_W.pdf
I imagine there is far less support for trans women competing in women's sports, and rapists being sent to female jails - as well there should be. That's just basic common sense.
But in general the public seem pretty relaxed about gender identity, and you can probably expect the Labour party to take a moderate stance on it, in line with the general public.
It's an issue that gets a small minority very hot under the collar, but with the Tories out of power and no longer able to push it as a wedge issue, hopefully trans and gender nonconforming people will be able to get back on with living their lives, without being turned into another outpost of the culture war.2 -
The last year or so has shown that tide crashing into a number of immovable objects, and then moving out again.Heathener said:
In the next few years those of us still alive will look back on the reactionary right’s shibboleths and wonder how we ended up there.malcolmg said:
Any idiot trying to push Trans shit again will be out on their arse and deservedly so.Heathener said:
This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.Casino_Royale said:
Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
You’ll not stop the tide of history. Same happened with gay rights. You’re on the lost side. Just a question of time.1 -
Trouble is, this is exactly what George Osborne thought.Cleitophon said:
Young uneducated white men don't have the numbers... not by a long shot. I was going for a completely different kind of centre right: progressive and pro-eu. That is where the sustainable numbers are.maxh said:
Which suggests the next iteration of the Tory party might build from some of the 'new right': younger, harder edged, less globalist, very anti-woke. Proud Boys/Yaxley-Lennon might provide a model.Cleitophon said:
Same could be said of the average tory and reform member.. they are old.... the whole right has no demographic future.... also it is spent as a political movement. All its energies gone. The age of the millenial is upon us. They will dominate for the next 30 years.TheValiant said:
Corbyn is now 75 years old.AlsoLei said:Islington North Update
In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.
No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.
I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.
My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.
I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....
Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
Alternatively they return to centrist Dad territory to tempt back those who are currently Labour. I've been surprised by the number of people I generally see eye-to-eye with on here (eg @numbertwelve, @Stuartinromford and others) describe themselves as centre right and/or more naturally Tory than Labour.
There's a very small market for what you describe.0 -
There's no such thing as a "tide of history".Casino_Royale said:
The last year or so has shown that tide crashing into a number of immovable objects, and then moving out again.Heathener said:
In the next few years those of us still alive will look back on the reactionary right’s shibboleths and wonder how we ended up there.malcolmg said:
Any idiot trying to push Trans shit again will be out on their arse and deservedly so.Heathener said:
This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.Casino_Royale said:
Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
You’ll not stop the tide of history. Same happened with gay rights. You’re on the lost side. Just a question of time.
Sometimes things are a good idea, like gay rights.
Other time things are a bad idea, like Paedophile Information Exchange.
Treating trans people with respect is a good idea.
Treating women with disrespect is a bad idea.0 -
thats just bank holiday weekend vibes!Heathener said:
They’re treading very carefully this side of the election.megasaur said:
Forcefully stated, but I think Streeting's remarks yesterday signalled a real determination not to get bogged down in that, as you put it, shitmalcolmg said:
Any idiot trying to push Trans shit again will be out on their arse and deservedly so.Heathener said:
This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.Casino_Royale said:
Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
But it’s also important to note that it won’t be a Government’s priority because other things matter sooooooooooooooooo much more to people.
It will just be by quiet osmosis that people who wish to identify that way will not be bashed for doing so by a party hell-bent on Nastiness at every turn.
We’ll move on. A kinder, more gentle, caring, society. I notice it already in fact in the number of people smiling and saying hello to others. Cars stopping to allow people to cross the road. It’s as if a giant burden has already been lifted from the nation’s shoulders and we can breathe and smile again.0 -
And drifting.Ghedebrav said:
8/1 available on NOM if you fancy it.BatteryCorrectHorse said:I remain of the view a hung Parliament is still very likely.
0 -
I just tried and I get "General Election 2024: How Labour will change Britain" as the second result, the first being the Parliament.uk site.Casino_Royale said:
Funny. I've just done that on my phone and I don't get that.dixiedean said:Put UK election into Google.
Top result is "Time for Change. Vote Labour on July 4th."0 -
That’s ok if you have a good local constituency MP. Most of them are grifting arseholes.maxh said:
I disagree. I think however bad this Tory campaign is, plenty of sensible people will be convinced by the line that Labour's victory is assured, but it's your duty to vote for good local constituency MPs to give the Tories a base to rebuild from. Hell I am convinced by that line and have never voted Tory.Cleitophon said:
I don't see that happening.... I see the tory campaign collapsing completely. It will limp to July 4th at best. Sunak thought a 6 week campaign would reveal labour. It is going to expose the void at the heart of the party. Yet another rookie mistake. It doesn't take an Andy Marr to see they are flailing and totally disorganized without the stamina for a long fight.Andy_JS said:My hunch is the Tories will win a minimum of 30% and 200 seats. The only problem is there's no sign of them moving towards 30% in the opinion polls at the moment.
That's what my parents are doing - I think the cultural jump towards voting Labour or abstaining is just too great for at least 20-25% of the country.0 -
True, but you must also have noticed the echoes of Tate's messaging amongst some in that group recently.dixiedean said:
I spend most of my working life with lots of young, uneducated white men.Cleitophon said:
Young uneducated white men don't have the numbers... not by a long shot. I was going for a completely different kind of centre right: progressive and pro-eu. That is where the sustainable numbers are.maxh said:
Which suggests the next iteration of the Tory party might build from some of the 'new right': younger, harder edged, less globalist, very anti-woke. Proud Boys/Yaxley-Lennon might provide a model.Cleitophon said:
Same could be said of the average tory and reform member.. they are old.... the whole right has no demographic future.... also it is spent as a political movement. All its energies gone. The age of the millenial is upon us. They will dominate for the next 30 years.TheValiant said:
Corbyn is now 75 years old.AlsoLei said:Islington North Update
In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.
No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.
I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.
My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.
I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....
Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
Alternatively they return to centrist Dad territory to tempt back those who are currently Labour. I've been surprised by the number of people I generally see eye-to-eye with on here (eg @numbertwelve, @Stuartinromford and others) describe themselves as centre right and/or more naturally Tory than Labour.
Màny of them are so woke they'd cause apoplexy on this site.
Admittedly it was a bit of a bubble that has now burst, but we had quite a bit of it in school.
Notwithstanding that, I agree with @Cleitophon and @Ghedebrav that the numbers are small.1 -
Not much distance to travel to the edgelord populist right for him.kyf_100 said:
Wasn't a certain Spectator writer formerly of this parish also a writer for lads mags in the 90s?Stuartinromford said:
Martin Daubney went from Loaded/FHM to being a Brexit MEP then jumped to Reclaim.Ghedebrav said:
Tbh I wouldn’t be suprised if (like Gavin Macinnes in the 2000s with Vice, only less so) some of the writers from that era did drift to the edgelord populist right.boulay said:…
Do you think the journalists and associated staff on Loaded are/were travellers with the Reactionary Right? If so it would appear you never picked up a copy.Heathener said:
This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.Casino_Royale said:
Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...0 -
Do you remember when the Cons were going to fight the GE on the economy? Seems so long ago now but it was just last week! Wonder what they'll replace the National Service canard with at the end of the week.
There are going to have to be a lot of reforms and a total change of personnel before the Cons can hope to be an effective opposition.2 -
... it's probably exactly the sort of thing Starmer has in mind to echo Blair's attack on single parents to prove to the Daily Mail that he's tough on welfare scroungers.Heathener said:
This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.Casino_Royale said:
Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...0 -
I don't think Reform will do well, but I don't see their voters returning to the Tories either - most will simply sit the election out.OllyT said:
I would tend to go along with most of that except I am betting on the Tories not reaching 30% this time.rcs1000 said:
Simples:BatteryCorrectHorse said:
How do you come to this conclusion?rcs1000 said:The Conservative Party will outperform expectations on 4 July, and will get more than 200 seats. The LibDems will more than double their seat count, and will do rather better in terms of vote share than the current polls predict, but will miss out on a dozen seats by small margins. The SNP will hold on to their number two spot, getting around 30 seats. And Labour will manage an inverse of 2019, achieving a majority of around 80.
You heard it here first.
(a) Sea changes don't happen very often. A reversion to the mean is much more likely than a new paradigm. Not impossible, of course, but (like recessions) they are predicted far more often than they actually happen.
(b) The LibDems often flatter to deceive, and it's hard to get 30+ seats on a low teens vote share. Not impossible (see the LD performance in Scotland for a clear demonstration of extremely efficient vote), but unlikely.
(c) Campaign gaffs and the like don't usually make that much difference. See Pussygate, etc.
(d) The Reform vote (see council elections / byelections / etc) doesn't actually seem to actually, you know, vote. And I think that in close races, there is plenty of opportunity for them to be squeezed. Which Reform voter wants to let in a LibDem?
(e) The Labour vote is usually overstated somewhat by the polls. (See London)
In all my years of GEs I have never known such antipathy to the Tories. I know plenty of people who generally vote Tory and I cannot think of one that intends to do so this time. Not all going Labour by any means, some Lib Dem, Reform, Not Voting etc but all are resolutely certain they will not be voting Conservative.
No great enthusiasm for Starmer as there was for Blair but the hatred of Sunak/Truss/Johnson is way greater than it was for Major. Low turnout, Tories on 26-28%. Johnson would have got them to about 32-35% IMO.0 -
And a change of the change of personnel. Look at the hopefuls and shudderClutch_Brompton said:Do you remember when the Cons were going to fight the GE on the economy? Seems so long ago now but it was just last week! Wonder what they'll replace the National Service canard with at the end of the week.
There are going to have to be a lot of reforms and a total change of personnel before the Cons can hope to be an effective opposition.0 -
One more: the former editor of the UK lad mag Stuff is now one of Fox News' top pundits:Theuniondivvie said:
Not much distance to travel to the edgelord populist right for him.kyf_100 said:
Wasn't a certain Spectator writer formerly of this parish also a writer for lads mags in the 90s?Stuartinromford said:
Martin Daubney went from Loaded/FHM to being a Brexit MEP then jumped to Reclaim.Ghedebrav said:
Tbh I wouldn’t be suprised if (like Gavin Macinnes in the 2000s with Vice, only less so) some of the writers from that era did drift to the edgelord populist right.boulay said:…
Do you think the journalists and associated staff on Loaded are/were travellers with the Reactionary Right? If so it would appear you never picked up a copy.Heathener said:
This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.Casino_Royale said:
Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greg_Gutfeld0 -
As foretold by Lindsay Anderson, somewhat ambiguously.boulay said:
So with National Service arming the public schoolboys, young uneducated white men aren’t even going to be able to go all Jim Morrison and brag about “they’ve got the guns but we’ve got the numbers”. A sad day for Doors fans and uneducated white men everywhere.Cleitophon said:
Young uneducated white men don't have the numbers... not by a long shot. I was going for a completely different kind of centre right: progressive and pro-eu. That is where the sustainable numbers are.maxh said:
Which suggests the next iteration of the Tory party might build from some of the 'new right': younger, harder edged, less globalist, very anti-woke. Proud Boys/Yaxley-Lennon might provide a model.Cleitophon said:
Same could be said of the average tory and reform member.. they are old.... the whole right has no demographic future.... also it is spent as a political movement. All its energies gone. The age of the millenial is upon us. They will dominate for the next 30 years.TheValiant said:
Corbyn is now 75 years old.AlsoLei said:Islington North Update
In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.
No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.
I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.
My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.
I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....
Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
Alternatively they return to centrist Dad territory to tempt back those who are currently Labour. I've been surprised by the number of people I generally see eye-to-eye with on here (eg @numbertwelve, @Stuartinromford and others) describe themselves as centre right and/or more naturally Tory than Labour.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJ1LG08ssaM0 -
Lol!!Heathener said:
They’re treading very carefully this side of the election.megasaur said:
Forcefully stated, but I think Streeting's remarks yesterday signalled a real determination not to get bogged down in that, as you put it, shitmalcolmg said:
Any idiot trying to push Trans shit again will be out on their arse and deservedly so.Heathener said:
This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.Casino_Royale said:
Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
But it’s also important to note that it won’t be a Government’s priority because other things matter sooooooooooooooooo much more to people.
It will just be by quiet osmosis that people who wish to identify that way will not be bashed for doing so by a party hell-bent on Nastiness at every turn.
We’ll move on. A kinder, more gentle, caring, society. I notice it already in fact in the number of people smiling and saying hello to others. Cars stopping to allow people to cross the road. It’s as if a giant burden has already been lifted from the nation’s shoulders and we can breathe and smile again.
1 -
Aberdeenshire North and Moray EastGhedebrav said:
What’s your constituency?RochdalePioneers said:A fun* day our shooting video for social media. Now a pile of editing to do.
Met my Labour opponent! Nice guy, not from the constituency, doesn't sound like he is running a campaign.1 -
Indeed. There is no such thing.BartholomewRoberts said:
There's no such thing as a "tide of history".Casino_Royale said:
The last year or so has shown that tide crashing into a number of immovable objects, and then moving out again.Heathener said:
In the next few years those of us still alive will look back on the reactionary right’s shibboleths and wonder how we ended up there.malcolmg said:
Any idiot trying to push Trans shit again will be out on their arse and deservedly so.Heathener said:
This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.Casino_Royale said:
Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
You’ll not stop the tide of history. Same happened with gay rights. You’re on the lost side. Just a question of time.
Sometimes things are a good idea, like gay rights.
Other time things are a bad idea, like Paedophile Information Exchange.
Treating trans people with respect is a good idea.
Treating women with disrespect is a bad idea.0 -
The high feed-in tariffs will be from the old scheme that existed when solar panels were a lot more expensive, and the tariffs were reduced as the panels became cheaper, and I believe don't exist for new installations.Luckyguy1983 said:Interesting Twitter thread that my attention has been drawn to:
https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1789201786340884797
"In the UK, renewables are subsidised by three different schemes. Feed-in-Tariffs fund mostly solar power. The latest report for 2022-23 shows the average total payment was >£190/MWh, about 3X the current cost of gas-fired power."
So though we're continually being told that renewables, especially wind, have become cheaper than gas, we're actually paying 3 times the amount for renewable energy than we are for gas, and that includes carbon payments.
This will go up even more when the higher guaranteed price that the Government had to dangle in-front of wind providers to get them to actually bid in the most recent round of auctions feeds into the system. If wind is so cheap, why did we need to increase the price paid by 70%?
One for @BartholomewRoberts to ponder.
So the scheme provides direct evidence of the technology becoming cheaper over time, and the subsidies being removed as a result.
What's your problem exactly?3 -
yes I do fear this ,not least because if you take me as an always Tory voter in general elections (sometimes digress in other ones) it will be the first time I am not going to this time - I even voted for the tories in 1997 and 2001 . I am voting Reform this time and there must be many others like me . In the past loyal tory voters like me have guaranteed 30% and hence 200 seats ish . Not anymoreCasino_Royale said:
That's my argument too. In fact, there's a national interest argument.maxh said:
I disagree. I think however bad this Tory campaign is, plenty of sensible people will be convinced by the line that Labour's victory is assured, but it's your duty to vote for good local constituency MPs to give the Tories a base to rebuild from. Hell I am convinced by that line and have never voted Tory.Cleitophon said:
I don't see that happening.... I see the tory campaign collapsing completely. It will limp to July 4th at best. Sunak thought a 6 week campaign would reveal labour. It is going to expose the void at the heart of the party. Yet another rookie mistake. It doesn't take an Andy Marr to see they are flailing and totally disorganized without the stamina for a long fight.Andy_JS said:My hunch is the Tories will win a minimum of 30% and 200 seats. The only problem is there's no sign of them moving towards 30% in the opinion polls at the moment.
That's what my parents are doing - I think the cultural jump towards voting Labour or abstaining is just too great for at least 20-25% of the country.
Having zero Tory MPs in the Commons is a bad idea. And I'd have said the same if it looked like the Conservatives would get 500 MPs and wipe out Labour too.
If nothing else it leads to bad governance, internal factionalism, corruption and abuse, and can actually accelerate a party's decline rather than prolong its period in office and its legacy.0 -
It's where the money is, not necessarily the punters' money but various moneybags with a line to push (cf GB News).carnforth said:
One more: the former editor of the UK lad mag Stuff is now one of Fox News' top pundits:Theuniondivvie said:
Not much distance to travel to the edgelord populist right for him.kyf_100 said:
Wasn't a certain Spectator writer formerly of this parish also a writer for lads mags in the 90s?Stuartinromford said:
Martin Daubney went from Loaded/FHM to being a Brexit MEP then jumped to Reclaim.Ghedebrav said:
Tbh I wouldn’t be suprised if (like Gavin Macinnes in the 2000s with Vice, only less so) some of the writers from that era did drift to the edgelord populist right.boulay said:…
Do you think the journalists and associated staff on Loaded are/were travellers with the Reactionary Right? If so it would appear you never picked up a copy.Heathener said:
This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.BatteryCorrectHorse said:
I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.Casino_Royale said:
Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greg_Gutfeld1 -
The advice on exit interviews that seemed sensible to me was that if they weren't willing to listen to your criticisms and suggestions when you were on the inside trying to help improve matters, they're not likely to be particularly receptive when you're on the way out of the door, so don't try to use them to tell the company anything. (But then I've only left one company, and they were well aware that the primary cause of their retention issues was having difficulties with being able to pay people, so it didn't seem necessary to emphasize that point...)Casino_Royale said:
I was only recently tipped off by some friends who work in HR that exit interviews aren't really to do with feedback for the company.boulay said:
Nothing like an exit interview to help each party do things better in the future.DougSeal said:
Back in the early 2000s a friend of mine tried to split up from her boyfriend by email. She believed the recall function did just that and sent a variety of different versions of said missive, thinking she had recalled the earlier drafts. He laughed at her in the restaurant where the breakup was finalised that evening, read each version back to her, before ordering desert. He was a cast iron heartless shit.JosiasJessop said:
When the pay of everyone in the company was sent out as an attachment. Those of us on a POP3/SMTP setup got to see it as the recall did not work.rkrkrk said:Ex colleague of mine told me as a junior consultant he once sent sensitive details of a merger to entire office by accident - everyone had to sign some legal docs in a rush because of him.
Anyone else got horror stories they care to share?
Also - and not a recall issue - at another place HR sent out a list of project codewords, including the status. Which told a few people their project was to be canned as it was in the 'cancelled' section...
They are about understanding if you might have a case against them, and an opportunity to get your statement on their record which helps them - just in case you do.
I must admit I thought that unduly cynical. If lots of people are leaving and all saying the same thing any sensible company will want to know why, but I've also been advised to be as positive and constructive as possible- because how you act when leaving is how your brand will be judged.
2 -
There've been rumbles about this already, ever since he published his suspiciously-lacking-in-detail UK tax return.megasaur said:
Sunak will implode and the party with him. I'm predicting Where He Will Live If He Loses will become a big issue - ironically, because who gives a toss? But it is an easy attack line especially after Akshata's non dom wriggles. And the I want to stay here to support my team line is phony even for him.Heathener said:
You could be right Robert. History would support your kind of assessment.rcs1000 said:The Conservative Party will outperform expectations on 4 July, and will get more than 200 seats. The LibDems will more than double their seat count, and will do rather better in terms of vote share than the current polls predict, but will miss out on a dozen seats by small margins. The SNP will hold on to their number two spot, getting around 30 seats. And Labour will manage an inverse of 2019, achieving a majority of around 80.
You heard it here first.
However, I don’t think it’s based on reading the room. (At the moment.)
It now seems almost certain that he's been paying tax in the US too - but why? If he's truly a UK domiciled UK citizen, why wouldn't he just fill in a W8-BEN like everyone else who owns shares or property or other sources of income in the US?
The only possible reason is that he actually does have US citizenship, or that he hasn't given up his green card after all.
Labour have been plugging away at this, asking a question about it every couple of weeks at PMQs and the like. I wonder if it might prove to be a bit of a bombshell later in the election campaign.2 -
That we're using cheap, domestically produced, British energy.LostPassword said:
The high feed-in tariffs will be from the old scheme that existed when solar panels were a lot more expensive, and the tariffs were reduced as the panels became cheaper, and I believe don't exist for new installations.Luckyguy1983 said:Interesting Twitter thread that my attention has been drawn to:
https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1789201786340884797
"In the UK, renewables are subsidised by three different schemes. Feed-in-Tariffs fund mostly solar power. The latest report for 2022-23 shows the average total payment was >£190/MWh, about 3X the current cost of gas-fired power."
So though we're continually being told that renewables, especially wind, have become cheaper than gas, we're actually paying 3 times the amount for renewable energy than we are for gas, and that includes carbon payments.
This will go up even more when the higher guaranteed price that the Government had to dangle in-front of wind providers to get them to actually bid in the most recent round of auctions feeds into the system. If wind is so cheap, why did we need to increase the price paid by 70%?
One for @BartholomewRoberts to ponder.
So the scene provides direct evidence of the technology becoming cheaper over time, and the subsidies being removed as a result.
What's your problem exactly?
He'd be much happier if we were paying more money to Putin for gas.0 -
What the Conservatives will actually have is a very elderly, extremely right wing membership and the shattered remnants of the Parliamentary party, both very sore and hurt at being rejected and utterly convinced that the failure was down to insufficient indulgence of their own prejudices. The Conservative Party may need to go through a repetition of its lengthy post-1997 detoxification process - attempting to foist a succession of unpalatable hardline figures on an unwilling public - before getting tired and bored of losing, swallowing their distaste and electing a Cameron-type leader.Clutch_Brompton said:Do you remember when the Cons were going to fight the GE on the economy? Seems so long ago now but it was just last week! Wonder what they'll replace the National Service canard with at the end of the week.
There are going to have to be a lot of reforms and a total change of personnel before the Cons can hope to be an effective opposition.
Caveat: if Labour fails to deliver and the fed-up electorate directs its rage towards them, the Tories could be back a lot more quickly. The electoral system leaves us with only two genuine choices of governing party, so rejecting one necessarily means choosing the other.2 -
Interesting info on Lab safe seats last minute NEC scramble:
@Tomorrow'sMPs
@tomorrowsmps
·
1h
🔴 And our old friend, arch-fixer Luke Akehurst, the right-wing NEC member who has chaired many candidate panels, is also due to get a good seat. When I've asked him about this publicly he's not denied it, but helpfully reminded me how he stood for Parliament back in 2005.
https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/17951301291332487790 -
Seems odd that R&W have been releasing polls every Monday for years and now we've reached the general election they stop?wooliedyed said:
Nope, they ain't giving no damn clues!GIN1138 said:No Redfield and Wilton poll today?
0 -
I managed that on a hotspot connection on the M6 once, so you've no excuse if you need it up sitting at a desk.SandyRentool said:
Jumping between the main Teams meeting chat and the side banter with a colleague is a potential source of disaster. So far, so good, but I just know that I'll drop a bollock one day.Ghedebrav said:
There but for the grace of God; the closest I’ve got is posting vaguely banterish between-friends stuff in more professional channels (e.g. on Teams/Whatsapp) but tbh the easiest thing there is just immediately front out with a ‘whoops, that wasn’t for here!’.rkrkrk said:Ex colleague of mine told me as a junior consultant he once sent sensitive details of a merger to entire office by accident - everyone had to sign some legal docs in a rush because of him.
Anyone else got horror stories they care to share?
I feel terrible when I see it happen. Well, terrible, seasoned with a couple of turns of the revelling-in-chaotic-malice mill.0 -
They might have scheduled it for tomorrow due to the Bank Holiday?GIN1138 said:
Seems odd that R&W have been releasing polls every Monday for years and now we've reached the general election they stop?wooliedyed said:
Nope, they ain't giving no damn clues!GIN1138 said:No Redfield and Wilton poll today?
1 -
ANAME PioneerRochdalePioneers said:
Aberdeenshire North and Moray EastGhedebrav said:
What’s your constituency?RochdalePioneers said:A fun* day our shooting video for social media. Now a pile of editing to do.
Met my Labour opponent! Nice guy, not from the constituency, doesn't sound like he is running a campaign.2 -
Do you think you will Buckie the trend, or are you Cullen the result now? Are your cairns bulging and will you be celebrating with a hearty rose? Are you Pennan your victory speech?RochdalePioneers said:
Aberdeenshire North and Moray EastGhedebrav said:
What’s your constituency?RochdalePioneers said:A fun* day our shooting video for social media. Now a pile of editing to do.
Met my Labour opponent! Nice guy, not from the constituency, doesn't sound like he is running a campaign.3 -
Could Labour be coming for your pensions ?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/private-pensions/labour-coming-for-pension-freedoms/0 -
Well they never bothered about bank holidays before, lol. But maybe. Guess we'll find out tomorrow?BartholomewRoberts said:
They might have scheduled it for tomorrow due to the Bank Holiday?GIN1138 said:
Seems odd that R&W have been releasing polls every Monday for years and now we've reached the general election they stop?wooliedyed said:
Nope, they ain't giving no damn clues!GIN1138 said:No Redfield and Wilton poll today?
0 -
You seem to shimmy from solar in one paragraph to wind in the next as if they were the same thing. Looking at the yield on my Greencoat shares, I think any overpayment on the latter is ending up in the right hands.Luckyguy1983 said:Interesting Twitter thread that my attention has been drawn to:
https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1789201786340884797
"In the UK, renewables are subsidised by three different schemes. Feed-in-Tariffs fund mostly solar power. The latest report for 2022-23 shows the average total payment was >£190/MWh, about 3X the current cost of gas-fired power."
So though we're continually being told that renewables, especially wind, have become cheaper than gas, we're actually paying 3 times the amount for renewable energy than we are for gas, and that includes carbon payments.
This will go up even more when the higher guaranteed price that the Government had to dangle in-front of wind providers to get them to actually bid in the most recent round of auctions feeds into the system. If wind is so cheap, why did we need to increase the price paid by 70%?
One for @BartholomewRoberts to ponder.0 -
yes I am looking at drawing the tax free element of mine before any labour budget for this reasonTaz said:Could Labour be coming for your pensions ?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/private-pensions/labour-coming-for-pension-freedoms/0 -
Very likely. Pensions, VAT and ISAs haven't been "pledged" and are natural targets for additional taxation, and a significant tightening of allowances and tax relief.Taz said:Could Labour be coming for your pensions ?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/private-pensions/labour-coming-for-pension-freedoms/
I note they haven't pledged to freeze Council Tax either.1 -
Could the Telegraph be trying to nudge older voters away from voting Labour?Taz said:Could Labour be coming for your pensions ?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/private-pensions/labour-coming-for-pension-freedoms/
3 -
Have all the pollsters been called up for National Service?3
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I found myself rewatching Series 1 of House of Cards again last night - US not UK, the latter being before my time.
If you can get past the question marks surrounding Kevin Spacey then I’d forgotten just what a fantastic piece of political drama it is, especially in the early stages.
All the Machiavellian chthonic depths of political life right there.
Perfect viewing for an election campaign 4 -
Same here. I had wanted to leave it. But I think I will have to pull that forward.state_go_away said:
yes I am looking at drawing the tax free element of mine before any labour budget for this reasonTaz said:Could Labour be coming for your pensions ?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/private-pensions/labour-coming-for-pension-freedoms/0 -
I don't think Telegraph readers need much of a nudge not to vote Labour.pm215 said:
Could the Telegraph be trying to nudge older voters away from voting Labour?Taz said:Could Labour be coming for your pensions ?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/private-pensions/labour-coming-for-pension-freedoms/3 -
Yep. Then retirement age 70. And it will destroy them.Taz said:Could Labour be coming for your pensions ?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/private-pensions/labour-coming-for-pension-freedoms/
It's Reeves' wet dream stuff0 -
The readership is more Labour than Tory:Northern_Al said:
I don't think Telegraph readers need much of a nudge not to vote Labour.pm215 said:
Could the Telegraph be trying to nudge older voters away from voting Labour?Taz said:Could Labour be coming for your pensions ?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/private-pensions/labour-coming-for-pension-freedoms/
https://unherd.com/newsroom/daily-mail-is-now-the-only-newspaper-with-a-tory-readership/1 -
Michael Crick
@MichaelLCrick
🔴 One has to ask how Labour will handle peerages and government appointments if this is how the party's National Executive operates before they've even won power.
https://x.com/MichaelLCrick/status/17951460328561215820 -
I expect a removal of the higher rate tax relief for top earners in a pension pot as a minimum as well as further taxes on capital gains and interest.Casino_Royale said:
Very likely. Pensions, VAT and ISAs haven't been "pledged" and are natural targets for additional taxation, and a significant tightening of allowances and tax relief.Taz said:Could Labour be coming for your pensions ?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/private-pensions/labour-coming-for-pension-freedoms/
I note they haven't pledged to freeze Council Tax either.
Remove the 5% cap on council tax increases I also expect.
The Tories have been the party of high tax. Labour are about to rinse middle earners.0 -
I did.maxh said:
True, but you must also have noticed the echoes of Tate's messaging amongst some in that group recently.dixiedean said:
I spend most of my working life with lots of young, uneducated white men.Cleitophon said:
Young uneducated white men don't have the numbers... not by a long shot. I was going for a completely different kind of centre right: progressive and pro-eu. That is where the sustainable numbers are.maxh said:
Which suggests the next iteration of the Tory party might build from some of the 'new right': younger, harder edged, less globalist, very anti-woke. Proud Boys/Yaxley-Lennon might provide a model.Cleitophon said:
Same could be said of the average tory and reform member.. they are old.... the whole right has no demographic future.... also it is spent as a political movement. All its energies gone. The age of the millenial is upon us. They will dominate for the next 30 years.TheValiant said:
Corbyn is now 75 years old.AlsoLei said:Islington North Update
In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.
No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.
I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.
My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.
I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....
Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
Alternatively they return to centrist Dad territory to tempt back those who are currently Labour. I've been surprised by the number of people I generally see eye-to-eye with on here (eg @numbertwelve, @Stuartinromford and others) describe themselves as centre right and/or more naturally Tory than Labour.
Màny of them are so woke they'd cause apoplexy on this site.
Admittedly it was a bit of a bubble that has now burst, but we had quite a bit of it in school.
Notwithstanding that, I agree with @Cleitophon and @Ghedebrav that the numbers are small.
But the majority thought Tate to be a massive asshat.1 -
Council Tax needs to be significantly increased. It would still be cheaper than constant car suspension repairs due to potholes, the effects on children of underfunded schools, or shortage of care home places.Casino_Royale said:
Very likely. Pensions, VAT and ISAs haven't been "pledged" and are natural targets for additional taxation, and a significant tightening of allowances and tax relief.Taz said:Could Labour be coming for your pensions ?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/private-pensions/labour-coming-for-pension-freedoms/
I note they haven't pledged to freeze Council Tax either.4 -
Does anyone doubt that Netanyahu and his thugs are irredeemable monsters who don't care a fig for any life that doesn't belong to an Israeli?
Channel 4 News is unwatchable
https://x.com/johncusack/status/17949239526382473161 -
Ok thanks - good luck!RochdalePioneers said:
Aberdeenshire North and Moray EastGhedebrav said:
What’s your constituency?RochdalePioneers said:A fun* day our shooting video for social media. Now a pile of editing to do.
Met my Labour opponent! Nice guy, not from the constituency, doesn't sound like he is running a campaign.
Can’t be many longer constituency names than that.2 -
It is but its a complete copy of the UK version which was sublimeHeathener said:I found myself rewatching Series 1 of House of Cards again last night - US not UK, the latter being before my time.
If you can get past the question marks surrounding Kevin Spacey then I’d forgotten just what a fantastic piece of political drama it is, especially in the early stages.
All the Machiavellian chthonic depths of political life right there.
Perfect viewing for an election campaign3
