Forget the campaign, the curse of Harry Kane could have a bigger impact on th – politicalbetting.com

Andy_Cooke said:

With all the reading the runes and analysis of the whys and wherefores over Sunak calling the election now, part of me wonders if it's really simple and was telegraphed last autumn:

https://x.com/cazjwheeler/status/1708189787377525139?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1708189787377525139|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=

[i]BREAKING: Jeremy Hunt has been caught in a secret recording during a private meeting with Tory activists suggesting that Sunak will call a general election once inflation has fallen below three per cent - giving the strongest hint yet that a poll will be held next autumn.
7:39 PM · Sep 30, 2023
·
1.8M
Views[/I]

What if Sunak had a simple trigger that he'd decided upon several months ago - one where he (having been Chancellor and deep in his spreadsheets) assumed he was addressing the single greatest issue that people genuinely have?

Because as it turns out, nearly eight months after that tweet, he pulled the trigger the day that inflation was announced below three percent.

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

wooliedyed said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Sunak's approval ratings have ticked up since the campaign started. Still early days but one to watch.

I still think it will be a Labour victory but I am still not yet ready to decide between that being a Hung Parliament up to a landslide.

Its an artefact of the disengaged becoming engaged. A lot of the disinterested and DKs were Con leaning types.
Labour will win. I think nearly 100 majority with 50 to 150 my 'range' at the moment

Why do you think it will be so large? Can you explain your workings?

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Sunak's approval ratings have ticked up since the campaign started. Still early days but one to watch.

I still think it will be a Labour victory but I am still not yet ready to decide between that being a Hung Parliament up to a landslide.

Its an artefact of the disengaged becoming engaged. A lot of the disinterested and DKs were Con leaning types.
Labour will win. I think nearly 100 majority with 50 to 150 my 'range' at the moment

YouGov latest data here:

https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_240524_W.pdf

The case for Tories doing much better than expected in embedded in the data:

Of the 2019 Tory voters 41% plan to vote Tory, and 19% each for Reform and DK, totalling 38%.

If only a third of these people can switch from Reform and DK to Tory, than the Tories are on 33%. If events turn a little against Labour and they drop just 3 points, to 41% we are in line for a result that is not a disaster for the Tories.

This should not be regarded as out of the question. Those who pay no attention to politics are just warming up the valves on their medium wave radiograms for the first time sine Boris was in charge.

TheValiant said:

Andy_Cooke said:

With all the reading the runes and analysis of the whys and wherefores over Sunak calling the election now, part of me wonders if it's really simple and was telegraphed last autumn:

https://x.com/cazjwheeler/status/1708189787377525139?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1708189787377525139|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=

[i]BREAKING: Jeremy Hunt has been caught in a secret recording during a private meeting with Tory activists suggesting that Sunak will call a general election once inflation has fallen below three per cent - giving the strongest hint yet that a poll will be held next autumn.
7:39 PM · Sep 30, 2023
·
1.8M
Views[/I]

What if Sunak had a simple trigger that he'd decided upon several months ago - one where he (having been Chancellor and deep in his spreadsheets) assumed he was addressing the single greatest issue that people genuinely have?

Because as it turns out, nearly eight months after that tweet, he pulled the trigger the day that inflation was announced below three percent.

He might well have done, but then part of me wonders what would have happened if inflation hadn't been below 3% this month, but fell below 3% at the end of June. Would he really have called an election for Thursday 1st August? Would he have been happy getting zero votes for wrecking everyone's summer holiday?

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Sunak's approval ratings have ticked up since the campaign started. Still early days but one to watch.

I still think it will be a Labour victory but I am still not yet ready to decide between that being a Hung Parliament up to a landslide.

Its an artefact of the disengaged becoming engaged. A lot of the disinterested and DKs were Con leaning types.
Labour will win. I think nearly 100 majority with 50 to 150 my 'range' at the moment

YouGov latest data here:

https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_240524_W.pdf

The case for Tories doing much better than expected in embedded in the data:

Of the 2019 Tory voters 41% plan to vote Tory, and 19% each for Reform and DK, totalling 38%.

If only a third of these people can switch from Reform and DK to Tory, than the Tories are on 33%. If events turn a little against Labour and they drop just 3 points, to 41% we are in line for a result that is not a disaster for the Tories.

This should not be regarded as out of the question. Those who pay no attention to politics are just warming up the valves on their medium wave radiograms for the first time sine Boris was in charge.

This feels a bit like what I used to say prior to 2019 that the Labour voters would come back. They never did.

noneoftheabove said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Labour leader has made a habit of hosting campaign visits at lower league football clubs.

He was at Gillingham Football Club in Kent on day one of campaigning earlier this week. Today we’ve been at Stafford Rangers FC, who are in the Northern Premier League, Premier Division.

It’s a very deliberate campaign decision, a senior Labour figure tells me.

There are mundane practical reasons – it’s a ready-made venue with seating for an event. Visually it’s also very clear where you are (usually because there’s a whopping great sign in the background – in this case ‘Stafford Rangers’.) So when local people see the pictures on TV, they know Starmer has been in their patch.

But the party is also trying to promote the image of Sir Keir Starmer as a football-loving, ordinary bloke.

And the reason it’s often lower league clubs? Mainly, the senior Labour source tells me, it’s because the bigger premier league clubs are in cities where Labour are already confident they will win.

Their campaign is focused on smaller towns – parliamentary seats like Stafford that they need to take off the Conservatives in order to win a majority.

Not sure that holds for Man Utd fans, Surrey is a Tory/LD fight, not safe Labour.

CarlottaVance said:

EXCLUSIVE: Labour has re-branded its flagship package of workers rights and employment reforms.

The New Deal will now be known as Labour's Plan To Make Work Pay

Starmer wants to sharpen core message of putting money in people's pockets and reassure business

https://x.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1794299971878912269

dixiedean said:

@algarkirk raises an interesting question as to what constitutes a "disaster" for the Tories?
He's calling 41-33 not to be.
But I make that a Lab majority of c. 84.
That's a 2019 style result reversed.
Would that be seen as a disaster or not?
It was for Labour.
Even if it is currently something of a mountain to climb to even get there. And probably a result that many Tories would be secretly relieved at.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Eabhal said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

DavidL said:

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Casino_Royale said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jonathan said:

Why are the Tories talking about unfunded tax cuts for the wealthy? Do they think it’s an electoral win to resurrect Trussonomics? They should steer well clear from bold taxation moves. It undermines the core offer of Sunak and Hunt.

Such a confusing message.

£100k cliffedge is easy to change without costing anything. You can just change thresholds.

Bad optics. They should steer well clear.

Fuck the optics. The £100k cliffedge is a disaster that has serious real-world economic and productivity impacts.

The fact that everything in politics is about "optics" is one of our biggest problems.

Real leaders lead.

This was a party political broadcast by the Liz Truss Party.

Again, a silly little remark trying to play it for laughs rather than engage in the substance.

Even Nick Palmer ex-MP - who is pretty left-wing, let's remember - agrees this is an issue and regrets his part in bringing it in. Which was also about "optics".

Truss didn't propose to remove the 100k tax trap. It's one of the biggest marks against her 6 weeks in office, because she was also going for "optics" but of a different kind.

Politics is all about priorities and context. Making a feature of tax thresholds for the well off (however poorly designed) is not good politics today. It’s the sort of thing you do in budgets not election campaigns. You have to care about how policies are interpreted. As soon as you say 100k you’re on the defensive having to explain it.

It should be a priority. We elect our politicians to understand public opinion and then to lead it in the best interests of the country. Lots of people are now deliberately choosing jobs or working hours to avoid this tax-trap and it's sapping our productivity as a result. Even I've thought about giving up at times as I'm right in the middle of it.

On the "well-off" point here's one for you: the 2009 budget introduced the 100k cliff edge from April 2010, just before that election. That's 100k in 2010 pounds.

Do you know what that's worth today, inflation-adjusted for 2024?

£65,000.

A figure that most voters would dream of, that’s your political problem. Take a look at the household income distribution if you do not believe me.

Somewhere along the line conservatives forgot how to do politics. You need people to vote for you.

No, a level that many civil servants, GPs, consultants, head teachers, solicitors, businessmen and professionals now easily reach - they'd laugh at you calling them super-rich. You are hitting the successful middle-class.

But, your comment is very revealing.

It's very clear that under a Labour government your taxes will only be going in one direction: up.

Check out where a salary of 100k puts you on the income distribution. You’ll be surprised.

Now a salary of 65k.

Labour = taxes up

I don't think people have really figured out just how much the inflation of the past 3 years has effected things.

I was talking to an academic at a top university the other day and they said they are really struggling to get PhD students. I said Brexit? And he said, a bit, but stipend is the biggest problem. Its £18.5k outside of London. They said when they did their PhD their stipend in todays money would be £27k. Up until 3 years ago, yes stipends had fallen behind, I think they said it would have been about £20k in 2018 money, but equivalent of £7k inflated away.

Same with post-docs, their money is £20k below what it used to be in real times from 20 years ago.

Yes, totally agree. Allowances are sticky and take a long time to catch-up.

I struggle to find compliant hotels within my company's expenses policy when I travel for work, now, except Travelodges etc.

Net effect? I can't find staff who are willing to travel to do client work.

Yes hotels prices are crazy these days. Pre-pandemic, £100-150 could get your a half decent room in most places. Now we are talking £200-300 easy. I think I did £1000 in expenses on a 2 night trip overseas trip to Europe and it was literally just working and sleeping with some quick stops for pretty normal meals inbetween.

Being self employed my overnights come out of what I earn. Up until COVID I could get a late B&B package at a decent hotel ( I used Eastwood Hall for my Nottingham and Derby trips) for less than fifty quid. Prices are such that an overnight to the East Midlands is better served coming home and starting early the following day. Fifty quid in diesel being cheaper than £150 plus for an overnight stop.

I have just paid £460 for 4 nights in really awful accommodation in Glasgow, not even any hot water. I am getting £320 back from my employer but that still leaves me quite significantly out of pocket. Which, if I had been living it up would be fair enough but even basic accommodation is no longer within the allowances.

Back in the day, for £500 could buy your half of Glasgow....

Has it really got that expensive even in Glasgow? I haven't been for about 10 years, but I stayed in Raddison Blu and I don't think it cost me that for a week.

Yes, as others have pointed out hotel accommodation has had much higher inflation than most things since Covid. Getting even a modest hotel in Edinburgh room only for less than £150 a night is getting increasingly hard.

Not sure what is driving this. Minimum wage increases will have played a part but I begin to suspect some cartel activity.

Isn't it just a reflection of what's happened to land and property prices in general?

Free the market and house prices and hotel prices would come down, as construction happens, but if you spend decades banning construction in an era of growing population and growing numbers of households* then property prices surge and if property is expensive it makes not just owning a home or renting a home expensive it makes letting one so too.

Why let a room to someone for cheap for a night when you can let it to someone for a high rent for months instead?

* Demographics mean there's more singles or couples living alone than ever before as we have more old people than ever before whose children (and often grandchildren) live in their own home.

Scotland - Our population grew by only 2.7% over the last 10 years. Despite this, our house prices have actually increased faster than they have in England.

Edinburgh is different with massive pressure from students and tourists. There is an enormous amount of contruction going on (including the infamous Turd Hotel - a stunning example of no planning restrictions whatsoever).

A crackdown on STLs (there were 10,000 airbnbs operating at one point) is probably the reason why hotel bed prices have gone up. As you say, the market will likely respond with more hotels - assuming it's a free one.

Your idea that letting a room long term is more attractive than short term is spectacularly wrong in Edinburgh.

Again repeating the fallacy that population change is all that matters even after the fallacy was called out. 🙄

How has Scotland's demographics changed over that time?

Benpointer said:

Thames Water tests for vomiting bug contamination as families fall sick

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/25/thames-water-vomiting-bug-cryptosporidium

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

dixiedean said:

@algarkirk raises an interesting question as to what constitutes a "disaster" for the Tories?
He's calling 41-33 not to be.
But I make that a Lab majority of c. 84.
That's a 2019 style result reversed.
Would that be seen as a disaster or not?
It was for Labour.
Even if it is currently something of a mountain to climb to even get there. And probably a result that many Tories would be secretly relieved at.

I saw some polling the other day that said Labour would win a majority with a 5 point lead because of how efficient their vote is. I am sceptical of it myself but ultimately it won't be important what the margin is, it will be if Labour wins a majority.

If Labour wins a majority, it will be hailed as a success and Keir Starmer will feel triumphant. It won't last but he'll probably get a polling boost post the election.

Benpointer said:

Thames Water tests for vomiting bug contamination as families fall sick

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/25/thames-water-vomiting-bug-cryptosporidium

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Benpointer said:

Thames Water tests for vomiting bug contamination as families fall sick

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/25/thames-water-vomiting-bug-cryptosporidium

We talk about black swans killing Labour but is there not an outside chance of a black swan involving water killing the Tory party?

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

dixiedean said:

@algarkirk raises an interesting question as to what constitutes a "disaster" for the Tories?
He's calling 41-33 not to be.
But I make that a Lab majority of c. 84.
That's a 2019 style result reversed.
Would that be seen as a disaster or not?
It was for Labour.
Even if it is currently something of a mountain to climb to even get there. And probably a result that many Tories would be secretly relieved at.

I saw some polling the other day that said Labour would win a majority with a 5 point lead because of how efficient their vote is. I am sceptical of it myself but ultimately it won't be important what the margin is, it will be if Labour wins a majority.

If Labour wins a majority, it will be hailed as a success and Keir Starmer will feel triumphant. It won't last but he'll probably get a polling boost post the election.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Andy_Cooke said:

With all the reading the runes and analysis of the whys and wherefores over Sunak calling the election now, part of me wonders if it's really simple and was telegraphed last autumn:

https://x.com/cazjwheeler/status/1708189787377525139?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1708189787377525139|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=

[i]BREAKING: Jeremy Hunt has been caught in a secret recording during a private meeting with Tory activists suggesting that Sunak will call a general election once inflation has fallen below three per cent - giving the strongest hint yet that a poll will be held next autumn.
7:39 PM · Sep 30, 2023
·
1.8M
Views[/I]

What if Sunak had a simple trigger that he'd decided upon several months ago - one where he (having been Chancellor and deep in his spreadsheets) assumed he was addressing the single greatest issue that people genuinely have?

Because as it turns out, nearly eight months after that tweet, he pulled the trigger the day that inflation was announced below three percent.

I concluded much the same. I think he's been waiting for that number. If it had happened in April he'd have gone then.

It is daft to be triggered by an inflation rate because voters in shops across the land are weighing up the pound in their pocket against the number on the shelf, and not sitting at home and watching the news to see if it will be Heinz or own-brand ketchup this week. And the BoE MPC can't react to fallen inflation because they are in purdah because Rishi called the election.

bookseller said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Eabhal said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

DavidL said:

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Casino_Royale said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jonathan said:

Why are the Tories talking about unfunded tax cuts for the wealthy? Do they think it’s an electoral win to resurrect Trussonomics? They should steer well clear from bold taxation moves. It undermines the core offer of Sunak and Hunt.

Such a confusing message.

£100k cliffedge is easy to change without costing anything. You can just change thresholds.

Bad optics. They should steer well clear.

Fuck the optics. The £100k cliffedge is a disaster that has serious real-world economic and productivity impacts.

The fact that everything in politics is about "optics" is one of our biggest problems.

Real leaders lead.

This was a party political broadcast by the Liz Truss Party.

Again, a silly little remark trying to play it for laughs rather than engage in the substance.

Even Nick Palmer ex-MP - who is pretty left-wing, let's remember - agrees this is an issue and regrets his part in bringing it in. Which was also about "optics".

Truss didn't propose to remove the 100k tax trap. It's one of the biggest marks against her 6 weeks in office, because she was also going for "optics" but of a different kind.

Politics is all about priorities and context. Making a feature of tax thresholds for the well off (however poorly designed) is not good politics today. It’s the sort of thing you do in budgets not election campaigns. You have to care about how policies are interpreted. As soon as you say 100k you’re on the defensive having to explain it.

It should be a priority. We elect our politicians to understand public opinion and then to lead it in the best interests of the country. Lots of people are now deliberately choosing jobs or working hours to avoid this tax-trap and it's sapping our productivity as a result. Even I've thought about giving up at times as I'm right in the middle of it.

On the "well-off" point here's one for you: the 2009 budget introduced the 100k cliff edge from April 2010, just before that election. That's 100k in 2010 pounds.

Do you know what that's worth today, inflation-adjusted for 2024?

£65,000.

A figure that most voters would dream of, that’s your political problem. Take a look at the household income distribution if you do not believe me.

Somewhere along the line conservatives forgot how to do politics. You need people to vote for you.

No, a level that many civil servants, GPs, consultants, head teachers, solicitors, businessmen and professionals now easily reach - they'd laugh at you calling them super-rich. You are hitting the successful middle-class.

But, your comment is very revealing.

It's very clear that under a Labour government your taxes will only be going in one direction: up.

Check out where a salary of 100k puts you on the income distribution. You’ll be surprised.

Now a salary of 65k.

Labour = taxes up

I don't think people have really figured out just how much the inflation of the past 3 years has effected things.

I was talking to an academic at a top university the other day and they said they are really struggling to get PhD students. I said Brexit? And he said, a bit, but stipend is the biggest problem. Its £18.5k outside of London. They said when they did their PhD their stipend in todays money would be £27k. Up until 3 years ago, yes stipends had fallen behind, I think they said it would have been about £20k in 2018 money, but equivalent of £7k inflated away.

Same with post-docs, their money is £20k below what it used to be in real times from 20 years ago.

Yes, totally agree. Allowances are sticky and take a long time to catch-up.

I struggle to find compliant hotels within my company's expenses policy when I travel for work, now, except Travelodges etc.

Net effect? I can't find staff who are willing to travel to do client work.

Yes hotels prices are crazy these days. Pre-pandemic, £100-150 could get your a half decent room in most places. Now we are talking £200-300 easy. I think I did £1000 in expenses on a 2 night trip overseas trip to Europe and it was literally just working and sleeping with some quick stops for pretty normal meals inbetween.

Being self employed my overnights come out of what I earn. Up until COVID I could get a late B&B package at a decent hotel ( I used Eastwood Hall for my Nottingham and Derby trips) for less than fifty quid. Prices are such that an overnight to the East Midlands is better served coming home and starting early the following day. Fifty quid in diesel being cheaper than £150 plus for an overnight stop.

I have just paid £460 for 4 nights in really awful accommodation in Glasgow, not even any hot water. I am getting £320 back from my employer but that still leaves me quite significantly out of pocket. Which, if I had been living it up would be fair enough but even basic accommodation is no longer within the allowances.

Back in the day, for £500 could buy your half of Glasgow....

Has it really got that expensive even in Glasgow? I haven't been for about 10 years, but I stayed in Raddison Blu and I don't think it cost me that for a week.

Yes, as others have pointed out hotel accommodation has had much higher inflation than most things since Covid. Getting even a modest hotel in Edinburgh room only for less than £150 a night is getting increasingly hard.

Not sure what is driving this. Minimum wage increases will have played a part but I begin to suspect some cartel activity.

Isn't it just a reflection of what's happened to land and property prices in general?

Free the market and house prices and hotel prices would come down, as construction happens, but if you spend decades banning construction in an era of growing population and growing numbers of households* then property prices surge and if property is expensive it makes not just owning a home or renting a home expensive it makes letting one so too.

Why let a room to someone for cheap for a night when you can let it to someone for a high rent for months instead?

* Demographics mean there's more singles or couples living alone than ever before as we have more old people than ever before whose children (and often grandchildren) live in their own home.

Scotland - Our population grew by only 2.7% over the last 10 years. Despite this, our house prices have actually increased faster than they have in England.

Edinburgh is different with massive pressure from students and tourists. There is an enormous amount of contruction going on (including the infamous Turd Hotel - a stunning example of no planning restrictions whatsoever).

A crackdown on STLs (there were 10,000 airbnbs operating at one point) is probably the reason why hotel bed prices have gone up. As you say, the market will likely respond with more hotels - assuming it's a free one.

Your idea that letting a room long term is more attractive than short term is spectacularly wrong in Edinburgh.

Again repeating the fallacy that population change is all that matters even after the fallacy was called out. 🙄

How has Scotland's demographics changed over that time?

Having just stayed in Edinburgh last week (Scottish Bookselling Conference) if you are happy to stay in what I call 'Bot Hotels' these can be cheap: everything automated, keypads, app-based and largely online and you never see anyone.

Cold, soulless. Not sure it's a future I necessarily want to think is the future. But was cheap

algarkirk said:

wooliedyed said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Sunak's approval ratings have ticked up since the campaign started. Still early days but one to watch.

I still think it will be a Labour victory but I am still not yet ready to decide between that being a Hung Parliament up to a landslide.

Its an artefact of the disengaged becoming engaged. A lot of the disinterested and DKs were Con leaning types.
Labour will win. I think nearly 100 majority with 50 to 150 my 'range' at the moment

YouGov latest data here:

https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_240524_W.pdf

The case for Tories doing much better than expected in embedded in the data:

Of the 2019 Tory voters 41% plan to vote Tory, and 19% each for Reform and DK, totalling 38%.

If only a third of these people can switch from Reform and DK to Tory, than the Tories are on 33%. If events turn a little against Labour and they drop just 3 points, to 41% we are in line for a result that is not a disaster for the Tories.

This should not be regarded as out of the question. Those who pay no attention to politics are just warming up the valves on their medium wave radiograms for the first time sine Boris was in charge.

TheValiant said:

algarkirk said:

(They are also spotting in Vennells and co that the super high paid are no more adequate than they are.)

I sometimes wonder that.

Could I be Prime Minister? Yeah, why not.
Would I be good at it? Probably not.
Would I be better than the last three holders of the office however? Quite possibly.

Suddenly makes you think that almost anyone could do the job.......

state_go_away said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

northern_monkey said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

northern_monkey said:

Totally apropos of nothing, I’ve just found out my brother-in-law’s mate’s daughter is an actor (it still feels weird to me that we don’t call people actresses or comediennes anymore, it’s an age thing I think), she moved to the States and is now married to Henry Winkler’s son.

This is like the time I found out a few years ago my sister has a third nipple. Why does nobody tell me these things?

Why don't you call them actresses - is somebody stopping you?

Nope I don’t have a gun to my head or anything, it just seems that female actors and comedians nowadays often prefer not to be referred to with a gendered term. So I try and be polite and respect that - and if that’s woke well then I’m with Kathy Burke.

But how should you refer to a male seamstress? Seammaster? That’s an expensive dive watch worn by insecure people with fragile egos.

Oh how complicated modern mores are!

Some don't like the word actress, some actively prefer it. I really can't think why you'd use a phrase you find awkward and confusing because you're concerned about some future scenario where you may upset Emma Thomson.

I think the oscars still refer to best actor and actress - They are pretty woke so if they dont feel the need then why change it

wooliedyed said:

Unite not happy with Labour's changes to the New Deal for workers, but unless they act with the £££ they've just been stitched up (again)

Foxy said:

Isn't it rather a myth that England going out of the World Cup in 1970 swung the election?

Wasn't it the gloomy economic news of rising inflation and unemployment, fear of a further devaluation and a particularly poor set of trade figures a few days before the GE?

mickydroy said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

CarlottaVance said:

EXCLUSIVE: Labour has re-branded its flagship package of workers rights and employment reforms.

The New Deal will now be known as Labour's Plan To Make Work Pay

Starmer wants to sharpen core message of putting money in people's pockets and reassure business

https://x.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1794299971878912269

Can Rishi sue for breach of copyright? Only Rishi has a plan. "Starmer has no plan, Labour will take you back to square one".

He should give them the benefit of his experience:

"I’ll tell you what happens with plans. You start with far-fetched goals. They are then pickled into a rigid dogma, a code, and you go through the months sticking to that - outdated, misplaced, irrelevant to the real needs - and you end up in the grotesque chaos of standing in the pouring rain in Downing Street, calling an election that you cannot win."

Still think Kinnock was better than he is portrayed, was treated appallingly by the right wing media, all he ever seems to be remembered is for falling in the water, done a lot of the hard yards for Blair, imo

TheValiant said:

I saw UKIP has elected a new leader, one Lois Perry earlier this month. No idea which seat she's standing in (if she even stands) yet.

I'm surprised UKIP are still going. What little I learned last night when I was glancing through the parties is that they've fallen totally into infighting and factionalism, along with some accusations of certain party members favouring other party members whilst they were dating them.

They should just pack up and either join Reform or go home.

state_go_away said:

mickydroy said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

CarlottaVance said:

EXCLUSIVE: Labour has re-branded its flagship package of workers rights and employment reforms.

The New Deal will now be known as Labour's Plan To Make Work Pay

Starmer wants to sharpen core message of putting money in people's pockets and reassure business

https://x.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1794299971878912269

Can Rishi sue for breach of copyright? Only Rishi has a plan. "Starmer has no plan, Labour will take you back to square one".

He should give them the benefit of his experience:

"I’ll tell you what happens with plans. You start with far-fetched goals. They are then pickled into a rigid dogma, a code, and you go through the months sticking to that - outdated, misplaced, irrelevant to the real needs - and you end up in the grotesque chaos of standing in the pouring rain in Downing Street, calling an election that you cannot win."

Still think Kinnock was better than he is portrayed, was treated appallingly by the right wing media, all he ever seems to be remembered is for falling in the water, done a lot of the hard yards for Blair, imo

Kinnock was a fighter politician (they were quite common in his time - Thatcher , Hatton ,Livingstone ,Tebbitt etc) - he gave as good as he got and is quite admired by across society (like the others mentioned ) because they seemed more genuine and able to stand up for themselves . Even though I still dont get the full logic of his militant speech , it was brave to do that at his party conference .
Now politicians are so soft establishment (from all parties) and weak that I cannot think of a single "fighter" in modern politics except maybe Galloway (which is maybe he was elected recently)

mickydroy said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

CarlottaVance said:

EXCLUSIVE: Labour has re-branded its flagship package of workers rights and employment reforms.

The New Deal will now be known as Labour's Plan To Make Work Pay

Starmer wants to sharpen core message of putting money in people's pockets and reassure business

https://x.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1794299971878912269

Can Rishi sue for breach of copyright? Only Rishi has a plan. "Starmer has no plan, Labour will take you back to square one".

He should give them the benefit of his experience:

"I’ll tell you what happens with plans. You start with far-fetched goals. They are then pickled into a rigid dogma, a code, and you go through the months sticking to that - outdated, misplaced, irrelevant to the real needs - and you end up in the grotesque chaos of standing in the pouring rain in Downing Street, calling an election that you cannot win."

Still think Kinnock was better than he is portrayed, was treated appallingly by the right wing media, all he ever seems to be remembered is for falling in the water, done a lot of the hard yards for Blair, imo

Carnyx said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cleitophon said:

Look at how Denmark voted in the 1992 eu referendum after winning the European championships against Germany... they were in a rush of nationalistic fervor

Fake news.

The Danish referendum was on the 2nd of June 1992.

Denmark beat Germany in the final of Euro 92 on the 26th of June 1992.

That's a really impressive rejoinder.

TheValiant said:

Cicero said:

OldKingCole said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

wooliedyed said:

CarlottaVance said:

Told Andy Street seriously weighing up bid to head to Westminster and become an MP after his very close West Mids loss. Likely to be Solihull.

Friends say he's still weighing it up...

A spokesperson for Andy Street said: “Following the West Midlands Mayoral election result earlier this month, Andy is taking some time away to consider and assess his options before deciding on his next move.”

https://x.com/natashac/status/1794272899810914575

He'd walk Solihull. If he wants to shape Conservatism he should go for it.

Candidates have to be signed, sealed and delivered by 7/6 so he has a fortnight from yesterday to weigh up his options, but in practice less because he (and Boris?) will want to grab a safe seat.

I thought that even Boris thought that his Parliamentary ship had sailed. I suspect both the Tories and Reform are doing some arm-twisting behind the scenes as far as candidates are concerned.

I think there is a high chance that Reform will not get candidates in every seat, and a small chance that the Tories might find a few missing too.

No party runs in every seat...... and hasn't for quite some time.

(Cough Northern Ireland, cough).

Farooq said:

mickydroy said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

CarlottaVance said:

EXCLUSIVE: Labour has re-branded its flagship package of workers rights and employment reforms.

The New Deal will now be known as Labour's Plan To Make Work Pay

Starmer wants to sharpen core message of putting money in people's pockets and reassure business

https://x.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1794299971878912269

Can Rishi sue for breach of copyright? Only Rishi has a plan. "Starmer has no plan, Labour will take you back to square one".

He should give them the benefit of his experience:

"I’ll tell you what happens with plans. You start with far-fetched goals. They are then pickled into a rigid dogma, a code, and you go through the months sticking to that - outdated, misplaced, irrelevant to the real needs - and you end up in the grotesque chaos of standing in the pouring rain in Downing Street, calling an election that you cannot win."

Still think Kinnock was better than he is portrayed, was treated appallingly by the right wing media, all he ever seems to be remembered is for falling in the water, done a lot of the hard yards for Blair, imo

Kinnock, Major, Hague, Brown, Miliband were all unfairly maligned. The people like Big_G having fits about how unfairly Sunak has been portrayed over the past few days are mostly of the type who didn't give a fuck when it was only happening to Labour leaders over the past 20 years, which is why I'm pretty short on sympathy with them. They are, strictly speaking, correct, of course: Sunak is getting it in the neck for non-mistakes. But if you only whine when it's affecting your team, you can stuff it.

kyf_100 said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 47% (+1)
CON: 22% (-1)
REF: 12% (+1)
LDM: 8% (=)
GRN: 6% (-2)

via
@wethinkpolling
, 23-24 May

(Changes with 17 May)

https://x.com/OprosUK/status/1794317873407807702

Party Leader Approval Ratings:

Keir Starmer (LAB): 34% (-6)
Rishi Sunak (CON): 25% (=)

via
@wethinkpolling
, 23-24 May

(Changes with 17 May)

https://x.com/OprosUK/status/1794317979980857433

With several recent polls showing similar, I still find it mad that Labour 46-48% is trading at 8/1 on Betfair Exchange.

If a "breaks all the established rules" type landslide result is on the cards, that seems like a value bet compared to say, betting on Cons getting 50-100 seats, at 4.2 on Betfair. Especially since the Tories could actually win a lot more seats if the Reform vote comes home, with Labour still getting in the high 40s in overall vote share.

CarlottaVance said:

The Civil Service has now entered the pre-election period.

This will last until the General Election concludes.

During this time there will be restrictions on communications activity and Government social media accounts will be quieter than usual.

https://x.com/cabinetofficeuk/status/1794262124207722528?

Farooq said:

mickydroy said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

CarlottaVance said:

EXCLUSIVE: Labour has re-branded its flagship package of workers rights and employment reforms.

The New Deal will now be known as Labour's Plan To Make Work Pay

Starmer wants to sharpen core message of putting money in people's pockets and reassure business

https://x.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1794299971878912269

Can Rishi sue for breach of copyright? Only Rishi has a plan. "Starmer has no plan, Labour will take you back to square one".

He should give them the benefit of his experience:

"I’ll tell you what happens with plans. You start with far-fetched goals. They are then pickled into a rigid dogma, a code, and you go through the months sticking to that - outdated, misplaced, irrelevant to the real needs - and you end up in the grotesque chaos of standing in the pouring rain in Downing Street, calling an election that you cannot win."

Still think Kinnock was better than he is portrayed, was treated appallingly by the right wing media, all he ever seems to be remembered is for falling in the water, done a lot of the hard yards for Blair, imo

Kinnock, Major, Hague, Brown, Miliband were all unfairly maligned. The people like Big_G having fits about how unfairly Sunak has been portrayed over the past few days are mostly of the type who didn't give a fuck when it was only happening to Labour leaders over the past 20 years, which is why I'm pretty short on sympathy with them. They are, strictly speaking, correct, of course: Sunak is getting it in the neck for non-mistakes. But if you only whine when it's affecting your team, you can stuff it.

dixiedean said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

dixiedean said:

@algarkirk raises an interesting question as to what constitutes a "disaster" for the Tories?
He's calling 41-33 not to be.
But I make that a Lab majority of c. 84.
That's a 2019 style result reversed.
Would that be seen as a disaster or not?
It was for Labour.
Even if it is currently something of a mountain to climb to even get there. And probably a result that many Tories would be secretly relieved at.

I saw some polling the other day that said Labour would win a majority with a 5 point lead because of how efficient their vote is. I am sceptical of it myself but ultimately it won't be important what the margin is, it will be if Labour wins a majority.

If Labour wins a majority, it will be hailed as a success and Keir Starmer will feel triumphant. It won't last but he'll probably get a polling boost post the election.

Scotland makes the crucial contribution to Labour vote efficiency.

Redditch said:

mickydroy said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

CarlottaVance said:

EXCLUSIVE: Labour has re-branded its flagship package of workers rights and employment reforms.

The New Deal will now be known as Labour's Plan To Make Work Pay

Starmer wants to sharpen core message of putting money in people's pockets and reassure business

https://x.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1794299971878912269

Can Rishi sue for breach of copyright? Only Rishi has a plan. "Starmer has no plan, Labour will take you back to square one".

He should give them the benefit of his experience:

"I’ll tell you what happens with plans. You start with far-fetched goals. They are then pickled into a rigid dogma, a code, and you go through the months sticking to that - outdated, misplaced, irrelevant to the real needs - and you end up in the grotesque chaos of standing in the pouring rain in Downing Street, calling an election that you cannot win."

Still think Kinnock was better than he is portrayed, was treated appallingly by the right wing media, all he ever seems to be remembered is for falling in the water, done a lot of the hard yards for Blair, imo

1992 election was the strangest in modern times. We had been in a shocking recession yet Major scraped home. 1992 and 2017 have been the most exciting recent election nights.

Redditch said:

mickydroy said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

CarlottaVance said:

EXCLUSIVE: Labour has re-branded its flagship package of workers rights and employment reforms.

The New Deal will now be known as Labour's Plan To Make Work Pay

Starmer wants to sharpen core message of putting money in people's pockets and reassure business

https://x.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1794299971878912269

Can Rishi sue for breach of copyright? Only Rishi has a plan. "Starmer has no plan, Labour will take you back to square one".

He should give them the benefit of his experience:

"I’ll tell you what happens with plans. You start with far-fetched goals. They are then pickled into a rigid dogma, a code, and you go through the months sticking to that - outdated, misplaced, irrelevant to the real needs - and you end up in the grotesque chaos of standing in the pouring rain in Downing Street, calling an election that you cannot win."

Still think Kinnock was better than he is portrayed, was treated appallingly by the right wing media, all he ever seems to be remembered is for falling in the water, done a lot of the hard yards for Blair, imo

1992 election was the strangest in modern times. We had been in a shocking recession yet Major scraped home. 1992 and 2017 have been the most exciting recent election nights.

wooliedyed said:

Redditch said:

mickydroy said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

CarlottaVance said:

EXCLUSIVE: Labour has re-branded its flagship package of workers rights and employment reforms.

The New Deal will now be known as Labour's Plan To Make Work Pay

Starmer wants to sharpen core message of putting money in people's pockets and reassure business

https://x.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1794299971878912269

Can Rishi sue for breach of copyright? Only Rishi has a plan. "Starmer has no plan, Labour will take you back to square one".

He should give them the benefit of his experience:

"I’ll tell you what happens with plans. You start with far-fetched goals. They are then pickled into a rigid dogma, a code, and you go through the months sticking to that - outdated, misplaced, irrelevant to the real needs - and you end up in the grotesque chaos of standing in the pouring rain in Downing Street, calling an election that you cannot win."

Still think Kinnock was better than he is portrayed, was treated appallingly by the right wing media, all he ever seems to be remembered is for falling in the water, done a lot of the hard yards for Blair, imo

1992 election was the strangest in modern times. We had been in a shocking recession yet Major scraped home. 1992 and 2017 have been the most exciting recent election nights.

I think this one will have genuine shocks outside the normal Lab GAIN deluge

GIN1138 said:

Morning PB

Polls already dropping and it's not even Saturday evening yet? #Popcorn on standby

dixiedean said:

@algarkirk raises an interesting question as to what constitutes a "disaster" for the Tories?
He's calling 41-33 not to be.
But I make that a Lab majority of c. 84.
That's a 2019 style result reversed.
Would that be seen as a disaster or not?
It was for Labour.
Even if it is currently something of a mountain to climb to even get there. And probably a result that many Tories would be secretly relieved at.

GIN1138 said:

Cookie said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Andy_Cooke said:

With all the reading the runes and analysis of the whys and wherefores over Sunak calling the election now, part of me wonders if it's really simple and was telegraphed last autumn:

https://x.com/cazjwheeler/status/1708189787377525139?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1708189787377525139|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=

[i]BREAKING: Jeremy Hunt has been caught in a secret recording during a private meeting with Tory activists suggesting that Sunak will call a general election once inflation has fallen below three per cent - giving the strongest hint yet that a poll will be held next autumn.
7:39 PM · Sep 30, 2023
·
1.8M
Views[/I]

What if Sunak had a simple trigger that he'd decided upon several months ago - one where he (having been Chancellor and deep in his spreadsheets) assumed he was addressing the single greatest issue that people genuinely have?

Because as it turns out, nearly eight months after that tweet, he pulled the trigger the day that inflation was announced below three percent.

I concluded much the same. I think he's been waiting for that number. If it had happened in April he'd have gone then.

It is daft to be triggered by an inflation rate because voters in shops across the land are weighing up the pound in their pocket against the number on the shelf, and not sitting at home and watching the news to see if it will be Heinz or own-brand ketchup this week. And the BoE MPC can't react to fallen inflation because they are in purdah because Rishi called the election.

Also, while high inflation makes people feel poor immediately, low inflation only makes people feel rich very gradually. Inflation falling <> prices falling.
It seems astonishing that Rishi or Conservative strategists would fail to grasp this, but that seems to be the way of it.

Yeah, Once inflation has decimated someone's earnings and savings it can take months or years to feel better off.

Chris said:

AlsoLei said:

Rishi's team seem to be going out of their way to make him look weird - is it deliberate?

No - what you're seeing is Rishi after his team has moved heaven and earth to make him look as normal as possible.

Alanbrooke said:

Mexicanpete said:

GIN1138 said:

Morning PB

Polls already dropping and it's not even Saturday evening yet? #Popcorn on standby

Looking good @GIN1138 . Do you think the eight point drop in Lab-Con in just a fortnight is down to Rishi's campaign start? The advantage of surprise over everyone else, allowing the Tories to hit the ground running- face first.

It's the rule of football. A blue team has won the League so PM will be blue too.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

wooliedyed said:

Unite not happy with Labour's changes to the New Deal for workers, but unless they act with the £££ they've just been stitched up (again)

Apparently Bridget Phillipson has refused to rule out a rise in fees

Thought Labour were for the youngish vote but reality kicking in maybe

https://news.sky.com/story/labours-bridget-phillipson-criticised-for-refusing-to-rule-out-tuition-fee-hike-13142619