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Forget the campaign, the curse of Harry Kane could have a bigger impact on th – politicalbetting.com
Forget the campaign, the curse of Harry Kane could have a bigger impact on the election – politicalbetting.com
Martyn Ziegler in The Times has this little piece that might explain why Sunak called a July election
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I was talking to an academic at a top university the other day and they said they are really struggling to get PhD students. I said Brexit? And he said, a bit, but stipend is the biggest problem. Its £18.5k outside of London. They said when they did their PhD their stipend in todays money would be £27k. Up until 3 years ago, yes stipends had fallen behind, I think they said it would have been about £20k in 2018 money, but equivalent of £7k inflated away.
Same with post-docs, their money is £20k below what it used to be in real times from 20 years ago.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/21/three-years-of-pain-how-inflation-drove-the-uk-cost-of-living-crisis
"Inflation may be back towards the Bank of England’s target, but until recent price rises are matched with higher incomes, most UK households will face lower living standards for some time to come."
Huge if true. Does the Prime Minister know?
How much funding do Research Council studentships provide?
At least £18,622 per year as a PhD stipend to help cover living costs.
https://www.findaphd.com/guides/research-council-studentships
PhD salary outside of London: In 2023/24 most new PhD students in the UK will receive a PhD stipend worth at least £18,622 per year.
PhD salary in London: In 2023/24 most new PhD students in London will receive an increased stipend to account for cost of living, which is typically around £20,622 per year.
https://www.thesavvyscientist.com/how-much-does-a-phd-student-earn/
I don't know about the percentage of self funded, it might be skewed by oldies doing it as a hobby, but in my experience, that isn't true for 21/22 years old coming out of their degrees. They require the stipend and few are self funded.
There will be individual special PhD that might pay £24k (there has always been such things, mine was paid above the research coucil rate, but I was the highest paid in my lab), but in general all universities will follow the research councils.
Edit - There are some PhD these days that are mixed with a job. They pay more, but it isn't a stipend, its taxable income. So £24k but IC / NI.
The Welsh premier league is represented by the mighty metropoli of Bala, Aberystwyth, Connah's Quay and Newtown.
The current champions are actually from England!
It is hardly surprising they never qualify for anything...it's as though England only picked from the National League.
I struggle to find compliant hotels within my company's expenses policy when I travel for work, now, except Travelodges etc.
Net effect? I can't find staff who are willing to travel to do client work.
Con: 22% (+1 from 21-22 May)
Lab: 44% (-2)
Reform UK: 14% (+2)
Lib Dem: 9% (=)
Green: 6% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Interesting that again there is some correlation betweem Reform and Labour. Not saying its a 'thing' (yet) but how ironic if the Tories began cheerleading Tice to help them hang on in a few, lolz
Anyway, YouGov with the first 'narrowing' data of the game so far
If Foden gets injured Labour 120 majority
If Foden and Bellingham get injured Labour 160 majority
The Danish referendum was on the 2nd of June 1992.
Denmark beat Germany in the final of Euro 92 on the 26th of June 1992.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/03/eat-premier-inn-purple-hotels-restaurants-dined-past-life
Vote Conservative to save your breakfast!
I have often wondered, though. Why is Welsh domestic football in such a poor state? You'd think if Moldova and Slovenia can occasionally get a team into the Champions League group stage, Wales ought to be able to have done it, even just once. But no. I find it strange.
Wasn't it the gloomy economic news of rising inflation and unemployment, fear of a further devaluation and a particularly poor set of trade figures a few days before the GE?
Mrs U went the other week and said although inflation is supposed to be better than UK, prices were insane for particularly food / restaurants. $15 for basic fast food now, rather than the famous 99c everything. Plus of course you are expected to tip 20% for basically every interaction (not even just humans, they tip to get a tip on the automated checkout machines).
$60k isn't going to get your far in the US these days.
(Bellingham's a good player but I'd take him over Bellingham anyday)
Could be wrong, of course.
TBF no sign of other polls narrowing so nothing for SKS fans to be concerned about yet.
1) Voting patterns are entirely determined by age (IRL they explain about 40% of voting preference in each constituency, on average)
2) Turnout by age group is broadly the same as in previous elections
3) The YouGov poll is reliable
4) The England and Wales census is reliable
Then Labour will win every constituency in England and Wales. The closest would be Isle of Wight East with a 7,000 Labour majority.
This is obviously nonsense - the largest Labour majority in this projection (26,000) is much smaller than the largest Labour majority in 2019. But it shows that demographics are entirely against the Tories in this election.
If turnout among younger people is higher than normal... It all gets much closer if you add Reform to the Tory vote (and Green to Labour). But still a clean sweep.
(I have a really nice graph but I'm worried I will see a UFO later and won't be able to post the photo)
I am trying to argue for an exception but don't hold out much hope.
I'd be massively better off in the US, I think, even factoring in healthcare.
Main bearing is I don't particularly like the US. I'd consider Canada.
If it had been after the QF’s or SF’s then perhaps some influence but three group matches and a round of 16 for Scotland and England, though not Wales or Northern Ireland, are not going set pulses racing. The opponents don’t get serious until after the General Election date.
The only possible impact would be a negative one if either country is knocked out prior to the QF’s.
Next straw clutch please
The US is fine if you earn well and corporate jobs pay very well. Its much better than UK. I wouldn't want to be on medium salary there though.
Everyone knew the YouGov 30 was bollocks. Robert Hayward thinks the Labour lead is 7 to 9% from the locals. So all to play for then.
🔷SF 26% - (+3 from 2019 election)
🔷DUP 20% - (-11)
🔷Alliance 15% - (-2)
🔷UUP 13% - (+1)
🔷SDLP 10% (-5)
🔷TUV 8% (didn't run)
DUP buckling, SDLP lose their seats, UUP back at Westminster
https://x.com/SuzyJourno/status/1794266667515863109?t=J5N6FqHBS4IZFdsB5XoE0g&s=19
Worth a thought..
Of the economic news you mention, it is perhaps the balance of payments that was most important. Inflation and unemployment were known factors and would not have caused a last minute reversal.
Has it really got that expensive even in Glasgow? I haven't been for about 10 years, but I stayed in Raddison Blu and I don't think it cost me that for a week.
But it will have * all impact on the Election 😈
1) Sunak is planning a 'surprise' plane load of immigrants to Rwanda w/c 24 June
2) todays strategy session is partly about drafting Boris into one of the candidateless seats, Sunak having decided to quit his seat after summer recess. Boris' intervention yesterday tells me he is running somewhere
(Is there also a factor of the collapse of the asylum system and ongoing use of hotels sucking up the capacity which previously would have been cheap last minute bookings?)
Not sure what is driving this. Minimum wage increases will have played a part but I begin to suspect some cartel activity.
Of course I know that all the tech bros have moved on the USB sticks for their CVs now.
Our eldest son and our Canadian daughter in law are in from Vancouver and are withering about Trudeau, and say the conservatives will win the election in Canada next year
ETA 10/1 is with Skybet. I've not made an exhaustive search of all the books.
With cost of food, rent, utilities, £18.5k a year isn't going to go far, especially at a uni located in a nicer city (which most of the top ones are).
16,384 results
Sunak's job is to pick the strategy that will maximise the number of seats he gets. If he tried the latter he might get no votes at all.
PB is going to get pretty dull otherwise.
Small town in Hampshire. Big village really. Yesterday at 3pm I had an appointment at my accountant.
Four protestors (all but one with grey hair) outside the town all. Made no noise. One had a massive Palestinian flag. The others held up a banner saying: 'ceasefire now'. They were there for 30 minutes - during which no-one paid them the slightest bit of attention, not that there many around anyway - and then they left.
What on earth is going on?
Some of us recognised that from Day One, but it took most of Canada a bit of time to wake up to that.
Two bits of Cole news; our eight blue-tit chicks left the nest this morning and, in perhaps related news, Granddaughter Two graduated from secondary school this morning. If she gets the necessary grades (and there’s reason for optimism) she’s off to Melbourne Uni after Christmas.
Looked really grown up …… well, an 18 year old young lady ought to ….. at the ceremony.
Unionist tactical voting may help SDLP hold Foyle.
Grannies for Gaza / Greta....
e.g https://www.theartnewspaper.com/2024/05/13/climate-protestors-charged-over-magna-carta-attack-in-london
I was wondering if it was some sort of groupie social media challenge where they have to "raise the flag" where they live, or something, and get it on Twatter.
However, I do read some posters asking why Sunak called the election for 4th July
Sunak, for all his faults, knows economics and he looked into the Autumn and concluded that tax cuts were impossible and with the dreadful PSBR he knew the next government will have to slash spending and increase taxes which is not sustainable politically for him
Furthermore, his party were in a public civil war with the possibility they could try to vonc him, so he literally 'pulled the pin' and in that one decision not only handed the keys of no 10 to Starmer but ensured his party would face their deserved comeuppance and time in opposition to decide just who they are and who they want to represent
It seems 30% plus of the intake of mps will be new which will be interesting to witness
I would just add that Sunak has handed Labour an early present and to be fair, I do not like some of the current abuse he is receiving which is unnecessary and may please the haters but does nothing to further political debate and the safety to all those brave enough to stand for public office in todays environment
In the medium term, the market will respond and more hotels will be built in Edinburgh (particularly along the new tram line in Leith/Newhaven) which is good news for everyone.