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Something to ponder before betting on this election – politicalbetting.com

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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    Fishing said:

    When I remember the poor decisions my friends and I made in our early 20s, I think they should raise the voting age to the level at which the average brain is fully mature, which seems to be in the mid- to late-20s.
    Are you going to lower the maximum voting age to exclude those in their dotage?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,039
    Foxy said:

    No. Blair deliberately lowballed his objectives so that he could over deliver. The pledge card was very unambitious.*

    Sunak has done the opposite. He bigger up his promises then failed to deliver them . Then wants re-election on the basis of those promises.

    * somewhere I have one given to me personally by John Prescott, signed by him.
    Thing is, Blair could have completely changed the country, maybe not to my liking obviously, but had such a majority and backing he could have turned the UK into some social democratic scandi country. He didn’t because he knew really the English (purposely English not British) wouldn’t take it. Starmer with a massive majority could also do that. I don’t want it but at least it’s honest and makes a decisive change and direction. Why is it that the left if given the chance doesn’t do something radical with a massive majority?
  • RedditchRedditch Posts: 31

    I am not sure it is the opposite in sport - it depends more on personality than effort - For instance who was more liked Geoffrey Boycott or David Gower ? Seb Coe put in huge effort to get his medals but never really liked . Steve Davis was just hated in the 1980s and everyone liked Alex Higgins or Jimmy White
    Yes but Boycott was still picked for England despite being disliked. If he was in a large uk corporation they would likely try and fire him. Massive difference.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,557
    edited May 2024
    Foxy said:

    No. Blair deliberately lowballed his objectives so that he could over deliver. The pledge card was very unambitious.*

    Sunak has done the opposite. He bigger up his promises then failed to deliver them . Then wants re-election on the basis of those promises.

    * somewhere I have one given to me personally by John Prescott, signed by him.
    After a certain actor was staying at a local hotel, I was given a card with a picture of Darth Vader on one side and the Green Cross Code Man on the other. In the middle was a very angry looking signature saying "Dave Prowse is Darth Vader!"

    I fear I win.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    I reckon Hunt will stand down tomorrow evening.

    He's already confirmed he is standing, twice
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,517

    'Allegedly'...

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1793038192892928503

    Isn't this always the problem with political wheezes. Its easy to see a thumb on the scale as righting the wrongs of past injustice, until the electorate turns and now you're staring down, votes for 16 year olds, curtailing postal voting and automatic enrolment on the electoral register.
    Labour thought devolution would neuter the SNP, for example.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,424

    I would be willing to listen to that, but far too much of the discussion around the case so far is thinking the middle class nice looking nurse can't be guilty, because she doesn't look the type.
    Not on here it wasn’t. Discussed at some point this afternoon. I feel sorry for juries. Usually they won’t really have expertise in statistics, and have to judge based on what experts tell them. I was always suspicious of the cot death case, simply because cot deaths etc are likely to have genetic factors and it didn’t make sense to simply multiply the odds of one event twice, as they are not independent. And yet I have no doubt that Meadow believed what he was saying.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,109

    Are you going to lower the maximum voting age to exclude those in their dotage?
    No because many old people don't have any such problems, and therefore the only way to do it would be to individually assess people, and I'm guessing hardly anyone is in favour of that.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,039
    Farooq said:

    No.

    Not all of this will be to everyone's tastes, but quite a lot happened, some of it pretty big:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premiership_of_Tony_Blair#First_term_(1997–2001)
    Too lazy, as always, to read the links but guessing it’s because he was more interested in spending billions killing Iraqi civilians than fixing the UK. If so I agree - he was a disgrace and wasted a golden legacy on a pointless disgraceful war, war crime really.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    Andy_JS said:

    No because many old people don't have any such problems, and therefore the only way to do it would be to individually assess people, and I'm guessing hardly anyone is in favour of that.
    Not all young people are immature.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,109
    edited May 2024

    I reckon Hunt will stand down tomorrow evening.

    You win a box of Quality Street if this happens. 😊
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,537



    Did we do the WeThink poll?

    Lab 47(+1)
    Con 22(-1)
    Ref 12(+1)
    LD 8(-)
    Green 6(-2)
    SNP 3(+1)

    Labour lead 25(+2)

    https://wethink-strapi-k5d3.onrender.com/uploads/Voter_Intention_Tracker_240524_c766ac5719.png

    Three pollsters reported since GE was called. Labour lead on average +2 compared with previous polls.

    Obviously most pollsters still to report, so this could change.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,557

    1) Peston: Senior Tories believe there will be an avalanche of Tory MPs announcing their retirement this weekend
    2) Sunak quits the campaign and goes home to closet himself away with his closest advisors...

    OK. So who becomes acting leader? Hunt?

    Please let it be Liz. We need a little humour in this darkest of hours.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,329

    That’s a fair point, but I ask again, is this not simply the mirror of what the Tories did with voter ID? There is no burning reason to lower the age of voting, when you won’t do so for alcohol, and you must still attend school.
    The voter ID issue was entirely confected. I don’t know what Labour’s motivations are here, but there are arguments why it’s good to involve more people in voting and this change has, one could argue, worked well in Scotland.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,424

    Not on here it wasn’t. Discussed at some point this afternoon. I feel sorry for juries. Usually they won’t really have expertise in statistics, and have to judge based on what experts tell them. I was always suspicious of the cot death case, simply because cot deaths etc are likely to have genetic factors and it didn’t make sense to simply multiply the odds of one event twice, as they are not independent. And yet I have no doubt that Meadow believed what he was saying.
    For info on the potential statistical flaws in the Letby case see
    https://scienceontrial.com/post/shifting-the-data#:~:text=The%20new%20shift%20data%20reveals,25)%20over%20the%20period%20investigated.
  • RedditchRedditch Posts: 31
    boulay said:

    Absolutely, we should stick to those titans of success who didn’t go to public school like May, Truss, Brown. It’s all down to schooling.
    Yes sure lets have old etonians like Boris over Thatcher. Dont bother to work too much why not leave it to the plebs. The uk of 2024 is the result.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,517
    Farooq said:

    No.

    Not all of this will be to everyone's tastes, but quite a lot happened, some of it pretty big:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premiership_of_Tony_Blair#First_term_(1997–2001)
    Will be interesting to see if the Labour manifesto contains anything of similar scale.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,413
    Andy_JS said:

    You win a box of Quality Street if this happens. 😊
    A box of Celebrations might be more apt.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,039
    boulay said:

    Too lazy, as always, to read the links but guessing it’s because he was more interested in spending billions killing Iraqi civilians than fixing the UK. If so I agree - he was a disgrace and wasted a golden legacy on a pointless disgraceful war, war crime really.
    Sorry if that doesn’t make sense, trying to type something sensible whilst singing along to “live it up” By mental as anything. Should be a test, if you can still make your point whilst one hit wonder Aussie bands are ringing in your ears then you are ok.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377
    Andy_JS said:

    You win a box of Quality Street if this happens. 😊
    Inequality Street.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,738
    ohnotnow said:

    After a certain actor was staying at a local hotel, I was given a card with a picture of Darth Vader on one side and the Green Cross Code Man on the other. In the middle was a very angry looking signature saying "Dave Prowse is Darth Vader!"

    I fear I win.
    Prescott was signing and handing out pledge cards as fast as he could all campaign. I don't think mine is unique!

    An interesting little political momento from my Labour years. I took a weeks leave to go canvassing in Loughborough that election. It being the target seat locally. It was a very professional and slick campaign, even a script of the day each morning to keep us on grid and on message.

    I left Labour in 2004, but that campaign was great fun. A real sense of achievement as seat after seat fell. I stayed up way past Portillo.

  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,378


    Tim Montgomerie 🇬🇧
    @montie
    Gove. Wallace. Javid. May. Redwood. Zahawi. Leadsom. Cash. Clark. (I could go on and on…) All stepping down. We are witnessing an absolutely massive changing of the guard. An historic loss of experience and memory - whatever the election result. The Conservative Party won’t be the same again..:. For good or ill

    https://x.com/montie/status/1794104125057060962

    I'm sure the Conservative party has quite a list of approved potential candidates, but there is approved and approved and the balance may have moved from candidates fighting to get selected to decent candidates having their choice of seats. It might be beneficial if the Tories didn't win too many seats to ensure only the best are elected.

    On a sour note I am embarrassed to say I am sorry to see Gove and Redwood standing down as I would have liked watching them lose their seats which in both cases was a possibility. I am really not proud of having those thoughts.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,922
    Andy_JS said:

    Which personal characteristics ruled you out?
    The two biggest were a belief in redistributive taxation and a reluctance to accept the whip system. I'm basically too, what's the word, investigative(?) to take a whip: I'd want to read everything first and vote against it if i disagreed. They would be within their rights to reject me simply on that basis.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,329

    Not on here it wasn’t. Discussed at some point this afternoon. I feel sorry for juries. Usually they won’t really have expertise in statistics, and have to judge based on what experts tell them. I was always suspicious of the cot death case, simply because cot deaths etc are likely to have genetic factors and it didn’t make sense to simply multiply the odds of one event twice, as they are not independent. And yet I have no doubt that Meadow believed what he was saying.
    The evidence against Letby was not just statistical. There were eye witnesses of suspicious behaviour. There were her handwritten notes to herself, there was the stolen medical records and other mementoes, etc.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,738
    edited May 2024
    boulay said:

    Too lazy, as always, to read the links but guessing it’s because he was more interested in spending billions killing Iraqi civilians than fixing the UK. If so I agree - he was a disgrace and wasted a golden legacy on a pointless disgraceful war, war crime really.
    The Iraq war was Second term, not first.

    9/11 was a few months into Blairs second term.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,424

    The voter ID issue was entirely confected. I don’t know what Labour’s motivations are here, but there are arguments why it’s good to involve more people in voting and this change has, one could argue, worked well in Scotland.
    There is an issue around voting, but it’s mainly abuse of postal votes. That said I think you should have to prove you are who you say you are when you vote, but Inwould accept either the polling card or your ID. Many countries require ID, so it’s not an unusual thing.
    And worked well in Scotland - for whom? How do you define worked well?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,109
    O/T

    Something you don't see often. Prof John Curtice trying to explain why the exit poll was wrong, in 1992.

    At 7 hours, 44 mins, 42 secs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4YY7KWJAtA
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Foxy said:

    I would very much doubt that the French would have sold the Louisiana territory to us in 1802 either.
    Or even 1803.

    Of course, a frontier between British America and French Louisiana would have been an obvious flashpoint (or rather many flashpoints) between Britain and France during the Napoleonic Wars post-Amiens.

    Though likely NOT a decisive theater re: the course of the conflict, which probably would have played out the same > British victory.

    At which point, the question of Louisiana - in particular navigation on the Mississippi River - would have become an acute concern for British Americans west of the Allegheny and Appalachian Mountains, for whom this would be a VITAL economic necessity.

    Just like it was for non-British Americans in non-counterfactual reality.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127

    The evidence against Letby was not just statistical. There were eye witnesses of suspicious behaviour. There were her handwritten notes to herself, there was the stolen medical records and other mementoes, etc.
    This. I was wary of a purely statistical basis and plenty of normal behaviour can appear suspicious with the knowledge that someone's accused of murder but that doesn't explain away the notes and the records.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,424

    The evidence against Letby was not just statistical. There were eye witnesses of suspicious behaviour. There were her handwritten notes to herself, there was the stolen medical records and other mementoes, etc.
    I’m not disputing that, and I have no idea if she was guilty or not. But I do think it’s looking likely the stats used were hokey.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242

    Like the Cylons, he has a plan
    And like the Cylons, it was actually being made up as it went along.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,011
    Andy_JS said:

    You win a box of Quality Street if this happens. 😊
    Looking forward to them.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,922
    Fishing said:

    When I remember the poor decisions my friends and I made in our early 20s, I think they should raise the voting age to the level at which the average brain is fully mature, which seems to be in the mid- to late-20s.
    I) Democracy is not a way of obtaining good government, it's a way of obtaining the consent of the governed.
    Ii) Since you can be in the Army at 18, and subject to the ultimate maturity test - should I kill this man with this rifle - the older limit obviously does not apply.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,039
    Farooq said:

    Iraq was in his second term.

    Don't mistake me for a Labour or Blair apologist. One of the prime reasons I've never voted Labour was because of Iraq.
    But the idea that Labour didn't do much from 97-01 is incorrect. I like some of it, and I hate some of it, but it was a pretty iconic, transformative policy era.
    True but they could have been massively transformative, to the point we would be a vastly different country now (yeah ok we are in a different way) with a completely different approach to tax, education, etc etc. if Blair had said on day five “VAT on private school fees it would have happened then with a bit of grumbling from the surviving conservatives. He could have made massive NHS reforms, whatever but so much was tempered by not scaring the horses and making sure they won the next election.

    If, for example, a massive majority Starmer gov went kamikaze and did major radical things I might not like the outcome but I would respect it that that’s what the electorate voted for but at present we just get a rubbish blancmange in the middle where the country isn’t right wing enough or left wing enough so gets the worst of both worlds.

    I shouldn’t really give a shit as I don’t even live there but I do because I love Britain for some bizarre reason.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    viewcode said:

    The two biggest were a belief in redistributive taxation and a reluctance to accept the whip system. I'm basically too, what's the word, investigative(?) to take a whip: I'd want to read everything first and vote against it if i disagreed. They would be within their rights to reject me simply on that basis.
    Just tell 'em, that you'll do for them AND the party, what the great statesman Edmund Burke did for his constituents in Bristol and HIS party.

    OR you could tell 'em, you'll do for them like Burke did for Warren Hastings!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,666
    kyf_100 said:

    Another part of perception, we somehow despise *effort*. Cf my ex, pointing out that to work at all was infra dig. This is part of the national consciousness, and probably
    explains generational unemployment in
    Jaywick as much as it does my well-heeled
    ex.



    So Boris was lauded for being effortless, doing little work, delegating, being a bit of a buffoon, etc. Whereas Rishi, despite his many accomplishments is written off as a try hard. And believe me an MBA at Stanford is much more impressive and academically rigorous than Classics at Oxford.

    Sadly it's the national culture, or national disease. To be seen to try is to be a bit of a loser, whether you're a working class kid in a sink school, or the next PM. And it explains a lot about the state this country is in.
    Starmer gets the same try hard nonsense too. Reason: the tabloid jour
    Sean_F said:

    Women and ethnic minorities have proved they can be just as incompetent as white males.
    I remember Miriam Gonzales saying, in front of her husband (I was never sure of this was a dig), that we’d know women were getting close to proper equality when rank female mediocrities who don’t work that hard get to the top of national life, rather than preternaturally talented and driven women. So on that score we’re definitely getting close.

    On another topic, an interesting thought:

    https://x.com/psythor/status/1794127635204763997?s=46

    Will that boost the SNP vote?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,039

    Or even 1803.

    Of course, a frontier between British America and French Louisiana would have been an obvious flashpoint (or rather many flashpoints) between Britain and France during the Napoleonic Wars post-Amiens.

    Though likely NOT a decisive theater re: the course of the conflict, which probably would have played out the same > British victory.

    At which point, the question of Louisiana - in particular navigation on the Mississippi River - would have become an acute concern for British Americans west of the Allegheny and Appalachian Mountains, for whom this would be a VITAL economic necessity.

    Just like it was for non-British Americans in non-counterfactual reality.
    I like the fact that we used to share the Oregon territory with you. And then I cry over what we lost when we handed it over to you . All those amazing things in Oregon. Those great things. What is there in Oregon?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480


    Tim Montgomerie 🇬🇧
    @montie
    Gove. Wallace. Javid. May. Redwood. Zahawi. Leadsom. Cash. Clark. (I could go on and on…) All stepping down. We are witnessing an absolutely massive changing of the guard. An historic loss of experience and memory - whatever the election result. The Conservative Party won’t be the same again..:. For good or ill

    https://x.com/montie/status/1794104125057060962

    Redwood stepping down ironically might keep Wokingham blue
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480

    1) Peston: Senior Tories believe there will be an avalanche of Tory MPs announcing their retirement this weekend
    2) Sunak quits the campaign and goes home to closet himself away with his closest advisors...

    OK. So who becomes acting leader? Hunt?

    Rishi called this general election now so he better get on with it and lead his party through it not closet himself away!
  • RedditchRedditch Posts: 31
    On the subject of the english class system this is disgusting from Boris but true to form.

    NEW: Boris Johnson launches an attack on Keir Starmer in the Daily Mail

    "He takes responsibility for everything that took place on his watch - except of course for the failure to prosecute the paedophile, necrophiliac and BBC superstar Jimmy Saville"
    6:27 PM · May 24, 2024
    ·
    308.9K
    Views

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1794057756590157910
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,848
    ...roy
    Redditch said:

    Indeed. One of the baleful effects of the English class system. Of course there is self interest in this the poshos can sail through on connections and dont have to work so hard. Why not hobble the competition. If the uk becomes 2nd rate as a result ah well.
    And of course Redditch is a microcosm of the English class system. There is real deprivation on the Winyates estate and yet noticeable affluence in Winyates Green. I couldn't believe it last time I went to the office in Moon Moat from the M42 at Portway I noticed they've only gone and demolished the Cross and Bowling Green at Beoley! What is the World coming to?

    Dasvidaniya Comrade!
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,558

    I’m not disputing that, and I have no idea if she was guilty or not. But I do think it’s looking likely the stats used were hokey.
    Some crimes are so egregious it must be hard for the jury to decide if the defendant is either innocent or insane.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,011

    @Tomorrow'sMPs
    @tomorrowsmps
    ·
    1h
    🔴RICHMOND & NORTHALLERTON (Lab target 343): Labour have picked Tom Wilson as candidate to stand against Rishi Sunak.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,596
    HYUFD said:

    Rishi called this general election now so he better get on with it and lead his party through it not closet himself away!
    And yet he *is* closeting himself away.

    A few people on here have been unhappy with posts pointing incredulous ridicule at what has been a catastrofuck of a campaign - and we're only a few days in.

    Having to quit the campaign to plan his resignation plan a rethink / restart, a weekend where an avalanche of Tories will announce they are quitting does rather demonstrate that the moaners are wrong to object to such posts! Its mental, but its true.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,002

    1) Peston: Senior Tories believe there will be an avalanche of Tory MPs announcing their retirement this weekend
    2) Sunak quits the campaign and goes home to closet himself away with his closest advisors...

    OK. So who becomes acting leader? Hunt?

    Will Sunak announce this weekend that he is not standing on 4th July and is withdrawing from the campaign? Must be tempting if the reason he's gone early is because he's completely pissed off with the whole thing.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,775
    Leon said:

    Indeed. See the contempt on this site for Rishi Sunak for his sin of having hard-working, hard-caring parents who spent every penny sending him to great schools, where he ALSO worked hard (head boy) and then got a really good lucrative job

    What a wanker! How dare he! And an Indian! We like our minorities to be oppressed gang bangers who get wrongly shot by police while doing drug deals, thanks, so they don't get any uppity ideas about actually succeeding
    I'm still waiting to see how he fancy his spreadsheets are.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Farooq said:

    Is it theoretically possible to stop the general election at this point? Like, if Sunak just tore off his clothes and disappeared into the sea, could someone actually go to the palace and say "actually, don't dissolve parliament yet"?

    It would be rather embarrassing but there's nothing technically to stop it until Parliament is dissolved next Friday.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,424

    And yet he *is* closeting himself away.

    A few people on here have been unhappy with posts pointing incredulous ridicule at what has been a catastrofuck of a campaign - and we're only a few days in.

    Having to quit the campaign to plan his resignation plan a rethink / restart, a weekend where an avalanche of Tories will announce they are quitting does rather demonstrate that the moaners are wrong to object to such posts! Its mental, but its true.
    I objected to people saying the football question was a gaffe. It clearly isn’t, unless you think no one ever watches tournaments when their team isn’t in it.
    Quite frankly this site is currently dominated by those who want the Tories smashed, and seemingly spend all day looking for anything, anything that can be used to mock or sneer.

    How about thinking about policies and how the parties might differ?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,596
    I'm serious.

    What if he quits?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,011
    edited May 2024

    I'm serious.

    What if he quits?

    The King appoints Deputy PM as PM until July 5th.

    Edit: Although he could quit as MP and yet remain PM until 5th.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377
    ohnotnow said:

    Please let it be Liz. We need a little humour in this darkest of hours.
    Ten Years to Save the Tory Party.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,596

    I objected to people saying the football question was a gaffe. It clearly isn’t, unless you think no one ever watches tournaments when their team isn’t in it.
    Quite frankly this site is currently dominated by those who want the Tories smashed, and seemingly spend all day looking for anything, anything that can be used to mock or sneer.

    How about thinking about policies and how the parties might differ?
    "it wasn't a gaffe"
    And yet when he jokingly asked - expecting enthusiasm - he received embarrassed silence. Which he then tried to laugh off.

    How can you deny that it was a gaffe? Come on.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,558
    edited May 2024
    HYUFD said:

    Redwood stepping down ironically might keep Wokingham blue
    Yesterday was the 29th anniversary of what I still regard as John Redwood Day. As SoS he was guest speaker at an event in South Wales. After he sat down an aid whispered something in his ear and suddenly he upped and left and the rest of us had get on with lunch without him. Turned out John Major had resigned the Tory leadership ('Back me or sack me') and within seconds Redwood was the train to Westminster to answer the siren call of ambition.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,011
    Farooq said:

    Is it theoretically possible to stop the general election at this point? Like, if Sunak just tore off his clothes and disappeared into the sea, could someone actually go to the palace and say "actually, don't dissolve parliament yet"?

    Yes.

    But outlandish.

    Major civil emergency forces recall of prorogued parliament.

    MPs elect new PM who clearly commands the House.

    New PM goes to the Palace...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    boulay said:

    I like the fact that we used to share the Oregon territory with you. And then I cry over what we lost when we handed it over to you . All those amazing things in Oregon. Those great things. What is there in Oregon?
    LOTS of amazing things in Oregon. Even including some of the Oregoners! (But do NOT call them that.)

    And YOU cry! Ever hear of "Fifty-four Forty or Fight"? US should have held out for the whole hog! But that damned James K. Freaking Polk gave up what's now "British" Columbia to please the Slaveocracy.

    Heck, we're lucky JKP didn't throw in Puget Sound to sweeten this rotten (for USA) deal.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,596
    Another question - do Tory MPs who have announced they are not seeking re-election still count towards the 1922 total? Would their letters still count?

    Sunak is having a long dark night of the soul and parliament has prorogued - not dissolved.

    So there is still time for Andrea Leadsome...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,424

    "it wasn't a gaffe"
    And yet when he jokingly asked - expecting enthusiasm - he received embarrassed silence. Which he then tried to laugh off.

    How can you deny that it was a gaffe? Come on.
    The implication is that no one in Wales is going to watch the Euros because Wales didn’t qualify so he shouldn’t mention football? Maybe the crowd just wasn’t into football.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 575
    Barnesian said:

    Will Sunak announce this weekend that he is not standing on 4th July and is withdrawing from the campaign? Must be tempting if the reason he's gone early is because he's completely pissed off with the whole thing.
    Wow that would be high drama. But not unthinkable I guess. I am already seeing a cataclysm of an election unfolding....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242
    viewcode said:

    I) Democracy is not a way of obtaining good government, it's a way of obtaining the consent of the governed.
    Ii) Since you can be in the Army at 18, and subject to the ultimate maturity test - should I kill this man with this rifle - the older limit obviously does not apply.
    Our rules around who is an adult are not totally consistent. There is an argument they don't need to be but by and large I think they should. And given other trends my suggestion would be to raise ones like that, not lower the voting age. I just don't think we as a society generally treat 16 year olds as adults, and I think only adults should vote.

    But I accept the fight as basically lost and once done I don't think it'll be changed back.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,775
    Leon said:

    Yes. I do

    I admire Kahn for rising as far as he has from a humble background, it is genuinely creditable

    I also think he is a terrible Mayor of London and want him gone. Likewise, I will not vote for Sunak, he's a rubbish PM
    No, you have never ever written multiple paragraphs praising Sadiq Khan.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,011
    edited May 2024
    Farooq said:

    I don't think that's a given, is it? It really doesn't HAVE to be Dowden.
    You are entering constitutional grey murk zone.

    DPM doesn't really exist constitutionally. However, the existence of such a role kinda implies that should something happen to the PM the deputy is available.

    I suspect that strictly speaking the Palace would expect the Cabinet to provide a single name as the person they would support as caretaker PM.

    So if the Cabinet said bollx to Dowden it is Gove we want... then Gove would be caretaker PM until the "kissing of hands" (doesn't happen) of the new PM (he/she who almost certainly commands the House) on 5th July.

    Edit: although actually the most likely thing is that Sunak hands resignation but remains caretaker PM until 5th. Pretty sure Palace would put huge pressure on that happening unless Sunak was too ill to continue or sadly actually dead. For all his faults he wouldn't flounce out and refuse to do six weeks as caretaker PM I think?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425
    https://x.com/kiranstacey/status/1794122073373081653?s=46

    BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Another question - do Tory MPs who have announced they are not seeking re-election still count towards the 1922 total? Would their letters still count?

    Sunak is having a long dark night of the soul and parliament has prorogued - not dissolved.

    So there is still time for Andrea Leadsome...

    There is no capacity to arrange a vote, noone is at parliament. And Brady has checked out, he wont be checking his mailbox again
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    Tres said:

    No, you have never ever written multiple paragraphs praising Sadiq Khan.
    Khan creditable

    Khan good Tooting MP, apparently

    There you go
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,666

    I objected to people saying the football question was a gaffe. It clearly isn’t, unless you think no one ever watches tournaments when their team isn’t in it.
    Quite frankly this site is currently dominated by those who want the Tories smashed, and seemingly spend all day looking for anything, anything that can be used to mock or sneer.

    How about thinking about policies and how the parties might differ?
    Sometimes a population just needs a cathartic moment. Out with the old in with the new. Particularly after the trauma of a pandemic and a decade and a half of stagnation. Incumbents around the world are discovering that.

    Thankfully we’re a democracy so that happens in elections not in bloody revolutions.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Ten Years to Save the Tory Party.
    Slight correction - "Ten Years to Lettuce Save the Tory Party"
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,424
    TimS said:

    Sometimes a population just needs a cathartic moment. Out with the old in with the new. Particularly after the trauma of a pandemic and a decade and a half of stagnation. Incumbents around the world are discovering that.

    Thankfully we’re a democracy so that happens in elections not in bloody revolutions.
    Can’t disagree with that, but a lot of stuff on here has been rather juvenile from some posters.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,666
    Leon said:

    Khan creditable

    Khan good Tooting MP, apparently

    There you go
    “Write a sort of haiku praising a political enemy” is an interesting new artform.

    Boris made me laugh
    Granted he’s also a c*nt
    But that’s still something
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Sunak stepped out of the downing st bubble and got his first glimpse of reality. Poor bugger.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,274
    Foxy said:

    I live and work amongst East African Asian Doctors and Pharmacists!

    One of the best things that the Conservatives ever did was support the move of East African Asians to Britain when Amin chucked them out.

    I have great admiration for their culture of hard work and academic work, and they often do describe episodes of racism along the way.

    But it is the simple truth that Sunak has led a gilded life. Prep School, Winchester College, a flat bought for him in London aged 22 for his first job in the City. Selected for a safe seat, and rapidly promoted. He has never had to experience the bitter taste of failure. Sure he has worked hard too, I have never denied that.

    This is why he has been such a failure as PM. He has never had to learn to eat humble pie, to develop humility, or to listen to others advice on how to do better. So he doesn't know how. He might have been a decent PM if he had a decade in opposition rather than straight into government.
    No, you are a racist
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,243
    Labour's focus on the Blue Wall going well:

    🔴 HENLEY & THAME: I'm told that almost as soon as she was announced, Alexandra "Ally" Aldridge-Gibbons stood down as Labour candidate.

    https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1794136508028559570
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,413
    Jonathan said:

    Sunak stepped out of the downing st bubble and got his first glimpse of reality. Poor bugger.

    He's destroyed the Tory Party. The only question is whether it's deliberate.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126
    edited May 2024
    Farooq said:

    Is it theoretically possible to stop the general election at this point? Like, if Sunak just tore off his clothes and disappeared into the sea, could someone actually go to the palace and say "actually, don't dissolve parliament yet"?

    As I understand it, the dissolution isn't happening until the 30th, because the date of the election is tied rigidly to the date of dissolution.

    So, yes. The King would follow the advice of his ministers and not dissolve Parliament if he received such advice before then.

    But I don't think it's remotely likely that Sunak will quit. If that was something he was considering then he would have simply quit as PM, rather than call an election.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    kyf_100 said:

    Maybe he's got an important silicon valley job interview he needs to prep for.
    Could be in cyber.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    Labour's focus on the Blue Wall going well:

    🔴 HENLEY & THAME: I'm told that almost as soon as she was announced, Alexandra "Ally" Aldridge-Gibbons stood down as Labour candidate.

    https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1794136508028559570

    A seat listed 342 on the Labour target ranking. One that matters only if you're after a majority of over 400 in the Commons.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,011
    Farooq said:

    No, I don't reckon it's likely. It was just a what-if in my head and I didn't know the answer.
    Certain stuff like this - no one knows the answer. We don't have a written constitution and the reserve powers of sovereign keep academics like Bogdanor and Brazier in work. There are some pretty strong principles and guidelines these days but...
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,558
    DM_Andy said:


    It would be rather embarrassing but there's nothing technically to stop it until Parliament is dissolved next Friday.

    We had an on/off Prorogation five years ago. It was cancelled because the Supreme Court decided Boris had bamboozled Her Late Majesty into signing something she shouldn't have. In fact HLM was not that daft. She acted as the PM advised her, relying on the courts to toss it out. This is how the constitution works.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,217
    On voting ages: As a man I can say this: I would not be entirely opposed to a lower voting age for women than men. (I understand that is entirely impractical in any nation that I respect, but I also recognize that women grow up sooner than men -- on the average.)

    (FWIW, the state of Illinois once had a lower drinking age (18) for women than men (21).)
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,243

    A seat listed 342 on the Labour target ranking. One that matters only if you're after a majority of over 400 in the Commons.
    It matters because, like Didcot & Wantage (hello, Nick) and a few dozen others round the Blue Wall, it will be a LibDem shoo-in unless the local CLP decide to start campaigning because, hey, maybe keeping Tories in their seats isn't such a bad thing after all.
  • Leon said:

    No, you are a racist
    You're a hypocrite. A bigot. And faintly pathetic.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,906
    Farooq said:

    The consent thing is actually a key* to good governance. It de-escalates the inherent violence between the governed and government. Power without consent is violence and can only be opposed with violence. Power with consent is contingent on maintaining that consent and therefore much more likely to be wielded in the interests of the governed.

    Taking consent out of the equation for the section of society temperamentally most inclined to violence would be... brave.

    *keys are not always used, but they are a necessary component.
    For me though, it cuts both ways, the governed should wait until the next election to change the government not attempt to violently overthrow them before that.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,321
    HYUFD said:

    Redwood stepping down ironically might keep Wokingham blue
    Don't think it will, even though people loathe him.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729

    Certain stuff like this - no one knows the answer. We don't have a written constitution and the reserve powers of sovereign keep academics like Bogdanor and Brazier in work. There are some pretty strong principles and guidelines these days but...
    I suspect that in the modern era of COBRA / crisis preparedness, there is an agreed plan to ensure continuity of government, even if it is not distributed beyond the PM and the King's private secretary.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2024

    A seat listed 342 on the Labour target ranking. One that matters only if you're after a majority of over 400 in the Commons.
    This is the only seat I have some local knowledge of. LDs were value at 3, arguably still are at 2.5. An incredibly aged local Conservative party combined with the councillor base having been all but wiped out, even at town council level over the past few elections. The only level Henley-on-Thames(!!!) is represented by Convservatives is at Westminster. That will more likely than not change in a month and a bit. Towns are annoyed about no E.European nannies, countryside are farmers annoyed at Brexit.

    Labour have parachuted in a ringer from Brixton who won't put any effort in, and in a two way fight no question who wins for me.

    As said earlier - LDs available at 2.5s.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,321
    Gove thinks he would lose Surrey Heath? Honestly, whatever the polls say we are looking at a total Tory meltdown. This isn't 1997, or even 1906, this is now in a whole new world.
  • So, counterfactual, Andrea Leadsom becomes PM in 2016, what then?
  • ApolloApollo Posts: 3
    Is Rishi trying to lose? Apply Occam's razor.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,321
    Apollo said:

    Is Rishi trying to lose? Apply Occam's razor.

    Maybe
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,321

    Yesterday was the 29th anniversary of what I still regard as John Redwood Day. As SoS he was guest speaker at an event in South Wales. After he sat down an aid whispered something in his ear and suddenly he upped and left and the rest of us had get on with lunch without him. Turned out John Major had resigned the Tory leadership ('Back me or sack me') and within seconds Redwood was the train to Westminster to answer the siren call of ambition.
    In many ways he put forward sensible critiques. Problem was that he did so in such an unpleasant and hectoring manner, that he alienated even his own side. He has been described as the stupidest man in All Souls, and I think that could be true
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,109
    More than 1,000 comments. Maybe an election is in the offing.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,177
    Jonathan said:

    Sunak stepped out of the downing st bubble and got his first glimpse of reality. Poor bugger.

    Some of us have been adamant for years that he is an electoral dud.

    Sadly, the dinner party circuit don't get politics. The result is going to be that a Blairite is taking the Tory party to the precipice.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,177
    edited May 2024

    https://x.com/kiranstacey/status/1794122073373081653?s=46

    BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.

    LOL.

    'Chaps, I really think we need to think about the optics before we plan visits'

    'No, really, the Titanic Quarter was fascinating, but at the same time. I mean, really, chaps.'
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,109
    Mortimer said:

    Some of us have been adamant for years that he is an electoral dud.

    Sadly, the dinner party circuit don't get politics. The result is going to be that a Blairite is taking the Tory party to the precipice.
    He lost an election to Truss.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Christ, being out tonight I've missed Leadsome, Gove quitting. Add those to the list and basically every recognisable name bar Truss is out. The Tories post 2024 are going to be extremely different to the pre-24 Tories.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,109
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,940

    https://x.com/kiranstacey/status/1794122073373081653?s=46

    BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.

    The problem for Sunak now is anything is being taken as a gaffe/disaster/crisis.

    He might be just spending some time with his family but the press/PB have jumped on Cameron as interim PM till election or other such nonsense.

    The mass resignation of Tory MPs is something I did not anticipate and should have been an important argument against an early election. The sense of panic is palpable now.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,109
    edited May 2024
    Very mysterious.

    "Asked by Stein to “give us the names, please” of those who had “let her down” by withholding information as the scandal developed, Paula Vennells listed the senior IT executives Mike Young, whom the inquiry has not been able to find, and Lesley Sewell, and the general legal counsels Susan Crichton, Chris Aujard and Jane MacLeod."

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/may/24/paula-vennells-names-five-executives-she-blames-over-post-office-scandal

    Of the five, one "can't be found", and, as we know, another is in New Zealand and refusing to cooperate with the inquiry.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,005
    Andy_JS said:

    He lost an election to Truss.
    'Blairite' gets used weirdly as there are good and bad Blairites. There are those who realise why he was successful and understand it. Then there are bad tribute acts. Same on the Tory side with Cameron or Johnson - depending on your pitch.

    Sunak, alarmingly if you are conservative, seems to be a bad tribute act who doesn't understand what he should be paying tribute to. Like a drunk Elvis impersonator who starts singing Frankie Valli songs badly.
This discussion has been closed.