Christ, being out tonight I've missed Leadsome, Gove quitting. Add those to the list and basically every recognisable name bar Truss is out. The Tories post 2024 are going to be extremely different to the pre-24 Tories.
A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant
He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt
I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing"
Why would a forensic psychiatrist be able to assess evidence about how premature babies died?
The evidence against Letby was not based on her psychiatric state but on the non-natural causes of the deaths and that Letby was the only nurse who was present at the relevant times.
I've seen a number of middle aged men unwilling to believe Letby's guilt. They see the image of the pretty blond nurse holding up a babygro and forget that a jury sat through months of evidence to reach their conclusions.
"As a schoolboy, the young Michael Heseltine mapped out his future. In his 20s, he would become a millionaire. In his 30s, he would become an MP. In his 40s, he would be on the Tory frontbench. By his 50s – between 1983 and 1993 – he would enter Downing Street."
"Although a likeable character, Major proved a weak and decisive Prime Minister. His leadership remained under almost perpetual threat from the autumn of 1992 until the May 1997 General Election."
Tim Montgomerie 🇬🇧 @montie Gove. Wallace. Javid. May. Redwood. Zahawi. Leadsom. Cash. Clark. (I could go on and on…) All stepping down. We are witnessing an absolutely massive changing of the guard. An historic loss of experience and memory - whatever the election result. The Conservative Party won’t be the same again..:. For good or ill
Redwood stepping down ironically might keep Wokingham blue
Yesterday was the 29th anniversary of what I still regard as John Redwood Day. As SoS he was guest speaker at an event in South Wales. After he sat down an aid whispered something in his ear and suddenly he upped and left and the rest of us had get on with lunch without him. Turned out John Major had resigned the Tory leadership ('Back me or sack me') and within seconds Redwood was the train to Westminster to answer the siren call of ambition.
In many ways he put forward sensible critiques. Problem was that he did so in such an unpleasant and hectoring manner, that he alienated even his own side. He has been described as the stupidest man in All Souls, and I think that could be true
He is the exception to the rule that all politicians are charming and likeable if you meet them in person.
Is it theoretically possible to stop the general election at this point? Like, if Sunak just tore off his clothes and disappeared into the sea, could someone actually go to the palace and say "actually, don't dissolve parliament yet"?
It would be rather embarrassing but there's nothing technically to stop it until Parliament is dissolved next Friday.
We had an on/off Prorogation five years ago. It was cancelled because the Supreme Court decided Boris had bamboozled Her Late Majesty into signing something she shouldn't have. In fact HLM was not that daft. She acted as the PM advised her, relying on the courts to toss it out. This is how the constitution works.
No, it was granted because nobody showed a legal basis on which to refuse it.
It was eventually ruled wrong under a very obscure Scottish case from over a hundred years ago that very few people knew about. Including most Scottish judges.
Hale seriously over-egged the pudding in her declarations on the subject that it was ‘in effect a blank piece of paper’ which was rather typical of her bombastic behaviour for all her knowledge of English family law had few peers.
I’ll criticise Cummings any day of the week but to suggest he or anyone else involved including the Queen thought they were acting illegally (rather than just stupidly) is not correct.
A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant
He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt
I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing"
Why would a forensic psychiatrist be able to assess evidence about how premature babies died?
The evidence against Letby was not based on her psychiatric state but on the non-natural causes of the deaths and that Letby was the only nurse who was present at the relevant times.
I've seen a number of middle aged men unwilling to believe Letby's guilt. They see the image of the pretty blond nurse holding up a babygro and forget that a jury sat through months of evidence to reach their conclusions.
Every wrong conviction involves a jury.
Yes... what is more revealing about this is how totally certain people are that she is guilty. It is a decision by a jury that relies largely on circumstantial evidence.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Tim Montgomerie 🇬🇧 @montie Gove. Wallace. Javid. May. Redwood. Zahawi. Leadsom. Cash. Clark. (I could go on and on…) All stepping down. We are witnessing an absolutely massive changing of the guard. An historic loss of experience and memory - whatever the election result. The Conservative Party won’t be the same again..:. For good or ill
Redwood stepping down ironically might keep Wokingham blue
Yesterday was the 29th anniversary of what I still regard as John Redwood Day. As SoS he was guest speaker at an event in South Wales. After he sat down an aid whispered something in his ear and suddenly he upped and left and the rest of us had get on with lunch without him. Turned out John Major had resigned the Tory leadership ('Back me or sack me') and within seconds Redwood was the train to Westminster to answer the siren call of ambition.
In many ways he put forward sensible critiques. Problem was that he did so in such an unpleasant and hectoring manner, that he alienated even his own side. He has been described as the stupidest man in All Souls, and I think that could be true
One thing I liked about Redwood is his willingness to engage with critics, provided they were polite. I used to argue with him on his blog, and he used to reply and make counter arguments.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Good news for Richi on Day 4 of the campaign.
As far as I can tell, he hasn't made any colossal mistakes today.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
Everything about the rushed announcement is just weird. Even the inner circle of Sunak have clearly done very little to no planning, as if even they thought it was another 6+ months.
I am sure one day we will find out the reasons why he pulled the emergency exit latch.
Is it theoretically possible to stop the general election at this point? Like, if Sunak just tore off his clothes and disappeared into the sea, could someone actually go to the palace and say "actually, don't dissolve parliament yet"?
It would be rather embarrassing but there's nothing technically to stop it until Parliament is dissolved next Friday.
We had an on/off Prorogation five years ago. It was cancelled because the Supreme Court decided Boris had bamboozled Her Late Majesty into signing something she shouldn't have. In fact HLM was not that daft. She acted as the PM advised her, relying on the courts to toss it out. This is how the constitution works.
No, it was granted because nobody showed a legal basis on which to refuse it.
It was eventually ruled wrong under a very obscure Scottish case from over a hundred years ago that very few people knew about. Including most Scottish judges.
Hale seriously over-egged the pudding in her declarations on the subject that it was ‘in effect a blank piece of paper’ which was rather typical of her bombastic behaviour for all her knowledge of English family law had few peers.
I’ll criticise Cummings any day of the week but to suggest he or anyone else involved including the Queen thought they were acting illegally (rather than just stupidly) is not correct.
For all the SC made a unanimous decision in the end it was hardly the obvious slam dunk unlawful decision people now seem to recall it as being, not least since a lower court in England had ruled it lawful.
I considered the prorogation a bad and wrong decision irrespective of whether it was lawful, but I don't have a reason to assume bad faith on the part of those involved inasmuch as whether they intended unlawfullness.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
The election would have leaked - no trustworthy inner circle.
Is it theoretically possible to stop the general election at this point? Like, if Sunak just tore off his clothes and disappeared into the sea, could someone actually go to the palace and say "actually, don't dissolve parliament yet"?
It would be rather embarrassing but there's nothing technically to stop it until Parliament is dissolved next Friday.
We had an on/off Prorogation five years ago. It was cancelled because the Supreme Court decided Boris had bamboozled Her Late Majesty into signing something she shouldn't have. In fact HLM was not that daft. She acted as the PM advised her, relying on the courts to toss it out. This is how the constitution works.
No, it was granted because nobody showed a legal basis on which to refuse it.
It was eventually ruled wrong under a very obscure Scottish case from over a hundred years ago that very few people knew about. Including most Scottish judges.
Hale seriously over-egged the pudding in her declarations on the subject that it was ‘in effect a blank piece of paper’ which was rather typical of her bombastic behaviour for all her knowledge of English family law had few peers.
I’ll criticise Cummings any day of the week but to suggest he or anyone else involved including the Queen thought they were acting illegally (rather than just stupidly) is not correct.
I think you are rewriting history a bit there. Loads of people thought it was illegal at the time. On the day Johnson suspended parliament Speaker Bercow called it a "constitutional outrage", John Major suggested it was illegal, and legal challenges were launched. Of course Johnson and Cummings knew what they were doing might well be illegal, they just didn't care.
A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant
He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt
I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing"
Why would a forensic psychiatrist be able to assess evidence about how premature babies died?
The evidence against Letby was not based on her psychiatric state but on the non-natural causes of the deaths and that Letby was the only nurse who was present at the relevant times.
I've seen a number of middle aged men unwilling to believe Letby's guilt. They see the image of the pretty blond nurse holding up a babygro and forget that a jury sat through months of evidence to reach their conclusions.
Every wrong conviction involves a jury.
Yes... what is more revealing about this is how totally certain people are that she is guilty. It is a decision by a jury that relies largely on circumstantial evidence.
I don't see how people are being unreasonable in assuming the correctness of a jury verdict after a very long trial to weigh the evidence until much more concrete information comes out to undermine that.
Nearly all people won't have followed every detail of the case and nearly all won't have followed the details of the arguments against the outcome either. It is little different to most cases in that respect.
Wrong verdicts happen, everyone knows that, but by and large people trust the system and assume if there are legal or factual flaws these will come out through appeal.
A tragedy if that ultimately reveals fundamental flaws with the conviction, but I fail to see what's bizarre or 'revealing' that people trust the outcome of a trial and will leave it to appeals and campaigners to prove otherwise legally before they instantly decide reasonable doubt must exist.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
The most bizarre moment in recent British politics - the infamous march on Downing Street, orchestrated by Andrea Leadsom supporters, lead by Tim Loughton.
An idea from a certain Ms Mordaunt MP; I wonder what happened to her?
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
The evidence so far doesn't demonstrate that much of a plan is in place. They didn't even have a campaign video ready to go. When you are the one who gets to fire the starting pistol, you should be then able to be first with a lot of things to get a campaign gain momentum.
Actually it is interesting compared to Sunak leadership bid, they had the flashy video ready and a load of other stuff. Now him being crap at debates and the Tory party members wanted uncosted Trussonomics is another matter. But at the time, people said if anything Sunak for PM was too slick.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
The election would have leaked - no trustworthy inner circle.
Possibly so, but such a leak would have been less damaging than declaring an unprepared election.
Sunaks biggest flaw is his inability to listen to other people when they are trying to help him.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
When the times and people are against you it's hard to catch a break. Every interpretable moment will come down not in your favour.
Sucks for him and history may judge it a bit harsh, but them's the breaks. It's his job to overcome this sort of thing.
Mr. B, yeah, the practice results were fairly interesting. At the moment, Leclerc for pole/the win is something I've got in mind but the odds are trash, just over evens either way (and I need to check the weather). An untimely crash could scupper something like that.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Back in the real world, the first days of Rishi's campaign have seen gaffe after gaffe so it is not surprising he will take a day off to reset. As I said earlier, this has been 2017 redux so kudos to Rishi for realising things are going pear-shaped and trying to address that.
They really are having a disaster. One i saw was that it advised you to drink your own piss to help pass kidney stones.
The general response appears to be 'look, it's right most of the time!' and that these are uncommon queries, but the problem is whilst most people display a certain caution about regular Google results, plenty of people will accept as truth anything that is provided.
That is, more than those who already believe anything they read online.
They really are having a disaster. One i saw was that it advised you to drink your own piss to help pass kidney stones.
The general response appears to be 'look, it's right most of the time!' and that these are uncommon queries, but the problem is whilst most people display a certain caution about regular Google results, plenty of people will accept as truth anything that is provided.
That is, more than those who already believe anything they read online.
I imagine people googling help wirh passing kidney stones is pretty common. The result was basically drink lots of fluid (which i believe is correct), but the it said including drinking your own urine.
They actually have a serious model with their LLMs. The reason for all the weird image generation was they appended every query with very strong guardrails. Some said it was google being "woke", now i think there was probably a bit of that, but i also think they know their models aren't that well trained and so can't trust them not to do crazy things without the word salad appended to every query to really guide it.
A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant
He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt
I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing"
Why would a forensic psychiatrist be able to assess evidence about how premature babies died?
The evidence against Letby was not based on her psychiatric state but on the non-natural causes of the deaths and that Letby was the only nurse who was present at the relevant times.
I've seen a number of middle aged men unwilling to believe Letby's guilt. They see the image of the pretty blond nurse holding up a babygro and forget that a jury sat through months of evidence to reach their conclusions.
Every wrong conviction involves a jury.
Yes... what is more revealing about this is how totally certain people are that she is guilty. It is a decision by a jury that relies largely on circumstantial evidence.
I don't see how people are being unreasonable in assuming the correctness of a jury verdict after a very long trial to weigh the evidence until much more concrete information comes out to undermine that.
Nearly all people won't have followed every detail of the case and nearly all won't have followed the details of the arguments against the outcome either. It is little different to most cases in that respect.
Wrong verdicts happen, everyone knows that, but by and large people trust the system and assume if there are legal or factual flaws these will come out through appeal.
A tragedy if that ultimately reveals fundamental flaws with the conviction, but I fail to see what's bizarre or 'revealing' that people trust the outcome of a trial and will leave it to appeals and campaigners to prove otherwise legally before they instantly decide reasonable doubt must exist.
I didn't follow the trial particularly closely, so have no particular knowledge of what evidence convinced the jury.
But a nurse or other health care worker using their position of trust in order to harm is not that unusual. There was a similar case in Grantham with Beverley Allit some years ago. Indeed we had a near miss in my own Trust a few years back. There were a number of incidents where aneasthetic equipment in our emergency operating theatres malfunctioned, including blocked piping etc. Fortunately no one came to harm, but it was a covert camera that discovered what was happening. A member of staff was filmed sabotaging an anaesthetic machine. Further investigation found that they were present at the previous incidents. The motivation was that this person would appear at the moment of equipment failure, and sort it out by undoing their sabotage, thriving on being the hero on the day.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
When the times and people are against you it's hard to catch a break. Every interpretable moment will come down not in your favour.
Sucks for him and history may judge it a bit harsh, but them's the breaks. It's his job to overcome this sort of thing.
There’s a difference between analysis that is unfavourable and refracting every move through the lens of your own animus. There’s a danger that the intense loathing most journalists are directing towards Sunak tips over into something even less edifying.
Journalism would be much better served if the individuals involved weren’t trying to simultaneously run commentary on the match and score the winning goals.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Back in the real world, the first days of Rishi's campaign have seen gaffe after gaffe so it is not surprising he will take a day off to reset. As I said earlier, this has been 2017 redux so kudos to Rishi for realising things are going pear-shaped and trying to address that.
I tbink the gaffes have been overdone by the journalists, but Sunak doesn't seem to have anything to announce. He is pottering around making these visits with nothing really to say other than weird small talk and softball questions. There are no policies.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
When the times and people are against you it's hard to catch a break. Every interpretable moment will come down not in your favour.
Sucks for him and history may judge it a bit harsh, but them's the breaks. It's his job to overcome this sort of thing.
There’s a difference between analysis that is unfavourable and refracting every move through the lens of your own animus. There’s a danger that the intense loathing most journalists are directing towards Sunak tips over into something even less edifying.
Journalism would be much better served if the individuals involved weren’t trying to simultaneously run commentary on the match and score the winning goals.
Politicians complaining about unfair press are like a fish complaining about being wet.
Labour is looking to introduce votes for 16 and 17-year-olds in its first year in government if it wins the election.
The party is closely studying how Scotland and Wales lowered the voting age and believes there is no reason why lowering the national voting age for general elections would need to take longer.
Sir Keir Starmer pledged to extend the franchise to younger voters in September with no indication of how quickly the policy would be implemented should it win the election. Party sources now say that while there is yet no commitment that the policy will be in the King’s Speech, it is nonetheless expected to be enacted quickly. “I would be extremely surprised if it wasn’t in the King’s Speech,” one said, describing the legislation needed as “extremely straightforward”.
I am against this. I am not convinced that 16 year olds are mature enough for the vote. They will have a lifetime of voting after they turn 18.
People love to slam the Tories for allegedly using voter ID to suppress votes against them. Will they slam this as a naked attempt to garner more youth votes for Labour? One man’s gerrymandering is another’s increasing the democratic franchise…
I was against it then went to Scotland in 2014 and some of the best arguments/campaigners on both sides were sixteen and seventeen year olds.
I'd raise it to 21 tbh. I was an idiot who knew nothing of how the world worked fresh out of school. It took a couple of years of being in the real world before I got a handle on how things worked. And a decade or so more after that...
16 year olds are children. 18 year olds are barely better, but given we allow them the right to drink, drive, get shot at for their country, leave home and tell their parents to do one at around this time, it seems to be the consensus age of majority.
Can any of us say we felt grown up at sixteen? Really?
Yet the conversations we had with sixth formers during our annual schools week as councillors were generally more thoughtful and insightful that probably 75% of those we had with ‘adults’ on the doorstep.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Back in the real world, the first days of Rishi's campaign have seen gaffe after gaffe so it is not surprising he will take a day off to reset. As I said earlier, this has been 2017 redux so kudos to Rishi for realising things are going pear-shaped and trying to address that.
I tbink the gaffes have been overdone by the journalists, but Sunak doesn't seem to have anything to announce. He is pottering around making these visits with nothing really to say other than weird small talk and softball questions. There are no policies.
A shambolic campaign start doesn't always mean an unsuccessful one. Labour were badly wrongfooted initially in 2017, but recovered well with some eye catching policies that engaged voters such as being rid of tuition fees, and the unexpected Jezgasm at an impromptu appearance at Tranmere Rovers. Combining this with a poorly constructed "Strong and Stable" campaign by May led to a remarkable campaign swing.
It's early days, so the Tories can recover their mojo, but currently Labour's campaign is the one looking well planned and on message.
Labour is looking to introduce votes for 16 and 17-year-olds in its first year in government if it wins the election.
The party is closely studying how Scotland and Wales lowered the voting age and believes there is no reason why lowering the national voting age for general elections would need to take longer.
Sir Keir Starmer pledged to extend the franchise to younger voters in September with no indication of how quickly the policy would be implemented should it win the election. Party sources now say that while there is yet no commitment that the policy will be in the King’s Speech, it is nonetheless expected to be enacted quickly. “I would be extremely surprised if it wasn’t in the King’s Speech,” one said, describing the legislation needed as “extremely straightforward”.
If they are also going to lower the age at which you can buy alcohol and leave school etc then fine. I’m not convinced you can declare that someone is old enough to discern and determine who can make laws and govern the country but can’t in their own lives discern and determine what legal chemicals to place in their bodies. I also presume that given the candidate age is aligned with the voting age that will drop to 16 too, which will allow for the possibility of some kid who’s barely started shaving getting elected to Parliament then having to absent themselves for the first 2 years whilst they finish compulsory education. Bonkers.
When I remember the poor decisions my friends and I made in our early 20s, I think they should raise the voting age to the level at which the average brain is fully mature, which seems to be in the mid- to late-20s.
I) Democracy is not a way of obtaining good government, it's a way of obtaining the consent of the governed. Ii) Since you can be in the Army at 18, and subject to the ultimate maturity test - should I kill this man with this rifle - the older limit obviously does not apply.
i) Then why don't we lower the voting age to 6, as they are just as governed, indeed arguably more so, as 17-year-olds? ii) You can't join the Army after 43, or be in a front line unit after I think 50 or so, so should we strip 51-year-olds of the vote too?
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Back in the real world, the first days of Rishi's campaign have seen gaffe after gaffe so it is not surprising he will take a day off to reset. As I said earlier, this has been 2017 redux so kudos to Rishi for realising things are going pear-shaped and trying to address that.
I tbink the gaffes have been overdone by the journalists, but Sunak doesn't seem to have anything to announce. He is pottering around making these visits with nothing really to say other than weird small talk and softball questions. There are no policies.
Starmer isn’t exactly heavy on policies either. That’s entirely understandable at this point in the election. The gaffe narrative is overblown but then journalists often try to fit the facts into the narrative rather than allowing the narrative to flow from the facts. Now that wash up is over and Parliament stands prorogued the campaign will ramp up. I just hope the media decides to get bored with the current game.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Back in the real world, the first days of Rishi's campaign have seen gaffe after gaffe so it is not surprising he will take a day off to reset. As I said earlier, this has been 2017 redux so kudos to Rishi for realising things are going pear-shaped and trying to address that.
I tbink the gaffes have been overdone by the journalists, but Sunak doesn't seem to have anything to announce. He is pottering around making these visits with nothing really to say other than weird small talk and softball questions. There are no policies.
Starmer isn’t exactly heavy on policies either. That’s entirely understandable at this point in the election. The gaffe narrative is overblown but then journalists often try to fit the facts into the narrative rather than allowing the narrative to flow from the facts. Now that wash up is over and Parliament stands prorogued the campaign will ramp up. I just hope the media decides to get bored with the current game.
Weirdly Hunt is in the Telegraph today giving some policy, saying he will end the cliffedge at £100k. Now it is actually right to thing to do and can be done without costing money, you can jiggle thresholds. Its a barrier to productivity and growth to have people refusing to take a payrise to just over £100k, instead doing less hours, longer holidays, etc. But 90% of the country won't care. It looks very out of touch.
A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant
He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt
I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing"
Why would a forensic psychiatrist be able to assess evidence about how premature babies died?
The evidence against Letby was not based on her psychiatric state but on the non-natural causes of the deaths and that Letby was the only nurse who was present at the relevant times.
I've seen a number of middle aged men unwilling to believe Letby's guilt. They see the image of the pretty blond nurse holding up a babygro and forget that a jury sat through months of evidence to reach their conclusions.
Every wrong conviction involves a jury.
Yes... what is more revealing about this is how totally certain people are that she is guilty. It is a decision by a jury that relies largely on circumstantial evidence.
I don't see how people are being unreasonable in assuming the correctness of a jury verdict after a very long trial to weigh the evidence until much more concrete information comes out to undermine that.
Nearly all people won't have followed every detail of the case and nearly all won't have followed the details of the arguments against the outcome either. It is little different to most cases in that respect.
Wrong verdicts happen, everyone knows that, but by and large people trust the system and assume if there are legal or factual flaws these will come out through appeal.
A tragedy if that ultimately reveals fundamental flaws with the conviction, but I fail to see what's bizarre or 'revealing' that people trust the outcome of a trial and will leave it to appeals and campaigners to prove otherwise legally before they instantly decide reasonable doubt must exist.
I didn't follow the trial particularly closely, so have no particular knowledge of what evidence convinced the jury.
But a nurse or other health care worker using their position of trust in order to harm is not that unusual. There was a similar case in Grantham with Beverley Allit some years ago. Indeed we had a near miss in my own Trust a few years back. There were a number of incidents where aneasthetic equipment in our emergency operating theatres malfunctioned, including blocked piping etc. Fortunately no one came to harm, but it was a covert camera that discovered what was happening. A member of staff was filmed sabotaging an anaesthetic machine. Further investigation found that they were present at the previous incidents. The motivation was that this person would appear at the moment of equipment failure, and sort it out by undoing their sabotage, thriving on being the hero on the day.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Back in the real world, the first days of Rishi's campaign have seen gaffe after gaffe so it is not surprising he will take a day off to reset. As I said earlier, this has been 2017 redux so kudos to Rishi for realising things are going pear-shaped and trying to address that.
I tbink the gaffes have been overdone by the journalists, but Sunak doesn't seem to have anything to announce. He is pottering around making these visits with nothing really to say other than weird small talk and softball questions. There are no policies.
Starmer isn’t exactly heavy on policies either. That’s entirely understandable at this point in the election. The gaffe narrative is overblown but then journalists often try to fit the facts into the narrative rather than allowing the narrative to flow from the facts. Now that wash up is over and Parliament stands prorogued the campaign will ramp up. I just hope the media decides to get bored with the current game.
Then Sunak needs to do different things. At the moment we have a series of bizarre campaign events which either say nothing or actively hand material to the media to mock.
Labour is looking to introduce votes for 16 and 17-year-olds in its first year in government if it wins the election.
The party is closely studying how Scotland and Wales lowered the voting age and believes there is no reason why lowering the national voting age for general elections would need to take longer.
Sir Keir Starmer pledged to extend the franchise to younger voters in September with no indication of how quickly the policy would be implemented should it win the election. Party sources now say that while there is yet no commitment that the policy will be in the King’s Speech, it is nonetheless expected to be enacted quickly. “I would be extremely surprised if it wasn’t in the King’s Speech,” one said, describing the legislation needed as “extremely straightforward”.
I am against this. I am not convinced that 16 year olds are mature enough for the vote. They will have a lifetime of voting after they turn 18.
People love to slam the Tories for allegedly using voter ID to suppress votes against them. Will they slam this as a naked attempt to garner more youth votes for Labour? One man’s gerrymandering is another’s increasing the democratic franchise…
I was against it then went to Scotland in 2014 and some of the best arguments/campaigners on both sides were sixteen and seventeen year olds.
I'd raise it to 21 tbh. I was an idiot who knew nothing of how the world worked fresh out of school. It took a couple of years of being in the real world before I got a handle on how things worked. And a decade or so more after that...
16 year olds are children. 18 year olds are barely better, but given we allow them the right to drink, drive, get shot at for their country, leave home and tell their parents to do one at around this time, it seems to be the consensus age of majority.
Can any of us say we felt grown up at sixteen? Really?
Yet the conversations we had with sixth formers during our annual schools week as councillors were generally more thoughtful and insightful that probably 75% of those we had with ‘adults’ on the doorstep.
Mental faculties peak at around 30-40, right? If the lower limit was 21, the upper limit should really be around 60.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Back in the real world, the first days of Rishi's campaign have seen gaffe after gaffe so it is not surprising he will take a day off to reset. As I said earlier, this has been 2017 redux so kudos to Rishi for realising things are going pear-shaped and trying to address that.
I tbink the gaffes have been overdone by the journalists, but Sunak doesn't seem to have anything to announce. He is pottering around making these visits with nothing really to say other than weird small talk and softball questions. There are no policies.
Starmer isn’t exactly heavy on policies either. That’s entirely understandable at this point in the election. The gaffe narrative is overblown but then journalists often try to fit the facts into the narrative rather than allowing the narrative to flow from the facts. Now that wash up is over and Parliament stands prorogued the campaign will ramp up. I just hope the media decides to get bored with the current game.
Weirdly Hunt is in the Telegraph today giving some policy, saying he will end the cliffedge at £100k. Now it is actually right to thing to do and can be done without costing money, you can jiggle thresholds. Its a barrier to productivity and growth to have people refusing to take a payrise to just over £100k, instead doing less hours, longer holidays, etc. But 90% of the country won't care. It looks very out of touch.
If only he had been in a position to do something about that these last couple of years.
Senior Tories expect a significant number of further MP resignations over the weekend, in the wake of Gove’s and Leadsom’s decisions not to fight the election. Quite a number who have been re-approved as candidates have been in two minds, and thought they had till the autumn to decide. The party has more than 150 seats and rising with no candidate. That is a lot of candidates for CCHQ to find before 7 June and a lot of wasted campaigning days. It does rather indicate Sunak called the election before his party was ready
Betting Post F1: Monaco is my least favourite circuit. Anyway, backed Sainz at 23 each way to win. His recent qualifying record is highly similar to Leclerc's they're (for now) in the same car, and I'm anticipating him improving from practice. We shall see.
Well at least Gove was on the right side of the Brexit divide, unlike that chancer Cameron.
Except he wasn't. That was the oddest thing. Gove for years had been Eurosceptic because he blamed the EU for destroying his parents' fishing business. Then his father popped up and said it wasn't the EU, and he'd just retired. Gove's political philosophy (or at least that part of it) was founded on a misapprehension.
He was still on the right side of the argument even if for mistaken reasons.
IMV subsequent events have shown that Brexit was the wrong side of the argument. A divisive, pointless argument which has damaged the country.
I have a vague impression, perhaps wrong, that you will disagree with me on this...
Comprehensively. If it was divisive well, that is politics for you and that was as much because of those who would not accept the result as those who embraced it. And of course it certainly wasn't pointless as history will show. Nor do I believe it has damaged the country. It is the Tory party that has done that and they would still have been there being useless with or without Brexit.
I imagine there were many in North America claiming that American Independence was divisive, pointless and damaged the country. We don't remember their whining today.
One of the great “what ifs” of history, is to envisage a world where the revolt is put down.
Does slavery get abolished in 1833, or does the fight over slavery extend across the empire?
Does British America expand West? Would there be an American Indian State, perhaps becoming a British dominion?
Does South West America remain part of Mexico?
It was the Haitian War of Independence that made slavery untenable. After that the cost of keeping slaves in line was simply unaffordable.
No, I don't think so. You can keep slaves forever if you want to and, sadly, many countries effectively still do - China being very close to one.
It ended because it became repugnant to too many people, and we were no longer tolerant of the ethics of what was required to keep it in place.
Labour is looking to introduce votes for 16 and 17-year-olds in its first year in government if it wins the election.
The party is closely studying how Scotland and Wales lowered the voting age and believes there is no reason why lowering the national voting age for general elections would need to take longer.
Sir Keir Starmer pledged to extend the franchise to younger voters in September with no indication of how quickly the policy would be implemented should it win the election. Party sources now say that while there is yet no commitment that the policy will be in the King’s Speech, it is nonetheless expected to be enacted quickly. “I would be extremely surprised if it wasn’t in the King’s Speech,” one said, describing the legislation needed as “extremely straightforward”.
If they are also going to lower the age at which you can buy alcohol and leave school etc then fine. I’m not convinced you can declare that someone is old enough to discern and determine who can make laws and govern the country but can’t in their own lives discern and determine what legal chemicals to place in their bodies. I also presume that given the candidate age is aligned with the voting age that will drop to 16 too, which will allow for the possibility of some kid who’s barely started shaving getting elected to Parliament then having to absent themselves for the first 2 years whilst they finish compulsory education. Bonkers.
Our local councillor was still studying for his A-levels when elected in 2019.
Labour is looking to introduce votes for 16 and 17-year-olds in its first year in government if it wins the election.
The party is closely studying how Scotland and Wales lowered the voting age and believes there is no reason why lowering the national voting age for general elections would need to take longer.
Sir Keir Starmer pledged to extend the franchise to younger voters in September with no indication of how quickly the policy would be implemented should it win the election. Party sources now say that while there is yet no commitment that the policy will be in the King’s Speech, it is nonetheless expected to be enacted quickly. “I would be extremely surprised if it wasn’t in the King’s Speech,” one said, describing the legislation needed as “extremely straightforward”.
I am against this. I am not convinced that 16 year olds are mature enough for the vote. They will have a lifetime of voting after they turn 18.
People love to slam the Tories for allegedly using voter ID to suppress votes against them. Will they slam this as a naked attempt to garner more youth votes for Labour? One man’s gerrymandering is another’s increasing the democratic franchise…
I was against it then went to Scotland in 2014 and some of the best arguments/campaigners on both sides were sixteen and seventeen year olds.
I'd raise it to 21 tbh. I was an idiot who knew nothing of how the world worked fresh out of school. It took a couple of years of being in the real world before I got a handle on how things worked. And a decade or so more after that...
16 year olds are children. 18 year olds are barely better, but given we allow them the right to drink, drive, get shot at for their country, leave home and tell their parents to do one at around this time, it seems to be the consensus age of majority.
Can any of us say we felt grown up at sixteen? Really?
Yet the conversations we had with sixth formers during our annual schools week as councillors were generally more thoughtful and insightful that probably 75% of those we had with ‘adults’ on the doorstep.
Mental faculties peak at around 30-40, right? If the lower limit was 21, the upper limit should really be around 60.
It peaks at 61, I reckon. Although a year’s further research might establish that it’s really at 62.
The interesting thing is that votes at 16 was often a topic raised with, or by, the pupils, and there was always a substantial number - occasionally even a majority - who felt they weren’t yet ready for the weighty responsibility of deciding who governs us. We councillors would race to be the first to share how lightly that responsibility sat on so many of their parents.
Since Brexit, my guess is that more of them will be up for it.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Back in the real world, the first days of Rishi's campaign have seen gaffe after gaffe so it is not surprising he will take a day off to reset. As I said earlier, this has been 2017 redux so kudos to Rishi for realising things are going pear-shaped and trying to address that.
I tbink the gaffes have been overdone by the journalists, but Sunak doesn't seem to have anything to announce. He is pottering around making these visits with nothing really to say other than weird small talk and softball questions. There are no policies.
Starmer isn’t exactly heavy on policies either. That’s entirely understandable at this point in the election. The gaffe narrative is overblown but then journalists often try to fit the facts into the narrative rather than allowing the narrative to flow from the facts. Now that wash up is over and Parliament stands prorogued the campaign will ramp up. I just hope the media decides to get bored with the current game.
Weirdly Hunt is in the Telegraph today giving some policy, saying he will end the cliffedge at £100k. Now it is actually right to thing to do and can be done without costing money, you can jiggle thresholds. Its a barrier to productivity and growth to have people refusing to take a payrise to just over £100k, instead doing less hours, longer holidays, etc. But 90% of the country won't care. It looks very out of touch.
Daisy Cooper said she was going to review IR35 and the loan charge stuff on QT last night. Which also won't matter to 90% of the country, but I'd guess would be more relevant like the £100k threshold in the south-east.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Back in the real world, the first days of Rishi's campaign have seen gaffe after gaffe so it is not surprising he will take a day off to reset. As I said earlier, this has been 2017 redux so kudos to Rishi for realising things are going pear-shaped and trying to address that.
I tbink the gaffes have been overdone by the journalists, but Sunak doesn't seem to have anything to announce. He is pottering around making these visits with nothing really to say other than weird small talk and softball questions. There are no policies.
Starmer isn’t exactly heavy on policies either. That’s entirely understandable at this point in the election. The gaffe narrative is overblown but then journalists often try to fit the facts into the narrative rather than allowing the narrative to flow from the facts. Now that wash up is over and Parliament stands prorogued the campaign will ramp up. I just hope the media decides to get bored with the current game.
Weirdly Hunt is in the Telegraph today giving some policy, saying he will end the cliffedge at £100k. Now it is actually right to thing to do and can be done without costing money, you can jiggle thresholds. Its a barrier to productivity and growth to have people refusing to take a payrise to just over £100k, instead doing less hours, longer holidays, etc. But 90% of the country won't care. It looks very out of touch.
Daisy Cooper said she was going to review IR35 and the loan charge stuff on QT last night. Which also won't matter to 90% of the country, but I'd guess would be more relevant like the £100k threshold in the south-east.
IR35 is an absolute shambles. Nobody knows for certain what the line is, including the tax man.
Slightly interesting poscast by Alastaire Campbell and Rory the Tory. Neither can understand why he's calling an election he's certain to lose. Rory seems to think he just wants out. Less entertaining than I expected (No 1 in the podcast charts) but no great wit or insight.... Oh! except Rory thinking Cleverly could be a good bet to take over from Rishi.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Back in the real world, the first days of Rishi's campaign have seen gaffe after gaffe so it is not surprising he will take a day off to reset. As I said earlier, this has been 2017 redux so kudos to Rishi for realising things are going pear-shaped and trying to address that.
I tbink the gaffes have been overdone by the journalists, but Sunak doesn't seem to have anything to announce. He is pottering around making these visits with nothing really to say other than weird small talk and softball questions. There are no policies.
Starmer isn’t exactly heavy on policies either. That’s entirely understandable at this point in the election. The gaffe narrative is overblown but then journalists often try to fit the facts into the narrative rather than allowing the narrative to flow from the facts. Now that wash up is over and Parliament stands prorogued the campaign will ramp up. I just hope the media decides to get bored with the current game.
Then Sunak needs to do different things. At the moment we have a series of bizarre campaign events which either say nothing or actively hand material to the media to mock.
Politicians are in trouble when they get beyond the point where, when they try to blame the nation’s ills on the last lot, almost no-one believes it. This lot have done well to spin things out for so long.
From the Daily Telegraph today's front page. - don't they have sub editors to check things?
“Inheritance tax is a 40 per cent tax on the value of an estate - including property, money and possessions - of someone who has died. Tax is usually paid if the estate is valued at less than £325,000.
Labour is looking to introduce votes for 16 and 17-year-olds in its first year in government if it wins the election.
The party is closely studying how Scotland and Wales lowered the voting age and believes there is no reason why lowering the national voting age for general elections would need to take longer.
Sir Keir Starmer pledged to extend the franchise to younger voters in September with no indication of how quickly the policy would be implemented should it win the election. Party sources now say that while there is yet no commitment that the policy will be in the King’s Speech, it is nonetheless expected to be enacted quickly. “I would be extremely surprised if it wasn’t in the King’s Speech,” one said, describing the legislation needed as “extremely straightforward”.
I am against this. I am not convinced that 16 year olds are mature enough for the vote. They will have a lifetime of voting after they turn 18.
People love to slam the Tories for allegedly using voter ID to suppress votes against them. Will they slam this as a naked attempt to garner more youth votes for Labour? One man’s gerrymandering is another’s increasing the democratic franchise…
I was against it then went to Scotland in 2014 and some of the best arguments/campaigners on both sides were sixteen and seventeen year olds.
I'd raise it to 21 tbh. I was an idiot who knew nothing of how the world worked fresh out of school. It took a couple of years of being in the real world before I got a handle on how things worked. And a decade or so more after that...
16 year olds are children. 18 year olds are barely better, but given we allow them the right to drink, drive, get shot at for their country, leave home and tell their parents to do one at around this time, it seems to be the consensus age of majority.
Can any of us say we felt grown up at sixteen? Really?
Yet the conversations we had with sixth formers during our annual schools week as councillors were generally more thoughtful and insightful that probably 75% of those we had with ‘adults’ on the doorstep.
Mental faculties peak at around 30-40, right? If the lower limit was 21, the upper limit should really be around 60.
It peaks at 61, I reckon. Although a year’s further research might establish that it’s really at 62.
The interesting thing is that votes at 16 was often a topic raised with, or by, the pupils, and there was always a substantial number - occasionally even a majority - who felt they weren’t yet ready for the weighty responsibility of deciding who governs us. We councillors would race to be the first to share how lightly that responsibility sat on so many of their parents.
Since Brexit, my guess is that more of them will be up for it.
I would weight each vote by life expectancy at current age. That would at least offset differential turnout.
Slightly interesting poscast by Alastaire Campbell and Rory the Tory. Neither can understand why he's calling an election he's certain to lose. Rory seems to think he just wants out. Less entertaining than I expected (No 1 in the podcast charts) but no great wit or insight.... Oh! except Rory thinking Cleverly could be a good bet to take over from Rishi.
Labour is looking to introduce votes for 16 and 17-year-olds in its first year in government if it wins the election.
The party is closely studying how Scotland and Wales lowered the voting age and believes there is no reason why lowering the national voting age for general elections would need to take longer.
Sir Keir Starmer pledged to extend the franchise to younger voters in September with no indication of how quickly the policy would be implemented should it win the election. Party sources now say that while there is yet no commitment that the policy will be in the King’s Speech, it is nonetheless expected to be enacted quickly. “I would be extremely surprised if it wasn’t in the King’s Speech,” one said, describing the legislation needed as “extremely straightforward”.
I am against this. I am not convinced that 16 year olds are mature enough for the vote. They will have a lifetime of voting after they turn 18.
People love to slam the Tories for allegedly using voter ID to suppress votes against them. Will they slam this as a naked attempt to garner more youth votes for Labour? One man’s gerrymandering is another’s increasing the democratic franchise…
I was against it then went to Scotland in 2014 and some of the best arguments/campaigners on both sides were sixteen and seventeen year olds.
I'd raise it to 21 tbh. I was an idiot who knew nothing of how the world worked fresh out of school. It took a couple of years of being in the real world before I got a handle on how things worked. And a decade or so more after that...
16 year olds are children. 18 year olds are barely better, but given we allow them the right to drink, drive, get shot at for their country, leave home and tell their parents to do one at around this time, it seems to be the consensus age of majority.
Can any of us say we felt grown up at sixteen? Really?
Yet the conversations we had with sixth formers during our annual schools week as councillors were generally more thoughtful and insightful that probably 75% of those we had with ‘adults’ on the doorstep.
Mental faculties peak at around 30-40, right? If the lower limit was 21, the upper limit should really be around 60.
It peaks at 61, I reckon. Although a year’s further research might establish that it’s really at 62.
The interesting thing is that votes at 16 was often a topic raised with, or by, the pupils, and there was always a substantial number - occasionally even a majority - who felt they weren’t yet ready for the weighty responsibility of deciding who governs us. We councillors would race to be the first to share how lightly that responsibility sat on so many of their parents.
Since Brexit, my guess is that more of them will be up for it.
Being well informed has never been a requirement to vote.
As someone who is sixty soon, I recognise that I am past my peak mentally. To compensate there is the benefit of experience, so still functioning well, but aware of my limitations.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Back in the real world, the first days of Rishi's campaign have seen gaffe after gaffe so it is not surprising he will take a day off to reset. As I said earlier, this has been 2017 redux so kudos to Rishi for realising things are going pear-shaped and trying to address that.
I tbink the gaffes have been overdone by the journalists, but Sunak doesn't seem to have anything to announce. He is pottering around making these visits with nothing really to say other than weird small talk and softball questions. There are no policies.
Starmer isn’t exactly heavy on policies either. That’s entirely understandable at this point in the election. The gaffe narrative is overblown but then journalists often try to fit the facts into the narrative rather than allowing the narrative to flow from the facts. Now that wash up is over and Parliament stands prorogued the campaign will ramp up. I just hope the media decides to get bored with the current game.
Weirdly Hunt is in the Telegraph today giving some policy, saying he will end the cliffedge at £100k. Now it is actually right to thing to do and can be done without costing money, you can jiggle thresholds. Its a barrier to productivity and growth to have people refusing to take a payrise to just over £100k, instead doing less hours, longer holidays, etc. But 90% of the country won't care. It looks very out of touch.
Ok, good, and I'm sort of like: why the fuck hasn't that been addressed over the last 14 years?
It's just the sort of thing that Tory governments are meant to sort out.
There's so much shithouse gesture politics these days, devoid of substance or logic, and that applies to all the political parties who chase soundbites, memes, and the chance to piss over each other rather than sensible long-term decisions.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Back in the real world, the first days of Rishi's campaign have seen gaffe after gaffe so it is not surprising he will take a day off to reset. As I said earlier, this has been 2017 redux so kudos to Rishi for realising things are going pear-shaped and trying to address that.
I tbink the gaffes have been overdone by the journalists, but Sunak doesn't seem to have anything to announce. He is pottering around making these visits with nothing really to say other than weird small talk and softball questions. There are no policies.
Starmer isn’t exactly heavy on policies either. That’s entirely understandable at this point in the election. The gaffe narrative is overblown but then journalists often try to fit the facts into the narrative rather than allowing the narrative to flow from the facts. Now that wash up is over and Parliament stands prorogued the campaign will ramp up. I just hope the media decides to get bored with the current game.
Weirdly Hunt is in the Telegraph today giving some policy, saying he will end the cliffedge at £100k. Now it is actually right to thing to do and can be done without costing money, you can jiggle thresholds. Its a barrier to productivity and growth to have people refusing to take a payrise to just over £100k, instead doing less hours, longer holidays, etc. But 90% of the country won't care. It looks very out of touch.
Ok, good, and I'm sort of like: why the fuck hasn't that been addressed over the last 14 years?
It's just the sort of thing that Tory governments are meant to sort out.
There's so much shithouse gesture politics these days, devoid of substance or logic, and that applies to all the political parties who chase soundbites, memes, and the chance to piss over each other rather than sensible long-term decisions.
Well yes. For 14 years they have been dicking about for instance over IC + NI. They could have sorted that, combined them, sorted out the thresholds etc.
But again its symptom of politicians won't take difficult decisions that might have losers / be unpopular in the short term.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Back in the real world, the first days of Rishi's campaign have seen gaffe after gaffe so it is not surprising he will take a day off to reset. As I said earlier, this has been 2017 redux so kudos to Rishi for realising things are going pear-shaped and trying to address that.
I tbink the gaffes have been overdone by the journalists, but Sunak doesn't seem to have anything to announce. He is pottering around making these visits with nothing really to say other than weird small talk and softball questions. There are no policies.
Starmer isn’t exactly heavy on policies either. That’s entirely understandable at this point in the election. The gaffe narrative is overblown but then journalists often try to fit the facts into the narrative rather than allowing the narrative to flow from the facts. Now that wash up is over and Parliament stands prorogued the campaign will ramp up. I just hope the media decides to get bored with the current game.
Weirdly Hunt is in the Telegraph today giving some policy, saying he will end the cliffedge at £100k. Now it is actually right to thing to do and can be done without costing money, you can jiggle thresholds. Its a barrier to productivity and growth to have people refusing to take a payrise to just over £100k, instead doing less hours, longer holidays, etc. But 90% of the country won't care. It looks very out of touch.
Ok, good, and I'm sort of like: why the fuck hasn't that been addressed over the last 14 years?
It's just the sort of thing that Tory governments are meant to sort out.
There's so much shithouse gesture politics these days, devoid of substance or logic, and that applies to all the political parties who chase soundbites, memes, and the chance to piss over each other rather than sensible long-term decisions.
Well yes. For 14 years they have been dicking about for instance over IC + NI. They could have sorted that, combined them, sorted out the thresholds etc.
But again its symptom of politicians won't take difficult decisions that might have losers / be unpopular in the short term.
Labour is looking to introduce votes for 16 and 17-year-olds in its first year in government if it wins the election.
The party is closely studying how Scotland and Wales lowered the voting age and believes there is no reason why lowering the national voting age for general elections would need to take longer.
Sir Keir Starmer pledged to extend the franchise to younger voters in September with no indication of how quickly the policy would be implemented should it win the election. Party sources now say that while there is yet no commitment that the policy will be in the King’s Speech, it is nonetheless expected to be enacted quickly. “I would be extremely surprised if it wasn’t in the King’s Speech,” one said, describing the legislation needed as “extremely straightforward”.
I am against this. I am not convinced that 16 year olds are mature enough for the vote. They will have a lifetime of voting after they turn 18.
People love to slam the Tories for allegedly using voter ID to suppress votes against them. Will they slam this as a naked attempt to garner more youth votes for Labour? One man’s gerrymandering is another’s increasing the democratic franchise…
I was against it then went to Scotland in 2014 and some of the best arguments/campaigners on both sides were sixteen and seventeen year olds.
I'd raise it to 21 tbh. I was an idiot who knew nothing of how the world worked fresh out of school. It took a couple of years of being in the real world before I got a handle on how things worked. And a decade or so more after that...
16 year olds are children. 18 year olds are barely better, but given we allow them the right to drink, drive, get shot at for their country, leave home and tell their parents to do one at around this time, it seems to be the consensus age of majority.
Can any of us say we felt grown up at sixteen? Really?
Yet the conversations we had with sixth formers during our annual schools week as councillors were generally more thoughtful and insightful that probably 75% of those we had with ‘adults’ on the doorstep.
Mental faculties peak at around 30-40, right? If the lower limit was 21, the upper limit should really be around 60.
It peaks at 61, I reckon. Although a year’s further research might establish that it’s really at 62.
The interesting thing is that votes at 16 was often a topic raised with, or by, the pupils, and there was always a substantial number - occasionally even a majority - who felt they weren’t yet ready for the weighty responsibility of deciding who governs us. We councillors would race to be the first to share how lightly that responsibility sat on so many of their parents.
Since Brexit, my guess is that more of them will be up for it.
I would weight each vote by life expectancy at current age. That would at least offset differential turnout.
The Tories would introduce policies to shorten the life expectancy of younger people!
Yes, not long term thinking, I know, but that's nothing new
Slightly interesting poscast by Alastaire Campbell and Rory the Tory. Neither can understand why he's calling an election he's certain to lose. Rory seems to think he just wants out. Less entertaining than I expected (No 1 in the podcast charts) but no great wit or insight.... Oh! except Rory thinking Cleverly could be a good bet to take over from Rishi.
Why are the Tories talking about unfunded tax cuts for the wealthy? Do they think it’s an electoral win to resurrect Trussonomics? They should steer well clear from bold taxation moves. It undermines the core offer of Sunak and Hunt.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Good news for Richi on Day 4 of the campaign.
As far as I can tell, he hasn't made any colossal mistakes today.
Yet.
Nadine Dorries is appalled (on X)
"Rishi is taking Saturday off.
Boris Johnson worked every hour that god gave him during election campaign. Every single hour. The idea of a day at home - even a couple of hours at home other than sleeping was out of the question. And this is only day 3!"
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Back in the real world, the first days of Rishi's campaign have seen gaffe after gaffe so it is not surprising he will take a day off to reset. As I said earlier, this has been 2017 redux so kudos to Rishi for realising things are going pear-shaped and trying to address that.
I tbink the gaffes have been overdone by the journalists, but Sunak doesn't seem to have anything to announce. He is pottering around making these visits with nothing really to say other than weird small talk and softball questions. There are no policies.
Starmer isn’t exactly heavy on policies either. That’s entirely understandable at this point in the election. The gaffe narrative is overblown but then journalists often try to fit the facts into the narrative rather than allowing the narrative to flow from the facts. Now that wash up is over and Parliament stands prorogued the campaign will ramp up. I just hope the media decides to get bored with the current game.
Weirdly Hunt is in the Telegraph today giving some policy, saying he will end the cliffedge at £100k. Now it is actually right to thing to do and can be done without costing money, you can jiggle thresholds. Its a barrier to productivity and growth to have people refusing to take a payrise to just over £100k, instead doing less hours, longer holidays, etc. But 90% of the country won't care. It looks very out of touch.
Ok, good, and I'm sort of like: why the fuck hasn't that been addressed over the last 14 years?
It's just the sort of thing that Tory governments are meant to sort out.
There's so much shithouse gesture politics these days, devoid of substance or logic, and that applies to all the political parties who chase soundbites, memes, and the chance to piss over each other rather than sensible long-term decisions.
Well yes. For 14 years they have been dicking about for instance over IC + NI. They could have sorted that, combined them, sorted out the thresholds etc.
But again its symptom of politicians won't take difficult decisions that might have losers / be unpopular in the short term.
Cf Council Tax banding
I was always surprised that Lib Dems in coalition didn't demand local income tax as replacement for council tax (as was their policy for 2010).
Why are the Tories talking about unfunded tax cuts for the wealthy? Do they think it’s an electoral win to resurrect Trussonomics? They should steer well clear from bold taxation moves. It undermines the core offer of Sunak and Hunt.
Such a confusing message.
£100k cliffedge is easy to change without costing anything or giving the rich a tax cut (you can actually make them pay more). You can just change thresholds. It came about as poorly thought through wheeze by Brown, but Tories never brave enough to sort it.
Not really in favour of lowering the voting age to 16. But I would get behind enfranchising EU Citizens who are resident in the UK. If commonwealth citizens can vote, then so should taxpaying citizens from our neighbours.
Using YouGov numbers from their megapoll, Westminster constituency data from the England and Wales census, and assuming no variation by constituency and that the age distribution of an electorate accounts for 100%* of the vote share, you can put together a rudimentary projection for the election.
This finds that Labour would win every single seat in England and Wales. This is even the case after adjusting for differential turnout, with younger people less likely to vote. The closest the Conservatives would come is in Isle of Wight East, but Labour would still have a 7,000 vote majority. The biggest Labour win would be in Poplar and Limehouse, at 26,000.
This is obviously nonsense, with Labour winning much larger majorities in 2019 (eg Knowsley at 40,000). But it does show the basic demographics are a major weakness for the Conservatives, with other factors like housing tenure and perhaps even the culture war what will bag them their constituencies. It suggests that these other factors differentiate constituencies rather than bring them closer together.
I also looked at the left/right wing split, adding Reform to the Tory vote and Green to the Labour vote. Labour still wins every seat, but it’s much closer. For example, Christchurch has a left wing lead of only 1,700 in this age-based projection. Older people voting for Reform is disaster for the Conservatives, while younger people voting Green is only an inconvenience for Labour.
I’ll post some more fatuous analysis based on employment status and housing tenure over the next couple of days.
*I’ve previously worked out that age distribution accounts for only around 40% of Tory vote share in Westminster constituencies.
Why are the Tories talking about unfunded tax cuts for the wealthy? Do they think it’s an electoral win to resurrect Trussonomics? They should steer well clear from bold taxation moves. It undermines the core offer of Sunak and Hunt.
Such a confusing message.
£100k cliffedge is easy to change without costing anything. You can just change thresholds.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Back in the real world, the first days of Rishi's campaign have seen gaffe after gaffe so it is not surprising he will take a day off to reset. As I said earlier, this has been 2017 redux so kudos to Rishi for realising things are going pear-shaped and trying to address that.
I tbink the gaffes have been overdone by the journalists, but Sunak doesn't seem to have anything to announce. He is pottering around making these visits with nothing really to say other than weird small talk and softball questions. There are no policies.
Starmer isn’t exactly heavy on policies either. That’s entirely understandable at this point in the election. The gaffe narrative is overblown but then journalists often try to fit the facts into the narrative rather than allowing the narrative to flow from the facts. Now that wash up is over and Parliament stands prorogued the campaign will ramp up. I just hope the media decides to get bored with the current game.
Weirdly Hunt is in the Telegraph today giving some policy, saying he will end the cliffedge at £100k. Now it is actually right to thing to do and can be done without costing money, you can jiggle thresholds. Its a barrier to productivity and growth to have people refusing to take a payrise to just over £100k, instead doing less hours, longer holidays, etc. But 90% of the country won't care. It looks very out of touch.
Ok, good, and I'm sort of like: why the fuck hasn't that been addressed over the last 14 years?
It's just the sort of thing that Tory governments are meant to sort out.
There's so much shithouse gesture politics these days, devoid of substance or logic, and that applies to all the political parties who chase soundbites, memes, and the chance to piss over each other rather than sensible long-term decisions.
Well yes. For 14 years they have been dicking about for instance over IC + NI. They could have sorted that, combined them, sorted out the thresholds etc.
But again its symptom of politicians won't take difficult decisions that might have losers / be unpopular in the short term.
Cf Council Tax banding
I was always surprised that Lib Dems in coalition didn't demand local income tax as replacement for council tax (as was their policy for 2010).
Because both the Tories and the Civil Service said it was not possible/would frighten the horses
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Good news for Richi on Day 4 of the campaign.
As far as I can tell, he hasn't made any colossal mistakes today.
Yet.
Nadine Dorries is appalled (on X)
"Rishi is taking Saturday off.
Boris Johnson worked every hour that god gave him during election campaign. Every single hour. The idea of a day at home - even a couple of hours at home other than sleeping was out of the question. And this is only day 3!"
(Off topic how do you post photos etc on here?)
She should get out there and help some ex-colleagues......to lose.
Why are the Tories talking about unfunded tax cuts for the wealthy? Do they think it’s an electoral win to resurrect Trussonomics? They should steer well clear from bold taxation moves. It undermines the core offer of Sunak and Hunt.
Such a confusing message.
£100k cliffedge is easy to change without costing anything. You can just change thresholds.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Back in the real world, the first days of Rishi's campaign have seen gaffe after gaffe so it is not surprising he will take a day off to reset. As I said earlier, this has been 2017 redux so kudos to Rishi for realising things are going pear-shaped and trying to address that.
I tbink the gaffes have been overdone by the journalists, but Sunak doesn't seem to have anything to announce. He is pottering around making these visits with nothing really to say other than weird small talk and softball questions. There are no policies.
Starmer isn’t exactly heavy on policies either. That’s entirely understandable at this point in the election. The gaffe narrative is overblown but then journalists often try to fit the facts into the narrative rather than allowing the narrative to flow from the facts. Now that wash up is over and Parliament stands prorogued the campaign will ramp up. I just hope the media decides to get bored with the current game.
Weirdly Hunt is in the Telegraph today giving some policy, saying he will end the cliffedge at £100k. Now it is actually right to thing to do and can be done without costing money, you can jiggle thresholds. Its a barrier to productivity and growth to have people refusing to take a payrise to just over £100k, instead doing less hours, longer holidays, etc. But 90% of the country won't care. It looks very out of touch.
Ok, good, and I'm sort of like: why the fuck hasn't that been addressed over the last 14 years?
It's just the sort of thing that Tory governments are meant to sort out.
There's so much shithouse gesture politics these days, devoid of substance or logic, and that applies to all the political parties who chase soundbites, memes, and the chance to piss over each other rather than sensible long-term decisions.
Well yes. For 14 years they have been dicking about for instance over IC + NI. They could have sorted that, combined them, sorted out the thresholds etc.
But again its symptom of politicians won't take difficult decisions that might have losers / be unpopular in the short term.
Cf Council Tax banding
I was always surprised that Lib Dems in coalition didn't demand local income tax as replacement for council tax (as was their policy for 2010).
Because both the Tories and the Civil Service said it was not possible/would frighten the horses
Everything is apparently impossible according to the civil service. Over course of 10 years you can move to a model of combined IC / NI with local IC. But the former got repeatedly kicked into the long grass.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Back in the real world, the first days of Rishi's campaign have seen gaffe after gaffe so it is not surprising he will take a day off to reset. As I said earlier, this has been 2017 redux so kudos to Rishi for realising things are going pear-shaped and trying to address that.
I tbink the gaffes have been overdone by the journalists, but Sunak doesn't seem to have anything to announce. He is pottering around making these visits with nothing really to say other than weird small talk and softball questions. There are no policies.
Starmer isn’t exactly heavy on policies either. That’s entirely understandable at this point in the election. The gaffe narrative is overblown but then journalists often try to fit the facts into the narrative rather than allowing the narrative to flow from the facts. Now that wash up is over and Parliament stands prorogued the campaign will ramp up. I just hope the media decides to get bored with the current game.
Weirdly Hunt is in the Telegraph today giving some policy, saying he will end the cliffedge at £100k. Now it is actually right to thing to do and can be done without costing money, you can jiggle thresholds. Its a barrier to productivity and growth to have people refusing to take a payrise to just over £100k, instead doing less hours, longer holidays, etc. But 90% of the country won't care. It looks very out of touch.
Ok, good, and I'm sort of like: why the fuck hasn't that been addressed over the last 14 years?
It's just the sort of thing that Tory governments are meant to sort out.
There's so much shithouse gesture politics these days, devoid of substance or logic, and that applies to all the political parties who chase soundbites, memes, and the chance to piss over each other rather than sensible long-term decisions.
Well yes. For 14 years they have been dicking about for instance over IC + NI. They could have sorted that, combined them, sorted out the thresholds etc.
But again its symptom of politicians won't take difficult decisions that might have losers / be unpopular in the short term.
Cf Council Tax banding
Tbf, that's just tidying up. It's a bit silly but we can all live with it.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Back in the real world, the first days of Rishi's campaign have seen gaffe after gaffe so it is not surprising he will take a day off to reset. As I said earlier, this has been 2017 redux so kudos to Rishi for realising things are going pear-shaped and trying to address that.
I tbink the gaffes have been overdone by the journalists, but Sunak doesn't seem to have anything to announce. He is pottering around making these visits with nothing really to say other than weird small talk and softball questions. There are no policies.
Starmer isn’t exactly heavy on policies either. That’s entirely understandable at this point in the election. The gaffe narrative is overblown but then journalists often try to fit the facts into the narrative rather than allowing the narrative to flow from the facts. Now that wash up is over and Parliament stands prorogued the campaign will ramp up. I just hope the media decides to get bored with the current game.
Weirdly Hunt is in the Telegraph today giving some policy, saying he will end the cliffedge at £100k. Now it is actually right to thing to do and can be done without costing money, you can jiggle thresholds. Its a barrier to productivity and growth to have people refusing to take a payrise to just over £100k, instead doing less hours, longer holidays, etc. But 90% of the country won't care. It looks very out of touch.
Ok, good, and I'm sort of like: why the fuck hasn't that been addressed over the last 14 years?
It's just the sort of thing that Tory governments are meant to sort out.
There's so much shithouse gesture politics these days, devoid of substance or logic, and that applies to all the political parties who chase soundbites, memes, and the chance to piss over each other rather than sensible long-term decisions.
Well yes. For 14 years they have been dicking about for instance over IC + NI. They could have sorted that, combined them, sorted out the thresholds etc.
But again its symptom of politicians won't take difficult decisions that might have losers / be unpopular in the short term.
Cf Council Tax banding
I was always surprised that Lib Dems in coalition didn't demand local income tax as replacement for council tax (as was their policy for 2010).
Why are the Tories talking about unfunded tax cuts for the wealthy? Do they think it’s an electoral win to resurrect Trussonomics? They should steer well clear from bold taxation moves. It undermines the core offer of Sunak and Hunt.
Such a confusing message.
£100k cliffedge is easy to change without costing anything. You can just change thresholds.
Bad optics. They should steer well clear.
Fuck the optics. The £100k cliffedge is a disaster that has serious real-world economic and productivity impacts.
The fact that everything in politics is about "optics" is one of our biggest problems.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Back in the real world, the first days of Rishi's campaign have seen gaffe after gaffe so it is not surprising he will take a day off to reset. As I said earlier, this has been 2017 redux so kudos to Rishi for realising things are going pear-shaped and trying to address that.
I tbink the gaffes have been overdone by the journalists, but Sunak doesn't seem to have anything to announce. He is pottering around making these visits with nothing really to say other than weird small talk and softball questions. There are no policies.
Starmer isn’t exactly heavy on policies either. That’s entirely understandable at this point in the election. The gaffe narrative is overblown but then journalists often try to fit the facts into the narrative rather than allowing the narrative to flow from the facts. Now that wash up is over and Parliament stands prorogued the campaign will ramp up. I just hope the media decides to get bored with the current game.
Weirdly Hunt is in the Telegraph today giving some policy, saying he will end the cliffedge at £100k. Now it is actually right to thing to do and can be done without costing money, you can jiggle thresholds. Its a barrier to productivity and growth to have people refusing to take a payrise to just over £100k, instead doing less hours, longer holidays, etc. But 90% of the country won't care. It looks very out of touch.
Ok, good, and I'm sort of like: why the fuck hasn't that been addressed over the last 14 years?
It's just the sort of thing that Tory governments are meant to sort out.
There's so much shithouse gesture politics these days, devoid of substance or logic, and that applies to all the political parties who chase soundbites, memes, and the chance to piss over each other rather than sensible long-term decisions.
Well yes. For 14 years they have been dicking about for instance over IC + NI. They could have sorted that, combined them, sorted out the thresholds etc.
But again its symptom of politicians won't take difficult decisions that might have losers / be unpopular in the short term.
Cf Council Tax banding
I was always surprised that Lib Dems in coalition didn't demand local income tax as replacement for council tax (as was their policy for 2010).
Vetoed by the Tories.
I’ve always been convinced that the Lib Dem’s could have been far tougher and extracted far more out of the coalition. The AV referendum was a poor avoidable outcome. They had the Tories by the short and curlies in 2010.
This is one of those election campaigns that mirrors one of those pub football games where one side is so much better than the other that ,to make a game of it. they start to lend a few of their players to the other side- just to keep it interesting - Here have Jezza Corbyn and Galloway .Tell you what we will muck up selection in Leicester East for you to have a chance there- Even Reform are doing it by not running Farage
And yet.... and yet. The vast majority of people who will vote on July 4 couldn't give a tinkers cuss about Gove stepping down or Rishi standing near a sign saying 'exit' or the rain, or Starmer having a stinker of an interview this morning or Newsnight being bad for Holden. They're waiting to see manifestos and enjoy an egging if one transpires. The whole narrative of 'disaster campaign' has been invented in 48 hours and exists in the heads of political obsessives like us. There are people on social media tonight convinced a funny photo and asking Welsh dudes about footy means Canada 93 is nailed on. I'm guessing it's their first rodeo.
I agree, but - the media nonetheless set a tone for how the parties and their leaders are perceived.
Why are the Tories talking about unfunded tax cuts for the wealthy? Do they think it’s an electoral win to resurrect Trussonomics? They should steer well clear from bold taxation moves. It undermines the core offer of Sunak and Hunt.
Such a confusing message.
£100k cliffedge is easy to change without costing anything. You can just change thresholds.
Bad optics. They should steer well clear.
Fuck the optics. The £100k cliffedge is a disaster that has serious real-world economic and productivity impacts.
The fact that everything in politics is about "optics" is one of our biggest problems.
Real leaders lead.
The thing is remember bedroom tax. That bad terrible optics, but 5 years later Tories won a majority. And of course Thatcher did load of things that were seen as bad optics. You would think they would learn, Do it early in a parliament, stick to it and the evidence is the public generally ask a wider question at a GE, have roughly the right decisions been made, am I better off, etc.
He needs to team-talk and lift up his whole MP and candidate base. Get them to believe.
One senses he hasn't really bothered.
Isn't the poor morale a symptom rather than the disease?
This is a government that has run out of ideas, cursed by the long term damage caused by short term policies.
Considering that we had to have an election within months the lack of preparedness is astonishing.
General wisdom was an election in May, and it would appear on that basis, Labour and the Lib Dems are out of the blocks already. Nonetheless the Conservatives seem to have wrong footed Reform and Farage, which is all to the good, but in the process wrong-footed themselves.
The announcement in the rain was incredibly unwise. Millions will have caught up with that, but it wasn't the end of the World. But yesterday's Titanic visit, who the hell dreamed that one up?
Fortunately for Sunak the BBC in particular are embargoing Sunak gaffes, so no one has heard about the Titanic, the Euros error or the two boiler suited ringers.
I usually think I have general elections in the bag, betting wise, the only two I have called wrong, were 2010 and 2017, I was pretty sure Major would beat Kinnock, also Cameron would beat Miliband. The one election that baffles me still is 2017, I don't really go for all this, she run a poor campaign.I think most people have made their mind up, when the election is called, and the vast majority take very little notice of any campaigns.The question is how did the polsters get 2017 so wrong, and could it happen again.In many ways Corbyn and Johnson are similar, both entirely unsuited to the job of PM, but yet managing to get people to back them over a cliff. This time round Sunak and Starmer, are both fairly uninspiring, but at this stage Sunak still seems to have the support of the media, which could still be vital. So who wins, I think people are forgetting Labour are coming from a long way back, I think anywhere between a 50 seat Labour majority to a hung parliament is my call, tactical voting could hold the key, if it materialises
Why are the Tories talking about unfunded tax cuts for the wealthy? Do they think it’s an electoral win to resurrect Trussonomics? They should steer well clear from bold taxation moves. It undermines the core offer of Sunak and Hunt.
Such a confusing message.
£100k cliffedge is easy to change without costing anything. You can just change thresholds.
Bad optics. They should steer well clear.
Fuck the optics. The £100k cliffedge is a disaster that has serious real-world economic and productivity impacts.
The fact that everything in politics is about "optics" is one of our biggest problems.
Real leaders lead.
This was a party political broadcast by the Liz Truss Party.
Why are the Tories talking about unfunded tax cuts for the wealthy? Do they think it’s an electoral win to resurrect Trussonomics? They should steer well clear from bold taxation moves. It undermines the core offer of Sunak and Hunt.
Such a confusing message.
£100k cliffedge is easy to change without costing anything. You can just change thresholds.
Bad optics. They should steer well clear.
Fuck the optics. The £100k cliffedge is a disaster that has serious real-world economic and productivity impacts.
The fact that everything in politics is about "optics" is one of our biggest problems.
Real leaders lead.
This was a party political broadcast by the Liz Truss Party.
Liz problem wasn't unpopular / optics....it was there was no real plan, it was just fantasy economics, which the markets wouldn't back.
Why are the Tories talking about unfunded tax cuts for the wealthy? Do they think it’s an electoral win to resurrect Trussonomics? They should steer well clear from bold taxation moves. It undermines the core offer of Sunak and Hunt.
Such a confusing message.
£100k cliffedge is easy to change without costing anything. You can just change thresholds.
Bad optics. They should steer well clear.
Fuck the optics. The £100k cliffedge is a disaster that has serious real-world economic and productivity impacts.
The fact that everything in politics is about "optics" is one of our biggest problems.
Real leaders lead.
The thing is remember bedroom tax. That bad terrible optics, but 5 years later Tories won a majority. And of course Thatcher did load of things that were seen as bad optics. You would think they would learn, Do it early in a parliament, stick to it and the evidence is the public generally ask a wider question at a GE, have roughly the right decisions been made, am I better off, etc.
We have too many weak political leaders who prefer to follow fads in public opinion rather than lead it.
He needs to team-talk and lift up his whole MP and candidate base. Get them to believe.
One senses he hasn't really bothered.
Isn't the poor morale a symptom rather than the disease?
This is a government that has run out of ideas, cursed by the long term damage caused by short term policies.
Considering that we had to have an election within months the lack of preparedness is astonishing.
General wisdom was an election in May, and it would appear on that basis, Labour and the Lib Dems are out of the blocks already. Nonetheless the Conservatives seem to have wrong footed Reform and Farage, which is all to the good, but in the process wrong-footed themselves.
The announcement in the rain was incredibly unwise. Millions will have caught up with that, but it wasn't the end of the World. But yesterday's Titanic visit, who the hell dreamed that one up?
Fortunately for Sunak the BBC in particular are embargoing Sunak gaffes, so no one has heard about the Titanic, the Euros error or the two boiler suited ringers.
Sadly for Sunak and Robbie Gibb, hardly anyone gets their news from the Beeb any more…….
Why are the Tories talking about unfunded tax cuts for the wealthy? Do they think it’s an electoral win to resurrect Trussonomics? They should steer well clear from bold taxation moves. It undermines the core offer of Sunak and Hunt.
Such a confusing message.
£100k cliffedge is easy to change without costing anything. You can just change thresholds.
Bad optics. They should steer well clear.
Fuck the optics. The £100k cliffedge is a disaster that has serious real-world economic and productivity impacts.
The fact that everything in politics is about "optics" is one of our biggest problems.
Real leaders lead.
This was a party political broadcast by the Liz Truss Party.
Again, a silly little remark trying to play it for laughs rather than engage in the substance.
Even Nick Palmer ex-MP - who is pretty left-wing, let's remember - agrees this is an issue and regrets his part in bringing it in. Which was also about "optics".
Truss didn't propose to remove the 100k tax trap. It's one of the biggest marks against her 6 weeks in office, because she was also going for "optics" but of a different kind.
Why are the Tories talking about unfunded tax cuts for the wealthy? Do they think it’s an electoral win to resurrect Trussonomics? They should steer well clear from bold taxation moves. It undermines the core offer of Sunak and Hunt.
Such a confusing message.
£100k cliffedge is easy to change without costing anything. You can just change thresholds.
Bad optics. They should steer well clear.
Fuck the optics. The £100k cliffedge is a disaster that has serious real-world economic and productivity impacts.
The fact that everything in politics is about "optics" is one of our biggest problems.
Real leaders lead.
This was a party political broadcast by the Liz Truss Party.
Liz problem wasn't unpopular / optics....it was there was no real plan, it was just fantasy economics, which the markets wouldn't back.
Surely it was both bad economics and bad politics. With public services widely seen to be on their knees tax cuts for the super rich were a mad political move.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Back in the real world, the first days of Rishi's campaign have seen gaffe after gaffe so it is not surprising he will take a day off to reset. As I said earlier, this has been 2017 redux so kudos to Rishi for realising things are going pear-shaped and trying to address that.
I tbink the gaffes have been overdone by the journalists, but Sunak doesn't seem to have anything to announce. He is pottering around making these visits with nothing really to say other than weird small talk and softball questions. There are no policies.
Starmer isn’t exactly heavy on policies either. That’s entirely understandable at this point in the election. The gaffe narrative is overblown but then journalists often try to fit the facts into the narrative rather than allowing the narrative to flow from the facts. Now that wash up is over and Parliament stands prorogued the campaign will ramp up. I just hope the media decides to get bored with the current game.
Weirdly Hunt is in the Telegraph today giving some policy, saying he will end the cliffedge at £100k. Now it is actually right to thing to do and can be done without costing money, you can jiggle thresholds. Its a barrier to productivity and growth to have people refusing to take a payrise to just over £100k, instead doing less hours, longer holidays, etc. But 90% of the country won't care. It looks very out of touch.
Ok, good, and I'm sort of like: why the fuck hasn't that been addressed over the last 14 years?
It's just the sort of thing that Tory governments are meant to sort out.
There's so much shithouse gesture politics these days, devoid of substance or logic, and that applies to all the political parties who chase soundbites, memes, and the chance to piss over each other rather than sensible long-term decisions.
Well yes. For 14 years they have been dicking about for instance over IC + NI. They could have sorted that, combined them, sorted out the thresholds etc.
But again its symptom of politicians won't take difficult decisions that might have losers / be unpopular in the short term.
Cf Council Tax banding
I was always surprised that Lib Dems in coalition didn't demand local income tax as replacement for council tax (as was their policy for 2010).
Don't you think Cameron managed the LDs beautifully? They were so high on their own supply that they capitulated over tuition fees in exchange for a half-hearted referendum on AV (a voting system they weren't too keen on anyway).
I usually think I have general elections in the bag, betting wise, the only two I have called wrong, were 2010 and 2017, I was pretty sure Major would beat Kinnock, also Cameron would beat Miliband. The one election that baffles me still is 2017, I don't really go for all this, she run a poor campaign.I think most people have made their mind up, when the election is called, and the vast majority take very little notice of any campaigns.The question is how did the polsters get 2017 so wrong, and could it happen again.In many ways Corbyn and Johnson are similar, both entirely unsuited to the job of PM, but yet managing to get people to back them over a cliff. This time round Sunak and Starmer, are both fairly uninspiring, but at this stage Sunak still seems to have the support of the media, which could still be vital. So who wins, I think people are forgetting Labour are coming from a long way back, I think anywhere between a 50 seat Labour majority to a hung parliament is my call, tactical voting could hold the key, if it materialises
Not sure the media are still supporting Sunak Today's front pages:
Daily Express "Now Gove Quits! Ministers shock exit rocks Tories" Daily Mail: "Reeves: I'll never play fast and loose with your money"
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Back in the real world, the first days of Rishi's campaign have seen gaffe after gaffe so it is not surprising he will take a day off to reset. As I said earlier, this has been 2017 redux so kudos to Rishi for realising things are going pear-shaped and trying to address that.
I tbink the gaffes have been overdone by the journalists, but Sunak doesn't seem to have anything to announce. He is pottering around making these visits with nothing really to say other than weird small talk and softball questions. There are no policies.
Starmer isn’t exactly heavy on policies either. That’s entirely understandable at this point in the election. The gaffe narrative is overblown but then journalists often try to fit the facts into the narrative rather than allowing the narrative to flow from the facts. Now that wash up is over and Parliament stands prorogued the campaign will ramp up. I just hope the media decides to get bored with the current game.
Weirdly Hunt is in the Telegraph today giving some policy, saying he will end the cliffedge at £100k. Now it is actually right to thing to do and can be done without costing money, you can jiggle thresholds. Its a barrier to productivity and growth to have people refusing to take a payrise to just over £100k, instead doing less hours, longer holidays, etc. But 90% of the country won't care. It looks very out of touch.
Ok, good, and I'm sort of like: why the fuck hasn't that been addressed over the last 14 years?
It's just the sort of thing that Tory governments are meant to sort out.
There's so much shithouse gesture politics these days, devoid of substance or logic, and that applies to all the political parties who chase soundbites, memes, and the chance to piss over each other rather than sensible long-term decisions.
Well yes. For 14 years they have been dicking about for instance over IC + NI. They could have sorted that, combined them, sorted out the thresholds etc.
But again its symptom of politicians won't take difficult decisions that might have losers / be unpopular in the short term.
Cf Council Tax banding
I was always surprised that Lib Dems in coalition didn't demand local income tax as replacement for council tax (as was their policy for 2010).
Don't you think Cameron managed the LDs beautifully? They were so high on their own supply that they capitulated over tuition fees in exchange for a half-hearted referendum on AV (an voting system they weren't too keen on anyway).
One story was that the Conservative negotiators were surprised to find their LibDem counterparts did not even know what was in their own manifesto.
I usually think I have general elections in the bag, betting wise, the only two I have called wrong, were 2010 and 2017, I was pretty sure Major would beat Kinnock, also Cameron would beat Miliband. The one election that baffles me still is 2017, I don't really go for all this, she run a poor campaign.I think most people have made their mind up, when the election is called, and the vast majority take very little notice of any campaigns.The question is how did the polsters get 2017 so wrong, and could it happen again.In many ways Corbyn and Johnson are similar, both entirely unsuited to the job of PM, but yet managing to get people to back them over a cliff. This time round Sunak and Starmer, are both fairly uninspiring, but at this stage Sunak still seems to have the support of the media, which could still be vital. So who wins, I think people are forgetting Labour are coming from a long way back, I think anywhere between a 50 seat Labour majority to a hung parliament is my call, tactical voting could hold the key, if it materialises
Not sure the media are still supporting Sunak Today's front pages:
Daily Express "Now Gove Quits! Ministers shock exit rocks Tories" Daily Mail: "Reeves: I'll never play fast and loose with your money"
Even Telegraph big piece on Starmer was reasonably positive. Certainly not a hit piece, with about the worst they said was he can get a tad sweary when people mess up.
Why are the Tories talking about unfunded tax cuts for the wealthy? Do they think it’s an electoral win to resurrect Trussonomics? They should steer well clear from bold taxation moves. It undermines the core offer of Sunak and Hunt.
Such a confusing message.
£100k cliffedge is easy to change without costing anything. You can just change thresholds.
Bad optics. They should steer well clear.
Fuck the optics. The £100k cliffedge is a disaster that has serious real-world economic and productivity impacts.
The fact that everything in politics is about "optics" is one of our biggest problems.
Real leaders lead.
This was a party political broadcast by the Liz Truss Party.
Again, a silly little remark trying to play it for laughs rather than engage in the substance.
Even Nick Palmer ex-MP - who is pretty left-wing, let's remember - agrees this is an issue and regrets his part in bringing it in. Which was also about "optics".
Truss didn't propose to remove the 100k tax trap. It's one of the biggest marks against her 6 weeks in office, because she was also going for "optics" but of a different kind.
Politics is all about priorities and context. Making a feature of tax thresholds for the well off (however poorly designed) is not good politics today. It’s the sort of thing you do in budgets not election campaigns. You have to care about how policies are interpreted. As soon as you say 100k you’re on the defensive having to explain it.
Is it theoretically possible to stop the general election at this point? Like, if Sunak just tore off his clothes and disappeared into the sea, could someone actually go to the palace and say "actually, don't dissolve parliament yet"?
It would be rather embarrassing but there's nothing technically to stop it until Parliament is dissolved next Friday.
We had an on/off Prorogation five years ago. It was cancelled because the Supreme Court decided Boris had bamboozled Her Late Majesty into signing something she shouldn't have. In fact HLM was not that daft. She acted as the PM advised her, relying on the courts to toss it out. This is how the constitution works.
No, it was granted because nobody showed a legal basis on which to refuse it.
It was eventually ruled wrong under a very obscure Scottish case from over a hundred years ago that very few people knew about. Including most Scottish judges.
Hale seriously over-egged the pudding in her declarations on the subject that it was ‘in effect a blank piece of paper’ which was rather typical of her bombastic behaviour for all her knowledge of English family law had few peers.
I’ll criticise Cummings any day of the week but to suggest he or anyone else involved including the Queen thought they were acting illegally (rather than just stupidly) is not correct.
I think you are rewriting history a bit there. Loads of people thought it was illegal at the time. On the day Johnson suspended parliament Speaker Bercow called it a "constitutional outrage", John Major suggested it was illegal, and legal challenges were launched. Of course Johnson and Cummings knew what they were doing might well be illegal, they just didn't care.
That is simply incorrect. Lots of people thought it was outrageous and therefore *must be* illegal, but of the five courts that ruled on it three, including one in Scotland, while they expressed disquiet at it commented that it was legal.
Cummings is stupid, arrogant, bombastic, stuck up, incompetent and lazy but even he isn't so dumb as to deliberately commit a crime of that magnitude. He might well have not cared about Covid because he thought he could get away with it, but on this one the royal prerogative of prorogation was ancient, well-established and had never been challenged before.
BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
No wonder we have a productivity problem in the UK when the top boss doesn't work overtime at a crucial time.
Time spent planning is usually time well spent, but surely the time should have been taken last weekend?
I’m sure planning has been done prior to kickoff. It’s a Bank Holiday weekend I can forgive Sunak wanting to take a day to firm up some of the details of the campaign plan and possibly to get some decent time with his wife and children before the full onslaught. I hope Keir and Ed Davey avail themselves of similar opportunities.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Back in the real world, the first days of Rishi's campaign have seen gaffe after gaffe so it is not surprising he will take a day off to reset. As I said earlier, this has been 2017 redux so kudos to Rishi for realising things are going pear-shaped and trying to address that.
I tbink the gaffes have been overdone by the journalists, but Sunak doesn't seem to have anything to announce. He is pottering around making these visits with nothing really to say other than weird small talk and softball questions. There are no policies.
Starmer isn’t exactly heavy on policies either. That’s entirely understandable at this point in the election. The gaffe narrative is overblown but then journalists often try to fit the facts into the narrative rather than allowing the narrative to flow from the facts. Now that wash up is over and Parliament stands prorogued the campaign will ramp up. I just hope the media decides to get bored with the current game.
Weirdly Hunt is in the Telegraph today giving some policy, saying he will end the cliffedge at £100k. Now it is actually right to thing to do and can be done without costing money, you can jiggle thresholds. Its a barrier to productivity and growth to have people refusing to take a payrise to just over £100k, instead doing less hours, longer holidays, etc. But 90% of the country won't care. It looks very out of touch.
Ok, good, and I'm sort of like: why the fuck hasn't that been addressed over the last 14 years?
It's just the sort of thing that Tory governments are meant to sort out.
There's so much shithouse gesture politics these days, devoid of substance or logic, and that applies to all the political parties who chase soundbites, memes, and the chance to piss over each other rather than sensible long-term decisions.
Well yes. For 14 years they have been dicking about for instance over IC + NI. They could have sorted that, combined them, sorted out the thresholds etc.
But again its symptom of politicians won't take difficult decisions that might have losers / be unpopular in the short term.
Cf Council Tax banding
I was always surprised that Lib Dems in coalition didn't demand local income tax as replacement for council tax (as was their policy for 2010).
Don't you think Cameron managed the LDs beautifully? They were so high on their own supply that they capitulated over tuition fees in exchange for a half-hearted referendum on AV (a voting system they weren't too keen on anyway).
They got a graduate tax, which is effectively what Vince Cable and Nick Clegg argued for post election.
They did absolutely renege on their manifesto commitments though, which promised abolition in black and white.
Why are the Tories talking about unfunded tax cuts for the wealthy? Do they think it’s an electoral win to resurrect Trussonomics? They should steer well clear from bold taxation moves. It undermines the core offer of Sunak and Hunt.
Such a confusing message.
£100k cliffedge is easy to change without costing anything. You can just change thresholds.
Bad optics. They should steer well clear.
Fuck the optics. The £100k cliffedge is a disaster that has serious real-world economic and productivity impacts.
The fact that everything in politics is about "optics" is one of our biggest problems.
Real leaders lead.
This was a party political broadcast by the Liz Truss Party.
Again, a silly little remark trying to play it for laughs rather than engage in the substance.
Even Nick Palmer ex-MP - who is pretty left-wing, let's remember - agrees this is an issue and regrets his part in bringing it in. Which was also about "optics".
Truss didn't propose to remove the 100k tax trap. It's one of the biggest marks against her 6 weeks in office, because she was also going for "optics" but of a different kind.
Politics is all about priorities and context. Making a feature of tax thresholds for the well off (however poorly designed) is not good politics today. It’s the sort of thing you do in budgets not election campaigns. You have to care about how policies are interpreted. As soon as you say 100k you’re on the defensive having to explain it.
It should be a priority. We elect our politicians to understand public opinion and then to lead it in the best interests of the country. Lots of people are now deliberately choosing jobs or working hours to avoid this tax-trap and it's sapping our productivity as a result. Even I've thought about giving up at times as I'm right in the middle of it.
On the "well-off" point here's one for you: the 2009 budget introduced the 100k cliff edge from April 2010, just before that election. That's 100k in 2010 pounds.
Do you know what that's worth today, inflation-adjusted for 2024?
Why are the Tories talking about unfunded tax cuts for the wealthy? Do they think it’s an electoral win to resurrect Trussonomics? They should steer well clear from bold taxation moves. It undermines the core offer of Sunak and Hunt.
Such a confusing message.
£100k cliffedge is easy to change without costing anything. You can just change thresholds.
Bad optics. They should steer well clear.
Fuck the optics. The £100k cliffedge is a disaster that has serious real-world economic and productivity impacts.
The fact that everything in politics is about "optics" is one of our biggest problems.
Real leaders lead.
This was a party political broadcast by the Liz Truss Party.
Liz problem wasn't unpopular / optics....it was there was no real plan, it was just fantasy economics, which the markets wouldn't back.
Surely it was both bad economics and bad politics. With public services widely seen to be on their knees tax cuts for the super rich were a mad political move.
What might appear bad politics in the short term doesn't have to be in the long term e.g. Osborne was mega unpopular and the Tories were behind in the polls for significant portion of 2010-2015.
In terms of Truss, not only did nothing add up, lets say for arguments sake, that her general diagnosis was correct i.e. we need to get more productivity, lower taxes, to get growth, which overall would provide larger income for government to spend on public services. Making those changes at the time she did, there wasn't long enough for those things to flow through before the GE anyway. That is why I said you have to do big things in year 1 of a new government.
Comments
Lab 44 (-2)
Con 22 (+1)
Ref 14 (+2)
Figures from The Times lead story. Figures for other parties not quoted in the article.
The Greens/Lib Dems are not so much of a threat to Labour as their potential voters are younger and less likely to turnout.
Weak, indecisive? Weak and divisive?
It was eventually ruled wrong under a very obscure Scottish case from over a hundred years ago that very few people knew about. Including most Scottish judges.
Hale seriously over-egged the pudding in her declarations on the subject that it was ‘in effect a blank piece of paper’ which was rather typical of her bombastic behaviour for all her knowledge of English family law had few peers.
I’ll criticise Cummings any day of the week but to suggest he or anyone else involved including the Queen thought they were acting illegally (rather than just stupidly) is not correct.
As far as I can tell, he hasn't made any colossal mistakes today.
Yet.
They really are having a disaster. One i saw was that it advised you to drink your own piss to help pass kidney stones.
I am sure one day we will find out the reasons why he pulled the emergency exit latch.
I considered the prorogation a bad and wrong decision irrespective of whether it was lawful, but I don't have a reason to assume bad faith on the part of those involved inasmuch as whether they intended unlawfullness.
Nearly all people won't have followed every detail of the case and nearly all won't have followed the details of the arguments against the outcome either. It is little different to most cases in that respect.
Wrong verdicts happen, everyone knows that, but by and large people trust the system and assume if there are legal or factual flaws these will come out through appeal.
A tragedy if that ultimately reveals fundamental flaws with the conviction, but I fail to see what's bizarre or 'revealing' that people trust the outcome of a trial and will leave it to appeals and campaigners to prove otherwise legally before they instantly decide reasonable doubt must exist.
I hope the press get bored with trying to turn everything Rishi does into some new gaffe.
Actually it is interesting compared to Sunak leadership bid, they had the flashy video ready and a load of other stuff. Now him being crap at debates and the Tory party members wanted uncosted Trussonomics is another matter. But at the time, people said if anything Sunak for PM was too slick.
Sunaks biggest flaw is his inability to listen to other people when they are trying to help him.
Sucks for him and history may judge it a bit harsh, but them's the breaks. It's his job to overcome this sort of thing.
Mr. B, yeah, the practice results were fairly interesting. At the moment, Leclerc for pole/the win is something I've got in mind but the odds are trash, just over evens either way (and I need to check the weather). An untimely crash could scupper something like that.
That is, more than those who already believe anything they read online.
They actually have a serious model with their LLMs. The reason for all the weird image generation was they appended every query with very strong guardrails. Some said it was google being "woke", now i think there was probably a bit of that, but i also think they know their models aren't that well trained and so can't trust them not to do crazy things without the word salad appended to every query to really guide it.
But a nurse or other health care worker using their position of trust in order to harm is not that unusual. There was a similar case in Grantham with Beverley Allit some years ago. Indeed we had a near miss in my own Trust a few years back. There were a number of incidents where aneasthetic equipment in our emergency operating theatres malfunctioned, including blocked piping etc. Fortunately no one came to harm, but it was a covert camera that discovered what was happening. A member of staff was filmed sabotaging an anaesthetic machine. Further investigation found that they were present at the previous incidents. The motivation was that this person would appear at the moment of equipment failure, and sort it out by undoing their sabotage, thriving on being the hero on the day.
Journalism would be much better served if the individuals involved weren’t trying to simultaneously run commentary on the match and score the winning goals.
It's early days, so the Tories can recover their mojo, but currently Labour's campaign is the one looking well planned and on message.
I wonder if they've quietly made changes in methodology after the mayoral elections, or if the panel is just volatile.
ii) You can't join the Army after 43, or be in a front line unit after I think 50 or so, so should we strip 51-year-olds of the vote too?
I'm sure there are plenty of people with a hero complex in medicine, the army etc but don't go as far as causing the issue in the first place.
He reminds me of that England rugby captain who was awful.
Who was it? Chris Robshaw?
Betting PostF1: Monaco is my least favourite circuit. Anyway, backed Sainz at 23 each way to win. His recent qualifying record is highly similar to Leclerc's they're (for now) in the same car, and I'm anticipating him improving from practice. We shall see.
Edited extra bit: more waffle herein: https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2024/05/monaco-pre-qualifying-2024.html
There's a lot of malicious gossip that flies around in politics.
It ended because it became repugnant to too many people, and we were no longer tolerant of the ethics of what was required to keep it in place.
The only real optics mistake I think he's made so far is announcing the election in a downpour.
He needs to team-talk and lift up his whole MP and candidate base. Get them to believe.
One senses he hasn't really bothered.
The interesting thing is that votes at 16 was often a topic raised with, or by, the pupils, and there was always a substantial number - occasionally even a majority - who felt they weren’t yet ready for the weighty responsibility of deciding who governs us. We councillors would race to be the first to share how lightly that responsibility sat on so many of their parents.
Since Brexit, my guess is that more of them will be up for it.
This is a government that has run out of ideas, cursed by the long term damage caused by short term policies.
Considering that we had to have an election within months the lack of preparedness is astonishing.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCsufaClk5if2RGqABb-09Uw
“Inheritance tax is a 40 per cent tax on the value of an estate - including property, money and possessions - of someone who has died. Tax is usually paid if the estate is valued at less than £325,000.
As someone who is sixty soon, I recognise that I am past my peak mentally. To compensate there is the benefit of experience, so still functioning well, but aware of my limitations.
It's just the sort of thing that Tory governments are meant to sort out.
There's so much shithouse gesture politics these days, devoid of substance or logic, and that applies to all the political parties who chase soundbites, memes, and the chance to piss over each other rather than sensible long-term decisions.
But again its symptom of politicians won't take difficult decisions that might have losers / be unpopular in the short term.
Yes, not long term thinking, I know, but that's nothing new
Channel 4 To Air Episodes Of Hit Podcast ‘The Rest Is Politics' In General Election Run-Up
https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/news/channel-4-to-air-episodes-of-hit-podcast-the-rest-is-politics-in-general-election-run-up/ar-BB1mYNi3
Such a confusing message.
Nadine Dorries is appalled (on X)
"Rishi is taking Saturday off.
Boris Johnson worked every hour that god gave him during election campaign. Every single hour.
The idea of a day at home - even a couple of hours at home other than sleeping was out of the question. And this is only day 3!"
(Off topic how do you post photos etc on here?)
Using YouGov numbers from their megapoll, Westminster constituency data from the England and Wales census, and assuming no variation by constituency and that the age distribution of an electorate accounts for 100%* of the vote share, you can put together a rudimentary projection for the election.
This finds that Labour would win every single seat in England and Wales. This is even the case after adjusting for differential turnout, with younger people less likely to vote. The closest the Conservatives would come is in Isle of Wight East, but Labour would still have a 7,000 vote majority. The biggest Labour win would be in Poplar and Limehouse, at 26,000.
This is obviously nonsense, with Labour winning much larger majorities in 2019 (eg Knowsley at 40,000). But it does show the basic demographics are a major weakness for the Conservatives, with other factors like housing tenure and perhaps even the culture war what will bag them their constituencies. It suggests that these other factors differentiate constituencies rather than bring them closer together.
I also looked at the left/right wing split, adding Reform to the Tory vote and Green to the Labour vote. Labour still wins every seat, but it’s much closer. For example, Christchurch has a left wing lead of only 1,700 in this age-based projection. Older people voting for Reform is disaster for the Conservatives, while younger people voting Green is only an inconvenience for Labour.
I’ll post some more fatuous analysis based on employment status and housing tenure over the next couple of days.
*I’ve previously worked out that age distribution accounts for only around 40% of Tory vote share in Westminster constituencies.
The fact that everything in politics is about "optics" is one of our biggest problems.
Real leaders lead.
I agree, but - the media nonetheless set a tone for how the parties and their leaders are perceived.
It filters down.
The announcement in the rain was incredibly unwise. Millions will have caught up with that, but it wasn't the end of the World. But yesterday's Titanic visit, who the hell dreamed that one up?
Fortunately for Sunak the BBC in particular are embargoing Sunak gaffes, so no one has heard about the Titanic, the Euros error or the two boiler suited ringers.
Even Nick Palmer ex-MP - who is pretty left-wing, let's remember - agrees this is an issue and regrets his part in bringing it in. Which was also about "optics".
Truss didn't propose to remove the 100k tax trap. It's one of the biggest marks against her 6 weeks in office, because she was also going for "optics" but of a different kind.
Today's front pages:
Daily Express "Now Gove Quits! Ministers shock exit rocks Tories"
Daily Mail: "Reeves: I'll never play fast and loose with your money"
Cummings is stupid, arrogant, bombastic, stuck up, incompetent and lazy but even he isn't so dumb as to deliberately commit a crime of that magnitude. He might well have not cared about Covid because he thought he could get away with it, but on this one the royal prerogative of prorogation was ancient, well-established and had never been challenged before.
They did absolutely renege on their manifesto commitments though, which promised abolition in black and white.
On the "well-off" point here's one for you: the 2009 budget introduced the 100k cliff edge from April 2010, just before that election. That's 100k in 2010 pounds.
Do you know what that's worth today, inflation-adjusted for 2024?
£65,000.
In terms of Truss, not only did nothing add up, lets say for arguments sake, that her general diagnosis was correct i.e. we need to get more productivity, lower taxes, to get growth, which overall would provide larger income for government to spend on public services. Making those changes at the time she did, there wasn't long enough for those things to flow through before the GE anyway. That is why I said you have to do big things in year 1 of a new government.