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Something to ponder before betting on this election – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,240

    Minorities are most useful to those who 'tirelessly campaign' for them when they are downtrodden, the campaign isn't really about untreading.
    It's some sort of sick white saviour complex certain types have
    It really is, and it is one total naked display here, tonight
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,027

    Minorities are most useful to those who 'tirelessly campaign' for them when they are downtrodden, the campaign isn't really about untreading.
    It's some sort of sick white saviour complex certain types have
    “Don’t worry brown man, we will fight for you”

    “Thanks but I’m really clever so I’m going to work hard and succeed”

    “ you can’t, society is against you”

    “Honestly, I’m ok, I’m doing really well”

    “Only we can make sure you have a country you can succeed in”

    “I’m already more successful than you”

    “ you fucking turncoat traitor, how dare you not conform to our requirements of you and see things differently to us”.

    “That’s why I’m off to to California with my billionaire wife - enjoy your self defeating battle”.

  • eekeek Posts: 29,443
    megasaur said:

    Brilliant

    And as with previous versions it's outstanding that it ends just VOTE. Not VOTE X, just VOTE
    If you vote you may not like the result but at least your say was counted. It's those who don't vote who complain who I really can't stand...

    It's not like you live in some dodgy US state where the polling booths have been reduced to ensure you can only vote if you take the day off, and arrive before polling opens to join a 5 mile long queue...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,238
    edited May 2024
    boulay said:

    “Don’t worry brown man, we will fight for you”

    “Thanks but I’m really clever so I’m going to work hard and succeed”

    “ you can’t, society is against you”

    “Honestly, I’m ok, I’m doing really well”

    “Only we can make sure you have a country you can succeed in”

    “I’m already more successful than you”

    “ you fucking turncoat traitor, how dare you not conform to our requirements of you and see things differently to us”.

    “That’s why I’m off to to California with my billionaire wife - enjoy your self defeating battle”.

    Remember all the responses to this?

    (I don't think I've posted an image today, but if I have, I beg an indulgence as we are close to midnight, with a penalty of no image permitted tomorrow).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,690
    boulay said:

    “Don’t worry brown man, we will fight for you”

    “Thanks but I’m really clever so I’m going to work hard and succeed”

    “ you can’t, society is against you”

    “Honestly, I’m ok, I’m doing really well”

    “Only we can make sure you have a country you can succeed in”

    “I’m already more successful than you”

    “ you fucking turncoat traitor, how dare you not conform to our requirements of you and see things differently to us”.

    “That’s why I’m off to to California with my billionaire wife - enjoy your self defeating battle”.

    You live in a really weird world inside your own head.

    Who here has ever said anything along those lines?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    edited May 2024
    This is one of those election campaigns that mirrors one of those pub football games where one side is so much better than the other that ,to make a game of it. they start to lend a few of their players to the other side- just to keep it interesting - Here have Jezza Corbyn and Galloway .Tell you what we will muck up selection in Leicester East for you to have a chance there- Even Reform are doing it by not running Farage
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,457

    She's yesterday's news. It is Whitby Woman apparently this time.

    Sounds fishy to me.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,148
    Glastonbury: 26-30 June. It's not going to help the Tory cause, just sayin'.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,240
    DM_Andy said:

    If it was on naked display then you would be able to produce one quote to back your delusion up.
    Every comment you have made tonight. Start there
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,240
    Foxy said:

    You live in a really weird world inside your own head.

    Who here has ever said anything along those lines?
    YOU
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,966
    eek said:

    Was chatting to my parents who have about £x00,000 cash appearing next week after they downsize. Thinking through the steps I actually got to the point where I was suggesting that you may want to start gifting it before rather than after July....

    The Government finances are beyond dire and I can see a "state of the nation" speech in late July / early September revealing some very painful home truths while blaming Bozo/Truss/Rishi for a massive mess..

    And no Labour Government is going to reduce Inheritance tax...
    Bare in mind the possible (hopefully not) need for £ for social care.



  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    Glastonbury: 26-30 June. It's not going to help the Tory cause, just sayin'.

    All that Oh Sir Keir Starmer chanting?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,342

    Minorities are most useful to those who 'tirelessly campaign' for them when they are downtrodden, the campaign isn't really about untreading.
    It's some sort of sick white saviour complex certain types have
    I see Leon's already on the sauce this evening...
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Leon said:

    Every comment you have made tonight. Start there
    I haven't said anything about Sunak's ethnicity.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,358
    Labour is looking to introduce votes for 16 and 17-year-olds in its first year in government if it wins the election.

    The party is closely studying how Scotland and Wales lowered the voting age and believes there is no reason why lowering the national voting age for general elections would need to take longer.

    Sir Keir Starmer pledged to extend the franchise to younger voters in September with no indication of how quickly the policy would be implemented should it win the election. Party sources now say that while there is yet no commitment that the policy will be in the King’s Speech, it is nonetheless expected to be enacted quickly. “I would be extremely surprised if it wasn’t in the King’s Speech,” one said, describing the legislation needed as “extremely straightforward”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-vote-general-election-16-year-olds-mrdwhthsv
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    I see Leon's already on the sauce this evening...
    Worcestershire, presumably.

    (Had some the other evening, btw, on my monkfish alla tomatoes and olives and capers with rice.)
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,960
     
    megasaur said:

    All that Oh Sir Keir Starmer chanting?
    Jon Snow (who he?) jigging to "Fuck the Tories".
    Doubt if that does them any harm …

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,438
    My parents comment on the news their Tory MP was the latest to step down 'is this rats deserting a sinking ship, unfair to their constituents and those who have campaigned for them in the past though at least should get rid of the career politicians.'
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,240
    kle4 said:

    Remember all the responses to this?

    (I don't think I've posted an image today, but if I have, I beg an indulgence as we are close to midnight, with a penalty of no image permitted tomorrow).
    That is quite an extroardinary and telling image, and says it all, and describes the condescending racism of @Farooq and @Foxy and @DM_Andy completely. They are racists, of the worst kind, because it comes dressed in fake kindness

    And with that, night night
  • PJHPJH Posts: 775
    boulay said:

    Absolutely - that’s not the fault of the public schools though, it’s the fault of successive governments and an obsession with quick money over long term investment in people and business that infects the country.

    I want every child to have the education I had. I loved it. I would contemplate going back tomorrow if it didn’t look a bit dodgy a man in his forties going to a boys boarding school. I want every kid in the uk to eat like a pig three times a day, have to play spots seven hours a week and cultural exercise a minimum of five hours a week and the facilities to do that. I want parents to also hand over their kids to the school for many more hours and the state to support that because we will have a better country, the best investment we could make.

    That should be the first thing alongside defence the state should pay for. Then work out what health spending is vital, the what’s good then what’s “nice”.

    Build the foundations well, healthy educated interested happy children will create a better country. Maybe give them all black shirts or something so they all feel part of a whole.
    I've always felt the same. State schools should match Public Schools. It's easy - take the average fees that a Conservative Cabinet are prepared to pay for their own children, and that is what each state school should get per child. My children aren't worth less than (say) Jacob Rees-Mogg's, surely? if it's worth it for them, it's worth it for mine, and defintely worth it for children from less advantaged backgrounds than mine or JRM's. No Tory could argue with that, surely?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,966
    V odd front page from Mail.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,411

    Labour is looking to introduce votes for 16 and 17-year-olds in its first year in government if it wins the election.

    The party is closely studying how Scotland and Wales lowered the voting age and believes there is no reason why lowering the national voting age for general elections would need to take longer.

    Sir Keir Starmer pledged to extend the franchise to younger voters in September with no indication of how quickly the policy would be implemented should it win the election. Party sources now say that while there is yet no commitment that the policy will be in the King’s Speech, it is nonetheless expected to be enacted quickly. “I would be extremely surprised if it wasn’t in the King’s Speech,” one said, describing the legislation needed as “extremely straightforward”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-vote-general-election-16-year-olds-mrdwhthsv

    I am against this. I am not convinced that 16 year olds are mature enough for the vote. They will have a lifetime of voting after they turn 18.

    People love to slam the Tories for allegedly using voter ID to suppress votes against them. Will they slam this as a naked attempt to garner more youth votes for Labour? One man’s gerrymandering is another’s increasing the democratic franchise…
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    This is one of those election campaigns that mirrors one of those pub football games where one side is so much better than the other that ,to make a game of it. they start to lend a few of their players to the other side- just to keep it interesting - Here have Jezza Corbyn and Galloway .Tell you what we will muck up selection in Leicester East for you to have a chance there- Even Reform are doing it by not running Farage

    And yet.... and yet. The vast majority of people who will vote on July 4 couldn't give a tinkers cuss about Gove stepping down or Rishi standing near a sign saying 'exit' or the rain, or Starmer having a stinker of an interview this morning or Newsnight being bad for Holden. They're waiting to see manifestos and enjoy an egging if one transpires. The whole narrative of 'disaster campaign' has been invented in 48 hours and exists in the heads of political obsessives like us.
    There are people on social media tonight convinced a funny photo and asking Welsh dudes about footy means Canada 93 is nailed on. I'm guessing it's their first rodeo.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,027
    Foxy said:

    You live in a really weird world inside your own head.

    Who here has ever said anything along those lines?
    Do you honestly not recognise a strand in society that gets miffed that people who they think, by virtue of their skin colour or religion, should automatically vote with them? Now you are clearly bright but if you don’t accept that’s a real situation then you are naïve.

    Voting blocks are a thing. Coconuts are an abusive term for real and it’s the fact that certain sections cannot understand that the colour of your skin doesn’t determine how you are politically.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Labour is looking to introduce votes for 16 and 17-year-olds in its first year in government if it wins the election.

    The party is closely studying how Scotland and Wales lowered the voting age and believes there is no reason why lowering the national voting age for general elections would need to take longer.

    Sir Keir Starmer pledged to extend the franchise to younger voters in September with no indication of how quickly the policy would be implemented should it win the election. Party sources now say that while there is yet no commitment that the policy will be in the King’s Speech, it is nonetheless expected to be enacted quickly. “I would be extremely surprised if it wasn’t in the King’s Speech,” one said, describing the legislation needed as “extremely straightforward”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-vote-general-election-16-year-olds-mrdwhthsv

    One wonders why it took so long. Even the Scottish Tories voted for it in Scotland almost a decade ago.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-33173488
  • eekeek Posts: 29,443
    Foxy said:

    The only reason to stand in this GE is to get a better seat next time. Like May and Farron standing for their parties in Newcastle in the Eighties.
    Tim Farron was the Student President of Kings College Durham (i.e. Newcastle) at the time he stood in Durham North.

    From memory a fair number of none Lib Dems helped he out there as he was rather liked...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,997
    edited May 2024

    I am against this. I am not convinced that 16 year olds are mature enough for the vote. They will have a lifetime of voting after they turn 18.

    People love to slam the Tories for allegedly using voter ID to suppress votes against them. Will they slam this as a naked attempt to garner more youth votes for Labour? One man’s gerrymandering is another’s increasing the democratic franchise…
    It's interesting that they're talking about this and not actual voting reform though.

    Albeit given what their criminal, oops, Welsh wing came up with on that subject that's probably a good thing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,238
    edited May 2024

    Labour is looking to introduce votes for 16 and 17-year-olds in its first year in government if it wins the election.

    The party is closely studying how Scotland and Wales lowered the voting age and believes there is no reason why lowering the national voting age for general elections would need to take longer.

    Sir Keir Starmer pledged to extend the franchise to younger voters in September with no indication of how quickly the policy would be implemented should it win the election. Party sources now say that while there is yet no commitment that the policy will be in the King’s Speech, it is nonetheless expected to be enacted quickly. “I would be extremely surprised if it wasn’t in the King’s Speech,” one said, describing the legislation needed as “extremely straightforward”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-vote-general-election-16-year-olds-mrdwhthsv

    Not a fan of that idea personally, I accept things don't need to be 100% consistent but I believe it goes against the trend of treating 16 year olds more like children than adults, but I think that it has happened there meant it was pretty inevitable to happen overall, and it's a simple change to enact versus wasting political capital for grander reform of the Lords or whatever (even my own simplistic proposals to quickly improve it).
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,581


    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    2m
    Saturday’s Daily TELEGRAPH: “Inheritance tax against Tory values, says Hunt” #TomorrowsPapersToday

    Their values including not having to pay tax.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,148
    megasaur said:

    All that Oh Sir Keir Starmer chanting?
    Maybe not that but: expect a lot of political messaging from performers, and not much of it positive for Sunak and co.

    Also raising awareness of voter ID. It'll be too late for voters to register though.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,342

    I am against this. I am not convinced that 16 year olds are mature enough for the vote.
    Nearly every day, my Mum accuses me of being a 48-year old man-child!

  • eekeek Posts: 29,443

    I am against this. I am not convinced that 16 year olds are mature enough for the vote. They will have a lifetime of voting after they turn 18.

    People love to slam the Tories for allegedly using voter ID to suppress votes against them. Will they slam this as a naked attempt to garner more youth votes for Labour? One man’s gerrymandering is another’s increasing the democratic franchise…
    Likewise, I think you need to be a tax payer before you should be allowed to vote and nowadays you have to be in full time education until you are 18...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,358

    I am against this. I am not convinced that 16 year olds are mature enough for the vote. They will have a lifetime of voting after they turn 18.

    People love to slam the Tories for allegedly using voter ID to suppress votes against them. Will they slam this as a naked attempt to garner more youth votes for Labour? One man’s gerrymandering is another’s increasing the democratic franchise…
    I was against it then went to Scotland in 2014 and some of the best arguments/campaigners on both sides were sixteen and seventeen year olds.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,581

    There are two diametrically opposite reasons to make someone Head Boy. (1) He's a natural leader of men, a sportsman of renown, an intellectual paragon beyond his years or (2) He's a bit of a nurd but he might get into Oxford if we boosted his self-esteem; wouldn't try higher than Lincoln, though.
    Rishi Sunak is no David Watts.

    Full disclosure: I was Head Boy, and neither am I.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    I see Leon's already on the sauce this evening...
    There's nothing "already" about 2220 on a Friday evening

    I find this whole conversation bizarre though. The views that brown immigrants are bad, and Wykehamists are good, are two cheeks of the one a*se. It's like saying this guy was the son of slaves, but they gave him such a good education that now he can afford to own slaves himself. huzzah!
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Leon said:

    That is quite an extroardinary and telling image, and says it all, and describes the condescending racism of @Farooq and @Foxy and @DM_Andy completely. They are racists, of the worst kind, because it comes dressed in fake kindness

    And with that, night night
    That's libelous. Good night Leon and I hope you have a clearer head in the morning.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,443

    Their values including not having to pay tax.
    Not paying tax because it is no longer a tax is a big improvement on playing games to avoid paying it (and I do note that earlier in this thread I was suggesting moving money early to avoid paying such tax).
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    kjh said:

    See my post from the other day.
    Where? You can’t expect us to trawl through hundreds, possibly thousands, of posts?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    It’s just basic stuff


  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    I was against it then went to Scotland in 2014 and some of the best arguments/campaigners on both sides were sixteen and seventeen year olds.
    Annabel Goldie in the Scots Pmt back in 2015 passing the Scots legislation unanimously (same linky as I posted just now):

    'Conservative MSP Annabel Goldie told MSPs that the bill was an important moment for young people and democracy.

    "This bill heralds an exciting era for our young people," she said.

    "I think it is an opportunity for them to continue their high level of engagement in topical affairs that we saw with the independence referendum."'
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,899
    edited May 2024
    I just went thru my personal characteristics to see if I could legitimately put myself forward as a Conservative candidate. Despite some sincere leanings towards the centre-right, particularly regards crime, the military and defence, I rapidly concluded that they would not accept me. Which may be a bit of a pity.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited May 2024
    Sean_F said:

    I generally think there would not be the same sense of mission to expand West, on the part of colonial authorities, nor the same level of immigration.
    Perhaps not same sense of mission, but something similar.

    Note that after 1815, expansion of settlement into Upper Canada > Ontario was quite rapid, including significant number of overseas immigrants.

    Further expansion of settlement and immigration from Ontario most went toward destinations further west, but into the US, not Rupert's Land > Northwest Territory, which remained a massive fir-trapping preserve as long as transportation links were limited to birchbark & similar, and there was land & opportunity available south of the border.

    AND when railroads made the Canadian Northwest more accessible, first via US feeder lines then over the Canadian Pacific, there was another rapid expansion of settlement AND also mass immigration, both strongly encouraged by the express policy of federal governments of Canada both Grit (Liberal) and Tory.

    Addendum - Forgot to say that, in both USA and Canada, process of settlement expansion and immigration was largely driven from the bottom up.

    The top-down policy and activity of governments on both sides of the border being primarily a reflection of demands from the economy, demography and society of each emerging nation.

    Manitoba being one example with respect to British North America > Canada.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,027
    megasaur said:

    There's nothing "already" about 2220 on a Friday evening

    I find this whole conversation bizarre though. The views that brown immigrants are bad, and Wykehamists are good, are two cheeks of the one a*se. It's like saying this guy was the son of slaves, but they gave him such a good education that now he can afford to own slaves himself. huzzah!
    Failing to see the problem with this. Rishi treats his slaves very well.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,438
    edited May 2024
    Foxy said:

    I don't dislike Sunak. He is just way out of his depth as PM and got promoted far too soon in almost everything in his life.

    He has never had to learn from failure. Not until now anyway. It will be pretty devastating for him personally.
    Yes, Rishi has had a very successful life so far but to win national elections you also have to have had some hard knocks and empathise, that is how the likes of Harry Truman and John Major won against the odds despite having had educations and careers no where near as stellar as his.

    Indeed often the highest flyers in their careers who end up party leaders end up either losing elections or being none too successful in the top job, eg Mitt Romney, Hillary Clinton, Hague, Stoiber in Germany, Gordon Brown, Eden, Rishi, Ignatieff in Canada, Turnbull in Australia etc.

    The greatest PMs and Presidents though eg Churchill, Attlee, Thatcher, Blair, Kohl, John Howard and Bob Hawke, Reagan, FDR, Clinton were often not top tier in their previous careers or intellect but knew what needed to be done and could connect with their voters
  • eekeek Posts: 29,443
    Heathener said:

    It’s just basic stuff


    Didn't we point out earlier that Rishi's media staff hate him and his other staff aren't clever enough to stop the pitfalls being created..
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953

    I was against it then went to Scotland in 2014 and some of the best arguments/campaigners on both sides were sixteen and seventeen year olds.
    I'd raise it to 21 tbh. I was an idiot who knew nothing of how the world worked fresh out of school. It took a couple of years of being in the real world before I got a handle on how things worked. And a decade or so more after that...

    16 year olds are children. 18 year olds are barely better, but given we allow them the right to drink, drive, get shot at for their country, leave home and tell their parents to do one at around this time, it seems to be the consensus age of majority.

    Can any of us say we felt grown up at sixteen? Really?

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,270

    I am against this. I am not convinced that 16 year olds are mature enough for the vote. They will have a lifetime of voting after they turn 18.

    People love to slam the Tories for allegedly using voter ID to suppress votes against them. Will they slam this as a naked attempt to garner more youth votes for Labour? One man’s gerrymandering is another’s increasing the democratic franchise…
    I’m in my 50s. I’m not certain people in their 30s are mature enough to vote…
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    TimS said:

    You’ll be voting Tory then. Well done Rishi.
    No, the likely second place in Exmouth and Exeter East is Labour not the LibDems.

    Go check Electoral Calculus with all the ward breakdowns if you don’t believe this.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,270

    And yet.... and yet. The vast majority of people who will vote on July 4 couldn't give a tinkers cuss about Gove stepping down or Rishi standing near a sign saying 'exit' or the rain, or Starmer having a stinker of an interview this morning or Newsnight being bad for Holden. They're waiting to see manifestos and enjoy an egging if one transpires. The whole narrative of 'disaster campaign' has been invented in 48 hours and exists in the heads of political obsessives like us.
    There are people on social media tonight convinced a funny photo and asking Welsh dudes about footy means Canada 93 is nailed on. I'm guessing it's their first rodeo.
    I was with you until you claimed people are “waiting to see manifestos”! Most people pay no attention to such things.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,690
    Leon said:

    YOU
    No I haven't!

  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,436

    take your point and a bit true in general but I never thought of Boris as lazy ( I know he was insulted as that by opponents) - He has certainly done a lot in life (including writing books) , a lot more than me (and I dont think I am lazy ) .He had a fun style and sometimes dismissive and eccentric but not a lazy one
    Here's an anecdote from a relative of mine who worked on a student rag at Oxford with him. She said it was impossible to get him to turn up to meetings or do any work or whatever, but of course he was happy to have his name on each edition.

    Boris was hard-working about things that motivated him, like Ukraine, showing off on TV or writing. He was just bored by the routine business of government, much of which is tedious and a very hard grind. So for that reason he was much better at winning power than governing.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    boulay said:

    Failing to see the problem with this. Rishi treats his slaves very well.
    Every day feels like a half rem for them
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,270
    eek said:

    Likewise, I think you need to be a tax payer before you should be allowed to vote and nowadays you have to be in full time education until you are 18...
    You’re still paying VAT.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,690
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, Rishi has had a very successful life so far but to win national elections you also have to have had some hard knocks and empathise, that is how the likes of Harry Truman and John Major won against the odds despite having had educations and careers no where near as stellar as his.

    Indeed often the highest flyers in their careers who end up party leaders end up either losing elections or being none too successful in the top job, eg Mitt Romney, Hillary Clinton, Hague, Stoiber in Germany, Gordon Brown, Eden, Rishi, Ignatieff in Canada, Turnbull in Australia etc.

    The greatest PMs and Presidents though eg Churchill, Attlee, Thatcher, Blair, Kohl, John Howard and Bob Hawke, Reagan, FDR, Clinton were often not top tier in their previous careers or intellect but knew what needed to be done and could connect with their voters
    It's rare that I agree with you, but spot on. Failure is an essential learning experience.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,857

    I am not sure it is the opposite in sport - it depends more on personality than effort - For instance who was more liked Geoffrey Boycott or David Gower ? Seb Coe put in huge effort to get his medals but never really liked . Steve Davis was just hated in the 1980s and everyone liked Alex Higgins or Jimmy White
    But Gower, Lineker, Gazza, derided as "careless, lazy, waster".
    Boycott wasn't liked. But he was hugely admired. Compare attitudes to Lineker to say, Terry Butcher or Stuart Pearce.
  • DeclanFDeclanF Posts: 42
    edited May 2024
    @Leon (fpt)

    "This troubles me

    A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant

    He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt

    I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing
    "

    Why would a forensic psychiatrist be able to assess evidence about how premature babies died?

    The evidence against Letby was not based on her psychiatric state but on the non-natural causes of the deaths and that Letby was the only nurse who was present at the relevant times.


  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,411

    You’re still paying VAT.
    So why stop at 16? Anyone who pays VAT gets the vote?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,270
    viewcode said:

    I just went thru my personal characteristics to see if I could legitimately put myself forward as a Conservative candidate. Despite some sincere leanings towards the centre-right, particularly regards crime, the military and defence, I rapidly concluded that they would not accept me. Which may be a bit of a pity.

    I’d’ve thought they had a rule that you have to have been a member of the party for at least a certain period of time.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,966
    eek said:

    Didn't we point out earlier that Rishi's media staff hate him and his other staff aren't clever enough to stop the pitfalls being created..
    Can we get onto actual policy please?

    What is Sunak planning to do in his second term?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    I was with you until you claimed people are “waiting to see manifestos”! Most people pay no attention to such things.
    Fair.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,411
    edited May 2024
    ToryJim said:



    If they are also going to lower the age at which you can buy alcohol and leave school etc then fine. I’m not convinced you can declare that someone is old enough to discern and determine who can make laws and govern the country but can’t in their own lives discern and determine what legal chemicals to place in their bodies. I also presume that given the candidate age is aligned with the voting age that will drop to 16 too, which will allow for the possibility of some kid who’s barely started shaving getting elected to Parliament then having to absent themselves for the first 2 years whilst they finish compulsory education. Bonkers.
    Not bonkers, gerrymandering, just like the voter ID plot.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,443

    You’re still paying VAT.
    On that basis a 3 year old should be allowed to vote the first time they buy some (Vatible) sweets.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,690

    Perhaps not same sense of mission, but something similar.

    Note that after 1815, expansion of settlement into Upper Canada > Ontario was quite rapid, including significant number of overseas immigrants.

    Further expansion of settlement and immigration from Ontario most went toward destinations further west, but into the US, not Rupert's Land > Northwest Territory, which remained a massive fir-trapping preserve as long as transportation links were limited to birchbark & similar, and there was land & opportunity available south of the border.

    AND when railroads made the Canadian Northwest more accessible, first via US feeder lines then over the Canadian Pacific, there was another rapid expansion of settlement AND also mass immigration, both strongly encouraged by the express policy of federal governments of Canada both Grit (Liberal) and Tory.

    Addendum - Forgot to say that, in both USA and Canada, process of settlement expansion and immigration was largely driven from the bottom up.

    The top-down policy and activity of governments on both sides of the border being primarily a reflection of demands from the economy, demography and society of each emerging nation.

    Manitoba being one example with respect to British North America > Canada.
    I would very much doubt that the French would have sold the Louisiana territory to us in 1802 either.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,628

    I’m in my 50s. I’m not certain people in their 30s are mature enough to vote…
    I am in my 50's I am not convinced anyone but me is mature enough to vote
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    JACK_W said:

    I think it's one of E M Forster's weakest novels although the gay gamekeepers vote remains difficult to read .... much like TSE's thesis on "Great Pineapple And Lettuce Pizza Of The Liz Truss Era.

    Next ....
    Jack!

    Am obliged to you, was previously unaware (or clueless if you prefer) about this E M Forster novel. And of course appreciate your keen political insight re: the gay gamekeeper vote.

    Where do you think this key electoral cohort is thickest (perhaps in more ways than one) on the ground?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,443
    Fishing said:

    Here's an anecdote from a relative of mine who worked on a student rag at Oxford with him. She said it was impossible to get him to turn up to meetings or do any work or whatever, but of course he was happy to have his name on each edition.

    Boris was hard-working about things that motivated him, like Ukraine, showing off on TV or writing. He was just bored by the routine business of government, much of which is tedious and a very hard grind. So for that reason he was much better at winning power than governing.
    or London mayor where the structure allowed him to be a figurehead delegating most decisions...
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,027
    megasaur said:

    Every day feels like a half rem for them
    He’s currently got six weeks of morning hills ahead of him - I wish him well but a disappointment. Alex Chalk would have been a better accidental promotion.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,791
    kle4 said:

    I'm bullish about their chances, might give that a go.
    That looks like a rick. Hills are obviously taking a view that the SNP cannot campaign without their election campervan but they start off from rough equivalence based on the polls.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,690

    Can we get onto actual policy please?

    What is Sunak planning to do in his second term?
    He has promised to do the things that he failed to deliver in his first term.

    That's why he lacks credibility.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,373
    edited May 2024
    Heathener said:

    Where? You can’t expect us to trawl through hundreds, possibly thousands, of posts?
    I answered, when you asked earlier. You don't have to trawl through thousands or even hundreds of posts. I don't post that often so you just have to go to my profile and you will see it on the first page of my posts, about 20 down.

    I don't know how to link to it and it is very easy to find.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,360
    How can Richi avoid another total fucking disaster on the campaign trail tomorrow?

    @kiranstacey

    BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,411
    DeclanF said:

    @Leon (fpt)

    "This troubles me

    A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant

    He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt

    I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing
    "

    Why would a forensic psychiatrist be able to assess evidence about how premature babies died?

    The evidence against Letby was not based on her psychiatric state but on the non-natural causes of the deaths and that Letby was the only nurse who was present at the relevant times.


    Although as discussed and linked to earlier, there seems to be rather obvious statistical flaws in the evidence used against her. For instance there were other deaths in the unit when she wasn’t there, but these were not included in the critical data chart.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,076
    viewcode said:

    I just went thru my personal characteristics to see if I could legitimately put myself forward as a Conservative candidate. Despite some sincere leanings towards the centre-right, particularly regards crime, the military and defence, I rapidly concluded that they would not accept me. Which may be a bit of a pity.

    Which personal characteristics ruled you out?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,411

    Can we get onto actual policy please?

    What is Sunak planning to do in his second term?
    I imagine teach some economics to Uni students at Harvard, or some such.

    You did mean that kind of term? No?
  • DeclanF said:

    @Leon (fpt)

    "This troubles me

    A good friend of mine is a very senior forensic psychiatrist employed by the Home Office/cops from time to time. As a consultant. He’s known to be brilliant

    He’s personally reviewed the Letby case and he’s fairly sure she is innocent - not convinced, but he certainly has reasonable doubt

    I have no dog in this fight. I assumed the conviction was watertight. He told me this over lunch just before Xmas. Disturbing
    "

    Why would a forensic psychiatrist be able to assess evidence about how premature babies died?

    The evidence against Letby was not based on her psychiatric state but on the non-natural causes of the deaths and that Letby was the only nurse who was present at the relevant times.


    I've seen a number of middle aged men unwilling to believe Letby's guilt. They see the image of the pretty blond nurse holding up a babygro and forget that a jury sat through months of evidence to reach their conclusions.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,966

    I imagine teach some economics to Uni students at Harvard, or some such.

    You did mean that kind of term? No?
    He's more Stanford but :lol:
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,270
    ToryJim said:



    If they are also going to lower the age at which you can buy alcohol and leave school etc then fine. I’m not convinced you can declare that someone is old enough to discern and determine who can make laws and govern the country but can’t in their own lives discern and determine what legal chemicals to place in their bodies. I also presume that given the candidate age is aligned with the voting age that will drop to 16 too, which will allow for the possibility of some kid who’s barely started shaving getting elected to Parliament then having to absent themselves for the first 2 years whilst they finish compulsory education. Bonkers.
    If you drink irresponsibly, you could kill yourself or another. If you vote irresponsibly… well, it makes no difference because 60,000 other people are voting in your constituency. Individual votes are very diluted.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    Pagan2 said:

    I am in my 50's I am not convinced anyone but me is mature enough to vote
    I am in my 60s and convinced I am far too young to vote
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,027
    Foxy said:

    He has promised to do the things that he failed to deliver in his first term.

    That's why he lacks credibility.
    Isn’t that really what Blair did? Won a whopping majority, didnt do anything in the first term he should have done so not to risk the next election and vowed to do what he didn’t do in his first term. And yet he’s fondly reminisced about.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,436
    ToryJim said:



    If they are also going to lower the age at which you can buy alcohol and leave school etc then fine. I’m not convinced you can declare that someone is old enough to discern and determine who can make laws and govern the country but can’t in their own lives discern and determine what legal chemicals to place in their bodies. I also presume that given the candidate age is aligned with the voting age that will drop to 16 too, which will allow for the possibility of some kid who’s barely started shaving getting elected to Parliament then having to absent themselves for the first 2 years whilst they finish compulsory education. Bonkers.
    When I remember the poor decisions my friends and I made in our early 20s, I think they should raise the voting age to the level at which the average brain is fully mature, which seems to be in the mid- to late-20s.
  • RedditchRedditch Posts: 31
    Foxy said:

    That is the English Public School cult of amateurism. A cult that has not served the country well.

    Contrast it with the culture of hard work of my Presbyterian ancestors. Anything worth doing should require effort, persistence and strength of character.

    There is more to Britain than English Public Schools, despite their dominance of so many sectors.
    Indeed. One of the baleful effects of the English class system. Of course there is self interest in this the poshos can sail through on connections and dont have to work so hard. Why not hobble the competition. If the uk becomes 2nd rate as a result ah well.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,076
    "As a schoolboy, the young Michael Heseltine mapped out his future. In his 20s, he would become a millionaire. In his 30s, he would become an MP. In his 40s, he would be on the Tory frontbench. By his 50s – between 1983 and 1993 – he would enter Downing Street."

    https://chrishallamworldview.wordpress.com/2014/05/29/michael-heseltine-the-best-tory-prime-minister-we-never-had-2/
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,411

    I've seen a number of middle aged men unwilling to believe Letby's guilt. They see the image of the pretty blond nurse holding up a babygro and forget that a jury sat through months of evidence to reach their conclusions.
    I’ve not doubted her guilt until today when someone posted a link to some very serious flaws in the statistics used against her, something that was not reported at the time, and I suspect was not well contested in court. Never, ever underestimate just how poor the members of the public are at statistics, odds and probability.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,748
    edited May 2024

    I am against this. I am not convinced that 16 year olds are mature enough for the vote. They will have a lifetime of voting after they turn 18.

    People love to slam the Tories for allegedly using voter ID to suppress votes against them. Will they slam this as a naked attempt to garner more youth votes for Labour? One man’s gerrymandering is another’s increasing the democratic franchise…
    'Allegedly'...

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1793038192892928503

    Isn't this always the problem with political wheezes. Its easy to see a thumb on the scale as righting the wrongs of past injustice, until the electorate turns and now you're staring down, votes for 16 year olds, curtailing postal voting and automatic enrolment on the electoral register.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    They'll have war gamed it at the 'snap election' meeting the weekend before he announced
    So yeah. The drama over it is entirely press manufactured. Constituencies will have been told 'is your shortlist ready' etc? And if not then they'll have central list guys and gals imposed.
    It's been reported for weeks/months how many likely to stand down

    Ditto Labours 100 vacancies

    A few omaras might sneak through of course
    Speaking of war-gaming the snap election . . .

    Last weekend I encountered a small gaggle of local GOPers assembled at one corner of a vest-pocket park, led by head of the 36th legislative district Republican Party. A group than can assemble comfortably in a rather small space.

    Yet THEY had the sense to bring along a small tent, the kind that is basically a roof on four polls. So their leader as well as followers avoided getting wet (in any sense).

    Yet the leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party of the United Kingdom, the successor of Pitt, Disraeli, Churchill, Thatcher AND Truss, was less well served by HIS party organization!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,966
    I reckon Hunt will stand down tomorrow evening.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,411

    If you drink irresponsibly, you could kill yourself or another. If you vote irresponsibly… well, it makes no difference because 60,000 other people are voting in your constituency. Individual votes are very diluted.
    That’s a fair point, but I ask again, is this not simply the mirror of what the Tories did with voter ID? There is no burning reason to lower the age of voting, when you won’t do so for alcohol, and you must still attend school.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,148
    edited May 2024


    Did we do the WeThink poll?

    Lab 47(+1)
    Con 22(-1)
    Ref 12(+1)
    LD 8(-)
    Green 6(-2)
    SNP 3(+1)

    Labour lead 25(+2)

    https://wethink-strapi-k5d3.onrender.com/uploads/Voter_Intention_Tracker_240524_c766ac5719.png
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,572

    Can we get onto actual policy please?

    What is Sunak planning to do in his second term?
    Like the Cylons, he has a plan
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,027
    Redditch said:

    Indeed. One of the baleful effects of the English class system. Of course there is self interest in this the poshos can sail through on connections and dont have to work so hard. Why not hobble the competition. If the uk becomes 2nd rate as a result ah well.
    Absolutely, we should stick to those titans of success who didn’t go to public school like May, Truss, Brown. It’s all down to schooling.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,690
    boulay said:

    Isn’t that really what Blair did? Won a whopping majority, didnt do anything in the first term he should have done so not to risk the next election and vowed to do what he didn’t do in his first term. And yet he’s fondly reminisced about.
    No. Blair deliberately lowballed his objectives so that he could over deliver. The pledge card was very unambitious.*

    Sunak has done the opposite. He bigger up his promises then failed to deliver them . Then wants re-election on the basis of those promises.

    * somewhere I have one given to me personally by John Prescott, signed by him.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    I've seen a number of middle aged men unwilling to believe Letby's guilt. They see the image of the pretty blond nurse holding up a babygro and forget that a jury sat through months of evidence to reach their conclusions.
    Juries sat through months of evidence before convicting subpostmasters.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,966

    Tim Montgomerie 🇬🇧
    @montie
    Gove. Wallace. Javid. May. Redwood. Zahawi. Leadsom. Cash. Clark. (I could go on and on…) All stepping down. We are witnessing an absolutely massive changing of the guard. An historic loss of experience and memory - whatever the election result. The Conservative Party won’t be the same again..:. For good or ill

    https://x.com/montie/status/1794104125057060962
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,411
    megasaur said:

    Juries sat through months of evidence before convicting subpostmasters.
    I’ve liked this, but we’re the cases against subbies ever that long?
  • I’ve not doubted her guilt until today when someone posted a link to some very serious flaws in the statistics used against her, something that was not reported at the time, and I suspect was not well contested in court. Never, ever underestimate just how poor the members of the public are at statistics, odds and probability.
    I would be willing to listen to that, but far too much of the discussion around the case so far is thinking the middle class nice looking nurse can't be guilty, because she doesn't look the type.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,572
    1) Peston: Senior Tories believe there will be an avalanche of Tory MPs announcing their retirement this weekend
    2) Sunak quits the campaign and goes home to closet himself away with his closest advisors...

    OK. So who becomes acting leader? Hunt?
This discussion has been closed.