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Something to ponder before betting on this election – politicalbetting.com

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  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    edited May 2024
    Scott_xP said:

    @Peston
    Senior Tories expect a significant number of further MP resignations over the weekend, in the wake of Gove’s and Leadsom’s decisions not to fight the election. Quite a number who have been re-approved as candidates have been in two minds, and thought they had till the autumn to decide. The party has more than 150 seats and rising with no candidate. That is a lot of candidates for CCHQ to find before 7 June and a lot of wasted campaigning days. It does rather indicate Sunak called the election before his party was ready

    Just had a speculative bet on the tories getting under 50 seats at 14/1. There is no fight left or even candidates , Sunak is proving an utter disaster
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,329
    Andy_JS said:

    A lot of bollocks on here tonight about how oppressive the class system is in the UK, when it's far worse in most other countries.

    And the complaining comes from well-heeled people.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,394

    just had a nibble on william Hill for SNP to have most scottish seats at 100/30. Think Swinney is more popular to potential SNP voters than Hamza was

    He is (he says) the most popular politician in Scotland.

    Fill your boots...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242

    The significance is that if constituencies are only now learning their MPs are standing down, they have only two weeks to find successors for their often safe seats (candidates must be in place by 7 June). One imagines CCHQ might impose candidates but that can easily backfire as well.
    I must say I don't really buy this spin about most of them thinking they had until the autumn and so being forced into this. One or two, sure, but anyone who has contacts who know MPs will be aware that MPs have had no clue when the election might be for ages, even ministers have guessed every date under the sun, so only a total fool among them would have not even contemplated what they might have to decide if an election were sooner than that.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,329

    So, those of us who are disabled, we get what, a lucky dip for the next draw?
    Unfortunately you can only rail against what you know, not what you don't.
    It’s David Hume’s point about how his toothache troubles him more than the Lisbon earthquake.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,811

    She should've been cast into the outer darkness over that. She denies it now, and says it was all a bit of a misunderstanding, but it was wholly deliberate and incredibly nasty.
    Whatever the intent, it was latched onto by the party establishment to destroy Leadsom's candidature.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,593
    megasaur said:

    Bit more complicated than that. I am just listening to early Genesis and I am not thinking it's good because it's by some Charterhouse boys but because it's actually good.

    The Tories could do with some Stagnation in the endless hourly stories of their campaign disasterthon
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,039
    kyf_100 said:

    What's the percentage of our PMs who went to public school? What's the percentage who went to Eton? How does that percentage compare to society at large?

    Only 34% of barristers went to state school.

    60% of charting musicians in 2010 went to private schools. Don't quote me on the number of actors. etc.

    The disproportionate sway the 7% that were privately educated have over British public life is enormous, and we'd be fools to dismiss it, against all the statistical evidence. And I say this as one of the 7%.

    Is it a Masonic Brotherhood, with a secret handshake where *only* those who know the secret code can get on in life? Of course not. Is it a club to which membership grants enormous perks, from networking with the right sort at an early age, to knowing how to behave at dinner? Of course.

    The UK is as divided by class as it's always been.





    It’s not as simple as secret handshakes. It’s because Public/Private schools have facilities and extracurricular activities that lend themselves to success in a lot of these sectors.

    Debating societies are big at public schools, and debating from a young age either attracts kids to the cut and thrust of being a barrister or gives them an advantage in years of soft practice. Public schools usually have a couple of theatres and each house does annual plays along with school plays and side productions and the facilities and grounds make it possible for theatre troupes to perform easily and regularly so again, pupils get exposure and experience.

    It’s not that state school kids are missing out on contacts more that state schools cannot provide the facilities, time, money, desire, to do the things that make entry into these areas easier, or frankly make it something that their students are aware of as a career.

    First stop is to change the school system so they don’t all fuck off home at 3pm and school is until at least 6pm, preferably with every pupil having some food, and doing their homework on premises and doing activities in these extra hours - these extra hours that stop one of the parents having to work part time to get home to look after the kids at 3pm which would improve productivity.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242
    DM_Andy said:

    If it's really bad - Christopher Chope?
    Steady on, there are limits to what would be funny and not horrifying.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155

    Perhaps he’ll end up having to ask Farage to stand as a Tory candidate.
    Pick me! Pick me!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NF95MMcn_B0
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    kle4 said:

    I must say I don't really buy this spin about most of them thinking they had until the autumn and so being forced into this. One or two, sure, but anyone who has contacts who know MPs will be aware that MPs have had no clue when the election might be for ages, even ministers have guessed every date under the sun, so only a total fool among them would have not even contemplated what they might have to decide if an election were sooner than that.
    would you go to an interview when you knew you were not going to get the job? or go on holiday instead?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Andy_JS said:

    If it's so awful here, why is this country one of the top destinations for people from all over the world?
    Because its not exclusively shit here?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,656
    TimS said:

    You’ll be voting Tory then. Well done Rishi.
    No I will vote for whoever is best placed to keep a lib dem out, frankly I will even vote green or hitler or pol pot or labour if it means the lib dems don't get a seat
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,379
    TimS said:

    You’ll be voting Tory then. Well done Rishi.
    Actually, the bigger threat, according to "the polls", is Labour but I imagine @Pagan2 would be quite happy to see Labour win the seat.

    https://www.exmouthjournal.co.uk/news/24341007.exmouth-exeter-east-polls-predict-general-election/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242

    just had a nibble on william Hill for SNP to have most scottish seats at 100/30. Think Swinney is more popular to potential SNP voters than Hamza was

    I'm bullish about their chances, might give that a go.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127

    would you go to an interview when you knew you were not going to get the job? or go on holiday instead?
    Plenty of us have stood as candidates for local or national when we knew there was no chance at all of being elected.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 575
    Ratters said:

    Has anyone ever been to a comedy show with an unknown comedian who has, for one reason or another, fallen flat at the start of the show? No laughter and awkward silence for the first few jokes.

    When I've seen it happen it ends up with a downward spiral. The comedian is less relaxed, more techy, less funny than they usually are. The audience is suspicious, expecting to find fault with each joke.

    This is how the start to the Tory election campaign has felt to me.

    I suspect the tory campaign might unwind completely by July... it could get really ugly.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425

    Sounds like the sort of thing you get on a specialist web site.
    You mean pb.com?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,109
    Anyone who spends one second of their life feeling inferior to toffs is a bit of an idiot imo.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    boulay said:

    It’s not as simple as secret handshakes. It’s because Public/Private schools have facilities and extracurricular activities that lend themselves to success in a lot of these sectors.

    Debating societies are big at public schools, and debating from a young age either attracts kids to the cut and thrust of being a barrister or gives them an advantage in years of soft practice. Public schools usually have a couple of theatres and each house does annual plays along with school plays and side productions and the facilities and grounds make it possible for theatre troupes to perform easily and regularly so again, pupils get exposure and experience.

    It’s not that state school kids are missing out on contacts more that state schools cannot provide the facilities, time, money, desire, to do the things that make entry into these areas easier, or frankly make it something that their students are aware of as a career.

    First stop is to change the school system so they don’t all fuck off home at 3pm and school is until at least 6pm, preferably with every pupil having some food, and doing their homework on premises and doing activities in these extra hours - these extra hours that stop one of the parents having to work part time to get home to look after the kids at 3pm which would improve productivity.
    Shame about the loss of playing fields, though. Council libraries. And so on.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766

    The Tories could do with some Stagnation in the endless hourly stories of their campaign disasterthon
    out of interest is that now you in the avatar ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242
    DM_Andy said:

    Plenty of us have stood as candidates for local or national when we knew there was no chance at all of being elected.
    People have done it and then still been elected!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,656
    stodge said:

    Actually, the bigger threat, according to "the polls", is Labour but I imagine @Pagan2 would be quite happy to see Labour win the seat.

    https://www.exmouthjournal.co.uk/news/24341007.exmouth-exeter-east-polls-predict-general-election/
    I actually don't care who wins the seat as long as its not a lib dem
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377
    geoffw said:

     Since when has Battersea been twinned with Walthamstow?

    Northern Line to Euston (or King's Cross), then change to the Victoria Line.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,394
    megasaur said:

    Bit more complicated than that. I am just listening to early Genesis and I am not thinking it's good because it's by some Charterhouse boys but because it's actually good.

    Apparently at the cabinet meeting on Wednesday, Nutsack quoted "The Knife"

    We have won
    Some of you are going to die
    Martyrs of course to the freedom that I shall provide
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,329
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone who spends one second of their life feeling inferior to toffs is a bit of an idiot imo.

    Weak-minded.
  • RedditchRedditch Posts: 31

    Because its not exclusively shit here?
    Sure this country is probably ok compared to Afghanistan. Not saying much though is it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited May 2024
    Ratters said:

    Has anyone ever been to a comedy show with an unknown comedian who has, for one reason or another, fallen flat at the start of the show? No laughter and awkward silence for the first few jokes.

    When I've seen it happen it ends up with a downward spiral. The comedian is less relaxed, more techy, less funny than they usually are. The audience is suspicious, expecting to find fault with each joke.

    This is how the start to the Tory election campaign has felt to me.

    The difference is at least a comedian comes prepared with a plan of what jokes to tell, events can cause this to fail. The Tories appear to have zero plan.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953
    megasaur said:

    Bit more complicated than that. I am just listening to early Genesis and I am not thinking it's good because it's by some Charterhouse boys but because it's actually good.

    On the subject that Genesis were awesome, you will get no disagreement from me. Radiohead of course were at Abingdon, where there might be more disagreement.

    As someone who lived and worked outside the UK for a few years, it's really noticeable when you come back, how riven by the pecking order we all remain. There will be exceptions outside that for good or for evil - nobody is suggesting Girls Aloud went to Cheltenham Ladies. But statistically, whether you want to be an actress/musician or the next PM, going to the right school does seem to be a bit of a leg up.

    I think the UK has done a fantastic job of *looking* more meritocratic than it used to be in the latter 20th century, but have things really changed that much? The continuing dominance of poshos be it in music/theatre, business or politics, suggests not.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,593
    Scott_xP said:

    @Peston
    Senior Tories expect a significant number of further MP resignations over the weekend, in the wake of Gove’s and Leadsom’s decisions not to fight the election. Quite a number who have been re-approved as candidates have been in two minds, and thought they had till the autumn to decide. The party has more than 150 seats and rising with no candidate. That is a lot of candidates for CCHQ to find before 7 June and a lot of wasted campaigning days. It does rather indicate Sunak called the election before his party was ready

    The list will include some who have already said they are definitely running now changing their minds. Has to. And not just people who said a while back they were definitely running. Easy to say "yes I'm running" and then start knocking on doors and realise you're going to get thrashed.

    Do the Tories have a contingency plan to fill seats they currently hold? Press-ganging councillors to run. But a lot of councillors don't want to be MPs. Easy enough to accidentally make a mistake on your paperwork.

    I think we could see seats that currently have a Tory MP not have a Tory candidate...
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,859
    TimS said:

    You’ll be voting Tory then. Well done Rishi.
    The mind boggles, Pagan2 has nearly 9000 posts on PB and claims not to have bothered to vote for the last 3 GEs.

    It takes all sorts.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155

    Indeed so. I find her deeply unpleasant.
    Sometimes nicknames are apt, as in Loathsome's case.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 575

    Just had a speculative bet on the tories getting under 50 seats at 14/1. There is no fight left or even candidates , Sunak is proving an utter disaster
    I might do this too.... perhaps just £20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone who spends one second of their life feeling inferior to toffs is a bit of an idiot imo.

    How people feel about toffs is not the main issue. It's whether toffs, or others, have outsized influence that is stubbornly ingrained by our institutions and culture.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,656
    Farooq said:

    A vote from the person who wants over 80s to be killed was THE plum endorsement. The opposition parties must be distraught that sensible, stable centrists like Pagan2 are breaking Conservative. Five more years! Five more years!
    erm I have never asked for over 80's to be killed nor have I voted conservative in 2015, 2017 nor 2019 and even this time would only vote tory tactically if it kept a lib dem psycho out of a seat
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone who spends one second of their life feeling inferior to toffs is a bit of an idiot imo.

    That's different from feeling annoyed/concerned at their presumption that you are inferior, though!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited May 2024
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone who spends one second of their life feeling inferior to toffs is a bit of an idiot imo.

    In my experience, proper poshos aren't a problem, met loads at uni and had a good laugh (despite me being just a lad from Stoke whose parents didn't go to uni) is the ones that are trying hard to seem like they are.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    DM_Andy said:

    Plenty of us have stood as candidates for local or national when we knew there was no chance at all of being elected.
    not when you are the incumbent though
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242

    would you go to an interview when you knew you were not going to get the job? or go on holiday instead?
    That depends - do they still get a higher parachute payment if they are defeated in an election versus standing down?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766
    Redditch said:

    Sure this country is probably ok compared to Afghanistan. Not saying much though is it.
    Do you live in Redditch ?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,394
    Ratters said:

    Has anyone ever been to a comedy show with an unknown comedian who has, for one reason or another, fallen flat at the start of the show? No laughter and awkward silence for the first few jokes.

    When I've seen it happen it ends up with a downward spiral. The comedian is less relaxed, more techy, less funny than they usually are. The audience is suspicious, expecting to find fault with each joke.

    This is how the start to the Tory election campaign has felt to me.

    Worse

    I saw that happen, in Glasgow. Having decided the guy was not funny, the audience proceeded to rip him apart.

    Lions from the Coliseum were taking notes...
  • eekeek Posts: 29,478

    Just had a speculative bet on the tories getting under 50 seats at 14/1. There is no fight left or even candidates , Sunak is proving an utter disaster
    25-1 at Bet365 for 49 seats or less.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Redditch said:

    Sure this country is probably ok compared to Afghanistan. Not saying much though is it.
    Nope. Aspiration should reach beyond not being the ninth circle of hell
  • Seb Payne's chances of getting selected for a seat just went up a notch. Banter timeline demands Labour select Paul Mason for the same seat.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850

    Just had a speculative bet on the tories getting under 50 seats at 14/1. There is no fight left or even candidates , Sunak is proving an utter disaster
    actually noticed bet365 have it at 25/1 and 50-100 at 4/1 - worth a bet on total collapse from what i have seen
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,329
    kle4 said:

    The two parts of that sentence can both be true.

    Things being worse in another place does not mean we have to be grateful for things in this place which could still be better.

    That's like saying we have no reason to complain about the government because at least here they don't shoot you for doing so.
    But, on this forum, it’s mostly comparatively rich people going on about the hell of living in a wealthy liberal democracy.
  • RedditchRedditch Posts: 31

    Just had a speculative bet on the tories getting under 50 seats at 14/1. There is no fight left or even candidates , Sunak is proving an utter disaster
    I think a bet on under 100 seats is certainly worth a shot here.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766
    Sean_F said:

    But, on this forum, it’s mostly comparatively rich people going on about the hell of living in a wealthy liberal democracy.
    quite
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    Scott_xP said:

    Worse

    I saw that happen, in Glasgow. Having decided the guy was not funny, the audience proceeded to rip him apart.

    Lions from the Coliseum were taking notes...
    Jongleurs back in the day use to be brutal if the crowd throught you were shit. That is why the ones that survived and prospered have excellent audience management / banter.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,039
    Carnyx said:

    Shame about the loss of playing fields, though. Council libraries. And so on.
    Absolutely - that’s not the fault of the public schools though, it’s the fault of successive governments and an obsession with quick money over long term investment in people and business that infects the country.

    I want every child to have the education I had. I loved it. I would contemplate going back tomorrow if it didn’t look a bit dodgy a man in his forties going to a boys boarding school. I want every kid in the uk to eat like a pig three times a day, have to play spots seven hours a week and cultural exercise a minimum of five hours a week and the facilities to do that. I want parents to also hand over their kids to the school for many more hours and the state to support that because we will have a better country, the best investment we could make.

    That should be the first thing alongside defence the state should pay for. Then work out what health spending is vital, the what’s good then what’s “nice”.

    Build the foundations well, healthy educated interested happy children will create a better country. Maybe give them all black shirts or something so they all feel part of a whole.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126

    The list will include some who have already said they are definitely running now changing their minds. Has to. And not just people who said a while back they were definitely running. Easy to say "yes I'm running" and then start knocking on doors and realise you're going to get thrashed.

    Do the Tories have a contingency plan to fill seats they currently hold? Press-ganging councillors to run. But a lot of councillors don't want to be MPs. Easy enough to accidentally make a mistake on your paperwork.

    I think we could see seats that currently have a Tory MP not have a Tory candidate...
    I don't think so. There are plenty enough people who want to be an MP, and who will, not unreasonably, think that if they are in their 20s or 30s then there is plenty of time for the Tories to recover.

    The Tories might come to wish that they hadn't found these people to stand for them, were they to be elected, and to turn out as well as O'Mara. But that's a problem for another day.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,656

    The mind boggles, Pagan2 has nearly 9000 posts on PB and claims not to have bothered to vote for the last 3 GEs.

    It takes all sorts.
    I don't vote anymore because there is no one worth voting for. I regard labour, tory, lib dem and green manifesto's as unlikely to fix anything. I believe we need to reconfigure our democracy completely as it no longer works. I even wrote a thread header on the subject. Refusing to take part in something you believe a farce and wanting something different does not make you apolitical. It merely means you think our democracy as it stands is a pointless charade
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Scott_xP said:

    Worse

    I saw that happen, in Glasgow. Having decided the guy was not funny, the audience proceeded to rip him apart.

    Lions from the Coliseum were taking notes...
    I used to do stand up at open mic nights/very low grade pub gigs as a hobby. If the first joke falls utterly flat I'd cut it to the quick and get off ASAP. I think my record was a minute and I was OUTTA there
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,389
    Scott_xP said:

    He is (he says) the most popular politician in Scotland.

    Fill your boots...
    He's not wrong.

    Net favourability of politicians among Scots

    John Swinney: -3
    Keir Starmer: -11
    Anas Sarwar: -13
    Kate Forbes: -14
    Nicola Sturgeon: -20
    Lorna Slater: -25
    Patrick Harvie: -26
    Douglas Ross: -34
    Humza Yousaf: -40
    Rishi Sunak: -61


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1792556377505759656
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    PB Pop Quiz - What are the impacts of the "Maurice Debate" and its ramifications, upon the 2024 UK general election and its results?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,562
    Redditch said:

    I think a bet on under 100 seats is certainly worth a shot here.
    Betting on extreme results is a good strategy in most betting markets where extreme conditions prevail.

    This would certainly apply to political markets.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242
    Sean_F said:

    But, on this forum, it’s mostly comparatively rich people going on about the hell of living in a wealthy liberal democracy.
    I think it can be generally assumed to be a bit of hyperbole, but I don't rule out that some genuinely think that.
  • kle4 said:

    That depends - do they still get a higher parachute payment if they are defeated in an election versus standing down?
    They do, but it's relatively minor. A few grand - which you need to set against a six week slog and the embarrassment of losing over retiring. A few MPs historically have been really keen on it, to the point of standing in a hopeless neighbouring seat as a kamikaze retirement. But that's been cracked down on, and most just see it as demeaning.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,110
    edited May 2024
    Leon said:

    Yes, Sunak is actually quite exemplary. His parents slaved away to give him a great start, he has clearly worked bloody hard to get where he is

    He's not from old money, he's not got a title, he's the product of one family doing its very best for their kids. His backstory is, in fact, admirable - and he's done it with brown skin in a largely white country. Enough of the sneering

    I'm still not gonna vote for him, but I will defend him from the sneerers
    Not even when about his dress sense?
    Starmer’s is as shite btw, in a different way. Swinney’s just about works in an elder of the C of S who manages the Perth Morrison’s sense.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242

    He's not wrong.

    Net favourability of politicians among Scots

    John Swinney: -3
    Keir Starmer: -11
    Anas Sarwar: -13
    Kate Forbes: -14
    Nicola Sturgeon: -20
    Lorna Slater: -25
    Patrick Harvie: -26
    Douglas Ross: -34
    Humza Yousaf: -40
    Rishi Sunak: -61


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1792556377505759656
    No Salmond?

    Poor Alba, we hardly knew ye.
  • RedditchRedditch Posts: 31
    kle4 said:

    The two parts of that sentence can both be true.

    Things being worse in another place does not mean we have to be grateful for things in this place which could still be better.

    That's like saying we have no reason to complain about the government because at least here they don't shoot you for doing so.
    Also in what countries is it worse. Certainly not in Scandinavia, Germany, Canada, the USA, Australia countries we should be comparing ourselves to. Or maybe you think the UK is such a basketcase its pointless comparing ourselves to those countries anymore.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,039

    In my experience, proper poshos aren't a problem, met loads at uni and had a good laugh (despite me being just a lad from Stoke whose parents didn't go to uni) is the ones that are trying hard to seem like they are.
    I first read that as “just being a lad from Stowe” and I felt so sorry for you and then re-read and saw you wrote Stoke so at least it’s not as bad as it could have been.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,329
    kle4 said:

    I think it can be generally assumed to be a bit of hyperbole, but I don't rule out that some genuinely think that.
    Perhaps it’s a feature of getting older, perhaps a feature of doing a masters’ in military history, but I realise there are much worse fates.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,656
    Farooq said:

    "This is why we should go logan's run at 80 gives everyone a definite target"
    Your words, not mine. But sure, it's the Lib Dems who are the bad guys :lol:
    That was out of context as a joke ffs
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,562

    Do you live in Redditch ?
    Lol!

    I live not far from Redditch. It is actually very nice.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    edited May 2024
    boulay said:

    Absolutely - that’s not the fault of the public schools though, it’s the fault of successive governments and an obsession with quick money over long term investment in people and business that infects the country.

    I want every child to have the education I had. I loved it. I would contemplate going back tomorrow if it didn’t look a bit dodgy a man in his forties going to a boys boarding school. I want every kid in the uk to eat like a pig three times a day, have to play spots seven hours a week and cultural exercise a minimum of five hours a week and the facilities to do that. I want parents to also hand over their kids to the school for many more hours and the state to support that because we will have a better country, the best investment we could make.

    That should be the first thing alongside defence the state should pay for. Then work out what health spending is vital, the what’s good then what’s “nice”.

    Build the foundations well, healthy educated interested happy children will create a better country. Maybe give them all black shirts or something so they all feel part of a whole.
    That PB favourite topic again - private education ! I could not care less about private education as children are born lucky or unlucky in many ways , only one of which is having a private education (one might argue it could be counted as unlucky anyway) . Other ways that are just life luck are

    health
    looks
    parents
    IQ
    being talent spotted (or not)
    etc etc

    Nobody suggests we should all have the same standard of parents or indeed the same number or that good lookers have to have a scar or two do they? Its life and life is not fair
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,011

    Robert Peston
    @Peston

    Senior Tories expect a significant number of further MP resignations over the weekend, in the wake of Gove’s and Leadsom’s decisions not to fight the election. Quite a number who have been re-approved as candidates have been in two minds, and thought they had till the autumn to decide. The party has more than 150 seats and rising with no candidate. That is a lot of candidates for CCHQ to find before 7 June and a lot of wasted campaigning days. It does rather indicate Sunak called the election before his party was ready

    https://x.com/Peston/status/1794090015674277938
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,921
    I'm a little bit sad at all this. Redwood, Leadsome, Gove etc al were people doing the best they could for the country. I disagreed with most of what they did, sometimes vehemently, but that doesn't mean I overlook the fact that they were people and that their departure is the end of an era. I'm pleased they are leaving but sad to see them go, if that makes sense. ☹️
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,600
    DM_Andy said:

    Plenty of us have stood as candidates for local or national when we knew there was no chance at all of being elected.
    Having no chance of winning was a precondition to get me to stand.

    Be a Councillor? You're having a laugh!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126
    edited May 2024
    Okay, so here's something to ponder. The wikipedia opinion poll graph has been updated and - caveats aplenty about the endpoints - it's notable that, since the start of April, when Reform peaked at 13%, they have lost 2pp. Over the same period, Labour are up 2pp and the Tories are flat.

    This, of course, isn't proof of anything, but it is worth considering where we might end up if Reform do decline to about 5% or so, and those votes go to Labour, instead of the Tories.

    The LOESS smooth opinion poll graph from Wikipedia, innit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,329
    Redditch said:

    Also in what countries is it worse. Certainly not in Scandinavia, Germany, Canada, the USA, Australia countries we should be comparing ourselves to. Or maybe you think the UK is such a basketcase its pointless comparing ourselves to those countries anymore.
    The USA? The USA is the modern Rome. The rewards for success are immense, but you don’t want to contemplate the penalties for failure.

    And perhaps that is what makes the USA so great.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766

    Lol!

    I live not far from Redditch. It is actually very nice.
    So do I, its my local town. I assume youre in worcestershire
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    When is the cut off for candidates? With such short notice these is going to be so right fruitcakes that sneak through.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,478

    When is the cut off for candidates? With such short notice these is going to be so right fruitcakes that sneak through.

    June 7th....
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236

    IMV subsequent events have shown that Brexit was the wrong side of the argument. A divisive, pointless argument which has damaged the country.

    I have a vague impression, perhaps wrong, that you will disagree with me on this... ;)
    Comprehensively. If it was divisive well, that is politics for you and that was as much because of those who would not accept the result as those who embraced it. And of course it certainly wasn't pointless as history will show. Nor do I believe it has damaged the country. It is the Tory party that has done that and they would still have been there being useless with or without Brexit.

    I imagine there were many in North America claiming that American Independence was divisive, pointless and damaged the country. We don't remember their whining today.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953
    viewcode said:

    I'm a little bit sad at all this. Redwood, Leadsome, Gove etc al were people doing the best they could for the country. I disagreed with most of what they did, sometimes vehemently, but that doesn't mean I overlook the fact that they were people and that their departure is the end of an era. I'm pleased they are leaving but sad to see them go, if that makes sense. ☹️

    Gove I actually liked, for what he tried to do on leasehold reform.

    Less so once his proposals got watered down, the second it was obvious who pays the piper, but he was infinitely preferable to Jenrick on day 1.

    Now the question will be whether Labour do anything about it, or the developer lobby hobbles them, too. Tbh, not holding out much hope.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,478

    Betting on extreme results is a good strategy in most betting markets where extreme conditions prevail.

    This would certainly apply to political markets.
    The Tories getting 49 seats or less is an unlikely result - I think there is more than a 4% chance of it occurring though so I've taken Bet365's offer of 25-1 up...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,394
    The way it's going, you wouldn't bet against this...

    @ayeshahazarika

    At this rate, I’m wondering if Rishi Sunak might announce he’s standing down as an MP


    The tragedy is he wants to do it, but he has to wait until he loses humiliatingly before he can do it for real.
  • sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 194

    Not even when about his dress sense?
    Starmer’s is as shite btw, in a different way. Swinney’s just about works in an elder of the C of S who manages the Perth Morrison’s.
    You know that Sunak's father was a GP, the pharmacy, which we tend to hear more about, was the mother's business.
    They paid normal fees at Winchester after prep school. I'm sure the parents worked hard at their jobs but it was a standard middle class existence.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,011
    eek said:

    The Tories getting 49 seats or less is an unlikely result - I think there is more than a 4% chance of it occurring though so I've taken Bet365's offer of 25-1 up...
    Likewise on BF at 26.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,394
    As of tonight, RefUK have more confirmed candidates than the Tories
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,410
    ...
    viewcode said:

    I'm a little bit sad at all this. Redwood, Leadsome, Gove etc al were people doing the best they could for the country. I disagreed with most of what they did, sometimes vehemently, but that doesn't mean I overlook the fact that they were people and that their departure is the end of an era. I'm pleased they are leaving but sad to see them go, if that makes sense. ☹️

    I'm quite surprised that you're pleased Redwood is leaving. It doesn't say very much for your judgement. Oh well.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,478

    The list will include some who have already said they are definitely running now changing their minds. Has to. And not just people who said a while back they were definitely running. Easy to say "yes I'm running" and then start knocking on doors and realise you're going to get thrashed.

    Do the Tories have a contingency plan to fill seats they currently hold? Press-ganging councillors to run. But a lot of councillors don't want to be MPs. Easy enough to accidentally make a mistake on your paperwork.

    I think we could see seats that currently have a Tory MP not have a Tory candidate...
    Would say it's hard for the paperwork to be screwed up to the extent they don't have a Tory candidate on nomination day.

    Where I think they will screw up is in completely vetting social media accounts and a few will have items in the closet which will get picked up on.

    Remember Reform has had a remove 100 candidates since the beginning of the year due to discoveries of inappropriate behaviour in the past - I can imagine the tory party could easily select a few candidates with similar issues...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,011

    When is the cut off for candidates? With such short notice these is going to be so right fruitcakes that sneak through.

    Yep.
  • When is the cut off for candidates? With such short notice these is going to be so right fruitcakes that sneak through.

    Can CCHQ airdrop favoured people in at this stage, or is it not how it works? There are various CCHQ choices who have not quite made it to date so, in a way, this might be welcome (albeit the impression it gives is poor).

    Whilst nothing is safe in a bloodbath, many of these are seats for life IF they survive 4th July.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,329

    Comprehensively. If it was divisive well, that is politics for you and that was as much because of those who would not accept the result as those who embraced it. And of course it certainly wasn't pointless as history will show. Nor do I believe it has damaged the country. It is the Tory party that has done that and they would still have been there being useless with or without Brexit.

    I imagine there were many in North America claiming that American Independence was divisive, pointless and damaged the country. We don't remember their whining today.
    One of the great “what ifs” of history, is to envisage a world where the revolt is put down.

    Does slavery get abolished in 1833, or does the fight over slavery extend across the empire?

    Does British America expand West? Would there be an American Indian State, perhaps becoming a British dominion?

    Does South West America remain part of Mexico?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766
    Scott_xP said:

    As of tonight, RefUK have more confirmed candidates than the Tories

    maybe they should merge and save themselves a lot of hassle
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425
    Leon said:

    Indeed. See the contempt on this site for Rishi Sunak for his sin of having hard-working, hard-caring parents who spent every penny sending him to great schools, where he ALSO worked hard (head boy) and then got a really good lucrative job

    What a wanker! How dare he! And an Indian! We like our minorities to be oppressed gang bangers who get wrongly shot by police while doing drug deals, thanks, so they don't get any uppity ideas about actually succeeding
    I fear it will do irreparable damage to our international reputation if our first ethnically Indian Prime Minister is swept out of office in a wave of nativism instigated by "the political wing of the British people" with a leader who openly uses nationalist imagery.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377

    I fear it will do irreparable damage to our international reputation if our first ethnically Indian Prime Minister is swept out of office in a wave of nativism instigated by "the political wing of the British people" with a leader who openly uses nationalist imagery.
    I'm ethnically Indian, I see no reason to vote Rishi *just because* he's also ethnically Indian.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    i would sell tory seats big time at 165 if I was still a spread better!
  • sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 194
    sbjme19 said:

    You know that Sunak's father was a GP, the pharmacy, which we tend to hear more about, was the mother's business.
    They paid normal fees at Winchester after prep school. I'm sure the parents worked hard at their jobs but it was a standard middle class existence.
    Sorry this was really in reply to Leon.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377

    maybe they should merge and save themselves a lot of hassle
    RefecTory.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,389
    I think I shall put my name forward to become a Tory MP.

    2024 - Become MP

    2027 - Become Leader of His Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition

    2029 - Become PM after winning a landslide at the general election

    I have it all mapped out.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,921

    ...

    I'm quite surprised that you're pleased Redwood is leaving. It doesn't say very much for your judgement. Oh well.
    I think you may have missed the winsome ambiguity that I thought I had made obvious.
  • Scott_xP said:

    As of tonight, RefUK have more confirmed candidates than the Tories

    And how many of them are still breathing? Because RefUK have a mixed record on checking.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,011

    I think I shall put my name forward to become a Tory MP.

    2024 - Become MP

    2027 - Become Leader of His Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition

    2029 - Become PM after winning a landslide at the general election

    I have it all mapped out.

    See my last post. LOL.
This discussion has been closed.