The spreads are open – politicalbetting.com

Leon said:

Heathener said:

Leon said:

londonpubman said:

Andy_JS said:

Stuartinromford said:

Meanwhile, in "once the election is called, that will focus minds" news,

First @techneUK poll of the election

Labour 45%
Tory 19%
Reform 14%
LD 12%
Green 5%

First time the Tories have been under 20% with Techne.


https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1793712476816912724

How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?

At least the Tories can't go any lower than 19%. Or maybe they can.

CON would be on 50 seats on that poll!

However there were polls showing similar LAB leads early in 1997 campaign.

This is a new era. I reckon the Tories are gonna get the blame for EVERYTHING that has gone wrong since 2019. Not just Brexit (which is deserved), not just immigration and small boats (MORE than deserved) but also Covid, Ukraine, Gaza, inflation, Cameron, the Coalition, Clegg, student fees, litter, bad weather, my nan, your divorce, the decline of Bake Off, Man City winning too many times, kicking out Boris, the state of the high street, the state of your wife's face, your recent parking fine, you name it, the voters are going to blame the Govt for EVERYTHING and they are going to give this hapless bunch of spineless posho chancers the biggest kicking we have seen in British electoral history, out of sheer spite, venom, revenge and anger

They should be thankful Farage bottled it, if he was in it, I reckon Reform could actually get more votes than the Tories. As it is I can EASILY say the Tories slipping under 100 seats

You forgot one. Liz Truss killed The Queen.

Indeed. The Queen. The fuckers KILLED THE QUEEN

I disagree with you on almost everything. OK everything, but I agree with you on this. This election is potentially unprecedented in its horror for the governing party, the anger and contempt for the Tories is off the dial

They have successfully alienated everyone apart from wealthy pensioners who love mass, unchecked immigration. This is a small cohort, to put it mildly. It's probably Roger

Foxy said:

Incidentally, we inhabit a hell of a bubble. I have had a busy day, amongst both patients and staff.

No one has mentioned the GE or any politician, nor have I overheard anyone speaking of it.

Scott_xP said:

@robfordmancs

Making the bet was already an unforced error (two very rich men joking about £1k as if it is pocket change). Sunak has managed to compound it, on day 1 of an election campaign.

Ratters said:

So what are the key election milestones?

- Campaign launch: main point of note I've heard several people joke about was Rishi in the rain

- Initial polling response this weekend and next week: do we see an initial shift as the date is set, or a continuation of the recent trend? Could shape the narrative

- Manifesto launch: when can we expect these? Does anyone read them?

- Debates: will we have any, how many and who with? Difficult one to determine as, other than the main two parties, you have SNP in clear third place in seats, Lib Dems likely to win seats but neck and neck with Reform in polling, and the Green party not that far behind. I expect we just see Labour Vs Tories.

What other key events am I missing?

RochdalePioneers said:

Scott_xP said:

@PolitlcsUK

🚨 NEW: Rishi Sunak is refusing to honour Piers Morgan’s £1000 charity bet as an asylum seeker was voluntarily sent to Rwanda

@jamesrbuk
Also, this smacks of bad staff work – this was absolutely going to come up in this interview, and they surely gamed it out. How was a multimillionaire PM refusing to donate £1,000 to charity the best outcome they could find?

Moron: "I bet you a thousand pounds you don't get anybody on those planes [to Rwanda] before the election"

To be fair to Sunak (ewwww) the bet wasn't specific enough to exclude Sunak *paying* someone to get on a plane to Rwanda...

Foxy said:

Incidentally, we inhabit a hell of a bubble. I have had a busy day, amongst both patients and staff.

No one has mentioned the GE or any politician, nor have I overheard anyone speaking of it.

Foxy said:

Incidentally, we inhabit a hell of a bubble. I have had a busy day, amongst both patients and staff.

No one has mentioned the GE or any politician, nor have I overheard anyone speaking of it.

MoonRabbit said:

Ratters said:

So what are the key election milestones?

- Campaign launch: main point of note I've heard several people joke about was Rishi in the rain

- Initial polling response this weekend and next week: do we see an initial shift as the date is set, or a continuation of the recent trend? Could shape the narrative

- Manifesto launch: when can we expect these? Does anyone read them?

- Debates: will we have any, how many and who with? Difficult one to determine as, other than the main two parties, you have SNP in clear third place in seats, Lib Dems likely to win seats but neck and neck with Reform in polling, and the Green party not that far behind. I expect we just see Labour Vs Tories.

What other key events am I missing?

“Manifesto launch: when can we expect these? Does anyone read them?”

They will be poured over by opponents. If Labours manifesto has Dementia Tax or a Welsh Government style Garden Tax, then bye bye poll lead.

dixiedean said:

MoonRabbit said:

Ratters said:

So what are the key election milestones?

- Campaign launch: main point of note I've heard several people joke about was Rishi in the rain

- Initial polling response this weekend and next week: do we see an initial shift as the date is set, or a continuation of the recent trend? Could shape the narrative

- Manifesto launch: when can we expect these? Does anyone read them?

- Debates: will we have any, how many and who with? Difficult one to determine as, other than the main two parties, you have SNP in clear third place in seats, Lib Dems likely to win seats but neck and neck with Reform in polling, and the Green party not that far behind. I expect we just see Labour Vs Tories.

What other key events am I missing?

“Manifesto launch: when can we expect these? Does anyone read them?”

They will be poured over by opponents. If Labours manifesto has Dementia Tax or a Welsh Government style Garden Tax, then bye bye poll lead.

But it won't.
Labour has been as safe as an extraordinarily cautious thing under Starmer.

PJH said:

Heathener said:

Cicero said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.

I am not a spread bettor, the downside is too much for me. I had a spread markets one once but traded out and slept better. One concern is on liquidity.

So, take the LD spread. Its very unlikely that LDs will go below 10, and 15 would be a realistic minimum, so the maximum win is 22 times the stake. On the other side a 1997 style result could lose a similar sum. A Blue Wall blowout with collapsing Tory vote and LDs having a good election could conceivably reach 100 seats. Unlikely but possible. That would be 60 times the stake. The risks are just too asymmetrical for me.

The Tories have given up. Hearing astonishing things in places like Surrey. Feels like this could be an election where the old rules get junked.

Interesting. Surrey is definitely one to watch. Could be some major scalps with the blue county turning yellow.

And if you are right, this will be a seismic event. Assuming I have counted up correctly, since 1918 a total of 236 constituency elections have taken place in the current boundaries of Surrey and the Tories won 235 of them, the sole exception being the LD win in Guildford in 2001.

(If you go back further to 1885, there were 3 Liberal wins in 1906. And that's it.)

Scott_xP said:

@benrileysmith

NEW

Rishi Sunak has accused Keir Starmer of not having the “courage” to face him in TV debates and discuss his plans


This from the guy who put 2 Tory plants in the audience for his first event and refused to take questions from real journalists

not_on_fire said:

Casino_Royale said:

I'm already shitting myself about the 10pm SJC exit poll.

Anyone else feel the same?

I doubt anyone who was on the site at the time will ever forget the 2017 poll

Foxy said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

rcs1000 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

This may be a waste of my allotted image, but I was genuinely surprised at the mere idea that a YIMBY or NIMBY group should be expected to take a position on this issue.

The first question I ask anyone I don't know is always "So, what's your position on Gaza?".

If I do know them, it's different. Instead I say "I just want to check, your position on Gaza hasn't changed has it?"

Candidly, I can't imagine any other way to be.

Gaza isn't really about Gaza at all, which very few give a fuck about.

It's just social proof for Progressives.

"Why is a young man like you concerned about Northern Ireland? What about Vietnam? What about Rhodesia?" - Barbara Castle to Paul Rose MP, in 1967.

Of course, Northern Ireland is - errrr - in the United Kingdom. So being concerned about doesn't exactly sound like a stretch.

I think the take-home is that Castle was more concerned about Vietnam and Rhodesia (as was) than social policy (etc.) in part of the UK.

In 1967, Northern Ireland was just starting to unravel. Paul Rose was one of few who were concerned or even noticed. This was five years before Bloody Sunday, for instance. Rhodesia's UDI (unilateral declaration of independence from Britain) had been a year or so earlier, and we all know about Vietnam.

The Americans were pressuring us to send troops to Vietnam (like South Korea, Australia and NZ) but Wilson refused. It was a big issue at the time. As was the White Supremacist regime in Rhodesia with its UDI.

Foxy said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Foxy said:

Incidentally, we inhabit a hell of a bubble. I have had a busy day, amongst both patients and staff.

No one has mentioned the GE or any politician, nor have I overheard anyone speaking of it.

Mum thinks we're entering a six-week period of utter tedium

Yes, That may well be so.

People have spoken to me about football, staff recruitment, ill colleagues, holiday plans etc, but no one about politics.

Even I had to switch off the news. Same old, same old.

Chameleon said:

The biggest political misjudgement I've made recently has been thinking that Sturgeon & Salmond were despotic control freaks, what with their no dissent line. Turns out that a large part of the reason they were as they were is that the rest of their party were idiots or clinically diagnosable. Remarkable self-immolation today.

Anyway I'm 3 years into my career living in London so nowhere near rich enough for the spreads - but overs on LDs and Lab looks value. LDs going to end up with the better part of 10 from Surrey and Oxfordshire alone. Sunak 10x more likely to blow up than Starmer in the campaign.

turbotubbs said:

Taz said:

turbotubbs said:

kyf_100 said:

turbotubbs said:

kyf_100 said:

turbotubbs said:

viewcode said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Taz said:

bigjohnowls said:

wooliedyed said:

Taz said:

wooliedyed said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

wooliedyed said:

Savanta have 44% saying Rishis launch in the rain went badly and..... um 35% think it went well

See the public saw Rishi Sunak as the embodiment of the greatest Doctor ever, that's a win for Rishi.

Tenant is a fecking arse. Get him off the thread

That’s the Doctor.

He's not MY doctor. He's no Eccleston

i like them all

I thought Peter Capaldi was a bit disappointing though

Whittaker was terrible but that may be more down to the scripts.

Whittaker's gabbling made her speech hard for my foreign chums to follow, although her stories were poor, and the set-up where the lady doctor trailed around her "fam" was vaguely misogynist.

Tennant was the best actor to play the Doctor.

Trivia: Capaldi is the only Doctor to have won an Oscar (as producer, not actor).

And if RTD is so bloody clever, how come the credits misnamed the character as Doctor Who, and the titles show the Tardis careering around like the starship Enterprise? And why do they keep redesigning the daleks and Tardis? And breathe!

I know Tennant Ten is technically the best, but I still have a soft spot for Matt Smith (from The Eleventh Hour to The Angels Take Manhattan(, and Peter Capaldi (from The Magician's Apprentice to Twice Upon a Time).

Every decision taken during the Chibnall era was wrong. It's pointless pointing to a specific one, since it was just one large steaming pile of wrong. Jodie's interpretation was wrong. The redesigned Daleks were wrong. The fam were wrong. The CyberTimeLords were wrong. Flux was an enormous serialised wrong. The costume was wrong. The Sunny Delight Master was wrong. The Timeless Child made me cry with the wrongness. It was just rubbish from day one to day last.

I’ve liked this but really want to like it ten times over. I’ve been a fan of Dr Who since the 1970’s. I’ve always been desperate to watch new WHO on TV right until Chibnall took over. So sad to not enjoy something that is an intimate part of my life.

Dr Who peaked with The Happiness Patrol, a satire of late 80s Britain featuring an army of Margaret Thatcher stand-ins and an off-brand Bertie Bassett as the Big Bad.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0rEe8ultJ4

It's all been downhill from there.

I cannot agree. The gothic era of Baker (Pyramids of Mars, Brain of Morbius etc) was the peak for old who. And the new version has had some brilliant episodes (Blink, Silence in the Library).

Ah, Blink was the first one with the stone angel baddies, wasn't it? That scared me even as an adult.

Sylvester McCoy remains my favourite Doctor, though, even if he did get more than his fair share of bad scripts and ridiculously low rent productions. Clownish at first, but darker and more manipulative as the series went on.

The Cartmel master plan foreshadows the narrative arcs of modern Who. I think McCoy suffered from a lot of stuff.

Not only that it set the template for the Virgin New adventures when the show was cancelled and they started a series of original novels.

By the final McCoy series the show was really hitting its stride.

Some good stuff in there although I recently rewatched Ghost Light. I have always remembered this as being superb, but the rewatch left me a little less keen. Ferric is excellent. And of course the previous season finally had a Daleks not defeated by a staircase…

Roger said:

Leon said:

Heathener said:

Leon said:

londonpubman said:

Andy_JS said:

Stuartinromford said:

Meanwhile, in "once the election is called, that will focus minds" news,

First @techneUK poll of the election

Labour 45%
Tory 19%
Reform 14%
LD 12%
Green 5%

First time the Tories have been under 20% with Techne.


https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1793712476816912724

How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?

At least the Tories can't go any lower than 19%. Or maybe they can.

CON would be on 50 seats on that poll!

However there were polls showing similar LAB leads early in 1997 campaign.

This is a new era. I reckon the Tories are gonna get the blame for EVERYTHING that has gone wrong since 2019. Not just Brexit (which is deserved), not just immigration and small boats (MORE than deserved) but also Covid, Ukraine, Gaza, inflation, Cameron, the Coalition, Clegg, student fees, litter, bad weather, my nan, your divorce, the decline of Bake Off, Man City winning too many times, kicking out Boris, the state of the high street, the state of your wife's face, your recent parking fine, you name it, the voters are going to blame the Govt for EVERYTHING and they are going to give this hapless bunch of spineless posho chancers the biggest kicking we have seen in British electoral history, out of sheer spite, venom, revenge and anger

They should be thankful Farage bottled it, if he was in it, I reckon Reform could actually get more votes than the Tories. As it is I can EASILY say the Tories slipping under 100 seats

You forgot one. Liz Truss killed The Queen.

Indeed. The Queen. The fuckers KILLED THE QUEEN

I disagree with you on almost everything. OK everything, but I agree with you on this. This election is potentially unprecedented in its horror for the governing party, the anger and contempt for the Tories is off the dial

They have successfully alienated everyone apart from wealthy pensioners who love mass, unchecked immigration. This is a small cohort, to put it mildly. It's probably Roger

.....More bad news for Rishi. I understand Labour are using the ultra imaginitive ad agency 'Lucky Generals' to handle their campaign. Unless they are tethered by a wary SKS brace yourselves for some very funny hard hitting ads.

MoonRabbit said:

Cookie said:

FPT:

Casino_Royale said:

I'm already shitting myself about the 10pm SJC exit poll.

Anyone else feel the same?

Not this time. Glumly resigned.

I was fucking terrified last time though. The only news medium I could bring myself to watch was the £:$ exchange rates. If it failed to plummet, we were in the clear.

I don't think I have ever felt so relieved in my life as when Labour failed to win the 2019 GE.

They'll clearly win the 2024 one. And it will be shit. But nothing like as shit as them winning in 2019 would have been. And the obviously entirely hypothetical situation of a Conservative win would be not much to cheer.

It’s still horrible to see a spread market come up saying 150 seats though?

That’s losing 200 MPs! And 1906 was reduced to 156, so on the cusp as that record.

Foxy said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

rcs1000 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

This may be a waste of my allotted image, but I was genuinely surprised at the mere idea that a YIMBY or NIMBY group should be expected to take a position on this issue.

The first question I ask anyone I don't know is always "So, what's your position on Gaza?".

If I do know them, it's different. Instead I say "I just want to check, your position on Gaza hasn't changed has it?"

Candidly, I can't imagine any other way to be.

Gaza isn't really about Gaza at all, which very few give a fuck about.

It's just social proof for Progressives.

"Why is a young man like you concerned about Northern Ireland? What about Vietnam? What about Rhodesia?" - Barbara Castle to Paul Rose MP, in 1967.

Of course, Northern Ireland is - errrr - in the United Kingdom. So being concerned about doesn't exactly sound like a stretch.

I think the take-home is that Castle was more concerned about Vietnam and Rhodesia (as was) than social policy (etc.) in part of the UK.

In 1967, Northern Ireland was just starting to unravel. Paul Rose was one of few who were concerned or even noticed. This was five years before Bloody Sunday, for instance. Rhodesia's UDI (unilateral declaration of independence from Britain) had been a year or so earlier, and we all know about Vietnam.

The Americans were pressuring us to send troops to Vietnam (like South Korea, Australia and NZ) but Wilson refused. It was a big issue at the time. As was the White Supremacist regime in Rhodesia with its UDI.

PJH said:

Heathener said:

Cicero said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.

I am not a spread bettor, the downside is too much for me. I had a spread markets one once but traded out and slept better. One concern is on liquidity.

So, take the LD spread. Its very unlikely that LDs will go below 10, and 15 would be a realistic minimum, so the maximum win is 22 times the stake. On the other side a 1997 style result could lose a similar sum. A Blue Wall blowout with collapsing Tory vote and LDs having a good election could conceivably reach 100 seats. Unlikely but possible. That would be 60 times the stake. The risks are just too asymmetrical for me.

The Tories have given up. Hearing astonishing things in places like Surrey. Feels like this could be an election where the old rules get junked.

Interesting. Surrey is definitely one to watch. Could be some major scalps with the blue county turning yellow.

And if you are right, this will be a seismic event. Assuming I have counted up correctly, since 1918 a total of 236 constituency elections have taken place in the current boundaries of Surrey and the Tories won 235 of them, the sole exception being the LD win in Guildford in 2001.

(If you go back further to 1885, there were 3 Liberal wins in 1906. And that's it.)

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

viewcode said:

Leon said:

JUST PASSED ROBERT PESTON ON PARKWAY

Also

PEOPLE ARE WEARING MASKS AGAIN FFS

WHICH PARKWAY? THERE ARE SEVERAL. A PARKWAY STATION IS A STATION CONSTRUCTED OUT OF THE WAY SO CARS CAN DRIVE TO IT FROM TOWN INSTEAD OF DRIVING INTO TOWN AND HENCE AVOIDING CONGESTION.

THERE. IS. ONLY. ONE. PARKWAY

https://press.disney.co.uk/news/executive-producer-dua-lipa-reveals-trailer-for-disney+-original-series-camden-premiering-may-29-on-disney+

I DON'T UNDERSTAND. I CAN THINK OF SEVERAL. BRISTOL PARKWAY? HORWICH PARKWAY? ALFRETON AND MANSFIELD PARKWAY? [Not sure that one still exists.]. WHICH PARKWAY? AND WHAT IS THE RELEVANCE OF THE LINK?

It's a forthcoming Disney documentary about Camden Town, Which is the location of THE ONLY PARKWAY WORTH TALKING ABOUT

Except maybe Bodmin Parkway, as it is so weird and remote

rottenborough said:

Wow.

Just kaboom.


The Labour Party
@UKLabour

14 years.

https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1793733483715543433

Lennon said:

Cicero said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.

I am not a spread bettor, the downside is too much for me. I had a spread markets one once but traded out and slept better. One concern is on liquidity.

So, take the LD spread. Its very unlikely that LDs will go below 10, and 15 would be a realistic minimum, so the maximum win is 22 times the stake. On the other side a 1997 style result could lose a similar sum. A Blue Wall blowout with collapsing Tory vote and LDs having a good election could conceivably reach 100 seats. Unlikely but possible. That would be 60 times the stake. The risks are just too asymmetrical for me.

The Tories have given up. Hearing astonishing things in places like Surrey. Feels like this could be an election where the old rules get junked.

For as long as I can remember (which I admit isn't thaat long...) there has been 'informed talk' from the Lib Dems about winning a raft of seeming long-shots:

2005 - 'Anti Iraq War sentiment will win us loads of inner city labour seats' - Result - Net gain of 11 - so good, but not exactly matching the hype. (And 5 were lost to Tories/Boundary Changes)
2010 - 'Cleggasm and I agree with Nick - Lib Dems could win 100+ seats - genuine 3 party politics...' - Result - Net loss of 5 seats as all those extra votes were in all the wrong places.
2015 - 'We'll hold onto most of our seats - it's not nearly as bad as predicted' - Result - Loss of 49 seats and back into (large) taxi joke territory
2017 - 'Bollocks to Brexit - we'll take all the Remain constituencies from both parties... (epitomised by launching the campaign in Vauxhall!)' - Umm... well I suppose going from 8 to 12 seats is a 50% increase so good for the bar charts but...
2019 - 'Jo Swinson - shes the PM in waiting' - loses her own seat. Oops...

Now this could very well be the one that is different and the Libs are on to win a swathe of seats through the home counties... but I for one won't be holding my breath, and am looking at selling LD seats rather than buying them.

RochdalePioneers said:

Benpointer said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Told you Nuke

???

The darts dear boy

bigjohnowls said:

My Party has made some policy announcements today.
Green Party Policies.

• Renationalising our NHS
• £70bn Wealth Tax
• 500,000 Council Homes
• £16 per hour min wage
• Universal Basic Income
• Rent Controls
• Abolishing Tuition Fees
• Recognition of Palestine
• Free Secondary School Meals
• Axe Two-Child Cap

Top Party and most people won't have a clue what they stand for.

OldKingCole said:

Foxy said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

rcs1000 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

This may be a waste of my allotted image, but I was genuinely surprised at the mere idea that a YIMBY or NIMBY group should be expected to take a position on this issue.

The first question I ask anyone I don't know is always "So, what's your position on Gaza?".

If I do know them, it's different. Instead I say "I just want to check, your position on Gaza hasn't changed has it?"

Candidly, I can't imagine any other way to be.

Gaza isn't really about Gaza at all, which very few give a fuck about.

It's just social proof for Progressives.

"Why is a young man like you concerned about Northern Ireland? What about Vietnam? What about Rhodesia?" - Barbara Castle to Paul Rose MP, in 1967.

Of course, Northern Ireland is - errrr - in the United Kingdom. So being concerned about doesn't exactly sound like a stretch.

I think the take-home is that Castle was more concerned about Vietnam and Rhodesia (as was) than social policy (etc.) in part of the UK.

In 1967, Northern Ireland was just starting to unravel. Paul Rose was one of few who were concerned or even noticed. This was five years before Bloody Sunday, for instance. Rhodesia's UDI (unilateral declaration of independence from Britain) had been a year or so earlier, and we all know about Vietnam.

The Americans were pressuring us to send troops to Vietnam (like South Korea, Australia and NZ) but Wilson refused. It was a big issue at the time. As was the White Supremacist regime in Rhodesia with its UDI.

Vietnam and whether or not we got involved was a major issue around then.

bigjohnowls said:

My Party has made some policy announcements today.
Green Party Policies.

• Renationalising our NHS
• £70bn Wealth Tax
• 500,000 Council Homes
• £16 per hour min wage
• Universal Basic Income
• Rent Controls
• Abolishing Tuition Fees
• Recognition of Palestine
• Free Secondary School Meals
• Axe Two-Child Cap

Top Party and most people won't have a clue what they stand for.

Andy_JS said:

wooliedyed said:

GBNews sneaked out a poll from Goodwins mob, not sure of dates
Lab 47 (+1)
Con 20 =
Ref 12 (-2)
Ld 9 =
Green 8 =

34 19 lead on best PM

So the Con 19% poll can't be from Goodwin?

Cookie said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

viewcode said:

Leon said:

JUST PASSED ROBERT PESTON ON PARKWAY

Also

PEOPLE ARE WEARING MASKS AGAIN FFS

WHICH PARKWAY? THERE ARE SEVERAL. A PARKWAY STATION IS A STATION CONSTRUCTED OUT OF THE WAY SO CARS CAN DRIVE TO IT FROM TOWN INSTEAD OF DRIVING INTO TOWN AND HENCE AVOIDING CONGESTION.

THERE. IS. ONLY. ONE. PARKWAY

https://press.disney.co.uk/news/executive-producer-dua-lipa-reveals-trailer-for-disney+-original-series-camden-premiering-may-29-on-disney+

I DON'T UNDERSTAND. I CAN THINK OF SEVERAL. BRISTOL PARKWAY? HORWICH PARKWAY? ALFRETON AND MANSFIELD PARKWAY? [Not sure that one still exists.]. WHICH PARKWAY? AND WHAT IS THE RELEVANCE OF THE LINK?

It's a forthcoming Disney documentary about Camden Town, Which is the location of THE ONLY PARKWAY WORTH TALKING ABOUT

Except maybe Bodmin Parkway, as it is so weird and remote

I'd forgotten about Bodmin. I picked an in-law up from there once. I forget now which one.
In fact,, come to think of it, I have been to parkways Bodmin, Horwich, Luton Airport AND and Bristol. FOUR PARKWAYS. Can any pb-er beat that?

Farooq said:

MoonRabbit said:

Cookie said:

FPT:

Casino_Royale said:

I'm already shitting myself about the 10pm SJC exit poll.

Anyone else feel the same?

Not this time. Glumly resigned.

I was fucking terrified last time though. The only news medium I could bring myself to watch was the £:$ exchange rates. If it failed to plummet, we were in the clear.

I don't think I have ever felt so relieved in my life as when Labour failed to win the 2019 GE.

They'll clearly win the 2024 one. And it will be shit. But nothing like as shit as them winning in 2019 would have been. And the obviously entirely hypothetical situation of a Conservative win would be not much to cheer.

It’s still horrible to see a spread market come up saying 150 seats though?

That’s losing 200 MPs! And 1906 was reduced to 156, so on the cusp as that record.

200 sounds big, but it's 200 Conservative MPs. It's like Palestinians in the eyes of Hamas negotiators: they only count for about 1/10th of the nominal value. Think of it as 20 actual people and 180 sticky-fingered Eton-chav shitheads.

Scott_xP said:

@robfordmancs

Making the bet was already an unforced error (two very rich men joking about £1k as if it is pocket change). Sunak has managed to compound it, on day 1 of an election campaign.

bigjohnowls said:

My Party has made some policy announcements today.
Green Party Policies.

• Renationalising our NHS
• £70bn Wealth Tax
• 500,000 Council Homes
• £16 per hour min wage
• Universal Basic Income
• Rent Controls
• Abolishing Tuition Fees
• Recognition of Palestine
• Free Secondary School Meals
• Axe Two-Child Cap

Top Party and most people won't have a clue what they stand for.

Foxy said:

Scott_xP said:

Roger said:

.....More bad news for Rishi. I understand Labour are using the ultra imaginitive ad agency 'Lucky Generals' to handle their campaign. Unless they are tethered by a wary SKS brace yourselves for some very funny hard hitting ads.

starting here

https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1793733483715543433

Not bad and catches the depressed zeitgeist of a nation that is skint.

Next one needs a bit more hopey-changey optimism though.

megasaur said:

bigjohnowls said:

My Party has made some policy announcements today.
Green Party Policies.

• Renationalising our NHS
• £70bn Wealth Tax
• 500,000 Council Homes
• £16 per hour min wage
• Universal Basic Income
• Rent Controls
• Abolishing Tuition Fees
• Recognition of Palestine
• Free Secondary School Meals
• Axe Two-Child Cap

Top Party and most people won't have a clue what they stand for.

And nothing about whether only the laydeez can have, you know, things. Given the party's obsession with that issue that's the most cowardly and evasive manifesto in history

MoonRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.

They are getting 16% on election day.

Foxy said:

Lennon said:

Cicero said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.

I am not a spread bettor, the downside is too much for me. I had a spread markets one once but traded out and slept better. One concern is on liquidity.

So, take the LD spread. Its very unlikely that LDs will go below 10, and 15 would be a realistic minimum, so the maximum win is 22 times the stake. On the other side a 1997 style result could lose a similar sum. A Blue Wall blowout with collapsing Tory vote and LDs having a good election could conceivably reach 100 seats. Unlikely but possible. That would be 60 times the stake. The risks are just too asymmetrical for me.

The Tories have given up. Hearing astonishing things in places like Surrey. Feels like this could be an election where the old rules get junked.

For as long as I can remember (which I admit isn't thaat long...) there has been 'informed talk' from the Lib Dems about winning a raft of seeming long-shots:

2005 - 'Anti Iraq War sentiment will win us loads of inner city labour seats' - Result - Net gain of 11 - so good, but not exactly matching the hype. (And 5 were lost to Tories/Boundary Changes)
2010 - 'Cleggasm and I agree with Nick - Lib Dems could win 100+ seats - genuine 3 party politics...' - Result - Net loss of 5 seats as all those extra votes were in all the wrong places.
2015 - 'We'll hold onto most of our seats - it's not nearly as bad as predicted' - Result - Loss of 49 seats and back into (large) taxi joke territory
2017 - 'Bollocks to Brexit - we'll take all the Remain constituencies from both parties... (epitomised by launching the campaign in Vauxhall!)' - Umm... well I suppose going from 8 to 12 seats is a 50% increase so good for the bar charts but...
2019 - 'Jo Swinson - shes the PM in waiting' - loses her own seat. Oops...

Now this could very well be the one that is different and the Libs are on to win a swathe of seats through the home counties... but I for one won't be holding my breath, and am looking at selling LD seats rather than buying them.

Yes but this election is like 1997 only with duller leaders and less optimism. LD went from 18 to 46 in that one.

Cookie said:

MoonRabbit said:

Cookie said:

FPT:

Casino_Royale said:

I'm already shitting myself about the 10pm SJC exit poll.

Anyone else feel the same?

Not this time. Glumly resigned.

I was fucking terrified last time though. The only news medium I could bring myself to watch was the £:$ exchange rates. If it failed to plummet, we were in the clear.

I don't think I have ever felt so relieved in my life as when Labour failed to win the 2019 GE.

They'll clearly win the 2024 one. And it will be shit. But nothing like as shit as them winning in 2019 would have been. And the obviously entirely hypothetical situation of a Conservative win would be not much to cheer.

It’s still horrible to see a spread market come up saying 150 seats though?

That’s losing 200 MPs! And 1906 was reduced to 156, so on the cusp as that record.

I reckon well under that. Skybet has 100-150 as favourite, with 50-100 and 150-200 joint secind favourite.

Cookie said:

Cookie said:

Carnyx said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

viewcode said:

Leon said:

JUST PASSED ROBERT PESTON ON PARKWAY

Also

PEOPLE ARE WEARING MASKS AGAIN FFS

WHICH PARKWAY? THERE ARE SEVERAL. A PARKWAY STATION IS A STATION CONSTRUCTED OUT OF THE WAY SO CARS CAN DRIVE TO IT FROM TOWN INSTEAD OF DRIVING INTO TOWN AND HENCE AVOIDING CONGESTION.

THERE. IS. ONLY. ONE. PARKWAY

https://press.disney.co.uk/news/executive-producer-dua-lipa-reveals-trailer-for-disney+-original-series-camden-premiering-may-29-on-disney+

I DON'T UNDERSTAND. I CAN THINK OF SEVERAL. BRISTOL PARKWAY? HORWICH PARKWAY? ALFRETON AND MANSFIELD PARKWAY? [Not sure that one still exists.]. WHICH PARKWAY? AND WHAT IS THE RELEVANCE OF THE LINK?

It's a forthcoming Disney documentary about Camden Town, Which is the location of THE ONLY PARKWAY WORTH TALKING ABOUT

Except maybe Bodmin Parkway, as it is so weird and remote

I'd forgotten about Bodmin. I picked an in-law up from there once. I forget now which one.
In fact,, come to think of it, I have been to parkways Bodmin, Horwich, Luton Airport AND and Bristol. FOUR PARKWAYS. Can any pb-er beat that?

Rugby, Warwick, Worcestershire ... not that I have been to them, but those need to be added to the list.

Good, good, keep em coming...

'Worcestershire Parkway' is vague. Suggests near but not in Worcestershire.

Five! I've been to five! I can't believe I forgot Liverpool South Parkway.

Just found this handy list on Wikipedia. Though I only count stations which actually call themselves '...parkway'.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_parkway_railway_stations_in_Britain

Also while I was about it edited an article which erroneously called Half Man Half Biscuit a Liverpool band.

MoonRabbit said:

Cookie said:

MoonRabbit said:

Cookie said:

FPT:

Casino_Royale said:

I'm already shitting myself about the 10pm SJC exit poll.

Anyone else feel the same?

Not this time. Glumly resigned.

I was fucking terrified last time though. The only news medium I could bring myself to watch was the £:$ exchange rates. If it failed to plummet, we were in the clear.

I don't think I have ever felt so relieved in my life as when Labour failed to win the 2019 GE.

They'll clearly win the 2024 one. And it will be shit. But nothing like as shit as them winning in 2019 would have been. And the obviously entirely hypothetical situation of a Conservative win would be not much to cheer.

It’s still horrible to see a spread market come up saying 150 seats though?

That’s losing 200 MPs! And 1906 was reduced to 156, so on the cusp as that record.

I reckon well under that. Skybet has 100-150 as favourite, with 50-100 and 150-200 joint secind favourite.

Spread in header says 150-158 is all we get? My maths ain’t great but that’s well over 150 losses? 🥺 100 to 150 losses would only go down to 190 at worse? I’d take that. The polling coming out is horrendous.

rcs1000 said:

MoonRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.

They are getting 16% on election day.

I do agree that they will do better on election day than they are currently polling. My guess is that they'll be 12-14% rather than 9-12%. But I would be very surprised if they got as high as 16%.

Taz said:

turbotubbs said:

Taz said:

turbotubbs said:

kyf_100 said:

turbotubbs said:

kyf_100 said:

turbotubbs said:

viewcode said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Taz said:

bigjohnowls said:

wooliedyed said:

Taz said:

wooliedyed said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

wooliedyed said:

Savanta have 44% saying Rishis launch in the rain went badly and..... um 35% think it went well

See the public saw Rishi Sunak as the embodiment of the greatest Doctor ever, that's a win for Rishi.

Tenant is a fecking arse. Get him off the thread

That’s the Doctor.

He's not MY doctor. He's no Eccleston

i like them all

I thought Peter Capaldi was a bit disappointing though

Whittaker was terrible but that may be more down to the scripts.

Whittaker's gabbling made her speech hard for my foreign chums to follow, although her stories were poor, and the set-up where the lady doctor trailed around her "fam" was vaguely misogynist.

Tennant was the best actor to play the Doctor.

Trivia: Capaldi is the only Doctor to have won an Oscar (as producer, not actor).

And if RTD is so bloody clever, how come the credits misnamed the character as Doctor Who, and the titles show the Tardis careering around like the starship Enterprise? And why do they keep redesigning the daleks and Tardis? And breathe!

I know Tennant Ten is technically the best, but I still have a soft spot for Matt Smith (from The Eleventh Hour to The Angels Take Manhattan(, and Peter Capaldi (from The Magician's Apprentice to Twice Upon a Time).

Every decision taken during the Chibnall era was wrong. It's pointless pointing to a specific one, since it was just one large steaming pile of wrong. Jodie's interpretation was wrong. The redesigned Daleks were wrong. The fam were wrong. The CyberTimeLords were wrong. Flux was an enormous serialised wrong. The costume was wrong. The Sunny Delight Master was wrong. The Timeless Child made me cry with the wrongness. It was just rubbish from day one to day last.

I’ve liked this but really want to like it ten times over. I’ve been a fan of Dr Who since the 1970’s. I’ve always been desperate to watch new WHO on TV right until Chibnall took over. So sad to not enjoy something that is an intimate part of my life.

Dr Who peaked with The Happiness Patrol, a satire of late 80s Britain featuring an army of Margaret Thatcher stand-ins and an off-brand Bertie Bassett as the Big Bad.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0rEe8ultJ4

It's all been downhill from there.

I cannot agree. The gothic era of Baker (Pyramids of Mars, Brain of Morbius etc) was the peak for old who. And the new version has had some brilliant episodes (Blink, Silence in the Library).

Ah, Blink was the first one with the stone angel baddies, wasn't it? That scared me even as an adult.

Sylvester McCoy remains my favourite Doctor, though, even if he did get more than his fair share of bad scripts and ridiculously low rent productions. Clownish at first, but darker and more manipulative as the series went on.

The Cartmel master plan foreshadows the narrative arcs of modern Who. I think McCoy suffered from a lot of stuff.

Not only that it set the template for the Virgin New adventures when the show was cancelled and they started a series of original novels.

By the final McCoy series the show was really hitting its stride.

Some good stuff in there although I recently rewatched Ghost Light. I have always remembered this as being superb, but the rewatch left me a little less keen. Ferric is excellent. And of course the previous season finally had a Daleks not defeated by a staircase…

Yes, the Daleks must have taken on board the fourth Doctors jibe in Destiny 😀.

I’ve not seen any McCoy stuff for a while. But I do like Ghostlight. What made you less keen on it ?

Eabhal said:

Cookie said:

Cookie said:

Carnyx said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

viewcode said:

Leon said:

JUST PASSED ROBERT PESTON ON PARKWAY

Also

PEOPLE ARE WEARING MASKS AGAIN FFS

WHICH PARKWAY? THERE ARE SEVERAL. A PARKWAY STATION IS A STATION CONSTRUCTED OUT OF THE WAY SO CARS CAN DRIVE TO IT FROM TOWN INSTEAD OF DRIVING INTO TOWN AND HENCE AVOIDING CONGESTION.

THERE. IS. ONLY. ONE. PARKWAY

https://press.disney.co.uk/news/executive-producer-dua-lipa-reveals-trailer-for-disney+-original-series-camden-premiering-may-29-on-disney+

I DON'T UNDERSTAND. I CAN THINK OF SEVERAL. BRISTOL PARKWAY? HORWICH PARKWAY? ALFRETON AND MANSFIELD PARKWAY? [Not sure that one still exists.]. WHICH PARKWAY? AND WHAT IS THE RELEVANCE OF THE LINK?

It's a forthcoming Disney documentary about Camden Town, Which is the location of THE ONLY PARKWAY WORTH TALKING ABOUT

Except maybe Bodmin Parkway, as it is so weird and remote

I'd forgotten about Bodmin. I picked an in-law up from there once. I forget now which one.
In fact,, come to think of it, I have been to parkways Bodmin, Horwich, Luton Airport AND and Bristol. FOUR PARKWAYS. Can any pb-er beat that?

Rugby, Warwick, Worcestershire ... not that I have been to them, but those need to be added to the list.

Good, good, keep em coming...

'Worcestershire Parkway' is vague. Suggests near but not in Worcestershire.

Five! I've been to five! I can't believe I forgot Liverpool South Parkway.

Just found this handy list on Wikipedia. Though I only count stations which actually call themselves '...parkway'.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_parkway_railway_stations_in_Britain

Also while I was about it edited an article which erroneously called Half Man Half Biscuit a Liverpool band.

Yes, this is wrong for Edinburgh. Gateway would be classified as a parkway, while Park is the name of the business district, not a car park.

Quite a few rural stations in the north of Scotland would classify as parkways, being at least a miles walk from the village or town centre.