How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?
At least the Tories can't go any lower than 19%. Or maybe they can.
CON would be on 50 seats on that poll!
However there were polls showing similar LAB leads early in 1997 campaign.
This is a new era. I reckon the Tories are gonna get the blame for EVERYTHING that has gone wrong since 2019. Not just Brexit (which is deserved), not just immigration and small boats (MORE than deserved) but also Covid, Ukraine, Gaza, inflation, Cameron, the Coalition, Clegg, student fees, litter, bad weather, my nan, your divorce, the decline of Bake Off, Man City winning too many times, kicking out Boris, the state of the high street, the state of your wife's face, your recent parking fine, you name it, the voters are going to blame the Govt for EVERYTHING and they are going to give this hapless bunch of spineless posho chancers the biggest kicking we have seen in British electoral history, out of sheer spite, venom, revenge and anger
They should be thankful Farage bottled it, if he was in it, I reckon Reform could actually get more votes than the Tories. As it is I can EASILY say the Tories slipping under 100 seats
You forgot one. Liz Truss killed The Queen.
Indeed. The Queen. The fuckers KILLED THE QUEEN
I disagree with you on almost everything. OK everything, but I agree with you on this. This election is potentially unprecedented in its horror for the governing party, the anger and contempt for the Tories is off the dial
They have successfully alienated everyone apart from wealthy pensioners who love mass, unchecked immigration. This is a small cohort, to put it mildly. It's probably Roger
.....More bad news for Rishi. I understand Labour are using the ultra imaginitive ad agency 'Lucky Generals' to handle their campaign. Unless they are tethered by a wary SKS brace yourselves for some very funny hard hitting ads.
LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.
I am not a spread bettor, the downside is too much for me. I had a spread markets one once but traded out and slept better. One concern is on liquidity.
So, take the LD spread. Its very unlikely that LDs will go below 10, and 15 would be a realistic minimum, so the maximum win is 22 times the stake. On the other side a 1997 style result could lose a similar sum. A Blue Wall blowout with collapsing Tory vote and LDs having a good election could conceivably reach 100 seats. Unlikely but possible. That would be 60 times the stake. The risks are just too asymmetrical for me.
The Tories have given up. Hearing astonishing things in places like Surrey. Feels like this could be an election where the old rules get junked.
The Conservatives have somehow managed to piss off absolutely everyone to the point you're left wondering who their natural constituency is.
If you're an oldie, you probably don't like the way you can't get a GP appointment or a hip replacement without going private (or waiting til your leg falls off). Having to be bank of mum and dad for grown up kids in their 30s and 40s who are struggling. Money in savings accounts eroded by cost of living crisis, affecting less savvy pensioners too.
Young-ish? Housing costs, spiralling rents, can't afford kids, zero job stability, lost opportunities to leave due to Brexit, too. Student loans following RPI which has shafted some. Leasehold trap has shafted first time buyers.
Working age entering middle age? Insane childcare costs, wages failing to keep up with inflation, mortgage costs doubling. Plus huge numbers of middle class professionals getting laid off in the last year.
Everyone - country feels like it's falling apart, schools literally falling apart, sewage being dumped into rivers, cost of sticking the heating on or doing a weekly shop has doubled. Life's little luxuries like a pint and a meal out with friends becoming unaffordable for many now. And the Conservatives droning on and on about endless culture war crap like Rwanda, trans and bashing disabled people on benefits, when most people are just struggling to survive.
Will Labour be significantly better? Maybe not. But it feels hard for even the staunchest Conservative supporter to justify giving this lot another 5 years in government - they're out of ideas and need a long period in opposition to figure out why they've managed to alienate most demographics across the country.
This is absolutely it. They used to hang onto the most of the homeowners, the pensioners. They've fucked people of working age over.
Even the wealthier pensioners can now see the impact on their children/grandchildren, they can't get a GP appointment, they can't get their cataracts done.
Even my mum is willing to vote Labour at this stage - the only other time she did that? 1997.
🚨 NEW: Rishi Sunak is refusing to honour Piers Morgan’s £1000 charity bet as an asylum seeker was voluntarily sent to Rwanda
@jamesrbuk Also, this smacks of bad staff work – this was absolutely going to come up in this interview, and they surely gamed it out. How was a multimillionaire PM refusing to donate £1,000 to charity the best outcome they could find?
Moron: "I bet you a thousand pounds you don't get anybody on those planes [to Rwanda] before the election"
To be fair to Sunak (ewwww) the bet wasn't specific enough to exclude Sunak *paying* someone to get on a plane to Rwanda...
Making the bet was already an unforced error (two very rich men joking about £1k as if it is pocket change). Sunak has managed to compound it, on day 1 of an election campaign.
Should someone quietly tell Rishi that he doesn't need to throw the election, he's going to lose anyway?
How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?
At least the Tories can't go any lower than 19%. Or maybe they can.
CON would be on 50 seats on that poll!
However there were polls showing similar LAB leads early in 1997 campaign.
This is a new era. I reckon the Tories are gonna get the blame for EVERYTHING that has gone wrong since 2019. Not just Brexit (which is deserved), not just immigration and small boats (MORE than deserved) but also Covid, Ukraine, Gaza, inflation, Cameron, the Coalition, Clegg, student fees, litter, bad weather, my nan, your divorce, the decline of Bake Off, Man City winning too many times, kicking out Boris, the state of the high street, the state of your wife's face, your recent parking fine, you name it, the voters are going to blame the Govt for EVERYTHING and they are going to give this hapless bunch of spineless posho chancers the biggest kicking we have seen in British electoral history, out of sheer spite, venom, revenge and anger
They should be thankful Farage bottled it, if he was in it, I reckon Reform could actually get more votes than the Tories. As it is I can EASILY say the Tories slipping under 100 seats
You forgot one. Liz Truss killed The Queen.
Indeed. The Queen. The fuckers KILLED THE QUEEN
I disagree with you on almost everything. OK everything, but I agree with you on this. This election is potentially unprecedented in its horror for the governing party, the anger and contempt for the Tories is off the dial
They have successfully alienated everyone apart from wealthy pensioners who love mass, unchecked immigration. This is a small cohort, to put it mildly. It's probably Roger
- Campaign launch: main point of note I've heard several people joke about was Rishi in the rain
- Initial polling response this weekend and next week: do we see an initial shift as the date is set, or a continuation of the recent trend? Could shape the narrative
- Manifesto launch: when can we expect these? Does anyone read them?
- Debates: will we have any, how many and who with? Difficult one to determine as, other than the main two parties, you have SNP in clear third place in seats, Lib Dems likely to win seats but neck and neck with Reform in polling, and the Green party not that far behind. I expect we just see Labour Vs Tories.
What other key events am I missing?
“Manifesto launch: when can we expect these? Does anyone read them?”
They will be poured over by opponents. If Labours manifesto has Dementia Tax or a Welsh Government style Garden Tax, then bye bye poll lead.
🚨 NEW: Rishi Sunak is refusing to honour Piers Morgan’s £1000 charity bet as an asylum seeker was voluntarily sent to Rwanda
@jamesrbuk Also, this smacks of bad staff work – this was absolutely going to come up in this interview, and they surely gamed it out. How was a multimillionaire PM refusing to donate £1,000 to charity the best outcome they could find?
Moron: "I bet you a thousand pounds you don't get anybody on those planes [to Rwanda] before the election"
To be fair to Sunak (ewwww) the bet wasn't specific enough to exclude Sunak *paying* someone to get on a plane to Rwanda...
Beautiful timing for reminder to all PBers - check the small print.
Something I should really know but have never quite got my head around
Can someone explain the difference between Parliament being prorogued and dissolved?
Thanks!
Prorogation makes the end of the Parliamentary session and happens every year, so it's a kind of suspension. Dissolution marks the termination of that Parliament, meaning there are then no MPs. The election takes place and the MPs are summoned to Westminster and the new Parliament is opened by the King.
Incidentally, we inhabit a hell of a bubble. I have had a busy day, amongst both patients and staff.
No one has mentioned the GE or any politician, nor have I overheard anyone speaking of it.
Popped in to see my parents. Chatted with both (separately) for 30 mins each. Neither brought up the election. We always seem to forget this. PB is very unrepresentative of the general public.
- Campaign launch: main point of note I've heard several people joke about was Rishi in the rain
- Initial polling response this weekend and next week: do we see an initial shift as the date is set, or a continuation of the recent trend? Could shape the narrative
- Manifesto launch: when can we expect these? Does anyone read them?
- Debates: will we have any, how many and who with? Difficult one to determine as, other than the main two parties, you have SNP in clear third place in seats, Lib Dems likely to win seats but neck and neck with Reform in polling, and the Green party not that far behind. I expect we just see Labour Vs Tories.
What other key events am I missing?
“Manifesto launch: when can we expect these? Does anyone read them?”
They will be poured over by opponents. If Labours manifesto has Dementia Tax or a Welsh Government style Garden Tax, then bye bye poll lead.
But it won't. Labour has been as safe as an extraordinarily cautious thing under Starmer.
LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.
I am not a spread bettor, the downside is too much for me. I had a spread markets one once but traded out and slept better. One concern is on liquidity.
So, take the LD spread. Its very unlikely that LDs will go below 10, and 15 would be a realistic minimum, so the maximum win is 22 times the stake. On the other side a 1997 style result could lose a similar sum. A Blue Wall blowout with collapsing Tory vote and LDs having a good election could conceivably reach 100 seats. Unlikely but possible. That would be 60 times the stake. The risks are just too asymmetrical for me.
The Tories have given up. Hearing astonishing things in places like Surrey. Feels like this could be an election where the old rules get junked.
Interesting. Surrey is definitely one to watch. Could be some major scalps with the blue county turning yellow.
And if you are right, this will be a seismic event. Assuming I have counted up correctly, since 1918 a total of 236 constituency elections have taken place in the current boundaries of Surrey and the Tories won 235 of them, the sole exception being the LD win in Guildford in 2001.
(If you go back further to 1885, there were 3 Liberal wins in 1906. And that's it.)
The biggest political misjudgement I've made recently has been thinking that Sturgeon & Salmond were despotic control freaks, what with their no dissent line. Turns out that a large part of the reason they were as they were is that the rest of their party were idiots or clinically diagnosable. Remarkable self-immolation today.
Anyway I'm 3 years into my career living in London so nowhere near rich enough for the spreads - but overs on LDs and Lab looks value. LDs going to end up with the better part of 10 from Surrey and Oxfordshire alone. Sunak 10x more likely to blow up than Starmer in the campaign.
.....More bad news for Rishi. I understand Labour are using the ultra imaginitive ad agency 'Lucky Generals' to handle their campaign. Unless they are tethered by a wary SKS brace yourselves for some very funny hard hitting ads.
- Campaign launch: main point of note I've heard several people joke about was Rishi in the rain
- Initial polling response this weekend and next week: do we see an initial shift as the date is set, or a continuation of the recent trend? Could shape the narrative
- Manifesto launch: when can we expect these? Does anyone read them?
- Debates: will we have any, how many and who with? Difficult one to determine as, other than the main two parties, you have SNP in clear third place in seats, Lib Dems likely to win seats but neck and neck with Reform in polling, and the Green party not that far behind. I expect we just see Labour Vs Tories.
What other key events am I missing?
“Manifesto launch: when can we expect these? Does anyone read them?”
They will be poured over by opponents. If Labours manifesto has Dementia Tax or a Welsh Government style Garden Tax, then bye bye poll lead.
But it won't. Labour has been as safe as an extraordinarily cautious thing under Starmer.
I look forward to the manifestos though I doubt more than 1% of the population ever read them.
So, battleground monitoring with constituency visits:
Tory defence: Erewash - falls to 10.8% Vale of Glamorgan - falls to 3%
Labour attack: Gillingham & Rainham: need 16.4% swing (pre announcement) Thurrock: need 12.5% swing
Sort of as I'd expect, Labour focused in the south east and campaigning further into Tory territory than the Tories would like to defend. I think Labour's SE emphasis will be quite marked.
I'd expect the Tory depth of defence to vary quite a bit by region and defending shallow in Wales and deeper in the Midlands does figure.
The port for the Highlands visit I have down as in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is an odd one being Lib held, but I'm considering it a themed visit rather than a constituency call. But I'm not sure where else he went.
Any more info on movements let me know and we can build a picture.
LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.
I am not a spread bettor, the downside is too much for me. I had a spread markets one once but traded out and slept better. One concern is on liquidity.
So, take the LD spread. Its very unlikely that LDs will go below 10, and 15 would be a realistic minimum, so the maximum win is 22 times the stake. On the other side a 1997 style result could lose a similar sum. A Blue Wall blowout with collapsing Tory vote and LDs having a good election could conceivably reach 100 seats. Unlikely but possible. That would be 60 times the stake. The risks are just too asymmetrical for me.
The Tories have given up. Hearing astonishing things in places like Surrey. Feels like this could be an election where the old rules get junked.
Interesting. Surrey is definitely one to watch. Could be some major scalps with the blue county turning yellow.
And if you are right, this will be a seismic event. Assuming I have counted up correctly, since 1918 a total of 236 constituency elections have taken place in the current boundaries of Surrey and the Tories won 235 of them, the sole exception being the LD win in Guildford in 2001.
(If you go back further to 1885, there were 3 Liberal wins in 1906. And that's it.)
Hexham is one constituency to watch. One Liberal for one year since 1885. Likely to go Labour I reckon.
Savanta have 44% saying Rishis launch in the rain went badly and..... um 35% think it went well
See the public saw Rishi Sunak as the embodiment of the greatest Doctor ever, that's a win for Rishi.
Tenant is a fecking arse. Get him off the thread
That’s the Doctor.
He's not MY doctor. He's no Eccleston
i like them all
I thought Peter Capaldi was a bit disappointing though
Whittaker was terrible but that may be more down to the scripts.
Whittaker's gabbling made her speech hard for my foreign chums to follow, although her stories were poor, and the set-up where the lady doctor trailed around her "fam" was vaguely misogynist.
Tennant was the best actor to play the Doctor.
Trivia: Capaldi is the only Doctor to have won an Oscar (as producer, not actor).
And if RTD is so bloody clever, how come the credits misnamed the character as Doctor Who, and the titles show the Tardis careering around like the starship Enterprise? And why do they keep redesigning the daleks and Tardis? And breathe!
I know Tennant Ten is technically the best, but I still have a soft spot for Matt Smith (from The Eleventh Hour to The Angels Take Manhattan(, and Peter Capaldi (from The Magician's Apprentice to Twice Upon a Time).
Every decision taken during the Chibnall era was wrong. It's pointless pointing to a specific one, since it was just one large steaming pile of wrong. Jodie's interpretation was wrong. The redesigned Daleks were wrong. The fam were wrong. The CyberTimeLords were wrong. Flux was an enormous serialised wrong. The costume was wrong. The Sunny Delight Master was wrong. The Timeless Child made me cry with the wrongness. It was just rubbish from day one to day last.
I’ve liked this but really want to like it ten times over. I’ve been a fan of Dr Who since the 1970’s. I’ve always been desperate to watch new WHO on TV right until Chibnall took over. So sad to not enjoy something that is an intimate part of my life.
Dr Who peaked with The Happiness Patrol, a satire of late 80s Britain featuring an army of Margaret Thatcher stand-ins and an off-brand Bertie Bassett as the Big Bad.
I cannot agree. The gothic era of Baker (Pyramids of Mars, Brain of Morbius etc) was the peak for old who. And the new version has had some brilliant episodes (Blink, Silence in the Library).
Ah, Blink was the first one with the stone angel baddies, wasn't it? That scared me even as an adult.
Sylvester McCoy remains my favourite Doctor, though, even if he did get more than his fair share of bad scripts and ridiculously low rent productions. Clownish at first, but darker and more manipulative as the series went on.
The Cartmel master plan foreshadows the narrative arcs of modern Who. I think McCoy suffered from a lot of stuff.
Not only that it set the template for the Virgin New adventures when the show was cancelled and they started a series of original novels.
By the final McCoy series the show was really hitting its stride.
Some good stuff in there although I recently rewatched Ghost Light. I have always remembered this as being superb, but the rewatch left me a little less keen. Ferric is excellent. And of course the previous season finally had a Daleks not defeated by a staircase…
LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.
I am not a spread bettor, the downside is too much for me. I had a spread markets one once but traded out and slept better. One concern is on liquidity.
So, take the LD spread. Its very unlikely that LDs will go below 10, and 15 would be a realistic minimum, so the maximum win is 22 times the stake. On the other side a 1997 style result could lose a similar sum. A Blue Wall blowout with collapsing Tory vote and LDs having a good election could conceivably reach 100 seats. Unlikely but possible. That would be 60 times the stake. The risks are just too asymmetrical for me.
The Tories have given up. Hearing astonishing things in places like Surrey. Feels like this could be an election where the old rules get junked.
For as long as I can remember (which I admit isn't thaat long...) there has been 'informed talk' from the Lib Dems about winning a raft of seeming long-shots:
2005 - 'Anti Iraq War sentiment will win us loads of inner city labour seats' - Result - Net gain of 11 - so good, but not exactly matching the hype. (And 5 were lost to Tories/Boundary Changes) 2010 - 'Cleggasm and I agree with Nick - Lib Dems could win 100+ seats - genuine 3 party politics...' - Result - Net loss of 5 seats as all those extra votes were in all the wrong places. 2015 - 'We'll hold onto most of our seats - it's not nearly as bad as predicted' - Result - Loss of 49 seats and back into (large) taxi joke territory 2017 - 'Bollocks to Brexit - we'll take all the Remain constituencies from both parties... (epitomised by launching the campaign in Vauxhall!)' - Umm... well I suppose going from 8 to 12 seats is a 50% increase so good for the bar charts but... 2019 - 'Jo Swinson - shes the PM in waiting' - loses her own seat. Oops...
Now this could very well be the one that is different and the Libs are on to win a swathe of seats through the home counties... but I for one won't be holding my breath, and am looking at selling LD seats rather than buying them.
This may be a waste of my allotted image, but I was genuinely surprised at the mere idea that a YIMBY or NIMBY group should be expected to take a position on this issue.
The first question I ask anyone I don't know is always "So, what's your position on Gaza?".
If I do know them, it's different. Instead I say "I just want to check, your position on Gaza hasn't changed has it?"
Candidly, I can't imagine any other way to be.
Gaza isn't really about Gaza at all, which very few give a fuck about.
It's just social proof for Progressives.
"Why is a young man like you concerned about Northern Ireland? What about Vietnam? What about Rhodesia?" - Barbara Castle to Paul Rose MP, in 1967.
Of course, Northern Ireland is - errrr - in the United Kingdom. So being concerned about doesn't exactly sound like a stretch.
I think the take-home is that Castle was more concerned about Vietnam and Rhodesia (as was) than social policy (etc.) in part of the UK.
In 1967, Northern Ireland was just starting to unravel. Paul Rose was one of few who were concerned or even noticed. This was five years before Bloody Sunday, for instance. Rhodesia's UDI (unilateral declaration of independence from Britain) had been a year or so earlier, and we all know about Vietnam.
The Americans were pressuring us to send troops to Vietnam (like South Korea, Australia and NZ) but Wilson refused. It was a big issue at the time. As was the White Supremacist regime in Rhodesia with its UDI.
I remember the Gerald Scarfe cartoon of Mr Wilson and Mr LB Johnson - must have been about something else?
Incidentally, we inhabit a hell of a bubble. I have had a busy day, amongst both patients and staff.
No one has mentioned the GE or any politician, nor have I overheard anyone speaking of it.
Mum thinks we're entering a six-week period of utter tedium
Yes, That may well be so.
People have spoken to me about football, staff recruitment, ill colleagues, holiday plans etc, but no one about politics.
Even I had to switch off the news. Same old, same old.
There are zero interesting policy features in the campaign, and also a nil score WRT charismatic character.
The interests are mathematical and predictive, gambling and guessing.
And waiting for mistakes, Black Swans etc.
This only excites anoraks, and this one is bored already.
BTW thanks to C4 News for a bit of coverage of the Sudan war. Lindsey Hilsum - a good thing - told us a bit about which countries are arming which side but then didn't explain why.
It's as bad as/worse than Gaza and on the whole no-one cares.
The biggest political misjudgement I've made recently has been thinking that Sturgeon & Salmond were despotic control freaks, what with their no dissent line. Turns out that a large part of the reason they were as they were is that the rest of their party were idiots or clinically diagnosable. Remarkable self-immolation today.
Anyway I'm 3 years into my career living in London so nowhere near rich enough for the spreads - but overs on LDs and Lab looks value. LDs going to end up with the better part of 10 from Surrey and Oxfordshire alone. Sunak 10x more likely to blow up than Starmer in the campaign.
It's not necesarily obvious - in the way it was screamingly so last time around - that a disillusioned Con voter would prefer LD over Lab.
Savanta have 44% saying Rishis launch in the rain went badly and..... um 35% think it went well
See the public saw Rishi Sunak as the embodiment of the greatest Doctor ever, that's a win for Rishi.
Tenant is a fecking arse. Get him off the thread
That’s the Doctor.
He's not MY doctor. He's no Eccleston
i like them all
I thought Peter Capaldi was a bit disappointing though
Whittaker was terrible but that may be more down to the scripts.
Whittaker's gabbling made her speech hard for my foreign chums to follow, although her stories were poor, and the set-up where the lady doctor trailed around her "fam" was vaguely misogynist.
Tennant was the best actor to play the Doctor.
Trivia: Capaldi is the only Doctor to have won an Oscar (as producer, not actor).
And if RTD is so bloody clever, how come the credits misnamed the character as Doctor Who, and the titles show the Tardis careering around like the starship Enterprise? And why do they keep redesigning the daleks and Tardis? And breathe!
I know Tennant Ten is technically the best, but I still have a soft spot for Matt Smith (from The Eleventh Hour to The Angels Take Manhattan(, and Peter Capaldi (from The Magician's Apprentice to Twice Upon a Time).
Every decision taken during the Chibnall era was wrong. It's pointless pointing to a specific one, since it was just one large steaming pile of wrong. Jodie's interpretation was wrong. The redesigned Daleks were wrong. The fam were wrong. The CyberTimeLords were wrong. Flux was an enormous serialised wrong. The costume was wrong. The Sunny Delight Master was wrong. The Timeless Child made me cry with the wrongness. It was just rubbish from day one to day last.
I’ve liked this but really want to like it ten times over. I’ve been a fan of Dr Who since the 1970’s. I’ve always been desperate to watch new WHO on TV right until Chibnall took over. So sad to not enjoy something that is an intimate part of my life.
Dr Who peaked with The Happiness Patrol, a satire of late 80s Britain featuring an army of Margaret Thatcher stand-ins and an off-brand Bertie Bassett as the Big Bad.
I cannot agree. The gothic era of Baker (Pyramids of Mars, Brain of Morbius etc) was the peak for old who. And the new version has had some brilliant episodes (Blink, Silence in the Library).
Ah, Blink was the first one with the stone angel baddies, wasn't it? That scared me even as an adult.
Sylvester McCoy remains my favourite Doctor, though, even if he did get more than his fair share of bad scripts and ridiculously low rent productions. Clownish at first, but darker and more manipulative as the series went on.
The Cartmel master plan foreshadows the narrative arcs of modern Who. I think McCoy suffered from a lot of stuff.
Not only that it set the template for the Virgin New adventures when the show was cancelled and they started a series of original novels.
By the final McCoy series the show was really hitting its stride.
Some good stuff in there although I recently rewatched Ghost Light. I have always remembered this as being superb, but the rewatch left me a little less keen. Ferric is excellent. And of course the previous season finally had a Daleks not defeated by a staircase…
Yes, the Daleks must have taken on board the fourth Doctors jibe in Destiny 😀.
I’ve not seen any McCoy stuff for a while. But I do like Ghostlight. What made you less keen on it ?
Rishi Sunak has accused Keir Starmer of not having the “courage” to face him in TV debates and discuss his plans
This from the guy who put 2 Tory plants in the audience for his first event and refused to take questions from real journalists
Does he realise Starmer was a QC? Sunak is like one of those little yappy dogs who overestimate their chances against Rottweilers.
A QC who by choice or not, didn't make it as an advocate
I don't know if you are a real QC (respect if so) but I don't think barrister skills, [cross] examining and making submissions etc, map particularly well onto debating.
How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?
At least the Tories can't go any lower than 19%. Or maybe they can.
CON would be on 50 seats on that poll!
However there were polls showing similar LAB leads early in 1997 campaign.
This is a new era. I reckon the Tories are gonna get the blame for EVERYTHING that has gone wrong since 2019. Not just Brexit (which is deserved), not just immigration and small boats (MORE than deserved) but also Covid, Ukraine, Gaza, inflation, Cameron, the Coalition, Clegg, student fees, litter, bad weather, my nan, your divorce, the decline of Bake Off, Man City winning too many times, kicking out Boris, the state of the high street, the state of your wife's face, your recent parking fine, you name it, the voters are going to blame the Govt for EVERYTHING and they are going to give this hapless bunch of spineless posho chancers the biggest kicking we have seen in British electoral history, out of sheer spite, venom, revenge and anger
They should be thankful Farage bottled it, if he was in it, I reckon Reform could actually get more votes than the Tories. As it is I can EASILY say the Tories slipping under 100 seats
You forgot one. Liz Truss killed The Queen.
Indeed. The Queen. The fuckers KILLED THE QUEEN
I disagree with you on almost everything. OK everything, but I agree with you on this. This election is potentially unprecedented in its horror for the governing party, the anger and contempt for the Tories is off the dial
They have successfully alienated everyone apart from wealthy pensioners who love mass, unchecked immigration. This is a small cohort, to put it mildly. It's probably Roger
.....More bad news for Rishi. I understand Labour are using the ultra imaginitive ad agency 'Lucky Generals' to handle their campaign. Unless they are tethered by a wary SKS brace yourselves for some very funny hard hitting ads.
Wow, this is as exciting as a ‘Led by Donkeys’ tweet.
"Don't you think it's time for a Labour government?"
No. No, I don't. Since you asked. I do not.
But it's time the Conservatives fucked off for a very long time. So it's a step in the right direction.
I'm not sure you can have the latter without the former tbh.
A coalition government is both preferable (to me) and within the realms of possibility. Don't get me wrong, I don't expect anything other than a Labour majority. The video asked the question, so I answered.
I'm already shitting myself about the 10pm SJC exit poll.
Anyone else feel the same?
Not this time. Glumly resigned.
I was fucking terrified last time though. The only news medium I could bring myself to watch was the £:$ exchange rates. If it failed to plummet, we were in the clear.
I don't think I have ever felt so relieved in my life as when Labour failed to win the 2019 GE.
They'll clearly win the 2024 one. And it will be shit. But nothing like as shit as them winning in 2019 would have been. And the obviously entirely hypothetical situation of a Conservative win would be not much to cheer.
It’s still horrible to see a spread market come up saying 150 seats though?
That’s losing 200 MPs! And 1906 was reduced to 156, so on the cusp as that record.
I reckon well under that. Skybet has 100-150 as favourite, with 50-100 and 150-200 joint secind favourite.
LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.
I am not a spread bettor, the downside is too much for me. I had a spread markets one once but traded out and slept better. One concern is on liquidity.
So, take the LD spread. Its very unlikely that LDs will go below 10, and 15 would be a realistic minimum, so the maximum win is 22 times the stake. On the other side a 1997 style result could lose a similar sum. A Blue Wall blowout with collapsing Tory vote and LDs having a good election could conceivably reach 100 seats. Unlikely but possible. That would be 60 times the stake. The risks are just too asymmetrical for me.
The Tories have given up. Hearing astonishing things in places like Surrey. Feels like this could be an election where the old rules get junked.
For as long as I can remember (which I admit isn't thaat long...) there has been 'informed talk' from the Lib Dems about winning a raft of seeming long-shots:
2005 - 'Anti Iraq War sentiment will win us loads of inner city labour seats' - Result - Net gain of 11 - so good, but not exactly matching the hype. (And 5 were lost to Tories/Boundary Changes) 2010 - 'Cleggasm and I agree with Nick - Lib Dems could win 100+ seats - genuine 3 party politics...' - Result - Net loss of 5 seats as all those extra votes were in all the wrong places. 2015 - 'We'll hold onto most of our seats - it's not nearly as bad as predicted' - Result - Loss of 49 seats and back into (large) taxi joke territory 2017 - 'Bollocks to Brexit - we'll take all the Remain constituencies from both parties... (epitomised by launching the campaign in Vauxhall!)' - Umm... well I suppose going from 8 to 12 seats is a 50% increase so good for the bar charts but... 2019 - 'Jo Swinson - shes the PM in waiting' - loses her own seat. Oops...
Now this could very well be the one that is different and the Libs are on to win a swathe of seats through the home counties... but I for one won't be holding my breath, and am looking at selling LD seats rather than buying them.
I'm the same, I reckon the first 10 or so targets are fairly nailed on unless something strange happens in the campaign, but after that it gets difficult quite quickly and without a complete Tory implosion even 30 would be a good result.
This may be a waste of my allotted image, but I was genuinely surprised at the mere idea that a YIMBY or NIMBY group should be expected to take a position on this issue.
The first question I ask anyone I don't know is always "So, what's your position on Gaza?".
If I do know them, it's different. Instead I say "I just want to check, your position on Gaza hasn't changed has it?"
Candidly, I can't imagine any other way to be.
Gaza isn't really about Gaza at all, which very few give a fuck about.
It's just social proof for Progressives.
"Why is a young man like you concerned about Northern Ireland? What about Vietnam? What about Rhodesia?" - Barbara Castle to Paul Rose MP, in 1967.
Of course, Northern Ireland is - errrr - in the United Kingdom. So being concerned about doesn't exactly sound like a stretch.
I think the take-home is that Castle was more concerned about Vietnam and Rhodesia (as was) than social policy (etc.) in part of the UK.
In 1967, Northern Ireland was just starting to unravel. Paul Rose was one of few who were concerned or even noticed. This was five years before Bloody Sunday, for instance. Rhodesia's UDI (unilateral declaration of independence from Britain) had been a year or so earlier, and we all know about Vietnam.
The Americans were pressuring us to send troops to Vietnam (like South Korea, Australia and NZ) but Wilson refused. It was a big issue at the time. As was the White Supremacist regime in Rhodesia with its UDI.
Vietnam and whether or not we got involved was a major issue around then.
- Campaign launch: main point of note I've heard several people joke about was Rishi in the rain
- Initial polling response this weekend and next week: do we see an initial shift as the date is set, or a continuation of the recent trend? Could shape the narrative
- Manifesto launch: when can we expect these? Does anyone read them?
- Debates: will we have any, how many and who with? Difficult one to determine as, other than the main two parties, you have SNP in clear third place in seats, Lib Dems likely to win seats but neck and neck with Reform in polling, and the Green party not that far behind. I expect we just see Labour Vs Tories.
What other key events am I missing?
“Manifesto launch: when can we expect these? Does anyone read them?”
They will be poured over by opponents. If Labours manifesto has Dementia Tax or a Welsh Government style Garden Tax, then bye bye poll lead.
But it won't. Labour has been as safe as an extraordinarily cautious thing under Starmer.
As safe as a Gay eunuch wearing a condom in a nunnery. Or something like that.
I'm already shitting myself about the 10pm SJC exit poll.
Anyone else feel the same?
Not this time. Glumly resigned.
I was fucking terrified last time though. The only news medium I could bring myself to watch was the £:$ exchange rates. If it failed to plummet, we were in the clear.
I don't think I have ever felt so relieved in my life as when Labour failed to win the 2019 GE.
They'll clearly win the 2024 one. And it will be shit. But nothing like as shit as them winning in 2019 would have been. And the obviously entirely hypothetical situation of a Conservative win would be not much to cheer.
It’s still horrible to see a spread market come up saying 150 seats though?
That’s losing 200 MPs! And 1906 was reduced to 156, so on the cusp as that record.
200 sounds big, but it's 200 Conservative MPs. It's like Palestinians in the eyes of Hamas negotiators: they only count for about 1/10th of the nominal value. Think of it as 20 actual people and 180 sticky-fingered Eton-chav shitheads.
LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.
I am not a spread bettor, the downside is too much for me. I had a spread markets one once but traded out and slept better. One concern is on liquidity.
So, take the LD spread. Its very unlikely that LDs will go below 10, and 15 would be a realistic minimum, so the maximum win is 22 times the stake. On the other side a 1997 style result could lose a similar sum. A Blue Wall blowout with collapsing Tory vote and LDs having a good election could conceivably reach 100 seats. Unlikely but possible. That would be 60 times the stake. The risks are just too asymmetrical for me.
The Tories have given up. Hearing astonishing things in places like Surrey. Feels like this could be an election where the old rules get junked.
Interesting. Surrey is definitely one to watch. Could be some major scalps with the blue county turning yellow.
And if you are right, this will be a seismic event. Assuming I have counted up correctly, since 1918 a total of 236 constituency elections have taken place in the current boundaries of Surrey and the Tories won 235 of them, the sole exception being the LD win in Guildford in 2001.
(If you go back further to 1885, there were 3 Liberal wins in 1906. And that's it.)
I expect just Guildford for LD in Surrey as I posted last night
WHICH PARKWAY? THERE ARE SEVERAL. A PARKWAY STATION IS A STATION CONSTRUCTED OUT OF THE WAY SO CARS CAN DRIVE TO IT FROM TOWN INSTEAD OF DRIVING INTO TOWN AND HENCE AVOIDING CONGESTION.
I DON'T UNDERSTAND. I CAN THINK OF SEVERAL. BRISTOL PARKWAY? HORWICH PARKWAY? ALFRETON AND MANSFIELD PARKWAY? [Not sure that one still exists.]. WHICH PARKWAY? AND WHAT IS THE RELEVANCE OF THE LINK?
It's a forthcoming Disney documentary about Camden Town, Which is the location of THE ONLY PARKWAY WORTH TALKING ABOUT
Except maybe Bodmin Parkway, as it is so weird and remote
I'd forgotten about Bodmin. I picked an in-law up from there once. I forget now which one. In fact,, come to think of it, I have been to parkways Bodmin, Horwich, Luton Airport AND and Bristol. FOUR PARKWAYS. Can any pb-er beat that?
I didn’t think much of that at all. The quick reeling off of the things not quite as good in comparison, Housing crisis, prices, feeling worse off, NHS, that bit was okay, but bit with the Tory leaders that followed didn’t work at all. The voice used as voice over didn’t work, just sounded like Channel 4 news.
.....More bad news for Rishi. I understand Labour are using the ultra imaginitive ad agency 'Lucky Generals' to handle their campaign. Unless they are tethered by a wary SKS brace yourselves for some very funny hard hitting ads.
LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.
I am not a spread bettor, the downside is too much for me. I had a spread markets one once but traded out and slept better. One concern is on liquidity.
So, take the LD spread. Its very unlikely that LDs will go below 10, and 15 would be a realistic minimum, so the maximum win is 22 times the stake. On the other side a 1997 style result could lose a similar sum. A Blue Wall blowout with collapsing Tory vote and LDs having a good election could conceivably reach 100 seats. Unlikely but possible. That would be 60 times the stake. The risks are just too asymmetrical for me.
The Tories have given up. Hearing astonishing things in places like Surrey. Feels like this could be an election where the old rules get junked.
For as long as I can remember (which I admit isn't thaat long...) there has been 'informed talk' from the Lib Dems about winning a raft of seeming long-shots:
2005 - 'Anti Iraq War sentiment will win us loads of inner city labour seats' - Result - Net gain of 11 - so good, but not exactly matching the hype. (And 5 were lost to Tories/Boundary Changes) 2010 - 'Cleggasm and I agree with Nick - Lib Dems could win 100+ seats - genuine 3 party politics...' - Result - Net loss of 5 seats as all those extra votes were in all the wrong places. 2015 - 'We'll hold onto most of our seats - it's not nearly as bad as predicted' - Result - Loss of 49 seats and back into (large) taxi joke territory 2017 - 'Bollocks to Brexit - we'll take all the Remain constituencies from both parties... (epitomised by launching the campaign in Vauxhall!)' - Umm... well I suppose going from 8 to 12 seats is a 50% increase so good for the bar charts but... 2019 - 'Jo Swinson - shes the PM in waiting' - loses her own seat. Oops...
Now this could very well be the one that is different and the Libs are on to win a swathe of seats through the home counties... but I for one won't be holding my breath, and am looking at selling LD seats rather than buying them.
Yes but this election is like 1997 only with duller leaders and less optimism. LD went from 18 to 46 in that one.
LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.
I am not a spread bettor, the downside is too much for me. I had a spread markets one once but traded out and slept better. One concern is on liquidity.
So, take the LD spread. Its very unlikely that LDs will go below 10, and 15 would be a realistic minimum, so the maximum win is 22 times the stake. On the other side a 1997 style result could lose a similar sum. A Blue Wall blowout with collapsing Tory vote and LDs having a good election could conceivably reach 100 seats. Unlikely but possible. That would be 60 times the stake. The risks are just too asymmetrical for me.
The Tories have given up. Hearing astonishing things in places like Surrey. Feels like this could be an election where the old rules get junked.
For as long as I can remember (which I admit isn't thaat long...) there has been 'informed talk' from the Lib Dems about winning a raft of seeming long-shots:
2005 - 'Anti Iraq War sentiment will win us loads of inner city labour seats' - Result - Net gain of 11 - so good, but not exactly matching the hype. (And 5 were lost to Tories/Boundary Changes) 2010 - 'Cleggasm and I agree with Nick - Lib Dems could win 100+ seats - genuine 3 party politics...' - Result - Net loss of 5 seats as all those extra votes were in all the wrong places. 2015 - 'We'll hold onto most of our seats - it's not nearly as bad as predicted' - Result - Loss of 49 seats and back into (large) taxi joke territory 2017 - 'Bollocks to Brexit - we'll take all the Remain constituencies from both parties... (epitomised by launching the campaign in Vauxhall!)' - Umm... well I suppose going from 8 to 12 seats is a 50% increase so good for the bar charts but... 2019 - 'Jo Swinson - shes the PM in waiting' - loses her own seat. Oops...
Now this could very well be the one that is different and the Libs are on to win a swathe of seats through the home counties... but I for one won't be holding my breath, and am looking at selling LD seats rather than buying them.
Yes but this election is like 1997 only with duller leaders and less optimism. LD went from 18 to 46 in that one.
Good point. LDs only do well when leaders of Lab and Con are unthreatening.
This may be a waste of my allotted image, but I was genuinely surprised at the mere idea that a YIMBY or NIMBY group should be expected to take a position on this issue.
The first question I ask anyone I don't know is always "So, what's your position on Gaza?".
If I do know them, it's different. Instead I say "I just want to check, your position on Gaza hasn't changed has it?"
Candidly, I can't imagine any other way to be.
Gaza isn't really about Gaza at all, which very few give a fuck about.
It's just social proof for Progressives.
"Why is a young man like you concerned about Northern Ireland? What about Vietnam? What about Rhodesia?" - Barbara Castle to Paul Rose MP, in 1967.
Of course, Northern Ireland is - errrr - in the United Kingdom. So being concerned about doesn't exactly sound like a stretch.
I think the take-home is that Castle was more concerned about Vietnam and Rhodesia (as was) than social policy (etc.) in part of the UK.
In 1967, Northern Ireland was just starting to unravel. Paul Rose was one of few who were concerned or even noticed. This was five years before Bloody Sunday, for instance. Rhodesia's UDI (unilateral declaration of independence from Britain) had been a year or so earlier, and we all know about Vietnam.
The Americans were pressuring us to send troops to Vietnam (like South Korea, Australia and NZ) but Wilson refused. It was a big issue at the time. As was the White Supremacist regime in Rhodesia with its UDI.
Vietnam and whether or not we got involved was a major issue around then.
It was. One wonders how many of the current PBers, had they been there at the time, would have been bouncing up and down demanding that the UK send Vulcans to fly out of Nakom Phanom, and so on and so forth.
Though I can't recall what was behind this cartoon - Wilson having been resistant to sending forces to Nam, so it couldn't be that.
I didn’t think much of that at all. The quick reeling off of the things not quite as good in comparison, Housing crisis, prices, feeling worse off, NHS, that bit was okay, but bit with the Tory leaders that followed didn’t work at all. The voice used as voice over didn’t work, just sounded like Channel 4 news.
Not very good overall imo
It's shit. No wonder @Scott_xP likes it. I don't like to be personal but @Scott_xP is the stupidest, dumbest, most boringly predictable commenter on PB. The weird thing is, I have a vague memory of him being vaguely interesting pre-Brexit. Quite strange, and now he's turned into Steve Bray without the interesting hats and amplifiers. ZZZZZZ
WHICH PARKWAY? THERE ARE SEVERAL. A PARKWAY STATION IS A STATION CONSTRUCTED OUT OF THE WAY SO CARS CAN DRIVE TO IT FROM TOWN INSTEAD OF DRIVING INTO TOWN AND HENCE AVOIDING CONGESTION.
I DON'T UNDERSTAND. I CAN THINK OF SEVERAL. BRISTOL PARKWAY? HORWICH PARKWAY? ALFRETON AND MANSFIELD PARKWAY? [Not sure that one still exists.]. WHICH PARKWAY? AND WHAT IS THE RELEVANCE OF THE LINK?
It's a forthcoming Disney documentary about Camden Town, Which is the location of THE ONLY PARKWAY WORTH TALKING ABOUT
Except maybe Bodmin Parkway, as it is so weird and remote
I'd forgotten about Bodmin. I picked an in-law up from there once. I forget now which one. In fact,, come to think of it, I have been to parkways Bodmin, Horwich, Luton Airport AND and Bristol. FOUR PARKWAYS. Can any pb-er beat that?
Rugby, Warwick, Worcestershire ... not that I have been to them, but those need to be added to the list.
.....More bad news for Rishi. I understand Labour are using the ultra imaginitive ad agency 'Lucky Generals' to handle their campaign. Unless they are tethered by a wary SKS brace yourselves for some very funny hard hitting ads.
I'm already shitting myself about the 10pm SJC exit poll.
Anyone else feel the same?
Not this time. Glumly resigned.
I was fucking terrified last time though. The only news medium I could bring myself to watch was the £:$ exchange rates. If it failed to plummet, we were in the clear.
I don't think I have ever felt so relieved in my life as when Labour failed to win the 2019 GE.
They'll clearly win the 2024 one. And it will be shit. But nothing like as shit as them winning in 2019 would have been. And the obviously entirely hypothetical situation of a Conservative win would be not much to cheer.
It’s still horrible to see a spread market come up saying 150 seats though?
That’s losing 200 MPs! And 1906 was reduced to 156, so on the cusp as that record.
200 sounds big, but it's 200 Conservative MPs. It's like Palestinians in the eyes of Hamas negotiators: they only count for about 1/10th of the nominal value. Think of it as 20 actual people and 180 sticky-fingered Eton-chav shitheads.
I can already detect you are beginning to mellow a bit, as the need for some sympathy for those on the losing end begins to seep in.
WHICH PARKWAY? THERE ARE SEVERAL. A PARKWAY STATION IS A STATION CONSTRUCTED OUT OF THE WAY SO CARS CAN DRIVE TO IT FROM TOWN INSTEAD OF DRIVING INTO TOWN AND HENCE AVOIDING CONGESTION.
I DON'T UNDERSTAND. I CAN THINK OF SEVERAL. BRISTOL PARKWAY? HORWICH PARKWAY? ALFRETON AND MANSFIELD PARKWAY? [Not sure that one still exists.]. WHICH PARKWAY? AND WHAT IS THE RELEVANCE OF THE LINK?
It's a forthcoming Disney documentary about Camden Town, Which is the location of THE ONLY PARKWAY WORTH TALKING ABOUT
Except maybe Bodmin Parkway, as it is so weird and remote
I'd forgotten about Bodmin. I picked an in-law up from there once. I forget now which one. In fact,, come to think of it, I have been to parkways Bodmin, Horwich, Luton Airport AND and Bristol. FOUR PARKWAYS. Can any pb-er beat that?
Rugby, Warwick, Worcestershire ... not that I have been to them, but those need to be added to the list.
Good, good, keep em coming...
'Worcestershire Parkway' is vague. Suggests near but not in Worcestershire.
Making the bet was already an unforced error (two very rich men joking about £1k as if it is pocket change). Sunak has managed to compound it, on day 1 of an election campaign.
(Tbf to anyone *good* at betting £1k should be pocket change for a bet where they're at as much of an advantage as Morgan was...)
My Party has made some policy announcements today. Green Party Policies.
• Renationalising our NHS • £70bn Wealth Tax • 500,000 Council Homes • £16 per hour min wage • Universal Basic Income • Rent Controls • Abolishing Tuition Fees • Recognition of Palestine • Free Secondary School Meals • Axe Two-Child Cap
Top Party and most people won't have a clue what they stand for.
And nothing about whether only the laydeez can have, you know, things. Given the party's obsession with that issue that's the most cowardly and evasive manifesto in history
I'm already shitting myself about the 10pm SJC exit poll.
Anyone else feel the same?
Not this time. Glumly resigned.
I was fucking terrified last time though. The only news medium I could bring myself to watch was the £:$ exchange rates. If it failed to plummet, we were in the clear.
I don't think I have ever felt so relieved in my life as when Labour failed to win the 2019 GE.
They'll clearly win the 2024 one. And it will be shit. But nothing like as shit as them winning in 2019 would have been. And the obviously entirely hypothetical situation of a Conservative win would be not much to cheer.
It’s still horrible to see a spread market come up saying 150 seats though?
That’s losing 200 MPs! And 1906 was reduced to 156, so on the cusp as that record.
I reckon well under that. Skybet has 100-150 as favourite, with 50-100 and 150-200 joint secind favourite.
Yeah, if I had to pluck a number out my Royal Cornish Arse right now I'd say the Tories end up with 129 MPs. Historically disastrous. If Farage had possessed the bollox to stand he could have driven them below 100, and probably below 50
.....More bad news for Rishi. I understand Labour are using the ultra imaginitive ad agency 'Lucky Generals' to handle their campaign. Unless they are tethered by a wary SKS brace yourselves for some very funny hard hitting ads.
Not bad and catches the depressed zeitgeist of a nation that is skint.
Next one needs a bit more hopey-changey optimism though.
The strategy ought to be hammer home how shit everything is for three to four weeks then gradually switch to two weeks of the bright sunlit uplands ahead under StarmerLabour.
My Party has made some policy announcements today. Green Party Policies.
• Renationalising our NHS • £70bn Wealth Tax • 500,000 Council Homes • £16 per hour min wage • Universal Basic Income • Rent Controls • Abolishing Tuition Fees • Recognition of Palestine • Free Secondary School Meals • Axe Two-Child Cap
Top Party and most people won't have a clue what they stand for.
And nothing about whether only the laydeez can have, you know, things. Given the party's obsession with that issue that's the most cowardly and evasive manifesto in history
Erm. Environment and climate change not even in their top ten policies based on that list?
Andrew Neil @afneil · 2h 113 current MPs have confirmed they will not stand for re-election on July 4th — of whom 70 are Tories. It’s an exodus.
Has Neill checked to see whether this number or percentage is any different to usual?
In 2010, the number was 149 MPs (100 Labour, 35 Conservatives, 7 Liberal Democrats, 2 Independents, 1 Independent Conservative and 1 member each from the SNP, Plaid Cymru, the DUP, and the SDLP)
Partly that people don't fancy the long road of opposition but also that each power had been in power for 13/14 years respectively and that is probably long enough for a lot of people to be an MP (I know some people go on for decades and decades
LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.
They are getting 16% on election day.
I do agree that they will do better on election day than they are currently polling. My guess is that they'll be 12-14% rather than 9-12%. But I would be very surprised if they got as high as 16%.
WHICH PARKWAY? THERE ARE SEVERAL. A PARKWAY STATION IS A STATION CONSTRUCTED OUT OF THE WAY SO CARS CAN DRIVE TO IT FROM TOWN INSTEAD OF DRIVING INTO TOWN AND HENCE AVOIDING CONGESTION.
I DON'T UNDERSTAND. I CAN THINK OF SEVERAL. BRISTOL PARKWAY? HORWICH PARKWAY? ALFRETON AND MANSFIELD PARKWAY? [Not sure that one still exists.]. WHICH PARKWAY? AND WHAT IS THE RELEVANCE OF THE LINK?
It's a forthcoming Disney documentary about Camden Town, Which is the location of THE ONLY PARKWAY WORTH TALKING ABOUT
Except maybe Bodmin Parkway, as it is so weird and remote
I'd forgotten about Bodmin. I picked an in-law up from there once. I forget now which one. In fact,, come to think of it, I have been to parkways Bodmin, Horwich, Luton Airport AND and Bristol. FOUR PARKWAYS. Can any pb-er beat that?
Rugby, Warwick, Worcestershire ... not that I have been to them, but those need to be added to the list.
Good, good, keep em coming...
'Worcestershire Parkway' is vague. Suggests near but not in Worcestershire.
Five! I've been to five! I can't believe I forgot Liverpool South Parkway.
Just found this handy list on Wikipedia. Though I only count stations which actually call themselves '...parkway'.
LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.
I am not a spread bettor, the downside is too much for me. I had a spread markets one once but traded out and slept better. One concern is on liquidity.
So, take the LD spread. Its very unlikely that LDs will go below 10, and 15 would be a realistic minimum, so the maximum win is 22 times the stake. On the other side a 1997 style result could lose a similar sum. A Blue Wall blowout with collapsing Tory vote and LDs having a good election could conceivably reach 100 seats. Unlikely but possible. That would be 60 times the stake. The risks are just too asymmetrical for me.
The Tories have given up. Hearing astonishing things in places like Surrey. Feels like this could be an election where the old rules get junked.
For as long as I can remember (which I admit isn't thaat long...) there has been 'informed talk' from the Lib Dems about winning a raft of seeming long-shots:
2005 - 'Anti Iraq War sentiment will win us loads of inner city labour seats' - Result - Net gain of 11 - so good, but not exactly matching the hype. (And 5 were lost to Tories/Boundary Changes) 2010 - 'Cleggasm and I agree with Nick - Lib Dems could win 100+ seats - genuine 3 party politics...' - Result - Net loss of 5 seats as all those extra votes were in all the wrong places. 2015 - 'We'll hold onto most of our seats - it's not nearly as bad as predicted' - Result - Loss of 49 seats and back into (large) taxi joke territory 2017 - 'Bollocks to Brexit - we'll take all the Remain constituencies from both parties... (epitomised by launching the campaign in Vauxhall!)' - Umm... well I suppose going from 8 to 12 seats is a 50% increase so good for the bar charts but... 2019 - 'Jo Swinson - shes the PM in waiting' - loses her own seat. Oops...
Now this could very well be the one that is different and the Libs are on to win a swathe of seats through the home counties... but I for one won't be holding my breath, and am looking at selling LD seats rather than buying them.
Yes but this election is like 1997 only with duller leaders and less optimism. LD went from 18 to 46 in that one.
In the 90's the LD's had consolidated the merger between Liberals and the SPD and had a charismatic leader in Paddy Ashdown. The 46 seats the got was a disappointment for them and they had hoped for a hung parliament. Since 2015 they have had a been stuggling to get any media presence and have had some very mediocre leaders. I would be very surprised (but delighted) if they had such a good result this time compared to 1997.
My Party has made some policy announcements today. Green Party Policies.
• Renationalising our NHS • £70bn Wealth Tax • 500,000 Council Homes • £16 per hour min wage • Universal Basic Income • Rent Controls • Abolishing Tuition Fees • Recognition of Palestine • Free Secondary School Meals • Axe Two-Child Cap
Top Party and most people won't have a clue what they stand for.
And nothing about whether only the laydeez can have, you know, things. Given the party's obsession with that issue that's the most cowardly and evasive manifesto in history
Erm. Environment and climate change not even in their top ten policies based on that list?
Thats BJO's list, wait for the official manifesto to see.
Not so sure that I would be selling the SNP at 19 to be honest. They currently have 43 members but they also have 2 seats that they won where the MP defected to Alba who continue not to trouble the scorers. All other things being equal they would expect to win these back. That means that they would be effectively losing 26 seats. Not impossible, particularly if Swinney is daft enough to taint himself with Mathieson, but not exactly generous either.
I'm already shitting myself about the 10pm SJC exit poll.
Anyone else feel the same?
Not this time. Glumly resigned.
I was fucking terrified last time though. The only news medium I could bring myself to watch was the £:$ exchange rates. If it failed to plummet, we were in the clear.
I don't think I have ever felt so relieved in my life as when Labour failed to win the 2019 GE.
They'll clearly win the 2024 one. And it will be shit. But nothing like as shit as them winning in 2019 would have been. And the obviously entirely hypothetical situation of a Conservative win would be not much to cheer.
It’s still horrible to see a spread market come up saying 150 seats though?
That’s losing 200 MPs! And 1906 was reduced to 156, so on the cusp as that record.
I reckon well under that. Skybet has 100-150 as favourite, with 50-100 and 150-200 joint secind favourite.
Spread in header says 150-158 is all we get? My maths ain’t great but that’s well over 150 losses? 🥺 100 to 150 losses would only go down to 190 at worse? I’d take that. The polling coming out is horrendous.
WHICH PARKWAY? THERE ARE SEVERAL. A PARKWAY STATION IS A STATION CONSTRUCTED OUT OF THE WAY SO CARS CAN DRIVE TO IT FROM TOWN INSTEAD OF DRIVING INTO TOWN AND HENCE AVOIDING CONGESTION.
I DON'T UNDERSTAND. I CAN THINK OF SEVERAL. BRISTOL PARKWAY? HORWICH PARKWAY? ALFRETON AND MANSFIELD PARKWAY? [Not sure that one still exists.]. WHICH PARKWAY? AND WHAT IS THE RELEVANCE OF THE LINK?
It's a forthcoming Disney documentary about Camden Town, Which is the location of THE ONLY PARKWAY WORTH TALKING ABOUT
Except maybe Bodmin Parkway, as it is so weird and remote
I'd forgotten about Bodmin. I picked an in-law up from there once. I forget now which one. In fact,, come to think of it, I have been to parkways Bodmin, Horwich, Luton Airport AND and Bristol. FOUR PARKWAYS. Can any pb-er beat that?
Rugby, Warwick, Worcestershire ... not that I have been to them, but those need to be added to the list.
Good, good, keep em coming...
'Worcestershire Parkway' is vague. Suggests near but not in Worcestershire.
Didcot Parkway Southampton Airport Parkway Tiverton Parkway Liverpool South Parkway Oxford Parkway East Midlands Parkway Port Talbot Parkway Tame Bridge Parkway Warwick Parkway Haddenham & Thame Parkway Buckshaw Parkway Whittlesford Parkway Coleshill Parkway Sutton Parkway Stratford-upon-Avon Parkway Aylesbury Vale Parkway Ebbw Vale Parkway Thanet Parkway
WHICH PARKWAY? THERE ARE SEVERAL. A PARKWAY STATION IS A STATION CONSTRUCTED OUT OF THE WAY SO CARS CAN DRIVE TO IT FROM TOWN INSTEAD OF DRIVING INTO TOWN AND HENCE AVOIDING CONGESTION.
I DON'T UNDERSTAND. I CAN THINK OF SEVERAL. BRISTOL PARKWAY? HORWICH PARKWAY? ALFRETON AND MANSFIELD PARKWAY? [Not sure that one still exists.]. WHICH PARKWAY? AND WHAT IS THE RELEVANCE OF THE LINK?
It's a forthcoming Disney documentary about Camden Town, Which is the location of THE ONLY PARKWAY WORTH TALKING ABOUT
Except maybe Bodmin Parkway, as it is so weird and remote
I'd forgotten about Bodmin. I picked an in-law up from there once. I forget now which one. In fact,, come to think of it, I have been to parkways Bodmin, Horwich, Luton Airport AND and Bristol. FOUR PARKWAYS. Can any pb-er beat that?
Rugby, Warwick, Worcestershire ... not that I have been to them, but those need to be added to the list.
Good, good, keep em coming...
'Worcestershire Parkway' is vague. Suggests near but not in Worcestershire.
Five! I've been to five! I can't believe I forgot Liverpool South Parkway.
Just found this handy list on Wikipedia. Though I only count stations which actually call themselves '...parkway'.
.....More bad news for Rishi. I understand Labour are using the ultra imaginitive ad agency 'Lucky Generals' to handle their campaign. Unless they are tethered by a wary SKS brace yourselves for some very funny hard hitting ads.
Not bad and catches the depressed zeitgeist of a nation that is skint.
Next one needs a bit more hopey-changey optimism though.
Yeah, it's fine. It tickles the parts the public want tickled: Tories Out. If Labour really need to sell a particular vision to the public, I'm sure they'll come up with something, but for now, why not just stick with this? It's unambitious, but why rock the boat at this stage with these polling numbers? There's some people who think they're very clever but are really just entertainment junkies who want something to plug the sterile void within. Those people want something edgy and controversial. But we've had years of that nonsense actually in government. Time's up. Please leave the building quietly.
"A nine-year-old boy died from sepsis after doctors and nurses missed a "significant" GP note, an inquest heard.
Dylan Cope, from Newport was taken to the Grange Hospital in Cwmbran, Torfaen, on 6 December 2022 after his GP wrote “query appendicitis”, but this note was not read.
The senior doctor on shift that night said GP referrals were not being printed off and put into patients' notes because of how busy the department was.
The court also heard how Dylan’s father should have been directed to a 999 call handler, but was not due to a mistake."
The only saving grace here is that multiple independent failures were required for this awful outcome. But they happened. The whole thing is a bit more nuanced, and is worfh a read.
I'm already shitting myself about the 10pm SJC exit poll.
Anyone else feel the same?
Not this time. Glumly resigned.
I was fucking terrified last time though. The only news medium I could bring myself to watch was the £:$ exchange rates. If it failed to plummet, we were in the clear.
I don't think I have ever felt so relieved in my life as when Labour failed to win the 2019 GE.
They'll clearly win the 2024 one. And it will be shit. But nothing like as shit as them winning in 2019 would have been. And the obviously entirely hypothetical situation of a Conservative win would be not much to cheer.
It’s still horrible to see a spread market come up saying 150 seats though?
That’s losing 200 MPs! And 1906 was reduced to 156, so on the cusp as that record.
I reckon well under that. Skybet has 100-150 as favourite, with 50-100 and 150-200 joint secind favourite.
Spread in header says 150-158 is all we get? My maths ain’t great but that’s well over 150 losses? 🥺 100 to 150 losses would only go down to 190 at worse? I’d take that. The polling coming out is horrendous.
LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.
I am not a spread bettor, the downside is too much for me. I had a spread markets one once but traded out and slept better. One concern is on liquidity.
So, take the LD spread. Its very unlikely that LDs will go below 10, and 15 would be a realistic minimum, so the maximum win is 22 times the stake. On the other side a 1997 style result could lose a similar sum. A Blue Wall blowout with collapsing Tory vote and LDs having a good election could conceivably reach 100 seats. Unlikely but possible. That would be 60 times the stake. The risks are just too asymmetrical for me.
The Tories have given up. Hearing astonishing things in places like Surrey. Feels like this could be an election where the old rules get junked.
Interesting. Surrey is definitely one to watch. Could be some major scalps with the blue county turning yellow.
And if you are right, this will be a seismic event. Assuming I have counted up correctly, since 1918 a total of 236 constituency elections have taken place in the current boundaries of Surrey and the Tories won 235 of them, the sole exception being the LD win in Guildford in 2001.
(If you go back further to 1885, there were 3 Liberal wins in 1906. And that's it.)
I expect just Guildford for LD in Surrey as I posted last night
Probably also Esher and Walton - lots of demographic change over the last 20 years with many people moving across the border from LD-leaning Richmond and Kingston. But not quite a dead cert now Raab is standing down. He was quite unpopular locally (my brother is a constituent).
LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.
They are getting 16% on election day.
I do agree that they will do better on election day than they are currently polling. My guess is that they'll be 12-14% rather than 9-12%. But I would be very surprised if they got as high as 16%.
Difference between 14 and 16 isn’t much.
The libdems could get a higher PV than any opinion poll actually gives them. Why? My theory is as polling companies get told Labour or Green, as that is what voter actually want to do, or don’t know, but the tactical vote is Lib Dem on the day, I put this theory out there many years ago calling it the Dutch Salute - something Lib Dem’s get on Election count morning no one saw coming.
Not so sure that I would be selling the SNP at 19 to be honest. They currently have 43 members but they also have 2 seats that they won where the MP defected to Alba who continue not to trouble the scorers. All other things being equal they would expect to win these back. That means that they would be effectively losing 26 seats. Not impossible, particularly if Swinney is daft enough to taint himself with Mathieson, but not exactly generous either.
Both Alba seats will be easy Labour gain on current polling - Kirkcaldy and East Lothian
Comments
Even the wealthier pensioners can now see the impact on their children/grandchildren, they can't get a GP appointment, they can't get their cataracts done.
Even my mum is willing to vote Labour at this stage - the only other time she did that? 1997.
A full day at school without a single mention. Had actually forgotten all about it by the time I got home.
To be fair to Sunak (ewwww) the bet wasn't specific enough to exclude Sunak *paying* someone to get on a plane to Rwanda...
The over 65 Papist vote.
They will be poured over by opponents. If Labours manifesto has Dementia Tax or a Welsh Government style Garden Tax, then bye bye poll lead.
People have spoken to me about football, staff recruitment, ill colleagues, holiday plans etc, but no one about politics.
Even I had to switch off the news. Same old, same old.
https://x.com/officialpdc/status/1793742937630621912?s=61
What a talent. I remember the first televised one, John Lowe. They used to be so rare. Now they seem to happen regularly.
Focus on what matters - time for more of us to come out of the Rail Forums closet.
We always seem to forget this. PB is very unrepresentative of the general public.
Just kaboom.
The Labour Party
@UKLabour
14 years.
https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1793733483715543433
(Though that might be because it hadn't been announced, I guess.)
NEW
Rishi Sunak has accused Keir Starmer of not having the “courage” to face him in TV debates and discuss his plans
This from the guy who put 2 Tory plants in the audience for his first event and refused to take questions from real journalists
Labour has been as safe as an extraordinarily cautious thing under Starmer.
(If you go back further to 1885, there were 3 Liberal wins in 1906. And that's it.)
Anyway I'm 3 years into my career living in London so nowhere near rich enough for the spreads - but overs on LDs and Lab looks value. LDs going to end up with the better part of 10 from Surrey and Oxfordshire alone. Sunak 10x more likely to blow up than Starmer in the campaign.
https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1793733483715543433
Tory defence:
Erewash - falls to 10.8%
Vale of Glamorgan - falls to 3%
Labour attack:
Gillingham & Rainham: need 16.4% swing
(pre announcement)
Thurrock: need 12.5% swing
Sort of as I'd expect, Labour focused in the south east and campaigning further into Tory territory than the Tories would like to defend. I think Labour's SE emphasis will be quite marked.
I'd expect the Tory depth of defence to vary quite a bit by region and defending shallow in Wales and deeper in the Midlands does figure.
The port for the Highlands visit I have down as in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is an odd one being Lib held, but I'm considering it a themed visit rather than a constituency call. But I'm not sure where else he went.
Any more info on movements let me know and we can build a picture.
One Liberal for one year since 1885.
Likely to go Labour I reckon.
2005 - 'Anti Iraq War sentiment will win us loads of inner city labour seats' - Result - Net gain of 11 - so good, but not exactly matching the hype. (And 5 were lost to Tories/Boundary Changes)
2010 - 'Cleggasm and I agree with Nick - Lib Dems could win 100+ seats - genuine 3 party politics...' - Result - Net loss of 5 seats as all those extra votes were in all the wrong places.
2015 - 'We'll hold onto most of our seats - it's not nearly as bad as predicted' - Result - Loss of 49 seats and back into (large) taxi joke territory
2017 - 'Bollocks to Brexit - we'll take all the Remain constituencies from both parties... (epitomised by launching the campaign in Vauxhall!)' - Umm... well I suppose going from 8 to 12 seats is a 50% increase so good for the bar charts but...
2019 - 'Jo Swinson - shes the PM in waiting' - loses her own seat. Oops...
Now this could very well be the one that is different and the Libs are on to win a swathe of seats through the home counties... but I for one won't be holding my breath, and am looking at selling LD seats rather than buying them.
That Rishi wants six of the things just shows how far behind he is.
No. No, I don't. Since you asked. I do not.
But it's time the Conservatives fucked off for a very long time. So it's a step in the right direction.
Andrew Neil
@afneil
·
2h
113 current MPs have confirmed they will not stand for re-election on July 4th — of whom 70 are Tories. It’s an exodus.
The interests are mathematical and predictive, gambling and guessing.
And waiting for mistakes, Black Swans etc.
This only excites anoraks, and this one is bored already.
BTW thanks to C4 News for a bit of coverage of the Sudan war. Lindsey Hilsum - a good thing - told us a bit about which countries are arming which side but then didn't explain why.
It's as bad as/worse than Gaza and on the whole no-one cares.
I’ve not seen any McCoy stuff for a while. But I do like Ghostlight. What made you less keen on it ?
I don't know if you are a real QC (respect if so) but I don't think barrister skills, [cross] examining and making submissions etc, map particularly well onto debating.
Don't get me wrong, I don't expect anything other than a Labour majority. The video asked the question, so I answered.
Lab 47 (+1)
Con 20 =
Ref 12 (-2)
Ld 9 =
Green 8 =
34 19 lead on best PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0jj0e3ng2qo
Green Party Policies.
• Renationalising our NHS
• £70bn Wealth Tax
• 500,000 Council Homes
• £16 per hour min wage
• Universal Basic Income
• Rent Controls
• Abolishing Tuition Fees
• Recognition of Palestine
• Free Secondary School Meals
• Axe Two-Child Cap
Top Party and most people won't have a clue what they stand for.
In fact,, come to think of it, I have been to parkways Bodmin, Horwich, Luton Airport AND and Bristol. FOUR PARKWAYS. Can any pb-er beat that?
Not very good overall imo
That's like missing an open goal from 2 inches. Crap
Though I can't recall what was behind this cartoon - Wilson having been resistant to sending forces to Nam, so it couldn't be that.
https://geraldscarfe.com/product/private-eye-cover-wilson-right-behind-johnson/
Next one needs a bit more hopey-changey optimism though.
'Worcestershire Parkway' is vague. Suggests near but not in Worcestershire.
The only snatched bit of news many people get.
Partly that people don't fancy the long road of opposition but also that each power had been in power for 13/14 years respectively and that is probably long enough for a lot of people to be an MP (I know some people go on for decades and decades
Just found this handy list on Wikipedia. Though I only count stations which actually call themselves '...parkway'.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_parkway_railway_stations_in_Britain
Also while I was about it edited an article which erroneously called Half Man Half Biscuit a Liverpool band.
Southampton Airport Parkway
Tiverton Parkway
Liverpool South Parkway
Oxford Parkway
East Midlands Parkway
Port Talbot Parkway
Tame Bridge Parkway
Warwick Parkway
Haddenham & Thame Parkway
Buckshaw Parkway
Whittlesford Parkway
Coleshill Parkway
Sutton Parkway
Stratford-upon-Avon Parkway
Aylesbury Vale Parkway
Ebbw Vale Parkway
Thanet Parkway
Quite a few rural stations in the north of Scotland would classify as parkways, being at least a miles walk from the village or town centre.
If Labour really need to sell a particular vision to the public, I'm sure they'll come up with something, but for now, why not just stick with this? It's unambitious, but why rock the boat at this stage with these polling numbers?
There's some people who think they're very clever but are really just entertainment junkies who want something to plug the sterile void within. Those people want something edgy and controversial. But we've had years of that nonsense actually in government. Time's up. Please leave the building quietly.
Dylan Cope, from Newport was taken to the Grange Hospital in Cwmbran, Torfaen, on 6 December 2022 after his GP wrote “query appendicitis”, but this note was not read.
The senior doctor on shift that night said GP referrals were not being printed off and put into patients' notes because of how busy the department was.
The court also heard how Dylan’s father should have been directed to a 999 call handler, but was not due to a mistake."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7223p24qzjo
The only saving grace here is that multiple independent failures were required for this awful outcome. But they happened. The whole thing is a bit more nuanced, and is worfh a read.
The libdems could get a higher PV than any opinion poll actually gives them. Why? My theory is as polling companies get told Labour or Green, as that is what voter actually want to do, or don’t know, but the tactical vote is Lib Dem on the day, I put this theory out there many years ago calling it the Dutch Salute - something Lib Dem’s get on Election count morning no one saw coming.