Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

The spreads are open – politicalbetting.com

135678

Comments

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,321
    edited May 23

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    This may be a waste of my allotted image, but I was genuinely surprised at the mere idea that a YIMBY or NIMBY group should be expected to take a position on this issue.

    The first question I ask anyone I don't know is always "So, what's your position on Gaza?".

    If I do know them, it's different. Instead I say "I just want to check, your position on Gaza hasn't changed has it?"

    Candidly, I can't imagine any other way to be.
    Gaza isn't really about Gaza at all, which very few give a fuck about.

    It's just social proof for Progressives.
    "Why is a young man like you concerned about Northern Ireland? What about Vietnam? What about Rhodesia?" - Barbara Castle to Paul Rose MP, in 1967.
    In the example it wasn't an issue that someone had a view about Gaza, but that they were demanding other people have a view on it, despite having nothing whatsoever to do with it because they were interested in domestic housing policy. That is quite different and you know that.

    It is when people not only have a view on something but elevate it to the most important thing and insert it into unrelated things. And as I noted that is something that happens with matters other than Gaza too.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,022
    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Savanta have 44% saying Rishis launch in the rain went badly and..... um 35% think it went well

    See the public saw Rishi Sunak as the embodiment of the greatest Doctor ever, that's a win for Rishi.


    Tenant is a fecking arse. Get him off the thread
    That’s the Doctor.
    He's not MY doctor. He's no Eccleston
    i like them all

    I thought Peter Capaldi was a bit disappointing though
    Whittaker was terrible but that may be more down to the scripts.
    Whittaker's gabbling made her speech hard for my foreign chums to follow, although her stories were poor, and the set-up where the lady doctor trailed around her "fam" was vaguely misogynist.

    Tennant was the best actor to play the Doctor.

    Trivia: Capaldi is the only Doctor to have won an Oscar (as producer, not actor).

    And if RTD is so bloody clever, how come the credits misnamed the character as Doctor Who, and the titles show the Tardis careering around like the starship Enterprise? And why do they keep redesigning the daleks and Tardis? And breathe!
    I know Tennant Ten is technically the best, but I still have a soft spot for Matt Smith (from The Eleventh Hour to The Angels Take Manhattan(, and Peter Capaldi (from The Magician's Apprentice to Twice Upon a Time).

    Every decision taken during the Chibnall era was wrong. It's pointless pointing to a specific one, since it was just one large steaming pile of wrong. Jodie's interpretation was wrong. The redesigned Daleks were wrong. The fam were wrong. The CyberTimeLords were wrong. Flux was an enormous serialised wrong. The costume was wrong. The Sunny Delight Master was wrong. The Timeless Child made me cry with the wrongness. It was just rubbish from day one to day last.

    I went to a screening of Twice Upon a Time in Durham. The Beeb gave people the opportunity to get tickets to see it in the run up to Xmas. It cut out at the regeneration scene. It was good fun.

  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,881
    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Savanta have 44% saying Rishis launch in the rain went badly and..... um 35% think it went well

    See the public saw Rishi Sunak as the embodiment of the greatest Doctor ever, that's a win for Rishi.


    Tenant is a fecking arse. Get him off the thread
    That’s the Doctor.
    He's not MY doctor. He's no Eccleston
    i like them all

    I thought Peter Capaldi was a bit disappointing though
    Whittaker was terrible but that may be more down to the scripts.
    Whittaker's gabbling made her speech hard for my foreign chums to follow, although her stories were poor, and the set-up where the lady doctor trailed around her "fam" was vaguely misogynist.

    Tennant was the best actor to play the Doctor.

    Trivia: Capaldi is the only Doctor to have won an Oscar (as producer, not actor).

    And if RTD is so bloody clever, how come the credits misnamed the character as Doctor Who, and the titles show the Tardis careering around like the starship Enterprise? And why do they keep redesigning the daleks and Tardis? And breathe!
    I know Tennant Ten is technically the best, but I still have a soft spot for Matt Smith (from The Eleventh Hour to The Angels Take Manhattan(, and Peter Capaldi (from The Magician's Apprentice to Twice Upon a Time).

    Every decision taken during the Chibnall era was wrong. It's pointless pointing to a specific one, since it was just one large steaming pile of wrong. Jodie's interpretation was wrong. The redesigned Daleks were wrong. The fam were wrong. The CyberTimeLords were wrong. Flux was an enormous serialised wrong. The costume was wrong. The Sunny Delight Master was wrong. The Timeless Child made me cry with the wrongness. It was just rubbish from day one to day last.

    I’ve liked this but really want to like it ten times over. I’ve been a fan of Dr Who since the 1970’s. I’ve always been desperate to watch new WHO on TV right until Chibnall took over. So sad to not enjoy something that is an intimate part of my life.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,201
    Taz said:

    My picture for Vanilla. Whitby Abbey in the fog, last Friday:


    Did you go on the NYMR steam train from Pickering?
    There’s a quality bar at the station serving craft beer. 👍
    Its a quality journey but i think i may have done my last trip as I cant justify the £49.50 when i have already done it half a dozen times
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,244
    edited May 23
    Congrats to England women on winning by 37 runs vs Pakistan.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/live/c2ll0z21zpqt
  • Options
    DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 264

    Taz said:

    My picture for Vanilla. Whitby Abbey in the fog, last Friday:


    Did you go on the NYMR steam train from Pickering?
    There’s a quality bar at the station serving craft beer. 👍
    Its a quality journey but i think i may have done my last trip as I cant justify the £49.50 when i have already done it half a dozen times
    The £49.50 should "do" you for an entire year
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,201
    Andy_JS said:

    Congrats to England women on winning by 37 runs vs Pakistan.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/live/c2ll0z21zpqt

    I am amazed it got so much play in 25 miles North would have had multiple stoppages in play
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,022

    Taz said:

    My picture for Vanilla. Whitby Abbey in the fog, last Friday:


    Did you go on the NYMR steam train from Pickering?
    There’s a quality bar at the station serving craft beer. 👍
    Its a quality journey but i think i may have done my last trip as I cant justify the £49.50 when i have already done it half a dozen times
    We drive and use the park and ride. It’s excellent.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,369
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    JUST PASSED ROBERT PESTON ON PARKWAY

    Also

    PEOPLE ARE WEARING MASKS AGAIN FFS

    WHICH PARKWAY? THERE ARE SEVERAL. A PARKWAY STATION IS A STATION CONSTRUCTED OUT OF THE WAY SO CARS CAN DRIVE TO IT FROM TOWN INSTEAD OF DRIVING INTO TOWN AND HENCE AVOIDING CONGESTION.
    Please don’t shout.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,307
    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    The funniest moment I’ve seen so far was ITV News asking someone what they thought of Rishi Sunak?

    Answer: ‘Who?’

    She needed about three prompts, including an explanation that he was the PM, before laughing and explaining that he hadn’t been Prime Minister long enough to know anything about him.

    This is what we are dealing with. This is also what the Conservatives are dealing with.

    Obviously she doesn't have a vote - but my 12 year old daughter was surprised (and a little disappointed) to find that Boris was no longer PM.

    When I was her age, I'm pretty confident I was better informed. But you picked up news by osmosis. There were only 4 TV channels, and news was a significant proportion of what was on. Even if you weren't seeking it out you would pick stuff up. Nowadays with non-linear TV if you don't go looking for news it's possible to remain surprisingly uninformed.
    Another factor is that even when young'uns (and old'uns) do look for news or information, modern search engines find exactly what is wanted, shorn of the background information that would be absorbed by reading a whole book, chapter or article, as people did in olden times. We can look up who is Leader of the Opposition without learning anything incidental about government or parliament or even who is the Prime Minister.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,053

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Savanta have 44% saying Rishis launch in the rain went badly and..... um 35% think it went well

    See the public saw Rishi Sunak as the embodiment of the greatest Doctor ever, that's a win for Rishi.


    Tenant is a fecking arse. Get him off the thread
    That’s the Doctor.
    He's not MY doctor. He's no Eccleston
    i like them all

    I thought Peter Capaldi was a bit disappointing though
    Whittaker was terrible but that may be more down to the scripts.
    Whittaker's gabbling made her speech hard for my foreign chums to follow, although her stories were poor, and the set-up where the lady doctor trailed around her "fam" was vaguely misogynist.

    Tennant was the best actor to play the Doctor.

    Trivia: Capaldi is the only Doctor to have won an Oscar (as producer, not actor).

    And if RTD is so bloody clever, how come the credits misnamed the character as Doctor Who, and the titles show the Tardis careering around like the starship Enterprise? And why do they keep redesigning the daleks and Tardis? And breathe!
    Whitaker’s years broke the cardinal rule - never, ever have more than two companions. The show is just 45 minutes now, not the extended, long drawn out productions of the 1960’s or even Davisons doctor. There is simply not enough time or things to do for so many characters.
    And in the end too many of the companions seem to turn into mini Doctors. That is not the role of the companion. They are there to represent the viewer.
    The several thousand year old all powerful old man whisking often attractive and usually 'complicated' teenage girls off into danger only he can save them from is pretty pukeworthy at times
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,201

    Taz said:

    My picture for Vanilla. Whitby Abbey in the fog, last Friday:


    Did you go on the NYMR steam train from Pickering?
    There’s a quality bar at the station serving craft beer. 👍
    Its a quality journey but i think i may have done my last trip as I cant justify the £49.50 when i have already done it half a dozen times
    The £49.50 should "do" you for an entire year
    An entire day unfortunately
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,371
    FF43 said:

    I want to congratulate the Rwandans who may have extracted one third of a billion £ from a desperate UK government and not have to host a single asylum seeker in return.

    Such government waste always makes people Mone.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,244
    Leon said:

    JUST PASSED ROBERT PESTON ON PARKWAY

    Also

    PEOPLE ARE WEARING MASKS AGAIN FFS

    Nobody's wearing masks at Derby cricket ground.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,849
    Carnyx said:

    My picture for Vanilla. Whitby Abbey in the fog, last Friday:


    Hmm, are we going to get more photos as everyone feels the need to use their quota now they have one?
    Use it or lose it, presumably!
    For a modest fee I am prepaed to sell my quota.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,683
    Carnyx said:

    My picture for Vanilla. Whitby Abbey in the fog, last Friday:


    Hmm, are we going to get more photos as everyone feels the need to use their quota now they have one?
    Use it or lose it, presumably!
    Does replying to posts with pics (and therefore reposting the pics) use up site capacity?
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,658

    Katherine Forster
    @forster_k
    ·
    34m
    Nigel Farage tells @tomhfh on @gbnews he was going to launch a campaign to stand as an MP next week. He reckons CCHQ got wind of it, hence the sudden calling of the GE.

    say what you like about Nigel Farage but if true he has managed to influence the date of a GE and force a referendum (and won it) on Brexit
    "if" doing a lot of work there.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,881

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Savanta have 44% saying Rishis launch in the rain went badly and..... um 35% think it went well

    See the public saw Rishi Sunak as the embodiment of the greatest Doctor ever, that's a win for Rishi.


    Tenant is a fecking arse. Get him off the thread
    That’s the Doctor.
    He's not MY doctor. He's no Eccleston
    i like them all

    I thought Peter Capaldi was a bit disappointing though
    Whittaker was terrible but that may be more down to the scripts.
    Whittaker's gabbling made her speech hard for my foreign chums to follow, although her stories were poor, and the set-up where the lady doctor trailed around her "fam" was vaguely misogynist.

    Tennant was the best actor to play the Doctor.

    Trivia: Capaldi is the only Doctor to have won an Oscar (as producer, not actor).

    And if RTD is so bloody clever, how come the credits misnamed the character as Doctor Who, and the titles show the Tardis careering around like the starship Enterprise? And why do they keep redesigning the daleks and Tardis? And breathe!
    Whitaker’s years broke the cardinal rule - never, ever have more than two companions. The show is just 45 minutes now, not the extended, long drawn out productions of the 1960’s or even Davisons doctor. There is simply not enough time or things to do for so many characters.
    And in the end too many of the companions seem to turn into mini Doctors. That is not the role of the companion. They are there to represent the viewer.
    The several thousand year old all powerful old man whisking often attractive and usually 'complicated' teenage girls off into danger only he can save them from is pretty pukeworthy at times
    In the good old days the hero was a man ( of course) and the companions were the eye candy for the dads. Not much has changed apart from making the women, as you say, complicated and thus identifiable for all the messed up youth out there.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,674
    Leon said:

    JUST PASSED ROBERT PESTON ON PARKWAY

    Also

    PEOPLE ARE WEARING MASKS AGAIN FFS

    I'd wear a mask around Peston. At the very least, it would discourage him from talking to me.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,164

    @Tomorrow'sMPs
    @tomorrowsmps

    🔵 Cons HQ have sent lust of 93 vacant seats open for applications: 1
    Daventry (East Midlands)
    · Leicester East (East Midlands)
    · Leicester South (East Midlands)
    · Leicester West (East Midlands)
    · Nottingham North and Kimberley (East Midlands)

    https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1793674917659205645

    Are people really that excited about becoming a Conservative MP in Leicester?
    Fair point. Are people ever excited to be in Leicester full stop?

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,415
    edited May 23
    From another PB.

    Party girl

    Getting blotto with LOTO


    The election has only just been called and already pundits and politicos are wondering who's most likely to take Rishi's place as Tory leader after the party's anticipated wipeout.

    One journo has been digging through old Cambridge year books and uncovered an interesting entry in a 2001 edition for Suella Braverman (or Suella Fernandes, as she was back then).

    While the entry itself focused largely on Suella's legendary drinking talents (recounting the time she got so sloshed she ended up prostrate in the foyer of a plush hotel in Grosvenor Square; or the time she drunkenly laid down on Silver Street and nearly got squashed by a lorry) it's the line at the very bottom of the page that really caught the eye.

    The prediction that had been made about Suella back in 2001? "Most probable future career – Leader Of The Opposition".
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,674

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    This may be a waste of my allotted image, but I was genuinely surprised at the mere idea that a YIMBY or NIMBY group should be expected to take a position on this issue.

    The first question I ask anyone I don't know is always "So, what's your position on Gaza?".

    If I do know them, it's different. Instead I say "I just want to check, your position on Gaza hasn't changed has it?"

    Candidly, I can't imagine any other way to be.
    Gaza isn't really about Gaza at all, which very few give a fuck about.

    It's just social proof for Progressives.
    "Why is a young man like you concerned about Northern Ireland? What about Vietnam? What about Rhodesia?" - Barbara Castle to Paul Rose MP, in 1967.
    Of course, Northern Ireland is - errrr - in the United Kingdom. So being concerned about doesn't exactly sound like a stretch.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,345
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,371
    The big question. Littler or Humphreys?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,164

    Meanwhile, in "once the election is called, that will focus minds" news,

    First @techneUK poll of the election

    Labour 45%
    Tory 19%
    Reform 14%
    LD 12%
    Green 5%

    First time the Tories have been under 20% with Techne.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1793712476816912724

    How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?

    Entertaining, but I assume that is the risible Goodwin's lot – hence caution required?
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,295

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Savanta have 44% saying Rishis launch in the rain went badly and..... um 35% think it went well

    See the public saw Rishi Sunak as the embodiment of the greatest Doctor ever, that's a win for Rishi.


    Tenant is a fecking arse. Get him off the thread
    That’s the Doctor.
    He's not MY doctor. He's no Eccleston
    i like them all

    I thought Peter Capaldi was a bit disappointing though
    Whittaker was terrible but that may be more down to the scripts.
    Whittaker's gabbling made her speech hard for my foreign chums to follow, although her stories were poor, and the set-up where the lady doctor trailed around her "fam" was vaguely misogynist.

    Tennant was the best actor to play the Doctor.

    Trivia: Capaldi is the only Doctor to have won an Oscar (as producer, not actor).

    And if RTD is so bloody clever, how come the credits misnamed the character as Doctor Who, and the titles show the Tardis careering around like the starship Enterprise? And why do they keep redesigning the daleks and Tardis? And breathe!
    I know Tennant Ten is technically the best, but I still have a soft spot for Matt Smith (from The Eleventh Hour to The Angels Take Manhattan(, and Peter Capaldi (from The Magician's Apprentice to Twice Upon a Time).

    Every decision taken during the Chibnall era was wrong. It's pointless pointing to a specific one, since it was just one large steaming pile of wrong. Jodie's interpretation was wrong. The redesigned Daleks were wrong. The fam were wrong. The CyberTimeLords were wrong. Flux was an enormous serialised wrong. The costume was wrong. The Sunny Delight Master was wrong. The Timeless Child made me cry with the wrongness. It was just rubbish from day one to day last.

    I’ve liked this but really want to like it ten times over. I’ve been a fan of Dr Who since the 1970’s. I’ve always been desperate to watch new WHO on TV right until Chibnall took over. So sad to not enjoy something that is an intimate part of my life.
    Dr Who peaked with The Happiness Patrol, a satire of late 80s Britain featuring an army of Margaret Thatcher stand-ins and an off-brand Bertie Bassett as the Big Bad.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0rEe8ultJ4

    It's all been downhill from there.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,007
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    This may be a waste of my allotted image, but I was genuinely surprised at the mere idea that a YIMBY or NIMBY group should be expected to take a position on this issue.

    The first question I ask anyone I don't know is always "So, what's your position on Gaza?".

    If I do know them, it's different. Instead I say "I just want to check, your position on Gaza hasn't changed has it?"

    Candidly, I can't imagine any other way to be.
    Gaza isn't really about Gaza at all, which very few give a fuck about.

    It's just social proof for Progressives.
    More seriously, I do find Gaza and Israel is an excellent test. If you are unable to acknowledge that two sets of people have both been wronged (Israeli citizens subject to rape, kidnapping and the occasional missile salvo, and Palestinians who have endured creeping invasion), then you are unable to handle nuance, and are not a serious person.

    By contrast, Ukraine is a much more clear and obvious case of good and evil.
    I was going to post a bar chart - but I've used up my picture quota :lol:
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,244
    Kellie-Jay Keen is also known as Posie Parker.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kellie-Jay_Keen-Minshull
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,007

    @Tomorrow'sMPs
    @tomorrowsmps

    🔵 Cons HQ have sent lust of 93 vacant seats open for applications: 1
    Daventry (East Midlands)
    · Leicester East (East Midlands)
    · Leicester South (East Midlands)
    · Leicester West (East Midlands)
    · Nottingham North and Kimberley (East Midlands)

    https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1793674917659205645

    Are people really that excited about becoming a Conservative MP in Leicester?
    Fair point. Are people ever excited to be in Leicester full stop?

    Station's OK...
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,053

    Meanwhile, in "once the election is called, that will focus minds" news,

    First @techneUK poll of the election

    Labour 45%
    Tory 19%
    Reform 14%
    LD 12%
    Green 5%

    First time the Tories have been under 20% with Techne.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1793712476816912724

    How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?

    Entertaining, but I assume that is the risible Goodwin's lot – hence caution required?
    No they are Italians. The difference they have been finding for at least the last 2 months is Labour leading in all age groups including over 65s (by 10% plus)
    They are hybrid phone/mobile/online pollsters
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,990

    The big question. Littler or Humphreys?

    Nuke
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,868
    edited May 23
    rcs1000 said:

    LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.

    I am not a spread bettor, the downside is too much for me. I had a spread markets one once but traded out and slept better. One concern is on liquidity.

    So, take the LD spread. Its very unlikely that LDs will go below 10, and 15 would be a realistic minimum, so the maximum win is 22 times the stake. On the other side a 1997 style result could lose a similar sum. A Blue Wall blowout with collapsing Tory vote and LDs having a good election could conceivably reach 100 seats. Unlikely but possible. That would be 60 times the stake. The risks are just too asymmetrical for me.


  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,007
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    This may be a waste of my allotted image, but I was genuinely surprised at the mere idea that a YIMBY or NIMBY group should be expected to take a position on this issue.

    The first question I ask anyone I don't know is always "So, what's your position on Gaza?".

    If I do know them, it's different. Instead I say "I just want to check, your position on Gaza hasn't changed has it?"

    Candidly, I can't imagine any other way to be.
    Gaza isn't really about Gaza at all, which very few give a fuck about.

    It's just social proof for Progressives.
    "Why is a young man like you concerned about Northern Ireland? What about Vietnam? What about Rhodesia?" - Barbara Castle to Paul Rose MP, in 1967.
    Of course, Northern Ireland is - errrr - in the United Kingdom. So being concerned about doesn't exactly sound like a stretch.
    I think the take-home is that Castle was more concerned about Vietnam and Rhodesia (as was) than social policy (etc.) in part of the UK.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,824

    Meanwhile, in "once the election is called, that will focus minds" news,

    First @techneUK poll of the election

    Labour 45%
    Tory 19%
    Reform 14%
    LD 12%
    Green 5%

    First time the Tories have been under 20% with Techne.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1793712476816912724

    How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?

    Entertaining, but I assume that is the risible Goodwin's lot – hence caution required?
    I think his is PeoplePolling, no?
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,068

    Carnyx said:

    My picture for Vanilla. Whitby Abbey in the fog, last Friday:


    Did you go on the NYMR steam train from Pickering?
    Unfortunately, no, due to the weather! I did do three bits of railway in Scarborough: The North Bay Railway, and the two Cliff Lifts.
    Next time you're up in the North East, suggest going a little bit further and doing LIndisfarne
    Not far from the Aln Valley Railway ... though the Marshall Meadows Cliff Railway no longer runs (just north of Berwick).
    TBF Aln Valley is rubbish.

    Speaking of NE rail stuff Sunil will be going to, there's gonna be a Railforums trip when the Northumberland line opens and depending on other commitments I'll be there. Now he just has to figure out which one I am...
    I suspect there's a few of us with alter egos over there...
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,244

    Meanwhile, in "once the election is called, that will focus minds" news,

    First @techneUK poll of the election

    Labour 45%
    Tory 19%
    Reform 14%
    LD 12%
    Green 5%

    First time the Tories have been under 20% with Techne.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1793712476816912724

    How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?

    At least the Tories can't go any lower than 19%. Or maybe they can.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,881
    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Savanta have 44% saying Rishis launch in the rain went badly and..... um 35% think it went well

    See the public saw Rishi Sunak as the embodiment of the greatest Doctor ever, that's a win for Rishi.


    Tenant is a fecking arse. Get him off the thread
    That’s the Doctor.
    He's not MY doctor. He's no Eccleston
    i like them all

    I thought Peter Capaldi was a bit disappointing though
    Whittaker was terrible but that may be more down to the scripts.
    Whittaker's gabbling made her speech hard for my foreign chums to follow, although her stories were poor, and the set-up where the lady doctor trailed around her "fam" was vaguely misogynist.

    Tennant was the best actor to play the Doctor.

    Trivia: Capaldi is the only Doctor to have won an Oscar (as producer, not actor).

    And if RTD is so bloody clever, how come the credits misnamed the character as Doctor Who, and the titles show the Tardis careering around like the starship Enterprise? And why do they keep redesigning the daleks and Tardis? And breathe!
    I know Tennant Ten is technically the best, but I still have a soft spot for Matt Smith (from The Eleventh Hour to The Angels Take Manhattan(, and Peter Capaldi (from The Magician's Apprentice to Twice Upon a Time).

    Every decision taken during the Chibnall era was wrong. It's pointless pointing to a specific one, since it was just one large steaming pile of wrong. Jodie's interpretation was wrong. The redesigned Daleks were wrong. The fam were wrong. The CyberTimeLords were wrong. Flux was an enormous serialised wrong. The costume was wrong. The Sunny Delight Master was wrong. The Timeless Child made me cry with the wrongness. It was just rubbish from day one to day last.

    I’ve liked this but really want to like it ten times over. I’ve been a fan of Dr Who since the 1970’s. I’ve always been desperate to watch new WHO on TV right until Chibnall took over. So sad to not enjoy something that is an intimate part of my life.
    Dr Who peaked with The Happiness Patrol, a satire of late 80s Britain featuring an army of Margaret Thatcher stand-ins and an off-brand Bertie Bassett as the Big Bad.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0rEe8ultJ4

    It's all been downhill from there.
    I cannot agree. The gothic era of Baker (Pyramids of Mars, Brain of Morbius etc) was the peak for old who. And the new version has had some brilliant episodes (Blink, Silence in the Library).
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,417
    Andy_JS said:

    Meanwhile, in "once the election is called, that will focus minds" news,

    First @techneUK poll of the election

    Labour 45%
    Tory 19%
    Reform 14%
    LD 12%
    Green 5%

    First time the Tories have been under 20% with Techne.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1793712476816912724

    How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?

    At least the Tories can't go any lower than 19%. Or maybe they can.
    CON would be on 50 seats on that poll!

    However there were polls showing similar LAB leads early in 1997 campaign.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,129
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    JUST PASSED ROBERT PESTON ON PARKWAY

    Also

    PEOPLE ARE WEARING MASKS AGAIN FFS

    WHICH PARKWAY? THERE ARE SEVERAL. A PARKWAY STATION IS A STATION CONSTRUCTED OUT OF THE WAY SO CARS CAN DRIVE TO IT FROM TOWN INSTEAD OF DRIVING INTO TOWN AND HENCE AVOIDING CONGESTION.
    THERE. IS. ONLY. ONE. PARKWAY

    https://press.disney.co.uk/news/executive-producer-dua-lipa-reveals-trailer-for-disney+-original-series-camden-premiering-may-29-on-disney+
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,201
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    JUST PASSED ROBERT PESTON ON PARKWAY

    Also

    PEOPLE ARE WEARING MASKS AGAIN FFS

    Nobody's wearing masks at Derby cricket ground.
    Hope you enjoyed it Andy
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,007

    Carnyx said:

    My picture for Vanilla. Whitby Abbey in the fog, last Friday:


    Did you go on the NYMR steam train from Pickering?
    Unfortunately, no, due to the weather! I did do three bits of railway in Scarborough: The North Bay Railway, and the two Cliff Lifts.
    Next time you're up in the North East, suggest going a little bit further and doing LIndisfarne
    Not far from the Aln Valley Railway ... though the Marshall Meadows Cliff Railway no longer runs (just north of Berwick).
    TBF Aln Valley is rubbish.

    Speaking of NE rail stuff Sunil will be going to, there's gonna be a Railforums trip when the Northumberland line opens and depending on other commitments I'll be there. Now he just has to figure out which one I am...
    I think the Blackpool North Station tram extension (rather short to be honest) and the Leven branch up in Scotland are opening imminently.
  • Options
    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,073
    edited May 23
    Carnyx said:

    My picture for Vanilla. Whitby Abbey in the fog, last Friday:


    Did you go on the NYMR steam train from Pickering?
    Unfortunately, no, due to the weather! I did do three bits of railway in Scarborough: The North Bay Railway, and the two Cliff Lifts.
    Next time you're up in the North East, suggest going a little bit further and doing LIndisfarne
    Not far from the Aln Valley Railway ... though the Marshall Meadows Cliff Railway no longer runs (just north of Berwick).
    There's an obscure one in the Flatlands that opened recently that I bet isn't on anyone's list:
    https://peatland.co.uk/

    There's a fair number of narrow gauge engines that were used to haul peat off the moors.

    [Barely 1km I think]
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,295

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Savanta have 44% saying Rishis launch in the rain went badly and..... um 35% think it went well

    See the public saw Rishi Sunak as the embodiment of the greatest Doctor ever, that's a win for Rishi.


    Tenant is a fecking arse. Get him off the thread
    That’s the Doctor.
    He's not MY doctor. He's no Eccleston
    i like them all

    I thought Peter Capaldi was a bit disappointing though
    Whittaker was terrible but that may be more down to the scripts.
    Whittaker's gabbling made her speech hard for my foreign chums to follow, although her stories were poor, and the set-up where the lady doctor trailed around her "fam" was vaguely misogynist.

    Tennant was the best actor to play the Doctor.

    Trivia: Capaldi is the only Doctor to have won an Oscar (as producer, not actor).

    And if RTD is so bloody clever, how come the credits misnamed the character as Doctor Who, and the titles show the Tardis careering around like the starship Enterprise? And why do they keep redesigning the daleks and Tardis? And breathe!
    I know Tennant Ten is technically the best, but I still have a soft spot for Matt Smith (from The Eleventh Hour to The Angels Take Manhattan(, and Peter Capaldi (from The Magician's Apprentice to Twice Upon a Time).

    Every decision taken during the Chibnall era was wrong. It's pointless pointing to a specific one, since it was just one large steaming pile of wrong. Jodie's interpretation was wrong. The redesigned Daleks were wrong. The fam were wrong. The CyberTimeLords were wrong. Flux was an enormous serialised wrong. The costume was wrong. The Sunny Delight Master was wrong. The Timeless Child made me cry with the wrongness. It was just rubbish from day one to day last.

    I’ve liked this but really want to like it ten times over. I’ve been a fan of Dr Who since the 1970’s. I’ve always been desperate to watch new WHO on TV right until Chibnall took over. So sad to not enjoy something that is an intimate part of my life.
    Dr Who peaked with The Happiness Patrol, a satire of late 80s Britain featuring an army of Margaret Thatcher stand-ins and an off-brand Bertie Bassett as the Big Bad.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0rEe8ultJ4

    It's all been downhill from there.
    I cannot agree. The gothic era of Baker (Pyramids of Mars, Brain of Morbius etc) was the peak for old who. And the new version has had some brilliant episodes (Blink, Silence in the Library).
    Ah, Blink was the first one with the stone angel baddies, wasn't it? That scared me even as an adult.

    Sylvester McCoy remains my favourite Doctor, though, even if he did get more than his fair share of bad scripts and ridiculously low rent productions. Clownish at first, but darker and more manipulative as the series went on.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,569

    Carnyx said:

    My picture for Vanilla. Whitby Abbey in the fog, last Friday:


    Did you go on the NYMR steam train from Pickering?
    Unfortunately, no, due to the weather! I did do three bits of railway in Scarborough: The North Bay Railway, and the two Cliff Lifts.
    Next time you're up in the North East, suggest going a little bit further and doing LIndisfarne
    Not far from the Aln Valley Railway ... though the Marshall Meadows Cliff Railway no longer runs (just north of Berwick).
    TBF Aln Valley is rubbish.

    Speaking of NE rail stuff Sunil will be going to, there's gonna be a Railforums trip when the Northumberland line opens and depending on other commitments I'll be there. Now he just has to figure out which one I am...
    We could have a mini PB meetup.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,129
    edited May 23
    I just got pissed on good quality champagne provided by a well known upmarket tour operator at a function at the "Elvis Experience" museum at the Arches by the Shard

    I mention this not to boast of my high falutin' social connexions, I was probably the most famous person there, it was that E list, but because of the quality of booze provided. These things, I have discovered, are a good test of how the travel biz is doing, and how therefore the wider economy is doing

    The company was launching a whole new raft of holidays, on a new continent. The booze was therefore very good and free flowing, they told me business was great

    Despite everything, economically things are deffo picking up, a natural vigour and confidence may finally be returning

    I hesitate to say London is back, but Travel is definitely back. I have commissions stretching to Christmas, all over the world, and no problem finding people to send me, even for the humble Knappers' Gazette

  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,526
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.

    I am not a spread bettor, the downside is too much for me. I had a spread markets one once but traded out and slept better. One concern is on liquidity.

    So, take the LD spread. Its very unlikely that LDs will go below 10, and 15 would be a realistic minimum, so the maximum win is 22 times the stake. On the other side a 1997 style result could lose a similar sum. A Blue Wall blowout with collapsing Tory vote and LDs having a good election could conceivably reach 100 seats. Unlikely but possible. That would be 60 times the stake. The risks are just too asymmetrical for me.


    The Tories have given up. Hearing astonishing things in places like Surrey. Feels like this could be an election where the old rules get junked.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,053
    Bit of a coup for Galloway, Khalil Ahmed the Lab 2019 candidate for Wycombe standing for WPB in Wycombe again against Steve Baker
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,881
    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Savanta have 44% saying Rishis launch in the rain went badly and..... um 35% think it went well

    See the public saw Rishi Sunak as the embodiment of the greatest Doctor ever, that's a win for Rishi.


    Tenant is a fecking arse. Get him off the thread
    That’s the Doctor.
    He's not MY doctor. He's no Eccleston
    i like them all

    I thought Peter Capaldi was a bit disappointing though
    Whittaker was terrible but that may be more down to the scripts.
    Whittaker's gabbling made her speech hard for my foreign chums to follow, although her stories were poor, and the set-up where the lady doctor trailed around her "fam" was vaguely misogynist.

    Tennant was the best actor to play the Doctor.

    Trivia: Capaldi is the only Doctor to have won an Oscar (as producer, not actor).

    And if RTD is so bloody clever, how come the credits misnamed the character as Doctor Who, and the titles show the Tardis careering around like the starship Enterprise? And why do they keep redesigning the daleks and Tardis? And breathe!
    I know Tennant Ten is technically the best, but I still have a soft spot for Matt Smith (from The Eleventh Hour to The Angels Take Manhattan(, and Peter Capaldi (from The Magician's Apprentice to Twice Upon a Time).

    Every decision taken during the Chibnall era was wrong. It's pointless pointing to a specific one, since it was just one large steaming pile of wrong. Jodie's interpretation was wrong. The redesigned Daleks were wrong. The fam were wrong. The CyberTimeLords were wrong. Flux was an enormous serialised wrong. The costume was wrong. The Sunny Delight Master was wrong. The Timeless Child made me cry with the wrongness. It was just rubbish from day one to day last.

    I’ve liked this but really want to like it ten times over. I’ve been a fan of Dr Who since the 1970’s. I’ve always been desperate to watch new WHO on TV right until Chibnall took over. So sad to not enjoy something that is an intimate part of my life.
    Dr Who peaked with The Happiness Patrol, a satire of late 80s Britain featuring an army of Margaret Thatcher stand-ins and an off-brand Bertie Bassett as the Big Bad.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0rEe8ultJ4

    It's all been downhill from there.
    I cannot agree. The gothic era of Baker (Pyramids of Mars, Brain of Morbius etc) was the peak for old who. And the new version has had some brilliant episodes (Blink, Silence in the Library).
    Ah, Blink was the first one with the stone angel baddies, wasn't it? That scared me even as an adult.

    Sylvester McCoy remains my favourite Doctor, though, even if he did get more than his fair share of bad scripts and ridiculously low rent productions. Clownish at first, but darker and more manipulative as the series went on.
    The Cartmel master plan foreshadows the narrative arcs of modern Who. I think McCoy suffered from a lot of stuff.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,306

    Andy_JS said:

    Meanwhile, in "once the election is called, that will focus minds" news,

    First @techneUK poll of the election

    Labour 45%
    Tory 19%
    Reform 14%
    LD 12%
    Green 5%

    First time the Tories have been under 20% with Techne.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1793712476816912724

    How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?

    At least the Tories can't go any lower than 19%. Or maybe they can.
    CON would be on 50 seats on that poll!

    However there were polls showing similar LAB leads early in 1997 campaign.
    Yes. I continue to think that the real story of this election will not be Labour’s % but the Conservative one.

    19% Conservative vote share is 7% below their lowest polling in the whole of 1997 up to the GE.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election



  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,942

    "The spreads are open"

    Wa-hey! That sounds INCREDIBLY rude!

    A 45 yo virgin speaks
    1) I'm actually 48!

    2) How do you know I'm a virgin?
    1) I stand corrected.
    2) You told us, surely?
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,234

    Andy_JS said:

    Meanwhile, in "once the election is called, that will focus minds" news,

    First @techneUK poll of the election

    Labour 45%
    Tory 19%
    Reform 14%
    LD 12%
    Green 5%

    First time the Tories have been under 20% with Techne.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1793712476816912724

    How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?

    At least the Tories can't go any lower than 19%. Or maybe they can.
    CON would be on 50 seats on that poll!

    However there were polls showing similar LAB leads early in 1997 campaign.
    There were, but (Gold Standard) ICM went on to become the model for how everyone does polling now.

    On 2/3/97, they had L48C30LD16
    On 31/3/97, they had L46C32LD17.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,306
    edited May 23
    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.

    I am not a spread bettor, the downside is too much for me. I had a spread markets one once but traded out and slept better. One concern is on liquidity.

    So, take the LD spread. Its very unlikely that LDs will go below 10, and 15 would be a realistic minimum, so the maximum win is 22 times the stake. On the other side a 1997 style result could lose a similar sum. A Blue Wall blowout with collapsing Tory vote and LDs having a good election could conceivably reach 100 seats. Unlikely but possible. That would be 60 times the stake. The risks are just too asymmetrical for me.


    The Tories have given up. Hearing astonishing things in places like Surrey. Feels like this could be an election where the old rules get junked.
    Interesting. Surrey is definitely one to watch. Could be some major scalps with the blue county turning yellow.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,129
    edited May 23

    Andy_JS said:

    Meanwhile, in "once the election is called, that will focus minds" news,

    First @techneUK poll of the election

    Labour 45%
    Tory 19%
    Reform 14%
    LD 12%
    Green 5%

    First time the Tories have been under 20% with Techne.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1793712476816912724

    How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?

    At least the Tories can't go any lower than 19%. Or maybe they can.
    CON would be on 50 seats on that poll!

    However there were polls showing similar LAB leads early in 1997 campaign.
    This is a new era. I reckon the Tories are gonna get the blame for EVERYTHING that has gone wrong since 2019. Not just Brexit (which is deserved), not just immigration and small boats (MORE than deserved) but also Covid, Ukraine, Gaza, inflation, Cameron, the Coalition, Clegg, student fees, litter, bad weather, my nan, your divorce, the decline of Bake Off, Man City winning too many times, kicking out Boris, the state of the high street, the state of your wife's face, your recent parking fine, you name it, the voters are going to blame the Govt for EVERYTHING and they are going to give this hapless bunch of spineless posho chancers the biggest kicking we have seen in British electoral history, out of sheer spite, venom, revenge and anger

    They should be thankful Farage bottled it, if he was in it, I reckon Reform could actually get more votes than the Tories. As it is I can EASILY see the Tories slipping under 100 seats
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,307

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    This may be a waste of my allotted image, but I was genuinely surprised at the mere idea that a YIMBY or NIMBY group should be expected to take a position on this issue.

    The first question I ask anyone I don't know is always "So, what's your position on Gaza?".

    If I do know them, it's different. Instead I say "I just want to check, your position on Gaza hasn't changed has it?"

    Candidly, I can't imagine any other way to be.
    Gaza isn't really about Gaza at all, which very few give a fuck about.

    It's just social proof for Progressives.
    "Why is a young man like you concerned about Northern Ireland? What about Vietnam? What about Rhodesia?" - Barbara Castle to Paul Rose MP, in 1967.
    Of course, Northern Ireland is - errrr - in the United Kingdom. So being concerned about doesn't exactly sound like a stretch.
    I think the take-home is that Castle was more concerned about Vietnam and Rhodesia (as was) than social policy (etc.) in part of the UK.
    In 1967, Northern Ireland was just starting to unravel. Paul Rose was one of few who were concerned or even noticed. This was five years before Bloody Sunday, for instance. Rhodesia's UDI (unilateral declaration of independence from Britain) had been a year or so earlier, and we all know about Vietnam.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,307
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Meanwhile, in "once the election is called, that will focus minds" news,

    First @techneUK poll of the election

    Labour 45%
    Tory 19%
    Reform 14%
    LD 12%
    Green 5%

    First time the Tories have been under 20% with Techne.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1793712476816912724

    How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?

    At least the Tories can't go any lower than 19%. Or maybe they can.
    CON would be on 50 seats on that poll!

    However there were polls showing similar LAB leads early in 1997 campaign.
    This is a new era. I reckon the Tories are gonna get the blame for EVERYTHING that has gone wrong since 2019. Not just Brexit (which is deserved), not just immigration and small boats (MORE than deserved) but also Covid, Ukraine, Gaza, inflation, Cameron, the Coalition, Clegg, student fees, litter, bad weather, my nan, your divorce, the decline of Bake Off, Man City winning too many times, kicking out Boris, the state of the high street, the state of your wife's face, your recent parking fine, you name it, the voters are going to blame the Govt for EVERYTHING and they are going to give this hapless bunch of spineless posho chancers the biggest kicking we have seen in British electoral history, out of sheer spite, venom, revenge and anger

    They should be thankful Farage bottled it, if he was in it, I reckon Reform could actually get more votes than the Tories. As it is I can EASILY see the Tories slipping under 100 seats
    The main factor in RefUK outpolling the Conservatives is not Farage but how many seats have candidates. imo Tice is whistling in the dark if he thinks they will run a full slate.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,007

    "The spreads are open"

    Wa-hey! That sounds INCREDIBLY rude!

    A 45 yo virgin speaks
    1) I'm actually 48!

    2) How do you know I'm a virgin?
    1) I stand corrected.
    2) You told us, surely?
    2) I can't remember! :lol:
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,129
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Meanwhile, in "once the election is called, that will focus minds" news,

    First @techneUK poll of the election

    Labour 45%
    Tory 19%
    Reform 14%
    LD 12%
    Green 5%

    First time the Tories have been under 20% with Techne.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1793712476816912724

    How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?

    At least the Tories can't go any lower than 19%. Or maybe they can.
    CON would be on 50 seats on that poll!

    However there were polls showing similar LAB leads early in 1997 campaign.
    This is a new era. I reckon the Tories are gonna get the blame for EVERYTHING that has gone wrong since 2019. Not just Brexit (which is deserved), not just immigration and small boats (MORE than deserved) but also Covid, Ukraine, Gaza, inflation, Cameron, the Coalition, Clegg, student fees, litter, bad weather, my nan, your divorce, the decline of Bake Off, Man City winning too many times, kicking out Boris, the state of the high street, the state of your wife's face, your recent parking fine, you name it, the voters are going to blame the Govt for EVERYTHING and they are going to give this hapless bunch of spineless posho chancers the biggest kicking we have seen in British electoral history, out of sheer spite, venom, revenge and anger

    They should be thankful Farage bottled it, if he was in it, I reckon Reform could actually get more votes than the Tories. As it is I can EASILY say the Tories slipping under 100 seats
    You forgot one. Liz Truss killed The Queen.
    Indeed. The Queen. The fuckers KILLED THE QUEEN

    I disagree with you on almost everything. OK everything, but I agree with you on this. This election is potentially unprecedented in its horror for the governing party, the anger and contempt for the Tories is off the dial

    They have successfully alienated everyone apart from wealthy pensioners who love mass, unchecked immigration. This is a small cohort, to put it mildly. It's probably Roger
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,007

    Bit of a coup for Galloway, Khalil Ahmed the Lab 2019 candidate for Wycombe standing for WPB in Wycombe again against Steve Baker

    Great news for Steve Baker!
    Vote WPB, get Tory.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,116

    Andy_JS said:

    Meanwhile, in "once the election is called, that will focus minds" news,

    First @techneUK poll of the election

    Labour 45%
    Tory 19%
    Reform 14%
    LD 12%
    Green 5%

    First time the Tories have been under 20% with Techne.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1793712476816912724

    How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?

    At least the Tories can't go any lower than 19%. Or maybe they can.
    CON would be on 50 seats on that poll!

    However there were polls showing similar LAB leads early in 1997 campaign.
    There were, but (Gold Standard) ICM went on to become the model for how everyone does polling now.

    On 2/3/97, they had L48C30LD16
    On 31/3/97, they had L46C32LD17.
    They had just a 5% lead with a week to go, so rogue polls are possible, even with gold standards.

    Is it possible a humans eventually vote is 90% settled weeks or months in advance, but they tell pollsters different things in campaign weeks based on prevailing mood on the day? Similar to after event false recall - which isn’t actually recall it’s a lie, voters feel a compulsion to fib to pollsters before elections too.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,868

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    This may be a waste of my allotted image, but I was genuinely surprised at the mere idea that a YIMBY or NIMBY group should be expected to take a position on this issue.

    The first question I ask anyone I don't know is always "So, what's your position on Gaza?".

    If I do know them, it's different. Instead I say "I just want to check, your position on Gaza hasn't changed has it?"

    Candidly, I can't imagine any other way to be.
    Gaza isn't really about Gaza at all, which very few give a fuck about.

    It's just social proof for Progressives.
    "Why is a young man like you concerned about Northern Ireland? What about Vietnam? What about Rhodesia?" - Barbara Castle to Paul Rose MP, in 1967.
    Of course, Northern Ireland is - errrr - in the United Kingdom. So being concerned about doesn't exactly sound like a stretch.
    I think the take-home is that Castle was more concerned about Vietnam and Rhodesia (as was) than social policy (etc.) in part of the UK.
    In 1967, Northern Ireland was just starting to unravel. Paul Rose was one of few who were concerned or even noticed. This was five years before Bloody Sunday, for instance. Rhodesia's UDI (unilateral declaration of independence from Britain) had been a year or so earlier, and we all know about Vietnam.
    The Americans were pressuring us to send troops to Vietnam (like South Korea, Australia and NZ) but Wilson refused. It was a big issue at the time. As was the White Supremacist regime in Rhodesia with its UDI.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105

    Bit of a coup for Galloway, Khalil Ahmed the Lab 2019 candidate for Wycombe standing for WPB in Wycombe again against Steve Baker

    Great news for Steve Baker!
    Vote WPB, get Tory.
    Listening to some people it probably works the other way around
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,904
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Meanwhile, in "once the election is called, that will focus minds" news,

    First @techneUK poll of the election

    Labour 45%
    Tory 19%
    Reform 14%
    LD 12%
    Green 5%

    First time the Tories have been under 20% with Techne.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1793712476816912724

    How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?

    At least the Tories can't go any lower than 19%. Or maybe they can.
    CON would be on 50 seats on that poll!

    However there were polls showing similar LAB leads early in 1997 campaign.
    This is a new era. I reckon the Tories are gonna get the blame for EVERYTHING that has gone wrong since 2019. Not just Brexit (which is deserved), not just immigration and small boats (MORE than deserved) but also Covid, Ukraine, Gaza, inflation, Cameron, the Coalition, Clegg, student fees, litter, bad weather, my nan, your divorce, the decline of Bake Off, Man City winning too many times, kicking out Boris, the state of the high street, the state of your wife's face, your recent parking fine, you name it, the voters are going to blame the Govt for EVERYTHING and they are going to give this hapless bunch of spineless posho chancers the biggest kicking we have seen in British electoral history, out of sheer spite, venom, revenge and anger

    They should be thankful Farage bottled it, if he was in it, I reckon Reform could actually get more votes than the Tories. As it is I can EASILY say the Tories slipping under 100 seats
    You forgot one. Liz Truss killed The Queen.
    Indeed. The Queen. The fuckers KILLED THE QUEEN

    I disagree with you on almost everything. OK everything, but I agree with you on this. This election is potentially unprecedented in its horror for the governing party, the anger and contempt for the Tories is off the dial

    They have successfully alienated everyone apart from wealthy pensioners who love mass, unchecked immigration. This is a small cohort, to put it mildly. It's probably Roger
    Seems a shame he's so cross with them, considering.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,164
    DougSeal said:

    Meanwhile, in "once the election is called, that will focus minds" news,

    First @techneUK poll of the election

    Labour 45%
    Tory 19%
    Reform 14%
    LD 12%
    Green 5%

    First time the Tories have been under 20% with Techne.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1793712476816912724

    How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?

    Entertaining, but I assume that is the risible Goodwin's lot – hence caution required?
    I think his is PeoplePolling, no?
    Ah apologies, I think you are right.
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,013

    Carnyx said:

    My picture for Vanilla. Whitby Abbey in the fog, last Friday:


    Did you go on the NYMR steam train from Pickering?
    Unfortunately, no, due to the weather! I did do three bits of railway in Scarborough: The North Bay Railway, and the two Cliff Lifts.
    Next time you're up in the North East, suggest going a little bit further and doing LIndisfarne
    Not far from the Aln Valley Railway ... though the Marshall Meadows Cliff Railway no longer runs (just north of Berwick).
    TBF Aln Valley is rubbish.

    Speaking of NE rail stuff Sunil will be going to, there's gonna be a Railforums trip when the Northumberland line opens and depending on other commitments I'll be there. Now he just has to figure out which one I am...
    I think the Blackpool North Station tram extension (rather short to be honest) and the Leven branch up in Scotland are opening imminently.
    Blackpool North Station is an "experience". Only station I know where they don't let you on the platform until your train is at the platform. Apparently fare-dodging is endemic.
  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    Leon said:

    I just got pissed on good quality champagne provided by a well known upmarket tour operator at a function at the "Elvis Experience" museum at the Arches by the Shard

    I mention this not to boast of my high falutin' social connexions, I was probably the most famous person there, it was that E list, but because of the quality of booze provided. These things, I have discovered, are a good test of how the travel biz is doing, and how therefore the wider economy is doing

    The company was launching a whole new raft of holidays, on a new continent. The booze was therefore very good and free flowing, they told me business was great

    Despite everything, economically things are deffo picking up, a natural vigour and confidence may finally be returning

    I hesitate to say London is back, but Travel is definitely back. I have commissions stretching to Christmas, all over the world, and no problem finding people to send me, even for the humble Knappers' Gazette

    Good quality because it was or because you saw the label? We live in a golden age of sparkling wine because horrible overpriced prosecco has induced cutthroat pricing for all sorts of cremant and cava and blanquette de limoux and so on. I am currently polishing off a bottle of agreeable cava from Tesco which cost about 60 % of the price of a pint of pub beer.

  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,116
    rcs1000 said:

    LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.

    They are getting 16% on election day.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,868

    Andy_JS said:

    Meanwhile, in "once the election is called, that will focus minds" news,

    First @techneUK poll of the election

    Labour 45%
    Tory 19%
    Reform 14%
    LD 12%
    Green 5%

    First time the Tories have been under 20% with Techne.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1793712476816912724

    How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?

    At least the Tories can't go any lower than 19%. Or maybe they can.
    CON would be on 50 seats on that poll!

    However there were polls showing similar LAB leads early in 1997 campaign.
    There were, but (Gold Standard) ICM went on to become the model for how everyone does polling now.

    On 2/3/97, they had L48C30LD16
    On 31/3/97, they had L46C32LD17.
    They had just a 5% lead with a week to go, so rogue polls are possible, even with gold standards.

    Is it possible a humans eventually vote is 90% settled weeks or months in advance, but they tell pollsters different things in campaign weeks based on prevailing mood on the day? Similar to after event false recall - which isn’t actually recall it’s a lie, voters feel a compulsion to fib to pollsters before elections too.
    I think a lot of the "swingback" and "shy Tory" phenomena in 1992, 1997 and 2001 was about selective turnout, but that seems to have faded more recently. I suspect in large part down to the SE demographics of both Labour and Tory voters changing.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,305
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Meanwhile, in "once the election is called, that will focus minds" news,

    First @techneUK poll of the election

    Labour 45%
    Tory 19%
    Reform 14%
    LD 12%
    Green 5%

    First time the Tories have been under 20% with Techne.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1793712476816912724

    How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?

    At least the Tories can't go any lower than 19%. Or maybe they can.
    CON would be on 50 seats on that poll!

    However there were polls showing similar LAB leads early in 1997 campaign.
    This is a new era. I reckon the Tories are gonna get the blame for EVERYTHING that has gone wrong since 2019. Not just Brexit (which is deserved), not just immigration and small boats (MORE than deserved) but also Covid, Ukraine, Gaza, inflation, Cameron, the Coalition, Clegg, student fees, litter, bad weather, my nan, your divorce, the decline of Bake Off, Man City winning too many times, kicking out Boris, the state of the high street, the state of your wife's face, your recent parking fine, you name it, the voters are going to blame the Govt for EVERYTHING and they are going to give this hapless bunch of spineless posho chancers the biggest kicking we have seen in British electoral history, out of sheer spite, venom, revenge and anger

    They should be thankful Farage bottled it, if he was in it, I reckon Reform could actually get more votes than the Tories. As it is I can EASILY see the Tories slipping under 100 seats
    I don’t think you’ll like a 300 seat Labour majority, but then democracy means the people deserve to get what they vote for, good and hard.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,942

    "The spreads are open"

    Wa-hey! That sounds INCREDIBLY rude!

    A 45 yo virgin speaks
    1) I'm actually 48!

    2) How do you know I'm a virgin?
    1) I stand corrected.
    2) You told us, surely?
    2) I can't remember! :lol:
    Are you sure you're only 48?
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,904
    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    JUST PASSED ROBERT PESTON ON PARKWAY

    Also

    PEOPLE ARE WEARING MASKS AGAIN FFS

    WHICH PARKWAY? THERE ARE SEVERAL. A PARKWAY STATION IS A STATION CONSTRUCTED OUT OF THE WAY SO CARS CAN DRIVE TO IT FROM TOWN INSTEAD OF DRIVING INTO TOWN AND HENCE AVOIDING CONGESTION.
    THERE. IS. ONLY. ONE. PARKWAY

    https://press.disney.co.uk/news/executive-producer-dua-lipa-reveals-trailer-for-disney+-original-series-camden-premiering-may-29-on-disney+
    I DON'T UNDERSTAND. I CAN THINK OF SEVERAL. BRISTOL PARKWAY? HORWICH PARKWAY? ALFRETON AND MANSFIELD PARKWAY? [Not sure that one still exists.]. WHICH PARKWAY? AND WHAT IS THE RELEVANCE OF THE LINK?
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    I fear one of the nightmares from the 1997 election might get resurrected.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/23/starmer-doesnt-have-the-courage-to-debate-me-says-sunak/

    Sunak is going to deploy the bloody chicken isn’t he….
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,007

    Carnyx said:

    My picture for Vanilla. Whitby Abbey in the fog, last Friday:


    Did you go on the NYMR steam train from Pickering?
    Unfortunately, no, due to the weather! I did do three bits of railway in Scarborough: The North Bay Railway, and the two Cliff Lifts.
    Next time you're up in the North East, suggest going a little bit further and doing LIndisfarne
    Not far from the Aln Valley Railway ... though the Marshall Meadows Cliff Railway no longer runs (just north of Berwick).
    TBF Aln Valley is rubbish.

    Speaking of NE rail stuff Sunil will be going to, there's gonna be a Railforums trip when the Northumberland line opens and depending on other commitments I'll be there. Now he just has to figure out which one I am...
    I think the Blackpool North Station tram extension (rather short to be honest) and the Leven branch up in Scotland are opening imminently.
    Blackpool North Station is an "experience". Only station I know where they don't let you on the platform until your train is at the platform. Apparently fare-dodging is endemic.
    I last visited in 2017. I don't remember such an "experience", maybe they changed since then?
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,358
    edited May 23
    Andy_JS said:

    Meanwhile, in "once the election is called, that will focus minds" news,

    First @techneUK poll of the election

    Labour 45%
    Tory 19%
    Reform 14%
    LD 12%
    Green 5%

    First time the Tories have been under 20% with Techne.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1793712476816912724

    How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?

    At least the Tories can't go any lower than 19%. Or maybe they can.
    If Farage wasn't having more fun in the US, and had been working away as leader of Reform, then there'd be a chance of Reform surpassing the Tories and squeezing them below 10% - as in the 2019 European elections. But as it is the Tory floor will be higher, because they're the best vote for stemming the Labour tide.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,022

    The big question. Littler or Humphreys?

    Humphries.

  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,007

    "The spreads are open"

    Wa-hey! That sounds INCREDIBLY rude!

    A 45 yo virgin speaks
    1) I'm actually 48!

    2) How do you know I'm a virgin?
    1) I stand corrected.
    2) You told us, surely?
    2) I can't remember! :lol:
    Are you sure you're only 48?
    Been told I look young for my age :)
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,129
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    JUST PASSED ROBERT PESTON ON PARKWAY

    Also

    PEOPLE ARE WEARING MASKS AGAIN FFS

    WHICH PARKWAY? THERE ARE SEVERAL. A PARKWAY STATION IS A STATION CONSTRUCTED OUT OF THE WAY SO CARS CAN DRIVE TO IT FROM TOWN INSTEAD OF DRIVING INTO TOWN AND HENCE AVOIDING CONGESTION.
    THERE. IS. ONLY. ONE. PARKWAY

    https://press.disney.co.uk/news/executive-producer-dua-lipa-reveals-trailer-for-disney+-original-series-camden-premiering-may-29-on-disney+
    I DON'T UNDERSTAND. I CAN THINK OF SEVERAL. BRISTOL PARKWAY? HORWICH PARKWAY? ALFRETON AND MANSFIELD PARKWAY? [Not sure that one still exists.]. WHICH PARKWAY? AND WHAT IS THE RELEVANCE OF THE LINK?
    It's a forthcoming Disney documentary about Camden Town, Which is the location of THE ONLY PARKWAY WORTH TALKING ABOUT

    Except maybe Bodmin Parkway, as it is so weird and remote
  • Options
    DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 739
    Something I should really know but have never quite got my head around :blush:

    Can someone explain the difference between Parliament being prorogued and dissolved?

    Thanks!
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,868
    Incidentally, we inhabit a hell of a bubble. I have had a busy day, amongst both patients and staff.

    No one has mentioned the GE or any politician, nor have I overheard anyone speaking of it.
  • Options
    PJHPJH Posts: 564

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    Against the 1997 Redux argument, I guess it’s possible that Labour might slightly underperform in London.

    More significantly, they won 56 seats in Scotland. They’re on a bounce north of the border, but not by that much I doubt.

    Anyway, a long way to go and I’d like to see some more opinion polling now that the main VI question ceases to be hypothetical.

    Lab have to underperform against UNS somewhere, and my guess is London. I still wouldn't have the Tories winning anywhere they didn't in 97 though.
    Are we counting Romford, Hornchurch, Upminster (3 seats then, 2 now) as not-London? All three fell to Labour in '97, before drifting back in '01 and '05.

    The demographic drift has made them more right-wing for now, though probably only for another decade or so.
    Indeed, but right wing enough to stem the tide?
    Probably this time- the GLA results didn't show much to worry about. If any of them do go then it really is a really terrible night for the Tories.
    Also, the boundaries have changed to the Tories' advantage in both Romford and Upminster. Labour only won by 649 in Romford in 1997 (to everybody's surprise - no actual campaigning took place as both parties assumed a Tory hold). I would guess a 2-3000 majority for Rosindell now is an equivalent result. The majority in Upminster is even larger. If they lose either this time then we're close to an ELE.

    (Incidentally the Tories played a blinder at the review prior to 2010 in persuading the Electoral Commission to add all the Labour parts of Hornchurch to Dagenham and the Tory parts to Romford and Upminster; IIRC the original proposals were to add some wards from Dagenham to Romford).
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,990
    So, United vs City again in the Premier League final.
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Meanwhile, in "once the election is called, that will focus minds" news,

    First @techneUK poll of the election

    Labour 45%
    Tory 19%
    Reform 14%
    LD 12%
    Green 5%

    First time the Tories have been under 20% with Techne.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1793712476816912724

    How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?

    At least the Tories can't go any lower than 19%. Or maybe they can.
    CON would be on 50 seats on that poll!

    However there were polls showing similar LAB leads early in 1997 campaign.
    This is a new era. I reckon the Tories are gonna get the blame for EVERYTHING that has gone wrong since 2019. Not just Brexit (which is deserved), not just immigration and small boats (MORE than deserved) but also Covid, Ukraine, Gaza, inflation, Cameron, the Coalition, Clegg, student fees, litter, bad weather, my nan, your divorce, the decline of Bake Off, Man City winning too many times, kicking out Boris, the state of the high street, the state of your wife's face, your recent parking fine, you name it, the voters are going to blame the Govt for EVERYTHING and they are going to give this hapless bunch of spineless posho chancers the biggest kicking we have seen in British electoral history, out of sheer spite, venom, revenge and anger

    They should be thankful Farage bottled it, if he was in it, I reckon Reform could actually get more votes than the Tories. As it is I can EASILY see the Tories slipping under 100 seats
    Farage is a funny one. What on earth is he on about - "I was going to run, Sunak heard and called an early election so now I'm not"

    I assume he is off to the US to insert tongue up Trump arse in the debate. But the rest of the time he will be on GBeebies every night. I have to assume he will be ramping Reform and belittling the Tories every single night.

    So what does that do to the remaining Tory vote? Supposedly they think Farage is the most Tory of Tories. And the election is clearly lost. So the battle is for the soul of the Tory party and the Nigel has his lips hovering over the flute...
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,942
    ToryJim said:

    I fear one of the nightmares from the 1997 election might get resurrected.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/23/starmer-doesnt-have-the-courage-to-debate-me-says-sunak/

    Sunak is going to deploy the bloody chicken isn’t he….

    Is there any truth in the (paywalled) Telegraph article? I would have thought Keir Starmer KC would be happy debating with Sunak.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,658

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Savanta have 44% saying Rishis launch in the rain went badly and..... um 35% think it went well

    See the public saw Rishi Sunak as the embodiment of the greatest Doctor ever, that's a win for Rishi.


    Tenant is a fecking arse. Get him off the thread
    That’s the Doctor.
    He's not MY doctor. He's no Eccleston
    i like them all

    I thought Peter Capaldi was a bit disappointing though
    Whittaker was terrible but that may be more down to the scripts.
    Whittaker's gabbling made her speech hard for my foreign chums to follow, although her stories were poor, and the set-up where the lady doctor trailed around her "fam" was vaguely misogynist.

    Tennant was the best actor to play the Doctor.

    Trivia: Capaldi is the only Doctor to have won an Oscar (as producer, not actor).

    And if RTD is so bloody clever, how come the credits misnamed the character as Doctor Who, and the titles show the Tardis careering around like the starship Enterprise? And why do they keep redesigning the daleks and Tardis? And breathe!
    I know Tennant Ten is technically the best, but I still have a soft spot for Matt Smith (from The Eleventh Hour to The Angels Take Manhattan(, and Peter Capaldi (from The Magician's Apprentice to Twice Upon a Time).

    Every decision taken during the Chibnall era was wrong. It's pointless pointing to a specific one, since it was just one large steaming pile of wrong. Jodie's interpretation was wrong. The redesigned Daleks were wrong. The fam were wrong. The CyberTimeLords were wrong. Flux was an enormous serialised wrong. The costume was wrong. The Sunny Delight Master was wrong. The Timeless Child made me cry with the wrongness. It was just rubbish from day one to day last.

    I’ve liked this but really want to like it ten times over. I’ve been a fan of Dr Who since the 1970’s. I’ve always been desperate to watch new WHO on TV right until Chibnall took over. So sad to not enjoy something that is an intimate part of my life.
    Dr Who peaked with The Happiness Patrol, a satire of late 80s Britain featuring an army of Margaret Thatcher stand-ins and an off-brand Bertie Bassett as the Big Bad.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0rEe8ultJ4

    It's all been downhill from there.
    I cannot agree. The gothic era of Baker (Pyramids of Mars, Brain of Morbius etc) was the peak for old who. And the new version has had some brilliant episodes (Blink, Silence in the Library).
    Ah, Blink was the first one with the stone angel baddies, wasn't it? That scared me even as an adult.

    Sylvester McCoy remains my favourite Doctor, though, even if he did get more than his fair share of bad scripts and ridiculously low rent productions. Clownish at first, but darker and more manipulative as the series went on.
    The Cartmel master plan foreshadows the narrative arcs of modern Who. I think McCoy suffered from a lot of stuff.
    The Cartmel masterplan was explored in the Virgin New Adventures, which were then hugely influential on modern Who, with RTD's first Who work being a New Adventures novel.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,022

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Savanta have 44% saying Rishis launch in the rain went badly and..... um 35% think it went well

    See the public saw Rishi Sunak as the embodiment of the greatest Doctor ever, that's a win for Rishi.


    Tenant is a fecking arse. Get him off the thread
    That’s the Doctor.
    He's not MY doctor. He's no Eccleston
    i like them all

    I thought Peter Capaldi was a bit disappointing though
    Whittaker was terrible but that may be more down to the scripts.
    Whittaker's gabbling made her speech hard for my foreign chums to follow, although her stories were poor, and the set-up where the lady doctor trailed around her "fam" was vaguely misogynist.

    Tennant was the best actor to play the Doctor.

    Trivia: Capaldi is the only Doctor to have won an Oscar (as producer, not actor).

    And if RTD is so bloody clever, how come the credits misnamed the character as Doctor Who, and the titles show the Tardis careering around like the starship Enterprise? And why do they keep redesigning the daleks and Tardis? And breathe!
    I know Tennant Ten is technically the best, but I still have a soft spot for Matt Smith (from The Eleventh Hour to The Angels Take Manhattan(, and Peter Capaldi (from The Magician's Apprentice to Twice Upon a Time).

    Every decision taken during the Chibnall era was wrong. It's pointless pointing to a specific one, since it was just one large steaming pile of wrong. Jodie's interpretation was wrong. The redesigned Daleks were wrong. The fam were wrong. The CyberTimeLords were wrong. Flux was an enormous serialised wrong. The costume was wrong. The Sunny Delight Master was wrong. The Timeless Child made me cry with the wrongness. It was just rubbish from day one to day last.

    I’ve liked this but really want to like it ten times over. I’ve been a fan of Dr Who since the 1970’s. I’ve always been desperate to watch new WHO on TV right until Chibnall took over. So sad to not enjoy something that is an intimate part of my life.
    Dr Who peaked with The Happiness Patrol, a satire of late 80s Britain featuring an army of Margaret Thatcher stand-ins and an off-brand Bertie Bassett as the Big Bad.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0rEe8ultJ4

    It's all been downhill from there.
    I cannot agree. The gothic era of Baker (Pyramids of Mars, Brain of Morbius etc) was the peak for old who. And the new version has had some brilliant episodes (Blink, Silence in the Library).
    Early Pertwee for me, or the final full Hartnell season, peak classic Who.

    Gothic Baker was certainly excellent too. Talons of Weng Chiang with its Sherlock Holmes/Fu Manchu influence and Robots of Death being an Agatha Christie murder mystery in space being my highlights.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,904
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    This may be a waste of my allotted image, but I was genuinely surprised at the mere idea that a YIMBY or NIMBY group should be expected to take a position on this issue.

    The first question I ask anyone I don't know is always "So, what's your position on Gaza?".

    If I do know them, it's different. Instead I say "I just want to check, your position on Gaza hasn't changed has it?"

    Candidly, I can't imagine any other way to be.
    Gaza isn't really about Gaza at all, which very few give a fuck about.

    It's just social proof for Progressives.
    More seriously, I do find Gaza and Israel is an excellent test. If you are unable to acknowledge that two sets of people have both been wronged (Israeli citizens subject to rape, kidnapping and the occasional missile salvo, and Palestinians who have endured creeping invasion), then you are unable to handle nuance, and are not a serious person.

    By contrast, Ukraine is a much more clear and obvious case of good and evil.
    I'd quite like to see "If you are unable to acknowledge that two sets of people have both been wronged (Israeli citizens subject to rape, kidnapping and the occasional missile salvo, and Palestinians who have endured creeping invasion), then you are unable to handle nuance, and are not a serious person." as a banner header. Or indeed, an introductory piece of text for almost any circumstance, given the ubiquity with which Gaza creeps in.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,345
    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: Rishi Sunak is refusing to honour Piers Morgan’s £1000 charity bet as an asylum seeker was voluntarily sent to Rwanda

    @jamesrbuk
    Also, this smacks of bad staff work – this was absolutely going to come up in this interview, and they surely gamed it out. How was a multimillionaire PM refusing to donate £1,000 to charity the best outcome they could find?
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,345
    @robfordmancs

    Making the bet was already an unforced error (two very rich men joking about £1k as if it is pocket change). Sunak has managed to compound it, on day 1 of an election campaign.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,116
    Cookie said:

    FPT:

    I'm already shitting myself about the 10pm SJC exit poll.

    Anyone else feel the same?

    Not this time. Glumly resigned.

    I was fucking terrified last time though. The only news medium I could bring myself to watch was the £:$ exchange rates. If it failed to plummet, we were in the clear.

    I don't think I have ever felt so relieved in my life as when Labour failed to win the 2019 GE.

    They'll clearly win the 2024 one. And it will be shit. But nothing like as shit as them winning in 2019 would have been. And the obviously entirely hypothetical situation of a Conservative win would be not much to cheer.
    It’s still horrible to see a spread market come up saying 150 seats though?

    That’s losing 200 MPs! And 1906 was reduced to 156, so on the cusp as that record.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,358
    edited May 23

    Something I should really know but have never quite got my head around :blush:

    Can someone explain the difference between Parliament being prorogued and dissolved?

    Thanks!

    A dissolution of Parliament is for life*, prorogation is for Christmas.

    * Well, until the writ for new elections is issued and we go through the whole thing all over again.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,007
    Foxy said:

    Incidentally, we inhabit a hell of a bubble. I have had a busy day, amongst both patients and staff.

    No one has mentioned the GE or any politician, nor have I overheard anyone speaking of it.

    Mum thinks we're entering a six-week period of utter tedium :lol:
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,022

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Savanta have 44% saying Rishis launch in the rain went badly and..... um 35% think it went well

    See the public saw Rishi Sunak as the embodiment of the greatest Doctor ever, that's a win for Rishi.


    Tenant is a fecking arse. Get him off the thread
    That’s the Doctor.
    He's not MY doctor. He's no Eccleston
    i like them all

    I thought Peter Capaldi was a bit disappointing though
    Whittaker was terrible but that may be more down to the scripts.
    Whittaker's gabbling made her speech hard for my foreign chums to follow, although her stories were poor, and the set-up where the lady doctor trailed around her "fam" was vaguely misogynist.

    Tennant was the best actor to play the Doctor.

    Trivia: Capaldi is the only Doctor to have won an Oscar (as producer, not actor).

    And if RTD is so bloody clever, how come the credits misnamed the character as Doctor Who, and the titles show the Tardis careering around like the starship Enterprise? And why do they keep redesigning the daleks and Tardis? And breathe!
    I know Tennant Ten is technically the best, but I still have a soft spot for Matt Smith (from The Eleventh Hour to The Angels Take Manhattan(, and Peter Capaldi (from The Magician's Apprentice to Twice Upon a Time).

    Every decision taken during the Chibnall era was wrong. It's pointless pointing to a specific one, since it was just one large steaming pile of wrong. Jodie's interpretation was wrong. The redesigned Daleks were wrong. The fam were wrong. The CyberTimeLords were wrong. Flux was an enormous serialised wrong. The costume was wrong. The Sunny Delight Master was wrong. The Timeless Child made me cry with the wrongness. It was just rubbish from day one to day last.

    I’ve liked this but really want to like it ten times over. I’ve been a fan of Dr Who since the 1970’s. I’ve always been desperate to watch new WHO on TV right until Chibnall took over. So sad to not enjoy something that is an intimate part of my life.
    Dr Who peaked with The Happiness Patrol, a satire of late 80s Britain featuring an army of Margaret Thatcher stand-ins and an off-brand Bertie Bassett as the Big Bad.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0rEe8ultJ4

    It's all been downhill from there.
    I cannot agree. The gothic era of Baker (Pyramids of Mars, Brain of Morbius etc) was the peak for old who. And the new version has had some brilliant episodes (Blink, Silence in the Library).
    Ah, Blink was the first one with the stone angel baddies, wasn't it? That scared me even as an adult.

    Sylvester McCoy remains my favourite Doctor, though, even if he did get more than his fair share of bad scripts and ridiculously low rent productions. Clownish at first, but darker and more manipulative as the series went on.
    The Cartmel master plan foreshadows the narrative arcs of modern Who. I think McCoy suffered from a lot of stuff.
    Not only that it set the template for the Virgin New adventures when the show was cancelled and they started a series of original novels.

    By the final McCoy series the show was really hitting its stride.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,658

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Meanwhile, in "once the election is called, that will focus minds" news,

    First @techneUK poll of the election

    Labour 45%
    Tory 19%
    Reform 14%
    LD 12%
    Green 5%

    First time the Tories have been under 20% with Techne.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1793712476816912724

    How quickly has campaign swingback kicked in previously?

    At least the Tories can't go any lower than 19%. Or maybe they can.
    CON would be on 50 seats on that poll!

    However there were polls showing similar LAB leads early in 1997 campaign.
    This is a new era. I reckon the Tories are gonna get the blame for EVERYTHING that has gone wrong since 2019. Not just Brexit (which is deserved), not just immigration and small boats (MORE than deserved) but also Covid, Ukraine, Gaza, inflation, Cameron, the Coalition, Clegg, student fees, litter, bad weather, my nan, your divorce, the decline of Bake Off, Man City winning too many times, kicking out Boris, the state of the high street, the state of your wife's face, your recent parking fine, you name it, the voters are going to blame the Govt for EVERYTHING and they are going to give this hapless bunch of spineless posho chancers the biggest kicking we have seen in British electoral history, out of sheer spite, venom, revenge and anger

    They should be thankful Farage bottled it, if he was in it, I reckon Reform could actually get more votes than the Tories. As it is I can EASILY see the Tories slipping under 100 seats
    The main factor in RefUK outpolling the Conservatives is not Farage but how many seats have candidates. imo Tice is whistling in the dark if he thinks they will run a full slate.
    RefUK have said they'll stand 630, so not quite a full slate. (Their allies, the TUV, are standing in all NI seats.)
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,282

    Something I should really know but have never quite got my head around :blush:

    Can someone explain the difference between Parliament being prorogued and dissolved?

    Thanks!

    Prorogue is like a temporary break - maybe like a break for adverts. Technically it is the end of a session.

    Dissolved is the end of that parliament. Everyone loses their seats. More like the end of the series.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,305
    kyf_100 said:

    Cicero said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LibDem seats are too high. Not *wildly* too high, but too high nonetheless.

    I am not a spread bettor, the downside is too much for me. I had a spread markets one once but traded out and slept better. One concern is on liquidity.

    So, take the LD spread. Its very unlikely that LDs will go below 10, and 15 would be a realistic minimum, so the maximum win is 22 times the stake. On the other side a 1997 style result could lose a similar sum. A Blue Wall blowout with collapsing Tory vote and LDs having a good election could conceivably reach 100 seats. Unlikely but possible. That would be 60 times the stake. The risks are just too asymmetrical for me.


    The Tories have given up. Hearing astonishing things in places like Surrey. Feels like this could be an election where the old rules get junked.
    The Conservatives have somehow managed to piss off absolutely everyone to the point you're left wondering who their natural constituency is.

    If you're an oldie, you probably don't like the way you can't get a GP appointment or a hip replacement without going private (or waiting til your leg falls off). Having to be bank of mum and dad for grown up kids in their 30s and 40s who are struggling. Money in savings accounts eroded by cost of living crisis, affecting less savvy pensioners too.

    Young-ish? Housing costs, spiralling rents, can't afford kids, zero job stability, lost opportunities to leave due to Brexit, too. Student loans following RPI which has shafted some. Leasehold trap has shafted first time buyers.

    Working age entering middle age? Insane childcare costs, wages failing to keep up with inflation, mortgage costs doubling. Plus huge numbers of middle class professionals getting laid off in the last year.

    Everyone - country feels like it's falling apart, schools literally falling apart, sewage being dumped into rivers, cost of sticking the heating on or doing a weekly shop has doubled. Life's little luxuries like a pint and a meal out with friends becoming unaffordable for many now. And the Conservatives droning on and on about endless culture war crap like Rwanda, trans and bashing disabled people on benefits, when most people are just struggling to survive.

    Will Labour be significantly better? Maybe not. But it feels hard for even the staunchest Conservative supporter to justify giving this lot another 5 years in government - they're out of ideas and need a long period in opposition to figure out why they've managed to alienate most demographics across the country.
    There is no justification for giving this lot another 5 years.

    But, no reason to hand Labour a gigantic majority.

    But, I’m unusual. I’ve never believed in cutting off my nose to spite my face.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105

    Something I should really know but have never quite got my head around :blush:

    Can someone explain the difference between Parliament being prorogued and dissolved?

    Thanks!

    Prorogation ends a session of Parliament, dissolution ends the Parliament.
This discussion has been closed.