politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ashcroft phone poll, like Populus this morning, has CON

Danny565 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Danny565 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Danny565 said:

taffys said:

Latest forecast update: Con 283, Lab 284, LD 24, SNP 33, UKIP 4

Election forecast UK have just forecast this (via twitter).

That looks like an ideal result to me. Complete gridlock, which will result in no further spending cuts being able to get through.

You seem to view spending cuts as a policy choice, rather than a necessity.

What do you say to the fact out national debt is approaching £1.5tn and increasing at almost £100bn a year?

Do you think we should raise taxes? Ignore it? Renege on it?

I think we should prioritise helping OUR schools and OUR health service and OUR poor people, rather than thinking the main priority is paying random dudes on trading floors in Shanghai.

I'm sure most people would agree with you. It still doesn't answer the question of how we will pay for it.

Burying your head in the sand, and refusing to face reality, isn't going to make the problem go away.

We can pay for it the same way as now. I'm not actually proposing INCREASES in spending, just maintaining at the levels we have now. If we can be running a deficit of this size now without the sky falling in and the bailiffs coming round to declare us bankrupt, we can self-evidently continue to do so.

We are only a few years off the interest payment on our debt being larger than the deficit. Just imagine all those lovely nurses, schools and aircraft carriers that we could have if we had run sound finances.

I wonder how much longer until the interest bill is larger than the NHS budget.

david_herdson said:

ThomasNashe said:

Alanbrooke.

just total bollocks.

If the structural deficit were down we'd be in surplus as this is the up side of the cycle.

I think that really gets to the heart of the matter. This government came in to power promising to eliminate the deficit, and they haven't. That has been due to declining tax revenues (as well as a failure to take on such unnecessary spend such as the whole panoply of OAP benefits). Instead we have had tax cuts at both ends of the scale (for the rich who already vote Con, and for the poor who'll probably vote either Lab or Ukip). The pensioners who've escaped the cuts aren't showing their gratitude either, as they head off into the arms of Farage. If they'd gone for genuine austerity, they'd have a coherent message to put across, and could in fact be doing a lot better than they are.

We shouldn't yet be in surplus - the economy is only been expanding for about 18 months. Even so, the deficit should ideally be about £40-50bn less than it is. Taking the decisions to have brought that about however would have probably pushed the economy back into recession in 2010-11, which wouldn't necessarily have been the wrong thing to do but would have been a very tight call. What it does mean is that significant spending reductions have to happen in the next 2-3 years to get things back on an even keel before the next global slowdown happens - if we have that long.

.
The tories promised to abolish the structural deficit not the cyclical one. Osborne extended the period because of the eurozone crisis and because he did not want to make more cuts against a background of eurorecession. The govt have in fact made good progress in cutting the structural deficit.

Flightpath said:

david_herdson said:

ThomasNashe said:

I think that really gets to the heart of the matter. This government came in to power promising to eliminate the deficit, and they haven't. That has been due to declining tax revenues (as well as a failure to take on such unnecessary spend such as the whole panoply of OAP benefits). Instead we have had tax cuts at both ends of the scale (for the rich who already vote Con, and for the poor who'll probably vote either Lab or Ukip). The pensioners who've escaped the cuts aren't showing their gratitude either, as they head off into the arms of Farage. If they'd gone for genuine austerity, they'd have a coherent message to put across, and could in fact be doing a lot better than they are.

We shouldn't yet be in surplus - the economy is only been expanding for about 18 months. Even so, the deficit should ideally be about £40-50bn less than it is. Taking the decisions to have brought that about however would have probably pushed the economy back into recession in 2010-11, which wouldn't necessarily have been the wrong thing to do but would have been a very tight call. What it does mean is that significant spending reductions have to happen in the next 2-3 years to get things back on an even keel before the next global slowdown happens - if we have that long.

.
The tories promised to abolish the structural deficit not the cyclical one. Osborne extended the period because of the eurozone crisis and because he did not want to make more cuts against a background of eurorecession. The govt have in fact made good progress in cutting the structural deficit.

Progress has been made but there is still a long way to go before the structural deficit is eliminated. That's why I said that this year's deficit should really be more in the order of £50-60bn.

I'm totally shocked by this, shocked.

The architect of Phil Woolas' make the white folks angry campaign is planning to stand as a UKIP candidate in Oldham next year.

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/former-agent-shamed-labour-mp-8153294

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm totally shocked by this, shocked. The architect of Phil Woolas' make the white folks angry campaign is planning to stand as a UKIP candidate in Oldham next year. http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/former-agent-shamed-labour-mp-8153294

Its what Keir Hardie would do. According to Hardie, the Lithuanian migrant workers in the mining industry had “filthy habits”, they lived off “garlic and oil”, and they were carriers of “the Black Death”.

I don't know about Black Friday this week, today looks like the blackest of black Mondays for the Tories ..... they really need a very good poll later this evening from The Sun/YouGov to lift their spirits.

another_richard said:

david_herdson said:

(previous posts deleted for space)

We shouldn't yet be in surplus - the economy is only been expanding for about 18 months. Even so, the deficit should ideally be about £40-50bn less than it is. Taking the decisions to have brought that about however would have probably pushed the economy back into recession in 2010-11, which wouldn't necessarily have been the wrong thing to do but would have been a very tight call. What it does mean is that significant spending reductions have to happen in the next 2-3 years to get things back on an even keel before the next global slowdown happens - if we have that long.

I told you a while back I pointed out there was likely to be another recession in from 2016 onwards; its good to see that you've lost your complacency on the issue.

Let me tell you something else - there is NO chance of significant spending reductions in the next few years. Instead all we'll get is magic money tree shaking and promises of yet more magic money tree shaking.

I don't remember who said it but my objection to the prediction of a recession next year was because the reasoning given was that 'they happen on average every 7 years so we're due one soon', which is an epic logical failure. Recessions happen for all sorts of reasons but clockwork timing isn't one (there is, as has long been noted, a business cycle which has a rhythm of sorts and its own natural dynamics but there is nothing inherent about the timings of its upswings and downturns; at one time it was believed to be linked to sun-spot activity!).

But yes, I am nervous about the global situation which will inevitably impact on the UK. I'm concerned about the imbalances in China, the on-going failure of the Eurozone to get out of recession, similarly Japan; I'm concerned about Britain's over-inflated housing market and to a lesser extent, financial markets; and there are other uncertainties, never mind unknown-unknowns such as wars, epidemics, acts of God and the like.

I disagree that there is no chance of further cuts. I don't think there's an option. One of the main reasons I'm so worried as things are is that the foot is still flat to the floor - QE, 0.5% interest rates, £100bn+ deficits - which leaves no space for meaningful action if things do go bad.

another_richard said:

Whatever happened to 'fixing the roof while the sun was shining' ?

Perhaps the roofer was too busy giving the magic money tree another shake.

Eh? You think the sun is shining?

May I suggest you read up a bit on world economic conditions. You could start here:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2846465/UK-businesses-optimistic-overseas-rivals-finds-Markit-report.html

It is true that the UK, under Osborne, is doing quite extraordinarily well compared with most of the rest of the developed world, but overall world conditions are dire, especially in our biggest markets in the Eurozone.

He's worse than Foot: Foot could make a speech.

If Ed was really as cr8p as you say, wouldn't labour 5% behind the tories in the polls, rather than 5% ahead??

Oliver_PB said:

When talking about the deficit, why do Conservative supporters selectively avoid mentioning 2.5% VAT increase, the biggest tax single increase in decades?

If you want to talk about 'selectively avoiding mentioning' this tax increase, perhaps you should point out that it was the biggest tax increase since Darling's bigger VAT increase a year and a bit earlier.

peter_from_putney said:

I don't know about Black Friday this week, today looks like the blackest of black Mondays for the Tories ..... they really need a very good poll later this evening from The Sun/YouGov to lift their spirits.

Not good but personally I'd see how the rest of the week pans out before getting overly concerned.

Being a moderately eurosceptic but pragmatic Tory myself it does seem we are being battered on all sides by our numerous opponents. I have faith we'll get there in the end but we need to be less distracted by the silly chiff-chaff of politics as we are then playing our opponents game.

NickPalmer said:

isam said:

If I win Islington S and Finsbury, will I be your MP?

No (Jeremy Corbyn is), but you'd be the MP for my current workplace. So if I lose and you win I might write you letters about animal experiments. Maybe you'd be SeanT's. I wouldn't get your hopes too far up, though - Emily is popular locally, judging by the reception when I've helped in by-elections.

Have you already been selected, or are you just going for it?

The times they are a changin'

Havent been selected yet, 8th Jan is D-Day

Richard_Nabavi said:

Oliver_PB said:

When talking about the deficit, why do Conservative supporters selectively avoid mentioning 2.5% VAT increase, the biggest tax single increase in decades?

If you want to talk about 'selectively avoiding mentioning' this tax increase, perhaps you should point out that it was the biggest tax increase since Darling's bigger VAT increase a year and a bit earlier.

The VAT rise was one of the best things this government has done.

With a country borrowing to overconsume as the UK does then increasing tax on imported consumer tat is an excellent idea.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Oliver_PB said:

When talking about the deficit, why do Conservative supporters selectively avoid mentioning 2.5% VAT increase, the biggest tax single increase in decades?

If you want to talk about 'selectively avoiding mentioning' this tax increase, perhaps you should point out that it was the biggest tax increase since Darling's bigger VAT increase a year and a bit earlier.

In terms of revenue, the VAT increase dwarfed the top rate of income tax.

...not that I'd selectively avoid mentioning the 50% tax band when it's a policy I'm in agreement with.

Of course, the right ideologically believe that the poorest should pay more tax while the richest should pay less.

taffys said:

He's worse than Foot: Foot could make a speech.

If Ed was really as cr8p as you say, wouldn't labour 5% behind the tories in the polls, rather than 5% ahead??

Labour was polling 45% earlier this parliament. Give it time, they will be 5% behind.

In any case, those two 5% polls are out of line with the majority of other recent ones. Either there's been a big sudden swing for no obvious reason, or we've just had a coincidence of two Labour-favourable polls released together.

Oh, and even with the SDP defections, Foot's Labour outpolled Thatcher's Tories through until the Falklands War.

CD13 said:

Nick P,

I had an interesting weekend in Copenhagen.

As always, very quiet and very un-citylike, but they have a strong NOTA group which is growing, and more right wing than Ukip, despite the Scandinavian background.

Although feminism is much less strident because the battle was won decades ago.

High taxes, high cost of living and high benefits, but they're doing something right. And yet ... just the beginnings of an irritation with the status quo.

Fair summary IMO. Denmark has always been less firmly ideological than Sweden - basically they just think social democracy sort of works so they're sort of relaxed about it (even when the government is nominally centre-right), but if things went really pear-shaped they wouldn't carry on regardless.

But it's still, on the whole, a healthy society (in my view).