Since it was worthy for someone to mention the scottish subsample I would like to point on two other subsamples with almost 2&3 times the size: Northern England, sample 126: LAB 42, UKIP 24, CON 22, LD 1(if that is real then bye bye Clegg, also CON 3rd behind UKIP)
Midlands, sample 137: CON 30, LAB 29, UKIP 24, LD 7 (UKIP just 6 points away from 1st place in an area with many marginals)
Since it was worthy for someone to mention the scottish subsample I would like to point on two other subsamples with almost 2&3 times the size: Northern England, sample 126: LAB 42, UKIP 24, CON 22, LD 1(if that is real then bye bye Clegg, also CON 3rd behind UKIP)
Midlands, sample 137: CON 30, LAB 29, UKIP 24, LD 7 (UKIP just 6 points away from 1st place in an area with many marginals)
Heh - Northern England is going to be rough for the Lib Dems, that's for sure.
Even if Labour come behind the Tories UK-wide (as I expect), I still think they'll have the most seats in Scotland. Scottish polls are NEVER reliable this far out, the huge swathe of people who switch between the SNP and Labour depending on what type of election it is don't really start focussing until an election is imminent.
Unfortunately that is copy paste talk from the praetorian Tories who say that UKIP is not a problem as their voters will come back to the Tories come election time.
It just seems to me that those "switchers" in Scotland automatically just tell the pollsters who they voted for in the most recent election (I'm defining the referendum as an election for the purposes of this), and only start thinking about one specific election when it's about to happen.
I wouldn't underestimate the fact that in 2010 Scottish Labour voters were voting for a 'local lad' (I could call him 'loon', but the uncharitable might draw unfavourable conclusions), whereas in 2015 they would be voting for a London Labour leader they rate significantly worse than a posh Tory PM which I still find astonishing.....
2 nonsense polls which bear no resemblance to what is happening in the real world.
Nope. On the high side of the Margin of Error for Labour is my guess, but the polls are entirely consistent with previous efforts by those companies. If you are talking about the overstating of Lab + Con by Populus though I think you're right.
Very poor scores for the Tories today. A Rochester hang over perhaps?
As I said a few weeks ago every time the Tories get close they seem to fall back again. I don't think I have seen a lead for them of more than 1% yet. 7% is looking an awfully long way away.
From Labour's perspective the EIC position must surely now be baked in. No matter how crap he shows himself to be it does not seem to make any difference because so few people think much of him anyway.
The Tories need to stop spending all their time laughing at Ed and focus on their considerable achievements on the economy in both growth and employment. They are being distracted by Ed's awfulness but I fear there are few votes left in this theme. Time to get serious about the real issues facing this country.
Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.
Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .
Mark of interest what are your expectations for the number of LD MPs after the next GE and what level of vote share? I am guessing under 30 MPs and 11% vote share.
36 to 40 MPs and 13-15% vote share .
With the LDs polling half your forecast, you are very optimistic on the turnaround at the GE in 6 months. It is almost double the current polling. If the LD figures have not moved into double figures consistently in February, I cannot see your numbers being achieved.
Very poor scores for the Tories today. A Rochester hang over perhaps?
As I said a few weeks ago every time the Tories get close they seem to fall back again. I don't think I have seen a lead for them of more than 1% yet. 7% is looking an awfully long way away.
O/t Blair has been given an award by Save the Children an someone's started a petition to get it withdrawn.
Iraqi children?
Is the top signature in a rather poor hand? The nights are long in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath - especially when you've told the wife you're giving up the day job.
The Tories need to stop spending all their time laughing at Ed and focus on their considerable achievements on the economy in both growth and employment. They are being distracted by Ed's awfulness but I fear there are few votes left in this theme. Time to get serious about the real issues facing this country.
But everyone's already aware of the good macroeconomic stats too, and have mostly dismissed them as irrelevant to their lives.
What they really need to be doing is proving it will be an "economic recovery for all", by going on the tax cuts they promised, and I would say maybe moving someone working-class into the Chancellor position (though I can't think of a suitable candidate). What definitely isn't going to work is just trumpeting meaningless tractor stats, and certainly not going on about how more austerity is necessary when people already feel they've suffered enough.
Given this poll, UKIP must be ahead of the Tories in large swathes of England.
That is true, even with a 9 point difference UK wide, the UKIP figure ex-London and Scotland is probably around 4-5 points higher while the Tory number is only about 1 point higher, which would close the gap considerably. There is a lot of promising ground for them in the Midlands as I suspected.
An independent panel has recommended that members of the Welsh Assembly should receive a pay increase of £10,000 after the next election in 2016.
Announcing the recommendation, remuneration board chair Sandy Blair said that when cuts to pensions are taken into account, the overall package increase would amount to 10.7%.
Currently an AM’s basic salary is £54,390, the proposal is for it to rise to £64,000 in 2016. Under the proposal, ministerial remuneration would go down slightly and the total remuneration of the First Minister, including pension is currently £167,450 – it is due, under the proposals to go down to £163,240.
Very poor scores for the Tories today. A Rochester hang over perhaps?
The Tories need to stop spending all their time laughing at Ed and focus on their considerable achievements on the economy in both growth and employment.
Indeed. The substance of last week's news was a heavy Tory defeat in a by election. The other thing wasn't news.
The Tories don't have any achievements of note on the economy. If you think they do, list them!
Deficit? Still high and going up. Level of Debt? Still rising. Unemployment? Masked by dreadful wages and insecure work. Growth? Only in last year - what was Osborne doing for three years? We know - arguing the toss with the EU over whether his pals in the City should have the bonuses capped or not. More signs of warped Tory priorities, just like the cut in the 50p rate of income tax.
The fact the Tories trumpet their awful economic record is great for Labour. Nobody believes a word the Tories say about the economy (other than their supporters on here).
The Tories are the Party of rich whingers (Myleene Klass) and purveyors of anti-social eyesores (White Van Dan).
Very Ed Miliband Labour - demonising the aspirational working class who want to better themselves....
That's Tories patronising the WWC again. It just comes too easily doesn't it?
The aspirational white working class are just as exasperated by anti social idiots putting up eyesores in their streets as everyone else.
Why do you assume they support the Tories? In R&S it was UKIP which won. The Tories are currently not the party of the WWC - whether they're anti-social idiots (c.BenM) or aspirational people upset by eyesores - that's part of their problem.
Looking back over the surveys, Ashcroft has only shown a Tory lead 5 times since 12th May and has the wildest fluctuations. Populus hasn't shown a Tory lead since 29th August. So in short neither poll means anything and OGH's wishful thinking of Tory disaster being imminent is just utter tosh.
If Labour starts winning lots of council by-election seats from the Tories instead of losing some the other way, then this supposed turnaround in the polls may have some credibility.
Very poor scores for the Tories today. A Rochester hang over perhaps?
As I said a few weeks ago every time the Tories get close they seem to fall back again. I don't think I have seen a lead for them of more than 1% yet. 7% is looking an awfully long way away.
From Labour's perspective the EIC position must surely now be baked in. No matter how crap he shows himself to be it does not seem to make any difference because so few people think much of him anyway.
The Tories need to stop spending all their time laughing at Ed and focus on their considerable achievements on the economy in both growth and employment. They are being distracted by Ed's awfulness but I fear there are few votes left in this theme. Time to get serious about the real issues facing this country.
IMHO the correct Tory strategy is to get a decent story and roadmap on immigration sorted by Christmas. That'll give candidates something to say to UKIP waverers in the final campaign.
In the New Year, they need to go hell for leather on leadership, stewardship of the economy and the sunny uplands on the horizon if we stick to the 'long-term economic plan'.
Major trip hazards include: further defectors, Ed Miliband quitting as leader or Winter "events" (major floods, brown outs or NHS crises) but if all that can be navigated that should be enough to win.
Since it was worthy for someone to mention the scottish subsample I would like to point on two other subsamples with almost 2&3 times the size: Northern England, sample 126: LAB 42, UKIP 24, CON 22, LD 1(if that is real then bye bye Clegg, also CON 3rd behind UKIP)
Midlands, sample 137: CON 30, LAB 29, UKIP 24, LD 7 (UKIP just 6 points away from 1st place in an area with many marginals)
The N Eng results bear out my sense of the mood on the ground.
The Tories are going to be wiped off the map up here, other than in the few safe seats like Ribble Valley, Skipton, Richmond.
I am starting to think that with the UKIP surge, the Tories will suffer a fate worse than in 1997.
Just earlier I posted that the average of the latest phone polls gave the Tories a smidgen of a lead, and then this happens. The polls can be hilarious sometimes.
One thing Mike has often said, partly no doubt as a result of the money that non-voters lost him at GE2010, is that there are people who say they will vote but then don't bother to turn out. He's suggested that concentrating on the views of people who definitely did vote last time. So I tried to do that with the Ashcroft data tables.
I calculated the party support levels on the assumption that the Nationalists and Others would get the 8% recorded by the poll, but that the only voters for the "main five" parties would be those who voted for the "main three" parties at GE2010. This gave me the following percentages (with changes on the initial figures).
This very rough methodology is harsh on UKIP and the Greens, because they did have people who voted for them at GE2010: 3% and 1% respectively. So what is more interesting is the relative change between Conservatives and Labour.
Given this poll, UKIP must be ahead of the Tories in large swathes of England.
That is true, even with a 9 point difference UK wide, the UKIP figure ex-London and Scotland is probably around 4-5 points higher while the Tory number is only about 1 point higher, which would close the gap considerably. There is a lot of promising ground for them in the Midlands as I suspected.
In the "I'd swerve a friend if they voted UKIP" index earlier, the midlands was the least anti UKIP area
People in the midlands don't send their mates to Coventry?
Well, we'll have to wait and see tonight's YouGov -- but I suppose it's POSSIBLE that the recent press coverage has given the impression that Labour's chances are evaporating, and has thus scared some lefties/poor people who were flirting with the Greens or UKIP back into "the fold" out of fear of the Tories getting in again. Though I'm still uneasy about Labour relying on that to happen.
The logic of that is that voting UKIP gives you europhile Labour remains true.
Very poor scores for the Tories today. A Rochester hang over perhaps?
The Tories need to stop spending all their time laughing at Ed and focus on their considerable achievements on the economy in both growth and employment.
Indeed. The substance of last week's news was a heavy Tory defeat in a by election. The other thing wasn't news.
The Tories don't have any achievements of note on the economy. If you think they do, list them!
Deficit? Still high and going up. Level of Debt? Still rising. Unemployment? Masked by dreadful wages and insecure work. Growth? Only in last year - what was Osborne doing for three years? We know - arguing the toss with the EU over whether his pals in the City should have the bonuses capped or not. More signs of warped Tory priorities, just like the cut in the 50p rate of income tax.
The fact the Tories trumpet their awful economic record is great for Labour. Nobody believes a word the Tories say about the economy (other than their supporters on here).
Now down to levels seen in the City boom of 2007/ Growth: highest in G7 this year and pretty respectable next. Historically better after the revisions. Employment: absolute record high, by the election there will be 2m more people employed in this country than there was in 2010. Has any government ever increased employment by more in a single Parliament? inflation: at record lows. So low as to be slightly worrying in fact. Deficit: down by 1/3 but I agree it is still too high. Investment: growing strongly.
Given what they inherited it is not much short of miraculous. It is true that real wages have fallen over this Parliament although that has been offset for most by the substantial increases in personal allowances. It is also true that a lot of people, nearly 1m, have been shaken out of comfortable public sector employment with more to come. It is also true that the careful policies of Osborne have meant that we still buy and spend too much causing a serious trade deficit. We are still living beyond our means. But still bordering on the miraculous when you look at what has happened to France and Italy amongst many others over the same period.
Looking back over the surveys, Ashcroft has only shown a Tory lead 5 times since 12th May and has the wildest fluctuations. Populus hasn't shown a Tory lead since 29th August. So in short neither poll means anything and OGH's wishful thinking of Tory disaster being imminent is just utter tosh.
If Labour starts winning lots of council by-election seats from the Tories instead of losing some the other way, then this supposed turnaround in the polls may have some credibility.
I'm sure Ashcroft has worked out which methodology suits him best.
"The former head of the Somerset Racial Equality Council has been convicted of fraud after stealing another man's identity. The man who claimed to be David Onamade was also found guilty of trying to claim benefits and possessing documents for use in connection with fraud. The jury at Taunton Crown Court heard he managed to get hold of the identity of the real David Onamade, 52, an autistic man from London. He was found guilty of all charges. The court was told he had lived with another man's identity for more than 20 years."
Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.
Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .
Mark of interest what are your expectations for the number of LD MPs after the next GE and what level of vote share? I am guessing under 30 MPs and 11% vote share.
36 to 40 MPs and 13-15% vote share .
With the LDs polling half your forecast, you are very optimistic on the turnaround at the GE in 6 months. It is almost double the current polling. If the LD figures have not moved into double figures consistently in February, I cannot see your numbers being achieved.
LDs currently on 7.1% in the latest weekly ELBOW (11 polls), their lowest score yet (ie. since the first ELBOW from 17th August).
Well, we'll have to wait and see tonight's YouGov -- but I suppose it's POSSIBLE that the recent press coverage has given the impression that Labour's chances are evaporating, and has thus scared some lefties/poor people who were flirting with the Greens or UKIP back into "the fold" out of fear of the Tories getting in again. Though I'm still uneasy about Labour relying on that to happen.
The logic of that is that voting UKIP gives you europhile Labour remains true.
Ashcroft had a bit on that. UKIP voters simply don't believe it. They're very likely to believe that, not only will Cameron remain as Prime Minister, but that he will win a majority at GE2015.
Unless you can change that then the argument does you no good.
... What definitely isn't going to work is just trumpeting meaningless tractor stats, and certainly not going on about how more austerity is necessary when people already feel they've suffered enough.
I agree that endless trumpeting of tractor stats is not likely to convince many people but if anyone thinks that austerity has run its course then they are going to be very disappointed regardless of who gets in next year. Tax increases are far more likely than tax cuts and some real cuts in public services are almost inevitable.
Still we will all be able to bask in the warm glow of giving away about £13bn in overseas aid even if we can't actually afford to heat our homes.
Given this poll, UKIP must be ahead of the Tories in large swathes of England.
That is true, even with a 9 point difference UK wide, the UKIP figure ex-London and Scotland is probably around 4-5 points higher while the Tory number is only about 1 point higher, which would close the gap considerably. There is a lot of promising ground for them in the Midlands as I suspected.
In the "I'd swerve a friend if they voted UKIP" index earlier, the midlands was the least anti UKIP area
People in the midlands don't send their mates to Coventry?
Looking back over the surveys, Ashcroft has only shown a Tory lead 5 times since 12th May and has the wildest fluctuations. Populus hasn't shown a Tory lead since 29th August. So in short neither poll means anything and OGH's wishful thinking of Tory disaster being imminent is just utter tosh.
If Labour starts winning lots of council by-election seats from the Tories instead of losing some the other way, then this supposed turnaround in the polls may have some credibility.
Exactly right
I do wonder why people put so much emphasis on polls, last week the tories were doing fine in polls, nothing has changed.
I never believed the polls which showed a huge tory lead at the last election as their performance in the local elections didn't match the polls.Now if you look at the tories performance in local elections over recent weeks thet have held on to most of their seats,often increasing theri vote share and have even won some off of labour. The importance given to polls on this site which are often vastly different to a poll taken only a week before when nothing has changed does surprise me. Just look at the comments last week about how good the polls were for the tories and how bad they were for labour and now a week later the comments are totally opposite. Its a bit silly.
Mr. Llama, austerity could end. It's possible Miliband will become PM, and we'll see a joyless re-enactment of the French folly Hollande has embarked upon.
Given this poll, UKIP must be ahead of the Tories in large swathes of England.
That is true, even with a 9 point difference UK wide, the UKIP figure ex-London and Scotland is probably around 4-5 points higher while the Tory number is only about 1 point higher, which would close the gap considerably. There is a lot of promising ground for them in the Midlands as I suspected.
In the "I'd swerve a friend if they voted UKIP" index earlier, the midlands was the least anti UKIP area
People in the midlands don't send their mates to Coventry?
That's where I'm posting from right now
People from London do send their friends to Coventry for voting UKIP, anecdote and polling data back it up!
Well, we'll have to wait and see tonight's YouGov -- but I suppose it's POSSIBLE that the recent press coverage has given the impression that Labour's chances are evaporating, and has thus scared some lefties/poor people who were flirting with the Greens or UKIP back into "the fold" out of fear of the Tories getting in again. Though I'm still uneasy about Labour relying on that to happen.
The logic of that is that voting UKIP gives you europhile Labour remains true.
Ashcroft had a bit on that. UKIP voters simply don't believe it. They're very likely to believe that, not only will Cameron remain as Prime Minister, but that he will win a majority at GE2015.
Unless you can change that then the argument does you no good.
I can well believe that kippers are about as closed minded as any typical cultist. The fact is that voting UKIP and so splitting the right wing vote will gift us a Europhile Labour govt. The quality of UKIP candidates in the election is hardly likely to encourage enough people to vote them into winning any seats but since the object of UKIP is to destroy the tories so they can replace them it's inevitable that they will split the opposition to Labour. Its possible that UKIP will effectively suck the poision out of the tory image and the tories will get more centrist votes. I'm not sure this will be enough if the tribal Labour vote holds firm as suggested.
"The former head of the Somerset Racial Equality Council has been convicted of fraud after stealing another man's identity. The man who claimed to be David Onamade was also found guilty of trying to claim benefits and possessing documents for use in connection with fraud. The jury at Taunton Crown Court heard he managed to get hold of the identity of the real David Onamade, 52, an autistic man from London. He was found guilty of all charges. The court was told he had lived with another man's identity for more than 20 years."
Given this poll, UKIP must be ahead of the Tories in large swathes of England.
That is true, even with a 9 point difference UK wide, the UKIP figure ex-London and Scotland is probably around 4-5 points higher while the Tory number is only about 1 point higher, which would close the gap considerably. There is a lot of promising ground for them in the Midlands as I suspected.
In the "I'd swerve a friend if they voted UKIP" index earlier, the midlands was the least anti UKIP area
People in the midlands don't send their mates to Coventry?
That's where I'm posting from right now
People from London do send their friends to Coventry for voting UKIP, anecdote and polling data back it up!
But as you saw on Friday I'm back in London at weekends
Stunning poll. I really expected Labour to have taken a big hit after Friday. Obviously, Ed's a wiser man than me. Way to go: keep respecting them white vans!
Very poor scores for the Tories today. A Rochester hang over perhaps?
The Tories need to stop spending all their time laughing at Ed and focus on their considerable achievements on the economy in both growth and employment.
Indeed. The substance of last week's news was a heavy Tory defeat in a by election. The other thing wasn't news.
The Tories don't have any achievements of note on the economy. If you think they do, list them!
Deficit? Still high and going up. Level of Debt? Still rising. Unemployment? Masked by dreadful wages and insecure work. Growth? Only in last year - what was Osborne doing for three years? We know - arguing the toss with the EU over whether his pals in the City should have the bonuses capped or not. More signs of warped Tory priorities, just like the cut in the 50p rate of income tax.
The fact the Tories trumpet their awful economic record is great for Labour. Nobody believes a word the Tories say about the economy (other than their supporters on here).
Now down to levels seen in the City boom of 2007/ Growth: highest in G7 this year and pretty respectable next. Historically better after the revisions. Employment: absolute record high, by the election there will be 2m more people employed in this country than there was in 2010. Has any government ever increased employment by more in a single Parliament? inflation: at record lows. So low as to be slightly worrying in fact. Deficit: down by 1/3 but I agree it is still too high. Investment: growing strongly.
Given what they inherited it is not much short of miraculous. It is true that real wages have fallen over this Parliament although that has been offset for most by the substantial increases in personal allowances. It is also true that a lot of people, nearly 1m, have been shaken out of comfortable public sector employment with more to come. It is also true that the careful policies of Osborne have meant that we still buy and spend too much causing a serious trade deficit. We are still living beyond our means. But still bordering on the miraculous when you look at what has happened to France and Italy amongst many others over the same period.
The structural deficit is down considerably. Wages are also constrained by new mandatory pensions (payments by employer and employeee) introduced under this govt but formulated by Labour.
"The former head of the Somerset Racial Equality Council has been convicted of fraud after stealing another man's identity. The man who claimed to be David Onamade was also found guilty of trying to claim benefits and possessing documents for use in connection with fraud. The jury at Taunton Crown Court heard he managed to get hold of the identity of the real David Onamade, 52, an autistic man from London. He was found guilty of all charges. The court was told he had lived with another man's identity for more than 20 years."
"The former head of the Somerset Racial Equality Council has been convicted of fraud after stealing another man's identity. The man who claimed to be David Onamade was also found guilty of trying to claim benefits and possessing documents for use in connection with fraud. The jury at Taunton Crown Court heard he managed to get hold of the identity of the real David Onamade, 52, an autistic man from London. He was found guilty of all charges. The court was told he had lived with another man's identity for more than 20 years."
... What definitely isn't going to work is just trumpeting meaningless tractor stats, and certainly not going on about how more austerity is necessary when people already feel they've suffered enough.
I agree that endless trumpeting of tractor stats is not likely to convince many people but if anyone thinks that austerity has run its course then they are going to be very disappointed regardless of who gets in next year. Tax increases are far more likely than tax cuts and some real cuts in public services are almost inevitable.
Still we will all be able to bask in the warm glow of giving away about £13bn in overseas aid even if we can't actually afford to heat our homes.
But it makes the metropolitan elite feel better. I once saw a QT where this was raised. Members of the panel could not outdo each other enough in how good it was to give this money away.
"Turkey president Erdogan: Women are not equal to men"
Mr Dancer. Looks like Mr Ataturk will be spinning in his grave.
According to that report, he has lashed out against births by C-section, though what his medical qualifications are is not reported. Still, his views on women are pretty much par for the course in the Islamic world, indeed, probably required by the Koran (though I'm willing to be corrected). So why are we surprised?
Very poor scores for the Tories today. A Rochester hang over perhaps?
The Tories need to stop spending all their time laughing at Ed and focus on their considerable achievements on the economy in both growth and employment.
Indeed. The substance of last week's news was a heavy Tory defeat in a by election. The other thing wasn't news.
The Tories don't have any achievements of note on the economy. If you think they do, list them!
Deficit? Still high and going up. Level of Debt? Still rising. Unemployment? Masked by dreadful wages and insecure work. Growth? Only in last year - what was Osborne doing for three years? We know - arguing the toss with the EU over whether his pals in the City should have the bonuses capped or not. More signs of warped Tory priorities, just like the cut in the 50p rate of income tax.
The fact the Tories trumpet their awful economic record is great for Labour. Nobody believes a word the Tories say about the economy (other than their supporters on here).
Now down to levels seen in the City boom of 2007/ Growth: highest in G7 this year and pretty respectable next. Historically better after the revisions. Employment: absolute record high, by the election there will be 2m more people employed in this country than there was in 2010. Has any government ever increased employment by more in a single Parliament? inflation: at record lows. So low as to be slightly worrying in fact. Deficit: down by 1/3 but I agree it is still too high. Investment: growing strongly.
Given what they inherited it is not much short of miraculous. It is true that real wages have fallen over this Parliament although that has been offset for most by the substantial increases in personal allowances. It is also true that a lot of people, nearly 1m, have been shaken out of comfortable public sector employment with more to come. It is also true that the careful policies of Osborne have meant that we still buy and spend too much causing a serious trade deficit. We are still living beyond our means. But still bordering on the miraculous when you look at what has happened to France and Italy amongst many others over the same period.
The structural deficit is down considerably. Wages are also constrained by new mandatory pensions (payments by employer and employeee) introduced under this govt but formulated by Labour.
just total bollocks.
If the structural deficit were down we'd be in surplus as this is the up side of the cycle.
"The former head of the Somerset Racial Equality Council has been convicted of fraud after stealing another man's identity. The man who claimed to be David Onamade was also found guilty of trying to claim benefits and possessing documents for use in connection with fraud. The jury at Taunton Crown Court heard he managed to get hold of the identity of the real David Onamade, 52, an autistic man from London. He was found guilty of all charges. The court was told he had lived with another man's identity for more than 20 years."
Miss Cyclefree, perhaps because Turkey is sliding away from being an example of how country can be both modern and Muslim. It seems to be drifting from secular democracy towards an increasingly Islamist approach.
I have always understood the term structural deficit to mean that element that remained after stripping out payments for one-off or temporary events (e.g. increased welfare spending during a recession). Given that the economy is in a period of growth and employment has never been so high one wonders what one-off or temporary effects are still present in HMG spending? Most of the current deficit looks structural.
If Ed Miliband had announced yesterday that he is planning to replace his campaign battle bus with a white van, get himself a tattoo and emblazon his large house in north London with 10 cross of St George flags, it would not have come as a shock. Such is Labour’s panic this weekend that it seems the party’s high command will do or say anything just to prove that it is not contemptuous of “White Van Man” and English patriotism.
Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.
Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .
Mark of interest what are your expectations for the number of LD MPs after the next GE and what level of vote share? I am guessing under 30 MPs and 11% vote share.
36 to 40 MPs and 13-15% vote share .
With the LDs polling half your forecast, you are very optimistic on the turnaround at the GE in 6 months. It is almost double the current polling. If the LD figures have not moved into double figures consistently in February, I cannot see your numbers being achieved.
LDs currently on 7.1% in the latest weekly ELBOW (11 polls), their lowest score yet (ie. since the first ELBOW from 17th August).
Sunil, thanks. When does the Lib Dem recovery happen? June?
I have always understood the term structural deficit to mean that element that remained after stripping out payments for one-off or temporary events (e.g. increased welfare spending during a recession). Given that the economy is in a period of growth and employment has never been so high one wonders what one-off or temporary effects are still present in HMG spending? Most of the current deficit looks structural.
quite young Llama.
how people can be such arses when the facts say we're in the shit is beyond me.
"The former head of the Somerset Racial Equality Council has been convicted of fraud after stealing another man's identity. The man who claimed to be David Onamade was also found guilty of trying to claim benefits and possessing documents for use in connection with fraud. The jury at Taunton Crown Court heard he managed to get hold of the identity of the real David Onamade, 52, an autistic man from London. He was found guilty of all charges. The court was told he had lived with another man's identity for more than 20 years."
Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.
Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .
Mark of interest what are your expectations for the number of LD MPs after the next GE and what level of vote share? I am guessing under 30 MPs and 11% vote share.
36 to 40 MPs and 13-15% vote share .
With the LDs polling half your forecast, you are very optimistic on the turnaround at the GE in 6 months. It is almost double the current polling. If the LD figures have not moved into double figures consistently in February, I cannot see your numbers being achieved.
I know you are one of those who puts his hands over his ears and goes la la la at the ICM ( Gold Standard ) polls but they have Lib Dems at 11% not far off my forecast . As for quoting sub samples showing Lib Dems at 1% in the North , including a sub sample like that will throw the whole poll out . The Lib Dems will get 5% of the vote in the North in just the parliamentary seats that they already have in the North of England ..
Excellent polls to ensure the pressure on the LotO is relieved and it may be said by some that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
In case you haven't seen it, ELBOW for you, sir! twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/536882999305179136
Thank you.
However your joint has little to do with the reality of next May that will confirm PBers who seriously thought Mr Miliband would be traversing the portals of 10 Downing Street as Her Majesty's First Minister are in expeditious need of psychiatric treatment.
Miss Cyclefree, perhaps because Turkey is sliding away from being an example of how country can be both modern and Muslim. It seems to be drifting from secular democracy towards an increasingly Islamist approach.
Indeed - and that fact is a depressing one since if that is the case then it perhaps does not bode well for our own Muslim communities. There is some evidence that some in the younger generations are becoming attracted to an Islamist approach, despite - or perhaps because of - being born and living in secular democracies.
Whether this is caused by particular events and will fade or disappear or whether this is a long-term change is a very important question - and one to which I do not have the answer.
If the structural deficit were down we'd be in surplus as this is the up side of the cycle.
I think that really gets to the heart of the matter. This government came in to power promising to eliminate the deficit, and they haven't. That has been due to declining tax revenues (as well as a failure to take on such unnecessary spend such as the whole panoply of OAP benefits). Instead we have had tax cuts at both ends of the scale (for the rich who already vote Con, and for the poor who'll probably vote either Lab or Ukip). The pensioners who've escaped the cuts aren't showing their gratitude either, as they head off into the arms of Farage. If they'd gone for genuine austerity, they'd have a coherent message to put across, and could in fact be doing a lot better than they are.
Difficult not to feel depressed about the state of things after May's speech today. No wonder people are turning to UKIP in this downbeat climate. No one in politics seems to have anything positive to say.
Excellent polls to ensure the pressure on the LotO is relieved and it may be said by some that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
In case you haven't seen it, ELBOW for you, sir! twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/536882999305179136
Thank you.
However your joint has little to do with the reality of next May that will confirm PBers who seriously thought Mr Miliband would be traversing the portals of 10 Downing Street as Her Majesty's First Minister are in expeditious need of psychiatric treatment.
you know Jack sometimes I think you believe Ed Miliband will never be prime minister
If the structural deficit were down we'd be in surplus as this is the up side of the cycle.
---
I think that really gets to the heart of the matter. This government came in to power promising to eliminate the deficit, and they haven't. That has been due to declining tax revenues (as well as a failure to take on such unnecessary spend such as the whole panoply of OAP benefits). Instead we have had tax cuts at both ends of the scale (for the rich who already vote Con, and for the poor who'll probably vote either Lab or Ukip). The pensioners who've escaped the cuts aren't showing their gratitude either, as they head off into the arms of Farage. If they'd gone for genuine austerity, they'd have a coherent message to put across, and could in fact be doing a lot better than they are.
They'd never have got "genuine austerity" past the Lib Dems.
If the structural deficit were down we'd be in surplus as this is the up side of the cycle.
---
I think that really gets to the heart of the matter. This government came in to power promising to eliminate the deficit, and they haven't. That has been due to declining tax revenues (as well as a failure to take on such unnecessary spend such as the whole panoply of OAP benefits). Instead we have had tax cuts at both ends of the scale (for the rich who already vote Con, and for the poor who'll probably vote either Lab or Ukip). The pensioners who've escaped the cuts aren't showing their gratitude either, as they head off into the arms of Farage. If they'd gone for genuine austerity, they'd have a coherent message to put across, and could in fact be doing a lot better than they are.
They'd never have got "genuine austerity" past the Lib Dems.
Nonsense. It underpinned the whole ethos of the coalition. Remember Vince and his 'elephant in the room'.
If the structural deficit were down we'd be in surplus as this is the up side of the cycle.
---
I think that really gets to the heart of the matter. This government came in to power promising to eliminate the deficit, and they haven't. That has been due to declining tax revenues (as well as a failure to take on such unnecessary spend such as the whole panoply of OAP benefits). Instead we have had tax cuts at both ends of the scale (for the rich who already vote Con, and for the poor who'll probably vote either Lab or Ukip). The pensioners who've escaped the cuts aren't showing their gratitude either, as they head off into the arms of Farage. If they'd gone for genuine austerity, they'd have a coherent message to put across, and could in fact be doing a lot better than they are.
They'd never have got "genuine austerity" past the Lib Dems.
oh really that's just so pathetic.
are you saying the LDs don't want things, that they won't cut a deal on things they value?
simply put camerons crap at politics as he could have haggled better with his partners and had something to show for it..
"The former head of the Somerset Racial Equality Council has been convicted of fraud after stealing another man's identity. The man who claimed to be David Onamade was also found guilty of trying to claim benefits and possessing documents for use in connection with fraud. The jury at Taunton Crown Court heard he managed to get hold of the identity of the real David Onamade, 52, an autistic man from London. He was found guilty of all charges. The court was told he had lived with another man's identity for more than 20 years."
If the structural deficit were down we'd be in surplus as this is the up side of the cycle.
---
I think that really gets to the heart of the matter. This government came in to power promising to eliminate the deficit, and they haven't. That has been due to declining tax revenues (as well as a failure to take on such unnecessary spend such as the whole panoply of OAP benefits). Instead we have had tax cuts at both ends of the scale (for the rich who already vote Con, and for the poor who'll probably vote either Lab or Ukip). The pensioners who've escaped the cuts aren't showing their gratitude either, as they head off into the arms of Farage. If they'd gone for genuine austerity, they'd have a coherent message to put across, and could in fact be doing a lot better than they are.
They'd never have got "genuine austerity" past the Lib Dems.
Nonsense. It underpinned the whole ethos of the coalition. Remember Vince and his 'elephant in the room'.
I remember his nuclear weapon
Vince Cable: I have the nuclear option, it's like fighting a war
... there is a constant battle going on behind the scenes ...
Excess council workers sick days complements 18% rises for Welsh AMs
Almost 80 workers at Wales’ largest council have been sacked over their sickness record in the last year, it’s been revealed.
According to a performance report at Cardiff council, a total of 77 employees lost their jobs because of their sickness absence.
It also reported that the average employee at the local authority calls in sick for 10 days every year – a statistic branded “frightening” by councillors.
According to chief executive Paul Orders’ report, the number of dismissals relating to sickness absence increased by 40% during the first half of Mr Orders said: “The rate of improvement is insufficient and has highlighted a degree of noncompliance with the corporate policy in regard to return to work interviews and trigger stage interviews.”........
The council anticipated its employees would each take nine days of sickness leave this year, but figures now suggest the average employee will have 10.16 sick days by the end of 2014.
Figures in the cabinet paper reveal that the department with the highest rate of sickness absence is environment.
In this department, employees called in sick on eight days in the second quarter of the year and projections now suggest they will take 17 sick days each by the end of 2014.
Other departments with high levels of sickness absence include health and social care (17.37 sick days a year) and children’s services (15.43 days).
The departments with the lowest levels of sickness absence are democracy (3.87 days) and economic (3.88 days).
Excellent polls to ensure the pressure on the LotO is relieved and it may be said by some that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
In case you haven't seen it, ELBOW for you, sir! twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/536882999305179136
Thank you.
However your joint has little to do with the reality of next May that will confirm PBers who seriously thought Mr Miliband would be traversing the portals of 10 Downing Street as Her Majesty's First Minister are in expeditious need of psychiatric treatment.
Latest forecast update: Con 283, Lab 284, LD 24, SNP 33, UKIP 4
Election forecast UK have just forecast this (via twitter).
That looks like an ideal result to me. Complete gridlock, which will result in no further spending cuts being able to get through.
I'm not sure that a result returning nearly 600 MPs from parties supporting spending cuts will result in no further spending cuts.
A party that isn't in government is not going to be willing to put their name to specific cuts; even if they say they're notionally in favour of austerity, they'll try and have it both ways by saying that the government is cutting the wrong things.
If the structural deficit were down we'd be in surplus as this is the up side of the cycle.
---
I think that really gets to the heart of the matter. This government came in to power promising to eliminate the deficit, and they haven't. That has been due to declining tax revenues (as well as a failure to take on such unnecessary spend such as the whole panoply of OAP benefits). Instead we have had tax cuts at both ends of the scale (for the rich who already vote Con, and for the poor who'll probably vote either Lab or Ukip). The pensioners who've escaped the cuts aren't showing their gratitude either, as they head off into the arms of Farage. If they'd gone for genuine austerity, they'd have a coherent message to put across, and could in fact be doing a lot better than they are.
They'd never have got "genuine austerity" past the Lib Dems.
oh really that's just so pathetic.
are you saying the LDs don't want things, that they won't cut a deal on things they value?
simply put camerons crap at politics as he could have haggled better with his partners and had something to show for it..
Of course the LDs want things, but the point was about genuine austerity. By the nature of compromise the Tories could never have delivered that in a coalition.
Miss Cyclefree, perhaps because Turkey is sliding away from being an example of how country can be both modern and Muslim. It seems to be drifting from secular democracy towards an increasingly Islamist approach.
Indeed - and that fact is a depressing one since if that is the case then it perhaps does not bode well for our own Muslim communities. There is some evidence that some in the younger generations are becoming attracted to an Islamist approach, despite - or perhaps because of - being born and living in secular democracies.
Whether this is caused by particular events and will fade or disappear or whether this is a long-term change is a very important question - and one to which I do not have the answer.
The secular religions of socialism and nationalism have run out of steam - see the Labour Party for details.
The evidence from history is that religions are more durable than political ideologies, mainly because of their very long time horizons.
Stunning poll. I really expected Labour to have taken a big hit after Friday. Obviously, Ed's a wiser man than me. Way to go: keep respecting them white vans!
lol. Based on a few hundred conversations over the weekend, I think what's happening is this:
(1) The Labour vote is, despite various speculations to the contrary, quite close to the hard core - people who voted Gordon plus Red Liberals who loathe the Coailtion. Both groups are pretty immune to Mail/Sun campaigns.
(2) Views on Ed's leadership are priced into the Labour vote. Labour voters either like him or have decided to accept him as the price of getting the Tories out. But in any case they dislike the Tories, the Sun and the Mail more, so Dave and the media sneering about Mylene simply doesn't work with them (though it may well echo with people who weren't going to vote Labour anyway).
(3) The strategic error the Tories have been making for some time is to focus almost entirely on attack. UKIP are fruitloops, the LibDems are useless, you've gotta stop Ed. People pick up the Millwall flavour ("Everyone hates us, we don't care") and feel alienated. If they're right-alienated they go UKIP, if they're left-alienated they go Labour. Does Cameron stand for anything in particular?
The fact is that voting UKIP and so splitting the right wing vote will gift us a Europhile Labour govt.
In quite a few constituencies, including mine, both Tory and Labour candidates are strongly pro-EU. In fact we've had Europhile MPs for the last 40 years.
I canvassed a couple the other day. The bloke came out and said pugnaciously: "We're voting UKIP, mate. I've talked to the wife and I tell you, we're never voting Labour or Tory again! " Behind him, his wife silently appeared and ostentatiously rolled her eyes. I have no idea who she'll vote for, and in the circs thought it more tactful not to ask...
Stunning poll. I really expected Labour to have taken a big hit after Friday. Obviously, Ed's a wiser man than me. Way to go: keep respecting them white vans!
lol. Based on a few hundred conversations over the weekend, I think what's happening is this:
Snip
If I win Islington S and Finsbury, will I be your MP?
Comments
Northern England, sample 126:
LAB 42, UKIP 24, CON 22, LD 1(if that is real then bye bye Clegg, also CON 3rd behind UKIP)
Midlands, sample 137:
CON 30, LAB 29, UKIP 24, LD 7 (UKIP just 6 points away from 1st place in an area with many marginals)
There is, of course, a twitter storm about this...
How the EU's #VATMOSS is the end of small enterprise in Britain
http://idea15.wordpress.com/2014/11/24/how-vatmoss-is-the-end-of-small-enterprise-in-britain-and-how-we-can-change-it/?utm_content=bufferfb2a2&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
The decision ahead for microenterprises is not about how to alter sales and administration to comply with the changes; it is whether to continue trading at all.
All these changes are well within the margin of error and are not significant in themselves.
As I said a few weeks ago every time the Tories get close they seem to fall back again. I don't think I have seen a lead for them of more than 1% yet. 7% is looking an awfully long way away.
From Labour's perspective the EIC position must surely now be baked in. No matter how crap he shows himself to be it does not seem to make any difference because so few people think much of him anyway.
The Tories need to stop spending all their time laughing at Ed and focus on their considerable achievements on the economy in both growth and employment. They are being distracted by Ed's awfulness but I fear there are few votes left in this theme. Time to get serious about the real issues facing this country.
The aspirational white working class are just as exasperated by anti social idiots putting up eyesores in their streets as everyone else.
What they really need to be doing is proving it will be an "economic recovery for all", by going on the tax cuts they promised, and I would say maybe moving someone working-class into the Chancellor position (though I can't think of a suitable candidate). What definitely isn't going to work is just trumpeting meaningless tractor stats, and certainly not going on about how more austerity is necessary when people already feel they've suffered enough.
There is a lot of promising ground for them in the Midlands as I suspected.
An independent panel has recommended that members of the Welsh Assembly should receive a pay increase of £10,000 after the next election in 2016.
Announcing the recommendation, remuneration board chair Sandy Blair said that when cuts to pensions are taken into account, the overall package increase would amount to 10.7%.
Currently an AM’s basic salary is £54,390, the proposal is for it to rise to £64,000 in 2016. Under the proposal, ministerial remuneration would go down slightly and the total remuneration of the First Minister, including pension is currently £167,450 – it is due, under the proposals to go down to £163,240.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/assembly-members-pay-rise-10000-8165935
The Tories don't have any achievements of note on the economy. If you think they do, list them!
Deficit? Still high and going up. Level of Debt? Still rising. Unemployment? Masked by dreadful wages and insecure work. Growth? Only in last year - what was Osborne doing for three years? We know - arguing the toss with the EU over whether his pals in the City should have the bonuses capped or not. More signs of warped Tory priorities, just like the cut in the 50p rate of income tax.
The fact the Tories trumpet their awful economic record is great for Labour. Nobody believes a word the Tories say about the economy (other than their supporters on here).
What is Ashcrofts real motive?
If Labour starts winning lots of council by-election seats from the Tories instead of losing some the other way, then this supposed turnaround in the polls may have some credibility.
In the New Year, they need to go hell for leather on leadership, stewardship of the economy and the sunny uplands on the horizon if we stick to the 'long-term economic plan'.
Major trip hazards include: further defectors, Ed Miliband quitting as leader or Winter "events" (major floods, brown outs or NHS crises) but if all that can be navigated that should be enough to win.
The Tories are going to be wiped off the map up here, other than in the few safe seats like Ribble Valley, Skipton, Richmond.
I am starting to think that with the UKIP surge, the Tories will suffer a fate worse than in 1997.
One thing Mike has often said, partly no doubt as a result of the money that non-voters lost him at GE2010, is that there are people who say they will vote but then don't bother to turn out. He's suggested that concentrating on the views of people who definitely did vote last time. So I tried to do that with the Ashcroft data tables.
I calculated the party support levels on the assumption that the Nationalists and Others would get the 8% recorded by the poll, but that the only voters for the "main five" parties would be those who voted for the "main three" parties at GE2010. This gave me the following percentages (with changes on the initial figures).This very rough methodology is harsh on UKIP and the Greens, because they did have people who voted for them at GE2010: 3% and 1% respectively. So what is more interesting is the relative change between Conservatives and Labour.
People in the midlands don't send their mates to Coventry?
The No. 1 Tory target seat in Scotland is West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine (Fitta lass territory):
Result 2010:
LD 17,362
Con 13,678
SNP 7,086
Lab 6,159
BNP 513
UKIP 397
Current best prices:
SNP 11/10
LD 15/8
Con 5/2
100 bar
If Cameron can't win shoo-in seats like this, against non-entities like Bob Smith, then he is out on his arse.
Now down to levels seen in the City boom of 2007/
Growth: highest in G7 this year and pretty respectable next. Historically better after the revisions.
Employment: absolute record high, by the election there will be 2m more people employed in this country than there was in 2010. Has any government ever increased employment by more in a single Parliament?
inflation: at record lows. So low as to be slightly worrying in fact.
Deficit: down by 1/3 but I agree it is still too high.
Investment: growing strongly.
Given what they inherited it is not much short of miraculous. It is true that real wages have fallen over this Parliament although that has been offset for most by the substantial increases in personal allowances. It is also true that a lot of people, nearly 1m, have been shaken out of comfortable public sector employment with more to come. It is also true that the careful policies of Osborne have meant that we still buy and spend too much causing a serious trade deficit. We are still living beyond our means. But still bordering on the miraculous when you look at what has happened to France and Italy amongst many others over the same period.
"The former head of the Somerset Racial Equality Council has been convicted of fraud after stealing another man's identity.
The man who claimed to be David Onamade was also found guilty of trying to claim benefits and possessing documents for use in connection with fraud.
The jury at Taunton Crown Court heard he managed to get hold of the identity of the real David Onamade, 52, an autistic man from London.
He was found guilty of all charges.
The court was told he had lived with another man's identity for more than 20 years."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-30173915
Unless you can change that then the argument does you no good.
Still we will all be able to bask in the warm glow of giving away about £13bn in overseas aid even if we can't actually afford to heat our homes.
I do wonder why people put so much emphasis on polls, last week the tories were doing fine in polls, nothing has changed.
I never believed the polls which showed a huge tory lead at the last election as their performance in the local elections didn't match the polls.Now if you look at the tories performance in local elections over recent weeks thet have held on to most of their seats,often increasing theri vote share and have even won some off of labour. The importance given to polls on this site which are often vastly different to a poll taken only a week before when nothing has changed does surprise me. Just look at the comments last week about how good the polls were for the tories and how bad they were for labour and now a week later the comments are totally opposite. Its a bit silly.
And then we'll need Austerity 2: Austere Harder.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30183711
"Turkey president Erdogan: Women are not equal to men"
The tories do look horribly divided, on the evidence of the latest polls.
The fact is that voting UKIP and so splitting the right wing vote will gift us a Europhile Labour govt.
The quality of UKIP candidates in the election is hardly likely to encourage enough people to vote them into winning any seats but since the object of UKIP is to destroy the tories so they can replace them it's inevitable that they will split the opposition to Labour.
Its possible that UKIP will effectively suck the poision out of the tory image and the tories will get more centrist votes. I'm not sure this will be enough if the tribal Labour vote holds firm as suggested.
"Turkey president Erdogan: Women are not equal to men"
Most women would agree.
They are far superior to mere males.
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
Wages are also constrained by new mandatory pensions (payments by employer and employeee) introduced under this govt but formulated by Labour.
But given my cousins straddle the Wiltshire/Somerset border I had better not...
But it makes the metropolitan elite feel better.
I once saw a QT where this was raised. Members of the panel could not outdo each other enough in how good it was to give this money away.
twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/536882999305179136
If the structural deficit were down we'd be in surplus as this is the up side of the cycle.
Is he still lionised as a "moderate" Islamist or "mildly Islamist" as the Akonomist used to label him.
Don't worry, it will be exempt from any public sector cuts.
It would probably have been wacist to investigate Onamade 2 too closely in any case.
Miss Cyclefree, perhaps because Turkey is sliding away from being an example of how country can be both modern and Muslim. It seems to be drifting from secular democracy towards an increasingly Islamist approach.
"The structural deficit is down considerably. "
I have always understood the term structural deficit to mean that element that remained after stripping out payments for one-off or temporary events (e.g. increased welfare spending during a recession). Given that the economy is in a period of growth and employment has never been so high one wonders what one-off or temporary effects are still present in HMG spending? Most of the current deficit looks structural.
how people can be such arses when the facts say we're in the shit is beyond me.
http://southwestforum.org.uk/somerset-racial-equality-council-srec-closes
As for quoting sub samples showing Lib Dems at 1% in the North , including a sub sample like that will throw the whole poll out . The Lib Dems will get 5% of the vote in the North in just the parliamentary seats that they already have in the North of England ..
However your joint has little to do with the reality of next May that will confirm PBers who seriously thought Mr Miliband would be traversing the portals of 10 Downing Street as Her Majesty's First Minister are in expeditious need of psychiatric treatment.
Whether this is caused by particular events and will fade or disappear or whether this is a long-term change is a very important question - and one to which I do not have the answer.
just total bollocks.
If the structural deficit were down we'd be in surplus as this is the up side of the cycle.
I think that really gets to the heart of the matter. This government came in to power promising to eliminate the deficit, and they haven't. That has been due to declining tax revenues (as well as a failure to take on such unnecessary spend such as the whole panoply of OAP benefits). Instead we have had tax cuts at both ends of the scale (for the rich who already vote Con, and for the poor who'll probably vote either Lab or Ukip). The pensioners who've escaped the cuts aren't showing their gratitude either, as they head off into the arms of Farage. If they'd gone for genuine austerity, they'd have a coherent message to put across, and could in fact be doing a lot better than they are.
Election forecast UK have just forecast this (via twitter).
They'd never have got "genuine austerity" past the Lib Dems.
are you saying the LDs don't want things, that they won't cut a deal on things they value?
simply put camerons crap at politics as he could have haggled better with his partners and had something to show for it..
Vince Cable: I have the nuclear option, it's like fighting a war
... there is a constant battle going on behind the scenes ...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/8215481/Vince-Cable-I-have-the-nuclear-option-its-like-fighting-a-war.html
Almost 80 workers at Wales’ largest council have been sacked over their sickness record in the last year, it’s been revealed.
According to a performance report at Cardiff council, a total of 77 employees lost their jobs because of their sickness absence.
It also reported that the average employee at the local authority calls in sick for 10 days every year – a statistic branded “frightening” by councillors.
According to chief executive Paul Orders’ report, the number of dismissals relating to sickness absence increased by 40% during the first half of Mr Orders said: “The rate of improvement is insufficient and has highlighted a degree of noncompliance with the corporate policy in regard to return to work interviews and trigger stage interviews.”........
The council anticipated its employees would each take nine days of sickness leave this year, but figures now suggest the average employee will have 10.16 sick days by the end of 2014.
Figures in the cabinet paper reveal that the department with the highest rate of sickness absence is environment.
In this department, employees called in sick on eight days in the second quarter of the year and projections now suggest they will take 17 sick days each by the end of 2014.
Other departments with high levels of sickness absence include health and social care (17.37 sick days a year) and children’s services (15.43 days).
The departments with the lowest levels of sickness absence are democracy (3.87 days) and economic (3.88 days).
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/local-news/cardiff-council-sacks-77-employees-8160055
Of course the LDs want things, but the point was about genuine austerity. By the nature of compromise the Tories could never have delivered that in a coalition.
The evidence from history is that religions are more durable than political ideologies, mainly because of their very long time horizons.
(1) The Labour vote is, despite various speculations to the contrary, quite close to the hard core - people who voted Gordon plus Red Liberals who loathe the Coailtion. Both groups are pretty immune to Mail/Sun campaigns.
(2) Views on Ed's leadership are priced into the Labour vote. Labour voters either like him or have decided to accept him as the price of getting the Tories out. But in any case they dislike the Tories, the Sun and the Mail more, so Dave and the media sneering about Mylene simply doesn't work with them (though it may well echo with people who weren't going to vote Labour anyway).
(3) The strategic error the Tories have been making for some time is to focus almost entirely on attack. UKIP are fruitloops, the LibDems are useless, you've gotta stop Ed. People pick up the Millwall flavour ("Everyone hates us, we don't care") and feel alienated. If they're right-alienated they go UKIP, if they're left-alienated they go Labour. Does Cameron stand for anything in particular? In quite a few constituencies, including mine, both Tory and Labour candidates are strongly pro-EU. In fact we've had Europhile MPs for the last 40 years. I canvassed a couple the other day. The bloke came out and said pugnaciously: "We're voting UKIP, mate. I've talked to the wife and I tell you, we're never voting Labour or Tory again! " Behind him, his wife silently appeared and ostentatiously rolled her eyes. I have no idea who she'll vote for, and in the circs thought it more tactful not to ask...
I guess there would almost certainly have to be another election - with different leaders...???
Maybe that's what the voters want.
What do you say to the fact out national debt is approaching £1.5tn and increasing at almost £100bn a year?
Do you think we should raise taxes? Ignore it? Renege on it?