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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ashcroft phone poll, like Populus this morning, has CON

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited November 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ashcroft phone poll, like Populus this morning, has CON trailing by 5%

The followed this morning’s Monday Populus online poll that had Lab 36 (=) Con 31 (-2), LD 9 (=), UKIP 15.(+1) So both today’s surveys have comfortable margins for EdM’s team which if it wasn’t for the current problems north of the border would point to a solid majority on May 7th.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • First!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Labour +4, Con -1, UKIP -2, Lib Dem -1, Green (-) from my prediction this morning.
  • Ed is safe! Praise the Lord!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/ed-miliband-labour-leader-for-general-election

    Ed to still be leader 1-8 now with SkyBet. Glad I smashed more into the 1-5 when it was available.
  • Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .

    Labour leading by 5pts in both of today's polls so far. It may be that the Thornberry episode wasn't quite the disaster some may have predicted – but to be honest that is par for the course on PB Mark, as you know.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .

    I think ditching her will do Labour good, they have the metropolitan/London/luvvie vote absolutely sown up and need to focus on their WC UKIP/Lab switchers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .

    Labour leading by 5pts in both of today's polls so far. It may be that the Thornberry episode wasn't quite the disaster some may have predicted – but to be honest that is par for the course on PB Mark, as you know.
    It was quite funny though :)
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Happy days!
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Ashcroft also says his latest survey of battleground constituencies will be out later this week.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    No '22 rumblings probably means Dave is safe now too (He was already but if anything was going to happen surely R&S was the time)
  • Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .

    Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    BenM said:

    Happy days!

    Enjoy them while they last! ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Will the Greens field as many candidates as the Lib Dems ?
  • Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide?

    :)
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Terrible polls for the tories today.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Just when we thought His Lordship had got the hang of this polling malarkey....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited November 2014
    Tories in a 27-30 window, 28.5 midpoint,
    Labour in a 30-32 window, 31 midpoint (Ashcroft)
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .

    Labour leading by 5pts in both of today's polls so far. It may be that the Thornberry episode wasn't quite the disaster some may have predicted – but to be honest that is par for the course on PB Mark, as you know.
    It is true that I thought Brown's bigot gate episode in 2010 would hit Labour support . I learnt from my error then . Some people never learn from history .
  • Alas, today's polls will have to be included in next week's ELBOW, which this week shows Lab lead down to only 0.5% (-0.9)



  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Just when we thought His Lordship had got the hang of this polling malarkey....

    He has.
  • Yes - look how well Ed's doing:

    did they think David Cameron or Ed Miliband was the most likely to be Prime Minister after the election? On this question the nation was less equivocal. Only 23 per cent of all voters said they expected Miliband to enter Number Ten next May. More than half (59 per cent) of all voters, including nearly nine in ten Tories (88 per cent), a majority of UKIP voters (55 per cent) and two thirds of swing voters (68 per cent) expect Cameron to remain in charge. Even Labour voters are divided over whether the Prime Minister will be Cameron (43 per cent) or Miliband (44 per cent).

    In other words, though all outcomes seem possible, most voters just do not think Mr Miliband will reach Downing Street. That in itself could be an indicator of whether they will ultimately be prepared to put him there.


    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/11/lord-ashcroft-labour-are-five-points-ahead-in-this-weeks-ashcroft-national-poll.html
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The internal questions are bad for Miliband personally though. Only 23% think he will be the next PM against 59% for Cameron
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Pulpstar said:

    Will the Greens field as many candidates as the Lib Dems ?

    No.

    At conference Natalie Bennett set a target of 75%. Over the weekend Caroline Lucas articulated the aim as 500+ candidates (technically slightly higher but presumably just a better way of putting it). Given the size of the party now (very nearly twice as much as at the start of the year) I think the 50% or so increase in candidates implied by those statements is achievable.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Judging by the Ashcroft and Populus today I think the very soft UKIP-Con switchers are currently UKIP.

    They are low hanging fruit for both UKIP and Tories though.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .

    Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.
    Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .
  • Including 11 polls last week including YG Sunday Times and Sun on Sunday:

    Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 2h 2 hours ago
    Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) update 23rd Nov. Lab 33.4%, Con 32.9%, UKIP 15.3%, LD 7.1%

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/536882999305179136

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .

    Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.
    Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .
    Fancy increasing your exposure on Caroline Lucas retaining her seat at the same terms you previously gave me?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    isam said:

    The internal questions are bad for Miliband personally though. Only 23% think he will be the next PM against 59% for Cameron

    Fortunately for Edward Samuel Miliband we are NOT in a presidential system.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Judging by the Ashcroft and Populus today I think the very soft UKIP-Con switchers are currently UKIP.

    They are low hanging fruit for both UKIP and Tories though.

    55% of UKIP voters think Cameron will be PM.......

  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Two polls that will start to put the willies up Tory backbenchers.

    Get Ed is backfiring. The public want the Tories out.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2014

    Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .

    Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.
    Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .
    What about Rochester, Clacton & Heywood?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    Shouldn’t we be beginning ask if the LD’s will field as many candidates as the Greens?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    The internal questions are bad for Miliband personally though. Only 23% think he will be the next PM against 59% for Cameron

    Fortunately for Edward Samuel Miliband we are NOT in a presidential system.

    Technically true. But in practice it does affect (some) people's thinking when they vote.

  • BenM said:

    Get Ed is backfiring. The public want the Tories out.

    And they don't want Ed in.....How is it backfiring?

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    isam said:

    Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .

    Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.
    Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .
    What about Rochester?
    What about it ?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Shouldn’t we be beginning ask if the LD’s will field as many candidates as the Greens?

    Nope .
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .

    Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.
    Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .
    What about Rochester?
    What about it ?
    The green vote there was about five times that of the Lib Dems wasn't it?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    The internal questions are bad for Miliband personally though. Only 23% think he will be the next PM against 59% for Cameron

    Fortunately for Edward Samuel Miliband we are NOT in a presidential system.
    Samuel, perfect name for a North London politician
  • I see #CameronMustGo is still trending on Twitter.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    If you are going off council elections then my Rother Valley UKIP tip is a sure fire winner.

    But it isn't, I'd price it at 4-1 - not evens (Tipped at 8-1)
  • Pulpstar said:

    Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .

    Labour leading by 5pts in both of today's polls so far. It may be that the Thornberry episode wasn't quite the disaster some may have predicted – but to be honest that is par for the course on PB Mark, as you know.
    It was quite funny though :)
    I missed most of the action as I have been up north all weekend socialising. I'm sure it was amusing - usual "lefties hate England" stuff no doubt :)
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    isam said:

    The internal questions are bad for Miliband personally though. Only 23% think he will be the next PM against 59% for Cameron

    I think this is more because people don't understand the electoral system.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited November 2014
    Well, we'll have to wait and see tonight's YouGov -- but I suppose it's POSSIBLE that the recent press coverage has given the impression that Labour's chances are evaporating, and has thus scared some lefties/poor people who were flirting with the Greens or UKIP back into "the fold" out of fear of the Tories getting in again. Though I'm still uneasy about Labour relying on that to happen.
  • BenM said:

    Get Ed is backfiring. The public want the Tories out.

    And they don't want Ed in.....How is it backfiring?

    Maybe they would like a Con/Lab coalition, with Nigel Farage as PM?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Todays LordyLordy LAB 349 CON 241 LD 30 EICIPM

    Fantastic Monday Polls for Ed is Crap
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    I think this question needs to be updated...

    Q4. The next general election will take place on May 7th 2015 - just under a year from now.

    It's more like 6 months now.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited November 2014

    I see #CameronMustGo is still trending on Twitter.

    No. Cameron must absolutely stay. I'll lose fortunes if he goes :P
  • Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .

    Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.
    Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .
    Mark of interest what are your expectations for the number of LD MPs after the next GE and what level of vote share? I am guessing <30 MPs and 11% vote share.
  • Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 1m1 minute ago
    The @LordAshcroft England only figures are absolutely devastating for the Tories and show the damage UKIP is doing

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited November 2014
    Table 3 of the Ashcroft has Con/Lab/UKIP level with male voters.

    Con 27%, Lab 27%, UKIP 25%

    p.5
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/ANP-141124-Full-data-tables.pdf
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 1m1 minute ago
    The @LordAshcroft England only figures are absolutely devastating for the Tories and show the damage UKIP is doing

    Wonderful!
  • BenM said:

    isam said:

    The internal questions are bad for Miliband personally though. Only 23% think he will be the next PM against 59% for Cameron

    I think this is more because people don't understand the electoral system.
    I'm sure that's right, Ben.

    A lot of people would simply regard Ed as unsuitable for the Office without giving a thought to the difficulty Dave would face in forming a Government thirty or so seats short of an absolute majority.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Carnyx said:





    From yesterday:

    stay/leave:
    OA: 40/41
    Scot: 59/22

    Now it is a 'Scottish subsample' - but that's quite a gap.......

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/q4rrapo5ra/SunOnSundayResults_141121_whole_sample_Website.pdf

    I'm not sure if you have forgotten the events of the last two years so soon. To refresh your memory, you only need to do a google over indyref - for instance a search of Wings over Scotland (who is pretty good for coverage and for linking to back up his assertions). The Wee Blue Book is a good start, not least because he tends to cite pro-Union sources, so he ought to be acceptable to you. However, it was one of the crowdfunded polls done at his behest that helped confirm the gap.
    Why the condescension when I post data supporting your point?
    Sorry, quite right to pull me up. I do apologise. I had got muddled as to who was speaking (I know, I know) and thought Moniker was being sarcastic! One reason is that I'm not actually sure how reliable that particular survey is, if it is of Sun readers, but no doubt you are happier with it. It is actually a stronger figure than what I would have expected.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    The posting volume amongst posters who are Labour leaning is tremendously up on this thread against most other threads.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited November 2014

    Todays LordyLordy LAB 349 CON 241 LD 30 EICIPM

    Fantastic Monday Polls for Ed is Crap

    Todays LordyLordy LAB 349 CON 241 LD 30 EICIPM

    Fantastic Monday Polls for Ed is Crap

    Well, they're decent, but let's not forget this time last year 5% leads would've been a little on the worrying side...
  • The good news is that EdM is safe for 2014. We will be in the Xmas shutdown soon.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Ghastly Scots subsample for Labour though !
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    The good news is that EdM is safe for 2014. We will be in the Xmas shutdown soon.

    David Cameron as well.
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:





    From yesterday:

    stay/leave:
    OA: 40/41
    Scot: 59/22

    Now it is a 'Scottish subsample' - but that's quite a gap.......

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/q4rrapo5ra/SunOnSundayResults_141121_whole_sample_Website.pdf

    I'm not sure if you have forgotten the events of the last two years so soon. To refresh your memory, you only need to do a google over indyref - for instance a search of Wings over Scotland (who is pretty good for coverage and for linking to back up his assertions). The Wee Blue Book is a good start, not least because he tends to cite pro-Union sources, so he ought to be acceptable to you. However, it was one of the crowdfunded polls done at his behest that helped confirm the gap.
    Why the condescension when I post data supporting your point?
    Sorry, quite right to pull me up. I do apologise. I had got muddled as to who was speaking (I know, I know) and thought Moniker was being sarcastic! One reason is that I'm not actually sure how reliable that particular survey is, if it is of Sun readers, but no doubt you are happier with it. It is actually a stronger figure than what I would have expected.
    It was the full panel - a bit more pro-EU than others I've seen, but the pattern is consistent with the Scots (almost) always firmly in the 'stay' camp - while rUK is a lot closer and wobbles between in & out. Despite what is often claimed, Scots poll remarkably close to rUK on virtually everything - except the EU and nukes.

  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Yet more evidence that Ed Miliband will become The Accidental Prime Minister that nobody wanted next May.

    Measure up the curtains, Gromit...
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    BenM said:

    isam said:

    The internal questions are bad for Miliband personally though. Only 23% think he will be the next PM against 59% for Cameron

    I think this is more because people don't understand the electoral system.
    I'm sure that's right, Ben.

    A lot of people would simply regard Ed as unsuitable for the Office without giving a thought to the difficulty Dave would face in forming a Government thirty or so seats short of an absolute majority.
    30 seats short of majority means Cameron is out! Can't wait. The most useless PM since, er, Brown.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,167
    The only hope for the Tories to pull back from this devastating position is to ditch the hapless Dave and replace him with a politician of substance, character and conviction - Priti Patel.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    edited November 2014
    The Lincolnshire Echo has picked up the Jack Monroe story but somehow not The Guardian.

    Curious.

    On-topic - the Cons remain nasty, as people remain in denial about what is required if we are to rid ourselves of the deficit. 2010 really might have been the wrong election to win which means with a Lab govt we have two options:

    1) "We'll cut more than the Cons" hold fast to economic sanity
    2) "We'll spend and borrow more" pandering to the vocal and numerous "it's not fair" contingent.



  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    I've said it all along and I'm sticking to my prediction:

    Labour Minority. Tories most votes. PM Ed.
  • Pulpstar said:

    The posting volume amongst posters who are Labour leaning is tremendously up on this thread against most other threads.

    Indeed so. Makes a change :)
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited November 2014

    Despite what is often claimed, Scots poll remarkably close to rUK on virtually everything - except the EU and nukes.

    Are they more or less in favour of nuking the EU?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Ghastly Scots subsample for Labour though !

    A sample of 57 is not worth mentioning.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Even if Labour come behind the Tories UK-wide (as I expect), I still think they'll have the most seats in Scotland. Scottish polls are NEVER reliable this far out, the huge swathe of people who switch between the SNP and Labour depending on what type of election it is don't really start focussing until an election is imminent.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    BenM said:

    BenM said:

    isam said:

    The internal questions are bad for Miliband personally though. Only 23% think he will be the next PM against 59% for Cameron

    I think this is more because people don't understand the electoral system.
    I'm sure that's right, Ben.

    A lot of people would simply regard Ed as unsuitable for the Office without giving a thought to the difficulty Dave would face in forming a Government thirty or so seats short of an absolute majority.
    30 seats short of majority means Cameron is out! Can't wait. The most useless PM since, er, Brown.
    If Dave has more seats than Ed he is going nowhere.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The worst party leader of all time ever, ever! And they are still leading by 5? Maybe it's the Conservatives that have problems. I mean it's the party that has problems that has defections right?
  • I see #CameronMustGo is still trending on Twitter.

    Remember how Twitter won SINDYREF?

    The voters seem to think #CameronWillStay

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .

    Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.
    Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .
    What about Rochester?
    What about it ?
    The green vote there was about five times that of the Lib Dems wasn't it?
    And in the Stockport by election the Lib Dem vote was 7 times that of the Greens wasn't it ?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Danny565 said:

    Even if Labour come behind the Tories UK-wide (as I expect), I still think they'll have the most seats in Scotland. Scottish polls are NEVER reliable this far out, the huge swathe of people who switch between the SNP and Labour depending on what type of election it is don't really start focussing until an election is imminent.

    Unfortunately that is copy paste talk from the praetorian Tories who say that UKIP is not a problem as their voters will come back to the Tories come election time.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:





    From yesterday:

    stay/leave:
    OA: 40/41
    Scot: 59/22

    Now it is a 'Scottish subsample' - but that's quite a gap.......

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/q4rrapo5ra/SunOnSundayResults_141121_whole_sample_Website.pdf

    I'm not sure if you have forgotten the events of the last two years so soon. To refresh your memory, you only need to do a google over indyref - for instance a search of Wings over Scotland (who is pretty good for coverage and for linking to back up his assertions). The Wee Blue Book is a good start, not least because he tends to cite pro-Union sources, so he ought to be acceptable to you. However, it was one of the crowdfunded polls done at his behest that helped confirm the gap.
    Why the condescension when I post data supporting your point?
    Sorry, quite right to pull me up. I do apologise. I had got muddled as to who was speaking (I know, I know) and thought Moniker was being sarcastic! One reason is that I'm not actually sure how reliable that particular survey is, if it is of Sun readers, but no doubt you are happier with it. It is actually a stronger figure than what I would have expected.
    It was the full panel - a bit more pro-EU than others I've seen, but the pattern is consistent with the Scots (almost) always firmly in the 'stay' camp - while rUK is a lot closer and wobbles between in & out. Despite what is often claimed, Scots poll remarkably close to rUK on virtually everything - except the EU and nukes.

    Yep. And the last two are a small country mentality: don't feel they can go it alone and would rather leave collective defence to the big boys.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .

    Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.
    Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .
    Mark of interest what are your expectations for the number of LD MPs after the next GE and what level of vote share? I am guessing
    36 to 40 MPs and 13-15% vote share .
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Interesting to see that the evaporation of Scottish Labour support is seeing a resurgence in English Labour support. Suggests the SNP surge/Slab plunge is real.
  • Neil said:

    Despite what is often claimed, Scots poll remarkably close to rUK on virtually everything - except the EU and nukes.

    Are they more or less in favour of nuking the EU?
    Definitely less......and you really shouldn't be giving Kippers ideas.....
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .

    Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.
    Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .
    What about Rochester?
    What about it ?
    The green vote there was about five times that of the Lib Dems wasn't it?
    And in the Stockport by election the Lib Dem vote was 7 times that of the Greens wasn't it ?
    You were almost beaten by the MRLP in Rochester.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:





    From yesterday:

    stay/leave:
    OA: 40/41
    Scot: 59/22

    Now it is a 'Scottish subsample' - but that's quite a gap.......

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/q4rrapo5ra/SunOnSundayResults_141121_whole_sample_Website.pdf

    I'm not sure if you have forgotten the events of the last two years so soon. To refresh your memory, you only need to do a google over indyref - for instance a search of Wings over Scotland (who is pretty good for coverage and for linking to back up his assertions). The Wee Blue Book is a good start, not least because he tends to cite pro-Union sources, so he ought to be acceptable to you. However, it was one of the crowdfunded polls done at his behest that helped confirm the gap.
    Why the condescension when I post data supporting your point?
    Sorry, quite right to pull me up. I do apologise. I had got muddled as to who was speaking (I know, I know) and thought Moniker was being sarcastic! One reason is that I'm not actually sure how reliable that particular survey is, if it is of Sun readers, but no doubt you are happier with it. It is actually a stronger figure than what I would have expected.
    It was the full panel - a bit more pro-EU than others I've seen, but the pattern is consistent with the Scots (almost) always firmly in the 'stay' camp - while rUK is a lot closer and wobbles between in & out. Despite what is often claimed, Scots poll remarkably close to rUK on virtually everything - except the EU and nukes.

    Thanks. Though one might inquire why they keep voting against the Tories in that case ...

    The EU is going to be very important as the Unionist parties seem to keep wanting to refight indyref. But As the Unionists fought indyref in part on a platform that being out of the EU would be a fate worse than death, simultaneously reminding the Scots of indyref (with UKIP and rebellious Tories to be crushed on the BBC 'national' news from London ad nauseam, too) while expecting them to vote Unionist is an interesting strategy. And it doesn't help to have this in the newspapers:

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/nigel-dodds-unionist-parties-should-forge-pact-in-scotland-and-northern-i.1416763066?

    Trouble is, it's pretty toxic for Labour too.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Table 3 of the Ashcroft has Con/Lab/UKIP level with male voters.

    Con 27%, Lab 27%, UKIP 25%

    p.5
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/ANP-141124-Full-data-tables.pdf

    Ms Pankhurst rocks
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Speedy said:

    Danny565 said:

    Even if Labour come behind the Tories UK-wide (as I expect), I still think they'll have the most seats in Scotland. Scottish polls are NEVER reliable this far out, the huge swathe of people who switch between the SNP and Labour depending on what type of election it is don't really start focussing until an election is imminent.

    Unfortunately that is copy paste talk from the praetorian Tories who say that UKIP is not a problem as their voters will come back to the Tories come election time.
    But there's actually a proven record of this happening in Scotland, though. The SNP had a big lead in general election polls up until late 2009, before a huge turnaround when the election actually came. Then it was the exact reverse a year later for the Holyrood election: Labour had a massive lead for ages until the campaign started and people started thinking specifically about who they wanted to be the Scottish government and the SNP started surging.

    It just seems to me that those "switchers" in Scotland automatically just tell the pollsters who they voted for in the most recent election (I'm defining the referendum as an election for the purposes of this), and only start thinking about one specific election when it's about to happen.
  • The last few polls have not been good for the Tories, but let's see how it all settles down once Rochester is out of the spotlight: we've had at least 6 polls with the Tories in the lead this month.

    The last sentence of Lord Ashcroft's summary is instructive:

    "For the other half of the sample I put the question in a slightly different way: irrespective of what they wanted to happen, did they think David Cameron or Ed Miliband was the most likely to be Prime Minister after the election? On this question the nation was less equivocal. Only 23% of all voters said they expected Miliband to enter Number Ten next May. More than half (59%) of all voters, including nearly nine in ten Tories (88%), a majority of UKIP voters (55%) and two thirds of swing voters (68%) expect Cameron to remain in charge. Even Labour voters are divided over whether the PM will be Cameron (43%) or Miliband (44%).

    In other words, though all outcomes seem possible, most voters just do not think Mr Miliband will reach Downing Street. That in itself could be an indicator of whether they will ultimately be prepared to put him there."
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .

    Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.
    Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .
    What about Rochester?
    What about it ?
    The green vote there was about five times that of the Lib Dems wasn't it?
    And in the Stockport by election the Lib Dem vote was 7 times that of the Greens wasn't it ?
    Didn't even know there was one in Stockport, when was that?
  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    Miss Vance, I'm shocked to learnt that people on Twitter who don't like Cameron are saying on Twitter that they don't like Cameron.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited November 2014
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:





    From yesterday:

    stay/leave:
    OA: 40/41
    Scot: 59/22

    Now it is a 'Scottish subsample' - but that's quite a gap.......

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/q4rrapo5ra/SunOnSundayResults_141121_whole_sample_Website.pdf

    I'm not sure if you have forgotten the events of the last two years so soon. To refresh your memory, you only need to do a google over indyref - for instance a search of Wings over Scotland (who is pretty good for coverage and for linking to back up his assertions). The Wee Blue Book is a good start, not least because he tends to cite pro-Union sources, so he ought to be acceptable to you. However, it was one of the crowdfunded polls done at his behest that helped confirm the gap.
    Why the condescension when I post data supporting your point?
    Sorry, quite right to pull me up. I do apologise. I had got muddled as to who was speaking (I know, I know) and thought Moniker was being sarcastic! One reason is that I'm not actually sure how reliable that particular survey is, if it is of Sun readers, but no doubt you are happier with it. It is actually a stronger figure than what I would have expected.
    It was the full panel - a bit more pro-EU than others I've seen, but the pattern is consistent with the Scots (almost) always firmly in the 'stay' camp - while rUK is a lot closer and wobbles between in & out. Despite what is often claimed, Scots poll remarkably close to rUK on virtually everything - except the EU and nukes.

    Trouble is, it's pretty toxic for Labour too.
    I have visions of Messrs Murphy, Findlay and Ms Boyak running screaming from the room......though having spent decades demonising 'Westminster' and 'Tories' one has to have a quiet chuckle.....

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Speedy said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .

    Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.
    Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .
    What about Rochester?
    What about it ?
    The green vote there was about five times that of the Lib Dems wasn't it?
    And in the Stockport by election the Lib Dem vote was 7 times that of the Greens wasn't it ?
    You were almost beaten by the MRLP in Rochester.
    So what , in the Henley by election in 2008 , Labour were beaten by both Greens and BNP , in 2010 they polled 5 times their votes .There are plenty of other examples if you want to look for them
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    The Tories are the Party of rich whingers (Myleene Klass) and purveyors of anti-social eyesores (White Van Dan).

    Into the more serious area of policy substance, Ed has found himself, rather accidentally, on his own.

    The Tories have galloped off into a fairyland of Ed baiting mapped out by their press backers and made themselves ridiculous and irrelevant.

    Ed couldn't ask for better enemies.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2014
    Alistair said:

    Interesting to see that the evaporation of Scottish Labour support is seeing a resurgence in English Labour support. Suggests the SNP surge/Slab plunge is real.

    Indeed if Labour focus more on england rather than scotland they will get more votes and more seats, after all scotland will be SNP territory no matter what for at least a decade as shown by BQ in Canada, only when the scottish people realize that a vote for the SNP doesn't mean they will get more for scotland they will want to vote for a national party again.

    Labour should study the rise and fall of the BQ in Canada in order to have a blueprint to deal with the SNP.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    The Lincolnshire Echo has picked up the Jack Monroe story but somehow not The Guardian.

    Curious.

    On-topic - the Cons remain nasty, as people remain in denial about what is required if we are to rid ourselves of the deficit. 2010 really might have been the wrong election to win which means with a Lab govt we have two options:

    1) "We'll cut more than the Cons" hold fast to economic sanity
    2) "We'll spend and borrow more" pandering to the vocal and numerous "it's not fair" contingent.



    I believe she has form, as well, on the same topic.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .

    Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.
    Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .
    What about Rochester?
    What about it ?
    The green vote there was about five times that of the Lib Dems wasn't it?
    And in the Stockport by election the Lib Dem vote was 7 times that of the Greens wasn't it ?
    Didn't even know there was one in Stockport, when was that?
    Last week same day as Rochester .
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .

    Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.
    Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .
    What about Rochester?
    What about it ?
    The green vote there was about five times that of the Lib Dems wasn't it?
    And in the Stockport by election the Lib Dem vote was 7 times that of the Greens wasn't it ?
    You were almost beaten by the MRLP in Rochester.
    So what , in the Henley by election in 2008 , Labour were beaten by both Greens and BNP , in 2010 they polled 5 times their votes .There are plenty of other examples if you want to look for them
    But Labour were beaten by political parties not joke candidates.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,903
    Alistair said:

    The worst party leader of all time ever, ever! And they are still leading by 5? Maybe it's the Conservatives that have problems. I mean it's the party that has problems that has defections right?

    Ed's far from being the worst ever party leader. Clearly he's not the best either, but he's surely suffering from the general public disapproval of politicians generally, and (I would contend) the fact that Cameron is actually pretty good.

    Apart from Brown, who's in his own special category of awfulness in every respect, I'd certainly say Kinnock, Callaghan, and Foot were worse for Labour. IDS and Heath worse for the Tories. (Merely as I see things of course)

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .

    Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.
    Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .
    What about Rochester?
    What about it ?
    The green vote there was about five times that of the Lib Dems wasn't it?
    And in the Stockport by election the Lib Dem vote was 7 times that of the Greens wasn't it ?
    Didn't even know there was one in Stockport, when was that?
    Last week same day as Rochester .
    Oh council by elections? Didn't notice sorry
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    BenM said:

    The Tories are the Party of rich whingers (Myleene Klass) and purveyors of anti-social eyesores (White Van Dan).

    Into the more serious area of policy substance, Ed has found himself, rather accidentally, on his own.

    The Tories have galloped off into a fairyland of Ed baiting mapped out by their press backers and made themselves ridiculous and irrelevant.

    Ed couldn't ask for better enemies.

    Ed's enemies are behind him.

    The Tories are merely his opponents.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Omnium said:

    Alistair said:

    The worst party leader of all time ever, ever! And they are still leading by 5? Maybe it's the Conservatives that have problems. I mean it's the party that has problems that has defections right?

    Ed's far from being the worst ever party leader. Clearly he's not the best either, but he's surely suffering from the general public disapproval of politicians generally, and (I would contend) the fact that Cameron is actually pretty good.

    Apart from Brown, who's in his own special category of awfulness in every respect, I'd certainly say Kinnock, Callaghan, and Foot were worse for Labour. IDS and Heath worse for the Tories. (Merely as I see things of course)

    Kinnock was actually pretty good - not as a prospective PM, but he deserves credit for saving Labour from a near-death experience in the mid 80s
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Charles said:

    BenM said:

    The Tories are the Party of rich whingers (Myleene Klass) and purveyors of anti-social eyesores (White Van Dan).

    Into the more serious area of policy substance, Ed has found himself, rather accidentally, on his own.

    The Tories have galloped off into a fairyland of Ed baiting mapped out by their press backers and made themselves ridiculous and irrelevant.

    Ed couldn't ask for better enemies.

    Ed's enemies are behind him.

    The Tories are merely his opponents.
    That is true for Dave too, and ever was thus for every party leader.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Another poll that confounds all those who pontificated that the Thornberry escapade would hit Labour support .

    Another poll with the Green's level with the LDs. In case you did not notice Mark.
    Another poll overstating Green support , it was down again in all last weeks's council by elections as it has been in almost every by election since June .
    What about Rochester?
    What about it ?
    The green vote there was about five times that of the Lib Dems wasn't it?
    And in the Stockport by election the Lib Dem vote was 7 times that of the Greens wasn't it ?
    You were almost beaten by the MRLP in Rochester.
    So what , in the Henley by election in 2008 , Labour were beaten by both Greens and BNP , in 2010 they polled 5 times their votes .There are plenty of other examples if you want to look for them
    But Labour were beaten by political parties not joke candidates.
    And the Lib Dems were not beaten by a joke candidate apart I suppose by UKIP
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    I see the 1-8 for Ed to still be leader has been pulled by Sky Bet.

This discussion has been closed.