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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ashcroft phone poll, like Populus this morning, has CON
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ashcroft phone poll, like Populus this morning, has CON trailing by 5%
The followed this morning’s Monday Populus online poll that had Lab 36 (=) Con 31 (-2), LD 9 (=), UKIP 15.(+1) So both today’s surveys have comfortable margins for EdM’s team which if it wasn’t for the current problems north of the border would point to a solid majority on May 7th.
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Ed to still be leader 1-8 now with SkyBet. Glad I smashed more into the 1-5 when it was available.
Labour in a 30-32 window, 31 midpoint (Ashcroft)
did they think David Cameron or Ed Miliband was the most likely to be Prime Minister after the election? On this question the nation was less equivocal. Only 23 per cent of all voters said they expected Miliband to enter Number Ten next May. More than half (59 per cent) of all voters, including nearly nine in ten Tories (88 per cent), a majority of UKIP voters (55 per cent) and two thirds of swing voters (68 per cent) expect Cameron to remain in charge. Even Labour voters are divided over whether the Prime Minister will be Cameron (43 per cent) or Miliband (44 per cent).
In other words, though all outcomes seem possible, most voters just do not think Mr Miliband will reach Downing Street. That in itself could be an indicator of whether they will ultimately be prepared to put him there.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/11/lord-ashcroft-labour-are-five-points-ahead-in-this-weeks-ashcroft-national-poll.html
At conference Natalie Bennett set a target of 75%. Over the weekend Caroline Lucas articulated the aim as 500+ candidates (technically slightly higher but presumably just a better way of putting it). Given the size of the party now (very nearly twice as much as at the start of the year) I think the 50% or so increase in candidates implied by those statements is achievable.
They are low hanging fruit for both UKIP and Tories though.
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 2h 2 hours ago
Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) update 23rd Nov. Lab 33.4%, Con 32.9%, UKIP 15.3%, LD 7.1%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/536882999305179136
Get Ed is backfiring. The public want the Tories out.
Technically true. But in practice it does affect (some) people's thinking when they vote.
But it isn't, I'd price it at 4-1 - not evens (Tipped at 8-1)
Fantastic Monday Polls for Ed is Crap
Q4. The next general election will take place on May 7th 2015 - just under a year from now.
It's more like 6 months now.
The @LordAshcroft England only figures are absolutely devastating for the Tories and show the damage UKIP is doing
Con 27%, Lab 27%, UKIP 25%
p.5
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/ANP-141124-Full-data-tables.pdf
A lot of people would simply regard Ed as unsuitable for the Office without giving a thought to the difficulty Dave would face in forming a Government thirty or so seats short of an absolute majority.
Measure up the curtains, Gromit...
Curious.
On-topic - the Cons remain nasty, as people remain in denial about what is required if we are to rid ourselves of the deficit. 2010 really might have been the wrong election to win which means with a Lab govt we have two options:
1) "We'll cut more than the Cons" hold fast to economic sanity
2) "We'll spend and borrow more" pandering to the vocal and numerous "it's not fair" contingent.
Labour Minority. Tories most votes. PM Ed.
The voters seem to think #CameronWillStay
The EU is going to be very important as the Unionist parties seem to keep wanting to refight indyref. But As the Unionists fought indyref in part on a platform that being out of the EU would be a fate worse than death, simultaneously reminding the Scots of indyref (with UKIP and rebellious Tories to be crushed on the BBC 'national' news from London ad nauseam, too) while expecting them to vote Unionist is an interesting strategy. And it doesn't help to have this in the newspapers:
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/nigel-dodds-unionist-parties-should-forge-pact-in-scotland-and-northern-i.1416763066?
Trouble is, it's pretty toxic for Labour too.
It just seems to me that those "switchers" in Scotland automatically just tell the pollsters who they voted for in the most recent election (I'm defining the referendum as an election for the purposes of this), and only start thinking about one specific election when it's about to happen.
The last sentence of Lord Ashcroft's summary is instructive:
"For the other half of the sample I put the question in a slightly different way: irrespective of what they wanted to happen, did they think David Cameron or Ed Miliband was the most likely to be Prime Minister after the election? On this question the nation was less equivocal. Only 23% of all voters said they expected Miliband to enter Number Ten next May. More than half (59%) of all voters, including nearly nine in ten Tories (88%), a majority of UKIP voters (55%) and two thirds of swing voters (68%) expect Cameron to remain in charge. Even Labour voters are divided over whether the PM will be Cameron (43%) or Miliband (44%).
In other words, though all outcomes seem possible, most voters just do not think Mr Miliband will reach Downing Street. That in itself could be an indicator of whether they will ultimately be prepared to put him there."
Miss Vance, I'm shocked to learnt that people on Twitter who don't like Cameron are saying on Twitter that they don't like Cameron.
Into the more serious area of policy substance, Ed has found himself, rather accidentally, on his own.
The Tories have galloped off into a fairyland of Ed baiting mapped out by their press backers and made themselves ridiculous and irrelevant.
Ed couldn't ask for better enemies.
Labour should study the rise and fall of the BQ in Canada in order to have a blueprint to deal with the SNP.
Apart from Brown, who's in his own special category of awfulness in every respect, I'd certainly say Kinnock, Callaghan, and Foot were worse for Labour. IDS and Heath worse for the Tories. (Merely as I see things of course)
The Tories are merely his opponents.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/entrepreneur-ivan-massow-announces-plan-to-run-for-london-mayor-in-2016-9879436.html