July now 2nd favourite ahead of Oct and Dec. Does somebody know something?
July 3.35 Oct 5.6 Nov 2.42 Dec 9
Lord Finklestein says he has heard chatter from government circles about a July election.
"Chatter". That could be anything from a minor ministers view to over excitable young SPADS speculating.
I'm not backing it. Sunak has said the Autumn and candidate selections are still ongoing.
November or December it will be.
Looking at the timetables...
House goes off for Whitsun holidays this Thursday. They come back Monday 3rd June. So if they want to do things conventionally, with a week or so of washup and saying goodbye and promising to write every day, earliest easy dissolution is June 12 with an election July 18.
Possible, and conventions can be broken, but not easy.
After that, the next natural dates are early September dissolution for a mid October election.
It smells like some wishful thinking and desire for exciting copy to me.
My eldest daughter turns 18 on July 20th and will be gutted if the election is on July 11th! She is hoping to vote in the US election later in the year though.
Interesting she qualifies for both. In 1979 I was 18 in the September but the election was in May. I was nearly finished my first year at University and was a bit cross I didn’t have a vote.
Curious thing is that we've had two fairly chunky NI cuts- 4p off is definitely in the "shameless bribe, but it's a bloody good one" range.
And yet not a ripple in the polls.
Some of that will be that it's just one cog in the machine, but it's amazing how ineffectual it has been, polling-wise.
Probably because most of the media enthusiastically reported that you were in worse off because of fiscal drift. When is a tax cut not a tax cut? When your bottom line goes down.
Opposite way around?
The client media including the BBC have reported Rishi's assertion that £900 tax cuts have been given to all taxpayers. That is arrant nonsense. When taxpayers have applied reality and no increase in their threshold they remain unconvinced that taxes have fallen.
Meanwhile prices ( now stable) have gone through the roof and mortgage repayments are stratospheric. Rishi says the economy is "going gangbusters". Voters are yet to feel that good news. Diesel back North of £1.60 a litre doesn't look like "going gangbusters" yet.
Where do you live? I got a tank at 151p for diesel yesterday. The only time I pay anything like that is when I get caught in a motorway service station.
The thing with tax rises / cuts, fiscal drag etc, most people actually don't pay super close attention to their pay slip and how those numbers are changing. I doubt people notice a difference of £50 here or there and certainly not how that compares to several years ago.
It is much more my bank account now has x, i need to pay mortgage, food, utility bills, etc etc, shit I have no money to afford all of this (or vice versa why Brown got away with so much fiscal drag as people still had money left over).
What we have had over the past few years is very high inflation, particular on utility bills, higher interest rates, already high house prices / rents and high taxes. It one thing after another, such that a tiny bit of relief won't do anything.
Yes fiscal drift is a lot less painful when wages are rising in real terms. It is now for the majority but few will forget how hard the last 2 years have been.
It is better to have a pay rise and pay more tax, than not have a pay rise at all.
Advocates Depute haven’t had a wage increase in 14 years. We are supposed to be getting one this week backdated to January. Our breath is well and truly bated.
The 6,000’ descent does now appear to be a red herring, coming from amateur reading of online ADSB flight data.
This is a more plausible reading, from a PPRuNe member: If you look at their flightpath in FR24, there are some altitude fluctuations at around 7.50UTC when the flight is at FL370 and still flying towards Singapore, just over Myanmar when they are about to go over the bay of Bengal. Flight is stable at 37000, then there is one datapoint at 37275, a few datapoints later they are at 36975. 10 minutes later, the flight changes it's heading towards Bangkok and descends to FL310 (which is the reported 6k feet "drop" which doesn't seem any more than a regular descent, after they decided to divert to BKK. After a couple of minutes at FL310, they continue their descent on approach into BKK. Squawk is changed to 7700 halfway into their descent. https://www.pprune.org/accidents-close-calls/659356-severe-turbulence-lhr-sin-one-dead.html#post11659807
300’ up and then 400’ back down again quickly, is more in the expected range of CAT disturbances. The 6,000’ descent was under control over the next few minutes, as the pilot declared an emergency and looked for the nearest suitable place to land.
Still extremely scary. From the guardian
“One passenger on the flight, Dzafran Azmir, a 28-year-old student, told Reuters: “Suddenly the aircraft starts tilting up and there was shaking so I started bracing for what was happening, and very suddenly there was a very dramatic drop so everyone seated and not wearing a seatbelt was launched immediately into the ceiling.
“Some people hit their heads on the baggage cabins overhead and dented it, they hit the places where lights and masks are and broke straight through it.””
Seven people with “critical head injuries”
Oh yeah, still scary as hell, but within the realm of normality for these rare events, as opposed to something so exceptional it would likely have written off the plane structurally.
(It’ll still need a damn good inspection though, and a fair amount of the interior replacing, definitely won’t be going anywhere for a while).
To smash your head against the airplan seat lights and whatnot - and to do it so hard that you actually break THROUGH them - you must be launched with enormous force
And this is UPWARDS. Yikes
You are not launched upwards. You remain where you are. It is the plane that is launched downwards on your head with considerable force.
Although aren't you in fact moving backwards because the earth is spinning at a faster speed than the plane? Or something like that.
This is the first time I can remember a fatality being reported as a result of turbulence.
No, it's not entirely unknown. But thankfully very rare, these days
The deceased has been reported as being a 73-year-old man. Could be a serious head injury, or a heart attack, or a number of other possible traumas. Very sad, but not particularly unknown.
It’s not often reported, but *hundreds* of cabin crew end up in the hospital every year as a result of injuries sustained in turbulence.
Apparently a heart attack. But seven people are "fighting for their lives" after smashing their heads against the overhead bins. This isn't very resssuring for me as I prepare to take a flight on one of Europe's worst airlines next week
Oh well. Time to go buy food for a calming laksa
Plus ensure you have your seatbelt on when in turbulence
The only way to do that is have it on all the time
Which I do. It's just as comfortable on as off, so a no-brainer.
We learnt many years ago to wear it all the times, even on long flights which we often took including Sydney to Johannesburg 15 hour day flight
The 6,000’ descent does now appear to be a red herring, coming from amateur reading of online ADSB flight data.
This is a more plausible reading, from a PPRuNe member: If you look at their flightpath in FR24, there are some altitude fluctuations at around 7.50UTC when the flight is at FL370 and still flying towards Singapore, just over Myanmar when they are about to go over the bay of Bengal. Flight is stable at 37000, then there is one datapoint at 37275, a few datapoints later they are at 36975. 10 minutes later, the flight changes it's heading towards Bangkok and descends to FL310 (which is the reported 6k feet "drop" which doesn't seem any more than a regular descent, after they decided to divert to BKK. After a couple of minutes at FL310, they continue their descent on approach into BKK. Squawk is changed to 7700 halfway into their descent. https://www.pprune.org/accidents-close-calls/659356-severe-turbulence-lhr-sin-one-dead.html#post11659807
300’ up and then 400’ back down again quickly, is more in the expected range of CAT disturbances. The 6,000’ descent was under control over the next few minutes, as the pilot declared an emergency and looked for the nearest suitable place to land.
Still extremely scary. From the guardian
“One passenger on the flight, Dzafran Azmir, a 28-year-old student, told Reuters: “Suddenly the aircraft starts tilting up and there was shaking so I started bracing for what was happening, and very suddenly there was a very dramatic drop so everyone seated and not wearing a seatbelt was launched immediately into the ceiling.
“Some people hit their heads on the baggage cabins overhead and dented it, they hit the places where lights and masks are and broke straight through it.””
Seven people with “critical head injuries”
Oh yeah, still scary as hell, but within the realm of normality for these rare events, as opposed to something so exceptional it would likely have written off the plane structurally.
(It’ll still need a damn good inspection though, and a fair amount of the interior replacing, definitely won’t be going anywhere for a while).
To smash your head against the airplan seat lights and whatnot - and to do it so hard that you actually break THROUGH them - you must be launched with enormous force
And this is UPWARDS. Yikes
You are not launched upwards. You remain where you are. It is the plane that is launched downwards on your head with considerable force.
Although aren't you in fact moving backwards because the earth is spinning at a faster speed than the plane? Or something like that.
The air above, and planes within it, is moving at almost the same speed as the earth, so the net effect is minimal.
The 6,000’ descent does now appear to be a red herring, coming from amateur reading of online ADSB flight data.
This is a more plausible reading, from a PPRuNe member: If you look at their flightpath in FR24, there are some altitude fluctuations at around 7.50UTC when the flight is at FL370 and still flying towards Singapore, just over Myanmar when they are about to go over the bay of Bengal. Flight is stable at 37000, then there is one datapoint at 37275, a few datapoints later they are at 36975. 10 minutes later, the flight changes it's heading towards Bangkok and descends to FL310 (which is the reported 6k feet "drop" which doesn't seem any more than a regular descent, after they decided to divert to BKK. After a couple of minutes at FL310, they continue their descent on approach into BKK. Squawk is changed to 7700 halfway into their descent. https://www.pprune.org/accidents-close-calls/659356-severe-turbulence-lhr-sin-one-dead.html#post11659807
300’ up and then 400’ back down again quickly, is more in the expected range of CAT disturbances. The 6,000’ descent was under control over the next few minutes, as the pilot declared an emergency and looked for the nearest suitable place to land.
Still extremely scary. From the guardian
“One passenger on the flight, Dzafran Azmir, a 28-year-old student, told Reuters: “Suddenly the aircraft starts tilting up and there was shaking so I started bracing for what was happening, and very suddenly there was a very dramatic drop so everyone seated and not wearing a seatbelt was launched immediately into the ceiling.
“Some people hit their heads on the baggage cabins overhead and dented it, they hit the places where lights and masks are and broke straight through it.””
Seven people with “critical head injuries”
Oh yeah, still scary as hell, but within the realm of normality for these rare events, as opposed to something so exceptional it would likely have written off the plane structurally.
(It’ll still need a damn good inspection though, and a fair amount of the interior replacing, definitely won’t be going anywhere for a while).
To smash your head against the airplan seat lights and whatnot - and to do it so hard that you actually break THROUGH them - you must be launched with enormous force
And this is UPWARDS. Yikes
You are not launched upwards. You remain where you are. It is the plane that is launched downwards on your head with considerable force.
Although aren't you in fact moving backwards because the earth is spinning at a faster speed than the plane? Or something like that.
You are also traveling at 67,000 mph around the sun and at 520,000 mph around the centre of our galaxy. But so is the plane.
The 6,000’ descent does now appear to be a red herring, coming from amateur reading of online ADSB flight data.
This is a more plausible reading, from a PPRuNe member: If you look at their flightpath in FR24, there are some altitude fluctuations at around 7.50UTC when the flight is at FL370 and still flying towards Singapore, just over Myanmar when they are about to go over the bay of Bengal. Flight is stable at 37000, then there is one datapoint at 37275, a few datapoints later they are at 36975. 10 minutes later, the flight changes it's heading towards Bangkok and descends to FL310 (which is the reported 6k feet "drop" which doesn't seem any more than a regular descent, after they decided to divert to BKK. After a couple of minutes at FL310, they continue their descent on approach into BKK. Squawk is changed to 7700 halfway into their descent. https://www.pprune.org/accidents-close-calls/659356-severe-turbulence-lhr-sin-one-dead.html#post11659807
300’ up and then 400’ back down again quickly, is more in the expected range of CAT disturbances. The 6,000’ descent was under control over the next few minutes, as the pilot declared an emergency and looked for the nearest suitable place to land.
Still extremely scary. From the guardian
“One passenger on the flight, Dzafran Azmir, a 28-year-old student, told Reuters: “Suddenly the aircraft starts tilting up and there was shaking so I started bracing for what was happening, and very suddenly there was a very dramatic drop so everyone seated and not wearing a seatbelt was launched immediately into the ceiling.
“Some people hit their heads on the baggage cabins overhead and dented it, they hit the places where lights and masks are and broke straight through it.””
Seven people with “critical head injuries”
Oh yeah, still scary as hell, but within the realm of normality for these rare events, as opposed to something so exceptional it would likely have written off the plane structurally.
(It’ll still need a damn good inspection though, and a fair amount of the interior replacing, definitely won’t be going anywhere for a while).
To smash your head against the airplan seat lights and whatnot - and to do it so hard that you actually break THROUGH them - you must be launched with enormous force
And this is UPWARDS. Yikes
You are not launched upwards. You remain where you are. It is the plane that is launched downwards on your head with considerable force.
Although aren't you in fact moving backwards because the earth is spinning at a faster speed than the plane? Or something like that.
You are also traveling at 67,000 mph around the sun and at 520,000 mph around the centre of our galaxy. But so is the plane.
The Tories are facing a heavy defeat on a 1997 scale but not an extinction level defeat a la the Canadian Tories in 1993. That would require them to be heading for less than 10 seats and being overtaken by Reform on votes and seats with Farage returning to become Leader of the Opposition to a Starmer government
I think you’d find Sir Ed Davey would be the leader of the opposition in the unlikely but pleasing event of this scenario coming to pass.
Curious thing is that we've had two fairly chunky NI cuts- 4p off is definitely in the "shameless bribe, but it's a bloody good one" range.
And yet not a ripple in the polls.
Some of that will be that it's just one cog in the machine, but it's amazing how ineffectual it has been, polling-wise.
Probably because most of the media enthusiastically reported that you were in worse off because of fiscal drift. When is a tax cut not a tax cut? When your bottom line goes down.
Opposite way around?
The client media including the BBC have reported Rishi's assertion that £900 tax cuts have been given to all taxpayers. That is arrant nonsense. When taxpayers have applied reality and no increase in their threshold they remain unconvinced that taxes have fallen.
Meanwhile prices ( now stable) have gone through the roof and mortgage repayments are stratospheric. Rishi says the economy is "going gangbusters". Voters are yet to feel that good news. Diesel back North of £1.60 a litre doesn't look like "going gangbusters" yet.
Where do you live? I got a tank at 151p for diesel yesterday. The only time I pay anything like that is when I get caught in a motorway service station.
1.527 here in Llandudno
1.56 in Ilford, also saw 1.56 in Scarborough last week.
This is the first time I can remember a fatality being reported as a result of turbulence.
No, it's not entirely unknown. But thankfully very rare, these days
The deceased has been reported as being a 73-year-old man. Could be a serious head injury, or a heart attack, or a number of other possible traumas. Very sad, but not particularly unknown.
It’s not often reported, but *hundreds* of cabin crew end up in the hospital every year as a result of injuries sustained in turbulence.
Apparently a heart attack. But seven people are "fighting for their lives" after smashing their heads against the overhead bins. This isn't very resssuring for me as I prepare to take a flight on one of Europe's worst airlines next week
Oh well. Time to go buy food for a calming laksa
Plus ensure you have your seatbelt on when in turbulence
The only way to do that is have it on all the time
Which I do. It's just as comfortable on as off, so a no-brainer.
We learnt many years ago to wear it all the times, even on long flights which we often took including Sydney to Johannesburg 15 hour day flight
I wonder if we'll see a surge of deep vein thrombosis cases - it's already much more common than injuries from turbulence, and will likely become more so if people start to fear ever leaving their seats on long-haul flights.
That's the sort of thing that can put people off flying again for life. Not just the passengers but sometimes the cabin crew too.
Jesus.
The closest I have ever come to drinking alcohol was when I experienced very bad turbulence.
Afterwards the pilot observed it wasn't even in the top 50 of bad turbulence he had ever experienced.
It's a different matter for the pilots.
I do wonder how blasé some of them are about it. Maybe because they're incentivised for rapid turnaround and maybe even welcome a challenge given how boring flights can be.
It should be a core duty of pilots (recognising this isn't always possible) to avoid all sorts of turbulence, and airlines to prioritise comfort and safety over absolute speed.
Oh they do. Pilots really don’t like turbulence either, and airlines don’t like injuring their staff and customers, nor the maintainance costs on planes that result.
There’s quite a difference between everyday bumpiness, and unexpectedly banging into severe clear air turbulence.
I'm not convinced this would count as clear air turbulence given they were in the ITCZ.
I doubt they flew into a monster storm, but there would definitely have been storms in the vicinity.
Definitely a few storms in the area, and a number of planes were reportedly seen to deviate from planned routes, but as you say it’s the ITCZ, a turbulent part of the world.
Let’s see what comes up in the next few days, my suspicion is that this crew got horribly unlucky.
EU27: Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) no longer wants to sit in the same EU Parliament group as the German AfD, FAZ reports.
Alexandre Loubet, the campaign manager of the RN's lead candidate Jordan Bardella, announced this in the newspaper "Libération". It is unclear what this means for the future of their right-wing ID group. #EP2024 5:04 pm · 21 May 2024"
July now 2nd favourite ahead of Oct and Dec. Does somebody know something?
July 3.35 Oct 5.6 Nov 2.42 Dec 9
Lord Finklestein says he has heard chatter from government circles about a July election.
"Chatter". That could be anything from a minor ministers view to over excitable young SPADS speculating.
I'm not backing it. Sunak has said the Autumn and candidate selections are still ongoing.
November or December it will be.
Looking at the timetables...
House goes off for Whitsun holidays this Thursday. They come back Monday 3rd June. So if they want to do things conventionally, with a week or so of washup and saying goodbye and promising to write every day, earliest easy dissolution is June 12 with an election July 18.
Possible, and conventions can be broken, but not easy.
After that, the next natural dates are early September dissolution for a mid October election.
It smells like some wishful thinking and desire for exciting copy to me.
I wonder if there's also an element of not grasping the rules- the five week campaign (six with washup) is fairly recent. Ted Heath went from announcement to defeat in three weeks flat in 1974.
Finding an uninterrupted run of six weeks isn't as easy as it looks.
The Tories are facing a heavy defeat on a 1997 scale but not an extinction level defeat a la the Canadian Tories in 1993. That would require them to be heading for less than 10 seats and being overtaken by Reform on votes and seats with Farage returning to become Leader of the Opposition to a Starmer government
I think you’d find Sir Ed Davey would be the leader of the opposition in the unlikely but pleasing event of this scenario coming to pass.
Oh, how I’d laugh!
I'd be greatly surprised if they end up anything close to extinction levels (say below 30 MP'S). It's almost inevitable that the polls will tighten somewhat, to what extent is still for the birds really until we get a bit more on when the election will fall. October, November or possibly early December are all looking good. I can't see a January date really, buggering up Xmas will not give them votes. I still hedge around a seat total for the Tories of around 150. Not extinction, but a very, very poor performance, putting them out of power for at least 2 terms.
Curious thing is that we've had two fairly chunky NI cuts- 4p off is definitely in the "shameless bribe, but it's a bloody good one" range.
And yet not a ripple in the polls.
Some of that will be that it's just one cog in the machine, but it's amazing how ineffectual it has been, polling-wise.
Probably because most of the media enthusiastically reported that you were in worse off because of fiscal drift. When is a tax cut not a tax cut? When your bottom line goes down.
Opposite way around?
The client media including the BBC have reported Rishi's assertion that £900 tax cuts have been given to all taxpayers. That is arrant nonsense. When taxpayers have applied reality and no increase in their threshold they remain unconvinced that taxes have fallen.
Meanwhile prices ( now stable) have gone through the roof and mortgage repayments are stratospheric. Rishi says the economy is "going gangbusters". Voters are yet to feel that good news. Diesel back North of £1.60 a litre doesn't look like "going gangbusters" yet.
Where do you live? I got a tank at 151p for diesel yesterday. The only time I pay anything like that is when I get caught in a motorway service station.
1.527 here in Llandudno
1.56 in Ilford, also saw 1.56 in Scarborough last week.
Diesel has gone heavily odds-on in suburbs across the country.
It's not impossible the election could be in early February, even though it officially has to be held by the end of January.
That's a calendrical claim that requires dates. The HoC library thinks this:
"If the current Parliament is not dissolved early, it would dissolve automatically on 17 December 2024; and the general election would follow on Tuesday 28 January 2025."
My eldest daughter turns 18 on July 20th and will be gutted if the election is on July 11th! She is hoping to vote in the US election later in the year though.
Interesting she qualifies for both. In 1979 I was 18 in the September but the election was in May. I was nearly finished my first year at University and was a bit cross I didn’t have a vote.
I missed voting in that 1979 election too, by a few days, but was able to vote in the first EEC election a few weeks later.
The Tories are facing a heavy defeat on a 1997 scale but not an extinction level defeat a la the Canadian Tories in 1993. That would require them to be heading for less than 10 seats and being overtaken by Reform on votes and seats with Farage returning to become Leader of the Opposition to a Starmer government
Proportionately, it would be 4 or 5 seats! (156=>2 == 365=>4.68) Which would be quite extraordinary. And, as you say, almost impossible.
That said, anything less than ~50-60 seats would be something close to functional obliteration. Somewhat unlikely but not impossible.
Even functional obliteration is not extinction level eg the Tories could still be the main Opposition on 50-60 seats especially with the collapse of the SNP and if the vast majority of their seats are lost to Labour not the LDs
It's not impossible the election could be in early February, even though it officially has to be held by the end of January.
That's a calendrical claim that requires dates. The HoC library thinks this:
"If the current Parliament is not dissolved early, it would dissolve automatically on 17 December 2024; and the general election would follow on Tuesday 28 January 2025."
That's true, but Rishi could say to Starmer: do you really want the campaign to start between Christmas and new year? Instead we could agree to extend the date of the election by a couple of weeks to avoid that, by passing a one line law, similar to the one that overrode the fixed term parliament act in 2017. If Starmer refuses, Rishi goes ahead with the awkward campaign starting at the end of December.
My eldest daughter turns 18 on July 20th and will be gutted if the election is on July 11th! She is hoping to vote in the US election later in the year though.
The DUP would never speak to the Tories again if they were expected to turn up at an election count on the 11th night rather than dancing round a giant bonfire whilst drinking Buckfast...
The Tories are facing a heavy defeat on a 1997 scale but not an extinction level defeat a la the Canadian Tories in 1993. That would require them to be heading for less than 10 seats and being overtaken by Reform on votes and seats with Farage returning to become Leader of the Opposition to a Starmer government
I think you’d find Sir Ed Davey would be the leader of the opposition in the unlikely but pleasing event of this scenario coming to pass.
The Tories are facing a heavy defeat on a 1997 scale but not an extinction level defeat a la the Canadian Tories in 1993. That would require them to be heading for less than 10 seats and being overtaken by Reform on votes and seats with Farage returning to become Leader of the Opposition to a Starmer government
I think you’d find Sir Ed Davey would be the leader of the opposition in the unlikely but pleasing event of this scenario coming to pass.
The Tories are facing a heavy defeat on a 1997 scale but not an extinction level defeat a la the Canadian Tories in 1993. That would require them to be heading for less than 10 seats and being overtaken by Reform on votes and seats with Farage returning to become Leader of the Opposition to a Starmer government
I think you’d find Sir Ed Davey would be the leader of the opposition in the unlikely but pleasing event of this scenario coming to pass.
The Tories are facing a heavy defeat on a 1997 scale but not an extinction level defeat a la the Canadian Tories in 1993. That would require them to be heading for less than 10 seats and being overtaken by Reform on votes and seats with Farage returning to become Leader of the Opposition to a Starmer government
I think you’d find Sir Ed Davey would be the leader of the opposition in the unlikely but pleasing event of this scenario coming to pass.
The Tories are facing a heavy defeat on a 1997 scale but not an extinction level defeat a la the Canadian Tories in 1993. That would require them to be heading for less than 10 seats and being overtaken by Reform on votes and seats with Farage returning to become Leader of the Opposition to a Starmer government
I think you’d find Sir Ed Davey would be the leader of the opposition in the unlikely but pleasing event of this scenario coming to pass.
The thing with tax rises / cuts, fiscal drag etc, most people actually don't pay super close attention to their pay slip and how those numbers are changing. I doubt people notice a difference of £50 here or there and certainly not how that compares to several years ago.
It is much more my bank account now has x, i need to pay mortgage, food, utility bills, etc etc, shit I have no money to afford all of this (or vice versa why Brown got away with so much fiscal drag as people still had money left over).
What we have had over the past few years is very high inflation, particular on utility bills, higher interest rates, already high house prices / rents and high taxes. It one thing after another, such that a tiny bit of relief won't do anything.
If the government boast of cutting taxes, but you don't feel better off, the obvious thing to conclude is that the government cut other people's taxes and, as we know, that's exactly the opposite way round to the way most people want things - other people should be paying more tax to pay for nice things while my taxes are cut.
NEW: Rishi Sunak has backed away from making any radical reforms to the graduate visa route, after a cabinet backlash and warnings that driving away foreign students could undermine Britain’s universities.
The prime minister is set to announce plans to stamp out abuse of the visa system but will confirm that the graduate route, which allows international students to stay for two years after completing their studies, should remain open.
The 6,000’ descent does now appear to be a red herring, coming from amateur reading of online ADSB flight data.
This is a more plausible reading, from a PPRuNe member: If you look at their flightpath in FR24, there are some altitude fluctuations at around 7.50UTC when the flight is at FL370 and still flying towards Singapore, just over Myanmar when they are about to go over the bay of Bengal. Flight is stable at 37000, then there is one datapoint at 37275, a few datapoints later they are at 36975. 10 minutes later, the flight changes it's heading towards Bangkok and descends to FL310 (which is the reported 6k feet "drop" which doesn't seem any more than a regular descent, after they decided to divert to BKK. After a couple of minutes at FL310, they continue their descent on approach into BKK. Squawk is changed to 7700 halfway into their descent. https://www.pprune.org/accidents-close-calls/659356-severe-turbulence-lhr-sin-one-dead.html#post11659807
300’ up and then 400’ back down again quickly, is more in the expected range of CAT disturbances. The 6,000’ descent was under control over the next few minutes, as the pilot declared an emergency and looked for the nearest suitable place to land.
Still extremely scary. From the guardian
“One passenger on the flight, Dzafran Azmir, a 28-year-old student, told Reuters: “Suddenly the aircraft starts tilting up and there was shaking so I started bracing for what was happening, and very suddenly there was a very dramatic drop so everyone seated and not wearing a seatbelt was launched immediately into the ceiling.
“Some people hit their heads on the baggage cabins overhead and dented it, they hit the places where lights and masks are and broke straight through it.””
Seven people with “critical head injuries”
Oh yeah, still scary as hell, but within the realm of normality for these rare events, as opposed to something so exceptional it would likely have written off the plane structurally.
(It’ll still need a damn good inspection though, and a fair amount of the interior replacing, definitely won’t be going anywhere for a while).
To smash your head against the airplan seat lights and whatnot - and to do it so hard that you actually break THROUGH them - you must be launched with enormous force
And this is UPWARDS. Yikes
You are not launched upwards. You remain where you are. It is the plane that is launched downwards on your head with considerable force.
The thing with tax rises / cuts, fiscal drag etc, most people actually don't pay super close attention to their pay slip and how those numbers are changing. I doubt people notice a difference of £50 here or there and certainly not how that compares to several years ago.
It is much more my bank account now has x, i need to pay mortgage, food, utility bills, etc etc, shit I have no money to afford all of this (or vice versa why Brown got away with so much fiscal drag as people still had money left over).
What we have had over the past few years is very high inflation, particular on utility bills, higher interest rates, already high house prices / rents and high taxes. It one thing after another, such that a tiny bit of relief won't do anything.
If the government boast of cutting taxes, but you don't feel better off, the obvious thing to conclude is that the government cut other people's taxes and, as we know, that's exactly the opposite way round to the way most people want things - other people should be paying more tax to pay for nice things while my taxes are cut.
And we've seen how that's worked out for the one group of people who do feel better off, property-owning retirees: they're livid over the NICs cut!
It's enough to make you feel a bit sorry for Rishi & co - they must be wishing they could stretch this parliament out for another 12-18 months.
I always thought the Rabbit R1 was dodgy. $200 one off, no subscription, never added up...seems it is far worse than the fact the plastic box is just using somebody else's AI model and it doesn't work very well...
Wonder if low CPI inflation tomorrow has been leaked somewhere, causing the shortening of a July election. It wouldn't surprise me if the Treasury is informed in advance.
Markets forecast a drop to 2.1% annual rate, so a fall to below 2% is well within the margin of error.
Sunak may decide to go off the back of some good news. The 'waiting game' hasn't paid off so far, and so at least this gives him some control over the timing before his hand is forced in the Autumn.
NEW: Rishi Sunak has backed away from making any radical reforms to the graduate visa route, after a cabinet backlash and warnings that driving away foreign students could undermine Britain’s universities.
The prime minister is set to announce plans to stamp out abuse of the visa system but will confirm that the graduate route, which allows international students to stay for two years after completing their studies, should remain open.
Prices increased by a quarter in the past three years. Even though household incomes have nearly kept up, it's the sticker shock people notice. Also people are saving more, which might be a good thing but has the effect of making them poorer in the meantime. Overall about 4% down in ability to spend.
Wonder if low CPI inflation tomorrow has been leaked somewhere, causing the shortening of a July election. It wouldn't surprise me if the Treasury is informed in advance.
Markets forecast a drop to 2.1% annual rate, so a fall to below 2% is well within the margin of error.
Sunak may decide to go off the back of some good news. The 'waiting game' hasn't paid off so far, and so at least this gives him some control over the timing before his hand is forced in the Autumn.
On the one hand, I'm of the opinion that tactically going sooner is better for Rishi because the longer he leaves it, the more people who were on 1.75% mortgage deals wind up in 4.75% deals - and tbh them winding up on 4.5% deals instead isn't going to win him many votes.
Which leaves him with his other option - wait, and hope that "something will turn up". One example of that might be Labour tearing itself apart over Gaza and the Galloway Squad doing for Labour what ReFUK are currently doing for the Tories. That's plausible.
So I don't see any advantage in Sunak going after one small "cut" in interest rates. But I do see an advantage for him in potentially hanging on.
Therefore on balance I'm of the view he will drag us to the polls in November, December or even January. I could believe ~12th December as it will be exactly 5 years since the last one.
Wonder if low CPI inflation tomorrow has been leaked somewhere, causing the shortening of a July election. It wouldn't surprise me if the Treasury is informed in advance.
Markets forecast a drop to 2.1% annual rate, so a fall to below 2% is well within the margin of error.
Sunak may decide to go off the back of some good news. The 'waiting game' hasn't paid off so far, and so at least this gives him some control over the timing before his hand is forced in the Autumn.
My highly sophisticated projection 😆 is 2.4% but it could be less maybe sub 2%. So yes Rishi might call it tomorrow or next week.
The Scottish culture secretary has demanded an urgent meeting with Creative Scotland to discuss why an arts project involving real sex was given over £100,000 in funding.
Angus Robertson said he is "deeply concerned" about documents obtained by BBC Scotland News which show the original funding application made clear the project would involve real sex.
Is Poch a metaphor for Sunak? In recent weeks, Chelsea have improved significantly and the manager's work is beginning to pay dividends. But we're going to sack him anyway.
In recent weeks, the UK economy has begun to improve.............
Silly decision, they were getting it together and I was worried how good they could be next season after a proper pre-season. Whoever comes in has to start again and no doubt buy and sell players they want. Great news.
Is Poch a metaphor for Sunak? In recent weeks, Chelsea have improved significantly and the manager's work is beginning to pay dividends. But we're going to sack him anyway.
In recent weeks, the UK economy has begun to improve.............
I was toying of doing a piece wondering if Rishi Sunak is the Harry Kane of politics..
Is Poch a metaphor for Sunak? In recent weeks, Chelsea have improved significantly and the manager's work is beginning to pay dividends. But we're going to sack him anyway.
In recent weeks, the UK economy has begun to improve.............
I was toying of doing a piece wondering if Rishi Sunak is the Harry Kane of politics..
Wonder if low CPI inflation tomorrow has been leaked somewhere, causing the shortening of a July election. It wouldn't surprise me if the Treasury is informed in advance.
Markets forecast a drop to 2.1% annual rate, so a fall to below 2% is well within the margin of error.
Sunak may decide to go off the back of some good news. The 'waiting game' hasn't paid off so far, and so at least this gives him some control over the timing before his hand is forced in the Autumn.
On the one hand, I'm of the opinion that tactically going sooner is better for Rishi because the longer he leaves it, the more people who were on 1.75% mortgage deals wind up in 4.75% deals - and tbh them winding up on 4.5% deals instead isn't going to win him many votes.
Which leaves him with his other option - wait, and hope that "something will turn up". One example of that might be Labour tearing itself apart over Gaza and the Galloway Squad doing for Labour what ReFUK are currently doing for the Tories. That's plausible.
So I don't see any advantage in Sunak going after one small "cut" in interest rates. But I do see an advantage for him in potentially hanging on.
Therefore on balance I'm of the view he will drag us to the polls in November, December or even January. I could believe ~12th December as it will be exactly 5 years since the last one.
Don't think Labour will tear itself apart on Gaza - primarily as except for a relatively small group of people who are extremely angry, the desire to kick out the Tories is a powerful motivator, in the same way that in 2017 Brexit was quite a powerful motivator in the other direction for those who disliked Corbyn to stick with the party.
Plus Labour's position has subtly shifted to one that's more critical as the war has gone on. It's also not implausible that Israeli politics will replace Netanyahu with a more sympathetic leader. Or Iran and its proxies do something that makes clear why Israel has to be robust in its defence.
Plus the one thing that makes Galloway effective to some audiences and in byelections - his willingness to say the nastier aspects of anti-Israel politics out loud and stir up community tensions - prevents him from building the kind of movement that could do that sort of damage to Labour by peeling off its more left-wing and pro-Palestine voters en masse. He's burnt many bridges with the Labour left due to comments about women and and homosexuality,
Is Poch a metaphor for Sunak? In recent weeks, Chelsea have improved significantly and the manager's work is beginning to pay dividends. But we're going to sack him anyway.
In recent weeks, the UK economy has begun to improve.............
I was toying of doing a piece wondering if Rishi Sunak is the Harry Kane of politics..
He’s more the Ole Gunner Solskaer, coming in when the team are on their arses, still living under the shadow of a titan with years of success, young, feted in some circles, eat out to help out was his winner v Bayern, on a hiding to nothing with any replacement facing the same problem with the foundations.The whole set up needing tearing down and rethinking.
Wonder if low CPI inflation tomorrow has been leaked somewhere, causing the shortening of a July election. It wouldn't surprise me if the Treasury is informed in advance.
Markets forecast a drop to 2.1% annual rate, so a fall to below 2% is well within the margin of error.
Sunak may decide to go off the back of some good news. The 'waiting game' hasn't paid off so far, and so at least this gives him some control over the timing before his hand is forced in the Autumn.
On the one hand, I'm of the opinion that tactically going sooner is better for Rishi because the longer he leaves it, the more people who were on 1.75% mortgage deals wind up in 4.75% deals - and tbh them winding up on 4.5% deals instead isn't going to win him many votes.
Which leaves him with his other option - wait, and hope that "something will turn up". One example of that might be Labour tearing itself apart over Gaza and the Galloway Squad doing for Labour what ReFUK are currently doing for the Tories. That's plausible.
So I don't see any advantage in Sunak going after one small "cut" in interest rates. But I do see an advantage for him in potentially hanging on.
Therefore on balance I'm of the view he will drag us to the polls in November, December or even January. I could believe ~12th December as it will be exactly 5 years since the last one.
Don't think Labour will tear itself apart on Gaza - primarily as except for a relatively small group of people who are extremely angry, the desire to kick out the Tories is a powerful motivator, in the same way that in 2017 Brexit was quite a powerful motivator in the other direction for those who disliked Corbyn to stick with the party.
Plus Labour's position has subtly shifted to one that's more critical as the war has gone on. It's also not implausible that Israeli politics will replace Netanyahu with a more sympathetic leader. Or Iran and its proxies do something that makes clear why Israel has to be robust in its defence.
Plus the one thing that makes Galloway effective to some audiences and in byelections - his willingness to say the nastier aspects of anti-Israel politics out loud and stir up community tensions - prevents him from building the kind of movement that could do that sort of damage to Labour by peeling off its more left-wing and pro-Palestine voters en masse. He's burnt many bridges with the Labour left due to comments about women and and homosexuality,
Fair, and I agree.
But if I were Rishi wargaming this, I'd be saying "i'd rather wait til December on the 1 in 20 chance Labour tears itself apart over Gaza, than go in July on the back of a .25% interest rate cut that won't make an arse bit of difference to anyone who's already remortgaged from 1.75% to 4.75%, or is due to remortgage to 4.5% if we do see a minor cut"
The dude needs a hail mary pass, and a .25% interest rate cut isn't it.
Wonder if low CPI inflation tomorrow has been leaked somewhere, causing the shortening of a July election. It wouldn't surprise me if the Treasury is informed in advance.
Markets forecast a drop to 2.1% annual rate, so a fall to below 2% is well within the margin of error.
Sunak may decide to go off the back of some good news. The 'waiting game' hasn't paid off so far, and so at least this gives him some control over the timing before his hand is forced in the Autumn.
On the one hand, I'm of the opinion that tactically going sooner is better for Rishi because the longer he leaves it, the more people who were on 1.75% mortgage deals wind up in 4.75% deals - and tbh them winding up on 4.5% deals instead isn't going to win him many votes.
Which leaves him with his other option - wait, and hope that "something will turn up". One example of that might be Labour tearing itself apart over Gaza and the Galloway Squad doing for Labour what ReFUK are currently doing for the Tories. That's plausible.
So I don't see any advantage in Sunak going after one small "cut" in interest rates. But I do see an advantage for him in potentially hanging on.
Therefore on balance I'm of the view he will drag us to the polls in November, December or even January. I could believe ~12th December as it will be exactly 5 years since the last one.
Don't think Labour will tear itself apart on Gaza - primarily as except for a relatively small group of people who are extremely angry, the desire to kick out the Tories is a powerful motivator, in the same way that in 2017 Brexit was quite a powerful motivator in the other direction for those who disliked Corbyn to stick with the party.
Plus Labour's position has subtly shifted to one that's more critical as the war has gone on. It's also not implausible that Israeli politics will replace Netanyahu with a more sympathetic leader. Or Iran and its proxies do something that makes clear why Israel has to be robust in its defence.
Plus the one thing that makes Galloway effective to some audiences and in byelections - his willingness to say the nastier aspects of anti-Israel politics out loud and stir up community tensions - prevents him from building the kind of movement that could do that sort of damage to Labour by peeling off its more left-wing and pro-Palestine voters en masse. He's burnt many bridges with the Labour left due to comments about women and and homosexuality,
Not to mention climate, abortion the EU, to name three more off the top of my head.
Is Poch a metaphor for Sunak? In recent weeks, Chelsea have improved significantly and the manager's work is beginning to pay dividends. But we're going to sack him anyway.
In recent weeks, the UK economy has begun to improve.............
I was toying of doing a piece wondering if Rishi Sunak is the Harry Kane of politics..
He’s more the Ole Gunner Solskaer, coming in when the team are on their arses, still living under the shadow of a titan with years of success, young, feted in some circles, eat out to help out was his winner v Bayern, on a hiding to nothing with any replacement facing the same problem with the foundations.The whole set up needing tearing down and rethinking.
Curious thing is that we've had two fairly chunky NI cuts- 4p off is definitely in the "shameless bribe, but it's a bloody good one" range.
And yet not a ripple in the polls.
Some of that will be that it's just one cog in the machine, but it's amazing how ineffectual it has been, polling-wise.
Probably because most of the media enthusiastically reported that you were in worse off because of fiscal drift. When is a tax cut not a tax cut? When your bottom line goes down.
Opposite way around?
The client media including the BBC have reported Rishi's assertion that £900 tax cuts have been given to all taxpayers. That is arrant nonsense. When taxpayers have applied reality and no increase in their threshold they remain unconvinced that taxes have fallen.
Meanwhile prices ( now stable) have gone through the roof and mortgage repayments are stratospheric. Rishi says the economy is "going gangbusters". Voters are yet to feel that good news. Diesel back North of £1.60 a litre doesn't look like "going gangbusters" yet.
I posted a link to a WSJ graphic on the last thread about real term wealth increase of US families. Its basically zero over Biden's presidency, where as Trump's it was up significantly, and Biden is trying to same rhetoric, that the economy has never been so good, its absolutely flying.
The reality is those that hold assets it is, as stock market is well up, but those that don't, all that inflation has increased your McD's to $15, that isn't never going away.
Of course, that is the case in literally every country in the world.
It's why incumbent governments are being kicked out left, right and centre.
How does that bloke not get DVT....my understanding is he will go and do a month where he just flies and flies and flies. Then takes 2-3 months to edit and produce the videos.
My eldest daughter turns 18 on July 20th and will be gutted if the election is on July 11th! She is hoping to vote in the US election later in the year though.
I missed 1992 by about a month
Which meant I missed voting for the Liberal Democrat candidate in Bedfordshire North, a certain Michael Smithson.
Is Poch a metaphor for Sunak? In recent weeks, Chelsea have improved significantly and the manager's work is beginning to pay dividends. But we're going to sack him anyway.
In recent weeks, the UK economy has begun to improve.............
I was toying of doing a piece wondering if Rishi Sunak is the Harry Kane of politics..
He’s more the Ole Gunner Solskaer, coming in when the team are on their arses, still living under the shadow of a titan with years of success, young, feted in some circles, eat out to help out was his winner v Bayern, on a hiding to nothing with any replacement facing the same problem with the foundations.The whole set up needing tearing down and rethinking.
Does that make Jose Mourinho = Liz Truss?
There must be a moral somewhere, which escapes me, in the fact that lettuce prices have gone up 61%. Iceberg anyway.
Catherine Rampell @crampell · 3h Trump will not rule out placing restrictions on access to contraceptives. “We’re looking at that…It’s another issue that’s very interesting”
Catherine Rampell @crampell · 3h Trump will not rule out placing restrictions on access to contraceptives. “We’re looking at that…It’s another issue that’s very interesting”
Prices increased by a quarter in the past three years. Even though household incomes have nearly kept up, it's the sticker shock people notice. Also people are saving more, which might be a good thing but has the effect of making them poorer in the meantime. Overall about 4% down in ability to spend.
Catherine Rampell @crampell · 3h Trump will not rule out placing restrictions on access to contraceptives. “We’re looking at that…It’s another issue that’s very interesting”
Catherine Rampell @crampell · 3h Trump will not rule out placing restrictions on access to contraceptives. “We’re looking at that…It’s another issue that’s very interesting”
The Scottish culture secretary has demanded an urgent meeting with Creative Scotland to discuss why an arts project involving real sex was given over £100,000 in funding.
Angus Robertson said he is "deeply concerned" about documents obtained by BBC Scotland News which show the original funding application made clear the project would involve real sex.
Catherine Rampell @crampell · 3h Trump will not rule out placing restrictions on access to contraceptives. “We’re looking at that…It’s another issue that’s very interesting”
Catherine Rampell @crampell · 3h Trump will not rule out placing restrictions on access to contraceptives. “We’re looking at that…It’s another issue that’s very interesting”
Wonder if low CPI inflation tomorrow has been leaked somewhere, causing the shortening of a July election. It wouldn't surprise me if the Treasury is informed in advance.
Markets forecast a drop to 2.1% annual rate, so a fall to below 2% is well within the margin of error.
Sunak may decide to go off the back of some good news. The 'waiting game' hasn't paid off so far, and so at least this gives him some control over the timing before his hand is forced in the Autumn.
On the one hand, I'm of the opinion that tactically going sooner is better for Rishi because the longer he leaves it, the more people who were on 1.75% mortgage deals wind up in 4.75% deals - and tbh them winding up on 4.5% deals instead isn't going to win him many votes.
Which leaves him with his other option - wait, and hope that "something will turn up". One example of that might be Labour tearing itself apart over Gaza and the Galloway Squad doing for Labour what ReFUK are currently doing for the Tories. That's plausible.
So I don't see any advantage in Sunak going after one small "cut" in interest rates. But I do see an advantage for him in potentially hanging on.
Therefore on balance I'm of the view he will drag us to the polls in November, December or even January. I could believe ~12th December as it will be exactly 5 years since the last one.
Don't think Labour will tear itself apart on Gaza - primarily as except for a relatively small group of people who are extremely angry, the desire to kick out the Tories is a powerful motivator, in the same way that in 2017 Brexit was quite a powerful motivator in the other direction for those who disliked Corbyn to stick with the party.
Plus Labour's position has subtly shifted to one that's more critical as the war has gone on. It's also not implausible that Israeli politics will replace Netanyahu with a more sympathetic leader. Or Iran and its proxies do something that makes clear why Israel has to be robust in its defence.
Plus the one thing that makes Galloway effective to some audiences and in byelections - his willingness to say the nastier aspects of anti-Israel politics out loud and stir up community tensions - prevents him from building the kind of movement that could do that sort of damage to Labour by peeling off its more left-wing and pro-Palestine voters en masse. He's burnt many bridges with the Labour left due to comments about women and and homosexuality,
Fair, and I agree.
But if I were Rishi wargaming this, I'd be saying "i'd rather wait til December on the 1 in 20 chance Labour tears itself apart over Gaza, than go in July on the back of a .25% interest rate cut that won't make an arse bit of difference to anyone who's already remortgaged from 1.75% to 4.75%, or is due to remortgage to 4.5% if we do see a minor cut"
The dude needs a hail mary pass, and a .25% interest rate cut isn't it.
Yup. Just I wouldn't bet my future on Labour having a meltdown over Gaza. You'd say the point of maximum danger of that has passed, which was when there was a serious divide between the leadership along with those sympathetic to Israel's need to defend itself and those anti-military action. The longer the war goes on the more the Labour leadership demand it stops at any cost and talk about "the day after" plans where Labour factions are much more aligned.
Or something happens that either proves Israel's argument that it faces an existential threat to those on the left who are sceptical and horrified at Gaza but don't want Israel wiped off the map. Or conversely Netanyahu and Israel's radical right do something foul that makes any support untenable without a change of leadership.
If I were Sunak my hail Mary would be largesse that aims to actually create a boom safe in the knowledge he won't have to pay the long-term costs unless he makes a political comeback for the ages.
NEW: Rishi Sunak has backed away from making any radical reforms to the graduate visa route, after a cabinet backlash and warnings that driving away foreign students could undermine Britain’s universities.
The prime minister is set to announce plans to stamp out abuse of the visa system but will confirm that the graduate route, which allows international students to stay for two years after completing their studies, should remain open.
Catherine Rampell @crampell · 3h Trump will not rule out placing restrictions on access to contraceptives. “We’re looking at that…It’s another issue that’s very interesting”
Catherine Rampell @crampell · 3h Trump will not rule out placing restrictions on access to contraceptives. “We’re looking at that…It’s another issue that’s very interesting”
Catherine Rampell @crampell · 3h Trump will not rule out placing restrictions on access to contraceptives. “We’re looking at that…It’s another issue that’s very interesting”
Catherine Rampell @crampell · 3h Trump will not rule out placing restrictions on access to contraceptives. “We’re looking at that…It’s another issue that’s very interesting”
The Scottish culture secretary has demanded an urgent meeting with Creative Scotland to discuss why an arts project involving real sex was given over £100,000 in funding.
Angus Robertson said he is "deeply concerned" about documents obtained by BBC Scotland News which show the original funding application made clear the project would involve real sex.
The funding body Creative Scotland axed support for the Rein project in March, claiming they had not realised that real sex would be a part of the event.
But Rein's application acknowledged that development would involve "a sex scene with genital contact" involving three members of the cast.
The funding body Creative Scotland axed support for the Rein project in March, claiming they had not realised that real sex would be a part of the event.
But Rein's application acknowledged that development would involve "a sex scene with genital contact" involving three members of the cast.
Catherine Rampell @crampell · 3h Trump will not rule out placing restrictions on access to contraceptives. “We’re looking at that…It’s another issue that’s very interesting”
Sounds like a typical non-reply from Trump tbh - I don't think he'll touch it with a barge poll.
Agree. All the we are looking into it and it is interesting and coming up with a smart decision soon was all tosh. It hasn't even crossed his mind. Just trying to keep all onboard, which to be fair all politicians do as much as possible.
Catherine Rampell @crampell · 3h Trump will not rule out placing restrictions on access to contraceptives. “We’re looking at that…It’s another issue that’s very interesting”
Catherine Rampell @crampell · 3h Trump will not rule out placing restrictions on access to contraceptives. “We’re looking at that…It’s another issue that’s very interesting”
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cO533M9rFI
Let’s see what comes up in the next few days, my suspicion is that this crew got horribly unlucky.
EU27: Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) no longer wants to sit in the same EU Parliament group as the German AfD, FAZ reports.
Alexandre Loubet, the campaign manager of the RN's lead candidate Jordan Bardella, announced this in the newspaper "Libération". It is unclear what this means for the future of their right-wing ID group. #EP2024
5:04 pm · 21 May 2024"
https://x.com/EuropeElects/status/1792949501319073848
Finding an uninterrupted run of six weeks isn't as easy as it looks.
"If the current Parliament is not dissolved early, it would dissolve automatically on 17 December 2024; and the general election would follow on Tuesday 28 January 2025."
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn05085/
I suspect they are right.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=10&LAB=41&LIB=9&Reform=28&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.6&SCOTLAB=32.7&SCOTLIB=8&SCOTReform=5.7&SCOTGreen=3.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=31.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
The country needs to move on
And love of Brexit is dead and buried apart from a few on the right
https://youtu.be/OP_TA7YwzPU
NEW: Rishi Sunak has backed away from making any radical reforms to the graduate visa route, after a cabinet backlash and warnings that driving away foreign students could undermine Britain’s universities.
The prime minister is set to announce plans to stamp out abuse of the visa system but will confirm that the graduate route, which allows international students to stay for two years after completing their studies, should remain open.
https://x.com/AnnaSophieGross/status/1792970208497336380
It's enough to make you feel a bit sorry for Rishi & co - they must be wishing they could stretch this parliament out for another 12-18 months.
$30,000,000 AI Is Hiding a Scam
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPOHf20slZg
One, two, punch of MKBHD and now Coffezilla.
Markets forecast a drop to 2.1% annual rate, so a fall to below 2% is well within the margin of error.
Sunak may decide to go off the back of some good news. The 'waiting game' hasn't paid off so far, and so at least this gives him some control over the timing before his hand is forced in the Autumn.
https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/the-end-of-the-inflation-shock/
Which leaves him with his other option - wait, and hope that "something will turn up". One example of that might be Labour tearing itself apart over Gaza and the Galloway Squad doing for Labour what ReFUK are currently doing for the Tories. That's plausible.
So I don't see any advantage in Sunak going after one small "cut" in interest rates. But I do see an advantage for him in potentially hanging on.
Therefore on balance I'm of the view he will drag us to the polls in November, December or even January. I could believe ~12th December as it will be exactly 5 years since the last one.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/05/21/mauricio-pochettino-leaves-chelsea-live-updates/
Ex-Royal Marine charged with spying for China found dead in park
Matthew Trickett, 37, who was charged with spying on Hong Kong activists, was found on Sunday evening in Maidenhead park
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/may/21/ex-royal-marine-charged-with-spying-for-china-found-dead-in-park
Following the Tories approach to management!
Angus Robertson said he is "deeply concerned" about documents obtained by BBC Scotland News which show the original funding application made clear the project would involve real sex.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqq04v75p9o
In recent weeks, Chelsea have improved significantly and the manager's work is beginning to pay dividends.
But we're going to sack him anyway.
In recent weeks, the UK economy has begun to improve.............
Excellent.
Plus Labour's position has subtly shifted to one that's more critical as the war has gone on. It's also not implausible that Israeli politics will replace Netanyahu with a more sympathetic leader. Or Iran and its proxies do something that makes clear why Israel has to be robust in its defence.
Plus the one thing that makes Galloway effective to some audiences and in byelections - his willingness to say the nastier aspects of anti-Israel politics out loud and stir up community tensions - prevents him from building the kind of movement that could do that sort of damage to Labour by peeling off its more left-wing and pro-Palestine voters en masse. He's burnt many bridges with the Labour left due to comments about women and and homosexuality,
But if I were Rishi wargaming this, I'd be saying "i'd rather wait til December on the 1 in 20 chance Labour tears itself apart over Gaza, than go in July on the back of a .25% interest rate cut that won't make an arse bit of difference to anyone who's already remortgaged from 1.75% to 4.75%, or is due to remortgage to 4.5% if we do see a minor cut"
The dude needs a hail mary pass, and a .25% interest rate cut isn't it.
Entertaining youtube channel imo. Flying with Noel Phillips.
https://www.youtube.com/@FlyWithNoelPhilips/videos
It's why incumbent governments are being kicked out left, right and centre.
Which meant I missed voting for the Liberal Democrat candidate in Bedfordshire North, a certain Michael Smithson.
https://x.com/ft/status/1792971076701491550
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/21/three-years-of-pain-how-inflation-drove-the-uk-cost-of-living-crisis
@crampell
·
3h
Trump will not rule out placing restrictions on access to contraceptives. “We’re looking at that…It’s another issue that’s very interesting”
https://x.com/crampell/status/1792938599970746724
By Navy Seals killing every drug warlord in Mexico or something...
Or something happens that either proves Israel's argument that it faces an existential threat to those on the left who are sceptical and horrified at Gaza but don't want Israel wiped off the map. Or conversely Netanyahu and Israel's radical right do something foul that makes any support untenable without a change of leadership.
If I were Sunak my hail Mary would be largesse that aims to actually create a boom safe in the knowledge he won't have to pay the long-term costs unless he makes a political comeback for the ages.
Which is a terrible shame for popcorn merchants everywhere.