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Does this explain why there’s been no swingback this year? – politicalbetting.com

135

Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    HYUFD said:

    Rishi now polling lower than Liz did:

    image

    No was still lower in October 2022 on that chart
    Nope, he's just a tiny bit lower than October '22.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally I see Trump was persuaded not to commit suicide by giving evidence.

    Which is a terrible shame for popcorn merchants everywhere.

    You mean he wanted to testify but was stopped by the deep state (is what his fans will think)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited May 21

    GIN1138 said:

    Catherine Rampell
    @crampell
    ·
    3h
    Trump will not rule out placing restrictions on access to contraceptives. “We’re looking at that…It’s another issue that’s very interesting”

    https://x.com/crampell/status/1792938599970746724

    He could start with himself...
    Sounds like a typical non-reply from Trump tbh - I don't think he'll touch it with a barge poll.
    That would be appear to be a misinterpretation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/21/trump-contraception-abortion-00159118
    While he didn’t provide any details, he told KDKA political analyst Jon Delano that he plans to share a policy on contraception “very shortly.”

    “We’re looking at that, and I’m going to have a policy on that very shortly and I think it’s something that you’ll find interesting,” Trump said when asked if he supported any restrictions on a person’s right to contraception.

    KDKA declined to confirm to POLITICO when the interview was recorded, but the Biden campaign released video of the exchange on Tuesday.

    Trump added, “you will find it very smart. I think it’s a smart decision.”..



    Of course he was adamant he'd testify in court, too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    CatMan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally I see Trump was persuaded not to commit suicide by giving evidence.

    Which is a terrible shame for popcorn merchants everywhere.

    You mean he wanted to testify but was stopped by the deep state (is what his fans will think)
    I think the operative word is 'frit'.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Catherine Rampell
    @crampell
    ·
    3h
    Trump will not rule out placing restrictions on access to contraceptives. “We’re looking at that…It’s another issue that’s very interesting”

    https://x.com/crampell/status/1792938599970746724

    He could start with himself...
    Sounds like a typical non-reply from Trump tbh - I don't think he'll touch it with a barge poll.
    That would be appear to be a misinterpretation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/21/trump-contraception-abortion-00159118
    While he didn’t provide any details, he told KDKA political analyst Jon Delano that he plans to share a policy on contraception “very shortly.”

    “We’re looking at that, and I’m going to have a policy on that very shortly and I think it’s something that you’ll find interesting,” Trump said when asked if he supported any restrictions on a person’s right to contraception.

    KDKA declined to confirm to POLITICO when the interview was recorded, but the Biden campaign released video of the exchange on Tuesday.

    Trump added, “you will find it very smart. I think it’s a smart decision.”..

    He's going to allow only condoms that have his face on them?

    Well, it would work...
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    Jesus. Tory MP Has hands and feet amputated after contracting sepsis.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1792997193198055886?s=61
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433
    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally I see Trump was persuaded not to commit suicide by giving evidence.

    Which is a terrible shame for popcorn merchants everywhere.

    You mean he wanted to testify but was stopped by the deep state (is what his fans will think)
    I think the operative word is 'frit'.
    Everyone has said all along that Trump would be completely bonkers to testify. Now that he's decided not to, the confected scorn seems silly. Who are we campaigning too with these posts - there are very few people here with a vote in the US Presidential elections, and I don't see those with one being persuaded by comments here.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    Taz said:

    Jesus. Tory MP Has hands and feet amputated after contracting sepsis.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1792997193198055886?s=61

    Horrible thing, sepsis. Nearly had me once.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    This water bill forecast for 2025 onwards must be another nail in the Tory coffin. Not inconceivable Labour is going to be the main rightwing option at least economically in a decade or so time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Quite funny it got announced on the verge of a forecast absolutely biblical downpour
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Catherine Rampell
    @crampell
    ·
    3h
    Trump will not rule out placing restrictions on access to contraceptives. “We’re looking at that…It’s another issue that’s very interesting”

    https://x.com/crampell/status/1792938599970746724

    He could start with himself...
    Sounds like a typical non-reply from Trump tbh - I don't think he'll touch it with a barge poll.
    That would be appear to be a misinterpretation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/21/trump-contraception-abortion-00159118
    While he didn’t provide any details, he told KDKA political analyst Jon Delano that he plans to share a policy on contraception “very shortly.”

    “We’re looking at that, and I’m going to have a policy on that very shortly and I think it’s something that you’ll find interesting,” Trump said when asked if he supported any restrictions on a person’s right to contraception.

    KDKA declined to confirm to POLITICO when the interview was recorded, but the Biden campaign released video of the exchange on Tuesday.

    Trump added, “you will find it very smart. I think it’s a smart decision.”..

    He's going to allow only condoms that have his face on them?

    Well, it would work...
    Once upon a time I worked with a Family Planning outreach team. I found some really bizarre condoms. One was in the shape of a (very small) Christmas tree.

    I kid you not!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    MJW said:

    Hurrah for David Cameron.

    NEW: Rishi Sunak has backed away from making any radical reforms to the graduate visa route, after a cabinet backlash and warnings that driving away foreign students could undermine Britain’s universities.

    The prime minister is set to announce plans to stamp out abuse of the visa system but will confirm that the graduate route, which allows international students to stay for two years after completing their studies, should remain open.


    https://x.com/AnnaSophieGross/status/1792970208497336380

    A reminder that Sunak is absolutely terrible at the raw politics side of being PM.

    Glen O'Hara
    @gsoh31
    ·
    1h
    Well I think after all that a celebratory pint is in order. Cheers! 🍺🍻

    https://x.com/gsoh31/status/1792990088441323824
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,633
    A chance for Britain to use its Brexit freedoms:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/21/janet-yellen-eu-us-chinese-exports-tariffs-electric-vehicles

    Janet Yellen, the US treasury secretary, has urged the EU to intervene urgently to dampen the growing export levels of Chinese cut-price green technology including solar panels and wind turbines, pushing European leaders to move to a full-scale trade war.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally I see Trump was persuaded not to commit suicide by giving evidence.

    Which is a terrible shame for popcorn merchants everywhere.

    You mean he wanted to testify but was stopped by the deep state (is what his fans will think)
    I think the operative word is 'frit'.
    Everyone has said all along that Trump would be completely bonkers to testify. Now that he's decided not to, the confected scorn seems silly. Who are we campaigning too with these posts - there are very few people here with a vote in the US Presidential elections, and I don't see those with one being persuaded by comments here.
    OTOH look at PB on Scotland. It's just the same, most of the commentators have zero vote in Scotland, but feel free to comment. Same with Wales. Mind, the Sunderland Tories seem to think Wales is still part of England so perhaps one should be sympathetic.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433

    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally I see Trump was persuaded not to commit suicide by giving evidence.

    Which is a terrible shame for popcorn merchants everywhere.

    You mean he wanted to testify but was stopped by the deep state (is what his fans will think)
    I think the operative word is 'frit'.
    Everyone has said all along that Trump would be completely bonkers to testify. Now that he's decided not to, the confected scorn seems silly. Who are we campaigning too with these posts - there are very few people here with a vote in the US Presidential elections, and I don't see those with one being persuaded by comments here.
    Sorry about the 'too' - trying to have two conversations at once.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    A chance for Britain to use its Brexit freedoms:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/21/janet-yellen-eu-us-chinese-exports-tariffs-electric-vehicles

    Janet Yellen, the US treasury secretary, has urged the EU to intervene urgently to dampen the growing export levels of Chinese cut-price green technology including solar panels and wind turbines, pushing European leaders to move to a full-scale trade war.

    Still not used. Vide customs still a shambles.

    This is like expecting a chef to knock up a fine pasta meal when they haven't got past learning how not to burn the tinned spaghetti alphabetti.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190

    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally I see Trump was persuaded not to commit suicide by giving evidence.

    Which is a terrible shame for popcorn merchants everywhere.

    You mean he wanted to testify but was stopped by the deep state (is what his fans will think)
    I think the operative word is 'frit'.
    Everyone has said all along that Trump would be completely bonkers to testify. Now that he's decided not to, the confected scorn seems silly. Who are we campaigning too with these posts - there are very few people here with a vote in the US Presidential elections, and I don't see those with one being persuaded by comments here.
    You don't like people being rude about Trump?

    Who the hell can we be rude about if we can't be rude about that arsehat?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    The Irish government is completely losing control over the issue of asylum seekers/refugees/international protection applicants.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/social-affairs/2024/05/21/protests-prevent-international-protection-applicants-accessing-south-dublin-accommodation/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388

    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally I see Trump was persuaded not to commit suicide by giving evidence.

    Which is a terrible shame for popcorn merchants everywhere.

    You mean he wanted to testify but was stopped by the deep state (is what his fans will think)
    I think the operative word is 'frit'.
    Everyone has said all along that Trump would be completely bonkers to testify. Now that he's decided not to, the confected scorn seems silly. Who are we campaigning too with these posts - there are very few people here with a vote in the US Presidential elections, and I don't see those with one being persuaded by comments here.
    It's more really surprising he didn't, because he *is* completely bonkers.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    I see the AfD is even too extreme for Le Pen
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    Biden will support moves to sanction the International Criminal Court.

    https://x.com/ft/status/1792971076701491550

    And half the Democrats in Congress won't
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @Steven_Swinford
    Exclusive from
    @p_j_chappell


    Cabinet minister said in private memo that No 10 needs to stop trying to 'placate' Rishi Sunak and instead give airtime to more popular colleagues

    Johnny Mercer said No 10 is behaving as if Sunak is still as popular as he was when he entered office despite fact his poll ratings have plummeted

    He said that No 10's comms strategy is 'haphazard, un-themed and loose' and 'average performers' like Mark Harper are being sent out to defend govt in 'important slots'

    He said too many political advisers are 'overpromoted and under-skilled' & have 'poor political judgement'

    He said No 10 is not listening to him and other Tory MPs

    Mercer was photographed writing the memo by a passenger on a train from Exeter to London earlier this month
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Another brilliant day's work from Sunak:


    Peter Foster
    @pmdfoster
    ·
    1h
    The quotes on this tweet instructive. Either relief or cold fury that Sunak buckled.

    Q is why on earth Sunak was marched to the top of this particular hill. Hurts UK reputation and now alienates the Tory base. That’s a D-minus for political strategy.

    https://x.com/pmdfoster/status/1792989473652785333
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited May 21
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally I see Trump was persuaded not to commit suicide by giving evidence.

    Which is a terrible shame for popcorn merchants everywhere.

    You mean he wanted to testify but was stopped by the deep state (is what his fans will think)
    I think the operative word is 'frit'.
    Everyone has said all along that Trump would be completely bonkers to testify. Now that he's decided not to, the confected scorn seems silly. Who are we campaigning too with these posts - there are very few people here with a vote in the US Presidential elections, and I don't see those with one being persuaded by comments here.
    It's more really surprising he didn't, because he *is* completely bonkers.
    I expect he was wary of what he said in front of a jury in heavily Democratic Manhattan to try and maximise his chances of acquittal. If he can't be convicted by a jury in one of the most anti Trump areas of the USA on at least 1 count of criminal charges I doubt who would be convicted by a jury anywhere
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,059
    Juries have already found against him, including 2 Jean Carroll judgements.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited May 21

    Juries have already found against him, including 2 Jean Carroll judgements.

    In civil not criminal cases, so the certainty of culpability required is lower.

    The Jean Carroll case was also in New York too

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally I see Trump was persuaded not to commit suicide by giving evidence.

    Which is a terrible shame for popcorn merchants everywhere.

    You mean he wanted to testify but was stopped by the deep state (is what his fans will think)
    I think the operative word is 'frit'.
    Everyone has said all along that Trump would be completely bonkers to testify. Now that he's decided not to, the confected scorn seems silly. Who are we campaigning too with these posts - there are very few people here with a vote in the US Presidential elections, and I don't see those with one being persuaded by comments here.
    The scorn is for his relentless stream of bullshit.
    If you want to ignore it, fine, but don't tell others they have to.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433
    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally I see Trump was persuaded not to commit suicide by giving evidence.

    Which is a terrible shame for popcorn merchants everywhere.

    You mean he wanted to testify but was stopped by the deep state (is what his fans will think)
    I think the operative word is 'frit'.
    Everyone has said all along that Trump would be completely bonkers to testify. Now that he's decided not to, the confected scorn seems silly. Who are we campaigning too with these posts - there are very few people here with a vote in the US Presidential elections, and I don't see those with one being persuaded by comments here.
    You don't like people being rude about Trump?

    Who the hell can we be rude about if we can't be rude about that arsehat?
    No, I don't mind people being rude about Trump, we should all be free to air our opinions as adults, to other adults. I think my objection is feeling like I'm being campaigned to on behalf of the PB morale party.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,994
    This survey result I think pinpoints where polling might slip to in the event of a GE.

    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1792875101001486811?s=46

    32% think a Labour majority government would be bad. That’s the Tory vote share plus the anti Labour elements of Reform and a handful of SNP voters. It sets an absolute cap on Tory vote share in the event of swingback.

    17% think a Tory majority would be good. That’s the Conservative floor. Can’t fall below that unless there’s another major disaster.

    63% think a Labour majority would be good or indifferent. That’s surely the ceiling for LLG.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    HYUFD said:

    Juries have already found against him, including 2 Jean Carroll judgements.

    In civil not criminal cases, so the certainty of culpability required is lower.

    The Jean Carroll case was also in New York too

    I would be somewhat surprised if the penalty he gets in this case - even if found guilty - would be higher than $83 million.

    Yes, I know this theoretically could lead to jail but if Merchan hasn't jailed him for his multiple crimes against the court he won't do it merely for falsifying business records.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828
    rcs1000 said:

    My eldest daughter turns 18 on July 20th and will be gutted if the election is on July 11th!
    She is hoping to vote in the US election later in the year though.

    I missed 1992 by about a month :neutral:

    Which meant I missed voting for the Liberal Democrat candidate in Bedfordshire North, a certain Michael Smithson.
    You wanted to waste your vote on a third party candidate? Blood is truly thicker than water.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Well the rain has just started here. Apparently it's going to get pretty bad in some places.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Exclusive from
    @p_j_chappell


    Cabinet minister said in private memo that No 10 needs to stop trying to 'placate' Rishi Sunak and instead give airtime to more popular colleagues

    Johnny Mercer said No 10 is behaving as if Sunak is still as popular as he was when he entered office despite fact his poll ratings have plummeted

    He said that No 10's comms strategy is 'haphazard, un-themed and loose' and 'average performers' like Mark Harper are being sent out to defend govt in 'important slots'

    He said too many political advisers are 'overpromoted and under-skilled' & have 'poor political judgement'

    He said No 10 is not listening to him and other Tory MPs

    Mercer was photographed writing the memo by a passenger on a train from Exeter to London earlier this month

    Popcorn-tastic.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,824
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Juries have already found against him, including 2 Jean Carroll judgements.

    In civil not criminal cases, so the certainty of culpability required is lower.

    The Jean Carroll case was also in New York too

    I would be somewhat surprised if the penalty he gets in this case - even if found guilty - would be higher than $83 million.

    Yes, I know this theoretically could lead to jail but if Merchan hasn't jailed him for his multiple crimes against the court he won't do it merely for falsifying business records.
    There is still a further contempt of court to be dealt with. I really don’t see how Merchan can do other than impose a jail sentence for that. It will probably be brief, maybe 7 days, but it is surely coming.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    A chance for Britain to use its Brexit freedoms:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/21/janet-yellen-eu-us-chinese-exports-tariffs-electric-vehicles

    Janet Yellen, the US treasury secretary, has urged the EU to intervene urgently to dampen the growing export levels of Chinese cut-price green technology including solar panels and wind turbines, pushing European leaders to move to a full-scale trade war.

    To do what ?

    I don't disagree, but what do you think the best policy for us ?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,798
    Andy_JS said:

    Well the rain has just started here. Apparently it's going to get pretty bad in some places.

    No rain yet here, but the sunset has the look of the apocalypse about it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Exclusive from
    @p_j_chappell


    Cabinet minister said in private memo that No 10 needs to stop trying to 'placate' Rishi Sunak and instead give airtime to more popular colleagues

    Johnny Mercer said No 10 is behaving as if Sunak is still as popular as he was when he entered office despite fact his poll ratings have plummeted

    He said that No 10's comms strategy is 'haphazard, un-themed and loose' and 'average performers' like Mark Harper are being sent out to defend govt in 'important slots'

    He said too many political advisers are 'overpromoted and under-skilled' & have 'poor political judgement'

    He said No 10 is not listening to him and other Tory MPs

    Mercer was photographed writing the memo by a passenger on a train from Exeter to London earlier this month

    I haven't been a fan of Mercer since he recently insulted Peter Hitchens by saying he'd never heard of him.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    edited May 21
    Josh Rogin
    @joshrogin
    As the election nears, some Arab American donors and activists are considering not just sitting out the race, but working outright to elect Trump. And in a private meeting this week in Michigan, Trump’s surrogates are going to do their best to bring them into the fold.

    On Tuesday, a group of Arab American donors and activists from around the country plan to convene in Oakland Hills, Mich., for a private dinner initiated by Trump’s former ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell, several of the invitees told me…

    “What has the Biden administration done for Muslim Americans on any level? The answer is zero.”

    https://x.com/joshrogin/status/1792544850337726691

    ===

    Good luck to them under a Trump 2.0 administration. F*cking idiots.

    Have these Arab Americans forgotten the Trump embassy move?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828
    Has capitalism failed?

    I recently re-watched the whole of Absolutely Fabulous on Amazon. It holds up very very well. I'd heard good things about another Jennifer Saunders project Jam and Jerusalem and managed to stream series 1 off dailymotion and it was really good. Big cast of characters but well observed and funny. However it is proving almost impossible to find series 2 other than buying the DVD. The reviews are generally excellent and I've heard people say it gets better as it goes along. I'm happy to pay. But I can't find it anywhere.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Andy_JS said:

    Well the rain has just started here. Apparently it's going to get pretty bad in some places.

    Light drizzle so far here in the swamps of the midlands.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433

    Another brilliant day's work from Sunak:


    Peter Foster
    @pmdfoster
    ·
    1h
    The quotes on this tweet instructive. Either relief or cold fury that Sunak buckled.

    Q is why on earth Sunak was marched to the top of this particular hill. Hurts UK reputation and now alienates the Tory base. That’s a D-minus for political strategy.

    https://x.com/pmdfoster/status/1792989473652785333

    Rishi Sunak was meant to be 'the grown up in the room' after Truss crashed and burned. He was the cool-headed technocrat who knew who to deal with etc. Now it turns out he wasn't the grown up in the room, he was the office boy in the room, the grown-up was Cameron? I mean wtf. Is Cameron the actual grown-up or is it Osborne?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828

    Josh Rogin
    @joshrogin
    As the election nears, some Arab American donors and activists are considering not just sitting out the race, but working outright to elect Trump. And in a private meeting this week in Michigan, Trump’s surrogates are going to do their best to bring them into the fold.

    On Tuesday, a group of Arab American donors and activists from around the country plan to convene in Oakland Hills, Mich., for a private dinner initiated by Trump’s former ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell, several of the invitees told me…

    “What has the Biden administration done for Muslim Americans on any level? The answer is zero.”

    https://x.com/joshrogin/status/1792544850337726691

    ===

    Good luck to them under a Trump 2.0 administration. F*cking idiots.

    Have these Arab Americans forgotten the Trump embassy move?

    Perhaps they are aware of Biden's failed middle east policy towards Iran and it's attempt to dominate the Arabian peninsula.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828
    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Exclusive from
    @p_j_chappell


    Cabinet minister said in private memo that No 10 needs to stop trying to 'placate' Rishi Sunak and instead give airtime to more popular colleagues

    Johnny Mercer said No 10 is behaving as if Sunak is still as popular as he was when he entered office despite fact his poll ratings have plummeted

    He said that No 10's comms strategy is 'haphazard, un-themed and loose' and 'average performers' like Mark Harper are being sent out to defend govt in 'important slots'

    He said too many political advisers are 'overpromoted and under-skilled' & have 'poor political judgement'

    He said No 10 is not listening to him and other Tory MPs

    Mercer was photographed writing the memo by a passenger on a train from Exeter to London earlier this month

    I haven't been a fan of Mercer since he recently insulted Peter Hitchens by saying he'd never heard of him.
    Sounds like quite a good insult.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433
    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Exclusive from
    @p_j_chappell


    Cabinet minister said in private memo that No 10 needs to stop trying to 'placate' Rishi Sunak and instead give airtime to more popular colleagues

    Johnny Mercer said No 10 is behaving as if Sunak is still as popular as he was when he entered office despite fact his poll ratings have plummeted

    He said that No 10's comms strategy is 'haphazard, un-themed and loose' and 'average performers' like Mark Harper are being sent out to defend govt in 'important slots'

    He said too many political advisers are 'overpromoted and under-skilled' & have 'poor political judgement'

    He said No 10 is not listening to him and other Tory MPs

    Mercer was photographed writing the memo by a passenger on a train from Exeter to London earlier this month

    One cannot really disagree.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 480
    Sunak said it could end in a hung parliament... now labour's lead is expanding while ref and con drop. Tells you everything you need to know. There is NOTHING good to wait for. I saw that betting for a July ge went from 16 to 40%. Perhaps the penny has finally dropped for sunak: go now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,007
    edited May 21
    A good job these extremists are incompetent idiots. And who would have guessed they still lived with their mother.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/21/terror-suspect-explosives-cyanide-luton-shed-whittaker-lab/
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,896
    ToryJim said:

    Taz said:

    Jesus. Tory MP Has hands and feet amputated after contracting sepsis.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1792997193198055886?s=61

    That’s an awful thing to happen to anyone, I hope he is getting the mental health support he will undoubtedly need.
    Craig Mackinlay: Tory MP reveals feet and hands were amputated after contracting sepsis
    Craig Mackinlay will return to parliament on Wednesday just six months after having four amputations.

    https://news.sky.com/story/craig-mackinlay-tory-mp-reveals-feet-and-hands-were-amputated-after-contracting-sepsis-13141002
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Exclusive from
    @p_j_chappell


    Cabinet minister said in private memo that No 10 needs to stop trying to 'placate' Rishi Sunak and instead give airtime to more popular colleagues

    Johnny Mercer said No 10 is behaving as if Sunak is still as popular as he was when he entered office despite fact his poll ratings have plummeted

    He said that No 10's comms strategy is 'haphazard, un-themed and loose' and 'average performers' like Mark Harper are being sent out to defend govt in 'important slots'

    He said too many political advisers are 'overpromoted and under-skilled' & have 'poor political judgement'

    He said No 10 is not listening to him and other Tory MPs

    Mercer was photographed writing the memo by a passenger on a train from Exeter to London earlier this month

    I haven't been a fan of Mercer since he recently insulted Peter Hitchens by saying he'd never heard of him.
    Sounds like quite a good insult.
    But he had heard of his brother.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,446
    Taz said:

    Jesus. Tory MP Has hands and feet amputated after contracting sepsis.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1792997193198055886?s=61

    Terrible news.

    Poor guy.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,896

    A good job these extremists are incompetent idiots. And who would have guessed they still lived with their mother.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/21/terror-suspect-explosives-cyanide-luton-shed-whittaker-lab/

    He sounds like an idiot rather than a terrorist.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,896
    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Exclusive from
    @p_j_chappell


    Cabinet minister said in private memo that No 10 needs to stop trying to 'placate' Rishi Sunak and instead give airtime to more popular colleagues

    Johnny Mercer said No 10 is behaving as if Sunak is still as popular as he was when he entered office despite fact his poll ratings have plummeted

    He said that No 10's comms strategy is 'haphazard, un-themed and loose' and 'average performers' like Mark Harper are being sent out to defend govt in 'important slots'

    He said too many political advisers are 'overpromoted and under-skilled' & have 'poor political judgement'

    He said No 10 is not listening to him and other Tory MPs

    Mercer was photographed writing the memo by a passenger on a train from Exeter to London earlier this month

    It's not that split parties are unpopular, but that unpopular parties split. When things are going badly, every MP thinks their solution is better.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,945

    Has capitalism failed?

    I recently re-watched the whole of Absolutely Fabulous on Amazon. It holds up very very well. I'd heard good things about another Jennifer Saunders project Jam and Jerusalem and managed to stream series 1 off dailymotion and it was really good. Big cast of characters but well observed and funny. However it is proving almost impossible to find series 2 other than buying the DVD. The reviews are generally excellent and I've heard people say it gets better as it goes along. I'm happy to pay. But I can't find it anywhere.

    These lacunae exist for some reason, particularly with old BBC shows.

    That there is no DVD for season 2 or 3 of Monkey Dust is a crime against humanity - that show hasn't aged a day compared to the other comedies of its time, and in some ways feels even more relevant now.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Exclusive from
    @p_j_chappell


    Cabinet minister said in private memo that No 10 needs to stop trying to 'placate' Rishi Sunak and instead give airtime to more popular colleagues

    Johnny Mercer said No 10 is behaving as if Sunak is still as popular as he was when he entered office despite fact his poll ratings have plummeted

    He said that No 10's comms strategy is 'haphazard, un-themed and loose' and 'average performers' like Mark Harper are being sent out to defend govt in 'important slots'

    He said too many political advisers are 'overpromoted and under-skilled' & have 'poor political judgement'

    He said No 10 is not listening to him and other Tory MPs

    Mercer was photographed writing the memo by a passenger on a train from Exeter to London earlier this month

    It's not that split parties are unpopular, but that unpopular parties split. When things are going badly, every MP thinks their solution is better.
    It's worse than that. Unpopular parties panic and split, as you say. But then the public decide they don't like split parties, so the party becomes even more unpopular, and said party enters a doom loop.

    In the last days of Major, the party stepped back (a bit) from the edge after the 'back me or sack me' leadership election. At least until the campaign started, then it all went wrong again.

    It was bad, but I'm pretty sure it wasn't quite as bad as this.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,633
    Nigelb said:

    Most underrated industrial policy success story: Morocco's auto industry
    - More car exports to Europe than China
    - Zero to $14 billion in auto exports in 15 years
    - Invested heavily in infrastructure: rail, highways, ports
    - Brought in foreign firms from France, China, Japan, Korea (Renault is Morocco's largest private employer)
    - Foreign firms enticed with not just subsidies but speed: factories can get approved and built in months
    - Hugely successful SEZs and industrial parks
    - Took advantage of FTAs with EU and US and geographical proximity to Europe
    - Now turning into an EV manufacturing hub
    - Surge of new plants from Chinese battery makers

    https://x.com/kyleichan/status/1793014555330699500

    When did they join the single market?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    Prices increased by a quarter in the past three years. Even though household incomes have nearly kept up, it's the sticker shock people notice. Also people are saving more, which might be a good thing but has the effect of making them poorer in the meantime. Overall about 4% down in ability to spend.

    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/the-end-of-the-inflation-shock/

    Hard to believe everybody or even the majority have kept up with 25% pay rises over last 3 years.
    Real wages down by an average of 2.3% according to the article. The reason why it wasn't more was that the minimum wage DID keep pace with inflation. There were big differences between different industries with professionals and public sector seeing bigger falls in real wages while service sectors have done relatively better.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    The Scottish culture secretary has demanded an urgent meeting with Creative Scotland to discuss why an arts project involving real sex was given over £100,000 in funding.

    Angus Robertson said he is "deeply concerned" about documents obtained by BBC Scotland News which show the original funding application made clear the project would involve real sex.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqq04v75p9o

    Why are people so prudish? Why shouldn't real sex be a proper subject for art?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    rcs1000 said:

    The Scottish culture secretary has demanded an urgent meeting with Creative Scotland to discuss why an arts project involving real sex was given over £100,000 in funding.

    Angus Robertson said he is "deeply concerned" about documents obtained by BBC Scotland News which show the original funding application made clear the project would involve real sex.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqq04v75p9o

    Why are people so prudish? Why shouldn't real sex be a proper subject for art?
    ScotCons are jealous?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Catherine Rampell
    @crampell
    ·
    3h
    Trump will not rule out placing restrictions on access to contraceptives. “We’re looking at that…It’s another issue that’s very interesting”

    https://x.com/crampell/status/1792938599970746724

    He could start with himself...
    Sounds like a typical non-reply from Trump tbh - I don't think he'll touch it with a barge poll.
    That would be appear to be a misinterpretation.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/21/trump-contraception-abortion-00159118
    While he didn’t provide any details, he told KDKA political analyst Jon Delano that he plans to share a policy on contraception “very shortly.”

    “We’re looking at that, and I’m going to have a policy on that very shortly and I think it’s something that you’ll find interesting,” Trump said when asked if he supported any restrictions on a person’s right to contraception.

    KDKA declined to confirm to POLITICO when the interview was recorded, but the Biden campaign released video of the exchange on Tuesday.

    Trump added, “you will find it very smart. I think it’s a smart decision.”..



    Of course he was adamant he'd testify in court, too.
    Trump announcing that "there will be plan on [x]" is a big part of his schtick, and it's never actually followed by a plan.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally I see Trump was persuaded not to commit suicide by giving evidence.

    Which is a terrible shame for popcorn merchants everywhere.

    You mean he wanted to testify but was stopped by the deep state (is what his fans will think)
    I think the operative word is 'frit'.
    Everyone has said all along that Trump would be completely bonkers to testify. Now that he's decided not to, the confected scorn seems silly. Who are we campaigning too with these posts - there are very few people here with a vote in the US Presidential elections, and I don't see those with one being persuaded by comments here.
    The scorn is about the lying; you know the way he repeatedly said he would testify.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @matt_dathan
    Exclusive:

    Police are being told to make fewer arrests because of the lack of space in prisons:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    A chance for Britain to use its Brexit freedoms:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/21/janet-yellen-eu-us-chinese-exports-tariffs-electric-vehicles

    Janet Yellen, the US treasury secretary, has urged the EU to intervene urgently to dampen the growing export levels of Chinese cut-price green technology including solar panels and wind turbines, pushing European leaders to move to a full-scale trade war.

    Wait:

    Why would we want to not import cut price solar panels that reduce our dependence on imported oil and gas?

    If the Chinese want to sell us solar panels at less than cost, there is no way that is anything other than outstandingly good news for the UK.
  • The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 457

    The Irish government is completely losing control over the issue of asylum seekers/refugees/international protection applicants.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/social-affairs/2024/05/21/protests-prevent-international-protection-applicants-accessing-south-dublin-accommodation/

    Indeed. And over a relatively small number of people. Almost as if FG and FF don't really want to solve this issue.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,785
    rcs1000 said:

    A chance for Britain to use its Brexit freedoms:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/21/janet-yellen-eu-us-chinese-exports-tariffs-electric-vehicles

    Janet Yellen, the US treasury secretary, has urged the EU to intervene urgently to dampen the growing export levels of Chinese cut-price green technology including solar panels and wind turbines, pushing European leaders to move to a full-scale trade war.

    Wait:

    Why would we want to not import cut price solar panels that reduce our dependence on imported oil and gas?

    If the Chinese want to sell us solar panels at less than cost, there is no way that is anything other than outstandingly good news for the UK.
    But.. solar is bad. It's like onshore wind, somehow. Which is bad. Or good? I've lost track of the Tory line.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    In other news, I see Russian state TV has started airing Tucker Carlson's show.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,081
    rcs1000 said:

    The Scottish culture secretary has demanded an urgent meeting with Creative Scotland to discuss why an arts project involving real sex was given over £100,000 in funding.

    Angus Robertson said he is "deeply concerned" about documents obtained by BBC Scotland News which show the original funding application made clear the project would involve real sex.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqq04v75p9o

    Why are people so prudish? Why shouldn't real sex be a proper subject for art?
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unsimulated_sex

    Having read the list, it does seem rather depressing, tbh

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,081
    Scott_xP said:

    @matt_dathan
    Exclusive:

    Police are being told to make fewer arrests because of the lack of space in prisons:

    If a Conservative Party after 14 years in power cannot adequately run the prison service then something has gone badly wrong.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,249
    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Scottish culture secretary has demanded an urgent meeting with Creative Scotland to discuss why an arts project involving real sex was given over £100,000 in funding.

    Angus Robertson said he is "deeply concerned" about documents obtained by BBC Scotland News which show the original funding application made clear the project would involve real sex.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqq04v75p9o

    Why are people so prudish? Why shouldn't real sex be a proper subject for art?
    ScotCons are jealous?
    Sounds like one of the storylines from Grimbledon Down in which they made off-putting porno movies in aid of population control.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @faisalislam

    Quite the story in Times below that a minister wrote a memo suggesting Number 10 refused repeated efforts to allow veterans ID for voting because it would “open floodgates” to students using their ID to vote as well…
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Just listened to the podcast. The Fink didn’t sound hugely convinced about July, just said there had been some murmurings and a feeling that things will likely get worse, not better. I think it will be the autumn. Sunak might have grabbed the initiative by going in May but a summer election on the brink of the school holidays seems a bit silly.

    October is probably his best bet.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    Nigelb said:

    Most underrated industrial policy success story: Morocco's auto industry
    - More car exports to Europe than China
    - Zero to $14 billion in auto exports in 15 years
    - Invested heavily in infrastructure: rail, highways, ports
    - Brought in foreign firms from France, China, Japan, Korea (Renault is Morocco's largest private employer)
    - Foreign firms enticed with not just subsidies but speed: factories can get approved and built in months
    - Hugely successful SEZs and industrial parks
    - Took advantage of FTAs with EU and US and geographical proximity to Europe
    - Now turning into an EV manufacturing hub
    - Surge of new plants from Chinese battery makers

    https://x.com/kyleichan/status/1793014555330699500

    When did they join the single market?
    They didn't, but they're trying to sell Europe cheap labour, not high-value services.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Scott_xP said:

    @faisalislam

    Quite the story in Times below that a minister wrote a memo suggesting Number 10 refused repeated efforts to allow veterans ID for voting because it would “open floodgates” to students using their ID to vote as well…

    The gerrymandering, chiselling, cheating shitshow with voter ID is the epitome of a pathetic, weak, wankerish government frothing at the dying of the light.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377
    edited May 21
    Scott_xP said:

    @matt_dathan
    Exclusive:

    Police are being told to make fewer arrests because of the lack of space in prisons:

    See you all tomorrow.
    Just off to burgle a few houses.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    Just listened to the podcast. The Fink didn’t sound hugely convinced about July, just said there had been some murmurings and a feeling that things will likely get worse, not better. I think it will be the autumn. Sunak might have grabbed the initiative by going in May but a summer election on the brink of the school holidays seems a bit silly.

    October is probably his best bet.

    It's October.

    You heard it here first.

    Unless it isn't 😈
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    edited May 21
    viewcode said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @matt_dathan
    Exclusive:

    Police are being told to make fewer arrests because of the lack of space in prisons:

    If a Conservative Party after 14 years in power cannot adequately run the prison service then something has gone badly wrong.
    Not really.
    They can't adequately run anything else.
    So why make this exception?
    CYPS referral waiting times over two years now.
    Which means a Year 9 refusing school doesn't get seen, let alone devised a plan, before school is over.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    That’s one hell of a community note.
    https://x.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1793027827463492035
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,633
    rcs1000 said:

    A chance for Britain to use its Brexit freedoms:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/21/janet-yellen-eu-us-chinese-exports-tariffs-electric-vehicles

    Janet Yellen, the US treasury secretary, has urged the EU to intervene urgently to dampen the growing export levels of Chinese cut-price green technology including solar panels and wind turbines, pushing European leaders to move to a full-scale trade war.

    Wait:

    Why would we want to not import cut price solar panels that reduce our dependence on imported oil and gas?

    If the Chinese want to sell us solar panels at less than cost, there is no way that is anything other than outstandingly good news for the UK.
    And we can only take advantage of the opportunity thanks to Brexit. Let the US and EU have their trade war with China.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,785

    Has capitalism failed?

    I recently re-watched the whole of Absolutely Fabulous on Amazon. It holds up very very well. I'd heard good things about another Jennifer Saunders project Jam and Jerusalem and managed to stream series 1 off dailymotion and it was really good. Big cast of characters but well observed and funny. However it is proving almost impossible to find series 2 other than buying the DVD. The reviews are generally excellent and I've heard people say it gets better as it goes along. I'm happy to pay. But I can't find it anywhere.

    If you can't find it legitimately I can get S2 and 3 if you want them. Pop me a DM.

    (I hate the way this works - there used to be a wonderful UK focussed radio archive of old BBC radio drama's based on people's old tape recordings of original broadcasts. BBC lawyers threatened the owner and it was then shut down. BBC still refuses to make the recordings available despite offers of £££. So piracy thrives...)
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828
    rcs1000 said:

    In other news, I see Russian state TV has started airing Tucker Carlson's show.

    I've just listened to Jonathan Dimbleby on Times Radio. He's written a book about how Stalin won the war. Amazingly he quotes the figure of 27 million Russian deaths. I've looked online and can only find this number as relating to the Soviet Union as a whole. I've seen a figure of 1.5m Ukrainian military deaths fighting the Nazis. More than Britain suffered in both world wars combined. Has anyone EVER mentioned this? I doubt Dimbleby ever has.

    He comes across as yet another romantic Russian sentimentalist. He wants us to understand why ordinary Russians 'feel' the way they do towards the west. Well they've been indoctrinated by generations of leaders. The fact they go on about their own personal sacrifice yet seem blissfully unaware of that of their neighbours, sometimes as a result of their own brutality coming from Moskva.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    ohnotnow said:

    Has capitalism failed?

    I recently re-watched the whole of Absolutely Fabulous on Amazon. It holds up very very well. I'd heard good things about another Jennifer Saunders project Jam and Jerusalem and managed to stream series 1 off dailymotion and it was really good. Big cast of characters but well observed and funny. However it is proving almost impossible to find series 2 other than buying the DVD. The reviews are generally excellent and I've heard people say it gets better as it goes along. I'm happy to pay. But I can't find it anywhere.

    If you can't find it legitimately I can get S2 and 3 if you want them. Pop me a DM.

    (I hate the way this works - there used to be a wonderful UK focussed radio archive of old BBC radio drama's based on people's old tape recordings of original broadcasts. BBC lawyers threatened the owner and it was then shut down. BBC still refuses to make the recordings available despite offers of £££. So piracy thrives...)
    I suppose it is the difference between private circulation and broad re-publishing without permission.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,583

    Just listened to the podcast. The Fink didn’t sound hugely convinced about July, just said there had been some murmurings and a feeling that things will likely get worse, not better. I think it will be the autumn. Sunak might have grabbed the initiative by going in May but a summer election on the brink of the school holidays seems a bit silly.

    October is probably his best bet.

    It's October.

    You heard it here first.

    Unless it isn't 😈
    A November election announced on Wednesday 2nd October - the last day of the Tory conference for 14th November.

    Incidentally there is an annular solar eclipse on 2nd October. An omen?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    edited May 21
    rcs1000 said:

    A chance for Britain to use its Brexit freedoms:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/21/janet-yellen-eu-us-chinese-exports-tariffs-electric-vehicles

    Janet Yellen, the US treasury secretary, has urged the EU to intervene urgently to dampen the growing export levels of Chinese cut-price green technology including solar panels and wind turbines, pushing European leaders to move to a full-scale trade war.

    Wait:

    Why would we want to not import cut price solar panels that reduce our dependence on imported oil and gas?

    If the Chinese want to sell us solar panels at less than cost, there is no way that is anything other than outstandingly good news for the UK.
    Huge question.

    One Starmer will face very soon.

    Is it Net Zero or protect "out dated" jobs and technologies?

    Swing voters in, say, the Midlands know what they want.

    And yet, maybe - grab these cheap net zero products and run with it. Certainly AEP at Telegraph thinks so iirc. We are in a massive inflection point and we have lost the first round of solar/EV. Can we catch up with some kind of next gen techology? New types of battery? Technology, markets, capitalism, Schumpeterian growth can be brutal.

    But - maybe issues with how labour is used to produce such cheap products?

    Who would be a politician in these changing times?





  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828
    ohnotnow said:

    Has capitalism failed?

    I recently re-watched the whole of Absolutely Fabulous on Amazon. It holds up very very well. I'd heard good things about another Jennifer Saunders project Jam and Jerusalem and managed to stream series 1 off dailymotion and it was really good. Big cast of characters but well observed and funny. However it is proving almost impossible to find series 2 other than buying the DVD. The reviews are generally excellent and I've heard people say it gets better as it goes along. I'm happy to pay. But I can't find it anywhere.

    If you can't find it legitimately I can get S2 and 3 if you want them. Pop me a DM.

    (I hate the way this works - there used to be a wonderful UK focussed radio archive of old BBC radio drama's based on people's old tape recordings of original broadcasts. BBC lawyers threatened the owner and it was then shut down. BBC still refuses to make the recordings available despite offers of £££. So piracy thrives...)
    Don't they want to make money?
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660

    rcs1000 said:

    A chance for Britain to use its Brexit freedoms:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/21/janet-yellen-eu-us-chinese-exports-tariffs-electric-vehicles

    Janet Yellen, the US treasury secretary, has urged the EU to intervene urgently to dampen the growing export levels of Chinese cut-price green technology including solar panels and wind turbines, pushing European leaders to move to a full-scale trade war.

    Wait:

    Why would we want to not import cut price solar panels that reduce our dependence on imported oil and gas?

    If the Chinese want to sell us solar panels at less than cost, there is no way that is anything other than outstandingly good news for the UK.
    Huge question.

    One Starmer will face very soon.

    Is it Net Zero or protect "out dated" jobs and technologies?

    Swing voters in, say, the Midlands know what they want.

    And yet, maybe - grab these cheap net zero products and run with it. Certainly AEP at Telegraph thinks so iirc. We are in a massive inflection point and we have lost the first round of solar/EV. Can we catch up with some kind of next gen techology? New types of battery? Technology, markets, capitalism, Schumpeterian growth can be brutal.

    But - maybe issues with how labour is used to produce such cheap products?

    Who would be a politician in these changing times?





    I don't think you can catch up without the industrial foundations. If we saturate our market with cheap imports this has to be done on the understanding that we're never going to be competing with the Chinese on mass market green technologies.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Barnesian said:

    Just listened to the podcast. The Fink didn’t sound hugely convinced about July, just said there had been some murmurings and a feeling that things will likely get worse, not better. I think it will be the autumn. Sunak might have grabbed the initiative by going in May but a summer election on the brink of the school holidays seems a bit silly.

    October is probably his best bet.

    It's October.

    You heard it here first.

    Unless it isn't 😈
    A November election announced on Wednesday 2nd October - the last day of the Tory conference for 14th November.

    Incidentally there is an annular solar eclipse on 2nd October. An omen?
    No one will want the euro footy triumph ruined by a load of campaigning/GE bollocks in late June/early July.

    Not going to happen.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,798
    rcs1000 said:

    The Scottish culture secretary has demanded an urgent meeting with Creative Scotland to discuss why an arts project involving real sex was given over £100,000 in funding.

    Angus Robertson said he is "deeply concerned" about documents obtained by BBC Scotland News which show the original funding application made clear the project would involve real sex.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqq04v75p9o

    Why are people so prudish? Why shouldn't real sex be a proper subject for art?
    I don't think the objection is to it being a subject for art (at least, that's not my objection). The objection is that it doesn't seem a terribly good use of public money.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828
    rcs1000 said:

    A chance for Britain to use its Brexit freedoms:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/21/janet-yellen-eu-us-chinese-exports-tariffs-electric-vehicles

    Janet Yellen, the US treasury secretary, has urged the EU to intervene urgently to dampen the growing export levels of Chinese cut-price green technology including solar panels and wind turbines, pushing European leaders to move to a full-scale trade war.

    Wait:

    Why would we want to not import cut price solar panels that reduce our dependence on imported oil and gas?

    If the Chinese want to sell us solar panels at less than cost, there is no way that is anything other than outstandingly good news for the UK.
    Well Chinese solar panels seems safer than Chinese nuclear power. Becoming reliant on Chinese technology when they are so politically confrontational would be grand folly.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Having backed July at 20/1 some time back, I am laying a little.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,633

    rcs1000 said:

    A chance for Britain to use its Brexit freedoms:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/21/janet-yellen-eu-us-chinese-exports-tariffs-electric-vehicles

    Janet Yellen, the US treasury secretary, has urged the EU to intervene urgently to dampen the growing export levels of Chinese cut-price green technology including solar panels and wind turbines, pushing European leaders to move to a full-scale trade war.

    Wait:

    Why would we want to not import cut price solar panels that reduce our dependence on imported oil and gas?

    If the Chinese want to sell us solar panels at less than cost, there is no way that is anything other than outstandingly good news for the UK.
    Huge question.

    One Starmer will face very soon.

    Is it Net Zero or protect "out dated" jobs and technologies?

    Swing voters in, say, the Midlands know what they want.

    And yet, maybe - grab these cheap net zero products and run with it. Certainly AEP at Telegraph thinks so iirc. We are in a massive inflection point and we have lost the first round of solar/EV. Can we catch up with some kind of next gen techology? New types of battery? Technology, markets, capitalism, Schumpeterian growth can be brutal.

    But - maybe issues with how labour is used to produce such cheap products?

    Who would be a politician in these changing times?
    I don't think you can catch up without the industrial foundations. If we saturate our market with cheap imports this has to be done on the understanding that we're never going to be competing with the Chinese on mass market green technologies.
    It makes more sense for us to flood our market with cheap, green technologies from China than it did to flood our market with overpriced, polluting diesels from Germany.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Scott_xP said:

    @matt_dathan
    Exclusive:

    Police are being told to make fewer arrests because of the lack of space in prisons:

    Rayner evades justice once more. Time for a fresh inquiry.
    Did anyone else notice that Sir Keir was cooking tandoori salmon on the telly this weekend? Rubbing the public’s nose in it.

    CURRYGATE.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    edited May 21

    rcs1000 said:

    In other news, I see Russian state TV has started airing Tucker Carlson's show.

    I've just listened to Jonathan Dimbleby on Times Radio. He's written a book about how Stalin won the war. Amazingly he quotes the figure of 27 million Russian deaths. I've looked online and can only find this number as relating to the Soviet Union as a whole. I've seen a figure of 1.5m Ukrainian military deaths fighting the Nazis. More than Britain suffered in both world wars combined. Has anyone EVER mentioned this? I doubt Dimbleby ever has.

    He comes across as yet another romantic Russian sentimentalist. He wants us to understand why ordinary Russians 'feel' the way they do towards the west. Well they've been indoctrinated by generations of leaders. The fact they go on about their own personal sacrifice yet seem blissfully unaware of that of their neighbours, sometimes as a result of their own brutality coming from Moskva.
    It is entirely possible to hold both awed admiration for the Soviet Union's heroism, suffering and resilience in WW2 and revulsion for their crimes and those of the more recent Russia.
    It's not that difficult.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In other news, I see Russian state TV has started airing Tucker Carlson's show.

    I've just listened to Jonathan Dimbleby on Times Radio. He's written a book about how Stalin won the war. Amazingly he quotes the figure of 27 million Russian deaths. I've looked online and can only find this number as relating to the Soviet Union as a whole. I've seen a figure of 1.5m Ukrainian military deaths fighting the Nazis. More than Britain suffered in both world wars combined. Has anyone EVER mentioned this? I doubt Dimbleby ever has.

    He comes across as yet another romantic Russian sentimentalist. He wants us to understand why ordinary Russians 'feel' the way they do towards the west. Well they've been indoctrinated by generations of leaders. The fact they go on about their own personal sacrifice yet seem blissfully unaware of that of their neighbours, sometimes as a result of their own brutality coming from Moskva.
    It is entirely possible to hold both awed admiration for the Soviet Union's heroism, suffering and resilience in WW2 and revulsion for their crimes and those of the more recent Russia.
    It's not that difficult.
    You are completely missing the point. He was treating Russia/Soviet Union as one and the same thing. There is no evidence that 27 million Russians died in WW2.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    rcs1000 said:

    A chance for Britain to use its Brexit freedoms:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/21/janet-yellen-eu-us-chinese-exports-tariffs-electric-vehicles

    Janet Yellen, the US treasury secretary, has urged the EU to intervene urgently to dampen the growing export levels of Chinese cut-price green technology including solar panels and wind turbines, pushing European leaders to move to a full-scale trade war.

    Wait:

    Why would we want to not import cut price solar panels that reduce our dependence on imported oil and gas?

    If the Chinese want to sell us solar panels at less than cost, there is no way that is anything other than outstandingly good news for the UK.
    Huge question.

    One Starmer will face very soon.

    Is it Net Zero or protect "out dated" jobs and technologies?

    Swing voters in, say, the Midlands know what they want.

    And yet, maybe - grab these cheap net zero products and run with it. Certainly AEP at Telegraph thinks so iirc. We are in a massive inflection point and we have lost the first round of solar/EV. Can we catch up with some kind of next gen techology? New types of battery? Technology, markets, capitalism, Schumpeterian growth can be brutal.

    But - maybe issues with how labour is used to produce such cheap products?

    Who would be a politician in these changing times?





    I don't think you can catch up without the industrial foundations. If we saturate our market with cheap imports this has to be done on the understanding that we're never going to be competing with the Chinese on mass market green technologies.
    I dunno, the technology on say batteries is so fluid (ha, ha) that anything could happen.

    But, yeh, we would be better, as a country, playing to our strengths - one being software and hence AI rather than bolting bits of battery together.

    Our other key strengths - creative industries and higher education - this lot seemed determine to batter.


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    rcs1000 said:

    A chance for Britain to use its Brexit freedoms:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/21/janet-yellen-eu-us-chinese-exports-tariffs-electric-vehicles

    Janet Yellen, the US treasury secretary, has urged the EU to intervene urgently to dampen the growing export levels of Chinese cut-price green technology including solar panels and wind turbines, pushing European leaders to move to a full-scale trade war.

    Wait:

    Why would we want to not import cut price solar panels that reduce our dependence on imported oil and gas?

    If the Chinese want to sell us solar panels at less than cost, there is no way that is anything other than outstandingly good news for the UK.
    Huge question.

    One Starmer will face very soon.

    Is it Net Zero or protect "out dated" jobs and technologies?

    Swing voters in, say, the Midlands know what they want.

    And yet, maybe - grab these cheap net zero products and run with it. Certainly AEP at Telegraph thinks so iirc. We are in a massive inflection point and we have lost the first round of solar/EV. Can we catch up with some kind of next gen techology? New types of battery? Technology, markets, capitalism, Schumpeterian growth can be brutal.

    But - maybe issues with how labour is used to produce such cheap products?

    Who would be a politician in these changing times?

    I don't think you can catch up without the industrial foundations. If we saturate our market with cheap imports this has to be done on the understanding that we're never going to be competing with the Chinese on mass market green technologies.
    You certainly can in car production - just get the Chinese to build plants here.
    That worked with Nissan.

    It's unlikely we'll ever be able to do so with solar panel manufacturing, though.

    The Chinese car industry isn't so much about cheap labour anymore as much as superior technology.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 508
    dixiedean said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @matt_dathan
    Exclusive:

    Police are being told to make fewer arrests because of the lack of space in prisons:

    If a Conservative Party after 14 years in power cannot adequately run the prison service then something has gone badly wrong.
    Not really.
    They can't adequately run anything else.
    So why make this exception?
    CYPS referral waiting times over two years now.
    Which means a Year 9 refusing school doesn't get seen, let alone devised a plan, before school is over.
    Prison issue is partly because they cut the court sitting days to "save money", increasing the time and therefore the numbers on remand. This also results in more prosecutions failing because they've taken so long to get to court that CPS have lost evidence, contact details for witnesses etc.
    They're also not adequately funding courses in prison which means prisoners not being paroled because they haven't done the required reoffending courses.

    in 14 years the only aspect they've shown competence at is suspending procurement processes and awarding contracts to unqualified companies run by their cronies.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,896

    ToryJim said:

    Taz said:

    Jesus. Tory MP Has hands and feet amputated after contracting sepsis.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1792997193198055886?s=61

    That’s an awful thing to happen to anyone, I hope he is getting the mental health support he will undoubtedly need.
    Craig Mackinlay: Tory MP reveals feet and hands were amputated after contracting sepsis
    Craig Mackinlay will return to parliament on Wednesday just six months after having four amputations.

    https://news.sky.com/story/craig-mackinlay-tory-mp-reveals-feet-and-hands-were-amputated-after-contracting-sepsis-13141002
    Craig Mackinlay MP's video showing his necrotic limbs before amputation, and rehabilitation.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6sWzoewefk
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,994
    The government has managed a couple of weeks without a major scandal or really doing something to annoy the public. They’ve had a couple of defections but one didn’t really get clocked by the public and the other was a mixed blessing for Starmer at best. The locals results were bad but they managed expectations well.

    So it’s been, on balance, a decent news month for the Tories. They must be overdue a PR disaster.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,994

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In other news, I see Russian state TV has started airing Tucker Carlson's show.

    I've just listened to Jonathan Dimbleby on Times Radio. He's written a book about how Stalin won the war. Amazingly he quotes the figure of 27 million Russian deaths. I've looked online and can only find this number as relating to the Soviet Union as a whole. I've seen a figure of 1.5m Ukrainian military deaths fighting the Nazis. More than Britain suffered in both world wars combined. Has anyone EVER mentioned this? I doubt Dimbleby ever has.

    He comes across as yet another romantic Russian sentimentalist. He wants us to understand why ordinary Russians 'feel' the way they do towards the west. Well they've been indoctrinated by generations of leaders. The fact they go on about their own personal sacrifice yet seem blissfully unaware of that of their neighbours, sometimes as a result of their own brutality coming from Moskva.
    It is entirely possible to hold both awed admiration for the Soviet Union's heroism, suffering and resilience in WW2 and revulsion for their crimes and those of the more recent Russia.
    It's not that difficult.
    You are completely missing the point. He was treating Russia/Soviet Union as one and the same thing. There is no evidence that 27 million Russians died in WW2.
    To be fair it’s a mistake many people made until recent actions in Ukraine laid bare the lie.
This discussion has been closed.