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Houston, we have a problem – politicalbetting.com
Houston, we have a problem – politicalbetting.com
Nearly three-quarters of Texans believe their state has lost focus on pressing problems in favor of “an extreme conservative agenda", according to a new poll. https://t.co/U8v0Wq8nJt
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First like Starmer and Biden.
Oh and as I mentioned yesterday, hat tip BBC, Thursday December 12th sounds like a plausible election date to me. It’s the 5th anniversary of the last one. Kinda works.
Unlike dear old decrepiter J though I’m not telling y’all that it’s going to be this or that date. I doubt anyone has a clue yet, not even the current PM.
Even if party loyalties will see Republicans re-elected this time around, the interests of big business, big oil, and the GOP are no longer very well aligned. And neither are the loonier aspects of MAGA ideology and public opinion.
And nationally, it will likely make the difference, as TSE suggests.
At tonight’s House Oversight hearing, Marjorie Taylor Greene made a derogatory comment about Jasmine Crockett and “false eyelashes.” Then the committee erupted. AOC trashed MTG, demanded an apology (MTG refused); then demands for clarifications on whether personal attacks are now allowed; a clash on motions and motions to table them. Comer forced a vote to table AOC’s motion, which succeeded.
Then Rep. Crockett asked Comer: “I’m just curious, just to better understand your ruling: If someone on this committee then starts talking about somebody’s bleach blonde bad built butch body, that would not be engaging in personalities, correct?”
A befuddled Comer replied: “What now?”..
https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1791289263411101730
Laudable command of alliteration from Crockett.
This is what brought us Cameron's gerrymandering, Boris's prorogation and expulsion of his opponents, and Starmer's lying to get elected, and preferring Natalie Elphicke to Dianne Abbott.
This is the end of the good chap theory of government.
It’s also profoundly ungentlemanly but I guess it would take the re-education of a lifetime to explain to you that nuance.
Have a nice day everyone else
xx
Currently the pollster with the largest Lab lead by a margin Am interested to see if it is still near last weeks 30 point lead (nearly 10% above the non YG average) or has come back to mid 20s
It features the King, the prime minister, inventors and industrialists, as well as some exciting new names, but what does the record fall in the number of billionaires mean for Britain?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunday-times-rich-list-2024-revealed-plt3t2xrt (£££)
What indeed? What does the record fall in the number of billionaires mean for Britain? That Gordon Brown sold the gold too cheaply? The prospect of VAT on school fees is scaring them away? I'm pretty sure it has nothing to do with 14 years of Tories in Number 10.
I'm probably going to be in the market for a new (or <2 years old) car this year. I have always bought cars outright, and we have the money to do so without financing. But should I consider leasing?
TIA.
Boris haters will be reminded of Boris and how his party deserve a kicking.
Boris lovers will be reminded of Boris and how the ungrateful pygmies who dumped him deserve a kicking.
On the other hand, intellectually tidy shit politics is very much Rishi's MO.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp3g8kl8dd5o
Texas is the Democrats' rainbow over the horizon. It's true it is trending their way but always remains tantalisingly out of reach. This may of course be partly due to the skilful gerrymandering of the local GOP which has had control of the electoral process since Davy Crocket was a boy but that isn't going to change any time so. So this is surely a QTWTAIN.
On a related matter, I note the The Donald's price on the Betfair Presidential market has been shortening recently. I no longer follow the form closely enough to be sure why but assume it is because of all the free publicity from his trial? I still remain wedded to the view that there are enough US voters not afflicted with Trump Derangement Syndrome to see Old Joe home, but am concerned this may be wishful thinking.
What's the consensus here? I have the impression that most share my view that in the end the Baddies will lose, but I don't see any clear evidence of it happening. (The article referred to in the thread header is interesting, but hardly conclusive.)
As for the US, I think the GOP are in real trouble in both the House and Senate and in many State contests, but Trump still has a chance, largely because Biden is also personally quite unpopular- his VP even more so- and he gets little credit for any economic recovery. It is certainly not over yet in the Presidential race, however much one may loathe Trump.
FWIW, I whittled away at my Trump short over the last few months (partly by taking profits on shorting Michelle O and RFK Jnr). At he's now dropped just below evens, I'm tempted to reload.
"The findings by progressive advocacy group Unlocking America’s Future (UAF)"
Pretty sure that there have been equivalent conservative organisations conducting polls that show a vast majority in favour of restrictive abortion laws and such like, even when those views aren't being reflected in other polls and in election results.
The problem for me right now is the state polling, which is very good for Trump.
But don't always fall for the headline figure, likely voters means Biden wins.
I just want to say a huge thank you to everyone who posted congratulations to my wife and I on our diamond wedding anniversary yesterday as I was absent from PB for the day
Our eldest son and daughter in law are mid Atlantic on their flight from Vancouver to Heathrow to join all our family for a weekend of celebrations
I think maybe @OldKingCole and I are the only ones to achieve this milestone and contribute to this forum but hope many will follow in time, as all politicians seem to want to cuddle up to us oldies
Once again thank you
In the real world the last poll in Texas was on 1st May and had Trump ahead by 8 percentage points, 48:40, Texas has 2 Republican senators, in the last State elections 57.3% voted Republican who have a comfortable majority in the House of Representatives (86:64)... I could go on but you get the point. This is a solidly Republican state.
The position nationally remains that Trump has a small lead. He can afford to lose by 3-4% and still win the Electoral College. Increasingly, I am seeing articles that say this is his to lose. He might, of course, if he was convicted for example but the evidence to date would suggest that this would make little difference to his support. In recent days all of the Republican leadership have been turning up at his trial to kowtow and "show support." Republicans seem to have largely won the argument that this is lawfare already. I am increasingly pessimistic.
1. It gives him the longest possible time in the job - not to be sniffed at
2. It allows more time for a black swan to save him
3. It gives the maximum time for the economy to turn and for the Rwanda boats policy to take an effect. And there is TENTATIVE evidence that both are happening
If by January boats are halved and thousands of migrants are fleeing to Ireland, that really does put Starmer in a tricky spot. Because Sir Kir Royale cannot walk back from his commitment to cancel Rwanda
Could it save the election for the Tories? Surely not. Could it save a fair few seats? Yes, plausibly
25% of pensioners are millionaires.
NO ONLY JOKING
A diamond wedding anniversary is an amazing achievement. I was married for three years (three very happy years, mind)
Well done and enjoy the festives!
That said I sneered the most at Johnny Come Lately colleges, honestly if you weren't founded in the 14th century or earlier you had no business using the university's good name.
You are allowed to use the c-word about the following individuals:
- Nat Rothschild
- Zak Goldsmith
And ... errr ... that's about it...
I think all the childish ultras talk makes a category error - it assumes there’s a direct relationship between optimism or pessimism on the war, and people’s views on the rights and wrongs.
No, the distinction is about those who see this as a quarrel in a faraway country between people of whom we know nothing, and therefore frankly don’t give a shit, and those who perceive us already to be in WW3.
I’m afraid I think we are much closer to the latter than the former. That’s why it’s frankly shocking that the west is being outproduced in weaponry by an economy a fraction of the size and riddled with cronyism and corruption. Doubly shocking that the US faffs around with domestic squabbles while its enemies start to fill the vacuum.
China has now established an unchallenged foothold in the sea around Taiwan. It has, in the words of one commentator, “started to invade”. Because it sees the abject weakness of will of its adversaries. The more the West steps back, the more they will escalate.
I’m planning to dust down my location spreadsheet for when the mushrooms start sprouting, I think.
The other thing to bear in mind with that is that pensioners will be disproportionately wealthy, because all the poor pensioners will be dead, given the wide disparities in life expectancy.
Grandson does make use of the free pass mind you.
It would cost significantly more to means test those benefits than it costs. Pensioners with money do not use buses, you have to be really really old to get TV licence and fuel allowance is not that much and again would cost more to means test.
Given you are on the cusp I am surprised you ahve fallen into the bash and starve a pensioner brigade because I don't get it brigade.
The article on Chatham goes on swimmingly.
T. B. Macaulay in G. O. Trevelyan, Life & Letters of Macaulay (1876) vol. II. x. 15
*in case it had some occult meaning of a specialised perversion, etc.
Compared to my somewhat ancient experience and indeed that of his siblings which is more recent he works incredibly hard, probably about 70 hours a week. It certainly wouldn't suit or benefit those who want a degree to tick a box. To be honest I am slightly jealous of his opportunities compared with the relatively boring and certainly uninspiring education I got. But he worked hard to get it and has thrown himself into it with enthusiasm.
This is the attitude that has basically bankrupted the country. The bus services that young people and poorer people use to get to the workplace have been cut by roughly half since 2010.
That means that you have to live within walking or cycling distance of work, forcing millions of young people into only a few square miles in the city centre (or London), supercharging the housing crisis. Alternatively, they spend years saving up enough money for driving lessons, car insurance and the car itself.
Meanwhile rich pensioners, who have much higher rates of car ownership, get a free bus pass...
The political argument around defence is so depressing. The Tories - we'll increase defence spending, a little, eventually. Labour - we'd like to increase defence spending, but only once there's money left over from fixing the NHS, lol. The crisis is now guys. Started two years ago.
Two years! Ukraine should be drowning in equipment and ammunition from the West with more than two years to get production going.
I'm legitimately more worried about the consequences of this failure than I am about the consequences of the failure to cut global carbon dioxide emissions. And I've been a doomster about that for decades.
I'm against all forms of free public transport on the basis that the money would be better spent on more routes and more frequent services.
Ditto free TV licences (for which you merely need to be over 75, which is roughly this decade's over-50).
It's a foreign country. They do things differently there.
1) Are we talking household or individual wealth
2) What value is placed on income bearing assets which die with the individual. So if I am a retired worker with a guaranteed work pension of say £20,000 per annum, is my 'wealth' from that zero, or is it the actual or national underlying value of the asset which bears £20,000 per annum - which will be hundreds of thousands of pounds.
It also needs to be kept in mind that a house is worth a house for most practical purposes, whether you live in Accrington or the smarter bits of the South East/London.
It is much much wilder than I expected. Sometimes gloomy, sometimes too hot, the wind never stops and the seas are always turbulent
It’s oddly like the west coast of Ireland - but drier and bleaker and poorer. Its even got dolmens and standing stones
[insert non fuzzy photo here]
The restless Adriatic is magnificently angry and moody, like a beautiful wronged woman after half a bottle of Lidl brandy
I tend in most cases towards the Ron Swanson position, but in the case of public transport - certainly for public transport with space, like buses after 9.30am - I can see the argument for extending the bus pass beyond pensioners.
I do use an old fogey's rail card to get slightly cheaper trains to my work on occasion but I find it morally wrong that wealthy people are receiving these benefits when we have people living homeless, children living in damp and squalid conditions and sick and disabled being hassled. Our priorities are wrong.
Which particular routes in your stamping ground Edinburgh do you feel have been unhelpfully cut?
I suspect the largest 'free' transport in the UK is the 'free' provision of a road network, extensive though round here full of pot holes, for cars.
Where I grew up is a different story, with frequency roughly halved between the local towns (one of which has a college) and villages. I used to sit around doing nothing for an hour and half after work, and couldn't do any shift that started earlier than about 8.30am.
That is why I ask people who call for appeasement *why* they think Russia would settle for it in the medium or ling-term. I don't think I've received a convincing answer.
Instead, we would get a combination of military and political undermining of Ukraine and neighbouring countries - which is exactly what Russia has already been doing. And where countries cannot be cowed politically, expect internal 'incidents' within those countries - like Salisbury or the Czech ammo explosion.
The housing asylum seekers business is booming.
British asylum housing tycoon breaks into Sunday Times rich list
Graham King, whose firm is paid £3.5m a day to accommodate arrivals in the UK, listed among country’s 350 richest people
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/17/british-asylum-housing-tycoon-breaks-into-sunday-times-rich-list
-1 (out of reach coz of the roylz): St. Andrews
0 - Durham
1 - Exeter, "Royal Agricultural University" (previously RAC)
2 - Newcastle, Leeds, Edinburgh, Bristol, UEA (for arts esp History of Art), Reading (for ag)
3 - the rest
And no I don't mean academically.
I might be showing my Scotland/rural upbringing - if that is not how they work elsewhere, then I would make an exception!
If Biden had a well liked VP then he would have come under intense pressure to step down this year.
Is Sleepy Joe more cunning than we realise ?
Don't get all snitty I said it wasn't academically. "blah blah blah ranked unis in the world blah blah".
..When MFA Péter Szijjártó received the Order of Friendship from Sergey Lavrov - awarded by Putin himself - he already knew well that his ministry has been completely hacked by Russia.
He didn’t confront the Russians but praised Moscow and their great cooperation with Hungary...
https://x.com/panyiszabolcs/status/1509072928922607616
https://countylocalnews.com/2024/04/03/governor-greg-abbott-questioned-about-surge-in-voter-registrations-in-texas/
The suggestion - among a load of partisan nonsense from both Rs and Ds - is that there’s groups of activists making sure everyone is registered to vote, possibly by aggregating data from other sources, with the intention of legal ballot-harvesting operations at election time.
Texas has always been the state that will seemingly go blue one day, but never does, and there’s been quite a lot of immigration there from other states since the last Presidential election. If Texas goes for Biden, then it’s pretty much impossible for Trump to win, the state being bigger than all of the other swing states combined.
Last time around, Biden’s narrow wins in a lot of the swing states were seen as being down to effective canvassing and ballot-harvesting operations in cities. Activists collecting up postal votes is legal in most states, and in 2020 universal postal voting was introduced due to the pandemic, and a lot of those rules remain in place this time.
There’s a well-known Republican activist called Scott Presler, who’s attempting the same tactics the Dems used last time out of driving voter registrations well ahead of the election itself. https://x.com/ScottPresler/