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I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
Australia also competes.
I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
Australia at least is an offshoot of European civilization, speaking a European language and with Western values.
So, just to make sure I understand, a democracy which was populated in the last 60-70 years largely by people whose ancestors had spent hundreds of years living in Europe isnt “an offshoot of European civilisation”
Can you be clearer about what you mean?
It's only a democracy if you ignore the millions of people they rule over in perpetuity don't count.
Latvia Austria Netherlands Norway Israel Greece Estonia Switzerland Georgia Armenia
I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
Australia also competes.
I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
Australia at least is an offshoot of European civilization, speaking a European language and with Western values.
So, just to make sure I understand, a democracy which was populated in the last 60-70 years largely by people whose ancestors had spent hundreds of years living in Europe isnt “an offshoot of European civilisation”
Can you be clearer about what you mean?
I think he means that Jews can't be proper Europeans.
That’s what I suspect. But I prefer people to incriminate themselves…
Latvia Austria Netherlands Norway Israel Greece Estonia Switzerland Georgia Armenia
I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
Australia also competes.
I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
Australia at least is an offshoot of European civilization, speaking a European language and with Western values.
So, just to make sure I understand, a democracy which was populated in the last 60-70 years largely by people whose ancestors had spent hundreds of years living in Europe isnt “an offshoot of European civilisation”
Can you be clearer about what you mean?
It's only a democracy if you ignore the millions of people they rule over in perpetuity don't count.
Arab Israelis get to vote. West Bankers get to vote. It’s only in the Gaza Strip that they don’t. Because Hamas has refused to hold elections
Latvia Austria Netherlands Norway Israel Greece Estonia Switzerland Georgia Armenia
I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
Australia also competes.
I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
Australia at least is an offshoot of European civilization, speaking a European language and with Western values.
So, just to make sure I understand, a democracy which was populated in the last 60-70 years largely by people whose ancestors had spent hundreds of years living in Europe isnt “an offshoot of European civilisation”
Can you be clearer about what you mean?
It's only a democracy if you ignore the millions of people they rule over in perpetuity don't count.
Arab Israelis get to vote. West Bankers get to vote. It’s only in the Gaza Strip that they don’t. Because Hamas has refused to hold elections
Correction: Fatah suspended West Bank elections in 2021. Presumably because they were going to lose.
So it looks like Israelis and Israeli Arabs get to vote while those living in Palestinian-controlled areas don’t.
17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.
There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.
(And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)
I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.
As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.
I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.
TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.
He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.
The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?
Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.
When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.
I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.
I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.
I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
Truss was a Remainer.
Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
Currencies find their true value. Decades of currency debasement and trade deficits "trashed the pound". The events surrounding the mini budget and concurrent QT activities by the bank caused temporary speculation which some people made some money off.
If it was just temporary speculation, the government could have stood behind the currency and would have won. But they couldn't because the currency headed towards its true value under a Truss premiership. When more competent people took over, the currency recovered.
Interesting - I've often thought of you before as moderately intelligent.
Intelligent people can recognize the Trussite "stab in the back" myth. Her budget was bonkers. Not just the inherent energy subsidies, but also because she doesn't understand the Thatcher maxim that you need to balance the budget before you can start cutting taxes.
The 'moron premium' isn't something that intelligent people believe either. It's a lazy left-wing meme for people who want to sound pose as vaguely clever but know shit all about how economies work.
Truss took us to within hours of a meltdown of our whole pension system. Her self serving memoirs reveal her reckless, amateurish policy formation process in a stark and unforgiving light. Trying to amend the record is simply silly: she was the shortest serving PM because she was a spectacular dud. Defending the indefensible is pointless.
"I've decided to join the boycott because of Israel's inclusion."
Drag performer Crystal says she has cancelled her 800-person Eurovision viewing event because of the conflict in Gaza and Israel’s participation in the contest.
17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.
There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.
(And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)
I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.
As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.
I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.
TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.
He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.
The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?
Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.
When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.
I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.
I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.
I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
Truss was a Remainer.
Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
Currencies find their true value. Decades of currency debasement and trade deficits "trashed the pound". The events surrounding the mini budget and concurrent QT activities by the bank caused temporary speculation which some people made some money off.
If it was just temporary speculation, the government could have stood behind the currency and would have won. But they couldn't because the currency headed towards its true value under a Truss premiership. When more competent people took over, the currency recovered.
Interesting - I've often thought of you before as moderately intelligent.
Intelligent people can recognize the Trussite "stab in the back" myth. Her budget was bonkers. Not just the inherent energy subsidies, but also because she doesn't understand the Thatcher maxim that you need to balance the budget before you can start cutting taxes.
The 'moron premium' isn't something that intelligent people believe either. It's a lazy left-wing meme for people who want to sound pose as vaguely clever but know shit all about how economies work.
Truss took us to within hours of a meltdown of our whole pension system. Her self serving memoirs reveal her reckless, amateurish policy formation process in a stark and unforgiving light. Trying to amend the record is simply silly: she was the shortest serving PM because she was a spectacular dud. Defending the indefensible is pointless.
Truss was significant as the farcical end of 'neoliberalism'; her current output is essentially a continuation of this drama.
Latvia Austria Netherlands Norway Israel Greece Estonia Switzerland Georgia Armenia
I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
Australia also competes.
I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
Australia at least is an offshoot of European civilization, speaking a European language and with Western values.
So, just to make sure I understand, a democracy which was populated in the last 60-70 years largely by people whose ancestors had spent hundreds of years living in Europe isnt “an offshoot of European civilisation”
Can you be clearer about what you mean?
It's only a democracy if you ignore the millions of people they rule over in perpetuity don't count.
Arab Israelis get to vote. West Bankers get to vote. It’s only in the Gaza Strip that they don’t. Because Hamas has refused to hold elections
Correction: Fatah suspended West Bank elections in 2021. Presumably because they were going to lose.
So it looks like Israelis and Israeli Arabs get to vote while those living in Palestinian-controlled areas don’t.
But it’s Israel that isn’t a democracy.
Right…
It's amusing that some of the pro-HamasPalestinian protestors seem to think a unified Palestinian state would be a brilliant democracy, as aside from a stunted theocracy.
And it's not as though the Palestinian people will get a choice in that, either.
But that's not a reason to *not* have a Palestinian state.
Truss's budget didn't even look to address the absurdity of the 100-120k tax trap, even with her cuts to the top rate; it was as if she and Kwasi hadn't noticed.
That's when I realised she was more interested in headline ideology and not serious tax reform that'd make work pay and us more competitive.
"I've decided to join the boycott because of Israel's inclusion."
Drag performer Crystal says she has cancelled her 800-person Eurovision viewing event because of the conflict in Gaza and Israel’s participation in the contest.
Latvia Austria Netherlands Norway Israel Greece Estonia Switzerland Georgia Armenia
I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
Australia also competes.
I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
Australia at least is an offshoot of European civilization, speaking a European language and with Western values.
So, just to make sure I understand, a democracy which was populated in the last 60-70 years largely by people whose ancestors had spent hundreds of years living in Europe isnt “an offshoot of European civilisation”
Can you be clearer about what you mean?
I think he means that Jews can't be proper Europeans.
That's nonsense. Of course Jews can be proper Europeans. There are vast numbers of them who have integrated into democratic Western society, and are valuable members of society. In post-war Germany, Jews were instrumental in restoring a rechtstaat.
But that isn't Israel. Most Israelis do not come from Europe. Their religious culture is Middle Eastern, their language is Middle Eastern, their way of thinking about their neighbors is Middle Eastern. Isn't that what Zionism is about?
From Wikipedia: “Nearly half of all Israeli Jews are descended from Jews who made aliyah from Europe, while around the same number are descended from Jews who made aliyah from Arab countries, Iran, Turkey, and Central Asia.” Given some Israelis aren’t Jewish, then, yes, most Israelis do not have a European heritage. But a high proportion do.
Latvia Austria Netherlands Norway Israel Greece Estonia Switzerland Georgia Armenia
I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
Australia also competes.
I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
Australia at least is an offshoot of European civilization, speaking a European language and with Western values.
So, just to make sure I understand, a democracy which was populated in the last 60-70 years largely by people whose ancestors had spent hundreds of years living in Europe isnt “an offshoot of European civilisation”
Can you be clearer about what you mean?
It's only a democracy if you ignore the millions of people they rule over in perpetuity don't count.
Arab Israelis get to vote. West Bankers get to vote. It’s only in the Gaza Strip that they don’t. Because Hamas has refused to hold elections
West Bank settlers get a vote in Israeli elections. Palestinians in the West Bank don’t get to vote in Israeli elections.
"I've decided to join the boycott because of Israel's inclusion."
Drag performer Crystal says she has cancelled her 800-person Eurovision viewing event because of the conflict in Gaza and Israel’s participation in the contest.
Inevitably “Crystal” has an interesting Twitter feed.
Mark Urban leaves at the end of the month.
It looks a pretty good lineup for Saturday.Night.
Croatia, Estonia, Finland, Ireland, Switzerland, Armenia and the Netherlands are the highlights in my opinion.
Croatia is the bookies favourite, but I rather fancy the Dutch. Catchy and entertainingly bonkers.
It's good to see so many singing in national languages again.
It’s a good lineup apart from, yet again, the British. It’s always amazed me that a country full of some of the best singing and songwriting talent in the world, always churns out some crap for this event.
Can’t the BBC just speak to people with a record of success at songwriting, and then find an established artist who doesn’t take themselves so seriously to perform it?
I always thought that Sophie Ellis-Bextor would be a great choice, as she’s still active but her hits were a while ago, and she’s not really known in most of Europe - but then one of her songs blew up massively on a TV show, and now she’s off to tour America! Who else do we have, who’s had hits but isn’t really famous, and has a sense of humour?
So we went from -0.3% in the final quarter to +0.6% in the first? I wonder when the recession will be revised away. I expect around Q3 of this year, Q3 becomes 0.0% and Q4 becomes -0.1% or thereabouts.
Also interesting that the monthly index is out of alignment with the quarterly number again, there had been some level of agreement between the two measures, historically the monthly index has performed better with fewer revisions so I also wonder if that carries through and the YoY position is slowly revised upwards in the quarterly data to match what the monthly index already shows.
Truss's budget didn't even look to address the absurdity of the 100-120k tax trap, even with her cuts to the top rate; it was as if she and Kwasi hadn't noticed.
That's when I realised she was more interested in headline ideology and not serious tax reform that'd make work pay and us more competitive.
Stupid headlines too. Had she addresses the cliff edge by shifting the additional rate threshold down to £100k but dumped all of the allowance and childcare withdrawals that would have been seen as much more acceptable to people than what she did and it would have been a bigger overall tax cut for people £100k+ and resulted in a fairly decent overall net tax increase for the government.
"I've decided to join the boycott because of Israel's inclusion."
Drag performer Crystal says she has cancelled her 800-person Eurovision viewing event because of the conflict in Gaza and Israel’s participation in the contest.
Inevitably “Crystal” has an interesting Twitter feed.
Mark Urban leaves at the end of the month.
It looks a pretty good lineup for Saturday.Night.
Croatia, Estonia, Finland, Ireland, Switzerland, Armenia and the Netherlands are the highlights in my opinion.
Croatia is the bookies favourite, but I rather fancy the Dutch. Catchy and entertainingly bonkers.
It's good to see so many singing in national languages again.
Croatia and Switzerland are obvious favourites. I like Ireland: could do well too. The Netherlands is more at the comedy end of Eurovision, but has all the right ingredients to do well, and manages to squeeze in some real emotion at the end. Finland is all comedy and they stand out, but I don’t think it’s a good enough song to win. I liked Armenia’s entry a lot, but I think it’s too Armenian to have wide appeal. Ukraine shouldn’t be discounted. But the Italian data leak points to Israel getting the votes.
The odds on Croatia are too short. 6:1 on Switzerland or 18:1 on Ireland look more attractive. But the 66:1 on the Netherlands, that’s the long bet to go for. Can you lay anywhere? I’d lay the 20:1 for France.
"I've decided to join the boycott because of Israel's inclusion."
Drag performer Crystal says she has cancelled her 800-person Eurovision viewing event because of the conflict in Gaza and Israel’s participation in the contest.
Inevitably “Crystal” has an interesting Twitter feed.
Mark Urban leaves at the end of the month.
In fairness to "Crystal" with the interesting twitter feed, they appeared on Daily Politics yesterday with a very heavily pro-Israel guest and, although there was certainly no meeting of minds, both heard the other out and responded to the points made, which is a rarity in this kind of debate.
COMMENT: It took John ‘Fresh Start’ Swinney just 50 secs to revert to type at First Minister’s Questions, blaming UK Gov for a wholly devolved issue .. then claiming he was being “clear” with parents about teacher numbers, while doing his utmost not to be
Truss's budget didn't even look to address the absurdity of the 100-120k tax trap, even with her cuts to the top rate; it was as if she and Kwasi hadn't noticed.
That's when I realised she was more interested in headline ideology and not serious tax reform that'd make work pay and us more competitive.
Her "mates" were continually talking about IR35 so that was the focus of personal tax reform rather than anything sensible.
Now I don't like IR35 but it's required because I know removing it would push a lot of lower pay industries that compete on price into utterly false self-employment methods to save a few pennies.
Sadly because the £100k+ tax trap impacts relatively few people I just don't see anyone trying to reform it because to reform it on a tax neutral basis you probably need to raise the higher rate to 50% from that £100,000 point and that politically looks worse than existing removal...
Comments
So it looks like Israelis and Israeli Arabs get to vote while those living in Palestinian-controlled areas don’t.
But it’s Israel that isn’t a democracy.
Right…
"I've decided to join the boycott because of Israel's inclusion."
Drag performer Crystal says she has cancelled her 800-person Eurovision viewing event because of the conflict in Gaza and Israel’s participation in the contest.
https://x.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1788692478540779634
Inevitably “Crystal” has an interesting Twitter feed.
Mark Urban leaves at the end of the month.
And it's not as though the Palestinian people will get a choice in that, either.
But that's not a reason to *not* have a Palestinian state.
That's when I realised she was more interested in headline ideology and not serious tax reform that'd make work pay and us more competitive.
Croatia, Estonia, Finland, Ireland, Switzerland, Armenia and the Netherlands are the highlights in my opinion.
Croatia is the bookies favourite, but I rather fancy the Dutch. Catchy and entertainingly bonkers.
It's good to see so many singing in national languages again.
Can’t the BBC just speak to people with a record of success at songwriting, and then find an established artist who doesn’t take themselves so seriously to perform it?
I always thought that Sophie Ellis-Bextor would be a great choice, as she’s still active but her hits were a while ago, and she’s not really known in most of Europe - but then one of her songs blew up massively on a TV show, and now she’s off to tour America! Who else do we have, who’s had hits but isn’t really famous, and has a sense of humour?
Also interesting that the monthly index is out of alignment with the quarterly number again, there had been some level of agreement between the two measures, historically the monthly index has performed better with fewer revisions so I also wonder if that carries through and the YoY position is slowly revised upwards in the quarterly data to match what the monthly index already shows.
The odds on Croatia are too short. 6:1 on Switzerland or 18:1 on Ireland look more attractive. But the 66:1 on the Netherlands, that’s the long bet to go for. Can you lay anywhere? I’d lay the 20:1 for France.
Disclaimer: my track record here is poor.
NEW THREAD
Now I don't like IR35 but it's required because I know removing it would push a lot of lower pay industries that compete on price into utterly false self-employment methods to save a few pennies.
Sadly because the £100k+ tax trap impacts relatively few people I just don't see anyone trying to reform it because to reform it on a tax neutral basis you probably need to raise the higher rate to 50% from that £100,000 point and that politically looks worse than existing removal...