I think my next car will be a plug-in hybrid, but only because they no longer sell the non-hybrid version
Well that's hardly surprising. I will never have a hybrid nor an electric car unless I am priced out fuel. I won't be or very much doubt i will be driving in 2050.
How about ten years from now ?
Though you'll possibly be driven by, rather than driving a car.
What's the point of being driven?. Driving is a pleasurable experience.. unless you are driving a shite car that is. .. or spending hours waiting for an injection of electricity.
I would rather read, or sleep, or look out of the side of the car, or even catch up on PB, than have to expend effort on driving.
I enjoy driving too.
But 23 hours a day I am not driving. My car is the second most expensive thing I own and owning it is a massive waste of resources. And other people's parked cars are cluttering up the streets. Autonomous cars which turn up when we need them and go away when we do not can make us richer and our lives more pleasant. Also, I like drinking, and needing to drivr inhibits this. Also, many people e.g. my 14 year old daughter, for whom I have taken three hours out of my day to drive her to climbing and back - cannot drive. Extending mobility beyond the 70% of us with a driving license or the 65% with access to a car has to be a good thing.
Some people will always want cars. They will not want to wait for the autonomy app to deliver their sick child to the hospital at 1am - or rush hour. Or they use their car as their office. Among younger people, the rental apps have already made huge inroads (apologies) and this model is ready to go except for the autonomy part.
Elphicke is on the right of the Conservative Party so seems a strange defectio indeed, especially as she has said she will not stand for re election in her marginal seat anyway. Perhaps she feels joining Labour will distance herself from her former Tory MP ex husband, whose seat she inherited after his conviction for sexual assault
Defectio?
Is this some new sexual perversion known only to politicos, Hyufd?
Lord Kinnock sceptical over the defection 'Lord Kinnock issued a warning to the party over the decision, telling The Daily Telegraph Labour has “got to be choosy to a degree about who we allow to join out party”.
Mick Whitley MP for Birkenhead breaks cover 'her views are not the views of the Labour Party and she does not belong in the Labour Party'
He's a bit sore about not winning in a selection ballot of members for the successor seat to his current constituency, and I don't think he's been selected for any other seat yet either.
Mick Whitley MP for Birkenhead breaks cover 'her views are not the views of the Labour Party and she does not belong in the Labour Party'
He's a bit sore about not winning in a selection ballot of members for the successor seat to his current constituency, and I don't think he's been selected for any other seat yet either.
If he's not getting a gig he might sod off to Camp George. Nothing to lose, just like Nats
A Poor decision imo, by Starmer, it makes no difference electorally so why bother. All it will do is piss his base off, and in two years time he is going to need that base, he can win without her intolerant opinions.
I tend to think it doesn't matter strategically (rather than morally) either way other than to put the Tories into yet more disarray. Guessing it was planned before the locals as it could have been a rather useful distraction if had not done quite as well as they did. As it turned out, they didn't really need it. But adds to the turmoil in the Tory ranks and makes any recovery marginally less likely.
In two years Starmer will be the first Labour PM not named 'Tony' to win an election who was born since the end of the First World War and will have earned a significant amount of goodwill from all Labour supporters who don't pine for Jeremy Corbyn (who'd find a reason to hate him) due to that fact. He'll then either disappoint them or pleasantly surprise them. Whether he parked his morals for a week's good defection headlines will be long forgotten as she's not standing next time.
The mutual loathing of Blairites and Corbynites is intense. When Jezza was in charge the Blairites preferred a Tory government and worked for that outcome. Now it's roles reversed and the same with the Corbynites. They want the Tories to win. They're working for the Tories to win. I've got zero patience with it.
I was never a Blairite - I always thought of myself as on the left of the party before 2015, voted Ed M over David, very Ed Milibandite I suppose 'soft left' - but I was someone who knew Corbyn's politics and thought them dangerous and toxic.
I remember speaking to a friend who was surprised I wasn't supporting him in 2015 and the words "piss, fire, and wouldn't" left my mouth.
But yeah. I think you're right to have zero patience with the factional element - which could be tedious from the right of Labour even when was nominally on the same side.
There are, however, some of us who knew dear Jeremy's views about Jews and NATO before 2015 and were very much going "Oh no, not this bloody guy, you went for him? You do know who he is?".
I believe Taylor Parkes, probably even to the left of me wrote rather a good piece in the Quietus about knowing the issues that later became salient having actually known who he was rather than thinking was a generic cuddly socialist grandpa.
Anyway, that about sums it up for me. Someone who is naturally inclined towards the left, even the Labour left when it's on the right subjects, but had his Kronstadt with a lot of the mad and bad 'Stop the West' stuff and what it leads to long before Jeremy, without becoming a 'Blairite'.
On 8 May 2024, Elphicke defected to the Labour Party in reaction to what she described as the "broken promises of Rishi Sunak's tired and chaotic government".
She crossed the floor moments before that day's Prime Minister's Questions.[32] She was the third Conservative MP to cross the floor to Labour during that parliament, following Christian Wakeford in 2022 and Dan Poulter eleven days prior.[33]
Reflecting on the defection, Steve Baker, the Minister of State, Northern Ireland, commented on Twitter
"I have been searching in vain for a Conservative MP who thinks themself to the right of Natalie Elphicke.
One just quipped, 'I didn’t realise there was any room to her right.'"
Left-wing group Momentum said that Elphicke should have "no place in a Labour Party committed to progressive values and working-class people".
People are allowed to change their minds. Elphicke has defected. A defection is a public statement that you’ve changed your mind. If Labour says, “We are this” and Elphicke says, “I want to be that too,” to some degree, I think you have to accept her conversion at her word.
Mick Whitley MP for Birkenhead breaks cover 'her views are not the views of the Labour Party and she does not belong in the Labour Party'
I'm surprised she didn't defect to Reform UK instead of Labour.
Which one is a bigger insult to Rishi? There's your reason.
(Also, a bit more charitably, she might actually have useful stuff to say about housing, and Labour are the only party likely to have any power over that in the near future. Reform, on the other hand, really is just a pulpit for shouting crossly at the clouds.)
So. I do have to be honest here, and admit that I am getting quite discomforted by the growing feeling that I am not really sure what I am going to get when I vote in a Labour government.
I still strongly believe that Labour are the only realistic choice for the country now, and I cannot support the Tories. But in moves like the defection I do fear that Starmer is starting to look like the same boss as before, his pitch simply being that he’ll manage things a bit more competently.
Starmer is not going to be able to be all things to all people eventually. To govern is to choose. Will we get any kind of idea what choice that will be before we vote, or is that choice going to be made after the event? I do not really relish the idea of voting and not knowing what flavour of government I am going to get.
I think Starmer has very definitively chosen. The degree to which he has chosen hasn't sunk in yet.
Master strategist Keir latest Rachael Wearmouth reports Labour MPs telling her 'it has pissed everybody off' 'much wider than the left or Women's PLP' 'It has backfired spectacularly' 8 hours in. Dumb old Keir.
He'll have to hide her now. He gets a half day of headlines and has pissed off his own Party.
I was going to ask for 4.55 to be sorted, but it’s already been sorted, thank you 🙏 Was trying to put Labour rampers like Anabob in their place at pace on iPhone whilst in car, and it had my email on it 🤦♀️
For some perspective, If so many voters who vote Conservative most their lives are changing the party right now, why should it be seen so crazy for the odd MP?
Starmer should have said no? She’s standing down at the 4th July election, I didn’t realise she was, and she’s happy to call Sunak’s stop the boats plan as not working, so why should Starmer have said no?
Elphick started as campaigner in housing, probably more comfortable with Labours housing proposals than the years of Tory housing failures, so her position are a bit more nuanced I suppose than just screaming right winger.
Master strategist Keir latest Rachael Wearmouth reports Labour MPs telling her 'it has pissed everybody off' 'much wider than the left or Women's PLP' 'It has backfired spectacularly' 8 hours in. Dumb old Keir.
He'll have to hide her now. He gets a half day of headlines and has pissed off his own Party.
I think the Starmervka are still in 'where else are they going to go' mode (there're always options). The polls have made them a bit drunk.
I think my next car will be a plug-in hybrid, but only because they no longer sell the non-hybrid version
Well that's hardly surprising. I will never have a hybrid nor an electric car unless I am priced out fuel. I won't be or very much doubt i will be driving in 2050.
How about ten years from now ?
Though you'll possibly be driven by, rather than driving a car.
Oh dear, don't make the same mistake Leon did. Over a decade ago, he said all truck drivers would be out of a job in ten years. He was hilariously wrong.
I am very bearish on autonomous driving - at least in the level-5 category, which is the really useful one. We're nowhere near it yet for most purposes, despite what Musky Baby says.
It's not the same mistake - if it's one at all. You're projecting back to predict ten years from now; that's definitely a mistake.
No. I'm saying people were very bullish about the tech, which was not as promising as the hype at the time stated. I think we're still in the same position: people are investing billions in the tech, and although good progress has been made, it's still nowhere near the hype.
It's a classic 99% technology (like speech recognition). It's easy to get to 99%, which makes you think you're nearly there... but the last 1% is really hard.
My Rivian's "self driving", aka Driver Plus, is pretty good. It's great for allowing me to change the track, or to remove the wrapper from a chocolate bar.
But the problem is that it's nowhere near good enough for me to sleep or to work. And if I'm not sleeping or working, then I might as well be driving. Otherwise I'm just going to be bored.
It's all about that last 1%.
And so far - if you want that last 1% - then you need the sensor crazy vehicles that Waymo use as taxis in Los Angeles. (And that in turn is a hard sell. Because a taxi driver's time is cheap. And those sensors are expensive.)
I’d quite like ‘road trains’ on motorways. The ability to switch off for several hours of tedium on the M1 (or 5 miles of tedium on the M25) would be great. Surely that’s not far off. Please?
On 8 May 2024, Elphicke defected to the Labour Party in reaction to what she described as the "broken promises of Rishi Sunak's tired and chaotic government".
She crossed the floor moments before that day's Prime Minister's Questions.[32] She was the third Conservative MP to cross the floor to Labour during that parliament, following Christian Wakeford in 2022 and Dan Poulter eleven days prior.[33]
Reflecting on the defection, Steve Baker, the Minister of State, Northern Ireland, commented on Twitter
"I have been searching in vain for a Conservative MP who thinks themself to the right of Natalie Elphicke.
One just quipped, 'I didn’t realise there was any room to her right.'"
Left-wing group Momentum said that Elphicke should have "no place in a Labour Party committed to progressive values and working-class people".
People are allowed to change their minds. Elphicke has defected. A defection is a public statement that you’ve changed your mind. If Labour says, “We are this” and Elphicke says, “I want to be that too,” to some degree, I think you have to accept her conversion at her word.
This current word being more believable than all her previous words?
Its a mistake. It will cleave off a few more lab to green waverers and annoy the non plutocratic donors. The problem with triangulation is its all tactics and soon you no longer know where you stand.
Master strategist Keir latest Rachael Wearmouth reports Labour MPs telling her 'it has pissed everybody off' 'much wider than the left or Women's PLP' 'It has backfired spectacularly' 8 hours in. Dumb old Keir.
He'll have to hide her now. He gets a half day of headlines and has pissed off his own Party.
I think the Starmervka are still in 'where else are they going to go' mode (there're always options). The polls have made them a bit drunk.
He's decided he can ditch the left and try and dominate the centre right. He has a rude awakening coming imo. I have, often, been wrong however
Only when and if we see the David Gauke's of this world back as Tory MPs, will I believe the party has put its sensible and fit to govern hat back on.
Not holding my breath.
"Only when they agree with my views again, or are at least inclined to pretend they hold my views and keep dissent from views to a bare minimum, will the party be fit to govern again."
Lord Kinnock sceptical over the defection 'Lord Kinnock issued a warning to the party over the decision, telling The Daily Telegraph Labour has “got to be choosy to a degree about who we allow to join out party”.
Is that the same Lord Neil Kinnock who lost two General Elections?
It was a silly stunt from Labour, but all the lefties coming out of the woodwork and wringing their hands just reminds us that those of the left can't bear sacrificing ideological purity for power. They'd take the loss every time.
Still little change but another slight Reform decline
Just six down now on my 33% General Election prediction for Con, and 9% Reform still to melt back to Tory. Easypeasy so far since I made that prediction.
I think my next car will be a plug-in hybrid, but only because they no longer sell the non-hybrid version
Well that's hardly surprising. I will never have a hybrid nor an electric car unless I am priced out fuel. I won't be or very much doubt i will be driving in 2050.
How about ten years from now ?
Though you'll possibly be driven by, rather than driving a car.
Oh dear, don't make the same mistake Leon did. Over a decade ago, he said all truck drivers would be out of a job in ten years. He was hilariously wrong.
I am very bearish on autonomous driving - at least in the level-5 category, which is the really useful one. We're nowhere near it yet for most purposes, despite what Musky Baby says.
I was over-optimistic about self driving. I am always over-optimistic - but I wasn’t wrong. It is coming
You entirely dismissed the idea we would have reliable machine translation. lol
It really isnt coming for the simple reason the first time an autonomous car mows down a pedestrian it will be halted and in the courts for 5 or 6 decades deciding who's fault it is.
The car companies will persuade MPs to settle that in their favour in legislation.
Hmmm I doubt it imagine the headlines from oppositional dailies..."Governement grants autonomous car companies 00 status....licence to kill"
Liability's also an issue. When (and it will be a 'when') an MCAS_style issue occurs, or when the ML algorithm f**ks up, who is responsible for the deaths? The car owner? The driver? The manufacturer? (*). And as it is a ML system, how easy is it to go back to work out *why* it did what it did - which can be non-trivial in many systems.
(*) ISTR Volvo have accepted that they will be responsible, but have other manufacturers?
I think that sort of already exists? The algorithm behind NHS 111 has been approved as a safe medical device for example, so perhaps that sets a precedent.
Is there any Tory MP Labour wouldn't accept as a defector? John Redwood perhaps.
It's going to be popcorn time if they do. They have to follow the whip so Starmer can have some fun getting them to dance to his tune. Get her to speak up for housing Trans asylum seekers on the sick...
Still little change but another slight Reform decline
Just six down now on my 33% General Election prediction for Con, and 9% Reform still to melt back to Tory. Easypeasy so far since I made that prediction.
All 9% of the reform vote going back to the Tories - not a chance at best 3% will return to the Tories taking them to 30% and the other 6% alongside with a large number of likely Tory will just seat things out.
looking at those figures I see Labour on 48% and the Tories hitting 27% if election day has unexpectedly good weather for the early winter
Master strategist Keir latest Rachael Wearmouth reports Labour MPs telling her 'it has pissed everybody off' 'much wider than the left or Women's PLP' 'It has backfired spectacularly' 8 hours in. Dumb old Keir.
He'll have to hide her now. He gets a half day of headlines and has pissed off his own Party.
It's a loss for Starmer because the entire media narrative has been Elphick's backstory rather than her jumping ship. There are plenty of old school lefties to criticise the move like John McDonnell.
Good question by Cathy Newman. "What does it tell you about Keir Starmer's Labour Party that you can find a place for Natalie Elphicke but not Diane Abbott"
I dislike the politics of either woman, but, quite.
Lord Kinnock sceptical over the defection 'Lord Kinnock issued a warning to the party over the decision, telling The Daily Telegraph Labour has “got to be choosy to a degree about who we allow to join out party”.
Is that the same Lord Neil Kinnock who lost two General Elections?
It was a silly stunt from Labour, but all the lefties coming out of the woodwork and wringing their hands just reminds us that those of the left can't bear sacrificing ideological purity for power. They'd take the loss every time.
I’m not convinced this gets him any nearer power TBH. It is more likely to cause him problems.
Still little change but another slight Reform decline
Just six down now on my 33% General Election prediction for Con, and 9% Reform still to melt back to Tory. Easypeasy so far since I made that prediction.
All 9% of the reform vote going back to the Tories - not a chance at best 3% will return to the Tories taking them to 30% and the other 6% alongside with a large number of likely Tory will just seat things out.
looking at those figures I see Labour on 48% and the Tories hitting 27% if election day has unexpectedly good weather for the early winter
No Not all Reform, just down to 3% puts Tory’s on 33% on election night.
Reform will do well to get 3% of a General Election, even all those votes are knowingly thrown away achieving nothing. Last week showed Reform to be a busted flush. 2 councillors and less votes than UKIP in Blackpool. Campaigners against bollards and bridge closures had a better local election day than Reform.
Still little change but another slight Reform decline
Just six down now on my 33% General Election prediction for Con, and 9% Reform still to melt back to Tory. Easypeasy so far since I made that prediction.
All 9% of the reform vote going back to the Tories - not a chance at best 3% will return to the Tories taking them to 30% and the other 6% alongside with a large number of likely Tory will just seat things out.
looking at those figures I see Labour on 48% and the Tories hitting 27% if election day has unexpectedly good weather for the early winter
No Not all Reform, just down to 3% puts Tory’s on 33% on election night.
Reform will do well to get 3% of a General Election, even all those votes are knowingly thrown away achieving nothing. Last week showed Reform to be a busted flush. 2 councillors and less votes than UKIP in Blackpool. Campaigners against bollards and bridge closures had a better local election day than Reform.
Doesn't mean that they will revert to the Conservatives.
Some people, some voters, are so consumed with dislike of Sunak that they will do anything. Even back Starmer.
Natalie Elphicke has spent quite a long time on the Levelling Up, Housing and Communities Select Committee and her interventions are a lot more moderate than her reputation suggests. I’m inclined to think that she genuinely does care about housing and think that Labour would do a better job of fixing it. It’s a fairly belt and braces way of expressing that though.
I think my next car will be a plug-in hybrid, but only because they no longer sell the non-hybrid version
Well that's hardly surprising. I will never have a hybrid nor an electric car unless I am priced out fuel. I won't be or very much doubt i will be driving in 2050.
How about ten years from now ?
Though you'll possibly be driven by, rather than driving a car.
Oh dear, don't make the same mistake Leon did. Over a decade ago, he said all truck drivers would be out of a job in ten years. He was hilariously wrong.
I am very bearish on autonomous driving - at least in the level-5 category, which is the really useful one. We're nowhere near it yet for most purposes, despite what Musky Baby says.
I was over-optimistic about self driving. I am always over-optimistic - but I wasn’t wrong. It is coming
You entirely dismissed the idea we would have reliable machine translation. lol
It really isnt coming for the simple reason the first time an autonomous car mows down a pedestrian it will be halted and in the courts for 5 or 6 decades deciding who's fault it is.
The car companies will persuade MPs to settle that in their favour in legislation.
Hmmm I doubt it imagine the headlines from oppositional dailies..."Governement grants autonomous car companies 00 status....licence to kill"
Liability's also an issue. When (and it will be a 'when') an MCAS_style issue occurs, or when the ML algorithm f**ks up, who is responsible for the deaths? The car owner? The driver? The manufacturer? (*). And as it is a ML system, how easy is it to go back to work out *why* it did what it did - which can be non-trivial in many systems.
(*) ISTR Volvo have accepted that they will be responsible, but have other manufacturers?
I think that sort of already exists? The algorithm behind NHS 111 has been approved as a safe medical device for example, so perhaps that sets a precedent.
IANAE, but isn't NHS 111 a set of questions defined in advance by clinicians, with each answer given by the patient leading to either an action or further questions? A bit like the old choose-your-own-adventure books.
If that's correct, then it's analogous with 'traditional' programming, with algorithms defined by specifications (in this case, defined by clinicians).
Lord Kinnock sceptical over the defection 'Lord Kinnock issued a warning to the party over the decision, telling The Daily Telegraph Labour has “got to be choosy to a degree about who we allow to join out party”.
Is that the same Lord Neil Kinnock who lost two General Elections?
It was a silly stunt from Labour, but all the lefties coming out of the woodwork and wringing their hands just reminds us that those of the left can't bear sacrificing ideological purity for power. They'd take the loss every time.
I’m not convinced this gets him any nearer power TBH. It is more likely to cause him problems.
If he can ride the storm until next Wednesday's PMQs defection he'll be fine.
Still little change but another slight Reform decline
Just six down now on my 33% General Election prediction for Con, and 9% Reform still to melt back to Tory. Easypeasy so far since I made that prediction.
All 9% of the reform vote going back to the Tories - not a chance at best 3% will return to the Tories taking them to 30% and the other 6% alongside with a large number of likely Tory will just seat things out.
looking at those figures I see Labour on 48% and the Tories hitting 27% if election day has unexpectedly good weather for the early winter
No Not all Reform, just down to 3% puts Tory’s on 33% on election night.
Reform will do well to get 3% of a General Election, even all those votes are knowingly thrown away achieving nothing. Last week showed Reform to be a busted flush. 2 councillors and less votes than UKIP in Blackpool. Campaigners against bollards and bridge closures had a better local election day than Reform.
Doesn't mean that they will revert to the Conservatives.
Some people, some voters, are so consumed with dislike of Sunak that they will do anything. Even back Starmer.
When will Starmer have his Ratner moment?
People say, "How can you make these promises to Tory voters?", I say, "because they're total crap."
A bit taken aback this evening. Still…more joy shall be in Heaven over one sinner that repenteth, than over ninety and nine just persons who need no repentance.
Still little change but another slight Reform decline
Just six down now on my 33% General Election prediction for Con, and 9% Reform still to melt back to Tory. Easypeasy so far since I made that prediction.
All 9% of the reform vote going back to the Tories - not a chance at best 3% will return to the Tories taking them to 30% and the other 6% alongside with a large number of likely Tory will just seat things out.
looking at those figures I see Labour on 48% and the Tories hitting 27% if election day has unexpectedly good weather for the early winter
No Not all Reform, just down to 3% puts Tory’s on 33% on election night.
Reform will do well to get 3% of a General Election, even all those votes are knowingly thrown away achieving nothing. Last week showed Reform to be a busted flush. 2 councillors and less votes than UKIP in Blackpool. Campaigners against bollards and bridge closures had a better local election day than Reform.
Doesn't mean that they will revert to the Conservatives.
Some people, some voters, are so consumed with dislike of Sunak that they will do anything. Even back Starmer.
Not these reform voters no. You are essentially saying the 33% Labour got last time was votes for Corbyn, but it wasn’t. Let me explain what you don’t understand. Much of that 33% for Corbyn was actually a tribal vote for Labour, much same the 33% for Con at next election will be a tribal vote to protect the tribe, definitely not a vote for Sunak. The tribal bloc vote split between Ref and Con, its not switched anywhere else, at 38% it’s still too high a bloc vote to expect Tories to get below 33% after the division lobby of real whipped up national vote that FPTP General Elections always are.
Is there any Tory MP Labour wouldn't accept as a defector? John Redwood perhaps.
I think there are two basic tests: 1. Has nothing been offered in return at the expense of someone else, in terms of parliamentary candidacies or the House of Lords for example? 2. Does accepting the defection enhance the chances of other Labour candidates of winning seats at the general election?
If the answer to both is Yes, then it is pretty hard not to accept the defection especially with the general election looming. I think it is Yes in Elphick's case, though others might disagree. I am not sure that Yes would be the answer in respect of all Tory MPs though.
I remember resigning my Labour membership for a few years in the early days of Brown's premiership. It was when Digby Jones was made a minister and got a life peerage for his troubles. He was very clearly a closet Tory then, as events subsequently showed, even though he remained notionally a crossbencher. What got me was the fact that someone who wasn't even required to take the Labour whip was being offered ministerial influence over government policy, an appointment from the CBI being judged more worthy than that of a backbench trade unionist.
I had a slow start this morning. I spent a bit too long in the very comfortable bed, and then far too long in the massage shower
Omfg, normal showers will never be good enough again. This shower was seven showers in one. There was a really good normal, overhead shower, and then three smaller showers spraying powerfully from each side at roughly knee, waist and chest height
I normally spend five minutes in the shower. Today it must have been fifteen. It did feel quite like a massage as I slowly turned around and around
Even though I ended up setting off late, I was still expecting to easily reach Roncesvalles, the usual first day target for the Camino. The place was fully booked, so I took the nice looking room 5km closer, in Espinal
I was a bit disappointed then that I was only doing a short, 34km walk today. But thank god. I don't think I could have made it to Roncesvalles, I forgot about the climbing today, and didn't get to Espinal until after 8pm
I've just had a big steak, little sweet red peppers and chips for dinner. When I've finished my glass of wine, I'm heading for bed
Still little change but another slight Reform decline
Just six down now on my 33% General Election prediction for Con, and 9% Reform still to melt back to Tory. Easypeasy so far since I made that prediction.
All 9% of the reform vote going back to the Tories - not a chance at best 3% will return to the Tories taking them to 30% and the other 6% alongside with a large number of likely Tory will just seat things out.
looking at those figures I see Labour on 48% and the Tories hitting 27% if election day has unexpectedly good weather for the early winter
No Not all Reform, just down to 3% puts Tory’s on 33% on election night.
Reform will do well to get 3% of a General Election, even all those votes are knowingly thrown away achieving nothing. Last week showed Reform to be a busted flush. 2 councillors and less votes than UKIP in Blackpool. Campaigners against bollards and bridge closures had a better local election day than Reform.
Doesn't mean that they will revert to the Conservatives.
Some people, some voters, are so consumed with dislike of Sunak that they will do anything. Even back Starmer.
When will Starmer have his Ratner moment?
People say, "How can you make these promises to Tory voters?", I say, "because they're total crap."
I thought it was Rayner said that sort of thing about Tory voters?
Still little change but another slight Reform decline
Just six down now on my 33% General Election prediction for Con, and 9% Reform still to melt back to Tory. Easypeasy so far since I made that prediction.
All 9% of the reform vote going back to the Tories - not a chance at best 3% will return to the Tories taking them to 30% and the other 6% alongside with a large number of likely Tory will just seat things out.
looking at those figures I see Labour on 48% and the Tories hitting 27% if election day has unexpectedly good weather for the early winter
No Not all Reform, just down to 3% puts Tory’s on 33% on election night.
Reform will do well to get 3% of a General Election, even all those votes are knowingly thrown away achieving nothing. Last week showed Reform to be a busted flush. 2 councillors and less votes than UKIP in Blackpool. Campaigners against bollards and bridge closures had a better local election day than Reform.
Doesn't mean that they will revert to the Conservatives.
Some people, some voters, are so consumed with dislike of Sunak that they will do anything. Even back Starmer.
Not these reform voters no. You are essentially saying the 33% Labour got last time was votes for Corbyn, but it wasn’t. Let me explain what you don’t understand. Much of that 33% for Corbyn was actually a tribal vote for Labour, much same the 33% for Con at next election will be a tribal vote to protect the tribe, definitely not a vote for Sunak. The tribal bloc vote split between Ref and Con, its not switched anywhere else, at 38% it’s still too high a bloc vote to expect Tories to get below 33% after the division lobby of real whipped up national vote that FPTP General Elections always are.
Are Reform voters tribal Tories? Or are they Boris, Brexit, Redwallers. It matters - the latter group doesn't give a tribal toss.
Reform will do well to get 3% of a General Election
Fighting talk from you. But I'll remind you that, in their previous guise of the Brexit Party, in the seats they stood in at the last general election they got 4%, even without standing in the seats held by Conservative MPs.
I had a slow start this morning. I spent a bit too long in the very comfortable bed, and then far too long in the massage shower
Omfg, normal showers will never be good enough again. This shower was seven showers in one. There was a really good normal, overhead shower, and then three smaller showers spraying powerfully from each side at roughly knee, waist and chest height
I normally spend five minutes in the shower. Today it must have been fifteen. It did feel quite like a massage as I slowly turned around and around
Even though I ended up setting off late, I was still expecting to easily reach Roncesvalles, the usual first day target for the Camino. The place was fully booked, so I took the nice looking room 5km closer, in Espinal
I was a bit disappointed then that I was only doing a short, 34km walk today. But thank god. I don't think I could have made it to Roncesvalles, I forgot about the climbing today, and didn't get to Espinal until after 8pm
I've just had a big steak, little sweet red peppers and chips for dinner. When I've finished my glass of wine, I'm heading for bed
This was my approach to Espinal
I'm sorely tempted to take my Brompton on your journey.
I think my next car will be a plug-in hybrid, but only because they no longer sell the non-hybrid version
Well that's hardly surprising. I will never have a hybrid nor an electric car unless I am priced out fuel. I won't be or very much doubt i will be driving in 2050.
How about ten years from now ?
Though you'll possibly be driven by, rather than driving a car.
Oh dear, don't make the same mistake Leon did. Over a decade ago, he said all truck drivers would be out of a job in ten years. He was hilariously wrong.
I am very bearish on autonomous driving - at least in the level-5 category, which is the really useful one. We're nowhere near it yet for most purposes, despite what Musky Baby says.
It's not the same mistake - if it's one at all. You're projecting back to predict ten years from now; that's definitely a mistake.
No. I'm saying people were very bullish about the tech, which was not as promising as the hype at the time stated. I think we're still in the same position: people are investing billions in the tech, and although good progress has been made, it's still nowhere near the hype.
It's a classic 99% technology (like speech recognition). It's easy to get to 99%, which makes you think you're nearly there... but the last 1% is really hard.
My Rivian's "self driving", aka Driver Plus, is pretty good. It's great for allowing me to change the track, or to remove the wrapper from a chocolate bar.
But the problem is that it's nowhere near good enough for me to sleep or to work. And if I'm not sleeping or working, then I might as well be driving. Otherwise I'm just going to be bored.
It's all about that last 1%.
And so far - if you want that last 1% - then you need the sensor crazy vehicles that Waymo use as taxis in Los Angeles. (And that in turn is a hard sell. Because a taxi driver's time is cheap. And those sensors are expensive.)
I’d quite like ‘road trains’ on motorways. The ability to switch off for several hours of tedium on the M1 (or 5 miles of tedium on the M25) would be great. Surely that’s not far off. Please?
Apart from the technology issues, there is the price of insurance and the vexed question of who is liable and for how much.
A bit taken aback this evening. Still…more joy shall be in Heaven over one sinner that repenteth, than over ninety and nine just persons who need no repentance.
Very similar sputterings in June 1940, when on the eve of the Republican National Convention, Franklin Roosevelt announced that two prominent Republican politicos were joining his cabinet:
> Henry Stimson as Secretary of War; formerly War Sec. for Wm Howard Taft & Sec. of State for Herbert Hoover; and
> Frank Knox as Secretary of the Navy; Chicago newspaper publisher and 1936 Republican candidate for Vice President.
Motive for both was the same: they strongly supported FDR's foreign policy of maximum aid to UK short of US entering WW2.
Reform will do well to get 3% of a General Election
Fighting talk from you. But I'll remind you that, in their previous guise of the Brexit Party, in the seats they stood in at the last general election they got 4%, even without standing in the seats held by Conservative MPs.
I think Reform will get around 4-5% in the GE, Greens 3-4%, Lib Dems 11%.
I reckon there’s 5% or so to go from Ref to Con. Still leaves the blocs at roughly 60:35
Still little change but another slight Reform decline
Just six down now on my 33% General Election prediction for Con, and 9% Reform still to melt back to Tory. Easypeasy so far since I made that prediction.
All 9% of the reform vote going back to the Tories - not a chance at best 3% will return to the Tories taking them to 30% and the other 6% alongside with a large number of likely Tory will just seat things out.
looking at those figures I see Labour on 48% and the Tories hitting 27% if election day has unexpectedly good weather for the early winter
No Not all Reform, just down to 3% puts Tory’s on 33% on election night.
Reform will do well to get 3% of a General Election, even all those votes are knowingly thrown away achieving nothing. Last week showed Reform to be a busted flush. 2 councillors and less votes than UKIP in Blackpool. Campaigners against bollards and bridge closures had a better local election day than Reform.
Doesn't mean that they will revert to the Conservatives.
Some people, some voters, are so consumed with dislike of Sunak that they will do anything. Even back Starmer.
Not these reform voters no. You are essentially saying the 33% Labour got last time was votes for Corbyn, but it wasn’t. Let me explain what you don’t understand. Much of that 33% for Corbyn was actually a tribal vote for Labour, much same the 33% for Con at next election will be a tribal vote to protect the tribe, definitely not a vote for Sunak. The tribal bloc vote split between Ref and Con, its not switched anywhere else, at 38% it’s still too high a bloc vote to expect Tories to get below 33% after the division lobby of real whipped up national vote that FPTP General Elections always are.
Are Reform voters tribal Tories? Or are they Boris, Brexit, Redwallers. It matters - the latter group doesn't give a tribal toss.
This is the perfect question. Some people won’t like the answer, but it’s true.
Start with I reverse your question. Are Lab and Lib Dem votes in Blue Wall in 2024 tribal or a reaction to the same Boris Brexit as motivates voters in the redwall in 2019?
The 2024 General Election is a Brexit Election. This is why Tories will get at least 33% of Boris 43% at subsequent General Election.
The commentariat conclusion on 6th July, two days after the election, and bourn out by the response to the exit poll, is Brexit is still alive and strong in UK politics, not melted away in the last 5 years.
Tory tribalism + Brexit still not unwound moves the Ref back to Con on voting day.
I’ll go further. Are we expecting Brexit to ever unwind in UK politics? Voters changed their votes and allegiance of their lives over it, why are we expecting it to unwind back to pre Brexit business as usual? Maybe we shouldn’t. Red Wall throwing Labour out of power, Blue Wall throwing Tories out of power, might be the new normal in British politics.
33% might be on low side of what Conservatives are capable of at the coming General Election.
Master strategist Keir latest Rachael Wearmouth reports Labour MPs telling her 'it has pissed everybody off' 'much wider than the left or Women's PLP' 'It has backfired spectacularly' 8 hours in. Dumb old Keir.
He'll have to hide her now. He gets a half day of headlines and has pissed off his own Party.
I think the Starmervka are still in 'where else are they going to go' mode (there're always options). The polls have made them a bit drunk.
He's decided he can ditch the left and try and dominate the centre right. He has a rude awakening coming imo. I have, often, been wrong however
It works in the short term. Not in the long. The RedWall didn't piss off for no reason. Sooner or later voters that you take for granted go somewhere else. But given that his planning horizon is one Parliament deep, he'll probably get away with it. Not sure about two tho...
Master strategist Keir latest Rachael Wearmouth reports Labour MPs telling her 'it has pissed everybody off' 'much wider than the left or Women's PLP' 'It has backfired spectacularly' 8 hours in. Dumb old Keir.
He'll have to hide her now. He gets a half day of headlines and has pissed off his own Party.
I think the Starmervka are still in 'where else are they going to go' mode (there're always options). The polls have made them a bit drunk.
He's decided he can ditch the left and try and dominate the centre right. He has a rude awakening coming imo. I have, often, been wrong however
It works in the short term. Not in the long. The RedWall didn't piss off for no reason. Sooner or later voters that you take for granted go somewhere else. But given that his planning horizon is one Parliament deep, he'll probably get away with it. Not sure about two tho...
It would be a terrible, terrible tragedy to only have a one term government. How would our democracy ever survive?
(Unless Braverman is the Leader of the Opposition. In which case, the answer is 'not at all.')
Master strategist Keir latest Rachael Wearmouth reports Labour MPs telling her 'it has pissed everybody off' 'much wider than the left or Women's PLP' 'It has backfired spectacularly' 8 hours in. Dumb old Keir.
He'll have to hide her now. He gets a half day of headlines and has pissed off his own Party.
I think the Starmervka are still in 'where else are they going to go' mode (there're always options). The polls have made them a bit drunk.
He's decided he can ditch the left and try and dominate the centre right. He has a rude awakening coming imo. I have, often, been wrong however
It works in the short term. Not in the long. The RedWall didn't piss off for no reason. Sooner or later voters that you take for granted go somewhere else. But given that his planning horizon is one Parliament deep, he'll probably get away with it. Not sure about two tho...
Trouble is, he's getting heat from his own side within 6 hours. So it's not working in the short term. It's an open goal for those fighting him from the left 'all the same, in bed with the far right' , his own MPs are furious and any egg on Tory faces, who cares? Everyone thinks they are trash already
I think my next car will be a plug-in hybrid, but only because they no longer sell the non-hybrid version
Well that's hardly surprising. I will never have a hybrid nor an electric car unless I am priced out fuel. I won't be or very much doubt i will be driving in 2050.
How about ten years from now ?
Though you'll possibly be driven by, rather than driving a car.
Oh dear, don't make the same mistake Leon did. Over a decade ago, he said all truck drivers would be out of a job in ten years. He was hilariously wrong.
I am very bearish on autonomous driving - at least in the level-5 category, which is the really useful one. We're nowhere near it yet for most purposes, despite what Musky Baby says.
I was over-optimistic about self driving. I am always over-optimistic - but I wasn’t wrong. It is coming
You entirely dismissed the idea we would have reliable machine translation. lol
It really isnt coming for the simple reason the first time an autonomous car mows down a pedestrian it will be halted and in the courts for 5 or 6 decades deciding who's fault it is.
The car companies will persuade MPs to settle that in their favour in legislation.
Hmmm I doubt it imagine the headlines from oppositional dailies..."Governement grants autonomous car companies 00 status....licence to kill"
Liability's also an issue. When (and it will be a 'when') an MCAS_style issue occurs, or when the ML algorithm f**ks up, who is responsible for the deaths? The car owner? The driver? The manufacturer? (*). And as it is a ML system, how easy is it to go back to work out *why* it did what it did - which can be non-trivial in many systems.
(*) ISTR Volvo have accepted that they will be responsible, but have other manufacturers?
I think that sort of already exists? The algorithm behind NHS 111 has been approved as a safe medical device for example, so perhaps that sets a precedent.
IANAE, but isn't NHS 111 a set of questions defined in advance by clinicians, with each answer given by the patient leading to either an action or further questions? A bit like the old choose-your-own-adventure books.
If that's correct, then it's analogous with 'traditional' programming, with algorithms defined by specifications (in this case, defined by clinicians).
Whereas ML/AI would work rather differently.
I still keep thinking about one of my original 'low hanging fruits' use of LLM's. Let a patient book an appointment with their GP and describe the reason/issue. Then let the LLM clarify it and put a few helpful questions in line for the GP to see. Spend £2k or so and you could also have a full private decent LLM scan their medical history and suggest even better questions.
Seems (to my uneducated mind) a bit of a win for a relatively small outgoing relative to the cost of GP time and/or missed symptoms due to overwork.
If you wanted to take it a tiny bit further - an LLM which had your medical records which asked you a few triage questions first. Not even attempt to diagnose - just 'maybe ask about X', 'check about family history of Y'.
Two grand or so if buying one private high-function LLM per practice.
Reform will do well to get 3% of a General Election
Fighting talk from you. But I'll remind you that, in their previous guise of the Brexit Party, in the seats they stood in at the last general election they got 4%, even without standing in the seats held by Conservative MPs.
🙂↔️
UKIP were quite clearly in voters minds a pressure group FOR something, which 52% of the electorate supported, which explained the votes they got in all kinds of elections.
What are reform for in the minds of voters? They are mere wind, standing on a manifesto of Unicorns.
You don’t realise you are comparing substance v nothing, when you claim nothing pulls in the equivalent votes as substance.
Has everyone seen this? See the Kuenssberg vitriol, she despises Starmer more than we on PB do. With the BBC editorial on Team Tory, Starmer has his work cut out to win anything.
Still little change but another slight Reform decline
Just six down now on my 33% General Election prediction for Con, and 9% Reform still to melt back to Tory. Easypeasy so far since I made that prediction.
I'm almost with you. I don't think the Tories will (quite) poll 33, but take 5 from Reform and add to Con and the rest look about right, unless something dramatic happens between now and January 2025.
I had a slow start this morning. I spent a bit too long in the very comfortable bed, and then far too long in the massage shower
Omfg, normal showers will never be good enough again. This shower was seven showers in one. There was a really good normal, overhead shower, and then three smaller showers spraying powerfully from each side at roughly knee, waist and chest height
I normally spend five minutes in the shower. Today it must have been fifteen. It did feel quite like a massage as I slowly turned around and around
Even though I ended up setting off late, I was still expecting to easily reach Roncesvalles, the usual first day target for the Camino. The place was fully booked, so I took the nice looking room 5km closer, in Espinal
I was a bit disappointed then that I was only doing a short, 34km walk today. But thank god. I don't think I could have made it to Roncesvalles, I forgot about the climbing today, and didn't get to Espinal until after 8pm
I've just had a big steak, little sweet red peppers and chips for dinner. When I've finished my glass of wine, I'm heading for bed
This was my approach to Espinal
.For never, since created man,
Met such embodied force, as named with these
Could merit more than that small infantry
Warred on by cranes, though all the giant brood
Of Phlegra with the heroic race were joined
That fought at Thebes and Ilium, on each side
Mixed with auxiliar gods; and what resounds
In fable or romance of Uther's son
Begirt with British and Armoric knights ;
And all who since, baptized or infidel,
Jousted in Aspramont, or Montalban,
Damasco, or Morocco, or Trebisond,
Or whom Biserta sent from Afric shore,
When Charlemain with all his peerage fell
By Fontarabia.
My point being, Charlemagne with all his peerage fell at Roncesvalles, and Milton knew that perfectly well. Just imagine being so good at poetry that you can afford to pass over a name as magical as Roncesvalles for metrical reasons.
I had a slow start this morning. I spent a bit too long in the very comfortable bed, and then far too long in the massage shower
Omfg, normal showers will never be good enough again. This shower was seven showers in one. There was a really good normal, overhead shower, and then three smaller showers spraying powerfully from each side at roughly knee, waist and chest height
I normally spend five minutes in the shower. Today it must have been fifteen. It did feel quite like a massage as I slowly turned around and around
Even though I ended up setting off late, I was still expecting to easily reach Roncesvalles, the usual first day target for the Camino. The place was fully booked, so I took the nice looking room 5km closer, in Espinal
I was a bit disappointed then that I was only doing a short, 34km walk today. But thank god. I don't think I could have made it to Roncesvalles, I forgot about the climbing today, and didn't get to Espinal until after 8pm
I've just had a big steak, little sweet red peppers and chips for dinner. When I've finished my glass of wine, I'm heading for bed
This was my approach to Espinal
.For never, since created man,
Met such embodied force, as named with these
Could merit more than that small infantry
Warred on by cranes, though all the giant brood
Of Phlegra with the heroic race were joined
That fought at Thebes and Ilium, on each side
Mixed with auxiliar gods; and what resounds
In fable or romance of Uther's son
Begirt with British and Armoric knights ;
And all who since, baptized or infidel,
Jousted in Aspramont, or Montalban,
Damasco, or Morocco, or Trebisond,
Or whom Biserta sent from Afric shore,
When Charlemain with all his peerage fell
By Fontarabia.
My point being, Charlemagne with all his peerage fell at Roncesvalles, and Milton knew that perfectly well. Just imagine being so good at poetry that you can afford to pass over a name as magical as Roncesvalles for metrical reasons.
Er, Charlemagne didn't die at Roncesvalles. Wrong Frank Syndrome, perhaps?
Still little change but another slight Reform decline
Just six down now on my 33% General Election prediction for Con, and 9% Reform still to melt back to Tory. Easypeasy so far since I made that prediction.
I'm almost with you. I don't think the Tories will (quite) poll 33, but take 5 from Reform and add to Con and the rest look about right, unless something dramatic happens between now and January 2025.
January 🙄
Rishi at the podium in Downing St next Monday morning, at 1037, so it’s time for elevenses with re-election team after 15 minutes explaining how the plan is working, and it’s the only plan around. Once called, watch Labours lead squeezed, a la 2017.
I’ll be here, on PB, basking in having called it. 4th July. Everyone will be on my working assumption from then. I will own this place.
I have learnt from TSE how to be magnanimous in such situations.
I think my next car will be a plug-in hybrid, but only because they no longer sell the non-hybrid version
Well that's hardly surprising. I will never have a hybrid nor an electric car unless I am priced out fuel. I won't be or very much doubt i will be driving in 2050.
And someone born today will almost certainly never have a petrol powered car.
That's change, that is.
One thing that is disappearing is manual transmissions. Between electric vehicles, hybrids of various types and conventional automatics, manuals must be just 20% or so of new vehicle sales.
I dont think either of my boys will ever drive one. No double declutching for them.
I had a slow start this morning. I spent a bit too long in the very comfortable bed, and then far too long in the massage shower
Omfg, normal showers will never be good enough again. This shower was seven showers in one. There was a really good normal, overhead shower, and then three smaller showers spraying powerfully from each side at roughly knee, waist and chest height
I normally spend five minutes in the shower. Today it must have been fifteen. It did feel quite like a massage as I slowly turned around and around
Even though I ended up setting off late, I was still expecting to easily reach Roncesvalles, the usual first day target for the Camino. The place was fully booked, so I took the nice looking room 5km closer, in Espinal
I was a bit disappointed then that I was only doing a short, 34km walk today. But thank god. I don't think I could have made it to Roncesvalles, I forgot about the climbing today, and didn't get to Espinal until after 8pm
I've just had a big steak, little sweet red peppers and chips for dinner. When I've finished my glass of wine, I'm heading for bed
This was my approach to Espinal
.For never, since created man,
Met such embodied force, as named with these
Could merit more than that small infantry
Warred on by cranes, though all the giant brood
Of Phlegra with the heroic race were joined
That fought at Thebes and Ilium, on each side
Mixed with auxiliar gods; and what resounds
In fable or romance of Uther's son
Begirt with British and Armoric knights ;
And all who since, baptized or infidel,
Jousted in Aspramont, or Montalban,
Damasco, or Morocco, or Trebisond,
Or whom Biserta sent from Afric shore,
When Charlemain with all his peerage fell
By Fontarabia.
My point being, Charlemagne with all his peerage fell at Roncesvalles, and Milton knew that perfectly well. Just imagine being so good at poetry that you can afford to pass over a name as magical as Roncesvalles for metrical reasons.
Er, Charlemagne didn't die at Roncesvalles. Wrong Frank Syndrome, perhaps?
I said fell, not died, as did Milton, so take it up with him.
Battle of Roncevaux 778, most memorable date ever Christmas day 800 when Charles gets crowned HRE by the Pope, so we know he got through.
Has everyone seen this? See the Kuenssberg vitriol, she despises Starmer more than we on PB do. With the BBC editorial on Team Tory, Starmer has his work cut out to win anything.
Still little change but another slight Reform decline
Just six down now on my 33% General Election prediction for Con, and 9% Reform still to melt back to Tory. Easypeasy so far since I made that prediction.
I'm almost with you. I don't think the Tories will (quite) poll 33, but take 5 from Reform and add to Con and the rest look about right, unless something dramatic happens between now and January 2025.
I'm not - these changes are well within margin of error. Building GE predictions from a point here and there in a poll isn't a serious strategy.
Apart from one larger sample poll for The Sun at the end of March, Savanta has consistently polled 8-11% for Reform and apart from a couple of polls (one of those the aforementioned large sample poll for The Sun) has had the Conservatives between 25 and 27% - in other words, this poll is nothing new or significant, it's well within the normal polling range for Savanta.
I'd be more impressed if one of the pollsters such as Redfield & Wilton who show Reform at 12-14% showed them at 9%. Until we see significant movement from a pollster like that, I'll remain unconvinced there is either any significant weakening in Reform's support or a significant move forward in support for the Conservatives who remain becalmed in the mid to upper 20s.
I think my next car will be a plug-in hybrid, but only because they no longer sell the non-hybrid version
Well that's hardly surprising. I will never have a hybrid nor an electric car unless I am priced out fuel. I won't be or very much doubt i will be driving in 2050.
How about ten years from now ?
Though you'll possibly be driven by, rather than driving a car.
Oh dear, don't make the same mistake Leon did. Over a decade ago, he said all truck drivers would be out of a job in ten years. He was hilariously wrong.
I am very bearish on autonomous driving - at least in the level-5 category, which is the really useful one. We're nowhere near it yet for most purposes, despite what Musky Baby says.
I was over-optimistic about self driving. I am always over-optimistic - but I wasn’t wrong. It is coming
You entirely dismissed the idea we would have reliable machine translation. lol
It really isnt coming for the simple reason the first time an autonomous car mows down a pedestrian it will be halted and in the courts for 5 or 6 decades deciding who's fault it is.
Autonomous vehicles have mowed down lots of pedestrians in the US.
And yet they continue to proliferate (albeit slowly).
Well the us is used to death, isnt it 30k a year road casualties, plus mass shootings etc
The last number I saw was 42k deaths on the roads. Guns are 50k per annum.
The entire Korean War was 36,000 USA servicemen killed.
Still little change but another slight Reform decline
Just six down now on my 33% General Election prediction for Con, and 9% Reform still to melt back to Tory. Easypeasy so far since I made that prediction.
All 9% of the reform vote going back to the Tories - not a chance at best 3% will return to the Tories taking them to 30% and the other 6% alongside with a large number of likely Tory will just seat things out.
looking at those figures I see Labour on 48% and the Tories hitting 27% if election day has unexpectedly good weather for the early winter
No Not all Reform, just down to 3% puts Tory’s on 33% on election night.
Reform will do well to get 3% of a General Election, even all those votes are knowingly thrown away achieving nothing. Last week showed Reform to be a busted flush. 2 councillors and less votes than UKIP in Blackpool. Campaigners against bollards and bridge closures had a better local election day than Reform.
Doesn't mean that they will revert to the Conservatives.
Some people, some voters, are so consumed with dislike of Sunak that they will do anything. Even back Starmer.
Not these reform voters no. You are essentially saying the 33% Labour got last time was votes for Corbyn, but it wasn’t. Let me explain what you don’t understand. Much of that 33% for Corbyn was actually a tribal vote for Labour, much same the 33% for Con at next election will be a tribal vote to protect the tribe, definitely not a vote for Sunak. The tribal bloc vote split between Ref and Con, its not switched anywhere else, at 38% it’s still too high a bloc vote to expect Tories to get below 33% after the division lobby of real whipped up national vote that FPTP General Elections always are.
Are Reform voters tribal Tories? Or are they Boris, Brexit, Redwallers. It matters - the latter group doesn't give a tribal toss.
This is the perfect question. Some people won’t like the answer, but it’s true.
Start with I reverse your question. Are Lab and Lib Dem votes in Blue Wall in 2024 tribal or a reaction to the same Boris Brexit as motivates voters in the redwall in 2019?
The 2024 General Election is a Brexit Election. This is why Tories will get at least 33% of Boris 43% at subsequent General Election.
The commentariat conclusion on 6th July, two days after the election, and bourn out by the response to the exit poll, is Brexit is still alive and strong in UK politics, not melted away in the last 5 years.
Tory tribalism + Brexit still not unwound moves the Ref back to Con on voting day.
I’ll go further. Are we expecting Brexit to ever unwind in UK politics? Voters changed their votes and allegiance of their lives over it, why are we expecting it to unwind back to pre Brexit business as usual? Maybe we shouldn’t. Red Wall throwing Labour out of power, Blue Wall throwing Tories out of power, might be the new normal in British politics.
33% might be on low side of what Conservatives are capable of at the coming General Election.
What's the evidence that 2024/25 will be a Brexit election?
The YouGov issues tracker (pick up to three most important issues facing the UK) had Brexit at 63% and 65% in the polls either side of 12th December 2019, it's 14% now.
Which party is best at handling Brexit? On 1st December 2019 it was Conservatives 31%, Liberal Democrats 15%, Labour 13%, UKIP 5%, Other 5%, Don't Know 18%, None of them 13%. Now it's Labour 19%, Conservative 15%, Liberal Democrats 9%, Other 11%, Don't Know 27%, None of them 19%.
Brexit as an important issue has gone from number one issue by a large margin on 1st December 2019 to 8th on a 16 topic list on 6th May's poll. You might say that could be remainers now settling down to the reality that there's no quick reversal of Brexit on the horizon but the subsets (with the normal polling health warnings about reading too much into subsets) don't support that.
Subsets thinking that Brexit is one of the (max three) important issues facing the UK. Conservative voters: Down from 76% to 8%. North of England voters: Down from 63% to 16% Leave voters: Down from 71% to 8% 65+ voters: Down from 68% to 15%
That's not to say that the concerns of leave and remain have been homogenised. Current top five of Leave voters are Immigration & Asylum, Economy, Health, Crime and Defence & Security. The current top five of Remain voters are Health, Economy, Environment, Housing and Brexit. But overall it looks like 2024/25 will be a regular general election where the economy takes priority with the NHS being a close second.
The evidence is that it's gone from a highly salient issue where the Tories had a big lead to a more minor issue where the Tories have no lead.
Has everyone seen this? See the Kuenssberg vitriol, she despises Starmer more than we on PB do. With the BBC editorial on Team Tory, Starmer has his work cut out to win anything.
I had a slow start this morning. I spent a bit too long in the very comfortable bed, and then far too long in the massage shower
Omfg, normal showers will never be good enough again. This shower was seven showers in one. There was a really good normal, overhead shower, and then three smaller showers spraying powerfully from each side at roughly knee, waist and chest height
I normally spend five minutes in the shower. Today it must have been fifteen. It did feel quite like a massage as I slowly turned around and around
Even though I ended up setting off late, I was still expecting to easily reach Roncesvalles, the usual first day target for the Camino. The place was fully booked, so I took the nice looking room 5km closer, in Espinal
I was a bit disappointed then that I was only doing a short, 34km walk today. But thank god. I don't think I could have made it to Roncesvalles, I forgot about the climbing today, and didn't get to Espinal until after 8pm
I've just had a big steak, little sweet red peppers and chips for dinner. When I've finished my glass of wine, I'm heading for bed
This was my approach to Espinal
Bravo
I did a humble 16km today, but it was immensely gratifying. Saw three roe deer (an ancient Italian subspecies here in the gargano) and loads of orchids. Had wild boar for supper with primitivo. Walked into quite a noomy hamlet - with a weird bell tower
Why the hint of noom? It was all built in the 1930s. So it’s fascist (worship of nature?). I suspect something happened here - also fascism plus ancient pagan forest with primordial trees plus eerie early Christian shrines plus Neolithic remnants = noom
And there is something intensely satisfying about WALKING a long way from your last bed to your next bed, in a different settlement. Nomadic. Also I sorted the boredom problem - audiobooks
Still little change but another slight Reform decline
Just six down now on my 33% General Election prediction for Con, and 9% Reform still to melt back to Tory. Easypeasy so far since I made that prediction.
I'm almost with you. I don't think the Tories will (quite) poll 33, but take 5 from Reform and add to Con and the rest look about right, unless something dramatic happens between now and January 2025.
Look at the large movements in Con and Lab poll scores during the campaign periods for the last two general elections. They took place without any one big dramatic thing happening.
The Tories will win a much larger voteshare than 33%. They have hardly started yet on showing films of policemen chucking immigrants into the backs of vans on the way to deportation. What little they did for the local elections must have gone down like free beer and sex in the focus groups. Much more effective than saying let's have an Australian-style points system. More visceral.
Also a lot more resources will go into dirty tricks than would pay for a Susan Hall rumour-type job.
It's highly unlikely they'll go for Jan 2025 but that's a different issue.
I had a slow start this morning. I spent a bit too long in the very comfortable bed, and then far too long in the massage shower
Omfg, normal showers will never be good enough again. This shower was seven showers in one. There was a really good normal, overhead shower, and then three smaller showers spraying powerfully from each side at roughly knee, waist and chest height
I normally spend five minutes in the shower. Today it must have been fifteen. It did feel quite like a massage as I slowly turned around and around
Even though I ended up setting off late, I was still expecting to easily reach Roncesvalles, the usual first day target for the Camino. The place was fully booked, so I took the nice looking room 5km closer, in Espinal
I was a bit disappointed then that I was only doing a short, 34km walk today. But thank god. I don't think I could have made it to Roncesvalles, I forgot about the climbing today, and didn't get to Espinal until after 8pm
I've just had a big steak, little sweet red peppers and chips for dinner. When I've finished my glass of wine, I'm heading for bed
This was my approach to Espinal
Bravo
I did a humble 16km today, but it was immensely gratifying. Saw three roe deer (an ancient Italian subspecies here in the gargano) and loads of orchids. Had wild boar for supper with primitivo. Walked into quite a noomy hamlet - with a weird bell tower
Why the hint of noom? It was all built in the 1930s. So it’s fascist (worship of nature?). I suspect something happened here - also fascism plus ancient pagan forest with primordial trees plus eerie early Christian shrines plus Neolithic remnants = noom
And there is something intensely satisfying about WALKING a long way from your last bed to your next bed, in a different settlement. Nomadic. Also I sorted the boredom problem - audiobooks
Distinct bellend tower energy, at least in my eyes
Proof that I don't understand other people at all is the fact that most people have seemingly decided that they prefer to communicate with each other via text messages of one kind or another, rather than hearing each others voices on the phone, as in a traditional phone call. It's so much more friendly to hear a voice than read a message, yet that's what people have decided they prefer. Totally bizarre.
I had a slow start this morning. I spent a bit too long in the very comfortable bed, and then far too long in the massage shower
Omfg, normal showers will never be good enough again. This shower was seven showers in one. There was a really good normal, overhead shower, and then three smaller showers spraying powerfully from each side at roughly knee, waist and chest height
I normally spend five minutes in the shower. Today it must have been fifteen. It did feel quite like a massage as I slowly turned around and around
Even though I ended up setting off late, I was still expecting to easily reach Roncesvalles, the usual first day target for the Camino. The place was fully booked, so I took the nice looking room 5km closer, in Espinal
I was a bit disappointed then that I was only doing a short, 34km walk today. But thank god. I don't think I could have made it to Roncesvalles, I forgot about the climbing today, and didn't get to Espinal until after 8pm
I've just had a big steak, little sweet red peppers and chips for dinner. When I've finished my glass of wine, I'm heading for bed
This was my approach to Espinal
Bravo
I did a humble 16km today, but it was immensely gratifying. Saw three roe deer (an ancient Italian subspecies here in the gargano) and loads of orchids. Had wild boar for supper with primitivo. Walked into quite a noomy hamlet - with a weird bell tower
Why the hint of noom? It was all built in the 1930s. So it’s fascist (worship of nature?). I suspect something happened here - also fascism plus ancient pagan forest with primordial trees plus eerie early Christian shrines plus Neolithic remnants = noom
And there is something intensely satisfying about WALKING a long way from your last bed to your next bed, in a different settlement. Nomadic. Also I sorted the boredom problem - audiobooks
So it turned out there was a way through the woods after all. Pity, I preferred the original:
They shut the road through the woods Seventy years ago. Weather and rain have undone it again, And now you would never know There was once a road through the woods Before they planted the trees. It is underneath the coppice and heath And the thin anemones. Only the keeper sees That, where the ring-dove broods, And the badgers roll at ease, There was once a road through the woods.
Yet, if you enter the woods Of a summer evening late, When the night-air cools on the trout-ringed pools Where the otter whistles his mate, (They fear not men in the woods, Because they see so few.) You will hear the beat of a horse's feet, And the swish of a skirt in the dew, Steadily cantering through The misty solitudes, As though they perfectly knew The old lost road through the woods ... But there is no road through the woods.
Comments
Is this some new sexual perversion known only to politicos, Hyufd?
“Ms Elphicke has got to decide whether she is committed to the programme and principles of the Labour Party,” he added.'
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/natalie-elphicke-defects-labour-second-tory-fortnight-3045993
I remember speaking to a friend who was surprised I wasn't supporting him in 2015 and the words "piss, fire, and wouldn't" left my mouth.
But yeah. I think you're right to have zero patience with the factional element - which could be tedious from the right of Labour even when was nominally on the same side.
There are, however, some of us who knew dear Jeremy's views about Jews and NATO before 2015 and were very much going "Oh no, not this bloody guy, you went for him? You do know who he is?".
I believe Taylor Parkes, probably even to the left of me wrote rather a good piece in the Quietus about knowing the issues that later became salient having actually known who he was rather than thinking was a generic cuddly socialist grandpa.
https://thequietus.com/articles/18714-jeremy-corbyn-labour-election-rally-policies
Anyway, that about sums it up for me. Someone who is naturally inclined towards the left, even the Labour left when it's on the right subjects, but had his Kronstadt with a lot of the mad and bad 'Stop the West' stuff and what it leads to long before Jeremy, without becoming a 'Blairite'.
(Also, a bit more charitably, she might actually have useful stuff to say about housing, and Labour are the only party likely to have any power over that in the near future. Reform, on the other hand, really is just a pulpit for shouting crossly at the clouds.)
https://x.com/zlatti_71/status/1788275952478236835
“79 years ago the United States and our Ukrainian allies joined forces to combat the oppressive regimes of Hitler and Stalin.”
Rachael Wearmouth reports Labour MPs telling her 'it has pissed everybody off' 'much wider than the left or Women's PLP' 'It has backfired spectacularly'
8 hours in. Dumb old Keir.
He'll have to hide her now. He gets a half day of headlines and has pissed off his own Party.
📈16pt Labour lead
🌹Lab 43 (-1)
🌳Con 27 (+1)
🔶LD 11 (+1)
➡️Reform 9 (-1)
🌍Green 4 (+1)
🎗️SNP 3 (=)
⬜️Other 4 (=)
2,267 UK adults, 3-5 May
(chg 26-28 April)
Still little change but another slight Reform decline
Was trying to put Labour rampers like Anabob in their place at pace on iPhone whilst in car, and it had my email on it 🤦♀️
For some perspective, If so many voters who vote Conservative most their lives are changing the party right now, why should it be seen so crazy for the odd MP?
Starmer should have said no? She’s standing down at the 4th July election, I didn’t realise she was, and she’s happy to call Sunak’s stop the boats plan as not working, so why should Starmer have said no?
Elphick started as campaigner in housing, probably more comfortable with Labours housing proposals than the years of Tory housing failures, so her position are a bit more nuanced I suppose than just screaming right winger.
https://twitter.com/PeterHotez/status/1788199442765459877?t=IOyW4LtNuck8ZY3Lvtrf4Q&s=19
Its a mistake. It will cleave off a few more lab to green waverers and annoy the non plutocratic donors. The problem with triangulation is its all tactics and soon you no longer know where you stand.
Ok dear.
It was a silly stunt from Labour, but all the lefties coming out of the woodwork and wringing their hands just reminds us that those of the left can't bear sacrificing ideological purity for power. They'd take the loss every time.
For the worm.
looking at those figures I see Labour on 48% and the Tories hitting 27% if election day has unexpectedly good weather for the early winter
Maybe this is Starmer's Humza moment.
Reform will do well to get 3% of a General Election, even all those votes are knowingly thrown away achieving nothing. Last week showed Reform to be a busted flush. 2 councillors and less votes than UKIP in Blackpool. Campaigners against bollards and bridge closures had a better local election day than Reform.
Some people, some voters, are so consumed with dislike of Sunak that they will do anything. Even back Starmer.
If that's correct, then it's analogous with 'traditional' programming, with algorithms defined by specifications (in this case, defined by clinicians).
Whereas ML/AI would work rather differently.
People say, "How can you make these promises to Tory voters?", I say, "because they're total crap."
1. Has nothing been offered in return at the expense of someone else, in terms of parliamentary candidacies or the House of Lords for example?
2. Does accepting the defection enhance the chances of other Labour candidates of winning seats at the general election?
If the answer to both is Yes, then it is pretty hard not to accept the defection especially with the general election looming. I think it is Yes in Elphick's case, though others might disagree.
I am not sure that Yes would be the answer in respect of all Tory MPs though.
I remember resigning my Labour membership for a few years in the early days of Brown's premiership. It was when Digby Jones was made a minister and got a life peerage for his troubles. He was very clearly a closet Tory then, as events subsequently showed, even though he remained notionally a crossbencher. What got me was the fact that someone who wasn't even required to take the Labour whip was being offered ministerial influence over government policy, an appointment from the CBI being judged more worthy than that of a backbench trade unionist.
As welcome as a fart before sex
Omfg, normal showers will never be good enough again. This shower was seven showers in one. There was a really good normal, overhead shower, and then three smaller showers spraying powerfully from each side at roughly knee, waist and chest height
I normally spend five minutes in the shower. Today it must have been fifteen. It did feel quite like a massage as I slowly turned around and around
Even though I ended up setting off late, I was still expecting to easily reach Roncesvalles, the usual first day target for the Camino. The place was fully booked, so I took the nice looking room 5km closer, in Espinal
I was a bit disappointed then that I was only doing a short, 34km walk today. But thank god. I don't think I could have made it to Roncesvalles, I forgot about the climbing today, and didn't get to Espinal until after 8pm
I've just had a big steak, little sweet red peppers and chips for dinner. When I've finished my glass of wine, I'm heading for bed
This was my approach to Espinal
> Henry Stimson as Secretary of War; formerly War Sec. for Wm Howard Taft & Sec. of State for Herbert Hoover; and
> Frank Knox as Secretary of the Navy; Chicago newspaper publisher and 1936 Republican candidate for Vice President.
Motive for both was the same: they strongly supported FDR's foreign policy of maximum aid to UK short of US entering WW2.
I reckon there’s 5% or so to go from Ref to Con. Still leaves the blocs at roughly 60:35
Start with I reverse your question. Are Lab and Lib Dem votes in Blue Wall in 2024 tribal or a reaction to the same Boris Brexit as motivates voters in the redwall in 2019?
The 2024 General Election is a Brexit Election. This is why Tories will get at least 33% of Boris 43% at subsequent General Election.
The commentariat conclusion on 6th July, two days after the election, and bourn out by the response to the exit poll, is Brexit is still alive and strong in UK politics, not melted away in the last 5 years.
Tory tribalism + Brexit still not unwound moves the Ref back to Con on voting day.
I’ll go further. Are we expecting Brexit to ever unwind in UK politics? Voters changed their votes and allegiance of their lives over it, why are we expecting it to unwind back to pre Brexit business as usual? Maybe we shouldn’t. Red Wall throwing Labour out of power, Blue Wall throwing Tories out of power, might be the new normal in British politics.
33% might be on low side of what Conservatives are capable of at the coming General Election.
(Unless Braverman is the Leader of the Opposition. In which case, the answer is 'not at all.')
Seems (to my uneducated mind) a bit of a win for a relatively small outgoing relative to the cost of GP time and/or missed symptoms due to overwork.
If you wanted to take it a tiny bit further - an LLM which had your medical records which asked you a few triage questions first. Not even attempt to diagnose - just 'maybe ask about X', 'check about family history of Y'.
Two grand or so if buying one private high-function LLM per practice.
UKIP were quite clearly in voters minds a pressure group FOR something, which 52% of the electorate supported, which explained the votes they got in all kinds of elections.
What are reform for in the minds of voters? They are mere wind, standing on a manifesto of Unicorns.
You don’t realise you are comparing substance v nothing, when you claim nothing pulls in the equivalent votes as substance.
https://youtu.be/kv9S50nFo2A?si=OJmJmY6RuTb9hLyU
I don’t know what’s funnier the fact that she doesn’t know Boris resigned or that she’s not standing next to no 10
https://x.com/paridaze/status/1788199101814698480?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
With his other families living at nos. 1-99.
Met such embodied force, as named with these
Could merit more than that small infantry
Warred on by cranes, though all the giant brood
Of Phlegra with the heroic race were joined
That fought at Thebes and Ilium, on each side
Mixed with auxiliar gods; and what resounds
In fable or romance of Uther's son
Begirt with British and Armoric knights ;
And all who since, baptized or infidel,
Jousted in Aspramont, or Montalban,
Damasco, or Morocco, or Trebisond,
Or whom Biserta sent from Afric shore,
When Charlemain with all his peerage fell
By Fontarabia.
My point being, Charlemagne with all his peerage fell at Roncesvalles, and Milton knew that perfectly well. Just imagine being so good at poetry that you can afford to pass over a name as magical as Roncesvalles for metrical reasons.
Rishi at the podium in Downing St next Monday morning, at 1037, so it’s time for elevenses with re-election team after 15 minutes explaining how the plan is working, and it’s the only plan around. Once called, watch Labours lead squeezed, a la 2017.
I’ll be here, on PB, basking in having called it. 4th July. Everyone will be on my working assumption from then. I will own this place.
I have learnt from TSE how to be magnanimous in such situations.
Not a great deal about Elphicke's.
What has gone on there? What's her angle?
Battle of Roncevaux 778, most memorable date ever Christmas day 800 when Charles gets crowned HRE by the Pope, so we know he got through.
Apart from one larger sample poll for The Sun at the end of March, Savanta has consistently polled 8-11% for Reform and apart from a couple of polls (one of those the aforementioned large sample poll for The Sun) has had the Conservatives between 25 and 27% - in other words, this poll is nothing new or significant, it's well within the normal polling range for Savanta.
I'd be more impressed if one of the pollsters such as Redfield & Wilton who show Reform at 12-14% showed them at 9%. Until we see significant movement from a pollster like that, I'll remain unconvinced there is either any significant weakening in Reform's support or a significant move forward in support for the Conservatives who remain becalmed in the mid to upper 20s.
The entire Korean War was 36,000 USA servicemen killed.
It's a third world country with more money.
The YouGov issues tracker (pick up to three most important issues facing the UK) had Brexit at 63% and 65% in the polls either side of 12th December 2019, it's 14% now.
Which party is best at handling Brexit? On 1st December 2019 it was Conservatives 31%, Liberal Democrats 15%, Labour 13%, UKIP 5%, Other 5%, Don't Know 18%, None of them 13%. Now it's Labour 19%, Conservative 15%, Liberal Democrats 9%, Other 11%, Don't Know 27%, None of them 19%.
Brexit as an important issue has gone from number one issue by a large margin on 1st December 2019 to 8th on a 16 topic list on 6th May's poll. You might say that could be remainers now settling down to the reality that there's no quick reversal of Brexit on the horizon but the subsets (with the normal polling health warnings about reading too much into subsets) don't support that.
Subsets thinking that Brexit is one of the (max three) important issues facing the UK.
Conservative voters: Down from 76% to 8%.
North of England voters: Down from 63% to 16%
Leave voters: Down from 71% to 8%
65+ voters: Down from 68% to 15%
That's not to say that the concerns of leave and remain have been homogenised. Current top five of Leave voters are Immigration & Asylum, Economy, Health, Crime and Defence & Security. The current top five of Remain voters are Health, Economy, Environment, Housing and Brexit. But overall it looks like 2024/25 will be a regular general election where the economy takes priority with the NHS being a close second.
The evidence is that it's gone from a highly salient issue where the Tories had a big lead to a more minor issue where the Tories have no lead.
I did a humble 16km today, but it was immensely gratifying. Saw three roe deer (an ancient Italian subspecies here in the gargano) and loads of orchids. Had wild boar for supper with primitivo. Walked into quite a noomy hamlet - with a weird bell tower
Why the hint of noom? It was all built in the 1930s. So it’s fascist (worship of nature?). I suspect something happened here - also fascism plus ancient pagan forest with primordial trees plus eerie early Christian shrines plus Neolithic remnants =
noom
And there is something intensely satisfying about WALKING a long way from your last bed to your next bed, in a different settlement. Nomadic. Also I sorted the boredom problem - audiobooks
The Tories will win a much larger voteshare than 33%. They have hardly started yet on showing films of policemen chucking immigrants into the backs of vans on the way to deportation. What little they did for the local elections must have gone down like free beer and sex in the focus groups. Much more effective than saying let's have an Australian-style points system. More visceral.
Also a lot more resources will go into dirty tricks than would pay for a Susan Hall rumour-type job.
It's highly unlikely they'll go for Jan 2025 but that's a different issue.
Proof that I don't understand other people at all is the fact that most people have seemingly decided that they prefer to communicate with each other via text messages of one kind or another, rather than hearing each others voices on the phone, as in a traditional phone call. It's so much more friendly to hear a voice than read a message, yet that's what people have decided they prefer. Totally bizarre.
They shut the road through the woods
Seventy years ago.
Weather and rain have undone it again,
And now you would never know
There was once a road through the woods
Before they planted the trees.
It is underneath the coppice and heath
And the thin anemones.
Only the keeper sees
That, where the ring-dove broods,
And the badgers roll at ease,
There was once a road through the woods.
Yet, if you enter the woods
Of a summer evening late,
When the night-air cools on the trout-ringed pools
Where the otter whistles his mate,
(They fear not men in the woods,
Because they see so few.)
You will hear the beat of a horse's feet,
And the swish of a skirt in the dew,
Steadily cantering through
The misty solitudes,
As though they perfectly knew
The old lost road through the woods ...
But there is no road through the woods.