Another reason why immigration needs, in essence, to end
I found this extraordinarily bleak account on Conservative Home, giving one reason why so many councils are going bust
"The Children’s Social Care system is in many cities and larger towns collapsing, in large part as a disastrous consequence of the broken Immigration system...
"I was recently stunned to the point of initial disbelief during a conversation with a friend during which he mentioned that a child placed in residential care costs the average local council roughly £5,500 per week and rapidly rising. I was equally taken aback when he stated that in large cities, anywhere between 40 per cent and 60 per cent (and rising) of the children being placed in these expensive placements are children whose mothers are immigrants."
"Bradford Council reports that its average current cost per child residential placement, is at the time of writing £6,498 per week, £337,896 per year, which dwarfs the £4,258 per month, £51,100 per year cost of housing adult immigrants in nice hotels etc. The immigrant child in care is costing more than six adult immigrants in a hotel and the public don’t even know about the scale of it.
"Sadly, the number of immigrant children in care is rising at shocking rates in major cities throughout the country. Using Bradford Council as an example again, in the 2017-18 Municipal Year, there were 42 children in external care placements, but this had risen to 214 by the end of 2023 at a combined cost at least £65 million to £75 million over the period.
"With each increase of three children in care placements coming in at a cool £1 million per year, dozens of councils will become effectively bankrupt in a couple of years or so unless there is an urgent, serious intervention."
The Tories thought it was a wizard idea to import 1.4m people in 2 years. Labour thought it would be amusing to "rub the noses of the right in diversity"
And here we are
We’re fucked as a nation. Not just because of this.
Productivity is low and the productive side of the economy is going to be milked more and more to fund the non productive side while suffering poorer terms and conditions and pensions.
Labour is the party of the public sector so expect the productivity gap to widen. We a already have ONS staff threatening storied action for having to spend some time in the office.
We REALLY need that AI revolution. Indeed, the world needs it
We need a British ai. For countless reasons. Create one, and ensure that all public bodies end any work with Chatgpt and others and work with the new one. Every tech-company and their wife seems to have an ai candidate; it can't be that difficult.
British AI Inc. has already been flogged off to the yanks. Or in more sober terms, Google bought DeepMind. We need to find a way of protecting British assets whilst also funding and nurturing them.
Sure. And now that's gone. So a new one must come forward. And Government contracts must be contingent upon the output that the ai provides continuing to be UK-optimised. It makes sense to me to have that be British-owned and operated, but that's less important. If Google wants to make the necessary service available, so be it. This would do more for preserving our culture and identity than any number of 'Academies Britannique', and there would be money to be made doing it. It should be a priority of DCMS and the Business Department.
You're talking about training it on only UK-sourced data?
If so, I'm not sure that there'd be enough data available - there's no UK equivalent of Reddit or Google to use, so you'd be reduced to feeding it Friends Reunited from 20 years ago and the Daily Mail comments section!
Maybe you could restrict the RLHF in some way, or do some other form of alignment to make it UK-specific, but I'm not sure I see what the point of that would be.
Khan's price moving in quite quickly now (edit: and so is Street's) with non-trivial amounts staked - and by now there will be a lot of reports from the counts. I think he'll (they'll) be OK.
If I had to guess I'd say this is based on Keir Starmer's statement that he expects Sadiq Khan to win, and because nothing else has happened in the last hour or so, punters have reacted to it. Not logical because you'd expect Starmer to say it.
Khan's price moving in quite quickly now (edit: and so is Street's) with non-trivial amounts staked - and by now there will be a lot of reports from the counts. I think he'll (they'll) be OK.
1.07 Sadiq so punters are still not sure. The market is not even back to where it was before the Hall hype.
It's not going to either. She should never have been as far out as she was. However, this close the the declaration, the direction of travel strongly indicates the destination.
Khan's price moving in quite quickly now (edit: and so is Street's) with non-trivial amounts staked - and by now there will be a lot of reports from the counts. I think he'll (they'll) be OK.
If I had to guess I'd say this is based on Keir Starmer's statement that he expects Sadiq Khan to win, and because nothing else has happened in the last hour or so, punters have reacted to it.
It was coming in even before Starmer's statement though. Has been all morning. Sky reported earlier this morning that senior Labour and Tory "sources" expected Khan to win. Starmer just built on that. Anyway anyone who's put the words "expectation" and "management" together in the same sentence knows that he wouldn't have said it if he were not reasonably confident.
It would be surprising if she doesn't come back in to around 5 or 6 at some point today as the rumours swirl around.
Yes, I think so.
The speed at which London is counting is deeply frustrating.
It's more that we're not even getting the ward-level data as they go along this time round, so have no visibility of what's going on until each constituency declares.
The next government really need to move it back to electronic counting.
I am quite sure that Hall has not won, but it looks as if Yougov were out by a substantial margin.
London is interesting, in that despite shifting to the left, and huge demographic shifts since 1992, there does seem to be fairly consistent Conservative vote of 30% or so, give or take. The nature of that vote has varied over that period, even as the overall figure remains consistent. In some places, like Hornsey, Ilford, Streatham, Dulwich, that vote has largely disappeared. In others, it's held very firm, even increased, such as Hillingdon, Bexley (once a marginal council), Bromley (once an area of big Lib Dem strength). In others, it's fallen away rapidly and has then recovered (such as Harrow), as Indian voters switch to the Conservatives in a big way.
I think it makes sense to view London not so much as one city with a single identity, but more as a city that has grown outward, plus a group of towns and villages, each with their own identity, that have grown into each other.
What a master stroke from Kevin Spacey to defend himself against further accusations of being a creepy groper by doing an interview with Dan Wootton. Genius!
Mutually beneficial, given that work opportunities have rather dried up for both of them.
I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.
Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.
Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.
The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.
Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"
He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.
Indeed they might. Unexpected by pollheads anyway.
What's happening in the universities is important, and yes, spring is the time for it. This is why I think there might be an early general election, before the universities break up or not long after.
There's a parallelogram of forces as usual. I think the Tories want to whip up trouble on the campuses so they can win votes by encouraging Islamophobia and racism off the back of it. They would love to say that pro-Palestinian protestors (show non-white faces in the footage) have stopped your children from getting their degrees, because they're unBritishly angry (show scuffles with the police) about some faraway place with a "Z" in its name that ordinary hardworking Brits aren't interested in. (Show sobbing 21-year-old: "I worked so hard for my degree and had a firm offer of employment, but I don't know what I'm going to do now". Cut to newsreaders and experts competing for the prize for having used the word "Hamas" the most times.).
And here's a flowerpot at Essex University that had a Palestinian flag stuck in it, and it's only three miles from a synagogue - cue BBC newsreader screwing her face up in disgust - and here's someone from the Community Security Trust: "We've logged a 17000% increase in anti-Semitic incidents since the self-defensive entry into Gaza and the beginning of the humanitarian evacuation of civilians to Cyprus. Incidents like the flowerpot carry a terrorist pro-Hamas message, causing many Jews in England to be afraid to leave their homes. References to 'BDS' and 'ICJ' are coded apologies for terrorism. They are no different from saying '1488' or '109'."
I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.
Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.
Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.
The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.
Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"
He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.
His biggest political mistake so far I think. He tried to pick the safe course and failed. I know one lady who's planning to abstain (she lives in marginal seat) as a result.
Personally I think she'll regret it - she hates the Tories and will be gutted if they get in again and can't really expect a Starmer condemnation to actually help anyone in Gaza... but it's her vote not mine...
From the point of winning, a vote won from the Tories, is the equivalent of two lost to the Left.
Why actually, should Starmer worry that much about alienating left wing voters about Gaza?
Peston: "They'll be a bit of anxiety [today] around the West Midlands result... Andy Street may therefore again win, partly because of his personal popularity... and partly because Muslim voters may not be turning out for Labour the way they should"
I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.
Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.
Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.
The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.
Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"
He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.
His biggest political mistake so far I think. He tried to pick the safe course and failed. I know one lady who's planning to abstain (she lives in marginal seat) as a result.
Personally I think she'll regret it - she hates the Tories and will be gutted if they get in again and can't really expect a Starmer condemnation to actually help anyone in Gaza... but it's her vote not mine...
Yes, we have lost votes and seats to Hamas candidates in various towns and cities, including in my patch on Bradford Council. But we've been gaining votes and seats from the Tories where it matters.
Another reason why immigration needs, in essence, to end
I found this extraordinarily bleak account on Conservative Home, giving one reason why so many councils are going bust
"The Children’s Social Care system is in many cities and larger towns collapsing, in large part as a disastrous consequence of the broken Immigration system...
"I was recently stunned to the point of initial disbelief during a conversation with a friend during which he mentioned that a child placed in residential care costs the average local council roughly £5,500 per week and rapidly rising. I was equally taken aback when he stated that in large cities, anywhere between 40 per cent and 60 per cent (and rising) of the children being placed in these expensive placements are children whose mothers are immigrants."
"Bradford Council reports that its average current cost per child residential placement, is at the time of writing £6,498 per week, £337,896 per year, which dwarfs the £4,258 per month, £51,100 per year cost of housing adult immigrants in nice hotels etc. The immigrant child in care is costing more than six adult immigrants in a hotel and the public don’t even know about the scale of it.
"Sadly, the number of immigrant children in care is rising at shocking rates in major cities throughout the country. Using Bradford Council as an example again, in the 2017-18 Municipal Year, there were 42 children in external care placements, but this had risen to 214 by the end of 2023 at a combined cost at least £65 million to £75 million over the period.
"With each increase of three children in care placements coming in at a cool £1 million per year, dozens of councils will become effectively bankrupt in a couple of years or so unless there is an urgent, serious intervention."
The Tories thought it was a wizard idea to import 1.4m people in 2 years. Labour thought it would be amusing to "rub the noses of the right in diversity"
And here we are
We’re fucked as a nation. Not just because of this.
Productivity is low and the productive side of the economy is going to be milked more and more to fund the non productive side while suffering poorer terms and conditions and pensions.
Labour is the party of the public sector so expect the productivity gap to widen. We a already have ONS staff threatening storied action for having to spend some time in the office.
We REALLY need that AI revolution. Indeed, the world needs it
We need a British ai. For countless reasons. Create one, and ensure that all public bodies end any work with Chatgpt and others and work with the new one. Every tech-company and their wife seems to have an ai candidate; it can't be that difficult.
British AI Inc. has already been flogged off to the yanks. Or in more sober terms, Google bought DeepMind. We need to find a way of protecting British assets whilst also funding and nurturing them.
Sure. And now that's gone. So a new one must come forward. And Government contracts must be contingent upon the output that the ai provides continuing to be UK-optimised. It makes sense to me to have that be British-owned and operated, but that's less important. If Google wants to make the necessary service available, so be it. This would do more for preserving our culture and identity than any number of 'Academies Britannique', and there would be money to be made doing it. It should be a priority of DCMS and the Business Department.
You're talking about training it on only UK-sourced data?
If so, I'm not sure that there'd be enough data available - there's no UK equivalent of Reddit or Google to use, so you'd be reduced to feeding it Friends Reunited from 20 years ago and the Daily Mail comments section!
Maybe you could restrict the RLHF in some way, or do some other form of alignment to make it UK-specific, but I'm not sure I see what the point of that would be.
Totally this. Essentially AI is a data aggregation technique. The data is more fundamental than the technique. It's like saying an accounting system is more important than the transaction data that feeds into it.
I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.
Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.
Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.
The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.
Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"
He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.
His biggest political mistake so far I think. He tried to pick the safe course and failed. I know one lady who's planning to abstain (she lives in marginal seat) as a result.
Personally I think she'll regret it - she hates the Tories and will be gutted if they get in again and can't really expect a Starmer condemnation to actually help anyone in Gaza... but it's her vote not mine...
Yes, we have lost votes and seats to Hamas candidates in various towns and cities, including in my patch on Bradford Council. But we've been gaining votes and seats from the Tories where it matters.
The right strategy with the right result.
Wait, what?
Are there actually "Hamas candidates", or people who openly support them?
I presumed it was amusing hyperbole, but these days, who knows
I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.
Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.
Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.
The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.
Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"
He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.
His biggest political mistake so far I think. He tried to pick the safe course and failed. I know one lady who's planning to abstain (she lives in marginal seat) as a result.
Personally I think she'll regret it - she hates the Tories and will be gutted if they get in again and can't really expect a Starmer condemnation to actually help anyone in Gaza... but it's her vote not mine...
Yes, we have lost votes and seats to Hamas candidates in various towns and cities, including in my patch on Bradford Council. But we've been gaining votes and seats from the Tories where it matters.
The right strategy with the right result.
So Muslim voters who deserted Labour are Hamas supporters? Looking forward to some dickhead Lab SPAD tweeting something to that effect.
Peston: "They'll be a bit of anxiety [today] around the West Midlands result... Andy Street may therefore again win, partly because of his personal popularity... and partly because Muslim voters may not be turning out for Labour the way they should"
The things that continue to flabbergast me about the Susan Hall selection / candidacy are:
1 - That she has such a unique combination of arrogance and ignorance. 2 - That for a London Assembly member of some years' standing, she seems to have no idea of the powers of the London Mayor or where the boundary of London is actually set. * 3 - That the Conservatives should have such a death wish. TBF they also stood Caroline Henry as PCC in Notts, where that one has been a laughing stock since 2021. 4 = The conspiracy theories ! The conspiracy theories !
* I've noted before her desire to build things by some sort of Diktat in Royal Parks, and do things where the powers belong to the Boroughs. Even this week I've seen her blaming Sadiq Khan for a fire in Essex.
My overall take on the results is that they are very good for Labour, and very bad for the Conservatives, but not as bad as those of the 1993-96 period, overall. The Conservatives are a lot less weak in urban England than they were, going into the 1997 GE. Rural England is harder to call, simply due to the vast number of Residents/independents, but some at least of that vote will go Conservative at national level.
It looks quite poor for Labour to win a NEV of 33/34%, but again, account must be taken of the very big vote now going to minor parties/residents/independents. It may be that we simply won't see any party will a NEV of 40%+ in the future.
Peston: "They'll be a bit of anxiety [today] around the West Midlands result... Andy Street may therefore again win, partly because of his personal popularity... and partly because Muslim voters may not be turning out for Labour the way they should"
Dickhead. Labour do not own the Muslim vote
However, in some places Labour have been owned by the Muslim vote.
I've seen it in a candidate selection meeting that was a total stitch up.
I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.
Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.
Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.
The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.
Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"
He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.
His biggest political mistake so far I think. He tried to pick the safe course and failed. I know one lady who's planning to abstain (she lives in marginal seat) as a result.
Personally I think she'll regret it - she hates the Tories and will be gutted if they get in again and can't really expect a Starmer condemnation to actually help anyone in Gaza... but it's her vote not mine...
From the point of winning, a vote won from the Tories, is the equivalent of two lost to the Left.
Why actually, should Starmer worry that much about alienating left wing voters about Gaza?
I sort of get this but this isn't much different to George Osborne's attitude to UKIP voters pre 2015. It's better to engage positively and keep making the argument.
Because otherwise, eventually, it can come back to haunt you.
I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.
Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.
Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.
The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.
Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"
He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.
His biggest political mistake so far I think. He tried to pick the safe course and failed. I know one lady who's planning to abstain (she lives in marginal seat) as a result.
Personally I think she'll regret it - she hates the Tories and will be gutted if they get in again and can't really expect a Starmer condemnation to actually help anyone in Gaza... but it's her vote not mine...
Yes, we have lost votes and seats to Hamas candidates in various towns and cities, including in my patch on Bradford Council. But we've been gaining votes and seats from the Tories where it matters.
The right strategy with the right result.
So Muslim voters who deserted Labour are Hamas supporters? Looking forward to some dickhead Lab SPAD tweeting something to that effect.
You stalk Labour SPAD twitter feeds? Despite not knowing them from Adam. Wow! Creepy!
Peston: "They'll be a bit of anxiety [today] around the West Midlands result... Andy Street may therefore again win, partly because of his personal popularity... and partly because Muslim voters may not be turning out for Labour the way they should"
Dickhead. Labour do not own the Muslim vote
Wow. That is a terrible tweet.
Not a tweet, he said it on TV, I copied from a Saul Staniforth tweet linking to the clip
Is the PB herd wheeling around and preparing to stampede in a different direction?
I think Khan will win in London. But London is being bigged up across the country in a ramp-up of Islamophobia, xenophobia, and racism. Many who live in London are unaware of what London connotes for many people who don't. This is practically an open goal for the rightwing.
As someone who lives in London, the issue isn't all perception. Crime is just ridiculous there days - in the past 16 months the church by my corner shop had a drive by shooting, I then moved and have been mugged, missed an acid attack by 5 minutes, been broken into, and my housemate had a death threat/hate crime attack against him. My experience isn't massively unrepresentative (bar the drive by shooting). Most people don't report a lot of minor crimes (bike theft/phone snatching) etc anymore. Outside of that homophobia is clearly increasing as an issue due to high rates of immigration from backwards places leading to semi-regular attacks on LGBTQ venues, and every Saturday blatant anti-semitism shuts down central London. Bar that London is great.
Worse to come as they pack in more and more.
And yet 86% of PB-ers refuse to accept it, or even talk about it, and those that do talk about it get called "racist" for their pains
We are governed by a caste of virtue-signalling eunuchs who wish us evil. It is hard to conclude anything else
The man has about 20 serious convictions including "assaulting a motorist with a hammer" and the judge says "I am glad you have leave to remain, as an asylum seeker"
Peston: "They'll be a bit of anxiety [today] around the West Midlands result... Andy Street may therefore again win, partly because of his personal popularity... and partly because Muslim voters may not be turning out for Labour the way they should"
Dickhead. Labour do not own the Muslim vote
Wow. That is a terrible tweet.
Prof Peston makes (yet another) terrible tweet / statement...surely not....if there is any evidence that top of media is a closed shop of absolute numpties, he is exhibit #1.
I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.
Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.
Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.
The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.
Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"
He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.
His biggest political mistake so far I think. He tried to pick the safe course and failed. I know one lady who's planning to abstain (she lives in marginal seat) as a result.
Personally I think she'll regret it - she hates the Tories and will be gutted if they get in again and can't really expect a Starmer condemnation to actually help anyone in Gaza... but it's her vote not mine...
Yes, we have lost votes and seats to Hamas candidates in various towns and cities, including in my patch on Bradford Council. But we've been gaining votes and seats from the Tories where it matters.
The right strategy with the right result.
Wait, what?
Are there actually "Hamas candidates", or people who openly support them?
I presumed it was amusing hyperbole, but these days, who knows
Just my shorthand.
Just lots of independents who happen to have been elected in Muslim areas.
I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.
Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.
Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.
The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.
Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"
He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.
His biggest political mistake so far I think. He tried to pick the safe course and failed. I know one lady who's planning to abstain (she lives in marginal seat) as a result.
Personally I think she'll regret it - she hates the Tories and will be gutted if they get in again and can't really expect a Starmer condemnation to actually help anyone in Gaza... but it's her vote not mine...
Yes, we have lost votes and seats to Hamas candidates in various towns and cities, including in my patch on Bradford Council. But we've been gaining votes and seats from the Tories where it matters.
The right strategy with the right result.
So Muslim voters who deserted Labour are Hamas supporters? Looking forward to some dickhead Lab SPAD tweeting something to that effect.
Hamas apologists, certainly.
I don't hear many demands for the hostages to be released.
My overall take on the results is that they are very good for Labour, and very bad for the Conservatives, but not as bad as those of the 1993-96 period, overall. The Conservatives are a lot less weak in urban England than they were, going into the 1997 GE. Rural England is harder to call, simply due to the vast number of Residents/independents, but some at least of that vote will go Conservative at national level.
It looks quite poor for Labour to win a NEV of 33/34%, but again, account must be taken of the very big vote now going to minor parties/residents/independents. It may be that we simply won't see any party will a NEV of 40%+ in the future.
The results are not as bad for the Tories as the 1968 results were for Labour!
Another reason why immigration needs, in essence, to end
I found this extraordinarily bleak account on Conservative Home, giving one reason why so many councils are going bust
"The Children’s Social Care system is in many cities and larger towns collapsing, in large part as a disastrous consequence of the broken Immigration system...
"I was recently stunned to the point of initial disbelief during a conversation with a friend during which he mentioned that a child placed in residential care costs the average local council roughly £5,500 per week and rapidly rising. I was equally taken aback when he stated that in large cities, anywhere between 40 per cent and 60 per cent (and rising) of the children being placed in these expensive placements are children whose mothers are immigrants."
"Bradford Council reports that its average current cost per child residential placement, is at the time of writing £6,498 per week, £337,896 per year, which dwarfs the £4,258 per month, £51,100 per year cost of housing adult immigrants in nice hotels etc. The immigrant child in care is costing more than six adult immigrants in a hotel and the public don’t even know about the scale of it.
"Sadly, the number of immigrant children in care is rising at shocking rates in major cities throughout the country. Using Bradford Council as an example again, in the 2017-18 Municipal Year, there were 42 children in external care placements, but this had risen to 214 by the end of 2023 at a combined cost at least £65 million to £75 million over the period.
"With each increase of three children in care placements coming in at a cool £1 million per year, dozens of councils will become effectively bankrupt in a couple of years or so unless there is an urgent, serious intervention."
The Tories thought it was a wizard idea to import 1.4m people in 2 years. Labour thought it would be amusing to "rub the noses of the right in diversity"
And here we are
We’re fucked as a nation. Not just because of this.
Productivity is low and the productive side of the economy is going to be milked more and more to fund the non productive side while suffering poorer terms and conditions and pensions.
Labour is the party of the public sector so expect the productivity gap to widen. We a already have ONS staff threatening storied action for having to spend some time in the office.
We REALLY need that AI revolution. Indeed, the world needs it
We need a British ai. For countless reasons. Create one, and ensure that all public bodies end any work with Chatgpt and others and work with the new one. Every tech-company and their wife seems to have an ai candidate; it can't be that difficult.
British AI Inc. has already been flogged off to the yanks. Or in more sober terms, Google bought DeepMind. We need to find a way of protecting British assets whilst also funding and nurturing them.
Sure. And now that's gone. So a new one must come forward. And Government contracts must be contingent upon the output that the ai provides continuing to be UK-optimised. It makes sense to me to have that be British-owned and operated, but that's less important. If Google wants to make the necessary service available, so be it. This would do more for preserving our culture and identity than any number of 'Academies Britannique', and there would be money to be made doing it. It should be a priority of DCMS and the Business Department.
You're talking about training it on only UK-sourced data?
If so, I'm not sure that there'd be enough data available - there's no UK equivalent of Reddit or Google to use, so you'd be reduced to feeding it Friends Reunited from 20 years ago and the Daily Mail comments section!
Maybe you could restrict the RLHF in some way, or do some other form of alignment to make it UK-specific, but I'm not sure I see what the point of that would be.
No, but other ai services aren't trained exclusively on US data sources. There's also plenty of UK data to draw upon, how about all BBC broadcasts ever, UK scholarly journals going back to the 18th century, the civil service including the NHS, Hansard, Wisden, Encyclopedia Britannica, Punch, The Spectator, the Guardian, Who's Who. We have possibly more English language data than any other country. As for not seeing the point of alignment, what is the point in US ai services being so strictly tied to US conventions around spelling and meanings that they cannot translate text into UK spellings and meanings even when repeatedly prompted to do so? The point is the survival and thriving of British culture in the modern age.
Sunak: "The choice at the next election is clear – only the Conservatives have a plan" - Telegraph article by the man himself.
The same utterly deluded drivel.
"A plan versus no plan, bold principled action versus U-turns and prevarication, a clear record of delivery..." etc etc.
The Telegraph actually reported the results as 'better than expected.' We'll pass quietly over the thought of what 'worse than' might have looked like and gently point out that the antipathy of the electorate is likely to be rather less towards councils than central government. The punishment the Tories received yesterday is therefore likely to be somewhat lighter than what appears to be coming next.
Electoral Calculus is predicting 85 seats. It could be right.
I've always maintained that the polling will narrow quite a bit once people really focus on the choice being Starmer's Labour or Tories.
But I am seriously beginning to wonder whether this really is one of Callaghan's "Seachange" elections.
Starmer's huge issue is going to be getting the vote out I think. Blair he 'aint. A lot of apathy out there. One of the things that seems to be forgotten about '97 GE was the ground war. The people that Labour and the unions had mobilised to knock on doors and leaflet was astonishing is certainly my memory.
I think we may get odd variations, depending on past performance. In areas where people are accustomed to voting Labour and have a local authority with the usual mixed record, I doubt if we'll see high Labour turnout (cf. Oxford this week, and maybe London). In areas where a big Tory majority is under threat for the first time, I expect a lot of enthusiasm. So you can get huge swings in Tory seats (cf. Blackpool South) and meh results elsewhere. Which should, in principle, make the vote more efficient.
I think variation within the red wall may be interesting. I'd posit my area - North Derbys vs North Notts - as potentially interesting.
I've also been impressed by the scale of the Green Vote, and I wonder whether there are potential vote-split questions on both left and right. I think that tactical voting will be more sophisticated on the left (Galloway and stone age socialists perhaps excepted), so I would see that as an issue for the left mostly where Greens or LDs have a realistic prospect of 1st or 2nd.
I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.
Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.
Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.
The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.
Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"
He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.
His biggest political mistake so far I think. He tried to pick the safe course and failed. I know one lady who's planning to abstain (she lives in marginal seat) as a result.
Personally I think she'll regret it - she hates the Tories and will be gutted if they get in again and can't really expect a Starmer condemnation to actually help anyone in Gaza... but it's her vote not mine...
Yes, we have lost votes and seats to Hamas candidates in various towns and cities, including in my patch on Bradford Council. But we've been gaining votes and seats from the Tories where it matters.
The right strategy with the right result.
So Muslim voters who deserted Labour are Hamas supporters? Looking forward to some dickhead Lab SPAD tweeting something to that effect.
Hamas apologists, certainly.
I don't hear many demands for the hostages to be released.
Yes, the one thing that more than anything else would end the war, but I've never seen the protesters call for that.
In 2021, we had a load of Tweets etc. from the Shaun Bailey team that he was going to win. All before the count. He lost.
In 2024, we've had a load of Tweets etc. from the Susan Hall team saying that she is going to win. All before the count. Sound familiar?
My anecdotal experience from actually living in London is that Khan is fairly unpopular but nobody thinks Susan Hall will be better, in fact she will be much worse. And what she said particularly on getting mugged, Hammersmith Bridge was laughable nonsense. She's a joke candidate.
A good Tory would have beaten Khan handsomely. But Susan Hall is not that candidate.
In Wandsworth, I am not surprised to see Labour doing well as they've run the council very competently since they took over and people have been happy with how they've done.
I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.
Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.
Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.
The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.
Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"
He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.
His biggest political mistake so far I think. He tried to pick the safe course and failed. I know one lady who's planning to abstain (she lives in marginal seat) as a result.
Personally I think she'll regret it - she hates the Tories and will be gutted if they get in again and can't really expect a Starmer condemnation to actually help anyone in Gaza... but it's her vote not mine...
Yes, we have lost votes and seats to Hamas candidates in various towns and cities, including in my patch on Bradford Council. But we've been gaining votes and seats from the Tories where it matters.
The right strategy with the right result.
So Muslim voters who deserted Labour are Hamas supporters? Looking forward to some dickhead Lab SPAD tweeting something to that effect.
You stalk Labour SPAD twitter feeds? Despite not knowing them from Adam. Wow! Creepy!
You’re certainly stalking me, you mentally unbalanced creep. Get a hobby, find some friends (not one of your life skills I sense), spend more time on Linkedin, they’ll certainly reduce the tedium level all round.
In 2021, we had a load of Tweets etc. from the Shaun Bailey team that he was going to win. All before the count. He lost.
In 2024, we've had a load of Tweets etc. from the Susan Hall team saying that she is going to win. All before the count. Sound familiar?
My anecdotal experience from actually living in London is that Khan is fairly unpopular but nobody thinks Susan Hall will be worse. And what she said particularly on getting mugged, Hammersmith Bridge was laughable nonsense. She's a joke candidate.
A good Tory would have beaten Khan handsomely. But Susan Hall is not that candidate.
In Wandsworth, I am not surprised to see Labour doing well as they've run the council very competently since they took over and people have been happy with how they've done.
In 2021, we had a load of Tweets etc. from the Shaun Bailey team that he was going to win. All before the count. He lost.
In 2024, we've had a load of Tweets etc. from the Susan Hall team saying that she is going to win. All before the count. Sound familiar?
My anecdotal experience from actually living in London is that Khan is fairly unpopular but nobody thinks Susan Hall will be worse. And what she said particularly on getting mugged, Hammersmith Bridge was laughable nonsense. She's a joke candidate.
A good Tory would have beaten Khan handsomely. But Susan Hall is not that candidate.
In Wandsworth, I am not surprised to see Labour doing well as they've run the council very competently since they took over and people have been happy with how they've done.
Khan doubled his vote lead in Merton and Wandsworth vs 2021. Lead 18k up on 2021.
As expected, a swing to Labour in Wandsworth on the back of decent delivery from the council, Khan being "meh" here and Susan Hall being a joke.
Khan will cruise to victory on those kinds of results, indicating the polls have got it almost spot on.
Actually living in Wandsworth as I do, I am not surprised to see these results. It was obvious when the Tories were handing out green flyers with Tories in minuscule font that they knew they were on for a drubbing.
Another reason why immigration needs, in essence, to end
I found this extraordinarily bleak account on Conservative Home, giving one reason why so many councils are going bust
"The Children’s Social Care system is in many cities and larger towns collapsing, in large part as a disastrous consequence of the broken Immigration system...
"I was recently stunned to the point of initial disbelief during a conversation with a friend during which he mentioned that a child placed in residential care costs the average local council roughly £5,500 per week and rapidly rising. I was equally taken aback when he stated that in large cities, anywhere between 40 per cent and 60 per cent (and rising) of the children being placed in these expensive placements are children whose mothers are immigrants."
"Bradford Council reports that its average current cost per child residential placement, is at the time of writing £6,498 per week, £337,896 per year, which dwarfs the £4,258 per month, £51,100 per year cost of housing adult immigrants in nice hotels etc. The immigrant child in care is costing more than six adult immigrants in a hotel and the public don’t even know about the scale of it.
"Sadly, the number of immigrant children in care is rising at shocking rates in major cities throughout the country. Using Bradford Council as an example again, in the 2017-18 Municipal Year, there were 42 children in external care placements, but this had risen to 214 by the end of 2023 at a combined cost at least £65 million to £75 million over the period.
"With each increase of three children in care placements coming in at a cool £1 million per year, dozens of councils will become effectively bankrupt in a couple of years or so unless there is an urgent, serious intervention."
The Tories thought it was a wizard idea to import 1.4m people in 2 years. Labour thought it would be amusing to "rub the noses of the right in diversity"
And here we are
Banning cousin-marriages would be a start.
Of course. But that's just the start
I think that is what I would like to see from Mt Starmer in the main; stolid, boring, gradually reforming competence - proving more significant over time.
Of course I have some more radical small steps I want to see, starting with an English Right to Roam modelled on the Scottish one, or at least stronger rules around public access. Rishi's ejected Conservatives would squeal; let them squeal.
Khan doubled his vote lead in Merton and Wandsworth vs 2021. Lead 18k up on 2021.
As expected, a swing to Labour in Wandsworth on the back of decent delivery from the council, Khan being "meh" here and Susan Hall being a joke.
Khan will cruise to victory on those kinds of results, indicating the polls have got it almost spot on.
Actually living in Wandsworth as I do, I am not surprised to see these results. It was obvious when the Tories were handing out green flyers with Tories in minuscule font that they knew they were on for a drubbing.
Savanta, rather than Yougov, on that kind of swing.
I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.
Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.
Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.
The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.
Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"
He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.
His biggest political mistake so far I think. He tried to pick the safe course and failed. I know one lady who's planning to abstain (she lives in marginal seat) as a result.
Personally I think she'll regret it - she hates the Tories and will be gutted if they get in again and can't really expect a Starmer condemnation to actually help anyone in Gaza... but it's her vote not mine...
Yes, we have lost votes and seats to Hamas candidates in various towns and cities, including in my patch on Bradford Council. But we've been gaining votes and seats from the Tories where it matters.
The right strategy with the right result.
Aiming for a hung parliament where Labour hold the balance between the Tories and Hamas, are we? Which side would you form a coalition with?
It's Satanic to keep screaming "Hamas" when the Israeli army is about to assault Rafah where they've used terror to pen in 1.4 million people.
I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.
Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.
Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.
The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.
Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"
He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.
His biggest political mistake so far I think. He tried to pick the safe course and failed. I know one lady who's planning to abstain (she lives in marginal seat) as a result.
Personally I think she'll regret it - she hates the Tories and will be gutted if they get in again and can't really expect a Starmer condemnation to actually help anyone in Gaza... but it's her vote not mine...
Yes, we have lost votes and seats to Hamas candidates in various towns and cities, including in my patch on Bradford Council. But we've been gaining votes and seats from the Tories where it matters.
The right strategy with the right result.
Aiming for a hung parliament where Labour hold the balance between the Tories and Hamas, are we?
It's Satanic to keep screaming "Hamas" when the Israeli army is about to assault Rafah where they've used terror to pen in 1.4 million people.
I haven't been following it closely, as I couldn't give a monkey's about the place, but if Hall does win, we're truly at the end of days. No one sane can surely be voting a Tory to run anything, after what they've done to the country. Actually, I hope she does win, purely for the comedy value she'll bring. And the chaos.
"We're not expecting a result until at least 17:00 BST but it could be hours later than that, especially if it is a close race".
We are starting to get the first results as ballots are counted in the London mayoral race.
In Merton and Wandsworth, Sadiq Khan got 48.3% of the vote compared to Susan Hall who got 28.6%. But there was a 5.1 swing from the Conservatives to Labour.
It was a similar result in Greenwich and Lewisham. Mr Khan got 46.5% compared to Ms Hall on 26.2%. There was a 4.5% swing.
I haven't been following it closely, as I couldn't give a monkey's about the place, but if Hall does win, we're truly at the end of days. No one sane can surely be voting a Tory to run anything, after what they've done to the country. Actually, I hope she does win, purely for the comedy value she'll bring. And the chaos.
As someone living in Greater London, I don't endorse this message.
I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.
Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.
Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.
The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.
Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"
He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.
His biggest political mistake so far I think. He tried to pick the safe course and failed. I know one lady who's planning to abstain (she lives in marginal seat) as a result.
Personally I think she'll regret it - she hates the Tories and will be gutted if they get in again and can't really expect a Starmer condemnation to actually help anyone in Gaza... but it's her vote not mine...
Yes, we have lost votes and seats to Hamas candidates in various towns and cities, including in my patch on Bradford Council. But we've been gaining votes and seats from the Tories where it matters.
The right strategy with the right result.
Aiming for a hung parliament where Labour hold the balance between the Tories and Hamas, are we? Which side would you form a coalition with?
It's Satanic to keep screaming "Hamas" when the Israeli army is about to assault Rafah where they've used terror to pen in 1.4 million people.
I haven't been following it closely, as I couldn't give a monkey's about the place, but if Hall does win, we're truly at the end of days. No one sane can surely be voting a Tory to run anything, after what they've done to the country. Actually, I hope she does win, purely for the comedy value she'll bring. And the chaos.
As someone living in Greater London, I don't endorse this message.
At times like this, think of it as London doing its bit to cheer the rest of the country up.
"We're not expecting a result until at least 17:00 BST but it could be hours later than that, especially if it is a close race".
We are starting to get the first results as ballots are counted in the London mayoral race.
In Merton and Wandsworth, Sadiq Khan got 48.3% of the vote compared to Susan Hall who got 28.6%. But there was a 5.1 swing from the Conservatives to Labour.
It was a similar result in Greenwich and Lewisham. Mr Khan got 46.5% compared to Ms Hall on 26.2%. There was a 4.5% swing.
Hall out to 120
So, about a 5% swing to Khan, pretty much what the polling said.
Polls are far more reliable than random social media speculation. Remember this always.
One note of caution: other London boroughs could show a very different story, although I now don't doubt Khan has won.
Merton and Wandsworth is the sort of place with urban young professionals you'd expect to swing to Labour.
Yes, a much lower swing to Khan in inner London than you'd expect given the national polls and the move to FPTP. And, as you say, the outer boroughs may well be different.
"We're not expecting a result until at least 17:00 BST but it could be hours later than that, especially if it is a close race".
We are starting to get the first results as ballots are counted in the London mayoral race.
In Merton and Wandsworth, Sadiq Khan got 48.3% of the vote compared to Susan Hall who got 28.6%. But there was a 5.1 swing from the Conservatives to Labour.
It was a similar result in Greenwich and Lewisham. Mr Khan got 46.5% compared to Ms Hall on 26.2%. There was a 4.5% swing.
Hall out to 120
So, about a 5% swing to Khan, pretty much what the polling said.
Polls are far more reliable than random social media speculation. Remember this always.
Well, last time they were out by a long way, to be fair.
I am going to pull my hair out at the roots if Hall wins. People wanted to punish labour for Gaza and in return they put a far right crackpot like Hall... talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. It reminds me of brexit.... that also went through due to passive voters. 🤷🤷🤷
I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.
Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.
Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.
The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.
Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"
He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.
His biggest political mistake so far I think. He tried to pick the safe course and failed. I know one lady who's planning to abstain (she lives in marginal seat) as a result.
Personally I think she'll regret it - she hates the Tories and will be gutted if they get in again and can't really expect a Starmer condemnation to actually help anyone in Gaza... but it's her vote not mine...
Yes, we have lost votes and seats to Hamas candidates in various towns and cities, including in my patch on Bradford Council. But we've been gaining votes and seats from the Tories where it matters.
The right strategy with the right result.
So Muslim voters who deserted Labour are Hamas supporters? Looking forward to some dickhead Lab SPAD tweeting something to that effect.
Hamas apologists, certainly.
I don't hear many demands for the hostages to be released.
Yes, the one thing that more than anything else would end the war, but I've never seen the protesters call for that.
Ending the war while Israeli hostages remain captive is a war aim of Hamas. Even the western governments who oppose Israel don't want this, but makes sense that the 100%-solidarity people do.
One note of caution: other London boroughs could show a very different story, although I now don't doubt Khan has won.
Merton and Wandsworth is the sort of place with urban young professionals you'd expect to swing to Labour.
Tories are also hit in Merton by the Lib Dems, who are targeting the Wimbledon part hard. Tories had a very poor set of local elections there in 2022, slipping to a fairly distant third across Merton.
I agree it will vary a fair bit, but also that it's looking unpromising for Hall.
Really thinly traded market but Labour's come in to 1.01 in WMids.
Which market is this please?
I'm looking at Exchange where Street is still available at 1.15
Was the Exchange for half an hour or so. They're now back out to 2.1 with Street at 1.15. Someone clearly decided to use £100 to gobble up any liquidity on Labour.
Looking at those first two results, Hall is matching her YouGov predicted London wide total in Khan friendly areas, so pivot to Savanta as a guide now? YouGov is very bearish on Tory VI in all formats compared to others
Really thinly traded market but Labour's come in to 1.01 in WMids.
Which market is this please?
I'm looking at Exchange where Street is still available at 1.15
Was the Exchange for half an hour or so. They're now back out to 2.1 with Street at 1.15. Someone clearly decided to use £100 to gobble up any liquidity on Labour.
Labour back out to 4 now.
I'm not sure anyone knows (yet) else it would all be gone.
I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.
Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.
Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.
The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.
Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"
He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.
His biggest political mistake so far I think. He tried to pick the safe course and failed. I know one lady who's planning to abstain (she lives in marginal seat) as a result.
Personally I think she'll regret it - she hates the Tories and will be gutted if they get in again and can't really expect a Starmer condemnation to actually help anyone in Gaza... but it's her vote not mine...
From the point of winning, a vote won from the Tories, is the equivalent of two lost to the Left.
Why actually, should Starmer worry that much about alienating left wing voters about Gaza?
That's generally true and indeed Starmers strategy is generally very good.
But Tories are not going to be swayed by a Gaza stance... either they agree govt is shit or they're die hard Tories who won't vote Labour anyway.
One note of caution: other London boroughs could show a very different story, although I now don't doubt Khan has won.
Merton and Wandsworth is the sort of place with urban young professionals you'd expect to swing to Labour.
That's the medium term problem the Conservatives have to face.
Go back a few decades, and there were a decent number of urban young professionals on the right. The sort of people who drove the Wandsworth 1990 win.
Now... rather less so. Going after Red Wall Man has its benefits, as 2019 showed. But it isn't cost-free.
There's still millions of them - but the Tories refuse to run people who may appeal to them. If the Tories ran Rob Blackie on a YIMBY platform they'd be very very close.
"We're not expecting a result until at least 17:00 BST but it could be hours later than that, especially if it is a close race".
We are starting to get the first results as ballots are counted in the London mayoral race.
In Merton and Wandsworth, Sadiq Khan got 48.3% of the vote compared to Susan Hall who got 28.6%. But there was a 5.1 swing from the Conservatives to Labour.
It was a similar result in Greenwich and Lewisham. Mr Khan got 46.5% compared to Ms Hall on 26.2%. There was a 4.5% swing.
Hall out to 120
So, about a 5% swing to Khan, pretty much what the polling said.
Polls are far more reliable than random social media speculation. Remember this always.
Well, last time they were out by a long way, to be fair.
They were close in the three mayoral contests before that. They were somewhat out last time (although those who were predicting a Hall win would have required a much greater polling fail).
Even last time, the polls said Khan would win, while some random social media speculation said Bailey would win… and Khan did win. So, I remain of the view than polls are far more reliable than random social media speculation.
That said, clearly there are trading opportunities given how people react to speculation when counting takes a long time to produce an answer.
I am going to pull my hair out at the roots if Hall wins. People wanted to punish labour for Gaza and in return they put a far right crackpot like Hall... talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. It reminds me of brexit.... that also went through due to passive voters. 🤷🤷🤷
Really thinly traded market but Labour's come in to 1.01 in WMids.
Which market is this please?
I'm looking at Exchange where Street is still available at 1.15
Was the Exchange for half an hour or so. They're now back out to 2.1 with Street at 1.15. Someone clearly decided to use £100 to gobble up any liquidity on Labour.
Labour back out to 4 now.
I'm not sure anyone knows (yet) else it would all be gone.
I am going to pull my hair out at the roots if Hall wins. People wanted to punish labour for Gaza and in return they put a far right crackpot like Hall... talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. It reminds me of brexit.... that also went through due to passive voters. 🤷🤷🤷
And same could have in USA.
Young dont bother voting for Biden and then find themselves in Gilead.
Sky not showing vote change / swing figures for these first couple of London results which is a bit poor.
Not much point. It is a different voting system.
Thank you Mr Johnson. Another fine mess you have got us into.
Comparing with first preferences last time out would sure be a decent indicator, if caveats provided.
Disagree. FPTP functions more like the second preference in SV for anyone paying attention. Of course, most people don't pay attention so you can't compare with the second prefs from last time, either...
Puppy-shooter Kristi Noem, Republican Governor of South Dakota, now having to admit the story in her memoir of meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was, how to put this, a lie.
I think you can safely strike her from the list of Trump's 2024 running mates....
Sky not showing vote change / swing figures for these first couple of London results which is a bit poor.
Not much point. It is a different voting system.
Thank you Mr Johnson. Another fine mess you have got us into.
There is, surely, a point in comparing votes this time with first choice votes last time?
People will change behaviour a bit due to the change of system, that would mainly be at the level of Lib Dems, Greens and RefUK no longer having the luxury of a first choice which they can then switch to the "real" contest - so they may be more inclined to vote tactially. But swing is between the top two parties anyway, and the essential point is that Hall needs a swing to her compared with first choice votes in 2021.
I am going to pull my hair out at the roots if Hall wins. People wanted to punish labour for Gaza and in return they put a far right crackpot like Hall... talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. It reminds me of brexit.... that also went through due to passive voters. 🤷🤷🤷
I really don't think it's reasonable to call Hall a far-right crackpot.
Comments
If so, I'm not sure that there'd be enough data available - there's no UK equivalent of Reddit or Google to use, so you'd be reduced to feeding it Friends Reunited from 20 years ago and the Daily Mail comments section!
Maybe you could restrict the RLHF in some way, or do some other form of alignment to make it UK-specific, but I'm not sure I see what the point of that would be.
The next government really need to move it back to electronic counting.
London is interesting, in that despite shifting to the left, and huge demographic shifts since 1992, there does seem to be fairly consistent Conservative vote of 30% or so, give or take. The nature of that vote has varied over that period, even as the overall figure remains consistent. In some places, like Hornsey, Ilford, Streatham, Dulwich, that vote has largely disappeared. In others, it's held very firm, even increased, such as Hillingdon, Bexley (once a marginal council), Bromley (once an area of big Lib Dem strength). In others, it's fallen away rapidly and has then recovered (such as Harrow), as Indian voters switch to the Conservatives in a big way.
I think it makes sense to view London not so much as one city with a single identity, but more as a city that has grown outward, plus a group of towns and villages, each with their own identity, that have grown into each other.
Democracy innit
Why actually, should Starmer worry that much about alienating left wing voters about Gaza?
Dickhead. Labour do not own the Muslim vote
The right strategy with the right result.
Are there actually "Hamas candidates", or people who openly support them?
I presumed it was amusing hyperbole, but these days, who knows
The things that continue to flabbergast me about the Susan Hall selection / candidacy are:
1 - That she has such a unique combination of arrogance and ignorance.
2 - That for a London Assembly member of some years' standing, she seems to have no idea of the powers of the London Mayor or where the boundary of London is actually set. *
3 - That the Conservatives should have such a death wish. TBF they also stood Caroline Henry as PCC in Notts, where that one has been a laughing stock since 2021.
4 = The conspiracy theories ! The conspiracy theories !
* I've noted before her desire to build things by some sort of Diktat in Royal Parks, and do things where the powers belong to the Boroughs.
Even this week I've seen her blaming Sadiq Khan for a fire in Essex.
It looks quite poor for Labour to win a NEV of 33/34%, but again, account must be taken of the very big vote now going to minor parties/residents/independents. It may be that we simply won't see any party will a NEV of 40%+ in the future.
I've seen it in a candidate selection meeting that was a total stitch up.
Because otherwise, eventually, it can come back to haunt you.
Just lots of independents who happen to have been elected in Muslim areas.
I don't hear many demands for the hostages to be released.
I've also been impressed by the scale of the Green Vote, and I wonder whether there are potential vote-split questions on both left and right. I think that tactical voting will be more sophisticated on the left (Galloway and stone age socialists perhaps excepted), so I would see that as an issue for the left mostly where Greens or LDs have a realistic prospect of 1st or 2nd.
In 2024, we've had a load of Tweets etc. from the Susan Hall team saying that she is going to win. All before the count. Sound familiar?
My anecdotal experience from actually living in London is that Khan is fairly unpopular but nobody thinks Susan Hall will be better, in fact she will be much worse. And what she said particularly on getting mugged, Hammersmith Bridge was laughable nonsense. She's a joke candidate.
A good Tory would have beaten Khan handsomely. But Susan Hall is not that candidate.
In Wandsworth, I am not surprised to see Labour doing well as they've run the council very competently since they took over and people have been happy with how they've done.
Get a hobby, find some friends (not one of your life skills I sense), spend more time on Linkedin, they’ll certainly reduce the tedium level all round.
https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/election-progress/watch-live-results
Blast.
Khan will cruise to victory on those kinds of results, indicating the polls have got it almost spot on.
Actually living in Wandsworth as I do, I am not surprised to see these results. It was obvious when the Tories were handing out green flyers with Tories in minuscule font that they knew they were on for a drubbing.
Of course I have some more radical small steps I want to see, starting with an English Right to Roam modelled on the Scottish one, or at least stronger rules around public access. Rishi's ejected Conservatives would squeal; let them squeal.
Which sounds like a bloody stupid idea.
I will leave the "pruning your bushes" jokes to @ydoethur and others.
It's Satanic to keep screaming "Hamas" when the Israeli army is about to assault Rafah where they've used terror to pen in 1.4 million people.
Actually, I hope she does win, purely for the comedy value she'll bring. And the chaos.
In Merton and Wandsworth, Sadiq Khan got 48.3% of the vote compared to Susan Hall who got 28.6%. But there was a 5.1 swing from the Conservatives to Labour.
It was a similar result in Greenwich and Lewisham. Mr Khan got 46.5% compared to Ms Hall on 26.2%. There was a 4.5% swing.
Hall out to 120
Merton and Wandsworth is the sort of place with urban young professionals you'd expect to swing to Labour.
Lot more than that, it seems
oh well. The boring joyless homonculus for another 4 years of drift; fab
🌹 Rotherham (LAB): 68.0% (+9.7)
🌳 Marsden (CON): 10.2% (-9.4)
🌍 Crone (GRN): 9.8% (-2.0)
🔶 McAllister-Bell (LDM): 7.9% (-2.4)
🙋 Smith (IND): 4.1% (New)
Labour HOLD.
Changes w/ 2021.
Jade hangs on to second by a whisker
(Apart from here obvs).
Polls are far more reliable than random social media speculation. Remember this always.
I'm looking at Exchange where Street is still available at 1.15
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mWkotIMNbQ
I agree it will vary a fair bit, but also that it's looking unpromising for Hall.
Go back a few decades, and there were a decent number of urban young professionals on the right. The sort of people who drove the Wandsworth 1990 win.
Now... rather less so. Going after Red Wall Man has its benefits, as 2019 showed. But it isn't cost-free.
Thank you Mr Johnson. Another fine mess you have got us into.
I'm not sure anyone knows (yet) else it would all be gone.
But Tories are not going to be swayed by a Gaza stance... either they agree govt is shit or they're die hard Tories who won't vote Labour anyway.
Even last time, the polls said Khan would win, while some random social media speculation said Bailey would win… and Khan did win. So, I remain of the view than polls are far more reliable than random social media speculation.
That said, clearly there are trading opportunities given how people react to speculation when counting takes a long time to produce an answer.
Anything less than 110% for Labour is a fail..............
Young dont bother voting for Biden and then find themselves in Gilead.
I think you can safely strike her from the list of Trump's 2024 running mates....
People will change behaviour a bit due to the change of system, that would mainly be at the level of Lib Dems, Greens and RefUK no longer having the luxury of a first choice which they can then switch to the "real" contest - so they may be more inclined to vote tactially. But swing is between the top two parties anyway, and the essential point is that Hall needs a swing to her compared with first choice votes in 2021.