If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere wellIt were done quickly – politicalbetting.com

Casino_Royale said:

Dura_Ace said:

Casino_Royale said:

I wonder actually if a PM like Tony Blair would be the most effective in stopping the boats.

Gets the issue (and in no way dismisses it or avoids hard truths in the British interest) and would be sufficiently internationalist to actually do the deals to fix it.

You're probably right. If you haven't got the fortitude for tow backs, which the tories clearly haven't, then the only person who can (っ◔◡◔)っ ♥ STOP THE BOATS ♥ is Macron. Could Blair flatter and/or bribe Macron into doing it. Maybe.

I don't think we'd even have the fortitude for puncturing boats with knives, like the French are doing, without mass hysteria and passive resistance from Border Farce.

Macron craves attention and recognition so Blair could play him like a fiddle.

Scott_xP said:

@DeltapollUK
🚨New Voting Intention🚨
Labour lead widens to twenty points in our latest results.
Con 24% (-3)
Lab 44% (+1)
Lib Dem 8% (-1)
Reform 12% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Green 5% (-)
Other 3% (+2)
Fieldwork: 26th-29th April 2024
Sample: 1,577 GB adults
(Changes from 19th-22nd April 2024)

eek said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

As I said on the previous thread, Yousaf's resignation really changes nothing in itself. His now leaderless government would still face a VONC. He has to persuade the Greens that his sacrificial head is enough to persuade them to at least abstain in respect of Labour's VONC. I think that is possible. The Greens has made it clear that they cannot work with Yousaf who they say betrayed them. They have not ruled out with working with someone else.

The problem for the SNP is that the favourite for leader would be Forbes and her mutual contempt for the Greens is infamous. Are the Greens really going to get to have a decisive say in who is the SNP leader?

Putting it simply: yes. Yes they are.

The SNP has no majority. Any leader it proposes needs the confidence of some non-SNP MSPs. So anyone they want to propose needs to win the blessing of the Greens as well as their own.

Fun, isn’t it!

+1 - the SNP need a Green friendly candidate because the other option is an Alba friendly candidate (and that isn't an option for the insane requests that were made).

So it comes down to the SNP picking the most electorally friendly candidate because there is now an election coming sooner rather than later.

Second problem is that I suspect the SNP have zero money to fight an election with...

Fairliered said:

CarlottaVance said:

Coronation incoming:

Understand one potential frontrunner Neil Gray is telling colleagues he wants John Swinney to stand as leader of the SNP and that's his first choice to replace Humza Yousaf.

https://x.com/conor_matchett/status/1784941313663664360

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2024/04/john-swinney-as-leader-we-tried-that-it.html?m=1

TOPPING said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kinabalu said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Anyway a short excursion to calmer waters.

Mentalists: You know who are the worst antisemites?

Sane people: Who?

Mentalists: Jews!



https://x.com/realzoestrimpel/status/1784569414249058653?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

(Anti-zionist) Jews don't count.

Zionist lives matter, fck the rest of ye.

Talking about Israel, Gaza and the Jews seems to be your happy place.

GIN1138 said:

Humza really did turn out to be Useless, didn't he?

Anabobazina said:

Scott_xP said:

@DeltapollUK
🚨New Voting Intention🚨
Labour lead widens to twenty points in our latest results.
Con 24% (-3)
Lab 44% (+1)
Lib Dem 8% (-1)
Reform 12% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Green 5% (-)
Other 3% (+2)
Fieldwork: 26th-29th April 2024
Sample: 1,577 GB adults
(Changes from 19th-22nd April 2024)

Let the endless overanalyses of a MOE shift commence...


Or not.

viewcode said:

CarlottaVance said:

How gender wars can go badly:

The US - where debate is more polarised - is going in the opposite direction to the UK on gender identity ideology. UN expert @UNSRVAW says that redefining sex as gender identity in Title IX will increase the risk of male violence against women and girls....

It's a tragedy to see politicians on the left - in this case the Biden administration - collude in the erosion of women's protections against sex discrimination and single-sex spaces

https://x.com/soniasodha/status/1784929745450250251

Different countries. The number of elected positions in the US is dramatically larger in the UK (famously, "dog-catcher" is elected) and anti-trans sentiment is focussed via them. And, since wherever there are elections there are parties, it becomes a partisan issue. Information can be gathered via open meetings, hearings, election pitches, etc, and can be tracked and visualised.

In the UK, which has more non-elected state institutions involved in everyday life, such sentiment is reflected in bureaucracy (eg all prospective transitioners funnelled into specialist clinics, which inevitably develop long queues as supply is restricted), which is less visible. Information-gatherers have to resort to FOI requests or guesswork.

Taz said:

Useless speaking. Voice out of sync on the BBC feed. Piss poor from the technical side.

Fairliered said:

CarlottaVance said:

Coronation incoming:

Understand one potential frontrunner Neil Gray is telling colleagues he wants John Swinney to stand as leader of the SNP and that's his first choice to replace Humza Yousaf.

https://x.com/conor_matchett/status/1784941313663664360

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2024/04/john-swinney-as-leader-we-tried-that-it.html?m=1

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

PB putrid pundit alert - IIRC there is NO jurisdiction in the USA where "dogcatcher" is currently an elected office.

SandyRentool said:

BBC:

Three major lenders have announced they will raise rates on new fixed deal mortgages on Tuesday.

Nationwide, Santander and NatWest will push up the cost of new deals as uncertainty remains over lending costs.

They follow various rivals who lifted their rates last week.

Expectations of the extent and speed of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England have been scaled back, prompting the changes.

malcolmg said:

Scott_xP said:

@paulhutcheon

Two Swinney options circulating: caretaker, taking SNP through to GE; full-time leader

How desperate can they get

nico679 said:

Anabobazina said:

Scott_xP said:

@DeltapollUK
🚨New Voting Intention🚨
Labour lead widens to twenty points in our latest results.
Con 24% (-3)
Lab 44% (+1)
Lib Dem 8% (-1)
Reform 12% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Green 5% (-)
Other 3% (+2)
Fieldwork: 26th-29th April 2024
Sample: 1,577 GB adults
(Changes from 19th-22nd April 2024)

Let the endless overanalyses of a MOE shift commence...


Or not.

Can I be the first !

Agreed it’s likely just MOE . But I think it’s safe to say that there’s no sign of a Tory bounce after Sunaks alleged good week .

Redfield and Wilton to come at 5pm . Last weeks Tory share was 20% which with YouGov seems to be the two pollsters which often have the lowest share for them .

TheScreamingEagles said:

I might do the next thread on why the SNP should make Nicola Sturgeon the replacement for Humza Yousaf.

Andy_JS said:

I'd forgotten that John Swinney was leader between 2000 and 2004.

viewcode said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

PB putrid pundit alert - IIRC there is NO jurisdiction in the USA where "dogcatcher" is currently an elected office.

Dammit! That was one of my favourite fact about the United States!

I am vexed

Fairliered said:

Theuniondivvie said:

numbertwelve said:

If Swinney runs, he feels like the winning candidate to me*.

He probably keeps the Greens on side.

He doesn’t rock the boat too much within the party.

*but again, I do think this is a bit of an awkward one to predict. You’re going to have all sorts of external influence about who members should
choose based on the parliamentary arithmetic etc, and I’m not sure how that will swing things.

I would be amazed if he ran for leader rather than took it on as temporary caretaker. The only motive for the former would be to take the hit for electoral defeat and leave a cleanish sheet for his successor, and I don't think even he's that selfless.

Contra Unionist sneering he's quite popular in the party and seen as honourable so would work as a calming caretaker. I believe his wife has MS so I guess he would be doing a lot of consulting with her before taking on all the shite that goes with being even a temporary leader.

The SNP, like the Tories, are in a position where they probably need to regroup and decide whether they want to stay on the left, aligned with the Greens and be a party of devolution with an aspiration of independence at some specified time in the future (the Sturgeon continuity wing), move towards the centre with independence more to the fore and social issues less prominent (the Forbes wing) or become a purely independence party as they once were. As an SNP member, even I recognise that sometimes parties are in power too long and end up taken over by time servers, as happened to Scottish Labour.

Andy_JS said:

I'd forgotten that John Swinney was leader between 2000 and 2004.

Nigelb said:

The FT article itself is paywalled, but if Tim Harford is representative of their columnists, then it's not worth paying for.

I've studied the history of solar energy and it never once occured to me that people might think that the technology would get cheaper with time by itself without mass production. What a bizarre belief
https://twitter.com/MaxJerneck/status/1784594856104399167

Jim_Miller said:

Related to the topic: It is not much talked about, but some nations would be better off for their people if the world were permanently 2 or 3 degrees warmer. (Canada, for instance.)

Would Scotland be one of them? That seems likely to me. But -- correct me if I am wrong -- I assume the Greens in Scotland are very much opposed to global warming.

Which, if true, requires an explanation.

Jim_Miller said:

Related to the topic: It is not much talked about, but some nations would be better off for their people if the world were permanently 2 or 3 degrees warmer. (Canada, for instance.)

Would Scotland be one of them? That seems likely to me. But -- correct me if I am wrong -- I assume the Greens in Scotland are very much opposed to global warming.

Which, if true, requires an explanation.

rcs1000 said:

Jim_Miller said:

Related to the topic: It is not much talked about, but some nations would be better off for their people if the world were permanently 2 or 3 degrees warmer. (Canada, for instance.)

Would Scotland be one of them? That seems likely to me. But -- correct me if I am wrong -- I assume the Greens in Scotland are very much opposed to global warming.

Which, if true, requires an explanation.

The answer is that Scotland (and the rest of the UK) would almost certainly not be better off in a warmer world, while Canada almost certainly would be.

The UK is much warmer than it's latitude would suggest. It's a long way north of not just New York, but Boston too. Indeed, London is north of 90% of Canada's population, and Edinburgh is north of more than 95% of it.

And this is thanks to the Gulf Stream. Take than warm water away, and the UK and Scotland will get much colder, even if the earth itself is meaningfully warmer.

malcolmg said:

Andy_JS said:

I'd forgotten that John Swinney was leader between 2000 and 2004.

He made Hague and IDS look like they were giants.

Jim_Miller said:

Related to the topic: It is not much talked about, but some nations would be better off for their people if the world were permanently 2 or 3 degrees warmer. (Canada, for instance.)

Would Scotland be one of them? That seems likely to me. But -- correct me if I am wrong -- I assume the Greens in Scotland are very much opposed to global warming.

Which, if true, requires an explanation.

nico679 said:

SandyRentool said:

BBC:

Three major lenders have announced they will raise rates on new fixed deal mortgages on Tuesday.

Nationwide, Santander and NatWest will push up the cost of new deals as uncertainty remains over lending costs.

They follow various rivals who lifted their rates last week.

Expectations of the extent and speed of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England have been scaled back, prompting the changes.

Lucky for Sunak this isn’t getting more media attention .

rcs1000 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

viewcode said:

CarlottaVance said:

How gender wars can go badly:

The US - where debate is more polarised - is going in the opposite direction to the UK on gender identity ideology. UN expert @UNSRVAW says that redefining sex as gender identity in Title IX will increase the risk of male violence against women and girls....

It's a tragedy to see politicians on the left - in this case the Biden administration - collude in the erosion of women's protections against sex discrimination and single-sex spaces

https://x.com/soniasodha/status/1784929745450250251

Different countries. The number of elected positions in the US is dramatically larger in the UK (famously, "dog-catcher" is elected) and anti-trans sentiment is focussed via them. And, since wherever there are elections there are parties, it becomes a partisan issue. Information can be gathered via open meetings, hearings, election pitches, etc, and can be tracked and visualised.

In the UK, which has more non-elected state institutions involved in everyday life, such sentiment is reflected in bureaucracy (eg all prospective transitioners funnelled into specialist clinics, which inevitably develop long queues as supply is restricted), which is less visible. Information-gatherers have to resort to FOI requests or guesswork.

PB putrid pundit alert - IIRC there is NO jurisdiction in the USA where "dogcatcher" is currently an elected office.

The phrase (with variants) "He couldn't get himself elected dogcatcher" being apocryphal, and more comic say than, "he couldn't get himself elected as [for example] local constable" which IS an elected office in some states.

Aside from that, your first paragraph is pretty much spot on. Though there ARE many offices from sea to shining sea that are officially non-partisan, for example most city council positions (such as in Seattle and other WA cities and towns) and the unicameral Nebraska state legislature.

However, there is quite often (but not necessarily) a partisan dimension to these non-partisan offices.

BTW, yours truly is (currently anyway) an elected "Precinct Committee Officer (aka PCO) for the Democratic Party, a position (along with Republican PCO) that is elected via primary election ballot every two years (including this August). However, only CONTESTED races for PCO (one major party or the other) are actually on the ballot; uncontested PCO candidates are deemed elected, as a way of reducing the clutter on primary ballots AND saving counties money re: ballot printing (no need for separate ballot styles for individual precincts).

Ahem:

Duxbury, Vermont

See: https://www.npr.org/2018/04/07/600482792/you-couldn-t-get-elected-dogcatcher-no-seriously

Taz said:

malcolmg said:

Andy_JS said:

I'd forgotten that John Swinney was leader between 2000 and 2004.

He made Hague and IDS look like they were giants.

Good afternoon Malc, hope all is good with you

That is very withering and damning but makes me laugh.

nico679 said:

Anabobazina said:

Scott_xP said:

@DeltapollUK
🚨New Voting Intention🚨
Labour lead widens to twenty points in our latest results.
Con 24% (-3)
Lab 44% (+1)
Lib Dem 8% (-1)
Reform 12% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Green 5% (-)
Other 3% (+2)
Fieldwork: 26th-29th April 2024
Sample: 1,577 GB adults
(Changes from 19th-22nd April 2024)

Let the endless overanalyses of a MOE shift commence...


Or not.

Can I be the first !

Agreed it’s likely just MOE . But I think it’s safe to say that there’s no sign of a Tory bounce after Sunaks alleged good week .

Redfield and Wilton to come at 5pm . Last weeks Tory share was 20% which with YouGov seems to be the two pollsters which often have the lowest share for them .

rcs1000 said:

Nigelb said:

The FT article itself is paywalled, but if Tim Harford is representative of their columnists, then it's not worth paying for.

I've studied the history of solar energy and it never once occured to me that people might think that the technology would get cheaper with time by itself without mass production. What a bizarre belief
https://twitter.com/MaxJerneck/status/1784594856104399167

Tim Hartford is a generally excellent commentator, and his book - The Undercover Economist - is well worth reading.

This is not his best article, but the quoting is partial. He's merely making the point that there's nothing extrinsic that causes production costs to decline, merely that the more factories there are, and the more competition there is, the more efficiencies that will be able to be squeezed out.

And, for what it's worth, people regularly did use the phrase "Moore's Law" with regards to solar costs. So the point is not entirely without merit (except for the point that Moore's law itself only existed because of the price elasticity of demand for semiconductors.)

Jim_Miller said:

In the US, some (me included) see many Greens as motivated by what can be best understood as religious views. Or, if you want to be mean about it, anti-science superstition.

(If you are interested in a book-length discussion of that argument, here's a good place to start: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Encounters_with_the_Archdruid )

Scott_xP said:

@euanmccolm

is it really going to go salmond, swinney, sturgeon, salmond, sturgeon, yousaf swinney? what does it say about the quality of the party’s representatives if the SNP’s seven Holyrood leaders are drawn from a pool of four people.

rcs1000 said:

Jim_Miller said:

Related to the topic: It is not much talked about, but some nations would be better off for their people if the world were permanently 2 or 3 degrees warmer. (Canada, for instance.)

Would Scotland be one of them? That seems likely to me. But -- correct me if I am wrong -- I assume the Greens in Scotland are very much opposed to global warming.

Which, if true, requires an explanation.

The answer is that Scotland (and the rest of the UK) would almost certainly not be better off in a warmer world, while Canada almost certainly would be.

The UK is much warmer than it's latitude would suggest. It's a long way north of not just New York, but Boston too. Indeed, London is north of 90% of Canada's population, and Edinburgh is north of more than 95% of it.

And this is thanks to the Gulf Stream. Take than warm water away, and the UK and Scotland will get much colder, even if the earth itself is meaningfully warmer.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Omnium said:

eek said:

Royal Mail suspends fines for letters received with 'counterfeit' barcoded stamps while it develops an app so customers can check themselves if a stamp is real.

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/24285908.royal-mail-pause-5-fines-counterfeit-stamp-fears/?ref=rss

I wonder what the historical rates of stamp forgery (in order to use postal services) have been? It's such a shame that the collectability of stamps has been demolished entirely really (by forgeries and the activities of the Royal Mail and others). It was quite fun when I was 12.

Nexus between philately and psephology:

Several decades ago, there was a VERY close legislative race out on the Olympic Peninsula of WA State, with Democratic incumbent and Republican challenger separated by (IIRC) just two votes

After the last vote count, the GOPer was ahead by (IIRC) two votes.

HOWEVER, in one of the counties involved, the local Auditor had the practice, of giving a local Boy Scout troop return absentee ballot envelopes received from local voters temporarily resident in foreign counties, so the boys could collect the stamps.

At which point, the scouts discovered that there were (IIRC) three envelopes which contained ballots that had NOT (yet) been counted.

When these ballots were verified (via signature match) and validated, turned out there were THREE more votes for the Democrat . . . who was thus elected by ONE vote margin.

Several years later, actually met the losing candidate. Who told me her version of the above story; she was VERY gracious about the outcome, which (quite rightly) led to tightening of the procedure for checking allegedly-empty return ballot envelopes.

Anabobazina said:

Scott_xP said:

@DeltapollUK
🚨New Voting Intention🚨
Labour lead widens to twenty points in our latest results.
Con 24% (-3)
Lab 44% (+1)
Lib Dem 8% (-1)
Reform 12% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Green 5% (-)
Other 3% (+2)
Fieldwork: 26th-29th April 2024
Sample: 1,577 GB adults
(Changes from 19th-22nd April 2024)

Let the endless overanalyses of a MOE shift commence...


Or not.

Leon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Fairliered said:

CarlottaVance said:

Coronation incoming:

Understand one potential frontrunner Neil Gray is telling colleagues he wants John Swinney to stand as leader of the SNP and that's his first choice to replace Humza Yousaf.

https://x.com/conor_matchett/status/1784941313663664360

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2024/04/john-swinney-as-leader-we-tried-that-it.html?m=1

Interesting.

James for Kate - didn't see that coming!

James is quite unwoke and loathes the militant trans nonsense. It’s a shame he no longer comments here, he brings a different perspective

The centre right alba-inclined Nat, but not an insane Pictish hoon like @malcolmg much as we love him

Anabobazina said:

nico679 said:

Anabobazina said:

Scott_xP said:

@DeltapollUK
🚨New Voting Intention🚨
Labour lead widens to twenty points in our latest results.
Con 24% (-3)
Lab 44% (+1)
Lib Dem 8% (-1)
Reform 12% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Green 5% (-)
Other 3% (+2)
Fieldwork: 26th-29th April 2024
Sample: 1,577 GB adults
(Changes from 19th-22nd April 2024)

Let the endless overanalyses of a MOE shift commence...


Or not.

Can I be the first !

Agreed it’s likely just MOE . But I think it’s safe to say that there’s no sign of a Tory bounce after Sunaks alleged good week .

Redfield and Wilton to come at 5pm . Last weeks Tory share was 20% which with YouGov seems to be the two pollsters which often have the lowest share for them .

In what way was it a 'good week'? I must have missed that somehow.

MattW said:

viewcode said:

CarlottaVance said:

How gender wars can go badly:

The US - where debate is more polarised - is going in the opposite direction to the UK on gender identity ideology. UN expert @UNSRVAW says that redefining sex as gender identity in Title IX will increase the risk of male violence against women and girls....

It's a tragedy to see politicians on the left - in this case the Biden administration - collude in the erosion of women's protections against sex discrimination and single-sex spaces

https://x.com/soniasodha/status/1784929745450250251

Different countries. The number of elected positions in the US is dramatically larger in the UK (famously, "dog-catcher" is elected) and anti-trans sentiment is focussed via them. And, since wherever there are elections there are parties, it becomes a partisan issue. Information can be gathered via open meetings, hearings, election pitches, etc, and can be tracked and visualised.

In the UK, which has more non-elected state institutions involved in everyday life, such sentiment is reflected in bureaucracy (eg all prospective transitioners funnelled into specialist clinics, which inevitably develop long queues as supply is restricted), which is less visible. Information-gatherers have to resort to FOI requests or guesswork.

Fortunately dog-killer, aka Mr Chump's aspirational VP, is not yet elected.

Though now there is conversation about horse-killer as well.

Scott_xP said:

@euanmccolm

is it really going to go salmond, swinney, sturgeon, salmond, sturgeon, yousaf swinney? what does it say about the quality of the party’s representatives if the SNP’s seven Holyrood leaders are drawn from a pool of four people.

LostPassword said:

Jim_Miller said:

In the US, some (me included) see many Greens as motivated by what can be best understood as religious views. Or, if you want to be mean about it, anti-science superstition.

(If you are interested in a book-length discussion of that argument, here's a good place to start: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Encounters_with_the_Archdruid )

I'm sure some are. You find all types of people.

But I'm a green, and I know lots like me, who come to the issue from a basis of scientific knowledge, and we wouldn't be greens were it not for that.

As a general point, everyone is motivated by their fundamental beliefs, which may or may not be religious. I'm aware that I have a fundamental belief in most people being reasonable, which is why I have given you a calm response, and not a somewhat ruder one.

Anabobazina said:

Leon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Fairliered said:

CarlottaVance said:

Coronation incoming:

Understand one potential frontrunner Neil Gray is telling colleagues he wants John Swinney to stand as leader of the SNP and that's his first choice to replace Humza Yousaf.

https://x.com/conor_matchett/status/1784941313663664360

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2024/04/john-swinney-as-leader-we-tried-that-it.html?m=1

Interesting.

James for Kate - didn't see that coming!

James is quite unwoke and loathes the militant trans nonsense. It’s a shame he no longer comments here, he brings a different perspective

The centre right alba-inclined Nat, but not an insane Pictish hoon like @malcolmg much as we love him

Yes, what happened to him? He was an excellent poster, as you say. Although I’m not sure he’d describe himself as centre-right. As previously discussed the trans stuff is not a left/right issue: lefties don’t agree with each other on it!