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If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere wellIt were done quickly – politicalbetting.com

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  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,930

    Coronation incoming:

    Understand one potential frontrunner Neil Gray is telling colleagues he wants John Swinney to stand as leader of the SNP and that's his first choice to replace Humza Yousaf.

    https://x.com/conor_matchett/status/1784941313663664360

    https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2024/04/john-swinney-as-leader-we-tried-that-it.html?m=1
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,098

    Dura_Ace said:

    I wonder actually if a PM like Tony Blair would be the most effective in stopping the boats.

    Gets the issue (and in no way dismisses it or avoids hard truths in the British interest) and would be sufficiently internationalist to actually do the deals to fix it.

    You're probably right. If you haven't got the fortitude for tow backs, which the tories clearly haven't, then the only person who can (っ◔◡◔)っ ♥ STOP THE BOATS ♥ is Macron. Could Blair flatter and/or bribe Macron into doing it. Maybe.
    I don't think we'd even have the fortitude for puncturing boats with knives, like the French are doing, without mass hysteria and passive resistance from Border Farce.

    Macron craves attention and recognition so Blair could play him like a fiddle.
    Not sure about this. You could swap the names there and still have a defensible sentence. Could go either way as to who's the master fiddler and who's the fiddle.

    Starmer otoh might be just the man for the job.. He has no pretensions of personal 'x factor' stardom. Of course becoming PM after a landslide election win might go to his head but I doubt it. I sense he isn't the type.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,952
    DougSeal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    WILL SOMEBODY PLEASE MAKE THIS WHOLE WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN TO SCOTLAND THING GO AWAY.

    No one cares ffs.

    I care deeply about Scotland.

    I'm a Unionist.
    Don't be absurd. Literally no one else cares. You and Big G that's it.
    You're saying the inhabitants of Scotland are "literally nobody" ?
    Interesting take.
    I am saying that no one cares what the "government" of Scotland does or doesn't do for the most part it seems to consist of making downtown Edinburgh a Gaza Sympathy Zone.
    However "pro-Israel" one might be, I don't think that precludes sympathy for the people of Gaza. At least I hope it doesn't.
    Definitely not. But for it, together with whatever they are saying about trans, to be the main policy elements of the entire government seems to be misplaced priorities. Or rather, as I noted earlier, it is all they are left with as a role of government.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,189
    YouGov have polled Wisconsin Head to Head and got
    Biden 49
    Trump 50
    and at the same time a 3-way with Stein
    Biden 44
    Trump 48
    Stein 8

    Whereas in Michigan H2H
    Biden 51
    Trump 49

    and at the same time 4-way with Kennedy and Stein
    Biden 45
    Trump 43
    Kennedy 9
    Stein 3

    Suggests that Kennedy is taking votes from both Biden and Trump - but probably a bit more from Trump, whereas Stein (and probably West) are mostly taking votes from Biden. At least in Michigan and Wisconsin, it's probably different in California.
    Either way, I think it still makes sense to look at just head to head polls for a sense of how the 2-horse race is going.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-trump-poll-michigan-pennyslvania-wisconsin/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,212
    Nigelb said:

    The FT article itself is paywalled, but if Tim Harford is representative of their columnists, then it's not worth paying for.

    I've studied the history of solar energy and it never once occured to me that people might think that the technology would get cheaper with time by itself without mass production. What a bizarre belief
    https://twitter.com/MaxJerneck/status/1784594856104399167

    Solar got cheaper (and is still getting cheaper) because of technology improvements independent of mass production *and* iterative improvements in production techniques *and* cost reductions from mass production.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Scott_xP said:

    @DeltapollUK
    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead widens to twenty points in our latest results.
    Con 24% (-3)
    Lab 44% (+1)
    Lib Dem 8% (-1)
    Reform 12% (-)
    SNP 3% (-)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 3% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th-29th April 2024
    Sample: 1,577 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th-22nd April 2024)

    Let the endless overanalyses of a MOE shift commence...


    Or not.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Coronation incoming:

    Understand one potential frontrunner Neil Gray is telling colleagues he wants John Swinney to stand as leader of the SNP and that's his first choice to replace Humza Yousaf.

    https://x.com/conor_matchett/status/1784941313663664360

    Swinney wins the Gray vote!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    As I said on the previous thread, Yousaf's resignation really changes nothing in itself. His now leaderless government would still face a VONC. He has to persuade the Greens that his sacrificial head is enough to persuade them to at least abstain in respect of Labour's VONC. I think that is possible. The Greens has made it clear that they cannot work with Yousaf who they say betrayed them. They have not ruled out with working with someone else.

    The problem for the SNP is that the favourite for leader would be Forbes and her mutual contempt for the Greens is infamous. Are the Greens really going to get to have a decisive say in who is the SNP leader?

    Putting it simply: yes. Yes they are.

    The SNP has no majority. Any leader it proposes needs the confidence of some non-SNP MSPs. So anyone they want to propose needs to win the blessing of the Greens as well as their own.

    Fun, isn’t it!
    +1 - the SNP need a Green friendly candidate because the other option is an Alba friendly candidate (and that isn't an option for the insane requests that were made).

    So it comes down to the SNP picking the most electorally friendly candidate because there is now an election coming sooner rather than later.

    Second problem is that I suspect the SNP have zero money to fight an election with...
    Sucking up to the Greens will cost them big time
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    TOPPING said:

    WILL SOMEBODY PLEASE MAKE THIS WHOLE WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN TO SCOTLAND THING GO AWAY.

    No one cares ffs.

    I think you might be on the wrong blogsite if you're not interested in Scottish politics.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Coronation incoming:

    Understand one potential frontrunner Neil Gray is telling colleagues he wants John Swinney to stand as leader of the SNP and that's his first choice to replace Humza Yousaf.

    https://x.com/conor_matchett/status/1784941313663664360

    https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2024/04/john-swinney-as-leader-we-tried-that-it.html?m=1
    Interesting.

    James for Kate - didn't see that coming!
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    Scott_xP said:

    @DeltapollUK
    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead widens to twenty points in our latest results.
    Con 24% (-3)
    Lab 44% (+1)
    Lib Dem 8% (-1)
    Reform 12% (-)
    SNP 3% (-)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 3% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th-29th April 2024
    Sample: 1,577 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th-22nd April 2024)

    Let the endless overanalyses of a MOE shift commence...


    Or not.
    Maybe Rishi isn't calling the election this week after all!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Anyway a short excursion to calmer waters.

    Mentalists: You know who are the worst antisemites?

    Sane people: Who?

    Mentalists: Jews!



    https://x.com/realzoestrimpel/status/1784569414249058653?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    (Anti-zionist) Jews don't count.
    Zionist lives matter, fck the rest of ye.
    Talking about Israel, Gaza and the Jews seems to be your happy place.
    It seems to be your unhappy place. Best get back to your 20th post on how nobody cares about Scotland, with a bit of added no one should care about the Gazans,
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    Scott_xP said:

    @paulhutcheon

    Two Swinney options circulating: caretaker, taking SNP through to GE; full-time leader

    How desperate can they get
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    GIN1138 said:

    Humza really did turn out to be Useless, didn't he?

    He has always been Useless
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061

    Nigelb said:

    The FT article itself is paywalled, but if Tim Harford is representative of their columnists, then it's not worth paying for.

    I've studied the history of solar energy and it never once occured to me that people might think that the technology would get cheaper with time by itself without mass production. What a bizarre belief
    https://twitter.com/MaxJerneck/status/1784594856104399167

    Wasn't that essentially the position of Bjorn Lomborg and others, that we shouldn't have spent anything on renewable energy at the time (20 ish years ago), but waited until they were cheaper? The implicit assumption being that the technology would become magically cheaper without any investment in it.
    Yes, and they are fncking idiots.
    One of the prime reasons China dominates renewables industrial production is they committed to it, and kept on at it.

    Similarly Korea and Taiwan came to dominate high end chip manufacturing by starting at the low end, and learning from doing, and continuing to do.

    The machines for the critical technology (EUV lithography) for bleeding edge chip manufacturing are made in Europe, but the only company there, still just about in the high end fab game, is Intel.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    Scott_xP said:

    @DeltapollUK
    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead widens to twenty points in our latest results.
    Con 24% (-3)
    Lab 44% (+1)
    Lib Dem 8% (-1)
    Reform 12% (-)
    SNP 3% (-)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 3% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th-29th April 2024
    Sample: 1,577 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th-22nd April 2024)

    Let the endless overanalyses of a MOE shift commence...


    Or not.
    Can I be the first !

    Agreed it’s likely just MOE . But I think it’s safe to say that there’s no sign of a Tory bounce after Sunaks alleged good week .

    Redfield and Wilton to come at 5pm . Last weeks Tory share was 20% which with YouGov seems to be the two pollsters which often have the lowest share for them .
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,678

    Anyway a short excursion to calmer waters.

    Mentalists: You know who are the worst antisemites?

    Sane people: Who?

    Mentalists: Jews!




    https://x.com/realzoestrimpel/status/1784569414249058653?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    I voted Remain and never became a fanatical Leaver. But it seems that being outside the EU – even for a month – has saved thousands of British lives.

    What's that all about? Genuinely curious.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    viewcode said:

    How gender wars can go badly:

    The US - where debate is more polarised - is going in the opposite direction to the UK on gender identity ideology. UN expert @UNSRVAW says that redefining sex as gender identity in Title IX will increase the risk of male violence against women and girls....

    It's a tragedy to see politicians on the left - in this case the Biden administration - collude in the erosion of women's protections against sex discrimination and single-sex spaces


    https://x.com/soniasodha/status/1784929745450250251

    Different countries. The number of elected positions in the US is dramatically larger in the UK (famously, "dog-catcher" is elected) and anti-trans sentiment is focussed via them. And, since wherever there are elections there are parties, it becomes a partisan issue. Information can be gathered via open meetings, hearings, election pitches, etc, and can be tracked and visualised.

    In the UK, which has more non-elected state institutions involved in everyday life, such sentiment is reflected in bureaucracy (eg all prospective transitioners funnelled into specialist clinics, which inevitably develop long queues as supply is restricted), which is less visible. Information-gatherers have to resort to FOI requests or guesswork.
    PB putrid pundit alert - IIRC there is NO jurisdiction in the USA where "dogcatcher" is currently an elected office.

    The phrase (with variants) "He couldn't get himself elected dogcatcher" being apocryphal, and more comic say than, "he couldn't get himself elected as [for example] local constable" which IS an elected office in some states.

    Aside from that, your first paragraph is pretty much spot on. Though there ARE many offices from sea to shining sea that are officially non-partisan, for example most city council positions (such as in Seattle and other WA cities and towns) and the unicameral Nebraska state legislature.

    However, there is quite often (but not necessarily) a partisan dimension to these non-partisan offices.

    BTW, yours truly is (currently anyway) an elected "Precinct Committee Officer (aka PCO) for the Democratic Party, a position (along with Republican PCO) that is elected via primary election ballot every two years (including this August). However, only CONTESTED races for PCO (one major party or the other) are actually on the ballot; uncontested PCO candidates are deemed elected, as a way of reducing the clutter on primary ballots AND saving counties money re: ballot printing (no need for separate ballot styles for individual precincts).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,952
    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    WILL SOMEBODY PLEASE MAKE THIS WHOLE WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN TO SCOTLAND THING GO AWAY.

    No one cares ffs.

    I think you might be on the wrong blogsite if you're not interested in Scottish politics.
    It is just a conceit. Give them their government and some incidental toys to play with. And next thing you know people think it's important.

    I come to PB for the bold, important, geo-political events of our day. That and the restaurant recommendations.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    BBC:

    Three major lenders have announced they will raise rates on new fixed deal mortgages on Tuesday.

    Nationwide, Santander and NatWest will push up the cost of new deals as uncertainty remains over lending costs.

    They follow various rivals who lifted their rates last week.

    Expectations of the extent and speed of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England have been scaled back, prompting the changes.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,952

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Anyway a short excursion to calmer waters.

    Mentalists: You know who are the worst antisemites?

    Sane people: Who?

    Mentalists: Jews!



    https://x.com/realzoestrimpel/status/1784569414249058653?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    (Anti-zionist) Jews don't count.
    Zionist lives matter, fck the rest of ye.
    Talking about Israel, Gaza and the Jews seems to be your happy place.
    It seems to be your unhappy place. Best get back to your 20th post on how nobody cares about Scotland, with a bit of added no one should care about the Gazans,
    Nobody cares about Scotland. Because I point it out doesn't mean that I care.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    Taz said:

    Useless speaking. Voice out of sync on the BBC feed. Piss poor from the technical side.

    If BBC Scotland then BAU
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311

    Scott_xP said:

    @blairmcdougall

    If Swinney takes over it is an acknowledgment that the SNP is headed for significant losses. A year ago he said he’d been trying to step down front the frontline since 2016. A new leader would immediately face disaster, Swinney is expendable as he’s already resigned.

    There are other explanations. Everyone can see that he's a temporary leader, and so it gives the SNP time to work out who should hear them for the long term, rather than making the decision in a hurry and an atmosphere of crisis.
    No chance , he is a total loser and would be a disaster.
    TOPPING said:

    WILL SOMEBODY PLEASE MAKE THIS WHOLE WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN TO SCOTLAND THING GO AWAY.

    No one cares ffs.

    Speak for yourself Topping , we are plagued daily with English shite so good that you get a small dose of what we get incessantly.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950

    Coronation incoming:

    Understand one potential frontrunner Neil Gray is telling colleagues he wants John Swinney to stand as leader of the SNP and that's his first choice to replace Humza Yousaf.

    https://x.com/conor_matchett/status/1784941313663664360

    https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2024/04/john-swinney-as-leader-we-tried-that-it.html?m=1
    If the SNP are in need of guidance there’s certainly a wealth of it out there from folk not in the SNP.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Good riddance and fuck off to Humza “WHITE!!” Yousaf. An odious race baiter and a piece of dreck

    I thought as a self confessed racist apparently in fear of being cancelled that you would have some sympathy?
    Tut tut

    Also *points and sniggers at your party and cause*
    Since you hate your party and think your main 'cause', the UK, is a shithole, there's quite a lot of sniggering going on.
    Er, they’re really not “my party” not remotely. And absolutely not in the way the SNP is yours

    As for “shit-hole” hmm sometimes. Britain can be dreary and yet it can also be sublime. France is definitely more beautiful; British people are funnier; France has nicer towns; we have the English language. England also owns Scotland with its fabulous islands and mountains so yah boo sucks to France

    England 'owns' Scotland? Damn good job Malc's not around!
    here now OKC and he speaks the truth unfortunately for us.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,067

    PB putrid pundit alert - IIRC there is NO jurisdiction in the USA where "dogcatcher" is currently an elected office.

    Dammit! That was one of my favourite fact about the United States!

    I am vexed :(

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    Scott_xP said:

    @JohnRentoul

    Ladbrokes news release: BETTING SUSPENDED on Humza Yousaf replacement after flood of bets on John Swinney


    I took some of the 8/1 that was on offer this morning

    SNP need to get funds from somewhere, where better than the bookies.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    BBC:

    Three major lenders have announced they will raise rates on new fixed deal mortgages on Tuesday.

    Nationwide, Santander and NatWest will push up the cost of new deals as uncertainty remains over lending costs.

    They follow various rivals who lifted their rates last week.

    Expectations of the extent and speed of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England have been scaled back, prompting the changes.

    Lucky for Sunak this isn’t getting more media attention .
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    I might do the next thread on why the SNP should make Nicola Sturgeon the replacement for Humza Yousaf.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @paulhutcheon

    Two Swinney options circulating: caretaker, taking SNP through to GE; full-time leader

    How desperate can they get
    How many other options do they have that doesn’t create an immediate Scottish Parliament election?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    edited April 29
    I'd forgotten that John Swinney was leader between 2000 and 2004.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214
    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DeltapollUK
    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead widens to twenty points in our latest results.
    Con 24% (-3)
    Lab 44% (+1)
    Lib Dem 8% (-1)
    Reform 12% (-)
    SNP 3% (-)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 3% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th-29th April 2024
    Sample: 1,577 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th-22nd April 2024)

    Let the endless overanalyses of a MOE shift commence...


    Or not.
    Can I be the first !

    Agreed it’s likely just MOE . But I think it’s safe to say that there’s no sign of a Tory bounce after Sunaks alleged good week .

    Redfield and Wilton to come at 5pm . Last weeks Tory share was 20% which with YouGov seems to be the two pollsters which often have the lowest share for them .
    If it's been another week where nothing happens in the polls, that's another good week for Starmer.

    Because unless something happens before the election, Sunak is headed for the sort of experience that will cause stepmoms the world over to avert their eyes and say eew... that's gross.

    Maybe the NI cut filtering into payslips as we speak will be the turning point.

    Or maybe not.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,952
    malcolmg said:

    Speak for yourself Topping , we are plagued daily with English shite so good that you get a small dose of what we get incessantly.

    Have you managed to get over there to do your bit for the Auld Alliance yet Malc?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    I might do the next thread on why the SNP should make Nicola Sturgeon the replacement for Humza Yousaf.

    Hmm McPlod might not have finished with her yet..
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950

    Anyway a short excursion to calmer waters.

    Mentalists: You know who are the worst antisemites?

    Sane people: Who?

    Mentalists: Jews!




    https://x.com/realzoestrimpel/status/1784569414249058653?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    I voted Remain and never became a fanatical Leaver. But it seems that being outside the EU – even for a month – has saved thousands of British lives.

    What's that all about? Genuinely curious.
    Where was that nugget? I imagine it’s more proud independent British vaccine of Oxford bs.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Andy_JS said:

    I'd forgotten that John Swinney was leader between 2000 and 2004.

    So has John Swinney
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366
    nico679 said:

    BBC:

    Three major lenders have announced they will raise rates on new fixed deal mortgages on Tuesday.

    Nationwide, Santander and NatWest will push up the cost of new deals as uncertainty remains over lending costs.

    They follow various rivals who lifted their rates last week.

    Expectations of the extent and speed of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England have been scaled back, prompting the changes.

    Lucky for Sunak this isn’t getting more media attention .
    Mortgage rates are on their way up this week - was finalizing twin A’s house purchase and it was mentioned that most lenders are pulling rates tonight / tomorrow with new ones due later this week
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The "anti-stitch up" faction:

    As Humza, who should be thanked for his service, will remain FM until we have a new leader there is no need for an unseemly rush by the (old) boys club to stitch up the succession. The leader of the SNP should be chosen by our members not by men in grey suits

    https://x.com/joannaccherry/status/1784946668569301280

    Boring - I thought it was "grey kilts" - or is that just His Lordship The Fat Crofter?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    WILL SOMEBODY PLEASE MAKE THIS WHOLE WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN TO SCOTLAND THING GO AWAY.

    No one cares ffs.

    I care deeply about Scotland.

    I'm a Unionist.
    Don't be absurd. Literally no one else cares. You and Big G that's it.
    And you wonder why so many Scots want independence.
    And so many don't. The majority, even. They recognise that Scotland is a part of the United Kingdom. Would we be having this discussion if the leader of Hartlepool council suddenly stepped down.
    Not a majority. A minority, as with the Yessers. Which lot is bigger varies from week to week.
    A majority as of the only time anyone has been asked in the past 20 years so I'll go with a majority.

    The rest is conjecture.
    You’re doing a grand job on the no one cares front.
    Thanks, much appreciated. For some reason everyone else is banging on about it as though it is an important event.
    More important than the Westminster shite where one corrupt lost are going to swap again with the other corrupt lot.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    viewcode said:

    PB putrid pundit alert - IIRC there is NO jurisdiction in the USA where "dogcatcher" is currently an elected office.

    Dammit! That was one of my favourite fact about the United States!

    I am vexed :(

    Perhaps your vexation will be mitigated, in knowing that there ARE elected offices in parts of USA, where "animal control" is one of the duties of the job?

    So they are technically "dog catchers" although you're NOT likely to see the Hon. Whomever personally rounding up rogue canines!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,067
    viewcode said:

    PB putrid pundit alert - IIRC there is NO jurisdiction in the USA where "dogcatcher" is currently an elected office.

    Dammit! That was one of my favourite fact about the United States!

    I am vexed :(

    Please tell me you still have unincorporated areas?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311

    If Swinney runs, he feels like the winning candidate to me*.

    He probably keeps the Greens on side.

    He doesn’t rock the boat too much within the party.

    *but again, I do think this is a bit of an awkward one to predict. You’re going to have all sorts of external influence about who members should
    choose based on the parliamentary arithmetic etc, and I’m not sure how that will swing things.

    I would be amazed if he ran for leader rather than took it on as temporary caretaker. The only motive for the former would be to take the hit for electoral defeat and leave a cleanish sheet for his successor, and I don't think even he's that selfless.

    Contra Unionist sneering he's quite popular in the party and seen as honourable so would work as a calming caretaker. I believe his wife has MS so I guess he would be doing a lot of consulting with her before taking on all the shite that goes with being even a temporary leader.
    The SNP, like the Tories, are in a position where they probably need to regroup and decide whether they want to stay on the left, aligned with the Greens and be a party of devolution with an aspiration of independence at some specified time in the future (the Sturgeon continuity wing), move towards the centre with independence more to the fore and social issues less prominent (the Forbes wing) or become a purely independence party as they once were. As an SNP member, even I recognise that sometimes parties are in power too long and end up taken over by time servers, as happened to Scottish Labour.
    It is all the labour losers that swapped troughs when they got kicked out by SNP.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    Andy_JS said:

    I'd forgotten that John Swinney was leader between 2000 and 2004.

    He made Hague and IDS look like they were giants.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    TOPPING said:

    malcolmg said:

    Speak for yourself Topping , we are plagued daily with English shite so good that you get a small dose of what we get incessantly.

    Have you managed to get over there to do your bit for the Auld Alliance yet Malc?
    Topping , unfortunately now back at work , so delayed till later in year now
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    Related to the topic: It is not much talked about, but some nations would be better off for their people if the world were permanently 2 or 3 degrees warmer. (Canada, for instance.)

    Would Scotland be one of them? That seems likely to me. But -- correct me if I am wrong -- I assume the Greens in Scotland are very much opposed to global warming.

    Which, if true, requires an explanation.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    An unsympathetic take:

    Humza Yousaf has resigned as First Minister of Scotland.

    Here are his greatest achievements in office:

    - He is the first SNP First Minister to not get arrested.

    - He was the most reported person to Police Scotland for Hate Crimes.


    https://x.com/AndreasKoureas_/status/1784959687537881388

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,127
    Nigelb said:

    The FT article itself is paywalled, but if Tim Harford is representative of their columnists, then it's not worth paying for.

    I've studied the history of solar energy and it never once occured to me that people might think that the technology would get cheaper with time by itself without mass production. What a bizarre belief
    https://twitter.com/MaxJerneck/status/1784594856104399167

    Tim Hartford is a generally excellent commentator, and his book - The Undercover Economist - is well worth reading.

    This is not his best article, but the quoting is partial. He's merely making the point that there's nothing extrinsic that causes production costs to decline, merely that the more factories there are, and the more competition there is, the more efficiencies that will be able to be squeezed out.

    And, for what it's worth, people regularly did use the phrase "Moore's law" with regards to solar costs. So the point is not entirely without merit (except for the point that Moore's law itself only existed because of the price elasticity of demand for semiconductors.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    Did anyone call out this bullshit from Trump's lawyer last week ?
    The SC Justices didn't seem to pick it up.

    https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/4624601-supreme-court-donald-trump-presidenital-immunity-hypocrisy-oral-arguments/
    ...Then Sauer added, “(T)hey did discuss and consider what would be the checks on the presidency. And they did not say, oh, we need to have criminal prosecution. Right there at the Constitutional Convention, Benjamin Franklin says, we don’t have that. That’s not an option. Everybody cried out against that as unconstitutional.“ ..

    The Franklin quote he 'cited' was a comment in respect of the trial of King Charles I.
    The constitutionality of that was a rather different matter than the prosecution of a President - who is emphatically not supposed to be a king.


  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 29

    Related to the topic: It is not much talked about, but some nations would be better off for their people if the world were permanently 2 or 3 degrees warmer. (Canada, for instance.)

    Would Scotland be one of them? That seems likely to me. But -- correct me if I am wrong -- I assume the Greens in Scotland are very much opposed to global warming.

    Which, if true, requires an explanation.

    French Champagne houses are buying up Sussex and Kent vineyards like crazy

    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/28/climate/new-year-champagne-weather-threat-climate/index.html
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    edited April 29
    Nigelb said:

    The FT article itself is paywalled, but if Tim Harford is representative of their columnists, then it's not worth paying for.

    I've studied the history of solar energy and it never once occured to me that people might think that the technology would get cheaper with time by itself without mass production. What a bizarre belief
    https://twitter.com/MaxJerneck/status/1784594856104399167

    Tim Harford is one the best writers out there IMO, and his Radio 4 programme More or Less is pretty good as well. What's the problem with this headline?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,127

    Related to the topic: It is not much talked about, but some nations would be better off for their people if the world were permanently 2 or 3 degrees warmer. (Canada, for instance.)

    Would Scotland be one of them? That seems likely to me. But -- correct me if I am wrong -- I assume the Greens in Scotland are very much opposed to global warming.

    Which, if true, requires an explanation.

    The answer is that Scotland (and the rest of the UK) would almost certainly not be better off in a warmer world, while Canada almost certainly would be.

    The UK is much warmer than it's latitude would suggest. It's a long way north of not just New York, but Boston too. Indeed, London is north of 90% of Canada's population, and Edinburgh is north of more than 95% of it.

    And this is thanks to the Gulf Stream. Take than warm water away, and the UK and Scotland will get much colder, even if the earth itself is meaningfully warmer.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    rcs1000 said:

    Related to the topic: It is not much talked about, but some nations would be better off for their people if the world were permanently 2 or 3 degrees warmer. (Canada, for instance.)

    Would Scotland be one of them? That seems likely to me. But -- correct me if I am wrong -- I assume the Greens in Scotland are very much opposed to global warming.

    Which, if true, requires an explanation.

    The answer is that Scotland (and the rest of the UK) would almost certainly not be better off in a warmer world, while Canada almost certainly would be.

    The UK is much warmer than it's latitude would suggest. It's a long way north of not just New York, but Boston too. Indeed, London is north of 90% of Canada's population, and Edinburgh is north of more than 95% of it.

    And this is thanks to the Gulf Stream. Take than warm water away, and the UK and Scotland will get much colder, even if the earth itself is meaningfully warmer.
    Fingers crossed the Gulf Stream doesn't piss off then.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366
    edited April 29
    Royal Mail suspends fines for letters received with 'counterfeit' barcoded stamps while it develops an app so customers can check themselves if a stamp is real.

    https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/24285908.royal-mail-pause-5-fines-counterfeit-stamp-fears/?ref=rss
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986
    @TheNewsAgents

    💥@StephenFlynnSNP is backing @JohnSwinney for the SNP leadership!

    SNP Westminster leader tells @TheNewsAgents: "there's only one person with the experience to do the job, one person to unite the party... I like to think that person is Swinney, I encourage him to stand"…

    @KevinASchofield

    SNP high-ups clearly desperate to avoid a leadership contest. Swinney now looks like a stick-on for first minister - assuming he wants it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362
    malcolmg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd forgotten that John Swinney was leader between 2000 and 2004.

    He made Hague and IDS look like they were giants.
    Good afternoon Malc, hope all is good with you

    That is very withering and damning but makes me laugh.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,127
    edited April 29

    viewcode said:

    How gender wars can go badly:

    The US - where debate is more polarised - is going in the opposite direction to the UK on gender identity ideology. UN expert @UNSRVAW says that redefining sex as gender identity in Title IX will increase the risk of male violence against women and girls....

    It's a tragedy to see politicians on the left - in this case the Biden administration - collude in the erosion of women's protections against sex discrimination and single-sex spaces


    https://x.com/soniasodha/status/1784929745450250251

    Different countries. The number of elected positions in the US is dramatically larger in the UK (famously, "dog-catcher" is elected) and anti-trans sentiment is focussed via them. And, since wherever there are elections there are parties, it becomes a partisan issue. Information can be gathered via open meetings, hearings, election pitches, etc, and can be tracked and visualised.

    In the UK, which has more non-elected state institutions involved in everyday life, such sentiment is reflected in bureaucracy (eg all prospective transitioners funnelled into specialist clinics, which inevitably develop long queues as supply is restricted), which is less visible. Information-gatherers have to resort to FOI requests or guesswork.
    PB putrid pundit alert - IIRC there is NO jurisdiction in the USA where "dogcatcher" is currently an elected office.

    The phrase (with variants) "He couldn't get himself elected dogcatcher" being apocryphal, and more comic say than, "he couldn't get himself elected as [for example] local constable" which IS an elected office in some states.

    Aside from that, your first paragraph is pretty much spot on. Though there ARE many offices from sea to shining sea that are officially non-partisan, for example most city council positions (such as in Seattle and other WA cities and towns) and the unicameral Nebraska state legislature.

    However, there is quite often (but not necessarily) a partisan dimension to these non-partisan offices.

    BTW, yours truly is (currently anyway) an elected "Precinct Committee Officer (aka PCO) for the Democratic Party, a position (along with Republican PCO) that is elected via primary election ballot every two years (including this August). However, only CONTESTED races for PCO (one major party or the other) are actually on the ballot; uncontested PCO candidates are deemed elected, as a way of reducing the clutter on primary ballots AND saving counties money re: ballot printing (no need for separate ballot styles for individual precincts).
    Ahem:

    Duxbury, Vermont

    See: https://www.npr.org/2018/04/07/600482792/you-couldn-t-get-elected-dogcatcher-no-seriously
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Related to the topic: It is not much talked about, but some nations would be better off for their people if the world were permanently 2 or 3 degrees warmer. (Canada, for instance.)

    Would Scotland be one of them? That seems likely to me. But -- correct me if I am wrong -- I assume the Greens in Scotland are very much opposed to global warming.

    Which, if true, requires an explanation.

    The problem isn't so much the hundreds of millions of us who live in a warmer north.

    It will be the billions who live in the uninhabitable equatorial regions.

    They'll move.

    Guess where?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Way Off Topic - This morning during 20-block walk home from my regular coffee shop here in Seattle, amused myself by playing a game we used to enjoy as a kid on loooooooong road trips: looking for out-of-state auto license plates.

    In USA each state is responsible for designing, manufacturing (often in state prisons) and issuing such plates. Same is true for Canadian provinces and (I think) Mexican states. So each state/province has different designs with different colors and mottoes; for example New Hampshire's famous "Live Free or Die". Which designs and colors changing fairly frequently, plus most states now offer specialty plates (for extra price) either "personalized" (instead of standard alpha-numeric) or plates designed for specific groups such as veterans or whatever.

    As kids the game was to spot more different state plates than the competition, typically your big brother or little sister (or visa versa).

    This morning spotted plates from Colorado (fairly common out here), Florida (not uncommon), North Dakota (ditto) and Alabama (rare to see in WA). Also saw two WA "specialty" plates, one for fans of Seattle Seahawks football team, another for musicians.

    Very common here to see plates from California also our neighbors Oregon, Idaho and . . . wait for it . . . British Columbia.

    Always gives me a thrill to see a license plate from Alaska! AND other day saw a Hawai'i plate!! Have also spotted plates from Guam!!! And years ago, down in Baton Rouge, actually saw a [Panama] Canal Zone plate!!!!

    And best is seeing plate from my old home state of West Virginia, quite rare here.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362
    nico679 said:

    BBC:

    Three major lenders have announced they will raise rates on new fixed deal mortgages on Tuesday.

    Nationwide, Santander and NatWest will push up the cost of new deals as uncertainty remains over lending costs.

    They follow various rivals who lifted their rates last week.

    Expectations of the extent and speed of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England have been scaled back, prompting the changes.

    Lucky for Sunak this isn’t getting more media attention .
    If it does Sunak will have to suck it up. He was happy to take the credit for inflation falling when it was little to do with him. His actions, as chancellor, helped fuel it.

    Ironic really the only one of his five pledges he met was nothing to do with him or his actions.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354

    Related to the topic: It is not much talked about, but some nations would be better off for their people if the world were permanently 2 or 3 degrees warmer. (Canada, for instance.)

    Would Scotland be one of them? That seems likely to me. But -- correct me if I am wrong -- I assume the Greens in Scotland are very much opposed to global warming.

    Which, if true, requires an explanation.

    If you look at the geography of a country in isolation, then, yes, there are places that would benefit from being warmer. For Scotland it is complicated by the consequences of a possible collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current. This would make Scottish winters a lot colder, despite overall global warming.

    More generally, while temperature changes are relatively easy to predict, changes in the pattern of rainfall are much harder. But these are more important for agriculture.

    And even more generally, it's silly to look at these things in isolation. If global warming trashes agriculture in China, or the Indian Monsoon fails, then the global consequences and their effects on Scotland, would dwarf any local benefit Scotland might experience due to being a bit warmer.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    In the US, some (me included) see many Greens as motivated by what can be best understood as religious views. Or, if you want to be mean about it, anti-science superstition.

    (If you are interested in a book-length discussion of that argument, here's a good place to start: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Encounters_with_the_Archdruid )
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362

    BBC:

    Three major lenders have announced they will raise rates on new fixed deal mortgages on Tuesday.

    Nationwide, Santander and NatWest will push up the cost of new deals as uncertainty remains over lending costs.

    They follow various rivals who lifted their rates last week.

    Expectations of the extent and speed of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England have been scaled back, prompting the changes.

    I have every confidence, at the same time, savings rates will go up proportionally.........
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    How gender wars can go badly:

    The US - where debate is more polarised - is going in the opposite direction to the UK on gender identity ideology. UN expert @UNSRVAW says that redefining sex as gender identity in Title IX will increase the risk of male violence against women and girls....

    It's a tragedy to see politicians on the left - in this case the Biden administration - collude in the erosion of women's protections against sex discrimination and single-sex spaces


    https://x.com/soniasodha/status/1784929745450250251

    Different countries. The number of elected positions in the US is dramatically larger in the UK (famously, "dog-catcher" is elected) and anti-trans sentiment is focussed via them. And, since wherever there are elections there are parties, it becomes a partisan issue. Information can be gathered via open meetings, hearings, election pitches, etc, and can be tracked and visualised.

    In the UK, which has more non-elected state institutions involved in everyday life, such sentiment is reflected in bureaucracy (eg all prospective transitioners funnelled into specialist clinics, which inevitably develop long queues as supply is restricted), which is less visible. Information-gatherers have to resort to FOI requests or guesswork.
    PB putrid pundit alert - IIRC there is NO jurisdiction in the USA where "dogcatcher" is currently an elected office.

    The phrase (with variants) "He couldn't get himself elected dogcatcher" being apocryphal, and more comic say than, "he couldn't get himself elected as [for example] local constable" which IS an elected office in some states.

    Aside from that, your first paragraph is pretty much spot on. Though there ARE many offices from sea to shining sea that are officially non-partisan, for example most city council positions (such as in Seattle and other WA cities and towns) and the unicameral Nebraska state legislature.

    However, there is quite often (but not necessarily) a partisan dimension to these non-partisan offices.

    BTW, yours truly is (currently anyway) an elected "Precinct Committee Officer (aka PCO) for the Democratic Party, a position (along with Republican PCO) that is elected via primary election ballot every two years (including this August). However, only CONTESTED races for PCO (one major party or the other) are actually on the ballot; uncontested PCO candidates are deemed elected, as a way of reducing the clutter on primary ballots AND saving counties money re: ballot printing (no need for separate ballot styles for individual precincts).
    Ahem:

    Duxbury, Vermont

    See: https://www.npr.org/2018/04/07/600482792/you-couldn-t-get-elected-dogcatcher-no-seriously
    I stand (for the first time?) corrected - thanks!

    Which is why I wrote "IIRC" because I suspected there might be some exception . . . with some New England town being a possibly exceptional, in this sense anyway.

    So viewpoint is vindicated!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311

    Related to the topic: It is not much talked about, but some nations would be better off for their people if the world were permanently 2 or 3 degrees warmer. (Canada, for instance.)

    Would Scotland be one of them? That seems likely to me. But -- correct me if I am wrong -- I assume the Greens in Scotland are very much opposed to global warming.

    Which, if true, requires an explanation.

    It would be very nice indeed. The misnamed Greens are a bunch of troughers with weird identity politics as their main aim, the leaders at least. They are nutters and stupid with it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd forgotten that John Swinney was leader between 2000 and 2004.

    He made Hague and IDS look like they were giants.
    Good afternoon Malc, hope all is good with you

    That is very withering and damning but makes me laugh.
    Hello Taz, not bad, heavy head cold or covid but surviving. He was Sturgeon's bag man and we need shot of the lot of that rotten bunch ASAP.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986
    @euanmccolm

    is it really going to go salmond, swinney, sturgeon, salmond, sturgeon, yousaf swinney? what does it say about the quality of the party’s representatives if the SNP’s seven Holyrood leaders are drawn from a pool of four people.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DeltapollUK
    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead widens to twenty points in our latest results.
    Con 24% (-3)
    Lab 44% (+1)
    Lib Dem 8% (-1)
    Reform 12% (-)
    SNP 3% (-)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 3% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th-29th April 2024
    Sample: 1,577 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th-22nd April 2024)

    Let the endless overanalyses of a MOE shift commence...


    Or not.
    Can I be the first !

    Agreed it’s likely just MOE . But I think it’s safe to say that there’s no sign of a Tory bounce after Sunaks alleged good week .

    Redfield and Wilton to come at 5pm . Last weeks Tory share was 20% which with YouGov seems to be the two pollsters which often have the lowest share for them .
    In what way was it a 'good week'? I must have missed that somehow.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    PB putrid pundit alert - IIRC there is NO jurisdiction in the USA where "dogcatcher" is currently an elected office.

    Dammit! That was one of my favourite fact about the United States!

    I am vexed :(

    Please tell me you still have unincorporated areas?
    Plenty. Indeed, most of the land mass of the USA is comprised of turf (mostly rural but NOT always) that is NOT part of any city or town.

    However, note that every state has COUNTY governments (Parishes in Louisiana, and Boroughs in Alaska) that provide local government jurisdiction & services (of varying degrees) for residents of unincorporated areas.

    Further note that, in USA, there are fifty different ways (at least) of organizing (in one sense anyway) local government.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The FT article itself is paywalled, but if Tim Harford is representative of their columnists, then it's not worth paying for.

    I've studied the history of solar energy and it never once occured to me that people might think that the technology would get cheaper with time by itself without mass production. What a bizarre belief
    https://twitter.com/MaxJerneck/status/1784594856104399167

    Tim Hartford is a generally excellent commentator, and his book - The Undercover Economist - is well worth reading.

    This is not his best article, but the quoting is partial. He's merely making the point that there's nothing extrinsic that causes production costs to decline, merely that the more factories there are, and the more competition there is, the more efficiencies that will be able to be squeezed out.

    And, for what it's worth, people regularly did use the phrase "Moore's Law" with regards to solar costs. So the point is not entirely without merit (except for the point that Moore's law itself only existed because of the price elasticity of demand for semiconductors.)
    That's missing the point.

    The article posits an opposition between Moore's Law and Wright's Law, which doesn't really exist. They're entirely complementary - though Moore's Law is more of an observation about a particular technology than a mechanistic explanation, like Wright's Law.

    Absolutely the description gets used in respect of solar panel production (and that's not entirely wrong, though the rate of improvement is rather different).
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,758
    eek said:

    Royal Mail suspends fines for letters received with 'counterfeit' barcoded stamps while it develops an app so customers can check themselves if a stamp is real.

    https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/24285908.royal-mail-pause-5-fines-counterfeit-stamp-fears/?ref=rss

    I wonder what the historical rates of stamp forgery (in order to use postal services) have been? It's such a shame that the collectability of stamps has been demolished entirely really (by forgeries and the activities of the Royal Mail and others). It was quite fun when I was 12.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Oh, it's just a woman, what would she know?

    There is no doubt that not understanding the impact of the gender recognition reforms, has now brought down two SNP first ministers, it's entirely reasonable for the candidates this time around to spell out exactly where they stand on Cass & other areas of concern.

    https://x.com/holyroodmandy/status/1784964002881183832
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    The FT article itself is paywalled, but if Tim Harford is representative of their columnists, then it's not worth paying for.

    I've studied the history of solar energy and it never once occured to me that people might think that the technology would get cheaper with time by itself without mass production. What a bizarre belief
    https://twitter.com/MaxJerneck/status/1784594856104399167

    Tim Harford is one the best writers out there IMO, and his Radio 4 programme More or Less is pretty good as well. What's the problem with this headline?
    The problem is with the quoted excerpt from the article.

    (I'm probably being more than a bit unfair to Harford, but it's not a good piece.)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354

    In the US, some (me included) see many Greens as motivated by what can be best understood as religious views. Or, if you want to be mean about it, anti-science superstition.

    (If you are interested in a book-length discussion of that argument, here's a good place to start: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Encounters_with_the_Archdruid )

    I'm sure some are. You find all types of people.

    But I'm a green, and I know lots like me, who come to the issue from a basis of scientific knowledge, and we wouldn't be greens were it not for that.

    As a general point, everyone is motivated by their fundamental beliefs, which may or may not be religious. I'm aware that I have a fundamental belief in most people being reasonable, which is why I have given you a calm response, and not a somewhat ruder one.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,301

    Nigelb said:

    The FT article itself is paywalled, but if Tim Harford is representative of their columnists, then it's not worth paying for.

    I've studied the history of solar energy and it never once occured to me that people might think that the technology would get cheaper with time by itself without mass production. What a bizarre belief
    https://twitter.com/MaxJerneck/status/1784594856104399167

    Wasn't that essentially the position of Bjorn Lomborg and others, that we shouldn't have spent anything on renewable energy at the time (20 ish years ago), but waited until they were cheaper? The implicit assumption being that the technology would become magically cheaper without any investment in it.
    Sounds just like something he would have said. The paradox here is that if nobody buys a new technology then there’s no production experience to drive down production costs, no scale to drive down production costs & no incentive to do the (very expensive) R+D to, guess what, drive down production costs.

    The “prime the pump” idea that government should subsidise new technologies they want to see used widely during the initial rollout & then step back later when (hopefully) prices fall does have real economic foundations.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    edited April 29
    ANOTHER hideous French town

    I’ve had enough of this endless Gallic squalor. TBH


  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,938
    nico679 said:

    BBC:

    Three major lenders have announced they will raise rates on new fixed deal mortgages on Tuesday.

    Nationwide, Santander and NatWest will push up the cost of new deals as uncertainty remains over lending costs.

    They follow various rivals who lifted their rates last week.

    Expectations of the extent and speed of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England have been scaled back, prompting the changes.

    Lucky for Sunak this isn’t getting more media attention .
    I have a five year fix due to expire in the new year and believe me, it's getting lots of my attention. People tend to seek out and focus on news that's relevant to them. Humza. Whoz'he? The mortgage pain I'm about to experience - very much on my radar.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,513
    Scott_xP said:

    @euanmccolm

    is it really going to go salmond, swinney, sturgeon, salmond, sturgeon, yousaf swinney? what does it say about the quality of the party’s representatives if the SNP’s seven Holyrood leaders are drawn from a pool of four people.

    There was no Sturgeon between Swinney and Salmond #2. According to Wikipedia , anyway.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Coronation incoming:

    Understand one potential frontrunner Neil Gray is telling colleagues he wants John Swinney to stand as leader of the SNP and that's his first choice to replace Humza Yousaf.

    https://x.com/conor_matchett/status/1784941313663664360

    https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2024/04/john-swinney-as-leader-we-tried-that-it.html?m=1
    Interesting.

    James for Kate - didn't see that coming!
    James is quite unwoke and loathes the militant trans nonsense. It’s a shame he no longer comments here, he brings a different perspective

    The centre right alba-inclined Nat, but not an insane Pictish hoon like @malcolmg much as we love him
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    rcs1000 said:

    Related to the topic: It is not much talked about, but some nations would be better off for their people if the world were permanently 2 or 3 degrees warmer. (Canada, for instance.)

    Would Scotland be one of them? That seems likely to me. But -- correct me if I am wrong -- I assume the Greens in Scotland are very much opposed to global warming.

    Which, if true, requires an explanation.

    The answer is that Scotland (and the rest of the UK) would almost certainly not be better off in a warmer world, while Canada almost certainly would be.

    The UK is much warmer than it's latitude would suggest. It's a long way north of not just New York, but Boston too. Indeed, London is north of 90% of Canada's population, and Edinburgh is north of more than 95% of it.

    And this is thanks to the Gulf Stream. Take than warm water away, and the UK and Scotland will get much colder, even if the earth itself is meaningfully warmer.
    This was the premise for a novel I read recently, A Winter Grave by Peter May. The mystery itself wasn’t hugely compelling but it was an interesting context.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Omnium said:

    eek said:

    Royal Mail suspends fines for letters received with 'counterfeit' barcoded stamps while it develops an app so customers can check themselves if a stamp is real.

    https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/24285908.royal-mail-pause-5-fines-counterfeit-stamp-fears/?ref=rss

    I wonder what the historical rates of stamp forgery (in order to use postal services) have been? It's such a shame that the collectability of stamps has been demolished entirely really (by forgeries and the activities of the Royal Mail and others). It was quite fun when I was 12.
    Nexus between philately and psephology:

    Several decades ago, there was a VERY close legislative race out on the Olympic Peninsula of WA State, with Democratic incumbent and Republican challenger separated by (IIRC) just two votes

    After the last vote count, the GOPer was ahead by (IIRC) two votes.

    HOWEVER, in one of the counties involved, the local Auditor had the practice, of giving a local Boy Scout troop return absentee ballot envelopes received from local voters temporarily resident in foreign counties, so the boys could collect the stamps.

    At which point, the scouts discovered that there were (IIRC) three envelopes which contained ballots that had NOT (yet) been counted.

    When these ballots were verified (via signature match) and validated, turned out there were THREE more votes for the Democrat . . . who was thus elected by ONE vote margin.

    Several years later, actually met the losing candidate. Who told me her version of the above story; she was VERY gracious about the outcome, which (quite rightly) led to tightening of the procedure for checking allegedly-empty return ballot envelopes.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,758

    Omnium said:

    eek said:

    Royal Mail suspends fines for letters received with 'counterfeit' barcoded stamps while it develops an app so customers can check themselves if a stamp is real.

    https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/24285908.royal-mail-pause-5-fines-counterfeit-stamp-fears/?ref=rss

    I wonder what the historical rates of stamp forgery (in order to use postal services) have been? It's such a shame that the collectability of stamps has been demolished entirely really (by forgeries and the activities of the Royal Mail and others). It was quite fun when I was 12.
    Nexus between philately and psephology:

    Several decades ago, there was a VERY close legislative race out on the Olympic Peninsula of WA State, with Democratic incumbent and Republican challenger separated by (IIRC) just two votes

    After the last vote count, the GOPer was ahead by (IIRC) two votes.

    HOWEVER, in one of the counties involved, the local Auditor had the practice, of giving a local Boy Scout troop return absentee ballot envelopes received from local voters temporarily resident in foreign counties, so the boys could collect the stamps.

    At which point, the scouts discovered that there were (IIRC) three envelopes which contained ballots that had NOT (yet) been counted.

    When these ballots were verified (via signature match) and validated, turned out there were THREE more votes for the Democrat . . . who was thus elected by ONE vote margin.

    Several years later, actually met the losing candidate. Who told me her version of the above story; she was VERY gracious about the outcome, which (quite rightly) led to tightening of the procedure for checking allegedly-empty return ballot envelopes.
    Boy scouts - there's another thing that's been interfered with.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    viewcode said:

    How gender wars can go badly:

    The US - where debate is more polarised - is going in the opposite direction to the UK on gender identity ideology. UN expert @UNSRVAW says that redefining sex as gender identity in Title IX will increase the risk of male violence against women and girls....

    It's a tragedy to see politicians on the left - in this case the Biden administration - collude in the erosion of women's protections against sex discrimination and single-sex spaces


    https://x.com/soniasodha/status/1784929745450250251

    Different countries. The number of elected positions in the US is dramatically larger in the UK (famously, "dog-catcher" is elected) and anti-trans sentiment is focussed via them. And, since wherever there are elections there are parties, it becomes a partisan issue. Information can be gathered via open meetings, hearings, election pitches, etc, and can be tracked and visualised.

    In the UK, which has more non-elected state institutions involved in everyday life, such sentiment is reflected in bureaucracy (eg all prospective transitioners funnelled into specialist clinics, which inevitably develop long queues as supply is restricted), which is less visible. Information-gatherers have to resort to FOI requests or guesswork.
    Fortunately dog-killer, aka Mr Chump's aspirational VP, is not yet elected.

    Though now there is conversation about horse-killer as well.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    Scott_xP said:

    @DeltapollUK
    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead widens to twenty points in our latest results.
    Con 24% (-3)
    Lab 44% (+1)
    Lib Dem 8% (-1)
    Reform 12% (-)
    SNP 3% (-)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 3% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th-29th April 2024
    Sample: 1,577 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th-22nd April 2024)

    Let the endless overanalyses of a MOE shift commence...


    Or not.
    Others from 1% to 3%? Even if that’s 1.4% to 2.6%, it’s notable.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,243

    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DeltapollUK
    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead widens to twenty points in our latest results.
    Con 24% (-3)
    Lab 44% (+1)
    Lib Dem 8% (-1)
    Reform 12% (-)
    SNP 3% (-)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 3% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th-29th April 2024
    Sample: 1,577 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th-22nd April 2024)

    Let the endless overanalyses of a MOE shift commence...


    Or not.
    Can I be the first !

    Agreed it’s likely just MOE . But I think it’s safe to say that there’s no sign of a Tory bounce after Sunaks alleged good week .

    Redfield and Wilton to come at 5pm . Last weeks Tory share was 20% which with YouGov seems to be the two pollsters which often have the lowest share for them .
    In what way was it a 'good week'? I must have missed that somehow.
    He was feted in Warsaw as a giant among men.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Leon said:

    Coronation incoming:

    Understand one potential frontrunner Neil Gray is telling colleagues he wants John Swinney to stand as leader of the SNP and that's his first choice to replace Humza Yousaf.

    https://x.com/conor_matchett/status/1784941313663664360

    https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2024/04/john-swinney-as-leader-we-tried-that-it.html?m=1
    Interesting.

    James for Kate - didn't see that coming!
    James is quite unwoke and loathes the militant trans nonsense. It’s a shame he no longer comments here, he brings a different perspective

    The centre right alba-inclined Nat, but not an insane Pictish hoon like @malcolmg much as we love him
    Yes, what happened to him? He was an excellent poster, as you say. Although I’m not sure he’d describe himself as centre-right. As previously discussed the trans stuff is not a left/right issue: lefties don’t agree with each other on it!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited April 29
    malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    WILL SOMEBODY PLEASE MAKE THIS WHOLE WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN TO SCOTLAND THING GO AWAY.

    No one cares ffs.

    I care deeply about Scotland.

    I'm a Unionist.
    Don't be absurd. Literally no one else cares. You and Big G that's it.
    And you wonder why so many Scots want independence.
    And so many don't. The majority, even. They recognise that Scotland is a part of the United Kingdom. Would we be having this discussion if the leader of Hartlepool council suddenly stepped down.
    Not a majority. A minority, as with the Yessers. Which lot is bigger varies from week to week.
    A majority as of the only time anyone has been asked in the past 20 years so I'll go with a majority.

    The rest is conjecture.
    You’re doing a grand job on the no one cares front.
    Thanks, much appreciated. For some reason everyone else is banging on about it as though it is an important event.
    More important than the Westminster shite where one corrupt lost are going to swap again with the other corrupt lot.
    Yes. At Holyrood you have consistency of corruption in that the current corrupt lot seem unlikely ever to be swapped for anyone else, whatever the level of corruption.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited April 29
    .

    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DeltapollUK
    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead widens to twenty points in our latest results.
    Con 24% (-3)
    Lab 44% (+1)
    Lib Dem 8% (-1)
    Reform 12% (-)
    SNP 3% (-)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 3% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th-29th April 2024
    Sample: 1,577 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th-22nd April 2024)

    Let the endless overanalyses of a MOE shift commence...


    Or not.
    Can I be the first !

    Agreed it’s likely just MOE . But I think it’s safe to say that there’s no sign of a Tory bounce after Sunaks alleged good week .

    Redfield and Wilton to come at 5pm . Last weeks Tory share was 20% which with YouGov seems to be the two pollsters which often have the lowest share for them .
    In what way was it a 'good week'? I must have missed that somehow.
    He got his Rwanda thing through; he met the previous year's inflation target and he said he would increase defence spending. These are the things Sunak mentioned himself so he must be proud of his achievements.

    (I watched the interview with the PM on Sky to see if it was as bad as people said. )
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DeltapollUK
    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead widens to twenty points in our latest results.
    Con 24% (-3)
    Lab 44% (+1)
    Lib Dem 8% (-1)
    Reform 12% (-)
    SNP 3% (-)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 3% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th-29th April 2024
    Sample: 1,577 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th-22nd April 2024)

    Let the endless overanalyses of a MOE shift commence...


    Or not.
    Can I be the first !

    Agreed it’s likely just MOE . But I think it’s safe to say that there’s no sign of a Tory bounce after Sunaks alleged good week .

    Redfield and Wilton to come at 5pm . Last weeks Tory share was 20% which with YouGov seems to be the two pollsters which often have the lowest share for them .
    In what way was it a 'good week'? I must have missed that somehow.
    I used alleged as some political commentators were bigging up his week . I missed it aswell !
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Almost certainly fake - but a bit naughty....



    https://x.com/mathsbyForbes/status/1784926408759754774
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,513
    malcolmg said:

    Related to the topic: It is not much talked about, but some nations would be better off for their people if the world were permanently 2 or 3 degrees warmer. (Canada, for instance.)

    Would Scotland be one of them? That seems likely to me. But -- correct me if I am wrong -- I assume the Greens in Scotland are very much opposed to global warming.

    Which, if true, requires an explanation.

    It would be very nice indeed. The misnamed Greens are a bunch of troughers with weird identity politics as their main aim, the leaders at least. They are nutters and stupid with it.
    No way does Scotland need to be warmer, higher temperature = more midges!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    MattW said:

    viewcode said:

    How gender wars can go badly:

    The US - where debate is more polarised - is going in the opposite direction to the UK on gender identity ideology. UN expert @UNSRVAW says that redefining sex as gender identity in Title IX will increase the risk of male violence against women and girls....

    It's a tragedy to see politicians on the left - in this case the Biden administration - collude in the erosion of women's protections against sex discrimination and single-sex spaces


    https://x.com/soniasodha/status/1784929745450250251

    Different countries. The number of elected positions in the US is dramatically larger in the UK (famously, "dog-catcher" is elected) and anti-trans sentiment is focussed via them. And, since wherever there are elections there are parties, it becomes a partisan issue. Information can be gathered via open meetings, hearings, election pitches, etc, and can be tracked and visualised.

    In the UK, which has more non-elected state institutions involved in everyday life, such sentiment is reflected in bureaucracy (eg all prospective transitioners funnelled into specialist clinics, which inevitably develop long queues as supply is restricted), which is less visible. Information-gatherers have to resort to FOI requests or guesswork.
    Fortunately dog-killer, aka Mr Chump's aspirational VP, is not yet elected.

    Though now there is conversation about horse-killer as well.
    The police might want to do a search of that gravel pit.
    Who knows what's been shot and dumped there.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    Omnium said:

    eek said:

    Royal Mail suspends fines for letters received with 'counterfeit' barcoded stamps while it develops an app so customers can check themselves if a stamp is real.

    https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/24285908.royal-mail-pause-5-fines-counterfeit-stamp-fears/?ref=rss

    I wonder what the historical rates of stamp forgery (in order to use postal services) have been? It's such a shame that the collectability of stamps has been demolished entirely really (by forgeries and the activities of the Royal Mail and others). It was quite fun when I was 12.
    It is an odd reversal, and not much noticed. In about 1963 collecting stamps was something we mostly did, as children, and now I never come across it among them. Does it still exist?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Scott_xP said:

    @euanmccolm

    is it really going to go salmond, swinney, sturgeon, salmond, sturgeon, yousaf swinney? what does it say about the quality of the party’s representatives if the SNP’s seven Holyrood leaders are drawn from a pool of four people.

    Really only three people. Yousaf is irrelevant.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354

    rcs1000 said:

    Related to the topic: It is not much talked about, but some nations would be better off for their people if the world were permanently 2 or 3 degrees warmer. (Canada, for instance.)

    Would Scotland be one of them? That seems likely to me. But -- correct me if I am wrong -- I assume the Greens in Scotland are very much opposed to global warming.

    Which, if true, requires an explanation.

    The answer is that Scotland (and the rest of the UK) would almost certainly not be better off in a warmer world, while Canada almost certainly would be.

    The UK is much warmer than it's latitude would suggest. It's a long way north of not just New York, but Boston too. Indeed, London is north of 90% of Canada's population, and Edinburgh is north of more than 95% of it.

    And this is thanks to the Gulf Stream. Take than warm water away, and the UK and Scotland will get much colder, even if the earth itself is meaningfully warmer.
    This was the premise for a novel I read recently, A Winter Grave by Peter May. The mystery itself wasn’t hugely compelling but it was an interesting context.
    That's just the sort of equivocal review that I like. Thanks.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,067
    edited April 29

    In the US, some (me included) see many Greens as motivated by what can be best understood as religious views. Or, if you want to be mean about it, anti-science superstition.

    (If you are interested in a book-length discussion of that argument, here's a good place to start: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Encounters_with_the_Archdruid )

    I'm sure some are. You find all types of people.

    But I'm a green, and I know lots like me, who come to the issue from a basis of scientific knowledge, and we wouldn't be greens were it not for that.

    As a general point, everyone is motivated by their fundamental beliefs, which may or may not be religious. I'm aware that I have a fundamental belief in most people being reasonable, which is why I have given you a calm response, and not a somewhat ruder one.
    (I'm doing a solarpunk article. Can I ask you to do a pre-read? It's not about solarpunk as a literary medium per se, more where imagined futures fit into the British political space.)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354
    edited April 29
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DeltapollUK
    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead widens to twenty points in our latest results.
    Con 24% (-3)
    Lab 44% (+1)
    Lib Dem 8% (-1)
    Reform 12% (-)
    SNP 3% (-)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 3% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th-29th April 2024
    Sample: 1,577 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th-22nd April 2024)

    Let the endless overanalyses of a MOE shift commence...


    Or not.
    Others from 1% to 3%? Even if that’s 1.4% to 2.6%, it’s notable.
    It could be people wanting to vote for the friendly "Local Conservatives" they've discovered in the local election campaign...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    edited April 29

    Leon said:

    Coronation incoming:

    Understand one potential frontrunner Neil Gray is telling colleagues he wants John Swinney to stand as leader of the SNP and that's his first choice to replace Humza Yousaf.

    https://x.com/conor_matchett/status/1784941313663664360

    https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2024/04/john-swinney-as-leader-we-tried-that-it.html?m=1
    Interesting.

    James for Kate - didn't see that coming!
    James is quite unwoke and loathes the militant trans nonsense. It’s a shame he no longer comments here, he brings a different perspective

    The centre right alba-inclined Nat, but not an insane Pictish hoon like @malcolmg much as we love him
    Yes, what happened to him? He was an excellent poster, as you say. Although I’m not sure he’d describe himself as centre-right. As previously discussed the trans stuff is not a left/right issue: lefties don’t agree with each other on it!
    I’m guessing. I occasionally read his (quite good if necessarily parochial) blog. He seems to have shifted somewhat right as he ages. This is not unknown - but I could be wrong (that IS unknown)

    On the main topic I presume all these big names are coming out for Swinney to avoid Forbes taking the leadership now and 1. Screwing their own chances and/or 2. Horribly splitting the party just before two major elections

    Not sure she’s well advised to seek it now. Whoever leads will suffer two perceived defeats in a row. Forbes is better off letting a caretaker like Swinney absorb the blows then she can rescue and redirect and revive the party in opposition
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,758
    algarkirk said:

    Omnium said:

    eek said:

    Royal Mail suspends fines for letters received with 'counterfeit' barcoded stamps while it develops an app so customers can check themselves if a stamp is real.

    https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/24285908.royal-mail-pause-5-fines-counterfeit-stamp-fears/?ref=rss

    I wonder what the historical rates of stamp forgery (in order to use postal services) have been? It's such a shame that the collectability of stamps has been demolished entirely really (by forgeries and the activities of the Royal Mail and others). It was quite fun when I was 12.
    It is an odd reversal, and not much noticed. In about 1963 collecting stamps was something we mostly did, as children, and now I never come across it among them. Does it still exist?
    Doubt it. People don't get letters now, so there's no chance of the glamour of a colourful stamp saying 'British America' on it with the Queen's head.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Oh good grief! Another woman!

    In an emotional mea culpa worthy of any soap opera, Humza Yousaf said he had underestimated the level of hurt he had inflicted on his erstwhile partners in government, former Scottish Green ministers Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater, when he threw them out of Bute House, and government, last week.

    But as he was preparing his resignation speech, a man pled guilty to threatening women’s rights campaigner and author JK Rowling, and was warned he faces jail when he is sentenced in June. He sent an audio message to Rowling in Gaelic saying: “I am going to kill JK Rowling with a big hammer. JK Rowling is very horrible and I hate her so much.” Sadly, this is just one example of the hatred that women like Rowling have endured in recent years for standing up for their rights.

    Yet Yousaf did not mention women in his speech. He spoke about Gaza, the toll on his physical and mental health, his family. He referred to “toxic” culture wars, but did not mention the one issue that has divided his party, divided the parliament, and led, in part, to his downfall, just as it contributed to Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation only last year: women’s rights and the SNP’s stubborn adherence to trans ideology.


    https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/humza-yousafs-adherence-to-trans-ideology-played-a-part-in-his-political-demise-will-next-snp-leader-stand-up-for-reality-susan-dalgety-4609309

    Why won't they just keep quiet?

    Don't they know their place?
This discussion has been closed.