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Street’s ahead – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,689
    Selebian said:

    Dunno, my brother is just in tail end of gen X (I'm early millennial) and we're chalk and cheese. I'm measured, sensible, avocado on toast kind of guy (until I discovered the environmental impact of avocado and decided to buy a house instead). He's a walking celebration of binge drinking and drug taking, popular culture that didn't take itself too seriously etc. At least, he's a Chartered Accountant, so I assume it follows that all that is true? :wink:
    Arguably the development of personal computer, followed by the internet, and then smartphones account for more sharply delineated, and worldwide generational divides in a way which was previously only true of global wars ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,756
    kinabalu said:

    Quite a passage, isn't it. That repeated "O", for example. Very unusual.

    Better listened to than read, though, I'm thinking?
    Joyce is describing orgasm
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    I loved that show as a kid.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ev1aBt-_Zs4
    Not forgetting Willy Fog.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nGrYEFG6Ho
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    Leon said:

    Joyce is describing orgasm
    I wonder if the line where a guy describes his "O face" in Office Space is a Joycean literary allusion?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    Rishi going after sick notes now and suggesting there’ll be some gang of government fitness to work regulators instead (with what money?)

    He really is clueless. His finger is so far off the pulse it’s incredible.

    Reform/Tory crossover incoming.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,979
    Leon said:

    I’m amazed there isn’t more anger or at least fuss about Labour’s rebuff to the EU
    What's silly old Sir Keir gone and done now?
  • bobbobbobbob Posts: 100
    Conservatives in 2024: mega taxes, loves mass immigration, loves spending billions to faceless burraucrats, hates workers, destroyed the NHS, obsessed with “trans” and “woke” nonsense while the roads are full of potholes, zero common sense

    Is this the worst government in history? I think so.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    The tale of Puberty blockers in Scotland - the Sandyford clinic decided a month ago to stop prescribing new patients and prioritised telling patients over politicians - who were left looking even more foolish, having spent days doing “Cass review?” “Never heard of it/doesn’t apply here/trans genocide” after its publication.

    https://www.holyrood.com/inside-politics/view,puberty-blockers-the-medical-controversy-scotlands-experts-dont-want-to-talk-about

    Nice to see one grown up in the room.

    The Cass review has crossed the Pond.

    Here’s an amusing 10 minutes of American feminist comedian (and occasional Spectator columnist) Bridget Phetasy, ranting about it, and wondering how long it will take for all this to get get shut down in the States.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=QgYFT4ZXjEQ
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    kinabalu said:

    They're enjoyable to discuss but tbh I'm not sure how meaningful these "Gens" are. Most of how the world changes happens gradually and continuously rather than by "decade" or by "generation".
    I'm mildly irritated that in the UK I'm in Generation X, but here in Germany the Baby Boomer definition runs almost to the break up of the Beatles, which puts me comfortably in the Boomer generation :-(
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,312
    bobbob said:

    Conservatives in 2024: mega taxes, loves mass immigration, loves spending billions to faceless burraucrats, hates workers, destroyed the NHS, obsessed with “trans” and “woke” nonsense while the roads are full of potholes, zero common sense

    Is this the worst government in history? I think so.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/submit/

    You're a natural fit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,689

    What's silly old Sir Keir gone and done now?
    That's why there's less anger than Leon expected.
  • bobbobbobbob Posts: 100

    Rishi going after sick notes now and suggesting there’ll be some gang of government fitness to work regulators instead (with what money?)

    He really is clueless. His finger is so far off the pulse it’s incredible.

    Reform/Tory crossover incoming.

    They will bring immigrants in to do it no doubt processed using infosys systems.

    Why isn’t he using the approved Tory woke double-speak of “fit notes”?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,689
    edited April 2024

    Rishi going after sick notes now and suggesting there’ll be some gang of government fitness to work regulators instead (with what money?)

    He really is clueless. His finger is so far off the pulse it’s incredible.

    Reform/Tory crossover incoming.

    The obvious counterspin to the policy.

    After leaving the NHS on its knees and making Britain sicker, the Tories have decided to...blame the doctors.

    This country is crying out for a general election.

    https://twitter.com/Alison_McGovern/status/1781259155841364301
  • bobbob said:



    They will bring immigrants in to do it no doubt processed using infosys systems.

    Why isn’t he using the approved Tory woke double-speak of “fit notes”?
    Now I'm really confused. I thought "fit note" was the opposite of woke, or something.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,619
    Leon said:

    I’m amazed there isn’t more anger or at least fuss about Labour’s rebuff to the EU
    Perhaps it is an issue that only bothers the FBPE fanatics and that tit in the Top hat ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,793
    TOPPING said:

    You have bought all the trappings of a Hampstead artsy-fartsy intellectual apart from the artsy-fartsy intellectual bit.
    I'm not 'artsy-fartsy'. You shouldn't think I am just because I live in NW3.

    I was just asking you a question but it seems to have triggered something I wasn't looking for. Ah well. Live and learn.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,785
    kinabalu said:

    I'm not 'artsy-fartsy'. You shouldn't think I am just because I live in NW3.

    I was just asking you a question but it seems to have triggered something I wasn't looking for. Ah well. Live and learn.
    I think you should tell him you are a qualified Chartered Accountant. For all heir many virtues accountants are not often known for being intellectual or 'artsy-fartsy', though to be fair he did say "apart from" lol.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,756
    Can anyone tell me if luggage gets scanned at Eurostar? Like, if I take a Swiss Army knife etc will it get seized and chucked?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,785
    Leon said:

    But it doesn’t matter. We won’t be able to tell the difference

    Check out udio. It is making music as good as or better than humans, it just needs to up the audio quality and that’s that

    Before the moderators ban me for A.I. chat I am off to have oysters any minute! I’m not going to bang on
    I have always wondered whether you are actually AI generated.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,298
    Scott_xP said:

    @BestForBritain

    Sunak tries to brush off questions about the scandal surrounding alegations against Tory MP Menzies.

    VY: Why did you take so long to start an investigation?
    RS: The investigation is ongoing now, so I can't tell you.

    How is he SO BAD at every aspect of this job? ~AA

    Now ask Sir Keir about Nick Brown
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,785
    bobbob said:

    Conservatives in 2024: mega taxes, loves mass immigration, loves spending billions to faceless burraucrats, hates workers, destroyed the NHS, obsessed with “trans” and “woke” nonsense while the roads are full of potholes, zero common sense

    Is this the worst government in history? I think so.

    It will almost certainly be quickly toppled from that accolade by the next one.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,208
    Selebian said:

    Was at a dinner last night that included some PhD students, pre-doc research assistants and young post-docs among the older contingent of more established academics. The younger group were hugely unenthusiastic about Starmer on the whole and far from committed to voting at all/likely to vote Green. The older group were pretty committed in getting the government out, which meant Lab votes even without much enthusiasm - but if the younger group do go wasted vote minor party or not vote then the votes for Lab, if not the seats, could be underwhelming.

    There's a real and understandable enthusiasm gap out there. I will do my patriotic duty, but without much excitement and a Lib Dem party that actually enthused me could steal my vote in what could be - if there are any! - a reasonably tight Lab-Con seat*

    *will be the new Selby seat - the by-election winning Lab incumbent for the old seat seems fairly popular and he's been trying hard popping up in supermarkets etc and willing to listen to anyone, so I suspect he might actually hold quite easily given the national picture
    I don't blame them, but are your youngsters quite typical? This polling was from Peston and pretty convincing:


  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Leon said:

    Can anyone tell me if luggage gets scanned at Eurostar? Like, if I take a Swiss Army knife etc will it get seized and chucked?

    "You can take camping cutlery and tools like pocket or Swiss army knives, as long as any blades are less than 3" (75mm) long. Any folding knife with a blade that locks is strictly prohibited, regardless of size."

    https://www.eurostar.com/uk-en/travel-info/travel-planning/luggage/sports-and-camping-equipment
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,756

    There was a report that the EU may or may not be thinking of some kind of FOM for young people. Instead of jumping onto an unknown proposal that may or may not even exist, Sir Keith "Genocide & Kid Starver" Starmer announced that he had "no plans" to adopt such a policy.

    What kind of moron would wait to receive an actual proposal, read it & consider the implications before announcing they are in favour of it? That kind of evidence based, thoughtful policy making is at the heart of what is Destroying Britain.

    What we need, desperately, is policy making where it's made up while taking a slash, to get a headline.
    No, this was a definite if initial offer from the EU, and Labour's reaction was to "rebuff it" and why? "Because it crosses our Brexit red lines". Absolutely mental
  • bobbobbobbob Posts: 100
    Get ill or injured, queue for days to see your doctor, spend weeks to see another doctor, your doctor can’t write a sick note so you have to queue to see an unqualified government bureaucrat to write you a “fit note” for your work

    Soviet Russia or Sunak Britain?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,756
    Andy_JS said:

    "You can take camping cutlery and tools like pocket or Swiss army knives, as long as any blades are less than 3" (75mm) long. Any folding knife with a blade that locks is strictly prohibited, regardless of size."

    https://www.eurostar.com/uk-en/travel-info/travel-planning/luggage/sports-and-camping-equipment
    Cool, ta

    I might risk a little Opinel
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,793
    Leon said:

    Joyce is describing orgasm
    Yes, I can see that. Powerful stuff. I think I've heard this passage read aloud on the radio a few years ago. Not my cup of tea but ... yes powerful stuff.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,756
    I'm trying really hard not to mention the weather, but sweet fucking Jesus

    It is late April and it is 11C and the cold cold rain is SHEETING DOWN. My god

    And this is after the wettest 18 months in our history. WTF is going on?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,517
    bobbob said:

    Get ill or injured, queue for days to see your doctor, spend weeks to see another doctor, your doctor can’t write a sick note so you have to queue to see an unqualified government bureaucrat to write you a “fit note” for your work

    Soviet Russia or Sunak Britain?

    Seems highly unlikely Sunak will be in office to carry out the ill-informed, reheated nonsense he came out with this morning.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    When Tory politicians mention a moral mission you know it’s going to be anything but.

    Sunak really is a vile disgusting odious twat . Horrible little man.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,517
    Nigelb said:

    The obvious counterspin to the policy.

    After leaving the NHS on its knees and making Britain sicker, the Tories have decided to...blame the doctors.

    This country is crying out for a general election.

    https://twitter.com/Alison_McGovern/status/1781259155841364301
    Sunak is so poor at the job he appears not to know that the DWP already spend millions every year employing an army "of government fitness to work regulators" who assess all sickness and disability claims.

    No one gets more than a handful of initial weeks off sick/disabled on benefits based just on a GP's sick note.

    He is talking utter bollocks or he is deliberately lying to create a straw man that he can have a go at.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254

    Seems highly unlikely Sunak will be in office to carry out the ill-informed, reheated nonsense he came out with this morning.
    He really should call the election now. There is nothing compassionate about leaving a generation of Tory MPs in limbo watching as their dreams slip further from reach every single day.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,979
    Leon said:

    I'm trying really hard not to mention the weather, but sweet fucking Jesus

    It is late April and it is 11C and the cold cold rain is SHEETING DOWN. My god

    And this is after the wettest 18 months in our history. WTF is going on?

    Ne'er cast a clout till May be out.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,295
    Selebian said:

    Was at a dinner last night that included some PhD students, pre-doc research assistants and young post-docs among the older contingent of more established academics. The younger group were hugely unenthusiastic about Starmer on the whole and far from committed to voting at all/likely to vote Green. The older group were pretty committed in getting the government out, which meant Lab votes even without much enthusiasm - but if the younger group do go wasted vote minor party or not vote then the votes for Lab, if not the seats, could be underwhelming.

    There's a real and understandable enthusiasm gap out there. I will do my patriotic duty, but without much excitement and a Lib Dem party that actually enthused me could steal my vote in what could be - if there are any! - a reasonably tight Lab-Con seat*

    *will be the new Selby seat - the by-election winning Lab incumbent for the old seat seems fairly popular and he's been trying hard popping up in supermarkets etc and willing to listen to anyone, so I suspect he might actually hold quite easily given the national picture
    The ONLY time in my entire life I have ended up voting for the winning MP in a seat was in 2005 when we lived in Selby. FPTP, eh!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    kinabalu said:

    I'm not 'artsy-fartsy'. You shouldn't think I am just because I live in NW3.

    I was just asking you a question but it seems to have triggered something I wasn't looking for. Ah well. Live and learn.
    "WTF is that?"

    One of us was triggered that's for sure.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    Leon said:

    Can anyone tell me if luggage gets scanned at Eurostar? Like, if I take a Swiss Army knife etc will it get seized and chucked?

    Yes it is all scanned.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,926

    The ONLY time in my entire life I have ended up voting for the winning MP in a seat was in 2005 when we lived in Selby. FPTP, eh!
    I've never voted for the winning MP.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,756
    TOPPING said:

    Yes it is all scanned.
    And do they delve in and bin anything offensive? Sounds like they do. Might have to leave my machete and my Spyderco Tenacious at home
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,689
    Good.

    The Labour Party will send in the National Audit Office to investigate Teesworks if they win the next general election.
    https://twitter.com/leighsus/status/1780954779801542880
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,253
    Foxy said:

    I don't blame them, but are your youngsters quite typical? This polling was from Peston and pretty convincing:


    I would favour real polling over my anecdata, for sure :smile:

    The group I describe are of course atypical - politically engaged, at the top end of the educational qualifications and, within that group, oddities in pursuing academia rather than opportunities elsewhere.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    Leon said:

    And do they delve in and bin anything offensive? Sounds like they do. Might have to leave my machete and my Spyderco Tenacious at home
    That I can't tell you. But yes best leave that stuff at home unless you walk up to the conveyor belt carrying a pheasant carcass and say you are in the middle of breasting it.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Leon said:

    I'm trying really hard not to mention the weather, but sweet fucking Jesus

    It is late April and it is 11C and the cold cold rain is SHEETING DOWN. My god

    And this is after the wettest 18 months in our history. WTF is going on?

    Climate change causing record average global temperatures and volatility in specific locales.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    I'm in my 50s, grammar school boy, full grant at uni. My dad was a farm labourer turned small businessman who left school at 15 with no qualifications. I benefited enormously from Erasmus. Spent a year studying physics in Germany, learned German and met my future wife there. It was the first time I travelled abroad and perhaps the most formative experience of my life.
    Let us know when you eventually get married.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,689
    The GOP deadenders lose the key procedural vote. The House will get to decide on Ukraine aid.

    HOUSE LATEST

    • Rules Committee voted 9-3 to adopt the rule for the aid package (Massie/Roy/Norman voted NO, Ds voted yes)

    • House floor vote expected at ~10:30a today on the rule. Details: https://rules.house.gov/sites/republicans.rules118.house.gov/files/Rule HR8034HR8035HR8036HR8038.pdf

    • Then ~1:00-1:30p votes tomorrow on passage of all 4 bills.

    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1781286710946533690
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,517
    nico679 said:

    When Tory politicians mention a moral mission you know it’s going to be anything but.

    Sunak really is a vile disgusting odious twat . Horrible little man.

    I really think I am developing Sunak Derangement Syndrome.

    Every time he opens his mouth nowadays my blood starts to boil.


  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,756

    Ne'er cast a clout till May be out.
    An often misunderstood phrase

    The May in this saying is the May tree, the hawthorn. Cf "the bloom is on the blackthorn but not yet on the May"

    So what it is saying is you can't expect reliably warm weather until the hawthorn has blossomed, usually early-mid May

    It doesn't mention 18 months of fucking freezing monsoons
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Eabhal said:

    You'll be first up for the reopened slate mine at Blaenau Ffestiniog, desperately trying to get through to DWP before the minibus comes round to pick you up.
    Joking aside, what happens the first time someone (BigG is *NOT* in my mind here) dies as a result of one of those dodgy pretend doctor types' decisions?

    OTOH the NHS is already playing with substandard medics, aka "physician associates".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,689
    TOPPING said:

    That I can't tell you. But yes best leave that stuff at home unless you walk up to the conveyor belt carrying a pheasant carcass and say you are in the middle of breasting it.
    That's a whole different set of regs.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    TOPPING said:

    That I can't tell you. But yes best leave that stuff at home unless you walk up to the conveyor belt carrying a pheasant carcass and say you are in the middle of breasting it.
    They might suck their teeth a bit at the cleft sticks, too.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,926
    A good thread by David Henig on Labour's position on EU negotiations. Both on mobility and more broadly.

    https://x.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1780895064266277223

    TLDR they're not going to be able to ignore the issue forever.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Leon said:

    No, this was a definite if initial offer from the EU, and Labour's reaction was to "rebuff it" and why? "Because it crosses our Brexit red lines". Absolutely mental
    It is perfectly sensible to rebuff it. Wages have finally gone up post-Brexit in the retail sector after decades of stagnation. Freedom of Movement, even initially limited to young people, would undermine that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,689
    Leon said:

    An often misunderstood phrase

    The May in this saying is the May tree, the hawthorn. Cf "the bloom is on the blackthorn but not yet on the May"

    So what it is saying is you can't expect reliably warm weather until the hawthorn has blossomed, usually early-mid May

    It doesn't mention 18 months of fucking freezing monsoons
    New normal.

    You could ask Claude to pen new traditional doggerel more appropriate to our climate.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,756
    TimS said:

    A good thread by David Henig on Labour's position on EU negotiations. Both on mobility and more broadly.

    https://x.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1780895064266277223

    TLDR they're not going to be able to ignore the issue forever.

    Well, quite. I guess Remainers - which comprise the vast majority of Labour MPs, activists, and even voters - and many of them are REALLY REALLY Remainy - will tolerate lies and obfuscation from Starmer prior to the GE, in the assumption that he will change tack entirely once in government

    But if Starmer refuses a Free Movement for the Young offer when he is in office they will go postal. He will be in danger of losing his job. This matters to many people
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,619
    Foxy said:

    I don't blame them, but are your youngsters quite typical? This polling was from Peston and pretty convincing:


    Sleazy Lib Dems on the slide. Wid da yoof.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,756
    WillG said:

    It is perfectly sensible to rebuff it. Wages have finally gone up post-Brexit in the retail sector after decades of stagnation. Freedom of Movement, even initially limited to young people, would undermine that.
    90% of people who work for Labour, from canvassers to shadow ministers, will not see it that way. At all. They are fervent Remainers!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,193
    Nigelb said:

    That's a whole different set of regs.
    My favourite was when my wife tried to "help out" by laying a bottle of champagne, which was in a disposable bag type ice bucket, on its side. To go through the Xray machine

    Fortunately, the machine didn't die from the wave of water.....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,492

    Comparing the 2 polls, the Labour share isn’t too far out (38% v 42%). The big difference is Street’s share: 40% v 28%. So where do those Street votes go in the first poll? It’s largely Reform UK, who are on 13% v 7%.

    Does this mean the race is a big test of how to poll for Reform support?

    Yes, that is the big difference. I'm of the view that Reform won't actually amount to very much. And, @TSE that is an excellent betting tip. I still think a Street victory is unlikely, but it's more likely than the odds imply.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,756
    Nigelb said:

    New normal.

    You could ask Claude to pen new traditional doggerel more appropriate to our climate.
    "The rain is on the pavement, and now it's on the pavement again"

    "Ne'er cast a brolly. Ever."

    "The rain is in the house and now it's drowned the mouse"

    "Who needs a fucking swimming pool, just take a walk"
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,624

    Does PPE fraud count as people exploiting the natural compassion and generosity of the British people? Shouldn't he have cracked down on that?
    I think we all want that cracked down on. Is there evidence of actual fraud in PPE provision? If yes, please forward to the police, if they are not investigating.

    If, on the other hand, a bunch of people, potentially mates with ministers, responded to a national emergency by procuring PPE that was to spec and was used, but at a high price, then I don't think that's a huge issue.
  • TimS said:

    I've never voted for the winning MP.
    (Me neither.)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,492

    I really think I am developing Sunak Derangement Syndrome.

    Every time he opens his mouth nowadays my blood starts to boil.


    I think he's crap, but I don't lose my temper over him.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    Leon said:

    Well, quite. I guess Remainers - which comprise the vast majority of Labour MPs, activists, and even voters - and many of them are REALLY REALLY Remainy - will tolerate lies and obfuscation from Starmer prior to the GE, in the assumption that he will change tack entirely once in government

    But if Starmer refuses a Free Movement for the Young offer when he is in office they will go postal. He will be in danger of losing his job. This matters to many people
    I don't think it's that we assume he's lying, it's just that compared to ejecting this useless and utterly malign shower of shit from government we really don't care about anything else.
    The EU stuff will happen at some point because it's the will of the people and it's only going in one direction. I'm very relaxed about the timeline, personally. No rush.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,492
    Nigelb said:

    The GOP deadenders lose the key procedural vote. The House will get to decide on Ukraine aid.

    HOUSE LATEST

    • Rules Committee voted 9-3 to adopt the rule for the aid package (Massie/Roy/Norman voted NO, Ds voted yes)

    • House floor vote expected at ~10:30a today on the rule. Details: https://rules.house.gov/sites/republicans.rules118.house.gov/files/Rule HR8034HR8035HR8036HR8038.pdf

    • Then ~1:00-1:30p votes tomorrow on passage of all 4 bills.

    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1781286710946533690

    The pro-Putin wing of the Republican Party is looking quite isolated.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Leon said:

    Well, quite. I guess Remainers - which comprise the vast majority of Labour MPs, activists, and even voters - and many of them are REALLY REALLY Remainy - will tolerate lies and obfuscation from Starmer prior to the GE, in the assumption that he will change tack entirely once in government

    But if Starmer refuses a Free Movement for the Young offer when he is in office they will go postal. He will be in danger of losing his job. This matters to many people
    The amount of lies the media is pushing here is at a new level. They keep on claiming the economy will force Starmer to sell out over Brexit. But the UK's poor economy has actually done better than the EU's since Brexit was implemented. We have had higher growth and higher employment. And immigration controls have improved wages at the lower end of the income distribution.
  • Eabhal said:

    You'll be first up for the reopened slate mine at Blaenau Ffestiniog, desperately trying to get through to DWP before the minibus comes round to pick you up.
    What an insulting comment to someone who has worked from 16 to retirement at 65, honestly and a created a business which employed 15, none of whom ever complained and many of whom remain personal friends 40 years later
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,624

    Martin Kettle had a good piece on this the other day:

    At present, Labour is keen to lock a future government’s relations with Europe in the pre-election long-stay car park. Starmer wants the forthcoming contest to be about Conservative economic failure, not about Brexit. Even Labour’s most passionate pro-Europeans have accepted that getting elected must come first. The party’s reluctance to air the European question too loudly before that is understandable. But this does not mean the question is going to go away in government...

    But Britain’s relationship with Europe cannot avoid being a key dynamic of any long-term national renewal project for Britain of the kind that Starmer promised to the Labour conference last year. Repair with Europe cannot be dodged indefinitely, whether in the context of domestic politics, international security or the economy.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/apr/18/keir-starmer-europe-economy-labour-eu

    Ahead of the election it's understandable that Labour don't want to let the Tories and Reform - and their media overlords - to start wittering on about how Brexit is in peril. They can't be allowed to get the old band back together.

    I did read somewhere else that 80% of the Labour membership want to rejoin. If they get a stonking majority that 80% won't be quiet. Especially as Leavers die off in ever greater numbers and are replaced by pro-EU people under 60 and the electoral prize of full-throated pro-EUism becomes too big to ignore.

    The Tories, the Leavers, want to lock Brexit in. They want Brexit to be permanent. And perhaps they will succeed. Kettle concedes that might well be the case. But where I think Kettle is right is that reality will push us back closer to the EU. The Leavers got high on their own supply and gave us an immensely damaging, rupturing, Brexit - a version of Brexit that if Cameron had had the sense to be properly defined ahead of the referendum would never have won.

    Business hates Brexit, everyone under 60 pretty much hates Brexit. We will become much closer to Europe and we will achieve BRINO. And as livid as I still am for what Brexit, and the liars who delivered it, have robbed me of, a return of sanity and closer relations and, hopefully, a return of at least some of the privileges my EU citizenship entitled me to, will help. A bit.

    I'm 46 and I knew several people - normal people, not upper-middle class people - who benefitted from Erasmus. An ex-girlfriend of mine spent a year in Aix-en-Provece and Valencia as part of her study. Now, obviously, the Leavers want these uppity working class kids to properly know their station in life and become plumbers or charwomen. But young people won't settle for not having what their parents had. And if young people get freedom of movement, well then their parents and people of my age who had it, will want it returned.
    We are still sending exchange students form our course and I am currently hosting a lovely Danish student. Erasmus was not the be all and end all of student exchange. I don't know all the details but I believe the EU tried to make the UK pay a much higher rate to take part and were told to bog-off.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,926
    Taz said:

    Sleazy Lib Dems on the slide. Wid da yoof.
    The last one was a Lib Dem outlier. One of the fascinating features of LD voting intention is it's almost completely flat across all the generations. Being a Lib Dem is a lifetime's commitment.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,517
    Sunak working as a political commentator, yet again...


    Torsten Bell
    @TorstenBell
    Okay - the big domestic news today isn't the fluff around sick notes. It's @RishiSunak going ahead with a consultation promising big reform of Personal Independence Payments (non-means tested disability benefit for people in or out of work)

    Torsten Bell
    @TorstenBell
    ·
    1h
    But looking at what's been said this morning, this is a problem statement not a plan for doing something about it

    https://twitter.com/TorstenBell/status/1781261754896437363
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,100
    @KevinASchofield

    Finally, some good news for Humza Yousaf.

    @kacnutt

    New: Members of the Scottish Greens are demanding an emergency meeting to end the Bute House Agreement with the SNP
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,926
    Leon said:

    "The rain is on the pavement, and now it's on the pavement again"

    "Ne'er cast a brolly. Ever."

    "The rain is in the house and now it's drowned the mouse"

    "Who needs a fucking swimming pool, just take a walk"
    When sky is grey, the dreary weather's here to stay
    When sky is blue, a sleety shower's just passed through
    When sky is white, the weather's probably staying shite
    When sky is red, Russia just nuked us and everyone's dead
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,793

    One of the weirder things is Israel's insistence on not confirming that they're involved in any of the numerous extraterritorial actions that they have in fact taken.

    Week preceding: (loudly) We're gonna fuck those mullahs good!!

    Today: we can neither confirm or deny..

    Must be frustrating for an enthusiastic willy waver like Netanyahu.
    He's still managing to wave plenty of it though. You'd have thought America would have more influence over its so-called client state, wouldn't you. Seems quite a one way relationship atm. What's worrying is the US political angle. Like all the world's worst people Netanyahu wants Trump back. So this gives him further leverage against Biden.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,926
    Sean_F said:

    The pro-Putin wing of the Republican Party is looking quite isolated.
    Feels like they're going to adhere to the Winston Churchill quip about the Americans and doing the right thing.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    I don't think it's that we assume he's lying, it's just that compared to ejecting this useless and utterly malign shower of shit from government we really don't care about anything else.
    The EU stuff will happen at some point because it's the will of the people and it's only going in one direction. I'm very relaxed about the timeline, personally. No rush.
    So Labour and the Europhile left are lying to the public to sneak in European integration by the back door. Just like they did over the Lisbon Treaty. Just like they tried to do after the referendum. They don't have a democratic bone in their bodies.
  • We are still sending exchange students form our course and I am currently hosting a lovely Danish student. Erasmus was not the be all and end all of student exchange. I don't know all the details but I believe the EU tried to make the UK pay a much higher rate to take part and were told to bog-off.
    My granddaughter with 4 fellow students, have been at Turin University since September and return to Leeds University next September
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,819
    The latest from the Labour Party:

    image

    https://x.com/uklabour/status/1781285090032509415
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    I really think I am developing Sunak Derangement Syndrome.

    Every time he opens his mouth nowadays my blood starts to boil.


    Same.

    I avoid the News at the moment and often regret coming on pb as a result (too many men talking about war for me).

    But I mainly avoid News right now because of the hatred being stirred up by the tories on almost every topic they can poison.

    It will take years, possibly decades, to repair the damage they have done to this country: their legitimisation of hatred.
  • We are still sending exchange students form our course and I am currently hosting a lovely Danish student. Erasmus was not the be all and end all of student exchange. I don't know all the details but I believe the EU tried to make the UK pay a much higher rate to take part and were told to bog-off.
    Erasmus wasn't the be all and end all, but it made it possible for kids from poor families to spend a year studying abroad under the same conditions as the native students. This included having your own student accommodation rather than having to be put up by some obliging family.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,253
    TimS said:

    I've never voted for the winning MP.
    It's a problem if you vote LD :wink:

    (I did actually once successfully elect a Lib Dem MP, in Cardiff Central in 2005)
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Sean_F said:

    It's the best news for a long time. They should have done it months ago, but better late than never.
    Would have been tragic if the Americans had abandoned the Ukrainians the way they abandoned the Kurds under Trump.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,175

    (Me neither.)
    Nope, not even close. OTOH I have a 3/3 on referendums :smile:
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,756
    TimS said:

    When sky is grey, the dreary weather's here to stay
    When sky is blue, a sleety shower's just passed through
    When sky is white, the weather's probably staying shite
    When sky is red, Russia just nuked us and everyone's dead
    Lol. Much better than mine. And all too true
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,793
    Selebian said:

    Dunno, my brother is just in tail end of gen X (I'm early millennial) and we're chalk and cheese. I'm measured, sensible, avocado on toast kind of guy (until I discovered the environmental impact of avocado and decided to buy a house instead). He's a walking celebration of binge drinking and drug taking, popular culture that didn't take itself too seriously etc. At least, he's a Chartered Accountant, so I assume it follows that all that is true? :wink:
    Binge drinking and Chartered Accountancy do go together, yes. I can totally vouch for that.

    1960 so I'm a babyboomer, I think? Yet I'm nothing like Bill Clinton. So I don't know. I'm sceptical of most of this. Same as I am of national characteristics - a "brave" people, a "lazy" people, a "friendly" people, all of that sort of thing. It's mainly about oiling a certain sort of conversation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,689
    edited April 2024
    Leon said:

    "The rain is on the pavement, and now it's on the pavement again"

    "Ne'er cast a brolly. Ever."

    "The rain is in the house and now it's drowned the mouse"

    "Who needs a fucking swimming pool, just take a walk"
    'Tis a folly, to leave your brolly.

    Rain in Spring is the thing
    In Summer, Autumn, Winter, continuing.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,193

    The latest from the Labour Party:

    image

    https://x.com/uklabour/status/1781285090032509415

    Ah yes, the "magic brownfield" solution.

    The issue is really that a confluence of interests slows the rate of building down. Which is how the local politicians like it - because they would get voted out, if they voted to allow building to increase.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,756
    DavidL said:

    From the ONS main points in February (the latest available)

    "The total goods and services trade deficit narrowed by £2.0 billion to a deficit of £9.9 billion in the three months to February 2024, and has been steadily improving since Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2022."

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/February2024

    But our media will simply not allow the actual story of the actual numbers to be told. Because it would show that they were wrong.
    But we have had an unprecedented decline in GDP per capita. Yes we might have grown faster than Germany or whatever but we had 1.4m immigrants in 2 years. Anyone can get growth out of that

    What matters is GDP per capita. And it’s been falling. We are getting poorer
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,492
    edited April 2024
    DavidL said:

    From the ONS main points in February (the latest available)

    "The total goods and services trade deficit narrowed by £2.0 billion to a deficit of £9.9 billion in the three months to February 2024, and has been steadily improving since Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2022."

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/February2024

    But our media will simply not allow the actual story of the actual numbers to be told. Because it would show that they were wrong.
    Barring WWIII, I expect that growth will be pretty brisk between now and the end of the decade. The 2020-23 period was a one-off period of shocks, and business investment has been growing rapidly over the past three years.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,689
    Given their ongoing development of a next generation fighter, this will be quite useful for them.

    S. Korea to build F-35 maintenance facility at Cheongju Air Base

    https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20240418050200
    ..in December, the Defense Acquisition Program Administration signed a letter of acceptance with the US government to procure an additional 20 jets, scheduled for delivery beginning in 2027.

    DAPA said the second phase of the F-35A procurement deal includes provisions for South Korea to establish its own facility for heavy airframe maintenance, repairs, overhauls and upgrades, as well as stealth coating.

    "(The facility) will eliminate the need for long-term overseas maintenance, thereby reducing aircraft downtime, as well as operational and maintenance costs," DAPA vice spokesperson You Hyoung-keun said during a regular press briefing.

    "We plan to have the maintenance capabilities by the end of 2027," You added.

    South Korea will be the third country in the Asia-Pacific to have an F-35 maintenance facility, following Australia and Japan.

    The US has permitted South Korea to conduct minor maintenance on the F-35As due to security concerns, while major maintenance has been delegated to a regional repair base in Japan...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,926
    Selebian said:

    It's a problem if you vote LD :wink:

    (I did actually once successfully elect a Lib Dem MP, in Cardiff Central in 2005)
    Worse than that. I only voted Labour in a GE once, in 1997. In a constituency that unbeknownst to the young naive me was a Lib Dem-Tory marginal.
  • Leon said:

    Don’t worry I’m off for oysters at Sheeks in a minute
    Which I happen to be passing, right now!
    Wanna buy me a drink Leon?


  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,492
    Leon said:

    But we have had an unprecedented decline in GDP per capita. Yes we might have grown faster than Germany or whatever but we had 1.4m immigrants in 2 years. Anyone can get growth out of that

    What matters is GDP per capita. And it’s been falling. We are getting poorer
    It does matter, but I see no reason why (absent war, which is the big unknown), growth won't resume.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    WillG said:

    So Labour and the Europhile left are lying to the public to sneak in European integration by the back door. Just like they did over the Lisbon Treaty. Just like they tried to do after the referendum. They don't have a democratic bone in their bodies.
    Wow well done for not reading anything I've actually said. I'm just saying I think the UK and EU relationship will reintegrate over time in a way that reflects public opinion. People don't like Brexit, and politicians will follow policies that reflect that because we are a democracy and that's what happens. I am not in a rush to force that process because I think it's inevitable - and if I am wrong and public opinion actually starts to embrace Brexit then I'm fine with that, I've no interest in fighting public opinion on this issue.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,175

    Ah yes, the "magic brownfield" solution.

    The issue is really that a confluence of interests slows the rate of building down. Which is how the local politicians like it - because they would get voted out, if they voted to allow building to increase.
    There is just a little bit of a younger Yvette Cooper about her.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,926
    DavidL said:

    From the ONS main points in February (the latest available)

    "The total goods and services trade deficit narrowed by £2.0 billion to a deficit of £9.9 billion in the three months to February 2024, and has been steadily improving since Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2022."

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/February2024

    But our media will simply not allow the actual story of the actual numbers to be told. Because it would show that they were wrong.
    Useful recent report on our post Brexit trade stats here:

    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/britains-post-brexit-trade-patterns-are-finally-emerging-in-the-data/#:~:text=By the end of 2023, goods trade had shrunk to,than any other G7 country.

    Weak goods, strong services.
This discussion has been closed.