Truss has near zero chance of being next Tory leader. If a rightwinger succeeds Sunak it will likely be Badenoch or Braverman, if a relative moderate Barclay or Mordaunt (if she holds her seat).
Neither MPs nor members would back her now
You are spot on
She could re - join the Lib Dems and take on Ed Davey
Have to feel a bit sorry for Liz Truss; to fail so terribly in a high profile job like that must be excruciating. But she can’t really complain. It’s a joke that we are able to have PMs who haven’t won General Elections, new leaders should have to call one within six months of their appointment
I pity her for her utter lack of self awareness. Anyone that deluded about their own capacity deserves to fail spectacularly. That she ploughed her career into the ground in an epic manner and still is unacquainted with the limits of her ability is beyond comprehension. It also beggars belief that such a significant chunk of the Tory party looked at her and agreed with her delusional self appraisal.
I think it's La Thatch. She's still haunting the Tories, and her ghost is particularly scary because it was the Tories wot toppled her - Britain's greatest peacetime prime minister since whenever. The Tories keep looking for a new Thatcher in the hope of exorcising the last - Theresa May, Liz Truss - but every time they come up fearfully short. Those are the two worst prime ministers I've known
Now they will try again, with Badenoch or Braverman, and almost certainly fail again. Eventually they will break out of this psychic loop but by the time they do the party may be entirely defunct as an electoral force
Nah, even TMay wasn't that awful, except when she started to pretend to be a brainless Brexit adherent.
Liz Truss was put on this planet to attempt to prove that someone could actually be a more ridiculous PM than Boris Johnson. Even in this she failed.
Boris Johnson's position as most preposterous premier is, and always will be, unassailable.
With regards to Margaret Thatcher, every church ends up killing its god. By reducing a complex woman with a set of principles and knowledge of statecraft to a set of actions in the 1980s, they turned her into an icon to be paid lip-service to and then ignored.
The US Right is the same with Reagan. His views on - for example - undocumented migrants or autocratic regimes that invade their neigbours would be abhorrent to much of the GOP today,
Only 42% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again—the joint-lowest percentage we’ve recorded since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister and just five points higher than the lowest percentage (37%) we’ve ever recorded (16 October 2022).
24% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote for Reform UK—a record high in our polling—18% would vote for Labour, and 7% would vote for other parties.
Pity the true believers who invested their nest eggs at £70.
So the shares are only overvalued now by a factor of 100 or so?
Depends how you look at it. What are the shares worth if Trump loses? Probably zero. What are the shares worth if Trump wins and behaves within or close to democratic norms? Probably zero.
But what are the shares worth if Trump wins and goes full on autocrat? Quite a lot. What would Putin or Xis private media company be worth?
Now plenty will say Trump successfully being a full on autocrat is a neglible chance, but I dont think it unreasonable to think it is a 10% or so chance that he succeeds in that, and in those circumstances it would have a good shot at becoming a valuable business. I don't think it is a ridiculous hedge against a Trump win and the economic shocks from that even though I would expect it to fairly quickly tend to zero over 90% of the time.
Actually, I think the shares are worth more if Trump loses. If he wins, he'll probably go back on Twitter using the POTUS tag, and that means that Truth Social is essentially worthless.
Down to $27.15 now. Question must be how many MAGAs are willing to keep buying as the price falls. Down roughly `16% in a day.
REAL question is, how many foreign BAD actors are willing to keep on subsidizing Trump in anticipation of (potential) future returns?
And whether Trump has managed to create the largest hole in the Election Finance rules in history with virtually no accountability for who is providing the money that indirectly funds him.
As an aside, it potentially makes all political donations tax free. You lose money on your shares... well *kaching* you've made a loss that you can offset against income.
She has gone full on Trumpite saying Trump must win in November. Other Tories saying Trump must not win and some saying nothing to do with us guv.
The Tories are really idiotic if they think November is a good time to hold an election here. The main attention will go to Trump. The Tories are deeply and irreconcilably divided on Trump, so they will inevitably look like the divided party they are. And the Tories need attention domestically to somehow catch up in the polling.
As they are indeed idiotic expect a November election.
Trump is the Republican candidate, and the Republicans are the right of centre party. Furthermore, it is true that Biden has been one of the least supportive leaders to the UK, and that Trump has always been well-disposed toward the UK and has friends, business interests, and familial ties here. It seems a mark of polite society that we should all clutch our pearls at the very thought of him gaining the White House again - well that can fuck off.
Not a question of politeness, more an indication of either a disdain for democratic norms or a lack of intelligence, or both, they often go together.
Democratic norms dictate to me that we should accept whoever the Americans choose, not leave a puddle on the floor about how awful it all is.
Furthermore Liz Truss is absolutely right to bring the argument back to who has been more supportive to the UK - that's the only dog we have in this fight, and something too many of us are utterly blind to, either because we feel the national interest is a dirty concept, or because we're the sort of thicko who defaces the cenotaph because an American policman killed someone.
Bollocks. Should we accept whomever the Russians choose? Should we have accepted whom the 1930s Germans chose?
FFS, the man is a genuine fascist, we have every right to condemn the vile piece of shite. As for him being "more supportive to the UK" that is highly arguable, and even if it were true it does not make him remotely appropriate.
Oh, and I forgot to add that to his very long list of puke inducing vileness we should add that he sucks up to Putin. For what reasons, we can only guess.
On topic, I won't be betting on it but I can imagine Liz Truss going for Conservative leader again. Amazing to say but I don't think she sees her period as PM as any sort of personal failure. It's about self-care, I suppose. Letting in too much challenging reality too quickly can be harmful to a person. Plus why should she anyway? There's no shortage of people in the party who inhabit the same fantasy world she does.
Truss’ ability for self delusion is perhaps unmatched in politics, save for the Orange Menace on the other side of the pond.
Sometimes I wonder if it’s a coping mechanism. I mean, having that happen when she reached the top, it would be enough to give most people extreme mental distress. But then, she has always given off the vibe of someone who just clunks about not having the foggiest idea of what is going on around them, so maybe it’s just who she is.
Afternoon everyone. When this happened a week ago, along came two polls to mess it up but this time I think it will stand:
As of today 5 consecutive opinion polls have been published with Labour leads of 20%+ which is the first time this sequence has occurred since last September. The steady trend away from the Conservatives continues. For Rishi ‘things can only get worser’
This is silly. There's no huge change in the lead, and as soon as one of the pollsters who report a smaller lead than the other firms releases a new poll then your pattern will be broken.
If Opinium, or Savanta, release a poll with a >20% lead then that would be a change and would indicate a new pattern.
I made no great claims about it. I merely noted that it’s the first time since last September that 5 consecutive polls have given Labour a 20%+ lead.
So I don’t think it is “silly”. Sometimes when the pattern begins to form it takes a while for everyone to see it. Put more empirically, the Conservatives dropped another 2% in March. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
I would just comment that the polls seem remarkably steady with little overall change and Labour about 20% ahead
I see no reason for them to change before the election is called in the autumn
Hi Big G.
Based on recent polling, the continuing slide in their support, and the weakness of Sunak I think this Conservative slide is quite possibly going to continue.
She has gone full on Trumpite saying Trump must win in November. Other Tories saying Trump must not win and some saying nothing to do with us guv.
The Tories are really idiotic if they think November is a good time to hold an election here. The main attention will go to Trump. The Tories are deeply and irreconcilably divided on Trump, so they will inevitably look like the divided party they are. And the Tories need attention domestically to somehow catch up in the polling.
As they are indeed idiotic expect a November election.
Trump is the Republican candidate, and the Republicans are the right of centre party. Furthermore, it is true that Biden has been one of the least supportive leaders to the UK, and that Trump has always been well-disposed toward the UK and has friends, business interests, and familial ties here. It seems a mark of polite society that we should all clutch our pearls at the very thought of him gaining the White House again - well that can fuck off.
Not a question of politeness, more an indication of either a disdain for democratic norms or a lack of intelligence, or both, they often go together.
Democratic norms dictate to me that we should accept whoever the Americans choose, not leave a puddle on the floor about how awful it all is.
Furthermore Liz Truss is absolutely right to bring the argument back to who has been more supportive to the UK - that's the only dog we have in this fight, and something too many of us are utterly blind to, either because we feel the national interest is a dirty concept, or because we're the sort of thicko who defaces the cenotaph because an American policman killed someone.
Ha, so we shouldn't have a view on the election, and especially not point out how awful it is, apart from Truss, who should express the view that Trump is great and Biden a disaster. Got it, you think we can have a view supporting Trump or no view at all. Fortunately we can actually have whatever view we like regardless of your nonsense.
A loopy Liz comeback as LOTO really would take the Tories into the wilderness for a decade...
She's be William Hague and IDS combined
I think it’s almost a given that they will be in the political wilderness for a decade. I’m increasingly thinking it will be 20 years before anyone in this country dares trust them again with the keys to No. 10.
People will look back on these as the Horror Years. Short of WWIII, which may yet happen, almost everything that could go wrong, did.
I’m still not entirely convinced that “The Conservative and Unionist Party” brand is going to survive. When a right wing party takes office again I could very much see it being under a different badge.
Nah, they're like cockroaches. They'll survive and come back. They always do.
On topic, I won't be betting on it but I can imagine Liz Truss going for Conservative leader again. Amazing to say but I don't think she sees her period as PM as any sort of personal failure. It's about self-care, I suppose. Letting in too much challenging reality too quickly can be harmful to a person. Plus why should she anyway? There's no shortage of people in the party who inhabit the same fantasy world she does.
Uncannily, yesterday I was watching one of those Mentour Pilot videos. It was where the moral is the need for a capacity for self-criticism, else one ends up crashing the airliner vertically into a swamp full of crocodiles.
A loopy Liz comeback as LOTO really would take the Tories into the wilderness for a decade...
She's be William Hague and IDS combined
I think it’s almost a given that they will be in the political wilderness for a decade. I’m increasingly thinking it will be 20 years before anyone in this country dares trust them again with the keys to No. 10.
People will look back on these as the Horror Years. Short of WWIII, which may yet happen, almost everything that could go wrong, did.
I’m still not entirely convinced that “The Conservative and Unionist Party” brand is going to survive. When a right wing party takes office again I could very much see it being under a different badge.
Nah, they're like cockroaches. They'll survive and come back. They always do.
.
Possibly.
Though I’ve not seen a party destroy itself quite so convincingly as the Tories in the last 4 years.
I do think the brand is shot, and it’ll take more than Cameroony trees and huskies and mood music to alter that now.
Discovered using the Oxford Nanopore Minion sequencer - which is one of their low end models, affordable by a large high school (and indeed used by some).
A loopy Liz comeback as LOTO really would take the Tories into the wilderness for a decade...
She's be William Hague and IDS combined
I think it’s almost a given that they will be in the political wilderness for a decade. I’m increasingly thinking it will be 20 years before anyone in this country dares trust them again with the keys to No. 10.
People will look back on these as the Horror Years. Short of WWIII, which may yet happen, almost everything that could go wrong, did.
I’m still not entirely convinced that “The Conservative and Unionist Party” brand is going to survive. When a right wing party takes office again I could very much see it being under a different badge.
Nah, they're like cockroaches. They'll survive and come back. They always do.
Truss. She just has so little self awareness. She’s plugging a book, so fair enough, but she’s not the victim here. She failed spectacularly down to her limitations. Recent interview with Kwasi Kwarteng on the Merryn talks Money podcast was rather interesting on it.
Support for more military help for Ukraine has risen from 33% in Feb to 42% now. Support for less military help has fallen from 28% to 22%.
On the other hand only 8% now think Ukraine can win the war (21% in August).
Also showing Pistorius again as the politician with the highest favourability. Pistorius +1.7 Söder (CSU) -0.1 Then a whole bunch including Scholz and almost all the other party leaders between -0.6 and -0.8 Except Weidel (AfD) -2.7
Prosecutors asking for a sanction of $1k a post in respect of 3 posts that they allege breach the gag order and that Trump be put on notice that further breaches will result in him being remanded. There was a further post this morning that referred to Cohen, amongst others, as a sleezebag.
It seems that they are more looking at marking his card at this point than seeking substantial orders.
A loopy Liz comeback as LOTO really would take the Tories into the wilderness for a decade...
She's be William Hague and IDS combined
I think it’s almost a given that they will be in the political wilderness for a decade. I’m increasingly thinking it will be 20 years before anyone in this country dares trust them again with the keys to No. 10.
People will look back on these as the Horror Years. Short of WWIII, which may yet happen, almost everything that could go wrong, did.
I’m still not entirely convinced that “The Conservative and Unionist Party” brand is going to survive. When a right wing party takes office again I could very much see it being under a different badge.
Nah, they're like cockroaches. They'll survive and come back. They always do.
.
Possibly.
Though I’ve not seen a party destroy itself quite so convincingly as the Tories in the last 4 years.
I do think the brand is shot, and it’ll take more than Cameroony trees and huskies and mood music to alter that now.
They'll come back when Labour mess up and run out of money, as they always do in the end.
Judge Merchan now warns Trump that if he disrupts the trial he could be removed from the courtroom and jailed. He then says if he fails to appear in court a warrant for his arrest will be issued. He makes Trump acknowledge he understands. https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1779907573971406939
A loopy Liz comeback as LOTO really would take the Tories into the wilderness for a decade...
She's be William Hague and IDS combined
I think it’s almost a given that they will be in the political wilderness for a decade. I’m increasingly thinking it will be 20 years before anyone in this country dares trust them again with the keys to No. 10.
People will look back on these as the Horror Years. Short of WWIII, which may yet happen, almost everything that could go wrong, did.
I’m still not entirely convinced that “The Conservative and Unionist Party” brand is going to survive. When a right wing party takes office again I could very much see it being under a different badge.
Nah, they're like cockroaches. They'll survive and come back. They always do.
Much like the Labour Party, I guess.
They've been in the game longer than Labour to be fair but yes, it was only a few years ago we were all speculating about Lab being replaced by Lib-Dem but as in the early 80s it came to naught...
A loopy Liz comeback as LOTO really would take the Tories into the wilderness for a decade...
She's be William Hague and IDS combined
I think it’s almost a given that they will be in the political wilderness for a decade. I’m increasingly thinking it will be 20 years before anyone in this country dares trust them again with the keys to No. 10.
People will look back on these as the Horror Years. Short of WWIII, which may yet happen, almost everything that could go wrong, did.
I’m still not entirely convinced that “The Conservative and Unionist Party” brand is going to survive. When a right wing party takes office again I could very much see it being under a different badge.
Nah, they're like cockroaches. They'll survive and come back. They always do.
.
Possibly.
Though I’ve not seen a party destroy itself quite so convincingly as the Tories in the last 4 years.
I do think the brand is shot, and it’ll take more than Cameroony trees and huskies and mood music to alter that now.
I think many thought that about Labour when Corbyn was "leader". All forgotten now of course. Well, until they get into power then many will remember that though the Tories have been shit recently, Labour always manages to outperform in general in it's incredible inability to run the mythological whelk stall.
Data centers do not create thousands of jobs - once built it’s now got to the point that you don’t need to touch them until you deprecate the whole Centre and replace everything 5 years later
Prosecutors asking for a sanction of $1k a post in respect of 3 posts that they allege breach the gag order and that Trump be put on notice that further breaches will result in him being remanded. There was a further post this morning that referred to Cohen, amongst others, as a sleezebag.
It seems that they are more looking at marking his card at this point than seeking substantial orders.
He will keep breaching the gag order. They will keep fining him inconsequential amounts and threatening to remand him. Repeat, repeat, repeat....pathetic.
She has gone full on Trumpite saying Trump must win in November. Other Tories saying Trump must not win and some saying nothing to do with us guv.
The Tories are really idiotic if they think November is a good time to hold an election here. The main attention will go to Trump. The Tories are deeply and irreconcilably divided on Trump, so they will inevitably look like the divided party they are. And the Tories need attention domestically to somehow catch up in the polling.
As they are indeed idiotic expect a November election.
Trump is the Republican candidate, and the Republicans are the right of centre party. Furthermore, it is true that Biden has been one of the least supportive leaders to the UK, and that Trump has always been well-disposed toward the UK and has friends, business interests, and familial ties here. It seems a mark of polite society that we should all clutch our pearls at the very thought of him gaining the White House again - well that can fuck off.
Where "polite society" means "anybody with their head screwed on".
Prosecutors asking for a sanction of $1k a post in respect of 3 posts that they allege breach the gag order and that Trump be put on notice that further breaches will result in him being remanded. There was a further post this morning that referred to Cohen, amongst others, as a sleezebag.
It seems that they are more looking at marking his card at this point than seeking substantial orders.
Judge seems pretty even handed in his rulings so far (for instance in excluding a number of things the prosecution wanted to introduce in evidence); what's your take, David ?
Afternoon everyone. When this happened a week ago, along came two polls to mess it up but this time I think it will stand:
As of today 5 consecutive opinion polls have been published with Labour leads of 20%+ which is the first time this sequence has occurred since last September. The steady trend away from the Conservatives continues. For Rishi ‘things can only get worser’
This is silly. There's no huge change in the lead, and as soon as one of the pollsters who report a smaller lead than the other firms releases a new poll then your pattern will be broken.
If Opinium, or Savanta, release a poll with a >20% lead then that would be a change and would indicate a new pattern.
I made no great claims about it. I merely noted that it’s the first time since last September that 5 consecutive polls have given Labour a 20%+ lead.
So I don’t think it is “silly”. Sometimes when the pattern begins to form it takes a while for everyone to see it. Put more empirically, the Conservatives dropped another 2% in March. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
I would just comment that the polls seem remarkably steady with little overall change and Labour about 20% ahead
I see no reason for them to change before the election is called in the autumn
Hi Big G.
Based on recent polling, the continuing slide in their support, and the weakness of Sunak I think this Conservative slide is quite possibly going to continue.
There will be a floor of conservative support and the key, as it always has been, is the effect Reform will have on that support in a GE
As far as I am concerned I am content with Sunak and Hunt as they have stabilised the economy, but also the alternatives are worse, much worse
Starmer will be PM with a large majority later this year, but I expect his opposition will come from within his large number of mps among many of whom are silently waiting to win and then will become vocal against his fiscal conservative leaning policies
On topic, I won't be betting on it but I can imagine Liz Truss going for Conservative leader again. Amazing to say but I don't think she sees her period as PM as any sort of personal failure. It's about self-care, I suppose. Letting in too much challenging reality too quickly can be harmful to a person. Plus why should she anyway? There's no shortage of people in the party who inhabit the same fantasy world she does.
Uncannily, yesterday I was watching one of those Mentour Pilot videos. It was where the moral is the need for a capacity for self-criticism, else one ends up crashing the airliner vertically into a swamp full of crocodiles.
Could be one of two: Eastern Airlines 401 (a level CFIT due to absorption in another problem) or ValuJet 592 (near-vertical crash due to a fire). I'm not sure either were due to excess deference.
Pity the true believers who invested their nest eggs at £70.
So the shares are only overvalued now by a factor of 100 or so?
Depends how you look at it. What are the shares worth if Trump loses? Probably zero. What are the shares worth if Trump wins and behaves within or close to democratic norms? Probably zero.
But what are the shares worth if Trump wins and goes full on autocrat? Quite a lot. What would Putin or Xis private media company be worth?
Now plenty will say Trump successfully being a full on autocrat is a neglible chance, but I dont think it unreasonable to think it is a 10% or so chance that he succeeds in that, and in those circumstances it would have a good shot at becoming a valuable business. I don't think it is a ridiculous hedge against a Trump win and the economic shocks from that even though I would expect it to fairly quickly tend to zero over 90% of the time.
Actually, I think the shares are worth more if Trump loses. If he wins, he'll probably go back on Twitter using the POTUS tag, and that means that Truth Social is essentially worthless.
Down to $27.15 now. Question must be how many MAGAs are willing to keep buying as the price falls. Down roughly `16% in a day.
REAL question is, how many foreign BAD actors are willing to keep on subsidizing Trump in anticipation of (potential) future returns?
And whether Trump has managed to create the largest hole in the Election Finance rules in history with virtually no accountability for who is providing the money that indirectly funds him.
As an aside, it potentially makes all political donations tax free. You lose money on your shares... well *kaching* you've made a loss that you can offset against income.
You have to admit, its actually quite clever. The original gain for Trump was over $5bn. Its less than half of that now but it is still one of the biggest funding exercises ever for a political candidate.
A loopy Liz comeback as LOTO really would take the Tories into the wilderness for a decade...
She's be William Hague and IDS combined
I think it’s almost a given that they will be in the political wilderness for a decade. I’m increasingly thinking it will be 20 years before anyone in this country dares trust them again with the keys to No. 10.
People will look back on these as the Horror Years. Short of WWIII, which may yet happen, almost everything that could go wrong, did.
I’m still not entirely convinced that “The Conservative and Unionist Party” brand is going to survive. When a right wing party takes office again I could very much see it being under a different badge.
Nah, they're like cockroaches. They'll survive and come back. They always do.
.
Possibly.
Though I’ve not seen a party destroy itself quite so convincingly as the Tories in the last 4 years.
I do think the brand is shot, and it’ll take more than Cameroony trees and huskies and mood music to alter that now.
I think many thought that about Labour when Corbyn was "leader". All forgotten now of course. Well, until they get into power then many will remember that though the Tories have been shit recently, Labour always manages to outperform in general in it's incredible inability to run the mythological whelk stall.
True, but Labour had an advantage in that there will always be a bedrock of die hard support on the left that identifies with the “brand” and “movement” to keep the Labour Party alive in some guise or other, even if in disagreement with the leadership or policies.
Just anecdotally, I admit, I think there’s a lot of people who would have identified as Tory who are politically homeless now and will take a lot of convincing to vote for them again. Entirely possible they might, in time and with new leadership, but the way western politics is going we are seeing a realignment on the right. And there are a lot of voters in the Red Wall etc who may be completely turned off by the Tory brand now but who could easily drift towards a new right wing alliance.
Afternoon everyone. When this happened a week ago, along came two polls to mess it up but this time I think it will stand:
As of today 5 consecutive opinion polls have been published with Labour leads of 20%+ which is the first time this sequence has occurred since last September. The steady trend away from the Conservatives continues. For Rishi ‘things can only get worser’
This is silly. There's no huge change in the lead, and as soon as one of the pollsters who report a smaller lead than the other firms releases a new poll then your pattern will be broken.
If Opinium, or Savanta, release a poll with a >20% lead then that would be a change and would indicate a new pattern.
I made no great claims about it. I merely noted that it’s the first time since last September that 5 consecutive polls have given Labour a 20%+ lead.
So I don’t think it is “silly”. Sometimes when the pattern begins to form it takes a while for everyone to see it. Put more empirically, the Conservatives dropped another 2% in March. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
If a change happens then, thanks to you "noticing" it several previous times, you will claim to have greater perception than mundane other people. But at the moment all you have is an artifact of the publishing timetable of the forms with different biases. And so, yes, it is silly to make something of it, and particularly silly that you didn't learn your lesson from last week.
There is something of a pattern here though at the moment. Have a look at it:
I’m not saying it will continue to the point where there’s Reform-Conservative crossover but there is a pretty clear ongoing fall in support for the Conservatives.
Yes. Although you have to be careful with the endpoints of a LOESS smooth. They have a tendency to move when more data is added.
A loopy Liz comeback as LOTO really would take the Tories into the wilderness for a decade...
She's be William Hague and IDS combined
I think it’s almost a given that they will be in the political wilderness for a decade. I’m increasingly thinking it will be 20 years before anyone in this country dares trust them again with the keys to No. 10.
People will look back on these as the Horror Years. Short of WWIII, which may yet happen, almost everything that could go wrong, did.
I’m still not entirely convinced that “The Conservative and Unionist Party” brand is going to survive. When a right wing party takes office again I could very much see it being under a different badge.
Nah, they're like cockroaches. They'll survive and come back. They always do.
.
Possibly.
Though I’ve not seen a party destroy itself quite so convincingly as the Tories in the last 4 years.
I do think the brand is shot, and it’ll take more than Cameroony trees and huskies and mood music to alter that now.
They'll come back when Labour mess up and run out of money, as they always do in the end.
How long that takes remains to be seen.
You can't run out of money when there's none to start off with.
Only 42% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again—the joint-lowest percentage we’ve recorded since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister and just five points higher than the lowest percentage (37%) we’ve ever recorded (16 October 2022).
24% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote for Reform UK—a record high in our polling—18% would vote for Labour, and 7% would vote for other parties.
A loopy Liz comeback as LOTO really would take the Tories into the wilderness for a decade...
She's be William Hague and IDS combined
I think it’s almost a given that they will be in the political wilderness for a decade. I’m increasingly thinking it will be 20 years before anyone in this country dares trust them again with the keys to No. 10.
People will look back on these as the Horror Years. Short of WWIII, which may yet happen, almost everything that could go wrong, did.
I’m still not entirely convinced that “The Conservative and Unionist Party” brand is going to survive. When a right wing party takes office again I could very much see it being under a different badge.
Nah, they're like cockroaches. They'll survive and come back. They always do.
.
Possibly.
Though I’ve not seen a party destroy itself quite so convincingly as the Tories in the last 4 years.
I do think the brand is shot, and it’ll take more than Cameroony trees and huskies and mood music to alter that now.
They'll come back when Labour mess up and run out of money, as they always do in the end.
How long that takes remains to be seen.
You can't run out of money when there's none to start off with.
On topic, I won't be betting on it but I can imagine Liz Truss going for Conservative leader again. Amazing to say but I don't think she sees her period as PM as any sort of personal failure. It's about self-care, I suppose. Letting in too much challenging reality too quickly can be harmful to a person. Plus why should she anyway? There's no shortage of people in the party who inhabit the same fantasy world she does.
Uncannily, yesterday I was watching one of those Mentour Pilot videos. It was where the moral is the need for a capacity for self-criticism, else one ends up crashing the airliner vertically into a swamp full of crocodiles.
Could be one of two: Eastern Airlines 401 (a level CFIT due to absorption in another problem) or ValuJet 592 (near-vertical crash due to a fire). I'm not sure either were due to excess deference.
She has gone full on Trumpite saying Trump must win in November. Other Tories saying Trump must not win and some saying nothing to do with us guv.
The Tories are really idiotic if they think November is a good time to hold an election here. The main attention will go to Trump. The Tories are deeply and irreconcilably divided on Trump, so they will inevitably look like the divided party they are. And the Tories need attention domestically to somehow catch up in the polling.
As they are indeed idiotic expect a November election.
Trump is the Republican candidate, and the Republicans are the right of centre party. Furthermore, it is true that Biden has been one of the least supportive leaders to the UK, and that Trump has always been well-disposed toward the UK and has friends, business interests, and familial ties here. It seems a mark of polite society that we should all clutch our pearls at the very thought of him gaining the White House again - well that can fuck off.
Where "polite society" means "anybody with their head screwed on".
On topic, I won't be betting on it but I can imagine Liz Truss going for Conservative leader again. Amazing to say but I don't think she sees her period as PM as any sort of personal failure. It's about self-care, I suppose. Letting in too much challenging reality too quickly can be harmful to a person. Plus why should she anyway? There's no shortage of people in the party who inhabit the same fantasy world she does.
Uncannily, yesterday I was watching one of those Mentour Pilot videos. It was where the moral is the need for a capacity for self-criticism, else one ends up crashing the airliner vertically into a swamp full of crocodiles.
This attack heli video is a good one, too. Audio on to watch. Happily not fatal.
Only 42% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again—the joint-lowest percentage we’ve recorded since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister and just five points higher than the lowest percentage (37%) we’ve ever recorded (16 October 2022).
24% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote for Reform UK—a record high in our polling—18% would vote for Labour, and 7% would vote for other parties.
He may be right and it fizzles out but that there is a pattern continuing here is evident (for now).
You are misrepresenting me terribly. It's fucking rude.
I apologise if I was rude. I thought you were rude to me tbh describing me as ’silly’.
There is clearly a pattern here. I made no great shakes about it, merely pointing out that it’s the first time since last September that there have been 5 consecutive opinion polls showing Labour with 20% + leads. Make that now 6.
Only 42% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again—the joint-lowest percentage we’ve recorded since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister and just five points higher than the lowest percentage (37%) we’ve ever recorded (16 October 2022).
24% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote for Reform UK—a record high in our polling—18% would vote for Labour, and 7% would vote for other parties.
Data centers do not create thousands of jobs - once built it’s now got to the point that you don’t need to touch them until you deprecate the whole Centre and replace everything 5 years later
My bad. Misquoted the article. Says hundreds.
Still, nice to see something potentially happening there.
A loopy Liz comeback as LOTO really would take the Tories into the wilderness for a decade...
She's be William Hague and IDS combined
I think it’s almost a given that they will be in the political wilderness for a decade. I’m increasingly thinking it will be 20 years before anyone in this country dares trust them again with the keys to No. 10.
People will look back on these as the Horror Years. Short of WWIII, which may yet happen, almost everything that could go wrong, did.
I’m still not entirely convinced that “The Conservative and Unionist Party” brand is going to survive. When a right wing party takes office again I could very much see it being under a different badge.
Nah, they're like cockroaches. They'll survive and come back. They always do.
.
Possibly.
Though I’ve not seen a party destroy itself quite so convincingly as the Tories in the last 4 years.
I do think the brand is shot, and it’ll take more than Cameroony trees and huskies and mood music to alter that now.
They'll come back when Labour mess up and run out of money, as they always do in the end.
How long that takes remains to be seen.
Last time the Tories came back they messed up and ran out of money - indeed continue to run out of money to this day.
A loopy Liz comeback as LOTO really would take the Tories into the wilderness for a decade...
She's be William Hague and IDS combined
"Do not underestimate the determination of a crazy woman."
William, as a huge fan, and advocate of Liz Truss, would you agree that the time is now ripe for her to become PM, and indeed adopt all four great offices of state, simultaneously?
I submit that having others as Chancellor, Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary would serve only to diminish her, by diluting her brilliance with inferior minds.
Perhaps she might present her renaissance as a Presidency, or as The People's Queen? These are ideas with huge merit.
A loopy Liz comeback as LOTO really would take the Tories into the wilderness for a decade...
She's be William Hague and IDS combined
I think it’s almost a given that they will be in the political wilderness for a decade. I’m increasingly thinking it will be 20 years before anyone in this country dares trust them again with the keys to No. 10.
People will look back on these as the Horror Years. Short of WWIII, which may yet happen, almost everything that could go wrong, did.
I’m still not entirely convinced that “The Conservative and Unionist Party” brand is going to survive. When a right wing party takes office again I could very much see it being under a different badge.
Nah, they're like cockroaches. They'll survive and come back. They always do.
.
Possibly.
Though I’ve not seen a party destroy itself quite so convincingly as the Tories in the last 4 years.
I do think the brand is shot, and it’ll take more than Cameroony trees and huskies and mood music to alter that now.
I think many thought that about Labour when Corbyn was "leader". All forgotten now of course. Well, until they get into power then many will remember that though the Tories have been shit recently, Labour always manages to outperform in general in it's incredible inability to run the mythological whelk stall.
True, but Labour had an advantage in that there will always be a bedrock of die hard support on the left that identifies with the “brand” and “movement” to keep the Labour Party alive in some guise or other, even if in disagreement with the leadership or policies.
Just anecdotally, I admit, I think there’s a lot of people who would have identified as Tory who are politically homeless now and will take a lot of convincing to vote for them again. Entirely possible they might, in time and with new leadership, but the way western politics is going we are seeing a realignment on the right. And there are a lot of voters in the Red Wall etc who may be completely turned off by the Tory brand now but who could easily drift towards a new right wing alliance.
I used to be a Conservative activist of the very centrist variety. I stopped voting Tory when TMay started to pretend to be a hard Brexiter. I was even more repulsed by the joint comedy act of Johnson and Truss, both of whom should never have been allowed to get anywhere near high office. I will probably vote Tory at the next election because I fear the damage that Labour with a big majority will do.
As for the future, a lot will depend on how much of a pasting the Tories get. If the huge Labour majority fails to materialise and Mordaunt becomes leader (assuming she does not lose her seat) then she might reverse things. She would look pretty good to the public in contrast to boring old SKS if things get tough for him.
She has gone full on Trumpite saying Trump must win in November. Other Tories saying Trump must not win and some saying nothing to do with us guv.
The Tories are really idiotic if they think November is a good time to hold an election here. The main attention will go to Trump. The Tories are deeply and irreconcilably divided on Trump, so they will inevitably look like the divided party they are. And the Tories need attention domestically to somehow catch up in the polling.
As they are indeed idiotic expect a November election.
Trump is the Republican candidate, and the Republicans are the right of centre party. Furthermore, it is true that Biden has been one of the least supportive leaders to the UK, and that Trump has always been well-disposed toward the UK and has friends, business interests, and familial ties here. It seems a mark of polite society that we should all clutch our pearls at the very thought of him gaining the White House again - well that can fuck off.
Not a question of politeness, more an indication of either a disdain for democratic norms or a lack of intelligence, or both, they often go together.
Democratic norms dictate to me that we should accept whoever the Americans choose, not leave a puddle on the floor about how awful it all is.
Furthermore Liz Truss is absolutely right to bring the argument back to who has been more supportive to the UK - that's the only dog we have in this fight, and something too many of us are utterly blind to, either because we feel the national interest is a dirty concept, or because we're the sort of thicko who defaces the cenotaph because an American policman killed someone.
Bollocks. Should we accept whomever the Russians choose? Should we have accepted whom the 1930s Germans chose?
FFS, the man is a genuine fascist, we have every right to condemn the vile piece of shite. As for him being "more supportive to the UK" that is highly arguable, and even if it were true it does not make him remotely appropriate.
Oh, and I forgot to add that to his very long list of puke inducing vileness we should add that he sucks up to Putin. For what reasons, we can only guess.
A loopy Liz comeback as LOTO really would take the Tories into the wilderness for a decade...
She's be William Hague and IDS combined
I think it’s almost a given that they will be in the political wilderness for a decade. I’m increasingly thinking it will be 20 years before anyone in this country dares trust them again with the keys to No. 10.
People will look back on these as the Horror Years. Short of WWIII, which may yet happen, almost everything that could go wrong, did.
I’m still not entirely convinced that “The Conservative and Unionist Party” brand is going to survive. When a right wing party takes office again I could very much see it being under a different badge.
Nah, they're like cockroaches. They'll survive and come back. They always do.
.
Possibly.
Though I’ve not seen a party destroy itself quite so convincingly as the Tories in the last 4 years.
I do think the brand is shot, and it’ll take more than Cameroony trees and huskies and mood music to alter that now.
They'll come back when Labour mess up and run out of money, as they always do in the end.
How long that takes remains to be seen.
You can't run out of money when there's none to start off with.
Afternoon everyone. When this happened a week ago, along came two polls to mess it up but this time I think it will stand:
As of today 5 consecutive opinion polls have been published with Labour leads of 20%+ which is the first time this sequence has occurred since last September. The steady trend away from the Conservatives continues. For Rishi ‘things can only get worser’
This is silly. There's no huge change in the lead, and as soon as one of the pollsters who report a smaller lead than the other firms releases a new poll then your pattern will be broken.
If Opinium, or Savanta, release a poll with a >20% lead then that would be a change and would indicate a new pattern.
I made no great claims about it. I merely noted that it’s the first time since last September that 5 consecutive polls have given Labour a 20%+ lead.
So I don’t think it is “silly”. Sometimes when the pattern begins to form it takes a while for everyone to see it. Put more empirically, the Conservatives dropped another 2% in March. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
I would just comment that the polls seem remarkably steady with little overall change and Labour about 20% ahead
I see no reason for them to change before the election is called in the autumn
Hi Big G.
Based on recent polling, the continuing slide in their support, and the weakness of Sunak I think this Conservative slide is quite possibly going to continue.
There will be a floor of conservative support and the key, as it always has been, is the effect Reform will have on that support in a GE
I mean, given that you would imagine that Sunak and his wife will vote for themselves, the floor is 2 votes nationally. At which point I’ll take the charge of being silly.
More sensibly, what if we are wrong about this and there is no floor to their slide this side of the election?
On topic, I won't be betting on it but I can imagine Liz Truss going for Conservative leader again. Amazing to say but I don't think she sees her period as PM as any sort of personal failure. It's about self-care, I suppose. Letting in too much challenging reality too quickly can be harmful to a person. Plus why should she anyway? There's no shortage of people in the party who inhabit the same fantasy world she does.
Uncannily, yesterday I was watching one of those Mentour Pilot videos. It was where the moral is the need for a capacity for self-criticism, else one ends up crashing the airliner vertically into a swamp full of crocodiles.
This attack heli video is a good one, too. Audio on to watch. Happily not fatal.
A loopy Liz comeback as LOTO really would take the Tories into the wilderness for a decade...
She's be William Hague and IDS combined
I think it’s almost a given that they will be in the political wilderness for a decade. I’m increasingly thinking it will be 20 years before anyone in this country dares trust them again with the keys to No. 10.
People will look back on these as the Horror Years. Short of WWIII, which may yet happen, almost everything that could go wrong, did.
I’m still not entirely convinced that “The Conservative and Unionist Party” brand is going to survive. When a right wing party takes office again I could very much see it being under a different badge.
Nah, they're like cockroaches. They'll survive and come back. They always do.
.
Possibly.
Though I’ve not seen a party destroy itself quite so convincingly as the Tories in the last 4 years.
I do think the brand is shot, and it’ll take more than Cameroony trees and huskies and mood music to alter that now.
They'll come back when Labour mess up and run out of money, as they always do in the end.
How long that takes remains to be seen.
You can't run out of money when there's none to start off with.
Starmer leads Sunak on ALL 17 leadership characteristics polled, including:
Represents change (45% | 21%) Cares about people like me (40% | 20%) Can build a strong economy (39% | 30%) Can work well with foreign leaders (38% | 31%)
On topic, I won't be betting on it but I can imagine Liz Truss going for Conservative leader again. Amazing to say but I don't think she sees her period as PM as any sort of personal failure. It's about self-care, I suppose. Letting in too much challenging reality too quickly can be harmful to a person. Plus why should she anyway? There's no shortage of people in the party who inhabit the same fantasy world she does.
Uncannily, yesterday I was watching one of those Mentour Pilot videos. It was where the moral is the need for a capacity for self-criticism, else one ends up crashing the airliner vertically into a swamp full of crocodiles.
I love his videos. The new one on MH370 is pretty good.
A loopy Liz comeback as LOTO really would take the Tories into the wilderness for a decade...
She's be William Hague and IDS combined
"Do not underestimate the determination of a crazy woman."
William, as a huge fan, and advocate of Liz Truss, would you agree that the time is now ripe for her to become PM, and indeed adopt all four great offices of state, simultaneously?
I submit that having others as Chancellor, Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary would serve only to diminish her, by diluting her brilliance with inferior minds.
Perhaps she might present he renaissance as a Presidency, or as The People's Queen? These are ideas with huge merit.
The best model for her might be De Gaulle. Flaming out after a brief spell in office followed by a period in exile before reemerging as the only figure with the stature necessary to remake the state in his own image.
The time is not yet ripe, but eventually the people will clamour for her return.
Afternoon everyone. When this happened a week ago, along came two polls to mess it up but this time I think it will stand:
As of today 5 consecutive opinion polls have been published with Labour leads of 20%+ which is the first time this sequence has occurred since last September. The steady trend away from the Conservatives continues. For Rishi ‘things can only get worser’
This is silly. There's no huge change in the lead, and as soon as one of the pollsters who report a smaller lead than the other firms releases a new poll then your pattern will be broken.
If Opinium, or Savanta, release a poll with a >20% lead then that would be a change and would indicate a new pattern.
I made no great claims about it. I merely noted that it’s the first time since last September that 5 consecutive polls have given Labour a 20%+ lead.
So I don’t think it is “silly”. Sometimes when the pattern begins to form it takes a while for everyone to see it. Put more empirically, the Conservatives dropped another 2% in March. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
I would just comment that the polls seem remarkably steady with little overall change and Labour about 20% ahead
I see no reason for them to change before the election is called in the autumn
Hi Big G.
Based on recent polling, the continuing slide in their support, and the weakness of Sunak I think this Conservative slide is quite possibly going to continue.
There will be a floor of conservative support and the key, as it always has been, is the effect Reform will have on that support in a GE
I mean, Given that you would imagine that Sunak and his wife will vote for themselves, the floor is 2 votes nationally. At which point I’ll take the charge of being silly.
More sensibly, what if we are wrong about this and there is no floor to their slide this side of the election?
It did happen in Canada.
Make that 4 votes as my wife and I would vote for Sunak, but the larger the predicted labour landslide the more likely conservatives will react and vote for the conservative party
Thoughts and prays for Lettuce Liz's poor parents. Committed socialists who managed to rear a daughter who now actively wants Trump to return to the White House.
AI Summary: The text discusses the fear of a second American Civil War due to the social divide between left and right. The upcoming election is seen as crucial, with Biden supporters fighting for democracy and Trump supporters fighting to save the country. The text also explores potential outcomes, including a focus on domestic issues and centralization of power. It highlights the weaknesses of the conservative faction, both physically and psychologically, in a civil war scenario. The text addresses the issue of insurgency and the challenges the right may face. It contrasts the right's civilian preparation with the left's strategic preparations. The text debunks false examples of asymmetrical warfare and provides a relevant example in Ukraine's war with Russia. Overall, it presents a detailed analysis of the risks and outcomes of a second Civil War, emphasizing the need for a realistic and strategic approach to conflict resolution.
My Commentary Realistic assessment by a right-wing US YouTuber and historian of the odds of a Civil War and who would win. TLDR: it's a stupid idea and the faction that starts it will lose.
They are looking at the wrong precedents. The second US civil war will not be an asymmetrical guerrilla war. Nor will it be a Russia:Ukraine style near-peer conflagration. It will be - indeed maybe already is - a cold war.
The US states are already lining up into broadly partisan parallel worlds separated by ideology, religion and way of life. Lawmakers are diverging from any kind of federal consensus on how to run things. Although voters are putting the brakes on some of this, notably on abortion rights, it continues to happen. In a cold war you get proxy battles in border states. In this US cold civil war the Vietnams or Afghanistans are taking place in courtrooms or on the Mexican border or outside abortion clinics.
So the second civil war is here, and it's a cold war.
It's hard to see how a hot civil war would work. America is divided by politics but not be geography. Even the reddest states are 25% blue, and vice versa.
She has gone full on Trumpite saying Trump must win in November. Other Tories saying Trump must not win and some saying nothing to do with us guv.
The Tories are really idiotic if they think November is a good time to hold an election here. The main attention will go to Trump. The Tories are deeply and irreconcilably divided on Trump, so they will inevitably look like the divided party they are. And the Tories need attention domestically to somehow catch up in the polling.
As they are indeed idiotic expect a November election.
Trump is the Republican candidate, and the Republicans are the right of centre party. Furthermore, it is true that Biden has been one of the least supportive leaders to the UK, and that Trump has always been well-disposed toward the UK and has friends, business interests, and familial ties here. It seems a mark of polite society that we should all clutch our pearls at the very thought of him gaining the White House again - well that can fuck off.
Not a question of politeness, more an indication of either a disdain for democratic norms or a lack of intelligence, or both, they often go together.
Democratic norms dictate to me that we should accept whoever the Americans choose, not leave a puddle on the floor about how awful it all is.
Furthermore Liz Truss is absolutely right to bring the argument back to who has been more supportive to the UK - that's the only dog we have in this fight, and something too many of us are utterly blind to, either because we feel the national interest is a dirty concept, or because we're the sort of thicko who defaces the cenotaph because an American policman killed someone.
Bollocks. Should we accept whomever the Russians choose? Should we have accepted whom the 1930s Germans chose?
FFS, the man is a genuine fascist, we have every right to condemn the vile piece of shite. As for him being "more supportive to the UK" that is highly arguable, and even if it were true it does not make him remotely appropriate.
Oh, and I forgot to add that to his very long list of puke inducing vileness we should add that he sucks up to Putin. For what reasons, we can only guess.
Yes, and yes - if they're elected legitimately.
I guess it depends on your definition of "accept". It seems that you and the lettuce do not "accept" Joe Biden. Although perhaps as an apologist for the orange Mussolini maybe you buy the Big Lie that Biden isn't legit?
Personally I do not and never will "accept" fascists, whether they have hoodwinked their electorates or not. I do not "accept" racists. I do not "accept" rapists. If politicians this side of the Atlantic wish to accept such scumbags then they are, in effect, endorsing their vile behaviour, and are low-life human beings.
Afternoon everyone. When this happened a week ago, along came two polls to mess it up but this time I think it will stand:
As of today 5 consecutive opinion polls have been published with Labour leads of 20%+ which is the first time this sequence has occurred since last September. The steady trend away from the Conservatives continues. For Rishi ‘things can only get worser’
This is silly. There's no huge change in the lead, and as soon as one of the pollsters who report a smaller lead than the other firms releases a new poll then your pattern will be broken.
If Opinium, or Savanta, release a poll with a >20% lead then that would be a change and would indicate a new pattern.
I made no great claims about it. I merely noted that it’s the first time since last September that 5 consecutive polls have given Labour a 20%+ lead.
So I don’t think it is “silly”. Sometimes when the pattern begins to form it takes a while for everyone to see it. Put more empirically, the Conservatives dropped another 2% in March. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
I would just comment that the polls seem remarkably steady with little overall change and Labour about 20% ahead
I see no reason for them to change before the election is called in the autumn
Hi Big G.
Based on recent polling, the continuing slide in their support, and the weakness of Sunak I think this Conservative slide is quite possibly going to continue.
There will be a floor of conservative support and the key, as it always has been, is the effect Reform will have on that support in a GE
I mean, Given that you would imagine that Sunak and his wife will vote for themselves, the floor is 2 votes nationally. At which point I’ll take the charge of being silly.
More sensibly, what if we are wrong about this and there is no floor to their slide this side of the election?
It did happen in Canada.
Make that 4 votes as my wife and I would vote for Sunak, but the larger the predicted labour landslide the more likely conservatives will react and vote for the party
I don’t know if the second half of that is proven?
Anecdotally I’ve never known such anti-Gov’t sentiment before. It’s vilification, bordering on hatred.
I think a LOT of people want to express their frustration and anger by giving the Conservatives a damn good kicking.
What is it with Tory ex-prime ministers? Edward Heath thought he might make a comeback, and now we have Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. One thing that can be said in favour of Rishi Sunak is that once he's deposed, which IMO will be within a month, he won't be talking about a second coming. He'll be off$ki.
Data centers do not create thousands of jobs - once built it’s now got to the point that you don’t need to touch them until you deprecate the whole Centre and replace everything 5 years later
My bad. Misquoted the article. Says hundreds.
Still, nice to see something potentially happening there.
For which read 200-300 jobs max - and its manual replace this machine with this replacement machine, connect a few cables and press a button work.
Which will be above minimum wage but won’t be massively paid
I will be curious to see if anyone takes it - the previous attempts up north have all failed for connectivity reasons, the cost is in the hardware so you may as well pay more in rents/ wages as in the scheme of things that’s inconsequential
Thoughts and prays for Lettuce Liz's poor parents. Committed socialists who managed to rear a daughter who now actively wants Trump to return to the White House.
It's something of a family tragedy. Her father is a maths professor at Leeds University.
On topic, I won't be betting on it but I can imagine Liz Truss going for Conservative leader again. Amazing to say but I don't think she sees her period as PM as any sort of personal failure. It's about self-care, I suppose. Letting in too much challenging reality too quickly can be harmful to a person. Plus why should she anyway? There's no shortage of people in the party who inhabit the same fantasy world she does.
Uncannily, yesterday I was watching one of those Mentour Pilot videos. It was where the moral is the need for a capacity for self-criticism, else one ends up crashing the airliner vertically into a swamp full of crocodiles.
Self-criticism, yes. But not an evidence-based acceptance that neither you nor your ideas have much merit. That can destroy self-esteem and leave you in a dark place. Liz Truss's doubling-down hyperactivity leaves no time for her to reflect properly on things and perhaps that's the point of it.
A loopy Liz comeback as LOTO really would take the Tories into the wilderness for a decade...
She's be William Hague and IDS combined
"Do not underestimate the determination of a crazy woman."
William, as a huge fan, and advocate of Liz Truss, would you agree that the time is now ripe for her to become PM, and indeed adopt all four great offices of state, simultaneously?
I submit that having others as Chancellor, Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary would serve only to diminish her, by diluting her brilliance with inferior minds.
Perhaps she might present he renaissance as a Presidency, or as The People's Queen? These are ideas with huge merit.
The best model for her might be De Gaulle. Flaming out after a brief spell in office followed by a period in exile before reemerging as the only figure with the stature necessary to remake the state in his own image.
The time is not yet ripe, but eventually the people will clamour for her return.
She did receive a lot of support in certain quarters of the press for her economic approach. The Telegraph in particular still argued that she was broadly correct.
I suspect that section of the media are continuing to feed her fantasy.
Only 42% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again—the joint-lowest percentage we’ve recorded since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister and just five points higher than the lowest percentage (37%) we’ve ever recorded (16 October 2022).
24% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote for Reform UK—a record high in our polling—18% would vote for Labour, and 7% would vote for other parties.
He may be right and it fizzles out but that there is a pattern continuing here is evident (for now).
You are misrepresenting me terribly. It's fucking rude.
I apologise if I was rude. I thought you were rude to me tbh describing me as ’silly’.
There is clearly a pattern here. I made no great shakes about it, merely pointing out that it’s the first time since last September that there have been 5 consecutive opinion polls showing Labour with 20% + leads. Make that now 6.
You don't know if there's a pattern because you don't know whether there's a poll with fieldwork in the middle of that sequence with a different house effect that would have the lead below 20%.
Regardless of what's happening with the polls the way in which you are looking at them leaves you open to being mislead by the chance of the order in which they are published.
And it's silly because the exact thing happened last week, but you haven't learned from that experience.
Afternoon everyone. When this happened a week ago, along came two polls to mess it up but this time I think it will stand:
As of today 5 consecutive opinion polls have been published with Labour leads of 20%+ which is the first time this sequence has occurred since last September. The steady trend away from the Conservatives continues. For Rishi ‘things can only get worser’
This is silly. There's no huge change in the lead, and as soon as one of the pollsters who report a smaller lead than the other firms releases a new poll then your pattern will be broken.
If Opinium, or Savanta, release a poll with a >20% lead then that would be a change and would indicate a new pattern.
I made no great claims about it. I merely noted that it’s the first time since last September that 5 consecutive polls have given Labour a 20%+ lead.
So I don’t think it is “silly”. Sometimes when the pattern begins to form it takes a while for everyone to see it. Put more empirically, the Conservatives dropped another 2% in March. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
I would just comment that the polls seem remarkably steady with little overall change and Labour about 20% ahead
I see no reason for them to change before the election is called in the autumn
Hi Big G.
Based on recent polling, the continuing slide in their support, and the weakness of Sunak I think this Conservative slide is quite possibly going to continue.
There will be a floor of conservative support and the key, as it always has been, is the effect Reform will have on that support in a GE
I mean, Given that you would imagine that Sunak and his wife will vote for themselves, the floor is 2 votes nationally. At which point I’ll take the charge of being silly.
More sensibly, what if we are wrong about this and there is no floor to their slide this side of the election?
It did happen in Canada.
Make that 4 votes as my wife and I would vote for Sunak
Afternoon everyone. When this happened a week ago, along came two polls to mess it up but this time I think it will stand:
As of today 5 consecutive opinion polls have been published with Labour leads of 20%+ which is the first time this sequence has occurred since last September. The steady trend away from the Conservatives continues. For Rishi ‘things can only get worser’
This is silly. There's no huge change in the lead, and as soon as one of the pollsters who report a smaller lead than the other firms releases a new poll then your pattern will be broken.
If Opinium, or Savanta, release a poll with a >20% lead then that would be a change and would indicate a new pattern.
I made no great claims about it. I merely noted that it’s the first time since last September that 5 consecutive polls have given Labour a 20%+ lead.
So I don’t think it is “silly”. Sometimes when the pattern begins to form it takes a while for everyone to see it. Put more empirically, the Conservatives dropped another 2% in March. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
I would just comment that the polls seem remarkably steady with little overall change and Labour about 20% ahead
I see no reason for them to change before the election is called in the autumn
Hi Big G.
Based on recent polling, the continuing slide in their support, and the weakness of Sunak I think this Conservative slide is quite possibly going to continue.
There will be a floor of conservative support and the key, as it always has been, is the effect Reform will have on that support in a GE
I mean, given that you would imagine that Sunak and his wife will vote for themselves, the floor is 2 votes nationally. At which point I’ll take the charge of being silly.
If his wife has a vote, that would be representation without taxation.
Afternoon everyone. When this happened a week ago, along came two polls to mess it up but this time I think it will stand:
As of today 5 consecutive opinion polls have been published with Labour leads of 20%+ which is the first time this sequence has occurred since last September. The steady trend away from the Conservatives continues. For Rishi ‘things can only get worser’
This is silly. There's no huge change in the lead, and as soon as one of the pollsters who report a smaller lead than the other firms releases a new poll then your pattern will be broken.
If Opinium, or Savanta, release a poll with a >20% lead then that would be a change and would indicate a new pattern.
I made no great claims about it. I merely noted that it’s the first time since last September that 5 consecutive polls have given Labour a 20%+ lead.
So I don’t think it is “silly”. Sometimes when the pattern begins to form it takes a while for everyone to see it. Put more empirically, the Conservatives dropped another 2% in March. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
I would just comment that the polls seem remarkably steady with little overall change and Labour about 20% ahead
I see no reason for them to change before the election is called in the autumn
Hi Big G.
Based on recent polling, the continuing slide in their support, and the weakness of Sunak I think this Conservative slide is quite possibly going to continue.
There will be a floor of conservative support and the key, as it always has been, is the effect Reform will have on that support in a GE
I mean, Given that you would imagine that Sunak and his wife will vote for themselves, the floor is 2 votes nationally. At which point I’ll take the charge of being silly.
More sensibly, what if we are wrong about this and there is no floor to their slide this side of the election?
It did happen in Canada.
Make that 4 votes as my wife and I would vote for Sunak, but the larger the predicted labour landslide the more likely conservatives will react and vote for the party
I don’t know if the second half of that is proven?
Anecdotally I’ve never known such anti-Gov’t sentiment before. It’s vilification, bordering on hatred.
I think a LOT of people want to express their frustration and anger by giving the Conservatives a damn good kicking.
I remember it similar in 1979 and in 1997 I actively supported Blair to throw out the conservatives for the first time in my life
A loopy Liz comeback as LOTO really would take the Tories into the wilderness for a decade...
She's be William Hague and IDS combined
"Do not underestimate the determination of a crazy woman."
William, as a huge fan, and advocate of Liz Truss, would you agree that the time is now ripe for her to become PM, and indeed adopt all four great offices of state, simultaneously?
I submit that having others as Chancellor, Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary would serve only to diminish her, by diluting her brilliance with inferior minds.
Perhaps she might present he renaissance as a Presidency, or as The People's Queen? These are ideas with huge merit.
The best model for her might be De Gaulle. Flaming out after a brief spell in office followed by a period in exile before reemerging as the only figure with the stature necessary to remake the state in his own image.
The time is not yet ripe, but eventually the people will clamour for her return.
Yes, perhaps one might call it The Second Coming of Truss?
Afternoon everyone. When this happened a week ago, along came two polls to mess it up but this time I think it will stand:
As of today 5 consecutive opinion polls have been published with Labour leads of 20%+ which is the first time this sequence has occurred since last September. The steady trend away from the Conservatives continues. For Rishi ‘things can only get worser’
This is silly. There's no huge change in the lead, and as soon as one of the pollsters who report a smaller lead than the other firms releases a new poll then your pattern will be broken.
If Opinium, or Savanta, release a poll with a >20% lead then that would be a change and would indicate a new pattern.
I made no great claims about it. I merely noted that it’s the first time since last September that 5 consecutive polls have given Labour a 20%+ lead.
So I don’t think it is “silly”. Sometimes when the pattern begins to form it takes a while for everyone to see it. Put more empirically, the Conservatives dropped another 2% in March. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
I would just comment that the polls seem remarkably steady with little overall change and Labour about 20% ahead
I see no reason for them to change before the election is called in the autumn
Hi Big G.
Based on recent polling, the continuing slide in their support, and the weakness of Sunak I think this Conservative slide is quite possibly going to continue.
There will be a floor of conservative support and the key, as it always has been, is the effect Reform will have on that support in a GE
I mean, Given that you would imagine that Sunak and his wife will vote for themselves, the floor is 2 votes nationally. At which point I’ll take the charge of being silly.
More sensibly, what if we are wrong about this and there is no floor to their slide this side of the election?
It did happen in Canada.
Make that 4 votes as my wife and I would vote for Sunak
Only 42% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again—the joint-lowest percentage we’ve recorded since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister and just five points higher than the lowest percentage (37%) we’ve ever recorded (16 October 2022).
24% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote for Reform UK—a record high in our polling—18% would vote for Labour, and 7% would vote for other parties.
He may be right and it fizzles out but that there is a pattern continuing here is evident (for now).
You are misrepresenting me terribly. It's fucking rude.
I apologise if I was rude. I thought you were rude to me tbh describing me as ’silly’.
There is clearly a pattern here. I made no great shakes about it, merely pointing out that it’s the first time since last September that there have been 5 consecutive opinion polls showing Labour with 20% + leads. Make that now 6.
You don't know if there's a pattern because you don't know whether there's a poll with fieldwork in the middle of that sequence with a different house effect that would have the lead below 20%.
Regardless of what's happening with the polls the way in which you are looking at them leaves you open to being mislead by the chance of the order in which they are published.
And it's silly because they exact thing happened last week., but you haven't learned from that experience.
Amount of unfunded tax cuts in Truss's minibudget: £45bn
Amount that the Treasury has spent so far paying the Bank of England's losses on its disastrous bond selloff: £50bn, could be further £40bn spent this year.
Amount of PBers furiously wanking themselves off about how disastrously awful Truss was and what personality disorders she must have not to realise it and go into permanent hiding: 534
Amount of PBers questioning the Bank's actions and the Treasury's bizarre policy of indemnifying them: 3
Afternoon everyone. When this happened a week ago, along came two polls to mess it up but this time I think it will stand:
As of today 5 consecutive opinion polls have been published with Labour leads of 20%+ which is the first time this sequence has occurred since last September. The steady trend away from the Conservatives continues. For Rishi ‘things can only get worser’
This is silly. There's no huge change in the lead, and as soon as one of the pollsters who report a smaller lead than the other firms releases a new poll then your pattern will be broken.
If Opinium, or Savanta, release a poll with a >20% lead then that would be a change and would indicate a new pattern.
I made no great claims about it. I merely noted that it’s the first time since last September that 5 consecutive polls have given Labour a 20%+ lead.
So I don’t think it is “silly”. Sometimes when the pattern begins to form it takes a while for everyone to see it. Put more empirically, the Conservatives dropped another 2% in March. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
I would just comment that the polls seem remarkably steady with little overall change and Labour about 20% ahead
I see no reason for them to change before the election is called in the autumn
Hi Big G.
Based on recent polling, the continuing slide in their support, and the weakness of Sunak I think this Conservative slide is quite possibly going to continue.
There will be a floor of conservative support and the key, as it always has been, is the effect Reform will have on that support in a GE
I mean, Given that you would imagine that Sunak and his wife will vote for themselves, the floor is 2 votes nationally. At which point I’ll take the charge of being silly.
More sensibly, what if we are wrong about this and there is no floor to their slide this side of the election?
It did happen in Canada.
Make that 4 votes as my wife and I would vote for Sunak
Why?
Why not
Okay, but why? You spend much of your time on here saying we need a change of government. Yet you plan to vote for the government.
On topic, I won't be betting on it but I can imagine Liz Truss going for Conservative leader again. Amazing to say but I don't think she sees her period as PM as any sort of personal failure. It's about self-care, I suppose. Letting in too much challenging reality too quickly can be harmful to a person. Plus why should she anyway? There's no shortage of people in the party who inhabit the same fantasy world she does.
Truss’ ability for self delusion is perhaps unmatched in politics, save for the Orange Menace on the other side of the pond.
Sometimes I wonder if it’s a coping mechanism. I mean, having that happen when she reached the top, it would be enough to give most people extreme mental distress. But then, she has always given off the vibe of someone who just clunks about not having the foggiest idea of what is going on around them, so maybe it’s just who she is.
Yes, that's what I was thinking - "it was the Blob what done it" - a way to process what would otherwise be difficult to live with.
But then again, as you say, she seems to have always been like this.
Only 42% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again—the joint-lowest percentage we’ve recorded since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister and just five points higher than the lowest percentage (37%) we’ve ever recorded (16 October 2022).
24% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote for Reform UK—a record high in our polling—18% would vote for Labour, and 7% would vote for other parties.
He may be right and it fizzles out but that there is a pattern continuing here is evident (for now).
You are misrepresenting me terribly. It's fucking rude.
I apologise if I was rude. I thought you were rude to me tbh describing me as ’silly’.
There is clearly a pattern here. I made no great shakes about it, merely pointing out that it’s the first time since last September that there have been 5 consecutive opinion polls showing Labour with 20% + leads. Make that now 6.
Your don't know if there's a pattern because you don't know whether there's a poll with fieldwork in the middle of that sequence with a different house effect that would have the lead below 20%.
Regardless of what's happening with the polls the way in which you are looking at them leaves you open to being mislead by the chance of the order in which they are published.
And it's silly because they exact thing happened last week., but you haven't learned from that experience.
Yes … and no. The two which messed up my little theory last week were BMG and Opinium. And I don’t think either of those are due in the current fieldwork data.
So I’ll stick with it. Six in a row for the first time since last September. Does it matter much? Not massively but if you set in the context of the graph I also posted, with which you agreed, there does seem to be a pattern at the moment. It’s not decisive. It’s not massive. But it’s a current long slow slide in Conservative support at the same time that Reform are rising, which is largely what’s responsible for Labour leads popping above 20% more consistently.
I’m guessing we can probably reach mutual agreement there, so I’ll leave it at that point and wish you peace with apologies for being rude earlier.
xx
p.s. and if a sub 20 breaker appears do feel free to have a good laugh at my expense
Only 42% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again—the joint-lowest percentage we’ve recorded since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister and just five points higher than the lowest percentage (37%) we’ve ever recorded (16 October 2022).
24% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote for Reform UK—a record high in our polling—18% would vote for Labour, and 7% would vote for other parties.
He may be right and it fizzles out but that there is a pattern continuing here is evident (for now).
You are misrepresenting me terribly. It's fucking rude.
I apologise if I was rude. I thought you were rude to me tbh describing me as ’silly’.
There is clearly a pattern here. I made no great shakes about it, merely pointing out that it’s the first time since last September that there have been 5 consecutive opinion polls showing Labour with 20% + leads. Make that now 6.
You don't know if there's a pattern because you don't know whether there's a poll with fieldwork in the middle of that sequence with a different house effect that would have the lead below 20%.
Regardless of what's happening with the polls the way in which you are looking at them leaves you open to being mislead by the chance of the order in which they are published.
And it's silly because they exact thing happened last week., but you haven't learned from that experience.
Not sure what you two are arguing about TBH.
We are arguing about the correct methods for making superficial analyses of opinion polls when one doesn't want to invest the effort required for a statistically correct treatment, and whether simply looking at the current running total of consecutive polls with a lead greater than an arbitrary threshold related to the number of fingers and toes on a standard human is sufficiently rigorous.
Put like that, the argument is a bit silly to be honest.
Afternoon everyone. When this happened a week ago, along came two polls to mess it up but this time I think it will stand:
As of today 5 consecutive opinion polls have been published with Labour leads of 20%+ which is the first time this sequence has occurred since last September. The steady trend away from the Conservatives continues. For Rishi ‘things can only get worser’
This is silly. There's no huge change in the lead, and as soon as one of the pollsters who report a smaller lead than the other firms releases a new poll then your pattern will be broken.
If Opinium, or Savanta, release a poll with a >20% lead then that would be a change and would indicate a new pattern.
I made no great claims about it. I merely noted that it’s the first time since last September that 5 consecutive polls have given Labour a 20%+ lead.
So I don’t think it is “silly”. Sometimes when the pattern begins to form it takes a while for everyone to see it. Put more empirically, the Conservatives dropped another 2% in March. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
I would just comment that the polls seem remarkably steady with little overall change and Labour about 20% ahead
I see no reason for them to change before the election is called in the autumn
Hi Big G.
Based on recent polling, the continuing slide in their support, and the weakness of Sunak I think this Conservative slide is quite possibly going to continue.
There will be a floor of conservative support and the key, as it always has been, is the effect Reform will have on that support in a GE
I mean, Given that you would imagine that Sunak and his wife will vote for themselves, the floor is 2 votes nationally. At which point I’ll take the charge of being silly.
More sensibly, what if we are wrong about this and there is no floor to their slide this side of the election?
It did happen in Canada.
Make that 4 votes as my wife and I would vote for Sunak, but the larger the predicted labour landslide the more likely conservatives will react and vote for the party
I don’t know if the second half of that is proven?
Anecdotally I’ve never known such anti-Gov’t sentiment before. It’s vilification, bordering on hatred.
I think a LOT of people want to express their frustration and anger by giving the Conservatives a damn good kicking.
Only 42% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again—the joint-lowest percentage we’ve recorded since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister and just five points higher than the lowest percentage (37%) we’ve ever recorded (16 October 2022).
24% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote for Reform UK—a record high in our polling—18% would vote for Labour, and 7% would vote for other parties.
He may be right and it fizzles out but that there is a pattern continuing here is evident (for now).
You are misrepresenting me terribly. It's fucking rude.
I apologise if I was rude. I thought you were rude to me tbh describing me as ’silly’.
There is clearly a pattern here. I made no great shakes about it, merely pointing out that it’s the first time since last September that there have been 5 consecutive opinion polls showing Labour with 20% + leads. Make that now 6.
You don't know if there's a pattern because you don't know whether there's a poll with fieldwork in the middle of that sequence with a different house effect that would have the lead below 20%.
Regardless of what's happening with the polls the way in which you are looking at them leaves you open to being mislead by the chance of the order in which they are published.
And it's silly because they exact thing happened last week., but you haven't learned from that experience.
Not sure what you two are arguing about TBH.
That made me laugh. It really is splitting hairs tbh!
Data centers do not create thousands of jobs - once built it’s now got to the point that you don’t need to touch them until you deprecate the whole Centre and replace everything 5 years later
Afternoon everyone. When this happened a week ago, along came two polls to mess it up but this time I think it will stand:
As of today 5 consecutive opinion polls have been published with Labour leads of 20%+ which is the first time this sequence has occurred since last September. The steady trend away from the Conservatives continues. For Rishi ‘things can only get worser’
This is silly. There's no huge change in the lead, and as soon as one of the pollsters who report a smaller lead than the other firms releases a new poll then your pattern will be broken.
If Opinium, or Savanta, release a poll with a >20% lead then that would be a change and would indicate a new pattern.
I made no great claims about it. I merely noted that it’s the first time since last September that 5 consecutive polls have given Labour a 20%+ lead.
So I don’t think it is “silly”. Sometimes when the pattern begins to form it takes a while for everyone to see it. Put more empirically, the Conservatives dropped another 2% in March. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
I would just comment that the polls seem remarkably steady with little overall change and Labour about 20% ahead
I see no reason for them to change before the election is called in the autumn
Hi Big G.
Based on recent polling, the continuing slide in their support, and the weakness of Sunak I think this Conservative slide is quite possibly going to continue.
There will be a floor of conservative support and the key, as it always has been, is the effect Reform will have on that support in a GE
I mean, Given that you would imagine that Sunak and his wife will vote for themselves, the floor is 2 votes nationally. At which point I’ll take the charge of being silly.
More sensibly, what if we are wrong about this and there is no floor to their slide this side of the election?
It did happen in Canada.
Make that 4 votes as my wife and I would vote for Sunak
Why?
Why not
Okay, but why? You spend much of your time on here saying we need a change of government. Yet you plan to vote for the government.
Odd.
Not really
I simply do not trust Starmer not to be taken left once in power, the Lib Dems are invisible, I do not support Plaid, so conservative is my natural home whilst they are led by Sunak
If Braverman, Johnson or Truss took over I would be politically homeless and would have to abstain
It is of no consequence anyway for GE24, as Labour will trounce the conservative in our constituency
On topic, I won't be betting on it but I can imagine Liz Truss going for Conservative leader again. Amazing to say but I don't think she sees her period as PM as any sort of personal failure. It's about self-care, I suppose. Letting in too much challenging reality too quickly can be harmful to a person. Plus why should she anyway? There's no shortage of people in the party who inhabit the same fantasy world she does.
Uncannily, yesterday I was watching one of those Mentour Pilot videos. It was where the moral is the need for a capacity for self-criticism, else one ends up crashing the airliner vertically into a swamp full of crocodiles.
I love his videos. The new one on MH370 is pretty good.
What's so interesting in those videos is that it's often not just the engineering bits but also the human engineering that is an essential part of the story. Being able to accept and act on someone disagreeing with you even when one is senior.
Afternoon everyone. When this happened a week ago, along came two polls to mess it up but this time I think it will stand:
As of today 5 consecutive opinion polls have been published with Labour leads of 20%+ which is the first time this sequence has occurred since last September. The steady trend away from the Conservatives continues. For Rishi ‘things can only get worser’
This is silly. There's no huge change in the lead, and as soon as one of the pollsters who report a smaller lead than the other firms releases a new poll then your pattern will be broken.
If Opinium, or Savanta, release a poll with a >20% lead then that would be a change and would indicate a new pattern.
I made no great claims about it. I merely noted that it’s the first time since last September that 5 consecutive polls have given Labour a 20%+ lead.
So I don’t think it is “silly”. Sometimes when the pattern begins to form it takes a while for everyone to see it. Put more empirically, the Conservatives dropped another 2% in March. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
I would just comment that the polls seem remarkably steady with little overall change and Labour about 20% ahead
I see no reason for them to change before the election is called in the autumn
Hi Big G.
Based on recent polling, the continuing slide in their support, and the weakness of Sunak I think this Conservative slide is quite possibly going to continue.
There will be a floor of conservative support and the key, as it always has been, is the effect Reform will have on that support in a GE
I mean, Given that you would imagine that Sunak and his wife will vote for themselves, the floor is 2 votes nationally. At which point I’ll take the charge of being silly.
More sensibly, what if we are wrong about this and there is no floor to their slide this side of the election?
It did happen in Canada.
Make that 4 votes as my wife and I would vote for Sunak, but the larger the predicted labour landslide the more likely conservatives will react and vote for the party
I don’t know if the second half of that is proven?
Anecdotally I’ve never known such anti-Gov’t sentiment before. It’s vilification, bordering on hatred.
I think a LOT of people want to express their frustration and anger by giving the Conservatives a damn good kicking.
Only 42% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again—the joint-lowest percentage we’ve recorded since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister and just five points higher than the lowest percentage (37%) we’ve ever recorded (16 October 2022).
24% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote for Reform UK—a record high in our polling—18% would vote for Labour, and 7% would vote for other parties.
He may be right and it fizzles out but that there is a pattern continuing here is evident (for now).
You are misrepresenting me terribly. It's fucking rude.
I apologise if I was rude. I thought you were rude to me tbh describing me as ’silly’.
There is clearly a pattern here. I made no great shakes about it, merely pointing out that it’s the first time since last September that there have been 5 consecutive opinion polls showing Labour with 20% + leads. Make that now 6.
You don't know if there's a pattern because you don't know whether there's a poll with fieldwork in the middle of that sequence with a different house effect that would have the lead below 20%.
Regardless of what's happening with the polls the way in which you are looking at them leaves you open to being mislead by the chance of the order in which they are published.
And it's silly because they exact thing happened last week., but you haven't learned from that experience.
Not sure what you two are arguing about TBH.
That made me laugh. It really is splitting hairs tbh!
Yes, even with the explanation from @LostPassword above it is a dispute esoteric in the extreme. Only on PB and all that.
"Trump appeared to be asleep. His head would fall down… He didn’t pay attention to a note his lawyer passed him. His jaw kept falling on his chest and his mouth kept going slack".
A loopy Liz comeback as LOTO really would take the Tories into the wilderness for a decade...
She's be William Hague and IDS combined
I think it’s almost a given that they will be in the political wilderness for a decade. I’m increasingly thinking it will be 20 years before anyone in this country dares trust them again with the keys to No. 10.
People will look back on these as the Horror Years. Short of WWIII, which may yet happen, almost everything that could go wrong, did.
I’m still not entirely convinced that “The Conservative and Unionist Party” brand is going to survive. When a right wing party takes office again I could very much see it being under a different badge.
Nah, they're like cockroaches. They'll survive and come back. They always do.
.
Possibly.
Though I’ve not seen a party destroy itself quite so convincingly as the Tories in the last 4 years.
I do think the brand is shot, and it’ll take more than Cameroony trees and huskies and mood music to alter that now.
I think many thought that about Labour when Corbyn was "leader". All forgotten now of course. Well, until they get into power then many will remember that though the Tories have been shit recently, Labour always manages to outperform in general in it's incredible inability to run the mythological whelk stall.
True, but Labour had an advantage in that there will always be a bedrock of die hard support on the left that identifies with the “brand” and “movement” to keep the Labour Party alive in some guise or other, even if in disagreement with the leadership or policies.
Just anecdotally, I admit, I think there’s a lot of people who would have identified as Tory who are politically homeless now and will take a lot of convincing to vote for them again. Entirely possible they might, in time and with new leadership, but the way western politics is going we are seeing a realignment on the right. And there are a lot of voters in the Red Wall etc who may be completely turned off by the Tory brand now but who could easily drift towards a new right wing alliance.
I used to be a Conservative activist of the very centrist variety. I stopped voting Tory when TMay started to pretend to be a hard Brexiter. I was even more repulsed by the joint comedy act of Johnson and Truss, both of whom should never have been allowed to get anywhere near high office. I will probably vote Tory at the next election because I fear the damage that Labour with a big majority will do.
As for the future, a lot will depend on how much of a pasting the Tories get. If the huge Labour majority fails to materialise and Mordaunt becomes leader (assuming she does not lose her seat) then she might reverse things. She would look pretty good to the public in contrast to boring old SKS if things get tough for him.
A week is a long time....etc.
One of the problems the Conservatives seem set to have is that right-of-centre Brits are divided into two groups. One group thinks 2010-15 was OK really, and everything since has been a downward slope followed by utter collapse. The other group hated the coalition years, didn't think much of TMexPM, and would like a repeat of the good bits of 2019-24, only this time with feeling. (I hope I'm being fair there- if someone wants to reframe the characterisation from the other side, be my guest.)
Unless someone can get both those groups back in the same tent, it's going to be hard to assemble an election-winning coalition. And right now, they don't understand each other and can't stand each other.
Afternoon everyone. When this happened a week ago, along came two polls to mess it up but this time I think it will stand:
As of today 5 consecutive opinion polls have been published with Labour leads of 20%+ which is the first time this sequence has occurred since last September. The steady trend away from the Conservatives continues. For Rishi ‘things can only get worser’
This is silly. There's no huge change in the lead, and as soon as one of the pollsters who report a smaller lead than the other firms releases a new poll then your pattern will be broken.
If Opinium, or Savanta, release a poll with a >20% lead then that would be a change and would indicate a new pattern.
I made no great claims about it. I merely noted that it’s the first time since last September that 5 consecutive polls have given Labour a 20%+ lead.
So I don’t think it is “silly”. Sometimes when the pattern begins to form it takes a while for everyone to see it. Put more empirically, the Conservatives dropped another 2% in March. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
I would just comment that the polls seem remarkably steady with little overall change and Labour about 20% ahead
I see no reason for them to change before the election is called in the autumn
Hi Big G.
Based on recent polling, the continuing slide in their support, and the weakness of Sunak I think this Conservative slide is quite possibly going to continue.
There will be a floor of conservative support and the key, as it always has been, is the effect Reform will have on that support in a GE
I mean, given that you would imagine that Sunak and his wife will vote for themselves, the floor is 2 votes nationally. At which point I’ll take the charge of being silly.
If his wife has a vote, that would be representation without taxation.
Er, *proportional* taxation, surely? I have no idea what Mrs S's tax affairs are, and the right-wing media seem rather less interested than in the ex-council house sale of a social care assistant a decade and more ago, but AIUI non-doms pay a flat rate.
"Trump appeared to be asleep. His head would fall down… He didn’t pay attention to a note his lawyer passed him. His jaw kept falling on his chest and his mouth kept going slack".
Afternoon everyone. When this happened a week ago, along came two polls to mess it up but this time I think it will stand:
As of today 5 consecutive opinion polls have been published with Labour leads of 20%+ which is the first time this sequence has occurred since last September. The steady trend away from the Conservatives continues. For Rishi ‘things can only get worser’
This is silly. There's no huge change in the lead, and as soon as one of the pollsters who report a smaller lead than the other firms releases a new poll then your pattern will be broken.
If Opinium, or Savanta, release a poll with a >20% lead then that would be a change and would indicate a new pattern.
I made no great claims about it. I merely noted that it’s the first time since last September that 5 consecutive polls have given Labour a 20%+ lead.
So I don’t think it is “silly”. Sometimes when the pattern begins to form it takes a while for everyone to see it. Put more empirically, the Conservatives dropped another 2% in March. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
I would just comment that the polls seem remarkably steady with little overall change and Labour about 20% ahead
I see no reason for them to change before the election is called in the autumn
Hi Big G.
Based on recent polling, the continuing slide in their support, and the weakness of Sunak I think this Conservative slide is quite possibly going to continue.
There will be a floor of conservative support and the key, as it always has been, is the effect Reform will have on that support in a GE
I mean, Given that you would imagine that Sunak and his wife will vote for themselves, the floor is 2 votes nationally. At which point I’ll take the charge of being silly.
More sensibly, what if we are wrong about this and there is no floor to their slide this side of the election?
It did happen in Canada.
Make that 4 votes as my wife and I would vote for Sunak
Why?
Why not
Okay, but why? You spend much of your time on here saying we need a change of government. Yet you plan to vote for the government.
Odd.
Not really
I simply do not trust Starmer not to be taken left once in power, the Lib Dems are invisible, I do not support Plaid, so conservative is my natural home whilst they are led by Sunak
If Braverman, Johnson or Truss took over I would be politically homeless and would have to abstain
It is of no consequence anyway for GE24, as Labour will trounce the conservative in our constituency
Similar to my position Big_G . I don't trust Starmer even though he is a massive improvement on his predecessor.
He is a man that appears to have only noticed that Corbyn was possibly an anti-Semite after the election that Labour lost. Clearly a man of high principle. Not.
Comments
She could re - join the Lib Dems and take on Ed Davey
But @LostPassword has his fingers in his ears
He may be right and it fizzles out but that there is a pattern continuing here is evident (for now).
FFS, the man is a genuine fascist, we have every right to condemn the vile piece of shite. As for him being "more supportive to the UK" that is highly arguable, and even if it were true it does not make him remotely appropriate.
Oh, and I forgot to add that to his very long list of puke inducing vileness we should add that he sucks up to Putin. For what reasons, we can only guess.
Sometimes I wonder if it’s a coping mechanism. I mean, having that happen when she reached the top, it would be enough to give most people extreme mental distress. But then, she has always given off the vibe of someone who just clunks about not having the foggiest idea of what is going on around them, so maybe it’s just who she is.
Based on recent polling, the continuing slide in their support, and the weakness of Sunak I think this Conservative slide is quite possibly going to continue.
Possibly.
Though I’ve not seen a party destroy itself quite so convincingly as the Tories in the last 4 years.
I do think the brand is shot, and it’ll take more than Cameroony trees and huskies and mood music to alter that now.
"Jaw-dropping" finding in @ScienceMagazine today shows certain chromosomes have telomere lengths that are consistently longer or shorter than others, shocking even @NobelPrize winner & telomere expert Carol Greider. Telomere length plays a role in longevity & cancer.
https://twitter.com/ucscgenomics/status/1778497389080326181
Discovered using the Oxford Nanopore Minion sequencer - which is one of their low end models, affordable by a large high school (and indeed used by some).
Support for more military help for Ukraine has risen from 33% in Feb to 42% now. Support for less military help has fallen from 28% to 22%.
On the other hand only 8% now think Ukraine can win the war (21% in August).
Also showing Pistorius again as the politician with the highest favourability.
Pistorius +1.7
Söder (CSU) -0.1
Then a whole bunch including Scholz and almost all the other party leaders between -0.6 and -0.8
Except Weidel (AfD) -2.7
(scale -5 to +5)
It seems that they are more looking at marking his card at this point than seeking substantial orders.
How long that takes remains to be seen.
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1779907573971406939
As far as I am concerned I am content with Sunak and Hunt as they have stabilised the economy, but also the alternatives are worse, much worse
Starmer will be PM with a large majority later this year, but I expect his opposition will come from within his large number of mps among many of whom are silently waiting to win and then will become vocal against his fiscal conservative leaning policies
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tO3keiCVljk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyuTyU_pK8s
Scoop via @BarakRavid:
Israel Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to Pentagon: No choice but to retaliate against Iran
Just anecdotally, I admit, I think there’s a lot of people who would have identified as Tory who are politically homeless now and will take a lot of convincing to vote for them again. Entirely possible they might, in time and with new leadership, but the way western politics is going we are seeing a realignment on the right. And there are a lot of voters in the Red Wall etc who may be completely turned off by the Tory brand now but who could easily drift towards a new right wing alliance.
Tories +1 in that latest Redfield & Wilton btw. Lol.
These are desperate times for the Conservatives.
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Happily not fatal.
Classic bit of aviation footage:
Pilot: Think we can make it through there?
Gunner: Nope.
Pilot: Oh ye of little faith, look how big that is.
https://twitter.com/DJSnM/status/1779620405860614626
There is clearly a pattern here. I made no great shakes about it, merely pointing out that it’s the first time since last September that there have been 5 consecutive opinion polls showing Labour with 20% + leads. Make that now 6.
Both Viewcode and myself wrote articles which Heathener decided were about trans issues despite neither being about trans
Still, nice to see something potentially happening there.
Also Sky defence analyst saying that the US noted that quite a few of Irans ballistic missiles misfired or did not function on their launch sites
I submit that having others as Chancellor, Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary would serve only to diminish her, by diluting her brilliance with inferior minds.
Perhaps she might present her renaissance as a Presidency, or as The People's Queen? These are ideas with huge merit.
As for the future, a lot will depend on how much of a pasting the Tories get. If the huge Labour majority fails to materialise and Mordaunt becomes leader (assuming she does not lose her seat) then she might reverse things. She would look pretty good to the public in contrast to boring old SKS if things get tough for him.
A week is a long time....etc.
More sensibly, what if we are wrong about this and there is no floor to their slide this side of the election?
It did happen in Canada.
"You're not going to make it, you're not going to make it...
...
"I really didn't think you were going to make that.
No, its ok, I'll get out your side."
Starmer vs Sunak (14 April):
Starmer leads Sunak on ALL 17 leadership characteristics polled, including:
Represents change (45% | 21%)
Cares about people like me (40% | 20%)
Can build a strong economy (39% | 30%)
Can work well with foreign leaders (38% | 31%)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5K9HBiJpuk
Source : Channel 12 News
https://x.com/DrEliDavid/status/1779913358277292371
The time is not yet ripe, but eventually the people will clamour for her return.
Personally I do not and never will "accept" fascists, whether they have hoodwinked their electorates or not. I do not "accept" racists. I do not "accept" rapists. If politicians this side of the Atlantic wish to accept such scumbags then they are, in effect, endorsing their vile behaviour, and are low-life human beings.
Anecdotally I’ve never known such anti-Gov’t sentiment before. It’s vilification, bordering on hatred.
I think a LOT of people want to express their frustration and anger by giving the Conservatives a damn good kicking.
Which will be above minimum wage but won’t be massively paid
I will be curious to see if anyone takes it - the previous attempts up north have all failed for connectivity reasons, the cost is in the hardware so you may as well pay more in rents/ wages as in the scheme of things that’s inconsequential
Fucking perilous moment. Probably happen tonight? Let's hope it is just that "surgical" strike and not some disastrous carpet bombing by mistake
A balanced view here.
https://x.com/ianbremmer/status/1779862992164966614?s=61
https://eps.leeds.ac.uk/maths/staff/4087/professor-j-k-truss
I suspect that section of the media are continuing to feed her fantasy.
Regardless of what's happening with the polls the way in which you are looking at them leaves you open to being mislead by the chance of the order in which they are published.
And it's silly because the exact thing happened last week, but you haven't learned from that experience.
Almost biblical in its gravity.
Amount that the Treasury has spent so far paying the Bank of England's losses on its disastrous bond selloff: £50bn, could be further £40bn spent this year.
Amount of PBers furiously wanking themselves off about how disastrously awful Truss was and what personality disorders she must have not to realise it and go into permanent hiding: 534
Amount of PBers questioning the Bank's actions and the Treasury's bizarre policy of indemnifying them: 3
Odd.
But then again, as you say, she seems to have always been like this.
Is Rishi Sunak going long on general election, as expected?
Tories have just opened accreditation for party conference in Birmingham for Sept 29 -Oct 2
It could easily be scrapped if Tories decide to go early, but it tallies with suggestions he wants November election
Rough timetable:
Early Sept: Autumn Statement
Sept 29: Tory conference
Nov 14: General election?
Would also allow for two potential interest rate cuts ahead of voters going to polls...
So I’ll stick with it. Six in a row for the first time since last September. Does it matter much? Not massively but if you set in the context of the graph I also posted, with which you agreed, there does seem to be a pattern at the moment. It’s not decisive. It’s not massive. But it’s a current long slow slide in Conservative support at the same time that Reform are rising, which is largely what’s responsible for Labour leads popping above 20% more consistently.
I’m guessing we can probably reach mutual agreement there, so I’ll leave it at that point and wish you peace with apologies for being rude earlier.
xx
p.s. and if a sub 20 breaker appears do feel free to have a good laugh at my expense
Put like that, the argument is a bit silly to be honest.
That made me laugh. It really is splitting hairs tbh!
I simply do not trust Starmer not to be taken left once in power, the Lib Dems are invisible, I do not support Plaid, so conservative is my natural home whilst they are led by Sunak
If Braverman, Johnson or Truss took over I would be politically homeless and would have to abstain
It is of no consequence anyway for GE24, as Labour will trounce the conservative in our constituency
Unless someone can get both those groups back in the same tent, it's going to be hard to assemble an election-winning coalition. And right now, they don't understand each other and can't stand each other.
He is a man that appears to have only noticed that Corbyn was possibly an anti-Semite after the election that Labour lost. Clearly a man of high principle. Not.