What’s this going to do to the May results? – politicalbetting.com

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

kle4 said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

kle4 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Angela Rayner may have fiddled herself 1000 odd quid, which is naughty, though hardly a King's ransome, but I can't get excited by this electoral roll nonsense. I've lived somewhere for years without telling the electoral roll. None of their business until I decide it's their business as far as I am concerned.

If the Tories go hard on this electoral roll stuff they'll make her a martyr.

Not even the Guido Fawkes report on the story thinks the electoral roll aspect is worth much attention, saying that it probably won't be recommended for prosecution and a perjury charge would be disporportionate, and saying both houses were in the same constituency so no political advantage to the situation.

A non story? From Guido? Really?

He thinks the council tax element is a story, but the electoral roll part not really. He's a partisan hack, but even partisan hacks have occasional nuance.

I'd say that if the positions were reversed and it was about a Tory Rayner would certainly claim it was worth looking into, so she will have to bear it and hopefully be absolved.

But the Police are investigating the electoral roll part. The tax part isn't being investigated by anyone!

He hopes to persuade the authorities otherwise clearly, banging on about things is what got the ball rolling in the first place after all.

I don't say there's anything in it, and obviously the motivation of the right will play into what they want to see just as it does in the other direction when there's an investigation, but I find the perceptions of the person who has pushed the story the most to be telling, in terms of what they think is juiciest part of the story.

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

kle4 said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

kle4 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Angela Rayner may have fiddled herself 1000 odd quid, which is naughty, though hardly a King's ransome, but I can't get excited by this electoral roll nonsense. I've lived somewhere for years without telling the electoral roll. None of their business until I decide it's their business as far as I am concerned.

If the Tories go hard on this electoral roll stuff they'll make her a martyr.

Not even the Guido Fawkes report on the story thinks the electoral roll aspect is worth much attention, saying that it probably won't be recommended for prosecution and a perjury charge would be disporportionate, and saying both houses were in the same constituency so no political advantage to the situation.

A non story? From Guido? Really?

He thinks the council tax element is a story, but the electoral roll part not really. He's a partisan hack, but even partisan hacks have occasional nuance.

I'd say that if the positions were reversed and it was about a Tory Rayner would certainly claim it was worth looking into, so she will have to bear it and hopefully be absolved.

But the Police are investigating the electoral roll part. The tax part isn't being investigated by anyone!

Perhaps James Daly and Paul Scully need to get their act together.

noneoftheabove said:

kle4 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Angela Rayner may have fiddled herself 1000 odd quid, which is naughty, though hardly a King's ransome, but I can't get excited by this electoral roll nonsense. I've lived somewhere for years without telling the electoral roll. None of their business until I decide it's their business as far as I am concerned.

If the Tories go hard on this electoral roll stuff they'll make her a martyr.

Not even the Guido Fawkes report on the story thinks the electoral roll aspect is worth much attention, saying that it probably won't be recommended for prosecution and a perjury charge would be disporportionate, and saying both houses were in the same constituency so no political advantage to the situation.

That is just pre-emptive mud slinging so when the police say no action, him and his mates can say no smoke without fire, bla, blah.

Could well be, but that's why it is interesting to see what is being claimed to be a big deal and what is not.

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 44% (-1)
CON: 24% (=)
REF: 11% (-2)
LDM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 6% (+1)
SNP: 2% (=)

Via
@wethinkpolling
, On 11-12 April,
Changes w/ 4-5 April.

https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1778832955378434485

That looks like MoE stuff to me.

I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.

The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.

You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?

"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."

https://www.sussex.ac.uk/broadcast/read/52513

There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.

The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.

Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.

The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…

Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?

Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.

Mexicanpete said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

kle4 said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

kle4 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Angela Rayner may have fiddled herself 1000 odd quid, which is naughty, though hardly a King's ransome, but I can't get excited by this electoral roll nonsense. I've lived somewhere for years without telling the electoral roll. None of their business until I decide it's their business as far as I am concerned.

If the Tories go hard on this electoral roll stuff they'll make her a martyr.

Not even the Guido Fawkes report on the story thinks the electoral roll aspect is worth much attention, saying that it probably won't be recommended for prosecution and a perjury charge would be disporportionate, and saying both houses were in the same constituency so no political advantage to the situation.

A non story? From Guido? Really?

He thinks the council tax element is a story, but the electoral roll part not really. He's a partisan hack, but even partisan hacks have occasional nuance.

I'd say that if the positions were reversed and it was about a Tory Rayner would certainly claim it was worth looking into, so she will have to bear it and hopefully be absolved.

But the Police are investigating the electoral roll part. The tax part isn't being investigated by anyone!

Perhaps James Daly and Paul Scully need to get their act together.

As Rayner might say .

Tory scum . The Tories need to stfu with their pathetic moral outrage . They backed Bozo .

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

kle4 said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

kle4 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Angela Rayner may have fiddled herself 1000 odd quid, which is naughty, though hardly a King's ransome, but I can't get excited by this electoral roll nonsense. I've lived somewhere for years without telling the electoral roll. None of their business until I decide it's their business as far as I am concerned.

If the Tories go hard on this electoral roll stuff they'll make her a martyr.

Not even the Guido Fawkes report on the story thinks the electoral roll aspect is worth much attention, saying that it probably won't be recommended for prosecution and a perjury charge would be disporportionate, and saying both houses were in the same constituency so no political advantage to the situation.

A non story? From Guido? Really?

He thinks the council tax element is a story, but the electoral roll part not really. He's a partisan hack, but even partisan hacks have occasional nuance.

I'd say that if the positions were reversed and it was about a Tory Rayner would certainly claim it was worth looking into, so she will have to bear it and hopefully be absolved.

But the Police are investigating the electoral roll part. The tax part isn't being investigated by anyone!

It probably doesn’t even matter if she’s charged or found guilty of anything now. The news is leading with “Angela Rayner, Labour, Police, Tax” etc etc. there will prob be a situation where she has registered different addresses for different things which in the big picture and in the minute law aren’t a big deal but it undermines her as an electoral asset.

If the Tories were any use (haha) they would have a whole social media plan worked out with her excoriating opponents about legal but questionable matters demanding they stand down etc to show her as a hypocrite.

People don’t like hypocrites. It’s really not a major issue what she’s done or not done but it’s a potential major issue politically. I think SKS would actually secretly be quite happy if he could get shot of her or at least reduce her power so he doesn’t have to give her a cabinet position.

It's the initial denial....

Benpointer said:

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 44% (-1)
CON: 24% (=)
REF: 11% (-2)
LDM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 6% (+1)
SNP: 2% (=)

Via
@wethinkpolling
, On 11-12 April,
Changes w/ 4-5 April.

https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1778832955378434485

That looks like MoE stuff to me.

I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.

The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.

You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?

"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."

https://www.sussex.ac.uk/broadcast/read/52513

There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.

The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.

Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.

The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…

Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?

Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.

The polls were already turning before the Falklands.

Longest Suicide Note In History.

I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.

IanB2 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Angela Rayner may have fiddled herself 1000 odd quid, which is naughty, though hardly a King's ransome, but I can't get excited by this electoral roll nonsense. I've lived somewhere for years without telling the electoral roll. None of their business until I decide it's their business as far as I am concerned.

If the Tories go hard on this electoral roll stuff they'll make her a martyr.

Not registering isn’t an offence, but registering somewhere that isn’t your main home now is. The days when landlords and second home owners could merrily register at all their properties are long gone.

No, not registering at your current address is an offence, one committed by what some estimate as 8 million UK citizens currently, some of whom will be people who were previously registered at another address but have since moved and have failed to inform the authorities. Whether it is a criminal or civil offence depends on whether false information was actively provided.

DavidL said:

Mexicanpete said:

DavidL said:

Mexicanpete said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

If Wes took over Labour will do very well indeed.

Streeting has been a bit disappointing of late.

On the other hand, an alleged Zionist is losing votes.

I am very fearful of a Conservative revival. The BBC were going on about the bangin' economy this morning. A whopping 0.1% growth for February and an uptick to 0.3% for January.

Should get 0.5% growth in Q1 which ends any question of a recession and makes the economy larger than Sunak inherited (at last). But it has been a very tough 12 months or so. This week we found that the UK had risen from 7th to 4th largest exporter in the world, mainly on the back of very strong financial services*. But we still run a very substantial trade deficit and productivity remains a weak spot.

*It should be blindingly obvious to everyone now that Brexit has not impinged adversely on UK exports but I really cannot be bothered arguing about this again. There is none so blind as those who will not see.

Call me blind if you like, but exporting manufactured widgets or consumables is down the pan over the last 5 years.

Its been crap for everyone as the west has teetered on the edge of a recession on the back of higher energy prices, market disruption and anti-inflation policies such as higher interest rates. But the UK seems to have been doing better than most and London, despite the gloom and doom, is just booming.

Port Talbot on the other hand has just had the coke ovens closed.

Malmesbury said:

Benpointer said:

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 44% (-1)
CON: 24% (=)
REF: 11% (-2)
LDM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 6% (+1)
SNP: 2% (=)

Via
@wethinkpolling
, On 11-12 April,
Changes w/ 4-5 April.

https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1778832955378434485

That looks like MoE stuff to me.

I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.

The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.

You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?

"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."

https://www.sussex.ac.uk/broadcast/read/52513

There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.

The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.

Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.

The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…

Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?

Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.

The polls were already turning before the Falklands.

Longest Suicide Note In History.

I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.

Kinnock wasn't the point, I think ?
The Falklands gave Thatcher a sufficient boost to kill the chances of the Alliance, and turn them into just a hindrance for Labour.

Without the Argentines, it might have been a three way fight, with the new party having a real chance.

Cleitophon said:

I just read that reform are unable to field candidates in more than 12% of the councils in the locals. That is crazy. They are supposed to be a national party 🤷 they seem to lack the capacity and professionalism to succeed in any way shape or form. I wonder how this will play out in the GE and what it means for the results in the locals?

Easier to come up with 650 candidates nationwide than getting candidates in even 10% of locals I'd expect - especially as if you could get 1-2 candidates but that's all in an area it may not be worth doing at all.

They've always been a top down kind of movement, trying to reach a point of national support where they suddenly break through in several places (as opposed to the Greens who have tried building up support in key areas to maximise chances of MPs despite relatively low polling).

UKIP managed 558 in 2010 and 624 in 2015. So Reform may not come up with the full number (minus Northern Ireland probably), but given how they are polling and the disaffected Tories wanting the party to get a kicking, I think they'd manage a pretty high number if they want.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Burgessian said:

On matters Scotch not sure if it's been already mentioned but Humza's run of council by-election fails has continued. And this time it was in a ward the SNP really should have won - Inverness South - in Drew Hendry's seat. LibDems surged past them, although an Independent actually won.

I had thought Hendry's seat, Inverness, Skye & Wester Ross, would be an SNP banker at the GE (one of the few), but I'm not so sure now. If the LibDems can persuade unionists they are the main challengers it could be close. There is a real sense that the Highlands are being neglected by ScotGov and its quite possible the voters will wreak some kind of vengeance. That said, I would still put Hendry as favourite, as I don't think the Tory vote will crumble to the extent it would need to. But remember, up til 2015 this area was represented by Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy.

This is the actual result (First Prefs):

Ind 22.1 % ( new Indy)
LD 19.7% (+11.1)
SNP 19.4% (-15.8)
Con 16.1% (-0.8)
Lab 11% (+3.7)
Green 7.2% (+1.8)
Alba 3.2% (+1.3)
Sov 1.2% ( new)



And this is the result if you take out the Independent and add his second prefs to the parties - makes it even worse for SNP:

Lib Dem 856 25.9% +12.0%
SNP 695 21.0% -20.0%
Conservative 650 19.7% -2.3%
Labour 447 13.5% +3.8%
Green 272 8.2% +1.4%
Alba 135 4.1% +1.8%
Sovereignty 66 2.0% New
Non-transferrable 184 5.6% +1.3%

As a matter of interest how would you describe the independent candidate politically ?

@Big_G_NorthWales Not sure TBH. He was endorsed by the existing Independent councillor which will have helped.

Quite a detailed preview of the by-election here. "Lean SNP" was the forecast.

https://ballotbox.scot/preview-inverness-south/

A lot hangs on the ghastly Rayner.... if she gets the boot things might change.....

squareroot2 said:

A lot hangs on the ghastly Rayner.... if she gets the boot things might change.....

Like what?

squareroot2 said:

A lot hangs on the ghastly Rayner.... if she gets the boot things might change.....

Excellent point. Er how?

Mexicanpete said:

squareroot2 said:

A lot hangs on the ghastly Rayner.... if she gets the boot things might change.....

Excellent point. Er how?

Take your blinkers off

Burgessian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Burgessian said:

On matters Scotch not sure if it's been already mentioned but Humza's run of council by-election fails has continued. And this time it was in a ward the SNP really should have won - Inverness South - in Drew Hendry's seat. LibDems surged past them, although an Independent actually won.

I had thought Hendry's seat, Inverness, Skye & Wester Ross, would be an SNP banker at the GE (one of the few), but I'm not so sure now. If the LibDems can persuade unionists they are the main challengers it could be close. There is a real sense that the Highlands are being neglected by ScotGov and its quite possible the voters will wreak some kind of vengeance. That said, I would still put Hendry as favourite, as I don't think the Tory vote will crumble to the extent it would need to. But remember, up til 2015 this area was represented by Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy.

This is the actual result (First Prefs):

Ind 22.1 % ( new Indy)
LD 19.7% (+11.1)
SNP 19.4% (-15.8)
Con 16.1% (-0.8)
Lab 11% (+3.7)
Green 7.2% (+1.8)
Alba 3.2% (+1.3)
Sov 1.2% ( new)



And this is the result if you take out the Independent and add his second prefs to the parties - makes it even worse for SNP:

Lib Dem 856 25.9% +12.0%
SNP 695 21.0% -20.0%
Conservative 650 19.7% -2.3%
Labour 447 13.5% +3.8%
Green 272 8.2% +1.4%
Alba 135 4.1% +1.8%
Sovereignty 66 2.0% New
Non-transferrable 184 5.6% +1.3%

As a matter of interest how would you describe the independent candidate politically ?

@Big_G_NorthWales Not sure TBH. He was endorsed by the existing Independent councillor which will have helped.

Quite a detailed preview of the by-election here. "Lean SNP" was the forecast.

https://ballotbox.scot/preview-inverness-south/

Thank you

squareroot2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

Mexicanpete said:

Anabobazina said:

eek said:

The time bar for Scully's complaint about Angela Raynor is 12 months from the commission of the alleged offence i.e. a year after delivery of her candidacy form. So this complaint is a decade out of date

So can Scully be prosecuted for wasting police time and it’s good to see that the best campaign story / argument / idea is to desperately attack someone for no valdi reason because Guido thinks it’s fun

It’s Rayner. R A Y N E R.

Why can’t PBers, for all their purported intelligence, GCSEs, A-Levels and degrees, even manage to spell the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party’s name?

Kier's deputy. That Reyna?

Oh how we laughed.

Change the record.

Speak for yourself. I have never had as many "likes".

You are a misery. Here's a fiver, get a pint on me. Oh wait you don't use cash...

I think we laugh because she is the Deputy.. its a sort of a female Prescott revisited. . Does she have any o levels?

I suspect she is far smarter than I am. Even if the gorgeous Scully fells her at the last hurdle, hats off to her she has done well for herself. Your analysis is actually quite depressing.

The joke was not about Rayner it was about Anabob's continued frustration with misspelt Labour leader's names

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Burgessian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Burgessian said:

On matters Scotch not sure if it's been already mentioned but Humza's run of council by-election fails has continued. And this time it was in a ward the SNP really should have won - Inverness South - in Drew Hendry's seat. LibDems surged past them, although an Independent actually won.

I had thought Hendry's seat, Inverness, Skye & Wester Ross, would be an SNP banker at the GE (one of the few), but I'm not so sure now. If the LibDems can persuade unionists they are the main challengers it could be close. There is a real sense that the Highlands are being neglected by ScotGov and its quite possible the voters will wreak some kind of vengeance. That said, I would still put Hendry as favourite, as I don't think the Tory vote will crumble to the extent it would need to. But remember, up til 2015 this area was represented by Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy.

This is the actual result (First Prefs):

Ind 22.1 % ( new Indy)
LD 19.7% (+11.1)
SNP 19.4% (-15.8)
Con 16.1% (-0.8)
Lab 11% (+3.7)
Green 7.2% (+1.8)
Alba 3.2% (+1.3)
Sov 1.2% ( new)



And this is the result if you take out the Independent and add his second prefs to the parties - makes it even worse for SNP:

Lib Dem 856 25.9% +12.0%
SNP 695 21.0% -20.0%
Conservative 650 19.7% -2.3%
Labour 447 13.5% +3.8%
Green 272 8.2% +1.4%
Alba 135 4.1% +1.8%
Sovereignty 66 2.0% New
Non-transferrable 184 5.6% +1.3%

As a matter of interest how would you describe the independent candidate politically ?

@Big_G_NorthWales Not sure TBH. He was endorsed by the existing Independent councillor which will have helped.

Quite a detailed preview of the by-election here. "Lean SNP" was the forecast.

https://ballotbox.scot/preview-inverness-south/

Thank you

The SNP are paying a price for kissing the Greens' , well, behind, in respect of not dualling the A9. North Scotland is not pleased.

Luckyguy1983 said:

DavidL said:

Mexicanpete said:

DavidL said:

Mexicanpete said:

DavidL said:

Mexicanpete said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

If Wes took over Labour will do very well indeed.

Streeting has been a bit disappointing of late.

On the other hand, an alleged Zionist is losing votes.

I am very fearful of a Conservative revival. The BBC were going on about the bangin' economy this morning. A whopping 0.1% growth for February and an uptick to 0.3% for January.

Should get 0.5% growth in Q1 which ends any question of a recession and makes the economy larger than Sunak inherited (at last). But it has been a very tough 12 months or so. This week we found that the UK had risen from 7th to 4th largest exporter in the world, mainly on the back of very strong financial services*. But we still run a very substantial trade deficit and productivity remains a weak spot.

*It should be blindingly obvious to everyone now that Brexit has not impinged adversely on UK exports but I really cannot be bothered arguing about this again. There is none so blind as those who will not see.

Call me blind if you like, but exporting manufactured widgets or consumables is down the pan over the last 5 years.

Its been crap for everyone as the west has teetered on the edge of a recession on the back of higher energy prices, market disruption and anti-inflation policies such as higher interest rates. But the UK seems to have been doing better than most and London, despite the gloom and doom, is just booming.

Port Talbot on the other hand has just had the coke ovens closed.

I know and that is yet another strategic error by a government who couldn't run a tea shop. We will pay for that in lost opportunities in car manufacturing, wind turbine construction and, if we ever get around to it, our new railways. We need a much more mercantilist government that didn't get taught and retaught the wonders of free trade and how we are all better off really, even if everything we buy is made elsewhere.

You're very lacking in cynicism if you think that a profound belief in Smithian free trade is behind sell off Britain.

I am well known for my innocence and naivety.

DavidL said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

DavidL said:

Mexicanpete said:

DavidL said:

Mexicanpete said:

DavidL said:

Mexicanpete said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

If Wes took over Labour will do very well indeed.

Streeting has been a bit disappointing of late.

On the other hand, an alleged Zionist is losing votes.

I am very fearful of a Conservative revival. The BBC were going on about the bangin' economy this morning. A whopping 0.1% growth for February and an uptick to 0.3% for January.

Should get 0.5% growth in Q1 which ends any question of a recession and makes the economy larger than Sunak inherited (at last). But it has been a very tough 12 months or so. This week we found that the UK had risen from 7th to 4th largest exporter in the world, mainly on the back of very strong financial services*. But we still run a very substantial trade deficit and productivity remains a weak spot.

*It should be blindingly obvious to everyone now that Brexit has not impinged adversely on UK exports but I really cannot be bothered arguing about this again. There is none so blind as those who will not see.

Call me blind if you like, but exporting manufactured widgets or consumables is down the pan over the last 5 years.

Its been crap for everyone as the west has teetered on the edge of a recession on the back of higher energy prices, market disruption and anti-inflation policies such as higher interest rates. But the UK seems to have been doing better than most and London, despite the gloom and doom, is just booming.

Port Talbot on the other hand has just had the coke ovens closed.

I know and that is yet another strategic error by a government who couldn't run a tea shop. We will pay for that in lost opportunities in car manufacturing, wind turbine construction and, if we ever get around to it, our new railways. We need a much more mercantilist government that didn't get taught and retaught the wonders of free trade and how we are all better off really, even if everything we buy is made elsewhere.

You're very lacking in cynicism if you think that a profound belief in Smithian free trade is behind sell off Britain.

I am well known for my innocence and naivety.

Like TSE is for his modesty?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DavidL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Burgessian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Burgessian said:

On matters Scotch not sure if it's been already mentioned but Humza's run of council by-election fails has continued. And this time it was in a ward the SNP really should have won - Inverness South - in Drew Hendry's seat. LibDems surged past them, although an Independent actually won.

I had thought Hendry's seat, Inverness, Skye & Wester Ross, would be an SNP banker at the GE (one of the few), but I'm not so sure now. If the LibDems can persuade unionists they are the main challengers it could be close. There is a real sense that the Highlands are being neglected by ScotGov and its quite possible the voters will wreak some kind of vengeance. That said, I would still put Hendry as favourite, as I don't think the Tory vote will crumble to the extent it would need to. But remember, up til 2015 this area was represented by Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy.

This is the actual result (First Prefs):

Ind 22.1 % ( new Indy)
LD 19.7% (+11.1)
SNP 19.4% (-15.8)
Con 16.1% (-0.8)
Lab 11% (+3.7)
Green 7.2% (+1.8)
Alba 3.2% (+1.3)
Sov 1.2% ( new)



And this is the result if you take out the Independent and add his second prefs to the parties - makes it even worse for SNP:

Lib Dem 856 25.9% +12.0%
SNP 695 21.0% -20.0%
Conservative 650 19.7% -2.3%
Labour 447 13.5% +3.8%
Green 272 8.2% +1.4%
Alba 135 4.1% +1.8%
Sovereignty 66 2.0% New
Non-transferrable 184 5.6% +1.3%

As a matter of interest how would you describe the independent candidate politically ?

@Big_G_NorthWales Not sure TBH. He was endorsed by the existing Independent councillor which will have helped.

Quite a detailed preview of the by-election here. "Lean SNP" was the forecast.

https://ballotbox.scot/preview-inverness-south/

Thank you

The SNP are paying a price for kissing the Greens' , well, behind, in respect of not dualling the A9. North Scotland is not pleased.

It was ever thus

North Scotland has never been pleased?

https://twitter.com/nearlylegal/status/1778842021211353150

Unfortunately
@GuidoFawkes
doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.

So there are 3 arguments

The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway)
The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed
Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story

Luckyguy1983 said:

DavidL said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

DavidL said:

Mexicanpete said:

DavidL said:

Mexicanpete said:

DavidL said:

Mexicanpete said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

If Wes took over Labour will do very well indeed.

Streeting has been a bit disappointing of late.

On the other hand, an alleged Zionist is losing votes.

I am very fearful of a Conservative revival. The BBC were going on about the bangin' economy this morning. A whopping 0.1% growth for February and an uptick to 0.3% for January.

Should get 0.5% growth in Q1 which ends any question of a recession and makes the economy larger than Sunak inherited (at last). But it has been a very tough 12 months or so. This week we found that the UK had risen from 7th to 4th largest exporter in the world, mainly on the back of very strong financial services*. But we still run a very substantial trade deficit and productivity remains a weak spot.

*It should be blindingly obvious to everyone now that Brexit has not impinged adversely on UK exports but I really cannot be bothered arguing about this again. There is none so blind as those who will not see.

Call me blind if you like, but exporting manufactured widgets or consumables is down the pan over the last 5 years.

Its been crap for everyone as the west has teetered on the edge of a recession on the back of higher energy prices, market disruption and anti-inflation policies such as higher interest rates. But the UK seems to have been doing better than most and London, despite the gloom and doom, is just booming.

Port Talbot on the other hand has just had the coke ovens closed.

I know and that is yet another strategic error by a government who couldn't run a tea shop. We will pay for that in lost opportunities in car manufacturing, wind turbine construction and, if we ever get around to it, our new railways. We need a much more mercantilist government that didn't get taught and retaught the wonders of free trade and how we are all better off really, even if everything we buy is made elsewhere.

You're very lacking in cynicism if you think that a profound belief in Smithian free trade is behind sell off Britain.

I am well known for my innocence and naivety.

It does you credit.

Sadly, credit is what we are short of. About £80bn a year short. So have to keep selling all our assets until we do something about it.

Burgessian said:

Malmesbury said:

Nigelb said:

Malmesbury said:

Benpointer said:

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 44% (-1)
CON: 24% (=)
REF: 11% (-2)
LDM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 6% (+1)
SNP: 2% (=)

Via
@wethinkpolling
, On 11-12 April,
Changes w/ 4-5 April.

https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1778832955378434485

That looks like MoE stuff to me.

I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.

The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.

You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?

"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."

https://www.sussex.ac.uk/broadcast/read/52513

There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.

The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.

Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.

The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…

Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?

Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.

The polls were already turning before the Falklands.

Longest Suicide Note In History.

I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.

Kinnock wasn't the point, I think ?
The Falklands gave Thatcher a sufficient boost to kill the chances of the Alliance, and turn them into just a hindrance for Labour.

Without the Argentines, it might have been a three way fight, with the new party having a real chance.

The polling suggests that the Tory renewal was well under way before the Falklands invasion.

The experts (IIRC) on the time suggest that a lower majority for Thatcher at the next election, but a solid one, without the Falklands.

Yes, but the reputation she gained from the Falklands helped to sustain her right through the 87 election too. Her faults (stridency, unreasonableness, etc) were turned into virtues by the war. Her reputation as the Iron Lady was burnished. She was a resolute and successful war leader, not a hectoring wifey. Hugely significant.

Glorifying in slaughter did wonders for Thatcher's reputation.

Nigelb said:

Malmesbury said:

Nigelb said:

Malmesbury said:

Benpointer said:

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 44% (-1)
CON: 24% (=)
REF: 11% (-2)
LDM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 6% (+1)
SNP: 2% (=)

Via
@wethinkpolling
, On 11-12 April,
Changes w/ 4-5 April.

https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1778832955378434485

That looks like MoE stuff to me.

I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.

The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.

You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?

"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."

https://www.sussex.ac.uk/broadcast/read/52513

There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.

The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.

Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.

The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…

Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?

Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.

The polls were already turning before the Falklands.

Longest Suicide Note In History.

I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.

Kinnock wasn't the point, I think ?
The Falklands gave Thatcher a sufficient boost to kill the chances of the Alliance, and turn them into just a hindrance for Labour.

Without the Argentines, it might have been a three way fight, with the new party having a real chance.

The polling suggests that the Tory renewal was well under way before the Falklands invasion.

The experts (IIRC) on the time suggest that a lower majority for Thatcher at the next election, but a solid one, without the Falklands.

I don't think that's *known*, though.
It's was a pretty febrile time, and having lived through it, I don't think it's unreasonable to think there's a decent possibility the result might have been different.

And after all, the 'experts' were polling a situation outside of their experience.

I don't read statements saying experts say this or that.

The matter of the relative contributions of the SDP and the Falklands to Thatcher's 1983 election win can be debated forever.

But the two things aren't separate. The SDP's main selling point was that Labour were "bad on defence", meaning in effect soft on NATO and soft in another sense on Moscow. The SDP was practically a NATO PR job.

Then there was the Falklands war and the Tories wrapped themselves in "Defeat the Argies and watch out for Ken Livingstone because he doesn't like the queen, he calls the Falklands the Malvinas, and he probably wears hammer and sickle underpants". British-armed Argentina under Leopoldo Galtieri was nothing to do with Moscow or NATO, but in many voters' minds the war was in the same ballpark - the one called "defence".

Worth remembering that Tory voteshare FELL between 1979 and 1983.

MattW said:

Carnyx said:

Heathener said:

MattW said:

Heathener said:

Malmesbury said:

Heathener said:

Off topic, I came through London earlier. I’ve recently praised the city but this is pretty grim.

Most of that is because they are stripping the station out. Due to late running and early opening, the amount of time they have to actually do work is limited in the passenger accessible areas. So they have to work in small increments over months

Hence the boards with silver tape, new block work and the netting while they clear out stuff in what was the ceiling voids.

I mean, three of the seven pics were the grubby inside of a tube train but okay.

@Chris I’ve lived in London lots.

I guess when you return from the UAE, Qatar, or Singapore this kind of grubbiness hits you especially if you land at the increasingly grotty Heathrow.

What's HTB in that context?

I know lots of HTB acronyms, but none that would make sense there.

Uh? Has that transposed itself from a different message that someone else made?

HTB? Holy Trinity Brompton?

Edit: Oh!!!!!!!!!!!! The HTB daubed on the tube train!!! Haha. Good spot.

I don’t know?

That'll be the Boys Brigade from HTB. Out every evening to create havoc while singing 'Onward Christian Soldiers'.

Hmmm.

Havic: The Bothering, a parody card game
Heat loss due to linear thermal bridging (HTB)
Heavens to Betsy, a polite version of WTF.
Hierarchical token bucket, a computer networking algorithm
Hizb ut-Tahrir Britain, the UK branch of Islamist organisation Hizb ut-Tahrir
Holy Trinity Brompton, a church in London, England
Hokkaido Television Broadcasting, in Japan
Household Troops Band of the Salvation Army

Help To Buy

SandyRentool said:

Burgessian said:

Malmesbury said:

Nigelb said:

Malmesbury said:

Benpointer said:

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 44% (-1)
CON: 24% (=)
REF: 11% (-2)
LDM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 6% (+1)
SNP: 2% (=)

Via
@wethinkpolling
, On 11-12 April,
Changes w/ 4-5 April.

https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1778832955378434485

That looks like MoE stuff to me.

I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.

The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.

You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?

"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."

https://www.sussex.ac.uk/broadcast/read/52513

There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.

The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.

Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.

The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…

Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?

Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.

The polls were already turning before the Falklands.

Longest Suicide Note In History.

I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.

Kinnock wasn't the point, I think ?
The Falklands gave Thatcher a sufficient boost to kill the chances of the Alliance, and turn them into just a hindrance for Labour.

Without the Argentines, it might have been a three way fight, with the new party having a real chance.

The polling suggests that the Tory renewal was well under way before the Falklands invasion.

The experts (IIRC) on the time suggest that a lower majority for Thatcher at the next election, but a solid one, without the Falklands.

Yes, but the reputation she gained from the Falklands helped to sustain her right through the 87 election too. Her faults (stridency, unreasonableness, etc) were turned into virtues by the war. Her reputation as the Iron Lady was burnished. She was a resolute and successful war leader, not a hectoring wifey. Hugely significant.

Glorifying in slaughter did wonders for Thatcher's reputation.

Moronic comment

viewcode said:

MattW said:

Carnyx said:

Heathener said:

MattW said:

Heathener said:

Malmesbury said:

Heathener said:

Off topic, I came through London earlier. I’ve recently praised the city but this is pretty grim.

Most of that is because they are stripping the station out. Due to late running and early opening, the amount of time they have to actually do work is limited in the passenger accessible areas. So they have to work in small increments over months

Hence the boards with silver tape, new block work and the netting while they clear out stuff in what was the ceiling voids.

I mean, three of the seven pics were the grubby inside of a tube train but okay.

@Chris I’ve lived in London lots.

I guess when you return from the UAE, Qatar, or Singapore this kind of grubbiness hits you especially if you land at the increasingly grotty Heathrow.

What's HTB in that context?

I know lots of HTB acronyms, but none that would make sense there.

Uh? Has that transposed itself from a different message that someone else made?

HTB? Holy Trinity Brompton?

Edit: Oh!!!!!!!!!!!! The HTB daubed on the tube train!!! Haha. Good spot.

I don’t know?

That'll be the Boys Brigade from HTB. Out every evening to create havoc while singing 'Onward Christian Soldiers'.

Hmmm.

Havic: The Bothering, a parody card game
Heat loss due to linear thermal bridging (HTB)
Heavens to Betsy, a polite version of WTF.
Hierarchical token bucket, a computer networking algorithm
Hizb ut-Tahrir Britain, the UK branch of Islamist organisation Hizb ut-Tahrir
Holy Trinity Brompton, a church in London, England
Hokkaido Television Broadcasting, in Japan
Household Troops Band of the Salvation Army

Help To Buy

HTB is the code for Terre-de-Bas Airport in Saint Barthelemy.

The thing is, if the police clear Rayner of committing a criminal offence, I will not fully believe it.

But also, if the police say that Rayner committed a criminal offence, I will not fully believe it.

Because I simply do not trust the police when it comes to politics.

OldKingCole said:

Cleitophon said:

I just read that reform are unable to field candidates in more than 12% of the councils in the locals. That is crazy. They are supposed to be a national party 🤷 they seem to lack the capacity and professionalism to succeed in any way shape or form. I wonder how this will play out in the GE and what it means for the results in the locals?

Back in the 70’s the National Front were supposed to be the ‘coming thing’. As an Agent (for another party) I was summoned, with the other Political Agents to a meeting with the Returning Officer for our local Council prior to the election to be told which candidates would be on the ballot and which would not.
All the NF candidates were disqualified….. didn’t live in the Council’s area, those signing the forms didn’t and so on.
All my candidates were found to have complied with the regulations. Thankfully.

Not having the organisational framework and experience to make sure all candidates understand the importance of the rules and follow them does seem to be a problem for some of these parties. I remember a local UKIP council election candidate ending up pleading guilty to fraud for falsifying some signatures on their nomination papers some years back, for instance: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-23985090

viewcode said:

SandyRentool said:

viewcode said:

MattW said:

Carnyx said:

Heathener said:

MattW said:

Heathener said:

Malmesbury said:

Heathener said:

Off topic, I came through London earlier. I’ve recently praised the city but this is pretty grim.

Most of that is because they are stripping the station out. Due to late running and early opening, the amount of time they have to actually do work is limited in the passenger accessible areas. So they have to work in small increments over months

Hence the boards with silver tape, new block work and the netting while they clear out stuff in what was the ceiling voids.

I mean, three of the seven pics were the grubby inside of a tube train but okay.

@Chris I’ve lived in London lots.

I guess when you return from the UAE, Qatar, or Singapore this kind of grubbiness hits you especially if you land at the increasingly grotty Heathrow.

What's HTB in that context?

I know lots of HTB acronyms, but none that would make sense there.

Uh? Has that transposed itself from a different message that someone else made?

HTB? Holy Trinity Brompton?

Edit: Oh!!!!!!!!!!!! The HTB daubed on the tube train!!! Haha. Good spot.

I don’t know?

That'll be the Boys Brigade from HTB. Out every evening to create havoc while singing 'Onward Christian Soldiers'.

Hmmm.

Havic: The Bothering, a parody card game
Heat loss due to linear thermal bridging (HTB)
Heavens to Betsy, a polite version of WTF.
Hierarchical token bucket, a computer networking algorithm
Hizb ut-Tahrir Britain, the UK branch of Islamist organisation Hizb ut-Tahrir
Holy Trinity Brompton, a church in London, England
Hokkaido Television Broadcasting, in Japan
Household Troops Band of the Salvation Army

Help To Buy

HTB is the code for Terre-de-Bas Airport in Saint Barthelemy.

Good to know. If my train stops there knowing the code will help me. 😀

But it justifies the BTP organising a trip to Saint Barthelemy to try and track down the person responsible for the graffiti.

eek said:

Donkeys said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/nearlylegal/status/1778842021211353150

Unfortunately
@GuidoFawkes
doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.

So there are 3 arguments

The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway)
The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed
Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story

Ouch - embarrassing for Staines. I wonder how often he meets people who ever lived in council houses.
How can Rayner have committed election fraud when the two houses were in the same constituency?
"Minor amount" doesn't sound good politically though.

I said minor amount because the maximum amount owed is £1500

[Boris voice] Chickenfeed!

Burgessian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DavidL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Burgessian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Burgessian said:

On matters Scotch not sure if it's been already mentioned but Humza's run of council by-election fails has continued. And this time it was in a ward the SNP really should have won - Inverness South - in Drew Hendry's seat. LibDems surged past them, although an Independent actually won.

I had thought Hendry's seat, Inverness, Skye & Wester Ross, would be an SNP banker at the GE (one of the few), but I'm not so sure now. If the LibDems can persuade unionists they are the main challengers it could be close. There is a real sense that the Highlands are being neglected by ScotGov and its quite possible the voters will wreak some kind of vengeance. That said, I would still put Hendry as favourite, as I don't think the Tory vote will crumble to the extent it would need to. But remember, up til 2015 this area was represented by Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy.

This is the actual result (First Prefs):

Ind 22.1 % ( new Indy)
LD 19.7% (+11.1)
SNP 19.4% (-15.8)
Con 16.1% (-0.8)
Lab 11% (+3.7)
Green 7.2% (+1.8)
Alba 3.2% (+1.3)
Sov 1.2% ( new)



And this is the result if you take out the Independent and add his second prefs to the parties - makes it even worse for SNP:

Lib Dem 856 25.9% +12.0%
SNP 695 21.0% -20.0%
Conservative 650 19.7% -2.3%
Labour 447 13.5% +3.8%
Green 272 8.2% +1.4%
Alba 135 4.1% +1.8%
Sovereignty 66 2.0% New
Non-transferrable 184 5.6% +1.3%

As a matter of interest how would you describe the independent candidate politically ?

@Big_G_NorthWales Not sure TBH. He was endorsed by the existing Independent councillor which will have helped.

Quite a detailed preview of the by-election here. "Lean SNP" was the forecast.

https://ballotbox.scot/preview-inverness-south/

Thank you

The SNP are paying a price for kissing the Greens' , well, behind, in respect of not dualling the A9. North Scotland is not pleased.

It was ever thus

North Scotland has never been pleased?

I have travelled that road for over 60 years and it is a disgrace on Scotland's governments that the A9 is not dualled all the way

The A9 and A96 (Inverness to Aberdeen), along with the ferries, have become totemic issues in the North.

And after that, there's the social conservatism of the region to consider, and its reliance on oil and gas. Tough one for SNP candidates. They'll really need independence to become salient again.

Or an SNP not in love with the Greens or tholed to Central Belt politicians. Someone like Alex Salmond or Kate Forbes could do the job. The Yousaf, Sturgeon arseholes, not so much. The SNP need to get rid of their current leadership as much as the Tories need to get rid of theirs.

SandyRentool said:

The BBC article rather unhelpfully fails to indicate which laws may have been broken by Rayner and are the subject of the police investigation.

Dodging tax? Electoral fraud? Standing on the cracks in the pavement? Who can tell?

If it's representation of the people stuff there's a one year limit as John McTernan has been pointing out.

SandyRentool said:

Burgessian said:

Malmesbury said:

Nigelb said:

Malmesbury said:

Benpointer said:

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 44% (-1)
CON: 24% (=)
REF: 11% (-2)
LDM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 6% (+1)
SNP: 2% (=)

Via
@wethinkpolling
, On 11-12 April,
Changes w/ 4-5 April.

https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1778832955378434485

That looks like MoE stuff to me.

I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.

The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.

You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?

"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."

https://www.sussex.ac.uk/broadcast/read/52513

There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.

The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.

Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.

The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…

Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?

Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.

The polls were already turning before the Falklands.

Longest Suicide Note In History.

I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.

Kinnock wasn't the point, I think ?
The Falklands gave Thatcher a sufficient boost to kill the chances of the Alliance, and turn them into just a hindrance for Labour.

Without the Argentines, it might have been a three way fight, with the new party having a real chance.

The polling suggests that the Tory renewal was well under way before the Falklands invasion.

The experts (IIRC) on the time suggest that a lower majority for Thatcher at the next election, but a solid one, without the Falklands.

Yes, but the reputation she gained from the Falklands helped to sustain her right through the 87 election too. Her faults (stridency, unreasonableness, etc) were turned into virtues by the war. Her reputation as the Iron Lady was burnished. She was a resolute and successful war leader, not a hectoring wifey. Hugely significant.

Glorifying in slaughter did wonders for Thatcher's reputation.

Fewer people died in the entire Falklands War (907) than were killed by Hamas during the 7/10 attack (1,139).

Scott_xP said:

@AnushkaAsthana
Most folk in Downing Street and CCHQ will still make argument for an Autumn election- but sources tell me some v senior folk have made argument for alternative- calling it immediately after locals and holding on July 4

I am confident it will be in June or July and have been for some weeks.

eek said:

https://twitter.com/nearlylegal/status/1778842021211353150

Unfortunately
@GuidoFawkes
doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.

So there are 3 arguments

The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway)
The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed
Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story

So if that is the advice she has been given, publish it. We wait with baited breath…

turbotubbs said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/nearlylegal/status/1778842021211353150

Unfortunately
@GuidoFawkes
doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.

So there are 3 arguments

The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway)
The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed
Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story

So if that is the advice she has been given, publish it. We wait with baited breath…

She will hand it all to the Police and they will decide. Publishing it now is pointless, it would have made more sense to publish it at the beginning.

rottenborough said:

SandyRentool said:

The BBC article rather unhelpfully fails to indicate which laws may have been broken by Rayner and are the subject of the police investigation.

Dodging tax? Electoral fraud? Standing on the cracks in the pavement? Who can tell?

If it's representation of the people stuff there's a one year limit as John McTernan has been pointing out.

Investigating too late is very different to done nothing wrong.

She needs a full exoneration, not avoiding prosecution on a technicality.

"We wait with baited breath…" Good luck catching something.

Fairliered said:

Burgessian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DavidL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Burgessian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Burgessian said:

On matters Scotch not sure if it's been already mentioned but Humza's run of council by-election fails has continued. And this time it was in a ward the SNP really should have won - Inverness South - in Drew Hendry's seat. LibDems surged past them, although an Independent actually won.

I had thought Hendry's seat, Inverness, Skye & Wester Ross, would be an SNP banker at the GE (one of the few), but I'm not so sure now. If the LibDems can persuade unionists they are the main challengers it could be close. There is a real sense that the Highlands are being neglected by ScotGov and its quite possible the voters will wreak some kind of vengeance. That said, I would still put Hendry as favourite, as I don't think the Tory vote will crumble to the extent it would need to. But remember, up til 2015 this area was represented by Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy.

This is the actual result (First Prefs):

Ind 22.1 % ( new Indy)
LD 19.7% (+11.1)
SNP 19.4% (-15.8)
Con 16.1% (-0.8)
Lab 11% (+3.7)
Green 7.2% (+1.8)
Alba 3.2% (+1.3)
Sov 1.2% ( new)



And this is the result if you take out the Independent and add his second prefs to the parties - makes it even worse for SNP:

Lib Dem 856 25.9% +12.0%
SNP 695 21.0% -20.0%
Conservative 650 19.7% -2.3%
Labour 447 13.5% +3.8%
Green 272 8.2% +1.4%
Alba 135 4.1% +1.8%
Sovereignty 66 2.0% New
Non-transferrable 184 5.6% +1.3%

As a matter of interest how would you describe the independent candidate politically ?

@Big_G_NorthWales Not sure TBH. He was endorsed by the existing Independent councillor which will have helped.

Quite a detailed preview of the by-election here. "Lean SNP" was the forecast.

https://ballotbox.scot/preview-inverness-south/

Thank you

The SNP are paying a price for kissing the Greens' , well, behind, in respect of not dualling the A9. North Scotland is not pleased.

It was ever thus

North Scotland has never been pleased?

I have travelled that road for over 60 years and it is a disgrace on Scotland's governments that the A9 is not dualled all the way

The A9 and A96 (Inverness to Aberdeen), along with the ferries, have become totemic issues in the North.

And after that, there's the social conservatism of the region to consider, and its reliance on oil and gas. Tough one for SNP candidates. They'll really need independence to become salient again.

Or an SNP not in love with the Greens or tholed to Central Belt politicians. Someone like Alex Salmond or Kate Forbes could do the job. The Yousaf, Sturgeon arseholes, not so much. The SNP need to get rid of their current leadership as much as the Tories need to get rid of theirs.

It's going quite well for Kate Forbes. She missed a bullet at the leadership election and now has the happy prospect of the party turning to her when the Humza regime finally implodes. She'll most likely take over when the SNP are ejected from Govt at the next Holyrood elections. So a few years to wait which probably suits her given her family commitments.

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

turbotubbs said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/nearlylegal/status/1778842021211353150

Unfortunately
@GuidoFawkes
doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.

So there are 3 arguments

The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway)
The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed
Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story

So if that is the advice she has been given, publish it. We wait with baited breath…

She will hand it all to the Police and they will decide. Publishing it now is pointless, it would have made more sense to publish it at the beginning.

Agreed, so why didn’t she? Hoping it would go away?

turbotubbs said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

turbotubbs said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/nearlylegal/status/1778842021211353150

Unfortunately
@GuidoFawkes
doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.

So there are 3 arguments

The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway)
The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed
Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story

So if that is the advice she has been given, publish it. We wait with baited breath…

She will hand it all to the Police and they will decide. Publishing it now is pointless, it would have made more sense to publish it at the beginning.

Agreed, so why didn’t she? Hoping it would go away?

Presumably she was advised not to but it does not seem to have been wise.

Still, threatening to resign has been a very good play indeed.

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

turbotubbs said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/nearlylegal/status/1778842021211353150

Unfortunately
@GuidoFawkes
doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.

So there are 3 arguments

The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway)
The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed
Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story

So if that is the advice she has been given, publish it. We wait with baited breath…

Your breath may well be baited. If so, I'd advise buying some mints. The rest of as wait with bated breath.

Never knew that one was wrong. PB as always an education!

I have tried to resist sharing this straight line, but can no longer; In a March 19th NYT article on the return of female genital cutting in Gambia, I found this: 'Clerics in the Muslim world disagree on whether cutting is Islamic, but it is not in the Koran. The most vocal of the Gambian imans, Abdoule Fatty, has argued that "circumcision makes you cleaner" and has said the husbands of women who have not been cut suffer because they can not meet their wives' sexual appetities.'

(Try to keep the punch lines relatively clean.)

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DavidL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Burgessian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Burgessian said:

On matters Scotch not sure if it's been already mentioned but Humza's run of council by-election fails has continued. And this time it was in a ward the SNP really should have won - Inverness South - in Drew Hendry's seat. LibDems surged past them, although an Independent actually won.

I had thought Hendry's seat, Inverness, Skye & Wester Ross, would be an SNP banker at the GE (one of the few), but I'm not so sure now. If the LibDems can persuade unionists they are the main challengers it could be close. There is a real sense that the Highlands are being neglected by ScotGov and its quite possible the voters will wreak some kind of vengeance. That said, I would still put Hendry as favourite, as I don't think the Tory vote will crumble to the extent it would need to. But remember, up til 2015 this area was represented by Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy.

This is the actual result (First Prefs):

Ind 22.1 % ( new Indy)
LD 19.7% (+11.1)
SNP 19.4% (-15.8)
Con 16.1% (-0.8)
Lab 11% (+3.7)
Green 7.2% (+1.8)
Alba 3.2% (+1.3)
Sov 1.2% ( new)



And this is the result if you take out the Independent and add his second prefs to the parties - makes it even worse for SNP:

Lib Dem 856 25.9% +12.0%
SNP 695 21.0% -20.0%
Conservative 650 19.7% -2.3%
Labour 447 13.5% +3.8%
Green 272 8.2% +1.4%
Alba 135 4.1% +1.8%
Sovereignty 66 2.0% New
Non-transferrable 184 5.6% +1.3%

As a matter of interest how would you describe the independent candidate politically ?

@Big_G_NorthWales Not sure TBH. He was endorsed by the existing Independent councillor which will have helped.

Quite a detailed preview of the by-election here. "Lean SNP" was the forecast.

https://ballotbox.scot/preview-inverness-south/

Thank you

The SNP are paying a price for kissing the Greens' , well, behind, in respect of not dualling the A9. North Scotland is not pleased.

It was ever thus

North Scotland has never been pleased?

I have travelled that road for over 60 years and it is a disgrace on Scotland's governments that the A9 is not dualled all the way

You mean, to Scottish Labour and the Tories who voted to divert money from the A9 to Edinburgh trams.

I'm not sure this police investigation into whether Angela Rayner broke electoral law will get very far. When we found on C4 News in 2017 Stoke by-election that Ukip leader Paul Nuttall was registered at address he'd told me he'd never yet visited, Staffs police investigated & dropped the case.

https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1778841932967428178

Whomp whomp

SandyRentool said:

squareroot2 said:

SandyRentool said:

Burgessian said:

Malmesbury said:

Nigelb said:

Malmesbury said:

Benpointer said:

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 44% (-1)
CON: 24% (=)
REF: 11% (-2)
LDM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 6% (+1)
SNP: 2% (=)

Via
@wethinkpolling
, On 11-12 April,
Changes w/ 4-5 April.

https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1778832955378434485

That looks like MoE stuff to me.

I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.

The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.

You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?

"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."

https://www.sussex.ac.uk/broadcast/read/52513

There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.

The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.

Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.

The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…

Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?

Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.

The polls were already turning before the Falklands.

Longest Suicide Note In History.

I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.

Kinnock wasn't the point, I think ?
The Falklands gave Thatcher a sufficient boost to kill the chances of the Alliance, and turn them into just a hindrance for Labour.

Without the Argentines, it might have been a three way fight, with the new party having a real chance.

The polling suggests that the Tory renewal was well under way before the Falklands invasion.

The experts (IIRC) on the time suggest that a lower majority for Thatcher at the next election, but a solid one, without the Falklands.

Yes, but the reputation she gained from the Falklands helped to sustain her right through the 87 election too. Her faults (stridency, unreasonableness, etc) were turned into virtues by the war. Her reputation as the Iron Lady was burnished. She was a resolute and successful war leader, not a hectoring wifey. Hugely significant.

Glorifying in slaughter did wonders for Thatcher's reputation.

Moronic comment

Alas, it is you showing your ignorance, by being unaware of the reference I was alluding to:

Guardian - "In the 1983 election campaign, after the Falklands war, he [Denis Healey] accused Margaret Thatcher of “glorying in slaughter”, and had to withdraw the remark (he had meant to say “conflict”)."

You are being too clever. You should have alluded to the context