For some local knowledge, really hope people jump on Basingstoke turning red. I was there last weekend and I've never seen so many "vote Labour" signs.
I live near Basingstoke and drove through there on Monday and took the train from there too.
I didn't see a single one.
I'm almost tempted to travel to Basingstoke myself to unravel this mystery... Almost. Basingstoke would certainly be an unlikely Labour gain.
Can't see Basingstoke being fertile ground for Sir Keir. I've overheard people there express admiration for both Liz Truss and Vladimir Putin.
I presume YouGov prompts for Reform but even so it's another strong poll for Tice's party. The headline swing from Conservative to Labour is an eyewatering 19.5% - Techne's is 17%
The YouGov England sub sample is Labour 46%, Conservative 19%, Reform 16%, LDs 9% and Greens 8%. That means the Conservaties are down 28 and Labour up 12 so that's a 20% swing. The Con-LD swing is 15%. The regional sub samples confirm the strength of Reform outside London (just 6%).
The 2019 Conservative vote splits 33% Conservative, 23% Reform, 21% DK and 10% Labour. The Don't Knows amount for about 9% of the total electorate so not insignificant.
I wonder if the media and many senior politicians somewhat underrate Reform because Reform is so weak in London, and that's where the pundits mostly live?
That said, we're now coming across a sprinkling in canvassing but certainly less than 5%.
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That said, we're now coming across a sprinkling in canvassing but certainly less than 5%.