Angela Rayner may have fiddled herself 1000 odd quid, which is naughty, though hardly a King's ransome, but I can't get excited by this electoral roll nonsense. I've lived somewhere for years without telling the electoral roll. None of their business until I decide it's their business as far as I am concerned.
If the Tories go hard on this electoral roll stuff they'll make her a martyr.
Not even the Guido Fawkes report on the story thinks the electoral roll aspect is worth much attention, saying that it probably won't be recommended for prosecution and a perjury charge would be disporportionate, and saying both houses were in the same constituency so no political advantage to the situation.
A non story? From Guido? Really?
He thinks the council tax element is a story, but the electoral roll part not really. He's a partisan hack, but even partisan hacks have occasional nuance.
I'd say that if the positions were reversed and it was about a Tory Rayner would certainly claim it was worth looking into, so she will have to bear it and hopefully be absolved.
But the Police are investigating the electoral roll part. The tax part isn't being investigated by anyone!
He hopes to persuade the authorities otherwise clearly, banging on about things is what got the ball rolling in the first place after all.
I don't say there's anything in it, and obviously the motivation of the right will play into what they want to see just as it does in the other direction when there's an investigation, but I find the perceptions of the person who has pushed the story the most to be telling, in terms of what they think is juiciest part of the story.
On the other hand, an alleged Zionist is losing votes.
I am very fearful of a Conservative revival. The BBC were going on about the bangin' economy this morning. A whopping 0.1% growth for February and an uptick to 0.3% for January.
They were very full of beans about the economy on the radio just now. I wonder if they're on a 'Save Sunak' mission, as keeping him in situ is the best way to guarantee a stonking Labour win.
Angela Rayner may have fiddled herself 1000 odd quid, which is naughty, though hardly a King's ransome, but I can't get excited by this electoral roll nonsense. I've lived somewhere for years without telling the electoral roll. None of their business until I decide it's their business as far as I am concerned.
If the Tories go hard on this electoral roll stuff they'll make her a martyr.
Not even the Guido Fawkes report on the story thinks the electoral roll aspect is worth much attention, saying that it probably won't be recommended for prosecution and a perjury charge would be disporportionate, and saying both houses were in the same constituency so no political advantage to the situation.
A non story? From Guido? Really?
He thinks the council tax element is a story, but the electoral roll part not really. He's a partisan hack, but even partisan hacks have occasional nuance.
I'd say that if the positions were reversed and it was about a Tory Rayner would certainly claim it was worth looking into, so she will have to bear it and hopefully be absolved.
But the Police are investigating the electoral roll part. The tax part isn't being investigated by anyone!
Perhaps James Daly and Paul Scully need to get their act together.
Angela Rayner may have fiddled herself 1000 odd quid, which is naughty, though hardly a King's ransome, but I can't get excited by this electoral roll nonsense. I've lived somewhere for years without telling the electoral roll. None of their business until I decide it's their business as far as I am concerned.
If the Tories go hard on this electoral roll stuff they'll make her a martyr.
Not even the Guido Fawkes report on the story thinks the electoral roll aspect is worth much attention, saying that it probably won't be recommended for prosecution and a perjury charge would be disporportionate, and saying both houses were in the same constituency so no political advantage to the situation.
A perjury charge wouldn't be 'disproportionate' it would likely be entirely groundless.
Quibbling over language used is somewhat irrelevant to the point that even a very right wing commentator who loves a scandal doesn't seen that aspect of the story as worth pursuing. That seems like a sound reason it's not going to be worth the Tories going after that part of it at the very least.
Angela Rayner may have fiddled herself 1000 odd quid, which is naughty, though hardly a King's ransome, but I can't get excited by this electoral roll nonsense. I've lived somewhere for years without telling the electoral roll. None of their business until I decide it's their business as far as I am concerned.
If the Tories go hard on this electoral roll stuff they'll make her a martyr.
Not even the Guido Fawkes report on the story thinks the electoral roll aspect is worth much attention, saying that it probably won't be recommended for prosecution and a perjury charge would be disporportionate, and saying both houses were in the same constituency so no political advantage to the situation.
That is just pre-emptive mud slinging so when the police say no action, him and his mates can say no smoke without fire, bla, blah.
Could well be, but that's why it is interesting to see what is being claimed to be a big deal and what is not.
I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.
The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.
You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?
"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."
There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.
The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.
Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.
The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…
I'm getting the excuses in early this time.
One of the founders of the Bavarian Illuminati was from the family that still owns the company I work for.
I am an Evul Tory.
So come election day, we will instruct the Illuminati to instruct the Zeta Reticulans to instruct the Lizards in People Suits to do lots of voting by impersonation.
It’s trivial when you have lots of spare people suit in the closet.
I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.
The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.
You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?
"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."
There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.
The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.
Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.
The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…
Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?
Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.
Everyone assumes Keir Starmer wants to be PM. Perhaps he's wondering if there's a good path to resignation - his own. It was interesting that he wanted to resign after the Hartlepool by-election of May 2021.
Is there a market on who will lead Labour into the general election?
It seems like a post from May 2021 has taken three years to appear, are they using dial up?
The information about Starmer was revealed eight weeks ago:
Tip: think twice before posting sarcastic one-liners.
Yes but the idea Starmer doesn't want to be PM is palpably absurd as you well know.
He may do now, but whether he will have staying power when he and his government are pluming the depths of unpopularity in 2027 remains to be seen...
Indeed, I think Starmer could end up a 1 term PM, a UK Francois Hollande with Wes Streeting taking over from him before the general election after next
Only thing about Wes Streeting is he could find himself in a bit of trouble at Ilford North if Galloway's party really takes off while Lab are in government?
He will still hold it, Galloway wins by elections occasionally not much else
Well, the "not much else" included winning Bethnal Green & Bow at the 2005 General Election. A quite extraordinary achievement. But, yes, Wes Streeting is safe enough. Galloway's vote is very much a personal thing - won't translate to other candidates.
Angela Rayner may have fiddled herself 1000 odd quid, which is naughty, though hardly a King's ransome, but I can't get excited by this electoral roll nonsense. I've lived somewhere for years without telling the electoral roll. None of their business until I decide it's their business as far as I am concerned.
If the Tories go hard on this electoral roll stuff they'll make her a martyr.
Not even the Guido Fawkes report on the story thinks the electoral roll aspect is worth much attention, saying that it probably won't be recommended for prosecution and a perjury charge would be disporportionate, and saying both houses were in the same constituency so no political advantage to the situation.
A non story? From Guido? Really?
He thinks the council tax element is a story, but the electoral roll part not really. He's a partisan hack, but even partisan hacks have occasional nuance.
I'd say that if the positions were reversed and it was about a Tory Rayner would certainly claim it was worth looking into, so she will have to bear it and hopefully be absolved.
But the Police are investigating the electoral roll part. The tax part isn't being investigated by anyone!
Perhaps James Daly and Paul Scully need to get their act together.
As Rayner might say .
Tory scum . The Tories need to stfu with their pathetic moral outrage . They backed Bozo .
Angela Rayner may have fiddled herself 1000 odd quid, which is naughty, though hardly a King's ransome, but I can't get excited by this electoral roll nonsense. I've lived somewhere for years without telling the electoral roll. None of their business until I decide it's their business as far as I am concerned.
If the Tories go hard on this electoral roll stuff they'll make her a martyr.
Not even the Guido Fawkes report on the story thinks the electoral roll aspect is worth much attention, saying that it probably won't be recommended for prosecution and a perjury charge would be disporportionate, and saying both houses were in the same constituency so no political advantage to the situation.
A perjury charge wouldn't be 'disproportionate' it would likely be entirely groundless.
Quibbling over language used is somewhat irrelevant to the point that even a very right wing commentator who loves a scandal doesn't seen that aspect of the story as worth pursuing. That seems like a sound reason it's not going to be worth the Tories going after that part of it at the very least.
No, it's Guido trying to play being reasonable.
I'm not really sure where the disagreement is here. When commentators who are not known for playing reasonable do try to play being reasonable, that itself is worth noting I think.
It doesn't even have to be reasonable in such cases, but choosing when to attempt it is clearly a tactical choice, when they could just ignore bits they don't like, or just call black white and white black.
As I said, Guido is a partisan hack, everyone knows that, including him I'd bet, so he doesn't have to 'play being reasonable'. In which case why do so? And if he has, the Tories would probably be wise not to play it more unreasonably than even he is seeking to be.
Angela Rayner may have fiddled herself 1000 odd quid, which is naughty, though hardly a King's ransome, but I can't get excited by this electoral roll nonsense. I've lived somewhere for years without telling the electoral roll. None of their business until I decide it's their business as far as I am concerned.
If the Tories go hard on this electoral roll stuff they'll make her a martyr.
Not even the Guido Fawkes report on the story thinks the electoral roll aspect is worth much attention, saying that it probably won't be recommended for prosecution and a perjury charge would be disporportionate, and saying both houses were in the same constituency so no political advantage to the situation.
A non story? From Guido? Really?
He thinks the council tax element is a story, but the electoral roll part not really. He's a partisan hack, but even partisan hacks have occasional nuance.
I'd say that if the positions were reversed and it was about a Tory Rayner would certainly claim it was worth looking into, so she will have to bear it and hopefully be absolved.
But the Police are investigating the electoral roll part. The tax part isn't being investigated by anyone!
It probably doesn’t even matter if she’s charged or found guilty of anything now. The news is leading with “Angela Rayner, Labour, Police, Tax” etc etc. there will prob be a situation where she has registered different addresses for different things which in the big picture and in the minute law aren’t a big deal but it undermines her as an electoral asset.
If the Tories were any use (haha) they would have a whole social media plan worked out with her excoriating opponents about legal but questionable matters demanding they stand down etc to show her as a hypocrite.
People don’t like hypocrites. It’s really not a major issue what she’s done or not done but it’s a potential major issue politically. I think SKS would actually secretly be quite happy if he could get shot of her or at least reduce her power so he doesn’t have to give her a cabinet position.
The more salient point is that whatever the outcome (and I know which I think the more likely), it will benefit Starmer, who also "welcomes" the police investigation.
Other than getting a couple of media cycles of distraction out if it, I don't get why the Tories are making such a public show of impeaching her honesty.
Either they end up looking ridiculous, or Labour are rid of a problem before the election.
I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.
The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.
You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?
"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."
There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.
The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.
Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.
The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…
I'm getting the excuses in early this time.
One of the founders of the Bavarian Illuminati was from the family that still owns the company I work for.
I am an Evul Tory.
So come election day, we will instruct the Illuminati to instruct the Zeta Reticulans to instruct the Lizards in People Suits to do lots of voting by impersonation.
It’s trivial when you have lots of spare people suit in the closet.
I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.
The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.
You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?
"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."
There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.
The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.
Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.
The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…
Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?
Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.
The polls were already turning before the Falklands.
Longest Suicide Note In History.
I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.
On the other hand, an alleged Zionist is losing votes.
I am very fearful of a Conservative revival. The BBC were going on about the bangin' economy this morning. A whopping 0.1% growth for February and an uptick to 0.3% for January.
Should get 0.5% growth in Q1 which ends any question of a recession and makes the economy larger than Sunak inherited (at last). But it has been a very tough 12 months or so. This week we found that the UK had risen from 7th to 4th largest exporter in the world, mainly on the back of very strong financial services*. But we still run a very substantial trade deficit and productivity remains a weak spot.
*It should be blindingly obvious to everyone now that Brexit has not impinged adversely on UK exports but I really cannot be bothered arguing about this again. There is none so blind as those who will not see.
Call me blind if you like, but exporting manufactured widgets or consumables is down the pan over the last 5 years.
Its been crap for everyone as the west has teetered on the edge of a recession on the back of higher energy prices, market disruption and anti-inflation policies such as higher interest rates. But the UK seems to have been doing better than most and London, despite the gloom and doom, is just booming.
Angela Rayner may have fiddled herself 1000 odd quid, which is naughty, though hardly a King's ransome, but I can't get excited by this electoral roll nonsense. I've lived somewhere for years without telling the electoral roll. None of their business until I decide it's their business as far as I am concerned.
If the Tories go hard on this electoral roll stuff they'll make her a martyr.
Not registering isn’t an offence, but registering somewhere that isn’t your main home now is. The days when landlords and second home owners could merrily register at all their properties are long gone.
No, not registering at your current address is an offence, one committed by what some estimate as 8 million UK citizens currently, some of whom will be people who were previously registered at another address but have since moved and have failed to inform the authorities. Whether it is a criminal or civil offence depends on whether false information was actively provided.
I just read that reform are unable to field candidates in more than 12% of the councils in the locals. That is crazy. They are supposed to be a national party 🤷 they seem to lack the capacity and professionalism to succeed in any way shape or form. I wonder how this will play out in the GE and what it means for the results in the locals?
On the other hand, an alleged Zionist is losing votes.
I am very fearful of a Conservative revival. The BBC were going on about the bangin' economy this morning. A whopping 0.1% growth for February and an uptick to 0.3% for January.
Should get 0.5% growth in Q1 which ends any question of a recession and makes the economy larger than Sunak inherited (at last). But it has been a very tough 12 months or so. This week we found that the UK had risen from 7th to 4th largest exporter in the world, mainly on the back of very strong financial services*. But we still run a very substantial trade deficit and productivity remains a weak spot.
*It should be blindingly obvious to everyone now that Brexit has not impinged adversely on UK exports but I really cannot be bothered arguing about this again. There is none so blind as those who will not see.
Call me blind if you like, but exporting manufactured widgets or consumables is down the pan over the last 5 years.
Its been crap for everyone as the west has teetered on the edge of a recession on the back of higher energy prices, market disruption and anti-inflation policies such as higher interest rates. But the UK seems to have been doing better than most and London, despite the gloom and doom, is just booming.
Port Talbot on the other hand has just had the coke ovens closed.
Angela Rayner may have fiddled herself 1000 odd quid, which is naughty, though hardly a King's ransome, but I can't get excited by this electoral roll nonsense. I've lived somewhere for years without telling the electoral roll. None of their business until I decide it's their business as far as I am concerned.
If the Tories go hard on this electoral roll stuff they'll make her a martyr.
Not even the Guido Fawkes report on the story thinks the electoral roll aspect is worth much attention, saying that it probably won't be recommended for prosecution and a perjury charge would be disporportionate, and saying both houses were in the same constituency so no political advantage to the situation.
A non story? From Guido? Really?
He thinks the council tax element is a story, but the electoral roll part not really. He's a partisan hack, but even partisan hacks have occasional nuance.
I'd say that if the positions were reversed and it was about a Tory Rayner would certainly claim it was worth looking into, so she will have to bear it and hopefully be absolved.
But the Police are investigating the electoral roll part. The tax part isn't being investigated by anyone!
Perhaps James Daly and Paul Scully need to get their act together.
As Rayner might say .
Tory scum . The Tories need to stfu with their pathetic moral outrage . They backed Bozo .
Backing bozo will not be a panacea for any accusations which are thrown at Labour politicians.
It all comes down to the rule of thumb of if a party would kick up a fuss if it happened to one of their own. Would the Tories care if it was one of theirs? Gods no. Would Labour care if it was not one of theirs? Probably yes.
It sucks for those who have done nothing wrong when they get caught in some random mud slinging, but that's part of the price of being a high profile politician unfortunately - there's plenty who deserve to get hit by mud and are not, so for the clean you have to hope if you get some of the crossfire that you are vindicated as quickly as possible with as little impact as impossible.
I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.
The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.
You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?
"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."
There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.
The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.
Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.
The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…
Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?
Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.
The polls were already turning before the Falklands.
Longest Suicide Note In History.
I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.
Kinnock wasn't the point, I think ? The Falklands gave Thatcher a sufficient boost to kill the chances of the Alliance, and turn them into just a hindrance for Labour.
Without the Argentines, it might have been a three way fight, with the new party having a real chance.
The time bar for Scully's complaint about Angela Raynor is 12 months from the commission of the alleged offence i.e. a year after delivery of her candidacy form. So this complaint is a decade out of date
So can Scully be prosecuted for wasting police time and it’s good to see that the best campaign story / argument / idea is to desperately attack someone for no valdi reason because Guido thinks it’s fun
It’s Rayner. R A Y N E R.
Why can’t PBers, for all their purported intelligence, GCSEs, A-Levels and degrees, even manage to spell the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party’s name?
Kier's deputy. That Reyna?
Oh how we laughed.
Change the record.
Speak for yourself. I have never had as many "likes".
You are a misery. Here's a fiver, get a pint on me. Oh wait you don't use cash...
I just read that reform are unable to field candidates in more than 12% of the councils in the locals. That is crazy. They are supposed to be a national party 🤷 they seem to lack the capacity and professionalism to succeed in any way shape or form. I wonder how this will play out in the GE and what it means for the results in the locals?
Easier to come up with 650 candidates nationwide than getting candidates in even 10% of locals I'd expect - especially as if you could get 1-2 candidates but that's all in an area it may not be worth doing at all.
They've always been a top down kind of movement, trying to reach a point of national support where they suddenly break through in several places (as opposed to the Greens who have tried building up support in key areas to maximise chances of MPs despite relatively low polling).
UKIP managed 558 in 2010 and 624 in 2015. So Reform may not come up with the full number (minus Northern Ireland probably), but given how they are polling and the disaffected Tories wanting the party to get a kicking, I think they'd manage a pretty high number if they want.
I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.
The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.
You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?
"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."
There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.
The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.
Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.
The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…
Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?
Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.
The polls were already turning before the Falklands.
Longest Suicide Note In History.
I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.
Kinnock wasn't the point, I think ? The Falklands gave Thatcher a sufficient boost to kill the chances of the Alliance, and turn them into just a hindrance for Labour.
Without the Argentines, it might have been a three way fight, with the new party having a real chance.
The polling suggests that the Tory renewal was well under way before the Falklands invasion.
The experts (IIRC) on the time suggest that a lower majority for Thatcher at the next election, but a solid one, without the Falklands.
On matters Scotch not sure if it's been already mentioned but Humza's run of council by-election fails has continued. And this time it was in a ward the SNP really should have won - Inverness South - in Drew Hendry's seat. LibDems surged past them, although an Independent actually won.
I had thought Hendry's seat, Inverness, Skye & Wester Ross, would be an SNP banker at the GE (one of the few), but I'm not so sure now. If the LibDems can persuade unionists they are the main challengers it could be close. There is a real sense that the Highlands are being neglected by ScotGov and its quite possible the voters will wreak some kind of vengeance. That said, I would still put Hendry as favourite, as I don't think the Tory vote will crumble to the extent it would need to. But remember, up til 2015 this area was represented by Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy.
This is the actual result (First Prefs):
Ind 22.1 % ( new Indy) LD 19.7% (+11.1) SNP 19.4% (-15.8) Con 16.1% (-0.8) Lab 11% (+3.7) Green 7.2% (+1.8) Alba 3.2% (+1.3) Sov 1.2% ( new)
And this is the result if you take out the Independent and add his second prefs to the parties - makes it even worse for SNP:
Lib Dem 856 25.9% +12.0% SNP 695 21.0% -20.0% Conservative 650 19.7% -2.3% Labour 447 13.5% +3.8% Green 272 8.2% +1.4% Alba 135 4.1% +1.8% Sovereignty 66 2.0% New Non-transferrable 184 5.6% +1.3%
As a matter of interest how would you describe the independent candidate politically ?
@Big_G_NorthWales Not sure TBH. He was endorsed by the existing Independent councillor which will have helped.
Quite a detailed preview of the by-election here. "Lean SNP" was the forecast.
On the other hand, an alleged Zionist is losing votes.
I am very fearful of a Conservative revival. The BBC were going on about the bangin' economy this morning. A whopping 0.1% growth for February and an uptick to 0.3% for January.
Should get 0.5% growth in Q1 which ends any question of a recession and makes the economy larger than Sunak inherited (at last). But it has been a very tough 12 months or so. This week we found that the UK had risen from 7th to 4th largest exporter in the world, mainly on the back of very strong financial services*. But we still run a very substantial trade deficit and productivity remains a weak spot.
*It should be blindingly obvious to everyone now that Brexit has not impinged adversely on UK exports but I really cannot be bothered arguing about this again. There is none so blind as those who will not see.
Call me blind if you like, but exporting manufactured widgets or consumables is down the pan over the last 5 years.
Its been crap for everyone as the west has teetered on the edge of a recession on the back of higher energy prices, market disruption and anti-inflation policies such as higher interest rates. But the UK seems to have been doing better than most and London, despite the gloom and doom, is just booming.
Port Talbot on the other hand has just had the coke ovens closed.
I know and that is yet another strategic error by a government who couldn't run a tea shop. We will pay for that in lost opportunities in car manufacturing, wind turbine construction and, if we ever get around to it, our new railways. We need a much more mercantilist government that didn't get taught and retaught the wonders of free trade and how we are all better off really, even if everything we buy is made elsewhere.
I just read that reform are unable to field candidates in more than 12% of the councils in the locals. That is crazy. They are supposed to be a national party 🤷 they seem to lack the capacity and professionalism to succeed in any way shape or form. I wonder how this will play out in the GE and what it means for the results in the locals?
Back in the 70’s the National Front were supposed to be the ‘coming thing’. As an Agent (for another party) I was summoned, with the other Political Agents to a meeting with the Returning Officer for our local Council prior to the election to be told which candidates would be on the ballot and which would not. All the NF candidates were disqualified….. didn’t live in the Council’s area, those signing the forms didn’t and so on. All my candidates were found to have complied with the regulations. Thankfully.
I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.
The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.
You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?
"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."
There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.
The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.
Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.
The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…
Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?
Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.
The polls were already turning before the Falklands.
Longest Suicide Note In History.
I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.
Kinnock wasn't the point, I think ? The Falklands gave Thatcher a sufficient boost to kill the chances of the Alliance, and turn them into just a hindrance for Labour.
Without the Argentines, it might have been a three way fight, with the new party having a real chance.
And we wouldn't have had to wait another 23 years until we got sensible policies from the Coalition. Sigh.
The time bar for Scully's complaint about Angela Raynor is 12 months from the commission of the alleged offence i.e. a year after delivery of her candidacy form. So this complaint is a decade out of date
So can Scully be prosecuted for wasting police time and it’s good to see that the best campaign story / argument / idea is to desperately attack someone for no valdi reason because Guido thinks it’s fun
It’s Rayner. R A Y N E R.
Why can’t PBers, for all their purported intelligence, GCSEs, A-Levels and degrees, even manage to spell the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party’s name?
Kier's deputy. That Reyna?
Oh how we laughed.
Change the record.
Speak for yourself. I have never had as many "likes".
You are a misery. Here's a fiver, get a pint on me. Oh wait you don't use cash...
I think we laugh because she is the Deputy.. its a sort of a female Prescott revisited. . Does she have any o levels?
On matters Scotch not sure if it's been already mentioned but Humza's run of council by-election fails has continued. And this time it was in a ward the SNP really should have won - Inverness South - in Drew Hendry's seat. LibDems surged past them, although an Independent actually won.
I had thought Hendry's seat, Inverness, Skye & Wester Ross, would be an SNP banker at the GE (one of the few), but I'm not so sure now. If the LibDems can persuade unionists they are the main challengers it could be close. There is a real sense that the Highlands are being neglected by ScotGov and its quite possible the voters will wreak some kind of vengeance. That said, I would still put Hendry as favourite, as I don't think the Tory vote will crumble to the extent it would need to. But remember, up til 2015 this area was represented by Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy.
This is the actual result (First Prefs):
Ind 22.1 % ( new Indy) LD 19.7% (+11.1) SNP 19.4% (-15.8) Con 16.1% (-0.8) Lab 11% (+3.7) Green 7.2% (+1.8) Alba 3.2% (+1.3) Sov 1.2% ( new)
And this is the result if you take out the Independent and add his second prefs to the parties - makes it even worse for SNP:
Lib Dem 856 25.9% +12.0% SNP 695 21.0% -20.0% Conservative 650 19.7% -2.3% Labour 447 13.5% +3.8% Green 272 8.2% +1.4% Alba 135 4.1% +1.8% Sovereignty 66 2.0% New Non-transferrable 184 5.6% +1.3%
As a matter of interest how would you describe the independent candidate politically ?
@Big_G_NorthWales Not sure TBH. He was endorsed by the existing Independent councillor which will have helped.
Quite a detailed preview of the by-election here. "Lean SNP" was the forecast.
I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.
The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.
You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?
"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."
There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.
The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.
Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.
The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…
Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?
Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.
The polls were already turning before the Falklands.
Longest Suicide Note In History.
I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.
Kinnock wasn't the point, I think ? The Falklands gave Thatcher a sufficient boost to kill the chances of the Alliance, and turn them into just a hindrance for Labour.
Without the Argentines, it might have been a three way fight, with the new party having a real chance.
The polling suggests that the Tory renewal was well under way before the Falklands invasion.
The experts (IIRC) on the time suggest that a lower majority for Thatcher at the next election, but a solid one, without the Falklands.
I don't think that's *known*, though. It's was a pretty febrile time, and having lived through it, I don't think it's unreasonable to think there's a decent possibility the result might have been different.
And after all, the 'experts' were polling a situation outside of their experience.
The time bar for Scully's complaint about Angela Raynor is 12 months from the commission of the alleged offence i.e. a year after delivery of her candidacy form. So this complaint is a decade out of date
So can Scully be prosecuted for wasting police time and it’s good to see that the best campaign story / argument / idea is to desperately attack someone for no valdi reason because Guido thinks it’s fun
It’s Rayner. R A Y N E R.
Why can’t PBers, for all their purported intelligence, GCSEs, A-Levels and degrees, even manage to spell the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party’s name?
Kier's deputy. That Reyna?
Oh how we laughed.
Change the record.
Speak for yourself. I have never had as many "likes".
You are a misery. Here's a fiver, get a pint on me. Oh wait you don't use cash...
I think we laugh because she is the Deputy.. its a sort of a female Prescott revisited. . Does she have any o levels?
I suspect she is far smarter than I am. Even if the gorgeous Scully fells her at the last hurdle, hats off to her she has done well for herself. Your analysis is actually quite depressing.
The joke was not about Rayner it was about Anabob's continued frustration with misspelt Labour leader's names
I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.
The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.
You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?
"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."
There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.
The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.
Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.
The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…
Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?
Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.
The polls were already turning before the Falklands.
Longest Suicide Note In History.
I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.
Kinnock wasn't the point, I think ? The Falklands gave Thatcher a sufficient boost to kill the chances of the Alliance, and turn them into just a hindrance for Labour.
Without the Argentines, it might have been a three way fight, with the new party having a real chance.
The polling suggests that the Tory renewal was well under way before the Falklands invasion.
The experts (IIRC) on the time suggest that a lower majority for Thatcher at the next election, but a solid one, without the Falklands.
Yes, but the reputation she gained from the Falklands helped to sustain her right through the 87 election too. Her faults (stridency, unreasonableness, etc) were turned into virtues by the war. Her reputation as the Iron Lady was burnished. She was a resolute and successful war leader, not a hectoring wifey. Hugely significant.
On matters Scotch not sure if it's been already mentioned but Humza's run of council by-election fails has continued. And this time it was in a ward the SNP really should have won - Inverness South - in Drew Hendry's seat. LibDems surged past them, although an Independent actually won.
I had thought Hendry's seat, Inverness, Skye & Wester Ross, would be an SNP banker at the GE (one of the few), but I'm not so sure now. If the LibDems can persuade unionists they are the main challengers it could be close. There is a real sense that the Highlands are being neglected by ScotGov and its quite possible the voters will wreak some kind of vengeance. That said, I would still put Hendry as favourite, as I don't think the Tory vote will crumble to the extent it would need to. But remember, up til 2015 this area was represented by Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy.
This is the actual result (First Prefs):
Ind 22.1 % ( new Indy) LD 19.7% (+11.1) SNP 19.4% (-15.8) Con 16.1% (-0.8) Lab 11% (+3.7) Green 7.2% (+1.8) Alba 3.2% (+1.3) Sov 1.2% ( new)
And this is the result if you take out the Independent and add his second prefs to the parties - makes it even worse for SNP:
Lib Dem 856 25.9% +12.0% SNP 695 21.0% -20.0% Conservative 650 19.7% -2.3% Labour 447 13.5% +3.8% Green 272 8.2% +1.4% Alba 135 4.1% +1.8% Sovereignty 66 2.0% New Non-transferrable 184 5.6% +1.3%
As a matter of interest how would you describe the independent candidate politically ?
@Big_G_NorthWales Not sure TBH. He was endorsed by the existing Independent councillor which will have helped.
Quite a detailed preview of the by-election here. "Lean SNP" was the forecast.
On the other hand, an alleged Zionist is losing votes.
I am very fearful of a Conservative revival. The BBC were going on about the bangin' economy this morning. A whopping 0.1% growth for February and an uptick to 0.3% for January.
Should get 0.5% growth in Q1 which ends any question of a recession and makes the economy larger than Sunak inherited (at last). But it has been a very tough 12 months or so. This week we found that the UK had risen from 7th to 4th largest exporter in the world, mainly on the back of very strong financial services*. But we still run a very substantial trade deficit and productivity remains a weak spot.
*It should be blindingly obvious to everyone now that Brexit has not impinged adversely on UK exports but I really cannot be bothered arguing about this again. There is none so blind as those who will not see.
Call me blind if you like, but exporting manufactured widgets or consumables is down the pan over the last 5 years.
Its been crap for everyone as the west has teetered on the edge of a recession on the back of higher energy prices, market disruption and anti-inflation policies such as higher interest rates. But the UK seems to have been doing better than most and London, despite the gloom and doom, is just booming.
Port Talbot on the other hand has just had the coke ovens closed.
I know and that is yet another strategic error by a government who couldn't run a tea shop. We will pay for that in lost opportunities in car manufacturing, wind turbine construction and, if we ever get around to it, our new railways. We need a much more mercantilist government that didn't get taught and retaught the wonders of free trade and how we are all better off really, even if everything we buy is made elsewhere.
You're very lacking in cynicism if you think that a profound belief in Smithian free trade is behind sell off Britain.
On the other hand, an alleged Zionist is losing votes.
I am very fearful of a Conservative revival. The BBC were going on about the bangin' economy this morning. A whopping 0.1% growth for February and an uptick to 0.3% for January.
Should get 0.5% growth in Q1 which ends any question of a recession and makes the economy larger than Sunak inherited (at last). But it has been a very tough 12 months or so. This week we found that the UK had risen from 7th to 4th largest exporter in the world, mainly on the back of very strong financial services*. But we still run a very substantial trade deficit and productivity remains a weak spot.
*It should be blindingly obvious to everyone now that Brexit has not impinged adversely on UK exports but I really cannot be bothered arguing about this again. There is none so blind as those who will not see.
Call me blind if you like, but exporting manufactured widgets or consumables is down the pan over the last 5 years.
Its been crap for everyone as the west has teetered on the edge of a recession on the back of higher energy prices, market disruption and anti-inflation policies such as higher interest rates. But the UK seems to have been doing better than most and London, despite the gloom and doom, is just booming.
Port Talbot on the other hand has just had the coke ovens closed.
I know and that is yet another strategic error by a government who couldn't run a tea shop. We will pay for that in lost opportunities in car manufacturing, wind turbine construction and, if we ever get around to it, our new railways. We need a much more mercantilist government that didn't get taught and retaught the wonders of free trade and how we are all better off really, even if everything we buy is made elsewhere.
You're very lacking in cynicism if you think that a profound belief in Smithian free trade is behind sell off Britain.
On the other hand, an alleged Zionist is losing votes.
I am very fearful of a Conservative revival. The BBC were going on about the bangin' economy this morning. A whopping 0.1% growth for February and an uptick to 0.3% for January.
Should get 0.5% growth in Q1 which ends any question of a recession and makes the economy larger than Sunak inherited (at last). But it has been a very tough 12 months or so. This week we found that the UK had risen from 7th to 4th largest exporter in the world, mainly on the back of very strong financial services*. But we still run a very substantial trade deficit and productivity remains a weak spot.
*It should be blindingly obvious to everyone now that Brexit has not impinged adversely on UK exports but I really cannot be bothered arguing about this again. There is none so blind as those who will not see.
Call me blind if you like, but exporting manufactured widgets or consumables is down the pan over the last 5 years.
Its been crap for everyone as the west has teetered on the edge of a recession on the back of higher energy prices, market disruption and anti-inflation policies such as higher interest rates. But the UK seems to have been doing better than most and London, despite the gloom and doom, is just booming.
Port Talbot on the other hand has just had the coke ovens closed.
I know and that is yet another strategic error by a government who couldn't run a tea shop. We will pay for that in lost opportunities in car manufacturing, wind turbine construction and, if we ever get around to it, our new railways. We need a much more mercantilist government that didn't get taught and retaught the wonders of free trade and how we are all better off really, even if everything we buy is made elsewhere.
You're very lacking in cynicism if you think that a profound belief in Smithian free trade is behind sell off Britain.
On the other hand, an alleged Zionist is losing votes.
I am very fearful of a Conservative revival. The BBC were going on about the bangin' economy this morning. A whopping 0.1% growth for February and an uptick to 0.3% for January.
Should get 0.5% growth in Q1 which ends any question of a recession and makes the economy larger than Sunak inherited (at last). But it has been a very tough 12 months or so. This week we found that the UK had risen from 7th to 4th largest exporter in the world, mainly on the back of very strong financial services*. But we still run a very substantial trade deficit and productivity remains a weak spot.
*It should be blindingly obvious to everyone now that Brexit has not impinged adversely on UK exports but I really cannot be bothered arguing about this again. There is none so blind as those who will not see.
Call me blind if you like, but exporting manufactured widgets or consumables is down the pan over the last 5 years.
Its been crap for everyone as the west has teetered on the edge of a recession on the back of higher energy prices, market disruption and anti-inflation policies such as higher interest rates. But the UK seems to have been doing better than most and London, despite the gloom and doom, is just booming.
Port Talbot on the other hand has just had the coke ovens closed.
I know and that is yet another strategic error by a government who couldn't run a tea shop. We will pay for that in lost opportunities in car manufacturing, wind turbine construction and, if we ever get around to it, our new railways. We need a much more mercantilist government that didn't get taught and retaught the wonders of free trade and how we are all better off really, even if everything we buy is made elsewhere.
You're very lacking in cynicism if you think that a profound belief in Smithian free trade is behind sell off Britain.
On matters Scotch not sure if it's been already mentioned but Humza's run of council by-election fails has continued. And this time it was in a ward the SNP really should have won - Inverness South - in Drew Hendry's seat. LibDems surged past them, although an Independent actually won.
I had thought Hendry's seat, Inverness, Skye & Wester Ross, would be an SNP banker at the GE (one of the few), but I'm not so sure now. If the LibDems can persuade unionists they are the main challengers it could be close. There is a real sense that the Highlands are being neglected by ScotGov and its quite possible the voters will wreak some kind of vengeance. That said, I would still put Hendry as favourite, as I don't think the Tory vote will crumble to the extent it would need to. But remember, up til 2015 this area was represented by Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy.
This is the actual result (First Prefs):
Ind 22.1 % ( new Indy) LD 19.7% (+11.1) SNP 19.4% (-15.8) Con 16.1% (-0.8) Lab 11% (+3.7) Green 7.2% (+1.8) Alba 3.2% (+1.3) Sov 1.2% ( new)
And this is the result if you take out the Independent and add his second prefs to the parties - makes it even worse for SNP:
Lib Dem 856 25.9% +12.0% SNP 695 21.0% -20.0% Conservative 650 19.7% -2.3% Labour 447 13.5% +3.8% Green 272 8.2% +1.4% Alba 135 4.1% +1.8% Sovereignty 66 2.0% New Non-transferrable 184 5.6% +1.3%
As a matter of interest how would you describe the independent candidate politically ?
@Big_G_NorthWales Not sure TBH. He was endorsed by the existing Independent councillor which will have helped.
Quite a detailed preview of the by-election here. "Lean SNP" was the forecast.
On matters Scotch not sure if it's been already mentioned but Humza's run of council by-election fails has continued. And this time it was in a ward the SNP really should have won - Inverness South - in Drew Hendry's seat. LibDems surged past them, although an Independent actually won.
I had thought Hendry's seat, Inverness, Skye & Wester Ross, would be an SNP banker at the GE (one of the few), but I'm not so sure now. If the LibDems can persuade unionists they are the main challengers it could be close. There is a real sense that the Highlands are being neglected by ScotGov and its quite possible the voters will wreak some kind of vengeance. That said, I would still put Hendry as favourite, as I don't think the Tory vote will crumble to the extent it would need to. But remember, up til 2015 this area was represented by Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy.
This is the actual result (First Prefs):
Ind 22.1 % ( new Indy) LD 19.7% (+11.1) SNP 19.4% (-15.8) Con 16.1% (-0.8) Lab 11% (+3.7) Green 7.2% (+1.8) Alba 3.2% (+1.3) Sov 1.2% ( new)
And this is the result if you take out the Independent and add his second prefs to the parties - makes it even worse for SNP:
Lib Dem 856 25.9% +12.0% SNP 695 21.0% -20.0% Conservative 650 19.7% -2.3% Labour 447 13.5% +3.8% Green 272 8.2% +1.4% Alba 135 4.1% +1.8% Sovereignty 66 2.0% New Non-transferrable 184 5.6% +1.3%
As a matter of interest how would you describe the independent candidate politically ?
@Big_G_NorthWales Not sure TBH. He was endorsed by the existing Independent councillor which will have helped.
Quite a detailed preview of the by-election here. "Lean SNP" was the forecast.
On the other hand, an alleged Zionist is losing votes.
I am very fearful of a Conservative revival. The BBC were going on about the bangin' economy this morning. A whopping 0.1% growth for February and an uptick to 0.3% for January.
Should get 0.5% growth in Q1 which ends any question of a recession and makes the economy larger than Sunak inherited (at last). But it has been a very tough 12 months or so. This week we found that the UK had risen from 7th to 4th largest exporter in the world, mainly on the back of very strong financial services*. But we still run a very substantial trade deficit and productivity remains a weak spot.
*It should be blindingly obvious to everyone now that Brexit has not impinged adversely on UK exports but I really cannot be bothered arguing about this again. There is none so blind as those who will not see.
Call me blind if you like, but exporting manufactured widgets or consumables is down the pan over the last 5 years.
Its been crap for everyone as the west has teetered on the edge of a recession on the back of higher energy prices, market disruption and anti-inflation policies such as higher interest rates. But the UK seems to have been doing better than most and London, despite the gloom and doom, is just booming.
Port Talbot on the other hand has just had the coke ovens closed.
I know and that is yet another strategic error by a government who couldn't run a tea shop. We will pay for that in lost opportunities in car manufacturing, wind turbine construction and, if we ever get around to it, our new railways. We need a much more mercantilist government that didn't get taught and retaught the wonders of free trade and how we are all better off really, even if everything we buy is made elsewhere.
You're very lacking in cynicism if you think that a profound belief in Smithian free trade is behind sell off Britain.
Unfortunately @GuidoFawkes doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.
So there are 3 arguments
The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway) The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story
I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.
The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.
You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?
"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."
There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.
The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.
Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.
The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…
Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?
Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.
The polls were already turning before the Falklands.
Longest Suicide Note In History.
I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.
I did a politics undergraduate course. One of the lecturers was the former SDP MP David Marquand. I remember him showing very convincingly by means od graphs of polls etc. that the Falklands effect was a blip, and by the time of the 1983 GE, Conservative support had fallen back to meet the gradual upward trajectory it was on before the conflict ('swingback', we used to call it on here.)
On the other hand, an alleged Zionist is losing votes.
I am very fearful of a Conservative revival. The BBC were going on about the bangin' economy this morning. A whopping 0.1% growth for February and an uptick to 0.3% for January.
Should get 0.5% growth in Q1 which ends any question of a recession and makes the economy larger than Sunak inherited (at last). But it has been a very tough 12 months or so. This week we found that the UK had risen from 7th to 4th largest exporter in the world, mainly on the back of very strong financial services*. But we still run a very substantial trade deficit and productivity remains a weak spot.
*It should be blindingly obvious to everyone now that Brexit has not impinged adversely on UK exports but I really cannot be bothered arguing about this again. There is none so blind as those who will not see.
Call me blind if you like, but exporting manufactured widgets or consumables is down the pan over the last 5 years.
Its been crap for everyone as the west has teetered on the edge of a recession on the back of higher energy prices, market disruption and anti-inflation policies such as higher interest rates. But the UK seems to have been doing better than most and London, despite the gloom and doom, is just booming.
Port Talbot on the other hand has just had the coke ovens closed.
I know and that is yet another strategic error by a government who couldn't run a tea shop. We will pay for that in lost opportunities in car manufacturing, wind turbine construction and, if we ever get around to it, our new railways. We need a much more mercantilist government that didn't get taught and retaught the wonders of free trade and how we are all better off really, even if everything we buy is made elsewhere.
You're very lacking in cynicism if you think that a profound belief in Smithian free trade is behind sell off Britain.
I am well known for my innocence and naivety.
It does you credit.
Sadly, credit is what we are short of. About £80bn a year short. So have to keep selling all our assets until we do something about it.
On matters Scotch not sure if it's been already mentioned but Humza's run of council by-election fails has continued. And this time it was in a ward the SNP really should have won - Inverness South - in Drew Hendry's seat. LibDems surged past them, although an Independent actually won.
I had thought Hendry's seat, Inverness, Skye & Wester Ross, would be an SNP banker at the GE (one of the few), but I'm not so sure now. If the LibDems can persuade unionists they are the main challengers it could be close. There is a real sense that the Highlands are being neglected by ScotGov and its quite possible the voters will wreak some kind of vengeance. That said, I would still put Hendry as favourite, as I don't think the Tory vote will crumble to the extent it would need to. But remember, up til 2015 this area was represented by Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy.
This is the actual result (First Prefs):
Ind 22.1 % ( new Indy) LD 19.7% (+11.1) SNP 19.4% (-15.8) Con 16.1% (-0.8) Lab 11% (+3.7) Green 7.2% (+1.8) Alba 3.2% (+1.3) Sov 1.2% ( new)
And this is the result if you take out the Independent and add his second prefs to the parties - makes it even worse for SNP:
Lib Dem 856 25.9% +12.0% SNP 695 21.0% -20.0% Conservative 650 19.7% -2.3% Labour 447 13.5% +3.8% Green 272 8.2% +1.4% Alba 135 4.1% +1.8% Sovereignty 66 2.0% New Non-transferrable 184 5.6% +1.3%
As a matter of interest how would you describe the independent candidate politically ?
@Big_G_NorthWales Not sure TBH. He was endorsed by the existing Independent councillor which will have helped.
Quite a detailed preview of the by-election here. "Lean SNP" was the forecast.
I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.
The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.
You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?
"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."
There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.
The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.
Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.
The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…
Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?
Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.
The polls were already turning before the Falklands.
Longest Suicide Note In History.
I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.
Kinnock wasn't the point, I think ? The Falklands gave Thatcher a sufficient boost to kill the chances of the Alliance, and turn them into just a hindrance for Labour.
Without the Argentines, it might have been a three way fight, with the new party having a real chance.
The polling suggests that the Tory renewal was well under way before the Falklands invasion.
The experts (IIRC) on the time suggest that a lower majority for Thatcher at the next election, but a solid one, without the Falklands.
Yes, but the reputation she gained from the Falklands helped to sustain her right through the 87 election too. Her faults (stridency, unreasonableness, etc) were turned into virtues by the war. Her reputation as the Iron Lady was burnished. She was a resolute and successful war leader, not a hectoring wifey. Hugely significant.
Glorifying in slaughter did wonders for Thatcher's reputation.
I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.
The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.
You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?
"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."
There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.
The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.
Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.
The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…
Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?
Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.
The polls were already turning before the Falklands.
Longest Suicide Note In History.
I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.
I did a politics undergraduate course. One of the lecturers was the former SDP MP David Marquand. I remember him showing very convincingly by means od graphs of polls etc. that the Falklands effect was a blip, and by the time of the 1983 GE, Conservative support had fallen back to meet the gradual upward trajectory it was on before the conflict ('swingback', we used to call it on here.)
That’s the kind of thing I remember. Khaki elections are more talked about than real.
Bush I and Iraq anyone? Bush won international diplomacy to the point it was ridiculous. He got most of the Arab world into the same side as the Israelis.
I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.
The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.
You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?
"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."
There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.
The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.
Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.
The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…
Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?
Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.
The polls were already turning before the Falklands.
Longest Suicide Note In History.
I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.
Kinnock wasn't the point, I think ? The Falklands gave Thatcher a sufficient boost to kill the chances of the Alliance, and turn them into just a hindrance for Labour.
Without the Argentines, it might have been a three way fight, with the new party having a real chance.
The polling suggests that the Tory renewal was well under way before the Falklands invasion.
The experts (IIRC) on the time suggest that a lower majority for Thatcher at the next election, but a solid one, without the Falklands.
I don't think that's *known*, though. It's was a pretty febrile time, and having lived through it, I don't think it's unreasonable to think there's a decent possibility the result might have been different.
And after all, the 'experts' were polling a situation outside of their experience.
I don't read statements saying experts say this or that.
The matter of the relative contributions of the SDP and the Falklands to Thatcher's 1983 election win can be debated forever.
But the two things aren't separate. The SDP's main selling point was that Labour were "bad on defence", meaning in effect soft on NATO and soft in another sense on Moscow. The SDP was practically a NATO PR job.
Then there was the Falklands war and the Tories wrapped themselves in "Defeat the Argies and watch out for Ken Livingstone because he doesn't like the queen, he calls the Falklands the Malvinas, and he probably wears hammer and sickle underpants". British-armed Argentina under Leopoldo Galtieri was nothing to do with Moscow or NATO, but in many voters' minds the war was in the same ballpark - the one called "defence".
Worth remembering that Tory voteshare FELL between 1979 and 1983.
On matters Scotch not sure if it's been already mentioned but Humza's run of council by-election fails has continued. And this time it was in a ward the SNP really should have won - Inverness South - in Drew Hendry's seat. LibDems surged past them, although an Independent actually won.
I had thought Hendry's seat, Inverness, Skye & Wester Ross, would be an SNP banker at the GE (one of the few), but I'm not so sure now. If the LibDems can persuade unionists they are the main challengers it could be close. There is a real sense that the Highlands are being neglected by ScotGov and its quite possible the voters will wreak some kind of vengeance. That said, I would still put Hendry as favourite, as I don't think the Tory vote will crumble to the extent it would need to. But remember, up til 2015 this area was represented by Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy.
This is the actual result (First Prefs):
Ind 22.1 % ( new Indy) LD 19.7% (+11.1) SNP 19.4% (-15.8) Con 16.1% (-0.8) Lab 11% (+3.7) Green 7.2% (+1.8) Alba 3.2% (+1.3) Sov 1.2% ( new)
And this is the result if you take out the Independent and add his second prefs to the parties - makes it even worse for SNP:
Lib Dem 856 25.9% +12.0% SNP 695 21.0% -20.0% Conservative 650 19.7% -2.3% Labour 447 13.5% +3.8% Green 272 8.2% +1.4% Alba 135 4.1% +1.8% Sovereignty 66 2.0% New Non-transferrable 184 5.6% +1.3%
As a matter of interest how would you describe the independent candidate politically ?
@Big_G_NorthWales Not sure TBH. He was endorsed by the existing Independent councillor which will have helped.
Quite a detailed preview of the by-election here. "Lean SNP" was the forecast.
The SNP are paying a price for kissing the Greens' , well, behind, in respect of not dualling the A9. North Scotland is not pleased.
It was ever thus
North Scotland has never been pleased?
I have travelled that road for over 60 years and it is a disgrace on Scotland's governments that the A9 is not dualled all the way
The A9 and A96 (Inverness to Aberdeen), along with the ferries, have become totemic issues in the North.
And after that, there's the social conservatism of the region to consider, and its reliance on oil and gas. Tough one for SNP candidates. They'll really need independence to become salient again.
Off topic, I came through London earlier. I’ve recently praised the city but this is pretty grim.
Most of that is because they are stripping the station out. Due to late running and early opening, the amount of time they have to actually do work is limited in the passenger accessible areas. So they have to work in small increments over months
Hence the boards with silver tape, new block work and the netting while they clear out stuff in what was the ceiling voids.
I mean, three of the seven pics were the grubby inside of a tube train but okay.
I guess when you return from the UAE, Qatar, or Singapore this kind of grubbiness hits you especially if you land at the increasingly grotty Heathrow.
What's HTB in that context?
I know lots of HTB acronyms, but none that would make sense there.
Uh? Has that transposed itself from a different message that someone else made?
HTB? Holy Trinity Brompton?
Edit: Oh!!!!!!!!!!!! The HTB daubed on the tube train!!! Haha. Good spot.
I don’t know?
That'll be the Boys Brigade from HTB. Out every evening to create havoc while singing 'Onward Christian Soldiers'.
Hmmm.
Havic: The Bothering, a parody card game Heat loss due to linear thermal bridging (HTB) Heavens to Betsy, a polite version of WTF. Hierarchical token bucket, a computer networking algorithm Hizb ut-Tahrir Britain, the UK branch of Islamist organisation Hizb ut-Tahrir Holy Trinity Brompton, a church in London, England Hokkaido Television Broadcasting, in Japan Household Troops Band of the Salvation Army
A lot hangs on the ghastly Rayner.... if she gets the boot things might change.....
Excellent point. Er how?
Take your blinkers off
We have no idea? Surprise us? Educate us? We might even get an O-level if we keep trying hard enough?
So whats changing?
If you are stupid enough to think that Rayner being found to.have broken the law ..the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party no.less...will change nothing....Then live on in ignorance.
I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.
The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.
You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?
"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."
There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.
The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.
Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.
The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…
Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?
Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.
The polls were already turning before the Falklands.
Longest Suicide Note In History.
I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.
Kinnock wasn't the point, I think ? The Falklands gave Thatcher a sufficient boost to kill the chances of the Alliance, and turn them into just a hindrance for Labour.
Without the Argentines, it might have been a three way fight, with the new party having a real chance.
The polling suggests that the Tory renewal was well under way before the Falklands invasion.
The experts (IIRC) on the time suggest that a lower majority for Thatcher at the next election, but a solid one, without the Falklands.
Yes, but the reputation she gained from the Falklands helped to sustain her right through the 87 election too. Her faults (stridency, unreasonableness, etc) were turned into virtues by the war. Her reputation as the Iron Lady was burnished. She was a resolute and successful war leader, not a hectoring wifey. Hugely significant.
Glorifying in slaughter did wonders for Thatcher's reputation.
Unfortunately @GuidoFawkes doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.
So there are 3 arguments
The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway) The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story
Ouch - embarrassing for Staines. I wonder how often he meets people who ever lived in council houses. How can Rayner have committed election fraud when the two houses were in the same constituency? "Minor amount" doesn't sound good politically though.
Off topic, I came through London earlier. I’ve recently praised the city but this is pretty grim.
Most of that is because they are stripping the station out. Due to late running and early opening, the amount of time they have to actually do work is limited in the passenger accessible areas. So they have to work in small increments over months
Hence the boards with silver tape, new block work and the netting while they clear out stuff in what was the ceiling voids.
I mean, three of the seven pics were the grubby inside of a tube train but okay.
I guess when you return from the UAE, Qatar, or Singapore this kind of grubbiness hits you especially if you land at the increasingly grotty Heathrow.
What's HTB in that context?
I know lots of HTB acronyms, but none that would make sense there.
Uh? Has that transposed itself from a different message that someone else made?
HTB? Holy Trinity Brompton?
Edit: Oh!!!!!!!!!!!! The HTB daubed on the tube train!!! Haha. Good spot.
I don’t know?
That'll be the Boys Brigade from HTB. Out every evening to create havoc while singing 'Onward Christian Soldiers'.
Hmmm.
Havic: The Bothering, a parody card game Heat loss due to linear thermal bridging (HTB) Heavens to Betsy, a polite version of WTF. Hierarchical token bucket, a computer networking algorithm Hizb ut-Tahrir Britain, the UK branch of Islamist organisation Hizb ut-Tahrir Holy Trinity Brompton, a church in London, England Hokkaido Television Broadcasting, in Japan Household Troops Band of the Salvation Army
Help To Buy
HTB is the code for Terre-de-Bas Airport in Saint Barthelemy.
Off topic, I came through London earlier. I’ve recently praised the city but this is pretty grim.
Most of that is because they are stripping the station out. Due to late running and early opening, the amount of time they have to actually do work is limited in the passenger accessible areas. So they have to work in small increments over months
Hence the boards with silver tape, new block work and the netting while they clear out stuff in what was the ceiling voids.
I mean, three of the seven pics were the grubby inside of a tube train but okay.
I guess when you return from the UAE, Qatar, or Singapore this kind of grubbiness hits you especially if you land at the increasingly grotty Heathrow.
What's HTB in that context?
I know lots of HTB acronyms, but none that would make sense there.
Uh? Has that transposed itself from a different message that someone else made?
HTB? Holy Trinity Brompton?
Edit: Oh!!!!!!!!!!!! The HTB daubed on the tube train!!! Haha. Good spot.
I don’t know?
That'll be the Boys Brigade from HTB. Out every evening to create havoc while singing 'Onward Christian Soldiers'.
Hmmm.
Havic: The Bothering, a parody card game Heat loss due to linear thermal bridging (HTB) Heavens to Betsy, a polite version of WTF. Hierarchical token bucket, a computer networking algorithm Hizb ut-Tahrir Britain, the UK branch of Islamist organisation Hizb ut-Tahrir Holy Trinity Brompton, a church in London, England Hokkaido Television Broadcasting, in Japan Household Troops Band of the Salvation Army
Help To Buy
HTB is the code for Terre-de-Bas Airport in Saint Barthelemy.
Good to know. If my train stops there knowing the code will help me. 😀
I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.
The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.
You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?
"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."
There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.
The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.
Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.
The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…
Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?
Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.
The polls were already turning before the Falklands.
Longest Suicide Note In History.
I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.
Kinnock wasn't the point, I think ? The Falklands gave Thatcher a sufficient boost to kill the chances of the Alliance, and turn them into just a hindrance for Labour.
Without the Argentines, it might have been a three way fight, with the new party having a real chance.
The polling suggests that the Tory renewal was well under way before the Falklands invasion.
The experts (IIRC) on the time suggest that a lower majority for Thatcher at the next election, but a solid one, without the Falklands.
Yes, but the reputation she gained from the Falklands helped to sustain her right through the 87 election too. Her faults (stridency, unreasonableness, etc) were turned into virtues by the war. Her reputation as the Iron Lady was burnished. She was a resolute and successful war leader, not a hectoring wifey. Hugely significant.
Glorifying in slaughter did wonders for Thatcher's reputation.
Moronic comment
Alas, it is you showing your ignorance, by being unaware of the reference I was alluding to:
Guardian - "In the 1983 election campaign, after the Falklands war, he [Denis Healey] accused Margaret Thatcher of “glorying in slaughter”, and had to withdraw the remark (he had meant to say “conflict”)."
I just read that reform are unable to field candidates in more than 12% of the councils in the locals. That is crazy. They are supposed to be a national party 🤷 they seem to lack the capacity and professionalism to succeed in any way shape or form. I wonder how this will play out in the GE and what it means for the results in the locals?
Back in the 70’s the National Front were supposed to be the ‘coming thing’. As an Agent (for another party) I was summoned, with the other Political Agents to a meeting with the Returning Officer for our local Council prior to the election to be told which candidates would be on the ballot and which would not. All the NF candidates were disqualified….. didn’t live in the Council’s area, those signing the forms didn’t and so on. All my candidates were found to have complied with the regulations. Thankfully.
Not having the organisational framework and experience to make sure all candidates understand the importance of the rules and follow them does seem to be a problem for some of these parties. I remember a local UKIP council election candidate ending up pleading guilty to fraud for falsifying some signatures on their nomination papers some years back, for instance: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-23985090
A lot hangs on the ghastly Rayner.... if she gets the boot things might change.....
Excellent point. Er how?
Take your blinkers off
We have no idea? Surprise us? Educate us? We might even get an O-level if we keep trying hard enough?
So whats changing?
If you are stupid enough to think that Rayner being found to.have broken the law ..the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party no.less...will change nothing....Then live on in ignorance.
Remember, though, that politics isn't fair.
If I may say so, you might have early stage ADS (Angela Derangement Syndrome). Like BDS, only triggered by gobby left wingers.
Boris was always terrible as a human being, but as long as people had put their trust in him, they didn't want to hear the downsides. Some still don't now. He got away with stuff, and it drove his enemies potty.
Similarly, in the event that Ange does fall over this, I'd be confident that the public view would be "Good for Labour, doing the right thing. Not like those stinky Tories." Not because it's accurate, but because most people want it to be true.
No, it's not fair. But politics isn't designed to be fair.
Off topic, I came through London earlier. I’ve recently praised the city but this is pretty grim.
Most of that is because they are stripping the station out. Due to late running and early opening, the amount of time they have to actually do work is limited in the passenger accessible areas. So they have to work in small increments over months
Hence the boards with silver tape, new block work and the netting while they clear out stuff in what was the ceiling voids.
I mean, three of the seven pics were the grubby inside of a tube train but okay.
I guess when you return from the UAE, Qatar, or Singapore this kind of grubbiness hits you especially if you land at the increasingly grotty Heathrow.
What's HTB in that context?
I know lots of HTB acronyms, but none that would make sense there.
Uh? Has that transposed itself from a different message that someone else made?
HTB? Holy Trinity Brompton?
Edit: Oh!!!!!!!!!!!! The HTB daubed on the tube train!!! Haha. Good spot.
I don’t know?
That'll be the Boys Brigade from HTB. Out every evening to create havoc while singing 'Onward Christian Soldiers'.
Hmmm.
Havic: The Bothering, a parody card game Heat loss due to linear thermal bridging (HTB) Heavens to Betsy, a polite version of WTF. Hierarchical token bucket, a computer networking algorithm Hizb ut-Tahrir Britain, the UK branch of Islamist organisation Hizb ut-Tahrir Holy Trinity Brompton, a church in London, England Hokkaido Television Broadcasting, in Japan Household Troops Band of the Salvation Army
Help To Buy
HTB is the code for Terre-de-Bas Airport in Saint Barthelemy.
Good to know. If my train stops there knowing the code will help me. 😀
But it justifies the BTP organising a trip to Saint Barthelemy to try and track down the person responsible for the graffiti.
Unfortunately @GuidoFawkes doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.
So there are 3 arguments
The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway) The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story
Ouch - embarrassing for Staines. I wonder how often he meets people who ever lived in council houses. How can Rayner have committed election fraud when the two houses were in the same constituency? "Minor amount" doesn't sound good politically though.
I said minor amount because the maximum amount owed is £1500
Unfortunately @GuidoFawkes doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.
So there are 3 arguments
The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway) The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story
Ouch - embarrassing for Staines. I wonder how often he meets people who ever lived in council houses. How can Rayner have committed election fraud when the two houses were in the same constituency? "Minor amount" doesn't sound good politically though.
I said minor amount because the maximum amount owed is £1500
On matters Scotch not sure if it's been already mentioned but Humza's run of council by-election fails has continued. And this time it was in a ward the SNP really should have won - Inverness South - in Drew Hendry's seat. LibDems surged past them, although an Independent actually won.
I had thought Hendry's seat, Inverness, Skye & Wester Ross, would be an SNP banker at the GE (one of the few), but I'm not so sure now. If the LibDems can persuade unionists they are the main challengers it could be close. There is a real sense that the Highlands are being neglected by ScotGov and its quite possible the voters will wreak some kind of vengeance. That said, I would still put Hendry as favourite, as I don't think the Tory vote will crumble to the extent it would need to. But remember, up til 2015 this area was represented by Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy.
This is the actual result (First Prefs):
Ind 22.1 % ( new Indy) LD 19.7% (+11.1) SNP 19.4% (-15.8) Con 16.1% (-0.8) Lab 11% (+3.7) Green 7.2% (+1.8) Alba 3.2% (+1.3) Sov 1.2% ( new)
And this is the result if you take out the Independent and add his second prefs to the parties - makes it even worse for SNP:
Lib Dem 856 25.9% +12.0% SNP 695 21.0% -20.0% Conservative 650 19.7% -2.3% Labour 447 13.5% +3.8% Green 272 8.2% +1.4% Alba 135 4.1% +1.8% Sovereignty 66 2.0% New Non-transferrable 184 5.6% +1.3%
As a matter of interest how would you describe the independent candidate politically ?
@Big_G_NorthWales Not sure TBH. He was endorsed by the existing Independent councillor which will have helped.
Quite a detailed preview of the by-election here. "Lean SNP" was the forecast.
The SNP are paying a price for kissing the Greens' , well, behind, in respect of not dualling the A9. North Scotland is not pleased.
It was ever thus
North Scotland has never been pleased?
I have travelled that road for over 60 years and it is a disgrace on Scotland's governments that the A9 is not dualled all the way
The A9 and A96 (Inverness to Aberdeen), along with the ferries, have become totemic issues in the North.
And after that, there's the social conservatism of the region to consider, and its reliance on oil and gas. Tough one for SNP candidates. They'll really need independence to become salient again.
Or an SNP not in love with the Greens or tholed to Central Belt politicians. Someone like Alex Salmond or Kate Forbes could do the job. The Yousaf, Sturgeon arseholes, not so much. The SNP need to get rid of their current leadership as much as the Tories need to get rid of theirs.
@AnushkaAsthana Most folk in Downing Street and CCHQ will still make argument for an Autumn election- but sources tell me some v senior folk have made argument for alternative- calling it immediately after locals and holding on July 4
I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.
The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.
You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?
"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."
There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.
The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.
Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.
The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…
Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?
Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.
The polls were already turning before the Falklands.
Longest Suicide Note In History.
I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.
Kinnock wasn't the point, I think ? The Falklands gave Thatcher a sufficient boost to kill the chances of the Alliance, and turn them into just a hindrance for Labour.
Without the Argentines, it might have been a three way fight, with the new party having a real chance.
The polling suggests that the Tory renewal was well under way before the Falklands invasion.
The experts (IIRC) on the time suggest that a lower majority for Thatcher at the next election, but a solid one, without the Falklands.
Yes, but the reputation she gained from the Falklands helped to sustain her right through the 87 election too. Her faults (stridency, unreasonableness, etc) were turned into virtues by the war. Her reputation as the Iron Lady was burnished. She was a resolute and successful war leader, not a hectoring wifey. Hugely significant.
Glorifying in slaughter did wonders for Thatcher's reputation.
Fewer people died in the entire Falklands War (907) than were killed by Hamas during the 7/10 attack (1,139).
On the other hand, an alleged Zionist is losing votes.
I am very fearful of a Conservative revival. The BBC were going on about the bangin' economy this morning. A whopping 0.1% growth for February and an uptick to 0.3% for January.
Should get 0.5% growth in Q1 which ends any question of a recession and makes the economy larger than Sunak inherited (at last). But it has been a very tough 12 months or so. This week we found that the UK had risen from 7th to 4th largest exporter in the world, mainly on the back of very strong financial services*. But we still run a very substantial trade deficit and productivity remains a weak spot.
*It should be blindingly obvious to everyone now that Brexit has not impinged adversely on UK exports but I really cannot be bothered arguing about this again. There is none so blind as those who will not see.
Call me blind if you like, but exporting manufactured widgets or consumables is down the pan over the last 5 years.
Its been crap for everyone as the west has teetered on the edge of a recession on the back of higher energy prices, market disruption and anti-inflation policies such as higher interest rates. But the UK seems to have been doing better than most and London, despite the gloom and doom, is just booming.
Port Talbot on the other hand has just had the coke ovens closed.
I know and that is yet another strategic error by a government who couldn't run a tea shop. We will pay for that in lost opportunities in car manufacturing, wind turbine construction and, if we ever get around to it, our new railways. We need a much more mercantilist government that didn't get taught and retaught the wonders of free trade and how we are all better off really, even if everything we buy is made elsewhere.
You're very lacking in cynicism if you think that a profound belief in Smithian free trade is behind sell off Britain.
I am well known for my innocence and naivety.
It does you credit.
Sadly, credit is what we are short of. About £80bn a year short. So have to keep selling all our assets until we do something about it.
Yeah, but if it's the next lot who run out of assets to flog then we win!
@AnushkaAsthana Most folk in Downing Street and CCHQ will still make argument for an Autumn election- but sources tell me some v senior folk have made argument for alternative- calling it immediately after locals and holding on July 4
I am confident it will be in June or July and have been for some weeks.
Unfortunately @GuidoFawkes doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.
So there are 3 arguments
The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway) The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story
So if that is the advice she has been given, publish it. We wait with baited breath…
@AnushkaAsthana Most folk in Downing Street and CCHQ will still make argument for an Autumn election- but sources tell me some v senior folk have made argument for alternative- calling it immediately after locals and holding on July 4
Maybe on the back of wins by Andy Street and Ben Houchen? Even if that happened (unlikely) I think Rishi would more likely see it as an argument that things are improving and he should hang on.
Unfortunately @GuidoFawkes doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.
So there are 3 arguments
The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway) The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story
So if that is the advice she has been given, publish it. We wait with baited breath…
She will hand it all to the Police and they will decide. Publishing it now is pointless, it would have made more sense to publish it at the beginning.
Unfortunately @GuidoFawkes doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.
So there are 3 arguments
The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway) The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story
So if that is the advice she has been given, publish it. We wait with baited breath…
My 30 seconds of googling and memory isn’t the advice she’s given - it was me looking at guido’s articles and what the actual law says
Unfortunately @GuidoFawkes doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.
So there are 3 arguments
The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway) The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story
So if that is the advice she has been given, publish it. We wait with baited breath…
She will hand it all to the Police and they will decide. Publishing it now is pointless, it would have made more sense to publish it at the beginning.
@AnushkaAsthana Most folk in Downing Street and CCHQ will still make argument for an Autumn election- but sources tell me some v senior folk have made argument for alternative- calling it immediately after locals and holding on July 4
That's a long election campaign.
Are they sure Sunak wont be utterly found out during eight weeks of campaigning when he has to meet people who don't know what a spreadsheet is every single day?
On matters Scotch not sure if it's been already mentioned but Humza's run of council by-election fails has continued. And this time it was in a ward the SNP really should have won - Inverness South - in Drew Hendry's seat. LibDems surged past them, although an Independent actually won.
I had thought Hendry's seat, Inverness, Skye & Wester Ross, would be an SNP banker at the GE (one of the few), but I'm not so sure now. If the LibDems can persuade unionists they are the main challengers it could be close. There is a real sense that the Highlands are being neglected by ScotGov and its quite possible the voters will wreak some kind of vengeance. That said, I would still put Hendry as favourite, as I don't think the Tory vote will crumble to the extent it would need to. But remember, up til 2015 this area was represented by Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy.
This is the actual result (First Prefs):
Ind 22.1 % ( new Indy) LD 19.7% (+11.1) SNP 19.4% (-15.8) Con 16.1% (-0.8) Lab 11% (+3.7) Green 7.2% (+1.8) Alba 3.2% (+1.3) Sov 1.2% ( new)
And this is the result if you take out the Independent and add his second prefs to the parties - makes it even worse for SNP:
Lib Dem 856 25.9% +12.0% SNP 695 21.0% -20.0% Conservative 650 19.7% -2.3% Labour 447 13.5% +3.8% Green 272 8.2% +1.4% Alba 135 4.1% +1.8% Sovereignty 66 2.0% New Non-transferrable 184 5.6% +1.3%
As a matter of interest how would you describe the independent candidate politically ?
@Big_G_NorthWales Not sure TBH. He was endorsed by the existing Independent councillor which will have helped.
Quite a detailed preview of the by-election here. "Lean SNP" was the forecast.
The SNP are paying a price for kissing the Greens' , well, behind, in respect of not dualling the A9. North Scotland is not pleased.
It was ever thus
North Scotland has never been pleased?
I have travelled that road for over 60 years and it is a disgrace on Scotland's governments that the A9 is not dualled all the way
The A9 and A96 (Inverness to Aberdeen), along with the ferries, have become totemic issues in the North.
And after that, there's the social conservatism of the region to consider, and its reliance on oil and gas. Tough one for SNP candidates. They'll really need independence to become salient again.
Or an SNP not in love with the Greens or tholed to Central Belt politicians. Someone like Alex Salmond or Kate Forbes could do the job. The Yousaf, Sturgeon arseholes, not so much. The SNP need to get rid of their current leadership as much as the Tories need to get rid of theirs.
It's going quite well for Kate Forbes. She missed a bullet at the leadership election and now has the happy prospect of the party turning to her when the Humza regime finally implodes. She'll most likely take over when the SNP are ejected from Govt at the next Holyrood elections. So a few years to wait which probably suits her given her family commitments.
Unfortunately @GuidoFawkes doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.
So there are 3 arguments
The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway) The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story
So if that is the advice she has been given, publish it. We wait with baited breath…
Your breath may well be baited. If so, I'd advise buying some mints. The rest of as wait with bated breath.
Unfortunately @GuidoFawkes doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.
So there are 3 arguments
The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway) The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story
So if that is the advice she has been given, publish it. We wait with baited breath…
She will hand it all to the Police and they will decide. Publishing it now is pointless, it would have made more sense to publish it at the beginning.
Agreed, so why didn’t she? Hoping it would go away?
Unfortunately @GuidoFawkes doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.
So there are 3 arguments
The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway) The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story
So if that is the advice she has been given, publish it. We wait with baited breath…
She will hand it all to the Police and they will decide. Publishing it now is pointless, it would have made more sense to publish it at the beginning.
Um the police won’t care about the tax bit
But there's nothing to answer on the tax is there? HMRC isn't investigating and neither are the Police, that's case closed is it not?
Unfortunately @GuidoFawkes doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.
So there are 3 arguments
The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway) The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story
So if that is the advice she has been given, publish it. We wait with baited breath…
She will hand it all to the Police and they will decide. Publishing it now is pointless, it would have made more sense to publish it at the beginning.
Agreed, so why didn’t she? Hoping it would go away?
Presumably she was advised not to but it does not seem to have been wise.
Still, threatening to resign has been a very good play indeed.
Unfortunately @GuidoFawkes doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.
So there are 3 arguments
The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway) The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story
So if that is the advice she has been given, publish it. We wait with baited breath…
Your breath may well be baited. If so, I'd advise buying some mints. The rest of as wait with bated breath.
Never knew that one was wrong. PB as always an education!
Unfortunately @GuidoFawkes doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.
So there are 3 arguments
The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway) The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story
So if that is the advice she has been given, publish it. We wait with baited breath…
She will hand it all to the Police and they will decide. Publishing it now is pointless, it would have made more sense to publish it at the beginning.
Agreed, so why didn’t she? Hoping it would go away?
Presumably she was advised not to but it does not seem to have been wise.
Still, threatening to resign has been a very good play indeed.
I have tried to resist sharing this straight line, but can no longer; In a March 19th NYT article on the return of female genital cutting in Gambia, I found this: 'Clerics in the Muslim world disagree on whether cutting is Islamic, but it is not in the Koran. The most vocal of the Gambian imans, Abdoule Fatty, has argued that "circumcision makes you cleaner" and has said the husbands of women who have not been cut suffer because they can not meet their wives' sexual appetities.'
Unfortunately @GuidoFawkes doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.
So there are 3 arguments
The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway) The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story
So if that is the advice she has been given, publish it. We wait with baited breath…
She will hand it all to the Police and they will decide. Publishing it now is pointless, it would have made more sense to publish it at the beginning.
Agreed, so why didn’t she? Hoping it would go away?
Presumably she was advised not to but it does not seem to have been wise.
Still, threatening to resign has been a very good play indeed.
As per Sir Keir.
Well that was presumably who advised her to do it. Played the Tories like a fiddle unless she's guilty in which case it backfires.
On matters Scotch not sure if it's been already mentioned but Humza's run of council by-election fails has continued. And this time it was in a ward the SNP really should have won - Inverness South - in Drew Hendry's seat. LibDems surged past them, although an Independent actually won.
I had thought Hendry's seat, Inverness, Skye & Wester Ross, would be an SNP banker at the GE (one of the few), but I'm not so sure now. If the LibDems can persuade unionists they are the main challengers it could be close. There is a real sense that the Highlands are being neglected by ScotGov and its quite possible the voters will wreak some kind of vengeance. That said, I would still put Hendry as favourite, as I don't think the Tory vote will crumble to the extent it would need to. But remember, up til 2015 this area was represented by Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy.
This is the actual result (First Prefs):
Ind 22.1 % ( new Indy) LD 19.7% (+11.1) SNP 19.4% (-15.8) Con 16.1% (-0.8) Lab 11% (+3.7) Green 7.2% (+1.8) Alba 3.2% (+1.3) Sov 1.2% ( new)
And this is the result if you take out the Independent and add his second prefs to the parties - makes it even worse for SNP:
Lib Dem 856 25.9% +12.0% SNP 695 21.0% -20.0% Conservative 650 19.7% -2.3% Labour 447 13.5% +3.8% Green 272 8.2% +1.4% Alba 135 4.1% +1.8% Sovereignty 66 2.0% New Non-transferrable 184 5.6% +1.3%
As a matter of interest how would you describe the independent candidate politically ?
@Big_G_NorthWales Not sure TBH. He was endorsed by the existing Independent councillor which will have helped.
Quite a detailed preview of the by-election here. "Lean SNP" was the forecast.
And in a 1991 BBC Panorama programme we showed how PM John Major had been registered in 1968 at a house in Lambeth which the owner told me he'd never lived at - not even for one night. That qualified him to stand for Lambeth Council, and he duly won a seat. The Mail splash described the story as "BBC Hatchet Job On Major".
So again, there was a big fuss, but no action was taken.
I'm not sure this police investigation into whether Angela Rayner broke electoral law will get very far. When we found on C4 News in 2017 Stoke by-election that Ukip leader Paul Nuttall was registered at address he'd told me he'd never yet visited, Staffs police investigated & dropped the case.
I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.
The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.
You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?
"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."
There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.
The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.
Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.
The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…
Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?
Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.
The polls were already turning before the Falklands.
Longest Suicide Note In History.
I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.
I did a politics undergraduate course. One of the lecturers was the former SDP MP David Marquand. I remember him showing very convincingly by means od graphs of polls etc. that the Falklands effect was a blip, and by the time of the 1983 GE, Conservative support had fallen back to meet the gradual upward trajectory it was on before the conflict ('swingback', we used to call it on here.)
That doesn’t show anything other than their support drifted back, which is hardly unexpected. What it might have done absent the Falklands is an entirely different thing.
I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.
The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.
You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?
"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."
There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.
The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.
Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.
The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…
Without challenging your larger point (which is probably true) what evidence do you have that the 'Falklands saving Thatcher' is a myth?
Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.
The polls were already turning before the Falklands.
Longest Suicide Note In History.
I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.
Kinnock wasn't the point, I think ? The Falklands gave Thatcher a sufficient boost to kill the chances of the Alliance, and turn them into just a hindrance for Labour.
Without the Argentines, it might have been a three way fight, with the new party having a real chance.
The polling suggests that the Tory renewal was well under way before the Falklands invasion.
The experts (IIRC) on the time suggest that a lower majority for Thatcher at the next election, but a solid one, without the Falklands.
Yes, but the reputation she gained from the Falklands helped to sustain her right through the 87 election too. Her faults (stridency, unreasonableness, etc) were turned into virtues by the war. Her reputation as the Iron Lady was burnished. She was a resolute and successful war leader, not a hectoring wifey. Hugely significant.
Glorifying in slaughter did wonders for Thatcher's reputation.
Moronic comment
Alas, it is you showing your ignorance, by being unaware of the reference I was alluding to:
Guardian - "In the 1983 election campaign, after the Falklands war, he [Denis Healey] accused Margaret Thatcher of “glorying in slaughter”, and had to withdraw the remark (he had meant to say “conflict”)."
You are being too clever. You should have alluded to the context
But you used the private sector while a Labour government improved public services:
“Since I made that decision Labour built five new secondary schools in Hackney, one of them with some of the best GCSE results in the country. I wouldn’t have to make the same choice today.”
Comments
I don't say there's anything in it, and obviously the motivation of the right will play into what they want to see just as it does in the other direction when there's an investigation, but I find the perceptions of the person who has pushed the story the most to be telling, in terms of what they think is juiciest part of the story.
Have you seen Kuenssberg?
company I work for.
I am an Evul Tory.
So come election day, we will instruct the Illuminati to instruct the Zeta Reticulans to instruct the Lizards in People Suits to do lots of voting by impersonation.
It’s trivial when you have lots of spare people suit in the closet.
#IllegalAliensWillStealYourVote
That any help?
Prior to the Falklands War the Tories, Labour and the Alliance were effectively tied in the opinion polls; by the end of the Falklands the Tories were consistently enjoying leads in the 10-20% range over Labour.
Tory scum . The Tories need to stfu with their pathetic moral outrage . They backed Bozo .
It doesn't even have to be reasonable in such cases, but choosing when to attempt it is clearly a tactical choice, when they could just ignore bits they don't like, or just call black white and white black.
As I said, Guido is a partisan hack, everyone knows that, including him I'd bet, so he doesn't have to 'play being reasonable'. In which case why do so? And if he has, the Tories would probably be wise not to play it more unreasonably than even he is seeking to be.
If the Tories were any use (haha) they would have a whole social media plan worked out with her excoriating opponents about legal but questionable matters demanding they stand down etc to show her as a hypocrite.
People don’t like hypocrites. It’s really not a major issue what she’s done or not done but it’s a potential major issue politically. I think SKS would actually secretly be quite happy if he could get shot of her or at least reduce her power so he doesn’t have to give her a cabinet position.
Other than getting a couple of media cycles of distraction out if it, I don't get why the Tories are making such a public show of impeaching her honesty.
Either they end up looking ridiculous, or Labour are rid of a problem before the election.
Longest Suicide Note In History.
I mean, this was the Labour Party, where someone rocked up on the platform at the party conference. To demand leaving NATO and the EEC. And joining COMECON.
It all comes down to the rule of thumb of if a party would kick up a fuss if it happened to one of their own. Would the Tories care if it was one of theirs? Gods no. Would Labour care if it was not one of theirs? Probably yes.
It sucks for those who have done nothing wrong when they get caught in some random mud slinging, but that's part of the price of being a high profile politician unfortunately - there's plenty who deserve to get hit by mud and are not, so for the clean you have to hope if you get some of the crossfire that you are vindicated as quickly as possible with as little impact as impossible.
The Falklands gave Thatcher a sufficient boost to kill the chances of the Alliance, and turn them into just a hindrance for Labour.
Without the Argentines, it might have been a three way fight, with the new party having a real chance.
You are a misery. Here's a fiver, get a pint on me. Oh wait you don't use cash...
They've always been a top down kind of movement, trying to reach a point of national support where they suddenly break through in several places (as opposed to the Greens who have tried building up support in key areas to maximise chances of MPs despite relatively low polling).
UKIP managed 558 in 2010 and 624 in 2015. So Reform may not come up with the full number (minus Northern Ireland probably), but given how they are polling and the disaffected Tories wanting the party to get a kicking, I think they'd manage a pretty high number if they want.
The experts (IIRC) on the time suggest that a lower majority for Thatcher at the next election, but a solid one, without the Falklands.
Quite a detailed preview of the by-election here. "Lean SNP" was the forecast.
https://ballotbox.scot/preview-inverness-south/
All the NF candidates were disqualified….. didn’t live in the Council’s area, those signing the forms didn’t and so on.
All my candidates were found to have complied with the regulations. Thankfully.
So whats changing?
It's was a pretty febrile time, and having lived through it, I don't think it's unreasonable to think there's a decent possibility the result might have been different.
And after all, the 'experts' were polling a situation outside of their experience.
The joke was not about Rayner it was about Anabob's continued frustration with misspelt Labour leader's names
Unfortunately
@GuidoFawkes
doesn’t understand the 5 year rule on disposal of RTB property. Whether the person was living there is irrelevant. It is only about selling within the first 5 years. This is really embarrassing stuff.
So there are 3 arguments
The tax which is a minor amount and up to HMRC (probably time limited anyway)
The election fraud which again is timed served if it existed
Moving out of the property early which seems to be a none story
Bush I and Iraq anyone? Bush won international diplomacy to the point it was ridiculous. He got most of the Arab world into the same side as the Israelis.
And he lost the election.
The matter of the relative contributions of the SDP and the Falklands to Thatcher's 1983 election win can be debated forever.
But the two things aren't separate. The SDP's main selling point was that Labour were "bad on defence", meaning in effect soft on NATO and soft in another sense on Moscow. The SDP was practically a NATO PR job.
Then there was the Falklands war and the Tories wrapped themselves in "Defeat the Argies and watch out for Ken Livingstone because he doesn't like the queen, he calls the Falklands the Malvinas, and he probably wears hammer and sickle underpants". British-armed Argentina under Leopoldo Galtieri was nothing to do with Moscow or NATO, but in many voters' minds the war was in the same ballpark - the one called "defence".
Worth remembering that Tory voteshare FELL between 1979 and 1983.
And after that, there's the social conservatism of the region to consider, and its reliance on oil and gas. Tough one for SNP candidates. They'll really need independence to become salient again.
How can Rayner have committed election fraud when the two houses were in the same constituency?
"Minor amount" doesn't sound good politically though.
But also, if the police say that Rayner committed a criminal offence, I will not fully believe it.
Because I simply do not trust the police when it comes to politics.
Guardian - "In the 1983 election campaign, after the Falklands war, he [Denis Healey] accused Margaret Thatcher of “glorying in slaughter”, and had to withdraw the remark (he had meant to say “conflict”)."
If I may say so, you might have early stage ADS (Angela Derangement Syndrome). Like BDS, only triggered by gobby left wingers.
Boris was always terrible as a human being, but as long as people had put their trust in him, they didn't want to hear the downsides. Some still don't now. He got away with stuff, and it drove his enemies potty.
Similarly, in the event that Ange does fall over this, I'd be confident that the public view would be "Good for Labour, doing the right thing. Not like those stinky Tories." Not because it's accurate, but because most people want it to be true.
No, it's not fair. But politics isn't designed to be fair.
Dodging tax? Electoral fraud? Standing on the cracks in the pavement? Who can tell?
Most folk in Downing Street and CCHQ will still make argument for an Autumn election- but sources tell me some v senior folk have made argument for alternative- calling it immediately after locals and holding on July 4
She needs a full exoneration, not avoiding prosecution on a technicality.
Are they sure Sunak wont be utterly found out during eight weeks of campaigning when he has to meet people who don't know what a spreadsheet is every single day?
Still, threatening to resign has been a very good play indeed.
(Try to keep the punch lines relatively clean.)
So again, there was a big fuss, but no action was taken.
https://x.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1778876618544382230
https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1778841932967428178
Whomp whomp
But you used the private sector while a Labour government improved public services:
“Since I made that decision Labour built five new secondary schools in Hackney, one of them with some of the best GCSE results in the country. I wouldn’t have to make the same choice today.”
I love a bit of girl on girl. Rowwww!