What’s this going to do to the May results? – politicalbetting.com

Northern_Al said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I know it is Guido but this may explain the police involvement in what appears to be a minor infringement

I simply cannot believe it is just where she lived for electoral purposes

https://order-order.com/people/angela-rayner/

They'd go after her if they thought she forgot to feed the school hamster when she was 7.

NB that the right-wing Tory media have alreadfy provided excellent evidence, in the form of timing of applications for adaptation of the later house for a disabled family member, that there was indeed a valid overlap period when the family were using both houses.

To be honest, as another poster has just said , best to wait the outcome of the police investigation

We can speculate as much as we want but we simply do not know the circumstances of the investigation but we will once the police conclude their investigation

Quite right, Big G. Best not to speculate through multiple posts, or link to speculation elsewhere, for example on Guido.

You wouldn't do that, would you?

Guido does provide an insight into the issues and is legitimate to refer to his post as his reasoning does provide information into possible allegations

However, I do not intend commenting further as I agree with the earlier poster it is best to leave it to the police

I doubt it makes much difference in the local elections, if anything Labour is underperforming locally compared to its national poll rating. Last May for example the Labour NEV was only 35%, with many protest votes against the Tories going LD, Independent or Green instead.

Of course if she was charged and convicted of an illegal or corrupt illegal practice that is an automatic exclusion from the Commons of 3-5 years so she would have to step down as an MP (whereas normally only a criminal conviction and sentence of 1 year or more immediate custody forces an MP to resign their seat automatically)

Carnyx said:

Malmesbury said:

TOPPING said:

Heathener said:

Chris said:

Heathener said:

Malmesbury said:

Heathener said:

Off topic, I came through London earlier. I’ve recently praised the city but this is pretty grim.

Most of that is because they are stripping the station out. Due to late running and early opening, the amount of time they have to actually do work is limited in the passenger accessible areas. So they have to work in small increments over months

Hence the boards with silver tape, new block work and the netting while they clear out stuff in what was the ceiling voids.

I mean, three of the seven pics were the grubby inside of a tube train but okay.

@Chris I’ve lived in London lots.

Just not recently?

Fairly. I mean, rather than being slightly snippy (or at least that’s how this sensitive gal reads it) might it help if you explain where you’re coming from? Are you suggesting that London has deteriorated? If so, I’m inclined to agree I’ve got to say. I was up in Tottenham the other day with my son and again the week before and apart from the incredible stadium I can’t say things have improved much. I spent a week in town over Easter and it’s a great city but it’s not exactly clean

I could really get into a rant about how rubbish Heathrow is but I’ll spare y’all!

The last few years have seen unprecedented rises in immigration in London. What are you trying to say here.

Edit: JUST A BIT OF FUN EVERYONE FFS CALM DOWN.

@Heathener obviously misses Brie and his plan to build a shiny new airport to replace Heathrow.

I wonder how much money you could make by digging the A4 into a tunnel, then sell the land. Think of the boost in property value either side of it. I even worked out how to do it with a semi-submerged tunnelling shield to allow traffic to flow over it…

Prior art. WSC's pet machine c. 1940. N. B. No photo of it while ditching. For obvious reasons.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-48381470

My design made Cultivator look like a toy.

Digs a motorway (pretty much) from outside London, inwards. Traffic runs over the top, while it’s working.

The tunnel behind it (lanes in both directions) is used for spoil removal.

Foxy said:

Heathener said:

Anyway, moan over. I’ll leave the thread to get back to Angela.

I quite like her but I don’t know anyone else who does.

I didn’t actually realise you ‘have’ to put yourself on the electoral register. That would certainly encourage me to refuse to do so. The anti-State libertine in me objects. I may have mentioned before that I refused to fill in the census for similar reasons.

I would vote for Angela. She is a star performer.

Me too. Particularly in the way she pisses off the posh-boy Tories.

Malmesbury said:

TOPPING said:

Heathener said:

Chris said:

Heathener said:

Malmesbury said:

Heathener said:

Off topic, I came through London earlier. I’ve recently praised the city but this is pretty grim.

Most of that is because they are stripping the station out. Due to late running and early opening, the amount of time they have to actually do work is limited in the passenger accessible areas. So they have to work in small increments over months

Hence the boards with silver tape, new block work and the netting while they clear out stuff in what was the ceiling voids.

I mean, three of the seven pics were the grubby inside of a tube train but okay.

@Chris I’ve lived in London lots.

Just not recently?

Fairly. I mean, rather than being slightly snippy (or at least that’s how this sensitive gal reads it) might it help if you explain where you’re coming from? Are you suggesting that London has deteriorated? If so, I’m inclined to agree I’ve got to say. I was up in Tottenham the other day with my son and again the week before and apart from the incredible stadium I can’t say things have improved much. I spent a week in town over Easter and it’s a great city but it’s not exactly clean

I could really get into a rant about how rubbish Heathrow is but I’ll spare y’all!

The last few years have seen unprecedented rises in immigration in London. What are you trying to say here.

Edit: JUST A BIT OF FUN EVERYONE FFS CALM DOWN.

@Heathener obviously misses Brie and his plan…

Arghhhhhh.

We’re a tiny minority on here. Please show us some respect.

As a matter of interest, Boris’ estuary airport is one of the few things I agreed with him about. I think we should have gone for it. The ongoing regeneration of the east end would have been phenomenal.

Heathrow is increasingly terrible.

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Chris said:

bondegezou said:

Chris said:

eek said:

Energy Minister Graham Stuart has resigned from Rishi Sunak’s government

BBC: "he wanted to concentrate on issues such as making roads safer, broadband delivery, improving access to dentistry and healthcare, working with farmers on flooding, and increasing the number of defibrillators in his constituency"

I'd guess this is about the rules around ex-ministers taking jobs. If he resigns from government now, when he loses re-election, he can go straight into a job where they want him for being an ex-minister.

I think there is a two-year rule. Perhaps he calculated he could optimise his income by relinquishing the ministerial salary now, with a view to starting his post-political career sooner.

At 62, his post-political career might be a bit short. It's not a great point at which to become an ex-MP to be blunt. There will be quite a lot floating about, and many will be substantially younger and with longer ministerial CVs. He could really do with eking out another term as an MP.

People overestimate how many doors it opens to be a relatively nondescript, long in the tooth, ex-MP from a party which isn't in office. If someone gives him a job, it'll be a bit of a favour really.

At least at 62 if you lose your seat you are almost at retirement age anyway plus get a fat MPs pension too even if you don't get a high paid role after

Last comment because I’m doing a Sean here but it’s when you come through Changi, or Doha, Dubai, or Abu Dhabi that you realise how awful by comparison is Heathrow. It’s an irredeemable mess. Not as bad as JFK, granted.

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Osborne: Cameron is going to meetings that no normal British foreign secretary would get

The former chancellor believes his old ally is acting like the prime minister and has ‘upgraded Britain’s clout’

Lord Cameron is “acting like the British prime minister” on the world stage, George Osborne has said.

Mr Osborne said that the ex-prime minister had “upgraded Britain’s foreign policy clout” since becoming Foreign Secretary in November.

He added that Lord Cameron was “getting the kind of meetings that no normal British foreign secretary would get”, citing his recent visit to Mar-a-Lago to visit Donald Trump, the former US president.

Speaking on his Political Currency podcast, Mr Osborne said: “On the world stage, Cameron is acting like the British prime minister, which he was, and he’s getting the kind of meetings that no normal British foreign secretary would get.

“There’s no way that James Cleverly, or Liz Truss before him when she was foreign secretary, would have had dinner with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago.”

The Foreign Secretary made the trip to the Florida residence of the former US president, who is hoping to return to the White House, earlier this week to discuss the war in Ukraine, Nato and the Middle East.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/04/12/david-cameron-acting-like-british-pm-says-george-osborne/

I said on here the other day, that the one unequivocally good decision that Sunak has made as PM, was to persuade Dave back to be the country’s top diplomat.

Not only will he go and meet with anyone anywhere, but everyone else will take the meeting with the former PM.

I do wonder if Starmer might actually want to keep him on, at least for a few months.

There’s precisely no chance of Trump meeting with - checks notes - David Lammy.

No, Starmer won't keep Cameron on as Foreign Secretary, but he might be tempted to use the precedent as a justification for replacing him with Gordon Brown.

Heathener said:

Malmesbury said:

TOPPING said:

Heathener said:

Chris said:

Heathener said:

Malmesbury said:

Heathener said:

Off topic, I came through London earlier. I’ve recently praised the city but this is pretty grim.

Most of that is because they are stripping the station out. Due to late running and early opening, the amount of time they have to actually do work is limited in the passenger accessible areas. So they have to work in small increments over months

Hence the boards with silver tape, new block work and the netting while they clear out stuff in what was the ceiling voids.

I mean, three of the seven pics were the grubby inside of a tube train but okay.

@Chris I’ve lived in London lots.

Just not recently?

Fairly. I mean, rather than being slightly snippy (or at least that’s how this sensitive gal reads it) might it help if you explain where you’re coming from? Are you suggesting that London has deteriorated? If so, I’m inclined to agree I’ve got to say. I was up in Tottenham the other day with my son and again the week before and apart from the incredible stadium I can’t say things have improved much. I spent a week in town over Easter and it’s a great city but it’s not exactly clean

I could really get into a rant about how rubbish Heathrow is but I’ll spare y’all!

The last few years have seen unprecedented rises in immigration in London. What are you trying to say here.

Edit: JUST A BIT OF FUN EVERYONE FFS CALM DOWN.

@Heathener obviously misses Brie and his plan…

Arghhhhhh.

We’re a tiny minority on here. Please show us some respect.

As a matter of interest, Boris’ estuary airport is one of the few things I agreed with him about. I think we should have gone for it. The ongoing regeneration of the east end would have been phenomenal.

Heathrow is increasingly terrible.

Yes. I’d have built it using a variation of the system that the Norwegians used for Troll B.

Imagine a dining table. But with another top - at the bottom of the legs. The bottom one is covered in a cellular structure (to make it float) . Also it’s 1000 foot long, 200 foot high, 500 foot wide. Made in concrete and weighs a millions tons.

You find a patch of flat seabed - can be just mud. Sail your first platform into place, sink it. Bring in the next one. Because of the huge surface area of the base, the loading on the seabed is quite low.

So you can construct your airport as rapidly as you can build the pieces - dry dock work. You’d probably construct a special dock for building them.

And you can build the airport in any depth of water - just make the legs of the “tables” longer.

Heathener said:

MattW said:

Heathener said:

Malmesbury said:

Heathener said:

Off topic, I came through London earlier. I’ve recently praised the city but this is pretty grim.

Most of that is because they are stripping the station out. Due to late running and early opening, the amount of time they have to actually do work is limited in the passenger accessible areas. So they have to work in small increments over months

Hence the boards with silver tape, new block work and the netting while they clear out stuff in what was the ceiling voids.

I mean, three of the seven pics were the grubby inside of a tube train but okay.

@Chris I’ve lived in London lots.

I guess when you return from the UAE, Qatar, or Singapore this kind of grubbiness hits you especially if you land at the increasingly grotty Heathrow.

What's HTB in that context?

I know lots of HTB acronyms, but none that would make sense there.

Uh? Has that transposed itself from a different message that someone else made?

HTB? Holy Trinity Brompton?

Edit: Oh!!!!!!!!!!!! The HTB daubed on the tube train!!! Haha. Good spot.

I don’t know?

You're all thinking of the wrong alphabet. The clue is in the Z at the bottom, and the way the bar of the T looks like a rifle. The urban artist was expressing his love of the controversially creative (and US-sanctioned) Russian television channel NTV.

FF43 said:

ToryJim said:

Apparently Liz Truss’ musings on her short lived Premiership are being serialised in the Mail. Judging by this article it probably won’t be doing her any favours.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13289877/amp/queen-elizabeth-advice-liz-truss-revealed.html

So Truss' musings about her premiership will go on for longer than the premiership itself.

Possibly not if the Mail's circulation figures crash, and if they fill their paper with her nonsense that seems likely to me. Even for the Mail it seems a step down.

boulay said:

Heathener said:

Last comment because I’m doing a Sean here but it’s when you come through Changi, or Doha, Dubai, or Abu Dhabi that you realise how awful by comparison is Heathrow. It’s an irredeemable mess. Not as bad as JFK, granted.

I will try and find it, if I have nothing better to do, but I saw an international survey the other day that rated Heathrow second globally based on a load of metrics so, even if it’s not definitive, it’s clearly not that grim.

You could have travelled today on the Elizabeth line and posted pictures of amazing stations and modernity. You can go to anywhere, especially global cities and find great and grim. Sometimes the ones where everything is perfect are also the most authoritarian and so ina trade off I will take a bit of shabbiness over perfection.

London has always had the dirt, madness etc that makes people from overseas love it for not being bland or Disneyfied. When I was there for University and after it had great bits and dirty bits and I loved that. It was like me.

The other bit is newness. The Bakerloo line trains date from 1972. What was built in Dubai in 1972?

It’s easy to look shiny when everything is 20 years old or less.

HYUFD said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Chris said:

bondegezou said:

Chris said:

eek said:

Energy Minister Graham Stuart has resigned from Rishi Sunak’s government

BBC: "he wanted to concentrate on issues such as making roads safer, broadband delivery, improving access to dentistry and healthcare, working with farmers on flooding, and increasing the number of defibrillators in his constituency"

I'd guess this is about the rules around ex-ministers taking jobs. If he resigns from government now, when he loses re-election, he can go straight into a job where they want him for being an ex-minister.

I think there is a two-year rule. Perhaps he calculated he could optimise his income by relinquishing the ministerial salary now, with a view to starting his post-political career sooner.

At 62, his post-political career might be a bit short. It's not a great point at which to become an ex-MP to be blunt. There will be quite a lot floating about, and many will be substantially younger and with longer ministerial CVs. He could really do with eking out another term as an MP.

People overestimate how many doors it opens to be a relatively nondescript, long in the tooth, ex-MP from a party which isn't in office. If someone gives him a job, it'll be a bit of a favour really.

At least at 62 if you lose your seat you are almost at retirement age anyway plus get a fat MPs pension too even if you don't get a high paid role after

Gyles Brandreth's diaries suggest that it's those who lose in their 50s who have it worst. A bit too young to retire "early", but too old to easily reinvent yourself.

But your skillset and contact book still basically obsolete.

@boulay @darkage

Agreed, agreed. Over Easter I was on here singing the praises of fantastic London and what a vibrant place it is.

It just felt so dirty today

Ah well, I’m off to Scandinavia next week for up to two months.

The other decent thing about all London Airports is it generally takes only a few minutes to go through passport control as long as you don't have any issues with the automated gates. Arriving at EU airports involve some kind of performative interrogation at passport control. Even security works ok these days, most recently it took me 40 mins to get through security at Helsinki.

HYUFD said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Chris said:

bondegezou said:

Chris said:

eek said:

Energy Minister Graham Stuart has resigned from Rishi Sunak’s government

BBC: "he wanted to concentrate on issues such as making roads safer, broadband delivery, improving access to dentistry and healthcare, working with farmers on flooding, and increasing the number of defibrillators in his constituency"

I'd guess this is about the rules around ex-ministers taking jobs. If he resigns from government now, when he loses re-election, he can go straight into a job where they want him for being an ex-minister.

I think there is a two-year rule. Perhaps he calculated he could optimise his income by relinquishing the ministerial salary now, with a view to starting his post-political career sooner.

At 62, his post-political career might be a bit short. It's not a great point at which to become an ex-MP to be blunt. There will be quite a lot floating about, and many will be substantially younger and with longer ministerial CVs. He could really do with eking out another term as an MP.

People overestimate how many doors it opens to be a relatively nondescript, long in the tooth, ex-MP from a party which isn't in office. If someone gives him a job, it'll be a bit of a favour really.

At least at 62 if you lose your seat you are almost at retirement age anyway plus get a fat MPs pension too even if you don't get a high paid role after

He has a majority of 20 000. If he is worried enough to look at potholes for the next six months then we are looking at Tory oblivion.

Rayner 'will do right thing' in council house row

Labour's Angela Rayner says she will "do the right thing and step down" if she has committed a criminal offence over council house claims

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68801671

Angela clearly reads my PB posts! Not a chance she's guilty if she's doing a SKS right?

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 44% (-1)
CON: 24% (=)
REF: 11% (-2)
LDM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 6% (+1)
SNP: 2% (=)

Via
@wethinkpolling
, On 11-12 April,
Changes w/ 4-5 April.

https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1778832955378434485

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Chris said:

eek said:

Energy Minister Graham Stuart has resigned from Rishi Sunak’s government

BBC: "he wanted to concentrate on issues such as making roads safer, broadband delivery, improving access to dentistry and healthcare, working with farmers on flooding, and increasing the number of defibrillators in his constituency"

A potentially rather revealing decision with a majority above 20k (38%). Perhaps he genuinely wasn't that happy being a minister and wanted to return to just being a constituency MP. But it feels like nervousness even with a large majority.

He's 62 but hasn't indicated an intention to stand down, and it appears he'd like at least one more term.

If he can keep his seat, and the Tories go as low as some predict, he could be looking at a very senior Shadow Cabinet* role indeed.
May be a smart move.

* Assuming the Tories get to form the Shadow Cabinet of course.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

@boulay @darkage

Agreed, agreed. Over Easter I was on here singing the praises of fantastic London and what a vibrant place it is.

It just felt so dirty today

Ah well, I’m off to Scandinavia next week for up to two months.

I envy you and hope you enjoy the wonders of Scandinavia that we have explored many times and would love to do again but sadly no more international travel for us due to our health issues

Indeed we honeymooned in the Norwegian fjords in 1964

What a fantastic place for honeymooning. It’s a stunning country isn’t it?

I’m so sorry about your health issues and the travel impact. I don’t want to go all ‘toxic positivity’ but hold onto those wonderful memories.

xx

Wulfrun_Phil said:

HYUFD said:

I doubt it makes much difference in the local elections, if anything Labour is underperforming locally compared to its national poll rating. Last May for example the Labour NEV was only 35%, with many protest votes against the Tories going LD, Independent or Green instead.

I agree, but a more compelling piece of evidence for Labour's underperformance at local elections is this. There were two opinion polls conducted for the 2023 local elections in which those polled and who were planning to vote in the local elections gave Labour a 9% smaller lead in those local elections than in a general election conducted on the same day.

This year the difference between the Tory deficit in local and general election voting intention could be even greater than in 2024, because Reform are standing in virtually no seats for the local elections yet in 2024 unlike 2023 are surging in general election polls and will stand in most seats at the general election.

So on that basis I am expecting the following sequence of events:
1. The Labour NEV lead in the local elections will be declared at being no more than 10% and probably less.
2. This will throw Sunak a lifeline, with Tory MPs concluding that there is yet hope as they take the NEV at face value.
3. Hence no leadership challenge will materialise over the Summer months.
4. Tory MPs will let Sunak lead them into an Autumn or Winter general election.
5. On the back of Sunak's unpopularity, Starmer will secure a comfortable majority at the GE, at the very least.

For those very reasons there isn't really much value in Labour even wanting to win big in May.

Donkeys said:

Everyone assumes Keir Starmer wants to be PM. Perhaps he's wondering if there's a good path to resignation - his own. It was interesting that he wanted to resign after the Hartlepool by-election of May 2021.

Is there a market on who will lead Labour into the general election?

It seems like a post from May 2021 has taken three years to appear, are they using dial up?

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 44% (-1)
CON: 24% (=)
REF: 11% (-2)
LDM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 6% (+1)
SNP: 2% (=)

Via
@wethinkpolling
, On 11-12 April,
Changes w/ 4-5 April.

https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1778832955378434485

That looks like MoE stuff to me.

I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Donkeys said:

Everyone assumes Keir Starmer wants to be PM. Perhaps he's wondering if there's a good path to resignation - his own. It was interesting that he wanted to resign after the Hartlepool by-election of May 2021.

Is there a market on who will lead Labour into the general election?

It seems like a post from May 2021 has taken three years to appear, are they using dial up?

PING politicalbetting.com (134.213.27.83): 56 data bytes
64 bytes from 134.213.27.83: icmp_seq=0 ttl=54 time=31,556,952,007.768 ms
64 bytes from 134.213.27.83: icmp_seq=1 ttl=54 time=31,556,952,009.619 ms
64 bytes from 134.213.27.83: icmp_seq=2 ttl=54 time=31,556,952,009.352 ms
64 bytes from 134.213.27.83: icmp_seq=3 ttl=54 time=31,556,952,007.526 ms

GIN1138 said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Donkeys said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Donkeys said:

Everyone assumes Keir Starmer wants to be PM. Perhaps he's wondering if there's a good path to resignation - his own. It was interesting that he wanted to resign after the Hartlepool by-election of May 2021.

Is there a market on who will lead Labour into the general election?

It seems like a post from May 2021 has taken three years to appear, are they using dial up?

The information about Starmer was revealed eight weeks ago:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/17/keir-starmer-reportedly-wanted-to-quit-after-2021-byelection-defeat

Tip: think twice before posting sarcastic one-liners.

Yes but the idea Starmer doesn't want to be PM is palpably absurd as you well know.

He may do now, but whether he will have staying power when he and his government are pluming the depths of unpopularity in 2027 remains to be seen...

True point but this was about him resigning before becoming PM!

GIN1138 said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Donkeys said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Donkeys said:

Everyone assumes Keir Starmer wants to be PM. Perhaps he's wondering if there's a good path to resignation - his own. It was interesting that he wanted to resign after the Hartlepool by-election of May 2021.

Is there a market on who will lead Labour into the general election?

It seems like a post from May 2021 has taken three years to appear, are they using dial up?

The information about Starmer was revealed eight weeks ago:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/17/keir-starmer-reportedly-wanted-to-quit-after-2021-byelection-defeat

Tip: think twice before posting sarcastic one-liners.

Yes but the idea Starmer doesn't want to be PM is palpably absurd as you well know.

He may do now, but whether he will have staying power when he and his government are pluming the depths of unpopularity in 2027 remains to be seen...

Indeed, I think Starmer could end up a 1 term PM, a UK Francois Hollande with Wes Streeting taking over from him before the general election after next

darkage said:

The other decent thing about all London Airports is it generally takes only a few minutes to go through passport control as long as you don't have any issues with the automated gates. Arriving at EU airports involve some kind of performative interrogation at passport control. Even security works ok these days, most recently it took me 40 mins to get through security at Helsinki.

Spare a thought for me arriving at JFK on Sunday... Last time it took me two and a half hours to clear immigration. It was total chaos.

Malmesbury said:

boulay said:

Heathener said:

Last comment because I’m doing a Sean here but it’s when you come through Changi, or Doha, Dubai, or Abu Dhabi that you realise how awful by comparison is Heathrow. It’s an irredeemable mess. Not as bad as JFK, granted.

I will try and find it, if I have nothing better to do, but I saw an international survey the other day that rated Heathrow second globally based on a load of metrics so, even if it’s not definitive, it’s clearly not that grim.

You could have travelled today on the Elizabeth line and posted pictures of amazing stations and modernity. You can go to anywhere, especially global cities and find great and grim. Sometimes the ones where everything is perfect are also the most authoritarian and so ina trade off I will take a bit of shabbiness over perfection.

London has always had the dirt, madness etc that makes people from overseas love it for not being bland or Disneyfied. When I was there for University and after it had great bits and dirty bits and I loved that. It was like me.

The other bit is newness. The Bakerloo line trains date from 1972. What was built in Dubai in 1972?

It’s easy to look shiny when everything is 20 years old or less.

The Dubai World Trade Centre bulding was opened in 1979, three miles and across a creek from the existing financial centre. Sheikh Rashid said “If you build it, they will come”, and a couple of decades later they had the biggest financial centre in the region.

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Donkeys said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Donkeys said:

Everyone assumes Keir Starmer wants to be PM. Perhaps he's wondering if there's a good path to resignation - his own. It was interesting that he wanted to resign after the Hartlepool by-election of May 2021.

Is there a market on who will lead Labour into the general election?

It seems like a post from May 2021 has taken three years to appear, are they using dial up?

The information about Starmer was revealed eight weeks ago:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/17/keir-starmer-reportedly-wanted-to-quit-after-2021-byelection-defeat

Tip: think twice before posting sarcastic one-liners.

Yes but the idea Starmer doesn't want to be PM is palpably absurd as you well know.

He may do now, but whether he will have staying power when he and his government are pluming the depths of unpopularity in 2027 remains to be seen...

Indeed, I think Starmer could end up a 1 term PM, a UK Francois Hollande with Wes Streeting taking over from him before the general election after next

Highly unlikely 🤣🤣🤣

If he delivers a majority in the 100s there is no way he doesn't lead labour's GE campaign for a second term. Not a snowballs chance in hell.

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Donkeys said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Donkeys said:

Everyone assumes Keir Starmer wants to be PM. Perhaps he's wondering if there's a good path to resignation - his own. It was interesting that he wanted to resign after the Hartlepool by-election of May 2021.

Is there a market on who will lead Labour into the general election?

It seems like a post from May 2021 has taken three years to appear, are they using dial up?

The information about Starmer was revealed eight weeks ago:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/17/keir-starmer-reportedly-wanted-to-quit-after-2021-byelection-defeat

Tip: think twice before posting sarcastic one-liners.

Yes but the idea Starmer doesn't want to be PM is palpably absurd as you well know.

He may do now, but whether he will have staying power when he and his government are pluming the depths of unpopularity in 2027 remains to be seen...

Indeed, I think Starmer could end up a 1 term PM, a UK Francois Hollande with Wes Streeting taking over from him before the general election after next

Only thing about Wes Streeting is he could find himself in a bit of trouble at Ilford North if Galloway's party really takes off while Lab are in government?

GIN1138 said:

TRUSS has written a "memoir" on her 49 days in office.. Is it actually possible to have a "memoir" based on 49 days?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13301127/Downing-Street-prisoner-LIZ-TRUSS-political-memoir-PM-downfall.html

Well, David Laws did write a book called "22 days in May".

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 44% (-1)
CON: 24% (=)
REF: 11% (-2)
LDM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 6% (+1)
SNP: 2% (=)

Via
@wethinkpolling
, On 11-12 April,
Changes w/ 4-5 April.

https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1778832955378434485

That looks like MoE stuff to me.

I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.

The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.

You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?

"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."

https://www.sussex.ac.uk/broadcast/read/52513

There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.

GIN1138 said:

TRUSS has written a "memoir" on her 49 days in office.. Is it actually possible to have a "memoir" based on 49 days?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13301127/Downing-Street-prisoner-LIZ-TRUSS-political-memoir-PM-downfall.html

https://www.abebooks.co.uk/servlet/BookDetailsPL?bi=31709869038&cm_sp=rec-_-pd_hw_o_1-_-bdp&ref_=pd_hw_o_1

Piece of cake, room for a sequel!

Donkeys said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Donkeys said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Donkeys said:

Everyone assumes Keir Starmer wants to be PM. Perhaps he's wondering if there's a good path to resignation - his own. It was interesting that he wanted to resign after the Hartlepool by-election of May 2021.

Is there a market on who will lead Labour into the general election?

It seems like a post from May 2021 has taken three years to appear, are they using dial up?

The information about Starmer was revealed eight weeks ago:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/17/keir-starmer-reportedly-wanted-to-quit-after-2021-byelection-defeat

Tip: think twice before posting sarcastic one-liners.

Yes but the idea Starmer doesn't want to be PM is palpably absurd as you well know.

Whenever anyone has said me to "You know and I know...", they've always been wrong.

The information about May 2021 should prompt a rethink of the standard interpretation of Starmer's promise in May 2022 to resign if he got a fixed Covid penalty. Having killed the left of the party more effectively than Kinnock or Blair ever did, he's probably looking for an out to fuck off somewhere and play his flute.

He's on course to deliver the largest Labour majority ever on current polling, why would he want to quit? Can you explain why he'd want to quit now and not after winning? Are you sceptical he will win?

Cleitophon said:

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Donkeys said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Donkeys said:

Everyone assumes Keir Starmer wants to be PM. Perhaps he's wondering if there's a good path to resignation - his own. It was interesting that he wanted to resign after the Hartlepool by-election of May 2021.

Is there a market on who will lead Labour into the general election?

It seems like a post from May 2021 has taken three years to appear, are they using dial up?

The information about Starmer was revealed eight weeks ago:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/17/keir-starmer-reportedly-wanted-to-quit-after-2021-byelection-defeat

Tip: think twice before posting sarcastic one-liners.

Yes but the idea Starmer doesn't want to be PM is palpably absurd as you well know.

He may do now, but whether he will have staying power when he and his government are pluming the depths of unpopularity in 2027 remains to be seen...

Indeed, I think Starmer could end up a 1 term PM, a UK Francois Hollande with Wes Streeting taking over from him before the general election after next

Highly unlikely 🤣🤣🤣

If he delivers a majority in the 100s there is no way he doesn't lead labour's GE campaign for a second term. Not a snowballs chance in hell.

Depends on the economy, the immigration situation and the polling at the time.

Kevin Rudd another example, led Labor to a landslide victory in Australia in 2007 but was replaced as PM and Labor leader by the 2010 election, if not Streeting as Macron to his Hollande maybe Rayner will be his Julia Gillard if cleared of this incident?

Wilson of course got a majority of 98 in 1966 but still managed to lose the 1970 general election to Heath

Mexicanpete said:

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 44% (-1)
CON: 24% (=)
REF: 11% (-2)
LDM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 6% (+1)
SNP: 2% (=)

Via
@wethinkpolling
, On 11-12 April,
Changes w/ 4-5 April.

https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1778832955378434485

That looks like MoE stuff to me.

I am concerned that the voter ID refusals at polling stations and the 3 million expat Tory voters are not applied to opinion polls. The difference a small number of votes applied to marginal seats could make is mind numbing.

The expats haven't caused polls to collapse/disappear/produce ridiculous results ever before.

You are assuming that expats are all Tories. Why?

"An on-line survey carried out by University of Sussex academics reveals that the Conservatives’ share of overseas votes in the EU fell by two thirds between the 2015 and 2019 elections. The Labour and Liberal Democrat combined vote share rose from 56% in 2015 to 85% by 2019."

https://www.sussex.ac.uk/broadcast/read/52513

There were anecdotes of South African voters in 1992. I have looked for citations for you, but I can't find them. So urban myth or just a nightmare.

The usual excuse making bullshit. Kinnock was admitting in private they had a problem, based on polling in the U.K., before the election.

Much like the myth of the Falklands saving Thatcher.

The Left had a “we was robbed” story for every election I can remember. Including 1997…

Heathener said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

@boulay @darkage

Agreed, agreed. Over Easter I was on here singing the praises of fantastic London and what a vibrant place it is.

It just felt so dirty today

Ah well, I’m off to Scandinavia next week for up to two months.

I envy you and hope you enjoy the wonders of Scandinavia that we have explored many times and would love to do again but sadly no more international travel for us due to our health issues

Indeed we honeymooned in the Norwegian fjords in 1964

What a fantastic place for honeymooning. It’s a stunning country isn’t it?

I’m so sorry about your health issues and the travel impact. I don’t want to go all ‘toxic positivity’ but hold onto those wonderful memories.

xx

Thank you and yes we have so many memories of our travels worldwide over decades starting in 1964

Nigelb said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Northern_Al said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Northern_Al said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Northern_Al said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I know it is Guido but this may explain the police involvement in what appears to be a minor infringement

I simply cannot believe it is just where she lived for electoral purposes

https://order-order.com/people/angela-rayner/

They'd go after her if they thought she forgot to feed the school hamster when she was 7.

NB that the right-wing Tory media have alreadfy provided excellent evidence, in the form of timing of applications for adaptation of the later house for a disabled family member, that there was indeed a valid overlap period when the family were using both houses.

To be honest, as another poster has just said , best to wait the outcome of the police investigation

We can speculate as much as we want but we simply do not know the circumstances of the investigation but we will once the police conclude their investigation

Quite right, Big G. Best not to speculate through multiple posts, or link to speculation elsewhere, for example on Guido.

You wouldn't do that, would you?

Guido does provide an insight into the issues and is legitimate to refer to his post as his reasoning does provide information into possible allegations

However, I do not intend commenting further as I agree with the earlier poster it is best to leave it to the police

Possible allegations = speculation, which you are opposed to?

I think the subject has been well aired on here, and obviously upsetting some Labour supporters, so as I said I am not making any further comments until the police announce their decision

I don't want to add to the speculation, but apparently Angie was eating a take-away korma and swigging a can of lager as she walked between her Manchester houses.
Make of that what you will.

Not speculation, but BBC have just said on the 6.00 o'clock news that Angela Rayner has said she will step down if she has done anything wrong

They've also said she's entirely confident that she's done nothing wrong, as welcomes any police investigation, as it will draw a line under the matter.

It's most likely she's not done anything criminal, but that doesn't mean she's not done anything "wrong" ?

HYUFD said:

Cleitophon said:

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Donkeys said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Donkeys said:

Everyone assumes Keir Starmer wants to be PM. Perhaps he's wondering if there's a good path to resignation - his own. It was interesting that he wanted to resign after the Hartlepool by-election of May 2021.

Is there a market on who will lead Labour into the general election?

It seems like a post from May 2021 has taken three years to appear, are they using dial up?

The information about Starmer was revealed eight weeks ago:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/17/keir-starmer-reportedly-wanted-to-quit-after-2021-byelection-defeat

Tip: think twice before posting sarcastic one-liners.

Yes but the idea Starmer doesn't want to be PM is palpably absurd as you well know.

He may do now, but whether he will have staying power when he and his government are pluming the depths of unpopularity in 2027 remains to be seen...

Indeed, I think Starmer could end up a 1 term PM, a UK Francois Hollande with Wes Streeting taking over from him before the general election after next

Highly unlikely 🤣🤣🤣

If he delivers a majority in the 100s there is no way he doesn't lead labour's GE campaign for a second term. Not a snowballs chance in hell.

Depends on the economy and the polling at the time.

Kevin Rudd another example, led Labor to a landslide victory in Australia in 2007 but was replaced as PM and Labor leader by the 2010 election, if not Streeting as Macron to his Hollande maybe Rayner will be his Julia Gillard if cleared of this incident?

83/150 doesn't sound like landslide to me, but I guess Australia has been pretty close much of the time.

Tony Abbott got 90/150 in 2013 and he was gone in just under 2 years.

Come to think of it Albanese is going up on his 2 year anniversary, so it is probably nearly time for him to be ousted.

Despite the Cameron/May/Johnson/Truss/Sunak kerfuffle the Aussies still have us beaten on PMs.

GIN1138 said:

Nigelb said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Northern_Al said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Northern_Al said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Northern_Al said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I know it is Guido but this may explain the police involvement in what appears to be a minor infringement

I simply cannot believe it is just where she lived for electoral purposes

https://order-order.com/people/angela-rayner/

They'd go after her if they thought she forgot to feed the school hamster when she was 7.

NB that the right-wing Tory media have alreadfy provided excellent evidence, in the form of timing of applications for adaptation of the later house for a disabled family member, that there was indeed a valid overlap period when the family were using both houses.

To be honest, as another poster has just said , best to wait the outcome of the police investigation

We can speculate as much as we want but we simply do not know the circumstances of the investigation but we will once the police conclude their investigation

Quite right, Big G. Best not to speculate through multiple posts, or link to speculation elsewhere, for example on Guido.

You wouldn't do that, would you?

Guido does provide an insight into the issues and is legitimate to refer to his post as his reasoning does provide information into possible allegations

However, I do not intend commenting further as I agree with the earlier poster it is best to leave it to the police

Possible allegations = speculation, which you are opposed to?

I think the subject has been well aired on here, and obviously upsetting some Labour supporters, so as I said I am not making any further comments until the police announce their decision

I don't want to add to the speculation, but apparently Angie was eating a take-away korma and swigging a can of lager as she walked between her Manchester houses.
Make of that what you will.

Not speculation, but BBC have just said on the 6.00 o'clock news that Angela Rayner has said she will step down if she has done anything wrong

They've also said she's entirely confident that she's done nothing wrong, as welcomes any police investigation, as it will draw a line under the matter.

It's most likely she's not done anything criminal, but that doesn't mean she's not done anything "wrong" ?

More importantly, if she has done something wrong is it 'wrong if an opponent does it' wrong, or 'wrong in the eyes of the public whoever does it' wrong?

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Donkeys said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Donkeys said:

Everyone assumes Keir Starmer wants to be PM. Perhaps he's wondering if there's a good path to resignation - his own. It was interesting that he wanted to resign after the Hartlepool by-election of May 2021.

Is there a market on who will lead Labour into the general election?

It seems like a post from May 2021 has taken three years to appear, are they using dial up?

The information about Starmer was revealed eight weeks ago:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/17/keir-starmer-reportedly-wanted-to-quit-after-2021-byelection-defeat

Tip: think twice before posting sarcastic one-liners.

Yes but the idea Starmer doesn't want to be PM is palpably absurd as you well know.

He may do now, but whether he will have staying power when he and his government are pluming the depths of unpopularity in 2027 remains to be seen...

Indeed, I think Starmer could end up a 1 term PM, a UK Francois Hollande with Wes Streeting taking over from him before the general election after next

Only thing about Wes Streeting is he could find himself in a bit of trouble at Ilford North if Galloway's party really takes off while Lab are in government?

He’ll be fine in his seat, and I will keep my crown as being pretty much the only person ever to have beaten him in an election (with my running mates); the poison chalice of being health minister is more likely to hinder his prospects.

. . . meanwhile, back at Our Nation's Capital, under the Big Top . . .

Politico - How one NY GOP critic of Santos hopes to keep him off the House floor

Rep. Anthony D’Esposito is slated to introduce a resolution that would amend the rules to “deny certain privileges” to former members who have been expelled from the House.

One of George Santos’ biggest GOP critics is seeking to block expelled members like him from returning to the House floor and other Capitol hotspots open to former members.

Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.) is slated to introduce a resolution Friday morning that would amend the rules to “deny certain privileges” to former members who have been expelled from the House, according to a copy of the resolution first provided to POLITICO.

Those moves would include banning ousted members from accessing the members' gym, the exclusive members-only dining room in the Capitol and parking spaces around the complex, as well as blocking their access to materials in the Library of Congress or the House document room. The text also calls for expelled members to lose their member’s pin — an adornment that enables former members to waltz back onto the House floor, among other areas restricted to those who previously and currently serve in Congress.

D’Esposito was among those leading the charge against Santos while he was a serving member, which ultimately proved successful: In December, Santos was the first member to be expelled from the House without a conviction since the Civil War. . . .

Progressive Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) also pushed a similar idea earlier this year — one that would only block expelled members like Santos from the House floor.

He announced his rule — which he called the “GEORGE” Rule, or the “Getting Expelled Officially Revokes Guaranteed Entry” Rule — the day after Santos made a surprise appearance at President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address. . . .

SSI - Perhaps worth noting, that a former MP who made extensive use of HIS parliamentary "privileges" was none other than I.T. Trebistch Lincoln . . . at least until he was deported . . .

The_Woodpecker said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

darkage said:

The other decent thing about all London Airports is it generally takes only a few minutes to go through passport control as long as you don't have any issues with the automated gates. Arriving at EU airports involve some kind of performative interrogation at passport control. Even security works ok these days, most recently it took me 40 mins to get through security at Helsinki.

Spare a thought for me arriving at JFK on Sunday... Last time it took me two and a half hours to clear immigration. It was total chaos.

It was fine last week. 40 minutes or so.

Fingers crossed then!

Mexicanpete said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

If Wes took over Labour will do very well indeed.

Streeting has been a bit disappointing of late.

On the other hand, an alleged Zionist is losing votes.

I am very fearful of a Conservative revival. The BBC were going on about the bangin' economy this morning. A whopping 0.1% growth for February and an uptick to 0.3% for January.

Should get 0.5% growth in Q1 which ends any question of a recession and makes the economy larger than Sunak inherited (at last). But it has been a very tough 12 months or so. This week we found that the UK had risen from 7th to 4th largest exporter in the world, mainly on the back of very strong financial services*. But we still run a very substantial trade deficit and productivity remains a weak spot.

*It should be blindingly obvious to everyone now that Brexit has not impinged adversely on UK exports but I really cannot be bothered arguing about this again. There is none so blind as those who will not see.

kle4 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Angela Rayner may have fiddled herself 1000 odd quid, which is naughty, though hardly a King's ransome, but I can't get excited by this electoral roll nonsense. I've lived somewhere for years without telling the electoral roll. None of their business until I decide it's their business as far as I am concerned.

If the Tories go hard on this electoral roll stuff they'll make her a martyr.

Not even the Guido Fawkes report on the story thinks the electoral roll aspect is worth much attention, saying that it probably won't be recommended for prosecution and a perjury charge would be disporportionate, and saying both houses were in the same constituency so no political advantage to the situation.

A non story? From Guido? Really?

GIN1138 said:

Nigelb said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Northern_Al said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Northern_Al said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Northern_Al said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I know it is Guido but this may explain the police involvement in what appears to be a minor infringement

I simply cannot believe it is just where she lived for electoral purposes

https://order-order.com/people/angela-rayner/

They'd go after her if they thought she forgot to feed the school hamster when she was 7.

NB that the right-wing Tory media have alreadfy provided excellent evidence, in the form of timing of applications for adaptation of the later house for a disabled family member, that there was indeed a valid overlap period when the family were using both houses.

To be honest, as another poster has just said , best to wait the outcome of the police investigation

We can speculate as much as we want but we simply do not know the circumstances of the investigation but we will once the police conclude their investigation

Quite right, Big G. Best not to speculate through multiple posts, or link to speculation elsewhere, for example on Guido.

You wouldn't do that, would you?

Guido does provide an insight into the issues and is legitimate to refer to his post as his reasoning does provide information into possible allegations

However, I do not intend commenting further as I agree with the earlier poster it is best to leave it to the police

Possible allegations = speculation, which you are opposed to?

I think the subject has been well aired on here, and obviously upsetting some Labour supporters, so as I said I am not making any further comments until the police announce their decision

I don't want to add to the speculation, but apparently Angie was eating a take-away korma and swigging a can of lager as she walked between her Manchester houses.
Make of that what you will.

Not speculation, but BBC have just said on the 6.00 o'clock news that Angela Rayner has said she will step down if she has done anything wrong

They've also said she's entirely confident that she's done nothing wrong, as welcomes any police investigation, as it will draw a line under the matter.

It's most likely she's not done anything criminal, but that doesn't mean she's not done anything "wrong" ?

AFAIKS, yes.

What did you have in mind ?
Terminally confusing overexcitable Tory ministers ?

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

kle4 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Angela Rayner may have fiddled herself 1000 odd quid, which is naughty, though hardly a King's ransome, but I can't get excited by this electoral roll nonsense. I've lived somewhere for years without telling the electoral roll. None of their business until I decide it's their business as far as I am concerned.

If the Tories go hard on this electoral roll stuff they'll make her a martyr.

Not even the Guido Fawkes report on the story thinks the electoral roll aspect is worth much attention, saying that it probably won't be recommended for prosecution and a perjury charge would be disporportionate, and saying both houses were in the same constituency so no political advantage to the situation.

A non story? From Guido? Really?

He thinks the council tax element is a story, but the electoral roll part not really. He's a partisan hack, but even partisan hacks have occasional nuance.

I'd say that if the positions were reversed and it was about a Tory Rayner would certainly claim it was worth looking into, so she will have to bear it and hopefully be absolved.

Nigelb said:

kle4 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Angela Rayner may have fiddled herself 1000 odd quid, which is naughty, though hardly a King's ransome, but I can't get excited by this electoral roll nonsense. I've lived somewhere for years without telling the electoral roll. None of their business until I decide it's their business as far as I am concerned.

If the Tories go hard on this electoral roll stuff they'll make her a martyr.

Not even the Guido Fawkes report on the story thinks the electoral roll aspect is worth much attention, saying that it probably won't be recommended for prosecution and a perjury charge would be disporportionate, and saying both houses were in the same constituency so no political advantage to the situation.

A perjury charge wouldn't be 'disproportionate' it would likely be entirely groundless.

Quibbling over language used is somewhat irrelevant to the point that even a very right wing commentator who loves a scandal doesn't seen that aspect of the story as worth pursuing. That seems like a sound reason it's not going to be worth the Tories going after that part of it at the very least.

kle4 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Angela Rayner may have fiddled herself 1000 odd quid, which is naughty, though hardly a King's ransome, but I can't get excited by this electoral roll nonsense. I've lived somewhere for years without telling the electoral roll. None of their business until I decide it's their business as far as I am concerned.

If the Tories go hard on this electoral roll stuff they'll make her a martyr.

Not even the Guido Fawkes report on the story thinks the electoral roll aspect is worth much attention, saying that it probably won't be recommended for prosecution and a perjury charge would be disporportionate, and saying both houses were in the same constituency so no political advantage to the situation.

That is just pre-emptive mud slinging so when the police say no action, him and his mates can say no smoke without fire, bla, blah.