politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Survation/UNITE poll has CON holding onto Stockton S wh
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I hear their codenames are "pig" and "dog".TheScreamingEagles said:Two Conservative MPs are considering jumping ship to Nigel Farage’s party if it wins the Rochester and Strood byelection, Ukip candidate Mark Reckless said on Wednesday.
Reckless, the former Tory MP whose defection triggered the contest, made the claim on the eve of a vote likely to return him as Ukip’s second MP. Further defections would be likely to prompt a crisis in Downing Street about the haemorrhaging of the Tory vote six months before the general election, and potentially a move on David Cameron’s leadership.
Reckless, the clear favourite to win, said: “During the campaign I have spoken with two Conservative MPs about the possibility of their moving over and I think they will want to see what the result is before making any decisions. One of them I had discussions with by telephone and the other I met in an undisclosed location, not in the constituency. It is a very individual decision. And I feed back to Nigel [Farage] on those conversations.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/19/two-tory-mps-defect-ukip-wins-rochester-reckless
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Felix, I think we're at cross-purposes. My original point was that Stockton South was very M/C, my second point, in reply to rottenborough, that Stockton North - which is similar to Macmillan's old constituency - is not particularly M/C. Socially it's probably a long way above Middlesbrough, say, but a long way off Stockton South.felix said:
Not sure I'd agree there. Apart from Hexham it's probably the nearest to a strongly M/C area in the North-East. If the polls do creep back much further I would expect Wharton to hold Stockton south.Cookie said:
Harold Macmillan's Stockton was more akin to the modern Stockton North, and a much less likely Conservative seat. Stockton-on-Tees is a pleasant enough town and has some nice suburbs, but is in general not the sort of place you'd expect to incline to the Conservative Party.rottenborough said:
Excuse my ignorance, but how does it relate to Stockton, held by 'Super Mac' in 1940s?Cookie said:For the benefit of any under-informed southerners, Stockton South is actually very nice, and contains the small towns of Yarm (typical pleasant North Yorkshire market town, albeith with improbably rowdy weekend nightlife), Eaglescliffe, Egglescliffe (small country towns), Ingleby Barwick (massive post 1980 private housing development: nice enough if you like that sort of thing I suppose) and Thornaby. The latter is the only area which could reasonably be called working class, though far from uniformly. This is generally a pretty comfortable neck of the woods. If this constituency was anywhere south of the Trent it would be returning cofortable conservative majorities most of the time. The fact that it is even marginal show how strong Labour are in the North East.
All that said, a pretty poor survey for Labour. If they can't even change enough minds in Stockton South to nudge it over the line they'll be falling short elsewhere too. This isn't the working class north which popular wisdom would have us believe finds Ed's rather cerebral blend of socialism so unpalatable.0 -
No, their code names are "Hicks" and "Johnson"RobD said:
I hear their codenames are "pig" and "dog".TheScreamingEagles said:Two Conservative MPs are considering jumping ship to Nigel Farage’s party if it wins the Rochester and Strood byelection, Ukip candidate Mark Reckless said on Wednesday.
Reckless, the former Tory MP whose defection triggered the contest, made the claim on the eve of a vote likely to return him as Ukip’s second MP. Further defections would be likely to prompt a crisis in Downing Street about the haemorrhaging of the Tory vote six months before the general election, and potentially a move on David Cameron’s leadership.
Reckless, the clear favourite to win, said: “During the campaign I have spoken with two Conservative MPs about the possibility of their moving over and I think they will want to see what the result is before making any decisions. One of them I had discussions with by telephone and the other I met in an undisclosed location, not in the constituency. It is a very individual decision. And I feed back to Nigel [Farage] on those conversations.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/19/two-tory-mps-defect-ukip-wins-rochester-reckless
You get a prize if you get the reference.0 -
Carswell and Reckless are a similar age, from a roughly similar background, etc, which leads one to believe the two potential defectors will also be from the same general category. In other words, older MPs like Roger Gale and Gordon Henderson are perhaps unlikely to jump ship. Also I can't see any female Tories making the move.0
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If the Tories land within 5 or 6 of UKIP tomorrow, Reckless and Carswell will be wondering what the hell they have done.
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So can we assume that at least one of them isn't Jewish?RobD said:
I hear their codenames are "pig" and "dog".TheScreamingEagles said:Two Conservative MPs are considering jumping ship to Nigel Farage’s party if it wins the Rochester and Strood byelection, Ukip candidate Mark Reckless said on Wednesday.
Reckless, the former Tory MP whose defection triggered the contest, made the claim on the eve of a vote likely to return him as Ukip’s second MP. Further defections would be likely to prompt a crisis in Downing Street about the haemorrhaging of the Tory vote six months before the general election, and potentially a move on David Cameron’s leadership.
Reckless, the clear favourite to win, said: “During the campaign I have spoken with two Conservative MPs about the possibility of their moving over and I think they will want to see what the result is before making any decisions. One of them I had discussions with by telephone and the other I met in an undisclosed location, not in the constituency. It is a very individual decision. And I feed back to Nigel [Farage] on those conversations.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/19/two-tory-mps-defect-ukip-wins-rochester-reckless0 -
TSE please tell Stig Abell to stop wasting time tweeting pictures of some fat dyed blond non-entity and get on with releasing our daily YouGov!!0
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I don't know what to make of this Stockton poll. Obviously it's really good news for us Tories but 1. it's an individual constituency poll 2. there's no past weighting and 3. it's Lord Ashcroft.
I think we'd need to see a whole load more polls, but some signs of cautious optimism. To be holding on in November, when most people are miserable, six months out is good.0 -
Carswell at least seems like he would have a good shot at retaining his seat at the GE, a better chance than Reckless at any rate, and temperamentally he seems like he'd be more suited to be a big fish in a small pond anyway, notwithstanding his comments on the Tories at the moment which are over the top in the fashion of the newly converted, however little sense it makes for him to be so derisive of colleagues he was fine with a year ago.chestnut said:If the Tories land within 5 or 6 of UKIP tomorrow, Reckless and Carswell will be wondering what the hell they have done.
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From the Times.....
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.0 -
By falling in price by about 8p per litre or 6.5% over the past 6 months - hardly a bargain basement fire sale is it?DecrepitJohnL said:Petrol is cheap again, so you'd expect a boost for the government parties.
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Is it not UNITE?audreyanne said:it's Lord Ashcroft.
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BBC news london
School in East London that was rated outstanding has been put into special measures for failing to safeguard it's pupils leading to danger of radicalisation
I'm sure you can work out where it is and who is suspected0 -
Reckless has clearly invented this story to drum up support for tomorrow. It's the equivalent of trolling.TheScreamingEagles said:Two Conservative MPs are considering jumping ship to Nigel Farage’s party if it wins the Rochester and Strood byelection, Ukip candidate Mark Reckless said on Wednesday.
It suggests he can't hold his nerve, or it's tighter than we thought.
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The clue is in the name...."bone"....TheScreamingEagles said:From the Times.....
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.0 -
The last fire sale of petrol didn't end well.....peter_from_putney said:
By falling in price by about 8p per litre or 6.5% over the past 6 months - hardly a bargain basement fire sale is it?DecrepitJohnL said:Petrol is cheap again, so you'd expect a boost for the government parties.
...i'll get me coat.0 -
What a great name for a porn actor - particularly an ardent oneTheScreamingEagles said:From the Times.....
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.0 -
@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories back in front with one point lead: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%0
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It is a poll by Survation......audreyanne said:I don't know what to make of this Stockton poll. Obviously it's really good news for us Tories but 1. it's an individual constituency poll 2. there's no past weighting and 3. it's Lord Ashcroft.
I think we'd need to see a whole load more polls, but some signs of cautious optimism. To be holding on in November, when most people are miserable, six months out is good.0 -
We have crossover.
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories back in front with one point lead: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%0 -
Tipping point.TheScreamingEagles said:We have crossover.
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories back in front with one point lead: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%0 -
Hurrah, YouGov returns to the blues. The bean counters at YouGov will be getting dizzy at this daily yo-yoing.
Just spotted Survation now following me on Twitter. Better stop being overly rude about their polling accuracy.0 -
Ooops. Good job I didn't have a go at him this time then. My points stand.TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a poll by Survation......audreyanne said:I don't know what to make of this Stockton poll. Obviously it's really good news for us Tories but 1. it's an individual constituency poll 2. there's no past weighting and 3. it's Lord Ashcroft.
I think we'd need to see a whole load more polls, but some signs of cautious optimism. To be holding on in November, when most people are miserable, six months out is good.
However, much more interesting is Reckless's invented story. I've been around the block enough times to smell bullshit 100 miles away upwind, and this one is bs. The question then is 'why?' There are two explanations:
Either Reckless is a wet who can't hold his nerve
Or It's squeaky bum time
It could be a bit of both. What it isn't is a true story.0 -
IMHO if it's public, it's not happening.TheScreamingEagles said:Two Conservative MPs are considering jumping ship to Nigel Farage’s party if it wins the Rochester and Strood byelection, Ukip candidate Mark Reckless said on Wednesday.
Reckless, the former Tory MP whose defection triggered the contest, made the claim on the eve of a vote likely to return him as Ukip’s second MP. Further defections would be likely to prompt a crisis in Downing Street about the haemorrhaging of the Tory vote six months before the general election, and potentially a move on David Cameron’s leadership.
Reckless, the clear favourite to win, said: “During the campaign I have spoken with two Conservative MPs about the possibility of their moving over and I think they will want to see what the result is before making any decisions. One of them I had discussions with by telephone and the other I met in an undisclosed location, not in the constituency. It is a very individual decision. And I feed back to Nigel [Farage] on those conversations.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/19/two-tory-mps-defect-ukip-wins-rochester-reckless
If Reckless is saying that then although these Tory MPs are sympathetic, and have considered it in the past, they've now got cold feet and not planning to do so before the election.
They are just being polite to him.
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Tonight's YouGov poll might just deter any further Tory would-be UKIP defectors.0
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What? Again?TheScreamingEagles said:We have crossover.
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories back in front with one point lead: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
If sven jnr does join the kipperoonies then I think I'll survive the sadness and melancholy0 -
The Tories in the lead with the Lib Dems on 7 and UKIP on 14. Weird. Not particularly unusual of late but just weird. The lefty vote is more consolidated than it has been for a generation and the righty vote more split and the Tories are in the lead. Weird.0
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How long for though,a UKIP by election win and more tory defections.TheScreamingEagles said:We have crossover.
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories back in front with one point lead: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
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I'm disappointed in you thickos for not knowing the codename Johnson and Hicks is all about.0
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What about the lovely lady from Luton?AndyJS said:Carswell and Reckless are a similar age, from a roughly similar background, etc, which leads one to believe the two potential defectors will also be from the same general category. In other words, older MPs like Roger Gale and Gordon Henderson are perhaps unlikely to jump ship. Also I can't see any female Tories making the move.
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You don't get much "bone" in a university debating union.RobD said:
The clue is in the name...."bone"....TheScreamingEagles said:From the Times.....
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
Well, I didn't at Bristol anyway.0 -
I see the 34% Tory score is its highest since 23rd October.0
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http://www.johnsonhicks.com/TheScreamingEagles said:I'm disappointed in you thickos for not knowing the codename Johnson and Hicks is all about.
Now who's a thicko :-)0 -
You needed some of my chat up lines.Casino_Royale said:
You don't get much "bone" in a university debating union.RobD said:
The clue is in the name...."bone"....TheScreamingEagles said:From the Times.....
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
Well, I didn't at Bristol anyway.0 -
Not the correct answer.Tim_B said:
http://www.johnsonhicks.com/TheScreamingEagles said:I'm disappointed in you thickos for not knowing the codename Johnson and Hicks is all about.
Now who's a thicko :-)0 -
Do you think a 2-3% loss by the Tories would be a catastrophe?AndyJS said:
Is that an attempt at spin? Any type of loss would be a catastrophe for the Tories.chestnut said:If the Tories land within 5 or 6 of UKIP tomorrow, Reckless and Carswell will be wondering what the hell they have done.
I don't. A 18-point loss, yes. A loss will lead the news cycle no matter what happens. But this is pretty much priced in now.0 -
if reckless wins , the joy will be limitless when the treacherous pigdog (cf TSE) loses in May 2015. No point in saying ED is fecked..its there for all to see. the momentum isn't with Ed.0
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Isn't a debating union the classic definition of oral intercourse?Casino_Royale said:
You don't get much "bone" in a university debating union.RobD said:
The clue is in the name...."bone"....TheScreamingEagles said:From the Times.....
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
Well, I didn't at Bristol anyway.0 -
Kippers scoring 19% with YG in mid October seems not to have been continued.0
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My problem was I tried to debate with them on a 1:1 afterwards too. I'd have had more success with Dapper Laughs' technique.TheScreamingEagles said:
You needed some of my chat up lines.Casino_Royale said:
You don't get much "bone" in a university debating union.RobD said:
The clue is in the name...."bone"....TheScreamingEagles said:From the Times.....
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
Well, I didn't at Bristol anyway.0 -
Jacqui Smith and Iain Dale doing papers on Sky News. Poor woman is not wearing well.0
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It is spin, but some catastrophes are worse than others. Some disasters are survivable, some aren't. A loss in the range of 5-6 would probably give some actual hope until the next disaster hits, rather than just false bravado in the event of a larger loss.AndyJS said:
Is that an attempt at spin? Any type of loss would be a catastrophe for the Tories.chestnut said:If the Tories land within 5 or 6 of UKIP tomorrow, Reckless and Carswell will be wondering what the hell they have done.
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I make Dapper Laughs look subtle.Casino_Royale said:
My problem was I tried to debate with them on a 1:1 afterwards too. I'd have had more success with Dapper Laughs' technique.TheScreamingEagles said:
You needed some of my chat up lines.Casino_Royale said:
You don't get much "bone" in a university debating union.RobD said:
The clue is in the name...."bone"....TheScreamingEagles said:From the Times.....
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
Well, I didn't at Bristol anyway.
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It was more timed oral masturbation, to be honest.Tim_B said:
Isn't a debating union the classic definition of oral intercourse?Casino_Royale said:
You don't get much "bone" in a university debating union.RobD said:
The clue is in the name...."bone"....TheScreamingEagles said:From the Times.....
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
Well, I didn't at Bristol anyway.0 -
Kippers are a spent force.. they have had their day.. Everyone knows what their game is.. Reckless let the cat out of the bag. Dave will be proved right with his description of them..0
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Argh, if only I'd known you then.TheScreamingEagles said:
I make Dapper Laughs look subtle.Casino_Royale said:
My problem was I tried to debate with them on a 1:1 afterwards too. I'd have had more success with Dapper Laughs' technique.TheScreamingEagles said:
You needed some of my chat up lines.Casino_Royale said:
You don't get much "bone" in a university debating union.RobD said:
The clue is in the name...."bone"....TheScreamingEagles said:From the Times.....
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
Well, I didn't at Bristol anyway.0 -
Must be an outlierTheScreamingEagles said:We have crossover.
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories back in front with one point lead: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
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You can't believe a word Reckless says - he lied and lied and lied.0
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The magic number for the Tories in Rochester is UKIP winning by 12% or fewer.
Will prove Lord Ashcroft right and give the comfort that the traitorous Pigdog is going to be out on his arse next May.0 -
Welcome Kenneth QCSquareRoot said:Kippers are a spent force.. they have had their day.. Everyone knows what their game is.. Reckless let the cat out of the bag. Dave will be proved right with his description of them..
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LolAndyJS said:
Is that an attempt at spin? Any type of loss would be a catastrophe for the Tories.chestnut said:If the Tories land within 5 or 6 of UKIP tomorrow, Reckless and Carswell will be wondering what the hell they have done.
'Catastrophe' is rather over-spun there Andy. It won't be great, but the whole world and it's dog expects Reckless to win tomorrow. Therefore the scale is of some significance. Over 10% margin will very satisfactory for UKIP. Single figures less so. If the Conservatives are within 5-6% they will be pretty happy and some of the news leads will be 'but it was closer than some suggested,' which is what I'm getting from the Reckless nonsense tonight.
Nevertheless, the whole lot will soon be forgotten either way. Christmas is coming.0 -
The previous tory defections and carswell's win put no dent whatever in the tory yougov scores.Tykejohnno said:
How long for though,a UKIP by election win and more tory defections.TheScreamingEagles said:We have crossover.
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories back in front with one point lead: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
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Remind me on Friday to show/tell you my fingers chat up line.Casino_Royale said:
Argh, if only I'd known you then.TheScreamingEagles said:
I make Dapper Laughs look subtle.Casino_Royale said:
My problem was I tried to debate with them on a 1:1 afterwards too. I'd have had more success with Dapper Laughs' technique.TheScreamingEagles said:
You needed some of my chat up lines.Casino_Royale said:
You don't get much "bone" in a university debating union.RobD said:
The clue is in the name...."bone"....TheScreamingEagles said:From the Times.....
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
Well, I didn't at Bristol anyway.
It is one that has to be done in person.0 -
Jacqui's okay though.Easterross said:Jacqui Smith and Iain Dale doing papers on Sky News. Poor woman is not wearing well.
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You can believe him about repatriation.. its very BNP>TGOHF said:You can't believe a word Reckless says - he lied and lied and lied.
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Remember what IBM stands for - intercourse beats masturbationCasino_Royale said:
It was more timed oral masturbation, to be honest.Tim_B said:
Isn't a debating union the classic definition of oral intercourse?Casino_Royale said:
You don't get much "bone" in a university debating union.RobD said:
The clue is in the name...."bone"....TheScreamingEagles said:From the Times.....
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
Well, I didn't at Bristol anyway.0 -
He got 20k+ votes in 2010 - let's see how many gets tomorrow.TheScreamingEagles said:The magic number for the Tories in Rochester is UKIP winning by 12% or fewer.
Will prove Lord Ashcroft right and give the comfort that the traitorous Pigdog is going to be out on his arse next May.0 -
I look forward to it.TheScreamingEagles said:
Remind me on Friday to show/tell you my fingers chat up line.Casino_Royale said:
Argh, if only I'd known you then.TheScreamingEagles said:
I make Dapper Laughs look subtle.Casino_Royale said:
My problem was I tried to debate with them on a 1:1 afterwards too. I'd have had more success with Dapper Laughs' technique.TheScreamingEagles said:
You needed some of my chat up lines.Casino_Royale said:
You don't get much "bone" in a university debating union.RobD said:
The clue is in the name...."bone"....TheScreamingEagles said:From the Times.....
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
Well, I didn't at Bristol anyway.
It is one that has to be done in person.
Right, must hit the sack. Night 'all.0 -
What matters is not the expectation, but the result itself IMO.audreyanne said:
LolAndyJS said:
Is that an attempt at spin? Any type of loss would be a catastrophe for the Tories.chestnut said:If the Tories land within 5 or 6 of UKIP tomorrow, Reckless and Carswell will be wondering what the hell they have done.
'Catastrophe' is rather over-spun there Andy. It won't be great, but the whole world and it's dog expects Reckless to win tomorrow. Therefore the scale is of some significance. Over 10% margin will very satisfactory for UKIP. Single figures less so. If the Conservatives are within 5-6% they will be pretty happy and some of the news leads will be 'but it was closer than some suggested,' which is what I'm getting from the Reckless nonsense tonight.
Nevertheless, the whole lot will soon be forgotten either way. Christmas is coming.
If you're going to lose an election you always thought you'd win, suddenly telling everyone you've lost a few days beforehand doesn't work on anyone except the very naive.0 -
TSE is the Julien Blanc of PB!TheScreamingEagles said:
You needed some of my chat up lines.Casino_Royale said:
You don't get much "bone" in a university debating union.RobD said:
The clue is in the name...."bone"....TheScreamingEagles said:From the Times.....
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
Well, I didn't at Bristol anyway.0 -
Unprecedented, a Kipper whining and moaning
@Nigel_Farage
Of course an entire day of news coverage dedicated to a hustings comment. Barely anything on the heinous European Arrest Warrant vote today.0 -
"Why losing Rochester to Ukip is a total catastrophe for the Tories
Defeat in Kent this week would be a major disaster for the Conservatives - because it would convince UKIP that they could claim victory in similar seats across the country"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11238734/Why-losing-Rochester-is-a-total-catastrophe-for-the-Tories.html0 -
I don't know a single Conservative who always thought we'd win.AndyJS said:audreyanne said:
LolAndyJS said:
Is that an attempt at spin? Any type of loss would be a catastrophe for the Tories.chestnut said:If the Tories land within 5 or 6 of UKIP tomorrow, Reckless and Carswell will be wondering what the hell they have done.
'Catastrophe' is rather over-spun there Andy. It won't be great, but the whole world and it's dog expects Reckless to win tomorrow. Therefore the scale is of some significance. Over 10% margin will very satisfactory for UKIP. Single figures less so. If the Conservatives are within 5-6% they will be pretty happy and some of the news leads will be 'but it was closer than some suggested,' which is what I'm getting from the Reckless nonsense tonight.
Nevertheless, the whole lot will soon be forgotten either way. Christmas is coming.
If you're going to lose an election you always thought you'd win,0 -
UKIP need to win a seat where their winning candidate hasn't defected/wasn't already the incumbent.AndyJS said:"Why losing Rochester to Ukip is a total catastrophe for the Tories
Defeat in Kent this week would be a major disaster for the Conservatives - because it would convince UKIP that they could claim victory in similar seats across the country"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11238734/Why-losing-Rochester-is-a-total-catastrophe-for-the-Tories.html0 -
Its a desperate diversion, he is trying to stop the other Reckless story gaining any more traction in the news on the eve of the by-election.audreyanne said:
Ooops. Good job I didn't have a go at him this time then. My points stand.TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a poll by Survation......audreyanne said:I don't know what to make of this Stockton poll. Obviously it's really good news for us Tories but 1. it's an individual constituency poll 2. there's no past weighting and 3. it's Lord Ashcroft.
I think we'd need to see a whole load more polls, but some signs of cautious optimism. To be holding on in November, when most people are miserable, six months out is good.
However, much more interesting is Reckless's invented story. I've been around the block enough times to smell bullshit 100 miles away upwind, and this one is bs. The question then is 'why?' There are two explanations:
Either Reckless is a wet who can't hold his nerve
Or It's squeaky bum time
It could be a bit of both. What it isn't is a true story.0 -
UKIP 14 on YG.
Lowest since?0 -
What will prove him right TSE? Under 12% isn't what his poll said.TheScreamingEagles said:The magic number for the Tories in Rochester is UKIP winning by 12% or fewer.
Will prove Lord Ashcroft right and give the comfort that the traitorous Pigdog is going to be out on his arse next May.
I'm interested especially in his Labour share, which he has over-stated in every single poll to date. Remember his latest poll gives:
44% UKIP
32% Con
17% Lab
3% LibDem
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According to you the Tories were throwing the kitchen sink at it, and you were so disgusted with Reckless you were out campaigning against him.TheScreamingEagles said:The magic number for the Tories in Rochester is UKIP winning by 12% or fewer.
Will prove Lord Ashcroft right and give the comfort that the traitorous Pigdog is going to be out on his arse next May.
Now the magic number is losing by 12%, what a useless, gutless bunch of wankers you are0 -
There is a chance to win it back in 6 months - that's sooner than the next Sindy ref...TheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP need to win a seat where their winning candidate hasn't defected/wasn't already the incumbent.AndyJS said:"Why losing Rochester to Ukip is a total catastrophe for the Tories
Defeat in Kent this week would be a major disaster for the Conservatives - because it would convince UKIP that they could claim victory in similar seats across the country"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11238734/Why-losing-Rochester-is-a-total-catastrophe-for-the-Tories.html0 -
I am sure he would be equally outraged were there to be such focus on the comments of an opponent of his on the same day as something more substantive occurring.TheScreamingEagles said:Unprecedented, a Kipper whining and moaning
@Nigel_Farage
Of course an entire day of news coverage dedicated to a hustings comment. Barely anything on the heinous European Arrest Warrant vote today.0 -
Oooh. What other story? About him?fitalass said:Its a desperate diversion, he is trying to stop the other Reckless story gaining any more traction in the news on the eve of the by-election.
audreyanne said:
Ooops. Good job I didn't have a go at him this time then. My points stand.TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a poll by Survation......audreyanne said:I don't know what to make of this Stockton poll. Obviously it's really good news for us Tories but 1. it's an individual constituency poll 2. there's no past weighting and 3. it's Lord Ashcroft.
I think we'd need to see a whole load more polls, but some signs of cautious optimism. To be holding on in November, when most people are miserable, six months out is good.
However, much more interesting is Reckless's invented story. I've been around the block enough times to smell bullshit 100 miles away upwind, and this one is bs. The question then is 'why?' There are two explanations:
Either Reckless is a wet who can't hold his nerve
Or It's squeaky bum time
It could be a bit of both. What it isn't is a true story.0 -
The way the Tories are still gunning for this
http://order-order.com/2014/11/19/tories-attack-ukip-plans-to-privatise-the-nhs/
and Reckless's made-up story
… suggests to me this is a bit closer than UKIP fancied.
They will still win, but could be in single figures.0 -
No, it isn't.AndyJS said:Is that an attempt at spin? Any type of loss would be a catastrophe for the Tories.
A narrow loss implies a Tory regain in 2015 and a sign that the Clacton effect isn't being replicated.
Reckless has six months life in him, Carswell is Dougie-No-Mates from May.0 -
They last hit 14% with YouGov on the 8th of Octoberchestnut said:UKIP 14 on YG.
Lowest since?0 -
All the MSM and pollsters are on UKIPs case tonight. Well thats only to be expected. And as usual UKIP will only grow stronger.peter_from_putney said:Tonight's YouGov poll might just deter any further Tory would-be UKIP defectors.
The amount of PB Lab/Lib/Con bile directed at UKIP tonight on this thread is an object lesson in hatred, pure and simple.0 -
That would be helpful, although I do have some sympathy with UKIP frustration at being seen as a proper main party - even though it is false frustration as they have no wish to be regarded in the same ranks as the others - as the barrier of things they apparently 'need' seems to get pushed back every time. They need to win the Euros, they need to consistently do well at by-elections and maintain their place in the polls, they need to win a by-election, they need a Labour defection, they need a non-incumbent win.TheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP need to win a seat where their winning candidate hasn't defected/wasn't already the incumbent.AndyJS said:"Why losing Rochester to Ukip is a total catastrophe for the Tories
Defeat in Kent this week would be a major disaster for the Conservatives - because it would convince UKIP that they could claim victory in similar seats across the country"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11238734/Why-losing-Rochester-is-a-total-catastrophe-for-the-Tories.html
Having two MPs going in to next May is well beyond what they probably thought they'd get, and sets them up well to show their vote need not be wasted, and so a better chance of maximising their national vote, but really anything else in their favour they get between now and then is just a bonus.
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This is what I love about Kippers, abusive little chaps.nigel4england said:
According to you the Tories were throwing the kitchen sink at it, and you were so disgusted with Reckless you were out campaigning against him.TheScreamingEagles said:The magic number for the Tories in Rochester is UKIP winning by 12% or fewer.
Will prove Lord Ashcroft right and give the comfort that the traitorous Pigdog is going to be out on his arse next May.
Now the magic number is losing by 12%, what a useless, gutless bunch of wankers you are
You lot are so angry, no wonder you are so frustrated, explains why you lot are so dull in bed.0 -
Farage announcing the by-election result already, and before a vote has been cast....
Twitter
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 25m 25 minutes ago
Farage: Cocky Cam has cost Tories by-election victory: http://bit.ly/11iIDPKTheScreamingEagles said:Unprecedented, a Kipper whining and moaning
@Nigel_Farage
Of course an entire day of news coverage dedicated to a hustings comment. Barely anything on the heinous European Arrest Warrant vote today.0 -
Why not drop the coded speak and spell out your final solution for anyone who doesnt meet your stabdards.isam said:BBC news london
School in East London that was rated outstanding has been put into special measures for failing to safeguard it's pupils leading to danger of radicalisation
I'm sure you can work out where it is and who is suspected0 -
its nothing in comparison to the racist UKIP.. who knows what they will do to perfectly ordinary citizens of the EU who have a right to be here.. It all sounds very 1933.MikeK said:
All the MSM and pollsters are on UKIPs case tonight. Well thats only to be expected. And as usual UKIP will only grow stronger.peter_from_putney said:Tonight's YouGov poll might just deter any further Tory would-be UKIP defectors.
The amount of PB Lab/Lib/Con bile directed at UKIP tonight on this thread is an object lesson in hatred, pure and simple.0 -
Bile eh?MikeK said:
All the MSM and pollsters are on UKIPs case tonight. Well thats only to be expected. And as usual UKIP will only grow stronger.peter_from_putney said:Tonight's YouGov poll might just deter any further Tory would-be UKIP defectors.
The amount of PB Lab/Lib/Con bile directed at UKIP tonight on this thread is an object lesson in hatred, pure and simple.
Only one person has called other people on here wankers, and it ain't a Lab/Lib/Con.
Poor Kippers, always make idiots of themselves without any help from anyone else.0 -
There are other emotions at play too too. I for one make no secret that I want UKIP to win plenty of MPs and see their rise as a good thing for politics, but that doesn't stop me from agreeing with those who say UKIP play up their status as derided outsiders (and yes, I know it is not without some foundation, although it has become increasingly less true) to a silly degree and their spokespeople far too often whinge like they are competing for medals in it.MikeK said:
All the MSM and pollsters are on UKIPs case tonight. Well thats only to be expected. And as usual UKIP will only grow stronger.peter_from_putney said:Tonight's YouGov poll might just deter any further Tory would-be UKIP defectors.
The amount of PB Lab/Lib/Con bile directed at UKIP tonight on this thread is an object lesson in hatred, pure and simple.
I don't dispute it works, but it's so expected and generic each time it really seems no different than any other political party and their inept, lazy spinners, and yet UKIP are trying to appear different.
In that, they are completely like the others - ascribing standard political behaviours only to their opponents as though they were distinctly partisan behaviours.0 -
Reckless strikes one as being a complete tool. Is he a fantasist as well?audreyanne said:
Ooops. Good job I didn't have a go at him this time then. My points stand.TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a poll by Survation......audreyanne said:I don't know what to make of this Stockton poll. Obviously it's really good news for us Tories but 1. it's an individual constituency poll 2. there's no past weighting and 3. it's Lord Ashcroft.
I think we'd need to see a whole load more polls, but some signs of cautious optimism. To be holding on in November, when most people are miserable, six months out is good.
However, much more interesting is Reckless's invented story. I've been around the block enough times to smell bullshit 100 miles away upwind, and this one is bs. The question then is 'why?' There are two explanations:
Either Reckless is a wet who can't hold his nerve
Or It's squeaky bum time
It could be a bit of both. What it isn't is a true story.
Rochester deserves better. Anywhere deserves better.0 -
Why don't we have NightHawk threads these days?
I enjoy going through those links saying it's the anniversary of the battle of Cannae, Prince Philip's bath night etc.
I appreciate it takes time to prepare stuff like that.0 -
How could "Cocky Cam" cost the Tories a win if UKIP are really 10-15 points ahead?fitalass said:Farage announcing the by-election result already, and before a vote has been cast....
Twitter
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 25m 25 minutes ago
Farage: Cocky Cam has cost Tories by-election victory: http://bit.ly/11iIDPK
Is Nige tacitly implying it's much closer than that?
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I think there's been three or four nighthawks since August.Tim_B said:Why don't we have NightHawk threads these days?
I enjoy going through those links saying it's the anniversary of the battle of Cannae, Prince Philip's bath night etc.
I appreciate it takes time to prepare stuff like that.
Politics has got really interesting again, first with the indyref, then with conference season, then this by-election.
I expect it will be like this between now and May.0 -
Are you always completely bonkers @SquareRoot?SquareRoot said:
its nothing in comparison to the racist UKIP.. who knows what they will do to perfectly ordinary citizens of the EU who have a right to be here.. It all sounds very 1933.MikeK said:
All the MSM and pollsters are on UKIPs case tonight. Well thats only to be expected. And as usual UKIP will only grow stronger.peter_from_putney said:Tonight's YouGov poll might just deter any further Tory would-be UKIP defectors.
The amount of PB Lab/Lib/Con bile directed at UKIP tonight on this thread is an object lesson in hatred, pure and simple.
0 -
Wikipedia is indeed a great friend there.Tim_B said:Why don't we have NightHawk threads these days?
I enjoy going through those links saying it's the anniversary of the battle of Cannae, Prince Philip's bath night etc.
I appreciate it takes time to prepare stuff like that.
It is apparently the 1378th anniversary of The Battle of al-Qādisiyyah between the Rashidun Caliphate and the Sasanian Empire, which resulted in the Islamic conquest of Persia. How might history have turned had things gone the other way?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_al-Qādisiyyah
I had at least heard of the Sasanian Empire before looking at that page, which is something.
Also the anniversary of the opening of the Council of Clermont which ended with the call to the first Crusade.0 -
Cameron backs the #bedroomtax but not the #mansiontax. If you’ve got big money you’ve a friend in this PM; if not, he couldn’t care less.0
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Is it ok for me to support both of those taxes, or am I just ideologically confused I wonder?bigjohnowls said:Cameron backs the #bedroomtax but not the #mansiontax. If you’ve got big money you’ve a friend in this PM; if not, he couldn’t care less.
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not seen the bedroom questions on my tax return - is that new ?bigjohnowls said:Cameron backs the #bedroomtax but not the #mansiontax. If you’ve got big money you’ve a friend in this PM; if not, he couldn’t care less.
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He must like you, the amount of money in your pension pot makes you significantly better of than the majority of people in England. You don't seem very appreciative.bigjohnowls said:Cameron backs the #bedroomtax but not the #mansiontax. If you’ve got big money you’ve a friend in this PM; if not, he couldn’t care less.
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