Two Conservative MPs are considering jumping ship to Nigel Farage’s party if it wins the Rochester and Strood byelection, Ukip candidate Mark Reckless said on Wednesday.
Reckless, the former Tory MP whose defection triggered the contest, made the claim on the eve of a vote likely to return him as Ukip’s second MP. Further defections would be likely to prompt a crisis in Downing Street about the haemorrhaging of the Tory vote six months before the general election, and potentially a move on David Cameron’s leadership.
Reckless, the clear favourite to win, said: “During the campaign I have spoken with two Conservative MPs about the possibility of their moving over and I think they will want to see what the result is before making any decisions. One of them I had discussions with by telephone and the other I met in an undisclosed location, not in the constituency. It is a very individual decision. And I feed back to Nigel [Farage] on those conversations.”
For the benefit of any under-informed southerners, Stockton South is actually very nice, and contains the small towns of Yarm (typical pleasant North Yorkshire market town, albeith with improbably rowdy weekend nightlife), Eaglescliffe, Egglescliffe (small country towns), Ingleby Barwick (massive post 1980 private housing development: nice enough if you like that sort of thing I suppose) and Thornaby. The latter is the only area which could reasonably be called working class, though far from uniformly. This is generally a pretty comfortable neck of the woods. If this constituency was anywhere south of the Trent it would be returning cofortable conservative majorities most of the time. The fact that it is even marginal show how strong Labour are in the North East. All that said, a pretty poor survey for Labour. If they can't even change enough minds in Stockton South to nudge it over the line they'll be falling short elsewhere too. This isn't the working class north which popular wisdom would have us believe finds Ed's rather cerebral blend of socialism so unpalatable.
Excuse my ignorance, but how does it relate to Stockton, held by 'Super Mac' in 1940s?
Harold Macmillan's Stockton was more akin to the modern Stockton North, and a much less likely Conservative seat. Stockton-on-Tees is a pleasant enough town and has some nice suburbs, but is in general not the sort of place you'd expect to incline to the Conservative Party.
Not sure I'd agree there. Apart from Hexham it's probably the nearest to a strongly M/C area in the North-East. If the polls do creep back much further I would expect Wharton to hold Stockton south.
Felix, I think we're at cross-purposes. My original point was that Stockton South was very M/C, my second point, in reply to rottenborough, that Stockton North - which is similar to Macmillan's old constituency - is not particularly M/C. Socially it's probably a long way above Middlesbrough, say, but a long way off Stockton South.
Two Conservative MPs are considering jumping ship to Nigel Farage’s party if it wins the Rochester and Strood byelection, Ukip candidate Mark Reckless said on Wednesday.
Reckless, the former Tory MP whose defection triggered the contest, made the claim on the eve of a vote likely to return him as Ukip’s second MP. Further defections would be likely to prompt a crisis in Downing Street about the haemorrhaging of the Tory vote six months before the general election, and potentially a move on David Cameron’s leadership.
Reckless, the clear favourite to win, said: “During the campaign I have spoken with two Conservative MPs about the possibility of their moving over and I think they will want to see what the result is before making any decisions. One of them I had discussions with by telephone and the other I met in an undisclosed location, not in the constituency. It is a very individual decision. And I feed back to Nigel [Farage] on those conversations.”
Carswell and Reckless are a similar age, from a roughly similar background, etc, which leads one to believe the two potential defectors will also be from the same general category. In other words, older MPs like Roger Gale and Gordon Henderson are perhaps unlikely to jump ship. Also I can't see any female Tories making the move.
Two Conservative MPs are considering jumping ship to Nigel Farage’s party if it wins the Rochester and Strood byelection, Ukip candidate Mark Reckless said on Wednesday.
Reckless, the former Tory MP whose defection triggered the contest, made the claim on the eve of a vote likely to return him as Ukip’s second MP. Further defections would be likely to prompt a crisis in Downing Street about the haemorrhaging of the Tory vote six months before the general election, and potentially a move on David Cameron’s leadership.
Reckless, the clear favourite to win, said: “During the campaign I have spoken with two Conservative MPs about the possibility of their moving over and I think they will want to see what the result is before making any decisions. One of them I had discussions with by telephone and the other I met in an undisclosed location, not in the constituency. It is a very individual decision. And I feed back to Nigel [Farage] on those conversations.”
I don't know what to make of this Stockton poll. Obviously it's really good news for us Tories but 1. it's an individual constituency poll 2. there's no past weighting and 3. it's Lord Ashcroft.
I think we'd need to see a whole load more polls, but some signs of cautious optimism. To be holding on in November, when most people are miserable, six months out is good.
If the Tories land within 5 or 6 of UKIP tomorrow, Reckless and Carswell will be wondering what the hell they have done.
Carswell at least seems like he would have a good shot at retaining his seat at the GE, a better chance than Reckless at any rate, and temperamentally he seems like he'd be more suited to be a big fish in a small pond anyway, notwithstanding his comments on the Tories at the moment which are over the top in the fashion of the newly converted, however little sense it makes for him to be so derisive of colleagues he was fine with a year ago.
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
School in East London that was rated outstanding has been put into special measures for failing to safeguard it's pupils leading to danger of radicalisation
I'm sure you can work out where it is and who is suspected
Two Conservative MPs are considering jumping ship to Nigel Farage’s party if it wins the Rochester and Strood byelection, Ukip candidate Mark Reckless said on Wednesday.
Reckless has clearly invented this story to drum up support for tomorrow. It's the equivalent of trolling.
It suggests he can't hold his nerve, or it's tighter than we thought.
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
What a great name for a porn actor - particularly an ardent one
I don't know what to make of this Stockton poll. Obviously it's really good news for us Tories but 1. it's an individual constituency poll 2. there's no past weighting and 3. it's Lord Ashcroft.
I think we'd need to see a whole load more polls, but some signs of cautious optimism. To be holding on in November, when most people are miserable, six months out is good.
I don't know what to make of this Stockton poll. Obviously it's really good news for us Tories but 1. it's an individual constituency poll 2. there's no past weighting and 3. it's Lord Ashcroft.
I think we'd need to see a whole load more polls, but some signs of cautious optimism. To be holding on in November, when most people are miserable, six months out is good.
It is a poll by Survation......
Ooops. Good job I didn't have a go at him this time then. My points stand.
However, much more interesting is Reckless's invented story. I've been around the block enough times to smell bullshit 100 miles away upwind, and this one is bs. The question then is 'why?' There are two explanations:
Either Reckless is a wet who can't hold his nerve Or It's squeaky bum time
It could be a bit of both. What it isn't is a true story.
Two Conservative MPs are considering jumping ship to Nigel Farage’s party if it wins the Rochester and Strood byelection, Ukip candidate Mark Reckless said on Wednesday.
Reckless, the former Tory MP whose defection triggered the contest, made the claim on the eve of a vote likely to return him as Ukip’s second MP. Further defections would be likely to prompt a crisis in Downing Street about the haemorrhaging of the Tory vote six months before the general election, and potentially a move on David Cameron’s leadership.
Reckless, the clear favourite to win, said: “During the campaign I have spoken with two Conservative MPs about the possibility of their moving over and I think they will want to see what the result is before making any decisions. One of them I had discussions with by telephone and the other I met in an undisclosed location, not in the constituency. It is a very individual decision. And I feed back to Nigel [Farage] on those conversations.”
If Reckless is saying that then although these Tory MPs are sympathetic, and have considered it in the past, they've now got cold feet and not planning to do so before the election.
The Tories in the lead with the Lib Dems on 7 and UKIP on 14. Weird. Not particularly unusual of late but just weird. The lefty vote is more consolidated than it has been for a generation and the righty vote more split and the Tories are in the lead. Weird.
Carswell and Reckless are a similar age, from a roughly similar background, etc, which leads one to believe the two potential defectors will also be from the same general category. In other words, older MPs like Roger Gale and Gordon Henderson are perhaps unlikely to jump ship. Also I can't see any female Tories making the move.
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
The clue is in the name...."bone"....
You don't get much "bone" in a university debating union.
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
The clue is in the name...."bone"....
You don't get much "bone" in a university debating union.
if reckless wins , the joy will be limitless when the treacherous pigdog (cf TSE) loses in May 2015. No point in saying ED is fecked..its there for all to see. the momentum isn't with Ed.
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
The clue is in the name...."bone"....
You don't get much "bone" in a university debating union.
Well, I didn't at Bristol anyway.
Isn't a debating union the classic definition of oral intercourse?
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
The clue is in the name...."bone"....
You don't get much "bone" in a university debating union.
Well, I didn't at Bristol anyway.
You needed some of my chat up lines.
My problem was I tried to debate with them on a 1:1 afterwards too. I'd have had more success with Dapper Laughs' technique.
If the Tories land within 5 or 6 of UKIP tomorrow, Reckless and Carswell will be wondering what the hell they have done.
Is that an attempt at spin? Any type of loss would be a catastrophe for the Tories.
It is spin, but some catastrophes are worse than others. Some disasters are survivable, some aren't. A loss in the range of 5-6 would probably give some actual hope until the next disaster hits, rather than just false bravado in the event of a larger loss.
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
The clue is in the name...."bone"....
You don't get much "bone" in a university debating union.
Well, I didn't at Bristol anyway.
You needed some of my chat up lines.
My problem was I tried to debate with them on a 1:1 afterwards too. I'd have had more success with Dapper Laughs' technique.
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
The clue is in the name...."bone"....
You don't get much "bone" in a university debating union.
Well, I didn't at Bristol anyway.
Isn't a debating union the classic definition of oral intercourse?
It was more timed oral masturbation, to be honest.
Kippers are a spent force.. they have had their day.. Everyone knows what their game is.. Reckless let the cat out of the bag. Dave will be proved right with his description of them..
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
The clue is in the name...."bone"....
You don't get much "bone" in a university debating union.
Well, I didn't at Bristol anyway.
You needed some of my chat up lines.
My problem was I tried to debate with them on a 1:1 afterwards too. I'd have had more success with Dapper Laughs' technique.
Kippers are a spent force.. they have had their day.. Everyone knows what their game is.. Reckless let the cat out of the bag. Dave will be proved right with his description of them..
If the Tories land within 5 or 6 of UKIP tomorrow, Reckless and Carswell will be wondering what the hell they have done.
Is that an attempt at spin? Any type of loss would be a catastrophe for the Tories.
Lol
'Catastrophe' is rather over-spun there Andy. It won't be great, but the whole world and it's dog expects Reckless to win tomorrow. Therefore the scale is of some significance. Over 10% margin will very satisfactory for UKIP. Single figures less so. If the Conservatives are within 5-6% they will be pretty happy and some of the news leads will be 'but it was closer than some suggested,' which is what I'm getting from the Reckless nonsense tonight.
Nevertheless, the whole lot will soon be forgotten either way. Christmas is coming.
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
The clue is in the name...."bone"....
You don't get much "bone" in a university debating union.
Well, I didn't at Bristol anyway.
You needed some of my chat up lines.
My problem was I tried to debate with them on a 1:1 afterwards too. I'd have had more success with Dapper Laughs' technique.
I make Dapper Laughs look subtle.
Argh, if only I'd known you then.
Remind me on Friday to show/tell you my fingers chat up line.
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
The clue is in the name...."bone"....
You don't get much "bone" in a university debating union.
Well, I didn't at Bristol anyway.
Isn't a debating union the classic definition of oral intercourse?
It was more timed oral masturbation, to be honest.
Remember what IBM stands for - intercourse beats masturbation
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
The clue is in the name...."bone"....
You don't get much "bone" in a university debating union.
Well, I didn't at Bristol anyway.
You needed some of my chat up lines.
My problem was I tried to debate with them on a 1:1 afterwards too. I'd have had more success with Dapper Laughs' technique.
I make Dapper Laughs look subtle.
Argh, if only I'd known you then.
Remind me on Friday to show/tell you my fingers chat up line.
If the Tories land within 5 or 6 of UKIP tomorrow, Reckless and Carswell will be wondering what the hell they have done.
Is that an attempt at spin? Any type of loss would be a catastrophe for the Tories.
Lol
'Catastrophe' is rather over-spun there Andy. It won't be great, but the whole world and it's dog expects Reckless to win tomorrow. Therefore the scale is of some significance. Over 10% margin will very satisfactory for UKIP. Single figures less so. If the Conservatives are within 5-6% they will be pretty happy and some of the news leads will be 'but it was closer than some suggested,' which is what I'm getting from the Reckless nonsense tonight.
Nevertheless, the whole lot will soon be forgotten either way. Christmas is coming.
What matters is not the expectation, but the result itself IMO.
If you're going to lose an election you always thought you'd win, suddenly telling everyone you've lost a few days beforehand doesn't work on anyone except the very naive.
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
The clue is in the name...."bone"....
You don't get much "bone" in a university debating union.
"Why losing Rochester to Ukip is a total catastrophe for the Tories
Defeat in Kent this week would be a major disaster for the Conservatives - because it would convince UKIP that they could claim victory in similar seats across the country"
If the Tories land within 5 or 6 of UKIP tomorrow, Reckless and Carswell will be wondering what the hell they have done.
Is that an attempt at spin? Any type of loss would be a catastrophe for the Tories.
Lol
'Catastrophe' is rather over-spun there Andy. It won't be great, but the whole world and it's dog expects Reckless to win tomorrow. Therefore the scale is of some significance. Over 10% margin will very satisfactory for UKIP. Single figures less so. If the Conservatives are within 5-6% they will be pretty happy and some of the news leads will be 'but it was closer than some suggested,' which is what I'm getting from the Reckless nonsense tonight.
Nevertheless, the whole lot will soon be forgotten either way. Christmas is coming.
If you're going to lose an election you always thought you'd win,
I don't know a single Conservative who always thought we'd win.
"Why losing Rochester to Ukip is a total catastrophe for the Tories
Defeat in Kent this week would be a major disaster for the Conservatives - because it would convince UKIP that they could claim victory in similar seats across the country"
I don't know what to make of this Stockton poll. Obviously it's really good news for us Tories but 1. it's an individual constituency poll 2. there's no past weighting and 3. it's Lord Ashcroft.
I think we'd need to see a whole load more polls, but some signs of cautious optimism. To be holding on in November, when most people are miserable, six months out is good.
It is a poll by Survation......
Ooops. Good job I didn't have a go at him this time then. My points stand.
However, much more interesting is Reckless's invented story. I've been around the block enough times to smell bullshit 100 miles away upwind, and this one is bs. The question then is 'why?' There are two explanations:
Either Reckless is a wet who can't hold his nerve Or It's squeaky bum time
It could be a bit of both. What it isn't is a true story.
"Why losing Rochester to Ukip is a total catastrophe for the Tories
Defeat in Kent this week would be a major disaster for the Conservatives - because it would convince UKIP that they could claim victory in similar seats across the country"
Of course an entire day of news coverage dedicated to a hustings comment. Barely anything on the heinous European Arrest Warrant vote today.
I am sure he would be equally outraged were there to be such focus on the comments of an opponent of his on the same day as something more substantive occurring.
I don't know what to make of this Stockton poll. Obviously it's really good news for us Tories but 1. it's an individual constituency poll 2. there's no past weighting and 3. it's Lord Ashcroft.
I think we'd need to see a whole load more polls, but some signs of cautious optimism. To be holding on in November, when most people are miserable, six months out is good.
It is a poll by Survation......
Ooops. Good job I didn't have a go at him this time then. My points stand.
However, much more interesting is Reckless's invented story. I've been around the block enough times to smell bullshit 100 miles away upwind, and this one is bs. The question then is 'why?' There are two explanations:
Either Reckless is a wet who can't hold his nerve Or It's squeaky bum time
It could be a bit of both. What it isn't is a true story.
"Why losing Rochester to Ukip is a total catastrophe for the Tories
Defeat in Kent this week would be a major disaster for the Conservatives - because it would convince UKIP that they could claim victory in similar seats across the country"
UKIP need to win a seat where their winning candidate hasn't defected/wasn't already the incumbent.
That would be helpful, although I do have some sympathy with UKIP frustration at being seen as a proper main party - even though it is false frustration as they have no wish to be regarded in the same ranks as the others - as the barrier of things they apparently 'need' seems to get pushed back every time. They need to win the Euros, they need to consistently do well at by-elections and maintain their place in the polls, they need to win a by-election, they need a Labour defection, they need a non-incumbent win.
Having two MPs going in to next May is well beyond what they probably thought they'd get, and sets them up well to show their vote need not be wasted, and so a better chance of maximising their national vote, but really anything else in their favour they get between now and then is just a bonus.
Farage announcing the by-election result already, and before a vote has been cast.... Twitter Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 25m 25 minutes ago Farage: Cocky Cam has cost Tories by-election victory: http://bit.ly/11iIDPK
School in East London that was rated outstanding has been put into special measures for failing to safeguard it's pupils leading to danger of radicalisation
I'm sure you can work out where it is and who is suspected
Why not drop the coded speak and spell out your final solution for anyone who doesnt meet your stabdards.
Tonight's YouGov poll might just deter any further Tory would-be UKIP defectors.
All the MSM and pollsters are on UKIPs case tonight. Well thats only to be expected. And as usual UKIP will only grow stronger.
The amount of PB Lab/Lib/Con bile directed at UKIP tonight on this thread is an object lesson in hatred, pure and simple.
its nothing in comparison to the racist UKIP.. who knows what they will do to perfectly ordinary citizens of the EU who have a right to be here.. It all sounds very 1933.
Tonight's YouGov poll might just deter any further Tory would-be UKIP defectors.
All the MSM and pollsters are on UKIPs case tonight. Well thats only to be expected. And as usual UKIP will only grow stronger.
The amount of PB Lab/Lib/Con bile directed at UKIP tonight on this thread is an object lesson in hatred, pure and simple.
There are other emotions at play too too. I for one make no secret that I want UKIP to win plenty of MPs and see their rise as a good thing for politics, but that doesn't stop me from agreeing with those who say UKIP play up their status as derided outsiders (and yes, I know it is not without some foundation, although it has become increasingly less true) to a silly degree and their spokespeople far too often whinge like they are competing for medals in it. I don't dispute it works, but it's so expected and generic each time it really seems no different than any other political party and their inept, lazy spinners, and yet UKIP are trying to appear different.
In that, they are completely like the others - ascribing standard political behaviours only to their opponents as though they were distinctly partisan behaviours.
I don't know what to make of this Stockton poll. Obviously it's really good news for us Tories but 1. it's an individual constituency poll 2. there's no past weighting and 3. it's Lord Ashcroft.
I think we'd need to see a whole load more polls, but some signs of cautious optimism. To be holding on in November, when most people are miserable, six months out is good.
It is a poll by Survation......
Ooops. Good job I didn't have a go at him this time then. My points stand.
However, much more interesting is Reckless's invented story. I've been around the block enough times to smell bullshit 100 miles away upwind, and this one is bs. The question then is 'why?' There are two explanations:
Either Reckless is a wet who can't hold his nerve Or It's squeaky bum time
It could be a bit of both. What it isn't is a true story.
Reckless strikes one as being a complete tool. Is he a fantasist as well?
Farage announcing the by-election result already, and before a vote has been cast.... Twitter Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 25m 25 minutes ago Farage: Cocky Cam has cost Tories by-election victory: http://bit.ly/11iIDPK
How could "Cocky Cam" cost the Tories a win if UKIP are really 10-15 points ahead?
Is Nige tacitly implying it's much closer than that?
Tonight's YouGov poll might just deter any further Tory would-be UKIP defectors.
All the MSM and pollsters are on UKIPs case tonight. Well thats only to be expected. And as usual UKIP will only grow stronger.
The amount of PB Lab/Lib/Con bile directed at UKIP tonight on this thread is an object lesson in hatred, pure and simple.
its nothing in comparison to the racist UKIP.. who knows what they will do to perfectly ordinary citizens of the EU who have a right to be here.. It all sounds very 1933.
I enjoy going through those links saying it's the anniversary of the battle of Cannae, Prince Philip's bath night etc.
I appreciate it takes time to prepare stuff like that.
Wikipedia is indeed a great friend there.
It is apparently the 1378th anniversary of The Battle of al-Qādisiyyah between the Rashidun Caliphate and the Sasanian Empire, which resulted in the Islamic conquest of Persia. How might history have turned had things gone the other way?
Cameron backs the #bedroomtax but not the #mansiontax. If you’ve got big money you’ve a friend in this PM; if not, he couldn’t care less.
He must like you, the amount of money in your pension pot makes you significantly better of than the majority of people in England. You don't seem very appreciative.
Comments
You get a prize if you get the reference.
I think we'd need to see a whole load more polls, but some signs of cautious optimism. To be holding on in November, when most people are miserable, six months out is good.
Tories will be further unsettled by news that Peter Bone, the ardent Eurosceptic, will tonight (Thursday) join the Ukip team in a debate at the Cambridge Union.
School in East London that was rated outstanding has been put into special measures for failing to safeguard it's pupils leading to danger of radicalisation
I'm sure you can work out where it is and who is suspected
It suggests he can't hold his nerve, or it's tighter than we thought.
...i'll get me coat.
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories back in front with one point lead: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
Just spotted Survation now following me on Twitter. Better stop being overly rude about their polling accuracy.
However, much more interesting is Reckless's invented story. I've been around the block enough times to smell bullshit 100 miles away upwind, and this one is bs. The question then is 'why?' There are two explanations:
Either Reckless is a wet who can't hold his nerve
Or It's squeaky bum time
It could be a bit of both. What it isn't is a true story.
If Reckless is saying that then although these Tory MPs are sympathetic, and have considered it in the past, they've now got cold feet and not planning to do so before the election.
They are just being polite to him.
If sven jnr does join the kipperoonies then I think I'll survive the sadness and melancholy
Well, I didn't at Bristol anyway.
Now who's a thicko :-)
I don't. A 18-point loss, yes. A loss will lead the news cycle no matter what happens. But this is pretty much priced in now.
Will prove Lord Ashcroft right and give the comfort that the traitorous Pigdog is going to be out on his arse next May.
'Catastrophe' is rather over-spun there Andy. It won't be great, but the whole world and it's dog expects Reckless to win tomorrow. Therefore the scale is of some significance. Over 10% margin will very satisfactory for UKIP. Single figures less so. If the Conservatives are within 5-6% they will be pretty happy and some of the news leads will be 'but it was closer than some suggested,' which is what I'm getting from the Reckless nonsense tonight.
Nevertheless, the whole lot will soon be forgotten either way. Christmas is coming.
It is one that has to be done in person.
Right, must hit the sack. Night 'all.
If you're going to lose an election you always thought you'd win, suddenly telling everyone you've lost a few days beforehand doesn't work on anyone except the very naive.
@Nigel_Farage
Of course an entire day of news coverage dedicated to a hustings comment. Barely anything on the heinous European Arrest Warrant vote today.
Defeat in Kent this week would be a major disaster for the Conservatives - because it would convince UKIP that they could claim victory in similar seats across the country"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11238734/Why-losing-Rochester-is-a-total-catastrophe-for-the-Tories.html
Lowest since?
I'm interested especially in his Labour share, which he has over-stated in every single poll to date. Remember his latest poll gives:
44% UKIP
32% Con
17% Lab
3% LibDem
Now the magic number is losing by 12%, what a useless, gutless bunch of wankers you are
http://order-order.com/2014/11/19/tories-attack-ukip-plans-to-privatise-the-nhs/
and Reckless's made-up story
… suggests to me this is a bit closer than UKIP fancied.
They will still win, but could be in single figures.
A narrow loss implies a Tory regain in 2015 and a sign that the Clacton effect isn't being replicated.
Reckless has six months life in him, Carswell is Dougie-No-Mates from May.
The amount of PB Lab/Lib/Con bile directed at UKIP tonight on this thread is an object lesson in hatred, pure and simple.
Having two MPs going in to next May is well beyond what they probably thought they'd get, and sets them up well to show their vote need not be wasted, and so a better chance of maximising their national vote, but really anything else in their favour they get between now and then is just a bonus.
You lot are so angry, no wonder you are so frustrated, explains why you lot are so dull in bed.
Twitter
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 25m 25 minutes ago
Farage: Cocky Cam has cost Tories by-election victory: http://bit.ly/11iIDPK
Only one person has called other people on here wankers, and it ain't a Lab/Lib/Con.
Poor Kippers, always make idiots of themselves without any help from anyone else.
I don't dispute it works, but it's so expected and generic each time it really seems no different than any other political party and their inept, lazy spinners, and yet UKIP are trying to appear different.
In that, they are completely like the others - ascribing standard political behaviours only to their opponents as though they were distinctly partisan behaviours.
Rochester deserves better. Anywhere deserves better.
I enjoy going through those links saying it's the anniversary of the battle of Cannae, Prince Philip's bath night etc.
I appreciate it takes time to prepare stuff like that.
Is Nige tacitly implying it's much closer than that?
Politics has got really interesting again, first with the indyref, then with conference season, then this by-election.
I expect it will be like this between now and May.
It is apparently the 1378th anniversary of The Battle of al-Qādisiyyah between the Rashidun Caliphate and the Sasanian Empire, which resulted in the Islamic conquest of Persia. How might history have turned had things gone the other way?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_al-Qādisiyyah
I had at least heard of the Sasanian Empire before looking at that page, which is something.
Also the anniversary of the opening of the Council of Clermont which ended with the call to the first Crusade.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/19/cabinet-secretary-david-cameron-balls-dominic-cummings-jeremy-heywood